simonloweblog

[simonloweblog]

Immigration v Decreasing fertility: a dichotomy.

William Hague penned a great article in the Sunday Times re the ongoing problems of decreasing fertility and an increasingly ageing population.

Declining childbirth rates leading to declining populations is suddenly creating headlines in many countries and poses serious concerns to many governments who understand that their economies will soon be unable to support the cost of looking after an ageing population.

That is set against a declining work force as average childbirth in the UK has fallen to 1.47; a rate of 2.1 is required simply to maintain the population.

The cost of rearing children is frequently cited by young couples as a reason for not starting a family. Governments are aware of the consequences of a declining population and are now actively encouraging childbirth with tax breaks and generous childcare support. Never theless, based on current evidence, those and other measures are not arresting the decline. In many of the advanced economies young people are deciding that having a family is simply too expensive when owning  a home has become increasingly out of  reach, particularly in the larger cities. Good education for children is also a major consideration and many young people are also concerned about the environment, pollution and the unabated consumption of the earth's diminishing resources and how that would impact on the lives of their offspring.

There are those who say, "this is good" as they see a declining population as the only way to save the planet by reducing overall consumption in what has been an exploding rise in the world's population over the last 100 years from 2 to 8 billion.

Unfortunately, this theory is wrong because, Africa aside, the rest of the world is moving towards a downward spiral of less births, resulting in fewer young people working to support larger and larger numbers of old people who need more care and consume more resources- healthcare being only one example.

Set against these facts, the UK population in 2024 reached 69.2m with over 707,000 immigrants arriving in GB in that year alone. That was the 2nd largest number ever; the largest being in 2023 when over 900,000 arrived! These facts are set against successive governments pledges to reduce immigration. Cameron said he would bring it down to “tens of thousands” and Johnson got “Brexit done” because he said that Brexit would give control of immigration back to the UK Government. Neither succeeded and that is because neither wanted to succeed. We all know that Politicians lie but this lie is a spectacular one because the truth is that Britian has no chance of increasing productivity, GDP and the standard of living if there is not a material increase in the workforce. But here is the problem. The ONS predicts a population of 76.6m by 2047. At the same time the Government recognizes that there is a chronic shortage of new houses and has thus pledged to build 1.5m new homes by the end of this parliament in 2029. Almost everyone recognizes that is pie in the sky as only an average of 167,000 houses have been built over the past five years! To top it all off, the headline in today’s Times is “ UK housebuilding falls at fastest pace since onset of pandemic”.

So it seems pretty clear that a failure to provide adequate housing which together with increased pressure on Social Services, healthcare and education is creating more frustration, anger and violence in communities across the land. This government either does not fully grasp the impending crisis or is simply incompetent or unable to come up with a feasible plan to solve the dichotomy between excessive immigration/ the problems created by it on the one hand and a stagnant economy on the other. Both will lead to a continuing decline in Britain if a radical cross party plan is not devised very soon. Brits need to know that they cannot have their cake and eat it to.

The fact is that the old cry that immigrants are taking the jobs of "locals" is simply not true when unemployment in both Britain and the United States is at a near historic low. Germany, Japan, South Korea and Russia are all veering towards serious economic woes with birthrates of 0.8 per woman.

As is usual when major problems and challenges loom, pessimism often sets in. As an eternal optimist I believe that the solution is already to hand. The population issue is indeed the topic of the moment but what the worriers fail to recognise is that robots are coming to the rescue. They will be the new labourers and should eventually be in limitless supply. They don't eat,  take holidays or complain about long hours and working conditions; nor do they need housing or healthcare. They just need the sum of their own space. Education will be instantaneous and sophisticated AI programming will perfect procedures that humans are imperfect at.

So ignore the doomsday merchants and look to the future with hope that man's continuing ingenuity will save the world and not destroy it.

[simonloweblog]

"empty promises and empty threats"



Keir Starmer has bowed once again to the Left of his Party by declaring that the UK will recognise a Palestinian State at the UN General Assembly in September, if Israel does not commit to a ceasefire in Gaza and eventually to a Two State solution.

Neither Israel nor the US are likely to pay much attention to his new position. To have any impact the Security Council would have to pass a resolution endorsing the UK vote and any such vote would be vetoed by the US and would therefore have no practical effect on the Status Quo. Please note that 140 Countries have already declared themselves for a Palestinian State with no effect. 

It is time that both France and the UK accept that they no longer have any real influence in the Middle East nor can they shape or effect the outcome of events there. What makes Starmer's hastily convened press announcement all the more foolish looking is that he couldn't decide which Palestinian faction should form a government to lead a Palestinian State. Would it be the Leaders of Hamas? or Hezbollah? or Mr. Abbas, the titular head of the Palestinian Authority who is despised by both Hamas and Hezbollah! This does not mean that in principle he and others are not wrong in condemning Israel’s actions in Gaza as they relate to the civilian population. Many Jews ask, “how did we get here”? Where a Jewish democratic state- descended in part from the Holocaust- is engaged in a policy of starvation in a war with Hamas and shows no sign of ending? The Founding Fathers of the State of Israel, Weitzman and Ben Gurion, would turn in their graves and would be appalled by the current Israeli Government policy. The truth is that those who founded the State of Israel and the Kibbutz's were tough but humane. However, the world in which we live today has created monsters on both sides. The fact is that this war is unique in that it pits the worst, most fanatical and amoral government in Israel’s history against the worst, most fanatical, murderous organization in Palestinian history.

But they are alike not just in the awfulness of their goals, each seeking to wipe out the other but they are also guided by leaders who have consistently prioritized their own political survival and ideological obsessions over the basic well-being of their own people. The moderate Israeli opposition parties and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank have no influence and because Netanyahu insists on “total victory” over Hamas, which he will never achieve, and the Hamas leadership still insists on surviving this war to control Gaza. Therefore this war has no end in sight.

For months Hamas has been aware of the acute food shortage in Gaza without any plan other than to kill as many Jews as it could and with no strategy to protect civilians in Gaza from what Hamas knew would be a massive Israeli retaliation. It also knows that if it releases the hostages, agreed to its leadership leaving Gaza and invited an Arab peacekeeping force blessed by the Palestinian Authority to run Gaza instead of Hamas, the suffering of Gazans would stop immediately. But Hamas refuses to do that. It not only wants to keep control of Gaza after any cease-fire; it also wants the US to guarantee its safety from a resumption of Israeli attacks if and when it gives up the last Israeli hostages. Trump is not going to do that and they know that.

But equally, the current Israeli government is little better for it has empowered the likes of Bezalel Smotrich, who suggested last year that blocking humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip is “justified and moral”. The right wing has been in Israel for a long time, but it never had the power it has today. Bibi has not only empowered it but has allowed it to direct Israeli foreign policy. He has also sought to strip power from Israel’s independent judiciary and has no intention of allowing the formation of an Independent Palestinian State. Trump and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, have never understood this. They think that everyone is just as transactional as they are whether it’s Vladimir Putin or Netanyahu and that deep down everyone wants “peace” first and foremost and not “a piece” of Ukraine or “a piece” of the West Bank or Gaza. That is how Bibi and Putin have, each in their own way, managed to fool Trump and Witkoff for so long.

The sadness is that war shows no mercy to its victims; but what is equally sad is that there are so many governments in the world who pursue policies based on their own selfish ambitions and not the well-being of their citizens. Last week I wrote about Rabat and the high esteem that Moroccans hold their King in as he promotes the welfare of is country and its peaceful advancement to prosperity. It would b e great if the world could produce more like him and fewer like the many dictators that rule today.

Israel needs to get rid of Netanyahu and the Palestinians need to get rid of Hamas so that both their peoples can have a chance of agreeing to a lasting peace.

[simonloweblog]

"Your Party" Will Jeremy Corbyn's new party shake up British Politics?

Jeremy Corbyn and Sarah Sultana have announced that they are setting up a new political party to be called "Your Party". Ms. Sultana has declared that:

“It is ordinary people who create the wealth — and it is ordinary people who have the power to put it back where it belongs.”

That statement shows just how naive Ms. Sultana is. For starters, the British working class aspires to be middle class. Labour's left still does not get that but crucially, both of them clearly do not understand that within the next few years the majority of wealth will be created by robots without any assistance from "ordinary people".

The leaders of both the main Parties are aware that most likely, 8 political Parties* will contest the next general election. Irrespective of the UK's "first past the post" system the Reform Party is likely to be a major challenger and if the Liberals hang onto their 72 MP's the outcome will produce four not two major parties in the House of Commons.

Liberal attempts to Introduce proportional representation in the past were rejected by both Labour and the Conservatives  but with increasing numbers of MP's from other Parties intense pressure may grow to introduce a form of proportional representation in the not too distant future. There is little doubt that the substantial majorities that the two dominant political parties commanded in the 2019 and 2024 general elections may be a thing of the past especially as there is little chance that Labour under Keir Starmer will succeed in delivering on the many promises made last year.

"Sir Keir Starmer’s tragedy as PM is that he is weak and visionless. He is taking on the vested interests one by one — and failing." (Matthew Syed)

Most likely this will result in Labour losing a large number of the seats it won in 2024 and as things stand it is highly unlikely that those seats will return to the Conservative party. So there is little chance of a return to the status quo ante. In that scenario the dominance of the two party system over the past 100 plus years may be over. That would lead to a fundamental change in politics in Great Britain.

"If it ain't broke don't fix it" (Bert Lance) does not apply in the UK because the system is broken as neither of the two major Parties have found solutions to Britain’s four big problems, Housing, Health, Immigration & Productivity.

"The country is crying out for decisive, dynamic and energising leadership. Discontent is growing among the hard-working population who see their labour poorly rewarded, are furious at immigration and the growth of lawlessness, and despair about jobs and hope for their children" (Anthony Seldon)

For decades each Party once elected proceeded to reverse the policies of the other with the result that Britain has not moved forward. So maybe the only way to shake up Britain up is to change the fundamentals of the way it is governed and maybe just maybe "Your Party" may be a catalyst to effect that change.

*Labour, Conservative, Liberal, Reform, SNP, Green, Plaid Cymru & “Your Party”

[simonloweblog]

Rabat Morocco- A garden of Eden

It is some time since I have written a travel blog but my recent visit to Rabat, Morocco's Capital was such an eye opener that I want to share my experience.

Morrocco is a country of 37m people governed by a much loved King. Unlike many of its Arab neighbours it does not possess oil and until recently its principal exports have been phosphates, agricultural products and flowers. Heavy tariffs of up to 200% are levied on imports forcing international brands to offer licenses to local manufacturers to produce their brands in Morocco.

What has become a much sought after commodity in Africa and the Middle East, namely stability and security, has been steadily growing under the benevolent rule of King Mohammed VI. An astute businessman, he has been attracting substantial investment into his country from his wealthy Gulf neighbours and well planned construction and development is particularly booming. In principle it is a condition of planning permission that only Moroccan labourors  are employed.

Vast areas of the city are being transformed into affordable housing for the emerging middle class. Alongside smart new malls there are manicured gardens in between wide boulevards with beautiful solar powered deco styled street lights that are reminiscent of Haussmann's Paris in the 19th century. 

I have never seen a cleaner city; you just do not see any trash anywhere! Gazillion of trees are planted every year and the city has been transformed into a veritable garden of Eden. Many of the young who could not find work have been employed by the government to keep the streets clean and recycled  water is used to keep new gardens looking pristine.

Morocco has a proud history and the government have an ongoing program of restoring ancient mosques and refurbishing buildings that are transformed into museums to create more attractions for tourists. Alongside the ancient are stunning new architectural wonders like Zaha Hadid's brilliant new art and theatre building and Morrocco's  tallest building which is a masterpiece designed by Spain’s Rafael de la Hoz and Moroccan architect Hakim Benjelloun.  

both these man made wonders will open later this year.

 Good healthcare is developing apace with Africa's newest, biggest hospital due to open shortly. Using robotic planning this ambitious project will be completed from scratch in just over one year! In addition, Morocco will join Spain and Portugal to host the World Cup in 2030.

Rabat's niche airport is small and there are no long queues there or anywhere which alongside the smooth flow of traffic make sightseeing reminiscent of times gone by.

There are no flashy Ferraris, noisy Lamborghinis or RRs to be seen and the wealthy live behind tasteful green clad walls. Unlike so many cities in Africa and  around the world there are no beggars on the streets and women feel secure walking alone at night. Elegant restaurants and bars are plentiful and recently English has been declared the second language replacing French, whose influence remains post Morocco's colonial past, but unlike Algeria where Independence was only achieved after a bloody war, Morocco's transition was peaceful.

In all not only did we have a wonderful time but it is clear that Rabat and Morocco have a bright future in what is an ever increasingly unstable world.

As an extra bonus, it offers great value as almost everything is half the price of anywhere else!

[simonloweblog]

"Trump's big gamble"

Senator Lindsey Graham has asked the ultimate question as Trump's ceasefire wobbles.

"Is it still Iran's ultimate objective to destroy the State of Israel?"

If yes, then the ceasefire is only a pause in Iran's quest to obtain nuclear weapons and so Trump's bombing of its uranium enrichment facilities will have only setback that objective and the question will simply be "for how long?"

It is generally acknowledged that the Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei is an unwavering  believer in "the cause" so if he and his regime remain in power it is fair to assume that their constantly stated mission will remain unchanged.

Trump has just said again that he does not seek regime change. Even if he did and it did change there is no reason to suppose that this central Iranian policy objective will change.

It would be fair to conclude therefore that at best there has been a delay in Iran obtaining a nuclear device and at worst a new determination to have it and use it.

The IAEA ( International Atomic  Energy Agency) has declared that the 400 kilograms of enriched uranium has "disappeared" which strongly suggests that Iran furrowed it away safely in anticipation of a possible US strike. If so,  the delay to making a bomb may be significantly shorter than anyone thinks. 

Trump and Hegseth's premature pronouncement of total victory will look not only foolish but will likely effectively return the parties to the status quo ante.

If that happens it is entirely possible that the next round of hostilities will be more intense and much more dangerous.

In that scenario not only will President Trump not get his Nobel Peace prize but may find that he has been responsible for a nuclear war that could be a prelude to Armageddon.

[simonloweblog]

"Bombs Away"

While pundits and political soothsayers debated the pros and cons of whether President Trump would bend his ear to the supplications of his Maga supporters or to Netanyahu and his hawkish military chiefs and advisors, “The Donald” had already made his decision and given orders for his B2 stealth bombers to destroy Iran’s deeply protected uranium enrichment sites. With this decision, he took a step that four of his predecessors (including himself!) refused to do for fear of dragging the US into yet another unwinnable Middle East war.

Donald Trump and his lacky, Pete Hesketh, the Defense Secretary, have claimed total victory and the total annihilation of Iran’s nuclear capability- it remains to be seen whether that is true or not.  On reflection, there was surely no better time to act. Over the past months, Iran’s proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, had been severely weakened. The hideous Assad regime in Syria had fallen and over the previous days Israel had inflicted serious damage on Iran’s Airforce, military installations, air defenses and substantial parts of its uranium enrichment facilities. The Supreme leader’s ability to retaliate and inflict major damage on Isreal had been dramatically curtailed as witnessed by the fact that few of their drones and ballistic missiles were able to penetrate the IDF’s coordinated air defenses assisted by the US and some Arab States.

This was a big win for Netanyahu who had been preaching for decades about the existential threat of an Iran with a nuclear bomb. His persistent “schmoozing” and pandering to Trump’s ego finally persuaded him to pull the trigger. For this was not just a speedy surgical attack but a de facto declaration of war. Trump is a President who has little time for protracted negotiations and loves nothing more than making sweeping declarations and pronouncements about the brilliance of his policies and insights which just may have been why he decided to act now.

The accuracy of his claims will be tested and either verified or disclaimed in the coming days and weeks but the outcome and consequences of this bold action will take considerably longer to play out. What will the Supreme leader do now? What actually can he do? Most experts believe that Iran will have hidden away substantial quantities of enriched uranium and that its indecisiveness as to whether to build a bomb or not will now most likely move swiftly to a determination to have “the bomb” as the only viable deterrent against US and Israeli aggression.

The debate as to whether the current regime will survive or not is equally divisive. With no organized political opposition in place and little appetite or support for the return of the “young” Shah (who is 65!) I think it unlikely that Khamenei will be toppled and even if he were to fall, the Revolutionary Guard would likely remain in control and continue to terrorize its people.

While all this is happening, Keir Starmer and his European counterparts make inane and ineffective pronouncements about “de-escalation” and stand by helplessly in a growing conflict that both Britain and France are the original architects of.

Thankfully, it seems both Russia and China will not get involved thus sending a clear indication to the USA that they will not interfere in “your” business provided you do not interfere in ours. That message does not bode well for either Ukraine or Taiwan.

As to Iran and Israel’s neighbours, the surrounding Arab States, they have remained remarkably quiet over the past days. This suggests that they are not unhappy about what the US and Israel have meted out to Iran; their forsworn Shia enemy. Other than the odd statement about the plight of the Gazan Palestinians they have also stayed “schtum”. Surely the Palestinian Authority must finally realise that no Arab state is coming to their rescue and that with Iran so severely impaired it is time to finally change strategy and accept that fighting Israel to achieve the unachievable must be put aside and instead adopt realistic aspirations under a peaceful banner.   

We can only hope that in what looks like a pretty convincing victory for Israel it will take this opportunity to pause, reflect and offer an olive branch to both Iran and the Palestinians. If it doesn’t it may live to regret it.  

[simonloweblog]

UK Strategic Defense Review

Since VE day 1945, successive British generations have felt secure primarily because there have not been any real threats to security and safety in the British Isles.

The authors, of the latest Strategic Defense Review (Lord George Robertson a former defense secretary, General Sir Richards Barrons and Fiona Hill paint a very different picture in the latest Defense Review that presents a scenario of a seriously dangerous world that could pose a real threat to the UK. It exposes, the true vulnerability and inadequacy of our armed forces. 

Apart from our current dependence on American military hardware, software and spare parts the sheer lack of funds to buy “kit” to match and compete with our potential adversaries is mind boggling. Successive Chairmen of the British Joint Chiefs have said that Britain is no longer capable of mounting a meaningful operation overseas and in terms of numbers we are now minnows in every category. The Navy has two aircraft carriers one of which is almost permanently in dock being repaired or upgraded. They are built to carry up to 140 aircraft but together only have 35 because the defense budget cannot afford to purchase any more. Poland has over 700 tanks ready for combat; Britain’s has 25! In an age when the US and others are allocating hundreds of billions of dollars to develop a ""golden dome" defense system, the UK has allocated 1 billion! To cap it all, the total number of men and women in the armed forces is less than 73,000 and could all fit comfortably into one of the UK's larger sports stadiums; say no more.

So far from sending expeditionary forces overseas, Britain could not defend itself effectively against an attack of the Homeland short of using its nuclear forces and we all know how that would end.

The sheer number of both offensive and defensive  weapon categories available today means that the defense budget needs to reach 5% of GDP to be able to deliver the depth of research, development and procurement that is needed for the UK to play in the big league. On the basis that the USA is no longer a reliable ally, Britain needs to be in control of its own defense.  Without the wholehearted support of the US, NATO will be very vulnerable to hostile forces and so the only solution is to have a pan European defense system that embraces all sectors of the armed forces. But achieving that is a very tall order. I remain anti EU because of leaders like Oban in Hungary and political parties like the AfD in Germany and the emergence of more right-wing Governments across the EU. Poland and Rumania are the latest casualties of a sharp turn to the right so I am skeptical that a cohesive sustainable European coalition can be achieved because historically European governments have been very chauvinist and are unlikely to surrender their precious foreign policy to anybody that they cannot control. It has worked, albeit with continuous difficulties and strains with the EU's economy policy but potential war is a very different kettle of fish.

The fact of the matter is that the UK still pretends it is a major power and in overall economic terms it does still rank at No.6 in the world but with ever more National debt and the cost of servicing that debt along with low levels of productivity and perpetually higher demands for healthcare, social security and shorter working hours combine to create an equation that simply does not work. 

Coupled with the strains of higher immigration and the associated costs thereof deep dissatisfaction with Government and politicians of all persuasions continues to increase.

The fact is that the UK simply cannot have its cake and eat it. Keir Starmer says that tough choices must be made but in reality no significant policy changes that offer any solutions to the realities of Britain's poor economic prospects have been presented. 

[simonloweblog]

The Courts v the Trump Administration

A debate is raging over the Federal Court’s right to rule against Trump’s tariffs. Their challenges will most likely be tested in the Supreme Court, the outcome of which will be unknown for some time. Countries are now reassessing their positions and are not exactly rushing to DC. There is no queue around the White House with delegations waiting to bend the knee.

 A second debate is raging around the damage being done to US soft power as a result of his attacks on American universities and student visas. The outcome of this is not in any doubt. Tariffs may stand or fall but the damage done by Trump to US soft power which has for decades attracted the brightest brains to study and then often remain in the US is possibly so serious as to ruin America's reputation as a beacon for learning, freedom of speech and entrepreneurship.

Trump is creating openings for other Countries to step into the void that he is making and whereas I do not see a mass migration of youth to China, I certainly do see Europe and the likes of the UAE benefiting from students' fears of rejection and intimidation.

The 1951 Geneva convention on Human Rights was enacted to prevent a repetition of the pre- war rejection of Jews seeking political asylum from Nazi Germany. The mantra then was "never again". The US was the leader and champion of promoting human rights, freedom and democracy and through its generosity to other nations, starting with the Marshall plan after the end of WWII, it became the country that world youth aspired to study and live in. In the course of only 100 days Trump has destroyed those aspirations and through his about turn on Foreign Policy has lost the trust of long-standing Allies. Trust is earned and is built over time; once broken it is difficult to re-establish it.

The Right's political argument is that Trump won the election and won it convincingly; that he did. He won 312 Electoral College votes to Biden's 226; he won the popular vote and gained majorities in both Houses of Congress. Republicans claim, therefore, that he has a mandate to carry out the pledges that he made on the campaign trail. The fact that he is ignoring several Congressional laws in doing so has hitherto not been challenged by a compliant GOP majority who seem to have relinquished their powers in the face of Trump's bullying and arm-twisting.

The next big test will be the "One Big Beautiful Bill" which is now before the Senate. In his usual manner, instead of using a scalpel to remove the excesses of abuse, Trump is trying to take a machete to several Federal programs. If it makes it through the Senate unscathed it will affect Medicare, Medicaid, Health Insurance, Social Security & food stamps for those citizens who rely on them to make ends meet. Their votes at the midterms next year may turn the tide.

I do believe that in spite of his attacks, the Constitution will hold. The pushback has already started and eventually the more moderate Republicans in the House may wake up to the damage that Trump and his MAGA followers are doing to the USA. Already the DOGE experiment has fizzled out but only after doing considerable damage to several Federal departments as well as tens of thousands of employees losing their jobs without the commensurate savings of trillions of dollars that were promised. Whatever the outcome, the consequences of his reckless Executive orders will continue to take their toll.

Ultimately it will probably be the Supreme Court that decides the fate of Trump's so-called attempt to drain the swamp and in so doing retreat from the world into fortress America or whether the traditions and principles of the Founding Fathers will prevail.

[simonloweblog]

Has Trump created the politics of today or have the American people created him?

There is no doubt that the Donald Trump of today could not, nor would he have been elected President any time prior to 2000. He would have been sunk by the "Pussy" tapes alone, never mind his views on Nato, Europe, Tariffs and Russia.

Fundamentally, he is the product of creeping change in American society that has allowed, yea produced, the emergence of a man like him.

The 20th Century was the American Century and post 1945 the US was the only World Superpower. Yes, Russia had a mighty nuclear arsenal but economically the USA reigned supreme in the world. The population and the living standards of all classes of Americans soared in the five decades post World War II. Prosperity advanced for the majority of American citizens and the USA protected and promoted democracy throughout the world. Everyone everywhere wanted what America had to offer; freedom of speech, travel and worship as well as freedom from ‘want’ and ‘fear’ was advanced by a strong democratic government that provided security and increasing prosperity through better education, research and development, the promotion of an ethic of hard work and advancing equal opportunity. The USA was the country of choice for people everywhere who aspired to a better life.

At the same time, the federal government's foreign aid program exchanged money and assistance for influence and military bases that created a worldwide empire backed  by American institutions like the World Bank, the IMF, the UN, the WTO and the Bretton Woods agreements; making the US dollar the dominant transactional currency in the world. Sterling had lost its reserve currency position, the Euro had not yet been born and nobody had heard of the Chinese Renminbi.

But during this period,  the Federal government embarked on a series of disastrous wars that took the lives of tens of thousands of young American soldiers, cost the taxpayers trillions of dollars and alienated whole swaths of peoples from Vietnam to the Middle East, central America to Serbia, Pakistan to Africa.

In its quest for world domination, America had become a latter day Imperial power whose foreign policy became less and less popular at home and more and more despised by its client states abroad. Whereas Americans were feted in Europe in the early post-war years, they quickly became "The Ugly Americans" by the 1970's.

Over the same period, education and the way young families raised their children in the US was going through substantial change.

A new liberal, informal philosophy was taking hold that encouraged less parental control and promoted the idea that all children were "winners" in spite of the fact that often they were not. That combined with the sexual revolution and economic prosperity carved a road to instant gratification and the "me, me" society was created,

Charity, previously spearheaded by the Church, became a way of self- advancement in a culture where money that was already the cornerstone of social standing became the supreme barometer of recognition.

So far removed from the unity of purpose that the two world wars had engendered, the American people started to become more divided, fractured and self-centered in their vision of what was important to them. Over the past twenty-five years these views have polarized the political parties into ever sharper contrast of opposing philosophies. Power, money and self-advancement were no longer only the preserve of entrepreneurs they also became the pathway for politicians to become rich. They depended more and more on powerful corporations to flood the media to secure their election- that was an easier and more effective pathway to election success than trudging from door to door to persuade individual electors to vote for them.

The tendency for successive Presidents to seek more power using tools such as Executive Orders, has resulted in a change in the balance of power that the Founding Fathers had intended to be equally divided between the Executive, The Legislature and the Judiciary.

These changes have fundamentally altered  American society in its attitude to its Politicians, it's view of the rest of the world and has led to the election of a man whose charisma and demagoguery has appealed to citizens who no longer believe in the promises that traditional politicians made but failed to deliver.

The sad fact is that Americans who have by and large succumbed to the "me-me" way of life only pay lip service to the thoughts of how the next generation or their grandchildren will fare because, like American CEOs and Politicians, their only concern is for the present. How the world will survive global climate change is way too far in the future to really trouble them; they identify with slogans like "drill baby drill" because the price of fuel at the gas station is far more important to them than a possible tsunami caused by the melting of the ice caps sometime in the future. 

In conclusion, it is the American people who have created Donald Trump and who elected him with a popular majority. So, for as long as the US politics of today prevails the likes of Donald Trump will likely continue to win elections in the USA.

[simonloweblog]

"credit where credit is due"

I never thought that I would say it but the speech that President Trump gave in Saudi Arabia showcased a masterful delivery of a new US foreign policy position for the Middle East. 

The streets of Damascus reverberated with joy in Trump’s announcement that the US would lift all sanctions against Syria. His acknowledgement that his predecessors’ repeated interventions in Arab affairs were misguided and the trillions of dollars spent on wasteful wars would no longer find favour in his Administration.

Instead, he acknowledged that the key States of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Abu Dhabi had successfully charted a miraculous   . which was bringing peace and prosperity to its people. through transformation in their economies. His comments signaled a fundamental shift away from the US Middle Eastern policy of the past 25 years.

While praising the leadership of each one of his hosts, he also extended an olive branch to Iran, but at the same time threatening dire consequences if they do not acquiesce. Indeed, an iron fist in a velvet glove. 

Trump drew a sharp contrast between Iran's failing economy and crumbling 1970's buildings with the modern infrastructure and shiny towers of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi which demonstrated a clear vision for Iranians of what would be possible if their leaders gave up their pursuit of Islamic revolution and embraced peace and progress.

This was part of a series of masterful strokes in a display of mutual praise and admiration for his hosts alongside the displays of exuberant pomp and luxury that appeal to Trump's belief in his own Imperial position.

This may be one area of the world where he actually has a strategy that may well work to bring peace to a historically troubled region.

He appeared as a relaxed, charming, confidant President who felt respected and appreciated. He clearly reacts well when he feels admired and not relentlessly attacked.

We can only hope that this may be a glimmer of his seemingly genuine desire to stop the war in Ukraine and resolve the ongoing misery of the Palestinians in Gaza. 

Credit where credit is due, so congrats president Trump.

[simonloweblog]

"It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future"

“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future". So said Niels Bohr  (a Danish physicist) and how right he was. 

Economists around the globe are grappling trying to predict what effects Trump's tariff war will have on world trade and their own country's economy which is an impossible task because today's edicts today can be overturned tomorrow or even this afternoon!

There are so many theories as to what Trumps real game plan is, if indeed he has one, but whatever it is and whatever effects it will have, one outcome seems clear. It is that his goal is to disengage from the rest of the world through self-sufficiency which he believes will make America stronger and richer. This is a dramatic extension of President Monroe's 19th Century doctrine of Isolationism, but that doctrine was issued when China was embroiled in the Opium wars not the mega industrial giant it is today and not in a world that is so economically interdependent.

Trump claims to be war averse, but he has launched a War, a trade war the consequences of which for American families and US world influence may have far greater effects than any of America's wars since World War ll. There is nothing normal about Trump and his second Administration but one thing is clear, it is that it is difficult to find any economist who believe that his actions will benefit American families financially in the foreseeable future.

Whereas he is the main protagonist, he is not alone amongst world leaders in what has become a struggle between free markets and globalization often exposing countries to unfair competition and economic dependence and insecurity. What he seeks is all out federal control of all the market levers which has hitherto only been pursued under totalitarian regimes. It cannot be achieved in a democracy. Furthermore, this is diametrically opposed to the very essence of globalization by which every country should produce what is does most efficiently and economically so that the consumer gets the best products at the best prices.

Unfortunately, what has happened, specifically in China, is that central government has subsidized some industries resulting in unfair competition in the race to grab market share and in some cases this has permanently damaged producers in target markets because of “product dumping”. China is guilty of disregarding many of the WTO’s trading rules which Trump, quite rightly has called out, resulting in his “Tariff War.” The truth is that the world is not a level playing field; the differences in labour costs from country to country dictates the final cost of almost all products and as we move forward it will be those who master, at scale, the sciences of IT and AI and their application in the production of pretty much everything. To date, America has been the leader in tech but China is not only catching up but in some sectors is now ahead of the US. With its massive population who are fast becoming the world’s leading consumer society, China will no longer need the US market to the extent that it has done up to now. Conversely, if the US consumer is deprived of cheap Chinese toys et al, there is going to be a very painful period of high prices causing financial pain if Americans continue to consume at the rate they have become accustomed to. 

Eventually it is likely that human labour will be replaced by robots and that may create a level playing field but that is some way off. The transition period to achieve that will be measured in years not days or months and that may be Trump’s biggest problem because US citizens have little patience and are unlikely to passively endure the expense to achieve that long term objective. Their pain may well manifest itself in the mid-term elections in 2026 and if Voters caste out Republican Representatives and Senators, Trump will become a lame duck President; what then? 

[simonloweblog]

The Reform Party’s stunning victory at the Runcon & Helsby by-election last Thursday in the UK has propelled it onto the main stage in British politics. Barely over a year old, Nigel Farage’s party achieved a huge voter turnaround in a constituency that less than 10 months ago was won by the Labour Party with a majority of over18,000 votes which is a bug feal in England.

As per Trump's victory in November 2024, this election victory was snatched by Farage not because of detailed policies on the economy or even immigration but because he oozes charisma. Like Trump who manages to secure voters not by the attraction of his policies but because he exposes his opponent’s inability to persuade voters that they will succeed in solving their problems. This is irrespective of world events over which they have little control.

Over the past 80 years, the Labour and Conservative parties have roughly shared power, equally. Neither has solved the three main challenges that concern todays  voters; namely, immigration, the National Health Service (NHS) and the economy. Both Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch are intelligent politicians but sadly neither are charismatic nor can either hold a torch to Farage's ability to mesmerise an audience whose attention span is measured in minutes and can only be held by fiery pronouncements that trash their opponents. In this endeavour Farage and Trump are birds of a feather for they ooze charisma as opposed ti Starmer who has had a charisma bypass.

Both are like preachers who promise deliverance without being able to offer any proof of how they will achieve it. Policy details and pronouncements are irrelevant in a world that is measured by 30 second soundbites on social media and seeks instant gratification.

Obama emerged from nowhere  because he was a great orator and had a slogan, "Yes we can" but other than a catchy throw away line what did that mean? As it turned out, very little.

JD Vance is a clever man but cannot compete with Trump. If anything, he puts people off but unless the Democrats find a media savvy new leader he may well become the next President by sheer default. Similarly, if both the Labour and Conservative parties continue with Starmer and Badenoch as their leaders, there is a very good chance that Nigel Farage will become the next Prime Minister of the UK.

[simonloweblog]

Generally,  people are quickly bored by politicians who talk a lot and do little. With Trump people are now just exhausted by the unending sheer number of his edicts and actions. Everyday conversation is dominated by his daily eruptions, TV and social media are congested by his minute by minute pronouncements and flip-flops and the resulting push backs by the everyone else coalition of opposition.

There is no room for anything or anybody else.

In his first term there was still space for others but in this his second term he not only dominates the airwaves in America but everywhere else as well. From China to Mexico and Canada to Australia Governments simply do not know how to handle him and what will come next and there is no sign of a letup.. Whether you live or hate him you cannot deny his unbounding energy. That in itself is unique, indeed a phenomenon.

If he has his way we will be exposed to his ramblings and only his for not just the next 45 months but forever. He may well be capable of keeping this up ad nauseum, but we cannot. The damage to our state of mind and our inability to converse about anyone or anything else may cause irreparable damage to our brains never mind our lifestyles.

So far, there appears only to be three countries that have the leadership and a clear strategy of how to deal with him. Canada, Mexico and China. Notice not one European country is included on that list.

In Britain not only are the two main political parties failing and fumbling to come up with a clear response to his tariff hai-lstorm but they are both about to be eclipsed by the Reform party and the hitherto ineffectual Liberals in todays local elections. The Government is failing to provide the electorate with any answers and the Conservative party is struggling to regain any sense of relevance. In short there is a feeling of passive hopelessness in the UK.  The EU has hitherto failed to come up with a coherent joint response, not surprising considering that each country continues to forge its own  ambitions and fails to see that individually they can no longer compete.

As Trum seems unlikely to run out of steam and Europe continues to find talking easier than taking action and with no sight of resolution in Gaza or Ukraine with, China likely to fill the voids that America is creating with its new foreign policy it seems unlikely that we will have any relief from Mr. Trump anytime soon.

[simonloweblog]

USA 0-China 1

Eighty percent of US citizens think that it would be a good thing if more manufacturing jobs came back to America but only twenty percent said they would want to work in a car or steel factory!

The fact is that there is no way on earth that the hourly wages of a US blue collar worker which are at least 6 times higher than their counterparts in China can lead to the  onshoring of manufacturing jobs in the USA unless American consumers are prepared to pay much, much higher prices for all the goods that they have been accustomed to buying from China for a fraction of the price.

If they are forced to do so it will result in a substantial increase in inflation and a painful rise in the cost of living for the working and middle classes

Those jobs have been lost and are not going to return. Even if US Corporations are persuaded to open new factories back home it will take years to build them and they will be primarily run by robots for that will be the only way they will be able to compete. Today, manufacturing in the US accounts for barely 8% of GDP and of that only c 4% is directly related to the manufacturing process as the rest relates to marketing and design etc.

Trump's love affair with Tariffs may well be his downfall because whereas his supporters do not seem troubled by his purges of Federal employees or his withdrawal of Federal funds from elite universities, they do care about the cost of toys for their children and that of a new car so unless we are all missing something  they could be his undoing.

Whereas China may still lag behind the US in inventing new technologies it has huge capacity to develop them to scale in record time and thus deliver them commercially faster and more efficiently than can be done in either the US or Europe.

This is now demonstrably the case with their revolutionary development of Deep Seek and the emergence of BYD, China's huge car company that has overtaken Tesla in China and will soon dominate EV sales in Europe.

Whereas Trump can claim success with his Immigration policy limiting the entry of illegal immigrants, his tactics are attracting increasing resistance in the courts and protests on the streets. With the election of Mark carney in Canada, his desire to make Canada the 51th State looks doomed, as are his Gaza and shameful Ukraine policies. Meanwhile the Universities that he has attacked are pushing back and the State of California is suing his Administration.

Trump may succeed bullying Japan and some other countries into “bending the knee” but China is not playing ball and his worsening poll numbers will dive further if and when Walmart, Target, Costo and Lowe’s shelves are empty.

Whereas he is not down and out, there is increasing hope that his juggernaut will come to a halt just as the Russian tanks got bogged down in the mud during their advance on Kiev.

[simonloweblog]

Fact v Fiction: Trump's Trade "War"

The MAGA mantra is  “Make America Great Again”. In the 2016 Presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton made the point that America was already Great!. It was then and it is now but somehow Trump managed to persuade over 77 million voters that it wasn’t.

Unemployment in the US is at 4.2%. The all time low over the past 25 years was 3.5%. America’s share of world trade is at an all time high of 25%  viz., China’s at 14.5% and the EU’s share of 16.6%. US GDP in 2024 was $29.35 trillion, another all-time high, viz China’s at $18.5 trillion and the EU’s combined GDP of $20.2 trillion.

In addition to these sturdy stats that clearly show that the US is the undisputed world economic superpower, America has the world’s most powerful military, with outposts and bases in over 100 countries, more than any other Country and has the world’s only predominant trading and reserve currency.

In addition, the USA is at this time, the world’s titan in the fields of IT and AI.

Yet once again in November 2024, Trump managed to persuade the electorate that America was an economic disaster being ravaged by unfair competition from China, Europe and as per his “Liberation” day,  even the smallest, poorest countries like Madagascar. They exported $82m of  Vanilla, its most valuable product, to the US in 2023. Because it is so poor it buys little from them and so under the new tariff formula will now have to pay a whacking 47% tariff on this export!- madness.

Through its generosity, research, medical, agricultural and financial assistance, America was the most influential country throughout  Africa. Well it will not be for much longer.

It is true that China has not played by the rules and has ruthlessly flouted the WTO but surely the way to level the playing field is to persuade them and others to remove their tariffs on US goods, by threatening them with tariffs as opposed to starting a tariff Trade war the main loser of which will be the very citizens he purports to champion. The fact is that the only reason that countries like Vietnam and Cambodia will beat a pathway to the White House to negotiate with him is because America IS the strongest economy in the world!

If Trump retains the tariffs announced last Wednesday against 185 countries (NB: there are only 195 recognized countries in the world)  then there is little doubt that inflation will rise and the very citizens  that he claimed  would benefit from electing him will feel the pain of higher not lower prices on a myriad of consumer goods that will hit and hurt  everyone but most especially the “Walmart” buyer.

Trump’s main objective allegedly is to bring manufacturing jobs back to America. Two of his main targets are the Auto and Textiles Industries.

The average hourly rate for a textile worker in Vietnam is $1.37 against $16.49 in the US; a Chinese car worker earns up to $4.37 an hour whereas a US car worker gets $28 an hour.  How in hell’s name can the US compete with those differentials and if those industries produced EVERYTHING in America the cost of living would rise to such an extent that it would cripple the working class. And incidentally the reason that American cars don’t sell in any numbers in Europe or China is that they are either too big or too expensive for the mass market.

The huge increase in world trade and prosperity ushered in after the end of the Second World war created through Organisations and Institutions established by Roosevelt & Truman; these are now being dismantled by Trump.

The last time that America attempted to create an economy based on protectionism by introducing tariffs was through the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of June 1930 and that led to the great Depression. In two days last week the American stock markets lost $6.5 trillion which is 15 times the total value of auto imports into the United States in 2024! And even if Trump’s policy were to bring some manufacturing jobs back to America it will take years.  Hopefully long before that the American electorate will have come to their senses and the extremists in the Republican party will have been shown the door.

[simonloweblog]

" A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" (Winston Churchill) succinctly describes Tesla and Elon Musk, its CEO, principal shareholder and driving force.

Valued at "only" $37b ten years ago, Tesla's market cap soared to a high of $1.5 trillion on December 17th 2024, trading at 211 times its earnings ratio, as against that of Toyota trading at only 7 times and GM at a poultry 5 times earnings!

Since then, its stock price slumped  to a "low" of $223 on March 11th valuing the company at $679b.

In short, like its driving force Elon Musk, Tesla is one of the most volatile companies in the world. At its height, it was the 9th most valuable company in the world. 

Few doubt that Musk is a genius and that he has revolutionized the electric car and its impact on the car industry as well as the climate change debate. Through DOGE, his impact on US politics and the American economy as well as his influence on other countries has caused a lot of controversy and backlash. Like Icarus, has he flown to near to the sun and burnt his image and irreparably tarnished the Brand that has made him the richest man in the world?

From the darling of Liberal environmentalists to a new label of "Swasticars", he has alienated his core customers in the US, made enemies in Europe with his  support of the AfD in Germany and his constant meddling in UK politics.

He may have the support of Trump and the MAGA crowd but generally they are not Tesla buyers.

Quite aside from these self- inflicted wounds, China, Tesla's second largest market is no longer in love with it because their own EV producers like BYD and Jaecoo are making EVs many of which are half the price of a Tesla not to speak of being more advanced technologically. They have a range of newer models and the status symbol of owning a Tesla is wearing thin.

So what are the future prospects for Tesla? Well, Trump's tariffs will protect the company in the short run in the US but I believe that Liberal America's love affair with the brand is over and he will only be able to compete with Chinese companies in China if he drastically lowers the price of his cars. If he does that, its juicy profit margins will evaporate making the P/e ratio and the share price even more outlandish.

Of course, if he decides to launch his humanoid robots through Tesla all bets are off. He remains a brilliant entrepreneur and if he extricates himself from politics, we must remember that he is still a huge force to be reckoned with.

[simonloweblog]

Trump: The comeback kid-a unique phenomenon in US political history

Donald Trump is either hated or loved by the vast majority of voters. He is undoubtedly the most divisive and possibly the most consequential politician in the history of the US. No ex-President or Politician has ever been pursued by some many claimants and prosecutors as he has been and none have managed to dodge the bullets so consistently as he has done. He is, in short, a unique phenomenon.

Some factoids that support this claim.

He is only one of two Presidents in US history to serve two non-sequential terms as President.   

He is only one of two President to be impeached, but the only one to be impeached twice.

He is the only President to be re-elected after been being on trial for rape, sexual harassment, fraud, falsifying business records, election subversion and been convicted on 34 felony counts.

He is the only President to have been both a Democrat, an Independent and a Republican.

He is the oldest President in history to win a Second term

Never in American history has a serial adulterer survived politically from the many scandals that The Donald has.

Since 1973 Trump has been involved in over 4,000 legal cases.

After he lost the 2020 election and  the storming of the Capital he left DC and was to all intense and purposes a political pariah who was deserted by and left for dead by the Republican party and shunned by the entire political establishment not to mention the business Oligarchs who would not even return his calls. But almost immediately, he set about rebuilding his image and "the comeback kid" went on to stage the biggest comeback of all time to win the 2024 Presidential election. In achieving a stunning victory he managed along the way to extinguish all political opposition both outside and inside his party and his millions of devout “Maga” fans are more loyal than ever.

So what is it that has made this man so unique? Like all men of history, he has had his failures. He has been bankrupted six times yet is thought of by his followers as a hugely successful business man.

There are five main reasons that together have made him unique.

Like Hitler he mesmerizes his audiences and he can be the most charming person in the room. He oozes charisma and whereas he can rant on aimlessly sometimes for hours, he is a master of whipping up a crowd.

He is a serial bull; he does not countenance any opposition. He has systematically destroyed all his opponents from "Little" Marco, "Crooked" Hilary, "Sleepy" Joe Biden to Ron de "Sanctimonious"

 He is a master of gauging the mood of the crowd and appealing to their fears and aspirations. 

His narcissism is total, so he never has doubts at all about himself and truly believes that he is right about everything and therefore that everyone who disagrees with him is wrong.

He never gives up and he has no compunction about lying about anything.

But like almost all Dictators and bullies he will eventually fail and fall. It won't be because like Hitler or Napoleon he loses a war but eventually, those who swung the election in his favour will realise that he is a fraud and will not deliver the Utopia he has promised them.