#the republican vote has always been pretty consistent so i'd be surprised if they picked up a huge number of votes from the dems

[maslows-pyramid-scheme]

The election results show that people who voted for Biden in 2020 didn't vote for Harris in 2024; in 2020, Biden received a record-breaking 81 million votes, whereas Harris, in 2024, has only received 70 million votes so far. If current trends continue, Harris can expect to have gotten about 73-4 million votes.

The election results also show that, contrary to popular opinion, Trump didn't make huge, nation-wide gains with minority voters: in 2020, Trump received 74 million voters, and in 2024, he has received - wait for it - 74 million votes so far. If current trends continue, Trump can expect to have gotten about 77-8 million votes.

Now, I've been seeing people blame marginalised groups for Trump's victory - it's white women voting along racial lines, it's Black, Asian, or Hispanic men voting along sex lines - but I don't think the results actually support that analysis given how small Trump's vote actually increased by (from the Dems or from non-voters?). I think the results show that, while Trump did made some gains, his victory can primarily be attributed to the 7-8 million people who voted for Biden in 2020 but did not vote for Harris in 2024, either because they flipped sides, or, more likely, because they just didn't vote at all...