#they're not all winners | Explore Tumblr posts and blogs

batsplat · 4 months ago

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hi! I don’t know if this is the type of question you’d like to answer, but I was thinking about how being born in the same year would have affected valentino and marc’s careers (as in both born 1979). would they or could they have started in the same year? would they be teammates at honda, and if so, would valentino still make the switch to yamaha? how does this affect rivalries with other riders? I just think it’s interesting to think about!

it sure is interesting to think about!! tossing it under the cut because this gets long and kinda dumb

well, look, let's set some basic conditions here. first of all, obviously we don't know if 1979-born marc reaches the same level of success because of how the sport changes over time, everything is super circumstantial, what even is 'talent' bla bla bla (kinda the stuff I talk about here). he can't use his signature riding style on those bikes, demands of the bikes are different, competitive ladders are different, local motorcycling scene is different, etc etc etc... hey, by the same token, maybe he'd be even more successful and would never lose a race. we're going to throw out all that nitpick-y shit and assume that he makes it to the top of the sport. we're also going to assume that marc and valentino are both able to compete with each other on relatively equal terms and go from there. we'll obviously never know either way, but this is the most fun way to approach it, like obviously either 'marc wins zero titles' and 'marc wins ten consecutive titles' are deeply unsatisfying outcomes... I do think you can get fun and nerdy into figuring out how exactly their respective strengths and weaknesses as riders compare, what their title fights might look like, the nitty gritty of which tracks they'd beat each other at... but I reckon this post is probably long enough as it is, so I've mostly skipped over those bits. they both win some titles, that's what we're going with

the precociousness question is interesting because, again, obviously marc's development timeline would inevitably look at least somewhat different in this universe. would he start grand prix racing a little later? would he need a little longer to adapt to those 500cc bikes than he does to motogp bikes? who knows. let's just play this the most simple, straightforward way possible and again assume he hits his early career milestones at the exact same rate - most importantly, of course winning the premier class title as a 20 year old rookie. it's an editorial choice that lets us skip to the fun stuff

so, the fun stuff. let's compare and contrast their journeys to the premier class:

top row is ages, bottom row is years in this timeline, the cells indicate championship positions, the colours indicate class (green = 125cc; blue = 250cc; lavender (?) = 500cc)

this actually works out quite nicely! they're not even really encroaching on each other's titles at this stage. if you really want to get into 1998 lore, obviously that title becomes way more complicated... aprilia is the strongest team, they had that 'super team' set up already filled up, do they supply four guys? is marc somewhere else? does valentino have worse machinery in that year? one of the two other guys? who knows, and also this feels like maybe a tangent for another day. let's assume they're both competitive here, and then it doesn't really matter so much if valentino ends up p3 in that championship - crucially, he still needed a big chunk of that season to adapt to the bike

so then! let's start with this time period, and rattle through some random thoughts about what the competitive landscape looks like pre-2001:

if marc is that good that early, he kinda hogs up a lot of the limelight. some folks took a bit of a punt on valentino in 1996 to get him into gp racing - yes, there were already signs of something special, but it was still all a bit more uncertain

so valentino is basically always in the position where he's hunting marc... he's constantly a step behind

now, it's actually possible to wager a good guess at how he reacts to that! the answer is 'not great': when he was constantly asked about biaggi, whether he was the biaggi of 125cc and all that, he came out with the line that biaggi would dream of being the valentino rossi of 250cc. in this timeline, I don't think the biaggi thing completely goes away because that's still italy's darling... but the first point of comparison would always be marc. and valentino unsurprisingly doesn't enjoy always being second best

of course, they do have enough overlap in the lower categories that they do actually get to fight each other on-track. 1996!valentino was, as he describes it, "an absolute pest". even though he only finished in ninth in the standings, he did get a win and was often in the front-running group, so let's say they do have a few on-track run in's during 125cc. chuck those two together as seventeen year olds, and this sounds like *checks notes* a bit of a health hazard. there is a genuine argument to be made that valentino is worse at this stage - from oxley's reference book about france 1996: "valentino was once again in the mix at paul ricard, ducking and diving in the midst of a leading group that numbered up to 16 riders, but he was riding harder than ever, using all the kerbs and then some and occasionally kicking out at rivals with his knees and elbows"

marc likes to respond to aggression by one-upping his rivals, so this feels like it just goes wrong. several times. while they're still in 125cc. also, marc is mostly winning that year, which really lights up valentino. if anything, he'd probably be even more motivated during those years, because now he's got someone to chase and someone he would just love to piss off

let's say marc still narrowly misses out on a rookie 250cc title in large part due to injury. they spend a year together in that class too, where valentino is doing a lot of learning - but is a frontrunner basically from the word go - and marc is going for the title properly now. they have a lot of intense annoyingly tactical battles this year, plenty of dramatic last lap battles, and it takes valentino around half the season until he starts winning some of these (irl, he won one of the first ten races of the season and then the last four - and also crashes a lot. marc was the class of the field)

this is the year in which marc is just... a lot. plenty of controversy!! practise crashes! back of the grid penalties! and if marc does stuff like 'trying to run his rival off-track', there is a bit of a risk valentino attempts to one-up him here. they are both starting to get real reputations, and valentino's probably gets worse by association lol

then marc heads off to the premier class. valentino dominates his 250cc title, but he's being overshadowed by marc doing the thing. which means he will be extremely fired up once he gets to the premier class himself... which might not actually help him. too much exuberance on those 500cc bikes sounds like a recipe for painful crashes

let's assume marc dominates the first half of that season and it takes valentino a while to get going. the second half is more competitive when valentino finally clicks with the 500cc's and marc starts making more errors... setting up what's to come

let's also say marc immediately gets to the repsol honda team because they really want the next big thing and the contract situation is different from when valentino joins a year later - whereas valentino still gets a shell satellite team set up for himself in 2000. he's still obviously highly rated by honda and they still give him doohan's old crew and presumably quite heavy factory backing... but there's also not quite the same urgency in the succession planning. you kinda want to sign the kid so nobody else gets him, right, and he did beat marc a few times at the end of 1998... who knows who ends up turning out better, yeah? but at the end of the day, marc is still Plan A and he seems to be working out pretty well for them

this is all well and good, but obviously a rivalry is a bit more than just a general vibe and on-track incidents and a list of results. so, my general thesis for how this relationship goes is that it kinda oscillates between 'pretty good vibes!!' and 'breaks your geiger counter'. this goes in cycles of about 2-3 years, becomes a lovely soap opera for the paddock to follow. so let’s say for instance that they go through a rough patch in 1998, and then again in 2001, and then again 2003-04, and so on…. then you get marc’s injury years and from then on it gets proper messy

so, here's a stab on what the interpersonal vibes look like during the early years:

valentino embraces the underdog position. you get this with the biaggi stuff but also you get it throughout his career... he actually likes it! he's so much about surprising people, subverting expectations, proving them wrong... he thrives in the role where everyone thinks marc is going to be the next big thing and dominate the sport for fifty years

he does also have the potential to be a major thorn in marc's side, especially if the title fight is as close as marc's canonical 125cc title was. but they do run into the same problem here that they unfortunately will always run into: they get on as people! their chemistry has never actually been an issue. back then, you'd also get more like... socialisation in the paddock... it's a bit more casual, less professionalised, they hang out more and are teenagers and are both young and annoyingly good and eventually get to that irritating 'you're the only bitch in this house I respect' thing

valentino is still very good at making marc laugh, and seems to find marc funny too so. that's a thing. marc canonically glomps onto a very small number of people, and he's already shown in real life one of those people can absolutely be valentino. we all know what we're here for and it's the most BORING outcome if they're just indifferent towards each other. but why would marc be! of course, he's completely taken in by the super talented charming rival who is actually willing to match his viciousness step for step. he wants to fight valentino forever and ever

marc does really want to be friends... once he knows valentino he decides he really likes him... sometimes he's a bit oblivious to how tough he's making valentino's life, sometimes he's wilfully disinterested... valentino is sucked in a little bit in spite of himself, though I still reckon valentino's cynicism about friendships with rivals was learned over time (hey ho sete). at the start, valentino is happy enough to be friends with his close rivals, and really it's only later that all those subconscious issues of keeping rivals at arms' length develop. he's there to have fun! it might be vicious on-track, but it's a party off-track!

and he thinks it'll totally be fine!! he's not adverse to chatting up rivals and trying to get a sense of how they tick for future reference... some of the stuff marc does bothers him, but it's not like he can immediately even articulate why. and it is tough, with how marc has long been the chosen boy... just how brutal marc gets when valentino gets close to beating him... and usually valentino reacts Just Fine to that, but he does file it all away for future reference, because he sure doesn't think marc is reacting that way to just anyone on-track...? and then sometimes marc is perceived as a real rival, sometimes he just makes valentino uncomfortable, and valentino suddenly remembers that Actually, this is a Work Relationship. in general valentino runs very hot and cold with marc, in a way that does make sense according to his internal logic but can get very confusing to anyone else, not least marc

the slight mismatch between their rates of progression also gives you these gap years where they're not directly competing... and valentino is really coming into his own in 1997. so, yes, valentino is constantly chasing marc from a competitive standpoint... but marc is watching valentino's celebrations and thinks they're just like. the best thing ever. accidental valentino rossi fan, poor soul. a big fan of the hairstyles and will enthusiastically defend them to any critics, including that one time when one of his parents made a derogatory remark about the green hair

what if they're proper friends in 1997 (age eighteen) and hung out and gone to parties together and gotten drunk and have just become Real Actual Teenage Friends while they're not racing each other... when marc gets his diplopia, what if valentino is kinda freaked by this, he'd been planning to get to 250cc to beat marc's ass next year... what if he goes to visit marc, what then...

still, this is probably around the time when valentino first says mildly annoying stuff about marc to the press (going by the biaggi precedent), which is how you set up them really going at it in 1998. it gets vicious... but also, they're young, they do kinda get over it, and then marc progresses to the premier class and they can just socialise normally again... all the while, valentino is watching what marc is doing and thinking about just how badly he wants to beat marc

valentino's rookie campaign in the premier class is also fine - because valentino is too busy adapting to the bike, marc is dominating, and traditionally those are not the circumstances in which valentino picks his fights. they have a lot of fun here together, and they're both very generous about each other's successes. marc is so impressive, I can't compare myself to him yet, valentino's adapting so well to the premier class, he'll definitely be fighting for titles soon, etc etc. fair fights (by their definition of 'fair', anyway) and them both being really complimentary towards each other afterwards. everyone who wanted beef is disappointed and disgusted, but at least you've still got the vale/biaggi thing going on in the background (btw marc also for SURE would've picked a fight with biaggi in 1999, so they can bond over that and pointedly chat to each other in pressers while ignoring biaggi)

valentino's ability to make marc laugh is particularly lethal in this year, because valentino’s struggling just enough that maybeeeee marc is being suckered just a little into thinking he’ll always have valentino covered. so he can just let himself have fun with valentino without feeling too threatened... this sets up the title fight in the following year being a complete and utter nightmare… late 2000 is already ringing a few alarm bells when marc’s results start getting messier and valentino is clearly finally properly getting to grips with the 500cc bikes (first dry race win late that year). oh well! I'm sure their relationship will survive just fine!

and then... well, again, super conveniently, valentino's first premier class title at age 22 matches up with... you know. marc's 2015

let’s just say marc does suffer a bit of head loss when he encounters his first real challenge in the sport, when there’s finally a bit of real adversity after so much success. valentino wins the first few races while marc has some patchier results, and then marc kinda tries too hard to close the gap - and then, whoops, he’s gone too far and he’s left himself with too much work to do. I did run the maths for their average points at xyz age just to have a rough measure of how the seasons compare… as in how valentino’s compare to valentino’s and marc’s compare to marc’s, because any comparison between the two is completely meaningless, very different competitive pictures. that being said, fun fact: biaggi actually scores slightly more average points per race in 2001 than marc does in 2015. still, I don’t really believe you can get marc to sepang 2015 that title fight, just isn't close enough… the marc/valentino relationship does still sour, but it’s because you get an assen equivalent... valentino wins in a slightly dubious manner, and marc doesn't react well... after which valentino goes ‘aha so it’s all right until I’m winning, yeah?’

valentino in this timeline has just like. such a massive victim complex. helps fire him up that everyone’s constantly underrating him NOBODY believed he could ever take on marc (this is mostly not true). the way the assen 2015 equivalent plays out is not just ‘what a sore loser’ but also ‘MARC NEVER BELIEVED I WAS GOING TO BE A SERIOUS THREAT AND THIS PROVES IT’. it’s like… deeply insulting to valentino and also triggers the bit of valentino’s brain where he has to prove everyone, most of all marc, wrong. that's how you get the interpersonal hurt! valentino fully believes marc has switched up towards him and can't handle any version of their rivalry where marc doesn't have the upper hand. and marc does need some time to get over it and maybe he did write off valentino just a teensy bit but also... this is just how he competes... he thinks of a lot of things as 'fair game' that others don't... and he does also view valentino differently when he's a real competitor, so valentino isn't even completely wrong... marc does react badly to losing for the first time... but it's also more complicated than that, because marc is genuinely fond of valentino and really does want to put all that aside when the title fight is over again, except valentino thinks marc has shown his true colours. whips this controversy out later on in the season as he has a habit of doing, presumably when there's not even really any title fight impetus because that's been mostly wrapped up. (which would be a bit unusual for him but, hey, he's young and silly, he doesn't start feuds in Sensible Ways back then.) so they just kinda both end up escalating it and making it ugly, and by the end of the year it's all a mess. without any competitive justification... it's a bit argentina 2018 vibes, like there's not really any point to it apart from how they both drive each other insane occasionally. big public controversy. nobody wins here!

my guess is that the general pattern of this relationship is that it’s fine any time marc has a clear edge, and devolves every time valentino challenges him. this isn’t necessarily because I think marc throws a fit every time he’s challenged - it’s primarily because valentino prefers to attack from a position of strength. basically, if you want to get something proper nasty from him, you either need to get him with his back against the wall where he reckons blowing shit up is his best choice… or you wait until he has the upper hand, at which point he attempts to press home his advantage. bite harder when the opponent is already bleeding, if you will. a big believer in being a mean winner over being a sore loser, valentino is, and you do see this trait at various stages of his career. also, mostly there has to be a competitive justification to start drama? if he can't fight properly on-track, then why bother? so at times, it’s all civil on the surface when he’s on the back foot… but when he’s on top or close to the top, then the knives really come out. incidentally, this is one of the reasons why irl he was relatively restrained with marc post-2015 (look, I’m aware it might not seem like that but he definitely was way less indiscriminate with the snide jibes lobbed at some of his other rivals than he was with marc). there was never a situation where it really felt worth it with marc, and it’s just… a better look to have a go at your opponent when you’re winning, right? in this alternate timeline, there absolutely are times when valentino feels like it’s worth it... first premier class title is still baby valentino who isn't really deliberately picking fights and is more genuinely hurt by what he believes is marc playing dirty, so it's all less deliberate and calculating. but from then on you do see this pattern a lot I reckon

in terms of fallout, obviously you’d have to assume their popularity would be at least a little more balanced - and at the very least there’d be more national loyalty from the spanish here (boo!! vale!! at!! jerez!!) BUT valentino is just very good at the charm offensive… all the quirky celebrations, plus everyone loves an underdog who takes on the big bad dominant athlete of the time… idk, I reckon he might still get the love of the masses. if their relationship completely deteriorates in 2001, that feels like disproportionately it gets uglier for marc. but it's too much for both of them!! valentino gets a bit spooked in a way he didn't irl after the biaggi rivalry… he really did like marc and against biaggi he did just end up being everyone's sweetheart ridwe in a way he can't quite pull off against another young star… and it's just all so polarising! the factionalism takes valentino aback a bit - I still think it's worse for marc, but valentino goes. hey. this isn't fun any more :(

and oh, by the way, valentino switches to repsol honda for the 2002 season

everybody is extremely hype to see what the two do to each other as teammates, Will They Murder Each Other, but they are initially disappointed… contrary to popular perception, valentino is in fact capable of biding his time, and he goes into that season deciding it’s in his interest to Not have any more drama - which marc broadly agrees with him on. this detente doesn’t last long, obviously, but I feel like this is the time period where they're both a bit more settled, a bit more consistent, less susceptible to complete head loss, can really go at it in the championship... you get a couple close title fights here I reckon, ones where they're trying not to reawaken the feud between each other but... hey, let's say they actually have a crash where they take each other out (the one thing they canonically did not get to do!!) while fighting for position. massively try to downplay it afterwards, they're both hard racers after all :))) but everyone kinda knows it's only so long until this goes badly again. except at the same time they're kinda forcibly exposed to each other a lot in their capacity as teammates and they remember how they were actually Friends and the line between pretending to enjoy each other's company and not pretending is blurred... and the initial drama wasn't as bad as sepang 2015 (also helps valentino that he won the equivalent title in this timeline lol) and valentino knows he's going to see so much of this guy... he's someone who doesn't want to spend much of his life in awkward silences... they're kinda destined to be rivals forever and ever and they're also teammates and there was way too much drama... so actually they do get back to a friendly jokey place... is it sincere? is it not? who knows (not them)

dealer's choice who wins these two titles. we can chuck in one of those where valentino wins the major on-track battles but then marc wins the title fairly comfortably or something... valentino would really relish those fights lbr, even when they don't alter the momentum of the season as much as he'd like. maybe they do get a super close title fight for flavour, one where they're both actually consistent and the big on-track battles do make a difference in terms of momentum and all that stuff. crucially! they still have FUN fighting each other! that's the key thing... plus, they have that annoying vibe where they think they're the only guys who can match each other... there's that mutual understanding that's built in the heat of battle, like they're the only one who really gets what the other is all about, nobody else can... if anything, marc is forced to respect valentino even more now that vale has actually managed to beat him over the course of a full season at least once. biaggi is still a personal antagonist for valentino, but even irl he does very much fade as a threat after the first title fight - and it's all kinda defanged by marc's presence. how borderline obsessed valentino ends up with marc. maybe biaggi still ends up being the real title threat in 2001 after marc nukes his hopes early that year, maybe you still have some of that canonical vale/biaggi drama, but by the end of that year it really is more about marc and THEIR whole thing

brief interlude for a list of jibes valentino likes throwing at marc on a semi-regular basis as he gets better at using the media:

inconsistent stewarding: easy one. valentino was canonically an absolute menace in his early days, but by the time they compete in 250cc I’m sure there’s some mildly phrased insinuations that marc really seems to be getting off lightly with his penalties. valentino isn’t as skilled a media operator back in those days - but with marc’s hit rate of controversial incidents, it’s just incredibly low hanging fruit. valentino picks it with ease

Stop Asking Me About Marc: see the biaggi of 125cc thing. valentino gets sick of being constantly compared to marc! he's his own girl! it's what prompts the first insults he lobs in marc's direction, and it becomes a bit of a running theme. it's not even that anti-marc, but the more sick he gets of The Narrative the more implicitly anti-marc it becomes (marc, who's a lot more into the idea that they're Eternal Rivals, doesn't start drama over what valentino says but it just makes him a bit sad :( like HE doesn't have any problem being compared with valentino Actually)

‘woe be on me for taking on Big Honda’: listen, irl obviously valentino was increasingly annoyed in 2003 when both sete and biaggi argued he had the better bike than them because he was in the factory team. irl that ��satellite team’ of his in 2000-01 barely was an independent outfit. still, would he have hesitated in 2001 to remind people that his number one rival was decked in repsol honda colours and he wasn't? well, probably not. just rhetorical positioning, right - he’s not even attacking marc, he’s just politely questioning whether honda really would prefer the satellite team to win the title and whether that might not have an influence on what bike parts they’re sending to which riders… just mentioning it! just reminding everyone of what an underdog he is! in case anyone had forgotten!

unequal treatment: this type of thing probably wouldn’t stop when valentino switches to the repsol honda squad. also probably would be justified lol - we’ll get to this in a second, but if he's facing a marc who has had time to make this team his own and is going to fight to keep it that way? yeah, hm. the way this works is that marc is waging most of this war behind the scenes and valentino, who'd be constantly on the back foot in this scenario given it never would have really been his team, is repeatedly taking it public. doesn't work particularly well beyond making marc's life more unpleasant - the public takes valentino's side, honda doesn't

'someone doesn’t like a challenge :((': again, the assen 2015 equivalent, where valentino points out their relationship was just fine until he started seriously challenging marc. young!vale doesn’t really have a reputation for being a particularly nasty competitor, especially if the biaggi feud is defanged just a little… so I reckon he could actually pull this off quite nicely. marc does rub a lot of people the wrong way, even without the valentino factor! he's so obviously rough and ruthless and so committed to winning that valentino can easily play victim here

'marc races me differently': basically the silverstone 2016 thing... it's not really something valentino complains about once they're through the 2001 title fight, and there is the understanding that this behaviour is kinda mutual - but valentino does occasionally throw in a snide remark. just to remind everyone that marc treats him differently!! he's extra aggressive with vale!! of course valentino is totally fine and chill with it, just wanted to remind everyone. in case they'd forgotten. just. a. reminder.

of course, there's also another major issue: the unique stresses of the teammate dynamic. here's the big question - does the switch of valentino to yamaha still happen? yeah, sure! I think he could well get flighty. marc would be the established guy within honda and someone that valentino would never be able to completely displace. plus a lot of valentino’s canonical complaints do still hold, about how honda doesn’t care who’s winning as long as it’s a honda, the stifling culture of winning, the joylessness… marc wouldn’t leave honda unless he absolutely has to because he loves that team, that's his home in a way it never is for valentino. but he is also obviously an absolutely awful teammate to have and, bit of a hot take here, when it comes to the development war stuff he kinda is worse than valentino. so you've got marc ensuring vale's input into the development process is constantly ignored, marc's entire team attempting to isolate valentino within honda, and he never does manage to ruin valentino's title hopes entirely, but inevitably the internal war is one valentino never comes particularly close to winning. in real life valentino sticks it out in repsol honda for a grand total of two years, aka the length of one contract cycle, which sounds about right for the length of time that team would survive until they do just start attempting to strangle each other. so vale goes to yamaha! this would not be a pretty divorce, and it would be even more obscenely risky than in real life, flat out insane from valentino. irl people think he's kinda crazy for doing it, in this universe people would think he's just an idiot. how on earth is he planning to beat the marc marquez on a yamaha?

interpersonally, the yamaha switch is. not good vibes. valentino has spent an entire year implying he feels imprisoned in a team with marc (LOVE brno 2003 in this universe), and marc finds this move a) baffling, and b) kinda loser behaviour because valentino can’t handle taking him on in the same team, so he’s essentially conceding the fight to marc. this dynamic is basically two years of marc attempting to bully valentino behind the scenes, trying to make his life hell, just endlessly gnawing away at him, and then valentino's like 'right lads I'm out' and marc goes :( why would you do this :(( I'm losing my main rival :(( I thought you were better than this :( I thought we had something special :(. for valentino, yes partly he's throwing a fit because he knows honda would never choose him over marc, partly it's justifiable frustration at being stuck in very much The Marc Team, but partly it's also kinda... not really fun for him... he does actually want his team to care about him... but honda doesn't care... so that's that

now, realistically, in this timeline marc has zero right to be losing to valentino in 2004 - not with that bike disparity. maybe if he loses his head completely! that’s… hm, 2018!marc, who we know did have some capacity for head loss. if marc builds up an early advantage while the yamaha is still at its dodgiest, it should theoretically be game over. if he does something silly… hey, who knows. that one’s a fun one psychologically because obviously marc would be the overwhelming favourite that year and valentino can completely embrace the underdog role. I do also reckon whoever wins this one, you can have a real big proper falling out either towards the start or maybe even towards the end of the season. it's all more serious now, somehow... being at honda together meant it just kinda felt like they'd be exchanging titles, honda didn't mind who won - but now both manufacturers are super into it, the press is even more into it, they're more into it... it's personal! they both have a point to prove! maybe marc dropped a few kinda mind games-y comments towards the end of their time together that he doesn't get why valentino felt like he had to leave, that it's not really what a rider does when they think they can win in a fair fight, kinda implying maybe valentino thinks he's already won enough titles and knows he isn't beating marc again anyway. valentino responds in a sane and proportionate manner (bottling it all up and then using any controversy that happens the following year to just unleash on marc). let's say marc wins that title (and valentino gets second place just ahead of sete), but valentino wins a big dramatic fight late that season, and there's some kind of justification for him to really lay into marc, to set off the feud all over again... all sets up their title fight the next year, of course

irl this is when they're both at their very best (2005/2019 respectively), so they get to be at their very best here too. in the name of balance, maybe you should let valentino have this one... or maybe not, swap these titles around at will. but if he DID, then he obviously builds that title charge around a big dramatic victory against marc early in the season on spanish soil. it feels lazy to just copy paste jerez 2005 and valentino being booed to this scenario, but let's assume marc does have his canonical early season crash at a friendly track (á la cota 2019) and that valentino does get that big victory at... hm, catalunya (ik, switching jerez for that is very creative) (but at least he can't get skittled by jorge lorenzo in this timeline). and the win is in somewhat controversial fashion and national partisanship is at a high here... canonically, valentino gets more aggressive in his racing during his switch to yamaha out of necessity, though in this world I imagine he would've already gone more extreme earlier while trying to match marc. they both kinda have to be careful to not go... too far, constantly flirting with the limit, exploring how much they can get away with, but they do have a duel here where they really push it. cause some controversy. give the season the right vibe (x)

no misano on the calendar unfortunately for an equivalent marc being booed moment, and I actually quite like the idea they both keep their respective mugello and sachsenring streaks (so no booing a victorious marc at mugello). each of which isn't the favourite track of the other, though vale in particular has had some great sachsenring scraps... and valentino's margin over the field at mugello is way smaller than marc's equivalent margin at sachsenring. but again, mugello's not really a fantastic marc track, and even without facing prime!valentino he didn't win after 2014, so it feels reasonable valentino could still get a bunch of consecutive wins there. I reckon we give marc a donington park victory, which was basically like valentino's second home race and a track valentino did really like. plus the british fans are canonically absolutely out of their minds so it works. the way the timeline works out that would unfortunately steal one of valentino's most iconic wins, but let's not overthink this eh

let's say their interpersonal relationship is actually slightly on the mend again after the nadir of the previous year, but the public has never been more divided... this is basically what everyone had wanted, right? the competition and the racing has never been better bla bla, they're nicely contrasting characters who are both happy to play dirty, and they give the press a lot to work with. (there are also a vocal minority who despise them both for being 'dangerous assholes' but what can you do.) hey, maybe they actually manage a season where they're the only two guys to win races, that would be kinda cool - and if you look at 2005/2019, surely it is possible... (I suppose sete is a bit more competitive here at least than he was irl because valentino has had the decency not to crush his soul.) narratively, of course it's a bit too neat to let them have this showdown just before it goes to shit for both of them, but they're the type of guys to make things narratively pleasing so I'll allow it. two nations divided, plenty of sniping at each other in the press, but #realfans will note they actually start meeting each other's gaze again in pressers and even manage to shake hands... let's say valentino does most of the points damage early that season, bites at marc from a position of strength (or something) to create a bit of a buffer, before running a bit of a defensive campaign, while marc is gradually ramping up the sheer levels of on-track terrorism. valentino does not remember the last time he had an fp2 session where he didn't have a honda-related jump scare. bless

anyway, listen, I don't really care about the order of these titles, beyond it being more fun for our purposes here if they're more or less balanced (though I do think it's neat if valentino is always kinda stuck chasing marc). they never get quite to the same relationship lows of sepang 2015 because, well, you needed a lot of very specific circumstances to get there irl - and I do think them being peers and being more familiar with each other does help... there's also no real power imbalance, or certainly not as extreme. plus, they're kinda aware from early on that they're stuck with each other. they're primed to spend their entire careers as rivals, like it or not! (I imagine valentino would very much Not like that at times.) they are both deeply pragmatic a lot of the time as racers, and valentino in particular would be less inclined to completely burn his bridges in this scenario I reckon. life's easier when you remain civil... and unwittingly they do keep remembering how fond they are of each other

brief interlude to ruminate on how this all actually affects them as people, vs their canon selves!

valentino never gets to be The One Guy in the sport, which does take something away from him in a way... a little less confidence, always a little more to prove. again, I do think he's quite comfortable in that underdog role and manages to make it his own. he's not as popular, he's not singlehandedly breathing new life into the sport... but on the other hand, what do people love more than a great rivalry? people would have gone crazy over them both, and valentino would've taken full advantage, turned them both into even bigger stars... still, there's a little more insecurity in there over his own abilities than there is irl where he was the single lord and master of the sport for years

the thing about marc is that so much of who he is as a racer feels to some extent influence or inspired by valentino that it's kinda tough to imagine who he is without that. then again, having valentino as a peer does allow valentino to still exert some of that influence (if obviously in a different way). they'd learn a lot from each other, at the end of the day - and even if marc doesn't hero worship valentino... he can still think vale's really cool... it's not star struck, but it's maybe a little bit star struck - given valentino is just so different to anyone else marc has ever come across

the power dynamic does change how they both approach the interpersonal relationship too... irl!valentino does really like adjusting his interpersonal warmth settings to what exactly he's attempting to accomplish in any given rivalry at any given point (even though, again, he's not that deliberate with it from the start of his career). but he's also less likely to completely freeze marc out... not for long, not forever. they basically do the 2016-18 cycle several times because they're competitive enough for long enough to be able to do that shit. warm with each other before there's another big fight, again and again

you do flip the dynamic a little bit in that valentino is the one to shape himself in response to marc a bit now... always chasing, perhaps a note of envy, perhaps some resentment of marc's role in the sport... perhaps also wishing he could get some independence, some freedom from marc and this joint legacy (also helps motivate the switch to yamaha). marc is way more into that shared legacy lbr, but they are both the types to get themselves nicely fired up over an enemy... so consciously or subconsciously they do play up that feud at times when it suits them competitively

no sepang 2015 trauma for marc! this valentino stuff might be bad, but it would never be that bad. he's a bit more happy to pick fights! a bit more happy to do his psychological warfare in the open! a little more openly annoying! less worried about how he's being perceived! more willing to meet valentino head on! let the man have some fun

okay. misery town... 2006

so, look, obviously we're applying some artistic license again here if we're keeping both the arm injury and valentino's dramatic last round loss. like, if you really want to get into it, valentino needs to lose the championship to someone and in this universe there's no seat available in repsol honda in 2003 so do you put hayden somewhere else within honda... but after that rookie season does honda still have enough faith to actually promote him... also does it make a difference if he doesn't have valentino there to directly give him advice... also, dani would PROBABLY just be promoted directly to the factory team in 2006... like idk I do feel this universe might kill nicky hayden's career and valentino should reallyyyyyy win this title. but like. fuck it. who cares. there's also a more abstract argument to be made about how irl!valentino does feel that he left something on the table in 2006 (personally I think it's one of his most impressive seasons but sure, I do get what he's saying) - but surely you wouldn't be 'complacent' in the same way if you hadn't won the last five titles? but again. nobody cares. let's assume they both still have broadly the same year they had irl, partly because there is something.... pleasing? sad? about how the ages DO actually match up here in terms of when their domination of the sport kinda collapses (if to completely different degrees). which would be a massive shock for the sport, right! both of those things irl are already a big shock, but if you have two super dominant forces you would kinda assume one of them would be able to pick up the pieces in any given year, even if the other falters? especially if 2005 was like, this ultra dominant season from the pair of them! but no, suddenly they're both diminished, maybe it is possible for someone else to actually win a title

(another 'fun' coincidence is that jerez is actually the season opener for the very last time in 2006... until 2020. so you can directly layer these races onto each other rather nicely, with valentino's first corner crash and marc's gravel excursion happening at jerez, two early disasters they're attempting to recover from before marc's crash)

on this year:

not really MUCH to say about it on-track if we're assuming it broadly plays out the same...

idk, guess it's about how you want to interpret their relationship. does valentino give marc a call? does he have an aneurysm watching marc attempting to race the following week in *checks notes* qatar? does he get quite stressed out about how cavalier marc is with his own safety, because unfortunately he does care about the guy? does he feel like he's missed his big chance to exploit marc's absence? does the press give him a lot of flak for this? any more insecurities to work through here?

hey, at least there isn't a pandemic in this universe

the thing is, right, if you've spent your entire racing career hunting down this one guy, who's always a step ahead of you, using him as a way to motivate yourself - so much spite, as ever, with valentino to get himself going - and then he just disappears... like they've been sharing the paddock for ten years, for valentino's entire grand prix career. his first memorable battles were against him, he was watching marc win titles in a higher category than vale, then this gradually escalating rivalry with more and more history and hatred and genuine friendship... you kinda inevitably end up defining yourself by the other, right? you can't avoid being shaped by that relationship, by that competitive push and pull. without quite the same interpersonal breakdown... well, valentino is someone who loves to hate his enemies. like, he does enjoy the animosity! he enjoys sniping at his rivals! he enjoys fighting them flat out on the track and off it! and if marc is suddenly gone, he's left feeling bereft. he doesn't get WHY, but he misses him...

marc starts getting long phone calls from valentino where he goes on increasingly incoherent rants about whatever aspect of the sport has annoyed him today. marc doesn't understand what's going on but he's not going to complain. it's a nice distraction

on to 2007! so, obviously the honda in 2007 is better than the honda in 2021, and irl dani does actually end up outscoring valentino by one point (after valentino attempted to ride in valencia with a broken hand and immediately had a mechanical dnf lol). (also idk what to do with the honda situation, let's pretend like honda panicked and created a three man team.) I'm gonna go ahead and say that this version of marc would get considerably better results than 2021!marc, but is not getting particularly close to winning that title. maybe he finishes fourth in the championship idk. he's missing races, honda's definitely not on ducati's level that year, honda/yamaha are still on the michelins at a time when the bridgestones are very much the tyre to be on

one rider who is guaranteed to insert himself into that rivalry in any timeline is, of course, casey stoner. now, casey does get a bit of a grace period from having to deal with marc... marc is absent for his rookie season and is still preoccupied with his injury afterwards. mostly, this is valentino’s problem… but also!! marc can multi-task. so you know how casey complained about valentino hazing him in practise sessions in 2006? and you know how marc would make himself a nuisance in 2019 when following around rookie fabio during quali? and how he followed around his new yamaha hire and rival vinales in pre-season testing in 2017 on a fact finding mission? and how irritated casey was when elias kept following him in successive races in 2007 (see here)? and how much marc was using this tactic post-2020, including by repeatedly picking on new big name pecco? how he generally does this in quite a targeted manner against his main rivals? and how he also tends to do it more when he knows it'll piss people off? so, let’s put all of those things together. how do we think that plays out?

this is why I reckon that despite how casey is nominally fighting valentino for the title, somehow you’d manage to have more open hostilities between casey and marc. again, remember how the casey/vale dynamic went irl: yes, casey was increasingly pissed off by the end of 2007 because he thought valentino wasn’t as nice to him any more and was also annoying in the press about him. but like, relatively speaking… this is still all quite small scale stuff. valentino mostly just does some wink wink nudge nudge stuff to the press that gets back to casey and annoys him because he thinks it’s contributing to an overall unfair narrative about his title… but it’s all still fairly subtle. valentino waits until laguna the following year to go all in, where he completely changes up his on-track tactics and - once he’s got his big win - he really makes sure to rub it in. there's a clear competitive justification for the laguna escalation, but his baseline level of on-track aggression with casey is relatively restrained until that point

by contrast, in this universe you get at least three or four incidents that year where casey extensively complains marc and marc just does the equivalent of a thumbs up (or a literal thumbs up, as he has been known to do). valentino determinedly stays out of it but probably silently enjoys it. by virtue of the negative effect marc and valentino have on each other, racing standards are really not at casey stoner acceptable levels at this time. casey doesn't enjoy valentino's media whisper campaign, but the marc stuff broadly bothers him more... in the races, outside of the races... irl valentino sort of retreated and regrouped late 2007, early 2008 and was less focused on fighting casey, more focused on exerting pressure on yamaha and figuring out the tyre switch he'd forced through. marc does NOT have a title fight to worry about and can instead dedicate himself to making a nuisance of himself. the thing is, casey is generally more inclined to expressing his annoyance through the media than on-track (unless he literally punches you, which he has of course done), so that's probably one of those weirdly one-sided situations where marc does drive casey absolutely insane but also doesn't really talk about it publicly while casey. does

all that being said, I don't really see any reason why casey wouldn't still win that 2007 title pretty handily, which brings us on to 2008. marc goes off halfway through to get his arm fixed, so no tricky title fight questions there. MY main question is whether he mimics valentino in switching to bridgestones. (irl!dani was still on michelins for like. most of the season until they pissed him off so bad he made the switch, which basically made a bunch of riders copy him and kinda brought about the single tyre era lol.) I think he does! bit awkward with michelin (as it was for valentino), but I reckon he'd also subscribe to the principle of wanting to take on his rivals on equal footing - and even if the tyres don't make as much of a difference as valentino says, at least everyone's in the same boat. so maybe that already kinda kills off the michelins at the start of 2008... and it's almost an act of silent solidarity, like marc has had an on and off enough 2007 that he's not fully on top of where he can make the michelins work and where he can't, and honda's telling him to stick with what he's got, but he's looked at what valentino's doing and gone. eh. if he can't do it then maybe it is a better idea to switch, so it's like an unspoken way of showing that he does kinda trust valentino's judgement... (I'm aware the two people still reading this likely don't give a shit about this, but I swear the tyre thing was a big enough deal that it does have major characterisation repercussions.) so valentino takes that title. you kinda assume marc would have considerably better results on that honda, certainly doesn't just have a single podium, hopefully gets a win somewhere. who knows

I do however have one specific suggestion for 2022-inspired drama

marc takes out defending champion and eventual 2008 runner-up casey lap one of his comeback race. valentino sends him flowers

brief interlude to talk about rivals!

again, think the main thing with biaggi is that it just takes a bit of attention away from the whole thing... the feud still happens because it's a rivalry between two italians that gets a lot of press hype, and valentino still doesn't shy away from pissing biaggi off - but there's still less of a spotlight on it. and yeah, wouldn't just be valentino who gets into some feisty exchanges with biaggi, looking at biaggi's track record

I feel bad for doing sete dirty up until now, so as the number one sete gibernau scholar currently active on this website (and quite possibly any website), I do need to address the sete question. the thing is, right, the appeal of the sete rivalry in canon is that it's kinda like. valentino fighting his internal demons. trying to figure out the honda thing. fighting sete who is a way of externalising the internal demons. inevitably, having a straightforward number one enemy and friend and rival and object of his obsessions does kinda distract from sete? who has to play the third man role in that dynamic, and finds it tougher to asset himself in any title fights (especially if we give 2004 to marc in a fairly straightforward manner)

I think sete would still have dramatic on-track battles with both of them! but it's also different if those fights don't have quite the same Implications, because the media narrative around them ends up being completely different. sete isn't being used to judge whether valentino is washed or not, basically

valentino/sete friendship saved!!!!

maybe sete wins the 2006 title for gresini in this timeline idk. sorry sete unfortunately I don't think u get cursed in this timeline :(

and now to the most important question: does casey prefer marc or valentino before he joins the premier class? so u can kinda go both ways on this... on the one hand, I think casey is more directly inspired by marc's style. also, he's a big fan of dominance, and the way this works out in my head is that marc does have more 'dominant' wins than valentino where he just comfortably gaps the field

then again... valentino does tend to go that extra step on the interpersonal stuff, is a bit friendlier with a bunch of riders including the up-and-comers, just generally more outgoing than marc is. (yes, I realise marc being more closed-off is partly the aftereffects of sepang 2015, but it's also a vibe idk. valentino is aggressively a people person, marc is charismatic but is really only interested in about four people at any given time.) plus, you've got the australian connection via valentino's crew chief, and vale probably does have a somewhat better reputation than marc in terms of being a dickhead on-track?

I reckon casey is fairly neutral on this rivalry and cites them both as inspirations in the generic sense, but does get on with valentino a touch better before they become rivals

he does end up kinda hating them both

valentino subconsciously probably does benefit from the emergence of casey as someone he can actually focus some negative energy on in marc's semi absence. gives him some fire again... gets him out of his funk... at heart he's a hater

maybe casey's relationship with valentino is a little better than irl because valentino is no longer the sole representative of everything that's wrong with the sport. like, you still get mad about laguna, right, but then you're also being crashed out by marc on the first lap of his post-injury comeback a couple of races later... like I said. he hates them both

casey already wants to unionise along age lines irl, in this universe he's lobbying for a new rule to force riders to retire at age 27

dani's a fun one, because inevitably he does kinda have a rough time of this scenario. first of all, he's not really honda's golden boy in the same way any more. you've already got marc. second of all, it's not completely implausible marc would've quietly tried and failed to block dani from joining the team at all

I actually think if you put those two respective versions of marc and dani against each other... more beef? puig surely becomes a bit of a nightmare in that team, even more than irl, constant ugly press briefings and insinuations that marc has developed this bike to shit (obviously would be ironic given what a marc... propagandist? puig became in irl post-2020 but y'know)

kinda like a worse version of the dani/hayden dynamic that's also a fusion with marc's dynamic with his post-2020 teammates, where it's just interpersonally quite cold and frigid and there's a lot of scrapping about who gets to lead the team in bike development. not ACTIVELY hostile 'let's kill each other on-track' but not really good vibes

is jorge lorenzo a marc fan in this universe? .... or. actually. is he more likely to be a proper valentino fan? canonically, the being a biaggi fan thing was a bit of contrarianism from jorge - but if you're going to be contrarian against the guy who is winning everything in this universe, it'd primarily be against marc. also, presumably a lot of his immediate circle would root for marc on the basis of national loyalty, so maybe that... could push him in valentino's direction?

on the flip side, if valentino is more popular, maybe he goes marc. god knows, maybe he'd still be a biaggi fan, but I kinda feel like this version of motogp in the noughties you have to choose a side. I think you can make a case for either direction

not that it really matters... if we're still slotting jorge into valentino's team, he was more committed to keeping that relationship respectful than with his other rivals, which.... uh. hate to say it, but I reckon you could give marc and jorge early beef too?

kinda depends, because there's only an overlap of two races where marc is back and before jorge is crashing himself to pieces in his rookie season, so he'd have to strike FAST. then again, he managed to piss off both dani and casey during that time period! he's efficient!!

still, long term jorge's number one priority remains valentino, and that's also where the more serious drama would likely originate

anyways!! one more year and then we're 'up to date'. honestly, there's no elegant way to integrate 2009 and 2023, so just do whatever really. the issue here is obviously the honda... which did have some proper gremlins in 2009, but like, normal gremlins not 2023 honda gremlins. obviously, if marc injures himself a bunch, he's not in the title fight, but presumably he's not injuring himself as much and not as reckless in frustration if he's not on that bloody murder honda. you could have him play the sepang 2015-lite role in the jorge/valentino title fight? I seem to remember the commentators at some point in 2009 saying that valentino had talked about how dani might end up playing a significant role in the title fight by way of like, taking points from the others in crucial places (something like that, I'm sure he phrased in a way that sounds less condescending). irl 2009 is a bit meh as a season apart from like. seven interesting races. (jerez le mans mugello catalunya sachsenring phillip island sepang iirc, and three of those are wet races.) so adding in extra marc marquez would probably spice up the product at least a little bit? a fit marc would presumably be in that title fight but y'know, given the yamaha was the best bike that year (apart from maybe the ducati, casey seems to think that was the best bike they ever made but who knows), maybe it still ends up being very much an intra-yamaha war. not super committed to any particular title fight scenario that season idk

and on the interpersonal relationship post-2006:

man the aliens getting involved does make it more complicated. over the course of his career, valentino generally doesn't really deliberately escalate feuds when he's not fighting someone directly for a title? of course there's a very obvious exception to this rule who is relevant here

I think to both of them it's still the Special Rivalry, even though valentino does not embrace it to the same extent as marc does. but subconsciously he still does embrace it...

they do have this fun thing where they very clearly race each other differently than they do anyone else (excepting days when valentino has something special cooked up for casey)

realistically obviously these on-track battles happen less because we are now in a dire dire era for racing that can't entirely be blamed on the riding styles of the other three aliens. but like I'm sure they still manage twice a year at least to cook up something fun

I've turned this around in my head a few times now and I... just don't really see valentino starting shit with marc during this era? and because he is a bit more the active instigator in that dynamic, but he'd be more inclined to brush off whatever shit marc is sending his way... I kinda think they'd be fine here? if anything, you might get to this slightly absurd place where it essentially mimics the 2013-14 vale/marc dynamic where they do low-key back each other up whenever a dispute rocks up. deeply confusing to anyone who has been around to see the years and years of relentless toxicity to see them repeatedly publicly agreeing like this

but like? if the other aliens (especially casey and dani) complained about marc and valentino's riding style...? hey maybe we get some good old-fashioned generational warfare, marc and valentino both going fuck them kids

also again as a baseline dynamic, they are fond of each other... they may have a lot of problems, but the interpersonal chemistry isn't one of them. if this is a period in which valentino is racking up a couple more titles and marc isn't, obviously this would be like. deeply distressing to marc. but also again I do feel you'd need two parties to escalate this feud again and I just don't think valentino would?

world peace era

kinda the question, right... irl you have 2018 as a new nadir and then the relationship edges back towards civility in 2019, minus isolated spats... and then you have enforced separation by way of covid/injury and that's kinda it for their interpersonal interactions. but in this universe, they do just... keep interacting... also they have so much more history with each other! less hero worship less active betrayal but more just them being teenagers who got drunk together a lot. they'd figure it out again imo!! it's still weird and loaded because they're both ultra competitive, but at the end of the day throwing in a bunch of other rivals into the mix makes them think about how maybe they do actually like each other a whole lot

and the injury does spook valentino... marc was suddenly gone... marc keeps hurting himself... canonically, valentino does show some real concern about marc's antics in 2012 - and okay, here valentino isn't the older one and isn't as traumatised and still believes in his own immortality a little more, but he's still not marc. and marc makes a stupid, reckless decision, and he leaves valentino... given how long they have been friends in this universe, it's just about enough of a scare that it maybe prompts valentino to reevaluate that relationship just a teensy bit? not enough to hold too firm in the face of competitive pressures, but enough to make valentino worry a little more about marc hurting himself than he's worried about marc being the biggest star in their world or their legacies being tied too closely together or whatever... and marc does infuriate him in this, but he does also care...

after this, you would have to get more creative with this universe. valentino breaks his leg, I guess. obviously, marc is not riding a satellite ducati. does valentino still go to ducati in this universe? who wins any of the titles going forward? do you really want to steal any of jorge's titles? what about casey? what happens when we hit the 2013 onwards stretch? idk I'll revisit this in three years time to compare and contrast with what happens irl in marc's timeline (psst since he's currently as old as vale was in 2010.... casey/marc teammate feud starts next year....?) and decide how to forcibly graft that onto this timeline. I'm not really attached to specific title numbers.... going forwards, you can have them compete 4eva - fuck the other aliens - or have only marc win titles or neither of them wins any more titles and that's that. who's to say!

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

so... like... what does this alternate universe change? obviously there's a bunch of cool on-track battles that would've been neat to see. they're both just fun racers to watch - with very different styles that match up very nicely - and of course the thought of both of them in their prime slugging it out week after week is tantalising in itself. I do think in general, valentino doesn't match marc's aggression as much as he assen 2015's his way through his problems... but also, you'd get some fun 'wow you've both taken each other out' races where both feel like they can't get away with yielding to the other. also, one of my favourite things about sports rivalries is how the way they engage with each other changes over time, how each new encounter inevitably in conversation with all the past fights they've had. in this universe you end up with a bigger sample size inevitably than irl (though honestly the irl one compares pretty positively with a lot of rivalries this century in terms of quality of on-track competition), plus it's over a larger time span. what do they learn from each other? what tricks do they pick up? how does that dynamic change over time? the most obvious shift informed by real life is that [2000 -> 2001] [2014 -> 2015] you go from marc winning the proper battles to valentino winning the proper battles, which helps bring about the marc head loss that season as valentino gets more comfortable with the bikes and the premier class and marc struggles for the first time. where you go from there... again, tbh it's dealer's choice, but the key thing is you have that dynamic of constantly revisiting old haunts and old battles and building on their history more and more and more... it's also super formative and constant for both of them in a way that none of their actual irl rivalries can quite be, like something that caries through from 125cc to 250cc to the premier class?? kids crashing into each other in 1996 and revisiting that same track in 2009 to fight it out again? they end up just sharing a lot with each other that completely eclipses any other on-track rivalry

but there's something... hm, I do really like the generational aspect of marc/valentino and to me it's one of the most interesting aspects of that rivalry, so I'm almost loathe to strip them of that, which is obviously why I've written a reasonable length tumblr post about this. when you make them peers, marc cannot steal valentino's moves, he can't supplant him, he won't have this hero worship that makes him construct himself in valentino's image. you kinda want to find a way to maintain aspects of that dynamic, right, where marc still sees valentino as like. the coolest thing ever. and doesn't model himself after him as much as admire him, sometimes from closer and sometimes from afar... valentino's always making racing fun - which it obviously is to marc too, marc's also a cheery kid, but they are a bit different in how... y'know, marc's constantly inventing new ways to overcome the pain barrier whereas valentino looks at all the more unpleasant aspects of racing and goes 'no thank you <3' (one of my favourite anecdotes about young valentino is what a wimp he was about the rain, which never quite went away). also they come from different enough backgrounds, valentino with his deeply laissez faire parents where he had to grow up quickly himself and occasionally parent them, marc with his deeply not laissez faire parents where the growing up is a bit more about the money of it all but he's still fairly sheltered and living the Professional Child Athlete Lifestyle... and whenever they're not actually racing each other, marc can still construct a bit of an idealised version of valentino in his own head, where he doesn't as much want to be him as he wants to be around him. the reflected glow of all that joy

you tease out the most interesting elements of valentino's side of the equation by going all in on the resentment imo. marc might not be replacing him in this universe, the stuff he 'has' in this universe is fundamentally stuff valentino can take from him if he's good enough... but marc's just everywhere, isn't he? always a little ahead, always seen as the next big thing, burns bright very very early. valentino wants his own legacy! he wants to be his own guy! but he's also a storyteller, and there is a story to be told here... one about how he's just a girl, in a big big world, taking on the big bad marc marquez. so in his head he'd just love to get rid of marc, but also he gets to this weird place where he kinda needs him.... he ends up defining himself against marc, both in the public's eye and in his own mind. they're both each other's biggest points of reference, to where they're eventually each other's only reference. and just like in real life, valentino never quite escapes how all this resentment stems from self-recognition... it's resentment based on how similar they are and how unfair it is that there's someone who's this good who's this much a match for valentino... all because they're similar enough in their approach to competition, grinning while twisting in the knives, vicious in the heat of battle... and because they do both fundamentally want to have fun! so sometimes valentino might love to hate marc but mostly he just loves to fight him...

anyway. what would this timeline adjustment actually add beyond a bunch of on-track battles? I think the main thing you get here is the kinda.... intimacy... from having been teenagers at the same time, having been given the time and space to actually build up a relationship as peers that constantly gets chipped at and reconstructed again and again and again. they kinda function as each other's foils, which they do anyway but here it's from a position of equality. irl, you actually have to jump through some major narrative hoops to even put them both in a position where they'd consider becoming friends (thanks real life for jumping through those hoops). you don't have to do that in this universe! valentino did get more cynical about being both friends and rivals over time (or at least that's my theory, see here) - but when he's a teenager, he's not going to be cautious in the same way! if he likes marc, which the evidence we have suggests he very much would, he'd just be friends with him! the normal way! valentino isn't prepared for the entire thing turning ugly because he's never done this before, there's no past experiences he'd be drawing on here and would be inspired by in starting feuds with his friends-turned-enemies. they'd both be young and innocent and kinda get into the process of feuding in an organic manner, as it should be

and, yeah, the other element is that valentino... well. look. he's really not the fully formed package at the start of his career, including when it comes to media manipulation. but it's always in there somewhere... there's something fun about this being baby's first feud! irl he kinda stumbles into the biaggi one, right, where he says some shady stuff about biaggi and then he's like 'wait a moment the journalists actually report on what I tell them??' and then it escalates from there. very trial and error! in this universe, valentino can trial and error this feud, where he just says some kinda feisty stuff to the press about how he doesn't always want to be compared to marc marquez and maybe they should be asking marc about him, y'know, the cocky little shit - and the public animosity comes and goes in waves where they have one serious spat in the lower categories, then patch it up again, then a proper feud, then it gets better again, then more feuding, etc etc etc.... and in all of this, they're both very into using the media as the way to litigate this feud - especially when they really aren't speaking to each other. and valentino's occasionally quite deliberately drawing the public to his side to make marc's life less pleasant, which he gets better and better at as the years pass. valentino does help turn marc into a bit of a heel, someone the public loves to hate and to root against. (though, again, it is very very important to me you get some crowds booing valentino.) marc's just too good! too vicious! and unlucky to have valentino, the people's princess and poor wee underdog, as his primary rival! but even then, because valentino is younger and less jaded, there's also a level of hostility that he would shy away from. and the fact that they're so inescapable to each other also helps the feud die down each time. because you don't want every single podium until the end of time to be unbearably awkward...

in a way. the direct competition does make things more vicious but more straightforwardly so? and in a more equal way. broadly speaking they do have a better shot of figuring things out in this world imo! maybe valentino finds a qatar 2004 equivalent to burn everything to the ground, but I reckon he flirts with that line without quite crossing it... they have more argentina 2018 equivalents, stuff where one of them (probably marc) does something insane on the track and one of them (probably valentino) says something insane off it... but that's a bit more straightforward! what really makes sepang 2015 so fucked is that it's not a direct title fight between the two of them, like that's why it's the wound they can't heal from! irl it's almost like a commentary on the age gap, right, that they're barely overlapping in competitive windows and how the feud itself can't stem from something so direct... it had to happen in a more roundabout way that allows it to curdle into something far crueller and far more bitter... but the moment you make them peers, then it's all fair, really - a lot of the stuff they do to each other is more 'acceptable' and just part of being rivals and easier to eventually look past. (cf how they're both mostly still focused on sepang 2015 to this day, not argentina 2018.) for better or for worse, they're trapped with each other... irl, part of the unequal power dynamics stem from the simple fact that valentino was integral to marc's childhood but marc wasn't to valentino's. marc can't escape valentino not only because of their shared history, but also because valentino was such a big part of growing up, of figuring out who he'd become... hero worship as a formative process - where however marc feels about valentino now, there's still elements of his identity as a racer and as a person that are inexorably linked to valentino. but here, when they're peers, neither of them can escape that - and when nostalgia comes calling, it does so for both of them. valentino can't just dismiss marc as part of his story, because marc has managed to so thoroughly make himself a part of it. which can make everything worse between them too... and they know each other so thoroughly they'll figure out some nicely brutal ways to hurt each other, again and again and again. they're so similar, so combustive, stuck with each other for so long that they can trial so many flavours of cruelty. but hey, let's be optimistic, just this once. they can't escape each other so they might as well learn to forgive each other

#i have notes for four different versions of yamaha!casey trust me idm answering this question!!#obviously i started with my casey takes and worked my way back to all the other stuff #irl fabio is so nice and forgiving about what happened at aragon 2022. *squints at my jerez 2011 notes* casey would Not be #also the way this works out timeline wise you'd obviously make this one of casey's two canonical dnfs right after laguna #they're tag teaming tormenting casey... leave my daughter alone you monsters...#brr brr #//#batsplat responds #spec tag #one of those asks where 90% was written comically fast and then I got stuck on the remaining 10%#this is like the reddit version of rpf #i was gonna say i finished this off while watching my favourite choker choke BUT I WATCHED MY FAVOURITE WINNER WIN #deeply fraudulent win and we're gonna be turned into mincemeat in three days anyway but y'know what. that's what it's all abouttttttttt

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