Tumgik
#2020 Audi Q1 Prices
mynewdrive-blog · 6 years
Text
2020 Audi Q1 Prices, Capability, and Competitors
2020 Audi Q1 Prices, Capability, and Competitors
Audi has published the preview of the future 2020 Audi Q1concept. It was merely an issue of time when will Audi introduce the smaller sized crossover compared to Q3. So, it is Q1 and also the subcompact SUV shows up as the 2020 year version. The design is most likely to show up in the United States and even Canada, and also this SUV will be the primary competitor to BMW X1. Measurements of the…
View On WordPress
0 notes
myfuturecarstrucks · 2 years
Text
2024 Audi Q3 RS Price and Release Date
2024 Audi Q3 RS Price and Release Date
2024 Audi Q3 RS. The first mid-cycle update of the smallest Audi crossover is scheduled for 2022. The 2024 Audi Q3 will be unchanged until then. The company launched the current version last year, a model for 2020 is also coming with minor modifications. We can assume that the German carmaker is paying a lot more attention to new arrivals, such as Q1 and Q8. The 2024 Audi Q3 will be on par with…
Tumblr media
View On WordPress
0 notes
rakeshreddym · 4 years
Text
07/08/2020 News Alerts about Cars Industry
07/08/2020 News Alerts about Cars Industry
Tumblr media
1,200-HP Lamborghini Huracan Is Pure Madness:
Lamborghini is on a hot streak: we've recently revealed what the hyper SCV12 will look like without all the camouflage, and there's even a video of what it sounds like. The Sian Roadster could also be making an appearance this week.
Source: https://carbuzz.com/news/1200-hp-lamborghini-huracan-is-pure-madness
Lotus Plans To Obliterate The Bugatti Chiron's 12.4-Second 0-186 MPH Time:
The Lotus Evija, the 2,000-horsepower electric flagship that will pioneer the next-generation of sports cars from the automaker, is not targeting low-speed acceleration. Lotus wants its car to beat the supercars where they thrive—closing in on 200 mph as fast as possible.
Pick of the Day: 1978 Porsche 930 Turbo in a rare color combination
Of the first generation of exotic cars, the most reliable and most usable, and the one I had a poster of on my wall while in high school, was the Porsche 930 Turbo. It was the car I most wanted and was to me the ultimate. It was a model derived from Porsche’s racing cars and had the coolest rear spoiler ever.
Source: https://journal.classiccars.com/2020/07/07/pick-of-the-day-1978-porsche-930-turbo-in-a-rare-color-combination/
BMW global vehicle deliveries down by 23 pct in H1
BERLIN, July 7 (Xinhua) -- German car manufacturer BMW announced Tuesday that its global vehicle deliveries, including MINI and Rolls-Royce, dropped by 23 percent year-on-year to a total of 962,575 units in the first half of 2020.
Source: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-07/07/c_139194997.htm
Jaguar Land Rover Moves Forward With Subscription Program
Jaguar Land Rover is dipping its paw into the subscription automobile leasing pool, just as peer Mercedes is climbing out after a trial run, Autoweek reported on Tuesday (July 7).
Subscription models vary, but in general, they allow customers to lease cars for periods of around six months. The arrangement costs more than typical multi-year leases, but drivers get more variety and short-term commitments.
Source: https://www.pymnts.com/subscription-commerce/2020/jaguar-land-rover-moves-forward-with-subscription-program/
Ferrari bring forward car upgrades for Styrian Grand Prix
Ferrari are bringing forward some planned upgrades to their car after a disappointing showing at the season-opening Austrian Grand Prix.
Lead driver Charles Leclerc was runner-up on Sunday, but the car was a second off the pace in qualifying seventh.
Source: https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/53309834
Mercedes-Benz rolls into South San Francisco
South San Francisco officials gave the green light to a new Mercedes-Benz dealership taking over the former Orchard Supply Hardware building and a surrounding shopping center.
Source: https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/mercedes-benz-rolls-into-south-san-francisco/article_d167b2b6-c001-11ea-9328-1bd1e3bff343.html
Audi reveals a sporty version of its upcoming electric Q4 SUV
Audi has unveiled concept renderings of a new “Sportback” version of the Q4 E-Tron electric SUV that it debuted last year. Meant to serve as a smaller and more affordable option to the flagship E-Tron, the Q4s are expected to go on sale in 2021 and will start at around $45,000.
Source: https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/7/21316580/audi-q4-etron-sportback-suv-2021-volkswagen-meb
No economic logic now for diesel cars: Maruti Suzuki
With the party between the prices of petrol and diesel, there is no economic logic for buying running cost, the acquisition cost differential is very high.
Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/auto/news/no-economic-logic-now-for-diesel-cars-maruti-suzuki/articleshow/76830053.cms
Honda Cars India starts production of new City sedan
New Delhi: Honda Cars India Limited (HCIL), on Tuesday has announced that it has commenced production of fifth generation Honda City sedan at the company's Greater Noida plant in Uttar Pradesh.
As the automaker claims, Honda City is one of its most successful cars in India with high brand equity. It was first introduced in India back in January 1998 and later launched as 2nd generation in November 2003. The third generation model came in September 2008, while fourth generation City was launched in January 2014.
Source: https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/passenger-vehicle/cars/honda-cars-india-starts-production-of-new-city-sedan/76528906
Online car buying platform: Hyundai's Click to Buy records 1.5+ million visitors since March
Earlier this year, Hyundai announced the launch of its online car buying platform, Click to Buy, in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. About four months in, Hyundai has shared some rather interesting numbers about the platform and let's just say that this should silence the naysayers. The South Korean automaker shared that its online car sales offering has recorded more than 1.5 million visitors since its launch in March, 2020. In addition to that, the platform has also recorded over 20,000 customer enquiries since then.
Source: https://www.timesnownews.com/auto/car-news/article/online-car-buying-platform-hyundais-click-to-buy-records-1-5-million-visitors-since-march/617478
TATA MOTORS REGISTERED DOMESTIC SALES OF 23,845 UNITS IN Q1 FY21
Tata Motors Limited today announced its sales in the domestic & international market, for Q1 FY21, which stood at 25,047 vehicles, compared to 1,37,545 units during Q1 FY20.
Source: http://overdrive.in/news-cars-auto/pressreleases/tata-motors-registered-domestic-sales-of-23845-units-in-q1-fy21/
Toyota’s Hybrid Models Receive A Steep Price Hike In India
Source: https://www.zigwheels.com/news-features/news/toyota-camry-vellfire-prices-hiked-in-india-now-priced-at-rs-3902-lakh-and-rs-8350-lakh-respectively/39062/
VW starts converting another factory for electric car production
After the Zwickau factory, VW has started converting another of its factories from gasoline and diesel vehicle production to electric vehicle production.
Volkswagen has one of the most aggressive electrification plans amongest established automakers.
Source: https://electrek.co/2020/07/06/vw-converting-emden-factory-electric-car-production/
Assam: Automobile sales in Guwahati hit rock bottom
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the Indian economy and completely tipped the scales for all sectors of Indian Industries signaling towards a deep recession.
As the country approaches the end of its first quarter of the Fiscal Year, the current pandemic seems to have magnified pre-existing risks to India’s economic outlook.
Source: https://nenow.in/north-east-news/assam/assam-automobile-sales-in-guwahati-hit-rock-bottom.html
Kia Motors crosses 50,000 unit sales mark for cars with connected features
NEW DELHI: Kia Motors India on Tuesday said it has crossed the 50,000-mark in sales for connected cars within 10 months of its first product launch in the country. The company has surpassed figure of 50,000 activated connected cars on road which includes Seltos and Carnival models, Kia Motors India said in a statement.
Source: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/auto/cars-uvs/kia-motors-crosses-50000-unit-sales-mark-for-cars-with-connected-features/articleshow/76832747.cms?from=mdr
Jaguar Land Rover launches premium car subscription service Pivotal
New Delhi: British luxury carmaker Jaguar Land Rover has announced the launch of the premium car subscription service Pivotal.
As the luxury carmaker claims, with this, both the Jaguar and Land Rover cars will be available for subscription.
Source: https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/passenger-vehicle/cars/jaguar-land-rover-launches-premium-car-subscription-service-pivotal/76781529
Mahindra reveals teaser for small 4-seater electric vehicle Atom
Source: https://www.livemint.com/auto-news/mahindra-reveals-teaser-for-small-4-seater-electric-vehicle-atom-11594099174523.html
Mazda unveils new BT-50, supplied by Isuzu
Mazda Motor Corporation has lifted the veil on its all-new Mazda BT-50 bakkie.
Fully redesigned for the first time in nine years, the new BT-50 is supplied by fellow Japanese manufacturer, Isuzu Motor Limited.
Source: https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/mazda-unveils-new-bt-50-supplied-by-isuzu-2020-07-07
Nissan highlights future plans for India, Africa and the Middle East
Nissan hasn’t launched an exciting new product in India for a while now. Sure, the ‘new’ Kicks gets a powerful engine but it’s still not something the masses would go gaga over. The only other model in their current lineup is the GT-R, and that’s not what you’d call a widely attainable car. Now though, things are about to change. Nissan aims to put a lot more focus towards India, Africa and the Middle East as part of its Global Transformation Plan.
Source: https://www.evoindia.com/news/nissan-highlights-future-plans-for-ami-markets
​Renault Kwid records 3.5 lakh unit sales milestone, new BS6 variant available
NEW DELHI: Renault Kwid, French manufacturer’s flagship offering in India has crossed landmark 3.5 lakh unit sales since its launch.
The company also announced that the Kwid is now more accessible with the RXL variant launched with a BS6 compliant 1.0L powertrain in MT and AMT versions. The new RXL variant will be very competitively priced, at Rs 4.16 lakh (ex-showroom) for the MT and Rs 4.48 (ex-showroom) lakh for the AMT version.
Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/auto/cars/renault-kwid-records-3-5-lakh-unit-sales-milestone-new-bs6-variant-available/articleshow/76810736.cms
2020 Honda City launch on July 15; price, features, specifications, other important details you should know
Honda Cars India has officially announced that the new Honda City will be launched in the country on July 15. The 2020 Honda City will be sold in India alongside the 2019 Honda City. You can book the fifth-generation Honda City from your abode using the Honda from Home online sales platform or by visiting any authorized dealership of the automaker. You can click on this link to read our Honda City 2020 First Drive Review.
Source: https://www.indiatoday.in/auto/latest-auto-news/story/honda-city-2020-launch-on-july-15-check-out-price-features-specifications-other-important-details-1697654-2020-07-06
5 Reasons Why Fiat Wasn’t Successful In India [Video]
Source: https://www.motorbeam.com/fiat-india-story-why-automaker-wasnt-successful/
Volvo Cars recall eight models produced from 2006 to 2018
Eight Volvo car models have been recalled globally over problems with the front seat belt fastening.
A spokesperson for the firm told Belfast Live: "Investigations by Volvo Cars have identified that in very rare cases and under specific circumstances, a flexible steel cable connected to the front seat belts on certain Volvo models produced between 2006 and 2018 may under certain rare circumstances suffer from wear and fatigue over time.
Source: https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/belfast-news/volvo-cars-recall-eight-models-18548932
Lexus unveils new LS luxury sedan, likely to be launched by end of 2020
The new Lexus LS sedan gets the Lexus Teammate, the latest in advanced driving assist technologies, and a new body colour that creates deep shadows and robust highlights.
Source: https://auto.hindustantimes.com/auto/cars/lexus-unveils-the-new-ls-luxury-sedan-likely-to-be-launched-by-end-of-2020-41594097951866.html
How Tesla Delivered Despite Lockdowns
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) said that it sold a total of 90,650 vehicles over Q2 2020, with Model S and X deliveries standing at 10,600 units and Model 3 and Y sales standing at 80,050 units. Although the numbers mark a 5% year-over-year decline, they handily beat market estimates, causing Tesla stock to jump by 8% in Thursday’s trading.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/07/07/how-tesla-delivered-despite-lockdowns/#c150e6660c2d
Rolls-Royce's Boeing 787 engine in new safety alert over cracks
Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc faces a fresh issue with the Trent 1000 turbine that powers Boeing Co. 787 Dreamliner jets, adding to the list of design faults that have plagued the engine since 2016.
Source: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/rolls-royce-s-boeing-787-engine-in-new-safety-alert-over-cracks-1.1461622
Maserati Unveils New Engine Adapted From Formula 1 for MC20 Supercar
Source: https://interestingengineering.com/maserati-unveils-new-engine-adapted-from-formula-1-for-mc20-supercar
Unleashed – Dodge Unveils 3 Fast Cars
Dodge has launched three fast cars that should suit every muscle car buyer’s needs. Each of them packing 700+ bhp!
Source: http://motoringworld.in/car-news/unleashed-dodge-unveils-3-fast-cars/
= 07/08/2020 News Alerts about Cars Industry
0 notes
jobsearchtips02 · 5 years
Text
Low degree of momentary Tesla profitability forward of collapse: Brief vendor
Stanphyl Capital’s letter to traders for the month of November, 2019, discussing the momentary Tesla profitability.
dominickvietor / Pixabay
We stay quick inventory and name choices in Tesla Inc. (TSLA), which I nonetheless take into account to be the largest single inventory bubble on this entire bubble market. The core factors of our Tesla quick thesis are:
Get Our Activist Investing Case Examine!
Get your complete 10-part collection on our in-depth research on activist investing in PDF. Put it aside to your desktop, learn it in your pill, or print it out to learn anyplace! Join under!
Tumblr media
Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and extra
Tesla has no “moat” of any type; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary when it comes to electrical automobile expertise, whereas current automakers—in contrast to Tesla­—have a decades-long “experience moat” of understanding the right way to mass-produce, distribute and repair high-quality automobiles constantly and profitably, in addition to the power to subsidize losses on electrical automobiles with earnings from their typical automobiles. By mid-to-late 2020 Tesla and its terrible stability sheet will return to dropping cash. Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; income was roughly flat sequentially and declined year-over-year whereas unit demand for its automobiles is barely being maintained by way of continuous worth reductions and expiring tax incentives. Elon Musk is a securities fraud-committing pathological liar.
Tesla reported Q3 earnings in October and income for this alleged “growth company” was lots of of thousands and thousands of dollars decrease than the year-ago quarter (U.S. income was down 39%!) and likewise down vs. the earlier quarter, but sequential Tesla profitability unexpectedly flipped from a $408 million GAAP loss in Q2 2019 to a $153 million Q3 revenue (vs. our expectation of a $300 million loss). In final month’s letter I laid out a number of the reason why Q3 would, in actual fact, have proven a multi-hundred-million-dollar loss with out varied accounting video games and unsustainable expense cuts, and in November fund supervisor Jim Chanos laid out a concise case on Twitter why even when one accepts Tesla’s numbers its fairness is value “zero.”
We might also see an analogous low degree of momentary Tesla profitability in This autumn (the one we’re in now) or Q1 of 2020, when in a single or (divided between) each of these quarters Tesla acknowledges roughly $500 million of non-cash (it’s already on the stability sheet) deferred income from its fraudulently named “Full Self-Driving” (the capabilities of which supply nothing of the type). By rolling out varied ineffective and harmful options of this homicidal software program suite, Tesla will declare that prior consumers of this nonsense obtained what they paid for, and can thus run these non-cash earnings by way of its monetary assertion, thereby once more maybe offering this money-losing firm with a fleeting second of minor profitability. As with Q3, these can be non-repeatable one-time good points (or, if you happen to favor, “games”), and later in 2020 the losses will resume.
In the meantime Tesla is barely exhibiting unit supply progress (with declining income) by intensive 2019 worth slashing and fulfilling Mannequin Three backlog in international locations the place deliveries simply started (most notably the UK in Q3 and South Korea in This autumn), and the place EV incentives are about to run out (the Netherlands till year-end). In different phrases, the Tesla “hypergrowth” story is over.
For these of you in search of a resumption of progress from Tesla’s upcoming Mannequin Y, when it’s obtainable in Q2 2020 it’s going to each massively cannibalize gross sales of the Mannequin Three sedan and (by late 2020) face superior competitors from the a lot nicer electrical Audi This autumn e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 and Volkswagen ID Crozz, whereas cheaper and obtainable now are the superb new all-electric Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro, extraordinarily nicely reviewed small crossovers with an EPA vary of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at costs of beneath $30,000 inclusive of the $7500 U.S. tax credit score. In the meantime, the Mannequin Three sedan could have terrific direct “sedan competition” in 2020 from Volvo’s stunning new Polestar 2, the BMW i4 and the premium model of Volkswagen’s ID.Three.
And if you happen to suppose China is the key to the resumption of Tesla’s progress, let’s put that market in perspective: Tesla at present sells round 30,000 Mannequin 3s a yr there and “the story” is that avoiding the 15% tariff and 10% VAT will enable it to promote much more. Nevertheless, the rule of thumb for the elasticity of auto pricing is that each 1% worth minimize leads to a gross sales improve of 1% to 2.four%. If we assume a 2.4x “elasticity multiplier,” domestically produced Mannequin 3s which are 25% cheaper would lead to annual gross sales of 48,000 Mannequin 3s (25% x 2.four = 60% greater than the present 30,000), that means Tesla’s new Chinese language manufacturing unit could be an enormous money-loser as it will be operating at lower than 1/Three of its preliminary 150,000-unit annual capability. Maybe realizing this, Tesla is initially mandating the acquisition of Autopilot, and thus Chinese language-made Mannequin Three will solely be barely cheaper than earlier variations. Though that may considerably enhance per-car profitability and maybe make the manufacturing unit marginally worthwhile, it’s going to assure vastly missed progress targets and it’s “growth” (or extra precisely, the fantasy of progress) that drives Tesla’s inventory worth. And good luck with rising at any worthwhile worth—right here’s an ideal overview of what a dogfight the Chinese language EV market has develop into.
In the meantime, gross sales of Tesla’s highest-margin automobiles (the Fashions S&X) are down by over 30% worldwide this yr, because of cannibalization from the Mannequin Three and the not too long ago launched Audi e-tron and Jaguar I-Tempo, and this gross sales drop is earlier than this winter’s arrival of the Mercedes EQC and completely spectacular Porsche Taycan, with a number of extra electrical Audis, Mercedes and Porsches to comply with, many at beginning costs significantly under these of the high-end Teslas. (See the hyperlinks under for extra particulars.)
And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla launched in November gained’t be any type of “growth engine” both, particularly as if it’s ever constructed it’s going to enter a dogfight of a market.
In the meantime, Tesla has probably the most government departures I’ve ever seen from any firm; right here’s the astounding full record of escapees. These individuals aren’t leaving as a result of issues are going nice (and even passably) at Tesla; somewhat, they’re doubtless leaving as a result of Musk is both an outright criminal or the world’s greatest jerk to work for (or each). May the enterprise (if not the inventory worth) be saved in its current type if he left? Nope, it’s too late.  Even when Musk steps down in favor of somebody who is aware of what he’s doing, rising aggressive components (outlined in nice element under) and Tesla’s stability sheet and big extra liabilities make the corporate too late to “fix” with out main monetary and operational restructuring.
In Could Shopper Stories fully eviscerated the protection of Tesla’s so-called “Autopilot” system; in actual fact, Teslas have way more professional rata (i.e., relative to the quantity bought) lethal incidents than different comparable new luxurious automobiles; right here’s a hyperlink to these which were made public. In the meantime Shopper Report’s annual auto reliability survey ranks Tesla 23rd out of 30 manufacturers and the variety of lawsuits of all kinds towards the corporate continues to escalate– there at the moment are over 800 together with one proving blatant fraud by Musk within the SolarCity buyout (if you wish to be actually entertained, learn his deposition!), an allegation that unsafe door handles precipitated a Tesla driver to burn to demise in his automobile, and proof that the corporate secretly rolled again battery efficiency with out compensating homeowners.
So right here is Tesla’s competitors in automobiles (word: these hyperlinks are frequently up to date)…
Porsche Taycan
Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo
Porsche Macan EV to get Taycan platform and tech
Audi e-tron: Electrical Has Gone Audi 2020 Audi E-Tron Sportback debuts slick new roofline, a bit extra vary
AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (obtainable 2020)
Audi’s This autumn e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021
Audi e-tron compact hatch to steer model’s electrification plans
Audi TT set to morph into all-electric crossover
THE AWARD-WINNING ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I‑PACE
Jaguar Land Rover readies electrical XJ and Vary Rover
Mercedes EQC Electrical SUV Accessible Late 2019
Mercedes EQV Electrical Minivan Revealed – Accessible Early 2020
Mercedes EQB Small SUV to spice up model’s electrical line-up
Mercedes EQS can be constructed along with the S-Class on a brand new devoted electrical platform
Volvo Polestar 2 Arrives early 2020
Volvo XC40 Recharge, a 408-HP Electrical SUV is available in 2020
Volvo XC-90 EV coming in 2022
Volkswagen unveils the ID.Three, its first ‘electric car for the masses’
VW’s EV crossover for U.S. can be known as ID4
VW Group to launch 70 pure electrical automobiles over the following decade
258-Mile Hyundai Kona electrical is offered now for beneath $40,000
239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Accessible Now For Beneath $40,000
Kia Soul (obtainable mid-2019) EV’s Vary Jumps to 243 Miles
Kia Europe to have six pure electrical fashions by 2022
All-Electrical Ford Mustang Mach-E Delivers Energy, Fashion and Freedom for New Technology
Ford, GM rev up electrical pickup vehicles to move off Tesla
Chevrolet Bolt Now Affords 259 Miles of Vary
GM’s Detroit-Hamtramck plant anticipated to construct electrical Escalade, Sierra GM is remodeling Cadillac into an electrical model
Ford to construct two European EVs based mostly on VW’s MEB platform
Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile vary is offered now
Nissan Ariya Electrical SUV Idea Is Destined for Manufacturing
BMW 1 Sequence Electrical Coming As Early As 2021
BMW iX3 electrical crossover goes on sale in 2020
2021 BMW i4 particulars revealed: 80-kWh battery, 530 hp, 373-mile vary
BMW’s 2021 iNEXT Returns In New Teasers Displaying Prototypes Manufacturing
Rivian electrical pickup truck- funded by Amazon, Ford, Cox & others- is on the best way
Renault upgrades Zoe electrical automobile as competitors intensifies
Peugeot 208 to affect Europe’s small-car market
Peugeot to supply EV model of recent 2008 small crossover
Electrical Mini Arrives 2020
Toyota and Subaru Comply with Collectively Develop BEV-dedicated Platform and BEV SUV
Mazda extends MX title to new MX-30 electrical crossover
SEAT will launch 6 electrical and hybrid fashions and develop a brand new platform for electrical autos
Opel sees electrical Corsa as key EV entry
Opel/Vauxhall will launch electrical SUV and van in 2020
Skoda accepting deposits for electrical automobiles
New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020
FCA to speculate $788M to construct new 500 EV in Italy
Maserati to launch electrical sports activities automobile
Bentley Will Supply Hybrid Variations of Each Automobile It Makes and Add an EV by 2025
Lucid Motors closes $1 billion take care of Saudi Arabia to fund electrical automobile manufacturing
Meet the Canoo, a Subscription-Solely EV Pod Coming in 2021
Two new electrical automobiles from Mahindra in India by 2019; International Tesla rival e-car quickly
Former Saab manufacturing unit will get new life constructing solar-powered Sono Sion electrical automobiles
And in China…
VW ramps up China electrical automobile factories, taking intention at Tesla
SAIC Volkswagen to roll out Three MEB-based EV fashions in 2020/2021
JAC-Volkswagen Launch SOL E20X, The first EV from the Joint Enterprise
Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai
Audi will construct This autumn e-tron in China
FAW-Volkswagen’s Foshan plant mentioned to provide e-tron Sportback
FAW Hongqi begins promoting electrical SUV with 400km vary for $32,000
FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electrical fashions by 2025
China’s BYD launches six new electrified autos
Prime of Type
Backside of Type
Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electrical car for the Chinese language market
Mercedes styled Denza X 7-seat electrical SUV to hit market
BAIC Goes Electrical, & Establishes Itself as a Pressure in China’s New Vitality Car Future
BAIC BJEV, Magna able to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV
Daimler to Begin EQC Electrical SUV Manufacturing in China in 2019
Daimler and BMW to cooperate on inexpensive electrical automobile in China
BMW, Nice Wall to construct new China plant for electrical automobiles
Toyota, BYD will collectively develop electrical autos for China
GAC Toyota to make all-electric C-HR
GAC Aion
GAC unveils new NEV offshoot dubbed HYCAN
Chevrolet’s new China-only EV is named the Menlo and it seems good
Buick Rolls Out First Electrical Automobile for China
Normal Motors’ Chinese language Enterprise to Sink $four.Three Billion Into Electrical Autos by 2024
Nissan & Dongfeng to speculate $9.5 billion in China to spice up electrical autos
Dongfeng Peugeot mentioned to roll out three NEV fashions in first-half 2020
Hyundai Motor Remodeling Chongqing Manufacturing unit into Electrical Car Plant
Nio
Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese language arm invests £800m in EV manufacturing
Renault reveals collection city e-SUV Ok-ZE for China
Renault & Brilliance element electrical van lineup for China
Renault varieties China electrical car enterprise with JMCG
Honda Debuts New Everus VE-1 All-Electrical SUV, However Solely For China
Honda to roll out over 20 electrical fashions in China by 2025
Geely launches new electrical automobile model ‘Geometry’ – will launch 10 EVs by 2025
Mazda to roll out China-only electrical autos by 2020
Xpeng Motors sells a number of EV fashions
Changan New Vitality
WM Motors/Weltmeister
Chery
Seres
Byton
Enovate
China’s cute Ora R1 electrical hatch affords an enormous vary for lower than US$9,000
Singulato
JAC Motors releases new product planning, together with many NEVs
Seat to make purely electrical automobiles with JAC VW in China
Iconiq Motors
EV maker Bordrin skips flash, retains real-car focus
Aiways
NEVS launches electric-car output with Saab 9-Three platform in China
Youxia
CHJ Automotive begins to simply accept orders of Main Perfect ONE
Infiniti to launch Chinese language-built EV in 2022
Zotye Auto to roll out 10 plus NEV fashions by 2020
Thunder Energy
Leapmotor
Continental, Didi signal deal on growing EVs for China
Mine Mobility (Thailand)
Right here’s Tesla’s competitors in autonomous driving…
Shopper Stories finds Tesla’s Navigate on Autopilot is much much less competent than a human driver
Navigant Ranks Tesla Final Amongst Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving
Tesla has a self-driving technique different firms deserted years in the past
Waymo and Lyft associate to scale self-driving robotaxi service in Phoenix
Jaguar and Waymo announce an electrical, absolutely autonomous automobile
Renault, Nissan associate with Waymo for self-driving autos
Fiat Chrysler companions with Aurora to develop self-driving business vans
Hyundai and Kia Spend money on Aurora
Aptiv and Hyundai Motor Group Type Autonomous Driving Joint Enterprise
Cadillac Tremendous Cruise
Tumblr media
Units the Customary for Palms-Free Freeway Driving
Honda Joins with Cruise and Normal Motors to Construct New Autonomous Car
SoftBank Imaginative and prescient Fund to Make investments $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise
Ford-VW alliance with Argo may redraw self-driving sector
VW faucets Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving automobiles in China
Audi to affix Daimler, BMW self-driving tech alliance
Daimler’s heavy vehicles begin self-driving a number of the manner
SoftBank, Toyota’s self-driving automobile enterprise provides Mazda, Suzuki, Subaru Corp, Isuzu Daihatsu 
Volvo, Nvidia develop autonomous driving collaboration
Continental & NVIDIA Accomplice to Allow Manufacturing of Synthetic Intelligence Self-Driving Vehicles
Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million automobiles (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads constructing HD maps
Nissan offers Japan model of Infiniti Q50 hands-free freeway driving
Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and make the most of imaginative and prescient knowledge for crowdsourced mapping
Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs
Hyundai to start out autonomous ride-sharing service in Calif.
Uber unveils next-generation Volvo self-driving automobile
Baidu kicks off trial operation of Apollo robotaxi in Changsha
Toyota to affix Baidu’s open-source self-driving platform
Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving options
Baidu plans to mass produce Stage four self-driving automobiles with BAIC by 2021
Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Stage four autonomy for China
Geely selects Volvo, Veoneer three way partnership as autonomous tech provider
BMW and Tencent to develop self-driving automobile expertise collectively
BMW, NavInfo bolster partnership in HD map service for autonomous automobiles in China
FAW Hongqi readies electrical SUV providing Stage four autonomous driving
Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Car Joint Enterprise
Huawei seems to self-driving automobiles in bid to broaden AI focus
BYD companions with Huawei for autonomous driving
Pony.ai, GAC Group launches Aion LX’s degree four self-driving model
Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software program for Self-Driving Vehicles
Deutsche Put up to Deploy Take a look at Fleet Of Totally Autonomous Supply Vehicles
ZF autonomous EV enterprise names first buyer
Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform affords autonomy as much as Stage four
Groupe PSA’s protected and intuitive autonomous automobile examined by most people
Mitsubishi Electrical to Exhibit Autonomous-driving Applied sciences in New xAUTO Take a look at Car
Apple acquires self-driving startup Drive.ai
Momenta – Constructing Autonomous Driving Brains
JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electrical Vehicles
NAVYA Unveils First Totally Autonomous Taxi
Fujitsu and HERE to associate on superior mobility providers and autonomous driving
Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Accomplice for Autonomous Car Know-how
First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi
Nuro’s Robotic Supply Vans Are Arriving Earlier than Self-Driving Vehicles
Right here’s the place Tesla’s competitors will get its battery cells…
Panasonic (making offers with a number of automakers)
LG
Samsung
SK Innovation
Toshiba
CATL
BYD
Northvolt (backed by VW & BMW)
Farasis
Akasol
Cenat
Wanxiang
Svolt
Romeo Energy
Toyota accelerates goal for EV with solid-state battery to 2020
ProLogium Know-how Will Produce First Subsequent Technology Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs
BMW invests in Strong Energy solid-state batteries
Ford invests in Strong Energy solid-state batteries
Hyundai Motor growing solid-state EV batteries
Most automobile makers will use these battery cells to fabricate their very own packs. Listed here are some examples:
Daimler begins constructing electrical automobile batteries in Tuscaloosa – one in all eight battery factories
GM inaugurates battery meeting plant in Shanghai
PSA to assemble batteries for hybrid, electrical automobiles in Slovakia
Honda Companions on Normal Motors’ Subsequent Gen Battery Improvement
France’s Saft plans manufacturing of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020
Sokon goals to be international supplier of battery, electrical motor, electrical management methods
BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre
BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery manufacturing unit in Shenyang
Rimac goes to mass produce batteries and electrical motors for OEMs
Right here’s Tesla’s competitors in charging networks…
Electrify America is spending $2 billion constructing a high-speed U.S. charging community
EVgo is constructing a U.S. charging community
191 U.S. Porsche sellers are putting in 350kw chargers
ChargePoint to equip Daimler sellers with electrical automobile chargers
GM and Bechtel plan to construct 1000’s of electrical automobile charging stations throughout the US
Ford introduces 12,000 station charging community, groups with Amazon on house set up
Volta is rolling out a free charging community
Ionity has over 150 European 350kw charging stations
E.ON and Virta launch one of many largest clever EV charging networks in Europe
Volkswagen plans 36,000 charging factors for electrical automobiles all through Europe
Smatric has over 400 charging factors in Austria
Allego has lots of of chargers in Europe
PodPoint UK charging stations
BP Chargemaster/Polar is constructing stations throughout the UK
Instavolt is rolling out a UK charging community
Fastned constructing 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe
Deutsche Telekom launches set up of charging community for e-cars
Shell begins rollout of ultrafast electrical automobile chargers in Europe
Complete to construct 1,000 high-powered charging factors at 300 European service-stations
Volkswagen, FAW Group, JAC Motors, Star Cost formally announce new EV charging JV
BP, Didi Soar on Electrical-Car Charging Bandwagon
Evie rolls out ultrafast charging community in Australia
Evie Networks To Set up 42 Extremely-Quick Charging Websites In Australia
And right here’s Tesla’s competitors in storage batteries…
Panasonic
Samsung
LG
BYD
AES + Siemens (Fluence)
GE
Bosch
Mitsubishi Hitachi
NEC
Toshiba
ABB
Saft
Johnson Contols
EnerSys
SOLARWATT
Schneider Electrical
Sonnen
Kyocera
Kokam
NantEnergy
Eaton
Nissan
Tesvolt
Kreisel
Leclanche
Lockheed Martin
EOS Vitality Storage
ESS
UET
electrIQ Energy
Belectric
Stem
ENGIE
Redflow
Renault
Primus Energy
Simpliphi Energy
redT Vitality Storage
Murata
Bluestorage
Adara
Blue Planet
Tabuchi Electrical
Aggreko
Orison
Moixa
Powin Vitality
Nidec
Powervault
Schmid
24M
Ecoult
Innolith
LithiumWerks
Natron Vitality
Vitality Vault
Ambri
But regardless of all that deep-pocketed competitors, maybe you need to purchase shares of Tesla since you consider in its administration staff. Actually???
Elon Musk knew SolarCity confronted a ‘liquidity crisis’ at time of 2016 deal, authorized paperwork present
Musk’s empire was in peril in 2016, and new paperwork reveal the determined plan to reserve it
Elon Musk knew SolarCity was going broke earlier than merger with Tesla
Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Costs
Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”
Extra Damaged Guarantees From Tesla
Tesla SEC Correspondence Reveals A Sample Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Deceptive Disclosures
Tesla: Test Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date
As Musk Hyped and Joyful-Talked Buyers, Tesla Stored Quiet A couple of Yr-Lengthy SEC Probe
The Fact Is Catching Up With Tesla
With Deceptive Messages And Buyer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall
Who You Gonna Imagine? Elon Musk’s Phrases Or Your Personal Mendacity Eyes?
How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Security Claims About Autopilot and Vehicles
When Is Sufficient Sufficient With Elon Musk?
Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Earlier than Tesla Inventory Sale
Tesla Continues To Mislead Customers
Tesla Misses The Level With Fortune Autopilot Story
Tesla Timeline Reveals Musk’s Morality Is Extremely Handy
Tesla Scares Prospects With Nugatory NDAs, The Day by day Kanban Talks To Attorneys
Tesla: O, What A Tangled Net We Weave When First We Observe To Deceive
Tesla’s Monetary Shenanigans
Tesla: A Failure To Talk
Can You Actually Belief Tesla?
Elon Musk Seems To Have Misled Buyers On Tesla’s Most Current Convention Name
Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station
So in abstract, Tesla is about to face an enormous onslaught of competitors with a market cap bigger than Ford’s and GM’s regardless of promoting fewer than 400,000 automobiles a yr whereas Ford and GM make billions of dollars promoting 6 million and over eight million autos respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk self-importance undertaking is value vastly lower than its roughly $70 billion enterprise worth and—because of over $30 billion in debt, buy and lease obligations—could finally be value “zero.”
from Job Search Tips https://jobsearchtips.net/low-degree-of-momentary-tesla-profitability-forward-of-collapse-brief-vendor/
0 notes
hostingnewsfeed · 5 years
Text
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
New Post has been published on http://psychotherapy-online.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
Tumblr media
March 29, 2019
Friends and Fellow Investors:
For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)
I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…
Tumblr media
…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:
Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…
We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:
Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.
Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.
Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business
Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.
In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.
Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).
Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…
In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.
What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.
In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…
Tumblr media
…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:
Tumblr media
Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.
Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!
How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:
Tumblr media
Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.
But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?
I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…
Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.
Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.
The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.
And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.
Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).
So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…
THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE
2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship
VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade
Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now
Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019
AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)
Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021
Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019
Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan
The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric
New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019
Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019
Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022
258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000
239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000
Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles
Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022
Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand
Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now
Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020
The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3
BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020
New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing
BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025
Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development
Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market
Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019
Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s
New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range
Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe
Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021
DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost
ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019
Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020
SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles
Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020
2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model
Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models
New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020
MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020
Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati
Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022
Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022
Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025
Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint
Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021
Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification
Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan
Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production
Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon
Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar
Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years
SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range
Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon
Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production
EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis
And in China…
VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars
Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai
Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022
BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV
BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019
2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy
Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market
BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant
BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market
BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV
Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019
GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023
Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles
Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020
Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market
NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag
536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X
NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7
BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China
Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China
Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production
SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG
Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China
Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China
Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025
Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000
Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV
New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km
Changan building large scale NEV factory
Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles
XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000
XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019
WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market
Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China
Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou
BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019
DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV
GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models
Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020
Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China
Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range
Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles
Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds
FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025
JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers
ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion
Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market
Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01
Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV
All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China
Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production
CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production
Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars
Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power
JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China
Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund
Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars
Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China
Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…
Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving
What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving
Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service
Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car
Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000
Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars
Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership
Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars
Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving
GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019
Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle
SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise
Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation
Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars
VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China
An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving
Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture
Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class
Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020
Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way
Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration
Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars
Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps
Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020
Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping
Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs
Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design
Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform
Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions
Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021
Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China
BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving
Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas
Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars
Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021
Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year
Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles
ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer
Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4
Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public
Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture
Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019
JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks
NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi
Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving
Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology
First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi
Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars
Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…
LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020
LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China
Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show
SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022
New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes
Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories
Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China
Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota
CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory
CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany
BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants
GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai
Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production
VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery
Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development
Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory
France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020
Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden
ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant
Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant
Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems
BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre
BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang
BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company
Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’
VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment
Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries
Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations
UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries
Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs
Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees
Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production
Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest
ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs
Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…
Panasonic
Samsung
LG
BYD
AES + Siemens (Fluence)
GE
Bosch
Mitsubishi Hitachi
NEC
Toshiba
ABB
Saft
Johnson Contols
EnerSys
SOLARWATT
Schneider Electric
sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)
Kokam
Sharp
Eaton
Nissan
Tesvolt
Kreisel
Leclanche
Lockheed Martin
EOS Energy Storage
ESS
UET
electrIQ Power
Belectric
Stem
ENGIE
Exergonix
Redflow
Renault
Fluidic Energy
Primus Power
Simpliphi Power
redT Energy Storage
Murata
Bluestorage
Adara
Blue Planet
Clean Energy Storage Inc.
Tabuchi Electric
Younicos
Orison
Moixa
Powin Energy
Nidec
Powervault
Schmid
24M
Ecoult
Innolith
LithiumWerks
Natron Energy
And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…
Electrify America: Our Plan
EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US
Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.
Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.
ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC
Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging
BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network
E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020
Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations
Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational
Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas
ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total
UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020
UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network
Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe
Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany
ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger
Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion
BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster
Total planning EV charging points at its French stations
VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China
Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???
Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges
Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”
Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures
Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date
As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe
The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla
With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall
Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?
How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars
When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?
Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale
Debunking The Tesla Mythology
Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers
Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story
Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient
Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers
Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash
Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive
I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3
Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans
Tesla: A Failure To Communicate
Can You Really Trust Tesla?
Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call
Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station
Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations
So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”
Elsewhere among our short positions…
We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…
…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.
Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.
When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.
We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:
Tumblr media
And now for the fund’s long positions…
We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.
We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.
We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).
Thanks and regards,
Mark Spiegel
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
0 notes
lazilysillyprince · 5 years
Text
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
New Post has been published on http://psychotherapy-online.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
Tumblr media
March 29, 2019
Friends and Fellow Investors:
For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)
I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…
Tumblr media
…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:
Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…
We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:
Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.
Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.
Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business
Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.
In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.
Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).
Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…
In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.
What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.
In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…
Tumblr media
…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:
Tumblr media
Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.
Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!
How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:
Tumblr media
Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.
But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?
I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…
Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.
Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.
The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.
And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.
Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).
So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…
THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE
2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship
VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade
Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now
Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019
AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)
Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021
Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019
Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan
The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric
New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019
Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019
Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022
258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000
239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000
Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles
Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022
Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand
Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now
Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020
The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3
BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020
New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing
BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025
Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development
Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market
Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019
Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s
New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range
Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe
Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021
DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost
ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019
Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020
SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles
Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020
2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model
Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models
New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020
MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020
Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati
Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022
Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022
Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025
Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint
Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021
Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification
Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan
Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production
Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon
Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar
Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years
SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range
Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon
Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production
EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis
And in China…
VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars
Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai
Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022
BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV
BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019
2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy
Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market
BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant
BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market
BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV
Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019
GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023
Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles
Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020
Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market
NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag
536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X
NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7
BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China
Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China
Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production
SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG
Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China
Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China
Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025
Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000
Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV
New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km
Changan building large scale NEV factory
Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles
XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000
XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019
WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market
Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China
Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou
BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019
DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV
GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models
Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020
Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China
Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range
Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles
Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds
FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025
JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers
ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion
Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market
Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01
Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV
All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China
Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production
CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production
Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars
Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power
JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China
Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund
Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars
Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China
Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…
Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving
What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving
Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service
Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car
Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000
Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars
Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership
Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars
Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving
GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019
Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle
SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise
Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation
Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars
VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China
An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving
Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture
Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class
Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020
Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way
Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration
Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars
Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps
Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020
Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping
Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs
Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design
Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform
Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions
Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021
Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China
BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving
Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas
Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars
Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021
Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year
Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles
ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer
Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4
Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public
Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture
Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019
JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks
NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi
Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving
Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology
First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi
Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars
Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…
LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020
LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China
Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show
SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022
New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes
Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories
Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China
Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota
CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory
CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany
BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants
GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai
Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production
VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery
Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development
Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory
France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020
Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden
ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant
Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant
Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems
BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre
BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang
BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company
Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’
VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment
Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries
Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations
UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries
Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs
Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees
Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production
Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest
ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs
Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…
Panasonic
Samsung
LG
BYD
AES + Siemens (Fluence)
GE
Bosch
Mitsubishi Hitachi
NEC
Toshiba
ABB
Saft
Johnson Contols
EnerSys
SOLARWATT
Schneider Electric
sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)
Kokam
Sharp
Eaton
Nissan
Tesvolt
Kreisel
Leclanche
Lockheed Martin
EOS Energy Storage
ESS
UET
electrIQ Power
Belectric
Stem
ENGIE
Exergonix
Redflow
Renault
Fluidic Energy
Primus Power
Simpliphi Power
redT Energy Storage
Murata
Bluestorage
Adara
Blue Planet
Clean Energy Storage Inc.
Tabuchi Electric
Younicos
Orison
Moixa
Powin Energy
Nidec
Powervault
Schmid
24M
Ecoult
Innolith
LithiumWerks
Natron Energy
And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…
Electrify America: Our Plan
EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US
Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.
Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.
ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC
Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging
BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network
E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020
Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations
Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational
Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas
ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total
UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020
UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network
Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe
Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany
ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger
Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion
BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster
Total planning EV charging points at its French stations
VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China
Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???
Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges
Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”
Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures
Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date
As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe
The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla
With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall
Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?
How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars
When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?
Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale
Debunking The Tesla Mythology
Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers
Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story
Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient
Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers
Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash
Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive
I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3
Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans
Tesla: A Failure To Communicate
Can You Really Trust Tesla?
Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call
Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station
Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations
So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”
Elsewhere among our short positions…
We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…
…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.
Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.
When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.
We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:
Tumblr media
And now for the fund’s long positions…
We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.
We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.
We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).
Thanks and regards,
Mark Spiegel
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
0 notes
smartwebhostingblog · 5 years
Text
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
New Post has been published on http://psychotherapy-online.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
Tumblr media
March 29, 2019
Friends and Fellow Investors:
For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)
I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…
Tumblr media
…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:
Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…
We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:
Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.
Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.
Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business
Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.
In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.
Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).
Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…
In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.
What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.
In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…
Tumblr media
…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:
Tumblr media
Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.
Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!
How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:
Tumblr media
Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.
But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?
I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…
Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.
Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.
The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.
And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.
Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).
So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…
THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE
2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship
VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade
Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now
Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019
AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)
Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021
Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019
Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan
The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric
New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019
Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019
Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022
258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000
239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000
Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles
Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022
Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand
Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now
Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020
The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3
BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020
New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing
BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025
Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development
Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market
Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019
Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s
New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range
Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe
Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021
DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost
ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019
Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020
SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles
Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020
2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model
Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models
New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020
MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020
Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati
Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022
Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022
Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025
Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint
Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021
Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification
Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan
Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production
Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon
Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar
Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years
SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range
Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon
Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production
EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis
And in China…
VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars
Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai
Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022
BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV
BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019
2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy
Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market
BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant
BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market
BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV
Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019
GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023
Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles
Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020
Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market
NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag
536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X
NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7
BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China
Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China
Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production
SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG
Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China
Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China
Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025
Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000
Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV
New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km
Changan building large scale NEV factory
Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles
XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000
XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019
WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market
Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China
Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou
BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019
DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV
GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models
Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020
Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China
Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range
Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles
Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds
FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025
JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers
ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion
Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market
Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01
Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV
All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China
Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production
CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production
Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars
Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power
JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China
Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund
Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars
Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China
Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…
Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving
What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving
Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service
Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car
Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000
Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars
Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership
Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars
Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving
GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019
Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle
SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise
Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation
Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars
VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China
An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving
Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture
Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class
Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020
Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way
Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration
Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars
Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps
Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020
Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping
Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs
Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design
Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform
Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions
Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021
Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China
BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving
Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas
Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars
Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021
Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year
Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles
ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer
Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4
Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public
Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture
Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019
JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks
NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi
Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving
Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology
First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi
Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars
Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…
LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020
LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China
Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show
SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022
New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes
Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories
Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China
Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota
CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory
CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany
BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants
GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai
Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production
VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery
Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development
Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory
France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020
Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden
ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant
Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant
Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems
BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre
BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang
BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company
Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’
VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment
Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries
Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations
UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries
Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs
Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees
Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production
Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest
ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs
Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…
Panasonic
Samsung
LG
BYD
AES + Siemens (Fluence)
GE
Bosch
Mitsubishi Hitachi
NEC
Toshiba
ABB
Saft
Johnson Contols
EnerSys
SOLARWATT
Schneider Electric
sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)
Kokam
Sharp
Eaton
Nissan
Tesvolt
Kreisel
Leclanche
Lockheed Martin
EOS Energy Storage
ESS
UET
electrIQ Power
Belectric
Stem
ENGIE
Exergonix
Redflow
Renault
Fluidic Energy
Primus Power
Simpliphi Power
redT Energy Storage
Murata
Bluestorage
Adara
Blue Planet
Clean Energy Storage Inc.
Tabuchi Electric
Younicos
Orison
Moixa
Powin Energy
Nidec
Powervault
Schmid
24M
Ecoult
Innolith
LithiumWerks
Natron Energy
And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…
Electrify America: Our Plan
EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US
Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.
Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.
ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC
Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging
BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network
E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020
Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations
Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational
Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas
ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total
UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020
UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network
Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe
Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany
ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger
Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion
BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster
Total planning EV charging points at its French stations
VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China
Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???
Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges
Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”
Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures
Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date
As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe
The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla
With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall
Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?
How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars
When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?
Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale
Debunking The Tesla Mythology
Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers
Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story
Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient
Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers
Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash
Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive
I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3
Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans
Tesla: A Failure To Communicate
Can You Really Trust Tesla?
Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call
Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station
Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations
So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”
Elsewhere among our short positions…
We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…
…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.
Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.
When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.
We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:
Tumblr media
And now for the fund’s long positions…
We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.
We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.
We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).
Thanks and regards,
Mark Spiegel
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
0 notes
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
New Post has been published on http://psychotherapy-online.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
Tumblr media
March 29, 2019
Friends and Fellow Investors:
For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)
I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…
Tumblr media
…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:
Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…
We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:
Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.
Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.
Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business
Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.
In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.
Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).
Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…
In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.
What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.
In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…
Tumblr media
…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:
Tumblr media
Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.
Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!
How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:
Tumblr media
Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.
But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?
I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…
Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.
Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.
The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.
And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.
Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).
So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…
THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE
2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship
VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade
Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now
Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019
AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)
Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021
Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019
Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan
The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric
New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019
Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019
Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022
258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000
239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000
Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles
Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022
Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand
Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now
Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020
The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3
BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020
New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing
BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025
Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development
Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market
Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019
Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s
New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range
Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe
Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021
DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost
ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019
Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020
SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles
Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020
2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model
Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models
New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020
MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020
Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati
Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022
Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022
Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025
Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint
Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021
Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification
Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan
Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production
Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon
Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar
Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years
SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range
Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon
Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production
EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis
And in China…
VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars
Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai
Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022
BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV
BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019
2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy
Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market
BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant
BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market
BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV
Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019
GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023
Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles
Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020
Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market
NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag
536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X
NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7
BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China
Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China
Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production
SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG
Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China
Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China
Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025
Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000
Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV
New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km
Changan building large scale NEV factory
Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles
XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000
XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019
WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market
Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China
Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou
BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019
DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV
GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models
Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020
Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China
Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range
Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles
Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds
FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025
JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers
ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion
Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market
Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01
Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV
All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China
Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production
CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production
Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars
Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power
JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China
Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund
Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars
Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China
Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…
Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving
What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving
Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service
Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car
Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000
Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars
Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership
Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars
Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving
GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019
Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle
SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise
Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation
Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars
VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China
An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving
Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture
Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class
Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020
Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way
Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration
Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars
Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps
Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020
Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping
Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs
Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design
Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform
Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions
Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021
Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China
BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving
Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas
Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars
Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021
Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year
Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles
ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer
Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4
Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public
Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture
Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019
JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks
NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi
Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving
Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology
First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi
Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars
Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…
LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020
LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China
Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show
SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022
New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes
Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories
Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China
Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota
CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory
CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany
BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants
GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai
Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production
VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery
Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development
Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory
France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020
Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden
ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant
Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant
Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems
BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre
BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang
BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company
Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’
VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment
Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries
Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations
UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries
Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs
Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees
Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production
Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest
ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs
Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…
Panasonic
Samsung
LG
BYD
AES + Siemens (Fluence)
GE
Bosch
Mitsubishi Hitachi
NEC
Toshiba
ABB
Saft
Johnson Contols
EnerSys
SOLARWATT
Schneider Electric
sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)
Kokam
Sharp
Eaton
Nissan
Tesvolt
Kreisel
Leclanche
Lockheed Martin
EOS Energy Storage
ESS
UET
electrIQ Power
Belectric
Stem
ENGIE
Exergonix
Redflow
Renault
Fluidic Energy
Primus Power
Simpliphi Power
redT Energy Storage
Murata
Bluestorage
Adara
Blue Planet
Clean Energy Storage Inc.
Tabuchi Electric
Younicos
Orison
Moixa
Powin Energy
Nidec
Powervault
Schmid
24M
Ecoult
Innolith
LithiumWerks
Natron Energy
And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…
Electrify America: Our Plan
EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US
Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.
Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.
ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC
Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging
BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network
E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020
Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations
Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational
Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas
ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total
UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020
UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network
Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe
Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany
ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger
Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion
BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster
Total planning EV charging points at its French stations
VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China
Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???
Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges
Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”
Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures
Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date
As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe
The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla
With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall
Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?
How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars
When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?
Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale
Debunking The Tesla Mythology
Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers
Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story
Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient
Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers
Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash
Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive
I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3
Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans
Tesla: A Failure To Communicate
Can You Really Trust Tesla?
Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call
Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station
Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations
So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”
Elsewhere among our short positions…
We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…
…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.
Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.
When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.
We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:
Tumblr media
And now for the fund’s long positions…
We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.
We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.
We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).
Thanks and regards,
Mark Spiegel
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
0 notes
headabovewaterx · 5 years
Text
2020 Audi Q1 Redesign, Price, Release Date, and Specs
2020 Audi Q1 Redesign, Price, Release Date, and Specs
2020 Audi Q1 Redesign, Price, Release Date, and Specs. Audi has no plans to stop with expanding its crossover lineup. The 2020 Audi Q1 is about to arrive. This baby crossover will slot below the small Q2 model. Just like the Q2, Audi Q1 will also ride on the famous MQB platform. It will feature a coupe-like design and it will look stylish.
Small crossovers are a perfect replacement for regular…
View On WordPress
0 notes
joshjailbait · 5 years
Text
2020 Audi Q1 Redesign, Specs, Interior, and Price
2020 Audi Q1 Redesign, Specs, Interior, and Price
2020 Audi Q1 Redesign, Specs, Interior, and Price. Audi has no plans to stop with expanding its crossover lineup. The 2020 Audi Q1 is about to arrive. This baby crossover will slot below the small Q2 model. Just like the Q2, Audi Q1 will also ride on the famous MQB platform. It will feature a coupe-like design and it will look stylish.
Small crossovers are a perfect replacement for regular cars.…
View On WordPress
0 notes
enginerumors · 5 years
Text
2020 Audi Q1 Demension, Price, Release Date
2020 Audi Q1 Demension, Price, Release Date
2020 Audi Q1 Demension, Price, Release Date – 2020 Audi Q1 can be a new Audi SUV. This vehicle is the finest platform. The platform is also employed by other vehicles. The company will provide the new engine performance as well as the new design concept for this particular auto. Next year, the initial quarter of 2020 will begin together with the competing price.
2020 Audi Q1 Exterior And Interior
View On WordPress
0 notes
jeramymobley · 7 years
Text
Los Angeles Auto Show: Tesla Model 3 and Other Electrifying Debuts
With the Los Angeles Auto Show open to the public through December 1st, there is plenty on show to entice car buyers weighing what’s new, sleek, fuel-efficient innovative or just plain fun. People who has put down $1,000 deposits on the new Tesla Model 3 will finally be able to get a peek. But the hype around the Model 3—which Tesla has largely kept under wraps—isn’t the only big news going on at the LA Convention Center.
Auto brands are rolling out a significant number of new vehicles—more than 1,000—with key features and innovative developments, especially in the areas of electrification and SUVs. Show attendees can not only see them up close and personal, but experience new models via virtual reality and test drives.
Among the hot items at the 2017 LA Auto Show:
Audi is debuting its flagship new A8 sedan as “the next generation of luxury” — a vehicle that emphasizes a future of driving autonomy and comfort. The fourth-generation A8 is “truly a technological marvel,” says the New York Daily News, “with advanced autonomous driving features, a mild-hybrid powertrain and significant changes throughout to increase style, comfort and convenience.”
.@Audi is unveiling the next generation of luxury: https://t.co/Gnxj9coKIg
— TheStreet (@TheStreet) December 1, 2017
BMW is displaying its Concept X7 SUV, the brand’s new flagship. It will be built in South Carolina with three rows and a twin-turbocharbed engine plus electric power for a plug-in hybrid “that excels in all driving situations,” the company said. In addition to showing its all-new M3 CS, BMW is talking up olans to make its MINI brand all-electric in the US in 2019.
It’s lost 110-lbs—and gained 28 horsepower and 37 lb-ft of torque. The all-new BMW M3 CS. #BMWLAAS http://pic.twitter.com/9k0o4PJplo
— BMW USA (@BMWUSA) December 1, 2017
Chevrolet introduces the 2019 Corvette ZR1 convertible, the first ZR1 droptop since the original in 1970. It’ll go on sale in the spring starting with a hair-whipping $124,000 sticker price, while a ZR1 coupe that will be introduced simultaneously starts at a mere $120,000. Let’s just say these won’t be autonomously driven vehicles.
More power. More performance. More bragging rights. The 2019 #Chevy #Corvette #ZR1 convertible. http://pic.twitter.com/jEkwjSJmzq
— Chevrolet (@chevrolet) November 29, 2017
Hyundai is showing off its new Kona SUV, one of seven new or re-engineered crossover utility vehicles that it plans to add to the US market by 2020. Hyundai is addressing an imbalance in its product lineup that has favored sedans over utility vehicles. As one of its “answers,” Kona is styled in an “urban smart armor” design that should fare well in what the company called “adventure-oriented driving environments.”
Loaded w/ character & personality is the first-ever #HyundaiKONA! The perfect sidekick for exploring all that life has to offer! https://t.co/Yccj2bCFvi #LAAutoShow #HyundaiLAAS #AutoMobilityLA http://pic.twitter.com/iZmN5JYnVK
— Hyundai USA (@Hyundai) November 29, 2017
Infiniti unveils a redesigned QX50 crossover that is an important vehicle for the Nissan-owned luxury brand, which has been growing fast this year. Arriving at dealers in Q1, the redesigned QX50 is powered by a variable-compression engine using technology that Nissan has been working on for about 20 years, the world’s first production car to use the mileage-boosting technology.
Space for everything. Road trips will never look the same with the all-new #QX50. Coming Spring 2018. http://pic.twitter.com/hiAiEbmL7g
— INFINITI USA (@INFINITIUSA) December 3, 2017
Jeep is taking the wraps off the redesigned 2018 Wrangler, a reboot of the iconic design that has become crucial to the fortunes of FCA. Wrangler is Jeep’s No. 2 seller in the US, and Jeep is the brand that most has kept Fiat Chrysler relevant as the US market levels off and SUV sales keep taking more share from sedans. While the exterior design remains about the same for the iconic silhouette with the exterior door hinges, the new wrangler gets on-road performance enhancements and better fuel economy.
More of what you want. The All-New 2018 Wrangler. #LAAutoShow http://pic.twitter.com/6QnYcFgN6P
— Jeep (@Jeep) December 1, 2017
Lexus has updated its best-selling vehicle, the iconic, mid-sized RX SUV, by lengthening it four inches and upping its human capacity to six or seven people with a version it calls RXL. The three-row model gives Lexus a better-known nameplate in the accelerating big SUV race among luxury makes.
The curtain has been pulled back. The new #LexusRX 350L is now front and center. #LAAutoShow https://t.co/YFiVraUdP1 http://pic.twitter.com/rYZQcSMAR7
— Lexus (@Lexus) November 30, 2017
Mercedes-Benz is wooing attendees to take its heart-pounding test drive experience on a simulated mountain. Also on show: the all-new CLS, equipped with striking front end features, a fully digital cockpit, and Intelligent Drive technology as the CLS morphs into an increasingly functional coupe-like four-door; the Mercedes-AMG Project ONE hypercar; and the 2018 S-Class Cabriolet, which the brand describes as where “cutting-edge technology meets distinctive design.”
Melissa Witek gives us a personal tour of the @MercedesAMG Project ONE hypercar, live from the #LAAS. #AMG http://pic.twitter.com/MFzyDuG6dU
— Mercedes-Benz USAㅤ (@MBUSA) December 1, 2017
An inside look at the all-new 2019 CLS with Chief Design Officer of Daimler AG Gorden Wagener. #LAAutoShow2017 http://pic.twitter.com/arr17ac9KF
— Mercedes-Benz USAㅤ (@MBUSA) November 30, 2017
Ready for the ride? Mercedes-Benz mountain test drives are available daily through December 10. You can not miss this year’s #LAAutoShow
A post shared by 2017 LA Auto Show: Dec. 1-10 (@laautoshow) on Dec 3, 2017 at 9:13pm PST
Porsche has four world premieres at this year’s LA Auto Show: The Panamera Turbo S E-Hybrid Sport Turismo, the 718 Boxster GTS and the 718 Cayman GTS are each the flagship of their respective model lines, while the 911 Carrera T takes the role of puristic lightweight. In addition, the new generation of the Cayenne is celebrating its first outing in the United States.
Porsche Hall (and 1,000 other vehicles) are around until December 10 at the #LAAutoShow. We’ll see you here
A post shared by 2017 LA Auto Show: Dec. 1-10 (@laautoshow) on Dec 3, 2017 at 7:28pm PST
REV Group introduced a wheelchair-accessible Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivan in the first public show for REV‘s new specialty vehicle brand, Revability. The vehicle features front and middle-row captain’s seats with wheelchair accessibility from the rear
This 2017 @Chrysler Pacifica is the world's first production plug-in gas/electric hybrid #wheelchair accessible vehicle! RT to share this awesome industry advancement from #NMEDA member @revgroupinc! http://pic.twitter.com/D4J355EMiB
— NMEDA (@NMEDAcom) December 1, 2017
Subaru bid to maintain the growing relevance of its SUV lineup by unveiling the all-new Ascent three-row SUV, which puts the hot brand right back into the large-utility market three years after its ill-fated Tribeca was dumped in 2014. Tribeca wasn’t a great vehicle, but Subaru executives promise that Ascent — which will be built in Indiana — will be, as the brand’s biggest-ever model and pricing that begins in the low $30,000s. Executives got help from a puppy in introducing Ascent to LA show journalists.
Presenting the all-new 3-row Subaru Ascent. Love is now bigger than ever. Sign up for updates: https://t.co/w14IOZRZTn http://pic.twitter.com/IW42U1WX9A
— Subaru (@subaru_usa) November 29, 2017
Tesla is displaying Model 3 at the show even though it typically has done little at auto shows. The vehicle has been pretty shielded until now, symbolizing the murky view that would-be customers, investors and the general public have of the new model that has caused Tesla some well-publicized production headaches as CEO Elon Musk tries to gear up volume output befitting a mainstream EV. There’s also a Model X crossover and Model S sedan at the Tesla display, as well as Tesla’s home-energy products. Tesla is promoting research showing that EVs are cheaper than gasoline-powered cars to fuel and drive—and that regular car dealerships aren’t eager to promote electric vehicles.
New @UCSUSA study shows that across the US, driving an electric car is not just cleaner, but costs less to drive than a gasoline car https://t.co/OAAO2H9CCM
— Tesla (@Tesla)
0 notes
crarsports · 5 years
Text
How To Have A Fantastic Photo Of Audi Cars With Minimal Spending | photo of audi cars
How To Have A Fantastic Photo Of Audi Cars With Minimal Spending | photo of audi cars – photo of audi cars | Pleasant in order to the website, with this occasion I am going to demonstrate concerning keyword. And after this, this can be the 1st photograph:
Audi: Audi Future Cars 2019-2020 – Audi Future Cars 2019 … – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
What about photograph above? will be of which wonderful???. if you think so, I’l d provide you with many graphic yet again beneath:
So, if you want to have these fantastic pictures related to (How To Have A Fantastic Photo Of Audi Cars With Minimal Spending | photo of audi cars), click save icon to download the shots to your computer. They are available for download, if you’d prefer and wish to obtain it, simply click save badge in the post, and it’ll be instantly saved to your notebook computer.} As a final point if you want to gain unique and the latest graphic related to (How To Have A Fantastic Photo Of Audi Cars With Minimal Spending | photo of audi cars), please follow us on google plus or bookmark the site, we attempt our best to provide regular up grade with all new and fresh graphics. Hope you enjoy staying right here. For many upgrades and recent news about (How To Have A Fantastic Photo Of Audi Cars With Minimal Spending | photo of audi cars) graphics, please kindly follow us on tweets, path, Instagram and google plus, or you mark this page on book mark section, We try to present you update regularly with all new and fresh images, like your searching, and find the best for you.
Here you are at our website, articleabove (How To Have A Fantastic Photo Of Audi Cars With Minimal Spending | photo of audi cars) published .  Nowadays we are delighted to announce that we have found an incrediblyinteresting topicto be discussed, namely (How To Have A Fantastic Photo Of Audi Cars With Minimal Spending | photo of audi cars) Many individuals looking for details about(How To Have A Fantastic Photo Of Audi Cars With Minimal Spending | photo of audi cars) and certainly one of them is you, is not it?
Audi For Sale Los Angeles – New, Used, CPO Audi Cars – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
Real Madrid Players Get Their Yearly Audis And Many Are Q23 SUVs – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
fond ecran iphone et avatar facebook | wallpaperislambank – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
Download desktop wallpaper Car Audi R8 VS, rear view photo – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
Audi. – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
Audi RS 5 DTM – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
«oooo» / A5 / Audi / Cars / Carlook – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
2016 Audi A6 and A7 TFSI quattro Models Look Handsome in … – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
Audi RS5 Photoshoot | EXPLORE Nr.24 – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
Used Audi, Pre-owned Audi Cars in Delhi India | BBT – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
Audi Full-Size Cars Line Up for Photoshoot – autoevolution – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
New Audi A1: everything you need to know | CAR Magazine – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
Audi Full-Size Cars Line Up for Photoshoot – autoevolution – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
Future Audi cars – the fightback begins | Automotive Industry … – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
Audi Car Pic – impremedia.net – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
Top 23 Best Selling Audi Models | CAR FROM JAPAN – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
2017 Audi A3 Sportback Review – photos | CarAdvice – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
Audi Trademarks Q1, A2 and RS2: Flood of Even Smaller … – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
Audi Cars Price in India, New Models 23, Images, Specs, Reviews … – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
2016 Audi A6 and A7 TFSI quattro Models Look Handsome in … – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
“Ender’s Game” Film Features Futuristic Audi Fleet Shuttle … – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
Audi A5 review: handsome looks, but can it beat BMW and … – photo of audi cars | photo of audi cars
from WordPress https://flyinghamster2.com/how-to-have-a-fantastic-photo-of-audi-cars-with-minimal-spending-photo-of-audi-cars/
0 notes
jobsearchtips02 · 5 years
Text
Elon Musk is a securities fraud-committing pathological liar: Shortseller
Excerpted from Stanphyl Capital’s October letter to traders on the part specializing in the hedge fund’s Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) brief.
See extra unique hedge fund shorts (and longs) right here.
And now for the first reason for this month’s terrible efficiency, Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)…
Tesla reported Q3 earnings in October and—precisely as we anticipated—income for this alleged “growth company” was a whole bunch of tens of millions of dollars decrease than the year-ago quarter (U.S. income was down 39%!) additionally down vs. the earlier quarter, but sequential profitability unexpectedly flipped from a $408 million GAAP loss in Q2 2019 to a $153 million Q3 revenue (vs. our expectation of a $300 million loss).
Automobile producers don’t do that and not using a large variety of one-time gadgets/tips and this isn’t indicative of sustainable efficiency. Bear in mind: between Q3 and This autumn of final yr Tesla averaged even increased profitability, then slid again into large losses. (And even when this have been indicative of future profitability, automotive producers promote for round 8x earnings; annualizing this .80/share to $Three.20 would make Tesla [now just another slow/no-growth automaker] price simply $25.60/share even earlier than contemplating its terrible steadiness sheet.)
As to the particular monetary video games performed in Q3, of the $143 million “profit,” $80 million got here from overseas trade good points, roughly $55 million from decreased guarantee provisioning/accruals, $100 million reportedly from one-time rebates from suppliers promised future quantity for Mannequin Three components used on the
6
Stanphyl Capital Administration LLC
Stanphyl Capital GP, LLC
Stanphyl Capital Companions LP
Mannequin Y, and $51 million from “burning the furniture to heat the house” by way of an enormous discount in SG&A regardless of having 97,000 extra vehicles on the street, thereby leading to interminable, reputation-destroying customer support wait instances. , $134 million of the “profit” got here from regulatory credit score gross sales that can disappear roughly two years from now once they’re not wanted by different auto producers; i.e., they don’t advantage an earnings a number of. Accounting for these non-repeatable (or unsustainable) gadgets, Tesla’s alleged revenue flips to a big loss, and these are solely the one-time gadgets of which we’re conscious.
Tesla additionally claimed $371 million in Q3 free money circulate, however internet payables minus receivables have been up $365 million (in 1 / 4 wherein Tesla claimed bills DECLINED throughout the board!) vs. a listing acquire of simply $199 million, and capex was underspent by $225 million vs. the midpoint of steering. Adjusted for this stuff free money circulate too was damaging, and going ahead capex should soar for Tesla to satisfy its obligations in China (the place it should spend an extra $1.5 billion throughout the subsequent 20 months) and to buy Mannequin Y tooling.
In reality we might even see an identical low degree of short-term Tesla profitability in This autumn (the one we’re in now) or
Q1 of 2020, when in a single or (divided between) each of these quarters Tesla acknowledges roughly $500 million of non-cash (it’s already on the steadiness sheet) deferred income from its fraudulently named “Full Self-Driving” (the capabilities of which supply nothing of the type). By rolling out numerous ineffective and harmful options of this homicidal software program suite, might declare that prior consumers of this nonsense acquired what they paid for, and can thus run these non-cash earnings by way of its monetary assertion, thereby once more maybe offering this money-losing firm with a fleeting second of minor profitability. As with Q3, these will probably be non-repeatable one-time good points (or, if you happen to desire, “games”), and later in 2020 the losses will resume.
We thus stay brief inventory and name choices in Tesla, which I nonetheless think about to be the largest single inventory bubble on this complete bubble market. The core factors of our Tesla brief thesis are:
Tesla has no “moat” of any sort; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary when it comes to electrical automotive know-how, whereas present automakers—in contrast to Tesla—have a decades-long “experience moat” of understanding the best way to mass-produce, distribute and repair high-quality vehicles constantly and profitably, in addition to the flexibility to subsidize losses on electrical vehicles with earnings from their standard vehicles.
By mid-to-late 2020 Tesla (which has an terrible steadiness sheet) will return to dropping cash.
Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; unit demand for its vehicles is barely being maintained by way of continuous value reductions and expiring tax incentives.
Elon Musk is a securities fraud-committing pathological liar.
As famous earlier, Q3 2019 U.S. Tesla income was down 39% (!) vs. Q3 2018 and the corporate is barely exhibiting unit supply progress (with declining income) by slashing costs and fulfilling Mannequin Three backlog in nations the place deliveries simply started (most notably the UK in Q3 and South Korea in This autumn), and the place EV
incentives are about to run out (the Netherlands till year-end). In different phrases, the Tesla “hypergrowth” story is over.
For these of you in search of a resumption of progress from Tesla’s upcoming Mannequin Y, when it’s out there in Q2 2020 it would each massively cannibalize gross sales of the Mannequin Three sedan and (by late 2020) face superior competitors from the a lot nicer electrical Audi This autumn e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 and Volkswagen ID Crozz, cheaper and out there now are the superb new all-electric Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro, extraordinarily nicely reviewed small crossovers with an EPA vary of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at costs of underneath $30,000 inclusive of the $7500 U.S. tax credit score.
In the meantime, the Mannequin Three sedan may have terrific direct “sedan competition” in 2020 from Volvo’s lovely new Polestar 2, BMW i4 and the premium model of Volkswagen’s ID.Three.
And if you happen to assume China is the key to the resumption of Tesla’s progress, let’s put that market in perspective: Tesla presently sells round 30,000 Mannequin 3s a yr there and “the story” is that avoiding the 15% tariff and 10% VAT will permit it to promote much more. Nevertheless, the rule of thumb for the elasticity of auto pricing is that each 1% value minimize ends in a gross sales improve of 1% to 2.four%. If we assume a 2.4x “elasticity multiplier,” domestically produced Mannequin 3s which might be 25% cheaper would end in annual gross sales of 48,000 Mannequin 3s (25% x 2.four = 60% greater than the present 30,000), that means Tesla’s new Chinese language manufacturing unit can be a large money-loser as it could be operating at lower than 1/Three of its preliminary 150,000-unit annual capability. Maybe realizing this, Tesla is initially mandating the acquisition of Autopilot, and thus Chinese language-made Mannequin Three will solely be barely cheaper than earlier variations. Though that can considerably enhance per-car profitability and maybe make the manufacturing unit marginally worthwhile, it would assure vastly missed progress targets and it’s “growth” (or extra precisely, the fantasy of progress) that drives Tesla’s inventory value. And good luck with rising at any worthwhile value— right here’s an awesome overview of what a dogfight the Chinese language EV market has turn into.
In the meantime, gross sales of Tesla’s highest-margin vehicles (the Fashions S&X) are down by over 30% worldwide this yr, due to cannibalization from the Mannequin Three and the just lately launched Audi e-tron and Jaguar I- Tempo, this gross sales drop is earlier than this winter’s arrival of the Mercedes EQC and completely spectacular Porsche Taycan, a number of extra electrical Audis, Mercedes and Porsches to comply with, many at beginning costs significantly beneath these of the high-end Teslas. (See the hyperlinks beneath for extra particulars.)
In the meantime, Tesla has essentially the most government departures I’ve ever seen from any firm; right here’s the astounding full record of escapees. These individuals aren’t leaving as a result of issues are going nice (and even passably) at Tesla; slightly, they’re doubtless leaving as a result of Musk is both an outright criminal or the world’s largest jerk to work for (or each). May the enterprise (if not the inventory value) be saved in its current kind if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even when Musk steps down in favor of somebody who is aware of what he’s doing, rising aggressive components (outlined in nice element beneath) and Tesla’s steadiness sheet and large extra liabilities make the corporate too late to “fix” with out main monetary and operational restructuring.
In Might Shopper Reviews utterly eviscerated the security of Tesla’s so-called “Autopilot” system; the truth is, Teslas have way more professional rata (i.e., relative to the quantity offered) lethal incidents than different comparable new luxurious vehicles; right here’s a hyperlink to these which were made public. In the meantime Shopper Report’s annual auto reliability survey ranks Tesla 27th out of 28 manufacturers and the variety of lawsuits of every type towards the corporate continues to escalate– there are actually over 700 together with one proving blatant fraud by Musk within the SolarCity buyout (if you wish to be actually entertained, learn his deposition!), an actual magnificence from Wal-Mart which was a sufferer of a secret Tesla cover-up of photo voltaic roof fires, an allegation that unsafe door handles prompted a Tesla driver to burn to loss of life in his automotive and proof that the corporate secretly rolled again battery efficiency with out compensating house owners.
So right here is Tesla’s competitors in vehicles (be aware: these hyperlinks are often up to date)…
Porsche Taycan
Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo
Porsche Macan EV to get Taycan platform and tech Audi e-tron: Electrical Has Gone Audi
Audi e-tron Sportback comes early 2020
AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (out there 2020) Audi’s This autumn e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021
Audi e-tron compact hatch to steer model’s electrification plans
Audi TT set to morph into all-electric crossover
THE AWARD-WINNING ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE Jaguar Land Rover readies electrical XJ and Vary Rover Mercedes EQC Electrical SUV Accessible Late 2019
Mercedes EQV Electrical Minivan Revealed – Accessible Early 2020 Mercedes EQB Small SUV to spice up model’s electrical line-up
Mercedes EQS will probably be constructed along with the S-Class on a brand new devoted electrical platform Mercedes to launch greater than 10 all-electric fashions by 2022
Volvo Polestar 2 Arrives early 2020
Volvo XC40 Recharge, a 408-HP Electrical SUV is available in 2020 Volvo XC-90 EV coming in 2022
Volkswagen unveils the ID.Three, its first ‘electric car for the masses’
VW’s EV crossover for U.S. will probably be known as ID4
VW Group to launch 70 pure electrical vehicles over the following decade 258-Mile Hyundai Kona electrical is out there now for underneath $40,000 239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Accessible Now For Beneath $40,000
Kia Soul (out there mid-2019) EV’s Vary Jumps to 243 Miles
Kia Europe to have six pure electrical fashions by 2022 Chevrolet Bolt Now Affords 259 Miles of Vary
GM is remodeling Cadillac into an electrical model Ford, GM rev up electrical pickup vehicles to go off Tesla
Ford efficiency EV crossover comes 2020, electrical F-150 2021, 2 midsize EV crossovers 2022 Ford to construct two European EVs primarily based on VW’s MEB platform
Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile vary is out there now
Nissan Ariya Electrical SUV Idea Is Destined for Manufacturing
BMW 1 Sequence Electrical Coming As Early As 2021 BMW iX3 electrical crossover goes on sale in 2020
New BMW i4: contemporary photographs reveal electrical saloon’s design
BMW’s 2021 iNEXT Returns In New Teasers Displaying Prototypes Manufacturing Rivian electrical pickup truck- funded by Amazon, Ford, Cox & others- is on the way in which Renault upgrades Zoe electrical automotive as competitors intensifies
Peugeot 208 to impress Europe’s small-car market Peugeot to supply EV model of recent 2008 small crossover Electrical Mini Arrives 2020
Toyota and Subaru Conform to Collectively Develop BEV-dedicated Platform and BEV SUV Mazda extends MX identify to new MX-30 electrical crossover
SEAT will launch 6 electrical and hybrid fashions and develop a brand new platform for electrical autos Opel sees electrical Corsa as key EV entry
Opel/Vauxhall will launch electrical SUV and van in 2020 Skoda accepting deposits for electrical vehicles
New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020 FCA to speculate $788M to construct new 500 EV in Italy
Maserati to launch electrical sports activities automotive
Bentley Will Supply Hybrid Variations of Each Automobile It Makes and Add an EV by 2025 Lucid Motors closes $1 billion cope with Saudi Arabia to fund electrical automotive manufacturing Meet the Canoo, a Subscription-Solely EV Pod Coming in 2021
Two new electrical vehicles from Mahindra in India by 2019; International Tesla rival e-car quickly Former Saab manufacturing unit will get new life constructing solar-powered Sono Sion electrical vehicles
And in China…
VW ramps up China electrical automotive factories, taking purpose at Tesla SAIC Volkswagen to roll out Three MEB-based EV fashions in 2020/2021
JAC-Volkswagen Launch SOL E20X, The first EV from the Joint Enterprise Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai
Audi will construct This autumn e-tron in China
FAW-Volkswagen’s Foshan plant stated to provide e-tron Sportback FAW Hongqi begins promoting electrical SUV with 400km vary for $32,000 FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electrical fashions by 2025
China’s BYD launches six new electrified autos
Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electrical car for the Chinese language market Denza Idea X Debuts; On Sale Early 2020
BAIC Goes Electrical, & Establishes Itself as a Drive in China’s New Vitality Car Future BAIC BJEV, Magna able to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV
Daimler to Begin EQC Electrical SUV Manufacturing in China in 2019 Daimler and BMW to cooperate on reasonably priced electrical automotive in China Toyota, BYD will collectively develop electrical autos for China
GAC Toyota to make all-electric C-HR GAC Aion
GAC unveils new NEV offshoot dubbed HYCAN
Chevrolet’s new China-only EV known as the Menlo and it seems to be good
Buick Rolls Out First Electrical Automobile for China
GM China raises new-energy car goal to 20 fashions by way of 2023 Nissan & Dongfeng to speculate $9.5 billion in China to spice up electrical autos Hyundai Motor Reworking Chongqing Manufacturing unit into Electrical Car Plant Nio
Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese language arm invests £800m in EV manufacturing Renault reveals collection city e-SUV Ok-ZE for China
Renault & Brilliance element electrical van lineup for China Renault varieties China electrical car enterprise with JMCG
Honda Debuts New Everus VE-1 All-Electrical SUV, However Solely For China Honda to roll out over 20 electrical fashions in China by 2025
Geely launches new electrical automotive model ‘Geometry’ – will launch 10 EVs by 2025 Mazda to roll out China-only electrical autos by 2020
Xpeng Motors sells a number of EV fashions Changan New Vitality
WM Motors/Weltmeister Chery
Seres
Byton
Enovate
China’s cute Ora R1 electrical hatch provides an enormous vary for lower than US$9,000 Singulato
JAC Motors releases new product planning, together with many NEVs Seat to make purely electrical vehicles with JAC VW in China
Iconiq Motors Hozon
EV maker Bordrin skips flash, retains real-car focus Aiways
NEVS launches electric-car output with Saab 9-Three platform in China Youxia
CHJ Automotive begins to just accept orders of Main Preferrred ONE Infiniti to launch Chinese language-built EV in 2022
Zotye Auto to roll out 10 plus NEV fashions by 2020 Thunder Energy
Leapmotor
Continental, Didi signal deal on growing EVs for China Mine Mobility (Thailand)
Right here’s Tesla’s competitors in autonomous driving…
Shopper Reviews finds Tesla’s Navigate on Autopilot is way much less competent than a human driver Navigant Ranks Tesla Final Amongst Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving
Tesla has a self-driving technique different firms deserted years in the past Waymo and Lyft accomplice to scale self-driving robotaxi service in Phoenix Jaguar and Waymo announce an electrical, totally autonomous automotive Renault, Nissan accomplice with Waymo for self-driving autos
Fiat Chrysler companions with Aurora to develop self-driving industrial vans Hyundai and Kia Spend money on Aurora
Aptiv and Hyundai Motor Group Kind Autonomous Driving Joint Enterprise
Cadillac Tremendous Cruise
Tumblr media
Units the Normal for Fingers-Free Freeway Driving Honda Joins with Cruise and Common Motors to Construct New Autonomous Car SoftBank Imaginative and prescient Fund to Make investments $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise
Ford-VW alliance with Argo might redraw self-driving sector
VW faucets Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving vehicles in China Audi to hitch Daimler, BMW self-driving tech alliance
Daimler’s heavy vehicles begin self-driving a number of the approach
SoftBank, Toyota’s self-driving automotive enterprise provides Mazda, Suzuki, Subaru Corp, Isuzu Daihatsu Volvo, Nvidia increase autonomous driving collaboration
Continental & NVIDIA Associate to Allow Manufacturing of Synthetic Intelligence Self-Driving Vehicles Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million vehicles (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads constructing HD maps
Nissan provides Japan model of Infiniti Q50 hands-free freeway driving
Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and make the most of imaginative and prescient information for crowdsourced mapping Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs Hyundai to start out autonomous ride-sharing service in Calif.
Uber unveils next-generation Volvo self-driving automotive
Baidu kicks off trial operation of Apollo robotaxi in Changsha Toyota to hitch Baidu’s open-source self-driving platform
Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving options Baidu plans to mass produce Stage four self-driving vehicles with BAIC by 2021
Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Stage four autonomy for China
Geely selects Volvo, Veoneer three way partnership as autonomous tech provider BMW and Tencent to develop self-driving automotive know-how collectively
BMW, NavInfo bolster partnership in HD map service for autonomous vehicles in China FAW Hongqi readies electrical SUV providing Stage four autonomous driving
Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Car Joint Enterprise Huawei seems to be to self-driving vehicles in bid to broaden AI focus
BYD companions with Huawei for autonomous driving
Pony.ai, GAC Group launches Aion LX’s degree four self-driving model
Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software program for Self-Driving Vehicles Deutsche Publish to Deploy Check Fleet Of Totally Autonomous Supply Vehicles ZF autonomous EV enterprise names first buyer
Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform provides autonomy as much as Stage four Groupe PSA’s secure and intuitive autonomous automotive examined by most of the people
Mitsubishi Electrical to Exhibit Autonomous-driving Applied sciences in New xAUTO Check Car Apple acquires self-driving startup Drive.ai
Momenta – Constructing Autonomous Driving Brains JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electrical Vehicles NAVYA Unveils First Totally Autonomous Taxi
Fujitsu and HERE to accomplice on superior mobility companies and autonomous driving Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Associate for Autonomous Car Know-how
First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi
Nuro’s Robotic Supply Vans Are Arriving Earlier than Self-Driving Vehicles
Right here’s the place Tesla’s competitors will get its battery cells…
Panasonic (making offers with a number of automakers) LG
Samsung
SK Innovation Toshiba CATL
BYD
Northvolt (backed by VW & BMW) Farasis
Akasol
Cenat Wanxiang Svolt
Romeo Energy
Toyota accelerates goal for EV with solid-state battery to 2020
ProLogium Know-how Will Produce First Subsequent Technology Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs BMW invests in Strong Energy solid-state batteries
Ford invests in Strong Energy solid-state batteries Hyundai Motor growing solid-state EV batteries
Most automotive makers will use these battery cells to fabricate their very own packs. Listed below are some examples:
Daimler begins constructing electrical automotive batteries in Tuscaloosa – one in every of eight battery factories GM inaugurates battery meeting plant in Shanghai
PSA to assemble batteries for hybrid, electrical vehicles in Slovakia Honda Companions on Common Motors’ Subsequent Gen Battery Improvement
France’s Saft plans manufacturing of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020
Sokon goals to be world supplier of battery, electrical motor, electrical management methods BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre
BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery manufacturing unit in Shenyang
Rimac goes to mass produce batteries and electrical motors for OEMs
Right here’s Tesla’s competitors in charging networks…
Electrify America is spending $2 billion constructing a high-speed U.S. charging community EVgo is constructing a U.S. charging community
191 U.S. Porsche sellers are putting in 350kw chargers ChargePoint to equip Daimler sellers with electrical automotive chargers
GM and Bechtel plan to construct hundreds of electrical automotive charging stations throughout the US Ford introduces 12,000 station charging community, groups with Amazon on residence set up Volta is rolling out a free charging community
Ionity has over 150 European 350kw charging stations
E.ON and Virta launch one of many largest clever EV charging networks in Europe Volkswagen plans 36,000 charging factors for electrical vehicles all through Europe Smatric has over 400 charging factors in Austria
Allego has a whole bunch of chargers in Europe PodPoint UK charging stations
BP Chargemaster/Polar is constructing stations throughout the UK Instavolt is rolling out a UK charging community
Fastned constructing 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe
Deutsche Telekom launches set up of charging community for e-cars Shell begins rollout of ultrafast electrical automotive chargers in Europe
Whole to construct 1,000 high-powered charging factors at 300 European service-stations Volkswagen, FAW Group, JAC Motors, Star Cost formally announce new EV charging JV BP, Didi Soar on Electrical-Car Charging Bandwagon
Evie rolls out ultrafast charging community in Australia
Evie Networks To Set up 42 Extremely-Quick Charging Websites In Australia
And right here’s Tesla’s competitors in storage batteries…
Panasonic
Samsung
LG
BYD
AES + Siemens (Fluence)
GE
Bosch
Mitsubishi Hitachi
NEC
Toshiba
ABB
Saft
Johnson Contols
EnerSys
SOLARWATT
Schneider Electrical
Sonnen
Kyocera
Kokam
NantEnergy
Eaton
Nissan
Tesvolt
Kreisel
Leclanche
Lockheed Martin
EOS Vitality Storage
ESS
UET
electrIQ Energy Belectric Stem
ENGIE
Redflow
Renault Primus Energy
Simpliphi Energy redT Vitality Storage Murata Bluestorage
Adara Blue Planet
Tabuchi Electrical Aggreko Orison
Moixa Powin Vitality Nidec Powervault Schmid
24M Ecoult Innolith
LithiumWerks
Natron Vitality
Vitality Vault Ambri
But regardless of all that deep-pocketed competitors, maybe you need to purchase shares of Tesla since you imagine in its administration workforce. Actually???
Elon Musk knew SolarCity confronted a ‘liquidity crisis’ at time of 2016 deal, authorized paperwork present Musk’s empire was in peril in 2016, and new paperwork reveal the determined plan to reserve it
Elon Musk knew SolarCity was going broke earlier than merger with Tesla Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Prices
Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”
Extra Damaged Guarantees From Tesla
Tesla SEC Correspondence Reveals A Sample Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Deceptive Disclosures Tesla: Test Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date
As Musk Hyped and Joyful-Talked Traders, Tesla Stored Quiet A few 12 months-Lengthy SEC Probe The Fact Is Catching Up With Tesla
With Deceptive Messages And Buyer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall Who You Gonna Consider? Elon Musk’s Phrases Or Your Personal Mendacity Eyes?
How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Security Claims About Autopilot and Vehicles When Is Sufficient Sufficient With Elon Musk?
Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Earlier than Tesla Inventory Sale Tesla Continues To Mislead Customers
Tesla Misses The Level With Fortune Autopilot Story
Tesla Timeline Reveals Musk’s Morality Is Extremely Handy
Tesla Scares Clients With Nugatory NDAs, The Each day Kanban Talks To Legal professionals Tesla: O, What A Tangled Net We Weave When First We Apply To Deceive Tesla’s Monetary Shenanigans
Tesla: A Failure To Talk Can You Actually Belief Tesla?
Elon Musk Seems To Have Misled Traders On Tesla’s Most Latest Convention Name
Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station
So in abstract, Tesla is about to face an enormous onslaught of competitors with a market cap bigger than
Ford’s and GM’s regardless of promoting fewer than 400,000 vehicles a yr whereas Ford and GM make billions of dollars promoting 6 million and over eight million autos respectively. Thus this cash-burning Musk vainness undertaking is price vastly lower than its over $50 billion enterprise worth and—due to over $30 billion in debt, buy and lease obligations—might ultimately be price “zero.”
from Job Search Tips https://jobsearchtips.net/elon-musk-is-a-securities-fraud-committing-pathological-liar-shortseller/
0 notes
hostingnewsfeed · 5 years
Text
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
New Post has been published on http://webhostingtop3.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
Tumblr media
March 29, 2019
Friends and Fellow Investors:
For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)
I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…
Tumblr media
…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:
Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…
We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:
Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.
Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.
Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business
Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.
In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.
Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).
Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…
In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.
What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.
In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…
Tumblr media
…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:
Tumblr media
Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.
Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!
How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:
Tumblr media
Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.
But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?
I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…
Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.
Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.
The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.
And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.
Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).
So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…
THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE
2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship
VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade
Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now
Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019
AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)
Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021
Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019
Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan
The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric
New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019
Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019
Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022
258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000
239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000
Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles
Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022
Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand
Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now
Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020
The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3
BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020
New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing
BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025
Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development
Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market
Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019
Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s
New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range
Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe
Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021
DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost
ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019
Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020
SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles
Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020
2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model
Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models
New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020
MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020
Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati
Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022
Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022
Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025
Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint
Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021
Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification
Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan
Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production
Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon
Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar
Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years
SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range
Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon
Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production
EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis
And in China…
VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars
Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai
Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022
BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV
BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019
2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy
Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market
BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant
BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market
BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV
Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019
GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023
Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles
Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020
Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market
NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag
536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X
NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7
BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China
Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China
Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production
SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG
Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China
Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China
Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025
Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000
Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV
New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km
Changan building large scale NEV factory
Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles
XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000
XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019
WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market
Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China
Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou
BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019
DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV
GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models
Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020
Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China
Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range
Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles
Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds
FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025
JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers
ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion
Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market
Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01
Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV
All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China
Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production
CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production
Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars
Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power
JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China
Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund
Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars
Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China
Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…
Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving
What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving
Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service
Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car
Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000
Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars
Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership
Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars
Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving
GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019
Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle
SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise
Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation
Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars
VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China
An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving
Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture
Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class
Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020
Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way
Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration
Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars
Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps
Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020
Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping
Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs
Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design
Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform
Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions
Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021
Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China
BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving
Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas
Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars
Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021
Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year
Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles
ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer
Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4
Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public
Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture
Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019
JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks
NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi
Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving
Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology
First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi
Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars
Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…
LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020
LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China
Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show
SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022
New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes
Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories
Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China
Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota
CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory
CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany
BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants
GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai
Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production
VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery
Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development
Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory
France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020
Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden
ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant
Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant
Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems
BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre
BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang
BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company
Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’
VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment
Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries
Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations
UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries
Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs
Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees
Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production
Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest
ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs
Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…
Panasonic
Samsung
LG
BYD
AES + Siemens (Fluence)
GE
Bosch
Mitsubishi Hitachi
NEC
Toshiba
ABB
Saft
Johnson Contols
EnerSys
SOLARWATT
Schneider Electric
sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)
Kokam
Sharp
Eaton
Nissan
Tesvolt
Kreisel
Leclanche
Lockheed Martin
EOS Energy Storage
ESS
UET
electrIQ Power
Belectric
Stem
ENGIE
Exergonix
Redflow
Renault
Fluidic Energy
Primus Power
Simpliphi Power
redT Energy Storage
Murata
Bluestorage
Adara
Blue Planet
Clean Energy Storage Inc.
Tabuchi Electric
Younicos
Orison
Moixa
Powin Energy
Nidec
Powervault
Schmid
24M
Ecoult
Innolith
LithiumWerks
Natron Energy
And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…
Electrify America: Our Plan
EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US
Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.
Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.
ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC
Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging
BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network
E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020
Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations
Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational
Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas
ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total
UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020
UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network
Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe
Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany
ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger
Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion
BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster
Total planning EV charging points at its French stations
VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China
Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???
Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges
Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”
Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures
Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date
As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe
The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla
With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall
Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?
How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars
When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?
Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale
Debunking The Tesla Mythology
Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers
Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story
Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient
Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers
Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash
Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive
I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3
Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans
Tesla: A Failure To Communicate
Can You Really Trust Tesla?
Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call
Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station
Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations
So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”
Elsewhere among our short positions…
We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…
…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.
Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.
When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.
We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:
Tumblr media
And now for the fund’s long positions…
We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.
We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.
We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).
Thanks and regards,
Mark Spiegel
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
0 notes
smartwebhostingblog · 5 years
Text
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
New Post has been published on http://webhostingtop3.com/stanphyl-capital-letter-march-2019/
Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2019
Tumblr media
March 29, 2019
Friends and Fellow Investors:
For March 2019, the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 14.6%. Since inception on June 1, 2011, the fund is up approximately 85.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 148.5% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 102.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 8.2% net annually vs. 12.3% for the S&P 500 and 9.4% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two. (If you’re an investor in the fund, you should have your 2018 K-1 next week.)
I continue to believe that what we’ve seen since the market’s late December low is a bear market rally, albeit a fierce one. The U.S. economic slowdown is in its early stages and we’re a long way from QE4; in fact, the Fed is still removing approximately $50 billion a month from its balance sheet and – despite the taper announced in March – will continue removing tens of billions of dollars a month through September, while real short-term U.S. interest rates are positive for the first time in over a decade. We thus remain short the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM), an index which-despite incorporating almost a full year of drastically lower corporate tax rates-has a trailing twelve-month GAAP PE ratio of around 43 (and I strongly suspect the “E” will go down this year) and a record-high percentage of its constituent companies losing money…
Tumblr media
…along with a median EV-to-EBIT that’s (almost literally!) off the charts:
Elsewhere in the fund’s short positions…
We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short position are:
Tesla has no electric vehicle “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of design or technology, while existing automakers-unlike Tesla-have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably.
Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; demand for its existing models has peaked and it will have to raise billions of dollars to produce new ones.
Tesla is again losing a lot of money with a terrible balance sheet while suddenly confronting massive competition in every aspect of its business
Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.
In mid-March, seemingly in response to its sliding stock price (which may have been approaching Elon Musk’s margin call territory), Tesla rushed out an ill-prepared Model Y unveiling on extremely short notice, inspiring its chief engineer to immediately quit. Supposed to be a small electric SUV/crossover, the event showed only a fake clay model and a bodywork-disguised Model 3, and was a complete embarrassment beautifully summarized here by Zero Hedge. By the time the Model Y is available in late 2020/early 2021 (if Tesla is still in business then), it will face superior competition from the much nicer Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, and Mercedes EQC.
Tesla’s backlog is now gone and new orders severely lag, and in response this month it finally introduced a $35,000 version of the Model 3. Despite the fact that this car has just 220 miles of range and comes only in black with a cheap cloth interior, I estimate it will have an EBIT loss of at least $3000 before options, which is undoubtedly why Tesla is delaying its arrival despite taking deposits for it. Tesla also introduced a 240-mile version for $37,500; that one may “only” lose around $1500 but is less likely to be “optioned up,” as it has power seats and a nicer interior (although the only standard color remains black).
Also keep in mind that since January Tesla has slashed thousands of dollars from the prices of all its other cars – longer-range Model 3s as well as the S and X, so throughout 2019 (vs. the peak quarters of Q3 & Q4 2018) Tesla will experience a deadly combination of declining volume and declining ASPs. In January, the company reported a Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now as ASPs and volume decline while under-reserved warranty expenses soar, Tesla shall slide back into losses that I estimate on a GAAP basis will be well over $1 billion for 2019. That said…
In yet another example of typical Tesla “wise-guy scamminess,” the Q1 2019 GAAP loss may not be anywhere near as bad as it should be, as there’s a real chance that Tesla may use its sudden redefinition of “Full Self-Driving” (which, according to Tesla but NOT the customers who paid for that feature, now means nothing of the sort) in order to recognize hundreds of millions of dollars of deferred revenue to which it’s nowhere *near* entitled. See this excellent Twitter thread.
What else did this alleged “growth company” do in March? Well, after initially announcing (in a spur-of-the-moment cost-saving measure) that it was closing 90% of its retail stores, Tesla soon backtracked and decided to close “only” around half of them, most likely when someone informed Musk – who is truly a business moron – that the company was on the hook for all those leases anyway.
In late February, the SEC finally lost patience with Elon Musk’s continual violation of last year’s settlement stemming from his fraudulent “$420 buyout” tweet and asked the presiding judge to hold him in contempt, to which Musk (of course) swiftly responded by further mocking the SEC. Written arguments were presented by both sides in March and the presiding judge will hold a hearing on April 4th. Despite the terrible precedent Musk’s behavior sets for the CEOs of any other public company, I don’t have much faith that justice will be served here by either the court or Tesla’s fully complicit board; of course the latter’s source of complicity is clear: this is the most grotesquely overpaid group of corporate whores I’ve ever seen on the board of any public company…
Tumblr media
…and here’s what Musk gets for his shareholders’ money from his new figurehead of an “independent” Chairwoman:
Tumblr media
Musk’s public persona of impetuous stupidity as exemplified by his Twitter account undoubtedly provides an illuminating window into his private persona. Tesla has the most executive departures I’ve ever seen from any company (here’s the astounding full list), a dubious achievement that continued in March when in addition to the aforementioned departure of its chief engineer, still more folks departed from its already gutted finance department, as well as multiple other departments. This followed February’s departure of its general counsel after fewer than two months on the job, which followed January’s departure of its CFO, which followed the departures of a massive number of financial, manufacturing and engineering execs in 2018 and 2017. These people aren’t leaving because things are going great (or even passably) at Tesla; rather, they’re likely leaving because Musk is either an outright crook or the world’s biggest jerk to work for (or both). Could the business (if not the stock price) be saved in its present form if he left? Nope, it’s too late. Even if Musk steps down in favor of someone who knows what he’s doing, emerging competitive factors (outlined in great detail below) and Tesla’s balance sheet make the company too late to “fix” without major financial and operational restructuring.
Also in March, Navigant Consulting came out with its annual ranking of autonomous driving capabilities, and just as last year Tesla ranked dead last among active automakers and suppliers. Meanwhile, the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continues to escalate – there are now over 500!
How poorly is Tesla run? The quality of its products is one indication, and in February Consumer Reports published its annual auto reliability survey and guess who finished second-to-last? As one wag said on Twitter: you can now officially call Tesla “the Cadillac of electric cars”:
Tumblr media
Consumer Reports’ awful Tesla reliability data jibes with the latest survey from True Delta, which ranks Tesla last among all available vehicles, while in September, British magazine What Car? ranked Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own.
But what about all those Tesla owners who tell you how much they love their cars despite the service and reliability problems?
I’ve always argued that Tesla owners (and TSLA bulls) confuse “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. For instance, among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (OTCPK:POAHY) (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys, it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost roughly the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and in the U.S. include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! Porsche has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them, and in March, Porsche announced that it already has over 20,000 orders. So Model S sales are about to be *so* dead. And if that’s not enough, a crossover version of the Taycan will follow soon thereafter, as will an all-electric version of the next Maycan. So Model X sales are *also* about to be *so* dead, especially in light of the other electric crossovers and SUVs discussed below…
Porsche’s offerings are just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition that’s about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. The Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace (see below) are already crushing S&X sales in the European countries where they’re available, and the Audi arrives here in the U.S. in April. The e-tron is an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $15,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3,750 to (eventual) $7,500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (Although the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 225 miles vs. 295 miles for the Model X, the Audi will charge faster.) The e-tron received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow it: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in late 2020) the Q4 e-tron small electric crossover.
Also currently in showrooms is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $20,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3,750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7,500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.
The Mercedes EQC (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY) all-electric SUV will be widely available in Europe in the summer of 2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be nearly $30,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ (by then) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.
And let’s not count out BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY); here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4 and iX3.
Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona (OTCPK:HYMLF) (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future negative impact on Tesla’s Model Y (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).
So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…
THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I-PACE
2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship
VW Group to launch 70 pure electric cars over the next decade
Audi e-tron electric SUV is available now
Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019
AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)
Audi’s Q4 e-tron previews entry-level EV for 2021
Porsche Electric Taycan Launches Late 2019
Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo to launch in 2020 after Taycan Sedan
The next generation of the Porsche Macan will be electric
New VW ID. hatch: order books for VW electric car open on May 2019
Mercedes EQC Electric SUV Available Mid-to-Late 2019
Mercedes to launch more than 10 all-electric models by 2022
258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric is available now for under $40,000
239-Mile Kia Niro EV is Available Now For Under $40,000
Kia Soul (available mid-2019) EV’s Range Jumps to 243 Miles
Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022
Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand
Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now
Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020
The 2020 Volvo Polestar 2 Is Priced to Beat Tesla’s Best-Selling Model 3
BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020
New BMW i4: Tesla-rivalling coupe seen winter testing
BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025
Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development
Peugeot 208 to electrify Europe’s small-car market
Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019
Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s
New Renault Zoe to feature 400km range
Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe
Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021
DS 3 Crossback will give PSA’s upscale brand an electric boost
ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019
Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020
SEAT will launch 6 electric and hybrid models and develop a new platform for electric vehicles
Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020
2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand’s first all-electric model
Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models
New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020
MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020
Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati
Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022
Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022
Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025
Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint
Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021
Korando will lead SsangYong’s push into electrification
Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan
Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production
Rivian (electric pick-up truck maker) Announces $700M Investment Round Led By Amazon
Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar
Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years
SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range
Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon
Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production
EV startup Canoo will only sell cars on a subscription basis
And in China…
VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars
Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai
Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022
BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV
BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019
2019 BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with prices starting RMB89,900 after subsidy
Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market
BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant
BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market
BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV
Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019
GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023
Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles
Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020
Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market
NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag
536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range at 1/2 the price of Tesla X
NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7
BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China
Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China
Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production
SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG
Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China
Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China
Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025
Geely all-new BEV sedan Jihe A starts at RMB150,000
Geely unveils GE11 compact BEV
New Geely Emgrand GSe crossover has EV range up to 400km
Changan building large scale NEV factory
Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles
XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000
XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019
WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market
Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China
Chery’s second EV plant open in Dezhou
BYTON to launch mass-produced M-Byte into market at the end of 2019
DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV
GAC NE to roll out 12 new models for Aion series, including solar-powered models
Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020
Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (NYSE:ORA) In China
Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range
Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles
Hongqi launches E-HS3 BEV SUV with AWD option, 390km range and 0-100kh/h in 5.9 seconds
FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025
JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers
ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion
Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market
Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01
Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV
All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China
Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production
CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production
Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars
Qoros Auto’s new owner plans to be an EV power
JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China
Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund
Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars
Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China
Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…
Navigant Ranks Tesla Last Among Automakers & Suppliers for Automated Driving
What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving
Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service
Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car
Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000
Nissan-Renault alliance to tie up with Waymo on self-driving cars
Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership
Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars
Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving
GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019
Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle
SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise
Ford and VW Discuss Autonomous Car Team-Up at a $4 Billion Valuation
Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars
VW taps Baidu’s Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China
An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving
Daimler, BMW deepen cooperation with self-driving venture
Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class
Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020
Daimler’s heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way
Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration
Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars
Intel’s Mobileye has 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps
Toyota’s moonshot: Self-driving car for sale – in 2020
Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping
Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs
Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design
Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform
Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions
Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021
Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China
BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving
Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas
Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars
Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021
Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year
Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles
ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer
Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4
Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public
Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture
Self-driving startup Momenta ready to launch fully automated driving solution in Q3 2019
JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks
NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi
Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving
Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology
First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi
Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars
Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…
LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020
LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China
Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show
SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022
New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes
Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories
Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China
Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota
CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory
CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany
BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants
GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai
Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production
VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery
Honda Partners on General Motors’ Next Gen Battery Development
Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk’s Gigafactory
France’s Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020
Northvolt making ground on Gigafactory in Sweden
ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe’s biggest battery plant
Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant
Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems
BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre
BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang
BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company
Toyota promises auto battery ‘game-changer’
VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment
Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries
Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations
UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries
Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs
Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees
Evergrande acquires Cenat battery production
Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest
ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs
Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…
Panasonic
Samsung
LG
BYD
AES + Siemens (Fluence)
GE
Bosch
Mitsubishi Hitachi
NEC
Toshiba
ABB
Saft
Johnson Contols
EnerSys
SOLARWATT
Schneider Electric
sonnenBatterie (acquired by Shell)
Kokam
Sharp
Eaton
Nissan
Tesvolt
Kreisel
Leclanche
Lockheed Martin
EOS Energy Storage
ESS
UET
electrIQ Power
Belectric
Stem
ENGIE
Exergonix
Redflow
Renault
Fluidic Energy
Primus Power
Simpliphi Power
redT Energy Storage
Murata
Bluestorage
Adara
Blue Planet
Clean Energy Storage Inc.
Tabuchi Electric
Younicos
Orison
Moixa
Powin Energy
Nidec
Powervault
Schmid
24M
Ecoult
Innolith
LithiumWerks
Natron Energy
And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…
Electrify America: Our Plan
EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US
Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.
Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.
ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC
Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging
BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network
E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020
Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations
Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational
Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas
ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total
UK’s Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020
UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network
Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe
Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany
ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger
Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion
BP buys UK’s largest car charging firm Chargemaster
Total planning EV charging points at its French stations
VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China
Yet, despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???
Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges
Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”
Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures
Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date
As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe
The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla
With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall
Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk’s Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?
How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars
When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?
Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale
Debunking The Tesla Mythology
Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers
Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story
Tesla Timeline Shows Musk’s Morality Is Highly Convenient
Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers
Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash
Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive
I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3
Tesla’s Financial Shenanigans
Tesla: A Failure To Communicate
Can You Really Trust Tesla?
Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla’s Most Recent Conference Call
Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station
Tesla’s Amazing Powerwall Reservations
So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford (NYSE:F) and nearly matches General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 8.4 million vehicles, respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and-thanks to roughly $34 billion in debt, purchase and lease obligations – may eventually be worth “zero.”
Elsewhere among our short positions…
We continue (since late 2012) to hold a short position in the Japanese yen via the Proshares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS) as Japan continues to print nearly 5% of its monetary base per year after nearly quadrupling that base since early 2013. In fact, of the world’s three largest central banks (the Fed, ECB and BOJ), the BOJ is now the only one still conducting QE, and in February, it reiterated its intent to continue doing so. One result of this insane policy (in 2018, the BOJ bought approximately 67% of JGB issuance and in 2019 anticipates buying 70%!) is there are days when no 10-year JGBs trade in the cash market! The BOJ’s balance sheet is now larger than the entire Japanese economy – it owns approximately 43% of all government debt…
…and over 75% (!) of the country’s ETFs by market value.
Just the interest on Japan’s debt consumes 8.9% of its 2019 budget despite the fact that it pays a blended rate of less than 1%. What happens when Japan gets the 2% inflation it’s looking for and those rates average, say, 3%? Interest on the debt alone would consume nearly 27% of the budget and Japan would have to default! But on the way to that 3% rate the BOJ will try to cap those rates by printing increasingly larger amounts of money to buy more of that debt, thereby sending the yen into its death spiral.
When we first entered this position, USD/JPY was around 79; it’s currently in the 110s, and long term, I think it’s headed a lot higher – ultimately back to the 250s of the 1980s or perhaps even the 300s of the ’70s before a default and reset occur.
We continue to hold a short position in the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:BNDX), comprised of dollar-hedged non-US investment grade debt (over 80% government) with a ridiculously low “SEC yield” of 0.81% at an average effective maturity of 9.4 years. As I’ve written since putting on this position in July 2016, I believe this ETF is a great way to short what may be the biggest asset bubble in history, as with Eurozone inflation now printing 1.5% annually, these are long-term bonds with significantly negative real yields. In mid-December, the ECB halted quantitative easing, thereby removing the biggest source of support for those bonds’ bubble prices. Currently, the net borrow cost for BNDX provides us with a positive rebate of over 1.7% a year (more than covering the yield we pay out), and as I see around 5% potential downside to this position (vs. our basis, plus the cost of carry) vs. at least 20% (unlevered) upside, I think it’s a terrific place to sit and wait for the inevitable denouement of this insanity:
Tumblr media
And now for the fund’s long positions…
We continue to own Westell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:WSTL), a 43% gross margin telecom equipment maker (of primarily small-cell repeaters) in turnaround mode. In February, Westell reported a mediocre FY 2019 third quarter, with revenue down 22% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially, and although it burned around $970,000 in free cash flow, it ended the quarter with $27.1 million in cash ($1.75/share) and no debt, and on the follow-up conference call, management explicitly indicated that it expects to return to break-even or better within a year. Westell sells at an enterprise value of only around 0.10x (i.e. 10% of) revenue, but in addition to the (hopefully soon-to-reverse) cash burn, the “hair” on this company is the long-term decline in revenue (which now appears to have stabilized and should soon reverse), a cash pile that could potentially be squandered on dumb acquisitions (a risk with all cash-rich companies) and – perhaps most annoyingly – a dual share class, with voting control held by descendants of the founder. However, on the conference call, management claimed the controlling family is open to merging the two share classes, and Westell is so cheap on an EV-to-revenue basis that if management can’t start generating meaningful profits, it seems primed for a strategic buyer to acquire it. An acquisition price of 1x run-rate revenue (on an EV basis) would be around $4.50/share.
We continue to own Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a designer and manufacturer of point-to-point microwave systems for telecom companies, which in February reported a decent Q2 for FY 2019, with revenue up 2% year-over-year (adjusted for a GAAP-mandated change in revenue recognition to ASC 606; unadjusted revenue was up 5.5%). For FY 2019, the company guided to $250-$255 million of revenue and non-GAAP EBITDA of $12.5-$13 million, and because of its approximately $330 million of U.S. NOLs, $10 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $214 million in foreign NOLs and $2 million of foreign tax credit carryforwards, Aviat’s income will be tax-free for many years; thus, GAAP EBITDA less capex essentially equals “earnings.” So if the non-GAAP number will be $12.5 million and we take out $1.7 million in stock comp and $6 million in capex, we get $4.8 million in earnings multiplied by, say, 16 = approximately $77 million; if we then add in at least $30 million of expected year-end net cash and divide by 5.4 million shares, we get an earning-based valuation of around $20/share. However, the real play here is as a buyout candidate; Aviat’s closest pure-play competitor, Ceragon (NASDAQ:CRNT) sells at an EV of approximately 0.7x revenue, which for AVNW (based on the mid-point of 2019 guidance) would be around $207 million. If we value Aviat’s massive NOLs at a modest $10 million (due to change-in-control diminution in their value), the company would be worth $217 million divided by 5.4 million shares = $40/share.
We continue to own the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA), which I first bought in late 2017 because agricultural products were the most beaten-down sector I could find that wasn’t a “buggy whip” (something on the way to obsolescence) or cyclical from a demand standpoint. The “DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index” on which DBA is based is at its lowest level since 2002, and I continue to anticipate a major bounce following a favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks. Trump is very conscious of the fact that farm states constitute a significant part of his political base and the China deal implications for U.S. ag products would be huge. Meanwhile, extensive midwestern U.S. flooding (a real tragedy for those affected) put a bit of a tailwind behind this ETF in mid-March (although it subsequently surrendered some of those gains).
Thanks and regards,
Mark Spiegel
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
0 notes