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If you ask a Barber if you need a Haircut, he will always say Yes.
When seeking advice from someone, think about who it benefits. It’s been an eventful week for the bond market, which has responded positively. Inflation remains persistent but stable at 2.6%, while Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are in line with expectations. Income increased by 0.4%, spending rose by 0.7%, and the savings rate declined from 4.1% to 3.8%. In December, pending home…
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Home Sales. It's Picture Day! Enjoy.
A picture is worth a thousand words, and today, I’m keeping it simple. Here’s the takeaway: home sales are down, as interest rates stay stubbornly stubborn. What does this mean for you? For Sellers: With fewer homes on the market, your property has a better chance to stand out. For Buyers: There’s less competition, giving you more options and negotiating…
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Rents have a huge impact on inflation so why are Real-Time numbers so much lower than CPI's?
Shelter is the largest single component within the inflation reports. Which makes sense because your house payment or rent payment is the biggest component of your monthly outlay. Real Time data from Realtor.com and Zillow rental report we have a blended rent rise of 1.25%. CoreLogic’s Blended rate is 1.7%. The issue is the Government data which affects the Consumer Price Index CPI is 4.6%. The…
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Oil Prices Currently at $75.75 can we hit 58.62 by 2027. Let talk Yesterday, Today.
The new administrations plan to increase US supply of Oil are expected to cause oil prices to fall. A significant driver of inflation is oil prices. Consider this: it impacts transportation—not just fueling your car but also delivering that Amazon package or taking a flight from Chicago to Palm Springs to escape the cold. It also affects the production of goods. In essence, oil influences almost…
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You Can Use Logic to justify almost anything, that's it's power, and its flaw.
We have contrasting views on inflation from Fed President Beth Hammack and Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Hammack considers inflation an ongoing concern, opposed the December rate cut, and even supports the possibility of a rate hike this year. In contrast, Waller, who I heard yesterday on CNBC, sounded much more dovish. He expressed openness to rate cuts as early as March. My concern with…
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Fed Manufacturing Index Climbed dramatically. Tariffs? or will it continue.
When we look at the Manufacturing Index graph we can almost correlate interest rates inversely against the rise in manufacturing. Which would be good news. Manufacturers are hedging and producing more than usual to compensate for potential Tariffs. The challenge is uncertainty. Tariffs will create higher prices translating to higher inflation and higher mortgage rates, or not. That’s the…
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Inflation increased from 2.7% to 2.9% but the Mortgage Rates Dropped???
The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that overall inflation rose 0.4% for December 0.1% higher than expected. Energy rose 2.6% which is 40% of the CPI increase. Food also increased by 0.3% higher than expected. The Core rate, which strips out food and energy prices only increased 0.2%, lower than the 0.4% expected. Lodging is down, Air Fares are up due the above mentioned energy…
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It's a Riddle Wrapped in a Mystery inside an Enigma: Winston Churchill radio broadcast, 1 Oct. 1939
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Consumers do not feel as good as the Jobs Report illustrates. The latest BLS Jobs Report showed a strong labor market with allot of job creations. Unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. The Consumer Survey out of the University of Michigan tells a different story. The poll when asked about rising unemployment went from 32% to 40% to 50% in January. The gap between those who thing…
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Business Activity increased, But ISM said due to possible higher Tariffs.
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The JOLTS -Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey show job openings rose from 7.839M to 8.098M. Stronger than expected. Hiring rate fell from 3.4% to 3.3%. Lowest since 2013. Vacancy to Unemployment ratio compares the job openings to number of unemployed. its a different way to see what is going on. It is at 1.1 the biggest decline from the peak of 2%. This shows the labor market is actually…
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Short Cut is always the longest road.
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Hard work truly pays off—if it were easy, everyone would do it. As we step into the new year, it’s a time to set priorities and define expectations. For some, this might mean pursuing goals like buying a home or switching careers, both of which tie into the challenges of the affordability. In September, the national average mortgage rate was just above 6%, sparking renewed energy in the housing…
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It's about time! What did you do, Drive here in Reverse?
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The Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at 2:00 PM ET today. While this move feels overdue, my concern lies with Fed Chair Powell’s press conference and the release of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). With tariffs back on the policy agenda under the new administration and the labor market continuing to perform better than anticipated, inflation is…
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Consumer Price Index CPI came in as expected but high. Inflation up slightly.
What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the prices paid by typical consumers for a “basket” of goods and services. This basket represents everyday expenses, such as food, housing, and transportation. The key figure often discussed—currently 2.7%—represents the year-over-year change in the cost of that same basket of goods and services. The…
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Housing Market Cool Stats. 136M households in US, 91M homes Owned.
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Lots of Stats below but worth the read. 136M total households in the US 91M homes owned (67% homeownership rate) 56.5M homes currently have a mortgage (62%) 34.5M owned free and clear (38%) 45M homes Rented (33%) – this one surprised me. Average Homeowners with a mortgage have $311,000 in equity. And only 9900,000 homes with negative equity or 1.8% (this is a very low number). Appreciation…
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What's a bounce back Job? well lets find out. Click the link
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Bounce back jobs is when an event like the Boeing strike and Sever Storms bring employees back to the workforce. It skews the numbers, sometimes more than expected. November was one of those months. 227,000 jobs created – fairly typical but higher than expectations. Here’s another interesting Job fact to talk about at the Holiday Parties: The number of unemployed people rose by 161,000, while…
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More Noise than Signal.
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The sheer volume of data our industry processes to uncover that single spark of insight leading to the answer is immense—and no, for all you geeks out there, it’s not 42! When are the Interest Rates going to Drop? No one knows for certain, but we can make some educated guesses. This week focused heavily on jobs reports. The ADP Employment Report came in weaker than expected, and October’s…
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Jobs Jobs Jobs--JOLTS, ADP BLS and more - Lower Rates?
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This week is pivotal for jobs data, as it will play a crucial role in the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate cut decision on December 18th. The data will offer valuable insight into the future trajectory of interest rates and the bond market. What do we expect to happen this week. Job Openings increase slightly Quite rate to drop again, Lowest since 2015 (less people quitting their jobs) ADP…
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Don’t take out your Contacts until you know where your Glasses are.
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It was an interesting 15 minutes… The upcoming release of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is expected to dominate headlines in this shortened week. Projections indicate a slight uptick in year-over-year inflation, rising from 2.1% to 2.3%. Meanwhile, the 10-year bond has responded favorably to the anticipated appointment of Scott Bessent as the new Treasury Secretary. His…
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