#//actually i wonder if he Does pay four and rookie (eight like both Is and Isn't an official agent it's complicated but she also like.

[djsangos]

im not unemployed but im self employed and thats basically the same thing

[yahoo-puck-daddy-blog]

What We Learned: The Wild are going to be expensive, but will they be good?

The Wild have a large range of outcomes for 2018-19. (Photo by Jason Halstead /Getty Images)

Off the top of your head, where do you see the Minnesota Wild finishing in the Central this season?

They’re only technically in the same league as the division’s twin titans of Nashville and Winnipeg, which seem destined to finish 1-2  (you pick the order).

Of course, the Wild finished in that third spot last year; a distant third, mind you, with a 13-point gap between Winnipeg and themselves. And that came with some serious ups and downs; they were one of the worst possession teams in the league last year, and really only got to where they were because of an a PDO that was ninth-highest in the league.

And to be fair, they had a number of key players miss a pretty good amount of time. Jared Spurgeon only played 61 games. Zach Parise just 47. Nino Niederreiter checked in at only 63. Those are all very useful players and if they’re missing a quarter or close to half of a season, your on-ice results are going to suffer, especially if they miss a bunch of games at the same time.

But at the same time, Eric Staal scored 42 goals and 76 points. Jason Zucker cleared 30 in both goals and assists. Mikael Granlund had 67 points. Ryan Suter and Matt Dumba both hit 50 points from the blue line. Devan Dubnyk was once again top-notch at .918 in 60 appearances.

The problem for the Wild, then, is that the rest of the division seems to be improving, and it was pretty tightly packed around the middle of the Central to begin with. Nine points separated Minnesota from sixth-place Dallas, with Colorado and St. Louis between them. I would argue that all those teams improved this offseason, and Chicago should be (much) better if Corey Crawford is fully healthy, even if they’re not the Chicago of old.

Note that many of the Wild players I just listed as having enjoyed great seasons are, for the most part, outside their prime production years. Staal and Suter will turn 34 during next season. Spurgeon will turn 29. Dubnyk just turned 32. Other teams have aging producers as well, obviously, but these were some pretty outsized years from past-their-primes players, so it’ll be interesting to see what they can actually put together in 2018-19.

The real problem with the Wild, though, is the playoff format. The gap between Nashville/Winnipeg and the rest of that division is so significant in terms of on-paper quality (you can never guess when injury or quirky underperformance will rear their heads) that you’re better off finishing in the wild card spot in the division and taking your chances with the winner of the Pacific than finishing third and getting as brutally crumpled as the Wild did in the first round last year.

And with the new contract Matt Dumba signed over the weekend — five years with a $6 million AAV, the value of which I’ll get to in a minute here — this team is about $5.6 million south of the cap limit, and still have to re-sign Zucker, who has 111 points over the last two seasons. That scoring total ties him for 63rd in the league in that time, just ahead of Jordan Eberle and Sean Couturier, for instance, and likely means he’s going to be looking for a fat paycheck. That probably pushed Minnesota up around the absolute top of the league in terms of cap obligations.

(Also worth noting: There are few Bruce Boudreau stans in the hockey media bigger than me, but my man only has so much to work with, y’know?)

So this is a cap-limit team with a first-round-limit ceiling in the playoffs unless things go very heavily their way. This is, I guess, why the team brought in a new front office crew this summer; there’s a recognition that they’ve built a rather expensive team that probably reached its peak in terms of reasonable competition within the division, let alone the Western Conference or league writ large. And with so many of their top players (such as they are) on the wrong side of 30, one wonders how much longer this approach is going to be kept up.

Simply put, seventy-nine-point-something million dollars a year to get bounced in the early rounds of the playoffs again isn’t and shouldn’t be viewed as a tenable situation, but as I wrote repeatedly like four or five years, simply paying a lot of money to players who are above-average but certainly not stars in the league doesn’t make them worth their contracts. The Parise and Suter contracts don’t expire for seven more seasons and it’s a hell of a lot of money to spend on two guys whose impact on the ice is going to diminish.

The good news is there aren’t too many long-term commitments otherwise — Dumba and Niedereitter, both of whom are under 26, are the only other guys signed for more than the next three seasons — and the team does have some promising, youngish players to supplement the old guard. That Dumba contract is probably a little too much in terms of AAV, but he has 35 goals over the last three seasons and you gotta pay for guys like that, I guess.

Only 12 defensemen in the salary cap era besides Dumba have cleared 50 points in a season before the age of 24, so what are you gonna do? The term is fine, for sure, but Dumba doesn’t really move the needle in terms of underlying numbers; he’s still improving given his age, but paying a lot for that particular player seems more optimistic than rational. Because of those 13 defensemen, only eight repeated their 50-performances at least once before turning 28.

Nice to have young players who can make an impact, certainly, but the Wild fall into that classic trap of having a number of goodish, cheapish young guys and goodish, expensive old guys and very little in between, which doesn’t allow for a continuity of quality over years.

And with this team in particular, what even is that quality, really? Can you really afford to run out the clock with all these early-to-mid-20s and mid-30s players over the next three years if this is where you’re gonna get?

While anyone can get on a hot run and make a deep playoff push, the Wild don’t really have a realistic chance to do that unless they land outside their own division for the playoffs. Which is theoretically possible, but in actual practice you shouldn’t want to hope you finish seventh or eighth in the West to get a viable path to the Conference Final, where you’re likely to get clubbed anyway.

So the Wild, again, seem to be at a crossroads with the direction of their franchise, but none of their paths forward seem particularly favorable.

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: They’re officially bringing back, well, a version of the original Mighty Ducks jersey, which should just be their actual jersey anyway. This one kinda stinks but what are you gonna do?

Arizona Coyotes: God if the Coyotes are worth $500 million, what’s Vegas worth now, a year after paying that same amount of money to be a team?

Boston Bruins: The cool thing about if the Bruins got Artemi Panarin? He would be the second-best left wing on the team.

Buffalo Sabres: Casey Mittelstadt looks like he could soon be a difference-maker at the NHL level, which is probably a little ahead of schedule to be honest.

Calgary Flames: The Flames love putting useful young depth players on waivers for no reason, but at least they didn’t lose Brett Kulak for nothing like they did Paul Byron.

Carolina Hurricanes: I would not recommend making a 19-year-old rookie your No. 1 center, no.

Chicago: Jonathan Toews wants a big bounce-back season for himself and his team. I want a million dollars. Nice to want things.

Colorado Avalanche: The Avs are probably going to avoid arbitration with Patrik Nemeth and that’s the only guy they need to re-sign at this point.

Columbus Blue Jackets: *Craig Finn voice* Don’t let Oliver Bjorkstrand explode!!!!

Dallas Stars: You can say what you want about the Stars but there really aren’t that many bad contracts on the books.

Detroit Red Wings: Wow the Red Wings might actually play talented kids instead of mediocre 29-year-olds in important situations. Signs and wonders.

Edmonton Oilers: Put Joe Gambardella in the NHL. Yes. Do it. Think about where he went to college and don’t be a coward!!!

Florida Panthers: Vinnie Viola is selling his mansion in New Jersey and I’m buying it.

Los Angeles Kings: A great mid-July pastime is to look at NHL signings and guess what percentage of them are AHL-quality goons. Here’s one now.

Minnesota Wild: The Wild have a new AHL head coach and it seems like when you’re hiring guys out of the Penguins coaching system you’re making a good decision.

Montreal Canadiens: This is brutal.

Nashville Predators: Yes. Thanks for asking.

New Jersey Devils: Only roster eight defensemen if you’re gonna play seven every night. Which, by the way, you should do that.

New York Islanders: Frankly, gang, I don’t know that they have much of a choice in the whole “should we tank?” discussion.

New York Rangers: When the richest and biggest-name teams in the league are openly saying they’re “rebuilding” that should be a good indication that it’s a perfectly okay thing for every team to do when needed.

Ottawa Senators: This is going really great.

Philadelphia Flyers: Man, that Forsberg-to-Nashville trade effectively got the Flyers Scottie Upshall, Ryan Parent, Scott Hartnell, and Kimmo Timonen plus a third-round pick? Good lord!

Pittsburgh Penguins: Okay, sure, Derek Grant. That’s someone.

San Jose Sharks: Chris Tierney? That’s even more someone.

St. Louis Blues: This is a take where I go, “Ahhhh, maybe?” Which kinda defeats the purpose of the take.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Really feels like everyone in Tampa is just sitting around going, “Well jeez hey when’s this Karlsson thing happening? Soon? Soon. Gotta be soon.”

Toronto Maple Leafs: Andreas Johnsson‘s one of those guys where it’s like, “Yeah he’s probably a real player.” He went point-a-game in his second AHL season and 1.5 a game in the playoffs. Granted, that’s on a stacked team, but he’s 23 and a guy who can score like that is probably a good bottom-six option at an absolute minimum.

Vancouver Canucks: I would not want to be in the business of extending Alex Edler, despite his long-term status with the org.

Vegas Golden Knights: It’s really too bad the Golden Knights didn’t have to change their name. That would have been so funny.

Washington Capitals: Yeah, no.

Winnipeg Jets: I’m gonna write more about Trouba this week but: yikes.

Gold Star Award

Maybe this makes me a kook in hockey circles but every NHL team should have as many jerseys as they want. Who cares as long as they’re cool or weird or whatever? I don’t like the Ducks’ new “classic-inspired” thirds but at least they’re trying something. More throwbacks would be a good thing.

Minus of the Weekend

This is some kinda take.

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week

User “Kshahdoo” loves this time of year.

STL gets Panarin (but only with extention) Toronto gets Parayko Columbus gets Nylander

Signoff

Help! Help!

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)

[yahoo-shutdown-corner-blog]

NFL Winners and Losers: Judging all the major trades that happened in 2017

For many years, the NFL wasn’t much of a trading league. Sure there were a lot of draft-pick trades and a few player trades here and there, but it wasn’t like Major League Baseball or anything.

That has shifted a bit. There were plenty of interesting deals that happened before, during and after this year’s draft. We debated the trades at the time, but now it’s time to look back at the winners and losers from the major deals that went down.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was involved in perhaps the biggest trade of 2017. (AP)

March 9, Houston Texans trade QB Brock Osweiler, 2017 sixth-round pick and 2018 second-round pick to Cleveland Browns for 2017 fourth-round pick

A unique trade, because it was the kind of salary-dump deal you see in MLB or the NBA but almost never in the NFL. If you thought it was worth it at the time for the Browns to basically pay $16 million for a second-round pick, you love it now that the Texans are crashing toward a top-five pick. And while the price tag was steep, it’s just money and I’m not owner Jimmy Haslam’s accountant, so … WINNER: Browns

March 10, New Orleans Saints trade WR Brandin Cooks to New England Patriots for 2017 first-round pick and 2017 third-round pick

This trade turned out better for the Saints than I thought. They used that first-rounder on offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk, who has been a great addition to their line. The other pick, defensive end Trey Hendrickson, has a couple sacks in 12 games and the Saints have to feel he can contribute more as he matures. The Patriots have to be happy with Cooks’ 1,003 yards and six touchdowns. His game-winner in the final seconds of a Week 3 win over the Houston Texans might end up being the difference in the Patriots getting the No. 1 seed. Honestly, I don’t think either team regrets this deal. WINNER: Push

April 27, Chicago Bears trade No. 3 overall pick, 2017 third- and fourth-round picks and a 2018 third-round pick to San Francisco 49ers for the No. 2 overall pick (QB Mitch Trubisky)

I said it then and I’ll say it now: I have no problem with what the Bears did. When you haven’t had an All-Pro quarterback since 1950, you’re allowed to make bold moves. It was never about what the 49ers would do with the pick, it was the concern that the Browns or someone else would leap-frog the Bears to get No. 2 and snatch Trubisky. If you’ve watched games and not just scanned box scores, you can see the promise in Trubisky. Assuming the Bears find the right head coach to develop him and get him some help, he should be good. All that said, it was a very nice haul for the 49ers, who traded both 2017 picks they got to make other moves in the draft and still got defensive lineman Solomon Thomas third overall. WINNER: 49ers, but the Bears could ultimately claim victory

April 27, Kansas City Chiefs trade No. 27 overall pick (CB Tre’Davious White), 2017 third-round pick and 2018 first-round pick to Buffalo Bills for No. 10 overall pick (Patrick Mahomes)

Hard to dislike this trade for the Bills. White has been a very good cornerback as a rookie, the third-round pick was used to move back up to draft receiver Zay Jones (the jury is very much out on that pick, however) and the first-rounder will be late but still has a lot of value. However, I believe in Mahomes. I think he would have been a great fit in Buffalo, where they are oddly cold on Tyrod Taylor. Next season, I think we’ll see a star born in Kansas City. WINNER: Chiefs

April 27, Houston Texans trade No. 25 overall pick (S Jabrill Peppers) and 2018 first-round pick to Cleveland Browns for No. 12 overall pick (QB Deshaun Watson)

Peppers hasn’t had a great rookie season, but hopefully the Browns use him better in future years. The 2018 pick will be very high because the Texans are awful. And still, if you knew what you know now, the Texans would do this trade 100 out of 100 times and the Browns never would. Assuming Watson comes back strong from a torn ACL, he looks like a special player and worth the cost of moving up to get him. Meanwhile, the Browns still search for a quarterback. WINNER: Texans

April 28, New Orleans Saints trade 2017 seventh-round pick and 2018 second-round pick to San Francisco 49ers for 2017 third-round pick (RB Alvin Kamara)

I won’t run down every draft trade here, but this one was notable. You might argue with trading future second-round picks for third-rounders right away, but the Saints obviously liked Kamara and they were right. Kamara is a favorite to win NFL offensive rookie of the year and should have been drafted in the top half of the first round. The seventh-round pick became defensive back Adrian Colbert, who has started five games for the 49ers, and they’ll get a good player near the end of the second round next year. But this was the type of strong move that helped turn the Saints into Super Bowl contenders. WINNER: Saints

June 1, Cleveland Browns trade LB Demario Davis to New York Jets for S Calvin Pryor

Oh, Browns. Davis was part of a somewhat crowded depth chart at linebacker, so the Browns shipped him to the Jets and tried to revive former first-rounder Pryor’s career. Nope. Davis has turned in a fine season, setting career highs for tackles and sacks. And he’s only 28 years old. Pryor was cut after a practice fight with receiver Ricardo Louis, and was picked up by the Jaguars and cut after two games with them. WINNER: Jets by a mile

Aug. 11, Buffalo Bills trade WR Sammy Watkins to Los Angeles Rams for CB E.J. Gaines and 2018 second-round pick

The first of two Bills blockbusters that led everyone to wonder if they were tanking. The Bills have been fine without Watkins, Gaines has been a starting cornerback and the second-round pick should be nice. Watkins has 593 yards and eight touchdowns for a very good offense so it’s unlikely the Rams regret the move, but the Bills got a lot of bang for their buck. WINNER: Bills

Aug. 11, Buffalo Bills trade CB Ronald Darby to Philadelphia Eagles for WR Jordan Matthews and 2018 third-round pick

This move wasn’t as good for the Bills. Darby got hurt early, but has played well and will be a key part of a defense that has Super Bowl hopes. His interception on Monday night led to the game-winning field goal in a 13-10 win that clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC for Philly. Matthews had just 282 yards and went on IR to have knee and ankle surgery. The pick is nice, but Darby wins the deal. WINNER: Eagles

Sept. 1, New York Jets trade DT Sheldon Richarson and 2018 seventh-round pick to Seattle Seahawks for WR Jermaine Kearse, 2018 second-round pick and 2018 seventh-round pick

Funny, but Kearse might have ended up as the best player in the deal. Kearse ended up being a quality starting receiver for the Jets, and he’s only 27 years old. Richardson hasn’t been bad, but he hasn’t had a huge impact, can become a free agent and there’s rumors he wants to reunite with the Jets. WINNER: Jets 

Sept. 2, Indianapolis Colts trade WR Phillip Dorsett to New England Patriots for QB Jacoby Brissett

The Patriots showcased Brissett in the fourth preseason game, the 2016 third-round pick played great, and then they traded him for practically nothing. Dorsett, a former first-round pick, was a bust with the Colts and has touched the ball all of 13 times for the Patriots, including returns. Brissett has done his best behind a horrendous offensive line and has had some good moments. He at very least projects as a high end backup, which has value. Brissett would have had value to a team whose starter is 40 years old and traded Jimmy Garoppolo during the season. I still don’t get what the Pats were thinking. WINNER: Colts

Oct. 10, Arizona Cardinals trade 2018 sixth-round pick to New Orleans Saints for RB Adrian Peterson

Peterson had a couple moments of glory for the Cardinals, including 134 yards in his Cards debut and a 159-yard game in a win over the 49ers. Perhaps that is worth a sixth-round pick. However, Peterson is on IR now and will probably be cut in the offseason. The Saints got a sixth-round pick for a back who never played and did not seem happy with his role. Seems good. WINNER: Saints

Oct. 30, New England Patriots trade QB Jimmy Garoppolo to San Francisco 49ers for 2018 second-round pick

Well, the 49ers got a winner in Garoppolo. It’s hard to imagine him not being a very good starter for years to come for San Francisco. The 49ers have won his first four starts, including a dominant win over a division champion Jaguars team last week. Meanwhile, it doesn’t seem like the Patriots got much for a quarterback as talented as Garoppolo. If the story is true that the Patriots wanted to do right by Garoppolo so they gave him to offensive-minded head coach Kyle Shanahan on a discount, that’s quite charitable. Still, we’ll look back on Garoppolo being traded for just a second-round pick and be amazed he was that cheap. WINNER: 49ers

Oct. 31, Miami Dolphins trade RB Jay Ajayi to Philadelphia Eagles for 2018 fourth-round pick

The Dolphins traded Ajayi when they were in the playoff race, but perhaps they knew a fade was inevitable. Miami ended up fine with Kenyan Drake (though it needs to be pointed out that the Dolphins gave Damien Williams more snaps until Williams got hurt and they were forced to feed Drake). The Eagles strangely haven’t used Ajayi much. He didn’t have more than 10 carries in a game until Dec. 10. Perhaps they were saving up Ajayi for the playoffs (he does have 41 carries the last three weeks), which actually would be pretty smart. WINNER: Dolphins, though Ajayi could flip that in the playoffs.

Oct. 31, Carolina Panthers trade WR Kelvin Benjamin to Buffalo Bills for 2018 third- and seventh-round picks

At the time, it seemed odd that the Panthers were dumping Benjamin. They haven’t missed the former first-round pick. They’re 6-1 without him. Meanwhile, Benjamin has had little impact in Buffalo though he had his best game for the Bills last week. This deal is a reminder that sometimes trades look odd in the moment happen for a reason. WINNER: Panthers

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Frank Schwab is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab

[yahoo-roto-arcade-blog]

Alvin Kamara carrying fantasy torch as other rookie running backs fade

This was supposed to be a banner year for rookie running backs, but you couldn’t have even gotten odds this summer on Alvin Kamara not only topping the class but entering Week 14 16th in fantasy points per game among all rookie running backs since the merger, according to Pro-Football-Reference.

That Kamara is doing this without even any PPR bonuses given that receiving was supposed to be central to his value is even more shocking. He was also the 67th pick in the actual 2017 draft and a fantasy afterthought in most our our fake-football drafts in August given the Saints had a three-headed committee. Kamara was the third man.

But even with Mark Ingram also paying great dividends for his owners, Kamara is shining with over 1,200 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns. That’s all on just 146 touches. Kamara is averaging 1.31 fantasy points per touch. That’s a number that’s almost certain to regress but the problem is we’ve been saying this for weeks. There’s little teams can do to stop the Saints running game, though, with Drew Brees is at the controls. That means that the normal solutions, putting eight men in the box, are basically off the table. The Saints also don’t deploy gimmicks like the motion and atypical formations featured earlier this season when another third round pick, Kansas City’s Kareem Hunt, similarly dominated fantasy leagues.

While Brees has disappointed his fantasy owners, he’s perfect for those who have a stake in the Saints running game as the 38-year-old is still clearly at the top of his game, sporting a 104.2 passer rating (third in the NFL) and 8.1 yards per pass attempt (fourth). The key to Kamara’s continued viability will be the distribution of Saints touchdowns, which are 52.8% rushing vs. the NFL average of 34.4%. But Kamara is also a leading receiver with four scores via the air. Only four other rookies since the merger have at least seven rushing TDs and four receiving TDs: David Johnson (2015), Matt Forte (2008), Edgerrin James (1999) and Roger Craig (1983).

In the non-PPR fantasy points per game stat, Kamara (15.7) is joined by Leonard Fournette (15.0, 23rd among all rookie running backs since the merger) and Hunt (13.6, 38th, stunning given how little he’s done of late).

Let’s look at the prospects of the latter two going forward into the fantasy playoffs.

Both Fournette and Hunt are really struggling of late. Fournette since spraining his ankle in Week 6 has just 226 yards on 77 carries or 2.9 per tote. He has a TD, too. Hunt hasn’t found the end zone once since Week 3 (he had six scores through the third game). Hunt also had a rookie record 100-plus scrimmage yards in his first seven career games. But since then, he’s gained just 213 yards on 69 carries (3.1) and has 82 COMBINED receiving yards in five games.

Let’s look at Hunt first, since he was forecasted by me to be a league-winning player and has cratered to the point where his owners are now wondering whether to even start him this week. Since his slump began, the Chiefs are averaging a second-lowest 57.6 plays per game, 288 total. Hunt’s 84 touches equates to a 29% market share. Previously, the Chiefs averaged 60.6 plays per game, 424 total, and Hunt had 149 touches for a 35% market share. This combination of factors has cost Hunt an expected 22 touches or 4.4 per game. And of course there is the efficiency decline, too.

Hunt’s touchdown woes are largely explained by the Chiefs’ bizarre inability to get goal-line plays, three-yards or closer. They have six plays on the goal-line all season. The NFL average is  16.4. And 27.5% of these plays are rushing TDs. Like with Kamara, this is a trend that’s seemingly too bizarre to continue, yet does. I’d always bet the full-season stats, though this is arguably unwise with rookies — a case can be made that in the absence of any prior data, that the league has simply caught up with a rookie. Bottom line: I would still start Hunt and project him as a RB1 going forward.

The problem with Fournette is that he’s been battling injury and it would seem unsuccessfully. Therefore, his struggles seem less random than Hunt’s. He’s also saddled with a worse offense than Hunt (26 offensive touchdowns for Jacksonville compared with 29 for the Chiefs). And Fournette’s durability was a knock on him as a prospect.

This week is a tough matchup against the Seahawks (7th lowest 3.8 yards allowed per carry), and then the 49ers and Texans are also fairly stout against the run (16th and 8th, respectively, per carry). Hunt’s schedule is much better, facing the 13th (Raiders), 31st (Chargers) and 25th (Dolphins) defenses in rushing efficiency.

It’s a controversial case to make, but I’d still put Hunt ahead of Fournette rest of season, though Fournette’s touch floor still makes him a clear starter for any team that owns him.

[yahoo-big-league-stew-blog]

Twelve MLB players who deserve your All-Star vote right now

The All-Star Game rosters are almost set. Voting is down to the wire, and has entered the home stretch. Major League Baseball released its final balloting update Monday, and some races can still be decided before things are finalized.

Fans have until 11:59 p.m. ET on Thursday to submit their votes on MLB.com. You are allowed to vote up to five times per day for the players you think are most deserving of an All-Star nod. Rosters will be revealed Sunday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

[Fantasy Football is open! Sign up now]

If you’re having trouble trying to figure out who deserves your vote in the final days, don’t worry. We here at The Stew have you covered. Our experts each picked three players who they think deserves your vote as voting comes to a close. They’ll each make a brief case for each player.

After that, it’s up to you get out and stuff the ballot box … er … server.

Joey Votto has once again been one of the best players in baseball. (AP Photo)

JOEY VOTTO, NL FIRST BASEMAN, CINCINNATI REDS Does anyone appreciate Joey Votto? The 33-year-old is off to yet another fantastic season, but his success isn’t reflected in the All-Star voting. Votto ranks fifth at first base in the NL. One of the players ahead of him, Freddie Freeman, is currently injured.

Votto gets no respect. By fWAR, he’s been the second-best first baseman in the NL this year, just behind Paul Goldschmidt. Votto is hitting an excellent .301/.412/.584, with 20 home runs, over 325 plate appearances. He somehow hasn’t made the All-Star team since 2013. We’re honestly not sure how. He finished third and seventh in MVP voting the past seasons and still couldn’t get voted in. He’s more than deserving. (Chris Cwik)

MATT KEMP, NL OUTFIELDER, ATLANTA BRAVES The Matt Kemp of the days of yore is making a return appearance. He’s batting .315/.356/.538 with 12 homers for the Braves, and he looks a lot like the Matt Kemp we used to know, albeit a few years older. If this were four or five years ago, he might be one of the top vote-getters. But Kemp is 32 and there are younger and more exciting players out there. But a player having a resurgence like this deserves more votes, even just for nostalgia’s sake. (Liz Roscher)

YONDER ALONSO, AL FIRST BASEMAN, OAKLAND ATHLETICS First base is deep with potential All-Stars in both leagues, so this isn’t a dig on any of the other worthwhile candidates, but dang, Yonder Alonso deserves some more love. Alonso worked hard in the offseason to change up his approach at the plate and now he’s the hitting .288/.383/.580 with 17 homers, finally having his breakout season at age 30. The two guys ahead of Alonso on the ballot are worthwhile too — Eric Hosmer and Justin Smoak — but Alonso’s breakout season is a great story that needs more attention. (Mike Oz)

Paul Goldschmidt is a big reason the D-Backs have exceeded expectations. (AP Photo)

PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT, NL FIRST BASEMAN, ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS It’s borderline criminal that Goldschmidt has 400k fewer votes than Anthony Rizzo. Goldy has outpaced Rizzo in every way this season, and he’s the cornerstone of a surprisingly resurgent Diamondbacks team. He leads his team in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, home runs, RBI, and stolen bases. And he leads Rizzo in all of those categories, too. It’s tough to beat that post-World Series glow, but Goldschmidt definitely deserves more than he’s getting. (Roscher)

JONATHAN SCHOOP, AL SECOND BASEMAN, BALTIMORE ORIOLES You know second base is deep in the American League when Schoop and Robinson Cano can’t even crack the top five in voting. In my opinion both still deserve more respect than that.

That’s especially true of Schoop, who came into the week leading the position in home runs. After hitting 25 dingers last season, he’s on pace for 30 this season. His batting average (.295), OBP (.352) and OPS (.897) are all well up this season too, indicating that he’s quickly and quietly developing into one of the better all-around hitters in the game. It would be shame if he’s not in Miami. (Mark Townsend)

MICHAEL CONFORTO, NL OUTFIELDER, NEW YORK METS It’s a bit of All-Star ridiculousness that Kyle Schwarber is eighth among NL outfielders and young New York Mets star Michael Conforto isn’t even among the top 15. But it’s not surprising. There’s actually a perfectly logical explanation: He’s not on the ballot. If you want to see Conforto in the All-Star game, you have to write him in. He’s deserving. He ranks as the fifth-best NL outfielder, according to fWAR, and has been far more effective than teammate Yoenis Cespedes, who has been injured this season but still ranks ninth among NL outfielders in voting. (Oz)

Cody Bellinger has provided one of the best stories of the season. (AP Photo)

CODY BELLINGER, NL OUTFIELDER, LOS ANGELES DODGERS Cody Bellinger and Michael Conforto should start a support group, because Bellinger suffers from the same All-Star ailment that Conforto does. Bellinger, one of the breakout rookies of 2017 and certainly deserving of an All-Star nod, isn’t on the ballot. You’d have to write him in at either first base or in the outfield. It makes sense somewhat, because Bellinger didn’t debut until April 25. Since then, though, he’s played 59 games (that’s more than shortstop leader Zack Cozart) and amassed 2.5 WAR, per Fangraphs, good enough for 12th in the entire NL. Bellinger, like Conforto, should make the team by either players’ or manager selection. Casting a vote for Bellinger might be wasting one — unless you want to do the right thing and honor one of the best players of the first half. (Oz)

ANTHONY RENDON, NL THIRD BASEMAN, WASHINGTON NATIONALS It won’t happen, but it absolutely should. Rendon has been better than both players ahead of him this season. Every part of Rendon’s slash line matches Kris Bryant’s numbers. And while Nolan Arenado has a slight lead in batting average and slugging percentage, Rendon’s on-base percentage is roughly 50 points higher. Bryant and Arenado are well-known superstars, and Bryant has a legion of Cubs fans behind him, so Rendon will likely have to make it as a bench bat. He deserves more this year. (Cwik)

ENDER INCIARTE, NL OUTFIELDER, BRAVES The forgotten man in the Shelby Miller/Dansby Swanson trade, Inciarte has done a little bit of everything for the Braves this season. His 99 hits and .320 average are among the league’s best. He provides some pop with six homers and speed with 10 steals, and he’s playing some terrific defense with his eight defensive runs scored ranking third among NL outfielders.

That Kyle Schwarber is No. 8 in the outfield voting and Inciarte can’t even crack the top 15 makes you wonder if anyone’s pay attention to anything at SunTrust Park other than the Beat The Freeze races. Inciarte should definitely be the Braves lone selection this year, but beyond that he deserves far more attention and respect than he’s receiving. (Townsend)

Aaron Altherr isn’t even listed on the All-Star ballot. (AP Photo)

AARON ALTHERR, NL OUTFIELDER, PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES It’s not hard to understand why Altherr isn’t getting many votes. He’s a write-in candidate, and the Phillies are mired in a putrid season that has them on pace for 110 losses. But Altherr is one of the lone offensive bright spots. He’s got the highest triple slash of any of their regular, non-injured player by FAR (.284/.355/.530). He’s got the most home runs (13). He’s literally the Phillies’ only position player who could even be momentarily considered as worthy of the All-Star Game. That doesn’t mean he’s actually worthy of the All-Star Game, but he at least deserves a little more love then he’s getting. (Roscher)

COREY DICKERSON, AL DESIGNATED HITTER, TAMPA BAY RAYS Look, I’m just as surprised as everyone else. After a tough first season in Tampa Bay, Dickerson proved he can mash outside of Colorado. The 28-year-old has been exceptional, hitting .330/.371/.587, with 17 home runs, over 322 plate appearances thus far. Nelson Cruz holds a slight lead in on-base percentage, but Dickerson has him beat in every other category. He may not be a big name or play for a big market team, but Dickerson needs to make the AL All-Star team. (Cwik)

MARK REYNOLDS, NL FIRST BASEMAN, COLORADO ROCKIES Unfortunately, Reynolds never had a chance after being left off the All-Star ballot completely. The veteran first baseman was signed to a minor-league deal this winter merely as insurance after the Rockies also signed Ian Desmond to a five-year, $70M deal. Then Desmond went down with an injury in spring training, opening the door for Reynolds to reemerge as a dangerous slugger.

Though he’s cooled off some in June, Reynolds is still hitting a few ticks under .300 and could have 20 homers by the All-Star break. Yes, I fully realize there are bigger names and bigger numbers elsewhere at this loaded position, but he’s a big reason the Rockies are playing their best baseball in nearly a decade. Reynolds deserved better than a write-in campaign can offer, but here’s hoping he’ll get serious All-Star consideration. (Townsend)

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What's wrong with the Patriots? Plus: MVP so far?

Welcome to the Wednesday War Room, where Yahoo Sports’ football minds kick around the topics of the day. Got an idea for a question you want us to kick around? Email us here. Today, we’re talking the problematic Patriots and the first quarter MVP. Onward! 

Question 1: What’s up with the New England Patriots? Normal early-season jitters, or foreshadowing of a train wreck?

Anthony Sulla-Heffinger: Does anyone actually believe the Patriots dynasty is about to fall? I certainly don’t. Sure, New England’s defense is struggling right now, but it was bound to have a drop off following last year’s stellar effort and it has played two games without Dont’a Hightower – arguably its most important player. I suspect things on the defensive side will balance out somewhere between 2016’s unit and 2017’s so far and everything will be fine because guess what: The offense has scored the second-most points in the league. Tom Brady is still Tom Brady and Bill Belichick is still the best coach in the NFL. Losses to a 4-0 Kansas City team and a 3-1 Carolina squad only look worse because everyone believed this team had a legitimate shot at 19-0.

Frank Schwab: At some point we have to acknowledge that the Patriots have some significant issues. That’s not to say they won’t get fixed to some extent. But we’re talking about not only the worst defense in the NFL, but a defense that’s on pace to allow the most yards in NFL history. Bill Belichick and coordinator Matt Patricia will adjust and they’ll improve. But will they go from this horrendous pace to a top-five defense? Doubtful. Consider this: The Patriots could shave 100 yards allowed per game off their average and they’d still rank 25th in the NFL. To become a mediocre defense would require an enormous leap. They can still win big this season but it’s not going to come easy.

Blake Schuster: There may very well be significant issues with the Patriots play right now. Their defense ranks last in the league in yards allowed per game (456.8) and second-to-last in points allowed per game (32), and yet I can’t help but laugh at the idea that this is any more than early-season kinks. That’s partially because New England has the best passing offense in the league, and partially because they still have Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and a slew of talent littered across the roster and coaching staff. Don’t insult the Patriot Way™. New England is still the team to beat until it’s been eliminated from the playoff race. Sorry, Bills.

Jordan Schultz: The Patriots’ main issue is a sluggish defense with gaping holes across each level. Perhaps most importantly, the pass rush has been nonexistent. Rob Ninkovich’s retirement has been a killer, as has the departure of defensive lineman Jabaal Sheard to Indy – not to mention trading the versatile duo of Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones. The result has been a measly 8 sacks (which is fifth worst in the NFL) and worse, a complete inability to create quarterback pressures. The secondary has arguably been even less effective. Cornerback Stephon Gilmore – who inked a five-year, $65M deal in the offseason – has looked confused and slow, repeatedly getting burned with foolish penalties and deep balls. Oh, and his counterpart, Malcolm Butler, has been so inept that he was benched to start the Saints game. As a whole, the defense ranks 31st in points allowed, 30th in big plays and last in both total yards per game (456.8) and yards per play (7.2) allowed.

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Zach Pereles The Patriots have problems on the defensive side of the ball. A lot of them. They’re giving up the highest opposing quarterback rating (116.5) in the league. The next two closest teams are the woeful Browns and the not-quite-as-woeful-but-still-woeful Dolphins. The Pats have just eight sacks this season, tied for 27th, and that’s despite facing the 11th-most pass attempts. They’re also allowing 5.06 yards per carry, second-worst in the NFL. If you looked at this portfolio without knowing the team name behind it, this would all spell train wreck. But it’s the Patriots, who I would call a train wreck if they were 1-3. But they’re 2-2 in a division that isn’t chock-full of contenders. They also have this guy named Tom Brady, who rescued them against the Texans and might have to continue to play hero throughout the rest of the season. Yes, the defense has been atrocious. There’s no two ways around that. But once Dont’a Hightower gets back closer to 100 percent, things will slowly improve. And even if the Patriots do end up with a bottom-10 defense, I’m still confident they cruise to the AFC East title.

Jay Busbee You’ll pardon me if I don’t either a) shed any tears over the Patriots’ current woes or b) assume for a second they won’t shake off their current malaise and return 10 times stronger later this season, allowing teams to get out to double-digit leads only to surge back and break their spirit. The Brady mystique will one day fade; the Belichick mysticism will one day dissipate. Today is not that day. They’ll roll into the playoffs 12-4, they’ll dust the Bills or the Texans in the first round, and they’ll be on their way to another title. It gives me no joy to type these words, but that doesn’t make them any less true.

Shalise Manza Young You may or may not know this, but I covered the Patriots for almost 10 years (I feel like a one-hit wonder singer who spends the rest of his/her life living off the royalties from that one song. Which also makes me wonder, where’s Toni Basil these days?). And in that time, I learned one thing above everything else: never count out Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Patriots. You just can’t. In 2006, when Belichick traded away Deion Branch rather than pay him, leaving Brady without his best receiver and a group of sub-par players in Branch’s place, Brady darn near got that offense to the Super Bowl. In 2011, Belichick let New England play with one of the single worst secondaries the NFL has ever seen, and they almost won the Super Bowl. In 2015, the Patriots were 2-2 after being blasted in Kansas City and won the Super Bowl. And then there’s earlier this year and 28-3. So yes, there are problems, but it is way too early for me to think the Patriots won’t right the ship.

Kareem Hunt is the early-season MVP for many. (AP)

Question 2: We’re one-fourth of the way through the season, and that means it’s time for way-too-early judgments. Who’s your MVP so far?

Kareem Hunt is the MVP right now. He’s leading the league in rushing yards by a mile and he’s the best player on the NFL’s only undefeated team. What more could you ask? The rookie sensation has been simply fantastic for a normally pedestrian Chiefs offense. Kansas City finished 20th in yards per game last year, let Jeremy Maclin go, stayed with Alex Smith and added Hunt. The result? Second in the league in yards per game through four games. Hunt’s been a revelation for this team, and his ability makes defending play-action impossible. Need more? He’s the best closer in the NFL. Hunt is averaging 93 yards per second half this season. That’s more than what 10 teams are averaging per game. He would lead the league in rushing yards if you only counted his second halves. That’s MVP-caliber stuff. –Pereles

Tom Brady! I mean why make things complicated? Brady leads the league in passing yardage and is tied with Aaron Rodgers with his 10 touchdowns. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m not sure the Julian Edelman injury has bothered him even a little bit. Plenty of others are deserving, including the unlikely Alex Smith, but Brady – at 40 years young – gets my vote at the quarter-pole. –Schultz

It feels so lazy to just look at the best team in the league and point to their quarterback as MVP, but how do you argue for anyone over the Chiefs’ Alex Smith right now? His league-leading 124.2 QBR among qualified starters just barely begins to explain how much he adds to a 4-0 Kansas City team. Sure he’s got stud playmakers in Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to work with, but his ability to get them the ball is only surpassed by his pocket presence and decision-making. Monday night’s performance against Washington was only the latest example. That’s to say nothing of the fact that Smith (89 yards on 18 carries) is right there with Cam Newton (90 yards on 22 carries) and Tyrod Taylor (118 yards on 31 carries) in rushing by a quarterback. Find me another 33-year-old QB who adds a new emphasis on mobility to his game. What Smith is doing right now is special. And it’s why Kansas City is sitting atop the NFL. –Schuster

I’m with Blake – it seems a little too easy to say Alex Smith because his team is the last in the league without a loss, but it’s not wrong to say it either. Smith has been sensational. He leads the league in passer rating (124.2), completion percentage (76.0!), has eight touchdowns and no interceptions, and has three game-winning drives in four wins. Heck, Captain Checkdown is even posting a yards per attempt mark of 8.8, which would be far and away the best of his career. Maybe it’s the fact that he could be a free agent after this year – his contract goes through 2018, but the team has an out after this season – and/or the presence of Patrick Mahomes; whatever it is, Smith is playing incredibly well for the 4-0 Chiefs. –Young

Let me start by acknowledging picking anyone but a quarterback for MVP is foolish – when J.J. Watt’s all-time great season couldn’t beat Aaron Rodgers for MVP in 2014, that sent the message that if you don’t play quarterback, don’t bother applying. That said, the most deserving MVP so far is Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs are 4-0 and having a big-time playmaker like Hunt has changed their overall outlook. And it’s not just splash plays either, in a tough game Monday night, Hunt just consistently got chunks of yards on Washington to sustain drives. He’s impressive. That said, he’s not a quarterback so he has no chance of actually winning. –Schwab

I’m fully aboard the Jared Goff bandwagon. While Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady are certainly strong candidates for MVP, the Rams’ top-ranked (!!!) offense simply isn’t the same if Goff doesn’t show he’s at the very least an adequate passer. Four weeks in, Goff hasn’t just shown he’s adequate, he’s played at a downright elite level. Goff ranks in the top 10 in every statistical passing category for the 3-1 Rams, and that incredible turnaround in his second year has helped Todd Gurley shake off his own awful sophomore season to rank second in rushing behind Kareem Hunt. I definitely won’t regret this paragraph in three months. –Sulla

Gotta be Colin Kaepernick, right? No player has cast a longer shadow over the NFL this season, and since we haven’t seen him actually play, we have to assume his skills are superior to any three-INT chump now on a roster, don’t we? (This is what’s known as “humor,” folks, no anthem screeds needed.) –Busbee

That’ll do it for this round! If you’ve got a topic you’d like us to kick around, hit us up right here. See you next week! ____ Jay Busbee is a writer for Yahoo Sports and the author of EARNHARDT NATION, on sale now at Amazon or wherever books are sold. Contact him at jay.busbee@yahoo.com or find him on Twitter or on Facebook.

More from Yahoo Sports: • How the Yankees bullpen pulled off a wild-card miracle • Mark Cuban considering a presidential run • Soccer star apologizes for ‘rowdy’ incident at Disney World • Coach kicks players off team for protest

Cleveland Browns quarterback DeShone Kizer loses control of the ball under pressure against the Bengals in Week 4. (AP)

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The Olympics, Jaromir Jagr and the Pittsburgh Penguins (Puck Daddy Countdown)

SOCHI, RUSSIA – FEBRUARY 15: T.J. Oshie #74 of the United States scores on a shootout against Sergei Bobrovski #72 of Russia during the Men’s Ice Hockey Preliminary Round Group A game on day eight of the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics at Bolshoy Ice Dome on February 15, 2014 in Sochi, Russia. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

(In which Ryan Lambert takes a look at some of the biggest issues and stories in the NHL, and counts them down.)

7. You maniacs!

Well the Olympics thing isn’t happening, and I obviously get why.

The NHL hates shutting down the schedule for three weeks, the risk of injury, the fact that they’re not going to make any money off it (especially the fact that they’re not going to make any money off it).

Also: The Olympics are morally kinda not-good and it’s all graft and all that kind of thing, so for the league to not want to participate on those grounds would also be fine.

And frankly, I’m sort of relieved I’m not going to have to wake up at 3 in the morning to watch a South Korea/Slovenia game or whatever.

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But still: The fact that everyone who’s not a team owner or NHL propagandist hates it really tells you who’s on the right side of the issue. Like I said, I get it, but if your take on this is, “Actually it’s insanely good that the NHL isn’t going this time,” that’s being a water-carrier.

Now, to the point Greg made about “Hate the IOC, not Bettman,” I get that too. The IOC is, again, morally bad. They decided to stop paying for the league to go, and the IIHF’s plan to help cover those costs wasn’t good. But here’s what you can do, and in fact should do: “Hate the IOC, AND Bettman.”

And frankly, don’t even really hate Bettman. Bettman is the guy who takes the bullets for the greedy owners so you don’t hate the guy who pockets the revenue from the tickets and jerseys and beer you buy. If you don’t like the Olympic decision, it’s probably because your owner, who is one of Bettman’s 31 bosses, told Bettman to be the bad guy who says the stuff you don’t like.

If you don’t like the Olympic decision, don’t buy tickets and jerseys and beer, and make sure ownership knows that’s why.

6. The Ovechkin takes

The other incredibly bad thing that’s worth hating about the Olympics decision is the fact that Alex Ovechkin and probably several other European players — and maybe even a few Americans and Canadians — are gonna go anyway. Maybe.

Because Ovechkin has been saying that he would be in PyeongChang regardless of the league’s decision literally for years, the only thing that’s changed is the league making it official, right? And yet, that hasn’t stopped plenty of meatheads from calling Ovechkin, who already has his owner’s blessing to leave for the Olympics, a selfish jerk who is abandoning his team and if he likes Russia so much why doesn’t he marry it but not, like, in a gay way because we all know how Russia is with homophobia?

And here’s the reason those takes are really stupid and we all know they’re stupid but we let people say them anyway: If Jonathan Toews or Sidney Crosby or Joe Pavelski or Phil Kessel said the same exact thing — “Screw the league! I’m going to represent my country!” — all those same the hockey media goons would burst a blood vessel in their eyes trying to well up reverential tears as they praised those guys. (Well, okay, not for Kessel. He’d still be selfish. Hmm, is Kessel the only North American who gets treated like a Euro? Worth considering.)

Gotta tell ya: I’m kinda glad Toews offered that mealy-mouthed “Well I’m disappointed but it’s a tough bounce and that’s how things go sometimes” defense — ya gotta hear both sides! — because it means he’s too much of a company man to go anyway. I wouldn’t be able to tolerate those takes.

5. The Senators

The Ottawa Senators are in an amazing slide that might just prevent them from making the playoffs. All that seemed so assured, what, two weeks ago?

They were four points up on the Tampa Bay Lightning ahead of Tuesday night’s pivotal matchups (Tampa/Boston and Detroit/Ottawa) with a game in hand, so things weren’t, like, dire or anything. But still, for things to be going so wrong now is the opposite of desirable; they had two wins since March 14 headed into Tuesday’s games. One of them was in a shootout.

Wonder what people are gonna blame here. Can’t be Erik Karlsson; he has 15 points in his last 14 games playing an average of almost 28 minutes a night.

Maybe Craig Anderson? He’s .909 since the start of March, including .897 with just one win in his last seven appearances.

Maybe the whole mediocre roster? They only have 21 goals in their last 11 games, which is bad.

Regardless of who’s to blame, it’s not-great times in Ottawa, to be sure.

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Plus there’s the whole lawsuit against the Senators that got filed last week, which alleges Eugene Melnyk used to berate team employees and call management incompetent. No way for me to know if it’s true, but if so: Sounds like Melnyk was finally right about something.

4. Jagr coming back

Hell yeah, this is what I want!

But one thing we’re not talking about much is that he’s old as hell and still really damn effective:

Yahoo

Moreover, he’s still a WOWY monster. Basically everyone on the Florida Panthers is better with him than without. It’s incredible. This dude is like 68 years old and he’s making everyone on his team a whole hell of a lot better. And he still scored 40-plus points this year.

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I hope Jagr does the Ichiro thing and says, “I’ll die before I retire.” He rules.

3. That wide-open Pacific

After Tuesday night’s games, four points separates first from third in the Pacific, but more to the point I don’t see any real disparity in quality between any of the four best teams in the division, all of whom are playoff locks at this point.

Hell, as I said last week, the Flames just might be the best team in the division at this point, and if you’re Edmonton or San Jose (even with the Sharks sliding right out of contention for the top spot), that’s not a card you want to flip over in Round 1.

Now that Washington all but has the Metro all but won, and Columbus is crashing down a little bit here, even that previously intriguing race is no longer all that interesting. Everyone else seems fairly locked-in. But there’s just about no combination of matchups in the Pacific that would end up being surprising.

So that’s cool I guess.

2. The damn Penguins, still doin’ it somehow

Even without getting into how long all these guys has been out (some of them for quite a while), let’s just run down the list of banged-up Penguins right now:

Evegeni Malkin. Carl Hagelin. Chris Kunitz. Kris Letang. Trevor Daley. Olli Maatta.

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That’s an entire second line, basically, and a half a D corps. They’re 10-4-3 since the beginning of March.

I know having Crosby and Kessel and a bunch of other good players helps, but like, come on. How’s this fair to anyone?

TORONTO, ON – MARCH 18: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates against the Chicago Blackhawks during an NHL game at the Air Canada Centre on March 18, 2017 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Blackhawks defeated the Maple Leafs 2-1 in overtime. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)

1. Auston Matthews

Loved watching beautiful American boy who is so nice Auston Matthews pull away from cowardly Finn who is mean Patrik Laine in the Calder race in, what, the last week?

The argument against Matthews, who has been having an inarguably better season process-wise (better underlying numbers, tougher minutes, worse linemates, similar scoreline, etc.) has been the fact that Laine had a concussion earlier this year and missed a few games, but still scored enough to be in the conversation. “If Laine finishes with more goals and points than Matthews in fewer games played…”

Since March 18, Matthews has 8-4-12 in nine games as the Leafs went 7-1-1 and locked themselves into a favorable playoff spot.

And what about Laine’s stretch run, with his team donezo? At a time many pundits would say, “Ah this is when games don’t mean anything and skill guys on bad teams rack up points,” the kid is only 2-1-3 over nine games.

Can’t knock Laine too much. He still scored 34 goals as a rookie, which almost no one does. But Matthews is closing in on 40 in much tougher situations. It’s almost like… and boy I hate to say this but, it’s almost like…. well maybe I shouldn’t, but…. it’s almost like putting up reliably good numbers all year is a better indicator of long-term success.

Nah, that can’t be it.

(Not ranked this week: Strong genius Shawn Thornton, who in no way sucks.

Some people might say he’s Too Good Of A Quote To Criticize For Being A Total Hypocrite Who Shouldn’t Be In The League Any More.)

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All statistics via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)

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Kevin Shattenkirk and the Oilers’ greatest need (Trending Topics)

When the Oilers traded Taylor Hall for defensive help, then drafted Jesse Puljujarvi and signed Milan Lucic, there was a feeling that Hall’s lost offense would be replaced by committee.

Well, it hasn’t really happened, has it? Adam Larsson has fewer points than Zack Kassian, Puljujarvi couldn’t get reliable ice time and got sent to the AHL (frankly it’s for the best), and Milan Lucic is having something of a nightmarish campaign.

Lucic currently sits at just 11 goals and 31 points despite spending a huge chunk of his 5-on-5 minutes with Connor McDavid and getting nearly three minutes of power play time per game (third-most among Edmonton forwards). This after a 20-goal season in Los Angeles a year ago and, of course, all that ice time with a kid who’s turned Patrick Maroon into a 30-goal threat.

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Maybe you chalk it up to bad luck. After all, Lucic is only shooting 9.5 percent right now, well below his career average of 14.3 percent. It’s the first time he’s had less than double-digit shooting success since the lockout-shortened season when he showed up out of shape and scored seven goals in 46 games. The only other time he wasn’t getting the puck in the net as effectively was his rookie year in 2007-08.

But the thing with the Lucic contract was that yeah, it was long and probably too much money, but he was projecting as a very productive player in getting ice time with McDavid. That hasn’t come to pass, and the reasons why are the reasons you could have guessed anyway. He’s a bigger, slower player who plays a heavy game and rarely misses time, on the wrong side of his prime. He was being asked to basically be a skilled enforcer for a child whose game involves cruising around the ice like a water bug, making dazzling plays at a thousand miles an hour. It was always likely to be some sort of a stylistic clash, but the assumption was that as long as Lucic could get to the net — like, say, Connor Sheary does for Sidney Crosby — then he was going to get his goals and earn his contract. That hasn’t happened.

The wonderful Jonathan Willis covers Lucic’s problems scoring in-depth over at Oilers Nation and that’s worth exploring, but I really think a lot of those issues arise from the fact that this marriage always had a potentially unhealthy pallor to it.

That inability to keep up is very obviously part of the problem. Lucic is shooting the puck from farther out than he has in four seasons. His average shot distance is nearly 31 feet, which is fairly high. It’s currently the fourth-longest in his career. And that’s while playing with McDavid, who generates chances near the net at an absurd rate. Conversely, Maroon’s average shot distance dropped four and a half feet from last season to this one (currently about 23 feet, 3 inches, last year almost 28). One cannot imagine his ascension to serving alongside McDavid is merely coincidental here. The difference between a 23-foot shot and a 31-foot shot may not sound like much, but those eight feet move you from roughly the second hashmark to almost the top of the faceoff circle.

The bigger problem was the idea that Lucic, being closer to 29 than 28 at this point, was on that seven-year contract. The Oilers were supposed to be able to milk the added value over the first two or maybe three years of the deal as Lucic approached his age-30 or age-31 seasons, so that when he inevitably started to break down, Peter Chiarelli could at least say, “Well, we got those productive seasons out of him on the front end.” They weren’t supposed to suffer like this. Not this early, anyway. As Lucic hit his mid-30s? Sure, you expect some decline. But not now, not before his 29th birthday.

It leaves Edmonton in a bit of an interesting position. Maroon, who’s extremely cheap at $1.5 million this year and next, seems to now be McDavid’s semi-permanent left wing, presumably right up until he isn’t. Jordan Eberle, who is likewise not producing that much despite plenty of minutes with McDavid (just 32 points), is the natural right wing there. That drops Lucic down to a second-line role, which is a potentially inefficient use of $6 million, but as long as he’s producing in slightly more sheltered minutes perhaps the Oilers don’t mind so much.

And let’s put it this way, if you’re going 1-2-3 down the middle with McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, you’re doing alright for yourself regardless of who’s on the wings. Throw those lines in a blender and you’re going to be competitive most nights with a former No. 1 pick (who himself is a solid 1b or great No. 2 in this league) is your third pivot over the boards.

There’s a perception that the Oilers are a one-line team. McDavid is in on a huge percentage of their goals, as you’d expect. That number, in all situations, is 81 of 158, which is about 51 percent. And for to really hammer home how special the kid is, he’s also only been on for 42 of Edmonton’s 144 against, just over 29 percent. The Oilers are therefore plus-39 with McDavid on, and minus-25 when he’s off. So you see where it comes from. But I don’t think that’s entirely fair.

The obvious issue of getting dramatically outscored comes largely because guys like Lucic and Eberle aren’t carrying the water you’d hope. But neither was Puljujarvi effective as a sort of Voltron-like replacement with Lucic, so he’s just getting minutes in the American league and apparently doing just fine down there (5-6-11 in 15 games as an 18-year-old ain’t bad at all). And Benoit Pouliot has been even worse this year with just 5-5-10 in 51 games. Nugent-Hopkins is only at 11-15-26, and he’s sixth on the team in scoring.

A huge part of the problem is that Larsson isn’t what the Oilers clearly thought he was. Is he a solid middle-pairing defenseman who can’t push the play? Yeah. Is that valuable? Yeah.

Is that what they must have thought they were paying for when they gave up an offensive dynamo in Taylor Hall? You’d really hope not.

It would be nice if Lucic and the other veteran forwards could score. It would be nice if Puljujarvi could be effective. But what the Oilers need more than anything is a defender who can get the puck up the ice consistently. They have a pretty good blue line overall, but if you don’t have a guy like that, you’re always going to struggle.

It doesn’t even have to be a really good, top-pairing puck-mover like Kevin Shattenkirk (whom Chiarelli should move heaven and earth to acquire), but a solid middle-pairing guy who can just help you get the puck out of your own zone on a consistent basis while McDavid is off the ice is going to help immensely.

That’s the thing: You can put McDavid on the ice with just about anyone (anyone who isn’t Milan Lucic, at least) and he’s going to move you up one or two zones every single time. Only a handful of players have been on the ice for more goals per 60. His per-60 relative goals number is fourth-highest in the league. The kid is amazing. Give him the Hart in June, no questions asked.

And in the meantime, Chiarelli can do his generational talent and the rest of the team a favor and give up as much as he needs to in an attempt to acquire someone who can just lug the puck. There are plenty of them out there and a lot of them are undervalued. Doesn’t have to be a guy who fits the Larsson profile of young, somewhat cheap, and under contract for years to come.

Obtaining a stopgap in their mid- or late 20s until you can develop someone as good or better than him goes a long way for the club. And thanks to the Lucic contract, and the age of some older vets on the roster (Pouliot and Sekera are both ostensibly useful players on the wrong side of 30), the time for the Oilers to get meaningfully competitive is right now. McDavid is about to be the most expensive player in the league and some of the other younger players on the roster are likewise going to see their entry-level or bridge deals expire within a few years.

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Then it becomes harder to keep everyone. How many teams have had to be ripped down because of cap considerations like this, with or without championships? Half the Oilers roster is under the age of 25, and around 26 is when guys start getting expensive.

It’s not that it’s win-now for the Oilers. But it’s sure as hell win-soon. And because this roster really doesn’t have a lot of problems when everything is going right (i.e. shooting percentages for higher-end players normalize), Chiarelli’s job is easy. Get a No. 2 or 3 puck-mover. Give up whatever you need to give up to make it happen, draft picks, prospects, whatever combination required.

The reported asking price for Shattenkirk is a first and a high-end prospect. And if that’s the only thing standing between this team and actual, unadulterated dominance of an admittedly weak division, then I don’t see what the problem is.

You go out and you get a player like that, then you get to sit back watch this team cruise through the regular season and a few playoff rounds before the hard decisions come.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

All stats via Corsica unless otherwise stated.

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