geoffrealestate

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1950 Pemberton Avenue. New listing. Really (really!) nice new house! (at Pemberton Heights)

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Home sale activity improves but remains below historical averages

Lower levels of both supply and demand in recent months are holding home prices in check in the Greater Vancouver housing market. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 2,347 on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in March 2013. This represents an 18.3 per cent decrease compared to the 2,874 sales recorded in March 2012, and a 30.6 per cent increase compared to the 1,797 sales in February 2013.

Last month’s sales were the second lowest March total in the region since 2001 and 30.2 per cent below the 10-year sales average for the month.

“While home sales were below what’s typical for March, we are seeing more balance between the number of sales and listings on the market in the last two months, which is having a stabilizing impact on home prices,” Sandra Wyant, REBGV president said.

The sales-to-active-listings ratio currently sits at 15.2 per cent in Greater Vancouver, a three per cent increase from last month. This is the first time this ratio has been above 15 per cent since May 2012.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 4,839 in March. This represents a 17.2 per cent decline compared to the 5,843 new listings reported in March 2012 and a 0.1 per cent increase from the 4,833 new listings in February of this year. Last month’s new listing count was 14.4 per cent below the region’s 10-year new listing average for the month.

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver is 15,460, a 1.5 per cent increase compared to March 2012 and a 4.5 per cent increase compared to February 2013.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is currently $593,100. This represents a decline of 3.9 per cent compared to this time last year and an increase of 0.9 per cent compared to January 2013.

Sales of detached properties reached 933 in March 2013, a decrease of 21.1 per cent from the 1,183 detached sales recorded in March 2012, and a 48 per cent decrease from the 1,795 units sold in March 2011. The benchmark price for detached properties decreased 5 per cent from March 2012 to $906,900.

Sales of apartment properties reached 982 in March 2013, a decline of 17.5 per cent compared to the 1,191 sales in March 2012, and a decrease of 39.5 per cent compared to the 1,622 sales in March 2011. The benchmark price of an apartment property decreased 3.3 per cent from March 2012 to $362,100.

Attached property sales in March 2013 totalled 432, a decline of 13.6 per cent compared to the 500 sales in March 2012, and a 34.8 per cent decrease from the 663 attached properties sold in March 2011. The benchmark price of an attached unit decreased 2.5 per cent between March 2012 and 2013 to $454,300.

April 1 marked the return of the GST and PST tax structure in the province. From a real estate perspective, it’s important to remember that: 
   • sales tax on a new home is reduced to 5 per cent GST plus 2 per cent BC Transition Tax (total 7 per cent) from 12 per cent under the HST; and 
   • tax on real estate commissions has been reduced to 5 per cent from 12 per cent under the HST.

These reduced tax rates apply to transactions payable on or after April 1.

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Little chance of correction in Vancouver real estate market

I really enjoyed this article.  For all that we hear in the media about the market, it's refreshing to hear some solid counter-arguments.

***************************************

VANCOUVER, BC,

Mar. 18, 2013/ Troy Media

Will the Vancouver housing market crash? Should I be waiting for a major drop in prices before buying a home in Vancouver? Should I sell my Vancouver home, rent for a while and then be able to buy an equivalent home for a lot less money? The answer to all of them is a resounding NO.

First let me clarify that I am using ‘Vancouver’ as the greater Vancouver area, sometimes referred to as Metro. Second, a crash is a large and sudden price decline where prices do not recover to previous levels in the short to medium term. Housing prices did crash in the 1980’s but a major difference is that at that time many homes had been bought by speculators on very small margins and interest rates soared well into double digit levels.

Now, very few homes are held on spec and any anticipated increase in interest rates is expected to be very modest. Mortgage rates may even go down. Canadian banks make a significant share of their profits from mortgage lending and it is a low risk part of their business since their prudent lending standards reduce the chance of default. Also, many mortgages are guaranteed by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). In fact, looking to maintain or increase the bank’s mortgage business, the Bank of Montreal has recently reduced its five year fixed mortgage lending rate from 3.09 per cent to 2.99 per cent making house buying a tad more affordable.

The cost of housing in Vancouver is not likely to change dramatically for the foreseeable future. It may soften a bit or it may even rise a bit. The MLS home price index in the Greater Vancouver area actually rose 0.4 per cent from January to February this year. Prices are about 3 per cent lower than they were six months or a year ago, but are 4 per cent higher than they were three years ago. Prices for detached homes have been the softest, while apartments and townhouses have seen much less change, reflecting the trend to condos as a more affordable form of housing.

February sales in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley are still below trend, but are higher than they were in January and attendance at open houses has been rising. The housing industry has been expressing optimism about housing sales and prices, with a 43 per cent increase in single family starts over the past year. Starts of multiple units have fallen in that time, but this is attributed to banks demanding higher levels of pre-sales before offering financing. Anne McMullin, CEO of the Urban Development Institute, expects this to delay but not reduce the overall level of starts.

There are two groups which would benefit from declining home prices. First are people in the Vancouver area who do not own real estate and whose income level does not enable them to afford the size and location of home to which they aspire. Many have adjusted by seeking a smaller home and/or one in a less costly neighbourhood. But some cannot afford even that.

A second group are the retirement age baby boomers across Canada who hope to spend their golden years in this small corner of Canada where you don’t have to shovel snow. They are frustrated because a home anywhere else in Canada buys much less home in and around Vancouver. They are also one of the main reasons why a housing crash will not occur. Any drop in prices will lead to retirees entering the Vancouver housing market, putting a floor under prices.

Those in the international community do not seem to mind our house price levels. When looked at in a global context, home prices in Vancouver are not unreasonable. Ask anyone from London or Hong Kong. And people from around the world see not only good value in our real estate, but also an open society, a pleasant climate and a stable political environment.

Finally, the majority of people in greater Vancouver already own real estate, benefit from current housing values and would be hurt by a crash or any serious drop. They do not want to see the value of their biggest asset decline. Home equity often forms a large part of retirement savings and people count on it in their financial planning.

So, if you want some Vancouver real estate should you buy now even if you pay a little more and get a little less than you had hoped? Probably. And should you sell your Vancouver real estate in the hope of buying it back later for less? Definitely, not.

Troy Media BC’s Business columnist Roslyn Kunin is a consulting economist and speaker and can be reached at www.rkunin.com.

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Happy Friday Part 2

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Happy Friday Vancouver!

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Great Start to 2013! (at Eagle Harbour)

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Why we won't crash in Canada like the USA

  By David Larock

Statistics Canada recently changed the way it calculates key economic data to bring its methods into line with agreed upon international accounting standards. As a result, the debt-to-income ratio for the average Canadian household shot up 11 per cent, literally overnight, to 163 per cent (a record high).

This has inspired lots of foreboding talk about how our “soaring” household debt-to-income levels are now higher than U.S. debt-to-income ratios were at the peak of their housing bubble. That may be technically true, but it is also totally misleading.

That’s because the standard method for calculating this ratio uses after-tax income, which isn’t a fair comparison because Canadian personal income taxes cover health care costs and American personal income taxes don’t. (To put this difference in perspective, according to my initial research the average American spends anywhere from 10 per cent to 20 per cent of their after-tax income on health-care related costs.)

While it has become fashionable to predict that Canada is headed for a U.S.-style housing crash, most economists still think that is unlikely and they use plenty of data to support their position.

To be clear, I readily agree that our household debt levels are too high and that’s why I have consistently supported the federal government’s attempts to reign in borrowing by changing the lending policies and regulations used by CMHC and OSFI. But that’s a far cry from believing that our debt levels are about to cause our houses to start spontaneously combusting. (Did I just give Maclean’s an idea for their next apocalyptic magazine cover … or have they used that one already?)

Before you start loading up on canned soup and fire extinguishers, consider this sampling of recent comments from the experts I read:

* A report by BMO economists in January 2012 first pointed out the flaw in using after-tax income to compare Canadian and U.S. debt-to-income ratio levels. Instead, they argued that using a debt-to-gross income ratio would provide a better apples-to-apples comparison. Using this revised methodology, BMO economist Sal Guatieri reported recently that Canada’s debt-to-gross income ratio (121 per cent) is still well below both the current (146 per cent) and peak (166 per cent) U.S. levels. That presents a very different comparison from the popular one being bandied about in much of the mainstream media.

* David Rosenberg, a well-known Canadian economist, wrote recently that our ratio of housing starts to the civilian population is “not far off the average of the last 10 years, whereas as in the U.S. back in the 2006-07 peak, that ratio was 25 per cent above the long-run norm.” In other words, Canada has not seen the kind of short-term spike in speculative real-estate investing/borrowing that we saw in the U.S. during the latter stages of their housing bubble.

* Mr. Rosenberg also notes that Canadian policy makers and regulators have been pro-active in responding to our rising household debt levels while their U.S counterparts were basically asleep at the switch until it was too late (hyperbole mine).

* Further to that last point, Benjamin Tal, an economist with CIBC, recently noted in an interview with Rob Carrick that overall Canadian household debt is now rising at its slowest pace in 10 years, while consumer debt levels are actually falling for the first time in 20 years. That kind of momentum makes for a trend in the right direction.

* In a separate report, Tal notes that the crash in U.S. house prices was far more extreme in cities with above-average levels of sub-prime lending, where prices corrected by an average of 40 per cent. This is more than double the average decline seen in U.S. cities with below-average levels of subprime loans.

“Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the Great Depression, you get a soft landing.” By comparison, Canadian subprime loans account for about seven per cent of our total mortgage debt outstanding while U.S. subprime loans peaked at a little under 25 per cent of their total mortgage debt outstanding before their housing crash.

The bottom line: Like any informed observer who can see beyond his own short-term self interest to what is best for the whole economy over the long term; I am concerned about how ultra-low interest rates have pushed our household debt levels to record highs. But I reject the implication that we have driven over the debt cliff to financial ruin and are now in free fall just waiting to hit the ground.

David Larock is an independent mortgage planner and industry insider specializing in helping clients purchase, refinance or renew their mortgages. His posts appear weekly on his blog, www.integratedmortgageplanners.com/blog.

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http://pixilink.com/7535 (at the Camberley)

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CANYON HEIGHTS OCTOBER REAL ESTATE SALES REPORT

http://canyonheightsrealestate.ca/blog.html/canyon-heights-october-market-report-2234083

Numbers are looking really good in this area of North Vancouver!

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Wow. #eagleharbour - beautiful.

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Does this mean that it will be a cheese buyers market soon? All Dairy - or just cheese? (Taken with Instagram)

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Here is a bit of the copy from my homepage at www.geoffrealestate.com Creativity is an essential tool used to achieve desired results. With over 15 years of professional experience in the Canadian advertising and marketing industry, I ha

ve a proven track record of applying creativity to the business world. What does this have to do with finding or selling a house? Everything. By applying marketing expertise towards real estate, I’ve been part of successfully buying and selling properties for nearly ten years. For a different yet effective approach to buying or selling real estate in Vancouver - let's connect.

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The stunning view from my Open House today at 5173 Redonda Dr (2-4pm). Stop by after doing the #grousegrind ! (Taken with Instagram)

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Upper Edgemont Village Real Estate Market Update

If you live in or are interested in this specific market - you might find this information interesting.  Not the same picture as painted by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.....

http://tinyurl.com/8w5pryn

[geoffrealestate]

Home sellers continue to outnumber buyers in Greater Vancouver’s summer housing market

Home sale activity remained below long-termaverages in the Greater Vancouver housing market in August.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 1,649 in August, a 30.7 per cent decline compared to the 2,378 sales in August 2011 and a 21.4 per cent decline compared to the 2,098 sales in July 2012.

August sales were the second lowest total for the month in the region since 1998 and 39.2 per cent below the 10-year August sales average of 2,711.

“Home sales this summer have been lower than we’ve seen for most of the past ten years, yet we continue to see relative stability when it comes to prices,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 4,044 in August. This represents a 13.7 per cent decline compared to August 2011 when 4,685 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and a 15.8 per cent decline compared to the 4,802 new listings in July 2012.

“For sellers it’s critical to work with your REALTOR® to understand today’s market and to develop the best strategy for selling your home,” Klein said. “On average it’s taking about two months for a home to sell on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver today.”

At 17,567, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 13.8 per cent from this time last year and declined 2.8 per cent compared to July 2012.

“Today, our sales-to-active-listings ratio sits at 9 per cent, which puts us in a buyer’s market. This ratio has been declining in our market since March when it was 19 per cent,” Klein said.

The MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is $609,500. This represents a decline of 0.5% compared to this time last year and a decline of 1.1% compared to last month.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in August 2012 reached 624, a decrease of 38.8 per cent from the 1,020 detached sales recorded in August 2011, and a 30.1 per cent decrease from the 893 units sold in August 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 0.2 per cent from August 2011 to $942,100.

Sales of apartment properties reached 725 in August 2012, a 24.1 per cent decrease compared to the 955 sales in August 2011, and a decrease of 22.5 per cent compared to the 935 sales in August 2010. The benchmark price of an apartment property decreased 0.9 per cent from August 2011 to $370,100.

Attached property sales in August 2012 totalled 300, a 25.6 per cent decrease compared to the 403 sales in August 2011, and a 19.8 per cent decrease from the 374 attached properties sold in August 2010. The benchmark price of an attached unit decreased 1.9 per cent between August 2011 and 2012 to $462,300.

Posted on REBGV.com: Wednesday, September 5, 2012

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Nothing to do with the real estate market

This link has nothing to do with Real Estate, but I still found it to be amazing.  Nice to see a local shot from North Van in the mix with these phenomenal photos.

http://imgur.com/a/YAPNn