#one guy went from level 41 to 47 in the span of a year and i've been on 41 for like... almost as long

[spectralarchers]

"I'm not a gamer!"

*proceeds to discuss best Pokémon Go strategies and help apps and which way to best optimize your gameplay with several friends made on a specialized Pokémon Go remote raid Discord channel*

*also owns a Got'cha Evolve autocatch watch AND an auto-walker*

[ask-white-fatalis]

every odd number for the OC questions

HOO BOY.

1. What’s their full name? Why was that chosen? Does it mean anything?Shiro’s full name is Shironus AkumaWraths full name is Wrathanula AkumaKaze’s name is simply Kaze AkumaQuins (my hunter OC’s) name is Quintor Zenerith 

3. Did they have a good childhood? What are fond memories they have of it? What’s a bad memory?Shiros childhood was horrid. for the first 100 years, wrath made his life a living hell in order to toughen him up, only to abandon him by exiling Shiro from his ancestral homeland for Shiro’s pacifistic beliefs.Wrath didn’t start as an asshole. he was a fairly average dragon and even at one point interacted with human beings. however, a turn of betrayal with the humans turn wrath cold and unfeeling.Kaze so far has had a good childhood, then again he is only 2 years old.Quin’s childhood was one of poverty and homelessness, as his parents were killed by a rogue Gore Magala when he was still very young.

5. Do they have any siblings? What’s their names? What is their relationship with them? Has their relationship changed since they were kids to adults? Shiro Has a brother and a sister. His brother, Kuro, Is a black fatalis and is his fathers favorite, often belittling Shiro about how little their father cares about him. Kuro has grown arrogant and crass, often womanizing with many female fatalis’s. Shiros sister is a creature even wrath fears because of how far he pushed her violent nature. given she is a crimson fatalis, the most violent of the 3 species, wrath had her trapped within an abandoned castle when she started to kill her own kind for sport. Kaze, Wrath, and Quin are only Child’s. 

7. Did they have lots of friends as a child? Did they keep any of their childhood friends into adulthood? ((most of my Main OC’s do not have many childhood friends, whether being unpopular, an outcast or generally displeasing in general (wrath…). however, I’m glad to say both quin and shiro are making friends in their adult life.))

9. Do animals like them? Do they get on well with animals? Shiro, although a predator by nature, does his best to respect all living creatures, even befriending some that most fatalis’s would just see as a meal.Wrath has a stern belief that fatalis kind are gods among mortals, that every creature is below that of his species, some of which need to be eradicated from existence.Kaze is learning shiros more pacifistic ways.Quin, even as a hunter, has many monster friends, including a zinogre he raised from a lost pup.

11. Do they have any special diet requirements? Are they a vegetarian? Vegan? Have any allergies?Shiro, Wrath and Kaze are carnivores, and require meat to feed them. however, to keep up kaze’s metal coat, he must ingest ores, like iron and dragonite.

13. What is their least favourite food?Shiro: Rhenoplos, their hide is too hard to chew and their meat is stringy and tough…Wrath: of all of earths creatures, humans by far taste the most foul. and believe me, I have experience to back that up… -growls-Kaze: STONES TASTE YUCKY, BLEEEEECH!!! >:cQuin: Grilled cheese. …. I’M NOT WEIRD, YOU ARE!

15. Are they good at cooking? Do they enjoy it? What do others think of their cooking?((Shiro,Wrath and kaze cannot cook cuz they are dragons, and even in gjinka form they eat food raw.))Quin is an average cook, and likes to surprise his wife with many dishes. his specialty is pizza.

17. Do they like to take photos? What do they like to take photos of? Selfies? What do they do with their photos?all: … what are photos?

19. What’s their least favourite genres?Shiro: I don’t care much for those horror books… they really seem unnecessarily Gorey… and i care not for what the young dragons call “Wrap music”. Wrath: Human arts are a waste of time. if i want entertainment fromthem, I’ll just burn their beloved libraries!! HAHAHA! STUPID PINK MONKEYS!Kaze: ROMANCE IS GROSS, BLEEEEECHQuin: I hate anything with adam sandler :I

21. Do they have a temper? Are they patient? What are they like when they do lose their temper?Shiro has a lot of patients, but LORD HELP YOU IF THAT FUSE GOES OUT. Wrath simply kills you if you bug him slightly so…Kaze, as a kid and thus doesn’t have an abundance of patients, and often complains if he doesn’t get his way.Quins temper is fairly level, but has none for people he thinks are rude.

23. Do they have a good memory? Short term or long term? Are they good with names? Or faces?Shiro and Wrath remember everything that has ever happened in their 100,000′s of years they’ve been alive.Kaze has very bad short term memory and has a bad attention span.Quin has a decent memory but has trouble with names.

 25. What do they find funny? Do they have a good sense of humour? Are they funny themselves?(( @monsterhunterayame asked this as well!))Shiro: what did the buffalo say to his kid when he went to school? -snorts- BISON!!! PFFFFFFHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH, OH YOU HUMANS MAKE THE FUNNIEST JOKES!!! HAHAHAHA!!!Wrath: the screams of torment of my victims the second before i rip their heads off! humans make the most pitifully funny squeaks~Kaze: POTATO! :DQuin: My friends have named me the pun deputy~

27. What makes them sad? Do they cry regularly? Do they cry openly or hide it? What are they like they are sad?If he ever gets into an bad argument with a friend, shiro will feel very depressed, and often think that he ruined the friendship he worked hard to build. he does cry, but not openly.Wrath believes showing sadness is a weakness unbefiting of a dragon, and will never show anyone the sadness in his stone cold heart.Kaze often gets sad if he squishes a bug, and will cry openly, asking shiro if he can save the poor insect.Quins sadness comes from the thought of the gore magala ripping his new life out of his grip, and the parents he lost to the beast. 

29. What do they do when they find out someone else’s fear? Do they tease them? Or get very over protective?Shiro gets very protective of his friends,doing his best never to mention their fears.Wrath brutally abuses the knowledge of ones fear, often using it to torment his victims. Kaze is generally fearless,so he doesnt quite grasp why others would be afraid.Quin, if only for a harmless park would jokingly tease about the fear, but will immediately stop if he thinks he’s gone too far.

31. Do they drink? What are they like drunk? What are they like hungover? How do they act when other people are drunk or hungover? Kind or teasing?((Shiro, Kaze and Wrath do not consume alcohol))Quin does drink, but only the drinks that taste “fruity”. and if he gets drunk, he becomes very flirtatious, to the point where he bets he could shove a wine bottle up his… ehm…y-you get the point…

33. What underwear do they wear? Boxers or briefs? Lacey? Comfy granny panties?((for this purpose,monsters will be in gjinka form))Boxers: Wrath, KazeBriefs: Shiro, Quin

35. What’s their guilty pleasure? What is their totally unguilty pleasure?Shiro’s guilty pleasure: making purring noises when happy, and getting chin scritches.Shiros unguilty pleasure: Making friends!Wraths Guilty Pleasure: expressing joy.Wraths unguilty pleasure: killing.Quins guilty pleasure: SingingQuins unguilty pleasure: Raving about his wife, Naomi.

37. Do they like to read? Are they a fast or slow reader? Do they like poetry? Fictional or non fiction?Shiro,Kaze and Quin all enjoy reading fiction books, Quins fave being kaiju novels, whereas shiro and kaze like fairy tale fantasy books. Quin and shiro are fast readers,but kaze is still learning howto read.Wrath thinks books are a waste of time and prefers to just burn them.

39. Do they like letters? Or prefer emails/messaging?-All characters live in a technologically inept age in terms of writing, so all must stick to letters,-

41. What’s their sexuality? What do they find attractive? Physically and mentally? What do they like/need in a relationship?Shiro would most likely be Heterosexual however a certain fish gets him all hot and bothered so i guess its a bit ambiguous. in a relationship,shiro likes mutual respect and lots of small signs of physical affection, like cuddling. Wrath is Unfeeling, although he would only have relations with an opposite gender.Kaze is too young to determine.Quin is Bi-Sexual, and likes a lady with confidence and curves, and a man with a cute face and muscle, but not too much! Quin also likes physical signs of affection and someone he can have a laugh with and relate to.

43. Are they religious? What do they think of religion? What do they think of religious people? What do they think of non religious people?…. uh

45. How do other people see them? Is it similar to how they see themselves?Shiro: I HAVE ZERO REDEEMING QUALITIES! ;U;Wrath: all fear me,and all SHOULD fear me…Kaze: they think i’m a cute! owoQuin: I’m not sure really…i guess just some guy??? i dunno…

47. How do they act in a formal occasion? What do they think of black tie wear? ((Monster OC’s will again be refered to in their gjinka forms))Shiro is ALWAYS the fanciest and classiest dressed mother fucker in the room.Wrath doesnt care. Kaze is often told by shiro to dress fancy but often just likes to wear hoodies and shorts cuz they’re comfy.Quin dresses his best on formal occasions, and would buy a tux if it were necessary.

49. What is their most valued object? Are they sentimental? Is there something they have to take everywhere with them?For shiro, Four obsidian spires in a long forgotten valley are very close to his heart. every year he goes to see them for hours on end on one particular day.Wrath has a scar on his chest thats important to him, however, its to remind him to NEVER show weakness.Kaze has a scale from Shiro that he carries everywhere, to make him feel like shiro will always protect him. Quin’s only thing from his parents are his fathers Critical Brachydios dual blades. he takes them on every serious hunt he’s been on.

[yahoo-puck-daddy-blog]

Trending Topics: With home ice squandered, Capitals face tough questions

The Capitals have problems, but Alex Ovechkin isn’t one of them. (Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

A little while back I had someone ask me a mailbag question about how the Maple Leafs would find an innovative way to lose their series to the Bruins and simultaneously break fans’ hearts.

The morbid beatdown the Bruins administered in Games 1 and 2 is a kind of heartbreaking that comes at you early and leaves you demoralized, but I don’t think it’s quite what the question-asker had in mind.

What’s happening to the Capitals very much is.

In Game 1, the Caps went up 2-0, blew that lead, went ahead again early in the third period, blew that lead on a bad penalty, and lost early in overtime on a what-can-you-do goal from a star talent.

In Game 2, they went up 2-0 and then 3-1, blew that lead, scored a late game-tying goal, then lost midway through the first overtime period on a bang-bang play.

That’s two home games in which the Caps either held a third-period lead or scored a late equalizer to give the fans hope, only to snatch it away in overtime in consecutive games. This is, however, nothing all that new. In the Barry Trotz era, the Caps are 6-9 in overtimes, which is a lot of overtimes to play in six-plus rounds over four seasons. And fully half of those wins came in last year’s seven-game series against the Leafs, during which five of the six games went to OT.

After blowing home ice and heading to Columbus for Tuesday’s Game 3, the Caps’ problems beyond making their fans type “I want to die” into various social media text as a sort of rite of spring are coming into clearer focus. It is, in fact, the same old tune played by the same old band.

To look at the Caps’ underlying numbers, you understand that they are great. Basically every non-goal 5-on-5 percentage is between 53 and 55, despite trailing for just 12 minutes in this series so far (and by the way, they’re 0-2 despite trailing for 12 minutes). But also, they’ve only scored two goals at full strength to the Blue Jackets’ five, all from at least middle-danger parts of the ice.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Caps don’t seem to be able to convert even the large amount of high-danger scoring chances they generate into actual goals on the scoreboard. They’ve taken 22 shot attempts from in close to the goaltender, and allowed just eight. The conversion rates there? A stunning 37.5 percent from the Jets (three goals on eight attempts) versus a not-so-stunning-if-you-watch-them-in-any-playoffs 0 percent for the Caps (zero on 22).

Yup, the Caps are shooting like garbage again, and especially at 5-on-5, and that seems to be the case for what looks like the 50th year in a row in the Alex Ovechkin Era. That’s not to put it on Ovechkin himself — he has two goals in as many games, and 17 total on 186 shots in 41 games over the last four postseasons, both of which are perfectly good numbers if erring a little on the unlucky side. If he were shooting at his career average, he would have like four extra goals over 41 games, and I’m not really that interested in splitting hairs any further than that, because it’s not really Ovechkin’s fault the Capitals once again aren’t scoring.

Let’s put it this way: With Ovechkin on the ice over the last four postseasons, the Capitals have shot a fairly low 8.6 percent across all situations (that number is about 11.7 percent in the regular season). However, it’s his teammates who aren’t carrying the water here, because when Ovechkin is on the bench in the playoffs, over 41 playoff games, the Caps have shot just 6.4 percent.

Now let’s put it another way: Ovechkin shoots roughly the league average in the playoffs under Trotz, meaning opposing goalies have a .914 save percentage against him. That means he’s basically facing Martin Jones every shift. But for his teammates to be shooting just 6.4 percent means they’re basically facing Cup-year Tim Thomas every shift, and I gotta tell ya: No goaltender they’ve faced (with the possible exception of Henrik Lundqvist if he’s truly on one) is that good.

But this all leads to the question of “Why is that a thing?” Because to so consistently shoot below-average as a team is kind of difficult to do if you’re a high-level NHL team, which the Caps consistently have been under Trotz. In fact, no team in the NHL is even close to having as many points as Washingtons’ 444 over the past four regular seasons.

I have some theories about this that I can’t really prove — much like the theory of evolution!!!!! — but I’ll present them to you anyway:

I think teams are always going to be less successful shooting the puck in the playoffs because playoff teams typically have good goalies. Over the past four postseasons, the Caps have faced a solid slate of competition, but nothing to the extent that you’d expect them to look horrible offensively. Maybe the Caps are an extremely outlier in this theory but it only makes sense that if you play elite teams you’re not going to score on as many shots, because elite teams are also pretty likely to do a good job of keeping you to the outside. I don’t think it’s coincidence that the Caps have lost to the Pens in the second round two years in a row.

The Capitals frankly don’t have a lot of scoring depth, nor have they ever, really. Ovechkin’s underlyings are always outstanding in the playoffs with Trotz behind the bench. The rest of the team is always a little under 50 percent when he’s off. I mean the clearest argument here is the team feels Tom Wilson is his best option as a right wing for these playoffs, with Evgeny Kuznetsov in the middle. That leaves Nick Backstrom and T.J. Oshie as the team’s only two real scoring threats. No one else on the team finished north of 40 points this season, and you can say what you like about the Blue Jackets, but they at least have guys who can go punch-for-punch with that kind of low-level offensive output. Columbus has more than five decent-to-great forwards.

It’s possible that good teams can shut Ovechkin down in the playoffs because for as much talk as there is of “The Ovechkin spot” and stuff like that, unless you put the Caps on the power play, he doesn’t really get there in the postseason. Under Trotz, eight of Ovechkin’s 17 goals have been on the power play (47 percent). In the regular season, that number is closer to 42 percent. That, too, isn’t to put anything on Ovechkin but good teams are able to shut good players down.

If you’re Ovechkin and you’re on the ice for 49 of your team’s 95 playoff goals over a four-year span, maybe you feel like “Well I have to do everything myself because none of these bums are picking up the slack for me at all.” The Caps have scored 46 goals in almost 1,735 minutes with Ovechkin off the ice over four years, and 49 in more than 844 when he’s off. He’s scoring at more than twice the rate they are, and everyone’s sitting around saying “This is an Ovechkin problem?” Come on, man.

In what way is this unlike the Oilers being total crap this year with McDavid off the ice or the Devils with Hall or the Avalanche with MacKinnon? Teams know they don’t have to shut down the freakin’ Jay Beagle line, so they can devote all their attention to shutting down Ovechkin instead. They don’t do a particularly good job of it, but the rest of the team is still so bad that it truly does not matter. It’s about 1.6 goals per 60 minutes of non-Ovechkin hockey. Who cares.

This isn’t an issue the Capitals can fix in this series, really, because Ovechkin is way past 30 and you can’t just say to him, “Go play 30 minutes a night and we’ll see what happens.” They might be able to draw a bunch of penalties out of Columbus (it’s worked so far!) to put Ovechkin in more positions to score, but if they don’t stop taking a bunch of them they’re going to end up zeroing-out the benefit.

This team only lives on narrow margins because it hasn’t been able to put together any depth that can match up with actual elite teams in years. So when they have another, ahem, “disappointing” postseason, at what point do we just not get to act surprised anymore?

—

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.

[junker-town]

Michigan State had a rebuilding-year record ... and now enters an actual rebuilding year

Mark Dantonio’s Spartans can rebound, but it probably won’t be all that noticeable until 2018.

The most direct path to playing like a top-15 team is recruiting at a top-15 level. Any other path is complicated and difficult to maintain. That this is so true is why college football’s oligarchy remains in place and why the blue-blood club welcomes new members so infrequently.

Mark Dantonio has won two of the last four Big Ten titles; Ohio State has won only one in that span, and rival Michigan has not even been to a conference title game. He has engineered five top-15 finishes in the last seven years, and despite inheriting a program that had bowled once in five years, he has bowled nine times in 10 seasons. His Spartans made the College Football Playoff in 2015; Michigan can’t claim anything close to that.

On paper, the Spartans have ranked 32nd or better in S&P+ in nine of his 10 seasons and 16th or better four times in a five-year span from 2011-15. He did this despite basically signing top-30 recruiting classes. That isn’t monstrous overachievement, but the steadiness is impressive.

Well, I should say it was impressive.

Everything came crashing down in 2016. The Spartans fell to 57th in S&P+, plunging 35 spots in Off. S&P+ (from 31st to 66th) and 28 spots in Def. S&P+ (from 13th to 41st). After winning nine of 10 one-possession finishes over a two-year span, they lost three of four. After averaging 9.7 wins per year through nine seasons, they lost nine games. Then they lost a number of expected starters to transfer or dismissal.

Following 2015’s CFP bid, State signed the 17th-best class in the country per the 247Sports Composite. It featured nine four-star prospects; only five remain on the roster just 16 months later. Four were recently dismissed because of sexual assault charges.

This has been a disastrous 10 months for what was once one of the steadiest programs in football.

There aren’t many routes to constant overachievement. Most require matriculation and development. You overcome a lack of elite recruiting by developing your two-deep, avoiding misses, and fielding experienced squads.

Dantonio has done that as well as anyone. But he went 3-9 with one of those experienced squads, and in 2017, a youth movement has been forced upon him. For the first time in a decade, there are questions about his decision-making and concerns about whether he can steer out of the skid.

Dantonio heads in with an incredibly green squad. The starting quarterback, top four receivers, half the first-string offensive line, half the first- and second-string defensive line and linebacking corps, and four of the top five defensive backs are gone.

The good news is that, until you’re pushed out, you have a chance to rebound. Plenty of strong athletes and regarded recruits remain, and even if State stinks, there’s a chance that a core of talent and leadership emerges. The Spartans will start very few seniors, so whoever takes hold will probably be back next fall. If Dantonio survives the calendar year with his job intact, he could get a head start on pushing forward again in 2018.

That’s the rosy spin. Before you can rebound, you have to stop plummeting. It could get worse before it gets better.

2016 in review

2016 Michigan State statistical profile.

A couple of Big Ten team previews — Illinois, Maryland — have focused on how inefficiency can render you inconsistent. Michigan State’s offense wasn’t as all-or-nothing as that of the Fighting Illini or Terrapins, but the Spartans ranked 86th in success rate and 102nd in points per scoring opportunity.

How inconsistent was the Sparty offense?

State vs. Notre Dame, Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan, Rutgers, and Ohio State: Avg. percentile performance: 72% (offense 79%, defense 49%) | Avg. yards per play: MSU 6.3, Opp 5.5 | Avg. score: MSU 31, Opp 26

State vs. Furman, Wisconsin, BYU, Maryland, Illinois, and Penn State: Avg. percentile performance: 31% (offense 29%, defense 37% | Avg. yards per play: Opp 5.5, MSU 5.0 | Avg. score: Opp 30, MSU 17

The first sample features four home games and four games against S&P+ top-50 teams; the second features three home games and three top-50 opponents. That’s about as even as you can get. The defensive output was similar, but in Sample A, State had a top-25-level offense; in Sample B, it was more like top 90.

If Michigan State could have played every game like it played the Michigan or Ohio State games, the season would have been fine. The Spartans averaged 5.7 yards per play against an awesome Wolverine D and held Ohio State to 4.6 in an unlucky loss.

Alas, there was another Michigan State, one capable of losing to Illinois, losing by double digits to Maryland, and barely easing by Furman.

Injuries played a role. Quarterback Tyler O’Connor dealt with inconsistency and concussion, got replaced, and returned thanks to Brian Lewerke’s broken leg. Plus, eight offensive linemen started at least three games (and only one started all 12).

Though the defense was a little steadier, for better or worse, the front seven was a revolving door, and not a single regular defensive back played in all 12 games. State’s depth was tenuous heading in, and thinner teams are going to struggle to withstand attrition.

Of course, depth is far more tenuous this year.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

O’Connor pulled off a feat in his lone year as Michigan State’s starting quarterback. He produced a season passer rating of 135.2 — neither great nor terrible — but in only two of 11 games was his rating within 25 points of 135. On three occasions (losses to Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn State), it was below 90. In these games, he threw one touchdown to five interceptions and completed a miserable 47 percent of his passes.

On three other occasions (wins over Furman and Rutgers and the shootout loss to Northwestern), his passer rating was above 200. He had nine touchdowns to two interceptions then and completed two-thirds of his passes. Yes, that includes Rutgers and Furman, but it also includes Northwestern’s sturdy defense.

This level of inconsistency was impressive, but it tells us nothing about State moving forward. Not only is O’Connor gone, but so are his top four targets. The leading returning passer is sophomore Lewerke, who took over for O’Connor, completed 31 passes, and broke his leg. The leading returning receiver is junior Felton Davis III, who caught 12 balls, six against Illinois.

Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Brian Lewerke

There are star recruits in the pipeline, at least. Lewerke was a high-three-star recruit, and both senior Damion Terry and redshirt freshman Messiah deWeaver were four-stars. In the receiving corps, Davis was a high-three, and sophomores Trishton Jackson and Justin Layne and redshirt freshman Cam Chambers were fours. The ceiling is high for the passing game, though co-coordinators Jim Bollman and Dave Warner aren’t going to throw much if they don’t have to.

As was the case in 2015, State maintained a straight-forward plan: run on standard downs, throw on passing downs. In 2015, with Connor Cook, the Spartans ranked 21st in standard-downs run rate and 121st in passing-downs run rate; in 2016, with a new QB, they still ranked 22nd and 100th, respectively. This predictability isn’t helpful unless you’ve got a strong passing unit. State did not.

It probably won’t in 2017 either; Lewerke had a lower completion rate and per-attempt average than O’Connor.

Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images

LJ Scott

On the plus side, Lewerke also made fewer mistakes (he had lower sack and interception rates), and his running ability is intriguing. Not only did he take fewer sacks, he doubled O’Connor’s rushing average, attempting 18 non-sack rushes and gaining 169 yards.

Lewerke’s mobility can only help LJ Scott and Gerald Holmes. Despite the passing inconsistency and the ever-changing OL two-deep, Scott improved his efficiency (opportunity rate: 33 percent in 2015, 41 percent in 2016) and explosiveness (highlight yards per opportunity: 4.9 in 2015, 5.3 in 2016) and enters his junior year as one of the more proven backs in the conference. Holmes is more all-or-nothing, but you can take that from a backup.

The line is an experiment in optimism vs. pessimism. The optimist would point out that two-year starter Brian Allen is back after anchoring last year’s line and becoming the only lineman to survive all 12 games. Four others with starting experience return; that includes guards Tyler Higby and David Beedle, who started a year’s worth of games between them.

The pessimist would point out that the four most experienced guys after Allen are gone. Higby, Beedle, and tackle Cole Chewins have combined for 14 starts. The four departures combined for 62. Line consistency is a massive requirement for a predictable offense; there’s no guarantee it will exist. Still, a Lewerke-Scott backfield is appealing, and I don’t expect further drop-off from the State offense. I don’t expect improvement either.

Defense

The double dip will kill you. In last year’s State preview (awkwardly titled “You're not counting Michigan State out of the 2016 Big Ten title race, are you?“ and finishing with the line, “if State falls, it won't fall far. The Spartans are just too sturdily built.”), I noted that Dantonio’s defensive line recruiting was losing five of the top seven tacklers up front. It was difficult to imagine an MSU front struggling much, but 2016 was going to be a test.

It became more of a test when no one could stay healthy. Star tackle Malik McDowell missed three games, and the end spot opposite Demetrius Cooper cycled between Option A, B, C, and D. As a result, State fell from 15th to 49th in Rushing S&P+ and, more devastating, from 18th to 124th in Adj. Sack Rate. McDowell and Cooper were the only two who logged more than five tackles for loss up front, and neither topped seven.

Now, after losing five of seven, the line must replace five of last year’s top 10, including McDowell. And it might be six — Cooper’s status with the team is in limbo. That’s a ton of turnover in a two-year span.

Sophomore tackles Raequan Williams and Mike Panasiuk are your de facto leaders up front, especially if Cooper is gone. They were both four-star recruits, as were other young tackles like sophomore Kyonta Stallworth and redshirt freshman Naquan Jones. There could be enough talent to make some plays and occupy blockers for Chris Frey, Andrew Dowell, and the linebacking corps.

Even if there’s a future in the middle, end is a mystery. Cooper led the team with all of 2.5 sacks, and juniors Robert Bowers and Dillon Alexander combined for 0.5. For all of the recruiting at tackle, not only are there zero four-star ends, two walk-ons (Alexander and Kenny Willekes) could end up in the rotation. That’s not a recipe for an improved pass rush.

Photo by Bobby Ellis/Getty Images

Raequan Williams

If the pass rush doesn’t become less miserable, I’m not sure how the pass defense improves. Michigan State was shockingly bad last year after years of being known more for good pass defense than for anything else; the Spartans ranked 120th in Passing S&P+ and got gashed by nearly every passing game with a pulse (and some without a pulse). Notre Dame, Northwestern, Maryland, and Penn State combined for a 69 percent completion rate, an 11-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio, and a 177.4 passer rating.

And now State has to replace four of last year’s top five, including corners Vayante Copeland and Darian Hicks. (Junior Tyson Smith’s status is very much up in the air after he revealed he had a stroke late in 2016.) Yikes.

Maybe some new blood in the secondary isn’t the worst thing; plus, thanks to injury, four returnees got enough opportunity to record double-digit tackles. But aside from maybe Smith, no returnee defensed more than two passes last year; the known play-makers are gone, and play-prevention isn’t automatically going to get better with new starters.

The key could be the sophomores. Safety David Dowell was a spring game starter, corners Josh Butler and Justin Layne (a part-time receiver) were four-star recruits, and Layne showed some decent ball skills in limited action. There is not a single senior in the backfield, and if two of these three sophs find themselves, this unit could rebound in 2018. But 2017 is going to be a trial.

(That sentence goes for more than just the secondary.)

Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Justin Layne

Special Teams

Place-kicker Michael Geiger’s steadiness was the catalyst behind State’s improvement from 108th to 46th in Special Teams S&P+. Unfortunately, Geiger’s gone, and the coverage units and return game were still mediocre at best. It might be difficult for State to remain in the top 50 here.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep Bowling Green 95 16.0 82% 9-Sep Western Michigan 74 9.7 71% 23-Sep Notre Dame 17 -7.1 34% 30-Sep Iowa 48 3.3 57% 7-Oct at Michigan 10 -17.2 16% 14-Oct at Minnesota 47 -1.8 46% 21-Oct Indiana 39 1.1 53% 27-Oct at Northwestern 37 -4.0 41% 4-Nov Penn State 8 -13.8 21% 11-Nov at Ohio State 2 -23.4 9% 18-Nov Maryland 72 9.1 70% 25-Nov at Rutgers 92 9.9 72%

Projected S&P+ Rk 44 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 65 / 34 Projected wins 5.7 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 12.2 (19) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 25 / 23 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -5 / -5.3 2016 TO Luck/Game +0.1 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 44% (35%, 52%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 5.0 (-2.0)

My February S&P+ projections suggested a rebound. A No. 44 ranking and 6-6 record would feel like a crippling disappointment for State in any other season, but it would mark a step forward this time.

The problem: February was quite a few transfers and dismissals ago. When I update the projections in August, it’s unlikely that State remains in the top 50.

There’s still a path to the postseason here; if State can sweep Bowling Green, WMU, and Maryland at home and Rutgers on the road, the Spartans would need to steal two other games to reach six wins, and with Notre Dame, Iowa, and Indiana visiting East Lansing, that’s not an impossibility.

Still, “with some breaks, State might win six!” is quite the low bar for a team that was in the national semifinals 17 months ago. I like Lewerke, and the State run game could power a far steadier offense, and it would be surprising if the run defense didn’t improve. But the passing game is starting over, and the smoking crater of a pass defense is going to take a while to rebuild.

State fell apart on the field and has since dealt with its worst offseason in the Dantonio era. A bowl would be nice, but the goal has to be building for 2018, even if that means playing some younger guys and losing a game or two you otherwise shouldn’t.

Team preview stats

All power conference preview data to date.

[rotoworld-yahoopartner]

Maple Leafs have a big week

It was a fun week in the NHL, but especially so if you love seeing penalty killers excel at their jobs as the scoring was down a bit in the 13th week of action. Even so, let's take a quick romp through the leaders.

James van Riemsdyk led with five helpers and points, as his teammate Nazem Kadri topped all by lighting the lamp three times. The big T.O. led the league with six power play goals on a leading 16 opportunities as well.

For the season, the first man to 20 points is...

No one, yet. Cam Atkinson leads with 19 as Victor Hedman boasts 18 points, followed by a trio with 17. Hedman meanwhile leads the way with 16 helpers, trailed by the next Nicklas Backstrom named Alexander Wennberg trails by a tally. As for the first player to 10 goals...

Sorry, again, false alarm. Atkinson tied some guy named Sidney Crosby at nine, who are followed by a quintet at eight markers.

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ANAHEIM

Cam Fowler: 11 points (5 goals) in 142:08 of power play time this season

Corey Perry: 14 points (2 goals) in 133:58

Ryan Kesler: 15 points (7 goals) in 129:41

Sami Vatanen: 10 points (2 goals) in 125:22

Ryan Getzlaf: 13 points (2 goals) in 122:10

Antoine Vermette: 6 points (3 goals) in 79:43

The Ducks went 0/10 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to30/135 or 22.2%. Since not much has changed since last week, let's take a look at how some of their youngsters have performed thus far. Rickard Rakell ranks fifth on the team in power play points with seven, including four goals in 67:12. Hampus Lindholm has a pair of points in 53:48. Rookies Shea Theodore and Brandon Montour – a point in 40:42 over 21 games, nothing in 12:39 over five games. Finally, fellow rookie Ondrej Kase has nothing to show for his efforts in 8:29 over 26 games. Honestly, feels more like untapped talent than a lack thereof.

ARIZONA

Oliver Ekman-Larsson: 11 points (5 goals) in 161:44 of power play time this season

Radim Vrbata: 7 points (2 goals) in 112:42

Martin Hanzal: 6 points (3 goals) in 97:23

Alex Goligoski: 4 points in 86:37

Max Domi: 4 points (a goal) in 69:54

Anthony DeAngelo: 6 points (2 goals) in 59:18

The Coyotes went 1/6 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 17/118 or 14.4%. Arizona's man-advantage has been so woeful this season that even during DeAngelo's three-game suspension he still managed to maintain his top-three slot on the team in power play points with six! But there's a bit of light beginning to glimmer at the end of the tunnel, Max Domi has been begun skating (without pucks).

BOSTON

Torey Krug: 8 points in 139:05 of power play time this season

David Krejci: 8 points (4 goals) in 129:47

Patrice Bergeron: 5 points (3 goals) in 122:11

Ryan Spooner: 6 points (2 goals) in 110:01

Brad Marchand: 9 points (3 goals) in 107:26

David Backes: 4 points (2 goals) in 97:35

The Bruins went 2/12 on the power play during the 13th of action, bringing their season's sum to 19/131 or 14.5%. John-Michael Liles returned to the blue line on Sunday, 20 games since he last played with 19 due to his recovery from a concussion. He didn't tick the stat sheet but he saw 70-second's worth of time. If he can help boost their man-advantage, expect him to see quite a bit of extra time.

BUFFALO

Rasmus Ristolainen: 15 points (a goal) in 142:57 of power play time this season

Sam Reinhart: 10 points (4 goals) in 135:11

Kyle Okposo: 15 points (6 goals) in 132:37

Matt Moulson: 12 points (7 goals) in 108:36

Ryan O'Reilly: 12 points (3 goals) 96:32

Brian Gionta: 1 point in 72:39

The Sabres went 3/12 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 28/128 or 21.9%. Jack Eichel had another quality week, boosting his totals to four goals and seven points with 17 shots in 63:56. There are 17 power play points spread away from the top-six above, Eichel has seven of them including four of the seven goals.

CALGARY

Sean Monahan: 9 points (4 goals) in 137:01 of power play time this season

Mark Giordano: 10 points (2 goals) in 126:34

Johnny Gaudreau: 10 points (2 goals) in 117:19

T.J. Brodie: 6 points (a goal) in 114:29

Troy Brouwer: 8 points (3 goals) in 104:25

Dougie Hamilton: 6 points in 89:16

The Flames went 4/12 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 29/140 or 20.7%. Mark it 7/23 over the last two weeks on the man-advantage. Captain Giordano leads with four points, but it's a three-way tie between Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik and Kris Versteeg who lead with a pair of goals. To wit Calgary's looked like a premier power play team lately, spreading their points 10-deep over the span.

CAROLINA

Jeff Skinner: 12 points (5 goals) in 95:22 of power play time this season

Victor Rask: 7 points (3 goals) in 94:35

Justin Faulk: 5 points (a goal) in 90:05

Noah Hanifin: 7 points (2 goals) in 89:55

Teuvo Teravainen: 7 points (3 goals) in 87:16

Lee Stempniak: 4 points (2 goals) in 82:30

The Hurricanes went 1/13 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 21/116 or 18.1%. Carolina has gone 1/18 on the man-advantage over the last two weeks, so who has the one marker? Why it's Mr. Skinner, of course. Aided by Rask and Noah Hanifin. The lack of production hasn't been for a lack of trying as they've pumped 26 shots on net over that span.

CHICAGO

Patrick Kane: 12 points (2 goals) in 162:29 of power play time this season

Artemi Panarin: 13 points (7 goals) in 150:37

Duncan Keith: 9 points in 150:17

Brent Seabrook: 10 points (2 goals) in 132:36

Artem Anisimov: 7 points (4 goals) in 110:08

Jonathan Toews: 6 points (3 goals) in 98:32

The Blackhawks went 1/9 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 24/130 or 18.5%. Keith has but one goal this season, and as you can see it isn't on the power play. But that's not so unusual. He has 23 power play goals now through 12 seasons, averaging a marker short of two-even per campaign. In fact during his pair of Norris Trophy seasons Keith scored just a trio of PPG's each, with 13 helpers in 2009-10 and 18 helpers in 2013-14.

COLORADO

Tyson Barrie: 6 points in 131:16 of power play time this season

Nathan MacKinnon: 7 points (2 goals) in 124:42

Mikko Rantanen: 7 points (3 goals) in 111:15

Matt Duchene: 6 points (2 goals) in 106:26

Jarome Iginla: 6 points (2 goals) in 98:59

Gabriel Landeskog: 2 points (both goals) in 76:31

The Avalanche went 2/10 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 18/132 or 13.6%. When Erik Johnson went down on Dec. 3rd, he had five power play points. That would rank him right where he is today, sixth on the team in power play points. Which is ahead of Landeskog, in case you didn't notice. In fact, there's a 30-minute time difference between the two in Johnson's favor spread over just six more games. - Trust me, I double checked. Hopefully it won't have to be darkest before dawn in Denver.

COLUMBUS

Zach Werenski: 12 points (3 goals) in 115:44 of power play time this season

Alexander Wennberg: 15 points (2 goals) in 109:01

Nick Foligno: 16 points (7 goals) in 108:21

Cam Atkinson: 19 points (9 goals) in 107:59

Sam Gagner: 14 points (6 goals) in 104:21

Brandon Saad: 2 points (a goal) in 65:32

The Blue Jackets went 3/14 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 31/116 or 26.7%. Let's take a look at how Columbus performed collectively on the power play during their 16-game winning streak, shall we? They went 15/53 or 28.3%. Atkinson led with nine points, and was matched only by Gagner in lighting the lamp four times. Their points spread ran 11-deep, including Jack Johnson, William Karlsson, and Scott Hartnell with a point each and the former two scoring a goal. Gagner had eight points; Werenski and Wennberg had seven points; Foligno had five points; and finally each of Saad, Seth Jones and Brandon Dubinsky had a pair.

DALLAS

Tyler Seguin: 15 points (7 goals) in 145:55 of power play time this season

John Klingberg: 9 points (a goal) in 139:10

Jamie Benn: 12 points (6 goals) in 136:66

Patrick Eaves: 11 points (8 goals) in 126:57

Jason Spezza: 12 points (a goal) in 107:41

Devin Shore: 3 points in 89:36

The Stars went 2/6 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 25/145 or 17.2%. They've been without their captain since the New Year began, Eaves and Klingberg have the two goals in his absence. While Klingberg and Spezza lead with two points each. Cody Eakins has been the big winner of Jamie Benn's time on the shelf, seeing 5:00 of his season's 9:01 total time on the power play and he has a point in that time. The production may no be eye-popping but that level of opportunity certainly is.

DETROIT

Henrik Zetterberg: 4 points (a goal) in 128:20 of power play time this season

Gustav Nyquist: 2 points in 120:21

Tomas Tatar: 1 point in 111:29

Mike Green: 4 points (a goal) in 109:34

Frans Nielsen: 7 points in 104:26

Dylan Larkin: 3 points (all goals) in 98:09

The Red Wings went 0/6 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 15/134 or 11.2%. Motown now has just a single power play goal in 27 opportunities over the last three weeks. There's no doom nor gloom to speak of, but they're the worst in the League and that's just the fact. They're not scoring, and maybe a shake to the core is in order.

EDMONTON

Connor McDavid: 14 points (2 goals) in 134:04 of power play time this season

Milan Lucic: 13 points (4 goals) in 124:14

Leon Draisaitl: 15 points (8 goals) in 123:11

Jordan Eberle: 10 points (3 goals) in 110:21

Oscar Klefbom: 5 points (a goal) in 104:39

Andrej Sekera: 5 points in 95:03

The Oilers went 1/7 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 28/132 or 21.2%. Mark it 3/14 over the last pair of weeks on the man-advantage for them. As you may suspect, Captain McDavid leads them with two points, and then seven more align with a point each. Which includes Patrick Maroon, who has the other goal.

FLORIDA

Keith Yandle: 9 points (2 goals) in 136:11 of power play time this season

Aaron Ekblad: 4 points (2 goals) in 132:46

Jaromir Jagr: 8 points (4 goals) in 122:04

Vincent Trocheck: 6 points (2 goals) in 121:13

Aleksander Barkov: 7 points (a goal) in 110:44

Jonathan Marchessault: 8 points (3 goals) in 101:41

The Panthers went 0/11 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 21/141 or 14.9%. Let's take a look at how opportunity was spread over the week. Trocheck took 16 of the 28 face-offs, winning eight as he sat second in time at 10:42 and with three shots. Michael Sgarbossa saw 7:28, Jussi Jokinen saw 9:04, and Reilly Smith saw 9:54 as well. While neither of them produced much, coach Tom Rowe appears intent on finding a combination that puts pucks in the net.

LOS ANGELES

Drew Doughty: 8 points (2 goals) in 131:34 of power play time this season

Jeff Carter: 10 points (7 goals) in 114:36

Anze Kopitar: 5 points in 107:47

Alec Martinez: 6 points (a goal) in 90:47

Tyler Toffoli: 3 points (2 goals) in 88:56

Tanner Pearson: 4 points (a goal) in 88:28

The Kings went 2/6 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 19/115 or 16.5%. Carter hasn't scored this many PPG's in two seasons when he scored 10. In fact, this is the eighth season in which he's scored as many as seven markers. If he can crack 10, it'll be the fifth time in his career he's reach the double-digit plateau.

MINNESOTA

Ryan Suter: 7 points (2 goals) in 111:24 of power play time this season

Eric Staal: 10 points (2 goals) in 99:35

Charlie Coyle: 7 points (4 goals) in 98:14

Matt Dumba: 7 points (3 goals) in 91:59

Mikko Koivu: 6 points in 81:36

Mikael Granlund: 7 points (2 goals) in 81:15

The Wild went 3/10 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 21/110 or 19.1%. They're now 5/18 over the last two weeks, and their point spread runs seven-deep. Zach Parise leads with two goals and four points, while Staal, Dumba and Granlund have also lit the lamp.

MONTREAL

Shea Weber: 14 points (8 goals) in 146:36 of power play time this season

Max Pacioretty: 8 points (5 goals) in 115:55

Alexander Radulov: 10 points (4 goals) in 113:53

Brendan Gallagher: 2 points (a goal) in 96:53

Andrei Markov: 8 points in 89:47

Jeff Petry: 6 points (2 goals) in 83:15

The Canadiens went 4/11 on the power play during the 13thweek of action, bringing their season's sum to 27/127 or 21.3%. Gallagher will join Markov, Shaw, and Alex Galchenyuk, among others, on the shelf unfortunately. The big winner appears to be Nathan Beaulieu, who played 11:56 with three helpers over the week. Both marks led the team, as PP-centerpiece Weber matched him in points and ranked fourth on the team in time at 11:09. They leaned on Pacioretty to take most of the draws as well, he went 7/11 as Michael McCarron, the next man up, lost all five.

NASHVILLE

Roman Josi: 9 points (2 goals) in 135:12 of power play time this season

Ryan Johansen: 14 points (3 goals) in 124:02

Filip Forsberg: 6 points (2 goals) in 111:35

Mike Ribeiro: 6 points (2 goals) in 103:17

James Neal: 5 points (2 goals) in 101:18

Mike Fisher: 11 points (6 goals) in 100:00

The Predators went 1/13 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 26/136 or 19.1%. Their power play over the last two week has gone 4/24, and has struggled overall without P.K. Subban. However with each of Neal, Viktor Arvidsson, and Colin Wilson sidelined along with Subban, the struggles may continue.

NEW JERSEY

Adam Henrique: 4 points (2 goals) in 117:53 of power play time this season

Travis Zajac: 6 points (3 goals) in 117:27

Damon Severson: 9 points in 116:39

Kyle Palmieri: 9 points (3 goals) in 116:21

P.A. Parenteau: 4 points (all goals) in 106:05

Michael Cammalleri: 5 points (a goal) in 98:42

The Devils went 1/13 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 19/141 or 13.5%. The production brings them to just 4/43 over the last three weeks. New Jersey's struggles have even affected Taylor Hall, who has seven points and a team-leading four goals. Just four, in 96:58 while playing in only 31 games.

NEW YORK ISLANDERS

John Tavares: 8 points (4 goals) in 123:10 of power play time this season

Nick Leddy: 8 points (2 goals) in 118:31

Josh Bailey: 7 points (a goal) in 111:33

Ryan Strome: 4 points (a goal) in 96:44

Andrew Ladd: 1 point in 85:58

Brock Nelson: 5 points (a goal) in 77:44

The Islanders went 1/8 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 16/108 or 14.8%. They're now 5/22 over the last three weeks on the man-advantage with five different scorers; Anders Lee, Johnny Boychuk, Lee, Ladd, Tavares. Bailey and Leddy lead the way with a trio of points.

NEW YORK RANGERS

Ryan McDonagh: 9 points (a goal) in 135:45 of power play time this season

Mats Zuccarello: 6 points (2 goals) in 115:26

Brandon Pirri: 8 points (4 goals) in 109:23

Derek Stepan: 8 points (a goal) in 107:223

Chris Kreider: 8 points (4 goals) in 95:16

Jimmy Vesey: 7 points (4 goals) in 77:25

The Rangers went 1/4 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 29/125 or 23.2%. Perhaps comically, the Broadway Blueshirts are still without a player in double-digit points. They do have four players leading with a quartet of goals in Vesey, Pirri, Kreider and Rick Nash. They run 11-deep in goal scorers, and 18-deep with at least a point. One of those is Mika Zibanejad, who has been out with a broken fibula since Nov. 20th, with five points, 15 shots, and having won 36/50 draws in 51:41 over 19 games, should return when New York's bye week ends on Jan. 13th.

OTTAWA

Erik Karlsson: 12 points (a goal) in 143:15 of power play time this season

Mark Stone: 11 points (5 goals) in 118:08

Mike Hoffman: 12 points (7 goals) in 111:43

Dion Phaneuf: 8 points (3 goals) in 105:54

Kyle Turris: 6 points (a goal) in 104:42

Derick Brassard: 3 points (a goal) in 98:28

The Senators went 1/4 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 20/124 or 16.3%. For the first time in two weeks, Canada's capital team lit the lamp thanks to Hoffman and aided by Stone and Turris. They fired seven shots over the four opportunities, and, finally, collected a bit of puck luck. As I said before, a little luck could go a long way.

PHILADELPHIA

Claude Giroux: 17 points (4 goals) in 160:26 of power play time this season

Jakub Voracek: 14 points (3 goals) in 160:23

Wayne Simmonds: 15 points (8 goals) in 159:16

Shayne Gostisbehere: 12 points (a goal) in 156:00

Brayden Schenn: 15 points (8 goals) in 149:03

Mark Streit: 6 points (a goal) in 73:56

The Flyers went 1/6 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 31/144 or 21.5%. Mark it 3/17 over the last two weeks combined. Ghost Bear leads with a trio of points as Schenn scored twice, followed by Voracek. Ivan Provorov continues his ascendancy, ranking sixth on the team in time with 10:12.

PITTSBURGH

Evgeni Malkin: 15 points (6 goals) in 145:53 of power play time this season

Phil Kessel: 16 points (4 goals) in 143:43

Sidney Crosby: 13 points (9 goals) in 122:02

Kris Letang: 11 points (2 goals) in 112:50

Patric Hornqvist: 9 points (6 goals) in 102:08

Justin Schultz: 8 points (a goal) in 85:43

The Penguins went 1/3 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 31/137 or 22.6%. Despite a lack of opportunities, Steel City still managed to go 3/11 over the last two weeks. Malkin leads with two goals and points, matched in points by Letang and Kessel as Schultz, Crosby and Matt Cullen chipped in a point as well. They're as healthy as they've been all season, and teams should really stop taking penalties against them.

SAN JOSE

Brent Burns:11 points (4 goals) in 154:16 of power play time this season

Joe Thornton: 10 points in 147:39

Joe Pavelski: 12 points (4 goals) in 144:55

Logan Couture: 7 points (6 goals) in 133:42

Patrick Marleau: 7 points (3 goals) in 131:25

Mikkel Boedker: 1 point in 77:43

The Sharks went 0/6 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 21/128 or 16.4%. They're 2/16 over the last couple of weeks with the man-advantage. Burns joined Evgeni Malkin as the only two players to reach the 50-shot plateau. That's mighty beastly, and the fact that Pavelski and Couture have 37 and 31 shots respectively isn't a bad sign at all. But David Schlemko ranks fourth with 19 shots in 55:38 of ice time over 30 games, which ranks ninth on the team. Predictability always halts talent.

St. LOUIS

Kevin Shattenkirk: 15 points (6 goals) in 132:10 of power play time this season

Vladimir Tarasenko: 17 points (6 goals) in 124:50

Paul Stastny: 8 points (3 goals) in 106:48

Alexander Steen: 10 points 104:28

Robby Fabbri: 8 points (4 goals) in 98:35

David Perron: 5 points (3 goals) in 98:28

The Blues went 3/12 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 28/128 on 21.9%. So which pops out more, that Shattenkirk has a team-leading six goals or that Tarasenko has matched him? Honestly, neither are surprising to me. It's hard to score even with the man-advantage, as the conversion rates always show. But the pending free agent defender has matched last season's PPG total, sitting two shy of setting a new career high. To wit, unless he goes on a profound cold streak, he'll finish the season with a new career high shooting percentage. GM Doug Armstrong isn't really going to not re-sign him, right?

TAMPA BAY

Victor Hedman: 18 points (2 goals) in 127:15 of power play time this season

Tyler Johnson: 12 points (5 goals) in 125:36

Alex Killorn: 7 points (2 goals) in 119:23

Nikita Kucherov: 14 points (6 goals) in 110:59

Ondrej Palat: 6 points (a goal) in 102:34

Brayden Point: 7 points (3 goals) in 99:46

The Lightning went 4/17 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 36/153 or 23.5%. The Bolts are 10/39 over the last three weeks with the extra man. Hedman leads with seven helpers as Kucherov, Brian Boyle and Jonathan Drouin have a pair of goals each. Drouin's 32:18 of ice time over that span ranks third on the team, just over two minutes shy of Johnson's play. His nine shots sit just one behind Kucherov's as well, indicating that the youngster is getting every opportunity to be the difference-maker we all know he is.

TORONTO

Jake Gardiner: 8 points (2 goals) in 110:23 of power play time this season

Auston Matthews: 11 points (3 goals) in 109:04

Mitch Marner: 9 points (a goal) in 101:52

James van Riemsdyk: 10 points (2 goals) in 101:27

William Nylander: 15 points (5 goals) in 100:43

Tyler Bozak: 6 points in 99:14

The Maple Leafs went 6/16 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 36/153 or 23.5%. Is it spring again? I thought it snowed in T.O. during the winter because these youngins' be blossoming. JVR led with five points, and Kadri with three goals this past week. But over the last three, where they've gone 11/35 combined, Kadri leads with five goals on 11 shots and six points. Not a bad time for the veterans to take the reigns while the kids; Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Brown and Zaitsev combined for two goals and 14 points.

VANCOUVER

Henrik Sedin: 8 points (a goal) in 142:36 of power play time this season

Daniel Sedin: 8 points (4 goals) in 129:30

Brandon Sutter: 5 points (3 goals) in 131:46

Troy Stecher: 4 points in 106:35

Loui Eriksson: 6 points (4 goals) in 106:13

Ben Hutton: 6 points (a goal) in 86:31

The Canucks went 2/12 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 18/128 or 14.1%. Mark it two weeks in a row with a 2/12 on their ledger. It's youngster Bo Horvat who led with a trio of points as Eriksson had a pair of goals. Sven Baertschi led with nine shots, the same as Eriksson and Sutter combined who trail him in order.

WASHINGTON

Alex Ovechkin: 9 points (6 goals) in 153:15 on the power play this season

John Carlson: 8 points (a goal) in 127:25

Nicklas Backstrom: 13 points (2 goals) in 123:50

Marcus Johansson: 7 points (3 goals) in 108:21

Evgeny Kuznetsov: 5 points in 92:11

Justin Williams: 5 points (3 goals) in 90:49

The Capitals went 1/8 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 20/122 or 16.4%. The District is now 1/25 over the last three weeks with the man-advantage, which is about as shocking as some of the point totals above. If T.J. Oshie misses time, or just plays hurt, expect Williams to continue to ride the sixth slot.

WINNIPEG

Dustin Byfuglien: 6 points in 144:36 on the power play time this season

Mark Scheifele: 7 points (4 goals) in 125:20

Blake Wheeler: 10 points (2 goals) in 124:37

Patrik Laine: 11 points (7 goals) in 121:36

Nikolaj Ehlers: 6 points (3 goals) in 114:39

Mathieu Perreault: 3 points (a goal) in 72:54

The Jets went 2/8 on the power play during the 13th week of action, bringing their season's sum to 23/134 or 17.2%. Let's start with Laine - he has a concussion, and there is no timetable for his return just yet. As we saw with David Backes and John-Michael Liles, his absence could range from three to 19 games. Considering he's 18-years-old and has been noted as being in high spirits since the game on Saturday against Buffalo, I'd hedge my bet that he'll return on the sooner side. But, as we all know, to each concussion its own.

As for who may fill his slot, it's hard to say. If coach Paul Maurice chooses to simply fill the role, he won't be able to. Bryan Little, Drew Stafford, Adam Lowry, and even Ehlers combine for just 42 shots led by Ehlers' 21. Laine has 40. If he rejiggers the lineup, then Toby Enstrom could be leaned on along with Jacob Trouba as Big Buff moves up. Should be fun to find out!

[junker-town]

Texas Tech’s offense will be great, but the defense will probably waste it. Aaaaagain.

This is the 2017 edition of the Texas Tech preview.

Air raid guys get a bad rap when it comes to defense. Their propensity for tempo and passing mean that their opponents get lots of possessions and lots of snaps. That leads to allowing quite a few yards and points even if they have pretty good defenses.

Adjusting for tempo and opponent, plenty of guys on the Hal Mumme tree have produced decent defensive performances.

Mike Leach’s last Texas Tech defense ranked 27th in Def. S&P+. His Washington State defenses have improved for a couple of years in a row, growing from 101st in 2014 to 63rd in 2016.

Dana Holgorsen’s West Virginia defenses have been top-50 for three straight years and top-40 for the last two.

Art Briles’ 2013 Baylor defense ranked 26th.

Sonny Dykes’ 2011 Louisiana Tech defense ranked 25th.

Mark Mangino had Kansas defenses at 21st in 2005 and 35th in 2007.

In Seth Littrell’s first year as North Texas head coach in 2016, the Mean Green improved from 120th to 93rd.

These are anecdotes and not statistically significant proof. But it shows that having an up-tempo, potentially pass-heavy attack and a solid defense is possible. Adopting the air raid does not commit you to awful defense.

Someone needs to tell that to Kingsbury.

Four years ago, Texas Tech’s hire was one of the most natural you’ll ever see. A former Red Raider quarterback under first Spike Dykes, then Mike Leach, Kingsbury enjoyed some time in the pros before returning to college football and succeeding as an offensive coach. Houston ranked seventh in Off. S&P+ in 2011 with Kingsbury as co-coordinator, and when he followed Sumlin to Texas A&M in 2012, his first Aggie offense, led by Johnny Manziel, ranked second.

Kingsbury was only 33 when Tech named him head coach in December 2012. It hadn’t even been 10 years since he threw his last pass — against Clemson in a dominating Tangerine Bowl win — in Red Raider red and black. Still, this felt right. After Leach’s controversial firing in 2009, Tommy Tuberville had taken over, and while he engineered two eight-win seasons and plenty of yards and points, the fit just wasn’t there.

Thus far as head man, Kingsbury has proved himself a great offensive coach. After a first-year reset, the Red Raiders have ranked 19th, first, and sixth in Off. S&P+. And in that three-year span, they have lost four times while scoring at least 50 points and 12 times while scoring at least 30.

Tech’s Def. S&P+ ranking the last three years: 114th, 124th, and 125th. The Red Raiders are the exception that proves the rule — yes, you can play decent defense with this offensive system. But Tech can’t. Or at least, Tech hasn’t yet.

After going 8-5 in his first year (with his worst offense to date, no less), Kingsbury has since gone just 16-21. The 2016 season was his second bowl-free campaign in three years. His status as a Tech legend has earned him a little more rope than another coach might get, but he’s stretched that rope out pretty far. His offense will remain prolific despite the loss of first-round quarterback Pat Mahomes II, but he and defensive coordinator David Gibbs have to rebuild their defensive line and hope injury was the primary cause for Tech’s dreadful pass defense.

There were a lot of injuries to deal with, for what it’s worth. Twelve different defensive backs made at least 6.5 tackles, and three of them played in all 12 games. The shuffling up front was nearly as bad. Even Nick Saban needs some semblance of continuity; Tech’s 2016 defense never had a chance.

Still, for most of three years the Tech defense has been the unfair air raid stereotype. And as magical as Kingsbury’s offensive touch is — again, I’m simply assuming another top-15 offense despite the Red Raiders losing an incredible quarterback, plus a nearly 1,200-yard receiver — he might be looking at a coordinator gig in 2018 if Tech can’t make a few stops per game.

2016 in review

2016 Texas Tech statistical profile.

If you’re looking for hope, maybe there’s this: Tech’s defense had three of its five best performances in the first five weeks, before attrition had set in.

First 5 games (3-2): Avg. percentile performance: 72% (~top 35) — 86% offense, 41% defense | Avg. score: Tech 55, Opp 39 (plus-16)

Last 7 games (2-5): Avg. percentile performance: 38% (~top 80) — 49% offense, 24% defense | Avg. yards per play: Opp 47, Tech 35 (minus-12)

The first five games did include frustrating shootout losses to Arizona State and Kansas State, but the KSU loss was fluky — Tech outgained the Wildcats by 257 yards and was only minus-1 in turnovers, but KSU scored two return touchdowns and won all four fourth downs (Tech was 0-for-3, KSU 1-for-1). Still, six weeks into the season, Tech was still a healthy 36th in S&P+. Six games later, the Red Raiders were 82nd following a 56-point loss to Iowa State.

Their final ranking bounced back to 66th thanks to a blowout of collapsing Baylor, but the last seven games saw five miserable defensive performances and a couple of offensive duds as well. Injuries played a role, but this was a disturbing look at how low the team’s floor is. Will good health lead to a longer look at the ceiling?

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Even adjusting for tempo (and nagging injuries to Mahomes), Tech’s offense was ridiculous. Only four teams produced an adjusted scoring average (i.e. an Off. S&P+ rating) of 40-plus points per game in both 2015 and 2016: Cal, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. That’s two air raid programs (Cal was led by Sonny Dykes both years) and two that combined to go 50-6.

That Tech’s offense maintained most of its 2015 form was impressive, considering Mahomes had shoulder and wrist issues for much of the year. Mahomes was also asked to carry more of a load because of a complete restart in the run game.

The 2015 Tech attack featured 1,500-yard rusher DeAndre Washington behind a line that included three three-year starters; in 2016, freshman Da’Leon Ward led Tech backs with just 428 yards (4.2 per carry) behind a line that only had a couple of experienced pieces and had to start eight different guys at least once. Five of the eight were either freshmen or sophomores.

And Tech fell all the way from first to sixth in Off. S&P+.

Kingsbury’s track record makes it impossible to worry about points. In a limited sample size, Mahomes’ backup Nic Shimonek completed 66 percent of his passes and nearly matched Mahomes’ per-attempt averages. He wasn’t nearly as much of a mobility threat, but if he wins the starting job in 2017, he’ll probably be fine.

Of course, if junior Payne Sullins, JUCO transfer McLane Carter, or freshman Xavier Martin wins the job instead, he’ll probably be fine, too. But it’ll probably be Shimonek.

Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Nic Shimonek (16) and Demarcus Felton (27)

Leading receiver Jonathan Giles elected to transfer, which would be a source of concern for most offenses, but Giles was one of four Red Raiders targeted at least 80 times last year, and the other three are back.

Giles was impressive, mind you — he combined a 62 percent success rate with 16.8 yards per catch, a 97th-percentile performance overall. Still, the experience level at receiver is solid. Inside receivers Keke Coutee and Cameron Batson combined for 116 catches at 9.5 yards per target, Dylan Cantrell is a physical possession guy on the outside, and between senior Derrick Willies, sophomores Quan Shorts and Antoine Wesley, and redshirt freshman T.J. Vasher, odds are good that at least one more high-proficiency wideout will emerge.

Tech will be able to pass, and that should result in at least 30 points in most 2017 games. But to reach 2015 levels, the ground attack will be key. The line is in a far steadier place, especially if it finds itself less reliant on freshmen. But a back still needs to emerge.

It was easy to assume that guy would be Justin Stockton a year ago. Through his first two seasons, Stockton had averaged seven yards per carry with seven receiving touchdowns. But aside from a couple of long early receptions, he was woefully unproductive in 2016, and he spent the spring dealing with issues related to head injuries.

Da’Leon Ward, meanwhile, was efficient for a freshman but offered no explosiveness whatsoever; per carry, Demarcus Felton was the most productive of the backs, but 237 of his 354 yards came in a three-game span early in the season. Kingsbury has said that he’s looking for a potential graduate transfer to fill in the two-deep here. It’s not hard to see why, especially if Stockton remains a question mark.

Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Keke Coutee

Defense

New quarterback? Iffy running back? No matter. Tech will score points. Bowl hopes will again hinge on whether the defense can be at least semi-competent.

The Red Raiders were bad in every way a defense can be bad in 2016.

128th in plays of 10-plus yards (241, or 20 per game!)

128th in passing downs success rate (40.9 percent)

126th in success rate (49.4 percent)

126th in Adj. Sack Rate (32.9), 126th in passing downs sack rate (2.4 percent)

124th in plays of 30-plus yards (44, nearly four per game!)

123rd in rushing success rate (51.8 percent)

119th in standard downs success rate (52.5 percent)

118th in passing success rate (46.9 percent)

105th in points per scoring opportunity (4.92)

101st in stuff rate (16.7 percent)

Or, in chart form:

Tech had by far the worst success rate and IsoPPP average in the Big 12, a conference not known for defensive prowess.

Coordinator Gibbs is, on paper, the perfect air raid defensive coordinator. He found success as D.C. at both Minnesota and Auburn at times, and he calibrates his entire defense around forcing turnovers.

Well, that’s what he wants to do, anyway. He couldn’t do much of anything with Tech’s young personnel in 2016. Tech managed a paltry 13 takeaways (112th in FBS) and forced just nine fumbles (78th).

This went beyond injury; after all, the Red Raiders boasted two former blue-chip defensive tackles in Breiden Fehoko and Ondre Pipkins, they missed one game between then, and they still couldn’t stop the run to save their lives. Still:

Leading returning defensive end Gary Moore missed five games.

Leading returning linebacker Dakota Allen was kicked off the team in May (and then rejoined in December).

Second leading returning linebacker D’Vonta Hinton missed seven games.

Second leading returning safety Tevin Madison missed 10.

Safety Payton Hendrix missed six. Safety Keenon Ward missed three.

Cornerback Nigel Bethel II transferred before the season, and corners Paul Banks III and Desmon Smith missed a combined seven games.

And on and on. It was like coaching a brand new defense every week. And when you’re in a league full of high-tempo offenses adept at exploiting any crack, that’s deadly.

Photo by John Weast/Getty Images

Jah'Shawn Johnson

We don’t know if Kingsbury puts the right amount of emphasis on defense, and we don’t know if Gibbs’ turnovers-über-alles approach has merit. But continuity would help us find out.

It would allow us to figure out if a secondary that allowed a 151.6 passer rating (with 28 touchdowns to just five picks) was bad because of talent or inexperience. Six DBs with at least 13 tackles return, and five of them were either freshmen or sophomores last year. Safeties Jah’Shawn Johnson and Douglas Coleman III combined for 15 passes defensed and four tackles for loss, which might be a good sign of potential play-making ability, and at nearly four stars, junior Payton Hendrix was the closest thing to a star recruit the secondary has.

The cornerback situation is less clear, but between senior D.J. Polite-Bray, sophomore Dsmon Smith, and JUCO transfers Octavious Morgan and Jaylon Lane, there are options, I guess.

Allen’s return gives Tech a couple of potential play-makers at linebacker. He made six tackles for loss with three passes defensed as a redshirt freshman in 2015, and Jordyn Brooks had five and four, respectively, as a freshman last year. But they could be having to shed a lot of blockers if the line can’t do its job. The line was iffy last year with blue-chippers Pipkins and Fehoko; now both are gone. So is Kris Williams, the only player on the team to record more than one sack. Yikes.

I’m not particularly worried about the tackles. A foursome of 2016 backups — seniors Zach Barnes and Mychealon Thomas, sophomores Broderick Washington and Joseph Wallace — combined for 7.5 tackles for loss among 36 tackles, and Wallace had three in only eight games. The ends, though? Kolin Hill is the closest thing to a proven play-maker, and he had four TFLs and three breakups. Gibbs doesn’t mind a bend-don’t-break approach at times, but you need at least some attacking potential.

Photo by John Weast/Getty Images

Jordyn Brooks

Special Teams

Because Tech was good at finishing drives in the end zone, kicker Clayton Hatfield was only asked to take 14 field goals last year. But five of them were longer than 40 yards, and he missed only one. That’s an encouraging sign considering he might be asked to salvage a few more stalling drives this time around. (His five missed PATs are a red flag, however.)

Hatfield’s great per-kick average salvaged a No. 67 Special Teams S&P+ ranking for a unit that was iffy at punting (not that they punted much) and had no oomph in kick returns. There’s a good chance he’s relied on even more in 2017.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep Eastern Washington NR 19.3 87% 16-Sep Arizona State 58 1.4 53% 23-Sep at Houston 49 -4.6 40% 30-Sep Oklahoma State 22 -8.0 32% 7-Oct at Kansas 107 10.9 74% 14-Oct at West Virginia 69 -0.9 48% 21-Oct Iowa State 57 1.3 53% 28-Oct at Oklahoma 5 -23.1 9% 4-Nov Kansas State 35 -2.7 44% 11-Nov at Baylor 28 -9.3 29% 18-Nov TCU 21 -8.2 32% 25-Nov at Texas 16 -15.0 19%

Projected S&P+ Rk 66 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 4 / 124 Projected wins 5.2 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 3.6 (51) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 45 / 45 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -4 / -1.0 2016 TO Luck/Game -1.2 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 61% (62%, 59%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 5.3 (-0.3)

S&P+ projects Tech fourth on offense and 124th on defense. The offense will be its typical awesome self (though maybe not quite as awesome — Giles’ transfer wasn’t part of the initial S&P+ projections), and the defense faces more burden of proof than any unit in the country.

I assume the secondary will come through, but it’s hard to paint an optimistic face on the defensive front. That means a lot more shootouts. We expect nothing less in Lubbock.

So can the Red Raiders win some more shootouts? S&P+ projects five relative tossups — Arizona State, at Houston, at WVU, Iowa State, and Kansas State are all between 40 and 53 percent win probability — and Tech will probably have to win at least three of those to bowl.

At some point, bowling might not be enough, but it would be a step forward. Kingsbury needs a few of those, but you can’t get a few without the first one.

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