micksquill

[micksquill]

2019 Oscar Predictions

I tried to get a jumpstart on my prediction prep this year and assembled my list shortly after the Globes only to forget it on my work computer before the long weekend. So...I’m winging it this year! Let’s goooooooo!!!

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali - Green Book

Timothée Chalamet - Beautiful Boy

Sam Elliot - A Star is Born

Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman

In Consideration: Sam Rockwell - Vice, Brian Tyree Henry - Widows

If this award covered an actor’s entire year of work instead of a single film, Henry would run away with this in a landslide given his menacing performance in Widows, being a one-scene-wonder in Beale Street and his emotional anchor of a voice portrayal in Spider-Verse (not to mention being the standout in Atlanta’s Robbin’ Season). 

Best Supporting Actress

Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone - The Favourite

Rachel Weisz - The Favourite

Amy Adams - Vice

Claire Foy - First Man

In Consideration - Elizabeth Debicki - Widows

Best Actress

Olivia Coleman - The Favourite

Glenn Close - The Wife

Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Elsie Fisher - Eighth Grade

In Consideration: Viola Davis - Widows, Nicole Kidman - Destroyer, Yalitza Aparicio - Roma, Emily Blunt - Marry Poppins Returns

It may be my personal bias leading to me to include Fisher over some other Oscar stalwarts, but she gave a phenomenal performance in what may be my favorite movie of 2018. 

Best Actor

Christian Bale - Vice

Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody

Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born

Viggo Mortensen - Green Book

Ethan Hawke - First Reformed

In Consideration:  John David Washington - BlacKkKlansman, Lucas Hedges - Boy Erased, Willem Dafoe - At Eternity’s Gate

This may be my toughest call this year. My only locks are Bale, Malek and maybe Viggo (based on the recent hype for Green Book). I’m giving the edge to Hawke getting a nom based on skillfully carrying his entire film. If Washington sneaks in, will he and Denzel be the first father-son duo to score nominations in back to back Oscars?

Best Director

Alfonso Cuarón - Roma

Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born

Barry Jenkins - If Beale Street Could Talk

Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman

Yorgos Lanthamos - The Favourite

In Consideration: Peter Farrelly - Green Book, Damien Chazelle - First Man, Adam McKay - Vice

Oh my god. I just realized that it’s possible this category could have the directors of both Dumb and Dumber To AND Step Brothers.

Best Picture

Roma

A Star Is Born

If Beale Street Could Talk

Bohemian Rhapsody

Green Book

BlacKkKlansman

Black Panther

The Favourite

Eighth Grade

First Man

In Consideration: Vice, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Before the recent award season surges by both Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody, I thought we could have the fewest nominees in the last several years, which would bode well for fan-favorite Black Panther getting recognized. Hopefully it and indie darling Eighth Grade don’t get crowded out. 

And that’s that. Can’t wait until Tuesday to see what all I got wrong!

[micksquill]

2018 Oscar Predictions

I’m back, once again typing into the abyss about who I think the Academy will nominate for some key awards for the upcoming Oscars. The big difference is that this year I’ve actually seen most of the contenders and I’m able to make some better informed decisions than usual. For that, I’d have to thank my beautiful girlfriend. Baby! You are my rock! You bring inspiration to me daily! and Kids, if you’re still awake, Dad says “go to bed” ::Play Off music swells:: Anyway, Let’s get on with the show...

Best Supporting Actor:

Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water

Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project

Armie Hammer - Call Me by Your Name

Woody Harrelson -  Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

In Consideration: Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World), Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes), Rob Morgan (Mudbound)

Not a lot of surprises here. The big question is whether or not Billboards can get two nominees in the same category. Harrelson is probably the best he’s ever been, but so far has been overshadowed by his costars. 

Best Supporting Actress:

Allison Janney - I, Tonya

Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird

Mary J. Blige - Mudbound

Holly Hunter - The Big Sick

Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water

In Consideration: Hong Chau (Downsizing)

Supporting actresses performances have been pretty top heavy this year. The only other contender seems to be Chau, which happens to be the only one of these performances I have not yet seen. 

Best Actress:

Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird

Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water

Margot Robbie - I, Tonya

Jessica Chastain - Molly’s Game

In Consideration: Meryl Streep (The Post), Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World), Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul), Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)

Will excluding Streep be my undoing once again (see: 2014, 2017)? STREEEEEEEEEP!!!

Best Actor:

Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour

Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread

Timothée Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name

Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out

James Franco - The Disaster Artist

In Consideration: Tom Hanks (The Post), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

Ok. This is tough. Will the Academy still recognize Franco given the recent allegations against him? I’ve gone back and forth about this a lot, but decided to ultimately go with my first instinct and leave him in. Hopefully voters will take keep the current climate in mind when making their decision. It’s already a pretty bad look that their reigning best actor is Casey Affleck. 

Best Director:

Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water

Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird

Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk

Jordan Peele - Get Out

In Consideration: Dee Rees (Mudbound), Steven Spielberg (The Post), Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World),  Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)

It would be a crime if Greta Gerwig gets snubbed again. 

Best Picture:

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The Shape of Water

Get Out

Lady Bird

Call Me by Your Name

Dunkirk

I, Tonya

The Post

Mudbound

Phantom Thread

In Consideration: The Disaster Artist, The Florida Project, The Big Sick, Wonder Woman

It was a really solid year for movies and I struggled mightily cutting this list down to just ten. I think the top seven are pretty much locks, but I think there we can see nine or ten nominees again this year. 

[micksquill]

2017 Oscar Predictions

2016 was the year I tried to get back to the Cineplex for more than Sci-fi and superhero fare. As of this writing I’ve seen four of my proposed best picture picks. Not that impressive, I know, but that modest total actually equals the number of nominees I saw prior to the award ceremonies for the last three years combined.  

  Best Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight

Dev Patel – Lion

Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

John Goodman – 10 Cloverfield Lane

In Consideration: Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals), Ben Foster (Hell or High Water), Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)

It’s a very top heavy category this year and was difficult to fill out the bottom. Goodman’s performance was stellar, but with a release date so long ago I feel like it may be lacking the necessary Oscar steam. Some wishful thinking including him here.

  Best Supporting Actress:

Viola Davis – Fences

Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

Naomie Harris – Moonlight

Nicole Kidman – Lion

Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

In Consideration: Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), Molly Shannon (Other People)

In an absolutely stacked category, some may balk at Michelle Williams’s inclusion for a rather brief appearance, but actors have been nominated before with even less screen time (see: Ned Beatty in Network).

  Best Actress:

Emma Stone – La La Land

Amy Adams – Arrival

Natalie Portman – Jackie

Ruth Negga – Loving

Isabelle Huppert – Elle

In Consideration: Annette Benning (20th Century Women), Rebecca Hall (Christine), Meryl Streep (Golden Globes Speech Florence Foster Jenkins)

Both actress categories are murderer’s rows of talent this year. In the actor categories I struggled to fill out the top five; for the actresses it was nearly impossible to decide who to exclude.

  Best Actor:

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea

Denzel Washington – Fences

Ryan Gosling – La La Land

Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

Joel Edgerton – Loving

In Consideration: Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Adam Driver (Paterson)

  Best Director:

Damien Chazelle – La La Land

Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

Denzel Washington – Fences

In Consideration: Jeff Nichols (Loving), Pablo Larrain (Jackie), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)

  Hey Hollywood, maybe try hiring some female directors?

  Best Picture:

Moonlight

La La Land

Manchester by the Sea

Fences

Lion

Arrival

Hidden Figures

20th Century Women

Hell or High Water

Loving

In Consideration: Hacksaw Ridge, Silence, Paterson, Deadpool, Hunt for the Wilderpeople

A lot of quality pictures were released this year. I’m fairly confident in the top six above, but it seems like a year where we will see a full slate of 10 nominees.

[micksquill]

2016 Oscar Predictions

Back again with my annual Oscar post. Last year was my best outing to date, but maybe I can get lucky two years in a row. Once again, these lists are in ordered by descending confidence I have in them actually securing a nod. Here we go!

Best Supporting Actor:

Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight

Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone - Creed

Idris Elba - Beasts of No Nation

Michael Shannon - 99 Homes

Close Call: Christian Bale (The Big Short)

Best Supporting Actress:

Rooney Mara - Carol

Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight

Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs

Rachel McAdams - Spotlight

Close Calls: Helen Mirren (Trumbo), Jane Fonda (Youth)

Best Actress: 

Brie Larson - Room

Cate Blanchett - Carol

Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn

Jennifer Lawrence - Joy

Lily Tomlin - Grandma

Close Call: Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)

Note: Very tough deciding between Tomlin and Rampling. Gave the edge to Tomlin with hopes she gets the missing piece of her EGOT. 

Best Actor:

Leonardo Dicaprio - The Revenant 

Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl

Bryan Cranston - Trumbo

Matt Damon - The Martian

Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs

Close Calls: Michael B Jordan (Creed), Johnny Depp (Black Mass)

Note: Really wanted to go with (where the fuck is) Wallace Michael B Jordan, but have the feeling the academy with the more “Oscar Bait” choice in Fassbender. 

Best Director:

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - The Revenant 

Ridley Scott - The Martian

Todd Haynes - Carol

Tom McCarthy - Spotlight

George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road

Close Calls: Steven Spielberg (Bridge of Spies), JJ Abrams (Star Wars: The Force Awakens), Ryan Coogler (Creed)

Best Picture:

The Revenant 

Spotlight

The Big Short

The Martian

Brooklyn

Carol

Room

Mad Max: Fury Road

Bridge of Spies

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Close Calls: The Danish Girl, Straight Out of Compton, Inside Out, Trumbo, The Hateful Eight, Creed

Note: It’s a long shot, but I’m including Star Wars here for the sole reason that AVATAR was nominated. The new Star Wars installment is not only a better movie than Avatar, but it’s also demolishing Avatar’s box office records. Seriously...AVATAR?!

[micksquill]

2015 Oscar Predictions

Over the last few years, my blog has served the sole purpose of hosting nothing but my annual Oscar nomination guesses. Well, it’s that time of the year and once again I have seen very few of the films that will be nominated. However, last year after not seeing any of the nominees before they were named, I was correct on about 85% of my picks—probably my best result to date. Hopefully my strategy will pay off again. Without further ado, here is my shot in the dark at what and who will be nominated for the Oscar this year. Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons - Whiplash Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher Edward Norton – Birdman Ethan Hawke – Boyhood Robert Duvall – The Judge Close Call: Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice) Best Supporting Actress: Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game Patricia Arquette – Boyhood Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year Emma Stone – Birdman Meryl Streep – Into the Woods Close Calls: Naomi Watts (St. Vincent), Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer) Best Actress: Julianne Moore – Still Alice Reese Witherspoon – Wild Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night Close Call: Jennifer Aniston (Cake) Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game David Oyelowo – Selma Michael Keaton – Birdman Steve Carell – Foxcatcher Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything Close Calls: Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler) Best Director: Richard Linklater – Boyhood Ava DuVernay – Selma Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman David Fincher – Gone Girl Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel Close Calls: Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game), Christopher Nolan (Interstellar), Angelina Jolie (Unbroken) Best Picture: Boyhood Selma The Imitation Game Birdman The Theory of Everything Foxcatcher The Grand Budapest Hotel Gone Girl American Sniper Whiplash Close Calls: Unbroken, Interstellar, Inherent Vice, Nightcrawler Since the Academy can name between five and ten best picture nominees I have listed ten here, but I think the top nine will be nominated.

[micksquill]

2014 Oscar Predictions

We are mere hours away from Oscar nominees being announced and you know what that means: it’s time for me to dust of my tumblr for my one and only blog post of the year. I didn't realize until looking at my finished list that I have seen ZERO of the films listed below, so even more so than last year this is a total crapshoot. Last year only about 67% of my guesses were correct. Hopefully I can improve with this year's entry. For what it’s worth, I have ordered each list by the how likely I think each entry is to be nominated.  Here goes nothing...

  Best Supporting Actor:

Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave

Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper – American Hustle

Daniel Bruhl – Rush

  Close Calls: Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street), Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks), James Gandolfini (Enough Said), James Franco (Springbreakers)

  Best Supporting Actress:

Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave

June Squibb – Nebraska

Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine

Julia Roberts – August: Osage County

  Close Calls: Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels’ The Butler), Jennifer Garner (Dallas Buyers Club), Sarah Paulson (12 Years a Slave)

  Best Actress:

Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock – Gravity

Amy Adams – American Hustle

Judi Dench – Philomena

Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks

  Close Calls: Meryl Streep (Being Meryl Streep August: Osage County)

  Best Actor:

Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave

Leonardo Dicaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street

Bruce Dern – Nebraska

Matthew McConughey – Dallas Buyers Club

Joaquin Phoenix – Her

  Close Calls: Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips), Robert Redford (All Is Lost), Oscar Issac (Inside Llewyn Davis), Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler), Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)

  Best Director:

Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave

Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity

David O. Russell – American Hustle

Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips

  Close Calls: Alexander Payne (Nebraska), Joel and Ethan Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis), Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale Station), Jean-Marc Vallee (Dallas Buyers Club)

  Best Picture:

12 Years a Slave

Gravity

American Hustle

The Wolf of Wall Street

Captain Phillips

Her

Dallas Buyers Club

Philomena

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

  Close Calls: Blue Jasmine, Saving Mr. Banks, Fruitvale Station

  Since the Academy can name between five and ten best picture nominees I have listed ten here, but I think only the top eight will be nominated.

[micksquill]

2013 Oscar Predictions

Ok. Forgot the Oscar Nominations were coming out until about an hour ago, so this year's predictions are a little rushed. But who knows…maybe this will be my best prognostication yet! Best Supporting Actor: Philip Seymor Hoffman, The Master Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln Alan Arkin, Argo Javier Bardem, Skyfall Outside Chance: Robert DiNero (Silver Linings Playbook) Christoph Waltz and Samuel L. Jackson (Django Unchained) Best Supporting Actress: Quvenzhane Wallis, The Beasts of the Southern Wild Sally Field, Lincoln Helen Hunt, The Sessions Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables Amy Adams, The Master Outside Chance: Judi Dench (Skyfall) Best Actress: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone Naomi Watts, The Impossible Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln Joaquin Phoenix, The Master Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained Denzel Washington, Flight Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook Outside Chance: John Hawkes, The Sessions Best Director: Stephen Speilberg, Lincoln Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty Ben Affleck, Argo PT Anderson, The Master David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook Outside Chance: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom), Ang Lee (Life of Pi) Best Picture: Lincoln Zero Dark Thirty Silver Linings Playbook Argo The Master Les Miserables Moonrise Kingdom Django Unchained Life of Pi Skyfall Outside Chances: Amour, The Beasts of the Southern Wild Once again, since there is not a concrete number of nominees, I've picked the max of ten, but think only the top eight on my list will receive a nod.

[micksquill]

2012 Oscar Predictions

I'm back, America! Not that you've noticed, but it's been quite a while since my last entry. Why am I suddenly ending my several months long hiatus, you ask? Because the Oscar Nominations are coming out tomorrow (fucking duh!) and it's time for me to act like I know what I'm talking about and make my prognostications. 

I went a little overboard last year and included a lot lesser categories--mainly because I had a ton of time to kill at work--but this year I'm getting back to the basics and only including the big six (Supporting and Lead Actor and Actress, Director, and Picture). The Academy has also made a minor change to the Best Picture category by allowing anywhere between five and ten nominees, so it might be a bit harder trying to hit a moving target, but I'll give it my best.  And to be honest, I haven't been to nearly enough movies this year so a lot of these guesses may be complete shots In the dark...Aw, look at me. I'm ramblin' again...Well, I hope you folks enjoy yourselves...

Best Supporting Actor:

Christopher Plummer, Beginners 

Albert Brooks, Drive

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn 

Nick Nolte, Warrior

Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Long shots: Patton Oswalt (Young Adult), Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes)

Analysis: Not the strongest field this year. Hill barely edges out Oswalt because he was the best part part of a very solid movie. A lot of hype around Serkis's Mo-cap performance, but I still have a hard time wrapping my head around a nomination going to a CGI monkey.

Best Supporting Actress:

Octavia Spencer, The Help

Berenice Bejo, The Artist

Carey Mulligan, Shame

Shailene Woodley, The Descendants 

Jessica Chastain, The Help

Long shots: Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), Judi Dench (My Week With Marilyn)

Analysis: I suppose Bejo might fall under the Lead Actress category. Mulligan could get a nod for Drive and Chastain one for Tree of Life instead. 

Best Actress:

Viola Davis, The Help

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Charlize Theron, Young Adult

Long Shots: Rooney Mara (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo), Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)

Analysis: If Mara is on the outside looking in after a really stellar performance as Lisbeth Salander, that means that this field is really stacked from top to bottom. 

Best Actor: 

George Clooney, The Descendants

Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Michael Fassbender's Penis, Shame

Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Long Shots: Ryan Gosling (Drive), Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)

Analysis: This is probably the category I'm most confident in, but I've been known to be wrong before...

Best Director:

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Alexander Payne, The Descendants

Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

Nicholas Winding Refn, Drive

Long Shots: Thomas Alfredson (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy), Stephen Spielberg (War Horse), David Fincher (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)

Analysis: ...and this is probably the category I'm least confident in. 

Best Picture:

The Artist

The Descendants

The Help

Moneyball

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Tree of Life

War Horse

Drive

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Long Shots: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Analysis: With the flexible nominee total, I've picked ten movies and ordered each of the nominees by how likely it is that they are actually picked. Since this year hasn't been the strongest, I imagine there will only be five or six nominees selected and those titles have been bolded above. 

There you have it. If you've made it this far, I'm glad I haven't bored you to death. Thanks for reading. 

[micksquill]

[micksquill]

Girl With the Dragon Tattoo red band trailer. Pretty awesome and it seems slightly Kubrickian, wouldn't you say?

The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo Trailer

What a dope trailer. Karen O. also needs to sing every rock song. Wow. 

[micksquill]

I don't know if Momma was right or if, if it's Lieutenant Dan. I don't know if we each have a destiny, or if we're all just floating around accidental-like on a breeze, but I, I think maybe it's both. Maybe both is happening at the same time.

Forrest Gump

[micksquill]

This is great. The only thing it's missing is an obligatory description of one of the items as "you know, it's that thing where a jacked (little person)" etc.

[micksquill]

I could be wrong, but this show actually could be decent. And yes, that's Lucius Malfoy from the Harry Potter movies (Jason Isaacs). I'm not saying that I will be giving "Awake" a chance, but out of all of the other new shows debuting this fall, this will be the one I would be most likely to tune in to (as of right now; that could change). Also, "Lost" fans may recognize the kid (Dylan Minnette) as Jack's son during season 6. I wonder how he feels about having two of his biggest television roles to date being based in alternate realities. 

[micksquill]

Kenna - Hell Bent

This is one of my favorite songs and it has a very cool video to go along with it, which I haven't seen in ages. I encourage you to take a look and I swear it's not a stupid as otters juggling. 

[micksquill]

Ron Swanson is a god. And this might not have even been the best part of the episode!

Here we go, much better.

[micksquill]

I posted a video of an otter playing a few days ago and thought it was just about the most amazing video I had ever seen because 1. Otters are totally kick-ass, 2. This otter is displaying some considerable skill for an aquatic mammal, and 3. Awwwww...isn't he cute! But there was one thing thing missing from the original video...Aram Khachaturian's "Sabre Dance". Enjoy.

[micksquill]

illtumblforya:

It’s official: I’m dumb.