#( the struggle between picking between mack and austin ) | Explore Tumblr posts and blogs

junker-town · 5 years ago

Text

The 6 best NFL destinations for free agent Philip Rivers

Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images

Philip Rivers won’t be a Charger for the first time since 2004. Here’s where he could end up.

For the first time since 2004, Philip Rivers won’t be a Charger. Los Angeles officially parted ways with the quarterback who became the face of the franchise. Over 16 seasons, Rivers was a good and occasionally great player who, through awful luck and questionable decisions, could never get to a Super Bowl.

Rivers is now set to hit the free agent marketplace at a spritely 38 years old and coming off one of his worst seasons as a pro. It marked the third season in which he’s thrown at least 20 interceptions. His 3.9 percent touchdown rate was the lowest of his career as a full-time starter.

The veteran has bounced back from similar downturns in the past. He was 2013’s Comeback Player of the Year after leading the NFL in completion rate. He looked washed in 2016 after throwing a league-high 21 picks, but returned in 2017 and 2018 behind efficient, above-average seasons.

With the threat of retirement dangling over his head, there’s no guarantee those numbers will rebound — but a change of scenery may be the key to unlocking one last playoff run. Where could Rivers fit in an NFL landscape swamped with experienced passers and an influx of solid young prospects? Let’s take a look at the most obvious fits, based on a few different criteria.

The best offense for Rivers’ skills: Cleveland Browns

Rivers is a pass-heavy quarterback who has thrown more than 35 passes per game over the last decade. That’s the kind of profile that most NFL teams are looking for as offenses lean even harder into the air raid-ish tendencies that have taken over playbooks.

Returning Rivers back to his Pro Bowl self may be as simple as trimming his route tree and dialing back on deep throws. Per SIS, his 73 passes of 20+ yards were fourth-most in the league in 2019, but his 32.9 percent completion rate on those throws slotted him between Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston. Instead, he’s thrived in the late stage of his career on throws between 10-19 yards downfield.

Who can give him that kind of mid-range attack? How about a Cleveland Browns offense with a pass-vacuum safety net (Jarvis Landry), a catch-anything field stretcher (Odell Beckham Jr.), and a linebacker-juking tight end (David Njoku)?

The 2019 Browns opted for a steady diet of intermediate passes for Baker Mayfield. That was under the short-lived Freddie Kitchens regime, which lasted only one year. His firing gave way to former Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski’s reign as head coach — and his offenses threw deep even less than Mayfield despite having players like Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen in the lineup.

Chance it happens: 0.5/10

This is an unrealistic scenario barring some significant shakeups. Stefanski spent his 2019 turning Kirk Cousins into the best version of himself. He was brought to Cleveland to do the same with Mayfield, the No. 1 pick of the 2018 NFL Draft. The Browns don’t need Rivers and Rivers probably doesn’t want to be a Brown. In terms of pure fit, however, the best place for the former Charger to wrap up his career on a high note may just be Northeast Ohio.

The best combination of need and playmaking talent: Indianapolis Colts

The most successful version of Rivers is the one who is allowed to take shots but is also flanked by short-range options. That means he’s best served by a pass-catching tailback — i.e. LaDainian Tomlinson back in the 2000s or Austin Ekeler now — and a reliable tight end who can keep safeties anchored in the middle of the field without floating too far back.

Which team has a deep threat, a possession receiver masquerading as a tight end, and a running back capable of creating havoc? The Chiefs do, for sure, but they’re pretty well set at QB. If we take teams with entrenched QBs out of the picture, the top supporting cast may well be in the AFC South. The Indianapolis Colts can offer Rivers a rock-solid offensive line that allowed sacks on just five percent of dropbacks and All-Pro wideout T.Y. Hilton.

Rivers would also team with the dynamic tailback duo of Marlon Mack (1,091 rush yards in 2019) and Nyheim Hines (44 receptions). He’d be able to fall back on Pro Bowl tight end Jack Doyle in the middle of the field when his deep-play choices fail to pan out. Even if the Colts lack depth at their skill positions, Rivers could make the most out of the talent Indianapolis already has — all while filling the gap between Andrew Luck’s tenure and whomever winds up being the team’s quarterback of the future.

Chance it happens: 4/10

The Colts got half a good season out of Jacoby Brissett before injuries and regression indicated he may be better off in a backup role. Adding Rivers to the mix could push him to new heights or give the team an insurance policy if he falls apart late in the year again. Would a 5-2 Indianapolis team miss the postseason again if Rivers were waiting in the wings?

The best landing spot to win a Super Bowl: Chicago Bears

Rivers’ best bet at a Super Bowl ring in 2020 may be as a backup. However, there are a handful of opportunities where he could work his way to the top of the QB depth chart and guide a ready-made roster to the postseason.

The Chicago Bears can offer an array of playmakers who’d been previously lured to the Midwest in what appears to have been a futile effort to help Mitchell Trubisky’s development. The combination of Tarik Cohen and Trey Burton would surround Rivers with an athletic pair who can break off for big gains. Allen Robinson, whose career has been plagued by underwhelming quarterback play, would get the chance to prove himself as an upper-tier receiver alongside a big-armed passer.

The Bears’ defense backslid a bit in 2019, but is still loaded with players like Khalil Mack, Eddie Jackson, Kyle Fuller, and Roquan Smith. A steady presence behind center could provide an important cantilever to that championship-caliber unit.

Chance it happens: 3.5/10

General manager Ryan Pace says Trubisky is his starter for 2020. That doesn’t mean he won’t at least do his due diligence on this year’s crop of available quarterbacks, especially after the former No. 2 overall pick struggled mightily in 2019.

The best opportunity to jumpstart a rebuild: Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers are on the brink of a teardown, and Cam Newton can be released or traded while counting just $2 million against the team’s cap. Should team owner David Tepper decide jettisoning both head coach Ron Rivera and longtime tight end Greg Olsen wasn’t enough, Newton may be next to go. Tepper currently doesn’t sound all that enthused about his former MVP, either.

Newton’s departure would leave the club with two interesting, but flawed, young passers (Kyle Allen, Will Grier) and a draft slot that’s not quite high enough to snipe a top-tier quarterback (No. 7 overall). Rivers could be the stopgap solution new head coach Matt Rhule uses to bring his still-developing quarterbacks along slowly.

While he wouldn’t have the downfield weapons the Bears, Browns, or Colts could provide — D.J. Moore’s ongoing breakout aside — he’d play with tailback whose 2019 season would fit nicely among Tomlinson’s mid-2000s prime. Christian McCaffrey would excel in Rivers’ short-yardage passing game, leaving room for Moore to flourish in the open space behind him.

Chance it happens: 3/10

It all depends on what happens with Newton, but it sounds like the Panthers are barreling toward a change. Even then, Carolina could opt for a younger reclamation project like Winston or Marcus Mariota.

The best opportunity to annoy everyone in the NFL: New England Patriots

Nigh-insufferable fanbase meets nigh-insufferable quarterback.

Philip Rivers on a 5-8 team thrashing a 4-9 team and trash talking with the little tantrum hands move as he screams "NINETY YARD TOUCHDOWN" after Yannick was nice enough to pick him up off the ground. Truly the pic.twitter.com/FC7XvBagtf

— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) December 10, 2019

May I present to you Tom Brady’s replacement: New England Patriots quarterback Philip Rivers.

Just imagine Rivers joining the franchise that ended his playoff runs in 2006, 2007, and 2018. New England follows up the Tom Brady era by swapping out a 42-year-old for a 38-year-old whose resume can’t even compare with his predecessor’s. Boos rain down from both Southern California and the Northeast alike.

It’s perfect and I hate it.

Chance it happens: 0.5/10

Let’s not act like Tom Brady isn’t going to turn around and re-sign with the Patriots, probably through some depressing Facebook ad or something similar.

The most realistic landing spot: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rivers was unwilling to relocate to Los Angeles after his Chargers left San Diego behind. Instead, he bought a $200,000 mobile film room so he could do his homework during the 90-minute drive to and from practice.

This all suggests he’s not going to stray far from the Florida home he moved his family to this offseason. There’s only one Sunshine State franchise with both the need and the available salary cap space to bring Rivers to town. Jameis Winston is a free agent after five up-and-down seasons with the Buccaneers, and Tampa is in the market for a veteran quarterback who can serve as a bridge between their present and the future.

Enter Rivers, who’d give head coach Bruce Arians and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers another opportunity to rehabilitate a tarnished former top prospect. Arians transformed Carson Palmer from washed-up piece of Raiders garbage into a Pro Bowl quarterback in the sunset of his career. He also turned Winston into the greatest boom-or-bust passer in league history thanks to the NFL’s first 30-touchdown, 30-interception season. Whatever Rivers has left in the tank, Arians will get the most of it while dialing up his quarterback’s truest self up to “11.”

There’s more to like in Tampa than just Arians. Rivers would sling passes to possibly the NFL’s No. 1 receiving tandem in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Ronald Jones and Dare Ogunbonwale are both decent pass catchers from the backfield, too. Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard have each shown flashes of potential throughout their careers, and either could level up playing alongside a more consistent QB.

The Buccaneers can’t offer the playoff readiness of the Colts or Bears, but they can surround an aging quarterback with a proven, offensively minded head coach and a receiving corps that can turn Rivers’ risks downfield into big plays. Tampa Bay could replace Winston, who played like the Kirkland brand Philip Rivers, with the real thing — albeit a version that could be past its expiration date.

Chance it happens: 7/10

If Rivers wants to play and restore his value in 2019, the Buccaneers may be his best chance. And he could probably still commute to work!

0 notes

othersportsnews-blog · 7 years ago

Text

NFL's best, worst offensive arsenals, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, from 32-1

New Post has been published on https://othersportsnews.com/nfls-best-worst-offensive-arsenals-running-backs-wide-receivers-tight-ends-from-32-1/

NFL's best, worst offensive arsenals, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, from 32-1

The NFL is a quarterback’s league, but a set of weapons can be the difference between a quarterback taking a leap forward or looking ordinary. Think about Tom Brady breaking out between 2006 and 2007 once the Patriots added Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Remember what Andy Dalton looked like in 2015 with A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu in the lineup, and what happened with all of those guys missing at times last season.

More people play on ESPN than anywhere else. Join or create a league in the No. 1 Fantasy Football game! Sign up for free!

It’s difficult in cases to separate the weapons from the play of a quarterback, but let’s try that here in ranking each team’s weapons from 32 to 1. I’m more confident about the tiers than ranking the teams within each tier; you could really make a case for any of the top three teams in the final tier being No. 1 and I’d agree.

This considers running backs, wide receivers and tight ends without the influence of quarterbacks, offensive linemen or offensive coordinators. It considers only how they’ll perform in 2017 without worrying about future seasons, and it’s not concerned with the cost of those players or what it took to acquire them. This is strictly an on-field analysis. It factors in players who are already injured or suspended. Healthy players were treated according to their typical injury history, so a player like Keenan Allen is more of a concern than someone like Larry Fitzgerald.

Let’s start with the bottom of the league:

Click on the links below to go directly to your team.

ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAC | KC | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | OAK | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WAS

Tier I: The serious problems

If you want a sign of how thoroughly the Jets are rebuilding at receiver, consider that the only pass-catchers they have on the roster who caught an NFL pass before 2016 are Quincy Enunwa and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Relatively, the duo of Matt Forte and Bilal Powell are professional royalty, but Forte posted his worst yards per carry mark since 2009 in his debut season with the Jets (3.9). The longtime Bears starter might only still be on the roster by virtue of the Jets guaranteeing his $4 million base salary last year.

The two building block weapons in San Francisco appeared to be Carlos Hyde and Vance McDonald, but neither player may survive training camp under the new regime of Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch. Import Pierre Garcon provides familiarity with Shanahan’s scheme, but the big question mark is wildly expensive Kyle Juszczyk, whom the Niners apparently intend to employ as if he were some combination of Darren Sproles and a tank.

Corey Coleman had 33 catches and three touchdowns as a rookie last season. Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire

The Browns weren’t exactly stacked at the skill-position spots last season, and they subsequently moved on from their top two receivers (Terrelle Pryor and Gary Barnidge) this offseason. Kenny Britt and first-round pick David Njoku will take their places, respectively, but the key player is 2016 first-rounder Corey Coleman, who should take a step forward after breaking his hand three weeks into his rookie season. Coleman caught just 46.4 percent of his targets after the hand injury, the worst rate in the league for players with 50 second-half targets.

The Rams are a weird stack of skill-position talent. Todd Gurley should be better, but they have a block-first wide receiver (Robert Woods), a hands-first tight end (second-round pick Gerald Everett, a former basketball player) and a weapon who isn’t actually a weapon in Tavon Austin. The former eighth overall pick finished dead last in receiving DVOA and averaged just 4.85 yards per target, last among wideouts by a comfortable margin. The depth chart behind Gurley is also perilously thin.

Tier II: The injury factories

No team has been harder hit by injuries this offseason than Baltimore, with the Ravens already losing Dennis Pitta (hip) and Kenneth Dixon (knee) for the season. Marty Mornhinweg’s offense will rely heavily upon players with recent injury histories, including Danny Woodhead, Benjamin Watson, Maxx Williams, Breshad Perriman and Jeremy Maclin.

The Chiefs released both Jamaal Charles and Jeremy Maclin this offseason, and while they used third- and fourth-round picks on Kareem Hunt and Jehu Chesson, respectively, their wide receiver depth chart is as thin as any team in football. Their lead wideout will be Tyreek Hill, who is one of the fastest players in the league but was basically a screen receiver as a rookie in 2016. Travis Kelce is supremely talented, but can he carry the entire passing game and stay healthy?

Tier III: The rebuilds

General manager Ryan Pace moved on from Alshon Jeffery by attempting to turn a dollar into four quarters; Jeffery’s $14.6 million cap hit was instead reassigned to the combination of Markus Wheaton, Kendall Wright, Victor Cruz and Dion Sims, who will eat up a combined $14.9 million of cap room. Perhaps more important is the development of 2015 first-rounder Kevin White, who has been limited to 19 catches in two seasons by injury. That’s the fewest for a top-10 pick in 35 years. But hey, Jordan Howard and Cameron Meredith!

One of the few places the Colts aren’t currently in transition is wide receiver, where Kamar Aiken could push disappointing 2015 first-rounder Phillip Dorsett for playing time. Donte Moncrief played through injuries in a lost campaign, but T.Y. Hilton led the league in receiving yardage, while Jack Doyle emerged as a reliable safety valve and replacement for Coby Fleener. Frank Gore continues to chug away, but he could give way to fourth-round pick Marlon Mack by the end of the season.

LeSean McCoy has rushed for more than 1,000 yards in a season five times in his eight-year career. Rob Leiter via Getty Images

Shady McCoy continues to impress as he enters his age-29 season, but he has missed time in each of his first two seasons with the Bills, and that’s without considering the high ankle sprain he suffered in Week 17. Charles Clay has failed to deliver in Buffalo while struggling with a persistent knee injury, and the team played Sammy Watkins through a clearly debilitating foot injury before Watkins hit the shelf in 2016. If Watkins isn’t 100 percent, the depth chart behind him is scary, led by players such as Walter Powell, Andre Holmes and second-rounder Zay Jones.

Nobody doubts that the Broncos have a pair of great wideouts in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, but the depth chart behind them at wide receiver is thin, and they’re a mess at running back and tight end. C.J. Anderson fell off dramatically before suffering a season-ending meniscus injury, and Devontae Booker mustered little in his stead. Starter Virgil Green is a block-first tight end, while Denver will hope to get something out of backups Jeff Heuerman, A.J. Derby and Jake Butt.

Tier IV: The missing stars

The Lions have plenty of weapons who have flashed usefulness, but their only reliable threat seems to be Golden Tate. Marvin Jones averaged just 40.1 yards per game after a blazing hot three-game start last season, while Eric Ebron has the league’s highest drop rate (7.9 percent) among receivers with 200 targets or more since he entered the league in 2014. Ameer Abdullah missed 14 games last season and wasn’t effective as a rookie, while Theo Riddick has been an excellent receiver without offering much more than replacement-level running.

Adrian Peterson is gone, and while the Vikings signed the underwhelming Latavius Murray in his place, everyone in Minnesota seems to be hoping Dalvin Cook takes over the job sooner rather than later. The Vikes are deep with useful contributors at running back and wide receiver, with players such as Jerick McKinnon and Jarius Wright buried on the depth chart, but there’s precious little star power until Stefon Diggs breaks out beyond a hot week or two. Adam Thielen was a nice surprise last season, but the offense would take a leap forward if Laquon Treadwell realized his potential.

Tier V: More rebuilds!

If everything works out alongside Odell Beckham Jr., the Giants could be great; Sterling Shepard should be better in his second season, tight end Evan Engram should be an upgrade over the likes of Will Tye and Larry Donnell from years past, and Brandon Marshall should have more left in the tank than Victor Cruz. It’s also possible that Engram struggles as a rookie (as most tight ends do), Shepard is limited in targets, and the 33-year-old Marshall looks more like the guy who caught 46 percent of his passes a year ago than the one who excelled in 2015. Under almost any scenario, running back will be a mess.

Jordan Reed had 17 touchdown catches the past two seasons after having only three in his first two seasons in the NFL. John McDonnell/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Washington has almost entirely shifted its offense over the past two seasons, going from a team built around departed wide receivers Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson to a team targeting slot receiver Jamison Crowder and tight end Jordan Reed. If Jay Gruden can get new addition Terrelle Pryor and 2016 first-rounder Josh Doctson going, this could be an effective unit. It’s hard to trust Reed and Doctson to stay on the field for long stretches of time, though, with Reed already hitting the PUP list because of a foot injury. Kirk Cousins has thrown 42 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions and has posted a 106.4 passer rating with Reed on the field over the past two seasons; those numbers decline to 10 touchdowns, 13 interceptions and a 86.1 passer rating with Reed sidelined. Running back also remains a major work in progress.

Nothing went right for Houston’s offense last season outside of tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz, who was the one receiver who seemed to develop any level of affinity with departed quarterback Brock Osweiler. DeAndre Hopkins went missing for games at a time, although it’s hard to blame him for the woes. First-round pick Will Fuller started the season with consecutive 100-yard games and then never came close the rest of the way. Most disappointingly, Lamar Miller looked like his legs were stuck in mud for most of the season after coming over in free agency from the Dolphins. There’s still plenty of talent here, but everyone needs to look more like their 2015 selves.

Carson Wentz needed wide receivers, so the Eagles went shopping and came away with an interesting buy-low tandem in Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, each of whom should have plenty left in the tank. Suddenly, Wentz is spoiled for options given that he can turn to Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz or Darren Sproles when Jeffery and Smith are covered. LeGarrette Blount is coming off a career year (18 TDs) with the Patriots and should still be a useful back between the tackles, although Sproles will end up being the savior of the team for a stretch in September, as seems to be the case every season.

Tier VI: The haltingly optimistic

You might not have noticed, but Doug Baldwin is a real No. 1 wideout, given that he ranks 12th in receiving yards (tied with Larry Fitzgerald) and seventh in touchdowns (just ahead of Demaryius Thomas) over the past three years. He might also be the only sure thing. The rest of the receiving corps is in recovery, with Jermaine Kearse struggling and Tyler Lockett returning from a broken leg. Jimmy Graham was surprisingly reliable in returning from his torn patella, playing all 16 games while posting his highest yardage total since 2013. The arriving Eddie Lacy should split time with Thomas Rawls, but the best-case scenario for Seattle might involve 2016 third-round pick C.J. Prosise becoming the featured back.

The Titans made Mike Mularkey’s run-first scheme work, with DeMarco Murray having a resurgent season and the likes of Harry Douglas contributing as useful blockers. Much-needed weapons were added at wide receiver with Eric Decker and first-round pick Corey Davis coming to town, while 2016 second-round pick Derrick Henry should grab a larger share of the carries if Murray can’t stay healthy. Tennessee is still dependent upon Delanie Walker staying ageless at tight end, but this is a deep group with plenty of upside.

The Saints gave Coby Fleener $18 million guaranteed last offseason, and he had only 50 catches and three touchdowns in his first season in New Orleans. AP Photo/Bill Feig

The Saints traded away Brandin Cooks but still have plenty at wide receiver, with Michael Thomas looking like a superstar and Ted Ginn arriving to serve as a deep threat alongside Willie Snead. They also added to their running back rotation by taking a pleasantly low-cost shot on Adrian Peterson and a more typical trade up in the draft for Alvin Kamara. It’s also hard to believe Coby Fleener won’t be better in his second season in New Orleans, especially given how effective Drew Brees has been at targeting tight ends in years past.

With six first-rounders — including No. 5 pick Corey Davis — still unsigned as training camps loom, we could see a repeat of Joey Bosa’s holdout from last year. The reasons are similar, too — with a twist.

Who’s on the bubble? Which rookie could surprise? NFL Nation reporters take a crack at a preliminary 53-man roster and starting lineup projection and preview what to expect in training camp for every team.

The Patriots refused to trade Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason — at any price — and Jacoby Brissett showed promise in 2016. That’s why the Patriots are No. 1 on our list of backup QB situations. We’re ranking them all from best to worst.

2 Related

The Jags have their fourth new starting running back in as many years, but fourth overall pick Leonard Fournette should stick. He could close out games for a Jaguars team that has blown seven games in which they led entering the fourth quarter over the past three seasons, a figure topped only by the Chargers (10). While both Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns had disappointing 2016 seasons, the Jags got a surprisingly effective campaign from Marqise Lee, giving them a trio of young wideouts for other teams to worry about. So much still depends on Blake Bortles, but the weapons aren’t the problem in Jacksonville.

The Panthers focused on taking pressure off Cam Newton this offseason, and while I’m skeptical of new left tackle Matt Kalil, I’m more hopeful that top two picks Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel will provide Newton with some badly-needed intermediate targets. Those will come in handy in 2017 and the years to come as Greg Olsen ages. Wide receiver still seems like a problem, as Kelvin Benjamin slipped badly in his first year back from a torn ACL, while Devin Funchess posted the league’s lowest catch rate (41.1 percent).

I’m not sure any of us expected to see the Packers looking quite like this 12 months ago. Davante Adams — the biggest fantasy football disappointment of 2015 — as a touchdown machine? Randall Cobb lost in the shuffle? Ty Montgomery as a featured running back? Martellus Bennett somehow ending up in an even better situation than New England? Aaron Rodgers is the straw that stirs the drink here, of course, but with Jordy Nelson hardly missing a beat in his return last year, there’s plenty of talent along the skill positions, too.

Tier VII: The top 10

The Bucs were an effective offense in 2016, and outside of Mike Evans getting injured, it’s hard to see them being worse in terms of weaponry. Adam Humphries and Cameron Brate were pleasant surprises last season, and now they’ve been supplemented with DeSean Jackson and first-round pick O.J. Howard. Doug Martin was wildly disappointing and will be suspended for the first three games of 2017, but he should be better after averaging 2.9 yards per carry a season ago. Evans, by the way, doesn’t turn 24 until August. What if he gets better?

You can make cases for Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell, but I’m of the volition that David Johnson was the best running back in football last season. There’s useful depth behind DJ after Arizona re-signed Chris Johnson. Bruce Arians has revitalized 33-year-old Larry Fitzgerald‘s career by moving the future Hall of Famer into the slot, where he has racked up back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. John Brown should be back in form after struggling with sickle cell and a cyst on his spine last season, and while Michael Floyd has left town, the Cards should be able to piece together a third receiver rotation with J.J. Nelson and third-round pick Chad Williams. Tight end is a relative weakness, but this is still a talented bunch.

Things have come together swimmingly for the Raiders: They built their offensive line, drafted a quarterback, drafted him a No. 1 receiver, and found a No. 2 receiver for free. Just like you draw it up.

Now, they’re adding a local icon at running back. It’s unclear whether there’s anything left in Marshawn Lynch‘s tank after a dismal 2015 season, but that was behind a brutal offensive line after four years of heavy work. Lynch is playing behind the best offensive line in the league and took a year off from football; he’ll probably be good, and he might be great. Lynch won’t be needed for 300 carries, but the Raiders can spot the useful DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard to keep Lynch around 225 rushing attempts in the hopes of having a fresh Beast Mode in January.

Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are among the best one-two punches in the league, although I’d be a little concerned about Oakland’s other receivers. Seth Roberts was exceedingly inefficient last season, dropping 9.1 percent of his targets, which tied him for the league lead among wideouts with Nelson Agholor. Jared Cook has a well-earned reputation for ill-timed drops, while Lee Smith is a block-first tight end. Given that Cooper and Crabtree have absorbed 276 and 277 targets over their two seasons together, though, those secondary receivers aren’t extremely important unless somebody gets hurt.

One of the few advantages of struggling through a season of injuries is that you get to see what’s lurking at the bottom of your roster. The Chargers lost Danny Woodhead, Keenan Allen and Stevie Johnson before the end of September last season, and while that might have sank some teams, Philip Rivers kept on making plays. Melvin Gordon, so disappointing as a rookie, broke out as a workhorse and averaged 24.3 touches per game before getting hurt in December. Tyrell Williams came out of nowhere to post a 1,000-yard season. Dontrelle Inman outperformed free-agent addition Travis Benjamin. Hunter Henry began to take over for Antonio Gates. There was a lot to like.

The concern in 2017, of course, is more injuries. The Chargers are already worried about first-round pick Mike Williams, who has been sidelined since the first practice of minicamp with a back injury. Allen has missed 23 of the past 24 games and hasn’t played a single 16-game season as a pro. Gordon has dealt with knee injuries in each of his first two years, and there’s little depth at running back. Gates is 37 years old. The Chargers could be a top-three unit if everyone stays healthy, but it’s foolish to count on that happening.

Another set of talents sapped by injury a year ago, the Bengals got to see Tyler Eifert and A.J. Green line up together for only three full games in 2016. They averaged 26 points in those three games and 19 points per contest during the other 13. Giovani Bernard also tore his ACL, and Jeremy Hill suffered a late-season knee injury. By the end of the season, Andy Dalton was throwing the ball to Brandon LaFell and Cody Core.

The Bengals never spend money in free agency, but they’ve drafted reinforcements. After re-signing LaFell, Cincy used its first-round pick on Washington speedster John Ross before taking disgraced Oklahoma back Joe Mixon in the second round. Last year’s second-round pick Tyler Boyd should also be better, leaving the Bengals with four viable starting wideouts, three useful running backs and a star tight end in a contract year. If Ross (who has missed the entire offseason after undergoing shoulder surgery) and Mixon make an immediate impact, the Bengals could be close to unstoppable on offense.

You don’t need to be reminded about Ezekiel Elliott, who was the most productive running back in the league as a rookie. Dez Bryant hasn’t been his usual self over the past two season, with injuries limiting him to 54.4 receiving yards per contest after he averaged 77.2 yards per game over his first four seasons as a starter. He should be healthy after undergoing surgery last year, with the 137-yard, two-touchdown game Dez put up on the Packers in the playoffs a reminder of what the former first-round pick can do.

Things aren’t quite as impressive after Dallas’ big two. Jason Witten is a Hall of Famer, but his receiving totals have dropped in three of the past four seasons, and that trend is unlikely to reverse itself as Witten turns 35. Cole Beasley is a useful slot receiver, but his 76.5 percent catch rate in 2016 was a career high. Terrance Williams remains anonymous; he was thrown the ball on just 13.8 percent of his routes last season, the sixth-lowest rate among wide receivers. There’s a huge drop-off between Zeke and Dez and the rest of the team.

You saw them torching the league last season, right? They didn’t throw quite as many passes to Julio Jones — Matt Ryan threw him 74 fewer passes in 2016 than he did in 2015 — and while part of that was due to injury, the change also came thanks to a more balanced and successful offense. The Falcons ran the ball more because they were winning, but the one-two punch of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman was also more efficient, as Atlanta’s rushing DVOA jumped from 25th to seventh. Both backs return, and it might be easier to keep Freeman for the long term thanks to Le’Veon Bell, who turned down a long-term offer that would have reset the running back market and given Freeman a lofty target.

Atlanta scored 83 points during Jones’ two-game respite from the lineup, although it came against the Rams and 49ers and included a pair of defensive touchdowns. The Falcons would still be in trouble if Jones went down with a serious injury, but they have a useful set of secondary wideouts in Mohamed Sanu, big-play sensation Taylor Gabriel and Justin Hardy. Gabriel won’t be quite as explosive as he was a year ago, but there’s enough of a support staff to pick up the slack if Jones isn’t 100 percent. Austin Hooper looms as a promising tight end, but that’s the weak spot in this otherwise dominant unit.

Tier VIII: The final frontier

It has almost become parody, but there’s a staggering amount of potential among the Dolphins’ collection of skill-position talent. There’s not a more exciting trio of young receivers in the game than Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills, each of whom are 25 or younger. Parker might loom as the most devastating of the three, and if he takes a leap forward in his third season, it’s hard to figure out how anyone is going to cover these guys.

Miami got lucky at running back, where it sensed some weakness and tried to sign C.J. Anderson to a hefty offer sheet in March 2016 before bringing Arian Foster in over the summer. The Broncos matched Anderson’s offer and Foster retired, turning the job over to Jay Ajayi, who announced his arrival with back-to-back 200-yard games against the Steelers and Bills before putting up a third 200-yard game against Buffalo in December. Ajayi was a little more dependent upon big plays than you might like, but there’s still a starting back here with plenty of upside.

If coach Adam Gase can get something out of Julius Thomas, who scored 24 touchdowns in two years for him in Denver, this offense could be unstoppable. They’re not all going to break out unless the Dolphins get to play with two footballs, but there’s so much talent to go around that Miami won’t have to depend on any one player to have a big season.

The Steelers can make a case that they have the best running back and the best wide receiver in the league. It’s tough to count on Le’Veon Bell to play 16 games, but Bell stayed healthy through his 12-game season in 2016 and averaged 157 yards from scrimmage per game. The only players in league history to top that (minimum 10 games) are Priest Holmes in 2002 and O.J. Simpson in 1975, and neither of those guys had a receiver as target-intensive as Antonio Brown with whom to split touches.

Brown also sat out Week 17 and had his worst season since his breakout 2013 campaign, but does anybody really think the five-time Pro Bowler is significantly worse than he was over the previous three seasons? The only thing that might keep his numbers down is the return of Martavis Bryant, whose prorated 2015 performance (playoffs included) translates to 79 catches for 1,166 yards and nine touchdowns.

One concern with the Steelers is injury, a real concern for Bell specifically. DeAngelo Williams is gone, and he wasn’t very effective last season; after a 143-yard game against Washington in the opener, Williams subsequently ran the ball 72 times and gained just 200 yards, averaging 3.5 yards per rush. Rookie third-rounder James Conner has an inspiring story and should be a good contrast back next to Bell, but he’s not the receiver Bell is. I suspect Bell is about to have a monster contract season, but his history raises an alarm. That, and the absence of a useful tight end opens up the door for the …

Brandin Cooks is a painfully perfect addition for the Patriots because of his agility and ability to get in and out of breaks. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is going to have a field day isolating Cooks, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski (remember him?) for easy completions and yards after their receptions. New England will be a little worse at tight end as it replaces Martellus Bennett with Dwayne Allen, but the Patriots still have the best No. 1 tight end and the best No. 2 tight end in the league. About the only thing they lack at receiver is a second deep threat to stretch teams behind Chris Hogan, but Malcolm Mitchell could fill that role in a pinch.

The Pats are also better at running back and deeper than they’ve ever been, with a pair of options for both their power back (hyper-efficient newcomers Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead) and receiving back (holdovers James White and Dion Lewis) spots. It’s remarkable that the Pats are 17-0 with Lewis in the lineup and he still might not make the roster anyway. This isn’t going to be an offense that terrifies teams with brute downfield force like Randy Moss and the 2007 New England team, but it’s going to convert second-and-short and third-and-short over and over again until opposing defenses collapse.

Source link

0 notes

purspektivz · 7 years ago

Text

Didn’t Go To Church This Sunday, Won’t Be There Next Week....And I Am Better For It

I went to church the other week after taking a hiatus. I hadn’t been to church in about six months and this was intentional. I needed a break from all the noise church had become. I just needed to find the genuine root of my spiritual beliefs. My break away from the routine of weekly church services followed the death of the Bishop Eddie Long, a religious figure that some had come to love and others loved to hate. A few years ago, he was involved in a scandal focused on his encounters with young boys. He pastored a megachurch, New Birth, in Georgia for 20 years prior to his death. Even after the scandal and the revelation to the public, many still decided to remain loyal to him. At the time of his death, the subject of the sex scandal and his manipulation of young boys for pleasure was once again on the forefront of minds. Many felt his long battle with illness and slowly emaciating figure was karma coming to pay him a visit for the things he had done. Others jumped to the defense of his image and legacy. Seeing the division and back and forth had put me over the edge of an already steep cliff. I had to step away.

I was born into a family with deep roots in the Black church routine. At the time of my birth, my father was a minister at a Church of God in Christ (COGIC) church, under the leadership of a man, Pastor Shepard Little, who would go on to be the head of the COGIC in the mid 90′s. My mother had relatives with positions within the COGIC organization and she was raised COGIC herself. Bishop Little presided over the wedding of my parents in 1980. When I was a young girl, my father would become a pastor himself. He started having services in the basement of out home on the south side of Chicago and eventually moved to a small storefront in the Austin neighborhood. He moved from their to a bigger facility in Logan Square.

Shortly after my father began pastoring, he broke away from and even became deeply critical of the COGIC organization. He spoke often of the politics that he saw and the scandals that he witnessed. As a young girl, i witnessed scandals myself from men having secret homosexual relationships, which were forbidden at the time, to the scandal of my father’s extramarital affair which would be the reason behind him ending his career as a pastoral leader. During his time as a Pastor, my father was deeply Pentecostal. There was little room for error and rules among his congregation and with his family were very strict. Women were not allowed to wear pants or makeup, men were not allowed to wear shorts or grow their hair, women were not allowed to shave their hands or wear jewelry, skirts had to be at or below the knee for purposes of modesty, and women had to wear head coverings in places of worship. As children, our ability to have friends was very restrictive and we were barely allowed to go around our family. Everyone, except for us, were sinners and bound to hell. We should stay away lest we ride with them on their coattails on the highway to the underworld. We were not allowed to attend birthday parties of non-relatives. We were not allowed to listen to secular music and movies were out of the question.

I was secluded from the rest of the world and that was intentional. My father was saving us from a destiny that included being damned to a lake of fire. When my father had his affair, it was a shock for everyone. He took up with a PYT that served as a church secretary. She was a whopping 22 years old. Only 8 years my senior. She wore trendy clothes and a short head of Jeri curls. She was pretty and had nice dark skin. Our lives as church folk ended, the doors of the church were shut forever, and my parents legally separated so that my father may spend his days (and midlife crisis) on the north side of Chicago with his lover. My mother packed us all into an extra bedroom at my grandmother’s house and we were once again thrown into the world of COGIC. YPWW, Sunday School and rides on church vans became a part of our routines. The restrictions were much less stringent than my father’s and we got picked on less at school.

Then my parents reunited. My father repented to his family and returned to the pulpit. He never pastored a church again but was called on to preach in the pulpits of many. He had gained a following so there were many who were pleased with his return from disgrace. He began to impose upon us the stringent rules as they had been before. Only my mother had become less compliant. We had been introduced to secular music and loved it. My sister and I wore pants and all of us had fell in love with the hip hop scene. We would make our way back to our grandmother’s house where we could rock our heads to the likes of Da Brat, Tupac Shakur, Notorious BIG, Craig Mack and LL Cool J - just to name a few. My father tried hard but the influence ran deep. Eventually, my parents ended up divorced. Their reunion only lasted 4 years. They ended their 20 year marriage in anything but an amicable way.

I was FREE. I was a young mom, but still was able to start college. I stayed away from church and no one made me go. Then I went to this church with my aunt, Progressive. Pastor Donald Alford seemed very contemporary and the way he ran his church services were different than anything I had ever seen. Women walked around in tight trendy clothes, they had pretty jewelry, their hair was laid, the choir made you ROCK and every service seemed like a production. I was into it. So I joined and remained a member throughout college and beyond. I then began to become disillusioned with the show as I had known church to be a place of solace and comfort, but there were just too many times were I went there looking for guidance and fulfillment and stumbled on yet another appreciation, concert or other type of show. I tried many other churches and got bored with them for one reason or another. Well....boredom is not so much the word - maybe got tired of the bullshit. That’s more like it.

I saw Pastors in the news for having affairs and other scandals. At least with my father, he chose to step down. There was no dual living for him. He was too afraid of the God he believed in to play around. But these new leaders I saw were just BOLD. There was Charles Jenkins, whose completely naked body (with a toothbrush hanging out his mouth and a toothpick swinging in between his legs) ended up all over the internet because, some way, it got off of his mistress’ phone and into the wrong hands. Then there was Eddie Long, of course, and his love of minions. There were the COGIC convocations where there were orgies, preachers who loved prostitutes in their hotel rooms, and men who hid their homosexual tendencies while condemning the LGBT community.

Then there was the spiritual, mental and financial molestation of congregations. Preachers asking for money for million dollar jet planes, while congregants were struggling to place money on bus cards to get to jobs and drop their children off at school. Pastor’s wives wearing $1,000 pumps while children ran around in children’s church with holes in their sneakers. Pastors flashed their luxury and told people that if they gave, God would multiply and they would be on top just like them. Just don’t ask them for shit.

I can go on and on about the things I have witnessed and been subjected to as a member of a congregation. So I began to question everything. Leaders were held to a standard where they were not to be questioned yet ‘humbled’ themselves as mere men when they were caught up in their shit. I needed to know WHY I believed what I believed. I had been born into it and told it was the only way. When I had tried to break away to search myself, I became uncomfortable and returned. I wasn’t loyal, just afraid of what was not familiar. I became envious of those who had been born as ‘outsiders’ and made a conscious decision to practice whatever they believed. They could own their choice and feel more true to themselves. But this time I decided to sit through the discomfort.

While in undergrad, I studied about other religions and saw similarities among all of them across cultures. I became curious but had spent all my life being cautioned against going diving into other religions. As of late, I have become interested in African cultures and how the African diaspora has affected religious practices all over the world. I especially gained an interested in Orisha worship. I went for a tarot card reading and learned things about myself and how some past decisions I made had an effect on my present day. I began to really get into the practice of yoga and even went through yoga teacher certification. I went for a Reiki healing session and began studying metaphysics and carrying crystals for energy protection. I burned sage and Paulo Santo in my home and recently went through an Obatala candle. I visited a local art gallery and learned more about African cultural influence on religion. I remember visiting a voodoo temple in Haiti but was strongly discouraged from engaging too much since I was there with a business group that was an extension of the place of worship I attended at the time. But I could not hold back my fascination. I began my own journey to spirituality.

And it was freedom.

I am exploring who I am and every decision I make has been on my own. The restrictions that I felt began to loosen up around my mind and spirit. I found solace in activities that acknowledged and called upon ancestors for guidance and assistance. I connected myself around people whose energy mimicked the very shine I wanted to feel. I engaged myself in exhibits and artwork. I went to a Buddhist meditation exhibit in Birmingham while I was there working on an assignment. I am content right here. Right now.

So when I decided to give church a chance again and the preacher got up in the pulpit and spit harsh words and misogyny, I decided that I was going to stay on my break. It ain’t time yet. Will it ever be? Who knows. But I know that it feels good to draw the map to your own path.

#religion #blackwomen #selfempowerment #doyoubeyouloveyou

0 notes

cover32-yahoopartner-blog · 7 years ago

Text

Long Shot: Alexander Figures to Contend for Raiders RT Job

Offensive Tackle Vadal Alexander, a 7th round pick in 2016, could turn into one of the biggest steals of the draft for the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders offensive line has been one of the best in the NFL the past two seasons. It improved greatly last year with the addition of Guard Kelechi Osemele, a mauler that absolutely pushed the Raiders line into a tier with the big boys of the Dallas Cowboys.

AROUND COVER32

Around the NFL: Tom Brady tops all NFL players on ESPN’s World Fame 100 List

What’s Trending: Veteran NFL inside reporter, John Clayton, let go by ESPN

2017 Free Agency: After signing free agent RB, Matt Asiata, Lions’ backfield is set for 2017

Player Spotlight: Despite Super Bowl LI heroics, Patriots’ RB, James White, remains humble

cover32 Podcasts: Discussing 49ers’ third round rookie CB, Ahkello Witherspoon

The weak link on that line is obvious though. The Right Tackle position for the Raiders has been somewhat of a revolving door for the past few seasons. Menelik Watson could not stay healthy enough to win the job. Austin Howard came over from the New York Jets in 2014 and has been a decent option, but lately he has struggled staying healthy as well and might not be on the team much longer. This year RT projects to be one of the only flaws on an otherwise top 5 offense. So how do the Raiders solve this problem?

Cue Vadal Alexander. He has extensive playing experience in college at a top SEC school in LSU; he started 25 games at LG and 21 at RT. Alexander was also voted 1st Team All SEC in 2015. So how did he fall to the 7th round? Initially, many regarded him as a 2nd-3rd round pick, but he tested poorly at the combine and that seriously damaged his draft stock. The Raiders saw tremendous value when he was still on the board in the 7th round and snatched him up. In an article by Paul Gutierrez on ESPN.com, McKenzie comments on Alexander being there in the 7th, “Yeah, because big guys, they usually get taken,” McKenzie said. “We felt really good about that and we like big people.”

What He has Going for Him

The Raiders love big offensive linemen. According to sbnation.com they were the biggest offensive line on average in 2016 at 6’4” and 327.2 pounds. Alexander certainly fits that bill as he is listed at 6’5” and 326 lbs on the team website, Raiders.com. The big school experience in college should certainly help, plus he has versatility to play guard, tackle and swing tackle/tight end-all of which he did for the Raiders in 2016. He started 5 games for the Raiders in 2016, with mixed results, but that is no doubt good for his learning and development. Like the old adage, the game should slow down after the first year. He looked solid in games against Tennessee and Baltimore early in the year at right tackle.

In his first NFL start against Baltimore, he played the entire game at Right Tackle. He did struggle with three holding penalties, but he held up very well against the likes of former Pro Bowl players in Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs. He gave up zero sacks, and on the game winning drive the Ravens lined up both Dumervil and Suggs over him on separate occasions and he committed no penalties and kept Carr clean to help win the game.

The penalties he did have are easily fixable with better technique. In addition, Mike Tice will drill them out of him. Surprisingly he looked better in pass blocking than run blocking; that is encouraging because rookie offensive linemen usually struggle mightily in pass blocking.

One big thing he has going for him is the level of competition. The battle for Right tackle will most likely be between Alexander, former UDFA Denver Kirkland, and veteran OT Marshall Newhouse. Vic Tafur of the San Francisco Chronicle tweeted recently that Newhouse has the “leg up at RT.” That could all change when camp starts. Newhouse has experience on Alexander but there’s a reason he’s on his 4th NFL team. Going up against the likes of Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin every day can only help to prepare him. The second year tackle will face the gauntlet of AFC West pass rushers he’ll see next season.

What He has to Work On

He has to clean up the penalties; pre-snap penalties especially are a big no-no with Head Coach Jack Del Rio. His technique can improve in both run and pass blocking. Yet, he definitely needs to improve his short area quickness. His speed and lack of quickness is a big reason why he fell in the draft. Tice can help him in those regards; it also helps to have veteran offensive linemen like Donald Penn and Osemele to help the youngster out.

With all that said, it’s obvious that Alexander has a lot of work to do to get there. Unless something drastic happens in camp, don’t be surprised when you see Alexander on the right side against the Titans.

The post Long Shot: Alexander Figures to Contend for Raiders RT Job appeared first on Cover32.

#_uuid:8a712606-f23e-356c-bbfc-80dc87e06afb #_lmsid:a0Vd000000DIJnLEAX #_author:Kory Kuhl #_revsp:cover32_362

0 notes

junker-town · 5 years ago

Text

15 teams that can get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament

Baylor and Kansas are two of the teams fighting for an NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed. But they’re far from alone in the race. | Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The 2019-20 season has been wild so far. And that means there are some unexpected names in the crowded race for the top four spots in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Did you realize that Selection Sunday is now less than two months away?

Seriously, I didn’t notice it myself until about 9 p.m. on Wednesday — when it struck me that it really was January 15th and that the second half of the season was indeed well underway. At this time last year, I examined the cases of the 14 teams most likely to end up on the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 seed line eight weeks in the future. Indeed, four of those squads — Gonzaga and a trio of ACC squads in Duke, North Carolina and Virginia — found themselves atop the bracket’s four regions on March 17th. Similarly, four of the 11 squads featured in 2018’s version of this exercise, namely Kansas, Villanova, Virginia and Xavier, anchored regions in that season’s tournament.

So, at this point of the season, it’s a rather simple exercise to whittle the top seed race from 353 teams to a dozen or so. However, the, um, uniqueness of the 2019-20 season so far means our group of contenders is a little larger — and more flawed — than usual.

Teams are grouped by conference, starting with the Big 12.

Note: Records, NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings and strength of schedule (SOS) data reflect games against Division I opposition only played through Thursday, January 16th. Data from WarrenNolan.com.

Baylor Bears (14-1, 4-0 Big 12)

NET ranking: 1 SOS rankings: 67 (overall)/162 (non-conference) Quad 1 and 2 records: 5-1 vs. Quad 1/2-0 vs. Quad 2 Best wins: No. 2 Kansas (away), No. 7 Butler (home), No. 15 Arizona (home), No. 20 Villanova (neutral) Loss: No. 45 Washington (neutral)

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 8 (2 home, 6 away) Potential Quad 2 games remaining: 5 (2 home, 3 away) Most important remaining games: at Florida (January 25th), West Virginia (February 15th), Kansas (February 22nd), at West Virginia (March 7th)

Baylor first served notice that it might be a national contender on November 24th, when the Bears took down Villanova in the Myrtle Beach Invitational title game. Since then, Scott Drew’s club has put together one of the most impressive collections of victories in the country, capped by Saturday’s road win at Kansas. While 2020’s version of the Big 12 isn’t quite as fertile from a Quad 1 victory perspective as 2019’s, particularly when considering home games, Baylor has a great chance to improve upon its top-tier victory total the rest of the way. After all, it gets both Kansas and West Virginia in Waco and has already won at both KU and Texas Tech. That means the Bears aren’t likely to be intimidated in any remaining road environment, save perhaps Gainesville, where they lost in the 2018 Big 12/SEC Challenge, and Morgantown, site of their regular-season finale.

Kansas Jayhawks (12-3, 3-1 Big 12)

NET ranking: 2 SOS rankings: 1 (overall)/1 (non-conference) Quad 1 and 2 records: 7-3 vs. Quad 1/1-0 vs. Quad 2 Best wins: No. 6 Dayton (neutral), No. 8 West Virginia (home), No. 9 Stanford (away), No. 20 Colorado (home) Losses: No. 1 Baylor (home), No. 5 Duke (neutral), No. 20 Villanova (away)

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 4 (0 home, 4 away) Potential Quad 2 games remaining: 8 (6 home, 2 away) Most important remaining games: Tennessee (January 25th), at West Virginia (February 12th), at Baylor (February 22nd)

The strength of the Big 12 and a typically stout non-conference schedule keep Kansas a in the chase even after Saturday’s loss to Baylor. One factor that works against the Jayhawks is a backloaded Big 12 schedule. They’ve yet to meet Texas Tech and must play both Baylor and West Virginia on the road after splitting their home games against the pair. Also factor working against Bill Self’s squad: an uninspiring matchup with Tennessee for the Big 12/SEC Challenge. If the event used a Bracketbusters-style flexible scheduling model, we probably wouldn’t have gotten an Auburn-Kansas rematch, as the Tigers are also slated to play at home, but an LSU-KU contest would have been a possibility.

West Virginia Mountaineers (14-2, 3-1 Big 12)

NET ranking: 8 SOS rankings: 2 (overall)/3 (non-conference) Quad 1 and 2 records: 3-2 vs. Quad 1/6-0 vs. Quad 2 Best wins: No. 17 Wichita State (neutral), No. 18 Ohio State (neutral), No. 32 Texas Tech (home) Losses: No. 2 Kansas (away), No. 74 St. John’s (away)

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 7 (2 home, 5 away) Potential Quad 2 games remaining: 6 (4 home, 2 away) Most important remaining games: Missouri (January 25th), Kansas (February 12th), at Baylor (February 15th), Baylor (March 7th)

West Virginia has recovered nicely from last season’s 15-21 campaign that ended in the College Basketball Invitational (after a run to the Big 12 Tournament semifinals). Bob Huggins’ club has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2019-20 season and non-conference wins over Wichita State (in Cancun) and Ohio State (right when it looked like the Buckeye were set to ascend to the top spot in the polls) established them as national contenders. But with the Buckeyes falling back down to earth and a questionable loss to St. John’s in the Big East/Big 12 Battle, the Mountaineers really need a true top-tier win or three to establish themselves as a true No. 1 seed threat. The Big 12 schedule provides that with a visit from Kansas and pair of games with Baylor. But an SEC Challenge game against a Kentucky or LSU would have been preferable to a contest with Mizzou.

Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

Duke is one of three ACC teams with a chance at a No. 1 seed. The Blue Devils will meet another, Louisville, on Saturday.

Duke Blue Devils (15-2, 5-1 ACC)

NET ranking: 5 SOS rankings: 11 (overall)/8 (non-conference) Quad 1 and 2 records: 4-1 vs. Quad 1/2-0 vs. Quad 2 Best wins: No. 2 Kansas (neutral), No. 10 Michigan State (away), No. 34 Virginia Tech (away) Losses: No. 73 Clemson (away), No. 93 Stephen F. Austin (home)

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 4 (2 home, 2 away) Potential Quad 2 games remaining: 5 (2 home, 3 away) Most important remaining games: Louisville (Saturday), Florida State (February 10th), Virginia Tech (February 22nd), at Virginia (February 29th)

Duke is the first of three ACC contenders — and the gap between the trio and the rest of the 12 teams in the conference could really damage all of their chances at the top line. It’s a good thing that the Blue Devils own two of the best non-conference wins possessed by the lead pack, as they won’t have many chances to add to their Quad 1 win total the rest of the way. That’s thanks to the league’s collective struggles and an unbalanced schedule. At this point last season, Mike Krzyzewski’s team had more than twice as many Quad 1 win opportunities available, nine, than the four currently on the schedule. Plus, as Tuesday’s setback at Clemson illustrates, Duke will always be in danger of picking up questionable losses — and they already have two. Keep adding to that total, and the chances of consecutive No. 1 seeds will drop.

Florida State Seminoles (15-2, 5-1 ACC)

NET ranking: 14 SOS rankings: 29 (overall)/45 (non-conference) Quad 1 and 2 records: 3-1 vs. Quad 1/4-1 vs. Quad 2 Best wins: No. 13 Louisville (away), No. 31 Purdue (neutral) Losses: No. 47 Indiana (away), No. 80 Pittsburgh (away)

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 6 (1 home, 5 away) Potential Quad 2 games remaining: 2 (0 home, 2 away) Most important remaining games: at Virginia (January 28th), at Virginia Tech (February 1st), at Duke (February 10th), Louisville (February 24th)

Florida State was expected to be decent this season, but an Opening Night loss to Pitt led many to believe the Seminoles would take a step back following two straight trips to the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend. But Leonard Hamilton’s squad routed Florida in its next game and hasn’t looked back, other than in an 80-64 loss at Indiana in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Victories at contender Louisville and over struggling Virginia in the past two weeks have cemented FSU’s status in the lead pack. However, the lack of a true marquee non-conference win means the ‘Noles will likely need to win at Duke and complete a season sweep of Louisville to enter the ACC Tournament with a shot at securing a shocking No. 1 seed.

Louisville Cardinals (14-3, 5-1 ACC)

NET ranking: 13 SOS rankings: 10 (overall)/72 (non-conference) Quad 1 and 2 records: 1-3 vs. Quad 1/4-0 vs. Quad 2 Best win: No. 28 Michigan (home) Losses: No. 14 Florida State (home), No. 32 Texas Tech (neutral), No. 38 Kentucky (away)

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 5 (0 home, 5 away) Potential Quad 2 games remaining: 4 (3 home, 1 away) Most important remaining games: at Duke (Saturday), at Florida State (February 24th), Virginia Tech (March 1st), at Virginia (March 7th)

Louisville is the final potential ACC contender and the one with the longest odds, thanks to a relative lack of quality non-conference wins — the Cardinals’ second best came against MAC-leading Akron. That means they may rue a Jimmy V Classic loss to Texas Tech and overtime setback at Kentucky as major missed opportunities on Selection Sunday. Making matters worse for Chris Mack’s club, while they have five Quad 1 win opportunities left, none of those are set for the KFC Yum Center.

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Cassius Winston and Michigan State still have No. 1 seed hopes despite a blowout loss at Purdue on Sunday.

Michigan State Spartans (13-4, 5-1 Big Ten)

NET ranking: 10 SOS rankings: 27 (overall)/31 (non-conference) Quad 1 and 2 records: 3-4 vs. Quad 1/3-0 vs. Quad 2 Best wins: No. 12 Seton Hall (away), No. 22 Rutgers (home), No. 28 Michigan (home) Losses: No. 5 Duke (home), No. 31 Purdue (away), No. 34 Virginia Tech (neutral), No. 38 Kentucky (neutral)

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 11 (4 home, 7 away) Potential Quad 2 games remaining: 0 Most important remaining games: Wisconsin (Friday), at Wisconsin (February 1st), at Michigan (February 8th), Maryland (February 15th), at Maryland (February 29th), Ohio State (March 8th)

The Big Ten has the opposite problem of the ACC: a ton of depth (thanks to the presence of 12 teams in the Top 50 of both the NET and KenPom rankings) ,with a dearth of contenders for the top line. It hasn’t always been like this in the 2019-20 season. Back on December 2nd, Michigan State, Maryland, Michigan and Ohio State all resembled serious challengers for both the Big Ten title and No. 1 seeds. But the final month of 2019 wasn’t kind to three of those teams, leaving the Spartans at the top of the heap. However, an inexplicable blowout defeat at Purdue last Sunday knocked Tom Izzo’s team down the seed list a bit. The good news for Michigan State is that conference play will give them plenty of opportunities to rebound. The bad news is the conference’s depth could result in the Spartans picking up too many losses to be seriously considered for a top seed.

Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

With Seton Hall winning at Butler on Wednesday night, both teams have a chance at earning a spot on the No. 1 seed line.

Butler Bulldogs (15-2, 3-1 Big East)

NET ranking: 7 SOS rankings: 60 (overall)/118 (non-conference) Quad 1 and 2 records: 4-2 vs. Quad 1/5-0 vs. Quad 2 Best wins: No. 9 Stanford (neutral), No. 30 Creighton (home), No. 31 Purdue (neutral) Losses: No. 1 Baylor (road), No. 12 Seton Hall (home)

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 8 (1 home, 7 away) Potential Quad 2 games remaining: 5 (5 home, 0 away) Most important remaining games: at Villanova (January 21st), Villanova (February 5th), at Seton Hall (February 19th), at Creighton (February 23rd)

Wednesday night’s game at Hinkle Fieldhouse might have just changed both the trajectory of the Big East and No. 1 seed races, as Butler entered its showdown with Seton Hall in the driver’s seat and left it having ceded control to the Pirates. Still, all is not lost for the Bulldogs, thanks to the copious Quad 1 win opportunities this season’s conference slate provides, though they’ll need to do a ton of work on the road to take advantage of them. But not everything is guaranteed in the quality win department, as I’m not sure Stanford will remain as highly-ranked as it is now. If that changes, the loss to the Pirates and a 53-52 defeat at Baylor could leave LaVall Jordan’s team in the lurch in two months’ time.

Seton Hall Pirates (13-4, 5-0 Big East)

NET ranking: 12 SOS rankings: 25 (overall)/103 (non-conference) Quad 1 and 2 records: 5-4 vs. Quad 1/3-0 vs. Quad 2 Best wins: No. 7 Butler (away), No. 16 Maryland (home), No. 35 Marquette (home) Losses: No. 10 Michigan State (home), No. 21 Oregon (neutral), No. 22 Rutgers (away), No. 69 Iowa State (away)

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 8 (3 home, 5 away) Potential Quad 2 games remaining: 4 (3 home, 1 away) Most important remaining games: at Villanova (February 8th), Creighton (February 12th), Butler (February 19th), Villanova (March 4th), at Creighton (March 7th)

Seton Hall served notice of their intentions on Wednesday, long after many fans had assumed the Pirates were not a national contender thanks to four early losses, with consecutive defeats at Iowa State and Rutgers the most damaging (particularly since the Hall had defeated the Cyclones in the Bahamas just 10 days earlier). But Myles Powell missed most of that game in Piscataway (along with a pair of subsequent wins) and Sandro Mamukelashvili hasn’t played since breaking his right wrist early in Ames. If Kevin Willard’s Pirates can keep it up, and they get back to full health, the Selection Committee will evaluate them as a whole unit. And that means the door is open for the Hall to earn a surprising No. 1 seed.

Stanford Cardinal (15-2, 4-0 Pac-12)

NET ranking: 9 SOS rankings: 129 (overall)/172 (non-conference) Quad 1 and 2 records: 0-2 vs. Quad 1/2-0 vs. Quad 2 Best wins: No. 45 Washington (home), No. 58 Oklahoma (neutral) Losses: No. 2 Kansas (home), No. 7 Butler (neutral)

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 9 (3 home, 6 away) Potential Quad 2 games remaining: 4 (3 home, 1 away) Most important remaining games: Oregon (February 1st), at Colorado (February 8th), Arizona (February 15th), Colorado (March 1st), at Oregon State (March 5th), at Oregon (March 7th)

The original draft of this article featured two Pac-12 teams, but Oregon sleepwalked its way to a loss at Washington State on Thursday night — their fourth of the season overall and second against a sub-100 team. So, now only Stanford represents the conference on this list. And the Cardinal’s hopes are more fanciful than anything, thanks to a lack of Quad 1 non-conference wins. Sure, Jerod Haase’s team could pick up a few more in conference play, but Stanford would likely need to finish with zero-to-two Pac-12 losses to be considered a legitimate threat. And with the conference much improved when compared to the last two seasons, that’s highly unlikely.

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn’s defeat at Alabama damaged the Tigers’ — and SEC’s — hopes of securing a No. 1 seed.

Auburn Tigers (15-1, 3-1 SEC)

NET ranking: 11 SOS rankings: 22 (overall)/13 (non-conference) Quad 1 and 2 records: 1-1 vs. Quad 1/4-0 vs. Quad 2 Best wins: No. 43 NC State (home), No. 51 Saint Louis (neutral) Loss: No. 46 Alabama (away)

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 7 (1 home, 6 away) Potential Quad 2 games remaining: 5 (4 home, 1 away) Most important remaining games: at Florida (Saturday), Iowa State (January 25th), Kentucky (February 1st), at Arkansas (February 4th), LSU (February 8th), at Kentucky (February 29th)

On Wednesday night, Auburn’s dreams of a perfect season ended in Tuscaloosa. However, even if the Tigers had remained undefeated, they still would have had to put in serious work in SEC play to earn real consideration for a No. 1 seed. The issue for Bruce Pearl’s squad? A schedule that’s been average to this point. While Auburn has played just four games against teams from outside of the NET Top 150, it has yet to encounter a team ranked in the metric’s Top 40. That will change as conference play unfolds, so the Tigers still have their fate in their own hands.

LSU Tigers (12-4, 4-0 SEC)

NET ranking: 27 SOS rankings: 9 (overall)/20 (non-conference) Quad 1 and 2 records: 3-1 vs. Quad 1/3-3 vs. Quad 2 Best wins: No. 23 Arkansas (home), No. 24 Liberty (home) Losses: No. 50 VCU (away), No. 52 USC (neutral), No. 56 ETSU (home), No. 81 Utah State (neutral)

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 5 (0 home, 5 away) Potential Quad 2 games remaining: 8 (5 home, 3 away) Most important remaining games: Florida (January 21st), at Texas (January 25th), at Auburn (February 8th), Kentucky (February 18th), at Florida (February 26th), at Arkansas (March 4th)

I wasn’t sure about including a second SEC team in this article, until I encountered this bit of information on Thursday morning.

There are only four teams in the top seven conferences (Power-5, plus Big East and AAC) that remain undefeated in conference play: Baylor Seton Hall LSU Stanford

— Mark Cooper (@mark_cooperjr) January 16, 2020

So, LSU appears here alongside the other three power-league unbeatens, despite four losses and a NET ranking that’s closer to 30 than 20. Will Wade’s Tigers do have one thing working for them, particularly when compared to their conference rivals from the Plains: a pair of Top 25 wins. However, the Bayou Bengals will have to avoid slip-ups in SEC play to become a more serious contender. And that won’t be easy considering the quality win opportunities left — particularly away from Baton Rouge.

Like the Big 12 contenders above, both sets of SEC Tigers are probably wishing they had stronger opposition waiting for them on January 25th.

James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

What would a rundown of No. 1 seed contenders be without Gonzaga (particularly after the Bulldogs recorded a 50-point win on Thursday)?

Gonzaga Bulldogs (19-1, 5-0 WCC)

NET ranking: 4 SOS rankings: 264 (overall)/289 (non-conference) Quad 1 and 2 records: 3-1 vs. Quad 1/1-0 vs. Quad 2 Best wins: No. 15 Arizona (away), No. 21 Oregon (neutral) Loss: No. 28 Michigan (neutral)

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 2 (0 home, 2 away) Potential Quad 2 games remaining: 4 (2 home, 2 away) Most important remaining games: BYU (Saturday), at Santa Clara (January 30th), at Saint Mary’s (February 8th), at BYU (February 22nd), Saint Mary’s (February 29th)

Gonzaga picked an unlucky season to host North Carolina. Normally, a home game against Roy Williams’ club would be a Top 30 one, meaning it would fall under Quad 1 for the entire season. But the Tar Heels are currently ranked 120th, and with the quadrants more heavily weighted toward road contests, the Zags’ December 18th win falls under Quad 3. (If you’re wondering why I didn’t list any UNC game as an “important” one for the three ACC teams on this list, that’s why.) But considering the Bulldogs have a pair of Quad 1 wins in hand and the possibility of picking up anywhere between two and four more depending on how they, BYU and Saint Mary’s navigate the best West Coast Conference in many years, Mark Few’s team is in position to follow a formula that’s earned it No. 1 seeds in two of the past three NCAA Tournaments. However, with Gonzaga’s non-conference schedule ranking so lowly, the margin for error in the Bulldogs’ remaining games might be a little tighter than in 2017 and 2019.

San Diego State Aztecs (17-0, 7-0 Mountain West)

NET ranking: 3 SOS rankings: 191 (overall)/132 (non-conference) Quad 1 and 2 records: 3-0 vs. Quad 1/3-0 vs. Quad 2 Best wins: No. 29 Iowa (neutral), No. 30 Creighton (neutral), No. 33 BYU (away)

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 0 Potential Quad 2 games remaining: 3 (0 home, 3 away) Most important remaining games: at New Mexico (January 29th), Utah State (February 1st), at Boise State (February 16th), Colorado State (February 25th), at Nevada (February 29th)

Gonzaga has some competition in the “best non-power-league team on the West Coast” category this season — the nation’s lone remaining unbeaten. To earn a No. 1 seed, San Diego State will more than likely need to keep winning all the way through the Mountain West Tournament. That’s because the Aztecs did most of their heavy lifting in non-conference play — as their win at BYU and the two power victories recorded at the Las Vegas Invitational will be far better than anything they’ll record in conference play. While Gonzaga is navigating the strongest WCC in years, just one Top 100 team currently appears on the remaining schedule for Brian Dutcher’s squad (though New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado State are all close). That gives the Bulldogs a slight advantage in the race to claim the West Region’s No. 1 seed.

Dayton Flyers (15-2, 4-0 Atlantic 10)

NET ranking: 6 SOS rankings: 48 (overall)/15 (non-conference) Quad 1 and 2 records: 2-2 vs. Quad 1/2-0 vs. Quad 2 Best wins: No. 34 Virginia Tech (neutral), No. 42 Saint Mary’s (neutral) Losses: No. 2 Kansas (neutral), No. 19 Colorado (neutral)

Potential Quad 1 games remaining: 5 (0 home, 5 away) Potential Quad 2 games remaining: 4 (3 home, 1 away) Most important remaining games: at Saint Louis (January 17th), at Richmond (January 25th), at Duquesne (January 29th), Saint Louis (February 8th), at VCU (February 18th), at Rhode Island (March 4th)

Obi Toppin and Dayton are in danger of being best remembered for a pair of losses — the OT classic against Kansas in the Maui final and the buzzer-beating heartbreak suffered against Colorado in Chicago. And with no Top 30 wins on the Flyers’ profile and no prospect of picking one up in an improved, but still not great Atlantic 10 (with five teams ranked between 50th and 62nd in the NET), they really needed to reverse one of those defeats to have a serious chance at a No. 1 seed. But if Anthony Grant’s squad can run the table in the Atlantic 10, it will have hope.

My next full bracket projection will arrive on Tuesday.

0 notes

junker-town · 5 years ago

Text

7 best bets for NFL-CFB win total comparisons

We’ve got options for Patriots-Alabama, Browns-Ohio State, Raiders-UNLV, and more!

July is a quiet month for football, and that applies to oddsmakers as well as regular fans. The folks at Las Vegas oddsmaker CG Technology has come up with a fun opportunity for both NFL and college football fans around the country.

NFL and college football win totals have been developed over the offseason, and now CG is offering a cross-sport win total opportunity. They have picked pairs of teams based on either geographic similarity, or in the case of the Patriots and Alabama, the perception of them as the frontrunner for their given league.

Our writers took a look at the list and came up with their favorite bets. Betting on a team at -1/2 means you need that team to win one game more than the other team. Betting on a team at +1/2 means you only need the teams to finish with the same number of wins to win your bet.

David Fucillo: 49ers (-1/2) over Southern California

This is a fascinating comparison in light of the possibilities for both teams in 2019. The 49ers win total is sitting at 8 and the big question is what to make of Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s returning from a torn ACL, and has yet to start a full season in the NFL. Add in an overhauled defense, and the 49ers range of possible outcomes is significant.

On the other side, USC is installed at 6.5 wins and they could an even larger range of potential outcomes. Bill Connelly previewed USC heading into 2019, and pointed to nine straight potential one-score games, including four straight to open the season. The Trojans’ season could be made or broken a month in.

I’m a big fat 49ers homer, so I’ll stick with the 49ers as the more likely candidate to rebound in 2019. Graham Harrell is a solid addition at OC for the Trojans, but I’m not seeing them hitting their ceiling this year.

Christian D’Andrea: Raiders (-1 1/2) over UNLV

The poor Rebels. Once the only game in town, they’re soon to be replaced by another 2000s-era doormat when the Raiders get to Las Vegas for their tentative 2020 debut. Everything about Oakland’s move southeast is meant to overshadow its collegiate counterpart.

The Raiders will bring three league championships to town, along with a $2 billion state-of-the-art stadium and a $100 million head coach. The Rebels have three all-time bowl wins — two, according to the NCAA, actually — and will only get to leave the sun-baked confines of Sam Boyd Stadium thanks to the NFL’s nascent arrival.

While UNLV has made modest improvements to jump from the two-win realm and become a steady four- to five-win threat, Jon Gruden went out and gave his team 2019’s biggest overhaul. A hollowed-out four-win squad added players like Antonio Brown, Trent Brown, and LaMarcus Joyner in an attempt to load up on talent prior to the team’s upcoming move. Combine that with one of the league’s easier schedules (aside from four games against the Chiefs and Chargers), and Oakland is set for a revival this fall.

UNLV, on the other hand, has a nearly nonexistent passing offense and one of college football’s worst defenses. While the Rebels will also benefit from a soft schedule, Bill C. only sees them as favorites in four games this fall. I’ll give Gruden the benefit of the doubt for a six-win season in 2019.

Adam Stites: Alabama (PK) over Patriots

Rooting against Alabama or the Patriots is a waste of time. The evil empires of their respective domains just win, win, and win some more. Including bowl victories, Alabama has 11 consecutive double-digit win seasons. The Patriots’ streak of reaching at least 10 wins — albeit with a longer schedule — is at 16 years.

The good news for the NFL is that eventually Father Time will slow Tom Brady down. That’s how it works for every other human, at least. He turns 42 in August and that’s well past the point any quarterback has played at a high level. Prior to Brady’s 29-touchdown 2018, no 41-year-old quarterback ever topped even 10 touchdown passes in a season.

There’s no end in sight for the Crimson Tide’s dominance, though. Alabama had the No. 1 recruiting class this spring, something they’ve had in eight of the last nine years. The best you can hope for is for Alabama to lose a couple games per season.

The rub here is that the win totals do not count any bowl game or College Football Playoff victories. So the maximum victories for Alabama on this prop is 12 wins. You can count on at least 10, probably 11, possibly even 12.

The Patriots won 11 games during the 2018 regular season — their lowest total since 2009 — but still finished as NFL champions. In the months since their Super Bowl victory, Rob Gronkowski retired, Trey Flowers and Trent Brown left in free agency, and Tom Brady — well — got older. They offset some of those losses by adding Michael Bennett in a trade and veteran free agents like Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jared Veldheer, and Demaryius Thomas.

But getting 11 or more wins is going to be difficult. If Brady’s plays drops off even a little, Alabama should be able to top New England’s win total this year.

James Dator: Browns (+1/2) over Ohio State

I’m not going to tell you how to bet, because I am an atrocious bettor. I had a fake ID when I was 16 years old, went to the casino in Sydney on a regular basis, and didn’t learn a thing. What I do know, however, is what’s funny — and the fact we can have any bet that puts Ohio State against the Browns and it carries a meager 1⁄2 line is the best thing I’ve heard this year.

If you went back in time five years and told someone about this bet they would slap you — and you’d deserve to be slapped. That said, give me the Browns on this one. Partially because I love dumb things, and also because look, I actually think this could happen.

There’s no doubt the Browns would need to reach their upper ceiling for this to happen. They went 7-8-1 last year, while Ohio State was 13-1, but have you seen how garbage the 2019 Browns schedule is?

Out of division they play the AFC South, NFC West, and AFC East. Yes, there are a few good teams in that lot — but not exactly the most terrifying outside of the Patriots and Rams. I believe in the Browns, and that is the only time you’ll ever hear me utter the phrase “I believe in the Browns.”

Sarah Hardy: Ohio State (-1/2) over Browns

I have nothing but respect for my colleague James Dator and I’m not saying that he’s wrong. But if you’re asking me to put my trust in either Ohio State football or the Cleveland Browns, I’m picking the Scarlet and Gray every time.

It’s alternate universe-level weird that Ohio State and the Browns are in similar situations entering the new season. A first-time head coach who made a name for himself in a short period of time last year. A roster dripping with high-potential, if still somewhat unproven, talent. A fanbase that’s hopeful but knows there are plenty of questions to answer.

It’s even MORE bizarre that it’s the Browns who have a stable quarterback situation. Here’s what the top of Ohio State’s QB depth chart looked like last year: Dwayne Haskins, Tate (Tathan, if you’re nasty) Martell, Matthew Baldwin.

None of those guys will be back in 2019. Haskins is in the NFL, and the other two transferred out.

Luckily for the Buckeyes, dual-threat quarterback Justin Fields decided to leave Georgia after his freshman year and was granted immediate eligibility. He’s now Ohio State’s highest-rated recruit ever and, barring injury, will be the starting quarterback even if it hasn’t been announced yet (I mean, c’mon). He’ll join an offense that has three-year starter J.K. Dobbins leading a deep running back group, veteran receivers like K.J. Hill and Austin Mack, and a freshman who can make catches like this:

Team Scarlet strikes back‼️@GarrettWilson_V goes UP to pull down the TD pass from @matthewb_12 All tied up at 7⃣#GoBucks | https://t.co/He7w8aQLnY pic.twitter.com/HvwfGSN5YM

— Ohio State Buckeyes (@OhioStAthletics) April 13, 2019

The defense, despite its struggles last season that Haskins was mostly able to mask, was able to cut Greg Schiano loose this winter. It also returns Chase Young (likely Ohio State’s next top-10 draft pick) at pass rusher, has what should be a shutdown secondary with players like Jeff Okudah and Jordan Fuller (Sinbad’s nephew!), and welcomes in top defensive end recruits Zach Harrison and Noah Potter.

Sure, Ohio State had to replace a coach who never lost more than two games in a season during his time in Columbus, and Ryan Day is still a bit of an unknown. It’s also Ohio State. The Buckeyes always reload with four- and five-star recruits who will one day be playing in the NFL. In the last 17 years, they’ve failed to reach double-digit wins only twice. And they get to play Rutgers every year.

The Browns are dealing with high expectations for the first time in decades — longer than Ohio State’s players have been alive — and Freddie Kitchens will have his hands full keeping the drama at bay. It won’t be as easy as it might seem for the Browns to get to nine or more wins. They certainly can do it, but will they?

I want to believe in the Browns. Really, I do. I already believe in Ohio State, though.

Morgan Moriarty: Florida (1) over Jaguars

I have betted a total of like three times in my entire life, so I can’t say that I’m exactly a pro when it comes to this. In fact, I recently won 60 cents at a Pittsburgh casino, if that tells you anything you may need to know about my gambling abilities.

Give me Florida on this one because 1) As a UF alumnus (GO GATA) this is an extremely biased bet with my heart that I’m sure isn’t proper strategy, but YOLO. However, Florida’s got a real shot to make it to the SEC Championship Game this year, as long as it wins one between LSU and Auburn, and can finally beat Georgia. That should get them to at least 10 wins by the end of the regular season. Sure, Feleipe Franks (or Emory Jones?) has to get his shit together, but I feel cautiously optimistic about the QB position under Mullen in Year 2.

I’m aware of the hype that Nick Foles brings to Duval, but the Jags’ schedule doesn’t do them any favors. In 2019, Jax will face the Chiefs, Saints, and Chargers. Not to mention the Jags have some brutal road stretches, including three of four weeks away from home during Week 2 through Week 5, and consecutive road games during Week 15 and 16, facing Oakland and Atlanta, respectively. Don’t get me wrong, Jacksonville is in good shape for the future, but the schedule doesn’t do it any favors in 2019.

Vijay Vemu: Michigan (-1/2) over Bears

There is optimism to be had for both the Chicago Bears and the Michigan Wolverines. Last season, they used their stingy defenses as the backbone for their teams. Chicago, with Khalil Mack, had one of the top defense in the league while Michigan finished in the top 20 in the country in opponents points per game. Even though both had questions surrounding their quarterback play (I still believe in you, Mitchell Trubisky), their offenses did their part as well.

Heading into the 2019 season Chicago is expected to be competing for the NFC North title while Michigan is expected to be one of the top teams in the country.

Chicago is facing a much tougher schedule this fall. Last season it took everyone by surprise and finished with a 12-4 record. This year might not be as easy. The Bears have to play the Rams, Chiefs, Chargers, and Saints this season along with four crucial division matchups against Minnesota and Green Bay. Chicago should be up to the task but given the chaotic nature of the sport, one or two bounces could go against Chicago, costing them some wins.

The same can’t be said about the opponents Michigan will be facing. Their toughest games this season will be against Notre Dame, Penn State, and Ohio State. Their first two games will be non-conferences ones against Middle Tennessee State and Army. Michigan is the cream of the crop in the Big Ten and they have massive expectations. They do get home field in both of their rivalry games (Ohio State, Michigan State) and project to have a top defense according to S&P+.

It’s not often I’m negative against the Bears. But given Michigan’s schedule, they have a better chance of reaching 12 wins than Chicago.

NFL-CFB cross-sport win totals

Raiders; 1½; UNLV Patriots; PK; Alabama Notre Dame; PK; Packers Georgia; 2; Falcons Oregon; PK; Seahawks 49ers; ½; Southern California Steelers; PK; Penn State Ohio State; ½; Browns Michigan; ½; Bears Texas; PK; Cowboys Saints; 1; Louisiana State Florida; 1; Jaguars

0 notes

junker-town · 6 years ago

Text

The Texas A&M-Texas post-breakup rivalry tracker

Realignment broke up one of college football's greatest hate-relationships, but the two won't stop eying each other. Let's keep track as they work their way to meeting up again.

Texas and Texas A&M. It's a relationship that goes way back, but after an ugly conference realignment breakup, the two just can't seem to get back on the same page.

Here's a timeline of their trials and tribulations since splitting apart.

January 19, 2019

A&M president Michael Young and Texas president Greg Fenves both tell the Austin American-Statesman they support a rivalry renewal. But they don’t offer any timetable, and they’re really just leaning on their athletic directors to figure something out:

“It’s a storied rivalry of a hundred years or so,” Fenves said. “We’re supportive’ of renewing it. Young said, “Absolutely. We have been from Day One,” since A&M joined the Southeastern Conference. Added Fenves: “We’ve told our ADs (athletic directors) to figure out a plan and bring it to us.”

Then came the caveats.

“There are some real practical and contractual issues with scheduling non-conference games,” Fenves said. “The SEC is different from the Big 12. We have non-conference games scheduled 10 years out.”

THE HEAT SCALE, rating the flirtatious energy between Texas and A&M: 3. These are just two people saying they really should get together sometime.

May 30, 2018

Texas’ athletic director says the teams will reunite eventually:

Chris Del Conte on renewing UT/A&M football rivalry: "At some point and time we will pick up our rivalry. It’s important to our state and important to our fan base. I’m assuming when it’s appropriate and ready, we’ll play...We’d like to do that, it’s just matching up schedules."

— Chuck Carlton (@ChuckCarltonDMN) May 30, 2018

THE HEAT SCALE: 4. It’s nice to tell your significant other you’ll do something when you can, but this comment loses points for a lack of actual commitment.

Feb. 20, 2018

There we have Texas’ QB responding to a new Texas A&M assistant’s take-slingin’ by noting much of the SEC’s recent glory consists of riding Alabama’s coat tails.

THE HEAT SCALE: 2. Standard jawin’, but good to keep it at a steady simmer.

Oct. 25, 2017

The governor wants to get involved.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott: "My next goal as governor is to reunite the Texas-Texas A&M rivalry. Hook 'em Horns."

— Brian Davis (@BDavisAAS) October 25, 2017

THE HEAT SCALE: 2, because the governor isn’t in charge here. Just because an ex-couple’s parents badly want them to get back together doesn’t mean the kids will go along with it.

July 17, 2017

Texas' new head coach is on board!

Tom Herman on scheduling: "We don't play a rival at home ever. I don't know why we can't play A&M as our marquee non-conference opponent."

— Brian Davis (@BDavisAAS) July 18, 2017

THE HEAT SCALE: 4. Texas' old head coach was also on board, and look where that got us.

June 28, 2017

"Their AD (DeLoss Dodds) at the time came out and said we will never play Texas A&M again, and they worked along with Baylor and the conference to have no one in the (Big 12) schedule us," former A&M AD Greg Byrne said. "There were other forces at work to make sure we didn't play."

THE HEAT SCALE: 4. That story has a bunch of disheartening stuff on this rivalry and Kansas-Missouri, but that particular quote is at least hot.

June 16, 2017

"Me, personally? I think over the course of time that's going to happen," A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin said when asked, while also talking about how well he knows new Horns coach Tom Herman. "With our move to the SEC, scheduling has become a real issue."

THE HEAT SCALE: 3. Sumlin's been predicting a reunion for years now, not that we don't appreciate him doing so.

June 10, 2016

"They're trying to work something out right now where we're going to play the Aggies," Charlie Strong said at an event. A Texas spokesman said no specifics have been discussed, but we didn't even hear any of the words in this second sentence.

THE HEAT SCALE: 8. Do it.Texas and Texas A&M. It's a relationship that goes way back, but after an ugly conference realignment breakup, the two just can't seem to get back on the same page.

April 14, 2016

A&M athletic director Scott Woodward, via DailyTrib.com in Texas:

Will the Aggies play the University of Texas in football again?

"We have to really assess what is our best path to winning the (Southeastern Conference) West," Woodward said. "I don't foresee anything happening in the near future. There are a lot of opinions well above my pay grade. Rivalries, I think, are healthy for the game.

"It'll be something we'll consider," he added. "It'll be a discussion I'll have to have. I have no objection to it. It's something that has to work for us and for folks."

HEAT SCALE: 5.

March 19, 2016

The two nearly played again in March Madness, but Texas had to go and lose to Northern Iowa on a buzzer beater. Aggies everywhere were torn between laughing at rivals and lamenting the chance to square off, but the likely A&M starting QB had the definitive opinion:

lol pic.twitter.com/S95xNzXEfi

— Jake Hubenak (@hubenak_j) March 19, 2016

HEAT SCALE: Unchanged. Laughing at your fallen rival is standard human behavior.

September 30, 2015

Texas A&M regent Tony Buzbee in a Facebook post, via the Austin American-Statesman:

I am going to advocate that the Aggies play Texas again in the near future. Because of our brutal SEC West schedule [...], the Aggies need some cupcake games to rest and heal. In my view, Texas is just as weak if not weaker than the non-conference games we play, so we may as well play them.

HEAT SCALE: 5. Buzbee is, as he mentions, only one regent, and regents aren't athletic directors, but eating pastries is often an enjoyable date activity.

June 18, 2015

Texas A&M chancellor John Sharp is quoted as saying this in response to Texas selling beer at games now:

A&M chancellor Sharp on alcohol at events: "Our athletic program has not reached the point where we require the numbing effects of alcohol."

— Gabe Bock (@GabeBock) June 18, 2015

HEAT SCALE: 3. These rivals can neither imbibe nor abstain without thinking of each other, but we already knew that.

May 8, 2015

A&M chancellor John Sharp took swipes at the Longhorn Network and Texas' recent on-field struggles in an interview.

We're hopeful that sometime in the future there will be a bowl game that we're able to play in, you know, if [Texas] gets there. But the great thing about playing us is that you can get on real TV if you play us.

HEAT SCALE: 2. Sharp ended with "of course I'm just joking about all of this." Stick to your guns, John!

April 16, 2015

When asked about renewing the rivalry, Strong joked that he wasn't pushing too hard for it yet because he wanted to win some games first. Specifically, he said "I don't know if I want to go walking into College Station right now."

That has caught on at A&M, including with incoming five-star defensive tackle Daylon Mack, who signed with the Aggies over Texas.

pic.twitter.com/A7D5F0TWex

— THEE MACK TRUCK (@DaylonMack) April 16, 2015

HEAT SCALE: 7. Twitter banter's usually a 2, but that shirt's a 5 by itself.

April 14, 2015

Oh my:

Texas' Charlie Strong and Texas A&M's Kevin Sumlin both in the last week expressed to ESPN.com a desire to resume playing the longstanding rivalry after a three-year hiatus that coincided with the Aggies leaving the Big 12 and joining the SEC in 2012.

HEAT SCALE: 8.

July 23, 2014

Texas coach Charlie Strong on playing Texas A&M: “You would like to see us play each other"

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) July 23, 2014

HEAT SCALE: 7. We're cookin' now.

May 27, 2014

Texas A&M’s Kevin Sumlin on future games w/Texas: “Eventually I think it will happen"

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) May 27, 2014

HEAT SCALE: 6.

May 26, 2014

Texas and Texas A&M are playing again! In baseball. Postseason baseball, meaning they had no choice.

HEAT SCALE: 3. Baseball.

April 25, 2014

UT AD Steve Patterson told us ``unless there is a compelling reason,'' the football series between Texas and Texas A&M is dead.

— Paul Finebaum (@finebaum) April 25, 2014

HEAT SCALE: 2. There's no reason in love.

April 1, 2014

Texas AD Steve Patterson: Playing A&M "not at the top of my list."

HEAT SCALE: 3. /Patterson throws Strong into a cold shower

March 7, 2014

New Texas head coach Charlie Strong, sharing his thoughts on resuming the rivalry: "I'd love to play it."

HEAT SCALE: 11. Whoa, take it easy, Charlie. You can't come on so strong, that's just going to creep them out

Nov. 20, 2013

A&M president Loftin: "There's no reason why we shouldn't play each other, if we want to. I think (Texas) will at some point in time feel like it's the right thing to do as well, and we'll get there."

HEAT SCALE: 7.

Nov. 6, 2013

After Texas hires Steve Patterson as AD, Texas A&M senior associate AD Jason Cook says the Aggies are not looking to renew the annual rivalry: "We hope to play them again in a BCS bowl or Playoff game at some point."

HEAT SCALE: 3. "I mean, if we run into 'em at a bar or something and they wanna hook up, we're totally down. But we ain't looking for a long-term thing. Just wanna keep it casual, ya know?"

Sept. 11, 2013

Texas A&M DB Toney Hurd Jr. takes to Twitter, proclaiming, "Texas A&M is the university of Texas." Then-Longhorns head coach Mack Brown responds to the media: "We are the university in this state, regardless of what some kid tweets."

HEAT SCALE: 2. They just can't let each other go, but man, it's getting nasty.

May 31, 2013

Texas A&M president R. Bowen Loftin: "It's not relevant to us anymore, that's the whole point. It's not an important issue."

HEAT SCALE: 3. "Who? Yeah, I think I remember someone by that name."

April 1, 2013

OH MAN THEY'RE GETTING BACK TOGETHER.

HEAT SCALE: 0. Wait. Awww dammit, April Fools' got us again.

March 18, 2013

Texas AD Dodds: "They're the ones that decided not to play us. We get to decide when we play again. I think that's fair."

HEAT SCALE: 6. It's not gonna be that easy, baby.

Jan. 29, 2013

Texas State Rep. Ryan Guillen proposes law forcing A&M and Texas to play.

HEAT SCALE: 0. Will you two give it a rest and get back together already. You're all each other talks about, and we're tired of seeing you like this. Jeez.

Nov. 19, 2012

Texas DE Alex Okafor, in the buildup to the Longhorns' new year-end game against TCU: "I feel sorry for A&M. We still have a big-time game on Thanksgiving. They're missing out."

HEAT SCALE: 8. "OH. OH OK YOU FOUND SOMEONE NEW? WELL WE FOUND SOMEONE NEW TOO AND WE'RE DOING JUST FINE." /Texas quickly puts its arm around the first school it can find, which happens to be TCU

May 30, 2012

Texas A&M and LSU agree to become annual end-of-season rivals.

HEAT SCALE: 6. A&M is moving on with its new life in a new place, but one has to think it's hoping Texas will notice the Aggies' sexy new companion.

Nov. 25, 2011

In the final scheduled meeting, Texas defeats A&M, 27-25, on a game-winning field goal as time expires.

HEAT SCALE: 10. Texas just came over to get that last box of t-shirts and CDs, and of course it turned into a raucous night of love-making, just like the old times. A&M was pretty mad when the Longhorns left an upper-decker before running out laughing, though.

Oct. 15, 2011

Texas AD DeLoss Dodds: "What we have right now is a full schedule."

HEAT SCALE: 1. "I can't on Friday. Saturday's no good, either. Neither is next week. Or next month."

Sept. 26, 2011

Someone creates a "Keep the Texas vs. Texas A&M Rivalry Game Tradition Alive - Drama Free" Facebook page. It garnered only 89 likes and, as we all know, didn't get the pair back together.

HEAT SCALE: 1. This isn't really a spark between the 'Horns and Ags. It's a desperate plea from their friends to give it another shot.

Sadness scale: 10. :-(

Aug. 29, 2011

Report surfaces Texas A&M is set to announce its departure from the Big 12.

HEAT SCALE: 1. It has been a long road together, but after one last big fight over A&M wanting its own space, the Longhorns and Aggies agree that they just don't have anything in common anymore, and it's best to go their separate ways.

Any more?

We'll update this as more of these arrive over time (and they certainly will). Did we miss any from the past?

0 notes

junker-town · 7 years ago

Text

Ranking the NFL’s best and worst head coach openings in 2018

Which head coaching job should be the most appealing this offseason?

With the end of the NFL regular season comes the start of the coaching carousel. Right now, six head coaching jobs are open, and there could be more on the way depending on circumstances. For those teams, the main focus is on narrowing down candidates and setting up interviews.

Of course, not every job is going to get filled right away. Some of the hottest coaching candidates are coordinators for playoff teams, and they only have a limited window to interview during the week before preparing for their games. Other candidates aren’t in the postseason but will likely take time to explore their options. For the most part, teams will want a new head coach in place by the end of January before free agency and the draft-scouting process really heats up.

But first, let’s examine the head coaching jobs available and rank which ones are the most appealing. This list largely factors in current talent level, potential for growth, and how well equipped the team is to win in 2018 and beyond.

1. New York Giants

Why it’s available: Ben McAdoo didn’t even get a full season’s afterglow after leading New York to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth in 2016. Poor performances on the field and reports of instability off it left the second-year head coach twisting in the wind with a team that had no interest in playing under him. The result? The franchise’s worst record since 1974 and a midseason firing that left Steve Spagnuolo to pick up the pieces as interim head coach.

Pros to the Giants job:

Well, anyone is going to look like an upgrade over McAdoo.

Ownership is famously patient -- McAdoo notwithstanding — ensuring that the next coach will have the time he needs to change the culture.

The Giants still have theoretical upside with a defense that was one of the league’s best in 2016 and Odell Beckham Jr. coming back from injury.

New GM Dave Gettleman is a respected talent evaluator and should have little problem buying the right groceries for his coach.

Whoever takes the job will have every chance to bring the Giants back to respectability.

Cons to the Giants job:

Eli Manning is the 37-year-old elephant in the room. It’s clear that the Giants need to find their quarterback of the future, but how much longer will they stick with Eli? McAdoo sparked outrage by benching him for Geno Smith, but at some point, New York needs a serious succession plan (which probably doesn’t involve Davis Webb).

Add in a toxic locker room and the glaring fish bowl that is the New York media, and this job probably isn’t as appealing as it looks at first glance.

2. Detroit Lions

Why it’s available: Jim Caldwell wasn’t a good coach in Indianapolis, so it wasn’t entirely surprising he had little to offer a historically snake-bitten Detroit team. He carried on a rich tradition of postseason emptiness over a four-year span, making the Lions just good enough to be disappointing and ensuring Matthew Stafford wouldn’t get his proper due despite his track record of game-winning drives.

He was let go despite a respectable 36-28 record thanks in part to his inability to coax his team to big wins. Caldwell was 0-2 in the playoffs and 2-4 against Aaron Rodgers while failing to rewrite his franchise’s narrative.

Pros to the Lions job:

They have a franchise quarterback in Matthew Stafford, which is half the battle in building an NFL contender.

Stafford is complemented by a solid receiver trio in Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and Kenny Golladay.

The defense has a little star power with Ezekiel Ansah, Darius Slay, and Glover Quin.

The franchise as a whole found a level of stability after the infamous Matt Millen years.

Cons to the Lions job:

This team has multiple holes to fill — the running game has been terrible for years, and the pass rush takes a big hit if Ansah leaves in free agency.

Stafford turns 30 in February, leaving a somewhat limited window to win in his prime.

The new coach will have to decide whether he keeps Jim Bob Cooter and Teryl Austin -- both respected coordinators — or jettisons them to bring in his own guys.

While the franchise is stable, it’s been treading water for a while, and there are real questions about upward mobility in a competitive NFC North.

The Lions’ last playoff win came in 1991.

3. Indianapolis Colts

Why it’s available: The Colts fired general manager Ryan Grigson last offseason, correctly surmising his awful personnel moves were to blame for the franchise’s struggles. This season, they moved on to Grigson’s head coach, canning Chuck Pagano after his first losing season with the club. Pagano was at the helm as the team made three straight playoff appearances and even ran all the way to the AFC Championship in 2014, but diminishing returns from an injured Andrew Luck ultimately prevented the cancer survivor from building off that momentum.

Pros to the Colts job:

Andrew Luck will be back (maybe)! If Luck is fine, maybe the Colts will be fine.

T.Y. Hilton is still good.

GM Chris Ballard did a lot right in his first year.

Cons to the Colts job:

What if Luck isn’t fine? His health can’t be taken for granted after a lost 2017.

Even if he’s back, there are holes all over this roster, and the AFC South isn’t the pushover it once was during Luck’s heyday.

The Colts ranked 30th in the league in both points and yardage allowed this fall.

It’s a potential multi-year project for any incoming coach, which might limit their options for candidates looking to win now.

Don’t forget about the notoriously mercurial owner, Jim Irsay, always lurking in the background.

4. Arizona Cardinals

Why it’s available: The league lost one of its most quoteworthy coaches when Bruce Arians announced his retirement. Injuries and a thin, aging roster ultimately doomed his playoff hopes — the Cardinals lost eight games in each of his last two seasons at the helm. Being forced to play Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert at quarterback will do that.

Pros to the Cardinals job:

The defense has plenty of stars still in their prime years — Patrick Peterson, Chandler Jones, and Tyrann Mathieu — along with up-and-comers like Budda Baker and Haason Reddick.

David Johnson will be back to full health after a wrist injury ended his season in Week 1.

Cons to the Cardinals job:

Just two seasons after they reached the NFC Championship, the Cardinals’ window might already be closed. Larry Fitzgerald and Adrian Peterson could follow Bruce Arians in retirement and Carson Palmer already has.

There aren’t many avenues to competing right now in an NFC West that’s suddenly become loaded from top to bottom.

The Cardinals could be looking at a full-blown rebuild, so unless the older veterans decide to come back, 2018 is already shaping up as a writeoff year.

Jobs that are filled

Oakland Raiders

Update: Jon Gruden will officially be the Raiders’ head coach again.

Why it’s available: The Raiders couldn’t follow up on Derek Carr’s breakout 2016 season, falling to a familiar 6-10 record that elicits memories of the Tom Cable era. A one-dimensional defense gave up more than 350 yards per game, wasting a 2-0 start before limping to the finish line. That led to Jack Del Rio’s ousting, just one year after ending the team’s 13-season playoff drought.

Pros to the Raiders job:

They’re only one year removed from a 12-4 season with Derek Carr putting up MVP-caliber numbers.

The nucleus of a great offense is still there between Carr, Amari Cooper, and a talented offensive line.

Marshawn Lynch still has something left in the tank if he decides to come back.

The defense boasts Khalil Mack, one of the best all-around players in the game.

If a new coach brings in fresh ideas and rejuvenates the locker room, it shouldn’t take much to get back into contention.

Cons to the Raiders job:

The job is probably already filled with Jon Gruden reportedly making a comeback after spending nine years in the ESPN booth.

Players like Carr and Cooper took huge steps back to the point where it’s fair to question their real ceiling.

Mack is basically a one-man show on defense and badly needs help around him.

The impending move to Las Vegas could create an awkward situation.

Chicago Bears

Update: The Bears hired former Chiefs OC Matt Nagy.

Why it’s available: John Fox’s magic ran out in the Midwest, as the coach behind successful — but not too successful — Panthers and Broncos teams failed to achieve a winning season out of three with the Bears. Fox went 14-34 with Chicago, finishing last in the NFC North each season while closing the door on the Jay Cutler era and welcoming in the short-lived Mike Glennon one.

Fox’s 2017 season was his weirdest. The 5-11 Bears failed to win a single game in their own division but somehow went 4-0 against AFC North competition — including a major upset over the Steelers.

Pros to the Bears job:

Mitchell Trubisky remains something of a blank slate, but he showed enough flashes in his rookie season that he could be molded into something good.

Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen have the look of a top running back duo.

The defense is feisty and kept the Bears in games they otherwise had no business winning.

Fans will be happy with any signs of progress after four straight seasons with double-digit losses.

A new extension for general manager Ryan Pace ensures continuity in the front office.

Cons to the Bears job:

If Trubisky is a dud, then the new head coach is stuck with a bad investment he didn’t make.

That’s a risk some candidates might not be willing to take, especially with a lack of weapons at receiver.

The defense will undoubtedly regress if defensive coordinator Vic Fangio leaves.

NFL assistant coaches who could be head coaches

0 notes

junker-town · 7 years ago

Text

Ranking the NFL’s best and worst head coach openings in 2018

Which head coaching job should be the most appealing this offseason?

1. Oakland Raiders

Pros to the Raiders job:

They’re only one year removed from a 12-4 season with Derek Carr putting up MVP-caliber numbers.

The nucleus of a great offense is still there between Carr, Amari Cooper, and a talented offensive line.

Marshawn Lynch still has something left in the tank if he decides to come back.

The defense boasts Khalil Mack, one of the best all-around players in the game.

If a new coach brings in fresh ideas and rejuvenates the locker room, it shouldn’t take much to get back into contention.

Cons to the Raiders job:

The job is probably already filled with Jon Gruden reportedly making a comeback after spending nine years in the ESPN booth.

Players like Carr and Cooper took huge steps back to the point where it’s fair to question their real ceiling.

Mack is basically a one-man show on defense and badly needs help around him.

The impending move to Las Vegas could create an awkward situation.

2. Chicago Bears

Pros to the Bears job:

Mitchell Trubisky remains something of a blank slate, but he showed enough flashes in his rookie season that he could be molded into something good.

Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen have the look of a top running back duo.

The defense is feisty and kept the Bears in games they otherwise had no business winning.

Fans will be happy with any signs of progress after four straight seasons with double-digit losses.

A new extension for general manager Ryan Pace ensures continuity in the front office.

Cons to the Bears job:

If Trubisky is a dud, then the new head coach is stuck with a bad investment he didn’t make.

That’s a risk some candidates might not be willing to take, especially with a lack of weapons at receiver.

The defense will undoubtedly regress if defensive coordinator Vic Fangio leaves.

3. New York Giants

Pros to the Giants job:

Well, anyone is going to look like an upgrade over McAdoo.

Ownership is famously patient -- McAdoo notwithstanding — ensuring that the next coach will have the time he needs to change the culture.

The Giants still have theoretical upside with a defense that was one of the league’s best in 2016 and Odell Beckham Jr. coming back from injury.

New GM Dave Gettleman is a respected talent evaluator and should have little problem buying the right groceries for his coach.

Whoever takes the job will have every chance to bring the Giants back to respectability.

Cons to the Giants job:

Add in a toxic locker room and the glaring fish bowl that is the New York media, and this job probably isn’t as appealing as it looks at first glance.

4. Detroit Lions

Pros to the Lions job:

They have a franchise quarterback in Matthew Stafford, which is half the battle in building an NFL contender.

Stafford is complemented by a solid receiver trio in Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and Kenny Golladay.

The defense has a little star power with Ezekiel Ansah, Darius Slay, and Glover Quin.

The franchise as a whole found a level of stability after the infamous Matt Millen years.

Cons to the Lions job:

This team has multiple holes to fill — the running game has been terrible for years, and the pass rush takes a big hit if Ansah leaves in free agency.

Stafford turns 30 in February, leaving a somewhat limited window to win in his prime.

The new coach will have to decide whether he keeps Jim Bob Cooter and Teryl Austin -- both respected coordinators — or jettisons them to bring in his own guys.

While the franchise is stable, it’s been treading water for a while, and there are real questions about upward mobility in a competitive NFC North.

The Lions’ last playoff win came in 1991.

5. Indianapolis Colts

Pros to the Colts job:

Andrew Luck will be back (maybe)! If Luck is fine, maybe the Colts will be fine.

T.Y. Hilton is still good.

GM Chris Ballard did a lot right in his first year.

Cons to the Colts job:

What if Luck isn’t fine? His health can’t be taken for granted after a lost 2017.

Even if he’s back, there are holes all over this roster, and the AFC South isn’t the pushover it once was during Luck’s heyday.

The Colts ranked 30th in the league in both points and yardage allowed this fall.

It’s a potential multi-year project for any incoming coach, which might limit their options for candidates looking to win now.

Don’t forget about the notoriously mercurial owner, Jim Irsay, always lurking in the background.

6. Arizona Cardinals

Pros to the Cardinals job:

The defense has plenty of stars still in their prime years — Patrick Peterson, Chandler Jones, and Tyrann Mathieu — along with up-and-comers like Budda Baker and Haason Reddick.

David Johnson will be back to full health after a wrist injury ended his season in Week 1.

Cons to the Cardinals job:

There aren’t many avenues to competing right now in an NFC West that’s suddenly become loaded from top to bottom.

The Cardinals could be looking at a full-blown rebuild, so unless the older veterans decide to come back, 2018 is already shaping up as a writeoff year.

0 notes

junker-town · 7 years ago

Text

Power rankings: Why Big 12 football will be much improved in 2017

Now that Bill’s studied every Big 12 team, here’s how he stacks them up. Also, here are some charts and stuff!

At the end of each conference previews run-through, I take a look at how I perceive the conference's balance of power heading into the season. This is in no way based on schedules, so they are not predictions. This is just how I would rank the teams after writing thousands of words about each of them. So far we’ve done the Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC, MWC, and AAC.

Bill C’s Big 12 power rankings

Here’s a link to every team’s data, and each team’s name below is linked to its preview.

Tier 1

1. Oklahoma

The Big 12 was the worst power conference in the country in 2016. A few months after the season ended, the Big 12 also produced the fewest draft picks of any power conference. It’s funny how those two data points work in concert, isn’t it? We treat them like separate things, and we reacted to the Big 12’s draft problems like it was a sign of future doom instead of a reinforcement of what we already knew.

Make no mistake, though: this was not a good conference. And you can break the causes of this struggle into two categories: Texas and non-Texas.

This is Texas’ fault. Just as the SEC will struggle to reach its ceiling when Alabama is struggling, or the Big Ten with Ohio State, or the Pac-12 with USC, the Big 12 is not going to be at its full potential when one of its two blue-bloods isn’t acting like a blue-blood. Since losing in 2009’s BCS title game against Alabama, Texas has only once ranked in the S&P+ top 20 and has not won double-digit games in a season. Over the last four years — Mack Brown’s last season, plus the Charlie Strong era — the Horns had an average S&P+ ranking of 44.8 and an average win total of six. When Texas is playing like Georgia Tech (S&P+ No. 45 in 2016) or Memphis (No. 44 in 2015) instead of Texas, the Big 12 is not going to be its best self.

This is everyone else’s fault, too. Texas returning to a top-10 level would liven up the conference. But everybody was a problem in 2016. Oklahoma fell from third to 10th in S&P+ but ran away with the conference anyway, and the best non-OU and non-UT teams failed to do much of anything. Between 2007 and 2015, the top three Big 12 teams not named OU or Texas had an average S&P+ ranking between 11.7 and 18. In 2016, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Kansas State combined for an average ranking of 27.3.

The good news: almost everybody is projected to improve. This was a young conference — another reason for the draft issues — and S&P+ expects seven of 10 teams to perform better this fall. Two others (WVU and Kansas) have enough transfers to lead you to believe they might avoid regression as well.

Texas was one of the youngest teams in the country, and TCU wasn’t far behind. They’re both projected to surge. Oklahoma State might have the best passing game in the country. Kansas State could have one of the nation’s best running games.

Texas is projected 16th in S&P+, and the top three non-OU/UT teams are projected to improve their average to 23.7. Things aren’t A-OK all of a sudden, but there should be a bounce back.

Great. Now who challenges OU? There still isn’t a clear equal in my eyes. But there are a few candidates.

Tier 2

2. Oklahoma State 3. Texas 4. Kansas State 5. TCU

I’m not going to lie: it’s easy to talk yourself into Texas. The Longhorns have major defensive questions like virtually everybody in the conference. But their level of returning production all but guarantees stark improvement, and, well, there might not be a better underdog coach in the country than Tom Herman.

In 2015, Herman’s Houston was a 3-point underdog against Louisville and won by three. The Cougars were 2-point underdogs to Navy and won by 21. They were 7.5-point underdogs in the Peach Bowl and won by 14. And in 2016, they did the deed twice in dramatic fashion, beating Oklahoma by 10 as 13-point underdogs and Louisville by 26 as 17-point dogs.

This is Herman’s one chance to be an underdog coach at Texas. We don’t know what he’s like as a program builder because we haven’t seen him build a program, but the lightning-in-a-bottle potential is high.

Tier 3

6. Baylor 7. West Virginia 8. Iowa State

Baylor could have the best defense in the conference but has major offensive questions. WVU is coming off a solid season and inked a lot of interesting transfers, but has to replace more of last year’s production than any other power conference team. Iowa State is looking to move from being a three-quarter team to being a four-quarter team.

I can talk myself into any of the three — seriously, don’t be surprised if ISU turns out to be pretty damn good — but I feel they have bigger question marks than the four in Tier 2.

Tier 4

9. Texas Tech 10. Kansas`

Texas Tech is still going to have one of the more dangerous offenses in the country, but has by far the most to prove defensively. Kansas could have one of the best defenses in the conference, but is playing catch-up after years of regression.

I like this conference’s bottom two more than I have in recent years, but they’re still the bottom two in my eyes.

How does S&P+ see things?

Here’s how my statistical system has the Big 12 laid out for 2017, with 0 equating to an average FBS team. (You can find full 2017 S&P+ projections here.)

Massive returning production and top-30 recruiting are enough to push Texas and TCU to the top of the “not OU” list, but OSU isn’t far behind. They’re all looking up at faraway OU, though.

2017 projected standings (per S&P+)

Projected conference wins, with overall wins in parentheses.

Oklahoma 7.3 (9.7)

Texas 5.9 (8)

Oklahoma State 5.6 (7.9)

TCU 5.5 (7.9)

Baylor 4.9 (7.3)

Kansas State 4.5 (7)

Iowa State 3.6 (5.8)

Texas Tech 3.4 (5.2)

West Virginia 3.1 (5.1)

Kansas 1.3 (3.1)

How these teams looked in 2016

Big 12 offenses heading into 2017

Eight of 10 teams were packed together from an efficiency standpoint in 2016, but big-play potential varied wildly. OU should fall back to the pack, but as long as coordinator Lincoln Riley and quarterback Baker Mayfield are in Norman, the ceiling’s really high.

Best 2017 offensive players by team (best overall in bold):

Baylor: RB Terence Williams

Iowa State: WR Allen Lazard

Kansas: OT Hakeem Adeniji

Kansas State: OT Dalton Risner

Oklahoma: QB Baker Mayfield

Oklahoma State: QB Mason Rudolph

TCU: C Austin Schlottmann

Texas: OT Connor Williams

Texas Tech: WR Keke Coutee

West Virginia: RB Justin Crawford

There’s quite a bit of turnover at the skill positions, but eight teams return at least a part-time starting quarterback, and there are a lot of good linemen. And the best line in the conference will be protecting the best player in the conference.

Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

Baker Mayfield

Big 12 defenses

This conference does not have many slam-dunk stars at tackle or cornerback, but appears well set at end, linebacker, and safety.

Best 2017 defensive players by team (best overall in bold):

Baylor: DE K.J. Smith

Iowa State: LB Willie Harvey

Kansas: DE Dorance Armstrong Jr.

Kansas State: CB D.J. Reed

Oklahoma: DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo

Oklahoma State: LB Chad Whitener

TCU: S Niko Small

Texas: LB Breckyn Hager

Texas Tech: LB Dakota Allen

West Virginia: S Kyzir White

That’s right, Kansas might have the best defensive player in the league. Hell, the Jayhawks might have the best defense in the league.

Okay, probably not, but top three at least.

Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Dorance Armstrong Jr.

0 notes