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bluest-of-bells · 11 months ago

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Real strategy isn't the same as what they show in the movies.

That's the long and short of it.

Real strategic thinking doesn't look the way most people think it does, and c!Dream's strategy aligns very closely to the irl study of strategy and game theory. As you can see in the way he approaches his relationship with c!Technoblade, how he went about the Independence War or the way he uses some of his tactics.

As such, it can be hard to spot the mechanisms which make his strategies so successful unless you're already familiar with the subject. But you don't need to be an expert to see the fact he's very good at achieving the concrete goals he puts in front of himself.

Fact is, his strategies won him wars.

Fact is, Staged Finale was such a successful gambit that it not only fooled the in-universe characters, but all of fandom too.

Fact is, we never saw another character successfully pull a gambit that even approached c!Dream's level and he pulled them off consistently.

The asker is operating under an inherently flawed premise. A good strategy isn't one that takes into account all possible existing variables and has an answer for each nitpick and wild possibility. It's not a recipe that's supposed to be followed with extreme precision, where any deviation from it is a failure.

That's not humanly possible without being able to literally see the future. The only place you would see such a thing is fiction, where narrative gods can grace whichever character they want with success and omniscient knowledge.

A good strategy is somewhere between a framework and a toolbox. It's the goals you're striving towards and what advantages or tactics you can use in order to achieve said goal. It's half stacking the deck in your favor in advance and half trusting your future self to be able to problem solve successfully and adapt to any unexpected circumstances with the tools you prepared ahead of time.

Something which canon in general (and Punz' video showing the behind the scenes of the Independence War in particular) shows us that c!Dream is pretty damn good it.

You may think the end-goal is stupid. You may not. It doesn't matter either way, because the value of the end goal says fuck all about the value of the strategy. The sole criteria which determines the value of a strategy is "Does it achieve the goal at an acceptable cost?".

And for c!Dream, the vast majority of the time the answer is a resounding YES.

(Bonus question: If c!Dream is such a bad strategist, how come my knowledge of irl game theory and strategy allowed me to predict the disc confrontation was actually staged or even c!Dream's ultimate goal months before canon confirmed it?)

to be honest, I think fandom exaggerating dream's analytical and intelligent abilities dream's plan is literally so stupid, like, many refer to it as "ignoring feelings for the sake of strict calculation, the end justifies the means blah blah blah a smart, logical plan that will nevertheless lead to psychological dissatisfaction", but the plan is literally the most ill-conceived thing I ever heard, like, that's not even a plan?? they're testing the revival book in hopes that one day it will somehow help them achieve immortality and restart the server - that's just ridiculous and I also have no idea how dream expects that restarting the server will solve his/their/servers problems, like how is that supposed to work? and this “if we are immortal, no one will have to suffer and we can live forever and know and blah blah blah” such naive crap, honestly I could ask a thousand probing questions or give a thousand reasons why this plan wouldn't work in any reality, and I doubt dream wouldn't have asked these questions in the months they've been running their tests; the plan is literally just his feelings: afraid to die → need immortality, lost everything and it's killing me → need a restart and so on - there's no analysis behind this shit

I literally find it strange not the fact that punz allows this, although the plan harms dream, but the fact that he really believes in this plan and follows it, like, come on, punz is +- fine, there is no trauma that can overshadow his ability to think, why is he indulging in this stupid idea?

strongly agree / agree / ambivalent / disagree / strongly disagree / don’t care whatsoever

I think you're conflating a bunch of things. Dream's plan is not the same as his methodology. His methodology is not the same as his motivations. Having emotional reasons for a plan is not the same thing as that plan being stupid. "lost everything and it's killing me → need a restart" isn't a description of a stupid plan, that's a description of an over-emotional motivation for a plan. Just because you disagree with what his goal was trying to achieve doesn't mean that the strategies he took to achieve that goal were stupid.

Like, take staged finale as an example. I can argue that it's overkill or a poorly considered goal to imprison himself in dangerous circumstances chiefly to achieve a) protecting his close ally b) getting the server off his back and c) getting a sick base. But I won't claim that the steps he took to set up and execute staged finale aren't evidence of someone successfully using strategic thinking to accomplish his goals, which is generally what people are talking about when invoking strategist!Dream.

Dream expecting that his plan will fix his emotional problems isn't stupid in that it's a failure of logic. It's stupid in that it's a failure in identifying that his problems are actually emotional. Which gets covered pretty handily in the genuine finale! Tommy didn't say "your plan is stupid because you neglected to consider these reasons that curing death won't actually work." Instead, Tommy said, "your plan is stupid because you're failing to see that you're hurting people here and now and you could have the friends you want here and now if you just put down your damn book and make peace." which, I'm gonna be honest, also sounds a bit like naive crap to me.

Also, you're acting as if his plan is based simply on an unspecified fear of death when all signs point to it literally being a reaction to the existence of the revival book! Like, sure, when you phrase it like "hur dur maybe this magic book will fix my problems" it sounds pretty stupid. But what actually happened was more along the lines of "permadeath didn't exist on this server as a concept, now it does. revival didn't exist on this server as a concept, now it does. maybe one of these can be used to fix the other." Which is pretty damn straightforward to my eyes!

I really, truly don't see what the problem is with "plan fix death" when you literally have a necromancy book. (Like, logistically, not ethically or whatever.) It seems like the supernatural complications with the balance of life and death, whatever XD's deal is, the server reset, Foolish and the experiments upsetting the balance, all of that, came later (and lacks its conclusion for doylist reasons). but WHY the complaint that fixing death doesn't make sense????? that's like. thing numero uno when you have a damn revival book. sorry if I'm getting carried away but I've seen this argument before and it genuinely makes no sense to me. Reads the same to me as "if you have a hammer and some wood and nails why are you trying to build a table." maybe because I have the tools for the job?

Not to mention that even if we pretended that Dream's only motivation was trying to stop conflict, the plan "learn how to revive people" is still a really obvious solution! Make conflict not have permanent consequences? that's like. an easy mitigating solution.

Also, there's a more general conflation happening here between Dream's unwellness and a more general notion of stupidity. Which I also disagree with. His paranoid spiral led to him locking himself in a prison, but that doesn't mean it was stupid for him to conclude he needed protection, and that his allies needed protection.

The thing with Punz is a separate question, but it's one that I think Punz has answered handily himself: Punz wants knowledge and power, he says so outright, in simple language. He's not indulging a stupid idea: he's in cahoots with a guy who's brought him a ton of knowledge and power. The revive book is real, it's got real results, and it's shown Punz a glimpse of a world he clearly thinks is achievable: a world in which the supernatural shit has indeed been solved. And I don't see why you think he's silly to believe so, given the evidence he's seen with his own eyes.

#blue talks #dsmp #c!dream

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bluest-of-bells · 1 year ago

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This is some really good compilation, well done. However let me offer a few corrections as well as additions of scenes that were missed and some statements from cc!Dream.

(Apologies for the sources being somewhat sporadic. I don't want to make writing this take forever so I'm using mostly what I already have on hand rather than going out searching for it.)

So first of all for some context, here's what cc!Dream had to say about the revive book's creation ooc.

"I remember during the original or one one of the wars when it was like Schlatt against everyone essentially that originally was supposed to be shot in like a bunch of people. It was supposed to be like 50/50, everyone-going-against kind of fighting that war, but then it was going to be like me on that side, etcetera. And then nobody ended up. Like being on Schlatt side. And so I was like, fuck, like, no one wants to be viewed as the villain in this in this case, other than Schlatt, who obviously didn't care. And so I was like, OK, I guess I need to swap to the other side. But like, why would I do that? And that's how the revival book like came about. It was to cover that plot hole because I literally just switched for no reason. We had no reason for me to switch, it was just hey we literally need otherwise it's just Schlatt versus everyone and obviously he just loses. So we needed- they needed me to switch and so I just switched and I was like look we'll just we'll figure out how to explain it later and everyone was like OK and then later I was like what if Schlatt had a revival book, blah, blah, blah. So that was kind of how the revival book. Came to be. That's why I'm never said that. It's kind of new lore. Yeah, I feel like it kind of it happened like that because I feel like there was times where I kind of filled into the villain role because of the fact that no one else wanted to or could. Or whatever. I did that a couple of times and I just realized like, oh, I guess this, this is my character, you know? I'll kind of evolve my character and in that in that direction. So yeah."(x)

So I think it's pretty safe to say that in-universe c!Dream got the revive book not long before Nov 6th. At the very least we can guesstimate the date based on when people defected from Manburg.

We do actually have a small sliver of c!Dream commenting on the circumstances of how he got the revive book, in what seems to be a slip of the tongue.

Dream: “[Schlatt] gave me the revive book after- …before he died.” (23:48)

About exile, we can pretty confidently say that Dream's goal with exiling Tommy was to get the disc that Tubbo had.

cc!Dream had this to say about Dream's motivation for exile:

c!Dream liked the feeling of power and control that c!Tommy’s friend exiling him gave him. He wanted c!Tommy to feel so isolated that he eventually viewed c!Dream as his only friend, and would help c!Dream’s goals Would have worked if it wasn’t for c!Techno living nearby(x)

The first line is merely describing c!Dream emotional state rather than implying it's the cause (and really, who can blame him for the schadenfreude after all of c!Tommy's bullshit lol). The second line confirms that the whole "I'm your only friend" shtick was a means to an end for the sake of a certain goal, rather than being an end to itself as some interpretations suggest (mostly inniter interpretations).

Which brings us to the question of what said goal is. If we look at his actions around that time period, his behaviour at the green festival jumps up as a moment where he abruptly shifts his methods in a rather blatant way, which suggests there was an accompanying shift in priorities. A shift that can happen either when new and important information is introduced that changes things (nothing like that seems to happen during the green festival) or when a goal is accomplished and Dream shifts to pursuing his next one.

Considering that Dream gets hold of the disc there, through means that he developed during the exile period, and that his behaviour abruptly changes from his more reasonable demeanor to his mustache twirling villain persona the minute he gets the disc, it seems safe to suggest that his goal was getting the disc.

Also, during the exile negotiations he says he'll willing to not have Tommy punished if they give him the disc, so there's that. (Pretty sure it happened on Nov 28th, but it could've also been Dec 2nd.)

(Btw, we can track his plot to get the disc as far back as Nov 18th, when he and Puffy griefed a bunch of houses and framed Tommy for it. He convinces the pissed off people to confront Tommy the next time he logs on. While this exact plan falls through, it's pretty indicative of his intention.

I find it pretty hilarious that he needn't have bothered. Tommy ended up doing his job for him by griefing George's house XD)

This is something I would argue is very much the cornerstone of c!Dream’s tactician skills: he’s good at grasping opportunities in the moment. That’s not me saying that he can’t make a long-term plan, he very much can, but that more often than not he’s rolling with the punches as best he can.

You're 100% correct about that. I'll elaborate on this later, but this is something a lot of people don't get about c!Dream's strategizing. They think he's following a recipe (as that's the common way media portrays mastermind strategists) but in truth it's closer to him preparing himself a box of tools and trusting his skills to allow himself to achieve a set of objectives.

New L'Manberg who are scrambling to rebuild. War just… isn’t viable.

"Not viable" is a hell of an understatement. Between Tubbo, Fundy and Quackity they had one (1) sharpness 1 diamond sword... and that's about it. Quackity argued that they could recruit Techno to fight against Dream (I think his reasoning what that Dream was acting tyrannical? Or something similar about him liking taking governments down), which, lol. Lmao, even.

To make matters worse, they discussed recruiting Techno like 15 minutes before they had to talk to Dream and announce their decision, while Dream showed up in fully enchanted netherite AND Punz and Sapnap were also there with fully enchanted netherite.

So yeah, war was pretty "not viable".

It is very notable, however, that this decision was originally made. Because it was c!Dream who they were at odds with.

Their decision was also influenced by Quackity recounting the events of Mexican L'manburg that happened the day before. A recounting that was basically slander with how inaccurate and bad faith it was, especially because Dream explained to him in a one on one conversation his reasoning and motivations so it's not like he didn't know them. (At least it was really funny to see Q's chat going "Dream's actually making some good points..." during that conversation.)

It is also here I posit that this is one of the under-recognised turning points for c!Dream; it is here that he has emphasized to him just how far and how much people are willing to risk out of hatred for him, even beyond the point of peace, beyond the point of sense.

I'm not sure I agree with that, at least not from an in-universe perspective. Dream wasn't aware of what was exactly said in NLM's conversation's, so it couldn't really influence his mindset.

On 5th December 2020, c!Dream commissions c!Sam to build him the prison.

Technically he commissioned Sam on Dec 4th, the day Tommy got exiled. On Dec 5th, Sam talked on stream about how Dream commissioned him yesterday off screen. On Dec 6th they started building the prison and when the egg first appeared. (btw, there may be a day's difference between the dates I provide and the ones you have due to time zones.)

Another important scene that happen on Dec 6th is the one where Dream hints at the revive book's existence to Sam and Bad while they're building the prison. It's important to note that he brings this out of nowhere as nothing in the preceding conversation leads up to it.

Dream: “I have actually not ever to this point brought this up so this is interesting. Do you remember whenever I switched sides, like I was helping Pogtopia - mostly just because I didn’t like L’manburg and Manburg, I don’t like their government and I switched sides to Schlatt.” Sam: “Who died.” Dream: “And he died. But the reason I switched sides is because he gave me something in order to switch sides to him and I mentioned that I didn’t say what it was though but he did give me something.” (…) BBH: “Was it diamonds?” Dream: “No, *laughs*. But that card is always up my sleeve until I need it.” (…) Dream: “I won’t go into specifics, but what he gave me was a book.” (…) Dream: “I think it’s the most valuable thing on the server.” (01:06:51)

This scene has pretty interesting implications, especially because we know for a fact that the prison wasn't initially meant to imprison Dream due to word of god by cc!Dream.

"The prison wasn’t built for Dream. The prison was built for the, for fulfilling Dream’s goals overall and the ability to do that and one of those things was to– Obviously, there’d be, there’d be certain people that would be more likely to get in the way and unlikely to– And, and also having the understanding of the fact that there was a revival book. Dream, after kind of becoming aware of that and, and coming to possession of one himself, Dream had the idea that, well, you know, what if. What if somebody like Techno or somebody like, you know, somebody strong."(x)

(That's only the most relevant part of the transcript. The link has the transcript for the full answer as well as a couple of others + timestamps and links to the clip.)

In addition, c!Tommy - after journeying through the Nether with c!Dream, c!Sapnap and c!Ghostbur - stares down at the lava below and appears to contemplate jumping. c!Dream stops him. This is literally the second day of his exile.

Tommy very much came into exile in an already pretty messed up state. Aside from his truly erratic behavior following Pogtopia as well as his hair trigger temper that's spectacularly visible during Tommy's probation, we also have him saying during the exile negotiations that he didn't sleep properly that night (which may help explain the truly incredible chain of logic that led him to try and blackmail Dream with Spirit).

Last but not least, we have him explicitly saying he's haunted by Wilbur's breakdown in Pogtopia, to the point where Wilbur’s “let’s be the bad guys” line rings through his head when he tries to sleep(x).

On 15th December 2020, c!Tommy runs away from Logstedshire and builds a secret basement under c!Techno’s house, effectively ending his banishment. He has been exiled for 9 days.

On December 16th actually, same day as Techno's execution. Also, I think your math is wrong. Tommy was exiled on Dec 4th, which means he was exiled 12 or 13 days (timezones truly make it a mess to calculate without manually going and counting the streams.)

While I'm uncertain of the other deaths, I know c!Jack's death during that time is canonical and is in fact a big catalyst in his own personal storyline.

As for c!Dream’s intentions during Exile, it is at least one of them that the idea is to bring c!Tommy - a notorious troublemaker who incites a lot of violence across the SMP - under control, hoping to declaw him. It is also possible that c!Dream is thinking ahead to crafting a reason for c!Tommy to hate him and come after him personally - but I would actually argue that there is more evidence for c!Dream planning to end up in prison being cemented later than Exile, so bear with me on that.

I'm curious as to your reasoning for saying that Dream's intentions are at least partly based on on bringing Tommy under control, especially since you're presenting it as a certainty rather than conjuncture. /gen

That possibility seems unlikely to me even if staged finale hadn't been conceived by that point, as it doesn't matches up to Dream's usual goal setting methodology. Dream's goals tend to share three distinct traits: they're reasonably achievable with minimal reliance on luck, they're specific and can easily be categorized in a binary of done/not done, and they're decisive meaning that they either give Dream a distinct advantage or a result which can't be easily overturned.

Abusing Tommy into being a law abiding member of society is debatably specific and not at all decisive, as it's a state that Dream would have to maintain indefinitely rather than something with a fixed endpoint. Even in using Tommy to help Dream get the discs, there's a distinct endpoint in which the result is achieved.

I also doubt that Dream was thinking of ways to make Tommy come after him during exile. Not necessarily because of timeline reasons so much as because we see later on that the method he uses for that is acting like a mustache twirling villain, and in exile he doesn't twirl his mustache nearly enough.

There's also how mixing different priorities into one action can end up with a method that ends up achieving neither, and so should be done carefully. Dream's priority during exile is to get him to a state where he'll help Dream. If those things also end up helping with the next goal of getting Tommy to chase after him that's a welcome bonus, but he wouldn't go out of his way to do it.

I personally feel that [Technoblade's execution] is another notable point for c!Dream: first, that no matter who you are or how powerful you are, you can still be gotten the better of, so you’d better have a back-up plan, and second, that people don’t care if you’re leaving them alone, they’ll go after you anyway.

The first point is something that Dream lived and breathed since the very beginning. His hesitation to fight Sam on Nov 16 (after the war is already over) because Sam is acting like he has some unbeatable trick up his sleeve shows this clearly, but you can also see this in Dream's consistent tendency to overestimate his opponents and over-prepare for fights. Punz' behind the scenes video for the independence war shows that quite well. The sheer difference between Dteam's preparations and L'manburg's is genuinely comical.

Dream actually expresses a similar sentiment to the one you describe in your second point in his conversation with Punz the day after Techno's execution. He even specifically assumes that NLM are going to go after him next since they already went after Techno.

[Dream's conversation with Punz on Dec 17th] is our first piece of evidence that c!Dream is planning Staged Finale, in the direct aftermath of c!Techno’s execution, and is bringing c!Punz on board, as well as the two acknowledging that c!Punz is not safe being openly allied to c!Dream. It is only at this point that we can firmly say that c!Dream is planning to lock himself up in prison.

In addition to the content of the scene, we also have cc!Punz uploading this specific scene to twitter the day staged finale got confirmed during the prison break. He later talked about how he had to sit on it for so long but now everyone can see what came out of it.(x)

6th January 2021 - Doomsday. c!Dream, along with c!Techno and c!Philza, destroy New L'Manberg. c!Punz fights with New L'manberg during the battle, ingratiating themselves to the New L'Manbergians. This is also notable for being one of the times where c!Dream openly plays into c!Tommy’s perception of him as being obsessed with c!Tommy, stating that he’ll always keep c!Tommy around to torment because it’s more fun that way. I personally feel that you can really see the seeds of Staged Finale being sown here, which neatly brings us to…

Doomsday and staged finale are two parts of the same plan. Staged finale couldn't have happened as it did without Dream going about Doomsday in the way he had.

As soon as Dream gets his hand on the disc, he starts acting like the most stereotypical villain and doesn't really stop (aside from the times he's with Techno). By doing so, he primes people to believe that he really is the cliche villain before he brings out the truly ridiculous parts like the attachment vault and the monologuing.

More than that, by establishing himself as a supervillain, he not only manages to neatly separate himself from his previous actions (at that point nobody saw him as a representative of the dream smp faction, unlike before), he also turns everyone against him. After all, half the people that came to Tommy and Tubbo's rescue at the disc finale weren't there because they cared so much (some of the literally wanted to kill them) but because they hated Dream. if there were any remaining fraying bridges between him and the rest of the people on the server, Dream made sure to torch them.

The combination of the crazy supervillain way that Dream went about Doomsday, as well as it's resounding success created the sentiment that he was a villain who's too dangerous to handle. A sentiment which is vital for his ploy at staged finale to work.

16th January 2021, c!Foolish arrives on the server and c!Dream gives him a brief tour before leaving and saying that he’s “not supposed to be in the general SMP area”. More importantly, this is the day that c!Dream makes the ultimatum regarding the discs, delivering the compass to c!Tommy’s base and setting the date. At this point, c!Dream is fully locked into Staged Finale.

Fun fact, Ranboo is the one who griefed Tommy's base (and likely also the one who delivered the compass). When watching Ranboo's stream from the same day, he pulls attention to the fact his inventory is oddly organized (implying enderboo was active and doing things). In his chests that he opens soon after, we can see a few stacks of netherrack and an almost broken flint and steel on the last row of items there. The exact items used to grief Tommy's house.

And finally on the 20th January 2021, Staged Finale happens, where c!Dream is killed twice by c!Tommy and imprisoned inside Pandora’s Vault. It is pretty clear that at the very least his second death was highly unlikely to have been in his plan.

I disagree that Dream second death wasn't in the plan. All his arguments to Tommy about why he shouldn't be killed are the same cliche lines of the persona he uses. He also could've, quite easily, brought up the revive book sooner and prevented this death. (It's not like he didn't realize Tommy wanted to kill him. Especially not when he deliberately acted in a way to make Tommy hate his guts.)

And honestly, it makes sense. Strictly speaking, the first two lives don't actually do anything except act as a safety net. It's only the presence of the third life that creates a meaningful change. And it's not exactly like he needs this safety net considering Punz can revive him if worst come to worst.

Between c!Vikk’s last public appearance on 4 Jan and Staged Finale being locked in on 16 Jan, there is a span of only 12 days.

Tommy receiving the invitation was on Jan 16th, Staged finale was on Jan 20th. So 16 days overall.

This means that 1. c!Dream and c!Punz didn’t originally think that the Disc Confrontation would be that violent (that is, that c!Dream would be in danger of being murdered, not just imprisoned), and so in the aftermath of the Green Festival hastily kidnapped and tried to ensure that c!Dream had a back-up plan and something to bargain with should it turn so. This introduces an element of panic, and of rushing, to the story - which I feel would be objectively very well-fitting, considering how fast everything is happening (more on that in a second).

The facts don't necessarily support that conclusion. Strictly speaking, Dream didn't need to have the revive book in order to pull off staged finale. He just had to figure out something that made him too valuable to kill. Had the revive book turned out to be a sham, Dream would've certainly conducted the staged finale in a different manner that didn't necessarily put him in a position to be killed.

Or it means that 2. c!Dream and c!Punz experimented with the revival mechanic prior to experimenting on c!Vikk and c!Lazar. This opens up the time period from the moment c!Dream received the book (highly likely to be some time between 16 Oct - 6 Nov), to 16 Jan when c!Dream sets Staged Finale into motion. This is interesting in a different way, because if this is true then c!Dream and c!Punz didn’t test it on other humans (though I would presume they tested it on animals) before Staged Finale - this would also make the death experiments with c!Vikk and c!Lazar far more about learning about limbo and ghosts and such, rather than if revival even works in the first place.

The video of the revival experiments seems to argue against it. Dream and Punz explicitly say they aren't sure if the book works, hence the reason for the experiments.(x)

Also, c!Dream mentions that one of the rules of the revive book is that it doesn't work on animals or pets, similarly to the death book, so they couldn't have tested it on animals.

We do know that they did experiment on each other, not only because they say so during the Genuine Finale streams, but because c!Dream dies twice during Staged Finale and seems to have one remaining canon life despite losing one to c!Tommy ambushing and killing him during the early DSMP era.

That death had never been declared canon, so this argument doesn't work.

Which brings up the question: could c!Dream have revived c!Tommy if he had died during Exile? He says he could have done in the Genuine Finale streams, but how much of that could be put down to retroactively assigning control over events where he didn’t have it?

Well, he did have the revive book at the time, he just wasn't sure it worked. If Tommy died he wouldn't really lose anything from trying the book out on him. Plus during Genuine Finale he already knew the book worked, so he knew that if Tommy died in exile, he would've definitely been able to revive him.

Besides, the revive book isn't something that comes from the social sphere like your example of him losing control over his narrative. It's a concrete tool at his disposal. Even when spiraling, his planning tends to be the part that falls apart the least (which is what makes his panic post-prison so much more notable for how it does interfere with it, like during LN5.)

I think he’s an extremely adept opportunistic tactician, and he definitely has strategic capabilities (...) He spends a lot of his time with half a plan, mostly more of a goal he’s aiming towards, and his own skills to see him through.

You hit the nail right on the head. Dream's strategizing isn't following one set plan, or even a plan with a lot of contingencies. It's about recognizing what the win condition for his goal is and figuring out a path to it. Except, that's not really something which can be pre-planned when there are so many variables involved. Even someone with crazy good predictive skill like Dream (see: him predicting how the independence war would end before it even began in Punz' behind the scenes vid) can't predict things to the level needed in order to make something like that viable. It's just not humanly possible.

Instead what he does is create a lot of little plans (contingency, counters, preparations for any point of failure he can thing of), stacks the deck in his favor with as many advantages as possible and creates a framework for him to navigate in (his priorities, his win conditions, useful tactics). Everything else is him dynamically adapting to a situation using all the stuff he has pre-prepared.

And that's exactly what makes him such a scary strategist in the first place.

Plans that rely too heavily on prediction are rigid and brittle. They lack the capacity to take advantage of opportunities, and risk falling apart in the even of something unexpected happening. Dream's adaptability allow him to get all the advantages from being flexible while still maintaining the efficiency the pre-planning offers.

He's also definitely primarily a strategist, despite his great tactical ability. Dream doesn't work towards winning an encounter, he works towards leveraging it. The final control room's purpose wasn't to kill all of L'manburg's soldiers (It's minecraft, what was that going to do?), it was to steal L'manburg's most valuable items and use them as leverage to extract surrender.

Compare him to Techno, who's an amazing tactician but whose ability to leverage his wins in a fight to meaningful advancement of his goal is a lot weaker.

On Nov 16th, Techno won the battle he waged, yet that wasn't enough to prevent a new government from forming.

On Nov 16th, Dream lost the battle he waged, surrendered to his enemies who had his team greatly outnumbered, but he still managed to destroy L'manburg.

(Excuse me if this ended up devolving into ramble, it's quite late and I could talk about Dream and strategy for hours on end.)

You know, all I wanted to do was pinpoint the time period in which Staged Duo could have held and experimented on c!Vikk and c!Lazar.

So anyway, after several hours down a timeline rabbit hole, please behold a stretch of analysis spanning from Manberg to Staged Finale, positing the time period in which c!Dream got the Revive Book, potential moments where he committed to being locked up in the prison, the aforementioned experiment time span, and pretty much anything in between.

First: the Revive Book.

c!Jschlatt is the one to give c!Dream the Revive Book. This means that anywhere between 22nd September 2020, when c!Jschlatt wins the election and becomes the ruler of L'Manberg - now renamed Manberg - to the first time c!Dream mentions that c!Jschlatt gave him a book to buy his (outward) alliance to Manberg on 6th November 2020 is technically a viable time period for c!Dream to have received the Revive Book.

However, it is more likely that this time period is narrowed down further. The Red Festival (where c!Tubbo is executed on the podium etc) is held on 16th October 2020. It is far more likely that after this date is the time when c!Jschlatt is trying to buy allies, because it is at this point that a lot of Manberg's population is turning against him and destabilising the country, as well as the threat of Pogtopia being more prominent in this period. This makes for a highly likely three week stretch of time when c!Dream could have received the Revive Book: 16 Oct - 6 Nov 2020.

(During this time period, between the 6th - 8th October, DreamXD also makes his first non-canonical appearance on the DSMP, during the whole Dreamon Hunters thing that presumably got retconned out of existence. Just thought it'd be interesting to mention that.)

Second: Exile

(But first a brief side note that c!Vikk and c!Lazar first appear on the server on 23rd November 2020.)

On 28th November 2020, c!Tommy, along with c!Ranboo, robs and partially burns down c!George's house. c!Dream demands that he be punished for his crimes, and proposes to c!Tubbo the idea of c!Tommy being exiled. He organises a date to discuss further and c!Tommy is placed on probation (and has to write probation reports, lol).

On 2nd December 2020, c!Dream makes his "Spirit Speech" after c!Tommy attempts to blackmail him during the meeting. He makes an ultimatum to c!Tubbo that he has three days to choose whether or not to exile c!Tommy.

On 3rd December 2020, c!George is dethroned by c!Dream. The reason is that him being associated with c!Dream is making him a target (which it is), as well as the fact that c!George is failing to help keep the peace. c!Sapnap brings up c!Dream saying he doesn't care about anyone during the Spirit Speech, which... my guy, c!Dream has literally just said that anyone friendly with him is in danger, and he was making that speech to people who were actively antagonising him at that moment, including parading the remains of his dead pet in front of him. c!Sapnap and c!George walk away, and c!Dream lets them.

It could be very much argued that c!Dream didn't protest because he grasped upon the opportunity given; he knows it's safer for them to break from him. This is something I would argue is very much the cornerstone of c!Dream's tactician skills: he's good at grasping opportunities in the moment. That's not me saying that he can't make a long-term plan, he very much can, but that more often than not he's rolling with the punches as best he can.

On 4th December 2020, c!Tommy's exile begins - though not without some drama! Initially, New L'Manberg decided not to adhere to c!Dream's demand of c!Tommy being punished for robbery and arson, and instead decided to declare war on c!Dream and the Greater SMP.

However, when they arrive to tell c!Dream of this state of affairs, c!Tubbo reneges and acquiesces to exile c!Tommy instead, angry at his authority constantly being undermined by New L'Manberg and eager to avoid a war they simply can't afford. Like, they just won their last one on the infamous 16 Nov, and the Greater SMP is much more powerful than New L'Manberg who are scrambling to rebuild. War just... isn't viable.

It is very notable, however, that this decision was originally made. Because it was c!Dream who they were at odds with. That's how much they hate c!Dream: to be willing, even if briefly, to launch themselves into a whole new war as the foremost aggressors, just because it's c!Dream.

It is also here I posit that this is one of the under-recognised turning points for c!Dream; it is here that he has emphasised to him just how far and how much people are willing to risk out of hatred for him, even beyond the point of peace, beyond the point of sense.

On 5th December 2020, c!Dream commissions c!Sam to build him the prison. This is not necessarily the point where c!Dream decides to lock himself up in the prison, but it is indeed the first point where the prison becomes A Thing. There is definitely room here, for now, for c!Dream to be utilising the idea of the prison as a deterrent against attacking him/the Greater SMP, which is notable in the aftermath of yesterday, when a new war with New L'Manberg was only just avoided.

Also on this date, the very first signs of the Crimson Egg are noticed by c!Bad. In addition, c!Tommy - after journeying through the Nether with c!Dream, c!Sapnap and c!Ghostbur - stares down at the lava below and appears to contemplate jumping. c!Dream stops him. This is literally the second day of his exile.

On 15th December 2020, c!Tommy runs away from Logstedshire and builds a secret basement under c!Techno's house, effectively ending his banishment. He has been exiled for 9 days. To put that into perspective, c!Dream spent 312 days locked in prison.

During c!Tommy's exile, c!Dream destroys his items repeatedly and tries to reframe himself as c!Tommy's friend; between the two passes undeniable peer abuse (of the psychological and emotional variety), which is better known as bullying.

During these 9 days, c!Tommy receives multiple visitors, including c!Bad, c!Techno, c!Jack, c!Sam, c!Ghostbur and some others, and also receives various messages of support and gifts left for him. (He also kills a couple of his visitors, with dubious canonicity). Some of these c!Dream destroys, but others c!Tommy himself destroys, not wanting "pity items". He also begins to hallucinate (both visual and auditory) during this time. He perceives himself to be totally isolated, though this, objectively speaking, is not the case. c!Tommy's mental health is undeniably in a bad way during this time, but it cannot be solely rooted in Exile or in c!Dream, but rather earlier than that, though c!Dream definitely exacerbates it on purpose.

As for c!Dream's intentions during Exile, it is at least one of them that the idea is to bring c!Tommy - a notorious troublemaker who incites a lot of violence across the SMP - under control, hoping to declaw him. It is also possible that c!Dream is thinking ahead to crafting a reason for c!Tommy to hate him and come after him personally - but I would actually argue that there is more evidence for c!Dream planning to end up in prison being cemented later than Exile, so bear with me on that.

Third: c!Techno's execution through to Doomsday

On 16th December 2020, c!Technoblade is executed by the Butcher Army in New L'Manberg, despite having never gone near the place after being banished from it after 16 Nov. A Totem of Undying saves his life, while c!Dream and c!Punz interrupt to help him (and Carl the Horse) escape, which in turn leaves c!Techno owing c!Dream a favour.

I personally feel that this is another notable point for c!Dream: first, that no matter who you are or how powerful you are, you can still be gotten the better of, so you'd better have a back-up plan, and second, that people don't care if you're leaving them alone, they'll go after you anyway.

On 17th December 2020, c!Dream and c!Punz have a conversation regarding everything that just happened. c!Dream mentions that he is going to craft a plan to make everyone hate him/focus on him, and the two scheme to have a public "falling out" over the death of Bumpkin, c!Punz's horse. In reality, c!Punz will tame a fake Bumpkin and hide the real Bumpkin elsewhere (this exact plan falls through).

This is our first piece of evidence that c!Dream is planning Staged Finale, in the direct aftermath of c!Techno's execution, and is bringing c!Punz on board, as well as the two acknowledging that c!Punz is not safe being openly allied to c!Dream. It is only at this point that we can firmly say that c!Dream is planning to lock himself up in prison.

Over the Christmas 2020 period, c!Punz is very active around the SMP, while c!Dream is not nearly as active. This is one of our notable stretches of time where c!Dream spends the majority of it off-camera with his whereabouts unknown. During this time, it feels like everyone and their dog is planning to kill c!Dream, by the way. Shout out to c!Jack and c!Niki who are also planning to kill c!Tommy, though.

On 27th December 2020, c!Techno and c!Tommy have an encounter with c!Dream while sneaking around the SMP, who tries to convince c!Techno to turn on c!Tommy and give him back to c!Dream. c!Techno states that he and c!Tommy are currently allied, but that "could be changed" if c!Dream cashes in his favour. c!Dream declines to cash it in and lets them go. This is another piece of evidence for c!Dream thinking ahead and trying to stack as much in his favour as possible for the future - c!Techno's favour means more to him than control over c!Tommy in this moment.

4th January 2021, as best as I can tell, is the very final date that c!Vikk appears on the server. While c!Techno and c!Tommy are torturing c!Fundy, c!Vikk breaks in through the wall at 46:41 in Techno's VOD. It has to be after this date that he and c!Lazar are kidnapped by c!Dream and c!Punz. I will return to this in a later section.

On 5th January 2021, the Green Festival, where a whole bunch of people plan to kill c!Dream, occurs. They fail when c!Dream appears armoured (instead of unarmoured, as was agreed) and accuses c!Tommy of blowing up the Community House (which is the justification for not keeping to the no armour agreement since the accord between them has already been broken). In reality, c!Ranboo, in their Enderwalk state and on the orders of c!Dream, blew up the Community House, but that doesn't come out until later.

On this day, c!Tommy betrays c!Techno and re-joins New L'Manberg. The 24 hour warning for Doomsday is issued, with c!Dream offering his help to c!Techno, while c!Punz publicly supports c!Tommy and New L'Manberg, while in reality they are a spy. This is one of the first instances of c!Dream and c!Punz publicly distancing themselves from each other in the lead-up to Staged Finale.

6th January 2021 - Doomsday. c!Dream, along with c!Techno and c!Philza, destroy New L'Manberg. c!Punz fights with New L'manberg during the battle, ingratiating themselves to the New L'Manbergians. This is also notable for being one of the times where c!Dream openly plays into c!Tommy's perception of him as being obsessed with c!Tommy, stating that he'll always keep c!Tommy around to torment because it's more fun that way. I personally feel that you can really see the seeds of Staged Finale being sown here, which neatly brings us to...

Fourth: Post-Doomsday through to Staged Finale

16th January 2021, c!Foolish arrives on the server and c!Dream gives him a brief tour before leaving and saying that he's "not supposed to be in the general SMP area". More importantly, this is the day that c!Dream makes the ultimatum regarding the discs, delivering the compass to c!Tommy's base and setting the date. At this point, c!Dream is fully locked into Staged Finale.

(18th January 2021, as a side note, is the first canonical appearance of DreamXD when he breaks the Ender Portal that c!Techno and c!Philza are examining. This is also the day that c!Techno talks about founding the Anarchist Syndicate.)

On 19th January 2021, c!Punz is "recruited" by c!Tommy for Staged Finale via a chest full of items they say are beyond what c!Dream has ever given them.

And finally on the 20th January 2021, Staged Finale happens, where c!Dream is killed twice by c!Tommy and imprisoned inside Pandora's Vault. It is pretty clear that at the very least his second death was highly unlikely to have been in his plan. He will not escape until 28th November 2022, 312 days later.

Fifth: So... what else?

What else? One important question, really: when did c!Dream and c!Punz start experimenting with specifically revival?

Between c!Vikk's last public appearance on 4 Jan and Staged Finale being locked in on 16 Jan, there is a span of only 12 days. This allows, of course, for multiple experiments, but not for anything particularly long term or drawn out.

But we know that Staged Finale has been in the plans for longer than that - since 17 Dec, when c!Dream first brought it up to c!Punz, in the direct aftermath of c!Techno's execution, which I would personally say is the moment where c!Dream decided firmly on that particular use for the prison, even if he had been contemplating the idea before.

This means that 1. c!Dream and c!Punz didn't originally think that the Disc Confrontation would be that violent (that is, that c!Dream would be in danger of being murdered, not just imprisoned), and so in the aftermath of the Green Festival hastily kidnapped and tried to ensure that c!Dream had a back-up plan and something to bargain with should it turn so. This introduces an element of panic, and of rushing, to the story - which I feel would be objectively very well-fitting, considering how fast everything is happening (more on that in a second).

Or it means that 2. c!Dream and c!Punz experimented with the revival mechanic prior to experimenting on c!Vikk and c!Lazar. This opens up the time period from the moment c!Dream received the book (highly likely to be some time between 16 Oct - 6 Nov), to 16 Jan when c!Dream sets Staged Finale into motion. This is interesting in a different way, because if this is true then c!Dream and c!Punz didn't test it on other humans (though I would presume they tested it on animals) before Staged Finale - this would also make the death experiments with c!Vikk and c!Lazar far more about learning about limbo and ghosts and such, rather than if revival even works in the first place.

I suppose it also depends on whether or not you consider the Crimson Egg to be a symptom of the "corruption" the experiments caused or to be something else entirely separate. As a reminder, c!Bad first noticed signs of the Egg on 5 Dec, back during Exile, which would place the death experiments as occurring earlier than that.

c!Dream is notorious for this - for retroactively portraying himself to have had more control than he did, to have more power. Think of c!Wilbur - c!Dream lost control of the narrative surrounding himself in that very first conversation, before he knew what was happening, before he even knew that it was something he could lose. Leaning into this image others have of him, trying to own it, has been a long-standing c!Dream play, some attempt to regain control by acting like he never lost it in the first place. But he did.

c!Dream's power has never lain in the social sphere, and for all his intelligence, all his ability to leap and twist opportunities presented to him, he doesn't have much control over the narrative surrounding himself. The only way he could "reclaim it" somehow was by leaning into it.

And now I direct your attention to the overall time period we're looking at, here. At the longest possible point, from 22 Sep to 20 Jan, we're looking at 120 days for c!Dream to have had the Revive Book. More realistically, it would be somewhere between 16 Oct and 20 Jan, which is 96 days or less.

During this time, c!Dream had to juggle intra-server politics, dethronement, Exile, the Red and Green Festivals, c!Techno's execution, and Doomsday, not to mention every other stream he openly appeared in. And somehow perform experiments with the Revive Book in between all that. No wonder the guy said that "everything got... so jumbled" - everything happened so fast!

This man's life got destroyed in nine months (from April 2020, when the server began, to Staged Finale in January 2021), and his mental health took a very sharp downturn for about three months (or max four) after the Revive Book was given to him. This is one of the big reasons that I point to c!Dream doing a lot more rolling with the punches than people generally give him credit for; there simply wasn't enough breathing space for much else!

As far as long term plans go, Staged Finale and the set up for it is the only confirmed canon one for this time period, which I personally feel, considering the evidence, is only fully decided upon by c!Dream on 17 Dec when he brings c!Punz into the idea, after Exile and after the prison being commissioned.

cc!Dream and the rest are of course a different matter, but in-universe I would say that the aftermath of the execution combined with the growing hatred and growing certainty that nowhere is safe and that they'll come after him anyway (which they do) is what tips c!Dream over the edge regarding this plan.

It is unknown whether c!Dream and c!Punz knew about the corruption or its cause during this time, though they both definitely knew about the Crimson Egg (if one takes it as a symptom of corruption). Likewise, it is unknown if their "reset the server" plan was created during this time period, or whether it was created post-prison and pre-Genuine Finale. We do know that they continued experiments during that time.

And... that's it. There are areas open to interpretation, of course, there always is, but this is my personal take on the timeline of how c!Dream got from A (receiving the Revive Book) to B (being locked up in prison).

I think he's an extremely adept opportunistic tactician, and he definitely has strategic capabilities, but overall he is battling a steep uphill slope regarding his control over his self-image (and he isn't, um, great at spotting when others are crafting a narrative around him until it's too late) and this limits his social manipulation powers greatly on a wide scale. He spends a lot of his time with half a plan, mostly more of a goal he's aiming towards, and his own skills to see him through - something that drastically backfires on him during the prison.

In the aftermath of that, his desperate need for control (over himself, over his life, over the threats others pose to him, over how other people perceive him) is stark; disturbing and heart-breaking. He completely deteriorates, with even his own prison - his fortress, his would-be still-somehow-is-because-I'll-make-it-mine home - falling into disrepair around him.

#blue talks #dsmp #this is some seriously awesome detectiving work #I'll always respect someone who does timelines and goes through the vods

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