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We looked inside some of the posts by jackkammertime-blog and here's what we found interesting.
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Rates are Flat, Inflation Stubborn but will acquiesce.
ac·qui·esce /ˌakwēˈes/ verb accept something reluctantly but without protest. The data indicates a consistent trend toward lower inflation, as shown by the CoreLogic Rental Index, which has decreased since the last report. However, this decline hasn’t yet been reflected in the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI). If you’re an agent or lender, how do you address this with your clients? What…
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Bonds Flat NVIDIA earnings Ok with the Bond market.
Bonds are flat this morning which is good news. If NVIDIA took off it could have pressured the Bond market as NVIDIA is the largest component of the S&P 500. *would have pulled more money away from the bond market Job Data Revisions yet again. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages QCEW released their numbers and is showing more significant downward revisions in the labor market. What…
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NVIDIA Earnings Report and the Bond Market.
YourApplicationOnline.com
This was fascinating and highlights how much emotions and greed play a significant role in the stock market. 54% of the available global assets are in the Bond Market with 46% in the Stock Market –Data SIFMA. $140.7 trillion in Bond and $115 trillion in Stock Market. Nvidia has emerged as a leader in the AI boom, with its stock prices soaring dramatically. Similar to the crypto market, these…
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PPI is up, Jobless Claims are Down So what's a Bond to Do?
Producer Price Index was slightly hotter than expected. This is the cost of the producer to produce goods and services. A preamble to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) due out 27th of November. Initial Jobless Claims are down for the first time as well as Continuing Claims. The Bond Market is just not sure what to do with itself. Rates increased the last two weeks and are not budging…
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Inflation report came in As Expected. This is huge.
https://MortgageNews.Blog
Mortgage rates have taken a beating in recent weeks, so this bit of good news—or at least no bad news—is welcome. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed overall inflation rose by 0.24%, with the annual rate ticking up slightly from 2.4% to 2.6%. Two main factors driving this increase were a surprising 2.7% rise in used car prices and, as expected for the holiday season, higher…
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Bonds are up, Nope their down, oh sorry up again....
https://MortgageNews.Blog
The bond market, particularly mortgage-backed securities, has been on a wild ride over the past three weeks. Take a look at the graph below: remember, an upward movement indicates lower rates. We’ve seen significant losses since September, and while there was a bit of a rebound last week, most of those gains slipped away this morning. This chart represents about a 0.75% rate shift. The…
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It's Fine, I'm Fine, Everything is Fine.
https://MortgageNews.Blog
ADP Employment Report was double the expectations. It is seasonally adjusted but much higher than anyone expected. Friday is tech BLS Report will have more detail and actual numbers. Small Businesses with fewer than 50 employees are not seeing job growth. which is better than the decline the last four months. GDP Q3 shows economy grew by 2.8%, we expected 3.0%. PCE numbers tomorrow. Lots of…
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Quit Rate Remains at 1.9%. Very telling.
https://MortgageNews.Blog
Understanding the Quit Rate and Economic Indicators The quit rate is the rate at which employees voluntarily leave their jobs. When this rate remains low for an extended period, it often signals that fewer people feel confident about finding new employment opportunities. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that job openings fell by 557,000, 7% below the anticipated…
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Durable Goods And a quick look at next week.
Https://MortgageNews.Blog
What’s interesting about Durable Goods Orders, yes I guess I just said that but seriously it’s a thing. Durable Goods are items with a lifespan of over three years—think of dishwashers, ovens, stoves, and cars. Interestingly, there’s been a shift in demand since the pandemic, with many people investing in home remodels and repairs. The trend is clear in the graph below. Part of the inflationary…
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It feels like a Hurd of Turtles stampeding through peanut butter. And what's a Beige Book?
https://MortgageNews.Blog
“It feels like we’re just running in place,More homes for sale, yet stuck in the race.Rates in the sixes, a welcome descent,Better than last year’s eight percent. But still we stand, no forward pace,Caught in a cycle, in the same space.The numbers shift, but the story’s the same,Chasing a change that never quite came.“ At 2:00pm ET the Federal Reserve will release their Beige Book. Think of it…
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If the Feds are cutting their rates, why are Mortgage rates higher?
https://MortgageNews.Blog
Since the Fed has cut rates 50bp on September 18th, 30-year mortgage rates have risen by roughly 0.75%. “But why? I thought the Mortgage rates were tied to the Fed rate” When the Fed cuts rates it has specific impact on these and more: Money Market accounts Short term Treasuries Credit cards Car loans Personal loans Small Business loans What you don’t see on the list is mortgage rates,…
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How Does Production Capacity Utilization give us insight... I bet you were thinking the same thing!
https://:MortgageNews.Blog
Production Capacity Utilization simply refers to how much a company or industry can produce versus how much they are actually producing. When production is at full capacity (100%), prices tend to be higher because demand is strong. During the 2008 financial crisis, production utilization dropped to 60% due to weaker demand. Currently, we are at 77.5%, the lowest since January. While it’s not a…
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Don't Stop! Run through the Tape.
https://MortgageNews.Blog
Fed Governor Waller has three possible projections with regards to the economy. Economy Stays strong, inflation nearing Fed’s target and unemployment only ticks up slightly. Fed continues with rate cuts. Inflation falls materially below 2% for some time. Labor market significantly deteriorates. Fed would suddenly be behind the curve and have to cur rates more aggressively. Inflation picks up…
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You Get what You Plan For. Success is a Reflection of the quality of your Preparation.
https://MortgageNews.Blog
With the market changing and interest rates trending down, there are allot of buyers and sellers starting to get back into the market. Your Success is largely a result of preparation, foresight, and actions in advance. Back to the Data: ADP Employment Report for September higher than expectations at 143,000 jobs created but with August’s report factored in, it still remains a weak…
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1% Rate Drop last 30 days, what's to come. ILA strike and impact to rates.
https://MortgageNews.Blog
Looking back to the beginning of September, it’s remarkable that rates have dropped by a full percentage point. A quick calculation shows that this translates to roughly $84 less per month for every $100K borrowed. For a $700K loan, that’s nearly $600 in monthly savings. This morning, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) went on strike, potentially affecting up to 50% of U.S.…
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As Inflation drops so goes the Fed Rate. Inflation at 2.2%
https://MortgageNews.Blog
The Personal Consumption Expenditures – (PCE) which measures the cost of goods and services in the US, rose 0.1% in August putting the 12 month inflation rate to 2.2%. Personal income remained steady with a slight increase of 0.2%, while spending also grew by 0.2%. However, caution prevails in the market, prompting manufacturers to lower their prices in an effort to attract a restrained consumer…
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More Oil, More Home Sales and More buyers hitting the streets.
https://MortgageNews.Blog
One of the larger components of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (CPE) is Shelter and Energy. Saudi Arabia who is the world’s largest oil exporter will be increasing Production by the end of the year. Right now oil is running just under $68 per barrel. They abandoned their $100 target. As oil prices go down so does inflation. When inflation drops so does the Feds proclivity to drop their…
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