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nostalgebraist · 2 years ago

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on bio anchors

"Bio Anchors" is a long document by Open Philanthropy researcher Ajeya Cotra.

Many people have written more accessible summaries of this document. My favorite of these is Scott's, and he links to a few of the others.

I have thought a lot about this report, and I would summarize it in a very different way. Here is the argument of Bio Anchors, as I understand it. (Formatted like a quotation, but it's my own words.)

Computers keep getting faster, exponentially. How far will this trend go before hitting a limit? It's hard to know. Hardware experts believe the current trend can't go on indefinitely, at least as long as we're still using silicon chips. And then if we switch to more exotic hardware, that'll be so different that it's difficult to assess now how much it will help. But in the past, people have often claimed Moore's Law will stop due to some fundamental limit or other, and yet people keep finding ways to make computers faster, or faster at specific applications. So it seems reasonable to imagine that computers will get many orders of magnitude faster in the coming century, even if they hit a limit sometime in the middle. So in 2060 or 2100, we might have computers that are (say) 10 million times faster than today's computers. This has extreme implications. Computers like that could run brute force calculations of such large scale they sound like jokes, like a "replay of brain evolution": doing the same amount of calculation as all nervous systems of all organisms that ever lived on earth, taken together. [The report implies a ~10% probability you could do this with 1 trillion dollars worth of these future computers, which is a lot of money, but not necessarily an absurd % of future-GDP to spend on a big science project.] These mind-boggling capabilities would no doubt change the world in numerous ways. One of the implications is that building true AI may be easier than you might think. Natural selection "built intelligence the hard way." AI researchers are trying to build it an easier way, but with those computers, they wouldn't have to be as clever -- they could just offload a lot of the work onto massive brute force trial-and-error, like natural selection did. Makes you think!

Now, I don't think this is a bad argument! It really is worth thinking about how we don't know when Moore's Law-style growth will stop, and what the world might be like if it keeps going for a long time.

But -- this is not the way the report frames itself. It doesn't resemble any of the other summaries of the report, either. This argument is not easy to read off the text of the report. You have to do a lot of digging and thinking to find it.

----

What does Bio Anchors say that it is? It says it's about forecasting when "transformative AI" will occur, meaning AI that will transform the world economy.

It uses a very complicated methodology, with a lot of moving parts. I won't try to summarize all of them. But briefly, the key ingredients are

a future trajectory for falling computation cost over time (projecting Moore's Law up to some limit)

a future trajectory for how much money people will be willing to spend on a transformative AI project

a number for the amount of computation needed to create a transformative AI

To find out when transformative AI happens, you look for when (amount of money spent) times (cost of computation) equal (computation needed for transformative AI).

The report spends the majority of its ~200 pages of discussion and calculation on ingredient #3, the amount of computation needed. Most of the report is about producing a (very wide) probability distribution over this number. It proposes six different ways of thinking about what this number might be, and estimates a probability distribution based on them, and then does a weighted average of all those distributions.

The report seems to assume that I really, really care about the exact shape of this distribution. But it's not clear to me why this matters. The most important thing about it, by far, is just one number:

What is the probability that the amount of computation needed for transformative AI is feasible given the upper limit where Moore's Law stops?

That is, assume some upper bound on spending like $1 trillion or even $10 trillion, and imagine spending that amount on the future computers that have hit the Moore's Law limit. What is the probability that this is enough?

This probability is what the report emits for "the probability that transformative AI will be developed by 2100." (Since the report only goes up to 2100, and also [sort of] assumes Moore's Law will hit the limit before then.)

And this estimate, about AI by 2100, is the most important number that comes out of the report.

Here is the punchline of the report, as presented in some of the other summaries:

Conclusions of Bio Anchors Bio Anchors estimates a >10% chance of transformative AI by 2036, a ~50% chance by 2055, and an ~80% chance by 2100. [OpenPhil Co-CEO Holden Karnofsky]

So When Will We Get Human-Level AI? The report gives a long distribution of dates based on weights assigned to the six different models [...]. But the median of all of that is 10% chance by 2031, 50% chance by 2052, and almost 80% chance by 2100. [Scott Alexander]

In a sense, the other numbers mentioned are just consequences of the "by 2100" number.

The "by 2100" number is set by the upper limit on Moore's Law. If you go to earlier dates, you get a lower probability, in a manner that climbs smoothly because we're combining uncertain estimates with smooth declines in compute cost. If Moore's Law won't "get us there" by 2100, it won't get us there any earlier either; if it will get us there by 2100, then because of all the uncertainty involved, there's some chance it will get us there by 2050, and some lower chance by 2030, etc.

The exact shape of the "how much compute?" distribution can affect two things: the "by 2100" probability, and the shape of the probability trend across earlier years.

But the latter really does not matter much. If the "by 2100" number is 80%, then the "by 2050" number is inevitably going to be something much greater than 0% and much less than 80%. So it's 50%. If it had been 40% or 60%, would anyone have cared about the difference?

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So really, all that effort the report pours into the exact shape of the "how much compute?" distribution has little impact. Whether it knows it or not, all of that stuff is really just estimating a single number.

And that number doesn't just depend on the "how much compute?" distribution. It also depends on how much money people will spend, and on how far Moore's Law will continue. Let's focus on the latter.

Where will Moore's Law hit a limit? This estimate drives the whole conclusion of the report. But the report spends very little time on it. Indeed, most of the details are relegated to an appendix, and the appendix is full of comments like:

Because they have not been the primary focus of my research, I consider these estimates unusually unstable, and expect that talking to a hardware expert could easily change my mind. [...] [...] After an extremely cursory look into this topic (entirely via talking with Paul and simple Google queries), my tentative best guess is [...] [...] I am very unsure where the balance of considerations should fall.

Ultimately, the analysis has two parts.

First, Cotra estimates ("after an extremely cursory look into [the] topic") that if you make silicon chips as transistor-dense as possible, and add on all other specific foreseeable mechanisms for better efficiency, you get a speedup of 144x, for a FLOPS/$ value of 1.7e19.

Then, Cotra notes that people might switch to non-silicon computers, and says that this may let us continue the trend, but maybe not as far as we went in the 20th century:

The above reasoning was focused on listing all the foreseeable improvements on the horizon for silicon-based chips, but I believe there is substantial possibility for both a) “unknown unknown” sources of improvements to silicon chips and b) transition to an exotic form of hardware. For example, at least some companies are actively working on optical computing in particular [...] My expectation is that “unknown unknown” factors and especially new hardware paradigms will at least drive the continuation of the recent ~3-4 year doubling time trend well past 2040 [...] With that said, my understanding from discussions with technical advisors is that further improvement in hardware prices is likely to be slower than Moore’s law and there will likely be much less total improvement over the next century than we have seen in the past century, even taking into account the various potential options for exotic computing paradigms -- this is partly due to the likelihood of running up against fundamental physical limits. [...]

and then she . . . uh . . . just guesses a number:

I am very unsure where the balance of considerations should fall. For now, I have assumed that hardware prices will fall at a rate somewhere in between Moore’s law and the more recent trend, halving once every 2.5 years. I have also assumed that there is room for about 6 OOM of further progress in hardware cost in this century, which is a little over half as much as the 11 OOM of progress that was made from the 1960s to 2020.

That 6 OOM improvement translates into an upper limit of 1e24 FLOPS/$. This means we're assuming we'll get an extra ~60,000x speedup over the previous estimate from maxing out silicon chips.

Is this too high? Too low? I have no idea -- I don't know how far Moore's Law will go, any more than Cotra does. Any number is just a guess.

But of course, this estimate determines what is predicted.

With the 60,000x extra speedup, we get Cotra's 78% chance of TAI by 2100.

Assume a 600x extra speedup, and you get a 66% chance. (This is Cotra's "conservative" forecast, except with none of the other conservative assumptions.)

Assume a 6x extra speedup, and you get a 52% chance. (Which is still pretty high, to be fair.)

Assume no extra speedup, and also no speedup at all, just the same computers we have now, and you get a 34% chance . . . wait, what?!

Well, Cotra has a whole other forecast I didn't mention for "algorithmic progress," and the last number is what you get from just algorithmic progress and no Moore's Law.

So depending on how much you trust that forecast, you might want to take all these numbers with an even bigger grain of salt than you'd expected from everything else we've seen.

How much should you trust Cotra's algorithmic progress forecast? She writes:

Note: I have done very little research into algorithmic progress trends. Of the four main components of my model (2020 compute requirements, algorithmic progress, compute price trends, and spending on computation) I have spent the least time thinking about algorithmic progress.

...and bases the forecast on one paper about ImageNet classifiers.

I want to be clear that when I quote these parts about Cotra not spending much time on something, I'm not trying to make fun of her. It's good to be transparent about this kind of thing! I wish more people would do that. My complaint is not that she tells us what she spent time on, it's that she spent time on the wrong things.

----

The model in the report has many moving pieces. Most of them turn out to not matter much, including the ones Cotra spent the majority of her time thinking about.

Cotra encourages the reader to play around with an interactive spreadsheet and try changing the various assumptions. If you do this, you find that indeed, most of them don't matter much. I think we're supposed to draw the conclusion that the results are robust: they come out largely the same way across a range of assumptions.

But as we've seen, there are some assumptions that really do matter, like the Moore's Law limit. It's not a virtue of the analysis that it adds on all sorts of bells and whistles that don't matter. They just obscure the underlying argument, and confer a misleading impression of robustness.

I think my fundamental objection to the report is that it doesn't seem aware of what argument it's making, or even than it is making an argument.

My summary at the top was presented like an argument. It encouraged you to think about how Moore's Law might continue, and spelled out some of the implications. "X will do Y in the future, and that will cause Z." A simple story.

That same argument is at the core of Bio Anchors, once you prune away the bells and whistles. It's really just a story about how X will do Y in the future, and that will cause Z -- except that X, Y, and Z are surrounded by a crowd of other factors P, Q, R, S . . . and you have to work to pick out the story.

Bio Anchors doesn't tell you which factors play the deciding role in its argument. It sees itself not as making an argument, but as computing an estimate, where adding more nuances and side considerations can only (it is imagined) make the estimate more precise and accurate.

But if you're making an estimate about a complex, poorly understood real-world phenomenon, you are making an argument, whether you know it or not. Economists understand this, I think. That's why they spend so much time with simple stylized models, so they understand what basic claim they're making about the nature of the phenomenon -- the core dynamic, the "cast of characters," the X that does Y and causes Z -- before they start adding bells and whistles.

Your model is going to make an argument -- somewhere inside, implicitly -- whether or not you know what it is. And if you don't know what it is, you don't know whether it's any good.

#ai tag

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wildlyminiaturesandwich · 6 years ago

Note

Do you have pcos? or any kind of health problem that makes it hard for you to lose weight? I'm just curious, don't answer it if you don't feel comfortable

Ok so I got a couple messages asking this same thing, as well as people suggesting that “just lose weight and then try again”, so I’m gonna put a bunch of information (and I mean A BUNCH of information) under a cut here that explains everything and why “just losing weight” isn’t a solution nor is it the problem. Like, at all.

If you don’t want to read all of this, you really don’t have to. There’s a TL;DR at the bottom and I wouldn’t blame you for just scrolling straight there and skipping my rant lol

I don’t have PCOS, no, my weight is mostly a “side effect” of my mental health and years of trying different medications to help with that. Just in case some people aren’t aware, two of the most common side effects of anti-depressants are increased appetite and weight gain. That coupled with one of the two most common symptoms of chronic depression — lack of energy and motivation — means that over the years I’ve slowly put on weight.

Even though every doctor insists on telling me I’m overweight and need to lose weight as though I’m completely oblivious to my own body and such an idea as losing weight has never occurred to me before, I have in fact tried to lose weight many many times over the years with very little success no matter how healthily I ate and how much I exercised. The only time I have ever had success was back in my 20s when I switched to a gluten and dairy free diet to try to fix another issues I was having with my gut. This is why, in the past few weeks, Mr Sandwich and I have been slowly switching our diets to be gluten and dairy free.

BUT even though I am doing that, and exercising as much as I can with my limited energy, it’s not enough. I can lose weight, sure, but I can’t lose enough weight quickly (and safely) enough to be able to do IVF, which I’ll get to in a minute. So it’s not always as simple as “just lose weight”, everyone is different and despite what most people think, a lot of overweight people don’t chose to be that way. Why anyone would think that is beyond me, but a lot of people do and because of this you get people treating fat people as less than human, as though we’re not worthy of any kindness or sympathy because obviously we had to have done this to ourselves, right?

This is also why I get so annoyed when people equate being overweight to being unhealthy. The whole “overweight people are twice as likely to die early” bullshit is nonsense! Sure sometimes it’s the case, but not always. I am not medically unhealthy at all. Apart from being unable to conceive and my mental health issues, neither of which are a symptom or side effect of my weight, I am actually perfectly healthy. Over the past few years I’ve had every test anyone could come up with to try to find out why I wasn’t falling pregnant and that includes things like liver, kidney and thyroid function, cholesterol, diabetes and blood sugar tests, blood pressure, the list goes on. Everything everyone always associates with fat people, all of it was tested, and everything came back perfectly normal. I had a doctor literally say to me “If I hadn’t seen you in person, I would never have known you were overweight based on these results”, which just goes to show you how biased even doctors can be.

Warning: If you don’t wanna learn some interesting stuff about fertility and reproduction, don’t read any further.

So why am I trying IVF if I’m healthy?

Fun fact: When a woman talks about her “biological clock” ticking, it’s not even a joke; a woman’s biological clock is like a clock counting down from the moment she’s born… or maybe it’s more like an hourglass? Either way, unlike men, who can produce viable sperm from the time they hit puberty until the day they die, women have all the eggs they will every have in their entire life already tucked away in their tiny little ovaries from the moment they form as a fetus. That ovarian reserve starts at around 6-7 million follicles during the fetal stage, by the time that new baby girl is born that number has already dropped to 1 million, and by the time she hits puberty she’s only got about 300,000 left. Of those 300,000, only about 300-400 will be ovulated during her entire lifespan. That number obviously continues to decrease when a woman ovulates each month right up until they run out and that is when the woman will go through menopause, and there is no way to raise that amount either. Once the eggs run out, that’s it, there’s no more. Pretty grim huh?

By my age (35), a women with perfect reproductive health will have an AMH (Anti-Müllerian hormone, essentially an indicator of how many eggs you have) level of around 5.1 pmol/L (2.3 ng/mL) but for some reason, my ovaries seem to think I’m actually50. My AMH level is 0.3 pmol/L (0.1 ng/mL), which is considered EXTREMELY low and essentially what that means is I will never be able to conceive naturally. My only chance to conceive and carry my own biological child will be through IVF.

Now, it’s super important to note that low AMH has absolutely nothing to do with weight. There are a lot of different reasons that AMH levels can be low and they could be anything from hormone imbalance to a side effect of cancer treatments, from smoking to mumps. My hormones are normal, I’ve never had cancer or mumps, and I don’t smoke; in my case, it’s most likely due to constant and severe amounts of stress (like years and years of it). But seeing as there’s no medical way to test that, the cause of my low AMH has been deemed by my doctor as idiopathic (unknown). So while weight does have some affect on conceiving naturally, in my case it wouldn’t matter how much I weighed because my AMH level would still be low even if I wasn’t overweight.

In Australia, there are these wonderful things called Low Cost or Bulk Bill IVF clinics. At a private IVF clinic you’d be looking at about $10-15k (Aussie dollars) a cycle for IVF, but at a bulk bill clinic they can charge as little as $800! Unfortunately at these low cost clinics you’re not able to chose your doctor either, you just get whoever is available so that’s a problem too. But the way they’re able to keep costs low is a combination of Medicare rebates (Australia’s free health care system) and the fact that they don’t use full sedation during egg collection which costs a buttload of money because anesthetic. They use a combination of local anesthetic and twilight sedation, which means lower cost for the patient, it’s win win… unless you’re overweight. For reasons I have yet to figure out — because not a single clinic can come up with any reason every time I ask — most clinics demand you be under a certain weight before they’ll treat you. I’m not going to tell you my exact weight but it’s not anywhere near this stupid limit.

Another fun fact: This weight limit is non-existent in private clinics but I don’t have, nor could I get, $10-15k. The fertility specialist I spoke to yesterday also suggest bariatric (lap band) surgery as though that were an actual viable option. Like, listen lady, if I had the money for that (anywhere between $5-20k), don’t you think I would be using that to go to a fat-friendly private clinic instead of talking to your rude arse at a low cost clinic?!

This all brings me back to the TL;DR of it:

Here’s the problem I’m facing. A year ago when my AMH (egg supply) was tested it was 1.4 pmol/L (0.6 ng/mL), which was already very low then, but it’s dropped down to 0.3 pmol/L in a little over a year, so at that rate I’m going to run out of eggs and be hitting early menopause most likely before the end of the year. At 35 years old.

Merry Christmas to me.

This has nothing AT ALL to do with my weight but for some reason these IVF clinics have a weight limit and there is absolutely no way I can lose enough weight (safely and healthily) before I run out of eggs, hence why I’m so mad. Even if I had barbaric surgery it still wouldn’t be enough time! None of these stupid clinics give a shit about that, all they keep saying is “lose weight and then come back to us”, as though I have all the time in the world!

My only options now are to a) rob a bank and take my fat arse to a private clinic. b) rob a bank, get myself some bariatric surgery and take a buttload of speed to lose weight SUPER fast, and then take myself to a low cost clinic. c) rob a bank and use the money to buy a baby. Or d) continue to do as I’ve been doing and will continue to do regardless of what happens and that’s lose weight the safe and healthy way and run out of eggs while I’m at it.

Last fun fact of the post: All of this could have been avoided had my stupid GP tested my AMH levels 5 YEARS AGO when I asked him to! It would have been low then as well but not as low so I would have had more time AND back then I would have just scrapped in under the ridiculous weight limit!

/rant

#i'm sorry it's so long 🙁#nonsims #saviourhide #personal #Anonymous

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ksooandwoozi · 8 years ago

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Don't You Dare

Pairing: Reader x Taehyung (x Yoongi) Rating: I guess T? There's suggestive smut but it doesn't really delve into anything? Genre: Mostly Angst, Comedy, Hurt and Betrayal and all that jazz Note: Definitely going to have more chapters after this; it turned out longer than expected, although now that I've transferred it from my notes on my phone to Tumblr, it doesn't look as long as I thought. It was originally only supposed to be a drabble ////////////////////////////// "Don't you dare say it (Y/N)." Your best friend of four years tells you as you're about to open your mouth. "Don't you dare." He holds up a hand as he backs away slowly, a sad expression twisting his features. You look down, a feeling of rejection passing through your stomach yet again. How many times was it now? How many times had your best friend found himself another girlfriend in the past four years? You honestly couldn't keep track anymore. The pain from him not loving you back had already subsided, already turned into a dull ache that no matter how hard you tried, wouldn't go away. Taehyung keeps taking steps away from you, a wary look now resting in his gorgeous dark eyes. You had been about to tell him, about to confess your innermost feelings to him, but he had stopped you. You presumed that Jungkook had told him about how you felt due to the way he was acting; the maknae being the only other one who knew. "(Y/N) you have to understand." Taehyung says, his voice a whisper as he finally stops moving away from you. By now he's at least five feet away, the distance between you two seeming like it would never stop growing. You swallow the lump in your throat, opening your mouth quickly before Taehyung had another chance to stop you. "You know it hurt when I realized that you weren't in love with me. But nothing, nothing at all, could compare to the pain I felt when I watched you fall in love with her." You manage to say, sobs threatening to overcome you in any second. You just wanted Taehyung out, wanted him out so that you could collapse in a pile on the floor. You wanted to eat cartons of ice cream and binge watch sad romance movies on Netflix... not have to deal with the expression of hurt and confusion on your best friend's face. "(Y/N)..." Taehyung says softly, this time taking a step towards you, trying to comfort you. You shake your head however and back away from him; you didn't know if your broken heart could take it if he touched you, if he caressed your face and stroked your hair, the usual when you were upset. "Taehyung I want you to leave." You murmur, not meeting his eyes but already knowing what kind of expression was there. "No I need you to leave." You chance a glance up and wish you hadn't. Your best friend looks shocked and hurt, and you hated to be the cause of that. Why couldn't your heart have just picked out someone else? "(Y/N)-" Taehyung starts before you cut him off, your voice raising an octave higher than it normally did. "Taehyung please just leave." You say, the shrillness throwing you off. You sounded so weak, so sad, so helpless, so in pain. Your best friend tries to take a step towards you, in the exact opposite direction you wanted him to go, and that's when you lose it. "Taehyung just leave!" You practically shout, your chest heaving as you break down into a sobbing mess. You couldn't contain it any longer and it killed you, having him see you reduced to this. "Just go." This time the demand is a whimper, you clutching your knees to your stomach so that he was unable to see your face, a curtain of hair blocking his view. Taehyung looks like he's fighting an internal battle, an array of emotions and expressions flicking across his face before he leaves, this time not knowing how to comfort you, when your problem was him. You await an appropriate amount of time from when you hear your door close to start wailing, the realization hitting you full force now. Taehyung was happy. Happy with someone who wasn't you. Happy with a girl who made him smile and laugh and be himself. You wanted to be the only girl in his life that was able to do that. You keep on crying, letting out years of pent up emotions, and you get up and start to throw things around your small flat. Heartbreak was truly the worst feeling in the world, you think as you throw a set of hardcover books on the wooden floor. When you're finally done with your almost tantrum like state, you collapse, yet again, but this time in a heap on your bed. Your phone only had one notification from Taehyung, the only words being "I'm sorry." Your response to that message is to chuck your phone across the room, hoping it cracked and became broken, just like your heart. ///// Four days. Four days is the number of days you had ever gone without contact from Taehyung. It had been two years ago, when you had gone to visit your family in the states, you having forgotten your charger of all things at home. That had been the only incident in which you and your best friend hadn't had contact daily. Today, Friday, November 16th, the last time you had seen Taehyung, was two weeks ago. And it wasn't by his choice. You had chosen to ignore his calls, texts, and home visits, you when hearing his spare key fit into the lock of your apartment, diving into a closet or under your bed to hide. He would search the house calling your name, but when his search would yield nothing, he would just leave and send you a message asking where you were. You knew you were being selfish; Taehyung was your best friend as much as you were his and maybe you not having been there was really affecting him. You two went to each other for the smallest of problems. But, he had his girlfriend to keep him company. Surely you weren't needed as much as you had been in the past, you couldn't help but think of those bitter thoughts. After a more recent incident where Taehyung had come to your house, you decide it was finally time to go out and maybe have some fun. It had been two weeks since your heart had been broken and now it was time to go see if you could patch it back up, if only temporary, with a hookup. You dig a short, red dress out from the back of your closet, the tiny thing having been a 20th birthday present from your friend back in the states. You had never planned on wearing it due to the whole provocation of the ensemble. In other words, it wasn't usually your style. Pairing the outfit with a set of heels you wouldn't wish on your worst enemy, you dust your face with some light makeup, deem yourself presentable, and head out the door to a local club that you had visited maybe once or twice. The bass is thumping when you make your way into the area, strobe lights flashing, highlighting the skimpily clad girls grinding against toned guys. Clubs weren't really your thing, but going into a bar alone was just depressing so you had decided that this place was the better option of the two. You head to the bar immediately, needing alcohol in you as soon as possible if you were going to survive the night. Placing your hands on the counter to get the attention of the bar tender you take a glance around you, trying to set your sights on an attractive, young male that seemed around your age. Your eyes flick over the guy sitting next to you, his black hair and pale skin already standing out to you. You couldn't see his face, as he was turned in the other direction, but he looked familiar, going by his build alone. When you place your order is when the guy finally turns around, his eyes going wide when you sees you there. Min Yoongi. The name comes to your mind as soon as you meet eyes. He was one of Taehyung's roommates. You didn't really know all of them; only Jimin, Jungkook, and Hoseok. And among those three, you were only really friends with Jungkook. So you wondered what he could possibly be doing here. In the short amount of time that the two of you had shared together, you had put forth a hypothesis that he didn't seem like the one to go out and party at a place like this. He didn't seem like the type to go clubbing period. "(Y/N)?" Yoongi asks, a smile gracing his gorgeous face as he looks at you. "Fancy seeing you here." Your cheeks flush a little when he says your name, and you mentally scold yourself. You were not going home with your best friend's roommate. Not even when his roommate was one of the most attractive guys in this club right now. "Hey Yoongi." You say, taking a seat next to him as you wait for your drink. Crossing your legs at the ankles, you turn to face him. "What are you doing here? To be honest I didn't have you pegged as a clubbing sort of guy." He laughs and the sound is music to your ears. How could someone have such an attractive laugh? "You're right. I normally don't come to places like this, but the maknae and Jimin dragged me out. There was no way to say no." He gestures to the dance floor where you can make out Jungkook and Jimin dancing with a couple of girls. All of Taehyung's roommates were hot, if you remembered correctly, these three certainly being no exception. "Ah okay." You say simply, sliding a twenty dollar bill over to the bar tender as he hands you your drink. "What about you? I didn't really have you pegged as a clubbing type of girl." He repeats the question you had just asked, a grin on his handsome features. You smile and take a sip of the orange cassis in your hand before facing Min Yoongi, yet again. "You're right. I don't usually come here, but it's been a rough couple of weeks." You say with a sigh. "Trouble with Tae?" Yoongi asks, his dark eyes searching yours as he awaits a response. You almost flinch at the mention of your best friend but manage to keep it contained. "A little bit. We had a fight." You doubted Taehyung had told his roommates about the situation the two of you were currently in, so you assumed that Yoongi had no idea. "Yeah that's what Tae said. He mentioned that's why the two of you weren't hanging out as much. You're usually joined at the hip so for the longest time I thought you two were dating." Yoongi says simply, looking out at the dance floor as he says it. This time you do flinch and you're grateful that he wasn't looking at you when he had stated his thoughts. "No not dating." You say, your voice kind of tight. There's a silence for a small period of time before you abruptly stand up, Yoongi's eyes traveling to look at you once again. You muster up your courage before giving him a small smile. "Want to go dance?" You ask, knowing the chance was small, but still hoping that he would say yes despite the overwhelming odds. To your surprise he stands up, holding out an arm for you to grasp. "Of course. How could I say no to such a beautiful lady?" You loop your arm through his as he leads you to the dance floor, a small blush dusting your cheeks at his calling you beautiful. A sexy kind of song is playing, the people around you grinding against each other to the beat of the music. With the alcohol now coursing through your veins, you had to admit that you were a little more touchy-feely and a little more confident. You slide up right next to Yoongi, caressing his arms as you move them to your waist. He looks down at you, his eyes dark as he moves along to the beat with you. You've been on the dance floor for what seems like hours now, and the sexual tension between the two of you has been rising for quite some time now. You take an opportunity to turn away from Yoongi and grind yourself against him, earning a slight groan from the boy. He abruptly turns you around to face him, and then his lips are on yours. Yoongi's lips are soft and warm when they meet yours, his hands coming up to thread themselves in your hair. Within a few minutes, you're being pushed into a taxi, and it's a miracle that your clothes manage to stay on by the time you reach his apartment, let alone his room. You don't even stop to think about how Yoongi had six roommates, one being a boy whom you hadn't talked to or seen in two weeks. But soon enough, your clothes are in a heap on the floor, and the sounds of skin against skin, breathy moans, and the squeaking of the bed springs are the only things heard in the small room. Yoongi's lips kiss your body all over, his tongue swiping the places that his lips couldn't reach. You're slowly reaching your high as his thrusts get more erratic and then you're both simultaneously coming undone, him collapsing against you so that you're a sweaty entanglement of limbs. As he pulls you into him, his arms going to wrap themselves around your torso, you're hit with a feeling that this isn't something that you regretted. Usually with one night stands, they were something that people tended to be ashamed of, but after your night with Yoongi you couldn't say that you were. You fall asleep pretty easily after that, the relaxing rhythm of his heartbeat against your back being very soothing. ////// It's too soon when the morning light shines through the curtains in Yoongi's room and you check your watch in a slight fright. You didn't want to be late to work. You weren't late, but if you didn't get home right now to change and take a shower, you definitely were going to be. Disentangling yourself from Yoongi's warm embrace you go to slip on your undergarments, bending down to pick up your discarded dress with a little distaste. You did not want to put that back on. "You can take one of my shirts (Y/N) and a pair of sweatpants. They're in the bottom drawer of the dresser." You hear a slight murmur behind you and you're met with Yoongi, his eyes half open as he watches you. "Thanks Yoongs." You whisper going to the drawer and selecting a black t-shirt along with a pair of grey sweatpants. You throw your dress over your arm and pick up the pair of heels you had shed near the door last night. "You still have my number right?" Yoongi asks, sitting up in the bed, making sure the blanket was still covering him around the waist. You nod as you open his door to head outside, "Yeah. I'll text you tonight. Maybe we could go out for dinner or something later." Yoongi nods, a light coming to his eyes when he hears you say that. Maybe he was thinking that this had been just as great as you were thinking it had been. You give him a small wave before walking backward and shutting his door. You do a quick double check down the hallways to make sure no one was making their way towards you before silently making your way down the staircase. You make it to the kitchen without a sound and you see the front door right ahead of you. You were going to make it out of here without anyone seeing! As you're just about to open the door, a voice stops you. "(Y/N)?" Shit. You knew that voice. It belonged to a certain someone whom you had avoided and ignored for the past two weeks. "You were the girl Yoongi hyung was with last night?" You freeze, your hand halfway to the doorknob. You consider just booking it, but you knew Taehyung would follow you, tackle you even if he had to. You slowly turn to face him, hitching the short dress further up your arm. "Why does it matter?" You ask quickly, meeting Taehyung's eyes once before dropping yours. "It matters because you've been ignoring me for the past two weeks!And then come this morning I find out you just shacked up with one of my best friends when you were supposed to have feelings for me. What the hell (Y/N)?" Your best friend shouts, his doe brown eyes wide with emphasis. "Okay Tae. Lets back this conversation up a bit. You're saying I don't have a right to sleep with one of your friends because I'm supposed to have feelings for you? I mean have you not forgotten what happened two weeks ago? You bluntly rejecting me? For the girl you're in love with? Do you want me to keep pining after you when I know I can never have you?!" You practically shout, tears threatening to make their way down your cheeks. You had finally started to get over Taehyung but now, seeing him standing there in the flesh, his dark brown hair messy and askew with sleep, you could feel those feelings rushing back. No, you liked Yoongi. You were going to give you and Yoongi a chance. Taehyung had missed his shot a long time ago. You had given him plenty of chances, plenty of openings and besides did you really want to lose your best friend? Taehyung starts to make his way towards you but you quickly back away, your hand reaching for the door knob. You figured if you could manage to sprint down to the street and hail a taxi immediately, you would escape Taehyung and whatever hurtful thing he would have to say to you without meaning to. You had just twisted the door knob when he opens his mouth and speaks a mile a minute. "(Y/N) wait! Please wait." His voice has a twinge of desperation that makes you stop, makes you turn to face him. "What Tae?" You ask, almost exasperatedly. "(Y/N) I broke up with her. You can have me, you don't have to keep pining over me because I'm right here. You can have me." He whispers taking a final step towards you so that you're inches apart. And that is how in a matter of a night and two minutes, your whole life got flipped and screwed around. What the hell were you going to do now?

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supplementengine-blog · 7 years ago

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Herpes Blitz Protocol - Don't Worry It's 100% Tested

Herpes is an infection that influences the body for long haul. It is more typical than you might suspect it is. Herpes is caused by an infection. There are two sorts of infections that reason herpes.

Herpes is a contamination caused by HSV (herpes simplex infection). This infection influences the outer genitalia, butt-centric locale, mucosal surfaces, and skin in different parts of the body.

More About Herpes Blitz Protocol

Herpes is a viral ailment and a few people have the infection however they don't encounter the side effects of the illness. The basic side effects of this infection are rankles and torment while urinating. Mouth blisters are additionally an indication of herpes alongside ulcers. Till date, no cure has been found for herpes however there are distinctive treatment strategies utilizing home cures and restorative medications.

How Does Herpes Virus assault the body?

Herpes infection has its disease like different infections. It enters the body and after that it assumes control over your cells. Since herpes is a sexually transmitted malady, this infection is transmitted to you by means of somebody you are occupied with sex with. The thing about this infection is that it isn't murdered by the insusceptible framework.

As a matter of first importance, the infection enters the body and assaults the cells in the body.

It takes control of your body cells and begins utilizing the hardware in the cells for its own motivations.It repeats itself. At the point when show outside the body, the infection can't recreate since infections require a host to repeat in. along these lines, when the infection enters your body, it has its host and how it can begin to duplicate utilizing the apparatus of your cells.As the infection imitates, it increment in number and assumes control over all a greater amount of the cells.

You may ask why this infection does not slaughtered by the invulnerable framework like all other remote specialists that enter the body.

The purpose behind this is the infection stays escaped the resistant framework. As the safe framework can't 'see' this infection, there is nothing that it can do to shield you from the impact of this infection.

What is Herpes Blitz Protocol?

Herpes Blitz Protocol is a program went for curing herpes. The restorative medications are not fit for curing herpes in spite of the fact that they can treat it. Be that as it may, you are exacted with the illness for long. As indicated by the general population behind this program, the pharmaceutical organizations are concealing reality from the buyers on the grounds that there is a cure for herpes.

The motivation behind why these organizations are not acquainting this cure with the general population is for cash. These organizations are making billions of dollars every year for these pharmaceuticals and they don't need their business to go around presenting a cure. For whatever length of time that the general population are constantly purchasing pharmaceutical for treatment, the business is fit as a fiddle. In any case, on the off chance that they are cured, they won't purchase the medicines and that will put these organizations in misfortune.

How does Herpes Blitz Protocol Work?

Herpes Blitz convention is a venture of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious malady. The undertaking considers the couple of fixings that were found in Morocco. Utilizing these, the program goes for crushing herpes and curing the individual of this malady forever. The exploration has discovered that there is a switch in the infection itself that can be utilized to slaughter it. At the point when this switch is initiated, the infection quits recreating and is slaughtered in the long run.Right off the bat, the herpes infection is influenced by this cure. What happens is that the cure changes the DNA structure of this infection so the infection can never again make numerous duplicates of itself in the body.

Furthermore, the infection begins to lose its capacity to imitate or even survive. The infection is put to rest y exchanging on the 'off button' that is available in the infection itself.

In conclusion, the infection is presented to the resistant arrangement of the body. In this progression, the invulnerable framework assumes control over this infection and slaughters it like it murders whatever other remote specialist that ever enters the body.

Thus, this entire framework works by initially incapacitating the infection and after that presenting it to the safe framework. On the off chance that the infection was just put to rest, it could spring back to activity whenever once more. This is the reason it is vital to slaughter the infection totally and expel it from the body. This can just occur by the activity of the safe frameworks. This is the reason Herpes Blitz Protocol includes the working of our insusceptible framework.

Why utilize Herpes Blitz Protocol?

There are numerous reasons why you should utilize Herpes Blitz Protocol.Right off the bat, Herpes Blitz Protocol is for everybody. It doesn't make a difference how old or youthful you are. The program works for everybody and individuals from all age gatherings can exploit it.Besides, you can discover the cure in Herpes Blitz Protocol that you have neglected to discover in any therapeutic medication. The issue with these medications is that they don't absolutely cure the sickness. Additionally, they cost a considerable measure of cash and they neglect to give the outcomes.

The most unnerving part about restorative medications is that they have some cruel reactions on the body. This is the reason one should utilize Herpes Blitz Protocol for safe expulsion of herpes from the framework.In addition, Herpes Blitz Protocol works for the two sorts of herpes more white it is oral or genital. In this way, you don't have to discover diverse wellsprings of cure for various infections. Herpes Blitz Protocol alone is viable against the two sorts of infections.Herpes Blitz Protocol works for the two sexual orientations. You could be male or female and the program with work for you consummately,

To what extent does Herpes Blitz Protocol take?

Herpes Blitz Protocol does not set aside a long opportunity to work. In the event that you are experiencing indications of herpes, Herpes Blitz Protocol will evacuate these side effects in only 48 hours. On the off chance that you are planning to totally expel the illness from the body, Herpes Blitz Protocol will take only 19 days to free you of this contamination.This is a significant speedy technique for weight reduction. While restorative medications regularly neglect to help individuals regardless of to what extent they are utilizing it, this program works like enchantment and that too in a brief timeframe. This is the reason it is a famous decision among the clients and individuals who are taking a shot at herpes.

Where to Buy Herpes Blitz Protocol

You can purchase Herpes Blitz Protocol from the online site of the dealers. It is available in various structures for the simplicity and accommodation of the clients. The printed version is likewise accessible at an indistinguishable cost from the eBook. The cost of Herpes Blitz Protocol is $37. You can just submit you request on the site and after that you will be coordinated to the page to fill you data and make your installment. You can pay utilizing a VISA card or Master Card. You don't should be stressed over the data that you give to the site since your email address won't be shared by the site with outsiders. Additionally, you charge card data will be protected and you can shop from the site without agonizing over burglary.

Tribute of Herpes Blitz Protocol

Till now, over 64000 individuals have utilized Herpes Blitz Protocol and they have profits by it. These are every one of the general population who had been a casualty of this ailment for so long however did not have any cure. With Herpes Blitz Protocol, they found the cure they were searching for and that is the reason the item has such a significant number of positive surveys.

One of the client stated, ''I got herpes from my ex and I was excessively embarrassed, making it impossible to converse with anybody about it. I read up the side effects on the web and I was extremely terrified of how my life would have been currently. I was almost certain that nobody would need to be with me again and that influenced my heart to break. Anyway, I assembled up the mettle to really go to a drug store and get some information about it. He disclosed to me that there was no cure for this illness and I would simply need to take some medication for treatment.

I was in so much torment that I couldn't comprehend what to do. There were injuries all over the place and peeing was to a great degree agonizing. That is the point at which I found about Herpes Blitz Protocol Reviews on the web and I chose to pull out all the stops. When I got the program, I began utilizing it and the wounds gradually began blurring. There were no more breakouts. I don't know whether the infection is completely gone or not but rather I utilized the program for 19 days in a row and it has been 4 months now and I have not seen any indications of my ailment'.

Last Verdict on Herpes Blitz Protocol

Working without symptoms and in a characteristic way, Herpes Blitz Protocol is the response to the supplication made by numerous herpes patients. Presently, you don't need to stress over the infection demolishing your life or breaking your certainty. You can cure your herpes now and be as sure as consistently, making the most of your charming life without bounds.

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