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[gradiant-fantasy]

The 2nd round rookie receiver who will soar to dynasty super-stardom

Ahead of the 2021 season, to say that then-dynasty-darling, Saquon Barkley, who had an overall dynasty ADP of three (according to DLF mock drafts), would drop to 31, in just nine months, would have gotten you laughed out of a few Reddit threads. Conversely, you would have been #canceled on Twitter for suggesting that Ja'Marr Chase would rise from an ADP of 31* before last season, to the top overall ranked player in dynasty start up drafts in less than a full calendar year.

The shifting tides of dynasty values can be as aggressive as they are cruel (sorry Calvin Ridley managers), but that is not to say they are entirely unpredictable. If you were somehow able to foresee either of the aforementioned ADP swings, you could have leveraged those seismic deltas to get off of the Giants running back before he suffered a bitcoin-esque crash or acquire the Bengal's super-stud for a fair price, before his value peaked.

Another time we may dive into a few players who are at risk of dropping off the fantasy map as Barkley did, but for this article we are going to focus on the positives and try to identify a player who has a chance to shoot up dynasty startup draft boards before the start of next season.

Although Chase's climb was faster than many had predicted, he was an indomitable prospect being paired with a talented QB and one that he was familiar with after playing with Joe Burrow at LSU. All these signs pointed to a likely jump in ADP, even if the number one overall player was a step above what even the biggest fans could have predicted. To stake a bolder claim for this article, and one that will cost you a bit less in your dynasty leagues, I only considered players who are currently ranked outside of the top 24 at their position in startup dynasty ADP and identified a receiver who I think has a shot at being ranked amongst the top 12 WRs heading into the 2023 season.

George Pickens WR, PIT | Age: 21 | Current ADP: 43

For years, there had been a pervasive thought in fantasy football, and especially in dynasty circles, that first year wide receivers were unlikely to contribute to winning a championship. When studying an incoming class, it was common to hear "there's no Julio Jones or AJ Green in this crop of rookies," referring to the excellent duo of WRs taken in the top 6 picks in the 2011 draft. While there were outliers like Michael Thomas (2016), Mike Evans (2014), and Odell Beckham Jr (2014) who all posted impressive stat lines in their first year, this belief persisted until Justin Jefferson set the record for the best rookie WR season of all time in 2020 and his former LSU teammate, Ja'Marr Chase, bested it just one year later.

No longer do contending fantasy managers assume WRs cannot contribute to their championship chase in year one and as such, Treylon Burks (18), Garrett Wilson (21), and Drake London (23), all find themselves within the top 24 dynasty receivers, by ADP. For that reason, I had to look a little deeper in this rookie class to find this potential riser.

Enter George Pickens, someone who I predict will be the next great WR in a line of many great WRs that the Pittsburgh Steelers have drafted. Now, I don't expect Pickens will have the same supernova-esque season that Jefferson and Chase have had over the past two years, but with Pickens, we're playing for 2023. In 2022 the polarizing receiver has to deal with a rookie quarterback, serious target competition from Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Friermuth, and Najee Harris, and has the cloud of "off the field concerns" hanging over him. You can easily make the case that 8 or 9 other rookies should have better seasons than him this year, but that's exactly the type of player that we want to identify if there are reasons to believe his situation will improve and we can get ahead of the market correction.

So, if he's dealing with this murky situation in 2022, why should we be so high on George Pickens?

Pickens is an elite prospect. The former Georgia Bulldog is 6'3", weighs 200 pounds, profiles as a prototypical x-receiver, and had a college breakout age* of 18.5, which is in the 97th percentile. Athletically, Pickens best comparable pro is Jerry Jeudy of the Denver Broncos, who was a first round pick just two seasons ago. During his time at Georgia, Pickens compiled 1,300 yards and 14 touchdowns over three years. These numbers would be even more eye-popping had he not torn his ACL which forced him to miss nearly all the 2021 season. That ACL tear, coupled with the off the field concerns, could explain Pickens falling to pick 52 on day two of the NFL draft.

While there is always risk of a re-injury, in today's NFL, it is not foolish to be optimistic about his recovery and the likelihood of him to return to pre-injury form. As far as the troubled past or character concerns that seem to be cast about frequently when analysts are describing Pickens, I fail to take issue with what is being highlighted during his college career. The first incident was when Pickens was suspended for fighting Georgia Tech cornerback, Tre Swiling during a game, and the second dealt with the mercurial talent spraying Tennessee QB, Jarrett Guarantano with a water bottle when he was tackled along the Georgia sideline.

These antics are reminiscent of actions from players like Jalen Ramsey, Aquib Talib, Andre Johnson, and even AJ Green in recent years in the NFL. If Pickens can be as productive as any of those players, I think his lack of conflict avoidance can be overlooked in pursuit of production. And even if they do persist, what team over the past decade has handled difficult personalities better than the Steelers? If Pickens continues to be magnet for controversy, I have full confidence that Mike Tomlin, who handled the egos and eccentricities of Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell masterfully during their time in Pittsburgh, has more than enough structure in place to keep Pickens focused on the field.

So, if we feel comfortable that Pickens is an elite talent, as he proved to be in college, has an easy path to full health, and are comfortable with why he fell to day two and doesn't have the same draft capital as other elite receivers, all that stands in his way of skyrocketing up fantasy draft boards is opportunity and the talent of the QB who has to get him the ball.

Let's tackle opportunity first. While there are 163 targets available in Pittsburgh, in part due to the vaccuum of JuJu Smith-Schuster's absence, who departed for Kansas City this off season, Diontae Johnson still owns a 28.4% target share in this offense which is good enough for the 4th best such mark in the NFL. With Chase Claypool (18%), Pat Friermuth (13%), and Najee Harris (14.5%) all commanding heavy pass catching roles as well, there may not be much left for the rookie. But that is just for 2022. Diontae Johnson is set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2023 and with the explosion of FA WR deals, there is not guarantee that Pittsburgh is going to want to re-sign him at the level he is sure to receive when he hits the open market. Pittsburgh may have tipped their hand at this by drafting two WRs in Pickens and Calvin Austin III this year, but that could also have just been a way to replace the outgoing Smith-Schuster. But if you follow the money on this offense, you can learn how the Steelers view their offense. In an alarming and unsettling surprise, FB Derek Watt is actually the largest cap-hit on the Steelers offense at $4.75M. If Pittsburgh is intentionally keeping offensive salaries down, paying Diontae Johnson $80M+ over four years may not be high on their list of things to do.

So, if Diontae Johnson does leave in 2023 and the door opens for Picken's skyward ascension, only one small hurdle could trip him up on becoming the Steelers' WR1. One small, but tall and fast, hurdle named Chase Claypool. After a promising rookie season in Pittsburgh, the ND almost-turned-TE-but-not-really-WR, Claypool laid something of an egg in his second year, failing to capitalize on the momentum that he generated as a rookie. Despite starting 7 more games in 2021, Claypool recorded less catches, less yards, and less touchdowns than he did in 2020. This may have been caused by the linguini tendons in Ben Roethlisberger's elbow, but Claypool critics would be quick to point out that Big Ben's arm strength was somehow worse in 2020 than last year. Either way, if Pickens is as good as the Steelers expect, as a much more well-rounded and productive player in college, climbing past Claypool on the depth chart should not be much of an issue for Pickens.

If that path to massive opportunity does present itself for Pickens, the hardest remaining part of his projection, is what the quarterback that will be throwing him the ball in 2023 will look like. Unless he has one of the most catastrophic rookie seasons of all time, that player should be former Pitt Panther and the first QB off the board in this year's NFL draft, Kenny Pickett.

It is easy for us in the fantasy sphere to poke fun at Pickett because of his perceived lack of mobility (FWIW I think he has a little more juice than he gets credit for), his small hands, and the fact that he was the best of a bad group of QBs a year after we saw 5 potential franchise signal callers taken in the first round of the 2021 draft. But if you take a step back an assess who Pickett is as a player, you can see why the Steelers felt so confident in drafting him. In his final season at Pitt, Pickett accounted for 47 total touchdowns and committed just 13 turnovers and his EPA* was in the 94th percentile among drafted QBs over the past 17 years. While his lack of elite physical traits, limited production in college, and apparent inability to look past his first and second read will likely limit his ceiling, there is reason to believe that Pickett can go on to be an average, if not good NFL starter for at least the duration of his rookie contract.

If Kirk Cousins can do what he has done for Justin Jefferson over the past two years and Ryan Tannehill was able to support AJ Brown as the top dynasty WR this time last year, Kenny Pickett should absolutely not be the reason that you shy away from taking a shot on the supreme upside of George Pickens' talent and potential opportunity.  

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*Remember the concerns we all had about his drops in the preseason and his inability to see and catch an NFL football?

*Breakout age is defined as the player's age at the start of the college football season when they first posted a Dominator Rating above 20%. Dominator rating is a calculation of the number of touchdowns and receiving yards a player is responsible for on his team.

*Expected Points Added is the difference between a team's expected points after a play versus their expected points before a play.