#like. people will sympathize and perhaps some would vote for it that otherwise wouldn't
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#okay so#major theory and one of the big favourites (I guess according to the ~odds 🙄) is that ukraιne is gonna landslide eurovsion#and I don't really see it#I might be wrong ofc it wouldn't be the first time and I don't have a problem to admit it when it happens#but here's what I believe#they're gonna really well on the televote. they usually already do and it is a catchy beat#but to win? the song isn't there. the momentum isn't there#like. people will sympathize and perhaps some would vote for it that otherwise wouldn't#but I don't see it happening overwhelmingly#especially when there *are* other very competitive songs#it would be a display of solidarity yeah and there's the whole soft power thing#you're not actually contributing for any ukranian cause when you vote for them#(for example in melodifestivalen the money they got from the charity calls went to aid organizations)#people also know that the winner gets to host#and they know they couldn't possibly do it. and I think that would be a discouraging factor too#(of course if they did I'm sure a couple broadcasters would offer to do it instead)#(also pretty sure the ebu wouldn't want that. the 2017 contest was already difficult to put on)#in conclusion: I don't believe they're gonna walk it mainly because there are other songs that are impactful#and I'll add one more time: the discussion of the betting market as if it's predictive it's boring and I hate it#thnks
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