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Climate Change Challenges Facing the United States

The United States has joined many nations worldwide in pledging to make systemic changes in the face of the threat posed by global climate change. The US has taken part in several international initiatives and pledges designed to expedite the global transition from fossil fuels to clean energy, including the Paris Agreement.

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding framework for preventing average global temperatures from increasing by two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. Many scientists believe nearly three-quarters of the planet’s coastlines will experience sea-level rises of at least eight inches. If accurate, the rise could lead to widespread coastal flooding, followed by beach erosion and the salinization of water supplies. Beyond rising sea levels, unchecked climate change can lead to more frequent and severe weather events, droughts, and heatwaves.

According to The Paris Agreement, it has set 1.5 degrees Celsius change as an upper limit but has promoted the idea of maintaining even safer climate levels. However, the 1.5-degree mark establishes a difficult hurdle. Supporters of the Paris Agreement believe global greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 to achieve the benchmark, yet 2023 marked a new emission high.

Similarly, reliance on fossil fuels must diminish at an accelerated rate. In addition to peaking before 2025, emissions must fall by nearly 50 percent by 2030. It poses additional challenges for nations like the US, where clean, renewable energy accounts for just 39 percent of electricity generation. Natural gas leads the way, generating 40 percent of the nation’s electricity while emitting harmful carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide gasses.

Energy production is only one piece of the puzzle if America aims to meet Paris Agreement deadlines. In 2021, electricity was responsible for 25 percent of greenhouse gas emissions in the US. While it was the second leading cause of greenhouse emissions, several additional problem areas exist. The transportation industry was responsible for nearly 30 percent of emissions in 2021, while the industry contributed 23 percent of greenhouse gasses. Industry makes up 30 percent of America’s greenhouse emissions when factoring electricity usage into other industrial operations.

The data suggests that America must make significant changes and improvements to some of the nation’s most complex and frequently used systems. Individual citizens must also embrace these changes, with commercial and residential properties accounting for 13 percent of emissions. The agricultural industry stands alone and is the cause of 10 percent of emissions.

For additional context, greenhouse gas emissions in America have only decreased by two percent, dating back to 1990. While external factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic can influence year-to-year changes, reliance on fossil fuels does not appear to be changing. Coal usage has gradually decreased but jumped 15 percent between 2020 and 2021. Fossil fuel emissions rose by seven percent during the same period. Natural gas increases occurred across virtually all sectors.

Nonetheless, the US has committed to several aggressive projects and initiatives, many of which fall under President Biden’s Executive Order 14008: Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad. It has created countless partnerships between the Interior Department and other federal agencies working to expand renewable energy production. Goals for the order include 30 gigawatts of offshore wind energy production by 2030.

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Continuing Long-Term Financial Sanctions against Iran

When Joe Biden, then a presidential candidate, outlined his foreign policy objectives to Foreign Affairs in 2020, he asserted, “it is past time to end the forever wars.” This referred to the prolonged and costly engagements the United States experienced in Afghanistan and Iraq. At the same time, Biden spoke of diminishing the importance of the Middle East in American military strategy and reducing boots on the ground across the region.

However, the Biden Administration largely stayed the course in its approach to countering and containing Iran while supporting nascent democratic movements in the country. In November 2021, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III delivered a major policy speech in Bahrain that emphasized a US commitment to preventing Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapon, by diplomatic channels if possible, and with a look at “all options on the table” should that fail to keep America secure.

One longstanding plank in this strategy has involved freezing Iranian assets. In November 1979, President Jimmy Carter signed an executive order under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) in response to the Iranian Revolution and overthrow of the US-backed Shah. This order froze all interests and property of the Iranian government under US jurisdiction or in control or possession of US persons. While billions of dollars were subsequently released in 1981 as part of the Algiers Accords, which enabled the release of US Embassy workers in Tehran, various sanctions have been in place.

From 2009 to 2017, the Obama Administration employed the National Emergencies Act and IEEPA-authorized sanctions as a pressure point in forcing Iran to scale back its nuclear program and negotiate. Foreign institutions and companies that delivered material support to Iran’s financial system, even though processing Iran-tied transactions, were at risk of being excluded from the US financial system, which drives much of global commerce.

In response, foreign banks holding Iranian foreign exchange reserves froze Iran’s access. Subsequent requests by Iran for payments or transfers were denied (even in cases where transactions would be technically allowed under humanitarian trade exemptions. The effect weakened Iran’s currency and the rial and exposed the country to balance payment risks. This made it challenging for Iranian companies to conduct business abroad and for parties to make foreign direct investments.

There have been some reprieves to this scenario over the past decade. In 2014, an interim nuclear accord with Germany, Britain, Russia, China, France, and the United States enabled the repatriation of $4.2 billion in Iranian oil revenues held in foreign accounts.

The following year, the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) enabled Iran access to $100 billion in international assets in return for significant reductions in its nuclear program. However, in 2018, incoming president Donald Trump reimposed the majority of these US sanctions while engineering a withdrawal from JCPOA, citing a lack of cooperation on nuclear curtailment.

By the end of 2020, Iran’s foreign exchange reserves totaled $115.4 billion, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimating that only $12.2 billion of that amount was readily accessible. Japan and South Korea, which have traditionally purchased much of their oil from Iran, hold such reserves in significant quantities. They are also held by Iraq, which depends on its neighbor for electricity, and by countries such as the UAE, Turkey, Germany, India, and China.

The current sanctions seem to be in place for the long haul. In September 2023, Iranian oil revenue valued at $6 billion was set to be freed up for humanitarian uses as part of a prisoner swap deal set to release five American hostages. Unfortunately, the following month, the terrorist group Hamas launched attacks on Israel, and the deal was suspended. While the Biden administration did not accuse Iran of having been directly involved in the attacks, the White House emphasized that Iran’s decades-long policy of funding and training Hamas operatives makes it complicit in the attacks.

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The History and Mandate of CAFE Standards for US Vehicle Fuel Economy

A federal agency, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has a primary aim of ensuring transportation safety across the United States. Acting in response to the embargo of international oil exports by OPEC members in 1973, the NHTSA set up Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards in the mid 1970s.

Introduced as part of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975, CAFE Standards define the average new vehicle fuel economy (weighted by sales) that each car maker’s fleet must attain. They went into effect for new passenger vehicles beginning with model year (MY) 1978, with an intended objective of doubling average fuel economy among new cars to 27.5 miles per gallon (mpg).

MY 1978 objectives spanned light trucks such as minivans, pickups, and SUVs, and ultimately resulted in a 22.2 mpg objective for MY 2007. These new rules did not, however, address the rapid increase in sales of low efficiency SUVs in the early 2000s. In response, the Obama administration coordinated with the auto industry in creating a two-phase NHTSA- and EPA-governed national program. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 mandated a 10 mpg increase increase in cars, SUVs, and light trucks’ fuel economy standards to 35 mpg or more by 2020. In addition, the act required that, through 2030, standards must attain maximum feasible levels.

In 2007, the Supreme Court additionally made a historic decision in Massachusetts v. EPA that folded pollution standards within the Clean Air Act and provided impetus for California to enact stringent vehicle global warming pollution standards. Such standards were subsequently adopted by 13 additional states and the District of Columbia. This delivered a mechanism by which auto manufacturers could create a single national fleet of vehicles in compliance with both CAFE program and EPA Clean Air Act standards and, by extension, state and federal regulations.

This progress in emissions standards was partially undone by the Trump administration, which introduced Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE 1) standards. These increased fuel economy standards at a more graduated rate than before, with the annual fuel efficiency increase scaled back from 5 percent to 1.5 percent through 2026.

Upon taking office, the Biden administration worked to repeal SAFE 1, on grounds that the new standards overstepped the legal authority of the governing agencies. In their place, NHTSA implemented CAFE standards for the 2024-2026 model years in 2022. These mandate that all light-duty vehicles achieve 49 mpg by 2026, with 8 percent annual efficiency increases in 2024 and 2025, and a 10 percent annual increase in 2026.

In July 2023, NHTSA additionally proposed CAFE standards covering light trucks and passenger cars for MY 2027 to 2032. Should this proposal be approved, the industry fleet-wide average for all vehicles will reach 58 miles per gallon by 2032. This would require 2 percent annual fuel economy increases for passenger cars, four percent increases for light trucks, and 10 percent increases for heavy-duty vans and pickup trucks. The process involves creation of a draft environmental impact statement (Draft EIS) that must garner public input before being submitted to Congress for approval. The new rules aim to utilize proven and available fuel-saving technologies in meeting energy conservation goals, while providing the industry with a certain amount of flexibility.