#$EA

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Tuesday: Ally, Electronic Arts, F5, GE and Interactive Brokers

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Ally Financial, Ticker: $ALLY

Ally Financial, $ALLY, rose to a top in January and then had a minor pullback. It reversed and is now making new highs as it breaks consolidation. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone and the MACD is flat but positive. Look for continuation to participate…..

Electronic Arts, Ticker: $EA

Electronic Arts, $EA, topped in August and then fell back through the 200 day SMA before finding support. It reversed in November and is now back at the highs. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD about to cross up. Look for a new high to participate…..

F5 Networks, Ticker: $FFIV

F5 Networks, $FFIV, gapped up in November and ran and then gapped up again in January to move to a top later that month. It pulled back from there to the 20 day SMA and reversed again. It is back at the prior high with the RSI rising and bullish and the MACD crossing up. Look for continuation to participate…..

General Electric, Ticker: $GE

General Electric, $GE, started rising in October and ran to a December top. After a minor pullback it moved up into a Diamond and is looking to break higher as the week starts. The RSI is rising and bullish with the MACD lifting. look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Interactive Brokers, Ticker: $IBKR

Interactive Brokers, $IBKR, has rolled out of the bottom it found in March and is now running higher. The stock broke to a higher high and fell back, retesting the breakout, before reversing Friday. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD moving higher and positive. Look for a push to new highs to participate…..

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using this Get Premium link.  

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week.  These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which heading into the President’s Day weekend saw equity markets continuing to look very strong.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its pullback while Crude Oil moves to the upside. The US Dollar Index may be pausing in the downtrend while US Treasuries continue their trend lower. The Shanghai Composite looks to resume its uptrend after the Lunar New Year holiday while Emerging Markets continues to march to new all-time highs.

The Volatility Index looks to remain very low and drifting toward a pandemic gap fill, making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts continue to look strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY are moving back higher again while the IWM pauses to catch its breath over support. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

[yahooben]

Spring games guide 2018: 12 reasons to stay indoors this season

Spring 2018 is looking like it could one heck of season for gamers.

Ah, spring! The bees are buzzing, the birds are singing, the flowers are blooming and the gamers are…still pretty much staring at their screens. Can you blame us? The weather might be improving, but so are the games.

Spring is a time of rebirth, and for the games industry, a great time to launch a huge product or three. Here are the coolest games coming out over the next three months. Note: Only games released between March 20 and June 20 are included. You know, spring!

Editor’s pick:

“God of War” (April 20 | PS4)

‘God of War’ is shaping up to be an early contender for Game of the Year.

Angry god-killer Kratos shows a softer side in this heavily-anticipated reimagining of Sony’s flagship franchise. Now a father, Kratos must mentor his young son and manage his legendary temper as the two explore a strange Scandinavian world. “God of War” is a total refresh, offering a more intimate camera, brutal new weapons, and an emotionally-charged story of parenthood and acceptance. Early looks (including one by Yahoo’s own Daniel Howley) have been magnificent. If you own a PS4, go ahead and clear your calendar on April 20.

“Sea of Thieves” (March 20 | Xbox One, PC)

It’s a pirates life for everyone in ‘Sea of Thieves.’

Every day is Talk Like a Pirate Day in this swashbuckling online game from Microsoft and developer Rare. “Sea of Thieves” lets you and a crew of your best mateys pillage and plunder across a massive world. Teamwork is tantamount; virtual buccaneers need to work together to steer galleons, take down skeleton armies and dig up treasure chests while fighting off other pirates. Though some critics consider its waters to be a bit too shallow, “Sea of Thieves’” remarkable graphics and co-operative fun make it worth a look.

“A Way Out” (March 23 | PS4, Xbox One, PC)

‘A Way Out’ is a co-op game in every sense of the term, as you’ll need a trusting partner to complete this title.

You’ll need a friend to truly appreciate this co-operative jailbreak from the creator of the critically-acclaimed fairy tale “Brothers: A Tale of Two Sons.” Considerably darker, “A Way Out” lets two players help inmates Leo and Vincent bust out of the hoosegow and survive car chases, shootouts and other unpleasantries as they search for freedom. Playable side by side or online, “A Way Out” has been lauded by critics for its smart storytelling and excellent look.

“Ni No Kuni II: Revenant Kingdom” (March 23 | PS4, PC)

‘Ni No Kuni’ is a deep role-playing game that is stunning to behold.

Fans of beloved filmmaker Hayao Miyazaki flipped over the first “Ni No Kuni,” and will likely flip over the sequel. Stunning graphics and a sweeping score set the stage for another deep role-playing game, this time featuring a new mechanic that lets players build their own kingdom from scratch. As adorable as it is addictive, “Ni No Kuni II” offers a much-needed burst of color to your spring gaming.

“Far Cry 5” (March 27 | PS4, Xbox One, PC)

This very good boy will help you take down the doomsday cult at the center of ‘Far Cry 5.’

The latest version of Ubisoft’s open-world shooter is the first to take place on U.S. soil. Set in Montana, it spins a fictitious yarn about a militia-like cult and the sheriff’s deputy (that’s you) tasked to bring the lunatics down. Mostly, that means getting up to the kind of open-world hijinks that has defined “Far Cry”: stealing a car, running over a bad guy, crashing into a tree, taming a bear and rampaging through an enemy outpost with your new bear buddy. Sign us up!

“MLB The Show 18” (March 27 | PS4)

How do you improve on the best MLB game out there? A new stance editor and improved franchise mode, that’s how.

Sony’s “MLB: The Show” franchise is the Cal Ripken Jr. of sports games: consistently great and constantly improving. In addition to improved graphics and audio, this year’s model includes a new batting stance editor and an overhauled Franchise mode interface. Score another one for Sony.  

“Nintendo Labo” (April 20 | Switch)

Yes, that’s a Nintendo Switch wrapped in cardboard. And yes, it’s fun.

It happens to every parent: you buy your kid a sweet toy and they wind up playing with the box it came in. Nintendo’s (NTODY) taking that love of cardboard a step further with “Nintendo Labo,” cardboard construction kits that transform your Switch into a DIY toy. Players fold cardboard cutouts into fishing rods, pianos and more, which interact with the Switch via the system’s array of motion controls and infrared sensors. Clever, creative and shockingly fun, “Labo” looks like another quirky hit from the current king of the consoles.

“Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire” (May 8 | PC)

Looking for an incredibly deep role-playing game? ‘Pillars of Eternity II’ has what you want.

Released in 2015, the original “Pillars of Eternity” was a love letter to classic isometric role-playing games like “Baldur’s Gate” and “Icewind Dale.” It was also one of the highest-rated games of the year. The sequel hopes to add to this legacy by expanding the size and scope of an already huge game. In addition to ridiculously deep combat and lore, “Deadfire” introduces a pirate theme, letting players captain a ship as they sail across a fantasy world chasing down a rogue god. If painstakingly-crafted party-based role-playing is your bread and butter, be prepared for a serious feast.

“State of Decay 2” (May 18 | Xbox One, PC)

‘State of Decay 2’ will see you and three survivors take on zombies. But you’ll need to use your brains if you’re going to keep them safe.

Looking for a little more brains in your zombie game? “State of Decay 2” has plenty. The sequel to the under-appreciated 2013 original challenges players to survive an undead outbreak. That means scavenging items and weapons, fortifying buildings, and even dealing with the mental and emotional hangups of your band of survivors. With a four-player co-op mode built-in, that might mean dealing with the hangups of your real-life friends, too.

“Detroit: Become Human” (May 25 | PS4)

‘Detroit: Become Human’ is bound to look beautiful.

Solve murders, ignite a rebellion and contemplate the nature of your existence as a trio of androids in this mysterious thriller. Penned by game auteur David Cage (“Heavy Rain,” “Beyond: Two Souls”), “Detroit” lets players shape their story through branching dialogue trees and difficult moral choices. Like developer Quantic Dream’s past work, it’s a lock to look amazing. We’ll find out if the gameplay and story are equally impressive when it launches in May.

“Dark Souls Remastered” (May 25 | PS4, Xbox One, Switch, PC)

‘Dark Souls Remastered’ is coming to the Nintendo Switch. But be careful when playing in mobile mode, because throwing your controller means throwing the entire console.

The video game industry loves remastering things, and in this case, we’re loving it, too. Released in 2011, the extremely challenging “Dark Souls” was an immediate hit, nabbing several Game of the Year awards and ushering in the era of “hard games.” The remaster keeps its core intact but gives it a much-needed graphical boost. While it’s bound to look best on the PC and the burlier consoles, the Switch version is particularly exciting, marking the first “Dark Souls” appearance on a Nintendo system.

“Jurassic World Evolution” (June 12 | PS4, Xbox One, PC)

‘Jurassic World Evolution’ will let you build your own dino park. Just don’t let the power go down.

If we’ve learned anything from the “Jurassic Park” films, it’s that a theme park filled with dinosaurs is a categorically terrible idea. Nevertheless, gamers can try to calm the chaos by managing their very own dino park in this upcoming simulation. Led by the soothing voice of Dr. Ian Malcolm (played by Jeff Goldblum), players will build attractions, manage visitors and even create their own friendly dinosaurs, which will undoubtedly go exactly as planned and not result in an aggressive 60-foot tall eating machine with the brain of a chess grandmaster.

More games news:

‘Far Cry 5’ review: Destruction and doomsday in America

‘God of War’ could be 2018’s first must-have game

‘Kirby Star Allies’ review: How to make friends and eat them

Despite Trump’s meeting, video games and violence still don’t add up

Email Daniel Howley at dhowley@yahoo-inc.com; follow him on Twitter at @DanielHowley.

Follow Yahoo Finance on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and LinkedIn

[seathegreat]

($ea)

[estimize]

Three Big Names to Keep an Eye On

Intel Corporation (INTC):

Information Technology - Semiconductors | Reports July 27th, AMC.

The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $.69, one cent higher than the Wall Street consensus and an increase of 15% YoY. Currently, the Estimize community is looking for sales of $14.46B, which is roughly inline with the Street ($14.41B). Check out the Estimize website to see our prediction for Gross Margins.  

The last four quarters Intel posted higher than expected EPS, however this quarter may prove to be different. Investors will be all ears to see how Intel gauges and looks to respond to the competitive landscape, specifically AMD which put up impressive top and bottom-line beats yesterday. Intel prides themselves on their chip manufacturing segment and their ability to push out new technology. However, their new 10-nanometer technology has been lacking of late. Initially the 10nm technology was slated to release in 2015, but now the release date seems to be end of 2017 or beginning of 2018.

Electronic Arts Inc. (EA):

Information Technology - Software | Reports July 27th, AMC.

The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $.32, four cents higher than the Wall Street consensus, and an astounding increase of 300% YoY. Currently, the Estimize community is looking at revenue of $778.2M, which is slightly more optimistic than the Street ($765.86M). Check out the Estimize website to see our prediction for Digital Net Sales.  

The videogame maker reports Q1 earnings tomorrow, and investors are not expecting much due to the lack of popularity behind their new game, Andromeda. Other than Mass Effect: Andromeda their were no other major games released. When Mass Effect was being released EA expected 3 million copies to be sold however only about 1 million were sold. However, in the UK it held the top spot for several weeks and sits at the 7th best selling game in 2017. All of these facts may not seem terrible, however EA and investors expected more. Overall, EA always has older games which still are producing revenue to fall back on.

Verizon Communications (VZ):

Telecommunication Services - Diversified Telecommunications | Reports July 27th, BMO.

The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $.96, which is on the dot for what Wall Street is predicting and an increase of 2% YoY. Currently, the Estimize community is looking for sales of $29.9B which is roughly in line with the street.

The telecommunications market has been heating up as competitors look to take market share away from Verizon. Verizon recently introduced the unlimited data plan which according to FactSet will add 86,100 subscribers this quarter, however this is after they lost 300,000 in Q1. Investors will be interested to see Q2 subscriber numbers and how they are looking to diversify their revenue stream since wireless accounts for about 70%. Verizon recently bought Yahoo and their were short lived rumors of Disney being next. Verizon currently sits at $44.30 a share with a price target of $49.20.

[danielphowley]

Review: Beautiful Battlefield 1 gives the War to End All Wars its due respect

“Battlefield 1” offers an engrossing campaign and fantastic multiplayer.

Word War I was the “War to End All Wars.” But as EA’s “Battlefield 1” points out in its opening scenes, the conflict that spanned continents and killed millions ended nothing.

Available today for PS4, Xbox One and PC, “Battlefield 1” is a refreshing take on the military first-person shooter genre. The game puts you in the shoes of soldiers who, contrary to their protein shake-guzzling, testosterone-packed bro-y counterparts in other franchises, are genuinely terrified to be fighting in a war. In other words, they act like normal people.

And then there’s the game’s multiplayer, where up to 64 players fight across fully destructible maps complete with colossal zeppelins and pitched battles for inches of dirt.

“Battlefield isn’t perfect though. There are still a handful of flaws. So should you look past them and sign up?

Life during wartime

Full disclosure: I’ve been a fan of the “Battlefield” franchise for some time. In fact, I’ve played nearly every entry in the series since “Battlefield 1942” first debuted in 2002, and like anyone who’s ever played a ”Battlefield” game, the one thing that kept getting me to sign up for another tour of duty was the series’ multiplayer.

That’s because solo campaigns always took a backseat. “1942” didn’t even have one when it launched and when full-on campaigns finally arrived around with “Battlefield: Bad Company,” they felt like cheap “Call of Duty” knock-offs. They just didn’t have that “Battlefield” feel.

“Battlefield 1,” however, is the first game in the series to create a genuinely emotional narrative. This isn’t a linear experience; instead of playing as a one-man army tearing through enemy lines, you play as multiple soldiers across the war’s various fronts ranging from France to the Middle East.

Trench warfare plays a huge part in “Battlefield 1”

The game’s opening minutes help set the stage for the kind of experience developer DICE was going for with the campaign. Instead of being dropped into an adrenaline packed action sequence, you simply die.

Get used to that, because you play as a handful of soldiers who — spoiler alert — don’t survive. With each death, the screen simply goes black except for the name of your soldier and the date of birth and death. It’s a powerful treatment; there was no black and white, good vs. evil to this conflict, no Nazis to use as faceless villains. These were human beings that fought and died, and the game does a marvelous job capturing the drama.

The game’s success in exploring the existential dread that accompanies being a soldier trapped in such a massive conflict is constantly on display throughout the campaign. Whether you’re a tank driver, pilot, or riding through the desert on horseback, you feel appropriately like a small cog in the war machine.

“Battlefield 1” shows the human cost of war.

The variety really brings it together. I love a good narrative arc, but being able to bounce between theaters of the war at my leisure made me less anxious to plow through Battlefield’s campaign and instead enjoy it for what it is.

It isn’t perfect, though. It’s pretty short as far as single player shooters go. You’ll easily roll through the entire story in a few play sessions. But the biggest issue is the game’s AI. In one of the first missions, you take on the role of a tank driver searching for spark plugs to repair his tank’s engine. Naturally, you have to sneak into a German-occupied town to get the spark plugs, because “Battlefield’s” God is a vengeful one who hates all of his children equally.

You’re essentially on your own at this point, so you have to play the mission stealthily. And while the stealth mechanics are fine, the way the enemy reacts to your presence is shoddy. I threw a lure to pull a German soldier off of his patrol and while he heard the sound of the lure hit the ground, he didn’t stray from his route to investigate. At times, the AI is so hopeless soldiers just stand there waiting for you to take pot shots at them.

The game largely masks these issues, though, through the sheer number of enemy combatants and how dangerously powerful their weapons feel. But it ruins the sense of immersion when the enemy soldier running you down won’t cross a creek to chase you.

Beauty in the face of war

Luckily, “Battlefield” makes up for its AI issues with its beauty. Powered by DICE’s Frostbite 2 graphics engine, which powered last year’s gorgeous “Star Wars: Battlefront,” “Battlefield 1” is a graphical marvel.

I played the game on both PC and PS4, and while the PC version is easily the more impressive option if you’ve got the graphics cranked up, the console version is packed with more than enough eye candy to leave you staring at your screen in awe. From bucolic farms and thick forests to crowded cities and desert outposts, the stages in “Battlefield 1” are simply amazing.

The destruction and beauty of “Battlefield 1”.

And like “Battlefront,” “Battlefield’s environments never feel empty. Long-distance dogfights darken the sky, while massive fires rage on the horizon and waves of soldiers pour over fields. The set pieces are enormous. “Battlefield 1 ” is an absolute beauty.

“Battlefield 1’s” scale is enormous

I wouldn’t be a “Battlefield” without fully destructible environments. This time around, though, DICE has dialed back the cartoonish destruction of previous entries for more realistic effects. Fire a tank shell at a windmill, for example, and debris will go flying, with bricks and wood planks tumbling to the ground as the smoke clears. It makes the whole experience feel that much more intense; no wall is safe from “Battlefield 1’s” impressive destruction.

Joining the fight

“Battlefield 1’s” campaign serves a secondary purpose beyond telling a handful of stories: it helps you learn to play the multiplayer game. Sure, you can skip the campaign entirely and dive right into an online battle against 63 other players, but digging into the single-player game teaches you about specific weapons or tactics that translate to well to multiplayer matches.

And let’s face it, multiplayer is the reason you’re interested in “Battlefield” in the first place.

“Battlefield 1’s” multiplayer is among the best.

So you’ll be happy to hear that “Battlefield 1’s” multiplayer experience is top-notch. I’ve played across both the PC and PS4 and haven’t noticed any server issues beyond the rare instance of slowdown that’s happens with any online game.

The usual class system found in other “Battlefield” games is back, but with a slight twist. There’s the Assault class, which is both anti-personnel and anti-vehicle; the Medic, which is, well, a medic; the Support class, which offers ammo and can repair damaged vehicles; and then the Sniper, for long-range damage.

The change is a bit jarring at first. In previous versions of “Battlefield,” Engineers fixed friendly vehicles and destroyed enemy ones. Support players threw down extra ammo, and the Assault class was all about running and gunning. It’s actually more interesting now that you’re forced to choose between either fixing your own team’s vehicles or destroying your foes’.

“Battlefield 1” is an online free-for-all.

To be honest, though, newcomers to the series won’t even notice the class changes. What’s more, the classes now feel far more well balanced (with the exception of the Sniper, which can still hit you from what feels like the other side of the planet.)

It’s the multiplayer game that truly shows off the size and scale of “Battlefield 1.” Maps are absolutely massive, filled with plenty of structure to enter or blow up. The fighting always feels frenetic, and every move you make could help turn the tide of the battle.

“Battlefield 1” includes a handful of multiplayer game modes, from standards like Capture the Flag and Team Deathmatch to newcomers like War Pigeons and Operations. War Pigeons sees teams attempting to capture messenger pigeons at the start of the match, which they must then carry to a safe spot to help call in artillery strikes against the opposing team. Operations, meanwhile, features massive frontline battles in which attacking teams must capture various control points to push deeper into enemy territories. These matches are easily the longest in the game and can last up to an hour depending on how well your team performs.

Part of what makes “Battlefield” unique in the military shooter genre is its inclusion of vehicles, and they’re well accounted for in “Battlefield 1.” You’ll drive an assortment of tanks, jeep, and planes, and while the vehicles are powerful, they never feel unstoppable. A few well-placed grenades or artillery rounds and that’s it. Some maps also allow you to call in support vehicles including armored trains and zeppelins. The first time you see the latter cross the skies above a map is completely ridiculous.

If you played the “Battlefield 1” beta, though, you’ve probably got one question: Are horses still immortal murder machines? Unfortunately, they kind of are. You can pour lead into a stallion and it won’t come down until its body is 95% bullets. One particularly durable pony shrugged off an artillery round I fired at it, giving its rider the opportunity to cut me down with his saber.

Pictured: an unstoppable killing machine. And a solider.

“Battlefield” also includes the ability to purchase new weapons skins and upgrades via war bonds, which you receive by leveling up through multiplayer games. But to purchase those weapons in the first place, you have to reach a certain in-game level. It’s a bit confusing and I wish DICE had done more to explain how these systems work in the multiplayer introduction.

A world at war

“Battlefield 1” is an impressive game that manages to blend a powerful single-player campaign with fantastic multiplayer. It’s a bit unfortunate that the thematic elements of the single-player game don’t carry over the multiplayer experience, but delivering an emotional online game with a potent narrative while some dude named 420B0NGZ4LIFE tries to blow your head off is nearly impossible to begin with.

DICE has done a praiseworthy job giving The War to End All Wars and the soldiers who bravely fought in it the kind of respect they deserve, while also delivering an amazing multiplayer game. If you’re a fan of shooters, or games in general, you’ll want to enlist.

What’s Hot: Refreshingly powerful narratives; gorgeous graphics; impressive scale and destructibility; incredibly addicting multiplayer

What’s Not: Shoddy AI; campaign clashes with free-for-all multiplayer, IMMORTAL HORSES!

Platforms reviewed: PC and PS4

More from Dan:

Google Pixel XL Review: An excellent phone with one flaw

The one obvious problem with Apple’s new self-driving car plan

The big winner in the wake of Samsung’s Note7 disaster

Oculus’ new Touch controls are intriguing, but I’m still holding out

The best US mobile data plans side by side

Email Daniel at dhowley@yahoo-inc.com; follow him on Twitter at @DanielHowley.

[yahoofinancestaff-blog]

Time Warner invests in Hulu, Tesla gears up for results, Fitbit soars on strong sales

Here are some of the stocks the Yahoo Finance team will be watching for you today.

Time Warner (TWX) shares were sharply higher in early trading. The media giant is buying a 10% stake in Hulu and signed an agreement for all of its Turner networks to be carried on Hulu’s live-streaming services. The company also announced second quarter earnings that beat expectations. However, revenue fell short of forecasts due to slow growth in its HBO and Warner Brothers businesses.

Tesla (TSLA) results are on tap after the market close. Analysts expect sales to be over $1.6 billion for the quarter. Tesla has dealt with a lot of bad news recently, including how the autopilot feature played a role in one fatal crash.

Fitbit (FIT) shares soared in early trading. The maker of fitness-tracking wristbands delivered better than expected earnings and revenue for the second quarter. Sales soared nearly 47% from a year ago. Profit fell as operating expenses more than doubled with new investment on research and development of new products and marketing.

Etsy (ETSY) got a nice pop this morning. The online crafts marketplace raised its outlook for the year after revenue topped estimates for the second quarter. Sales jumped 39% thanks to strong growth in seller services and users.

Electronic Arts (EA), the video game publisher behind titles including “FIFA” and “Star Wars Battlefront,” swung to a profit last quarter. Revenue also beat estimates as players downloaded more digital versions of its games. However, the company’s revenue forecast for the current quarter was a tad less than what analysts’ were expecting.

[speedycalls]

$EA 65 Puts BUYING Activity expiring on 19th Jan, Vol 1500

[jstephencastellano]

Ascendere Model Portfolio Returns and Targets -- September 4, 2015

Below are short-term price targets and the latest theoretical returns for stocks in the long and short theoretical portfolios covered in our August 31, 2015 Ascendere Associates Model Portfolio Update.

These are intra-month stock price targets. The model assumes an investor sells a stock at the close the day after a price target has been reached. These price targets slightly fluctuate each day, in line with the stock’s volatility.

The strategy behind this theoretical model portfolio is to hold a basket of stocks and rebalance each month with a relatively better idea. When a relatively better idea comes along, that is your sell signal (or buy to cover signal).

While these baskets rebalance every month, many stocks in this model portfolio can generate some solid long-term investment ideas. One of our favorite ideas right now is NuVasive, Inc. (NASDAQ:NUVA). Another long favorite is Integrated Device Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:IDTI).

There are two basic versions of the long/short model portfolio. The Core Model Portfolio is always assumed to be fully invested regardless the market environment, except when individual stock price targets are reached. The Opportunistic Model Portfolio will move to cash positions during periods of extreme market volatility.

Currently the Opportunistic Long Model is assumed to be in cash through just prior to the close of September 21, and will be assumed to stay at a 70% stock and 30% cash allocation through just prior to the close on October 16.

Additional theoretical strategies that we maintain at StockViews and Marketocracy are largely based on the models here.

Higher resolution photos are available here.

Opinions and price targets are subject to change without notice. There are limitations inherent in our theoretical model results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing client money.

[ophirgottlieb]

Glu Mobile is Different, Compelling and Growing

Fundamentals     

##Symbol##GLUU While my favorite gaming company is Electronic Arts (EA), Glu Mobile is a gaming company and is different than almost all others in one very unique way; more on that in a sec. The company publishes and markets its portfolio of games for mobile users (smartphones and tablets). The stock has been punished of late, down over 30% in the last three-months and its bearish momentum shows horrific technicals right now. In 2014 there were whispers that the company was indeed a one-hit wonder with its "Kim Kardashian: Hollywood" game but the company completed acquisitions of a number of firms namely, Pick 6 Studios, Play First Inc., and Cie Games Inc. GLUU competes with Zynga (ZNGA), Electronic Arts (EA) and King Digital Entertainment (KING) in a crowded gaming segment. As of right now, it's fair to call GLUU a "middle of the road" performer with extraordinary growth potential. Here are the head-to-head comparisons of GLUU versus Zynga (ZNGA) and GLUU vs King Digitial (KING). Click Here to Interact Head-to-Head Click Here to Interact Head-to-Head ➜ GLUU generates $0.91 in revenue for every $1 in expense, which is poor and considerably below the sector average of $1.07. ➜ GLUU generates $360,000 in revenue per employee which is above the sector average of $344,000. While the company's fundamentals show some strength in most areas, they also show two particular weaknesses that we will address. In the latest earnings release on August 6th, 2015, the company beat the consensus with $57 in revenue versus estimates of $51 million. EPS also beat, with a reported $0.01 of non GAAP income versus estimates of a $0.04 loss. While that sounds good, the stock collapsed off of the report falling from $5.67 to $4.50 the day after earnings for a 20% drop. The disastrous stock reaction reflected the company's forecasts of $58 in revenue for the next quarter and EPS to be between breakeven and a $0.02 loss, versus estimates of $73 million and EPS of positive $0.04 (EBITDA was also a huge miss in terms of the forecast). The revenue downgrade was substantial and continues to point to the risk of lack of transparency for gaming companies which rely on a small portfolio of assets for growth. I remind all readers that a report just like this one is available for any company for free on CMLviz.com. No e-mail. No login. Free. Forever. Period. GLUU's revenue (TTM) has risen for more than five consecutive quarters. One year ago the firm reported $142 million in revenue. For the most recent year it reported $263 million (a 85.3% one-year rise). Two-years ago the firm reported annual revenue of $101 million (up 159.5%). So growth, even though forecasts were taken down, is enormous. That's just a fact.

Technicals   |   Support: 4.46   |   Resistance: 6.1   

Swing Death Cross Alert: The short-term 10 day MA is now below the 50 day MA. GLUU has a one bull (lowest rated) technical rating because it's trading below the 10-day (short-term), 50-day (medium-term) and 200-day (long-term) moving averages. Let's look at the core elements that drive the company's fundamental rating.

Fundamentals Rating Summary

METRIC CURRENT 1YR AGO 2YR AGO DIRECTION Revenue (TTM US$ Millions) 263 142 101 Operating Margin (QTR) 0.91 1.00 0.82 FALLING Net Income (TTM US$ Millions) 7 -15 -19 RISING Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM US$ Millions) 28 3 -4 RISING Research and Development (US$ Millions) 18 14 11 Research and Development Expense/Revenue 0.326 0.352 0.468 FALLING

Stock Returns and Chart

GLUU is down -32.3% over the last three months and down -8.5% over the last six months. The stock has returned -15.1% over the last year. Before we dig into the fundamental trends that drive the rating, let's look at a two-year stock chart with regression channel and 10-day momentum (on the bottom). Click here to interact with this stock chart Now let's examine the visualizations of the critical financial measures.

METRIC CURRENT 1YR AGO 2YR AGO DIRECTION Revenue (TTM US$ Millions) 263142101

This is the "good news" for GLUU, and it's not trivial. Revenue (TTM) is trending higher meaning that it has increased for at least five consecutive quarters (in this case it's seven consecutive quarters). When a company grows revenue 85% year-over-year, we must recognize the added importance of top-line growth, perhaps even above and beyond earnings, free cash flow and margins. Regardless of the low(ish) 3 fundamental (star) rating, if revenues continue to explode, everything could follow suit for GLUU. I note that GLUU has broken an all-time revenue high (TTM) for seven consecutive quarters and now stands at over $260 million in the trailing-twelve-months. What do all these numbers mean? GLUU's fundamental rating benefited these results: 1. The one-year change was positive. 2. The one-year change was greater than +20% (an extra boost to the rating). 3. The two-year change was positive. Finally, the up trend (consecutive quarters) in revenue benefited the fundamental (star) rating. Let's look at Revenue (TTM US$ Millions) in the chart below. Note that the green bar represents the all-time high. Click Here to Interact With This Chart

METRIC CURRENT 1YR AGO 2YR AGO DIRECTION Operating Revenues/Operating Expense 0.911.000.82FALLING

This is the worrisome part of GLUU's financials. Operating revenue over operating expense simply shows us how much revenue (in dollars) is generated for every dollar of expense. The ratio must be (at a minimum) above 1.0 in order for a company to turn an operating profit. For the latest quarter GLUU showed a ratio of 0.91. Not only is the ratio below one, and falling, but further, this ratio hasn't been this low since the quarter endinng September, 2013. What do all these numbers mean? One year ago Operating Revenues/Operating Expense was 1.00. In the last year we can see operating margins are decreasing and less than 1.0 for the most recent quarter (below the critical level). GLUU's fundamental rating was affected from the operating margin numbers in the following ways: 1. The current value is below the critical 1.0 level (the firm generates an operating loss). 2. The one-year change was negative (lowers the rating). Let's look at Operating Revenues/Operating Expense in the chart below with the total assets in the orange line. Click Here to Interact With This Chart Click Here for a Head-to-Head Trade Card on Any Companies

METRIC CURRENT 1YR AGO 2YR AGO DIRECTION Net Income (TTM US$ Millions) 7-15-19RISING

Net Income (after tax profit) over the trailing twelve months (TTM) for GLUU is rising, but that's not the issue. For the most recent trailing-twelve-months (TTM) the company reported net income of $7 (million). While the annual rolled up numbers look nice (and positive), the quarterly results are slipping, down now for three consecutive quarters, including the first quarterly loss in that time period. In our next chart we plot Net Income (TTM US$ Millions) in the blue bars and the quarterly results in the gold line. Note the rising bars from a year ago (four quarters ago), but that dipping orange line, which is the quarterly result. Click Here to Interact With This Chart

METRIC CURRENT 1YR AGO 2YR AGO DIRECTION Research and Development (US$ Millions) 181411

Research and Development (US$ Millions) is trending higher meaning that for at least five consecutive quarters, it's been rising (in this case, nine consecutive quarters). R&D is up 27% year-over-year and 60% from two-years ago. This is where GLUU stands apart from KING and ZNGA. Both of those firms have stopped increasing R&D or actually cut R&D. GLUU is doing the complete opposite, and of all the bullish arguments for this company, R&D may be the strongest. We see a strong, consistent trend of R&D expense (investment) and that is the life blood of most technology companies, but in particular a gaming company. In our final time series chart we plot Research and Development (US$ Millions) in the blue bars. Note the rising bars from one-year ago and the green bar, which represents the all-time high. Click Here to Interact With This Chart Summary GLUU mobile has broken free from its revenue base in 2014 in part through organic growth and in part through acquisition. While revenue forecasts for the next quarter were taken down, it's simply a fact that revenue growth is still booming, free cash flow is positive (over the last year) as is net income. The company's mode of operation is considerably differentiated from its peers ZNGA and KING as it pours money into R&D to keep a healthy pipeline growing. The greatest concern, beyond what the "next big thing" will be, is a diving operating margin that has the company paying $1.10 for every $1 in revenue. Whether the bullish or bearish thesis has caught your eye, GLUU does present a different and compelling company in the mobile gaming world. Click Here for a Head-to-Head Trade Card on Any Companies

[bidnessetcnews]

Electronic Arts: How Investors Should Play The Earnings Dip

Electronic Arts shares still appear to be on the up. This is how to trade the stock today’s post-earnings decline, writes Bidness Etc

Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) delivered strong first quarter fiscal year 2016 (1QFY16) results yesterday. The catch is that the company’s large stock price growth this year now hampers prospects of further gains.

This is what many investors were thinking. The market was less impressed with the results.

The video game developer posted an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 15 cents, above the consensus prediction of 3 cents. Revenues of $693 million also topped estimates of $652 million. The business registered operating margins of 43%, up from 34% in 4QFY15. The highlight of the earnings report is that digital revenues are consistently 50% above total revenues, a promising trend given the change in gamer preferences in recent years.

Despite last quarter’s positive performance, Electronic Arts provided second quarter and full fiscal year guidance that trailed the average Street estimate. The game maker expects revenues in the second quarter will add up to $1.08 billion versus the $1.12 billion already predicted. Full year revenues are now expected to arrive at $4.45 billion, below the $4.48 billion consensus estimates. Those numbers are not so far from market forecasts. Remembering this is only the first quarter of 2016, the full year projection could very well deliver a positive surprise as the year progresses.

While forecasts for the current year were raised by management, many analysts believe this exceeding and raising has encouraged higher Street expectations. The shares fell more than 4% in after-hours trading yesterday, and are down 1.50% in today’s sessions. There may be several reasons behind this decline.

The greatest concern remains that Electronic Arts shares have risen over 50% this year, burnished by consecutive earnings beats and good news on a range of its upcoming titles, announced at E3.

At that level, further gains are harder to come by, requiring ever more bullish result sets. That did not happen last night.

Why You Should Look To Buy In

The long outlook on EA remains positive. Earnings are expected to grow at a robust 15% over the next three years. Margins appear to be expanding as the digital business booms, supporting strong fundamentals. The recent shift of consumer preference and industry dynamics into mobile gaming has also brought a revival of fortunes for Electronic Arts. Digital game downloads have been on the rise, and EA has done well to remodel itself as a mobile first game developer, porting its popular titles over to mobile platforms to win over a new wave of avid gamers.

There is much to like about the organization’s upcoming titles. Last night, EA said it was on schedule to launch Star Wars: Battlefront as well as the next iteration of Need for Speed, later this year. In another announcement, we learned the highly successful first-person shooting platform Battlefield is making its way to release in 2016. Those, along with an expected topline boost from the launch of FIFA 16 this fall, could also drive earnings higher. That’s why many analysts believe current guidance may be somewhat conservative.

The mainstream video game industry is led by a handful of large players, with smaller players now competing in mobile gaming. Not many can match the strength of EA’s titles, with some overlapping competition provided by Activision Blizzard (ATVI), and GTA maker Take Two Interactive (TTWO). As such, EA commands a higher price to earnings multiple. At 23.50 times next year’s earnings, the shares are not exactly cheap, but are in line with Take Two’s comparable multiple.

Technical Outlook Supports Bullish Thesis

These near future catalysts alone can give a healthy upside to estimates. Investors are now looking at a viable entry point into Electronic Arts. Bidness Etc believes a near-term pullback on the cautious sentiment seen today is a good way to add position at a better value. A technical analysis conducted by our experts suggests that the long term outlook on the stock is bullish.

In the near-term, the upward trajectory of EA stock is seen to hold as long as the price level stays above $70.96. While our technical analysis does identify a possible bearish reversal trend due to a small head & shoulders pattern seen in recent weeks (see chart above), our count suggests the stock will not enter a minor corrective phase any time soon.

The bearish pattern would be activated below the $70.96 level and could likely induce selling pressure towards $69.04, and beyond that even lower to $66.69. With that said, a breakout above the $72.84 level is needed to push the stock into a higher gear. Any move in this direction would nullify the bearish reversal thesis. The stock has considerable support around $65, and an overall strong earnings result has reduced the chances of a broader correction. Bidness Etc recommends investors Buy the stock on any weakness below $70, before the catalysts start kicking in and the bull thesis takes over.

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: AmerisourceBergen, Ally, Capital One, Electronic Arts and Eli Lilly

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

AmerisourceBergen, Ticker: $ABC

AmerisourceBergen, $ABC, rose from an April low to a peak in July. The pullback from there found the 200 day SMA and then reversed. Last week it made a higher high, with the RSI rising in the bullish zone and the MACD positive and moving higher. Look for continuation to participate…..

Ally Financial, Ticker: $ALLY

Ally Financial, $ALLY, ran up to a top in July before a pullback. It made a second move higher to a September top and then pulled back again. Since then it has been in a tight consolidation. The RSI is rising into the bullish zone with the MACD crossed up and about to turn positive. Look for a break higher to participate…..

Capital One, Ticker: $COF

Capital One, $COF, made a top in July and then gapped lower. It bottomed in the pullback shortly after reaching the 200 day SMA and reversed to a lower high. Another drop also stopped just below the 200 day SMA and reversed. It stalled at the July high and has consolidated. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD level and positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Electronic Arts, Ticker: $EA

Electronic Arts, $EA, rose from a bottom in December, but only marginally, stalling in February. Since then it drifted slowly lower for 6 months before rounding to the upside slowly. It has a RSI rising into the bullish zone with the MACD positive and lifting. Look for a push higher to participate…..

Eli Lilly, Ticker: $LLY

Eli Lilly, $LLY, started higher in December reaching a top in March. Since then it retraced the full move up and churned in a wide channel. It ended the week at the top of that channel with the RSI rising into the bullish zone and the MACD positive and moving higher. Look for for a push over the channel to participate…..

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week.  These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which heading into the shortened Thanksgiving week gave equity investors a lot to be thankful for with stock prices sticking near all-time highs.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue the pullback while Crude Oil rises in consolidation. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to drift higher while US Treasuries bounce in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite is pulling back in consolidation while Emerging Markets mark time moving sideways at resistance.

Volatility remains very low keeping the bias to the upside for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. The SPY and QQQ both sit above the 20 day SMA’s and look strong after a digestive week while the IWM continues to churn in a wide consolidation. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

[yahooben]

The top 10 games of E3 2017

E3 2017 had a lot of great games, but these are the best of the entire show. (image: Flickr E3 Expo)

The greatest video game show on Earth has ended, but the hype is just heating up.

Nearly 70,000 gamers flooded an overpacked Los Angeles Convention Center for three straight days (not counting a few days of fancy media briefings) of digital insanity, and game makers of all shapes and sizes delivered enough gaming goodness to last a lifetime — or at least until the holidays.

Though E3 2017 lacked the explosive punch of last year’s incredible show, it was home to dozens of cool games spanning every system under the sun. So how do you narrow that down? Some games were playable; others were little more than a trailer and some concept art. You’ll get your hands on a handful of them in 2017, while many more won’t see the light of day for years. But regardless of development state (and in no particular order) these are the 10 titles we’re most excited to play.

‘Super Mario Odyssey’ (Switch | Release Date: 10/27/17)

Nintendo’s portly plumber is coming back to consoles this October.

How do you follow-up a game as great as “Breath of the Wild?” You call a plumber.

It’s been 15 years since gamers busted bricks in a 3D sandbox version of the Mushroom Kingdom (that would be “Super Mario Sunshine” for the Gamecube), so to say that “Super Mario Odyssey” is a big deal is an even huge understatement. The next entry in Nintendo’s (NTDOY) flagship series is the company’s holiday pillar and a surefire system seller, provided it’s as good as we all expect.

And based on the E3 demo, it certainly will be. Odyssey’s charming world is densely packed with secrets, and Mario is equipped with incredibly cool new moves to help him explore every nook and cranny. His iconic hat is now a crucial tool, used to both thwart and even temporarily possess enemies. Mario the T-Rex? Believe it, and circle October 27 on your calendar. Switch owners absolutely won’t want to miss it.

‘Beyond Good and Evil 2’ (Platforms: TBD | Release Date: TBD)

The E3 audience went crazy for the surprise appearance of ‘Beyond Good and Evil 2.’

You don’t often see a grown game developer weep onstage in front of millions of viewers, but that’s exactly what happened when Ubisoft’s (UBI.PA) Michel Ancel shocked the gaming world with a trailer and quick chat about the long-awaited follow-up to the beloved “Beyond Good and Evil.” The new game is a much different beast, a prequel that, based on an off-the-floor tech demo, hopes to combine the original’s memorable characters with an absolutely immense, seamlessly rendered universe.

Yes, it’s absurdly ambitious, and yes, ambitious games often don’t pay off in the end (see: “Spore” and “No Man’s Sky.”) I also don’t believe we’ll actually play this game in the next year or two, or possibly three. But E3 is about the future, innovation and risk-taking. “Beyond Good and Evil 2“ hits all the right notes and provided the most thrilling chatter of the show.

‘Middle-earth: Shadow of War’ (PC, Xbox One, PS4 | Release Date: 10/10/17)

Get ready to dive back into the battle for the fate of Middle Earth with ‘Shadow of War.’

How do you improve upon one of the best open-world games ever made? You make it bigger, naturally. But to simply say that “Shadow of War” is “bigger” than the 2014 hit “Shadow of Mordor” is like like saying that a Balrog is bigger than a labrador.

Giant fortress battles, a deep loot system, beefier combat, an expanded Nemesis system that turns just about every inch of the world into a unique, procedural snowflake — “Shadow of War” is shaping up to be a monstrous video game and a worthy successor to “Mordor.” This one may very well rule them all.

‘Spider-Man’ (PS4 | Release Date: TBD 2018)

‘Spider-man’ looks like the best video game incarnation of the wall crawler in years.

The web slinger’s been a little hit-or-miss as a video game. Fans point to the seminal “Spider-Man 2” as a high point, but a wealth of decent if forgettable action romps have left them longing for a game that gets its sticky star right.

Sony (SNE) and developer Insomniac’s take on “Spider-Man” might do just that. It’s already being compared to the tremendous “Batman: Arkham” games thanks to a similar combat system, but it’s also gorgeous, cinematic and seems to nail the thing we all really want to do as the webhead: swing freely through the streets of Manhattan. It’s also treating the comic lore with love by including new Spidey Miles Morales in the amazing trailer.

‘Echo Arena’ (Oculus Rift | Release Date: 7/20/17)

‘Echo Arena’ is the future of ultimate frisbee.

E3 2017 wasn’t a great show for VR, but tucked away in a corner was the sort of experience that got us all raving about the pricey tech in the first place. Created by well-known developer Ready At Dawn, “Echo Arena” is the closest you’ll get to the low-gravity training scenes from the sci-fi classic Ender’s Game. Two teams of five float around an arena, launching off walls as they try to toss a ball into a goal. It’s a smart solution to VR’s locomotion issues, and thanks to Oculus Touch and voice support, it feels like you’re really sharing a space together.

‘Sea of Thieves’ (Xbox One | Release Date: Early 2018)

‘Sea of Thieves’ will let you live the life of a pirate on the high seas.

It was a pirate’s life for just about everybody who met with Microsoft (MSFT) at E3 courtesy the swashbuckling silliness of “Sea of Thieves.” Turning up to four players into a gang of marauding buccaneers, it’s a surprisingly complicated game about ship sailing, treasure hunting and, most likely, lots of dying. But ace developer Rare’s gift for colorful characters and playful features is on full display here, making “Sea of Thieves” one of the most likable games at the show.

‘Star Wars Battlefront II’ (PC, Xbox One, PS4 | Release Date: 11/17/17)

Fight through all aspects of the Star Wars universe in ‘Battlefront II’

The fan favorite from 2015 strikes back later this year, and based on what we saw from “Star Wars: Battlefront II” at E3, it’s aiming to fix up the ship.

A full single-player story mode should attend to the biggest complaint about the last game, though “Battlefront II” also expands its popular multiplayer with customizable classes, more weapons and environments and heroes spanning every major Star Wars era. Ever wonder how Jedi Luke would fare against Darth Maul? (OF COURSE!) You’ll find out in November.

‘Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus’ (PC, Xbox One, PS4 | Release Date: 10/27/17)

Take down nazis in America by any means necessary in ‘Wolfenstein II: The New Colossas.’

The game that put first-person shooters on the map got a killer reboot in 2014’s “Wolfenstein: The New Order,” which featured over-the-top combat against some of the craziest nazis this side of a Mel Brooks movie. But developer Machine Games was just getting started.

“The New Colossus” continues brawny hero BJ Blazkowicz’s fight to survive in a future world ruled by cruel dictators; good thing he’s the toughest man in the world, as evidenced by an incredible 20-minute E3 demo that let you mow down mobs of SS soldiers while putting around in a wheelchair.

‘Anthem’ (PC, Xbox One, PS4 | Release Date: Q4 2018)

‘Anthem’ is a an online multiplayer game aimed right at ‘Destiny.’

From “Baldur’s Gate” to “Mass Effect,” game developer Bioware is best known for making enormous, detailed role-playing games. For their next trick, however, the legendary studio is taking a page from the “Destiny” playbook with fast-paced sci-fi combat set in a shared online universe. In “Anthem,” players don exosuits called Javelins as they jetpack around a massive world looking for trouble (and, presumably, XP and loot). Details are still scarce — E3 was more of a coming out party for the game than a deep dive — but suffice to say, fan of Activision’s juggernaut and games like “Borderlands” should pay attention.

‘Far Cry 5’ (PC, Xbox One, PS4 | Release Date: 2/27/18)

‘Far Cry 5′ brings the series’ signature run and gun chaos to American soil for the first time.

Ubisoft had a tremendous E3, showing off a portfolio bursting with both established franchises and risky new endeavors. “Far Cry 5” somehow fits both definitions. The first game in the series to be set on U.S. soil, it courts controversy with its socio-political undertones, pitting a small-town Montana deputy against a militia-like cult that shares more than a few similarities to real-world American extremist groups. But it’s also “Far Cry” through and through, letting you romp around a stunning, grounded open-world begging for exploration and experimentation. Best of all, you have a pet dog. Careful, he bites.

More games news:

These are the coolest VR games at the world’s biggest video game expo

Nintendo shows off new ‘Super Mario Odyssey’ and more at E3 2017

Microsoft’s new Xbox One X is a beast, but faces an uphill battle

Microsoft’s Xbox Game Pass will end your free time forever

‘Injustice 2’ review: Kneel before this sublime superhero fighter

Ben Silverman is on Twitter at ben_silverman.

[seathegreat]

($ea)

[estimize]

5 Stocks to Watch After the Market Closes Today

Facebook (FB): Online and mobile advertising will continue be the focus of the upcoming quarterly release. In particular mobile ad revenue has become the mainstay of each earnings report, accounting for 84% of total ad revenue in the second quarter. Advertising revenue is typically tied to the number of daily and monthly active users recorded during the quarter. In the second quarter the company posted 1.13 billion DAUs and 1.71 billion MAUs, reflecting sharp increases from a year earlier. That number could see some pressure after it was revealed that Facebook was over inflating its video metrics. Meanwhile SnapChat is slowly emerging as a legitimate threat to Facebook’s core business. The Evan Spiegel run company currently boasts 60 million daily users in the U.S. and Canada, about a third of what Facebook has in these markets.

Beyond key ad revenue metrics, the upcoming quarter will highlight the performance of its other ventures. Facebook has only started to monetize Instagram's ad platform which is expected to be a cash cow for Facebook. Outside of Instagram, investors will be looking at the progress from Messenger & Whatsapp, both of which have over 1 billion users.

Other important initiatives this quarter included the launch of its Marketplace strategy within the Facebook platform along with its new professional networking part of the site. Both are direct blows to companies like Craigslist, Yelp and Linkedin which provide comparable services. This should be a seamless process given its massive and highly engaged user base.

Despite all these catalysts, Facebook faces some near term threats that could hamper performance this quarter. Lofty expectations have been placed on Facebook to blow out its third quarter report that it’s only a matter of time that the company misses.

Qualcomm (QCOM): Performance has started to gain traction after multiple quarters of negative quarter. The fiscal third quarter delivered a 3% increase on the top line and 17% on the bottom, with expectations of capping off its fiscal 2016 on an even stronger note.  The chipmaker is gaining significantly in China through  a number of new patent licenses with smartphone providers. Its active pursuit of 5G technology is widely believed to drive  future growth in IoT and the technology markets.  Despite these positive initiatives investors will be focused on any talks surrounding the NXP merger. Qualcomm recently agreed to purchase NXP Semiconductor for nearly $40 billion, making Qualcomm the largest chipmaker in the automotive market.

Fitbit (FIT): Fitbit has been trending higher leading up to its report. The wearables device maker has started to gain significant traction following strong consumer responses to its two new wearable products; Fitbit Blaze and Alta. The two models accounted for 54% of the 5.7 million devices sold in the second quarter and added $3 to average revenue per device. Its most recent devices, the Charge 2 and Flex 2, are expected to do the same for the third quarter. The two products have attracted positive reviews and will be the backbone of this pivotal report before the holiday season.

The company is still expected see pressure on the bottom line from increased spend on research and development along with marketing campaigns to support top line growth. However, margins and profitability are still expected to show signs of improvement from previous quarters.

Whole Foods (WFM): Shares are down 15% in 2016 on a string of flat revenue growth and decelerating profitability. Whole Foods is in the process of shifting towards more value oriented offerings. Its new Whole Foods 365 chains are aimed at attracting millennials who traditionally avoided the overpriced shelves of Whole Foods. The move should support top line growth in future quarters but will have an adverse impact on margins. Whole Food’s may have to lean on these stores as more companies are entering in the organic and natural food business. Management is expecting another soft quarter with comparable sales forecasted to decline by 2.4%.  

Zynga (ZNGA): Without a hit sensation on the market Zynga has seen sales and earnings continue to struggle. The top line has been partially supported by older games like Words With Friends and Poker but its recent titles haven’t gained enough traction to reverse this ongoing slowdown. Meanwhile intensifying competition from Glu Mobile, Electronic Arts, Activision and Nintendo’s Pokemon Go remain ongoing concerns. Unless Zynga can release a new blockbuster app there won’t be too much to look forward to in upcoming quarters.

How do you think these names will report? Be included in the Estimize consensus by contributing your estimates here!

[quantifiedalphayfc]

High Hopes for EA’s Earnings

Based on its earnings history and its track record of crushing analyst estimates, Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) will beat the -$0.09 Wall St. consensus EPS estimate on Thursday afternoon.

We'll start by providing our projections, proceed to an explanation of the rationale behind the projections, and finish with some additional analysis and supplementary charts. Our track record of past quarterly earnings predictions made by the model can be found here.

EPS PROJECTIONS

On average, sell-side analysts on Wall Street expect EA to report -$0.09 in EPS for this quarter. Our model projects a 75-100% probability that EA will beat these projections. It expects a huge beat on estimates, starting from 10% higher than consensus (EPS between -$0.08 to +$0.05).

REVENUE PROJECTIONS

On average, sell-side analysts on Wall Street expect EA to report revenues of $683.75 million for this quarter. Our model projects a 65-75% probability that EA will beat these projections. It expects a small beat on estimates, ranging from 0-5% higher than consensus (revenue between $684M to $717M).

RATIONALE

Analyst estimates are consistently too conservative as companies beat earnings estimates over 60% of the time. Analysts may do this to stimulate trading (e.g., Hayes 1998), to obtain access to management (e.g., Lim 2001) or to confirm a prior sentiment on a stock (e.g. Hwang 1996). In any case, analysts are incentivized to "play nice" with the companies that they cover, and this manifests itself in earnings estimates that are consistently lower than they should be.

This pattern of earnings estimate manipulation can be taken to the extreme in certain companies. Thus, an important factor to analyze when predicting whether a company will beat earnings estimates ahead of time is to look at its past track record of estimate beats. While EA may not be an extreme example of earnings estimate manipulation, it does have an unusually consistent track record of outperforming analyst estimates. Below is EA's earnings history:

EA has only missed one EPS estimate in the last 10 quarters: FQ4 2013 when it missed by 10¢ on the Wall St. Consensus of $0.51. Since then, it hasn't missed a Wall St. consensus estimate, and has beaten by an average of over 300% (median of 68%) marked by two massive beats coming in FQ2 2014 and FQ4 2014 of 1150% ($0.25 EPS vs. $0.02 Estimate) and 1066% ($0.35 EPS vs. $0.3 Estimate), respectively. Last quarter EA nearly doubled the Wall St. consensus of $0.14 by reporting $0.27 of EPS. Estimates of -$0.09 for this quarter are similar to those of -$0.13 from a year ago (FQ1 2014) that EA beat by over 175% by reporting +$0.10 EPS. Similarly, a year prior to that (FQ1 2013) analysts were calling for -$0.73 EPS and EA beat by 31% by reporting -$0.50. It should be noted however, that FQ1 2012 was a rare, albeit small, miss by EA of -4% when they missed estimates of -$0.51 by 2¢.

The analyst consensus of -$0.09 represents a 190% Year-over-year (YoY) revenue decline from the +$0.10 reported the same quarter a year ago. While YoY EPS growth has been negative the past 2 quarters, 190% decline is a far cry from the 22.86% and 4.27% declines of the past 2 quarters. Analysts are setting EPS expectations particularly low this quarter.

From a revenue standpoint, analysts have been much more inline with reported results, making revenue predictions based on past results less certain. Below is EA's revenue history:

The only pattern to be distinguished from the past 12 quarters is that analysts are consistently under-anticipating FQ4 and FQ1 revenues while consistently over-anticipating FQ2 and FQ3 revenues. This pattern supports the basis for an upcoming revenue beat of the $683.75M that analysts are expecting. In fact, that $683.75M would represent a 44% YoY revenue decline from the $1.21B reported in FQ1 2014. While it is unlikely that EA's revenues will surpass those from a year ago, which were boosted by stronger-than-expected sales of both "Titanfall" and "FIFA 2014", a 44% drop seems especially unlikely given that revenue has been growing by an average of 28% on a YoY basis over the past 4 quarters.

Another factor that plays a big role in our predictive model is the recent performance of EA's stock price. We've found through extensive historical back testing that the market tends to anticipate strong earnings ahead of time, and thus stocks are bid up in price ahead of earnings. Below is a look at some of the inputs to our technical analysis model, that shows how EA's current price compares to its recent moving averages:

EA is outperforming its moving averages over all three time horizons: 20, 50, and 200 days. EA's stock price has gone up by 6.17% (at the time of writing) over just the last 20 days showing that investors are feeling especially bullish heading into this Thursday's earnings release.

CONCLUSIONS

Option traders clearly support our thesis, as they expect Electronic Arts to rally after it reports earnings on Thursday. There was heavy volume in EA's Weekly 72 calls that expire just one trading session after earnings are reported. Total option volume in EA quadrupled its daily average for the last month, with overall calls outnumbering puts by 3 to 1. Option traders may be feeling this way because of the recent trend in EA's earnings day rallies, with prices rising an average of 5.4% from close-to-close over the last 8 quarters following earnings.

While we anticipate an earnings beat, there are other factors to consider when deciding whether the market will react favorably to the earnings call. First, it should be recognized that the market may have unrealistically high expectations for EA given its earnings day track record. An example a year ago (FQ1 2014), when EA's price dropped by 6.2% in 24 hours following earnings after reporting unexpectedly strong results (beat EPS by 175% and revenue by 70%.) The reason for the decline is likely because EA guided only inlinewith the Street for Q2 and left unchanged its FY15 guidance.

The reaction to Electronic Arts' earnings will be fun to watch on Thursday after-hours and Friday. While we expect strong EPS and revenue results (relative to Wall St. analyst expectations) we're curious to see how high market expectations are, and what it will take for investors to react favorably to EA's call. One last note is that our data provider, Zacks Investment Research, has EA ranked number 1 out of the 265 stocks in its "Toys/Games/Hobby" industry group and has graded it a "Strong Buy".

[jeffmacke1]

Notes from ILAM talk...