#or how to fix the other stuff cause rigging is a whole another field

[yellow-yarrow]

idk anything about art but from what i can gather do you just have to fight against the program every step of the way? like that's just how 3d modeling functions?

yeah lol

(i mean unless you really know how it works and have experience working in it and you are not a beginner like me)

[theoneandonlyocelot]

CA: CW - or, Why I Don’t Trust Tony Stark

Okay, so I’ve read a lot of MCU and CACW stuff, and I noticed a couple of things that nobody else has addressed, so here goes:

I’ll say right up front, I LOVED Iron Man 1, okay? Like, I STILL think it’s one of THE BEST superhero movies ever made. The fact that they took what could have been a very fluff  character, and took the time to take him back to square one, hold him responsible, make his transformation MEAN SOMETHING to him, I was, and still AM, VERY VERY IMPRESSED. RDJ’s performance on top of that just made that character MATTER, when by all accounts he’s not much in the comic books. When he tells Pepper he needs her help because “You’re all I have,” and a few minutes later in the conversation she reminds him to be careful because “You’re all I have too, you know,” that kills me. Be still my heart!!

BUT.

And this is a big, painful “but.”

Throughout the first movie, Tony has two or three basic character flaws that he DOES NOT address:

1) He is reckless and impulsive and DOES NOT THINK THINGS THROUGH. He is also breathtakingly egotistical. Driving 90+ mph through twisty canyon roads in a sports car when he could end up over a cliff? Not a thought. I cringed in the theater, knowing how easily that could have ended in disaster. I don’t care how good a driver you are, you are not immune to unforeseen road conditions. When he discovers, on the battle field, that he’s being shot at by his own weapons, is kidnapped, and eventually decides to make the Iron Man Prototype, he LITERALLY does not stop to think that MAYBE, JUST MAYBE, the bad guys are going to want this piece of tech, too? Like, he LITERALLY makes zero plans to make sure that his designs for the suit won’t end up in the wrong hands?? And I completely CANNOT believe that he couldn’t rig up a fail-safe mechanism to destroy everything should they have been discovered or their escape plan had failed.

And the company dealing under the table? It never seems to have occurred to him “Hmm, maybe I should go home, lay low, and do some quiet snooping UNTIL I FIND OUT WHO IS RESPONSIBLE?” No. He goes home, IMMEDIATELY ANNOUNCES TO THE WORLD THAT HE’S HALTING ALL WEAPONS PRODUCTION, and tells Obadiah what he knows. Not only does he not seem to realize that this level of double-dealing probably goes VERY, VERY HIGH up in his organization, he never takes steps to protect himself from the possible backlash. That is a level of naivete and self-absorption that would have been drilled out of most people upon being kidnapped, but one Tony clings to throughout the series.

On top of that, he never gives a thought to the people who work for him (who are now temporarily laid off until his plants can be converted). He never gives a heads-up to Rhodey, his military liason and best friend. And no matter what you might think about the military and their involvement, Stark Ind. was still under contract, and could have been sued up one side and down the other for halting production and failing to deliver, putting even more people out of work for even longer and potentially endangering soldiers. It very likely boiled down to Rhodey’s personal friendship with him that kept the military off his back for as long as it was.

And this complete failure to think things through leaves him so shockingly vulnerable that even after Oby admits “I’m the one who locked you out [of the board],” Tony never bothered to lock Oby out of his house. It leaves him so frighteningly vulnerable that he sends Pepper into the office to get evidence without giving a second thought to what Oby might do to her - and with no plan at all to keep her safe.

And this carries over into IM2, when he sees that other scientist’s name on the blueprints and doesn’t stop to think that maybe this other guy deserves some credit? Like, maybe he has family or something that Tony at least owes royalties to, because hey, THIS GUY HELPED INVENT THE THING TOO??

It carries even further in IM3, when he gives Mandarin his home address and dares him to come get him. And then he seems so baffled when his home is attacked. Like??? What did you think would happen, Tony?? This guy showed you he was a major badass, and you called his bluff cuz... why?? You thought you just had to look tough at the cameras and he would back down? (MCU’s treatment of Mandarin later in the story is another rant for another time.) And you did it when Pepper was home too. Cuz you forgot the lessons of IM1 and you didn’t think far enough ahead to ask yourself what you would do to protect her if he DID attack.

Like, I get why Pepper was pissed at you, man.

2) Tony wallows in guilt and self-pity. Like, bathes in it. Takes long, hot soaks in it like it’s a friggin’ therapeutic spa.

He was in captivity for how long? clutching the car battery to his chest and feeling sorry for himself before Yensin convinced him to fight back. It was three months total before he escaped - I get that he needed time to build the suit, and time to recover from the injuries he sustained in the attack. I give him a full six weeks, the standard recovery time for open heart surgery and a full half of the time he was gone. But the movie makes it pretty damn clear he didn’t even THINK of fighting back until WELL AFTER he was healed physically. Yensin’s pep-talk amounted to “You’re Tony Freakin’ Stark! At this point you’re only in captivity cuz you want to be, so get off your ass and DO SOMETHING!!”

And this carries over into the rest of the movie, leading partly to his instant halt in weapons production (see above), and to his whole broody-in-the-basement montages in both the first and second halves. It’s why he abandons Pepper at the party (thanks, reporter with photos!), why he takes on the Ten Rings by himself, and why, again, he didn’t see Oby coming.

It carries over into IM2, when he spends the entire, what, first third-to-half of the movie wallowing in self-pity because the arc reactor is poisoning him and it doesn’t occur to him that Nick Fury of friggin’ SHIELD might know somebody or something that could help? (That’s some next-level self-absorption right there, my friends, to believe that you are so damn smart that NOBODY could possibly know ANYTHING more than you.) And we know most of his “creative block” was self-pity, because the moment Coulson takes his toys, alcohol, and friends away, grounds him, and forces him to go looking at his stuff, and his father’s old SHIELD stuff, logically, he finds the solution rather quickly.

But he doesn’t learn the lesson in this movie either, apparently, because there he goes again in IM3, wallowing in self-pity again. Pepper’s mad at him at the start of the movie because he tries to sidle out of responsibility for stuff, and rather than own up to it, he pouts and buys her a giant teddy bear (Seriously, Tony? How old is she, four?). And when she calls him on it again, he keeps wallowing. He wallows through his fights with Mandarin and the other dude. And when he goes on the run, hiding out in the kid’s garage, he spends most of that time wallowing in self-pity as well. I really don’t think it would’ve have taken him that long to fix the suit and find Pepper, if he hadn’t been enjoying feeling sorry for himself. I give this movie credit, though: like IM2, it gave him a villain who mirrored his self-pity - both Whiplash and whats-his-name felt that Tony owed them something (in Whiplash’s case, rightly so; in the other guy’s it was pure self-pity and bruised ego, same as Tony’s).

And this is why I can’t get behind him in CA:CW:

Viola Davis’ character has ALWAYS felt sketchy to me. She showed up at Tony’s speech, giving him a story about her son who died in Sokovia (or Africa, I forget which) helping refugees when he was killed by a falling piece of debris during an Avengers fight. But she lets it slip that she works for a US Senator. That, right there, was a huge red flag for me. WHAT SENATOR? That’s the first question Tony should have asked. Why? Because we know there are Senators who’d do anything to bring him, and the Avengers, down.

Tony doesn’t ask that question, though. Why? Because he doesn’t think that through. And he doesn’t think it through because he’s too busy wallowing in self-pity that he might - MIGHT - have caused that kid’s death.

Look, I GET IT. I GET that him and the rest of the Avengers should be more careful. I GET that Tony has been through a lot - he has trauma, PTSD, etc, etc.

But look at it this way: Tony has more resources available to him THAN ANYONE ELSE ON THE TEAM - to get therapy for his PTSD, to get surgery on his chest (which he FINALLY got in the end of IM3). But I think it’s telling that the traumatic situation he recreated during his speech, showing off his holo-tech, wasn’t any of that. He didn’t show being attacked in Afghanistan and held prisoner. He didn’t show the Battle of New York. He didn’t show catching the nuke and going through the portal. He didn’t show his battles with Whiplash, when Mandarin destroyed his house, or when he fought Guy Pierce on the ship.

He showed his last argument with his parents.

Let that sink in. 

The implication at the end of IM3 is that he dealt with his physical trauma by getting the shrapnel, and the arc reactor, removed from his chest. The post-credits scene, where he’s talking to Bruce, implies that he’s willing to get treatment for his PTSD. There’s NO REASON to believe in later movies that he HASN’T DEALT WITH HIS PTSD, or is at least getting therapy for it on an ongoing basis.

Let that sink in, please.

It means he’s not reacting to everything in CA:CW because of battle fatigue.

I GET that he looked up to his dad, he loved his mom, he felt guilty cuz their last conversation was a fight. This is all very normal, guilt-inducing stuff.

But tech he was marketing for recovering soldiers did not show a military fight.

And to equate the two is, once again, some next-level self-absorption.

It also means he carries blithely on in his lack of tactical thinking and self-pity for the whole rest of the movie BECAUSE HE CHOOSES TO.

Sokovia Accords? He is wallowing so deeply in self-pity that he MIGHT have caused V. Davis’ son’s death that he never asks if she’s telling the truth. He never asks if he’s being manipulated. He never asks if the Avengers are being manipulated. He never asks if there’s another way to handle the chain-of-command, the who’s responsible and holding-them-accountable questions.

These are all questions that Steve DOES ASK.

Steve who, DESPITE HAVING GONE THROUGH JUST AS MUCH, IF NOT MORE, personal trauma, JUST AS MUCH, IF NOT MORE BATTLE TRAUMA, who has JUST AS MUCH, IF NOT MORE PTSD, WITH FAR FEWER RESOURCES TO COMBAT IT, DOES STOP TO ASK WHY THIS IS HAPPENING SO FAST.

You’re tellin’ me Wanda genuinely had to be under house arrest “for everybody’s safekeeping” rather than going upstate to the Avenger’s compound and practicing with live ammo and explosives until she could safely contain an explosive AND keep it away from humans? You’re tellin’ me Tony couldn’t rig up a skeet-shooter to fire at her, and a safe-room where she could practice without hurting anybody? I don’t believe it. If he’d stopped wallowing for two minutes, it probably would have occurred to him, too.

But, unfortunately for the entire team, Tony continues to wallow for the rest of the movie - he wallows in grief over his parents, guilt over V. Davis’ son (tho he never seemed to show that level of care over Wanda’s and Pietro’s parents), fails to question whether or not Bucky MIGHT be innocent (what happened to “innocent until proven guilty”? guess that doesn’t count if you’ve been brainwashed by Hydra, so maybe Nat should have seen that coming too?), wallows in his anger at Bucky during the finale (iirc, he doesn’t get any proof of, or make any connection between, Bucky and his parent’s deaths until deep into the finale), and then, during the finale fight with Steve, wallows in self-pity that Steve turned on him, like Tony’s somehow not responsible for anything.

Like, I GET that you LIKE the guy. But give him the consequences of his choices. TONY CHOSE, at every possible moment, to wallow in self-pity, to take on blind faith what he should have questioned, to doubt where he should’ve trusted, and failed to consider the consequences of his actions.

He completely fails at all three, and has throughout most of the MCU.

I find it horribly, horribly telling, to compare Tony with T’Challa, whose father was also freshly murdered in the last three days and before his very eyes. Both men raised in privilege, both men crazy smart, both men react, at first, with gut-level rage. But T’Challa eventually has the presence of mind to step back and ask himself “Is my rage justified? Is my rage directed at the right target?” And when the answer is “No,” he backs off. Tony never reaches that level of awareness. He is hit, he hits back, without thought. Even when Cap’s got him on the ground beating the crap out of him, Tony never stops to ask “Did I maybe contribute to any of this? Is my rage justified? Is Cap’s?” Even when he lashes out at Cap - ”He’s my friend.” “So was I.” - it’s as if, for Tony, it’s all about himself, as if there’s no possible room for two victims, or even three (counting Steve).

Look, I LIKE the guy. The way RDJ plays him he’s charming, and brilliant, and I think most of the time he’s at least trying to keep his heart in the right place. RDJ’s portrayal is, quite frankly, the only thing keeping me from hating Tony right now. But I don’t TRUST Tony farther than I can spit because HE IS so easy to manipulate.

And with the brain, and weapons, at his disposal, that is truly terrifying.

[ichika27]

TWEWY 09

I did not find a good spoiler-free screenshot for the first image so we got this one where they see the aftermath of an awful scene.

Episode 9 already. How time flies! Alright, spoiler warning for the game as always.

Okaaaay... they’re starting with this? They decided that the beginning of the episode is the backstory of Beat and Rhyme? I’m surprised cause wow... what a way to start!

Beat tells Neku how he and Rhyme got to the UG - they were arguing and Beat wasn’t listening to Rhyme who has been trying to get him to stay. Then in the middle of it, an out of control car came and was about to hit Rhyme. Beat tried to save her but he failed and they both got hit. He also reveals to Neku that they’re siblings.

They left out some details though: that Beat got into an argument with their parents and he walked out on them as usual (saying it happens a lot and the reason why which would’ve added a bit more characterization for Beat). Rhyme followed him and then the car came. He tried to save her but couldn’t. They also left out the line where Beat says “But I couldn’t stop a car.” which, to me, feels like it should’ve been added cause that is really sad to hear from a kid. He tried, man. He tried.

They also showed Beat and Rhyme’s “first” meeting in the UG. This was immediately after the death flashback so the part of the convo where Beat says he doesn’t know if Rhyme hates him for what happened because she doesn’t remember him. There was also no mention of him realizing that maybe memories of him were her entry fee and that he fears that even if he successfully brought her back (if he became composer), her memories of him would still be gone.

Beat calls himself an idiot because of what had happened to them. Neku gives Beat some encouraging words along the lines of “Yeah, you’re definitely an idiot if you joined a game with only one other player left. But you still made a pact with me and not many would’ve done that.”

The duo promises they’d win the game so they could get back the ones they lost - Rhyme and Shiki.

The two of them had to hide though cause they’re being hunted by every reaper around. It would hinder them in their search for Konishi.

Imagine if the game version had this part as a gameplay where you have to sneak around. I’d have found that nerve-wracking lol.

They soon notice something strange: they can’t scan people from the RG anymore. Everyone’s literally “No thoughts, head empty.” (hey, they took away the “memes” from the story so I’m putting some here lol) and they’re also wearing the red skull pins. Neku and Beat thinks there’s a connection.

Beat notices that the red skull pins look like the player pins so they must’ve been made by the same person. They also know the red skull pins were made by CAT which means the player pin must be, too.

Neku is worried and is starting to have some doubts. Joshua told him 2 things in Week 2: the composer created the player pins and that CAT is Mr. Hanekoma. The thought of Mr. Hanekoma (someone he looks up to) being the same person as the Composer (who is the one who organized this whole game) is distressing to Neku so he suggested they focus on the mission first.

Kariya and Uzuki are eating together at a fast food place again (they really took away our ramen, huh?) and are talking about the mission Konishi gave Uzuki. She has some qualms but she’s still gonna do her job and get that promotion.

So the two face off against Neku and Beat with Rhyme at stake.

Rhyme isn’t in her pin from here unlike in the game which I questioned at first but later I think it was a good idea (I’ll talk about this again later). The challenge is to outright fight the reaper duo which is different from the game where they instead had to play Reaper Sport 4 which is tag.

Sorry for the very blurry photo. This is the best I could do.

Neku and Beat defeat the reaper duo with this attack that even the reapers think is unusual. (This is the 3rd phase of their fusion, if I remember correctly. So is Neku riding a board there or...?)

As promised, the reapers give back Rhyme... not! The fake Rhyme disintegrates in Beat’s hands which is awful. Unlike the game where Rhyme is in her pin form and Beat just tells them the pin is fake, here, Rhyme is in her noise form so the scene feels a lot worse. She’s “alive” and not just a pin so when she disappears like this (and on her brother’s arm no less), it has more impact.

I might have issues with the anime’s pacing but if there’s one thing they decided to do right is that the dramatic scenes look more intense.

Kariya realizes that Konishi duped them. Uzuki is pissed that the promotion if a fake cause she really wanted it and was willing to work for it. She also mentions that she knew Kariya declined promotion. Kariya explains that he likes working in the field to watch the people and Shibuya cause he really likes this place. Also he enjoys hanging out with Uzuki which he can’t do if he is given a different job. This shuts up Uzuki who is kinda surprised by what she heard.

They took out, if I remember correctly, Uzuki saying she wanted to help change things for the reapers cause she think everyone should be enjoying their work. The two also has this talk within Neku and Beat’s earshot who are kinda getting annoyed with what was happening.

As an apology for the trouble, Kariya gives them another keypin. He says “Sorry.”, too but the scene felt different from the game. Th game version sounded... nicer? I think it’s cause they didn’t seem as agitated and the way Kariya says it felt like he really didn’t like how they unknowingly tricked Neku and Beat. Uzuki apologizes in the game, too but not in the anime.

Beat still gives them the warning about Konishi though (even calling them senpai while saying it haha). Personally, I just think the scene felt friendlier in the game but that’s just me.

The red skull pins are taking effect now incapacitating both Kariya and Uzuki as Konishi appears to observe and figure out what’s going on. The duo gets up later with red eyes.

I wonder if they’re gonna make them say the quote. You know: “To right the countless wrongs of our days...” and all that (I copypasted that from a wiki cause I forgot but I had to reference it here).

Mr. Hanekoma is fixing up Minamimoto’s taboo sigil. Guess who comes out of this?

It’s starting everyone!

---

I noticed they never explained in this episode or the last why Neku was the only player left for Week 3. No mention of the other players becoming Neku’s new entry fees. I dunno what’s more suspicious that would get people to question if this was a rigged game: giving that bs explanation or giving no explanation at all. Or maybe they’d mention it when they finally face Kitaniji. You know, to shock and guilt trip Neku again cause the anime enjoys making things hit worse sometimes.

I wonder if they’re gonna have Neku and Beat visit Wildkat next episode?

Eri shows up again this episode by the way. She was with a crowd trying to get their hands on the red skull pins and she even gets a few lines. I’m glad she shows up here (and Beat sees her and is given an explanation of what Shiki’s entry fee was).

I know many are excited to see Taboo Minamimoto. The guy is one of the popular reapers from the series and I realize by how much when I see he’s got the same kind of merch as the main characters do. Oh and he also becomes playable in the long-awaited sequel game. I hope the anime-onlys who end up liking him, too enjoys seeing him again.

Are they gonna end Week 3 next episode or will there be another one? Cause they gave Week 2 four episodes instead of just three like Week 1 and they’re also gonna have to add stuff for the” A New Day” segment to connect this with the sequel game. There’s not enough episodes in this show.

I’m excited for the 4 people fusion at the end though. I wonder how they’d pull it off with the fusion pin not shown at all in the anime.

I’m excited for next week’s episode. I wonder how they’d handle the ending to the story? It’s sad it won’t end on a good note since if they adapt “A New Day” (which they have to for the sequel), well, you know how it’ll go.

I’m also very excited to see Joshua again. I hope he enjoyed his stay at the other world (if it still has tin pin and ramen then he’s probably good).

Well, til next week! Thanks for reading.

[thisdaynews]

Why ‘Pocahontas’ Could Still Be Elizabeth Warren’s Biggest Vulnerability

New Post has been published on https://thebiafrastar.com/why-pocahontas-could-still-be-elizabeth-warrens-biggest-vulnerability/

Why ‘Pocahontas’ Could Still Be Elizabeth Warren’s Biggest Vulnerability

Elizabeth Warren came to last week’s Native American presidential forum in Sioux City, Iowa, with, as you might expect, a plan. And she executed it perfectly.

First, the Massachusetts senator expressed sorrow for the “harm I caused,” referencing her attempt to prove he had Native American ancestry through a DNA test. Then she pivoted to her literal plan, her sweeping and detailed set of ideas to expand tribal nation sovereignty and invest in social programs benefiting Native American communities. The long list of proposals was repeatedly praised by the forum’s attendees, several of whom excitedly predicted that they were speaking to the next president of the United States.

Story Continued Below

While Warren’s campaign staff might have breathed easier coming out of the forum, her Republican antagonists have made it clear they have no intention of forgetting the episode. Shortly before Warren’s appearance at the forum, the Republican National Committee released an opposition research memo titled, “1/1024th Native American, 100% Liar,” which quoted its deputy chief of staff Mike Reed as saying, Warren “lied about being [Native American] to gain minority status at a time when Ivy League law schools were desperate to add diversity to their ranks.” A few days earlier, President Donald Trump, after lamenting that “Pocahontas is rising” in the polls, assured his supporters at a New Hampshire rally that he still has the ability to derail her: “I did the Pocahontas thing. I hit her really hard, and it looked like she was down and out. But that was too long ago. I should’ve waited. But don’t worry, we will revive it.”

Has Warren effectively addressed the controversy? In conversations I had with Democratic and Republican political strategists, unaffiliated with any presidential campaign, there was no bipartisan consensus. The Democrats believed Warren’s rise in the polls is evidence she has weathered the storm. The Republicans argued Warren remains vulnerable to charges of dishonest opportunism.

They’re both right. Warren is enjoying a comeback because she has convinced many skittish progressives that she won’t let Trump disrupt her relentless focus on policy solutions. And she has convinced many Native American leaders that her policy proposals for indigenous communities are more important than what she has said in the past about her ancestry.

But because Warren’s comeback has relied on restoring her standing on the left, she has not done anything to address concerns potentially percolating among swing voters. A detailed white paper on Native American policy has no bearing on whether a moderate white suburbanite believes Warren is of good character. And since Warren has apologized for her past claims, she remains open to the charge she was dishonest when, during her academic career, she relied on nothing more than family lore to identify herself as Native American.

That means if she becomes the Democratic nominee for president, Warren would still face a “Pocahontas” problem, one that threatens the core of her candidacy.

“If she’s the nominee and says, ‘Trump’s dishonest,’ that’s just the immediate counter: You’re dishonest about the most fundamental thing, who you were and how you got to your positions,” said Republican strategist Chuck Warren of the political consulting firm September Group. He is ofno relation to the candidate.

Dan Hazelwood, another Republican consultant and owner of Targeted Creative Communications, argued her apologies have missed the mark: “She’s never given the answer to the core of the Trump charge, which is: She cheated. She cheated for personal gain. She hasn’t answered that part of the attack.”

An exhaustiveBoston Globeinvestigation in September 2018 concluded Elizabeth Warren’s “claim to Native American ethnicity was never considered by the Harvard Law faculty, which voted resoundingly to hire her, or by those who hired her to four prior positions at other law schools.” However, once she was hired, Harvard used her self-identification to help bolster its diversity statistics and tamp down criticism of its hiring practices. TheGlobereported, “Warren doesn’t have a direct answer for whether her claims … might have harmed the efforts of others to press for more diversity at the overwhelmingly white institution.”

However, these Republicans don’t believe Trump’s preferred rhetorical grenade—the “Pocahontas” slur—poses the biggest threat to Warren. “I don’t think the Pocahontas thing sticks,” Chuck Warren said. “It’s a funny line to people at the rallies, [but] it doesn’t talk much about her character. It almost makes the point trivial.”

What would be devastating to Elizabeth Warren is if Trump were able to connect the underlying concerns about her personal integrity to the integrity of her agenda. She styles herself as a warrior for the people, fighting to fix a system “rigged” against them by elites. But if Trump can convince swing voters that Warren, as a member of the academic elite, rigged a system to benefit herself, he could turn what is now Warren’s main strength into a fatal weakness.

Key to making that connection is reducing her detailed plans to cheap pandering. “Everybody loves to call her a policy wonk, but everything she is presenting is ‘buy me a vote,’” Chuck Warren said. “She is willing to say, or put on any hat, to get ahead.” Hazelwood envisions Elizabeth Warren’s platform being characterized as “putting the government in charge of everything and giving away stuff for free. … And oh, by the way, the stuff that’s going to be given away is going to be given away by cheaters.”

Warren can insist that she never won a job because of how she described her ethnicity. But that hasn’t stopped Trump from attacking her, and Democrats shouldn’t assume the president’s own record of dishonesty will protect her either. “If you give Trump a tool to equalize the playing field, which is what this does,” Hazelwood said, “he will do exactly what he did to Hillary Clinton.”

***

In several presidential elections, Democrats have seen Republican attack dogs disfigure their nominees beyond recognition by turning their strengths into weaknesses.

In 2016, Republicans turned Hillary Clinton’s tenure as secretary of State, essential to her case that she was the most qualified for the job,into a deluge of conspiracy theories centered on her private email server. In 2004, Democratic voters thought John Kerry’s war record would protect him from challenges to his patriotism, only to have his war record baselessly but effectively maligned by the “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.” In 2000, Al Gore had a reputation as a Boy Scout, until George W. Bush’s campaign used some of his minor flubs and sloppy phrasings to brand him as a “serial exaggerator.”

But when I talked to Democratic operatives who were part of some of these campaigns, and know all too well the potential dangers that lie ahead of any Democratic nominee, they praised Warren for how she, after her DNA test misstep, has seized control of her own narrative with her seemingly unlimited appetite for policy plans.

“Warren has successfully defined herself as a candidate, instead of letting others define her,” said Peter Daou, a veteran of the Kerry campaign and the 2008 Clinton campaign. Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist and former spokesman for Clinton’s 2016 effort, concurred, noting Democrats have “struggled” during the Trump era to “drive our own message and not be entirely tethered to his.”

“She’s shown an ability to do that, and that allows you to navigate his nonsense but also drive your own point,” he said.

The Democratic operatives are understandably impressed with Warren’s rise. She is theonly2020 presidential candidate to have a rise. In the Real Clear Politics poll average, no other candidate has increased his or her share of the vote more than 0.5 percentage points since May 1. Warren’s support has nearly doubled,from 8.4 percent to 15.4 percent.Since the first of the year, when Warren began the exploratory phase of her campaign at 4.3 percent, Warren’s support has nearly quadrupled.

But Warren started 2019 scraping bottom in the polls, giving her more room to rise,becauseof the Native American controversy. In early 2018, Warren was scoring in the low double-digits in Democratic primary polling. But her numbers began to sag by the fall, and the obvious cause was Trump’s repeated “Pocahontas” jabs—most prominently, his July “offer” of $1 million to her favorite charity if she proved her Native American ancestry with a DNA test.

When Warren took him up on it in October, she made her problem worse. She had let Trump dictate the terms of their engagement. Her test results—she had Native American ancestry 6 to 10 generations in the past—did little to defuse the situation. She angered the Cherokee Nation, which rejects the whole concept of DNA to determine tribal heritage. Then in February, when theWashington Postuncovered that Warren self-identified as American Indian on her 1986 State Bar of Texas registration card, she shifted from proudly defending her family lore to sheepishly apologizing for “furthering confusion on tribal sovereignty and tribal citizenship.” Her prospects looked bleak.

Her comeback began once she stopped talking about her ancestry and started talking about her plans. Progressive commentators, livid at mainstream media obsession with the Native American saga, as well as with speculation about her “likability,” pushed back by celebrating the substance and reach of her policy proposals.The Nationsplashed her on a March cover declaring, “Elizabeth Warren isn’t scared of Trump—or her own party.” In April, the feminist siteJezebelsummed up her candidacy with the headline, “Elizabeth Warren Has a Plan.” By May, it wasTimemagazine that had Warren on the cover with her common refrain, “I Have a Plan for That.”

On top of the pile of plans, many voters began to recognize Warren was much better on the stump than some had presumed, leading them to, well, like her. Before the Democratic debate in June, she was back in double-digits. The ancestry controversy went unmentioned in both summer debates. Warren otherwise avoided any serious attacks, and her numbers kept inching up.

But her rise has been propelled largely by the left flank of the Democratic Party. In one of her better poll showings, the August Quinnipiac University poll that placed her in second nationally with 21 percent, she won among “very liberal” voters with 40 percent but was well behind Joe Biden among moderate and conservative voters with 11 percent. It’s one thing to make uberprogressives forget about “Pocahontas” with uberprogressive plans, but it’s another to do the same with moderate swing voters.

***

When I asked Democratic operativeswhether Warren needs to do something different in order to connect with swing voters and inoculate herself against general election attempts to dredge up the ancestry controversy, they said no. They see in her existing campaign style and persona the ingredients for a favorable matchup against Trump.

Tracy Sefl, who handled Kerry’s rapid response operation for the Democratic National Committee and also advised the 2008 Clinton effort, sees a “powerful contrast” between Trump “impulsively shouting out these things and gleefully hurling slurs” from “a stage” and Warren’s “far more engaging and dignified” approach in which she is “literally among voters,” spending “hours worth of [time in] photo lines.” Sefl also praised Warren’s web strategy, creating a webpage—elizabethwarren.com/pocahontas—that tells the story of the real Pocahontas’ abuse and early death to raise awareness of the high rate of violence against Native American women today, mostly perpetrated by nonnatives.

Ferguson didn’t buy the Republican argument that Trump would be able to challenge Warren’s honesty. “In 2016, he was seen as a straight talker,” Ferguson said. “But in three years as president, he’s gone from straight talker to straight bullshit artist.” Therefore, “it’s hard to see Donald Trump winning a debate with anyone about honesty and integrity.”

These Democratic operatives are hardly naive about the potential power of Republican attacks. “The Republicans are excellent and skilled at taking [what] they can find in their opponents,” Daou said, “and hammer and hammer and hammer away at it, until it becomes a mainstream news story.”

Yet he graded Warren as having “passed the test with flying colors—the test of withstanding right-wing attacks.” Ferguson further argued that the Native American controversy isn’t like the Clinton email server episode. “One of the challenges of 2016 was the drip-drip-drip of the email news [and] the investigation news,” Ferguson said. “This isn’t drip-drip-drip. This is Trump beating a dead horse.”

But Hazelwood contends the old tricks can still work to drive news. “We’re all kidding ourselves if you [think Trump] can’t find people who are going to stand up and say, ‘I was wronged in this process’ or ‘I’m a Native American and I think this is still inappropriate, and she never actually properly accounted for her misdeeds,” Hazelwood said.

Most Native Americans might be disinclined to continue criticizing Warren. Mark Trahant, the editor of Indian Country Today and the moderator of this month’s Native American presidential forum, relayed to me via email that the forum’s attendees “gave her more than a warm reception.”

“She had one of four standing ovations,” he wrote, and attendees were “far more interested in the candidate’s policy proposals” than the ancestry controversy. But, he also noted, “There are a number of people that will consider Elizabeth Warren’s actions and the DNA test egregious and will never come around.”

In fact, four days after the forum, Rebecca Nagle, a Cherokee Nation member and the host of the “This Land” podcast produced by the progressive Crooked Media, published a devastating essay in HuffPost. Nagle argued Warren’s apology was insufficient because her 19th-century and early 20th-century ancestors were white people who occupied Cherokee land with military force and through broken treaties. “Warren’s ancestors replaced the truth of their complicity in Cherokee dispossession with a tale of being Cherokee,” Nagle wrote. In her view, Warren can only make things right by stating she “does not have a Cherokee ancestor and that she was wrong to claim one.”

Nagle has no interest in helping Trump. She responded to Warren supporters on Twitter writing, “Warren isn’t running against Trump, she’s running against” the Democratic field. She added: “It’s silly to think not talking about this issue will make it go away. Ppl who want Warren to be prez should press her to resolve this issue now.” But even if Nagle and most Native Americans wouldn’t publicly side with Trump in a general election against Warren, Hazelwood warns Democrats to not pretend that you can’t find those people, because a presidential campaign can.”

Whether Warren has the skills to overcome the expected attacks can only be proved in real time, and perhaps Democrats should be thankful that, as Sefl observes, Trump is so impulsive. If Warren continues to rise in the polls and becomes the front-runner, Trump won’t be able resist early engagement. In preparation for that likely confrontation, Warren might want to consider how the last successful Democratic nominee survived a major controversy during a primary.

Barack Obama, in March 2008, had to answer for anti-American sermons delivered by his pastor Jeremiah Wright. Obama’s response, the famous “A More Perfect Union” address, was not solely aimed at Democratic primary voters. He delivered a broader discussion of race relations designed to unify all Americans by encouraging a deeper understanding of coarse sentiments harbored by blacks and whites. This not only helped Obama connect with swing voters for the general election, it also helped soothe nervous Democrats who wanted to know if he could handle whatever Republicans threw at him. Warren, in contrast, has yet to tailor a message for swing voters, betting that the ambitious populism that progressives love will also resonate with voters outside of the Democratic primary electorate.

The Democratic operatives I spoke with may well be correct that Warren can survive any Republican-manufactured storms by simply being Warren—strong, substantive and on message. That presumes the DNA debacle was an anomalous case of Warren failing to be Warren. Yet it’s risky to assume the Republican operatives are wrong. If her reputation among swing voters gets poisoned by accusations of dishonesty, she will find that extremely hard to remedy, and as before, might respond to pressure by making matters worse.

To avoid that pitfall, she should invest energy now in defining herself as “honest.” Without direct mention of the past controversy, she could collect testimonials from her professional past vouching for her integrity and promote them in ads and on the trail. That way, when attacks on her integrity are launched in full force, she will have already fortified her defenses—and in a way that is not reliant on political ideology.

“It is risky business to look backwards for the answers to what’s ahead,” Sefl told me, cautioning against the assumption that what worked for Republicans in the past was destined to work again. It’s true that Warren is a different candidate than Clinton or Kerry. And Trump’s weakened political standing as an embattled incumbent might mean he can’t easily run on his playbook from 2016. No two campaigns are the same.

But it’s a simple fact that the Native American controversy did once damage Warren’s presidential aspirations and that her recovery has yet to reach most moderate voters. If she has a plan for reaching them before Trump does, we haven’t seen it yet.

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