#( and it’d also put mercy in a potential conflict of going against their nature )

[endawn]

[kitsoa]

The Fated Showdown Pt. 1-The Lights

I find the debate over who’s assembling on which side to be the most interesting topic on the KH3 speculation train. Mainly because of how much of a toss up it is. And you’d think the possibilities are vast because of the ‘empty seats’ in need of filling but no Nomura makes it a toss up because each side has too many candidates. The roster is oversized, meaning that we have to essentially count on a shake up happening over the course of the game to let this master plan play out to some completion. So let’s try predicting that shake up shall we?

Disclaimer: This is just my opinion and I’m basing my percentages off of a personal hunch and no real science.

Very long post under the cut. Break down of points:

The Lights

The Shake-up

Line the Pieces

The Lights.

The per-requite for being a Guardian of Light seems to simply be that one must be a Keyblade wielder on the good side. When reviewing the viable candidates who are active and capable of function at the start of the game we have: Mickey, Sora, Riku, then Kairi and Lea in training. Since there’s no reason why their training status should disqualify them from intended candidacy that leaves 2 spots empty. So then we go to our list of wielders to save:

Aqua, Ventus, and Roxas.

It shouldn’t be assumed that the sole reason in saving these folks is to fill the Guardian roster-- so the intent and ambition to do so does not make them a guaranteed part of the the prophecy. That being said, one doesn’t need to be intended to save to be a viable candidate for the Lights. It isn’t like no one wants to save Terra, he just has virtually no leads for rescue from their perspective, so they are at a standstill. Doesn’t mean he couldn’t be a Light-- more on that later. Similarly so, Xion has no present rescue intent from our understanding so far (though hints at Lea remembering her could spawn an attempt), but her potential is about as equal as anyone else, should she be saved. So the count of potentials to take the last two spot is 5-- with Aqua, Ventus, Terra, Roxas, and Xion standing some kind of chance in the toss up. This is knowing that our heroes will not cut corners and work equally hard to save them all should the opportunity come up-- guardian or not.

Now it’s about the probability in our heroes succeeding in the respective rescues and the resulting chances of them being a Guardian.

Aqua.

Her status at being taken by the darkness puts a wrench in this rescue plan, but from trailer context we can tell that they aren’t going to take Aqua’s stint in the dark side lying down. We are getting a boss fight and a passionate rescue attempt for sure as Mickey knows where she is and makes clear plans to go for her. The TGS trailer has multiple flashes of situations both with Aqua taken by darkness and not. The question is which status lingers to the end when the prophecy is realized.

She is seen normal during a supposed conflict with Vanitas at the Land of Departure during some kind of Ventus awakening (considering the glow of light from the throne). She is also untouched by darkness in a conflict on the Dark Margin in the Realm of Darkness with Ansem SoD-- suspiciously the place where she also does battle with our protagonist under that influence (so which comes first is the question). Finally, and the biggest hint at what I think is a successful rescue, is Sora’s hand reaching in the water. Call it literal or in some kind of symbolism, the message is clear. Aqua is getting saved from the darkness that over takes her before the prophecy comes to fruition. Her chances of being a Guardian are at 85%.

Ventus

Serving as the story’s current damsel in distress, Ventus has no active agency toward his fate and is at the mercy of Sora and Aqua’s success and the forces against them. We know that Vanitas shows interest and is present before his sleeping body in the TGS trailer. While you can’t say he’s won outright he does beat everyone to him in some form, but this is easily a boss fight set up. The thing about boss fights is that game determined success does not translate to story success. This becomes less of an issue as we see a picture of Sora before Ventus Station of Awakening which all but confirms that Ventus is waking up. Barring some last minute hijack or tragedy, he’s a potential shoe in for the Guardians. His chances are at 73%.

Roxas

He seems to be the primary rescue attempt presented during the trailers, with a clear sub-plot dealing with his data in the virtual Twilight Town. We can see from the last teasing shot that there is some kind of success in resurrecting him, but the question comes from if he’ll be on the side of the Lights. I’ve talked about this in an ask about Roxas’ norting chances  and I stick by it for the most part. He’s got a ton of potential toward the bad side considering the trailer framing and a decent foundation for darkness, but the progression of his resurrection and the chances of different character getting that honor brings down his chances. As such, I put Roxas at a tentative 60% Guardian of Light.

Xion

As stated before there’s no one actively seeking her rescue but the idea of her being inadvertently rescued or the motivation rising later still stands in the realm of possibility. We get an idea from the orchestra snippets, the canon quotes from the leaflet promotion, and the potential context from that clip of him crying that Lea is poised to start remembering her in some form. Thus him wanting and aiming to save her could come to a realization. At this point it’s not terribly strong nor are there any clear leads at what could bring her resurrection. So her chances are at 25% for being a Guardian of Light.

Terra

Terra’s tricky because no one knows where he is. The result of Xehanort’s reformation has us wondering if Terra’s back to his normal self as well, which I might assume if Xehanort wasn’t so vague about harboring him in DDD and a brief image of Terranort wasn’t seen in the TGS trailer... But even so I think we can’t immediately come to the conclusion that he’s been compromised by the darkness. Bluffing is a thing... and while I seem to take trailers as law in this analysis what we got was extremely lacking context. Furthermore, I would say that we can’t be sure that all pieces of Terra’s being were available for re-assemblage at the destruction of Xemnas and Ansem-- namely, the “Terra’s Heartless is the Guardian” theory could very well be true, potentially putting his heart in Riku’s path (a la Ansem’s possession of Riku and the resulting lingering darkness dealt with in COM could belong in part to Terra)... but we also must consider the Lingering Will possessing Terra’s Soul. And in that case, there has been no catalyst to release that aspect of Terra’s being toward the reforming needed to revive him.

So taking this uncertainty as true and calling Xehanort on the potential bluff he has about Terra (which may be a nonissue if he’s referring to Aqua at the time)-- the heroes would still have to put him together somehow or find him. This still has a chance of happening and could in fact be a major trump card against Xehanort’s big gambit. I think this could be vital in outsmarting this plan but that’s for another analysis. The chances of this happening are low, but just unexpected enough to be worth consideration. I put Terra’s Guardianship chances at 30%.

So What’s the Shake Up?

While it’s anyone’s guess who outside the active players is getting in, it’s worth understanding that even those in the “confirmed” category are not safe. This is where the real shake up happens, both opening up more spots and making use of the cast of rescuees. We can almost guarantee something is going to mess up the intended count on the Light side (and even more so with the New Organization’s numbers)-- how that takes form and who it shall take is the question.

How--

Any of the confirmed subjects can be incapacitated in some way, kidnapped, cast away, god-forbid killed for real (which I don’t see happening at all but the point is made)-- as long as it prevents them from being present on the side of the light when the prophecy comes to pass. Of course we have another method of removal and that comes in ‘nortification’ (I still can’t believe it’s a verb). Unconfirmed characters being norted are always a possibility and there’s a good chance of these active players getting stolen from the roster by Xehanort to add to his. While I believe there may be unforeseen variables in regards to the actual prophecy, I’ll focus on the main means of removal.

Who--

Knowing what can potentially take the existing members out of the running, it really narrows down the possibilities. Kairi, Riku, and Mickey are safe from ‘norting because of lore logic and cold hard Disney image preservation respectively. This doesn’t exclude the other means of take out so they all roughly find themselves on equal footing, their potential to be taken off the roster lying under 25% each.

So naturally the only existing Lights in danger of the most potent fate are Lea and Sora.

Lea has his subplot with Isa to consider. The sake of drama could lend itself to a sacrifice or being bested before the prophecy comes to pass. My imagination goes towards Lea swapping ‘norting places with Isa to save him, but that’s ultimately countered by his strong sense of justice and the other factors (i.e. Roxas) motivating him against the Darkness (it’d also be clumsy because he’s already a reformed bad guy). Still the plot with Isa seems to be chugging forward as seen with the trailer clips with him encountering his old friend on the clock tower among other possibilities. This does mean that things are moving and could result in an unfortunate outcome, more so than the lore-safe characters. Potential for Lea to get taken out of the running-- 40%.

Sora got a million red flags. The chances of him being taken out from Nortification alone are exponentially higher than the other characters and I talk about it in that same ask about Roxas, this taking into account the content in the trailers, the circumstantial evidence, and the narrative hints toward this fate.  I would only adjust my 81% norting chance to a 71% only because I think one has to account the probability of something other than norting to take him out. I would say there’s a 15% chance something unforeseen takes him out of the running which I will elaborate on with the final 14% being Sora on the side of Lights. Final Verdict? 86% chance Sora’s not going to be a Light.

Line the pieces up

So reviewing all these possibilities while understanding that there are still many unforeseen variables, makes finding the final outcome to be interesting to say the least. Logic has it that our current 2 seat vacancy will increase to a 3 seat vacancy and this filled by the 3 clearly intended rescuees.This puts a logical roster at:

Mickey, Riku, Kairi, Lea, Roxas, Ventus, and Aqua.

Roxas could end up taking the helm in Sora’s place, aligning with the ‘big secret’ buzz surrounding his involvement. The efforts of the game will be to fill the 2 spots and unknowingly find Sora’s replacement, making no plot line a ‘waste’.

Even so, I could definitely see a shake up of even this scenario take Lea out of the running as well-- or perhaps we Shoo Out The Clowns by tying Mickey up in a different and equally important sub-plot to make room for a surprise Terra. For the record, a big last minute show of heroics on the side of the Light would be a very desirable twist with all the villainous wins we are foreseeing. This isn’t an outright endorsement of Soranort, because I ultimately believe we will have multiple layers of subversion happening but I really think Sora’s got a good chance of not getting on the roster. 

Now that we’ve got the Heroes chances accounted for, it’s time to delve into the New Organization in Part 2 of this analysis.