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Leave Her to Brew: an Early Analysis of the 2021 Champion Chase

Around this time a few years ago I was on Koh Phangan, a Thai island famous for its Full Moon Parties. During one of the hazy nights I spent on the island, I was approached by a promoter advertising a Muay Thai tournament that he promised would be a spectacular display of combat between world-class performers, all accompanied by free drinks. As any western tourist with no experience of these kind of things, a love of sport and the smell of several Sangsoms on their breath would, I accepted without a second thought. 

What followed can only be described as the most compelling lawsuit for false advertisement the courts of Thailand will ever see. In truth, I should have been suspicious when I looked around the venue and saw no locals, no TV cameras, not even a big screen. Somehow, this world-class event had evaded the attention of the Muay Thai hardcore and instead attracted a crowd consisting solely of Brits, Irish and Australians, all of whom had just stumbled back from an all-day boat party and somehow managed to remember the sporting spectacle that was due to be held in their honour.

The faces in the audience were, unbelievably, nothing in comparison to those in the ring. Despite my promoter friend’s earnest promises of the most deadly Muay Thai operators in this part of the world, the only local taking part had a severe limp and had clearly fallen out of love with the game (imagine an 18-year-old Cue Card being forced to carry top weight in a Southwell handicap).

The rest of the competition was made up of other Brits, Irish and Australians who were in an even worse state than their watching friends; they looked as though they had been on yesterday’s boat party and had not gone to bed since. One of these intrepid fighters ended up winning by default, with the local hero forced to withdraw injured (although he was still more than capable of winning with his hands tied behind his back) and the other tourists practically knocking themselves out. 

Watching the Champion Chase earlier this year, I was forcibly reminded of this ignominious evening. We had been promised the greatest Queen Mother in years - Altior, the two-time champion and four-time Festival winner, would defend his crown against the unbeaten* great Irish hope Chacun Pour Soi and a Defi Du Seuil who had swept all before him so far that season.  As I saw first Altior and then Chacun Pour Soi drop out of the race, before Defi Du Seuil slipped further and further back in running, the smell of cheap vodka and vomit rose unbidden in my nose and dragged me back to the disappointment of that Koh Phangan night.

It’s not that I didn’t enjoy seeing Politologue win - like the “Muay Thai” I ended up watching, it was a thoroughly entertaining spectacle once you accepted it for what it was and I’m very glad I saw it. However, the race was simply not what I had built myself up for and it is hard to accept compensation in place of a once in a lifetime experience (just ask any of the dopes who paid over $1000 to see Blink-182 at Fyre Festival).

I came into this National Hunt season hoping that the 2021 Champion Chase would make up for last year’s non-event. Our opening act began this weekend with the 2020 Arkle winner Put The Kettle On taking on Defi Du Seuil in the Shloer Chase, to be followed by Altior’s return in next month’s Tingle Creek and Chacun Pour Soi’s reappearance on the other side of the Irish Sea (he is entered in the John Durkan at the start of December, but the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase over two miles on 27 December seems more likely). Unfortunately, whilst we were treated to a thrilling performance by Put The Kettle On, our starter was marred by the sight of Defi Du Seuil being pulled up before the last.

This disappointing showing from the Phillip Hobbs horse prompts an early re-think of the 2021 Champion Chase (the bright side of this being that at least, instead of being crushed all in one go by disappointment of the eve of the race, we can accept its slow suffocation throughout the season and make arrangements accordingly). Thankfully, Defi Du Seuil is reportedly OK after his failure to complete - however, after the second worrying run in succession for the former Triumph Hurdle winner, there may now be concerns as to whether he will even run in the two mile showpiece next year, let alone threaten to win it. 

That the gelding is showing signs of potential wear and tear may not be too surprising given that, for a seven-year-old, he is fairly heavily raced. Having started his career aged just three in France, the son of Voix Du Nord has now had 22 runs in under five years. To put this into context, Altior, at ten, has raced just twice more than Defi Du Seuil, and Chacun Pour Soi has seen a racecourse only eight times despite being a year older than his compatriot. Like the kid at your school who was given his first beer before he started his GCSEs, Defi Du Seuil peaked early and may now forever be chasing his glory days.

It is not just the volume of racing which has left its mark on the French bred, but also the intensity of his efforts. Since Defi’s juvenile season, he has not finished further than 3.5 lengths ahead of second place in any of his 6 victories and has also been beaten by less than 4.5 lengths on two occasions. We all remember the McManus horse’s titanic clashes with Un De Sceaux last season, both run on ground as fit for a war reenactment as for a horse race, as well as his trilogy with Lostintranslation in his novice campaign. As fans we love these sort of races, but they scar horses - Kell Brook may have claimed he was better than ever going into his fight with Terence Crawford on Saturday night, but, after having both eye sockets shattered on previous occasions, it transpired that such comments didn’t defend him against being knocked out.

Defi Du Seuil’s time at the top of the two mile division may therefore be dwindling to an end. This is not an unfamiliar pattern amongst top class French-bred two mile chasers: Master Minded ran his last race aged eight and Douvan has raced just five times since turning seven in 2017. Whether he still has enough left to make the 2021 Champion Chase a spectacle is questionable, even aside from valid questions about whether he was ever good enough to threaten Altior - is beating a 12-year-old Un De Sceaux by under three lengths a strong enough piece of form to justify the challenge?

Fans of JP McManus’ gelding could take comfort in Defi Du Seuil’s poor re-appearance record. He has lost first time out in two of the previous three seasons, including finishing dead last in a November Grade Two over two miles in his novice chase season before going on to win the then-JLT. Phillip Hobbs is also in poor form, having had just two winners from 35 runners in the 14 days preceding Defi’s return on Saturday. If you want to find it, there is evidence to convince yourself that he retains the ability to win the Champion Chase come March. Just remember, if you do, that some people manage to persuade themselves that the world is flat, the American election was rigged and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is a good football manager.

There is not much more to write about Chacun Pour Soi since my preview of last season’s Champion Chase which, strangely, weakens any early case against him winning the 2021 edition further. Willie Mullins’ hope did not show up to Cheltenham in March and appears to be somewhat fragile - whilst he only suffered a stone bruise and would likely have raced at Punchestown, the fact remains that Chacun Pour Soi has now run just four times since arriving at Closutton in December 2016. Indeed, at the moment, I would rather bet that the eight-year-old won’t run in the Champion Chase than I would on him winning the thing. Douvan is my favourite horse of all time and I have simply been hurt too much to be sucked in by his successor. Chacun will have to make a bigger romantic gesture than Justin Timberlake’s flash mob in Friends With Benefits to get me on side. 

Chacun’s absence in March also leaves the question of how he will handle the Festival to fester for another year. He has never run at Prestbury Park and we’re left to ponder whether he will deal with the stiff track and the extreme undulations, let alone the unique atmosphere, after only four runs under the care of Mullins. This could be picking at hairs in light of his win at the Dublin Racing (on a stiff enough track at Leopardstown) and Punchestown (which does undulate) Festivals. However, for a horse whose record doesn’t inspire confidence that he will turn up at all, a best price of 9/2 is short enough for an unproven Cheltenham racer who could plausibly disagree with the Festival on the day.

If you believe Nicky Henderson, he has “never seen [Altior] move better” (RacingTV Stable Tour). We have heard similar rhetoric from the six-time champion trainer throughout Altior’s career, but there comes a point where this simply stops being true. Patricia Pugh’s horse will be 11 by the time the Champion Chase is run and you have to question whether he retains his full powers.

The last 11-year-old winner of the race was Moscow Flyer in 2005 and, to find the only other horse old enough to start secondary school to have won the Champion Chase, you have to go back to 1976 and Skymas. Now listen, I love mocking the #trendslads as much as anyone and if I’ve ever seen a horse to laugh at this stat it is Altior - he has embarrassed me in front of my family too many times not to hesitate here and he did sprint away from Sceau Royal in rather familiar style last time out at Newbury.

However, at this stage of his career, it is valid to question whether Altior is capable of repeating his Festival heroics for a fifth time. Pugh’s horse showed the first cracks of fragility last season, losing his unbeaten record to Cyrname in a race which Henderson described as “unavoidable” and which I call “utterly stupid from both Nicky and Paul to go life and death in the trenches in November”. He was then absent until February, missing an (allegedly) intended appointment over three miles on Boxing Day, before pulling a sickie on the eve of the Festival. This was the first time in five seasons that Altior had missed Cheltenham and, in his advancing age, it would not be too difficult to foresee this once again. 

Aside from the above, Altior’s winning margin in the 2019 Champion Chase was just 1.75 lengths - rumour has it that the Star Sports betting stand is still stained from the excited mess which Ben made as they came over the last, his dream of getting Henderson’s horse beaten finally within touching distance. In comparison, Altior’s previous Festival wins were by seven, six and seven lengths and Politologue had never gotten within breathing distance of the High Chaparral gelding. If you consider these potentially waning powers alongside Altior’s age and apparent increasing susceptibility to injury, not to mention Cyrname’s revelation that he can in fact be beaten, a case can be made for vulnerability at best and a non-appearance at worst. 

In my preview of last season’s Champion Chase, I compared the race to the Expendables film franchise - with trailers full of superstars and an end product that Adam Sandler may as well have acted in. Well, we’re now back for the third edition, which unfortunately received the worst reviews yet: as Rolling Stone said in its one-star write-up, “The Expendables 3, trading on our affection for action stars of the past, has officially worn out its already shaky welcome”. In short, a Champion Chase which at first glance looks so full of dependable quality could, in similar fashion, very well fall apart once more - whether this is in the months building up to it or on the day itself.

Could this leave the race open for good old Politologue once more? I would be the last person to put you off a 16-1 poke on a proven Grade One horse, especially in a race like this. However, Paul Nicholls’ horse has consistently fallen short against the best of the best and, having written a rather pessimistic article so far, I have to retain enough optimism to hope that a proper superstar can emerge to outshadow the defending champion. Christmas is on the way, after all.

Greaneteen has been touted as a potential threat to the established order by better judges than myself - Tony Calvin previously advised an early Tingle Creek and potential Champion Chase bet, and he is due to put it up to Altior in the Sandown showpiece having won the Haldon Gold Cup following Calvin’s article. Greaneteen is now a best price 20/1 for the Festival (having been as big as 40s before his Exeter victory) but in two runs round Cheltenham he has finished only 13th and fourth. His fourth place was in March’s Grand Annual carrying 11-7 which, with respect, the owner of a championship quality horse would expect to be low enough to carry to victory (see Frodon shouldering 11-12 to win over three miles at the Open Meeting last month). His win in the Haldon Gold Cup saw him win by a neck whilst carrying just 11-3 (albeit more comfortably than this sounds) - Moonlighter, in second, was rated 142 (now 147) and has won just three of 16 races. Not one for me, unfortunately.

The 2018-19 season saw Le Richebourg emerge as a potential two mile superstar, winning three out of three races over the distance (including two Grade Ones) and finishing a very close second to the gallant Delta Work over two and a half. He would surely have won the Arkle had he stayed well, but Joseph O’Brien’s horse has now been absent with injury since February 2019. Whilst there’s a gap in the market, Le Richebourg may no longer fit through it after so long on the sidelines. 

Other potential hopefuls include Duc Des Genievres, who won the aforementioned Arkle in 2019 and performed strongly on his reappearance this weekend, and Douvan (just let me dream). There is far too much against either of these horses for me to suggest that they could be a potential Champion Chase winner in 2021, however (at least in public - I will keep myself warm with my duvet of Douvan dockets dating back to 2017).

We are left, then, to turn to the usual point of respite when confronted with such a predicament - the Kettle. 

Put The Kettle On was thrilling at Cheltenham this weekend when battling past a rejuvenated Duc Des Genievres in the Shloer Chase and she clearly loves racing at Prestbury Park. She had to show tremendous bravery to force past Paul Nicholls’ horse, who had led from the off and at one point established a rather wide gap between himself and the mare. However, like a local at their favourite pub shooing an out of towner out of their usual seat, Henry De Bromhead’s charge made her presence known to secure her third win in as many outings under the gaze of Cleeve Hill.

This performance was even more impressive given the list of factors which went against her going into the race. De Bromhead’s horses are in terrible form, having won just twice in 42 outings in the two weeks before the race, and Put The Kettle On was having her first run since the March. This was indeed only her second run in a year, and, having been active throughout last summer, it would have been fair to expect the mare to have needed the run. On top of this, whilst all of Stowaway’s daughter’s wins here have come on soft ground, jockey Aidan Coleman suggested that she did not enjoy the boggy conditions: “She hated the ground and was never happy the whole way. It's a testament to her ability and attitude because it was a hard race.”

With all things considered, it was difficult not to be taken by the performance. There are of course lingering doubts - the close proximity of Duc Des Genievres, who has not won since his Arkle victory, could lead to suspicion, and some will argue that Put The Kettle On is yet to face a genuine on-form Grade One animal given Defi Du Seuil’s non-performance. However, Saturday’s conditions were a near replication of the Duc’s greatest race, in which he achieved a rating of 163, and he looked near his best following the switch to Paul Nicholls’ yard. The winning distance of 1.25 lengths also does not do the mare justice, as she was handily on top at the finishing post. 

With this performance in mind, along with the fragility of the “big three” in the market, I think Put The Kettle On offers terrific value at a best-price of 10/1 for the Champion Chase. There is a good chance that she arrives at the race with at least one of the triumvirate absent, and, even if all are present, it is not difficult to envisage any of them encountering problems in running. 10/1 for a proven Cheltenham performer, who has transferred her novice ability into open company, goes on any ground, is open to improvement aged just six and who may find herself facing little competition is too big for me and, in a worst case scenario where she finds nothing else and all three of the big guns return to their peak, is a fantastic each way play. 

Having won at Cheltenham in November 2019 before being put away until her Arkle win, it may be that Put The Kettle On is left to brew until the 2021 Champion Chase. Whilst in this scenario her price would not fall of her own making, the 10/1 could rapidly disappear if further problems emerge with Altior and Chacun Pour Soi (Defi Du Seuil is already as big as 20/1) and none of the other potential candidates step up. 

However, it would be a shame not to see her until March - she is a fantastic, brave horse who could quickly become a people’s favourite if she continues in the same vein as her last three runs. I hope she causes her price to collapse all on her own.

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*In Britain and Ireland - he was beaten as a 3 & 4 year-old in France.

[shanroeform]

Poking Holes: An Alternative Gold Cup Preview

It’s sometimes hard to tell, by the time the Gold Cup rolls around on the Friday of the Cheltenham Festival, who is the most exhausted: the horses struggling up the hill or the racing public running on fumes (and particularly noxious ones at that in the Guinness Village). Podcasts, papers and presenters constantly remind us exactly how gruelling the pinnacle of racing is but fail to congratulate the spectators on making it through three and half emotionally and physically exhausting days to witness the spectacle. It’s certainly safe to assume that the number of fallers in the stands of Prestbury Park and pubs across the country far outweighs those on the course itself.  

However, since Ed Chamberlain is unlikely to press Ruby Walsh for his opinion on whether Steve’s dad was wise to have his ninth Guinness of the day at only quarter to two, we’re left to analyse the racing.  

This article is part of my Poking Holes series, which looks at the big Cheltenham races from a more critical angle in the hope that this alternative analysis may open up a previously unexplored angle. Previous pieces have focused on the Champion Hurdle and the Champion Chase.

Santini

In a somewhat strange situation, Santini is simultaneously many people’s “shrewd” bet of the week and the favourite for the Gold Cup. As a result of a late surge in popularity, having been relatively friendless all season, we now find ourselves two weeks away from witnessing insightful pundits clutching betslips dated 2019 stand arm in arm with “BOOOOOM” Twitter on the racecourse rail as they urge Nicky Henderson’s horse home.  

Santini arrives at the Festival off the back of an unbeaten two-race season, most recently having seen off Bristol De Mai in the Grade Two Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham. Whilst this course form may be taken to be a huge positive, it is not the first time that Santini has performed well at Prestbury Park in January on his second run of the season – during his novice hurdle campaign, Henderson’s horse claimed victory in the Grade Two Ballymore trial before being turned over as an 11/4 favourite in the Albert Bartlett next time out. As Chief Brody proved in Jaws 2, if it looks the same, smells the same and sounds the same, it may well turn out to be the same.

Indeed, Santini’s only other run at the Festival also ended in defeat. This may seem like an overly harsh assessment – his run in last season’s RSA Chase was brilliant (as was the race as a whole) and, if you believe Nicky Henderson, came off the back of the stable wondering whether they’d need to amputate Santini’s leg, so poor was his preparation. However, it is sometimes necessary to conduct a nitpicky analysis in a race like the Gold Cup, and a Festival record of 0/2 is certainly something to flag.  

On top of this, Santini’s defeat of Bristol De Mai can itself be looked at warily. The last winner of the Costwold Chase to convert this into Gold Cup success was Looks Like Trouble in 2000, before Santini’s sire, Milan, had even stepped foot onto a racecourse. Of course, trends such as these only take one horse to break – however, for a race which should in theory act as the perfect stepping stone to racing’s blue riband event, such statistics do not justify the revered position which Santini’s victory has been given.

The form of this victory is also not the most convincing. Bristol De Mai is an admirable but not quite top class horse, despite Nigel Twiston-Davies attempting to persuade even PETA otherwise – he threatened supreme class with two consecutive Betfair Chase victories, and even had the handicapper fooled when briefly rated as the best horse in training, but has never won at Cheltenham and clearly reserves his best form for Haydock. Whilst some may point to Bristol De Mai’s third-place finish in last year’s Gold Cup, this form can also be viewed sceptically given that he was beaten home by Annibale Fly, a horse who has finished dead last on all three starts this season.

The final stick to throw at Santini is his inexperience. Henderson’s horse has had just five career chase runs (perhaps explaining why some still perceive him to be an under the radar animal), a statistic which could quickly reveal itself in a race where everything happens quickly (despite its lengthy nature) and where Nico De Boinville will be given no room to allow his steed to settle. Santini had plenty of space in the Cotswold Chase and jumped well for the most part (bar a mistake at the second last) - this will simply not be the case at Cheltenham, and he may find himself like the child who comes to watch his dad’s Sunday league game but gets chucked in at centre back when they find themselves a man short.

To put Santini’s inexperience in to context, Al Boum Photo had seven chase runs before his victory last season. Native River had had so many runs that he was essentially handed the trophy as a reward for maxing out his racecourse loyalty card, whilst Sizing John had raced nine times before his 2017 success. This is not to say that Santini cannot win the race; many will view this limited experience as a positive, suggesting that Henderson has an unexposed horse who remains capable of vast improvement. However, it is certainly something to consider in a race as demanding as the Gold Cup.

Al Boum Photo

Whether you favour Al Boum Photo for the Gold Cup largely depends on how you read the form of last season’s edition. He looked hugely impressive, but, with the aforementioned Annibale Fly and Bristol De Mai behind him, it is valid to throw questions at the form.  

This scepticism is furthered by the memory of Kemboy unseating at the first in last year’s Gold Cup, leaving Al Boum Photo free to race clear up the hill unchallenged; after all, the winner’s stablemate promptly turned up at Punchestown and put Al Boum Photo to the sword. Admittedly, the form of the Punchestown Festival can sometimes be skewed, the result of a long and difficult season. Unfortunately, in this case such an excuse is as convincing as Deontay Wilder claiming that his pasting by Tyson Fury was the result of an overly heavy walk-in suit. The defeat by Kemboy was only Al Boum Photo’s third run of the season, and Kemboy had in fact run in between the Gold Cup and his defeat of the Donnellys’ horse.

There is also no way of knowing how Al Boum Photo’s exertions last year have affected him. We have repeatedly seen how previous victors have struggled to return to their peak following Gold Cup success -  indeed, Native River’s reappearance last season was the first time the existing champion had even returned to the race since Lord Windermere’s testimonial in 2015, and no horse has retained the title since Best Mate in 2004. All we have seen of Al Boum Photo this season is a comeback victory over the 152 rated Acapella Bourgeois at Tramore, who with all due respect he could have turned over with three legs and jumping backwards. There is nothing to suggest that Boum Photo has been affected by last season’s race; however, given the historic struggles of former victors, and the lack of evidence that the Mullins horse will not be similarly affected, this is worth highlighting.

Delta Work

Delta Work has had a brilliant season so far – he has claimed two thrilling Grade One victories, the Savills Chase and the Irish Gold Cup, finishing ahead of most of the leading Irish staying chasers. This follows an excellent novice chase campaign, in which the Gigginstown horse claimed three Grade Ones and finished third in what looks like one of the strongest RSA Chases in recent years.  

However, whilst Delta Work is clearly a fantastic horse, his record on ground which is soft or worse would be cause for concern in a season where Storms Ciara and Dennis have caused racecourses to rebrand as a budget Aqualand. Gordon Elliot’s horse has form of 21211111 where the going is better than soft; turn on the sprinklers, however, and the gelding’s record turns in to 332431341. Whilst Delta Work clearly does not hate soft ground, he is also less than enamoured with it; he may not be the eight-year-old child who spits out his mum’s fish pie, but may well be the more mature 17-year-old who tolerates it out of politeness whilst barely concealing his contempt.  

Admittedly, Delta Work took victory in the Pertemps at the Festival on soft ground. However, this was carrying only 10-10, winning by only a nose to a Glenloe who was carrying only 2 pounds less and who has not won since (and indeed has won just once in his entire career). Using this evidence to validate a belief that Delta Work will cope with soft ground in a Gold Cup, then, is akin to believing your best mate’s claim that he can comfortably deal with 17 tequilas because he can drink the equivalent amount of water.  

On top of this, whilst last season’s RSA was a fantastic spectacle, it would be perfectly reasonable to hold reservations about Delta Work given that he was beaten by both Santini and the lamentably absent Topofthegame. It could certainly be argued that the Gigginstown horse found his momentum checked by the leading pair – however, enough of the race remained to give him the opportunity to counteract this, and yet Delta Work gave no indication that he would have overturned the result given an extra two furlongs.  

Finally, Delta Work will be partnered by a new jockey at Cheltenham. Regular rider Jack Kennedy sustained a broken leg at the Dublin Racing Festival, whilst his other pilot, Davy Russell, will be loathe to abandon Presenting Percy. Mark Walsh will take the ride in the Gold Cup - he is clearly a very talented jockey and will no doubt meet Delta Work before the big day, but the lack of established connection between horse and rider may be enough to put some off.

Lostintranslation

Colin Tizzard’s horse looked one of the most exciting staying chase prospects in years at the beginning of the season. Indeed, the hype around Lostintranslation was so huge that RacingTV put together a highlight reel of all of his jumps on his seasonal reappearance at Carlisle – the media fawning was such that you'd have been forgiven for thinking the horse was in fact about to be retired. Rumour had it that Lostintranslation’s horsebox was completely carbon neutral, fuelled solely by the fervent insistence of the racing public that this was the second coming.

Unfortunately, despite turning up to Kempton for the King George in a vehicle which Greta Thunberg has since tried to borrow, Lostintranslation blew up spectacularly. Whilst he has since had a wind operation and Tizzard insists that he is back to peak form, Lostintranslation is difficult to support after ruining his environmentally friendly reputation. Backing the Flemensfirth gelding requires a lot of faith that the trainer has patched up the machine, with little evidence besides the former dairy farmer’s hollering to suggest this is the case.

Even without Lostintranslation’s Christmas struggles, there would be some cause for concern that he has been off the track for too long ahead of the Gold Cup. His record after a break is not fantastic (his seasonal reappearance form reads 221) and he has always been a horse who improves for racing, like the kid who returns to school after the summer holidays and for a few weeks has forgotten how to hold a pen.  

Finally, it may even be questioned whether Lostintranslation wants a trip this far. Tizzard mostly kept him to around two and half miles last season and ran the gelding in the Supreme during his novice hurdle campaign. He had never even raced over three miles until Aintree at the rear end of last year and, whilst he was incredibly impressive in beating Topofthegame there, the Liverpool track is nowhere near as testing as the Gold Cup trip around Prestbury Park. Similarly, whilst beating Bristol De Mai on his stomping ground in the Betfair Chase earlier this year was hugely eye-catching, Haydock is a flat course which is not overly testing when the ground is dry (as was the case this year, when Lostintranslation won on good to soft). Whilst Lostintranslation looks like a stayer, he is yet to demonstrate this convincingly over a track which is somewhat similar to Cheltenham, and this would be worth considering on top of his interrupted preparation.

Clan Des Obeaux

Paul Nicholls’ Clan Des Obeaux has been the brilliant victor of the King George in its previous two renditions, somehow allowed to go off at 11/2 earlier this season despite cruising to victory a year before. However, despite his performances in the Christmas showpiece, questions remain over whether Clan Des Obeaux is capable of repeating such a showing at the Festival.  

The Nicholls’ star could credibly be labelled as a flat track bully – he has not demonstrated an appetite for Prestbury Park, with a record of 264225 at Cheltenham, and has struggled on similarly undulating tracks (finishing fifth at Sandown and second at Down Royal). All but one of his victories have come at Newbury, Haydock, Kempton and Ascot, relatively flat tracks, and, whilst he has won at Exeter, this was in a Class Three novice chase. Put a rolling track in front of Clan Des Obeaux and he appears more likely to require a ski lift to get up and a sledge to come down than to prick up his ears and drag Harry Cobden along for the ride.

It is also questionable as to whether Clan Des Obeaux has the stamina for this trip. He travelled nicely for a long way in last year’s edition, sitting in behind Native River and alongside Al Boum Photo before the field rounded the turn, Clan saw the hill and said to Harry Cobden “no thanks”. As much as some pundits will insist that the King George is a thorough test of stamina due to the breakneck speed at which it is run, it simply cannot compare to three and a quarter miles around a hilly Cheltenham. It is therefore fair to question whether a horse who travels as beautifully Clan Des Obeaux has the endurance to see out this gruelling race.

Finally, it is hard to actually assess Clan Des Obeaux’s form this season. Whilst he won the King George by 21 lengths, the impressive nature of this distance is tempered by the fact that second-placed Cyrname was clearly suffering from his Ascot battle with Altior; his subsequent defeat in the Ascot Chase attests to this. Clan Des Obeaux was also beaten by Road to Respect on his seasonal reappearance, who, whilst a lovely horse, has proven that he is not top, top class. Whilst this could be viewed as the Nicholls horse demonstrating that he needed a run (his first time out form is 1424), it remains a point of consideration.

Kemboy

Kemboy looked to have the world at his feet last season. He ran a lovely race at Leopardstown over Christmas before cruising to victory at Aintree and finally delivering Ruby Walsh to a glorious retirement with a Punchestown triumph over Al Boum Photo. Anticipation for Kemboy’s campaign this season was high and it is therefore difficult to comprehend how the Willie Mullins horse is now as big as 9/1 for the Gold Cup.

It may appear harsh to label Kemboy’s 2019-20 campaign as disappointing. He has not finished far off the victor in both of his outings, but has twice been beaten by Delta Work and lost a bit of the sparkle which made Walsh’s final race so special. Add this to the chaos surrounding Kemboy’s Supreme Racing Club ownership and his recent loss of lustre becomes more understandable.

On top of Kemboy’s form this season, concerns remain over whether he is capable of producing his best at Cheltenham. The Mullins horse has made appearances at three festivals: after finishing fifth in a Neptune and fourth in a below par JLT (won by Shattered Love, who is 1/12 since), his appearance in last year’s Gold Cup evoked so many bad memories that Kemboy threw David Mullins off at the first fence rather than experience the ordeal again.

These concerns can be complemented by a critical assessment of Kemboy’s form last year. His Aintree performance was undoubtedly the visual highlight of his season, putting nine lengths between himself and Clan Des Obeaux. However, it should be remembered that Kemboy had decided he deserved a rest before the Grand National Festival when unseating in the Gold Cup and so turned up at Aintree fresh; this was in stark contrast to Clan Des Obeaux, who wheezed over the line at Prestbury Park and arrived in Liverpool looking as though Paul Nicholls had suddenly decided to tighten the pursestrings and order his horses to make their own way to the track. Whilst the same cannot be said for Kemboy’s defeat of Al Boum Photo (as noted above), there are certainly alternative angles from which to assess his form from last year.

Presenting Percy

I have nothing against a bet from the heart – in fact, I’ve had several girls call me out for showing more love towards Cue Card than I ever have for them (and who could blame me - he never complained that I had eyes for other horses or that I struggled to cook a poached egg).

Unfortunately, that’s all a bet for Presenting Percy can be. His preparation for last year’s Gold Cup was as bad as Andy Ruiz Jr’s ahead of his rematch with Anthony Joshua (allegedly) and he performed as lethargically, coming home in eighth despite starting as the (ridiculously short) 10/3 favourite.

God knows what happens at Pat Kelly’s yard (or even where it is), but it seems like Percy has continued to enjoy himself since last year’s Festival – he has finished third, fifth and third in his races since the Gold Cup, travelling well in the Irish equivalent at the Dublin Racing Festival before fading like he’d spent the previous evening tucking in to a curry after watching Honeysuckle win the Champion Hurdle.

After his RSA victory, Presenting Percy looked like he could have been one of the most brilliant staying chasers of recent years. However, since then, the mystery around the horse has transformed from endearingly intriguing into frustrating inconsistency.  Percy could well turn up at Cheltenham and return to his previous best, but supporting him on this basis is essentially supporting him out of loyalty and hope. 

Back in his stable, Pat Kelly and Presenting Percy will get out their magic eight ball ahead of the pre-race parade and give it a shake to see how he should run - fingers crossed we get a definitive answer this time.

Conclusion

The Gold Cup is going to be a fantastic race. In truth, this was an exceptionally difficult piece to write, as the main contenders are all brilliant horses who have far more positives than negatives about them. However, I hope that this has highlighted some of the potential frailties in those at the head of the market and made your analysis easier. I am also fully aware that some may disagree with my negative approach to these horses and so I would love to discuss this further – the debate before a race is arguably the best thing about this sport besides the event itself!

[shanroeform]

Poking Holes: An Alternative Champion Chase Preview

Common Sense Media’s review of “The Expendables” could just as easily have been the Racing Post’s report of the 2019 Champion Hurdle: “The advertising materials … carry just the right kind of gleeful, confident attitude -- but sadly, Stallone's actual movie is a giant mess and a wasted opportunity.” Last year, we saw an all-star line-up of Buveur D’air, Apple’s Jade and Laurina head to post in what promised to be an electric and memorable race. However, despite the stellar cast and epic trailers leading to predictions that this movie would top countless “Best of 2019” lists, the performance itself received poor reviews and barely merited a mention at the end of season awards, salvaged only by a brilliant performance from Espoir D’Allen as Best Supporting Actor. It was “The Expendables” filmed at Prestbury Park, with explosions at inopportune times unfortunately serving only to weaken the spectacle.  

Like Sylvester Stallone’s film, the show now returns for a sequel with a bigger budget. However, in an attempt to avoid the mistakes of the past, this year’s edition comes with a revitalised cast and a re-brand: welcome to the 2020 Champion Chase.

It is difficult to escape the echoes of the 2019 Champion Hurdle when looking over this race. Altior plays the role of Buveur D’air, the Nicky Henderson star who has won the race for two consecutive years and who was made to work extremely hard to retain his title last season before facing setbacks this term. Defi Du Seuil is Apple’s Jade, a previously excellent juvenile wearing the colours of a mammoth racing operation whose pre-season Festival target has changed following a string of fantastic performances. The formidable line-up is completed by Chacun Pour Soi fulfilling the character of Laurina, the Willie Mullins hype horse who dazzled in novice company last year and will be backed as much on potential as on previous performances.

On paper, this is the most competitive Champion Chase in recent years. However, as last year’s Champion Hurdle shows, hype does not necessarily translate into a stunning race and, as such, there is always an opportunity to look critically at such a cast and consider whether the director, instead of using an enthralling script. is relying on star power to draw in an audience.

This article attempts to poke holes in the big three. It is not necessarily done with the intention of suggesting that none of them can win this race, but rather an effort to consider the race from an alternative angle in the hope that this provides some illumination for those unable to split these three wonderful horses.

Altior

Altior is the (twice) reigning champion who has never been beaten over this distance and who has won at the Festival for the last four years. It’s impressive that he’s even raced at four consecutive Festivals, let alone come home victorious at each of them.

However, last year’s Champion Chase victory saw Altior look more vulnerable than he ever had before, with Sceau Royal heading him at the final fence before Nico De Boinville galvanised the champion and we saw his familiar freakish sprint up the hill. This gave many people the belief that Altior needed further, with questions arising as to whether he would retain his speed going in to this season. Sights were set on a King George appearance before a potential tilt at the Gold Cup.

That step up in trip saw Altior meet Cyrname in a fantastic race which unfortunately left its mark on both horses. It was the mid-afternoon snack which accidentally developed into a full-on gorge and ruined the fancy three course meal for which you’d had reservations for months. Altior missed the King George completely and did not race until the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury earlier this month, whilst Cyrname made the meal but spent the majority of it in the bathroom and seemed to suffer flashbacks when struggling back at Ascot this weekend.

It is unlikely that Altior is still feeling the effects of his battle with Cyrname following a prolonged rest and reappearance victory, and the physical impact of it should not therefore hugely affect your Champion Chase analysis. However, the Ascot race has symbolic importance as demolishing the aura of invincibility which surrounded Altior – it killed the line of thought which held that, however much trouble Henderson’s horse appeared to be, he would sprint his way out of it.

It was this crack which, during Altior’s reappearance in the Game Spirit, led to an even greater increase in heart rate when we saw De Boinville shake him up after the second last. In fairness, after he jumped the final fence, Altior flew up the run in in customary style and never looked in any trouble once he hit the front (despite ITV commentary suggesting that he was “holding on”). However, that was against Sceau Royal, an admirable horse but one who is without a win this season, and Dynamite Dollars, who was making his seasonal reappearance. Against stiffer, speedier competition, such doubts may remain – I will be leaving my FitBit off during the race, in any event.

Sceau Royal was also third in Altior’s Champion Chase victory last season, finishing only 3.5L behind Alan King’s horse, and this proximity could raise further questions about the strength of Altior’s recent two mile form. Second in the race was Politologue, who has not won since November 2018 and yet who got to within 1.75L of the champion, the closest any horse has come to him by some way at the Festival. Whilst terrific horses who rightly have a place in the racing public’s affections, they are to Altior what Courteeners are to Oasis – highly enjoyable in their own class, but only worthy of a supporting role if they were to play at the same venue as the big guns. That the pair got as close as they did to Altior could raise serious concerns, especially as Henderson’s horse had enjoyed a perfect preparation.

In contrast, Altior’s preparation for this season’s race has been more akin to your flaky friend who goes big on the first night of a holiday before leaving the bar at 11 every evening afterwards. He hit the wall against Cyrname first time out in a race which he was clearly not prepared for, spewing his donner kebab all over De Boinville on the way back to the stables. Since then, he has bought tickets for several club nights across Magaluf before dropping out during pre-drinks with a variety of excuses, only to tell the lads at breakfast the following day that he really wished he’d come and would definitely be out tonight. Admittedly, a truncated preparation served Altior well when he demolished Min in the 2018 edition of this race; however, off the back of last year’s showing, it certainly does nothing for the champion’s appeal.

There are also slight question marks over Altior’s jumping. He has always jumped big, looking spectacular but costing himself a bit of time in the air which his remarkable ground speed has compensated for. This was again the case at Newbury last time out, but, just as in previous years, it did not hinder his cause against clearly inferior horses. However, in his race against Cyrname, Altior’s jumping was not as slick as his rival’s and it was one factor (of many) in his defeat at the hands of a high-class opponent. Chucked in against the likes of Chacun Pour Soi and Defi Du Seuil, both of whom are dart-like at their fences, could we once again see Altior’s aesthetically pleasing showjumping style taken down by sharper, slicker leaps?

Defi Du Seuil

Defi Du Seuil has looked fantastic this season. He has jumped and travelled beautifully, claiming two Grade Ones and a Grade Two in a fashion impressive enough to persuade Phillip Hobbs to re-route him from his pre-season target of the Ryanair Chase. The JP McManus gelding has Festival form, winning last season’s JLT Novice Chase after cruising to the 2017 Triumph Hurdle. And yet - questions can still be asked.

In taking December’s Tingle Creek at Sandown, Defi Du Seuil was run very close by Un De Sceaux and Waiting Patiently, finishing ahead by a neck and a length respectively. This was great renewal from a spectator’s perspective, but the form can be viewed critically if you squint. Waiting Patiently is a horse who stays – he ran in last season’s King George and previously won the Ascot Chase over two miles and five furlongs. Add this to the fact that he was making his seasonal reappearance and had not won a race since February 2018, and it is enough to bring a hint of scepticism into the post-race analysis (let’s not mention that Waiting Patiently looked like he probably would have won had the race been half a furlong longer).

Whilst Defi comprehensively confirmed the form with Un De Sceaux next time out at Ascot, it is still fair to query how valuable of a form line the 12-year-old Willie Mullins horse is going in to Cheltenham. The Closutton team expressed surprise at how their veteran had performed at Ascot, with Mullins going as far to say that, whilst he “thought the winner had improved hugely”, he “was disappointed in my fella”. Even if Un De Sceaux had performed to his current peak, it has to be remembered that he is now 12 – as good as Arnold Schwarzenegger looks today, he still cannot lift the weights that he used to. On top of this, it should be remembered that Altior experienced no difficulty when dispatching a younger version of the Mullins horse in last season’s Tingle Creek.

Even Defi Du Seuil’s novice chase campaign could be looked at somewhat critically through a Champion Chase sized lense. Hobbs’ horse routinely beat horses over around two and half miles who subsequently demonstrated that they were better suited to longer trips – he beat future RSA winner Topofthegame at Exeter, before twice dispatching a Lostintranslation who went on to claim a three mile Grade One at Aintree before winning this year’s Betfair Chase. With this in mind, alongside the potential flaws in his two mile form this season, questions over whether Defi Du Seuil has the speed for a two mile Champion Chase could still be warranted.

If this makes you nervous, I’ve not even mentioned that Defi Du Seuil was beaten by Chacun Pour Soi over two miles at Punchestown last season. If you combine this with the knowledge that he was comfortably beaten on his only other two mile start last term (finishing last of five in a Grade Two at Cheltenham won by Lalor), his “rock solid” form starts to look a little wobblier. Of course, Defi had excuses on both of these runs: his Punchestown showing came at the end of a long, hard season in which Barry Geraghty had galvanised him to win some gruelling races, whilst his defeat at Prestbury Park was his seasonal reappearance after a horrible campaign the season before. Still, they are enough to make you think.

Chacun Pour Soi

Chacun Pour Soi was a brilliant winner of the aforementioned Punchestown Festival race last season, toppling two Cheltenham Festival winners in Defi Du Seuil and Duc Des Genievres on only his second chase start. He also boasts arguably the best piece of form this year going into the Champion Chase, having recently seen off Min at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Despite this, it could still be argued that Chacun Pour Soi has something to prove. As suggested earlier, there are question marks over his Punchestown form – you could almost compare him to Edge cashing in his Money In The Bank briefcase over a bruised and battered John Cena as he caught Defi Du Seuil coming off the back of a huge Cheltenham Festival effort. The huge distance of roughly 20L back to Duc Des Genievres can also be read sceptically; Chacun Pour Soi’s stablemate was fortunate to run in an Arkle Chase as weak as my resistance when asked if I want to go large at McDonald’s, as his form this season (482F) suggests.

Following this Punchestown performance, Chacun carried a huge amount of hype into the season. Ruby Walsh highlighted him as the horse he wished he was still around to ride, Patrick Mullins insisted on telling everyone who would listen that Robbie Power had only done a half-speed on him when beating Defi (disclaimer: this may be an exaggeration) and Nicky Henderson confirmed that Altior had a Chacun Pour Soi poster on his stable wall (disclaimer: this is definitely an exaggeration).

Despite this, Mullins’ horse was beaten by A Plus Tard in what can only be seen as a rather large disappointment. Whilst Henry De Bromhead’s horse was a hugely exciting winner at the Festival last season, this was over two and a half miles on bog-like ground and A Plus Tard has given every indication that he is better suited to trips beyond the minimum. He was raced over three miles at the Punchestown Festival last season, and indeed this defeat of Chacun Pour Soi was only his second attempt over two miles. A study of A Plus Tard’s first attempt over two miles throws up even more questions over this piece of form – he was downed by Ballyoisin on his previous start, a horse who had finished last of six in a Tipperary race before seeing off A Plus Tard and who, with all due respect, a Cheltenham Festival winner should be cruising past like a wheelie bin caught up in Storm Dennis, no matter how long he has been off the track.

Chacun Pour Soi’s defeat at the hands of A Plus Tard may be put down to a lack of race fitness – it was his seasonal reappearance and, at the time, Willie Mullins was not firing in the fashion we have become accustomed to. However, it could also be ascribed to being outstayed by a horse who relishes a battle. This is a concerning thought when, come March, it is more than likely that Paul Townend will be staring up the Cheltenham hill alongside two horses who have previously demonstrated a tremendous appetite for such a task.

This leads us into a discussion of Chacun Pour Soi’s defeat of Min. This was a race which failed to live up to its tremendous billing, with Cilaos Emery (who had previously dispatched Ballyoisin and who now looks a live Champion Hurdle contender) falling before he had an opportunity to become a third wheel in his stablemates’ duel and A Plus Tard not even getting that far. Admittedly, the battle between Chacun and Min was highly entertaining and the younger horse rightly shortened in the Champion Chase betting following his victory. However, whilst in fairness this race was run at a fierce pace, Chacun Pour Soi did not seem to find much coming to the finish – he outpaced Min, a horse now arguably more suited to two and a half miles, coming around the bend and looked as though he would quickly accelerate away like a true superstar. Whilst Chacun never looked in danger, he did struggle to extend the gap following his breakaway, suggesting that the strong gallop the pair had set throughout the race had potentially sapped his finishing speed. It may be the case that the Mullins team decide to produce Chacun Pour Soi later in the race to preserve this burst at Cheltenham. However, there is no guarantee that Chacun’s rivals will be willing to wait for him to make his move before playing their own cards; indeed, with horses who have proven themselves able to withstand a prolonged finish to a race, this seems rather unlikely, and it is therefore fair to question whether the Willie Mullins eight-year-old will be able to maintain his finishing speed when other horses have the pace and stamina to go with him up the hill following a race run at an electric gallop.

This question mark is furthered by Chacun Pour Soi’s lack of Cheltenham experience. He has never run at Prestbury Park and it remains to be seen how he will handle the hill, the undulations, the strong pace forced by multiple opponents and the fervent atmosphere produced by the biggest racing crowds of the season. Whereas Altior and Lostintranslation have proved themselves under the glare of Cleeve Hill on multiple occasions, it remains to be seen whether Chacun Pour Soi will withstand the new tests which will be foisted upon him. It must be remembered that, for all his clear ability, he has had only four chase starts (and five career runs in total) and he may simply find the Festival to be a case of too much, too son.

Finally, it has to be mentioned that Willie Mullins has never won a Champion Chase. I am not personally persuaded by this statistic – the same was said about the Gold Cup before Al Boum Photo stormed to victory last season, and if you are seriously suggesting that a multiple Champion Trainer is unable to train a two mile chaser then I’m either missing the sarcasm or you probably shouldn’t be allowed unrestricted access to a gambling account. However, it is worth flagging this if just for superstitious reasons: in a race where it’s hard to split the big three and you’re left to pick at hairs, it may be this which puts you off (but it could just as easily be that you convince yourself Paul Townend looks a bit peaky on ITV that morning).

Conclusion

This piece is not to say that none of these horses can win the race – in fact, I would be surprised if they didn’t all fill the frame provided they all jump round. However, the purpose of this article is to look at the race from an alternative angle and show where the frailties of each horse lie in the hope that this may make someone’s decision easier. I love all three horses and I cannot wait to see this race – I’m now off to attempt to wash the dirt from my fingernails and the guilt from my conscience after scrabbling around on the floor for something to throw at each of these brilliant beasts.

[shanroeform]

Thomas? Champion Hurdle 2020 Preview

Whilst last year’s Champion Hurdle did not exactly go according to plan, a simple comparison graph of excitement levels between today and this time last season would leave an uninitiated onlooker wondering what on earth has changed in such a short space of time. Unfortunately, a year is a long time in racing. Last year’s spectacular winner, Espoir D’Allen, is horribly no longer with us; the same owner’s Buveur D’Air has been forced out for the season with a freak injury; Apple’s Jade no longer looks like the formidable mare who racked up winter victory after victory; and Laurina, sent over hurdles, has left some wondering whether she was ever worthy of the hype bestowed upon her.

Indeed, the reality of the 2020 Champion Hurdle looks even bleaker when compared to expectations at the start of this season. Whilst we awaited the returns of the stars above, we also got extremely over-excited at the likes of Klassical Dream, Saldier and City Island being added into this mixture. With the amount of antepost bets which must be down the drain already, it seems like the only certainty in this year’s renewal of the race is that the bookies will come out on top.

In truth, last year’s Champion Hurdle was an anomaly in recent times. The two years prior to it were weak renewals, with Buveur D’Air going off 4/6 favourite in 2018 ahead of a Faugheen ostensibly in decline (having been pulled up in the Ryanair Hurdle and beaten by Supasundae in the Irish equivalent) and a Melon who had won just once, against Coquin Mans, all season. 2017 was intriguing more out of uncertainty than quality, with Yanworth going off 2/1 favourite and Buveur D’Air, who had begun the season chasing and having had just one hurdle race that season, winning cosily from the admirable My Tent Or Yours.

However, even in the context of these weak fields, the 2020 Champion Hurdle still looks like the cup of tea you have attempted to make after stumbling in from a night out and filling the mug with cold tap water. The current 3/1 favourite is Epatante, who flopped on her sole Cheltenham start (last year’s Mares’ Novice Hurdle), has had most of her success on flat tracks and whose best piece of form is an (admittedly impressive) five length beating of a Silver Streak who was running on soft ground despite only bringing his astroturf trainers.

Pentland Hills is second favourite with those firms not offering non-runner no bet at a best price of 5/1 and, with all due respect, if you back him then on your way back from the bookies please call into your nearest A&E and ask for a CT scan for that bump you must have suffered. He won a weak Triumph Hurdle last season which was extremely hollow after the awful loss of Sir Erec, and the second, third and fourth from that race have together won just two of 16 races since. Admittedly, his win against Fakir D’oudairies at Aintree was solid; however, since then he has been beaten comprehensively in a sub-standard (even in the context of a race won by Brain Power, My Tent Or Yours and The New One in recent years) International Hurdle at Cheltenham and was overtaken at the post by a staying on Ballyandy at Haydock last time out.

Honeysuckle is available at 9/2 with firms offering NRNB (elsewhere she’s available at 10/1). Some have been sceptical of this mare after her performance at Leopardstown but, in fairness, she rallied nicely after a mistake at the last and has the stamina to stay on up the hill. However, the proximity of Darver Star and Petit Mouchoir would give even the most ardent of anthophiles some cause for concern. Without wanting to admit it, their hedges also probably contain concerns that four of her six wins have come at Fairyhouse, a track about as similar to Cheltenham as bourbons are to custard creams. And this is all without even mentioning that she might not even run!

Benie Des Dieux is next in the betting at a best priced 7/1 (9/4 NRNB) but looks highly unlikely to run. The Mares’ and Stayers’ Hurdles appears better suited to her and Rich Ricci has Sharjah to run here.

Sharjah himself is a horse I love – I think he’s underrated despite being a three time Grade One winner and would be delighted to see him hose up. At 14/1, you’d have to consider him if the ground comes up good, but he does appear to be dependent on this factor (ironically his only win on soft came at the Galway Festival in August) and he’s thrown in two howlers this season which would be enough to make Ricci fans nervous. The days of the Ruby Tuesday guarantee look a long way away.

The horses above, then, look like the flakiest five-a-side team in history and you know that there’s a huge chance you’re going to end up paying at least double subs if you put your trust in them. As a result, this is a race to take a big swing at.

Ballyandy is a best priced 25/1, and, whilst scepticism towards him is justified, he’s worth at least the attention you’d no doubt give to a Dixy Chicken on the walk home, no matter how much contempt you’d look with in the cold light of day. Circumstances change – just as post-pint you does not reflect who your true personality, neither does the 2020 Champion Hurdle resemble the race won in the past decade by Annie Power, Faugheen and Hurricane Fly. Ballyandy’s record in graded hurdles reads 3214364231, whilst his Cheltenham record stands at 11344PP362 (including a half length Coral Cup third carrying 11-7 last season). This is form considerably better than Pentland Hills has ever shown, and indeed Ballyandy has beaten the second favourite both times they have raced this season. He clearly likes it at Cheltenham, seems to be coming back to somewhat near his peak after a lean period in which he was sent chasing and handicap hurdling carrying big weights. It would not surprise me to see him run into a place at worse.

Supasundae ran well at the Dublin Racing Festival, especially given his well-known issues first time out, and we know he likes Cheltenham having won a Coral Cup and finished second in a Stayers’ Hurdle. Whilst he has been consistently beaten over two miles, it has generally been by classy animals such as Buveur D’air and Apple’s Jade in their pomp and it does not look as though there is anything near their quality in this race. Whilst there are certainly reasons to back him at his current price of 20/1, I would be slightly put off by his age (he is 10 now) and the worry that he may still not be at peak fitness on only his second run this season.

Petit Mouchoir is another one who falls into the Supasundae category of exposed yet admirable horses. He has been resurgent this season, with form reading 223 in three Grade 1 races. He has a strong record over two miles at Cheltenham, finishing 3rd in both a Supreme and a Champion Hurdle, and the stronger stamina test posed by Prestbury Park in comparison to Leopardstown could be helpful a horse who ran in the Stayers’ Hurdle last season.

As much as I love these horses, I also love unexposed horses who have shown flashes of potential and signs that they will grab me by the scruff of my parka and hurl me over the edge of the cliff with them. It is for this reason that I have stuck Thomas Darby into my passenger seat and set the Sat Nav to Calais.

Olly Murphy, Thomas Darby’s trainer, is hitting form at a key point of the season. He has a 33% strike rate in the last 14 days (6/18) compared to 18% over the whole year. This includes the trainer’s first Grade One victory, with Itchy Feet so bored by the ease of his victory in the Scilly Isles at Sandown that he decided to hurl himself through some fences to make the most of his day out.

Whilst Thomas Darby struggled when sent chasing at the start of this season, finishing second behind Maire Banrigh and third behind Master Tommytucker, he came back to form with a victory in a Grade Three Ascot handicap hurdle carrying top weight which was more comfortable than the one length margin suggests. He travelled enthusiastically before demonstrating a great attitude to stay on over a trip longer than the Champion Hurdle distance (2m 3f) on heavy ground. His jumping when the pace kicked up towards the end of the race was eye-catching and sixth in that race was Pic D’orhy, who, as we know, has just won the Betfair Hurdle carrying 11-5.

As a novice hurdler last season, Thomas Darby ran a great race to finish second in the Supreme behind the very impressive Klassical Dream (who has unfortunately disappointed this season). This was his second showing at the track following a quiet thumping of Elixir De Nutz in a maiden. Elixir De Nutz, of course, proceeded to win the Grade One Tolworth Hurdle later than season, although he again has admittedly not displayed anywhere near that form this season.

There are certainly negatives to throw at this horse (although I am doing my best to drown those out by chanting a makeshift Yaya-Kolo tune containing Thomas Darby and Olly Murphy). His form this season has not been fantastic, he could be accused of needing softer ground to show his best, and the form of his novice campaign looks slightly creaky after his crop’s performances this season. However, there are also reasons to dodge these sticks: he clearly did not take to chasing, his Cheltenham defeat of Elixir De Nutz came on good ground, and the likes of Klassical Dream have patently not given their true running this season.

Other issues include uncertainty as to whether his regular jockey, Richard Johnson, will be around to ride him at Cheltenham and even whether he will target this race (with the County Hurdle also an option). However, he has shown enough to suck me in at 20/1 in the hope that he lives up to some of his potential on a track which suits him in a race in which you certainly do not require a pair of Cheltenham binoculars to see the holes.