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Contenders for Promotion to the EPL, Part Two: Nottingham Forest

This is the second part in a series looking at the Sky Bet Championship sides competing for promotion into the Premier League. The two teams with the highest point total on May 3rd will automatically ensure their bids, while the next four highest teams will enter a two-round knock-out playoff for the third and final spot. Today’s subject, Nottingham Forest, is a team with a proud and winning history, but one that has spent much of their recent past playing beneath the Premier League. For sixteen games this season, the Nottingham Forest Football Club was unbeatable. From December 3rd to February 11th, Forest won seven and drew six in league play. Led by manager Billy Davies, the side accumulated points in the league, established a foothold in the play-off zone, and advanced to the fifth round of the FA Cup before succumbing to League One’s Sheffield United. This, their first loss of the winter (against a mid-table, third division side no less) left Forest injured and reeling. The fine form that had carried them near the top of the twenty-four team table would soon disappear. Now in his second stint with the club, Billy Davies will likely take the heat if Forest is on the outside looking in during the playoffs this May. However, this fall from grace didn’t necessarily start with Davies. Four days after their FA Cup knockout, in a marquee match-up against Championship leaders Leicester City, Davies assaulted the match referee inside the players’ tunnel at half-time. The game would end in a 2-2 draw, but Davies’ rash actions would force the FA’s hand, resulting in a five match ban from the touchline. Before the FA could enforce their verdict on the hot tempered Scot, Forest had already dropped three straight—their worst streak of the season. Davies was witness to two drubbings from fellow contenders Burnley and Wigan, and a humiliating 1-0 defeat to relegation candidates Barnsley, before accepting the FA’s punishment for his “abusive words [and] behaviour.” After sitting out a pair of listless draws, Davies has appealed the decision, in order to, one assumes, get back on the touchline and inspire his side to some better results. Whatever comes of Davies’s latest sturm und drang with the FA, it’s unlikely to affect Forest’s play on the pitch. After setting the lineup, the football manager has just three substitutes at his disposal and a fifteen minute break with which to rail against the football gods or adjust his squad’s tactics. Then again, and perhaps more importantly to Nottingham Forest and their fans, there’s not much a manager can do with less than a calendar year at the helm either. Since 2004, Forest has had 13 clubhouse regimes and two owners. There’s little to be said for the shelf life of a career in professional athletics, but patience, consistency—and as it follows, winning—have not been hallmarks for this club in the recent past. *** Yet, it wasn’t always like this at Forest. Along this narrow section of the River Trent in Nottingham, lies a hotbed of English football history. On the north bank of the river you’ll find Meadow Lane, home of the oldest professional football club in the country, Notts County, who currently ply their trade in League One. On the south side of the river, just three hundred yards away, is the City Ground, Forest’s home since 1898. While not as old as their neighbors, Forest has been playing organized football since 1865 and was one of the very first clubs to don the color red. Their earlier exploits include a pair of FA Cup wins, but the team’s true glory came much later.

In 1975, after a tumultuous forty-four days at Leeds United, Brian Clough was appointed the team’s manager, a position he would hold for eighteen years. Before that, he was a spectacular footballer himself, scoring 251 goals for his Middlesbrough and Sunderland teams. Before his managerial debuts at Leeds and Nottingham, Cough led an underachieving Derby County squad into the first division and then on to a league title. Yet it is his tenure at Forest that stands alone. Clough is the longest serving and winningest of any Forest skipper and his greatest triumphs came with the club on Trent. Together, they won the Football League title in 1978, the Football League Cup in ‘78, ‘79, ‘89, and ‘90, and back-to-back European Cups in ‘79 and ‘80. Few managers compare to the man they call the “British Muhammed Ali.” In fact, Clough was so effortlessly quotable and charismatic that they had to write a book about him, and then make a movie out of it. Although neither even involves his accomplishments at Forest.

*** This Saturday, Forest will be looking for a result against their longtime rivals Derby County. If they manage to win the second leg of this year’s East Midlands derby, and hold onto the Brian Clough Trophy in the process, Forest can pull within three points of the equally stagnant Rams. However, they must do so severely shorthanded. At times this season, as many as seven first team players have been injured at once. Currently, the back line is missing the American, Eric Lichaj, out indefinitely recovering from a hernia, and Hull City loanee Jack Hobbs, who is sidelined for the rest of the season. Forest will also need to replace its proven goal scorers Henri Lansbury, and the oft-injured attacking midfielder (and modern day club legend) Andy Reid. Poised to continue its tumble down the table, Forest’s bench must prove themselves if the team hopes to stay in the playoff hunt and win promotion for the first time since 1999. If you think the Premier League’s ten-month campaign is grueling, the Championship’s absurdly packed, forty-six game schedule (with a significant number of midweek matches to fulfill all of its home and away fixtures) makes its superior look like nothing but some bourgeois, dive-happy, over-televised pastime. A team with any hope of winning promotion must have grit and depth in spades. If they’re lucky enough to get there, they must also have a front office capable of infusing new, quality players that still match the team’s identity. Forest’s instability there doesn’t bode them well. But for now, Forest must focus on their own league. They have recorded just three points from their last six matches (for a total of 57 on the season), they’ve been pole-vaulted by a resurgent Wigan Athletic and will need a victory to fend off the lurking Reading and Brighton Hove Albion, who sit in 7th and 8th with 56 points apiece. Billy Davies, meanwhile, will be back on the touchline for the foreseeable future until he settles his troubles with the FA and serves out the remainder of his ban. If Forest has any hope of reclaiming its glory days in the top flight, Davies must lead the club out from the doldrums and inspire his players to win. What they really need is Brian Clough, but that’s the kind of thinking that got them into this mess in the first place.

Update: Derby County defeated Forest 5-0, and Billy Davies got sacked the next day.

Next week, we’ll take a look at Queens Park Rangers (66 points). Start your homework here: The Four Year Plan. This series is being brought to you by Justin Hargett. He lives in NYC and can be found on Twitter.

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Kits! 

A Footballer’s Essentials

Gerrard can’t leave the dressing room without his armband. Zizou hit the pitch in his iconic golden boots. With a minimalist approach, illustrator TheLimeBath captures the essentials that the world’s best footballers need to control the game.

Read More

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Here's one I made earlier. RT @TomBeynon: I'd like to see a mocked up 'Invitation To Shoot' by @FootballCliches pic.twitter.com/TQfkPg60uV

— Football Clichés (@FootballCliches)

March 11, 2014

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Man City v Wigan

Michael Cox has a fascinating tactical breakdown of last Sunday's Man City-Wigan upset on The Guardian. One part of his breakdown stood out to me in particular: 

Wigan switched to a three-man defence, the approach Roberto Martínez employed so effectively at Wembley. City still use two strikers up front and therefore a three-man backline makes sense against them – two to track opponents, one to act as the spare man – yet many Premier League sides are too proud to change their approach so drastically. The security at the back allowed Wigan to press high up the pitch, closing down Yaya Touré particularly keenly, and they retained possession without fear of being caught two against two in defence when moves broke down.

It's not surprisingly when an idealist like Arsene Wenger refuses to change his approach when facing the potent attack of Man City, given that he harbors under the (not entirely incorrect) believe that his unwavering tactical approach is enough to defeat any squad when executed perfectly, but it is a surprise that more of the bottom dwellers in the Premier League don't utilize Wigan's tactical approach. Given the 4-0, 5-1 scorelines Manchester City have racked up against many of the EPL's worst squads, what do most of them have to lose? 

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The Contenders for Promotion to the English Premier League, Part One: Wigan Athletic

Over the next two months we’ll be looking at the Sky Bet Championship sides competing for promotion into the Premier League. The two teams with the highest point total on May 3rd will automatically ensure their bids, while the next four highest teams will enter a two-round knock-out playoff for the third and final spot. Today we look at a familiar face, the current FA Cup holders and recent victims of relegation, Wigan Athletic. *** On the outskirts of Greater Manchester, Wigan Athletic lies in the shadows of four great football clubs. Twenty miles to the west you’ll find the gates to Anfield Road and Everton’s Goodison Park. Twenty more east and you’ll be in the heart of Manchester and its teams red and blue. Miraculously, this little club, who toiled outside of the Football League’s top four divisions until 1978, spent the last eight seasons in the top flight. That is until 2013, an ignoble and unprecedented double which saw Wigan become the first team to win the FA Cup and be relegated in the same year. Now they find themselves back in the Championship and knocking on the Premier League’s door yet again. Formed in 1932, Wigan Athletic spent the first forty-five years of its existence competing solely in three of the local leagues that make up the lower half of the English football pyramid; the Cheshire County League, the Lancashire Combination, and the Northern Premier League. Their eyes, however, we’re always on promotion, having submitted thirty-four applications to the Football League over that span, all of which were denied. The Latics, as they’re called by their fans, were not without success during this spell. They managed to win four Cheshire League titles, and one each in the Lancashire Combination and Northern Premier League, before finally earning promotion to the fourth division in 1978 (you might as well bookmark that pyramid for reference). Yet even then their final promotion bears an asterisk, as the 1977-78 league-winners, Boston United, were denied entry to the upper level. United’s stadium couldn’t house the minimum attendance mandated by the Football League, but as the runners-up Wigan were eligible to qualify. So after four decades, the local side had finally made good--on account of a technicality. *** Wigan, now sporting today’s familiar blue and white kit (adopted after World War II),  bounced between the third and fourth divisions of the Football League (what is now known as Sky Bet League One and Two) for the next decade and a half, finishing as high as fourth place in the third division. By 1995, however, the team was dwelling in the fourth division’s cellar and attendance had reached its lowest point of all time, yet their status in the Football League was about to change overnight. Dave Whelan, a former Blackburn Rovers fullback who made a fortune in the sporting goods business, purchased his hometown team with the audacious intent to take them into the Premier League. Aside from replacing the team’s Heinz sponsorship with his company’s own JJB Sports logo, Whelan’s first major investment was a trio of Spanish players, including a talented midfielder named Roberto Martinez. With over 180 appearances at the club, the midfielder led the team to a Division Three championship in 1997 and a Football League Trophy in 1999. Yet, it would be his return to the club as manager that would earn the Latics their most significant trophy. On the heels of the Martinez-led successes and Dave Whelan’s continued investments, including a new 25,000 seat stadium, Wigan continued to climb the Championship table. Finally, at the end of the 2002-2003 season the team won promotion to the highest level of English football for the first time in its history. For a small post-industrial town like Wigan, whose sporting fans love to bicker about the merits of the city’s accomplished rugby team versus the perennially underperforming Latics, this promotion was vindication for years of passion. The Latics would reward their fans with eight consecutive seasons at the top. *** That is until last season. With former club talisman Roberto Martinez at the helm, Wigan Athletic reached both the apex and nadir of its stay at the top in just seventy-two hours. On May 11th, in the 91st minute of a scoreless draw with the FA Cup favorites Manchester City, midfielder Ben Watson - subbed on just ten minutes prior - shocked Wembley. His glancing header off of a Callum McManaman corner kick delivered the win as well as the side’s first major trophy in their eighty-year history. However the joy of FA Cup victory would not last. On May 14th, with just nine Premier League wins to their name thus far, Martinez’s exhausted Latics met an unforgiving Arsenal at the Emirates. The subsequent 4-1 drubbing ensured Wigan’s relegation back to the Championship. Martinez jumped ship in the ensuing summer, and signed a four-year deal to lead local rivals Everton. He also took the striker Arouna Kone and midfielder James McCarthy with him, bought out for a sum of $17 million. Management was able to hang on to a core of its youth, including the FA Cup heroes Watson and McManaman, and midfielder James McArthur. Notable returning veterans include the captain, defender Emmerson Boyce and goalkeeper Ali Al-Habsi. Facing a significant loss of revenue from relegation (including the Premier League’s busty TV deal that deposits $55 million to each team), Wigan brought in many of their replacements via free transfers and loans, shelling out just under $5 million on new signings. On-loan midfielder, Nick Powell, from Manchester United, leads the team with ten goals in all competitions. Martinez’s replacement, Owen Coyle, the former Bolton skipper, lasted just sixteen games into this season. Under his leadership, the Latics were languishing in 14th place with a record of just 6-4-6, when Whelan asked the Irish skipper to resign following a fan revolt during a three game skid. The next week the were unceremoniously dumped from the Europa League finishing at the bottom of their group. Coyle was replaced by the former German national and Manchester City striker Uwe Rosler, who has miraculously turned their fortunes around, delivering eight wins in his first sixteen matches in charge. Surprisingly, the Latics FA Cup title reign is still alive. They’ve survived five rounds so far, beating Milton Keynes Dons, Crystal Palace, and Cardiff City, and are set to face the recently crowned Capital One Cup champions Manchester City this Sunday, March 9th. Wigan will be looking to take revenge against the same City team that dispatched them from the third round of the League Cup on September 24th. Perhaps shades of Wembley will see them through to the semis. Last weekend’s 4-1 thumping of Nottingham Forest, their seventh win in eight league games for a total of 52 points, saw Wigan jump up to sixth place (the final play-off spot) for the first time since September. Despite losing Ben Watson to a double leg fracture just last month, the Latics are still on the rise and in control of their destiny. Currently fourteen points off second place, the automatic slots seem out of reach for the club, but there are fifteen games left to play, and eight or nine teams have a realistic shot at finishing the season in the playoffs. Wigan will need to continue their excellent run of form in order to grab enough points to see them through. Then they’ll need to conjure a little bit of their FA Cup magic to advance through the final two game playoff.

Next week….Nottingham Forest (55 pts).

This series is being brought to you by Justin Hargett. He lives in NYC and can be found on Twitter. 

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RB Leipzig and the future of the Bundesliga

Phillip OItermann has an interesting read in the Guardian today on RB Leipzig, a Red Bull-owned club currently climbing up the ranks of German football and threatening to effectively upend - even if they're still within the letter of the law - the current German regulations for owning a club in the Bundesliga system. Oltermann explains why in the article: 

But Germans fans don't just worry that RB Leipzig could compete with their teams for the league title in 2020. They fear that the rise of this club could undermine the very structures that have given German club football such a good name in recent years. The so-called "50+1" rule in the statutes of the German league association (DFL) guarantees that no investor can gain majority voting rights in a club registered as a stock company, thus giving members a crucial veto over issues such a ticket prices. RB Leipzig doesn't break the letter of the 50+1 rule – it does have a membership scheme, and it's not registered as a stock company anyway. But it does break the spirit: becoming an RB Leipzig member will set you back €800 a year, on top of a €100 first-time registration fee (for comparison, being a member of Bayern Munich costs €60 per season). On top of that, RB Leipzig reserve the right to reject any application without justification. As a result, more than four years into the club history, RB Leipzig have only 11 members – most of them employees of Red Bull (Bayern, for comparison, has 224,000). As the journalist Christoph Biermann wrote in a recent edition of 11 Freunde magazine: "It's hard to imagine a more blatant way in which RB Leipzig could break the 50+1 rule."

  The German model is rightly lauded for helping prevent deep-pocketed owners from building up dynasties without fan support, a la the rise of Monaco F.C. in France, but to the extent that parity matters, doesn't the system basically ensure that only established, big city clubs with massive fan bases can win the league? Is that even a problem? The seemingly endless growth of Bayern Munich at the expense of every other club does raise the question of whether the Bundesliga may, eventually, need to make some changes to allow for more parity, though I think most people would hope that there are other ways to do so (increased, and evenly distributed, tv revenues?) that don't do away with the justifiably admired 50+1  rule.

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The oral history of the U.S. team at the 1994 World Cup

The first two parts of a four-part oral history of the 1994 World Cup are currently up on ESPN and, particularly given that they're written by the incomparable Roger Bennett, are pretty much a must-read for fans of U.S. soccer or, really, anyone interested in this summer's World Cup in Brazil.

Here's a sample:

3. Jersey Boys: A vision in stonewash denim

Meola: We saw the jerseys for the first time about a month before the World Cup. We were in Dallas to play Bolivia and were instructed to turn up wearing jeans for a team photograph. The jersey was presented to us at a meeting by people from Adidas. Crickets. No one said a word. Then Mike Burns, who was sitting by me, started chuckling and the whole room erupted with shock and laughter.

Harkes: The jersey was bad, but the shorts were worse. They were made of the saddest material known to man.

Lalas: At first, a lot of us thought the jersey was a joke or a prank. When it dawned on us that was not the case, I was like, “Oh Crap!”  We were already under incredible pressure not to be a laughing stock and someone had thought it was a good idea for us to take the field in faux denim.

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The Crosstown Derby Episode 13: The West London Derby

Episode 13 of the Crosstown Derby is here!

In Episode 13 of the Crosstown Derby podcast, a longtime friend of the podcast joins us to discuss the West London Derby, a unique rivalry between four different clubs - Chelsea, Fulham, Queens Park Rangers, and Brentford - spanning three (and sometimes four) divisions.

But wait: we also find the time to discuss small-time hooliganism, court stormings, and are introduced to the "Emo to EPL" translator.

As usual, you can listen directly on the site via the player above or subscribe to the podcast in iTunes.

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Crosstown Derby's Premier League Picks, Week 28:

Poor Jozy. It's been a tough year. 

If you don't participate in the Fantasy Premier League - and don't get involved unless you're prepared for a season that stretches so long it makes the Major League Baseball season feel like a long weekend - you may not be aware that this stretch of the season is what I like to call "The Insanity Zone," where FA Cup, League Cup, Champions League, and Europa League commitments - not mention  weather-related delays - mean that any given fixture is likely to be moved to a later date, with the make-up date determined basically whenever they get around to it. It's maddening, and made even worse when you allow yourself to think about the books you could be reading or parents you could be calling instead of planning out your elaborate, 6-week "lineup maximization" plan. Best not to think too much about it.  On to the picks!  

Saturday, March 1st Everton v West Ham United

West Ham are playing their best football of the season, but I can't see them beating an Everton team surely looking for a palate-cleanser after last week's heartbreaking, last-minute loss to Chelsea. 

Everton 2-0

Fulham v Chelsea

A West London derby! Stay tuned later this weekend for a Crosstown Derby podcast about the surprisingly interesting history of the "Quad Derby" (which also features the less heralded Q.P.R. and Brentford). I can't see the influence of Felix McGath making much of a difference in this match. 

Chelsea 3-1

Hull City v Newcastle United

After 27 weeks, I'm finally sold on this Hull City team. They really deserve a ton of credit for their moves in the January transfer window - who knew that Jelavic would ever score another goal? 

Hull City 1-0

Stoke City v Arsenal

Arsenal's patented strategy of beating every team they're supposed to has worked out great this season and Stoke City definitely fall into that category (though it must be said that Stoke have already scored nice home wins against Chelsea and Man United this season). I think the revitalized Giroud/Rosicky tandem is enough to secure a win for Arsenal.

2-1 Arsenal

Southampton v Liverpool

By far the most interesting game of the weekend and one where you'd expect a ton of goals. Liverpool have won most of the wide-open matches they've played this season, but I love the resilience of this Southampton team and I think they'll find a way to earn a draw. 

2-2 draw

  Sunday, March 2nd  Aston Villa v Norwich City

A match-up between two of the most frustratingly inconsistent teams in the EPL. Aston Villa tend to look completely lifeless for weeks, then surprise everyone with a burst of 3-4 goals in one half. Both teams really need a point out of this one, but I think Aston Villa is overdue for their particular brand of frustrating, inexplicable excellence.

3-1 Aston Villa

Swansea City v Crystal Palace

With Swansea having just lost a tough, hard-fought Europa League match in Napoli just days before this match, this feels like a scoreless draw. 

0-0 draw

Tottenham Hotspur v Cardiff City

Everything happening around Cardiff City is awful and it's starting to feel reminiscent of the situation with Blackburn and Venky's a few years back. At this point poor, lifeless Cardiff seem almost certain to be relegated. 

3-0 Tottenham

  Bonus Pick: The League Cup Final

Man City-Sunderland

The first 15-20 minutes will probably tell you whether this will be an intense, closely-contested match, a la last year's FA Cup final, or if Man City just comes out and rolls them from the start. I'm leaning towards a Man City demolition...but hoping for a late winner from Jozy Altidore. 

Man City 4-1

Last Week: 4-6

Season: 130-118

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The Guardian: "What turns an American into a diehard Arsenal fan?"

Big shout-out to friend-of-the-Derby Sam Blum, who has a piece this morning in The Guardian (!) on how the EPL is taking root in the U.S. 

Considering how early you need to wake up to watch most EPL games on the West Coast, some of these supporters are borderline-heroic. I particularly liked hearing about the people who ended up for one reason or another choosing to support one of the less popular clubs:

And it isn’t always the teams with great histories that captivate American admirers. Take Stephanie Shapiro of New York, who absolutely adores Cardiff City.

Her ties to Cardiff began with a kind of roll of the dice – her husband, an Arsenal fan, asked her to pick a team to follow for the 2011 season:

As a fan of Doctor Who and Torchwood, I asked if Cardiff had its own team. This was in 2011, so they were still in the Championship League. I said perfect, because then I felt like there was less pressure to become an expert on soccer overnight.

 The whole article is worth a read - check it out!

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A great clip, via Jonathan Wilson, featuring hand-cranked footage of Newcastle United vs Liverpool from 1901. I particularly like the turn-of-the-century view of St. James' Park, the same ground (many renovations later) where Newcastle continue to play to this day.

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Heh.

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It's a fair point, and one that people should keep in mind when contemplating a post-Wenger future at Arsenal. The English press has such a manager-focused approach to their soccer coverage that they sometimes make it seem like the players themselves are largely irrelevant - they are either chess pieces propelled to victory by their manager's tactics or mindless warriors who achieve a kind of better-than-the-sum-of-their-parts greatness based entirely on the manager's motivational tactics and halftime speeches (granted, the post-Alex Ferguson era at Man United does give the latter idea some credence).

I'm a massive fan of Arsene Wenger - his intelligent, principled, attack-minded approach was what led me to become an Arsenal fan  - but managers like Jurgen Klopp and Roberto Martinez prove that other people have found a way to achieve success with a similarly positive, budget-focused approach. Arsene Wenger turns 65 this year and within the next 2-3 years I suspect Arsenal fans will have a chance to see a new manager - ideally Klopp, who seems like the perfect fit - attempt to put their own stamp on the club. 

Just occasionally the blind adoration of our ‘current’ manager riles me ever so slightly. The over playing of how Wenger completely transformed Arsenal and indeed the whole of English football could be perceived as slightly disrespectful to those who have gone before.

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Josh's EPL picks: Week 27

Poor, forgotten Jack Rodwell. Can we blame David Moyes for this, too? 

With the FA Cup, Champions League, and the Olympics all taking place in the last week - with the less said about the performance of the EPL clubs in the Champions League the better -  it seems like ages since the last EPL matches were played instead of, somewhat incredibly, just 9 days.  With everything in the league still very up much up in the air - Arsenal, Chelsea, and Man City continue to battle for 1st, 8-10 teams are looking to avoid joining Fulham at the bottom of the table - this week's matches, alas, don't look likely to offer much resolution. Of this week's 10 matches, Chelsea-Everton is the only game I'd call a "must-watch " (or, given that starts at 7:45 AM EST, maybe it's more of a "try to watch"), so let's start there... Saturday, 2/22

Chelsea v Everton It was heartening to see Everton dismantle Swansea in the FA Cup on Sunday, as it had been a while since they'd had the type of dominant, confidence-building performance they'd had so many times in the first half of the season. While Lukaku's unavailability leads me to err on the side of picking Chelsea, they aren't having the run of inspired football many expected after their performance against Man City at the Etihand, with two draws and a loss in their last four matches.  In addition, with Chelsea playing their opening fixture in the round of 16 on Tuesday, Mourinho could theoretically gamble and rest a few players in this match. I think this game ends up resembling the close, hard-fought draw Everton played against Arsenal a few weeks ago.  Prediction: 1-1 draw.

Arsenal v Sunderland

A nice, simple bounce-back game for Arsenal...right?

2-0 Arsenal 

Cardiff City v Hull City

There's a strong chance this is Wilfred Zaha's breakout game in the EPL. I might just keep writing this for all Cardiff matches until it happens. Which it will. Soon. Like, this week. Probably. 

1-0 Cardiff

Manchester City v Stoke City

Things are getting pretty weird for Manchester City, who miss two consecutive weeks in the a row in the EPL after this game, thanks to their extended runs in the Champions League, FA Cup, and League Cup. With a wind-delayed game against Sunderland also in need of a replay later this spring, the new few weeks should be a fascinating test of their depth. Might we even see the forgotten Jack Rodwell at some point? 

3-0 Man City

West Bromwich Albion v Fulham

Fulham on the road => ugly loss. 

3-1 West Brom 

West Ham United v Southampton

It looks like West Ham is going to avoid being relegated this season on the basis of their defense alone, which has gone up another level with the introduction of Adrian in goal. Southampton is the better team, but scoring against the in-form West Ham defense will be a test. 

0-0 draw 

Crystal Palace v Manchester United

At this point, would you even be surprised if Crystal Palace won this game? As with Chelsea, David Moyes may field a less than full-strength line-up with a midweek Champions League game to come. 

1-0 Man United  Sunday, 2/23 Liverpool v Swansea City

Livepool have basically eviscerated everyone at Anfield this season and there's no reason to believe Swansea have what it takes this season to avoid a similar fate.

4-0 Liverpool 

Newcastle United v Aston Villa Newcastle have clearly given up, post-Cabaye, and who can blame them when their management makes their lack of ambition so painfully clear?  2-0 Aston Villa Norwich City v Tottenham Hotspur A possible trip-up game for Tottenham with several big league matches to come after this match, but in their current form they're heavy favorites to win at Carrow Road.  2-1 Tottenham    Last Week: 6-2 Season: 126-112

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Can't wait to read this! And if you haven't Toby "friend of the derby" Carroll's awesome review in Deadspin, definitely click on the link Stephanie provided above. 

I finished Red or Dead by David Peace weeks ago and I still don’t know what to say about it, which was really bugging me, because I enjoyed it beyond all reason and wanted to write something that would convince all of you to give it a try. Luckily for me, Toby went ahead and wrote a highly literate and thoughtful review of the book, so I no longer feel I need to write about it.

So let me just say this, then. This book is a fucking masterpiece, okay? It’s worn me down and that is all I can say, because I’d rather think about it than talk about it. I have nothing thoughtful to offer you, nothing insightful, no new connections, no nothing, because this book is smarter and better than me, and I loved every second of it. I do hope it is the same for you.

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An interesting infographic look at the first leg of the Arsenal-Bayern Champion's League match. A 22% change of winning for Arsenal - at home no less - seems a bit low, doesn't it? 

I'm feeling slightly more optimistic about this match after Sunday's 2-1 win over Liverpool, particularly with a healthy Jack Wilshere back in the squad and Frank Ribery and Xherdan Shaqiri out for Bayern due to injury (not, granted, that it really matters much on such a loaded team).

It certainly wouldn't be a shock if we saw a repeat of last year's 3-1 home defeat, but this team is playing significantly better defensively this season - boosted by the stability of the Koscielney/Mertesacker partnership this season, as well as Flamini's presence in front of the defense - and I think this will be a tight, low-scoring affair regardless of the outcome.

Flamini in particular will be of vital importance in this match, with the one upside of his recent 4-match FA ban being that he should be extremely fresh and ready to do what he does best: spend 90 minutes committing borderline-dirty tackles and generally making life miserable for the other team's playmakers. 

My (biased) prediction: 1-0 Arsenal.

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Juan Mata meets Diego Maradona.

best comment on this picture: “Well, at least it’s not the hover hand of God”