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coolcolorfulthingstudent-blog · 6 years ago

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Football draw prediction banker for this weekend

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footballbettingtipstk-blog · 6 years ago

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Football draw prediction banker for this weekend

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ghostlyfestivalbouquetblr-blog · 6 years ago

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Football draw prediction banker for this weekend

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flauntpage · 6 years ago

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Premier League Picks Week 22

The new year so far is as unprofitable as the year prior was. But I still believe in what I’m doing, especially since so many of these outcomes are determined by things that no one could ever foresee no matter what sort of data bank is available.

Last weekend on this site I picked the Philadelphia Eagles to lose to the Chicago Bears but to cover 6.5 points. It was actually a rocking chair cover as these things go — the Eagles were down 5 late in the game before Nick Foles saved them again. Well, Foles and former Eagle Cody Parkey (with some help from current Eagle Treyvon Hester):

The NFL officially changes Cody Parkey's missed field goal to a blocked kick by Treyvon Hester

(via @Eagles)pic.twitter.com/IdMCp65W5B

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 7, 2019

Parkey’s kick goes through and my prediction is basically spot on — Eagles loss, cover, you’re welcome. I’ve never been happier to be wrong…but it doesn’t get much stranger than that.

In my first soccer picks column of 2019, after splitting my first two picks, I only needed league-leading Liverpool to win or draw away to Manchester City to give me a second consecutive winning week. Liverpool was in line to take an early lead, which would most likely have led to them winning or at worst earning a draw, when this happened:

John Stones' goal-line clearance denied Liverpool the chance to maintain their undefeated record in the Premier League.

And on further inspection, the ball was inches from crossing the line!

MORE: https://t.co/3FdYqECbBa pic.twitter.com/LQLfcEyJkR

— FOX Sports Football (@FOXFOOTBALL) January 3, 2019

The tweet doesn’t even mention that Liverpool’s Sadio Mane had hit the post seconds before Stones miraculously volleyed that ball out in the last split second he had left. It’s tough to be on the wrong side of the result when the analysis going into the pick is sound.

The only solace is just that: The analysis is sound, and the results are due to come good. Here come your Week 22 winners:

0⃣ to

in 11 seconds!#COYS pic.twitter.com/sweY6tVwdU

— Tottenham Hotspur (@SpursOfficial) January 11, 2019

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR v. MANCHESTER UNITED

United has treated me quite well since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took over for Jose Mourinho as manager of the biggest club in England. As a City supporter, though, I have been waiting for the right time to bail out on United and make some money doing it. That time is now.

Tottenham Hotspur had an unsightly blip against Wolverhampton Wanderers on December 29, but that defeat was preceded by five straight wins in the league. Spurs comfortably dispatched Cardiff City on New Year’s Day, and since then have advanced to the fourth round of the FA Cup and won a crucial first leg against Chelsea in the semi-final of the Carabao Cup. Manager Mauricio Pochettino has Spurs scoring goals for fun and winning a lot.

It’s really tempting to just pick a goal total wager (over 2.5 goals feels like free money at 8/13 because United hasn’t kept a clean sheet against a top-5 team this season), but a Spurs win is just as likely and carries a better payoff, so take Spurs to win at 21/20.

MANCHESTER CITY v. WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS

City is still my team but I didn’t much care for their antics over this most recent domestic cups break. City’s opponent in the Carabao Cup, Burton Albion, saw that City hung a 7-0 beating on Rotherham United in their FA Cup match, and had this to say:

After a quiet Sunday without football, Albion admin logs on to Twitter this morning to check yesterday's @ManCity score.#BAFC pic.twitter.com/pB2JlHdOv2

— Burton Albion FC (@burtonalbionfc) January 7, 2019

Little could anyone know that 7-0 was a scoreline Burton Albion would envy by the end of the first leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final:

Manchester City will take a 9-0 lead into the second leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final against Burton Albion.

Report: https://t.co/YgQmjlBm3K pic.twitter.com/kOc6c5JU8u

— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) January 9, 2019

A little context: City is one of the richest and most powerful sides in the world. City is favored to win the Champions League (which is ridiculous, but those are the odds). City is the defending Premier League champion. Rotherham is in danger of falling out of the Championship, which would put them in League One with Burton.

Pep Guardiola might have been feeling himself a little bit after (barely) beating Liverpool. And it is indisputable that there is no room for mercy or for not trying in professional sport. But that assumes comparable opponents. That’s not what these matches were. These were empty routs. I’m not the only one saying this:

"I thought it was cruel. Humiliating"

Andy Hinchcliffe felt sorry for Burton Albion this evening.

Report: https://t.co/utLms3CoGk pic.twitter.com/OC9ptGGFDM

— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) January 9, 2019

Pride goeth before a fall, it’s written, and in a perverse way I would love to see City dragged for its arrogance in this matchup with Wolves. Unfortunately, all of the indicators are going the other way. Wolves drew with City earlier this season, so City will be motivated to correct that error. Wolves posted wins over Chelsea and Spurs in past month — but they also drew with Fulham and lost to Crystal Palace at home.

Wolves are just too uneven to trust. Throw in City’s inability to keep a clean sheet in the league (eight straight matches conceding since December 1) and this looks all the world like 2-1 or 3-1 to City. So take City to win AND over 2.5 goals at 8/13.

CARDIFF CITY v. HUDDERSFIELD TOWN

We can’t spend all our time (and money) in the upper tier of the league. Sometimes you have to slum it. So here we go, making a selection in a match featuring 17th-place Cardiff City and DFL (20th-place) Huddersfield Town. I feel a little dirty…not for the first time.

Cardiff is no prize, but give the Bluebirds this: They know which matches they absolutely must take points from. Against the three teams above them in the table (Crystal Palace, Newcastle United, Burnley) and the three teams below them (Southampton, Fulham, Huddersfield Town), Cardiff’s results this season are two wins, three draws, and a loss. Additionally, Cardiff beat Leicester City on December 29 before their understandable loss to Spurs. Cardiff knows this is a six-point match from a relegation standpoint, they’re better than Huddersfield and they’re at home.

@Sol14Bamba: "We talk to away players after games and they say that coming here is always intimidating…"

More from Saturday's @TheBluebirdProg feature

https://t.co/I2UQ6il1eQ#CARHUD #CityAsOne

— Cardiff City FC (@CardiffCityFC) January 11, 2019

Meanwhile, Huddersfield has plunged to the bottom of the table on the strength of eight straight league losses. They have scored 13 goals in 21 matches and have only one road win in the league this season. The dream isn’t dead for the Terriers, but it’s on life support and fading fast. Take Cardiff to win at 5/4.

Good luck this weekend.

Week 21 results:

Manchester United to win at Newcastle United at 6/10: WIN

Wolverhampton Wanderers to beat Crystal Palace at evens: LOSS

Liverpool to win or draw at Manchester City at 8/11: LOSS

WEEK 22 TOTAL: -$140

SEASON TO DATE: -$1237

The post Premier League Picks Week 22 appeared first on Crossing Broad.

Premier League Picks Week 22 published first on https://footballhighlightseurope.tumblr.com/

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reneeacaseyfl · 5 years ago

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On Whose Land Do You Sit?: raceAhead

Hugh Weber is a consultant, a creative convener, a marketer, a design expert, an advocate for rural communities, and a dear friend to raceAhead.

So, I was prepared for his most recent TEDx talk, organized in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, to be inspiring. But his elegant introduction got my attention first.

He talked about the collective inheritance of place, made more complex by how people came to be in that uniquely “American” room. “Some of us… not many of us, came from ancestors who were brought here against their will,” he said, others were drawn in by the hope of a better future. “And others have lived here since the beginning of time.”

“Since I believe that the foundations of community are acknowledgement, trust, and a mutual respect across barriers of heritage, belief, and difference… I would like to acknowledge that this event is being held on the traditional ancestral lands of the Ochente Shakoan people.”

This simple acknowledgment is becoming more common now, finding its way into high profile moments, like Anne Hathaway’s similar acknowledgment when she received her star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame this spring.

“I started to think about the land that goes underneath the star, that land that goes beneath all of these stars, and how it was cared and kept for millennia, more than millennia, by the Tongva people,” she said. “I think it’s important to mention that they still live here today. So the soul and the spirit that runs through the earth beneath us originates with and continues to be kept by them.”

“So I would like to begin by thanking the Tongva people and by acknowledging that they are the rightful keepers of the land this star is on.”

But they’re also found in everyday moments, too.

The United States is late to the land acknowledgment practice, lagging behind New Zealand, Australia, and Canada. There, schools, meetings, even hockey games frequently begin with even a perfunctory acknowledgment, explains Teen Vogue. “An acknowledgment might be short: ‘This event is taking place on traditional Chickasaw land.’ Or it might be longer and more specific: ‘We are gathered today on the occupied territory of the Musqueam people, who have stewarded this land for generations.’”

I am writing this column today on the ancestral lands of the Tequesta people. They hunted, fished, and lived their lives in this beautiful place. From what I can gather, they were slowly devastated by European diseases starting in the 1500s, embroiled in colonial-era conflicts, and pestered to convert to Christianity against their will. Most Tequesta survivors were sent to Cuba by the Spanish by the mid-1700s. Only ten words from their language have been preserved.

I can now attest that land acknowledgment really makes you feel some type of way.

Felicia Garcia (Chumash) and Jane Anderson, both associated with the Museum Studies department at New York University, have compiled a comprehensive guide to land acknowledgment statements for arts and education organizations which looks like an excellent resource for everyone else, too.

Northwestern University has an interesting resource that shares their work with healing and acknowledgment. They’ve posted a list derived from a steering group of Native and Indigenous people who shared what the practice means to them. Here are a few choice ones: Addressing invisibility; defrosting the past; feels good spiritually/emotionally; can be performative; must be paired with action; honoring.

It’s all part of the delicate work of decolonizing, a journey very few organizations or individuals have begun in any kind of earnest. Maybe it’s just the oppressive heat of the racist times we’re living in, but “defrosting the past” sounds like something worth doing.

Let me know what you think.

By the way, Weber works as a professional “creative counsel,” advancing the aims of creative organizations by connecting the dots between their capabilities and possibility. His excellent TEDx talk, well worth your time, soon moved from the dusty plains of Ochente land to a miraculous school in the D.C. neighborhood where a fifteen-year-old “king” named Gerald Watson had been shot and killed.

He quickly makes the case that all dots are there to be connected if you’re just willing to open your heart and look. Enjoy.

On Point

Protecting Hawaii’s Mauna Kea The dormant volcano has tremendous significance to many kanaka ’ōiwi (native Hawaiians), explains marine paleoecologist Sara Segura Kahanamoku. But now, kiaʻi (guardians) are currently holding vigils to stop the construction of the world’s largest ground-based telescope on its summit. The protesters are being framed as anti-science and barriers to progress. This is a false choice that masks the bigger issue, she says. Who gets to decide the future? “I am kanaka ‘ōiwi, and I do science because I am Hawaiian,” she begins. “I research out of aloha ’āina, a deep familial love for the land.” There is a dark, colonial history of astronomy in Hawaii that’s worth learning. “I envision a future where the practice of science is truly ethical,” she says. “[W]here human rights, including the rights of indigenous people to self-determination, are upheld through the practice of science.” Massive Science

Research: Officer diversity doesn’t change racial disparities in police shootings Data published by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences yesterday found that as the percentage of officers of color increase, citizens who are killed in officer-involved shootings are more likely to be people of color. The research also claims to find no evidence that white officers are more likely to fatally shoot people of color. Researchers used a database of 900 officer-involved shootings from 2015; their explanation for the primary findings were that the officers were drawn from the same demographic pool. By way of comparison, an investigation by The Guardian found that in 2015, people of color were more likely than their white counterparts to be killed by police officers. The Guardian

Trump administration seeks to remove food stamp benefits from 3.1 million people Currently, 43 states allow people to automatically qualify for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, if they also qualify for other types of federal assistance; the proposed rule change would force 3.1 million to reapply for the benefit. If successful, the move could save the federal government some $2.5 billion a year. USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue said the change is to remove a loophole that let unqualified people participate. But Senator Debbie Stabenow, ranking member of the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, says he’s wrong. “This rule would take food away from families, prevent children from getting school meals, and make it harder for states to administer food assistance.” SNAP provides free food to 40 million Americans, or about 12% of the total U.S. population. Reuters

On Background

The ‘safety net’ works, y’all Two Harvard University economists examined 133 U.S. policy changes over the 50 years looking for the biggest bang for the investment buck—which includes analyzing Medicare and Medicaid expansions, the introduction of food stamps, and dozens of state and local programs. The goal was to identify the interventions that saved the government money long term, typically by figuring out which who ended up need less assistance over time, or who were able to increase their earnings and taxes paid. Programs benefitting low-income kids were the clear winner; every dollar spent on education and health care programs returned 47 cents in down-the-road savings. “The results show there’s a potential to get really high returns when you’re focusing on kids,” says co-author Ben Sprung-Keyser. Wall Street Journal

What’s another way to be transgender in young adult novels? We live in a time in which its possible for a transgender or questioning teen to see themselves in works of fiction. This is tremendous progress, notes reviewer Clarence Harlan Orsi, ticking through a helpful list of popular books. But what comes next? “A lot has changed for trans people in the last 15 years, yet the novels reflect a relatively unified perspective,” he says. Part of the problem is the formulaic nature of YA novels themselves. “The pedagogy of these novels entails setting up a series of rites of passage and then repeating them in different iterations,” which always means some predictable moments—gender affirming prom clothes, the first bullying, coming out to an unwelcoming family. All of this requires a “didactic obligation” that masks missed opportunities to tell different stories. “[I]t is not enough to simply want to transition. Rather, these books must prove that changing genders is the only thing that will keep these characters alive.” L.A. Review of Books

Sixty years later, a picture of closeted love emerges This is a story that’s sure to bring the water to your eyes. In 1957, a young man dropped off a roll of film to be developed at his corner drug store. The pictures were of his wedding, but he never received them. The photos were of a touching commitment ceremony to another man, and the store manager withheld them for being “inappropriate.” But a warm-hearted clerk kept the pictures, hoping to run into the groom somewhere. Now, many years after her passing, the photos belong to an advocacy group who are looking to reunite the photos with either the couple or their families. Do you know them? The Philadelphia Citizen

Tamara El-Waylly helps produce raceAhead.

Quote

“I believe in white supremacy. We can’t all of a sudden get down on our knees and turn everything over to the leadership of the blacks… I don’t feel we did wrong in taking this great country away from [Native Americans], if that’s what you’re asking. Our so-called stealing of this country from them was just a matter of survival. There were great numbers of people who needed new land, and the Indians were selfishly trying to keep it for themselves.”

—John Wayne in an interview for Playboy

Credit: Source link

The post On Whose Land Do You Sit?: raceAhead appeared first on WeeklyReviewer.

from WeeklyReviewer https://weeklyreviewer.com/on-whose-land-do-you-sit-raceahead/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=on-whose-land-do-you-sit-raceahead from WeeklyReviewer https://weeklyreviewer.tumblr.com/post/186510070417

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velmaemyers88 · 5 years ago

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On Whose Land Do You Sit?: raceAhead

Hugh Weber is a consultant, a creative convener, a marketer, a design expert, an advocate for rural communities, and a dear friend to raceAhead.

So, I was prepared for his most recent TEDx talk, organized in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, to be inspiring. But his elegant introduction got my attention first.

“So I would like to begin by thanking the Tongva people and by acknowledging that they are the rightful keepers of the land this star is on.”

But they’re also found in everyday moments, too.

I can now attest that land acknowledgment really makes you feel some type of way.

Let me know what you think.

He quickly makes the case that all dots are there to be connected if you’re just willing to open your heart and look. Enjoy.

On Point

On Background

Tamara El-Waylly helps produce raceAhead.

Quote

—John Wayne in an interview for Playboy

Credit: Source link

The post On Whose Land Do You Sit?: raceAhead appeared first on WeeklyReviewer.

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weeklyreviewer · 5 years ago

Text

On Whose Land Do You Sit?: raceAhead

Hugh Weber is a consultant, a creative convener, a marketer, a design expert, an advocate for rural communities, and a dear friend to raceAhead.

So, I was prepared for his most recent TEDx talk, organized in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, to be inspiring. But his elegant introduction got my attention first.

“So I would like to begin by thanking the Tongva people and by acknowledging that they are the rightful keepers of the land this star is on.”

But they’re also found in everyday moments, too.

I can now attest that land acknowledgment really makes you feel some type of way.

Let me know what you think.

He quickly makes the case that all dots are there to be connected if you’re just willing to open your heart and look. Enjoy.

On Point

On Background

Tamara El-Waylly helps produce raceAhead.

Quote

—John Wayne in an interview for Playboy

Credit: Source link

The post On Whose Land Do You Sit?: raceAhead appeared first on WeeklyReviewer.

from WeeklyReviewer https://weeklyreviewer.com/on-whose-land-do-you-sit-raceahead/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=on-whose-land-do-you-sit-raceahead

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lindyhunt · 7 years ago

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Facebook Removed 1.9 Million Pieces of Extremist Content in Q1 2018

Today, Facebook released its first ever Community Standards Enforcement Report to the public. This report includes a preliminary inventory of rule-violating content and the removal action Facebook took on it.

The report, which was included in the company's overall Transparency Report, largely covers the content in violation of Facebook's Community Standards that was discovered and removed from October 2017 to March 2018.

It focuses on content that falls into six key categories:

Graphic Violence

Adult Nudity and Sexual Activity

Terrorist Propaganda (ISIS, al-Qaeda and affiliates)

Hate Speech

Spam

Fake Accounts

Earlier this year, Facebook published its content moderation and internal Community Standards guidelines, in hopes of shedding light on why certain items are removed from the network. In the context of this newly released report, it was perhaps an anticipatory move prior to publishing content removal figures.

Here's a look at the nature and extent of content removal in the above six categories.

Facebook Publishes Its First-Ever Community Standards Enforcement Report

1. Graphic Violence

Facebook either removed or placed warning labels on roughly 3.5 million pieces of violent content in Q1 2018, 86% of which was flagged by its artificial intelligence (AI) system before anyone reported it to Facebook.

The Community Standards Enforcement Report includes an estimate of the total percentage of content views consisted of graphic violence. For instance, out of all content viewed on Facebook in Q1 2018, the company reports that somewhere between 0.22% and 0.27% violated standards for graphic violence.

Source: Facebook

That's up from the estimated 0.16% to 0.19% in Q4 2017 -- "despite improvements in our detection technology in Q1 2018." The explanation for that, the report says, is simply due to a greater amount of content of this nature published on Facebook.

Additionally, the 3.5 million pieces of content within this category -- on which Facebook took action -- is also an increase. The volume of content detected in Q1 2018 rose from 1.2 million in Q4 2017.

So while there was likely an overall increase in the content of this type shared on the network, the growth in the number on which Facebook took action is probably due, the report says, to improvements in its AI detection systems.

2. Adult Nudity and Sexual Activity

Facebook removed 21 million pieces of content containing adult nudity and sexual activity in Q1 2018 — 96% of that was discovered by its AI technology before it was reported.

It's predicted that 0.07% to 0.09% of all content viewed on Facebook in Q1 2018 violated standards for adult nudity and sexual activity in Q1 2018 -- so, roughly seven to nine views out of every 10,000.

Source: Facebook

That's an increase from six to eight views in the previous quarter, which is too small for Facebook to account for what might be causing it. In the previous quarter, as well, Facebook took action on a similar number of content pieces within this category.

3. Terrorist Propaganda

Facebook doesn't currently have statistics on the prevalence of terrorist propaganda on its site -- but it does report that it removed 1.9 pieces of such content from the network in Q1 2018.

Source: Facebook

Facebook's interception of 1.9 million pieces of extremist content is up more than 72% in the previous quarter, when 1.1 million pieces of terrorist propaganda content was removed.

Again, Facebook credits its AI detection systems for this increase -- 99.5% of such content removed in Q1 2018 was removed by these systems, compared to 96.9% in Q4 2017.

Facebook classifies terrorist propaganda as that which is "specifically related to ISIS, al-Qaeda and their affiliates."

4. Hate Speech

One of Facebook's boasting points in this report is the fact that its artificial intelligence systems were responsible for flagging and removing a good portion of the standards-violating content in many of these categories.

But when it comes to hate speech, writes Facebook VP of Product Management Guy Rosen in a statement, "our technology still doesn’t work that well."

Human review is still necessary to catch all instances of hate speech, Rosen explains, echoing many of the statements made about AI ethics during F8, Facebook's annual developer conference.

Not only is hate speech nuanced, but because humans (who train the artificially intelligent machines designed to help moderate content) have their own implicit biases, that can sometimes cause flaws in the way something as relatively subjective as hate speech is flagged.

Nonetheless, Facebook removed 2.5 million pieces of hate speech in Q1 2018, 38% of which was flagged by AI technology. It does not currently have statistics on the prevalence of hate speech within all content viewed on the site.

Source: Facebook

5. Spam

Facebook defines spam as "inauthentic activity that's automated (published by bots or scripts, for example) or coordinated (using multiple accounts to spread and promote deceptive content)."

It represents another category for which Facebook does not currently have exact figures of prevalence, as it says it's still "updating measurement methods for this violation type."

However, the report says that 837 million pieces of spam content were removed in Q1 2018 -- a 15% increase from Q4 2017.

Source: Facebook

6. Fake Accounts

"The key to fighting spam," writes Rosen, "is taking down the fake accounts that spread it."

Facebook removed roughly 583 million fake accounts in Q1 2018 -- a decrease of over 30% -- many of which were voided almost immediately after they were registered.

And despite these efforts, the company estimates that somewhere between 3-4% of all active accounts on Facebook during Q1 2018 were fake.

As for the decrease in fake account removal from the previous quarter, Facebook points to "external factors" like cyberattacks that often come with a deluge of fake account creation on the network -- usually by way of scripts and bots, with the goal of spreading as much spam and deceptive information as possible.

Because these factors occur with "variation," Facebook says, the number of fake accounts on which the company takes action can vary from quarter to quarter.

Why Facebook Is Publishing This Information

In a statement penned by Facebook VP of Analytics Alex Schultz, the company's reasons for making these numbers public is fairly simple: In transparency, there is accountability.

"Measurement done right helps organizations make smart decisions about the choices they face," Schultz writes, "rather than simply relying on anecdote or intuition."

And despite strong Q1 2018 earnings, as well as an enthusiastic response from the audience at F8, Facebook still continues to face a high degree of scrutiny.

Tomorrow, for instance, brings yet another congressional hearing regarding the Cambridge Analytica scandal, where whistleblower Christopher Wylie is due to testify before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee.

This week, Facebook has issued a particularly high volume of statements and announcements about its growing efforts in the areas of transparency and user protections. The last time Facebook issued a high volume of this type of content was in the weeks leading up to CEO Mark Zuckerberg's congressional hearings.

These latest announcements could indicate preparations for further hearings -- some outside of the U.S.

Facebook -- Zuckerberg, specifically -- is also under mounting pressure from international authorities to testify on user privacy and the weaponization of its network to influence major elections.

European Parliament continues to press Zuckerberg to appear in a hearing (now, it's willing to do so in a closed-door session, according to some reports) after initial rumors of such a testimony surfaced in April.

Additionally, members of U.K. Parliament have been particularly staunch about Zuckerberg appearing before them, after recent testimony from CTO Mike Schroepfer allegedly left several questions unanswered.

In an open letter to Facebook dated May 1, House of Commons Culture Committee chairman Damian Collins wrote that "the committee will resolve to issue a formal summons for [Zuckerberg] to appear when he is next in the UK."

I have today written to @facebook requesting that Mark Zuckerberg appears in front of @CommonsCMS as part of our inquiry into fake news and disinformation. Read it here: https://t.co/jXZ5TjiZld pic.twitter.com/m0NU5Uyf2L

— Damian Collins (@DamianCollins) May 1, 2018

Yesterday, Facebook's U.K. Head of Public Policy Rebecca Stimson issued a written response to that letter, in which she outlined answers to the 39 questions that the Committee said were left unanswered by Schroepfer's testimony.

"It is disappointing that a company with the resources of Facebook chooses not to provide a sufficient level of detail and transparency on various points," Collins responded today. "We expected both detail and data, and in a number of cases got excuses."

Featured image credit: Facebook

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thrashermaxey · 7 years ago

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Ramblings: Humboldt Strong, Flyers and Avalanche Clinch, Vigneault Fired, Thank You Sedins

Humboldt Strong, Flyers and Avalanche Clinch, Vigneault Fired, Thank You Sedins

With this being the final Saturday of the regular season, fantasy hockey leagues are wrapping up and crowning champions, if they haven’t done so already. The playoffs are around the corner and with that, playoff pools. Your favorite team might be gearing up for the playoffs, or (like mine) gearing up for the draft lottery.

Yet the normal excitement of all of this has been overshadowed by the unimaginable tragedy of the bus accident involving the Humboldt Broncos. Cam mentioned the news while it was still fresh in yesterday’s Ramblings. On Saturday we heard the unfortunate numbers. A total of 15 people lost their lives while others have been injured, some seriously. We are starting to hear about some of the stories of the victims, which include the head coach, radio play-by-play announcer, team captain, and son of a former NHLer. Here are some comprehensive biographies from the National Post.

If you would like to help the families of the victims, a GoFundMe page has been set up, which has raised over $2.5 million. The hockey community, and even some outside of the hockey community, has really come together with an outpouring of support for the families, who will never be able to replace their loved ones with any amount of money. But they will need that money for funerals and time off work as they grieve. The survivors could also be facing staggering medical costs, not to mention a sudden end to their hockey dreams.

These were lives that were lost too early and too suddenly. I really can't say much else here, except to offer my sincerest condolences to everyone affected. Hug your children and remind them to stay safe. I know this was difficult for my family to talk about today.

Tonight, we're all Broncos.#PrayForHumboldt pic.twitter.com/RCzmv767MK

— NHL (@NHL) April 7, 2018

A sport, united. #PrayForHumboldt pic.twitter.com/ji1xOYOgsK

— NHL (@NHL) April 8, 2018

Humboldt, we're all playing for you tonight. pic.twitter.com/YJoRsBvscs

— Calgary Flames (@NHLFlames) April 8, 2018

It makes the results of the games and the fantasy implications seem secondary. But my job is to cover that topic, so that is what I will try to do. There is still lots to talk about both from a real-life and fantasy perspective.

If you had told anyone that you thought Claude Giroux would score 100 points this season, they would have thought you were taking crazy pills. But in a season that has reverted away from another dead puck era, Giroux’s final tally reached 102 points (second in the NHL), thanks to his hat trick on Saturday afternoon. With a ten-game point streak and points in 18 of his last 19 games, Giroux represents a huge risk/reward gamble in playoff pools for those who understand that the Flyers’ playoff run might be short if their goaltending can’t keep it together.

Speaking of which, Brian Elliott earned a relatively easy 17-save shutout in his second start since returning from injury. Flyers’ fans have to be breathing a sigh of relief now, as Michal Neuvirth can’t stay healthy and Petr Mrazek’s numbers as a Flyer are actually worse than his Red Wings’ numbers. Cruising to an easy 5-0 victory, there wasn’t much doubt that the Flyers were going to clinch their playoff spot once the puck dropped on this game.

Aaaaaaand… the Rangers only needed several hours after the game to make a coaching change.

NYR have fired head coach Alain Vigneault. Search will commence for his replacement.

— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) April 8, 2018

I can’t say that I’m surprised, given that Vigneault has a history of favoring safe veterans over younger prospects, which doesn’t fit with the current direction of the Rangers. What I am surprised about is that it happened right away. Whoever takes over as coach for the Rangers won’t have an easy time guiding this team to a playoff spot next season, although that coach will likely be more committed to a rebuild and could help the younger players more. We’ll have to wait and see who is hired, though.

Will Vigneault be an NHL coach again? Absolutely. I’ll even predict he’ll eventually be the coach of the Montreal Canadiens again someday. Both Michel Therrien and Claude Julien have served two tours of duty, so I would expect AV to be back there again to continue the merry-go-round of bilingual coaches. That is, if another team that fires its coach over the next few days doesn’t get to him first.

In what was the most compelling matchup of the night, the Avalanche were able to cap off a major turnaround by clinching a playoff spot with a 5-2 win over the Blues. This was a 47-point increase for the Avs, which doubled what they earned last season.

Gabriel Landeskog was the key cog for the Avs, scoring a goal and adding two assists with six shots on goal and ten hits. We all know about the MVP-type season and drastic improvement from Nathan MacKinnon (44-point improvement), but Landeskog was able to improve by 29 points himself. It was impossible to predict this kind of production from either player last season, but both players were far too young to be written off completely.

For the Blues, Vladimir Tarasenko left the game after a collision along the boards resulting in an upper-body injury. This might seem like a moot point now that the Blues will miss the playoffs. But it sounds like a bit of a serious injury and probably worth monitoring this offseason if you are a Tarasenko keeper owner.

Since you now know all the playoff teams (just not all the matchups), don’t forget to download Dobber’s 2018 Playoff Draft List, which is available now! Fully customizable, or you can go with Dobber’s picks if you prefer.

Your confirmed playoff matchups are as follows:

Penguins/Flyers

Capitals/Blue Jackets

Predators/Avalanche

Jets/Wild

Golden Knights/Kings

Sharks/Ducks

The other two playoff series will depend on the outcome of the Bruins/Panthers matchup on Sunday. Check back for our Dobber writer playoff predictions early next week.

The Blue Jackets rested Artemi Panarin, Cam Atkinson, Seth Jones, Zach Werenski, and Sergei Bobrovsky on Saturday. Was it just to rest these players for the playoffs, or an attempt at a mini-tank to lose to Nashville and fall out of third to avoid a first-round matchup to Pittsburgh? You be the judge, but the Capitals might use that as motivation if they perceive this as a slight. It should be an interesting series, as the Jackets are a well-constructed team and should be a sexy first-round upset choice given the Capitals’ inability to get over the Metropolitan Division hump.

Speaking of the Capitals, Alex Ovechkin couldn’t quite get to 50 goals. You can’t fault him for lack of trying, as he managed to get to 49 by scoring two goals and taking eight shots on goal and 18 shot attempts on Saturday. So he’s your Rocket Richard Trophy winner. That’s two consecutive seasons of no 50-goal scorers, but at least we were closer this season than last. Ovie might not be many people’s idea of a Hart Trophy candidate, but he might be the most valuable player in your fantasy league because of the league-leading totals in both goals and shots (355).

By the way, just a friendly reminder that the Bruins/Panthers Sunday game has been entered into the CBS and Yahoo leagues, so check your league to find out if this game will count for you. A few weeks ago Sunday April 8 had not been entered because this game was not originally scheduled for this day (it was a makeup game for one cancelled earlier in the season), so there was some uncertainty as to whether it would count in fantasy leagues. So in some fantasy leagues, it goes without saying that you’ll want to load up on Bruins and Panthers.

In one roto league I targeted Colton Sceviour because he’s recorded points in four consecutive games and has been playing on the Panthers’ top two lines recently. And because I have one more game to burn at RW. Sceviour scored a goal and added an assist on Saturday while playing on a line with Jonathan Huberdeau and Vincent Trocheck.

Of course, check this game for healthy scratch information, just in case. The Bruins aren’t likely to scratch anyone important, as they will win their division if they pick up a win. The Panthers have just been eliminated from the playoffs, so they would be the more likely of the two teams to bench any studs.

If you needed clutch goaltending and a possible John Gibson injury replacement, Ryan Miller got the job done for you. Miller stopped all 31 shots he faced in earning the shutout against the Coyotes and his fourth consecutive win since Gibson went down. Miller used to start a ton of games but he is now 37 years old. So it will be interesting to see if he can carry the load if Gibson isn’t ready to start Game 1 of his playoff series next week.

In an absolutely mean-nothing game in the standings, Mark Jankowski broke out for four goals with a plus-3 on eight shots on goal in the Flames’ 7-1 win over Vegas. You probably weren’t targeting him if you needed a final push, as he had not recorded a point over his previous nine games. But because Sean Monahan was shut down, Jankowski was given minutes with Johnny Gaudreau. Jankowski finishes his rookie season with 17 goals, so there’s the potential for him to bump two-way forward Mikael Backlund out of second-line minutes next season.

Not exactly breaking news, but Connor McDavid is your Art Ross Trophy winner with 108 points, including two assists on Saturday. He’s a safe pick for first overall in next season’s drafts.

The Sedins were held without a point in their final game in Edmonton, although Daniel scored a goal in the shootout. Not quite as fun as Thursday’s overtime game against Arizona, where Daniel scored the winner in their last game in front of the home fans. Hollywood couldn’t have written a better ending.

A classy send off by the Oilers, who also presented the twins with a bottle of wine before the game. Henrik in particular made life difficult for the Oilers throughout his career, scoring more points against them (85 points in 96 games) than any other team. Interestingly enough, Daniel actually scored more points against the Flames (88) than the Oilers (84) in his career. Next for the Sedins: jersey retirement and hopefully the Hockey Hall of Fame!

{youtube}dHt3kOMaWq8{/youtube}

Classy as always @EdmontonOilers! The team just presented the Sedins with a nice retirement gift each. #ThankYouSedins pic.twitter.com/o1u0sOQqXa

— Vancouver Canucks (@Canucks) April 8, 2018

So if you’re Connor McDavid, the captain of the Edmonton Oilers, do you get to wear the special orange shirt while everyone else has to wear the dark blue shirts?

Finally, here is a compilation of some Sedin stats throughout their amazing careers.

#thankyouSedins pic.twitter.com/JPaDqnPiF9

— Jeff Paterson (@patersonjeff) April 8, 2018

For more fantasy hockey information, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-humboldt-strong-flyers-and-avalanche-clinch-vigneault-fired-thank-you-sedins/

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linkkeiri · 7 years ago

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Thursday Thoughts – Fed Blowing Housing Bubble 2.0?

Summary

Home prices have crossed over our 2007 bubble highs.

High prices and higher interest rates are the perfect recipe for disaster.

China is showing signs of slowing – also shades of 2007/8.

Here we go again.

As you can see from Naked Capitalism’s Case-Shiller Chart, those who forget the mistakes of the past are doomed to repeat them and we just passed the last "out of control" housing peak. As the Fed’s Neel Kashkari said about housing prices:

"It is really hard to spot bubbles with any confidence before they burst. Everyone can recognize a bubble after it bursts, and then many people convince themselves that they saw it on the way up."

As noted by Scofield, it’s really not hard at all to see when you are in a bubble, the hard part is predicting when they will finally burst. Housing prices jumped 7.7% from last year, far outpacing the growth in household incomes, thus making homes more and more unaffordable for the average buyer. However, the people buying homes are above average – generally in the Top 10% of Income Earnings which, in Donald Trump’s America, makes them better people than the other 90% of you and more deserving of a good home.

After all, what else matters in life but how much money you make, right? Of course right – you voted for it!

Some regions are more bubbly than others, mostly in Texas and out west (Seattle, Denver, San Francisco) with massive gains since the last bubble burst. Yesterday’s read on the Beige Book shows an economy that does not support this kind of housing recovery and just last night, San Francisco Fed President John Williams said the Fed is still on path for 2 more hikes in 2017 with a goal of 3% by 2019.

That’s up 2.5% from where we are now and do you know what happens to mortgage payments when they go from the current 3.5% average to 6%? Again, we only have to remember what happened in 2007/8 but, for example, a person buying a $250,000 house with a $200,000 mortgage pays $898/month at 3.5% but will pay $1,199/month at 6%. That’s $300/month more, which is 33% and people don’t buy houses, they buy mortgages so it’s going to be up to the homeowners to bring the price of the home down low enough for people to be able to afford the mortgage.

Also not included in Case-Shiller data is the insane increase in property taxes over the past decade with US states averaging 25% increases since 2009 adding an even larger burden to homebuyers. Since property taxes are generally determined against the property values, the rising prices of homes are a double hit on the homeowners – pair that with rising rates and that’s exactly how you burst a bubble.

Yet the markets seem oblivious to the flashing DANGER sign dead ahead in the road – just as investors are oblivious to the very obviously overbought conditions of the markets in general – just as we were generally oblivious in 2007.

One of the big warning signs we got in 2007 was a slowdown in China and, this morning, China’s PMI fell to 49.6 (contracting) from 50.3 last month. That’s the lowest reading since June of 2016 and Output fell to 50.2 from 51 – indicating orders are slowing down along with manufacturing. Of course, in June 2016, China was on the way up from the downturn of 2015, which led to the crash of the Chinese market from 28,600 on the Hang Seng in May (what a coincidence!) of 2015 to 18,200 in Feb of 2016 (down 36%) while the Shanghai fell from 716 to 355 (down 50%) and, even now, it’s only at 420 – never regaining it’s old glory.

But the Hang Seng (Hong Kong Big Caps) has mainly recovered and is back to 25,666 and if that’s not a sign to get out – I don’t know what is! We’ve been shorting China’s ETF (NYSEARCA:FXP) in our Options Opportunity Portfolio since April 3rd and our initial play was:

Buy 10 FXP May $25 calls for $2.50 ($2,500) Sell 10 FXP May $28 calls for $1 ($1,000) Sell 3 CHL Sept $55 puts for $3 ($900)

That’s net $600 on the $3,000 spread that’s $2,000 in the money to start so not a tough bar set to make up to $2,400 (400%) in short order. China Mobile (NYSE:CHL) is my favorite Chinese stock and I would love to initiate a position on them so it’s good cover in case Chinese stocks go higher and, if they don’t, we can begin working on a position from there.

We made $1,000 on the short calls and CHL is up $270 but we lost $1,650 on the May call before we rolled it to the June $24 calls and, so far, they are down $970 so we’re down net $1,350 down so far on 10. With FXP at $24.89 we can roll our 10 long June $24 calls ($1.15 = $1,150) to 20 Sept $22 ($3.40)/$26 ($1.40) bull call spreads at $2 ($4,000) so we’ll spend net $2,850 which, with our $1,350 loss, puts us in the $8,000 spread for net $4,200 so we still have $3,800 upside potential if FXP gets back to $26 by Sept as well as the remaining $630 to be gained on the CHL position.

Again, we don’t know WHEN the bubble will burst – we just want to be there when it does. I’ll also be putting out an FXP long for our TradeExchange followers (just the straight ETF there) – as it’s a nice hedge to the long positions we’ve taken.

Speaking of long positions, congratulations to those of you who went long on Oil (/CL), Gasoline (/RB) and Natural Gas (/NGV7) Futures – all of which got a great pop off last night’s API data. As you can see, we made a quick $1,000 per contract on the move in /RB and $750 per contract on /CL and /NG popped a nickel for $500 per contract there so a quick $2,250 gained, and we haven’t even gotten a move in Coffee (/KC) yet!

That’s what we do with our sideline cash. A futures contract uses about $4,000 in margin but generally we only hold them open for a few hours or a couple of days and our Options Opportunity Portfolio began on 8/8/15 with a virtual $100,000 and that portfolio is already just under $300,000 with 2 months to go until our 2nd anniversary yet we have $194,455 in CASH!!! (have I mentioned how much I like CASH!!! lately?), so we have tons of spare margin to make quick in and out trades like these.

You can follow the OOP in the Seeking Alpha Marketplace

Be careful out there!

Disclosure: I am/we are long CHL, FXP, SDS, DXD, SQQQ, TZA.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Positions as indicated but subject to RAPIDLY change (currently mainly cash and an otherwise slightly bearish mix of long and short positions – see previous posts for other trade ideas).

Source Article

The post Thursday Thoughts – Fed Blowing Housing Bubble 2.0? appeared first on LINK-KEIRI.

More Info At: http://www.link-keiri.com/thursday-thoughts-fed-blowing-housing-bubble-2-0/

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walkonwalkonwithhopeinyourheart · 7 years ago

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Quantifying Bad Luck via /r/LiverpoolFC

Quantifying Bad Luck

As I was talking to someone yesterday, I realized that I took it for granted that most people held the same view that I did with respect to how lucky we’ve been recently. That over this poor run, we've been turning in performances good enough to win games, but been unlucky in our own finishing or the opposition finishing an extraordinary proportion of their chances. Having seen a few of our xG (expected goal) shot maps, it seemed to me that this value would be easily quantifiable. So, with the help of the stats and figures provided by Caley Graphics, I endeavoured to put a number on our bad luck.

First, with respect to xG, here is an explanation of what the statistic seeks to quantify and how they do it. Most outfits have a different formula for how exactly they calculate xG, the more complicated of which take into account things like player value. Caley Graphics on twitter shares visualizations like this one from Arsenal's game against Swansea, which indicate from where shots are taken with the square markers, the weight in xG of shots by the size of the marker, and whether shots were converted by marking them pink. They’ve made these for all PL, Bundesliga, La Liga, and Serie A games this season, as well as most European games, and Liverrpool’s, by and large, have made for pretty horrifying reads. But even these data can be misconstrued, without seeing first, how our total goals and goals allowed matched up with the model, and second, how our rivals numbers compare.

After crunching the numbers, my full spreadsheet ended up looking like this.

Team G-xG GA-xGA GD-xGD Manchester City 6 -1.2 7.2 Manchester United 3 -6.3 9.3 Arsenal -1.7 0.9 -2.6 Spurs 0 0 0 Chelsea 5.5 -2.5 8 Liverpool -3 2.5 -5.5

Skipping ahead to the results, we can see from this that Manchester United have outperformed the xG model the most, having scored 3 more goals than the model predicts and conceded 6.3 fewer. Also interesting is that for Spurs, the model is exactly correct, though that may be because as a Spurs supporter, the creator of this xG system tweaks it to match them more exactly. Arsenal are the only other top 6 side currently underperforming the model, having scored 1.7 fewer goals, and conceded 0.9 more. Unsurprisingly, Liverpool have underperformed the model the most, having scored three fewer goals than the model predicts and conceded 2.5 more.

So what does this mean? Well, without a larger data set, an accompanying analysis of longer term trends, and a fuller understanding of how much player quality allows teams to beat the system, it’s tough to see longer term trends. What it does show is how unlucky we’ve been in the short term, being only one of two top 6 teams underperforming predicted figures and doing so twice as badly as Arsenal.

But based on last season, when we outperformed our xG by 15 goals, I expect we’ll at least see better finishing going forward.

Submitted October 29, 2017 at 03:35PM by Jellitin via reddit http://ift.tt/2gKVVyp

#IFTTT #reddit #liverpoolfc #liverpool fc #lfc #ynwa

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coolcolorfulthingstudent-blog · 6 years ago

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footballbettingtipstk-blog · 6 years ago

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Top football bets for today

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ghostlyfestivalbouquetblr-blog · 6 years ago

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Top football bets for today

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flauntpage · 6 years ago

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Premier League Picks Week 22

The NFL officially changes Cody Parkey's missed field goal to a blocked kick by Treyvon Hester

(via @Eagles)pic.twitter.com/IdMCp65W5B

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 7, 2019

Parkey’s kick goes through and my prediction is basically spot on — Eagles loss, cover, you’re welcome. I’ve never been happier to be wrong…but it doesn’t get much stranger than that.

John Stones' goal-line clearance denied Liverpool the chance to maintain their undefeated record in the Premier League.

And on further inspection, the ball was inches from crossing the line!

MORE: https://t.co/3FdYqECbBa pic.twitter.com/LQLfcEyJkR

— FOX Sports Football (@FOXFOOTBALL) January 3, 2019

The only solace is just that: The analysis is sound, and the results are due to come good. Here come your Week 22 winners:

0⃣ to

in 11 seconds!#COYS pic.twitter.com/sweY6tVwdU

— Tottenham Hotspur (@SpursOfficial) January 11, 2019

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR v. MANCHESTER UNITED

MANCHESTER CITY v. WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS

After a quiet Sunday without football, Albion admin logs on to Twitter this morning to check yesterday's @ManCity score.#BAFC pic.twitter.com/pB2JlHdOv2

— Burton Albion FC (@burtonalbionfc) January 7, 2019

Little could anyone know that 7-0 was a scoreline Burton Albion would envy by the end of the first leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final:

Manchester City will take a 9-0 lead into the second leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final against Burton Albion.

Report: https://t.co/YgQmjlBm3K pic.twitter.com/kOc6c5JU8u

— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) January 9, 2019

"I thought it was cruel. Humiliating"

Andy Hinchcliffe felt sorry for Burton Albion this evening.

Report: https://t.co/utLms3CoGk pic.twitter.com/OC9ptGGFDM

— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) January 9, 2019

CARDIFF CITY v. HUDDERSFIELD TOWN

@Sol14Bamba: "We talk to away players after games and they say that coming here is always intimidating…"

More from Saturday's @TheBluebirdProg feature

https://t.co/I2UQ6il1eQ#CARHUD #CityAsOne

— Cardiff City FC (@CardiffCityFC) January 11, 2019

Good luck this weekend.

Week 21 results:

Manchester United to win at Newcastle United at 6/10: WIN

Wolverhampton Wanderers to beat Crystal Palace at evens: LOSS

Liverpool to win or draw at Manchester City at 8/11: LOSS

WEEK 22 TOTAL: -$140

SEASON TO DATE: -$1237

The post Premier League Picks Week 22 appeared first on Crossing Broad.

Premier League Picks Week 22 published first on https://footballhighlightseurope.tumblr.com/

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