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To Substack, or Not to Substack...

To Substack, or Not to Substack…

That is no longer a question. The question is when. A few things have to be switched around, like the JDBCOM.COM domain, which can take a frustratingly long time, several tries, prayers, and emails to different people in the spirit world of DNS, CNAME, EIEIO and other deities. And Substack will have to figure out why my archives weren’t showing up over there, despite having made all the…

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Historical Failure Analysis: Aw, NUTS!

Historical Failure Analysis: Aw, NUTS!

Did you ever start on a project that, for several reasons, just wouldn’t go anywhere?  Yeah, me too. I had grand plans for my historical failure analysis method. I still do. But it needs far more work than I can put into it right now. This blog was started to sell books. Working on a failure analysis method ain’t doing it. For whatever reason, my connection with LinkedIn has become problematic,…

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The Past Not Taken: Three Novellas

The Past Not Taken: Three Novellas is now available from your favorite booksellers.

JDB Communications, LLC, is proud to announce the publication of The Past Not Taken: Three Novellas History is part legend, part fact, but mostly interpretation of those who have gone before us We make history every day. From one moment to the next, our decisions—small and large—shape our future and, as we travel along that path, shape our past. How do we want it to read? Should we care? Or…

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Case Study 2, Germany Before 1945, Step Two: Determine the Failure's Indicators

Case Study 2, Germany Before 1945, Step Two: Determine the Failure’s Indicators

This seems a good deal cleaner than the earlier protocol. Germany failed to achieve its supposed security in WWI, or its quest for Poland and European Russia and the ethnic cleansing, to borrow a modern term, in WWII. Step One: Define the Failure–DONEStep Two: Determine the Failure’s Indicators–WORKINGStep Three: Identify the Contributing Social, Economic, Political, Demographic and…

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Case Study 2, Germany Before 1945, Step One Redux: What Did Germany Fail To Do?

Case Study 2, Germany Before 1945, Step One Redux: What Did Germany Fail To Do?

The method I’m testing is intended for analyzing the historical failures of states. Remember that this is a test case, not a definitive analysis…yet. So, our new steps: Step One: Define the Failure(s)Step Two: Determine the Failure(s) IndicatorsStep Three: Identify the Contributing Social, Economic, Political, Demographic and Environmental Causes of the Failure(s)Step Four: Identify the…

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A Message From Our Analyst: This Ain't Right.

A Message From Our Analyst: This Ain’t Right.

I seem to have written myself into an analytical box. So what else is new? Those of you who have been following my essays will recall that this is the second EXPERIMENT, the second CASE STUDY to test a method, a way of thinking about how societies/groups fail. My sample case studies depend on rigor, as much as this amateur can provide. I’m trying to demonstrate a method of analysis, not…

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Case Study 2, Germany Before 1945; Part 1: Where and When The Failure Occurred--Germany

Case Study 2, Germany Before 1945; Part 1: Where and When The Failure Occurred–Germany

The consistent common element to the failure of Germany in 1945 seems to be…Germans. Why? Before we go off and say, “it’s the Germans that caused their own problems,” we should think carefully about what made the Germans fail. This correspondent was at a convention a few years back, talking to one of the leading authorities on WWI about WWI. I had just finished my essay for The Meuse Argonne…

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Case Study 2, Germany Before 1945; Part 1: Where and When The Failure Occurred--1918

Case Study 2, Germany Before 1945; Part 1: Where and When The Failure Occurred–1918

It has been observed that this is the THIRD segment of PART 1…but that observer was reading out of sequence, so I get it. By November 1918, the German Army was on the edge of disintegration. It had started to fall apart in late summer–the traditional date is 8 August. Still, they were coherent enough to withstand heavy American/Allied blows in France, Italy, and the Balkans. The draft class of…

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Case Study 2, Germany Before 1945; Part 1: Where and When The Failure Occurred--1945

Case Study 2, Germany Before 1945; Part 1: Where and When The Failure Occurred–1945

Deciding how Germany failed in 1945 is a game of whack-a-mole: reasons just keep popping up. Germany in May 1945 was a large-scale abattoir. Many senior political leaders had fled Berlin; those who didn’t were either captured or dead by their own hands or by the German firing squad. The military leaders stayed at their posts–for the most part–doing what every German expected them to do. And…

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The Liberty Bell Files: J. Edgar's Demons is Now Available

The Liberty Bell Files: J. Edgar’s Demons is Now Available

JDB Communications, LLC is proud to announce the publication of The Liberty Bell Files: J Edgar’s Demons The Liberty Bell Files: J Edgar’s Demons is a work of fiction…seriously. Neither the Liberty Bell Project nor “the Files,” nor The Special Projects Division of the Federal Bureau of Investigation ever existed. I mean, can you imagine the FBI investigating a guy who didn’t want to pay sales…

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Case Study 2, Germany Before 1945; Part 1: Where and When The Failure Occurred

Case Study 2, Germany Before 1945; Part 1: Where and When The Failure Occurred

This case study will have to analyze centuries, not just a few years, and study five failure points. What do we mean by Germany?  The part of the world we now call Germany was populated by proto-humans at least 600,000 years ago. The first non-modern human Neanderthal fossil was discovered in the Neander Valley. Similarly dated evidence of modern humans has been found in the Swabian Jura,…

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Why The Samurai Lost Japan (Again)

Why The Samurai Lost Japan (Again)

Failure Analysis for Germany to 1945 is in process, but just defining that failure is daunting. Hold on until next month. The seal above is for a Five-Star review that our book, Why the Samurai Lost Japan: A Study in Miscalculation and Folly got on the Reader’s Favorite website. The reviewer, obviously a person of some discretion (who actually read it), declared: Cover for Why the Samurai Lost…

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Case Study 1, The Confederate States of America; Part 7: Publish Analysis and Await Criticism

Case Study 1, The Confederate States of America; Part 7: Publish Analysis and Await Criticism

Publish what…and why? Yes, the Confederacy failed. That is indisputable. The cottage industry that includes Civil War Inc. has always disagreed on why, exactly, filling libraries with different versions. Blaming anything on Southern leadership, however, is verboten because that might disrupt The South’s (TM) Holy Trinity of Father (Jefferson Davis), Son (Robert E. Lee), and Holy Spirit (Thomas…

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Case Study 1, The Confederate States of America; Part 6: Does This Make Sense?

Case Study 1, The Confederate States of America; Part 6: Does This Make Sense?

Pop Quiz! Where was Alexander Vandegrift, commanding the 1st Marine Division on Guadalcanal, born? Where was George Meade, commanding the Army of the Potomac at Gettysburg, born?  The reason for these questions will become clear. There comes a time in any historical project when an analyst should stop and ask: Does any of this make sense?  Or at least we should. This is where I’m doing just…

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Historical Failure Analysis Case Study 1, The Confederate States of America; Part 5: Compare and Contrast

Historical Failure Analysis Case Study 1, The Confederate States of America; Part 5: Compare and Contrast

According to my original outline for this method, this phase is where we compare and contrast the various examples. Since there are no other examples, we’ll compare and contrast the multiple causes of the Confederacy’s ultimate failure and rank them in order: FirstWorstMost influentialLeast appreciated by historians/pundits/blowhards Chickens and Eggs A short chronology of major events up to…

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Historical Failure Analysis Case Study 1, The Confederate States of America; Part 5: Compare and Contrast

Historical Failure Analysis Case Study 1, The Confederate States of America; Part 5: Compare and Contrast

According to my original outline for this method, this phase is where we compare and contrast the various examples. Since there are no other examples, we’ll compare and contrast the multiple causes of the Confederacy’s ultimate failure and rank them in order: FirstWorstMost influentialLeast appreciated by historians/pundits/blowhards Chickens and Eggs A short chronology of major events up to…

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Case Study 1, The Confederate States of America; Part 4: Analyze Factors

Case Study 1, The Confederate States of America; Part 4: Analyze Factors

So now we come down to the why of the Confederacy’s failure. The Confederate States of America couldn’t define its borders or its membersThe Confederacy’s central government didn’t represent–truly–the majority of the populous of states that it could encompass and thus could not count on the support of its people.The seceded states declared their support for the institution of slavery, but few in…