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Big Game Hunting: Trading for Kawhi

TL Summary: Wizards have golden opportunity to be front-runners for Kawhi and class of the East. They need to act now

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As it has been rumored for a long, long time, Lebron James is officially an L.A. Laker. Since James has partnered with Wade/Bosh and Kyrie/Love, he has ruled the Eastern Conference. The Celtics and 76ers are now clearly the frontrunners, with teams like the Raptors, Bucks, Pistons and Wizards hoping for everything to break right for them to get to the Eastern Conference Finals at best.

Before Lebron announced his decision to head West for the first time in his career, there were only 4 teams considering making a run at another top 5 talent in the league, Kawhi Leonard. Two of those teams - the Lakers and the 76ers, were reportedly discussing trades with the Spurs mainly to get Lebron’s attention (or keep it, as the Lakers continued pursuit does). The other two teams - the Celtics and Clippers - were big game hunting, but both were without or unwilling to include the assets the Spurs were looking for.

That’s another note that makes the Kawhi situation interesting: What do the Spurs even want? It’s been reported that they have no interest in rebuilding, but they also have asked for a plethora of draft picks in stipulated trade talks. From what I gather, they want to compete (whatever that realistically means in the West) as long as Popovich is still coaching, while simultaneously setting themselves up for the future. In most cases, if your former best players have retired or are well on their way there, and your current best player wants out, you rebuild. You look to the draft and get off all your long-term contracts, while finding young players who could turn into your next franchise gem - or clear enough money so that you can sign him instead. But they want to go the Pacers route - retool, no matter who comes and goes - as their recent Rudy Gay and Marco Belinelli signings show. I have no doubt the Spurs can make it work, considering what they were able to accomplish last year without Kawhi.

Now that Lebron is westward, the 76ers seem to have cooled on their pursuit of Kawhi - though I think they would be wise to actually heat it up - and the Celtics never seemed to have their hearts in it anyway. The Lakers and the Clippers are all that is left, mostly due to Kawhi’s expressed desire to be back in his hometown. The Clippers have less assets now that we’re in post-draft season, and the Lakers are being hard bargainers. But why isn’t there a team like the Thunder last year, who is looking to take a huge chance for a superstar who can turn your franchise around if everything goes right?

Enter the Wiza… oh, nevermind. Through the experience of knowing who Ernie Grunfeld and Ted Leonsis are, no one counts the Wizards into the Kawhi equation. Everyone knows that Kawhi isn’t coming to D.C., so all the attention was on re-signing Mike Scott and maybe Ty Lawson or whatever.

… but as free agency has been passing the Eastern conference by and rumors continue to swirl around the Kawhi Leonard very-not-fun-sweepstakes, I’m asking myself: Why not D.C.?

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The Wizards are good. I think that’s hard to remember sometimes because they’re ran like a very mediocre franchise that has no interest in being GREAT. The Summer of 2016 ruined so many possibilities, and not many moves afterwards have been able to get the fanbase out of the disbelief that this team is 2nd (or 1st) round fodder. But they are good. And young. And they likely have a longer contention window than the Raptors and Heat and higher potential than the Bucks and Pistons. They continue to be right on the cusp of contendership, if things break right and fall into place (or some other star’s leg breaks). Well, the only opportunity for things to break right seems to be right now, and the Wizards have the ultimate chance to make things fall into place. So I present:

The San Antonio Spurs trade Kawhi Leonard to the Washington Wizards for...

Scenario 1:

The Small-Fundamentals

Wizards Send: Otto Porter ($26,011,913), Tomas Satoransky ($3,129,187), Troy Brown ($2,749,080), 2019 1st Round Pick (Top 5 Protected)

Spurs Send: Kawhi Leonard ($20,099,189), Patty Mills ($11,571,429)

Reasons this works for the Spurs:

Coming off the extremely un-Spursian situation with Kawhi, the Spurs get 3 smart, low-key young players to add to their core. There’s a lot of high BBIQ in this trio, and I’m sure Pop will be excited to develop these steady, 26-and-under-still-with-upside players who can (mostly) contribute to a winning team right now. The first round pick allows them get even younger, or use it to get another asset to help the win-now mentality.

Reasons this works for the Wizards:

They get Kawhi, a top 5 player to join Wall and Beal to make an all-star trio with as much immediate upside as any in the Eastern Conference. Kawhi likes to play a lot of Iso, Wall is only really useful with the ball in his hands, and with Beal’s recent affinity for… dribbling a lot, this isn’t a perfect fit. But it’s a massively talented one, with a clear pecking order and defined strengths among the three. D.C. has a coach that depends on his stars to ISO their way to victory, and there are few players better than that then Kawhi. (See the synergy numbers posted by @colezwicker. When Kawhi is healthy, he’s fantastic at everything here). The end of game option becomes Kawhi and Kawhi only, which allows coach to continue to be uncreative with his end of game offensive sets, as he’s one to be.

Patty Mills provides shot-making, range and ball-handling in spades. Having a dude who can hit stepbacks, shoot off movement and pull up for 3s will be a very welcome sight for a team that only has one player who can create at that level - Bradley. New-comer Austin Rivers has some of that ability as well, but Mills is the much better, more efficient version of him, and might be the harder one to move in a trade due to his contract. Wizards could look to trade Rivers because of the redundancy, or keep a hyper-offensive oriented backcourt off the bench. I know it usually hurts Wizards fans to think about giving up first round picks - it’s been done too many times before with reckless abandon - but the 2019 draft class is projected to be pretty weak in comparison to the last few and the next two, so if there was ever a time to strategically use that asset, it’s now.

The Money:

The money is pretty even for next year, making it a wash for both franchises in the short-term. The Spurs get off of Mills contract, which runs through the 2020-21 season. The Wizards get a rather expensive but reliable G in Patty, that they should happily take if it comes along with The Klaw.

Scenario 2:

Star Sample

Wizards Send: Bradley Beal ($25,434,263), Kelly Oubre ($3,208,630), Jason Smith ($5,450,000)

Spurs Send: Kawhi Leonard ($20,099,189), Danny Green ($11,571,429)

Reasons this works for the Spurs:

Bradley Beal is a better player than any other being talked about in Kawhi trades. He doesn’t offer quite the tantalizing potential of Jaylen Brown, Markelle Fultz or Brandon Ingram (or the rookie scale salary, either) but that’s only because he’s already a star. Not a superstar, but he proved last season that he could do a lot to lead a team’s offense while Wall was out for half of the year. He just turned 25, made a great leap last season - showing his passing/vision and off-the-dribble skills more than ever - and was asked to do that in Scott Brook’s Iso heavy system. In the Spurs setup, with a lot less pressure on him due to being next to LaMarcus Aldridge and the other shooters the Spurs have, Beal’s life would get a lot easier in San Antonio and might allow him to reach his very highest potential.

Kelly Oubre doesn’t seem exactly like the usual Spurs cup of tea, but they’ve shown that they are able to make the most of most players, and being in a structured system like theirs might do a lot for the soon to be restricted free agent. He could backup Rudy Gay at the 3 or step in as the starter there if they want some young, athletic legs in their to run with Dejounte Murray (and Beal, of course). And throw in Jason Smith to help the Wizards Cap situation, getting them under the tax for the time being. The Spurs have a knack for making use of unathletic big men who can shoot, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they make Smith look serviceable in a way Scott Brooks never could - or wouldn’t try to.

Reasons this works for the Wizards:

Kawhi, again. And Danny Green is still a terrific defensive player that can knock down a good clip from 3 point range - 36.3% on 4.6 attempts last year. He was also one of the guys in the Spurs locker room who was defending Kawhi throughout the season no matter what story the media got their grubby hands on or made out of thin air. He definitely never escalated the situation like the Spurs old (hall of fame) timers did. Hopefully there’s goodwill and friendship there. Green can step in as the starting 2 guard, or be a great option for your first wing off the bench. This also gives the Wizards two players - Leonard and Wall - who have so much gravity that there should be no excuses for Otto not to take 8 3s a game.

Does this mean Kawhi or Otto starting at the 2? I don’t know. I think it will be fine either way - Otto has shown that he is a good guard-defender when healthy, and Kawhi can guard anyone. In the best scenarios, this would mean Otto plays more 4 in important stretches of the game. Wall-Green-Leonard-Porter Jr-NERLENS NOELDwight Howard? That is some defense.

The Money:

The Wizards save a little over $2.4 million on this one, bringing them below the luxury tax. San Antonio makes a big salary commitment to Beal, but he’s worth every cent in today’s NBA. Having him locked in through the 2020-21 season along with having matching rights to Oubre’s unrestricted free agency next year are big pluses for them. Jason Smith comes off the books after this season, as does Danny Green.

Scenario 3:

Break the Glass In Case of Emergency

Wizards Send: Bradley Beal ($25,434,263), Otto Porter ($26,011,913), 2020 2nd Round Pick

Spurs Send: Kawhi Leonard ($20,099,189), Danny Green ($11,571,429), Pau Gasol ($16,800,000)

Reasons this works for the Spurs:

All the reasons I listed above for Beal and Otto. Getting two, just turned 25, super talented wings who are locked in for 3 more seasons is a great foundation to lay. If the Spurs want to compete in Pop's last years, this is the way to do it. There's not a better win-now offer on the table than this one. And there will never be one. Not even a trade centered around Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (not happening, btw) offers this much assurances to help the Spurs win in the very near future.

Reasons this works for the Wizards:

This might seem drastic. It's the By-Any-Wings-Necessary plan - the one you offer if some other team swoops in with a drastically better offer than what's been discussed so far. If that happens, I don't think it's a bad gamble to make. John Wall's Supermax kicks in next year, and it's really untenable to have him, Beal and Otto on the roster all making upwards of $27 million, even with the increase in salary cap over the next few years. This is the last ditch effort, swing for the fences offer that doesn't leave too much of a down side

Consider the Possible Outcomes:

1 - Kawhi comes here, is healthy, balls out next to Wall, they are the 2nd or 3rd best team in the East. Even in a series against the Celtics, the Wizards have 2 out of the Top 3 players in the series (I would definitively say they have the Top 2, but I understand lots of people would take Kyrie over Wall). That's giving yourself a real shot. If he bolts for the Lakers, you tried. If he loves it here and him and Wall become best friends, you have a repeat of the OKC Thunder situation, but with more cap-room, younger star players, in an easier conference. Dreams coming true

Or,

2 - Kawhi isn't healthy or hates it here and doesn't get to his peak level. You tried, it didn't work out, Kawhi leaves and you've got lots of cap space next summer to build around Wall again (that's also why it's important to keep Troy Brown, Oubre, Sato and all first round picks in this scenario - because this could end very badly)

Pau can be helpful for a year with his passing, shooting, and leadership. Even if he isn't his contract is only partially guaranteed for next year. Him and Green (can) come off the books after this season. Go get O'Quinn, Len, Jonas Jerebko, Wayne Ellington or whoever you can fit on the books to fill out the roster. Sato, Oubre, expiring Markieff Morris are all pretty good assets to help fill the gaps as well. If the Spurs insist on putting Mills in the deal, send over Rivers expiring deal to even things out

The Money:

The Wizards save about $3 million, which is why I threw in the 2nd round pick to sweeten the deal fo SA. It gives the Wizards a ton of flexibility moving forward, and the chance to Max Leonard. Spurs get the stability they want, with both Beal and Otto's contract running out around the same time Aldridge's does. _______

Why not the Wizards? While the Spurs are out here getting low-balled by the 6ers and Lakers, the Wizards have a chance to swoop in and take this - and themselves - seriously. The Celtics look monstrous but they are still young and have two stars with major health concerns. The 76ers are even younger and have less shooting than they did last year. These two teams are only going to get better, so the Wizards time is now. A big market team needs to let their fans big-market dream, and stealing the most undervalued generational player from their rivals (and Lebron) would restore so much of the faith they have lost.

In the Summer of 2016, The Wizard's front office showed they could think big with their pursuit of Kevin Durant and Al Horford. Now they have the opportunity to do a lot more than just think, or even dream it. It's time to come alive. The ball is in Ernie's court.

(All salaries from the terrific EarlyBirdRights.com)