#neither am I sure if it's just 'encanto' or 'the encanto' in reference to the town

[faintvibes]

What is the Population of the Encanto Town?

Though I saw (and loved) this movie when it first came out, the brainworms have come back with a vengeance, and so here we are. This might end up becoming a series (it's certainly not the only analysis I have rattling around in my brain regarding this movie) but we'll see.

The analysis is below, but if you seek a quick answer: tl;dr at least 100 people live in the town, with that number possibly being as high as 1,000, but probably closer to 500 max.

So, of course, it's pretty much impossible to know the exact population of the town without a statement from the creative team, which- so far as I'm aware- hasn't been shared. (I've been going through the qna's recently, and haven't found any answer regarding this, but twitter also keeps mistaking my account for a bot, and I'm apparently incapable of passing the tests to prove I'm not. So I've definitely not seen every answer. If anyone has a masterpost somewhere, please send.) As a result, the best I can give is an estimate.

My starting point was Colombian fertility rates. These show, year by year, the average number of children born to each woman. The data for Colombia starts in 1950, approximately when the movie takes place. However, it's worth considering that the people in Encanto aren't living like it's 1950, but rather like 1900: when the town was founded, according to a map on the second floor of Casita.

In case anyone hasn't seen this map, here is an image of it, enhanced to make it a little clearer to read:

and here's the scene it appears in:

So, knowing this and generally observing the culture and customs of the people we see in the movie, it is very clear that they are living (generally) like it's still 1900. Therefore, the fertility rate is likely to be closer to whatever it was in 1900, rather than 1950. However, as I have no way to know what this might have been, the 1950 stat (6.4) is the best estimate I have.

By Number of Buildings

Judging both by that map, as well as this overview image of the town:

I estimated how many buildings there are, just by eyeing it. Note that this might lead to some inaccuracies, but I tried my best. Looking at the overview, I counted 97 buildings, however on the map I counted 103 (both of these counts include Casita). Since the map gives a clearer view of the individual buildings, I'm presuming that number to be more accurate.

Now, we know the town has a church and a school, both of which can be presumed to not house anyone. I'd also guess it has a town hall. Some of these buildings might also be shops, workshops, community buildings, etc, which presumably would also not house people. However, I have no way to estimate which buildings these might be, or how many buildings fulfil these purposes (also taking into consideration that some people live on top of their shops, and other such situations), I have decided to not bother counting these buildings, and just presuming that- outside of the three buildings I can confidently say are unlikely to house anyone- presume that every other building has at least one resident. That means the town has at least 100 residents. Add in the additional Madrigals, and this minimum is bumped up to 109. Going to the other end of things, my absolute maximum estimate for number of people per building would be 10, meaning my highest possible population estimate is 1,000.

The number 10 is both connected to the Madrigals, and the aforementioned birth rate. 6 kids and 2 parents would be 8 people a house, while the extra 2 gives leeway for more kids, or other relatives who might also be staying there.

People in Various Scenes

There are various scenes in the movie where we see a large number of townsfolk, and I figured judging the number of people we see in these scenes might give a sense of the size of the town. My mind first went to Antonio's gift ceremony, where we see a large number of people gathered in Casita to witness the event. I wouldn't expect the whole town, but it still might help in some sense.

The first image I used from the gift ceremony was of Abuela's speech, before Antonio makes the walk to his door. Here, we see an overview of most of the crowd:

While observing this image, I was able to count about 91 people, which jumped to 94 when I added in Mirabel, Antonio, and Bruno. It's worth noting, however, that there are most certainly people in this crowd who we don't see, just because of the angle.

The other screenshot I considered was this one:

It's harder to make out people, however, and there are most certainly less of the crowd visible than before. I counted 33 people (40, if you count the Madrigals we know to exist, but aren't visible), but this number is pretty much useless.

The next place I looked for this method was the scene in All of You, where the town comes out to help the Madrigals. There were two screenshots I used to come up with this next estimation:

Neither of them are exactly perfect, with people being small and hard to see in both images, but I did my best. It's likely the most complete image of the town's population we see. I counted around about 100, solidifying my minimum population number. Additionally, while the other two examples were limited by Casita's max capacity, the fact that this count is a similar number despite the far more open space indicates that this might be closer to the actual number of villagers than the higher estimates. Again, though, there's no way this is everyone in the town.

Looking at screenshots ended up leading me to my final method to estimate the town's population.

Ancestry

When we look at screenshots from Dos Oruguitas, we can see the scene where Alma, Pedro, and the rest of the people travelling with them cross the river where Pedro dies:

When watching this scene, before it cuts away from this image, you can see the moment people stop coming from the right side to join the end, so I'd be fairly confident in saying that the people pictured here are the entirety of the exodus. Minus Pedro, they are the entirety of the Encanto's initial residents. I was able to count their numbers, and estimate 33 adults (including Alma and Pedro), and 8 children (including the triplets), though it's likely that more are hidden by all the adults grouped together.

As a side note: I couldn't exactly spot him, but presumably Félix should be part of this group, as he was ~2 years old at the time of the miracle.

Additionally, I couldn't spot any elderly people during my count, so I'm presuming there aren't any in the group, and all the adults are roughly the same generation as Alma and Pedro (we'll call this Gen One). The kids pictured are then presumed to be part of Gen 2. Excluding A & P, who we know don't have any more children, that leaves around 15 potential couples, each of whom could have between 0 and let's say 7 children. This means Gen 2 could end up having between 8 and 105 members. Therefore, we can estimate that Gen 2 would have between 4 and 54 potential couples, who each could have between 0 and 7 children (Gen 3). Given we know that there are 6 Madrigal members of Gen 3, this means that there are anywhere from 6 to 378 members of Gen 3.

(Some young children seen in the movie could, perhaps, be part of Gen 4, but I've not included this in my numbers, as Gen 4 would be in its early stages, and so the number of potential members is difficult to calculate.

It's also worth nothing that the maximum couple numbers, and therefore offspring numbers, per generation are numbers I'd consider very unlikely to be reality. If people are having up to 7 kids each, then pairing up everyone in Gen 2 would inevitably lead to people likely being paired up with siblings, which I'd consider unlikely. The real couple number is probably closer to 20 or so for Gen 2. Additionally, it's likely that most adults in Gen 1 have family members also in the exodus, so the max of 15 pairs is also unlikely.)

Adding all these up, and considering the minimum of 100 people, this indicates that the Encanto's population is likely between 100 and 515.

Summary

Considering all these calculations, I again am certain that at least 100 people live in the Encanto. While my first method estimated a maximum population of 1,000, I believe my later estimations affirm that a number this high isn't likely. If I had to guess, there's probably between 150 and 300 people living in the Encanto. But hey, here's the info! Feel free to come to your own conclusions :) I'd be very interested to hear alternative reasoning!