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covid19updater · 4 years ago

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COVID19 Updates: 10/01/2020

Israel: Police give 3,482 tickets for corona lockdown violations in 24 hours LINK

US: Up to 46 million jobs at risk due to Covid-19 aviation downturn LINK

Israel: Netanyahu says full lifting of lockdown may take up to a year LINK

US: CDC slowing pace on releasing new coronavirus health guidance LINK

World: Study finds 100% death rate in COVID-19 patients after CPR LINK

Sweden: Sweden reports 752 new coronavirus cases, biggest one-day increase since June

World: Coronavirus May Increase Premature Births, Studies Suggest LINK

OP/ED Piece from Web: We are officially in October. The winter is coming, and jokes aside..."The winter is coming". The developments in the last 10-12 days are not exactly what my model predicted, but are damn close. Like 90% fitting what my model is predicting. The discrepancy might simply be because my model is actually built on a 10% error, and I hope it is so, because the other explanation is much worse. I was expecting that the authorities would do everything in their power to hide the reality until the reality cannot be hidden anymore. But I did not expected them to ban information regarding cases in schools, or ban professionals in the education and medical system to divulge what should be public information : school clusters, hospitalization data, ICU being filled, overworking of medical stuff. Most people and most politicians are simply unable to project bad scenarios, simply because they don't want to believe that bad things can happen. Until the bad things happen, and their reactions are anything but constructive. From the start of this pandemic, people who could see what will happen, also realized that sacrifices would have to be made in order to diminish, or at least stagger the impact of this pandemic. Personally, I hate talking about the past, because the past cannot be changed. But in this instance, to understand what will happen in the future, we have to look in the past. I argued in favor of a full stop of all international and national travel, by February 5-6th. Planes, trains, buses, ships, everything should have been parked in early February. The tourism industry would have been hit hard, as well as travel industry. But this should have been done, not because it would have avoided the losses of the total lock-downs in March-May, but mainly to postpone the moment when the virus will be endemic. We haven't done that, because the economic impact would have been huge. Due to this "bad things can't happen to us", when the virus hit us in March, we got scared (and for good reason) and locked-down everything. The economic losses were 10 times greater. When the lock-downs started, I argued that they should stay for 3 months. Well, we didn't, and the lock-downs were lifted after 2 months. Where I am going with this, and what is the relevance for the future? Well, the answer is simple : the world economy cannot be shut-down for more then 2 months, or we're fucked. And this is what we have to take into consideration for the next 4-6 months, the months where the sun doesn't shine as much, the temperature is low and seasonal flu is up. Among these next months, there is the month of December, a critical month regarding the economy. The economic boost of December cannot be disregarded. Now, since we cannot shut-down for more then 2 months, and since December is NEEDED for the economy, we can understand why total lock-downs are avoided like hell. Any nation-wide lock-down must consider December. Sadly, December is bang on the middle of the next 4-6 months, where things will get really hairy. When we consider all this, what are the options, if second round of nation-wide lock-downs is coming? If the second round of lock-downs is coming, and December has to be lock-down "free", the second round of lock-downs should have started already. Since it didn't, it can only start in January. Now, this is the biggest problem we are facing : if a second round of lock-downs is needed...the governments will either lock-down after December or lock-down before December, but INCLUDING December. As always, I hope the worst case scenario won't happen, but damn, it seems that the governments are hell bent on making it happen. Before I get into what I expect to happen in the next weeks and months, I have to say that I was wrong in some of my assumptions, and not because I misinterpreted the data, but because of lack of data. First, is reactivation/reinfection. When first cases of reactivation/reinfection happened, they were recorded in South Korea, early in the pandemic. At that point, South Korea had very few Covid-19 cases, in the thousands (officially) or tens of thousands (in reality). Looking at the numbers (tens of thousands of cases in a country of 50+ million) and 2 cases of reinfection/reactivation, mathematical probability show that it was highly improbable to have reinfections (early in the pandemic, very few cases in a big country), but highly probable to be reactivation. Since then, my personal belief was that it is reactivation, but I didn't knew how and when it will happen, and how spread it is going to be. So, I decided to dismiss reactivation as a potential quantity that would have required model adjustments. You all know that I said that the Spring epicenters won't be epicenters in the Winter. My belief was that even if the life of antibodies is short (3-4 months), the former infected people would at least have an immune response when facing a second reinfection. Cities like Madrid, where I believe to have reached 20% infection rate in May, should at least be partially protected for the second wave, and while still being hit by the second wave, would not be epicenters again. In the last 10-12 days, the number of so called reinfections has simply skyrocketed (compared to earlier figures), and this is because those are not reinfections, they are reactivation of the virus. I wish I would be right, and reactivation is a minuscule part of this pandemic, but what is happening in Madrid shows that reactivation is pretty damn important. The hard part is quantifying the reactivation in modeling what is going to happen in the next weeks and months. I can't put a hard number on it, but I can add it, in certain figures, to scenarios. Another possible failure on my part, and I say possible because the official numbers cannot be fully trusted, is measuring the impact of the second wave. My model showed that the second wave would be 3 times bigger then first one, and in order to be so, we should have seen sustained official cases in France in the range of 12-13k cases / day for the last 2 weeks, and in Spain, 13-15k cases / day in the last 2 weeks. We are below these numbers in Spain by about 20%, and in France we are just under 5%. It is a big difference, but not unexpected. Spain was hit harder then France, so they should have a higher proportion of the population with some resistance to the virus. Spain also started local lock-downs earlier then France, this time. However, I expect Spain's numbers to be "corrected" in the next days, to closer match my model, and I expect this to happen because reactivation is no longer a small variable, but a big one. Big enough to push Spain’s official numbers in the next days, to sustained levels of 13-15k cases. If this will happen, if Spain will either commit to a full lock-down in the next 2 weeks (because they know that reactivation is going to count), or their daily cases are in the range of 13k-15k, I am afraid we are facing a very grim, and possibly, the worst case scenario. Why I am talking about sustained daily cases, instead rising in cases? A pandemic is not growing and growing and growing, until it burns out. Masks, restrictions of gatherings, travel limitations, etc. all contribute to a plateau of infections. Once we reach a plateau, due to measures in place, we can expect either a decrease , either a plateauing in cases. There is a chance to see a rise in cases, and I will address it later, but if we see a plateau of high numbers in the next 2 weeks, in countries like France and Spain, paired with sustained increases in other countries in Europe, the U.S., Russia and Canada, we are in big trouble. If the above will happen, and we don't see a significant decrease in France and Spain (they are the first countries to explode in cases in this second wave), while witnessing increases in other Northern hemisphere countries, middle of October is going to be our "make or break" moment, as my model is predicting to be. When we look at virus reactivation, lesser and lesser strength of the immune system in the next months, governments decision to keep the schools and universities open and the devastating impact of a longer then 2 months lock-down, I am afraid that we will witness what a pandemic REALLY looks like. They will avoid locking-down until there is no other option left. And I believe that if the lock-down comes after October, we will face a massive economic loss (much bigger then Great Depression), that will affect us for many, many years. If the lock-downs won't be in place by January, but after, to save the economy and December revenues, my model shows very, very scary numbers. Without breaking down the numbers, and considering schools will remain open through October, and disregarding reactivation and a possible mutation of the virus on the younger hosts (due to schools), we can expect up to 7% of the population in Europe, U.S., Canada, Russia and other countries on or above 40 latitude, to be hospitalized in the next 3 months : October, November and December. To put this into perspective, this means up to 23 million hospitalized in the U.S. in the next 3 months, or twice that number for Europe (the continent, not the Union). And these hospitalized will be on top of the normal hospitalizations. Let's just hope this this won't happen, because this pandemic will easily surpass Spanish flu. We can potentially see 1-2% of the population of the countries in the Northern Hemisphere dead in the next 3 months, just from Covid-19...and there is still January, February and March left, to add another 1-2%. I know this sounds really extreme, and it most likely won't happen, because we will 100% lock-down before this happen. The economic losses from a 4 month lock-down will be much smaller then the economic losses of close to 100 million hospitalized and 10 to 20 million dead people in Europe, U.S., Canada and Russia, not even counting for the massive disruptions that will come in such scenario. And that is not counting for a potential more contagious mutation or for a bigger rate of reactivation. The good part is that we won't have to wait too long to see if such scenario is on the cards. Just another 2 to 3 weeks. France and Spain will show us (by locking-down or seeing sustained daily cases in the range of 12-13k for the next weeks, with no significant drops) if we are facing a second Spanish Flu-like (or worse) pandemic.

Canada: Quebec unveils how partial lockdown rules will be enforced in COVID-19 red zones LINK

UK: Covid-19 outbreak at Sunderland car parts plant - with 14 confirmed cases. LINK

France: #BREAKING French health minister warns Paris may go on maximum virus alert from Monday

UK: Text of apology from MP Margaret Ferrier after knowingly traveling by train after positive COVID results. LINK

Italy: Italy's Daily COVID-19 Tally Tops 2,500 For First Time Since Apri

UK: UK: 6,916 new cases. 4% increase in new cases on last Thursday (6,634) 2,276 currently hospitalized. 45% increase since last Thursday (1,562)

Sweden: SWEDEN UPDATE—Sweden registered 752 new #COVID19 cases on Thursday, highest daily rise since June, the latest in a steady rise in infections in recent weeks.

Spain: Spain: 9,416 new cases12% fewer cases than last Thursday (10,653) 10,559 currently hospitalized 4% fewer than last Thursday (11,041)

France: 13,970 new cases. 15% fewer cases than last Thursday (16,496). Those who are currently hospitalized: 6,634. 10% increase since last Thursday (6,031) . 35% of intensive care beds are occupied in Paris. #COVID19

UK: Covid cases doubled under most local lockdowns in EnglandExclusive: Confusing rules blamed for rise in infections in 11 of 16 towns and cities under long-term restrictions LINK

West Virginia: Gov. Justice addresses lawsuits over map, decries politics and defends changes as necessary. LINK

Spain: Madrid will observe central government’s new coronavirus restrictions, but plans to challenge them in the courts LINK

World: Researchers call for loss of smell to be recognized globally as a symptom of COVID-19 LINK

World: Pfizer CEO told employees that vaccine development is moving “at the speed of science” and that the company would not succumb to political pressure. LINK

China: Beijing's streets during and after Covid lockdown – in pictures. LINK (Having been there, I can say that the “after” pics are nowhere close to “normal” levels)

World: COVID-19 antibodies in blood plasma donations appear to drop within just months of symptoms emerging, warns study LINK

China: China holiday: Millions on the move for Golden Week LINK

Georgia: Atlanta Falcons to use drones to clean stadium after games LINK

World: Amazon says more than 19,000 workers got Covid-19 LINK

Massachusetts: 708 confirmed Covid19 cases in Massachusetts today. The state is heading in wrong direction with 36% increase in positive tests over 7 days and 6 hospitals near surge capacity.

Israel: Netanyahu: If coronavirus lockdown doesn't work, we'll make it stricter LINK

Greece: 411 more coronavirus cases; two new deaths

California: San Diego City Employees, Elected Officials in Quarantine Following COVID-19 Exposure LINK

World: Tracking Economic Relief Plans Around the World during the Coronavirus Outbreak LINK

US: N.Y., N.J. Unveil New ‘COVID Alert’ Apps That Notify Users If They’re Within 6 Feet Of Someone Who Has Tested Positive LINK

US: House approves $2.2 trillion stimulus plan, but bipartisan deal unlikely LINK

District of Columbia: Smithsonian lays off 237 as COVID-19 continues to limit operations LINK

New York: NYS Comptroller Audit: Up To 50% Of NYC Bars And Restaurants Could Close Permanently In Next 6 Months LINK

Macau: Macau Sees Little Sign of Recovery as Gaming Revenue Falls 90% LINK

World: Expert looks at how COVID-19 problems can turn into lifelong chronic diseases LINK

North Carolina: Frustrated Wake County parents hold reopen rally outside school district headquarters LINK

Argentina: Argentina | 14,001 new cases and 3,352 deaths were reported in 24 hours LINK

US: Jacobs reports White House aide Hope Hicks is experiencing symptoms of the disease and was in close proximity to the President and mask-less this week. No comment yet from the WH on the exposure risk to POTUS.

Honduras: New Migrant Caravan From Honduras Heads Toward U.S. Border LINK

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preciousmetals0 · 5 years ago

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Retail Weeps, China Creeps, Bankers Beat and Testing Sleeps

Retail Weeps, China Creeps, Bankers Beat and Testing Sleeps:

Friday Four Play: You Down With PPT?

Holy cats! It was one busy Friday.

I mean, we had a literal smorgasbord of market-moving data … all in one day:

Consumer spending set another record in April, plunging 16.4%.

President Trump blocked semiconductor shipments to Huawei.

China threatened to activate its “unreliable entity list.”

Trump questioned virus testing.

Banking stocks ran out of steam.

We’ll get to all that in a minute…

First, I want to highlight something I haven’t seen mentioned in years: the Plunge Protection Team (PPT).

You down with PPT? Yeah, you know me.

After yesterday’s massive midday comeback rally — the Dow swung some 600 points from its lows to finish higher — how can we not discuss the PPT?

Yes, dear reader, the PPT actually exists. Officially called the Working Group on Financial Markets, the PPT was founded in 1988 to provide U.S. presidents with economic data during times of market turmoil.

Since then, conspiracy theories have built the PPT into some mythical organization that goes on massive buying sprees to support the market — much like yesterday’s surprise reversal.

Now, I’m not saying the PPT actively supports the market like an invisible hand behind the scenes. But when I see unreasonable market rallies like we saw yesterday, I can’t completely dismiss the idea either.

This is all tongue-in-cheek speculation, of course. (Or is it?)

The most likely reason for yesterday’s massive surge was automated buy programs set to trip once the Dow hit its 50-day moving average. Yesterday, I said this was a crucial pivot point for the Dow. It seems that many investors (automated or not) agreed and used it as a buy trigger.

The thing you need to remember most, however, is that volatility remains a considerable player in this market. PPT or not, you need to prepare for massive market moves (both up and down).

Click here to find out how to do just that.

And now for something completely different … here’s your Friday Four Play:

No. 1: Retail Regression

Where would you like to begin today? The bad news or the … well, how about we start the retail roundup.

So, sales across the retail board fell apart like a deflated soufflé. A bread loaf unrisen. A cake with a soggy bottom. OK, I confess: We’ve resorted to binging baking shows by this point of quarantine … but these retail figures were far from baked into Wall Street’s expectations.

Consumer spending saw a 16.4% decline in April — worse than the 12.3% predicted. The worst of it fell on clothing stores, which saw a devastating 78.8% decrease in sales!

We don’t have to obsess over grim numbers on this fine Friday afternoon. Besides, there are still million-dollar bonuses to fantasize about — at least if you’re an exec at JC Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP) and can hang on until next January. (Furloughs, store closures, bankruptcy? Pay no mind…)

Meanwhile, Lululemon Athletica Inc. (Nasdaq: LULU) received a hefty price target raise ($235 to $280) from Cowen, on top of its current outperform rating. So pish-posh about those clothing retail sales — nothing to see there.

Does Great Stuff agree with Cowen that Lululemon could be the next Nike? Perhaps … I mean, the company taps into a market not many others confidently cover: women’s athletic wear that isn’t garbage-tier quality.

No. 2: The Technology Two-Step

The stay-at-home market was doing well for the technology sector. Mobile devices saw upticks, laptops and PCs gained popularity among the work-at-home crowd. And then this happens…

The Trump administration announced today that it will block semiconductor shipments to Chinese tech company Huawei. The Commerce Department will “strategically target Huawei’s acquisition of semiconductors that are the direct product of certain U.S. software and technology.”

That’s bad for U.S. chipmakers, such as Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (Nasdaq: AMD), Qualcomm Inc. (Nasdaq: QCOM) and many others. However, the worst fallout could come from China’s response, namely its “unreliable entity list.”

That means that China is getting ready to investigate and restrict sales from companies such as Qualcomm, Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO) and Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) — all three were targets in a tweet from Hu Xijin, editor in chief of Chinese state-run publication Global Times.

In short, if you’re invested in any of these tech companies (especially semiconductors), you might consider taking profits now. This situation will get ugly if it escalates any further.

Editor’s Note: Want a true American tech trend with staying power — regardless of the price of chips in China? Click here!

No. 3: Testing Is “Overrated”

The race for a COVID-19 vaccine is heating up, with Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: INO) and Moderna Inc. (Nasdaq: MRNA) currently leading the pack. Both are currently moving into phase 2 testing, putting them on course for a public vaccine release later this year — if all goes well.

Putting the fate of humanity aside for a moment, both stocks have made investors a considerable amount of money this year. INO is up more than 350% in 2020, while MRNA has jumped 240%.

Due to its unique process of using Big Data to engineer a vaccine, Inovio is a favorite here at Great Stuff. We even banked a triple-digit winner with INO back in early March.

Neither company is an official Great Stuff recommendation right now due to all the hype in the vaccine market. However, keep your eyes on both companies. Buying dips in INO and MRNA might be a good way to take advantage of market volatility.

Getting back to the fate of humanity, President Trump had this to say about the pandemic in the U.S.: “When you test, you have a case. When you test you find something is wrong with people. If we didn’t do any testing, we would have very few cases.”

Hear that, Inovio and Moderna? You don’t need to work so hard on a vaccine — we just need to test less.

On that note … remember, kids: If you never have a pregnancy test, you can’t get pregnant.

No. 4: Follow the Bouncing Banks

We joked around about the PPT up above, but if you are a true conspiracy realist on the topic, I’ve got some juicy speculation for you.

Yesterday’s midday market rebound was led by the “dead parrot” banking sector. Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) … all the big banks topped the market.

There was no special news. No major developments. Just a banking sector rally that provided a bump right when the market needed it the most. Interesting…

(What? You say there were hints that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) is looking for a merger? Pshaw … we can’t let rumors get in the way of good PPT speculation!)

We all know that the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve are dumping all kinds of money into the economy. You can almost hear the brrrrrrr sound of the Fed’s money printing press.

And whom, do you think, is the biggest beneficiary of all that money? How do the Fed and the Treasury get that money into the system? The banking sector.

So, here’s the conspiracy theory: The two biggest PPT players are printing massive amounts of cash and dumping it into the banking sector, which just happened to lead yesterday’s massive market rebound.

Coincidence? Yes, more than likely. But what fun would that be?

Great Stuff: Big Banks, No Ones

Big banks, retail collapse, distrust in the Fed, everyone looking bored and unamused with reality — you could almost convince me it’s 2008 again!

Now, I know that it’s easy to let the bad news sink on your mindset like a black hole sucking out the universe’s positivity. But stick with Great Stuff, and we’ll stick by you through whatever comes our way.

We here hope you have a great weekend! And if you get antsy around the house, why not drop us a line? Send a message to [email protected]. We’re always glad to hear from you.

You can always hear more from us on Facebook and Twitter too.

Until next time, be Great!

Joseph Hargett

Editor, Great Stuff

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goldira01 · 5 years ago

Link

Friday Four Play: You Down With PPT?

Holy cats! It was one busy Friday.

I mean, we had a literal smorgasbord of market-moving data … all in one day:

Consumer spending set another record in April, plunging 16.4%.

President Trump blocked semiconductor shipments to Huawei.

China threatened to activate its “unreliable entity list.”

Trump questioned virus testing.

Banking stocks ran out of steam.

We’ll get to all that in a minute…

First, I want to highlight something I haven’t seen mentioned in years: the Plunge Protection Team (PPT).

You down with PPT? Yeah, you know me.

After yesterday’s massive midday comeback rally — the Dow swung some 600 points from its lows to finish higher — how can we not discuss the PPT?

Since then, conspiracy theories have built the PPT into some mythical organization that goes on massive buying sprees to support the market — much like yesterday’s surprise reversal.

This is all tongue-in-cheek speculation, of course. (Or is it?)

The thing you need to remember most, however, is that volatility remains a considerable player in this market. PPT or not, you need to prepare for massive market moves (both up and down).

Click here to find out how to do just that.

And now for something completely different … here’s your Friday Four Play:

No. 1: Retail Regression

Where would you like to begin today? The bad news or the … well, how about we start the retail roundup.

Consumer spending saw a 16.4% decline in April — worse than the 12.3% predicted. The worst of it fell on clothing stores, which saw a devastating 78.8% decrease in sales!

No. 2: The Technology Two-Step

The stay-at-home market was doing well for the technology sector. Mobile devices saw upticks, laptops and PCs gained popularity among the work-at-home crowd. And then this happens…

In short, if you’re invested in any of these tech companies (especially semiconductors), you might consider taking profits now. This situation will get ugly if it escalates any further.

Editor’s Note: Want a true American tech trend with staying power — regardless of the price of chips in China? Click here!

No. 3: Testing Is “Overrated”

Putting the fate of humanity aside for a moment, both stocks have made investors a considerable amount of money this year. INO is up more than 350% in 2020, while MRNA has jumped 240%.

Due to its unique process of using Big Data to engineer a vaccine, Inovio is a favorite here at Great Stuff. We even banked a triple-digit winner with INO back in early March.

Hear that, Inovio and Moderna? You don’t need to work so hard on a vaccine — we just need to test less.

On that note … remember, kids: If you never have a pregnancy test, you can’t get pregnant.

No. 4: Follow the Bouncing Banks

We joked around about the PPT up above, but if you are a true conspiracy realist on the topic, I’ve got some juicy speculation for you.

There was no special news. No major developments. Just a banking sector rally that provided a bump right when the market needed it the most. Interesting…

(What? You say there were hints that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) is looking for a merger? Pshaw … we can’t let rumors get in the way of good PPT speculation!)

We all know that the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve are dumping all kinds of money into the economy. You can almost hear the brrrrrrr sound of the Fed’s money printing press.

And whom, do you think, is the biggest beneficiary of all that money? How do the Fed and the Treasury get that money into the system? The banking sector.

Coincidence? Yes, more than likely. But what fun would that be?

Great Stuff: Big Banks, No Ones

Big banks, retail collapse, distrust in the Fed, everyone looking bored and unamused with reality — you could almost convince me it’s 2008 again!

We here hope you have a great weekend! And if you get antsy around the house, why not drop us a line? Send a message to [email protected]. We’re always glad to hear from you.

You can always hear more from us on Facebook and Twitter too.

Until next time, be Great!

Joseph Hargett

Editor, Great Stuff

#Timor Invest

0 notes

goldira01 · 5 years ago

Link

How Do You Spell Relief?

And they’re off!

The first (annual?) U.S. quarantined corporate earnings season kicked off this morning, and investors loved the red-hot rally action.

It was 2% to 3% gains across the board as the market opened. Wall Street finally has concrete data on how the pandemic has affected American businesses.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), Fastenal Co. (Nasdaq: FAST) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) all beat analysts’ quarterly projections … as if to say: “See? Things aren’t as bad as they seem!”

I mean, why should you worry? The market just logged its biggest weekly rally in four decades!

President Trump is pulling together a pandemic council to speed up reopening the U.S. economy. States are banding together to work on their own economic reopening plans. COVID-19 cases have stabilized and should soon start to decline.

If market activity is anything to go by (and the market is never wrong, right?), we’re all worried about nothing.

The Takeaway:

Wait … hold up. Nothing to worry about? Who is this, and what have you done with Mr. Great Stuff?

Sorry, dear readers. The bourbon is running low, the coffee is gone and we’re almost out of milk. I know I should drink water, but we’re out of Bud Light and White Claw, too. All I had left was Kool-Aid.

It won’t happen again.

Promise.

All right, where to begin?

How about last week’s relief rally? The rally that every “market bull worth his salt” is crowing about right now.

There’s a funny thing about that rally. It was indeed a relief rally … but not the kind you might think of.

The only investors relieved were short sellers. It was what market technicians call a “short squeeze in negative momentum.”

Now, what that means is that short sellers saw a massive profit opportunity — i.e., repurchasing their short positions at low, low prices and banking the returns. That rally fuel has now dried up, according to Rebecca Cheong, UBS Securities’ head of Americas equity derivatives strategy.

“Recent factor moves are more in-line with past fake rallies than final recovery,” Cheong wrote. “We expect short-covering is likely over … Positioning risk is now more vulnerable to long reduction.”

OK, so we have a plausible reason for last week’s massive rally. The question is … why last week?

The short answer: corporate earnings.

Earnings season brings volatility and unknown outcomes. If you read through today’s quarterly reports from JPMorgan, Fastenal and the like, you’ll notice that the overall top-line figures were better than expected. Hence, today’s rally.

But while these headline figures promote a feeling that everything’s OK, there are much more concerning issues lying just beneath the surface. (We’ll get to those in a minute.)

Suffice it to say that short sellers wanted nothing to do with this earnings-induced volatility and banked profits early, leading to last week’s mother-of-all short squeezes.

As earnings season lumbers on, many of these shorts may wish they had held their positions a little while longer. After all, you get cherry-picked earnings info in headlines from the major financial publications. (Did you see Conn’s Inc.’s (Nasdaq: CONN) earnings report mentioned anywhere? I didn’t think so.)

So, what’s a non-Kool-Aid drinker to do at a time like this?

Well … there’s a better way to play earnings season — no matter what ungodly results come from the earnings confessional — and one earnings strategy blows me away every time.

Earlier this year, one of Banyan Hill’s teams closed out a four-day gain in Tesla Inc. (Nasdaq: TSLA) for 438%. And in 2018, its strategy was responsible for the biggest individual trade at our company in the last five years — a 526% gain on Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) in three months!

Let’s be honest, the markets are rough right now for all of us…

We’re set for a catastrophic earnings season — the grandpappy of corporate earnings calamities, if you will. Instead of running for the hills, this trading research team is eyeing new “Quick Hit” trades as we speak — err, type?

Click here to hear about a better way to play earnings season.

Good: Chasing Profits

The major earnings headline today was from JPMorgan Chase, and it comes with a few provisos … a couple of quid pro quos…

The banking behemoth reported earnings of $0.78 per share, whiffing the consensus estimate for $1.84 per share. Revenue held up, however, arriving at $29.07 billion and beating expectations.

There are two key points to note here. First, JPMorgan’s earnings missed because the company set aside $6.8 billion in credit reserves. In short, the bank expects an influx of credit defaults across its lending businesses.

And there will be more default prep to come, according to Chief Financial Officer Jennifer Piepszak. In a conference call with investors, Piepszak said that JPMorgan could be forced to add billions more to its credit reserves to stave off defaults. This is a smart move by JPMorgan, but it’s a very negative sign for the U.S. economy.

Second, revenue remained strong because of a record 32% jump in trading revenue. JPMorgan clearly has the right outlook on the market and trades. What is that market outlook? A “bad recession” and financial crisis like 2008.

Today, JPM stock was pounded because the company told the truth. I like the company’s honesty and its trading performance, but exposure to rising credit defaults will keep JPM shares on the back burner for now.

Better: Fastenal Your Seatbelts

If the case for a bull market rebound has a poster boy today, it’s Fastenal.

Fastenal makes industrial and construction fasteners, and industrials have supposedly been hit hard during the economic shutdown. However, the company beat Wall Street’s first-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, leading many to speculate that the pandemic’s impact on businesses has been exaggerated.

FAST shares rallied more than 6% on the news.

However, if you read past the headline figures, you find interesting data. Specifically, Fastenal’s earnings release noted: “The second half of March saw activity levels weaken significantly in response to societal actions meant to address the coronavirus pandemic.”

Digging deeper reveals that gross margins dipped, and sales growth slowed significantly. The biggest red flag in my book, however, is the fact that Fastenal didn’t provide guidance for the rest of the year.

Conveniently, Fastenal doesn’t typically provide guidance. So, I can’t really complain too much here about the company’s lack of transparency. But, I think you can see, Fastenal isn’t the herald of market bullishness that today’s market headlines make it out to be.

Best: Island in the Stream…

…that’s what Roku Inc. (Nasdaq: ROKU) is.

There’s no one in between you and your streaming content with Roku, since the company’s platform is content agnostic. And after the company lifted its first-quarter guidance this morning, how can we be wrong … to … um … recommend the shares? (Weakest lyrical reference ever. Sorry, Dolly.)

Here’s the deal: Roku lifted revenue guidance and projected a 3-million-account net increase for the first quarter — bringing the company to 39.8 million active users. Furthermore, Roku said it anticipates streaming hours to increase by 49% year over year for the period.

With everyone stuck at home these days, Roku is really starting to shine. Now, the company did withdraw its full-year outlook due to the pandemic, but I believe it’s being conservative.

After all, Roku has the leading home-streaming hardware platform on the market. It’s the reason why Great Stuff has recommended buying ROKU shares since May 2019.

It doesn’t matter which streaming service you use — it all works on Roku. Plus, Roku’s streaming devices are among the most affordable on the market, meaning it will remain a leader even throughout an economic downturn — especially when cord cutting picks up as consumers look to cut costs.

I tell you, the past few weeks, scammers have risen from the woodwork quicker than you can scream “stimulus check!”

Along with the hordes of rampant robocallers and salivating solicitors have come mighty myths. As always, Great Stuff is here to help you tell truth from fiction … or at least debunk what nonsense people post online.

If you have questions on your stimulus check — or know anyone who’s easily fooled by pranks, scams and gags — today’s Quote of the Week is for you, courtesy of CNBC’s Make It.

CNBC’s article busts seven different myths that you might’ve seen slithering their way across social media. (Surely not by word of mouth … you aren’t breaking social distancing, are you?)

I highly recommend you read through the entire piece … but here’s the skinny in the meantime:

“The stimulus checks are not taxable income.”

“Assuming all of the information on your tax returns is correct, you will not repay the check next tax season.”

“If the IRS has your direct deposit banking information, then you should receive your payment in the next few weeks, according to the agency.”

“There is nothing most people need to do to receive a check.”

“With a few exceptions, as long as you have a Social Security number and meet the income eligibility requirements, you will receive a check.”

“Everyone who is eligible will receive a check. If you haven’t filed for 2019 yet, then the IRS will use your 2018 return to estimate your credit.”

“The IRS will not ask for money back.”

Seven myth-defying quotes in one Quote of the Week? Now that’s Great Stuff.

Seriously: If any of these myths made you think, “Oh, I know Bethany would fall for that…” then you need to forward this email to her pronto! Jeez, c’mon, Bethany…

Great Stuff: Won’t Get Fooled Again

It’s almost that time again! You know the drill, you “Marco,” I “Polo!”

Just two nights and a wake-up … and it’ll be time for this week’s edition of Reader Feedback. Have you written in yet? No? It only takes a sec to drop us a line at [email protected].

I’ve seen a sea of new names in the inbox this week, so if you’re just now tuning into Great Stuff, welcome aboard!

Many readers also wrote in with thoughts (read: rants) on reopening the U.S. economy. No matter your viewpoint on these viral times, all I can say is keep your emails coming!

Write to us anytime day or night (we’ve got nothing but time these days) with whatever’s on your mind … be it the market’s fake-outs, this upcoming earnings season or what keeps you occupied during quarantine.

In the meantime, don’t forget to check out Great Stuff on social media. If you can’t get enough meme-y market goodness, follow Great Stuff on Facebook and Twitter.

Until next time, be Great!

Regards,

Joseph Hargett

Editor, Great Stuff

#Timor Invest

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