nixonthedark

[nixonthedark]

Trump by 10m

Prediction. Trump Win by 10,000,000 Votes

by Nixon the Dark

I know there's a few days left, but I'll predict and risk: Trump wins popular vote by 10,000,000. I see his support in subtle ways on Twitter. And it’s huge despite Twitter doing everything it can to suppress that idea from getting out.

I don't trust Twitter polls. But I believe anecdotal Twitter comments are a barometer of truth. They are resistant to "comm-botification" (commodified bots). They have the feel of conversation. And they take a bunch of different forms. If they are mimetic (viral), they have the same message, but no two are alike. They're phrased uniquely.

On political Twitter, the vast majority of voting anecdotes go one direction: people who didn't vote Trump in 2016 but will vote for him now.

By a factor of at least 50 to 1, I see these comments as opposed to the reverse (people who voted for Trump in 2016 but now will vote for Biden). And they come in all varieties. It is not just "I voted against Trump in 2016, I'm voting for him now." Commenters only occasionally refer to themselves. As often, they also mention their relatives, neighbors, coworkers, etc. (people who may not be on Twitter).

Are these a reliable barometer? Yes.

Here was my clincher. In early October, a scientist (definitely not a conservative) with 1.2m followers recently tweeted that his life-long Republican relative decided to vote for Biden. Whenever I see these comments, and I looked a lot of places for them, I ready every comment available.

One of the reply comments caught on: this scientist was fishing for replies of agreement ("low key Biden polling"). Why? Because people copy each other. We’re mimetic. If we hear about a Trump defector, and we are one, we chime in. How could we not? Trump is the most hated president since Lincoln and his haters online have no fear of repercussion. So if Twitter was filled with Trump defectors, his is how you’d find them. Tease them out via mimicry.

There were a few. Obviously. But only a few? This guy has 1.2m followers and it's three weeks to the election! What are these people waiting for? The Trump-converted folks, the ones who do fear social repercussion, have not been shy about sharing their anecdotes.

The same people who have been talking shit about Trump on Twitter non-stop for 5 years couldn't be bothered to share their own stories of people who they also know who abandoned Trump since 2016? Why not? Where is the uncertain suburban housewife or girlfriend?  Is she keeping quiet? Why doesn’t this anecdote go viral?

Because Trump is so hated by Twitter users, who are commenting and saying all manner of mean things about him. The defector is always welcome when he or she does share their story. Welcome with open arms.

But in fairness to them, suppose they are shy. They’re voting for Biden. There’s no enthusiasm for him. It is a little embarrassing. I have no doubt there are some Trump defectors who are keeping quiet. But why aren’t they represented as “my wife” or “my husband” by some other Twitter user? There are. But it’s always only a handful among thousands of comments.

If this scientist, among the many other parts of anti-Trump Twitter I’ve visited, can’t generate a viral anecdote, it doesn’t exist. Keep in mind, Twitter is an information war battlefield filled with lies and truths. Despite that, these Trump haters, who would do anything to get him out of office, can’t even be bothered to simply make up fake Trump defectors. There is no army of anecdote Twitter bots sharing their stories of leaving Trump.

Trump lovers, en masse, are not creating false local anecdotes by the thousands. And Trump haters aren't either. This phenomenon, the impulse to echo an anecdote, is very “lie resistant.”

Obviously, much of the scientist's thread was filled with "liar" memes (pro-Trump people saying the Trump defector comment was a lie) and many varied strains of Trump hate. Also, even worse for Biden, plenty of the comments again told the opposite story. The comment thread designed to trigger people to come out of the woodwork to proclaim they’ve walked away from Trump did the opposite. Trump won the thread by about 2-to-1.

He wins most such threads. Only on a few comment threads I found specifically by partisans bragging about Trump defection, did Biden win the anecdote battle. On the rest, Trump won bigly.

The people who hate Trump say things like "He'll finally lose" "landslide Biden" "worst thing for our country" etc. But they don’t mimic the anecdote. In other words, the people who proudly proclaim Biden will win never volunteer anecdotes about voters they know. They reflect their Trump hatred/Biden optimism by point to polling data. And think that their own echo chamber of Trump hate confirms the polling.

Yes, this is unscientific. It’s a hunch. But to accept that there may be some nefarious information war afoot, I’ll concede there’s a few pro-Trump bots making all these unique comments. If you cut the number in half, Trump converts outnumber Trump defectors by 25 to 1.

In my personal life, people I know, unrelated to anything on Twitter, including myself, Trump is net 15 votes ahead. Of everyone I know and speak to anecdotally, I fit this profile. I was anti-Trump in 2016. Pro-Trump now. I know several others like me and I do not have a single known Trump defector in my social circle. I know plenty of people that hated him in 2016 and hate him now. Nobody who loved him then and hate him now.

Other supporting reasons.

Separate twitter anecdotes that don't qualify as polling but serve similar purpose: many anonymous/disaffected liberals now stating the obvious, that their vocal minority is out of control with rioting and terrorism. And as many of us notice, the vocal Dems are now at Nazi-level open hatred and disgust.

Other observations in support of this prediction.

The weekend of October 10, I watched a handful of Joe's recent campaign stops. Turned the sound down and fast-forwarded through them. Only looked for one thing: citizen supporters. I don't see them. He gave a recent speech in an AZ or NM shopping plaza. Based on what was on-screen, there were ten times as many handlers, media, and photo-op human props (like a kid wearing a sombrero doing a lasso trick) as citizen supporters. The attendance is so sparse and the energy so lifeless, that my lying eyes tell me the general public doesn't care, at all, about Joe.

If there were throngs of people, the cameras would show them, even if doing so had a "superspreader" implication. They know the value of seeing energy and excitement for the candidate is way more important than looking like COVID hypocrites. The benefit drastically outweighs the cost, especially considering rank hypocrisy has never stopped the Left before. So there's no basis to assume thousands of people came to hear him speak. He gets "dozens".

The counterargument: Biden supporters are enthusiastic, but respect the danger of COVID and are staying indoors. If so, the media would reflect the enthusiasm in other ways. I'm exposed to a lot happening on the left. I NEVER see anything about a Biden speech go viral in a good (for him) way. CNN/MSNBC kiss Kamala's ass and are pro-Biden, but do they ever even show clips of Biden making a compelling point in a campaign speech?

Are the MSM airwaves dominated by Biden on the stump? Barely. You have to look for his speeches. MSM’s coverage ranking: 1. about Trump, 2. about Biden (positive only), 3. about Kamala, and finally, 4. (almost never) coverage of Biden. They had to stop showing coverage of Trump because it was persuading away too many of their viewers. The difference between coverage about and coverage of is massive.

If there was anything worthwhile coming from Joe's mouth, it would dominate the MSM and YouTube would shove it down my throat. Instead, they hide it. It is a hollow coalition. I see about 50,000 voting for Joe Biden. About 30,000,000 will vote against Trump. And another 20,000,000 will vote Democrat because they always do. And maybe 10,000,000 dead people also vote Biden.

Scott Adams recently noted that every metric that can be rigged favors Biden and every metric that can't be rigged favors Trump. I would add: all the reasons suggesting a Biden win are abstract. All the reasons suggesting a Trump win are tangible.

Abstract: Leftists say Trump will lose, DUH, because he's a terrorist, racist, incompetent, etc. Abstract: other random people on twitter say they hate Trump. Abstract: "look at the polls." Abstract: MSM's eternal "walls are closing in" narrative about Trump.

Tangible: 10x as many Trump parades around the country as Biden (all better attended). Tangible: the above-referenced anecdotes (25x over the reverse). Tangible: massive red shift in voter registrations all over the place. Tangible: Trump's campaign has been knocking on doors for over a year while Biden's team has just started. Tangible: huge numbers of Trump trolls frequently showing up at Biden events. Tangible: Warren, Dr. Jill, Bernie, etc., speaking to miniscule crowds while WalkAway crowds are massive. Tangible: the Reign of Terror by the hard-left scaring ordinary citizens into silence or preference falsification ("Yes, I'm voting for Biden, please don't murder me too").

I still allow that my own bubble may be shielding me from Biden supporters despite my efforts. Thus, I keep looking. I like the comedy of Trump winning big electoral and losing by 20,000,000. But I suspect the citizens in these blue enclaves will finally let the Dems have it.

There are several massive Trump gatherings in California, of all places. Thousands of citizens, in the bluest of blue states, marching just to show love for Trump. They weren't there to see Don Jr. or Pence or some surrogate. Just Trump love. Even though for many their votes won’t count electorally. But they’ll pull the lever for him anyway.

There were two big Trump sign in my area (a nice neighborhood). Both defaced. A Denver news channel hired someone to murder a Trump supporter on October 10. Supporters know they're at personal risk in any Trump gathering, yet they go anyway. Brings tears to my eyes. If this is the visual for "out of the closet" Trump support, the closeted Trump support is also massive, and much bigger than 2016.

Not predicting the deepest blue states go red. But the eye test tells me that even these states will have way more red turnout than usual.

I helped one of my non-voting friends register. He wants to vote for Trump just as a middle finger to LeBron for shoving leftist garbage down his throat as an NBA fan.

The curious silences.

First, Obama. He gave a ho-hum Zoom speech at the convention. To my knowledge, he hasn't given any big speeches since. If he has, the MSM isn't covering it. There are three weeks left and he's MIA? Extremely suspicious. Fear of "superspreader" stigma is not enough of a reason for him to be so quiet.

Second, no Clintons? A few sound bits and quotes and that's it. They are really old. Maybe legit COVID risk. And being so unpopular, there are at least real reasons for them to not make big appearances. 

Third, what about celebrities? I understand they can't do huge, "star-studded" concerts with COVID. But nothing is stopping them from putting on a show or grabbing headlines. Yet they're quieter than usual. I don't think it's because they finally, humbly, realized they are doing more harm than good.

From all I observe, the only people really campaigning for Joe and Kamala are Joe and Kamala (plus some of their foot soldiers like Bernie, Liz Warren, Peter Mayor). It's rather quiet on the Left establishment front. They've been talking about how awful Trump is for 5 years. But now, when it matters the most, they aren't really acting like it the way they usually do.

I expect in the last couple weeks we'll see some big names on the stump. But why the wait? Isn't it crunch time already? Trump is the most hated Republican by their establishment ever. And it's not even close. Yet aside from pundits, NBA/SNL/Colbert/etc., and people talking shit on twitter/podcasts, it's like the big names are keeping a low profile. The dark money is flowing big time, and big tech is doing it's thing. But I see none of the normal "final push" noise you expect to see.

As of October 29,2020, more celebrities have come out to campaign. Obviously. But the energy isn’t quite there. At all.

Finally.

There are other metrics working in Trump’s favor. College campuses are a ghost town. There will not be the normal election day parties at the polls. College kids overwhelmingly vote liberal. But they don’t overwhelmingly vote. If not at college, where guys can possibly use a trip to the polls as an opportunity to get laid, he probably won’t do the same from his high school bedroom. Will 19-year-old girls be rushing to the polls to yank a lever for Joe Biden?

Conclusion.

Trump will be re-elected. Trump will win the popular vote. Trump will win it by a shocking margin. Shocking to people who put their faith only in their own hatred of him and the polls constructed by people with equivalent hatred.

Donald Trump’s initial nomination as the Republican candidate in 2016 had more impact on America than the prior four presidencies combined. His initial victory had more impact than the four before that. His full first term had more impact than the four before that. His legacy is already, in one term, on par with that of Franklin Roosevelt.

Joe Biden campaigned like he was running for Mayor of Scranton, PA. Donald Trump campaigned like he was running for President against Abraham Lincoln. The result on Tuesday will reflect that, but not as much as it should. Barring tragedy, it will take at least 10 years from the date he leaves office before it becomes clear that he should have won by 100,000,000.