#36 is the best 2 digit number and possibly my favorite overall

[gumy-shark]

things heating up in the number fandom on the wisp discord tonight

[nbatrades]

Celtics & Nets Swap First Rounders MarShon Brooks & JaJuan Johnson

On June 23rd, 2011, the New Jersey Nets traded the draft rights of forward JaJuan Johnson and a 2014 second round draft pick (Russ Smith) to the Boston Celtics for the draft rights of guard MarShon Brooks.

For the 2011 NBA Draft, the Boston Celtics held the 25th pick. With an aging veteran core, the Celtics were looking to add some youth. The New Jersey Nets were selecting 27th after acquiring that pick in a deal with the Lakers built around Sasha Vujacic and Joe Smith. 

Boston and New Jersey agreed to a trade where the Celtics moved back two spots and received a 2014 second round pick for their troubles. Boston picked for New Jersey and selected guard MarShon Brooks from Providence. The Nets in turn selected for the Celtics and picked up Purdue forward JaJuan Johnson 27th. Boston also drafted Johnson’s teammate at Purdue, E’Twaun Moore with the 55th selection.

Johnson had been on Boston’s short list of potential first round choices (via ESPN Boston):

“Celtics coach Doc Rivers admitted the team had honed in on three players in the first round: Johnson, Boston College's Reggie Jackson and Marquette's Jimmy Butler. When Jackson got hooked by the Oklahoma City Thunder at No. 24, the Celtics elected to move down, but were pleased to see Johnson available at that point.”

Johnson did not get a chance to play in Summer League for Boston since the 2011 NBA Lockout occurred. He joined a Boston core that was already deep in their frontline with Kevin Garnett, Brandon Bass, Jermaine O’Neal and Chris Wilcox. Johnson saw limited time during his rookie season as he played in just 36 of 66 possible games. The Purdue product put up 3.2 PPG and 1.6 RPG in 8.3 MPG.

With a height of 6′10″ and a wingspan of 7′2″, Johnson showcased his athleticism on occasion with dunks and blocks. Unfortunately, those moments were few and far between. 

According to Basketball Reference, 30.6% of Johnson’s total field goal attempts came from 16-feet to just inside the three-point arc. He shot a horrific 29.7% on those shots. Johnson was also 13th among all players that played in at least 33 games in percentage of points that come from midrange (40.4%) according to the NBA Stats page.

Boston’s season began with numerous streaks. They lost their first three games, won the following three contests and then lost five in a row. They were 15-17 at one point, but went 24-10 over the final 34 games to finish fifth in the last at 39-27.

In the postseason, the Celtics beat the Hawks in the first round 4-2. They alternated wins with the Philadelphia 76ers in the Semifinals and ended up winning in seven games. The Conference Finals saw Boston face the Miami Heat. 

Miami took the first two games, before Boston strung together three consecutive victories. Facing a 3-2 series deficit, Miami won the final two games to eliminate Boston. Johnson did not play in the postseason for the Celtics.

The summer of 2012 saw Johnson play in NBA Summer League with Boston. He played in 7 games with the Celtics in Orlando and Las Vegas (8.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 1.6 BPG) when he was traded to the Houston Rockets in a four-player trade built around guard Courtney Lee. Since Boston had lost guard Ray Allen to the Miami Heat in free agency, the team was in need of a starting two-guard during the free agency period. 

MarShon Brooks joined a Nets team looking to rebuild around recent acquisition Deron Williams. Lacking a shooting guard with an ability to create scoring opportunities, Brooks fit the bill. The rookie guard did not play in 2011 Summer League due to the lockout.

Nine games into his rookie season, Brooks took over the starting two-guard spot from Anthony Morrow. Outside of a stretch that he missed with a fractured pinky toe on his right foot, Brooks kept the starting spot for the rest of the season. He participated in 56 games (47 starts) and posted 12.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.3 APG and 0.9 SPG in 29.4 MPG. For his efforts, Brooks made the NBA All-Rookie second team.

The Nets lost 9 of their first 11 games and never recovered. They were 8-23 after 31 games, but their play improved. New Jersey went 14-21 over their final 35 games to finish 12th in the East at 22-44.

Brooks played in the 2012 Summer League for the Nets in Orlando and managed 17.0 PPG on 39.3% shooting and 4.2 APG in 31.0 MPG. The 2012 offseason was a year of transition for the Nets. 

They officially moved from New Jersey to Brooklyn, re-signed Deron Williams to a max contract, and acquired All-Star Joe Johnson from the Atlanta Hawks. Now the team was stocked with a nucleus of All-Stars in Williams, Johnson and Gerald Wallace. Add center Brook Lopez to that group and the Nets would be in place to compete for a playoff spot for the first time since 2007.

There was excitement and anticipation for the Nets with an improved roster, a relocation and rebranding playing big factors in raised expectations. Brooklyn won 11 of their first 15 games, but went 3-10 after. It was during that time, coach Avery Johnson was fired and replaced by assistant P.J. Carlesimo on an interim basis. 

Brooklyn found a way to get back on track and finished the season fourth in the East with a 49-33 record. Brooks’ role decreased dramatically with the presence of Joe Johnson and C.J. Watson. With his defense questioned publicly, Brooks couldn’t find his way out of Johnson and Carlesimo’s respective doghouses. The second year guard amassed 5.4 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 1.0 APG and 0.5 SPG in 73 contests and 12.5 MPG.

The Nets had a tough first round opponent in the fifth-seeded Chicago Bulls. Brooklyn took Game One 106-89 in Brooklyn. The Bulls won the next three games in the series. This included a highly contested triple-overtime victory in Game Four. 

Brooklyn won the next two games to even the series 3-3. Despite homecourt advantage in the final game, Brooklyn lost the series finale 99-93. Brooks had his number called in every game of the first round, but he only received double digits in minutes in one game. Overall, he only averaged 5.7 MPG and 1.1 PPG.

After the disappointing series loss, the Nets made a blockbuster move to contend for a championship. They dealt an unhappy Brooks, four other players, three first round picks and gave Boston the right to swap first rounders in 2017 for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Jason Terry, D.J. White and a conditional second rounder.

Brooks ended his time with the Nets with averages of 8.5 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.6 APG and 0.7 SPG in 129 games. He shot 44% from the field, 30% from three and 75% from the free-throw line.

The 2014 second round pick acquired in this deal was traded twice two years later in the 2013 draft. First, Boston sent the pick to the Dallas Mavericks along with another second rounder and the rights to center Lucas Nogueira for the rights to Gonzaga big man Kelly Olynyk.

Next, Dallas sent the pick to the Philadelphia 76ers for the rights to swingman Ricky Ledo on the same day. The following year, the 76ers selected guard Russ Smith from Louisville with the 47th pick of the 2014 draft and subsequently traded his rights to the New Orleans Pelicans for the draft rights to Pelicans 2013 second round selection Pierre Jackson.

JaJuan Johnson on joining the Celtics (via CBS Boston):

“I was just really excited to have the opportunity to play alongside those veteran guys.”

On what he can bring:

“I can bring length, athleticism. Just my ability to run down the floor, knock down shots, rebounding; I definitely think I can bring a lot to the team.”

Getting the chance to play with Kevin Garnett:

“It’s going to be huge for me. Growing up he was definitely one of my favorite players. Just having the opportunity to play alongside him and learn from his is going to be big for me. I’ll definitely listen to him, if he tells me something I’ll do my best to execute what he’s saying. I don’t want him to shut me down.”

On getting to play with college teammate E’Twaun Moore:

“I was just really excited. Just to have someone you’re familiar with, you’re comfortable with go through this process with you makes it easier.”

MarShon Brooks on joining the Nets (via ESPN New York):

“I'm very excited to play for this organization. I know they have good management and have made good decisions in the past year. I'm looking forward to it.”

On having to adjust to the NBA (via CBS New York):

“But I’ve played mostly against small forwards in college. I’m looking forward to facing guys my own size. I know I have to be ready to go, because no one knows when the current situation will be over. Right now, I’m a little scared, because I don’t know how I’m going to handle going up against NBA guys in NBA workouts.”

Being a Jersey boy:

“I always visited my grandmother in Long Branch and remember playing basketball at Monmouth (University) when I was young. So, I’m a Jersey boy at heart.”

On joining the Nets:

“I’m excited to be here and I know I’m going to get a chance to play right away. I can provide energy, because I have a lot of energy and I can score. I’m a scorer who can shoot. I get to the rim better than most. (But) I need to improve my shooting.”

Why he led the Big East in scoring the previous season:

“I was one of the only scorers because I had such a young team. All these numbers I was putting up was with two and three people on me.”

On playing with Deron Williams:

“He’s going to make life easier for me. I look forward to getting on the floor with him.”

On shooting being a weakness (via Newark Star-Ledger):

“Shooting definitely is not my strength. I think I get to the rim a little better than most shooting guards.”

On competing with Anthony Morrow for minutes:

“I was a skinny kid; he was a skinny kid. I was the best player on my team. He was the best player for Georgia Tech. We kind of clicked. It’s kind of weird to be in this situation fighting for minutes.”

Boston Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge on acquiring two Purdue players in Johnson and E’Twaun Moore (via ESPN Boston):

“Two really good, productive college players. Mature kids, great character and attitude. We got some shooting, we got some length, and I think they're a good fit for us.”

On Johnson:

“JaJuan, he has good length, he's a good all-around player. He's light in the hips, but he's long and he's athletic, and he can score."

On picking two players from Purdue in Johnson and Moore:

“They were the best guys on the board for us when we were drafting. I didn’t even realize that we were picking two kids from Purdue until, actually, Doc was on the phone with JaJuan, and just heard that we drafted E'Twaun and I think that made him more excited than the fact that he was drafted. That was just a pure coincidence.”

Why he drafted both Moore and Johnson (via CBS Boston):

These guys have both improved a lot over their college careers years. They’ve played in some very big games, some hostile environments. They’ve been ranked very high and expected to win. They’ve been through a lot and I think that can only help.”

On the thought process going into the draft (via Boston Globe):

“This year we went in with the idea that if a good opportunity came to move out of the draft, depending on who’s available in the draft, [we’d take it]. But when JaJuan was available, we really wanted to stay. He was a guy we had rated pretty high and we had targeted from the beginning.”

New Jersey Nets general manager Billy King on acquiring Brooks (via ESPN New York):

“We tried to trade up to get him even higher than 25. But fortunately, we were able to get our guy.”

On Brooks:

“He's a scorer. He's proven. He doesn't have to play right away.”

On having enough information despite Brooks not coming in for a workout:

“We had all the information we needed. We felt comfortable.”

Feeling that Brooks has a chance to start at the two-guard position:

“That's why we're bringing him in. He's a basketball player that knows how to put the ball in the hole and do a lot of things well on the court, and we were surprised and shocked that he was there.”

Celtics head coach Doc Rivers on acquiring Johnson (via ESPN Boston):

“I like it. Big 10 Player of the Year, athletic, can shoot -- I like it a lot. We didn't think he'd be there and he was.

“[Johnson can] pick-and-pop, he's a terrific shooter for his size and [is] extremely athletic. Obviously, he rebounded well in college which you hope translates over. But we've proven we can get bigs shots and, so we can get him shots and he'll make them. The defensive part, he comes from a great program, he's a high-character kid, and at [No. 27], that's what you hope for.”

On Johnson having some similarities to Kevin Garnett:

“They're very similar -- he's not Kevin Garnett -- don't write it anybody. But they are [similar]. Same body type. At the same time in their lives, he's probably a better shooter, and Kevin became a great shooter. So there's a lot of upside things with him.”

On what the team was trying to do in the draft:

“We tried to do a lot of things. I think everyone's projecting next year's draft to be a tremendous draft, and we're still working to see if we can get more picks there. But he was one of the guys we had on the board that if he was around we wanted that guy.”

On Johnson’s upside (via Boston Globe):

“Even though he’s a four-year player, we still like his upside. He slipped to us and I think you’ve got to put him on the floor; I can’t tell you if he’s gonna help or not but I think he’ll be an NBA player and a good one. It may take him some time and it may not.”

Nets head coach Avery Johnson on acquiring a shooting guard in Brooks (via ESPN New York):

“We needed to get more athletic at the 2 position. We feel he can help us cause more turnovers and get more fast-break points. We feel we're improved in both of those areas. In Deron (Williams), Marshon and (Anthony) Morrow, with those three guys at the 1 and 2 along with (Jordan) Farmar and Sundiata (Gaines), we feel we have a lot of depth.”

Image Credit:

JaJuan Johnson: via Getty Images/Brian Babineau

MarShon Brooks: via nbadraft.net

[awesomecolorfulcollectorwombat]

Run, Forrest, Run

New Post has been published on http://delphi4arab.com/run-forrest-run/

Run, Forrest, Run

One of my favorite movies of all-time is “Forrest Gump,” and if you’ve seen the movie, I am sure you can remember how Forrest escapes the bullies chasing him, revealing his speed. Forrest’s friend, Jenny Curran, was trying to help and to warn of the bullies chasing him, she warned, “Run, Forrest, Run“.

That’s precisely why I used the title to my article today, I want to provide a harbinger for investors and heed caution for shareholders (and prospective shareholders) of Washington Prime (WPG).

Photo Source

Before getting started, let me explain the reasoning behind my article: CBL Properties (CBL) and WPG are yielding double-digits, and when I see yields in excess of 10%, I am cautious.

A few days ago, I wrote on CBL and in that article I explained, “I’m downgrading CBL to a Strong Sell“, and recently Michael Boyd explained that “For the common equity to be worth $0, the portfolio would have to trade at a blended 12% cap rate.”

I’m astonished to see the number of articles on Seeking Alpha where writers are suggesting CBL as a BUY (speculative or not) after a dividend cut, let alone, multiple dividend cuts.

For CBL, my STRONG SELL, is the best way I can describe the shares of the company. It’s my job, as an analyst, to steer investors to safety, and I would be remiss to provide readers and investors with any rating other than that.

The crux of the issue really boils down to the company’s ability to manage its spending level and dividend distribution level, and if you are not addressing these with the worst case in mind, you aren’t truly an investor, you are a speculator.

Washington Prime Is “Grinding It Out”

First off, I want to give credit, when credit is due.

Washington Prime is doing a good job at managing its portfolio risk. For example, since 2014 the company has had 2.3MSF (nearly 10% of inline space) “succumb to the black cloaked, scythe wielding, grim reaper known as bankruptcy” (CEO’s words from Investor Presentation), and in spite of this the company has “evidenced minimal variance as it relates to operating metrics”. Between 2014 and 2018, comparable occupancy decreased by less than 200 basis points:

Furthermore, Washington Prime has leased over 2.7 million square feet as of August 31 (includes anchor and office space, as well as leases, signed post-closing period). Year-to-date, leasing continues to be robust with total leasing volume for the portfolio totaling over 2.7 million square feet through August 31.

In Q2-18 the company’s occupancy on a portfolio basis was flat with both Tier 1 (92.8%) and Open Air (95.1%). Also, in-line sales per square foot for both Tier 1 and Tier 2 assets, which in Q1-18 exhibited their highest year-over-year growth over the previous five quarters, continues to improve with an overall 50 basis points increase year-over-year to $377.

So in the context of “grinding it out”, I think it’s important to recognize Washington Prime’s management team for leasing space and managing the “black cloaked, scythe wielding, grim reaper known as bankruptcy”.

The Big Elephant in the Room

Washington Prime owns 109 assets comprised of 60 million square feet:

Redevelopment and resultant adaptive reuse is one of Washington Prime’s “most intriguing value propositions”. In 2017 the company allocated $87 million to redevelopment with plans to allocate $100 to $125 million to redevelopment in 2018. As of JUN 30 2018, redevelopment includes 43 projects underway ranging from between $1.0M and $60M (with an estimated average ROIC is ~10.0%). The company has allocated nearly 90% of redevelopment capital to Open Air and Tier One assets since the beginning of 2016.

Currently Washington Prime has 28 department store boxes in the Tier One and Open Air portfolios which the company believes will need to be repositioned. This includes Sears (NASDAQ:SHLD) (other than those owned by Seritage) and Bon-Ton Stores (NASDAQ:BONT).

Of the 28 locations, Washington Prime owns all but three spaces and is currently in various stages of active planning and negotiations or commitments to replace or redevelop 24 of these locations.

To put this into perspective, revenue derived from the 28 boxes equates to only 1.7% of total annualized revenue for the combined Tier One and OpenAir portfolios. Washington Prime estimates that its share of additional capital investment will be approximately $300 to $350 million to transition this real estate “with a three-to-five-year investment horizon”.

But wait? What if Sears goes away sooner?

As I said earlier, before jumping on the mouth-watering 13.7% dividend yield, shouldn’t the investor consider the effects if Sears goes under?

As you can see, Washington Prime has 13 Sears stores and 36 JC Penney stores, and in the likely event of Sears filling bankruptcy, Washington Prime will not have a “three-to-five-year investment horizon”.

And remember, it’s not just the 28 departments stores and $300 to $350 million of capital to be invested, but the “intrinsic volatility within the Tier Two portfolio”. As the company points out, “these assets are subject to a much higher risk-adjusted ROIC threshold” before the company “would even consider allocating a marginal unit”.

Again, I will point out that Washington Prime’s management team has done a good job disposing of the Tier Two assets, the company has sold to third parties or gave back to lenders 13 assets during the previous 24 months. The Tier Two assets now represent around 10% of core NOI, compared to 25% two years ago.

Run, Forrest, Run

So why am I applauding Washington Prime for “grinding it out” while simultaneously voicing my “Run, Forrest, Run” harbinger?

As noted above, the double-digit yield suggests Washington Prime is a risky trade, and the earnings multiple validates the danger.

Source: Rhino Real Estate Advisors

Given the tools that Washington Prime has today, I believe management is doing a good job; however, my concern is what management does when Sears files bankruptcy? I am fairly confident that the shares have not yet priced in that possibility or the likely notion of a dividend cut…

In Q2-18 Washington Prime reported FFO per share of $0.37 and reaffirmed year adjusted FFO guidance of $1.48-$1.56 per share.

Keep in mind, Washington Prime has maintained a $.25 per square quarterly dividend since listing shares, and the big difference between FFO and AFFO is that the AFFO metric subtracts (from FFO) improvements such as tenant allowances.

So, many analysts and some companies began to report “Adjusted Funds from Operations” (or AFFO). The biggest change by far that AFFO makes to FFO is to subtract recurring capital expenditures. Since AFFO is designed to be a closer proxy for actual normalized cash flows per share, a common computation of AFFO might appear as follows:

FFO – Straight Lined Rents – Recurring CapEx + Equity-Based Compensation + Lease Intangibles + Deferred Financing Cost

In a recent article, PendragonY explains that “management has plans to spend as much as $205 million on redevelopment and other capital projects. I think it’s reasonable to estimate that $100 million or so of those funds will come out of operational cash flow.” He is essentially providing us with a proxy for Washington’ Prime’s cash flow per share:

Source: PendragonY

Simply out: PendragonY is suggesting that after $250 million redevelopment costs, Washington Prime’s dividend coverage will be just over 100%. Keep in mind, the company plans to spend $300 to $350 million on 28 department store retrofits over the next three-to-five years and plans to allocate $100 to $125 million to redevelopment in 2018.

Washington Prime has approximately $440 million of current available liquidity when considering cash on hand and capacity on the credit facility (excludes another $44 million of proceeds from the remaining Four Corners’ outparcel transactions and $30 to $35 million from planned mortgage financing, which collectively will put the company in a position to have over a $0.5 billion of liquidity).

Again, management has done a very good job of allocating capital – along with free cash flow after payment of the dividend, the company has ample capacity for its current redevelopment pipeline. However, if Sears files bankruptcy, Washington Prime will be forced to cut its dividend, and I do not believe that this has been priced in yet.

In the words of Forrest Gump, “Stupid is as stupid does” and while I certainly recognize that there’s money to be made investing in shares on Washington Prime, I believe strongly that there is considerable downside ahead. I’m downgrading shares in Washington Prime to a STRONG SELL, based solely on the lack of dividend safety. And I’ll conclude this article with quote from Forrest, “That’s all I have to say about that.”

STAY TUNED for the Spooky REIT List in October. Boo!

Author’s note: Brad Thomas is a Wall Street writer, and that means he is not always right with his predictions or recommendations. That also applies to his grammar. Please excuse any typos, and be assured that he will do his best to correct any errors if they are overlooked.

Finally, this article is free, and the sole purpose for writing it is to assist with research, while also providing a forum for second-level thinking.

Source: FAST Graphs and WPG Investor Presentation.

Brad Thomas is one of the most read authors on Seeking Alpha (based on page-views), and over the years, he has developed a trusted brand in the REIT sector. His articles generate significant traffic (around 500,000 views monthly) and he has thousands of satisfied customers who rely on his expertise.

Marketplace subscribers have access to a growing list of services, including weekly property sector updates and weekly Buy/Strong Buy/Hold/Sell (and soon Strong Sell) recommendations. Also, we are now providing daily early morning REIT recaps including breaking news across the entire REIT universe.

For new subscribers, we will include a free signed copy of The Intelligent REIT Investor. Act now!

Disclosure: I am/we are long ACC, AVB, BHR, BPY, BRX, BXMT, CCI, CIO, CLDT, CONE, CORR, CTRE, CXP, CUBE, DEA, DLR, DOC, EPR, EQIX, ESS, EXR, FRT, GDS, GEO, GMRE, GPT, HASI, HT, HTA, INN, IRET, IRM, JCAP, KIM, KREF, KRG, LADR, LAND, LMRK, LTC, MNR, MPW, NNN, NXRT, O, OFC, OHI, OUT, PEB, PEI, PK, PSB, PTTTS, QTS, REG, RHP, RLJ, ROIC, SBRA, SKT, SPG, SRC, STAG, STOR, TCO, TRTX, UBA, UMH, UNIT, VER, VICI, VNO, VNQ, VTR, WPC.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

[junker-town]

ULM might have the Sun Belt’s best offense. Shootouts, ahoy!

Matt Viator’s third season in Monroe could include a bowl bid if the defense improves from horrible to simply bad.

I’ve made it pretty clear through the years that I admire both of the Sun Belt’s Louisiana schools. In the seven seasons that I have been writing full-time for SB Nation, ULM and UL Lafayette have provided three of my favorite college football moments. In order:

1. The Ragin’ Cajuns’ 2011 New Orleans Bowl win

2. The Warhawks’ 2012 comeback win over Arkansas

The underdog masterpiece.

3. The two-QB formation

This series of moments defined both programs and showed that there is potential for excitement and innovation even in the lower-revenue pockets of FBS.

They also all happened more than five years ago. The Cajuns and Warhawks won a combined 17 games in 2012, a remarkable accomplishment. But that total fell to 15 in 2013, 13 in 2014, and six in 2015. Todd Berry, ULM’s turnaround master, was looking for a new job by 2016. Mark Hudspeth, engineer of four straight nine-win seasons at UL Lafayette from 2011-14, was dismissed a couple of months ago.

I say it often (in fact, I said it in this week’s UL Lafayette preview as well): hard jobs remain hard. You are consistently swimming upstream and fighting a current while much of FBS swims on a horizontal plane. That makes me admire those who will take on such a project.

ULM is, in particular, one of the most difficult jobs in FBS, and Matt Viator, winner of 78 games at Nicholls State (also in Louisiana), took it on in 2016. In his first eight games, he went just 2-6 with wins over only Southern U. and Texas State, the worst team in FBS that year. ULM averaged 22.8 points per game and allowed 42.4.

Since then? Progress ... on one side of the ball. The Warhawks scored a combined 79 points in late-2016 wins over South Alabama and Georgia State, and they averaged 34 points per game in 2017, 42 in conference play.

They also only went 4-4 in conference play and 4-8 overall. You’ve got to stop somebody occasionally, too.

In 2018, ULM faces an almost exaggerated version of 2017. The Warhawks return almost everyone from an offense that surged to 17th in Off. S&P+. Quarterback Caleb Evans threw for nearly 3,000 yards and, sans sacks, rushed for nearly 700. Receivers Marcus Green and RJ Turner were both efficient (54 percent success rate) and explosive (16.3 yards per catch). The top five running backs and six linemen with starting experience also return. Offensive coordinator Matt Kubik’s offense could be the best in the conference this year.

Photo by Loren Orr/Getty Images

Matt Viator

Will the defense be anything other than the worst? ULM managed to fall from 126th to 129th in Def. S&P+; that’s a long road from respectability.

Injuries played a role, sure. Losing potential starting end Shaquille Warren for the year and getting only four games from starting safety Nick Ingram didn’t help. Defensive coordinator Mike Collins played a line loaded with freshmen and sophomores and tried every possible combination of personnel in the back. Nothing worked. ULM was awful against both run (127th in Rushing S&P+) and pass (116th in Passing S&P+).

Eight starters return, though the three lost starters were among ULM’s top five havoc guys. Still, experience and good health should generate improvement. But is there enough pure talent? Is it all on the offensive side of the ball?

Though the record didn’t change, Viator engineered clear, obvious improvement in his second season in Monroe. With this offense, he can probably do it again in 2018. The “how high” and “how long” questions can wait, I guess.

Offense

Perhaps the most impressive thing about ULM’s offensive improvement is that it happened with almost no help from the run game. Alabama transfer Derrick Gore averaged a paltry 3.6 yards per carry; he has his best games against two of the better opponents on the schedule (36 carries for 199 yards against Southern Miss and Appalachian State) and averaged 3 yards per carry against everybody else.

Gore’s presence on the first string was a confusing one, as Ben Luckett, ULM’s leading rusher in 2016, averaged nearly 7 yards per carry in a backup role. His marginal efficiency was nearly 13 percentage points higher than Gore’s, and even at 227 pounds, he had some burst in the open field.

Both are back, and they could get pushed by a pair of three-star redshirt freshmen, Jakyle Holmes and Javin Myers. They’ll also be running behind a pretty burly line. Six players have combined for 72 career starts up front and average a cool 6’4, 317 between them. (And that says nothing of backups like 330-pound Brandon Jones, 354-pound Joq Savage, or 321-pound Dakota Torbert.

The lack of cumulative production from the running backs, though, spells out just how impressive Caleb Evans was. A backup as a freshman in 2016, Evans overtook Garrett Smith (who has since transferred) in the starting lineup and never looked back. Not including sacks, he carried 10 times per game at 5.8 yards per carry, and he completed 61 percent of his passes with a marginal efficiency near of plus-8.5 percent (meaning, he was 8.5 percent more efficient than the national average based on down, distance, and field position).

Evans took minimal sacks, and he spread the ball around like crazy. Sure, he favored the trio of Marcus Green, Brian Williams, and RJ Turner, but nine different players were targeted at least once per game. And as iffy as Gore was between the tackles, he was great catching passes out of the backfield: 19 targets, 16 catches, 272 yards. Since Luckett wasn’t much of a receiving threat at all, that tells you pretty clearly why Gore was in the game.

Photo by Scott Donaldson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Marcus Green

Of those nine primary targets, only Williams is gone. The 5’8 Green, who caught 25 balls for 392 yards and two touchdowns during a season-ending four-game gauntlet against the defenses of Appalachian State, Auburn, Arkansas State, and Florida State, is all but assured of all-conference honors this year.

Turner had 16 catches of his own for 315 yards and four scores in that four-game stretch; he’s back as well. That’s a dynamite combination, and we haven’t yet talked about the potential efficiency supplement of not only Gore, but also players like senior wideouts D’Marius Gillespie and Markus McCray or tight ends Josh Pederson and Sloan Spiller.

This is a thrilling passing game, one that was easily able to overcome whatever second-and-8 or third-and-7 situations the run game set up for it. And in theory, experience and better depth could make those second-and-6s or third-and-4s. I expect a lot from this offense in 2018.

Defense

On two occasions in 2017, ULM scored at least 37 points and lost by double digits — 47-37 to Georgia State and 67-50 to Arkansas State. All they had to do was go unbeaten when scoring a boatload of points, and they’d have been bowl eligible. Instead, they put together a pretty nasty combination of inefficiency and an inability to prevent big plays:

Woof.

There weren’t enough injuries to justify such a poor performance, but injury did help to create a deep pool of experience heading into 2018. Add in four JUCO transfers (two linemen, two defensive backs), and a few interesting freshmen, and you’ve at least got yourself some options.

As a thought experiment if nothing else, here are the nicest things I can say about ULM’s returning defensive personnel:

Sophomore linemen Mason Husmann (nose tackle) and Kerry Starks (end) have a lot of potential. They were undersized last year at 270 and 220 pounds, respectively, and that does obvious things to your run defense, but they combined for 11 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks for a defense desperate for havoc, and they each took part in at least eight run stuffs (stops at or behind the line). When Starks was involved in a play, it averaged 1.0 yards per play. And if nothing else, these guys will have spent the entire offseason going against ULM’s extremely meaty offensive line, so they’ll be used to fighting bigger guys.

David Griffith is a legitimate play-maker at weakside linebacker. He logged eight TFLs, took part in 14 run stuffs, and held opponents to minus-3.7 marginal efficiency as ULM’s second-leading tackler. Good things, all, and all of his LB battery mates return alongside him, including junior Cortez Sisco, Jr. (4 TFLs).

There are lots of experienced options at safety. Ingram had 2.5 TFLs and four passes defensed in 2016, and seniors Wesley Thompson and Rhoy Williams were instrumental in making sure that ULM’s explosiveness numbers weren’t even worse. Plus, another senior, Collin Turner, recorded five passes defensed (third on the team) in just six games, and JUCO safeties Cal Kee III and Tyler Glass bring good size to the table.

Sophomore corners Kenderick Marbles and Corey Straughter survived. A lot was asked of them as freshmen, and Straughter managed five passes defensed while, yes, also failing a few tests. So did senior JJ Dallas, who had five PDs in just seven games.

Again, options, options, options. Nine of the 10 linemen are back (plus end Shaquille Warren), and each of the top five linebackers return. Plus, of the 17 defensive backs to record at least three tackles, 15 are scheduled to return. That’s depth that simply didn’t previously exist.

Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

Kenderick Marbles

Was I persuasive? Did I talk you into massive improvement? Probably not. This is still an extremely undersized defense, and while experience and continuity will help — I’d be surprise if this defense didn’t improve into at least the 100s in Def. S&P+ — there are plenty of reasons to wonder about the pure talent level here.

Special Teams

Special teams was mostly helpful for ULM last year. Marcus Green is an unbelievable kick returner (32.4 yard average, four touchdowns) who creates a bit of a philosophical dilemma for opponents — can you kick it through the end zone? Should you kick toward the sideline and risk it going out of bounds? He helped to create a positive field position margin for ULM despite awful defensive inefficiency.

Beyond him, the unit is fine. Harrison Heim averaged nearly 42 yards per punt, Craig Ford made most of his shorter field goals (and went 2-for-3 on longer ones), and Green was at least decent in punt returns. The Warhawks need a new kickoffs guy, but Green alone makes this unit a net plus.

2018 outlook

2018 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 1-Sep SE Louisiana NR 15.0 81% 8-Sep at Southern Miss 94 -5.6 37% 15-Sep at Texas A&M 24 -22.6 10% 6-Oct at Ole Miss 25 -22.5 10% TBD Georgia Southern 106 1.9 54% TBD Texas State 123 8.0 68% TBD Troy 78 -5.4 38% TBD UL-Lafayette 121 6.7 65% TBD at Arkansas State 66 -13.0 23% TBD at Coastal Carolina 118 0.5 51% TBD at Georgia State 113 -0.5 49% TBD at South Alabama 109 -2.0 45%

Projected S&P+ Rk 107 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 28 / 128 Projected wins 5.3 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -12.5 (121) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 102 / 115 2017 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -4 / -4.5 2017 TO Luck/Game +0.2 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 78% (83%, 73%) 2017 Second-order wins (difference) 3.9 (0.1)

Part of what makes the ULM job so hard is scheduling. For cash flow, the Warhawks almost always load up on payout games in non-conference play, and trips to Southern Miss, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss should ensure a 1-3 record in that portion of the schedule (though they could scare a green Southern Miss team in Week 2).

That means you probably have to go 5-3 in Sun Belt play to reach bowl eligibility. That might be tough, but the Hawks will have a chance. S&P+ projects them as healthy favorites in two games (Texas State and UL Lafayette) and forecasts tossups in four others. Win three of four tossups or pull an upset elsewhere, and there you go.

The margin for error is slim, but this offense should be able to hang with just about anybody. It deserves a bowl, and it deserves a defense that makes at least a stop or two more per game. Caleb Evans and Marcus Green are legitimate stars you should try to watch.

Viator is doing what he can, and the upside on one side of the ball is undeniable, even if he doesn’t break out any two-QB formations. He’s got an intriguing rebuild underway. Let’s see how far he can take it.

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