#if there's a higher quality file that comes out i might b able to get a whole 2x2 set of him out

[yangjeongin]

HYUNJIN | 230913 • S-CLASS @ 2023 VMAS

[the-bjd-community-confess]

3D printing (will not be) lowering the cost of BJDs, if made available to print at home

To the anon about 3D printing and everyone else intersted in this matter, here a few points: a) yes, 3D printing will help severally improving the hobby - it already is. It's helping artists bring their ideas to life, especially ones that have a hard time working with the traditional medium to sculpt. b) I tried 3D scanning an MSD sized doll last week at a friend's workplace out of interest - they are too small to give a useable result.

Perhaps there are high quality scanners already capable of scanning details on such a small scale, but those are not that easy to get as of now. c) Resinsoul can sell at a lower price due to their location. Wages are significant different over there and they are kind of located in a country that 'sits at the source' of resources required, thus able to buy them at a cheaper price. Anyone located elsewhere, who are not feeling comfortable to outsource the casting to an asian land will pay much higher production costs due higher wages and higher material costs (import taxes, transport etc.).

d) I'll say this slowly, because apparently it has not been said often enough: With the exception of perhaps Volks and a certain recaster: There. ARE. NO. L A R G E R. COMPANIES. when it comes to BJD. Even those who have been around for 10+ years tend to be a small team, often even singular artists or two, at most around 10, if they are lucky. Look it up, the info has been provided time and time again by various ones. Stop thinking that each 'company' is a 50+ people factory.

e) Your argument of 3D printing making dolls available to more people and cheaper is - sorry the expression - absolute and utter bullshit. I can tell you aren't actually familiar with 3D printing and what it involves. For one, there are several types and materials and each one currently on the market that provides decent quality is already the cost of a less expensive brand (and those can print MSD sized parts at best and will take around 8 runs to get all parts printed at average, each which will likely take a day to finish printing, if you want to have a mostly smooth surface and less work after).

There are of course larger machines, but their price is higher as well. And that doesn't include the cost of electricty or materials yet. (Protection mask against fumes, gloves for handling, sanding and other tools for finishing - just to name a few.) Each of them requires a different type of file, which the maker of the 3D file might not even be albe to provide and a different type of preparation and different after care. The learning curve can be very hard depending on how quickly you take to it and you can end up with a lot of failures. Nevermind the amount of time it eats to figure out what went wrong and why and then needing to set it up all over again and give it another try.

You also need space in a well-ventilated area due to the fumes, noise and depending on what printer you go for. You also need a constant, steady energy source and most need a regular temperature around 15-21 degrees (minimum). Otherwise? Thanks for your hard work, wasted time and material, have fun starting over again, because the likelyhood for this to become a failure print is... very high. And NONE of them, not even resin printers, are on par with resin cast ones in terms of quality when it comes to the end result. If you got money to spare, go a head and buy one and see how it handles for example being dipped into a hot water dye bath.

Most common tools used to remove face-ups also tend to damage the material's surface. If it hasn't been properly cured it should be pointed that it's like slow poison. Worth it for a doll? Personally, I think not. I'm aware some people might just be happy with that kind of quality, perhaps won't even bother with sanding, but let me say it clearly again: Beginners who find it hard to afford e.g. a 300$ doll will not be helped at all with the existence and avaibility of 3D printers due the cost of aquiring a printer. And if you outsource the printing to one of the many services avaible by now? Well... You MAY end up saving... what? 50$? perhaps?

And that's likely to exclude shipping the prints to you and then still need to invest in sanding tools for the finishing if that is not included in the service and depending on what material/printing type you choose. (And needing to buy s-hooks and strings, silicon kips if you want those) I'm not saying 3D printing isn't awesome. I just think that your imagination how it can make BJDs more affordable and accessable is unfortunately far from the reality. This is not meant to discourage anyone from trying to learn it, because being able to sculpt and print even small accessoires for your dolls is A M A Z I N G, okay? But I don't feel comfortable putting this out there as a way to 'save money'.

As for your example with music: Sorry, but comparing something that needs a physical shape to work with something that does not, does not work at all. An artist can make music and distribute it digitally because it is 'sound'. The production happens once and that's all that is needed to make people able to enjoy it. If BJDs could be shared that way, everyone would be able happy just playing with some 3D models and putting digital clothes and styling onto them - like the game The Sims.

Most hobbyists however actually want a doll they can touch and this means production in a physical sense has to happen and that means production costs - least. Remember the artist put a lot of effort into this doll and deserves to be paid for that too? So you'd end up with needing to pay for: The file. The printer. The material. Tools. Electricty to keep the printer going. A PC to prepare the files for the printer unless they happen to come pre-prepared for the printer you have. At this point the initial costs would already likely be more than purchasing a cast doll.

In the long run? Yes, perhaps you'd end up saving, if you can make it work, but it would still require a large investation and dedication first. As for your ideal for this to make bjds cheaper? Not going to work unless you go for mass production and selling at only your production cost and shipping to those less fortunate, thus cheating the creator/artist out of the money for their work unless you or the buyer actually by the file each time. Which would result in higher costs again and go back to the original point, where you'd be close to the price of just buying a cast BJD, saving perhaps only on the shipping time.

~Anonymous

[unlovedaddict]

Low Ranking: How to Fix and Avoid (An Expert Guide)

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[longlivefeedback]

hey! so, i'm sure this is something that's been discussed, but i can't find any discourse on your blog. i'm a fic writer and NOTHING annoys me more than the "don't say anything negative" attitude toward fanfiction. if someone leaves a comment that says "i loved your fic but i'm curious as to why character didn't do [x] since it seems a little inconsistent..." or "loved it! just wanted to point out a couple small inaccuracies that most people won't notice but since i work in this field..." (1/?)

it shows me that the commentor was paying attention and thinking about my writing, and isn’t that the ENTIRE point of posting your writing online? i’ve run across quite a few writers who will criticise any criticism or less-than-effusive comments, and it just really, really annoys me. the main reason i think is bc i legitimately LOVE fanfiction—it’s my preferred thing to write/read over original fiction bc it allows me to focus on just exploring the characters since people are already(2/?)

familiar with them/the canon verse. it’s why i hate that it isn’t taken as seriously as original fic, and i really think this culture of “don’t engage unless you only have good things to say” is one of the reasons it just isn’t taken seriously. ofc, not saying that you should just point out all the flaws, but some polite, helpful concrit or probing questions in addition to praise?? makes me really happy tbh. idk maybe i just take it too seriously but (¾)

it REALLY bothers me, and so i wanted to read some debate on this matter from both sides — not just writers, not just readers. this my extremely long-winded way of asking: do you guys have any posts like this?? (4/4)

LLF response: Hi Anon! We do have some posts about commenting culture and a brief guide to supporting authors, as well as reblogs on a guide to reviews and an overview of fandom commenting. Assuming you’ve looked through those posts, the reason why you cannot find anything that addresses your specific concern (i.e. questions in comments bringing up inconsistencies or trying to understand why a character appears to be acting OOC) is probably because LLF has been primarily concerned with broad structural changes and feedback initiatives thus far and the topic you raise, while valid and important to feedback culture, is a bit too nuanced for the current focus of this blog.That being said, I think that your ask brings up some interesting assumptions and perceptions that are critical for fandom health and which I can give my personal opinion on under the jump.

Full disclaimer, the following is my (mod dragonling’s) personal opinion and interpretation of the ask.

1. i’m a fic writer and NOTHING annoys me more than the “don’t say anything negative” attitude toward fanfiction.

This to me is indicative of differing expectations for fandom. Let’s say that instead of fic writing, we’re all chefs (or people who make food) here. We each make a dish and now we want to share it with the world. Do you (A) take it to your friend’s house where they are holding a potluck celebration; (B) set up a stall at the state fair; or © enter it into a cooking/baking competition ala Chopped where 5 star judges and food critics will sample your food? Depending on where you take you food, you would expect very different reactions.

Generally speaking, you would probably want your friends at the potluck to thank you for bringing something and compliment you for how delicious your dish is. If you were still fine tuning your recipe, you could let them know and maybe they would be able to say one or two things they liked or didn’t like about it which you would file away for the evening, to be looked at for the next time you made something.

However, if you were at a state fair, even getting your dish looked at by the crowds of people milling around would be an achievement. If someone bought some of your food, that would be fantastic! If they bought it, took a bite, and then told you how tasty it was, even better! Those people that bought your food, went away, and then came back to tell you how much they enjoyed it or came back to buy some more and brought all their friends with them are heaven sent angels. You probably wouldn’t expect anyone to say anything negative about your food because even if you were still fine tuning the recipe, a state fair is neither the time or place where any sort of meaningful culinary discussion can really take place on a consistent basis.

The situation would be different if you were at a cooking competition. There, you would expect these food experts to pick apart your food. Maybe not steamroll and chew you out ala Gordon Ramsey, but even then if that’s what you were expecting and the kind of feedback you respond best to, then sign up for a competition he is judging at. Perhaps you don’t want to just be yelled at, but would actually like to be coached, then maybe enter a competition with more of a mentoring element versus cutthroat competition.

This all really boils down to knowing who your audience is and your expectations for them. I would say that posting to ao3 is closest to the state fair, and is why the “don’t say anything negative” attitude is perfectly acceptable and even encouraged. The fact that this annoys you indicates that there is some disconnect between what you really want and where you’re going in order to get it. I think that we can all agree that going to the state fair and expecting Gordon Ramsey to show up and tell you why your dish sucks is just…not going to happen. Even more, it’s something that shouldn’t happen. What if you were at the state fair to raise money for charity? No well meaning person is going to tell you that your food sucks and that you should do better and if they do, they don’t mean you well.

So, rather than get hung up on the “don’t say anything negative” attitude in fandom (which, I may add, is there and has been cultivated for a reason), take another look at your audience and your expectations. If you want criticism that is helpful and of good quality, go to an editor or join a writing group. If you want to give criticism, find someone to beta for where you can cultivate a relationship that is mutually beneficial. Don’t be a Gordon Ramsey walking around at the charity fair of home baked goods giving tips to the local families trying to raise funds to repair their schools. Be conscious of the fact that people write for different reasons, and that while some may be okay with great advice being shouted at them, for others, it is a nightmare. Be kind and don’t show up at the wrong party.

2. “i loved your fic but i’m curious as to why character didn’t do [x] since it seems a little inconsistent…” or “loved it! just wanted to point out a couple small inaccuracies that most people won’t notice but since i work in this field…”

I understand where you’re coming from, Anon, and the two examples you mentioned evoke an important point of why it is so difficult to give criticism online. Your questions attempt to illustrate how one might leave a comment that shows that the reader was paying attention and thinking about your writing, and from your ask, I can only assume that you would be thrilled to personally receive either of those comments. To assume that others would be similarly thrilled, however, is fallacious and a dangerous assumption. What works for you, may be hurtful to others. You pointing out “a couple [of] small inaccuracies” may be you being genuinely helpful, but to the author, it may come off as a reader assuming that they didn’t do their research, a reader being a know-it-all, or a reader missing the forest for the trees, especially if this is your one and only comment in a long multi-chaptered work.

Of course, things get even more nuanced when we consider context. Your comment about inaccuracies may be the best thing ever if the author specifically asked for guidance on this matter, or if you have a long standing relationship with this author and somehow commenting in ao3 is the way you beta for each other, or maybe this small inaccuracy is actually a big inaccuracy and you’re just trying to be super tactful about it… I could go on an on and on about it, but how you say things is often just as important as what you say, and in writing, where we do not have the benefit of verbal and visual cues, expressing what you mean becomes even more complicated.

Which is another reason why “don’t say anything negative” is the default. It’s harder to ruin someone’s day with only positive statements, especially when you don’t have the time or platform to really explain yourself and have a meaningful conversation with the author. This Anon’s view on concrit is worth pondering. If you don’t understand or agree with this sentiment, then the conversation we should be having is not “why doesn’t anyone leave concrit” but rather “what is concrit?” 

3. i’ve run across quite a few writers who will criticise any criticism or less-than-effusive comments, and it just really, really annoys me.

Going back to expectations and audiences; remember which party you’re going to. Also, what may seem like just a less-than-effusive comment to you, an outsider who stumbled upon this one comment thread, may actually be a long antagonistic war of words between author and commenter spanning many years, fandoms, and fics. I don’t know. It could happen. Maybe you just have a higher tolerance of trolls and criticism than the rest of us.

It’s certainly happened to me and Rose here on the LLF blog. Either we read the same ask differently or just have different reactions and ways of responding to things that tick us off. Even if we have a shared goal and have known each other for awhile, we’re both different people. It’s not reasonable for me to try to change Rose’s responses to match my own exactly. Just because you care about fanfiction so much doesn’t mean that everyone else does or should as well. If this is something that really truly annoys you and you are trying to see both sides of this issue, I think that you’re on the right track and want to encourage you to keep learning and thinking about it.

4. it isn’t taken as seriously as original fic, i really think this culture of “don’t engage unless you only have good things to say” is one of the reasons it just isn’t taken seriously.

I am not a literary expert, and cannot really opine on how fanfiction is viewed by traditional literature or whether a fantasy AU is better/worse than a published fantasy book or how they relate to the writings of Homer. I also am not sure what you mean by fanfiction not being taken “as seriously as original fic.” Certainly you take it seriously. I take it seriously enough to spend my free time on it, and I take fandom seriously enough that I am spending time I could be using to write fanfiction to help run this blog. If you mean that publishing houses will not pay any attention to a fanfiction story, I would agree because why would they? Fanfiction is, by definition, derived from original fiction. Publishing houses are after new and original content because copyright is a real thing.

Even then, let’s look at Fifty Shades of Grey. It’s Twilight fan fiction. Is it taken more seriously than Twilight? Why or why not? How does it compare to Harry Potter, or Pride or Prejudice? Reading and writing are such personal experiences that I hesitate to say that one piece of writing is inherently better than the other. Hence, I do not think that fan fiction’s audience who “don’t engage unless you only have good things to say” is a problem. To me, that’s like saying “anime isn’t as good as non-anime cartoons because people who watch anime don’t speak English.”

5. not saying that you should just point out all the flaws, but some polite, helpful concrit or probing questions in addition to praise…

Yes, agreed; and if this is what the author has asked for, please go ahead! However, please also remember that not everyone knows how to ask probing questions, give helpful concrit, or even be polite. Sometimes, they aren’t even trying to be rude. It just comes off as such. Maybe the commenter is having a bad day and can’t word right. Maybe the author is having a bad day and can’t read anything without their own personal negative bias clouding their perceptions.

It’s one of the things that we are trying to address at LLF so that these barriers are lower. It’s one of the reasons why some things (native comment templates) just will not work for AO3, because tone is hard to convey, nevermind that your audience probably numbers in the millions, each with their own personal biases and understanding of language. We know that even with giving kudos, people mean different things. Think about how difficult it is to convey sarcasm in writing. AO3 already receives flack for their kudos message, which is the way it is because can you come up with something better that will not tick off anyone? Maybe people want to be polite, maybe they want to be helpful, maybe they just don’t know how. We’re trying to change that and trying to give people the tools to help them comment: LLF Comment Builder, LLF Comment Project, in-line commenting (these tools are mostly focused on how to give positive comments because from the feedback we’ve gotten, people have a hard enough time doing that as is.)

But hey, if you want something for concrit or how to ask probing questions, don’t wait for us. Look up a good guide and reblog it. Encourage your followers to ask you questions about your writing. Write your own guide to commenting. Go. Be the change you want to see.

6. do you guys have any posts like this

So, after all that, LLF may not be the blog for you if you are interested in hearing as many opinions as possible about this topic. However, I would highly encourage you to check out @ao3commentoftheday, which has already hosted quite a few asks about this:

sometimes-i-dont-comment-because-im-a

actually-i-have-a-question-about-commenting

do-writers-like-constructive-criticism-in-reviews

about-the-leaving-only-glowing-praise-comments

about-concrit-i-dont-explicitly-discourage-it

its-not-about-wanting-concrit-its-about-wanting

1-with-concrit-i-think-the-question-is-not

Don’t forget to check the notes on those threads!

[michaelandy101-blog]

Search engine optimization Forecasting in Google Sheets

New Post has been published on https://tiptopreview.com/seo-forecasting-in-google-sheets/

Search engine optimization Forecasting in Google Sheets

Approach again in 2015, I revealed an article giving freely a free, easy, forecasting software, and speaking by way of use circumstances for forecasting in Search engine optimization. It was a fast, efficient technique to see if a change to your web site visitors is a few type of seasonality you’ll be able to ignore, one thing to have fun, or a worrying signal of visitors loss.

In brief: you possibly can enter in a sequence of knowledge, and it will plot it out on a graph just like the picture above.

5 years later, I nonetheless get folks — from former colleagues to finish strangers — asking me about this software, and most of the time, I’m requested for a model that works immediately in spreadsheets.

I discover this straightforward to sympathize with: a spreadsheet is extra versatile, simpler to debug, simpler to increase upon, simpler to take care of, and a format that persons are very aware of.

The tradeoff when optimizing for these issues is, though I’ve improved on that software from a number of years in the past, I’ve nonetheless needed to preserve issues manageable within the famously fickle programming setting that’s Excel/Google Sheets. Which means the template shared on this put up makes use of an easier, barely much less performant mannequin than some instruments with exterior code execution (e.g. Forecast Forge).

On this put up, I’m going to present away a free template, present you the way it works and tips on how to use it, after which present you tips on how to construct your personal (higher?) model. (When you want a refresher on when to make use of forecasting on the whole, and ideas like confidence intervals, discuss with the unique article linked above.).

Varieties of Search engine optimization forecast

There’s one factor I need to increase on earlier than we get into the spreadsheet stuff: the various kinds of Search engine optimization forecast.

Broadly, I feel you’ll be able to put Search engine optimization forecasts into three teams:

“I’m feeling optimistic — add 20% to this year” or related flat adjustments to current figures. Extra complicated variations would possibly solely add 20% to sure teams of pages or key phrases. I feel plenty of companies use this sort of forecast in pitches, and it comes all the way down to drawing on expertise.

Key phrase/CTR fashions, once you estimate a rating change (or sweeping set of rating adjustments), then extrapolate the ensuing change in visitors from search quantity and CTR information (you’ll be able to see an identical methodology here). Once more, extra complicated variations might need some foundation for the rating change (e.g. “What if we swapped places with competitor A in every keyword of group X where they currently outrank us?”).

Statistical forecast based mostly on historic information, once you extrapolate from earlier developments and seasonality to see what would occur if all the things remained fixed (identical degree of marketing exercise by you and rivals, and so forth.).

Kind two has its deserves, however if you happen to examine the likes of Ahrefs/SEMRush/Sistrix information to your personal analytics, you’ll see how exhausting that is to generalize. As an apart, I don’t suppose kind one is as ridiculous because it appears, but it surely’s not one thing I’ll be exploring any additional on this put up. In any case, the template on this put up suits into kind three.

What makes this an Search engine optimization forecast?

Why, nothing in any respect. One factor you’ll discover about my description of kind three above is that it doesn’t point out something Search engine optimization-specific. It may equally apply to direct visitors, for instance. That stated, there are a few causes I’m suggesting this particularly as an Search engine optimization forecast:

We’re on the Moz Weblog and I’m an Search engine optimization advisor.

There are higher methodologies out there for lots of different channels.

I discussed that kind two above could be very difficult, and that is due to the extremely non-deterministic nature of Search engine optimization and the commonly poor high quality of detailed information in Search Console and different Search engine optimization-specific platforms. As well as, to get an correct thought of seasonality, you’d must have been warehousing your Search Console information for a minimum of a few years.

For a lot of different channels, prime quality, detailed historic information does exist, and relationships are much more predictable, permitting extra granular forecasts. For instance, for paid search, the Forecast Forge software I discussed above builds in components like keyword-level conversion information and cost-per-click based mostly in your historic information, in a manner that may be wildly impractical for Search engine optimization.

That stated, we will nonetheless mix a number of varieties of forecast within the template beneath. For instance, reasonably than forecasting the visitors of your web site as a complete, you would possibly forecast subfolders individually, or model/non-brand individually, and also you would possibly then apply proportion progress to sure areas or construct in anticipated rating adjustments. However, we’re getting forward of ourselves…

How you can use the template

FREE TEMPLATE

The very first thing you’ll must do is make a replica (underneath the “File” menu within the high left, however automated with the hyperlink I’ve included). This implies you’ll be able to enter your personal information and mess around to your coronary heart’s content material, and you’ll at all times come again and get a contemporary copy later if you happen to want one.

Then, on the primary tab, you’ll discover some cells have a inexperienced or blue spotlight:

It is best to solely be altering values within the coloured cells.

The blue cells in column E are principally to verify all the things finally ends up accurately labelled within the output. So, for instance, if you happen to’re pasting session information, or click on information, or income information, you’ll be able to set that label. Equally, if you happen to enter a begin month of 2018-01 and 36 months of historic information, the forecast output will start in January 2021.

On that notice, it must be month-to-month information — that’s one of many tradeoffs for simplicity I discussed earlier. You possibly can paste as much as a decade of historic month-to-month information into column B, beginning at cell B2, however there are a few issues you want to watch out of:

You want a minimum of 24 months of knowledge for the mannequin to have a good suggestion of seasonality. (If there’s just one January in your historic information, and it was a visitors spike, how am I imagined to know if it was a one-off factor, or an annual factor?)

You want full months. So if it’s March 25, 2021 once you’re studying this, the final month of knowledge it’s best to embrace is February 2021.

Ensure you additionally delete any leftovers of my instance information in column B.

Outputs

When you’ve performed that, you’ll be able to head over to the “Outputs” tab, the place you’ll see one thing like this:

Column C might be the one you’re all in favour of. Remember that it’s stuffed with formulation right here, however you’ll be able to copy and paste as values into one other sheet, or simply go to File > Obtain > Comma-separated values to get the uncooked information.

You’ll discover I’m solely displaying 15 months of forecast in that graph by default, and I’d suggest you do the identical. As I discussed above, the implicit assumption of a forecast is that historic context carries over, except you explicitly embrace modified eventualities like COVID lockdowns into your mannequin (extra on that in a second!). The prospect of this assumption holding two or three years into the longer term is low, so although I’ve offered forecast values additional into the longer term, it’s best to preserve that in thoughts.

The higher and decrease bounds proven are 95% confidence intervals — once more, you’ll be able to recap on what meaning in my previous post if you happen to so want.

Superior use circumstances

You could by now have observed the “Advanced” tab:

Though I stated I needed to maintain this straightforward, I felt that given all the things that occurred in 2020, many individuals would wish to include main exterior components into their mannequin.

Within the instance above, I’ve stuffed in column B with a variable for whether or not or not the UK was underneath COVID lockdown. I’ve used “0.5” to signify that we entered lockdown midway by way of March.

You possibly can in all probability make a greater go of this for the related components for your enterprise, however there are a number of necessary issues to bear in mind with this tab:

It’s high quality to depart it fully untouched if you happen to don’t need to add these further variables.

Go from left to proper — it’s high quality to depart column C clean if you happen to’re utilizing column B, but it surely’s not high quality to depart B clean if you happen to’re utilizing C.

When you’re utilizing a “dummy” variable (e.g. “1” for one thing being energetic), you want to be sure to fill within the 0s in different cells for a minimum of the interval of your historic information.

You possibly can enter future values — for instance, if you happen to predict a COVID lockdown in March 2021 (you bastard!), you’ll be able to enter one thing in that cell so it’s included into the forecast.

When you don’t enter future values, the mannequin will predict based mostly on this quantity being zero sooner or later. So if you happen to’ve entered “branded PPC active” as a dummy variable for historic information, after which left it clean for future durations, the mannequin will assume you’ve branded PPC turned off sooner or later.

Including an excessive amount of information right here for too few historic durations will end in one thing known as “overfit” — I don’t need to get into element on this, which is why this tab known as “Advanced”, however attempt to not get carried away.

Right here’s some instance use circumstances of this tab so that you can contemplate:

Enter whether or not branded PPC was energetic (zero or 1)

Enter whether or not you’re operating TV advertisements or not

Enter COVID lockdowns

Enter algorithm updates that had been important to your enterprise (one column per replace)

Why are my estimates totally different to your outdated software? Is one in every of them unsuitable?

There’s two main variations in technique between this template and my outdated software:

The outdated software used Google’s Causal Impact library, the brand new template makes use of an Ordinary Least Squares regression.

The outdated software captured non-linear developments through the use of time interval squared as a predictive variable (e.g. month 1 = 1, month 2 = four, month three = 9, and so forth.) and attempting to suit the visitors curve to that curve. That is known as a quadratic regression. The brand new software captures non-linear developments by becoming every time interval as a a number of of the earlier time interval (e.g. month 1 = X * month 2 the place X will be any worth). That is known as an AR(1) model.

When you’re seeing a big distinction within the forecast values between the 2, it virtually actually comes all the way down to the second cause, and though it provides just a little complexity, within the overwhelming majority of circumstances the brand new method is extra real looking and versatile.

It’s additionally far much less prone to predict zero or detrimental visitors within the case of a extreme downwards pattern, which is sweet.

How does it work?

There’s a hidden tab within the template the place you’ll be able to take a peek, however the quick model is the “LINEST()” spreadsheet components.

The inputs I’m utilizing are:

Dependent variables

No matter you place as column B within the inputs tab (like visitors)

Impartial variables

Linear passing of time

Earlier interval’s visitors

Dummy variables for 11 months (12th month is represented by the opposite 11 variables all being zero)

As much as three “advanced” variables

The components then offers a sequence of “coefficients” as outputs, which will be multiplied with values and added collectively to type a prediction like:

“Time period 10” visitors = Intercept + (Time Coefficient * 10) + (Earlier Interval Coefficient * Interval 9 visitors)

You possibly can see in that hidden sheet I’ve labelled and color-coded plenty of the outputs from the Linest components, which can make it easier to to get began if you wish to mess around with it your self.

Potential extensions

When you do need to mess around with this your self, listed below are some areas I personally take into consideration for additional growth that you just would possibly discover attention-grabbing:

Each day information as an alternative of month-to-month, with weekly seasonality (e.g. dip each Sunday)

Constructed-in progress targets (e.g. enter 20% progress by finish of 2021)

Richard Fergie, whose Forecast Forge software I discussed a few instances above, additionally offered some nice recommendations for bettering forecast accuracy with pretty restricted further complexity:

Clean information and keep away from detrimental predictions in excessive circumstances by taking the log() of inputs, and offering an exponent of outputs (smoothing information might or will not be a great factor relying in your perspective!).

Regress on the earlier 12 months, as an alternative of utilizing the earlier 1 month + seasonality (this requires three years’ minimal historic information)

I could or might not embrace some or all the above myself over time, but when so I’ll be certain I take advantage of the identical hyperlink and make a remark of it within the spreadsheet, so this text at all times hyperlinks to essentially the most up-to-date model.

When you’ve made it this far, what would you prefer to see? Let me know within the feedback!

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[dipulb3]

Anker Nebula Solar Portable projector: More white dwarf than supernova

New Post has been published on https://appradab.com/anker-nebula-solar-portable-projector-more-white-dwarf-than-supernova/

Anker Nebula Solar Portable projector: More white dwarf than supernova

The Anker Nebula Solar Portable is a 1080p projector with a built-in battery and Android TV. It’s a complete package that lets you enjoy movies and TV with a huge image just about anywhere. You can even use it as a Bluetooth speaker. If this sounds vaguely familiar, it’s because it’s similar to another Nebula projector, the Mars II Pro, which we reviewed a few months ago. The Mars II Pro is our favorite portable projector overall and while the Solar has its (ahem) bright spots, it’s just not as good.

Like

Sleek, compact design

1080p resolution

Built-in battery lasts 3 hours

Don’t Like

Fairly dim

Mediocre contrast

Android TV is wonky

On paper, the Solar Portable addresses two of the issues we had with the Mars II Pro: resolution and its app store. The II Pro is only 720p, and uses a “curated” Google experience called Aptoide. Unfortunately, fixing those two problems comes with decreased light output. No projector this size is particularly bright, but the Solar is about 40% dimmer than the Mars II. Android TV beats Aptoide, but it still has some quirks that mean you might be better off attaching a streaming stick anyway. Yes, that flat design is unique, but Anker’s own Mars II Pro is a better choice.

Little Anker Nebula Solar Portable projector, big pictures

See all photos

Basic specs

Native resolution: 1,920×1,080 pixels

HDR-compatible: Yes

4K-compatible: Yes

3D-compatible: No

Lumens spec: 400 ANSI

Zoom: No

Lens shift: No

Lamp life (Normal mode): 30,000 hours

The Solar accepts HDR10, but is not HDR. It accepts 4K, but is not a 4K projector. Since this projector is incapable of actually displaying these higher-resolution and high-dynamic-range signals, their inclusion seems more like something to beef up a features list on a website than anything else.

There’s no lens shift or zoom on the Solar, but neither is expected in this price range. There’s autofocus, however, which works pretty well. A pivoting foot on the bottom tilts the front of the projector upward for a bit more flexibility in placement.

There’s a claimed three hours of life from the 20,000-mAh battery. This is a bit odd since the brighter Mars II Pro has a smaller battery and yet the same amount of play time.

Speaking of brightness, Anker claims 400 lumens. I measured about half that. The Mars II Pro had a claimed 500, and I measured over 300. No projector in this size and price range is very bright, but side by side the Mars II Pro’s picture looks significantly brighter, which allows it to look better on bigger screens.

You can use the Solar as a Bluetooth speaker. The two 3-watt speakers sound pretty good, which is always a bonus in a portable projector. They’re not as loud as the Mars II Pro’s dual 10-watters, however.

If you want to download some content to watch offline, there’s 8GB storage.

Geoffrey Morrison/CNET

Connectivity and convenience

HDMI inputs: 1

PC input: No

USB ports: 2

Audio input and output: No

Digital audio output: No

Wi-Fi: 802.11a, b, g, n, ac

12-volt trigger: No

RS-232 remote port: No

MHL: No

Remote: Not backlit

The Solar’s HDMI input is capable of accepting HDR and 4K, but since the projector is neither, this is a six-line highway connecting two small towns with no cars.

The USB-C connection is for charging, and included with the Solar is a fast-charger you could use for your phone or tablet when you’re not using or charging the projector. The other USB connection can accept files or charge a streaming stick. The power rating isn’t specified, but I was able to get a streaming stick running on it, so it should be enough.

I like the Android TV app store but unfortunately some apps, like Vudu, would only send the standard-definition versions of their content. This is disappointing, to say the least. It makes the resolution of the projector less relevant. Others, like Disney Plus, Amazon Prime Video and Hulu looked fine, however. 

Then there’s Netflix, which requires several steps to get installed on the Solar. You need to install the Nebula Manager app, which then allows you to download the mobile version of the Netflix app. To watch Netflix after you install it, you need to go to the Manager app and then Netflix. Which, even after all those steps, looks exceptionally soft. Because it’s the mobile version, it also means it’s not designed to work with a traditional remote, so you need to use the Nebula Connect app on your phone to navigate. 

These issues spoil the goodness of built-in Android TV to a certain extent, but as I mentioned an easy solution is attaching an external streamer. 

Geoffrey Morrison/CNET

Picture quality comparisons

The Mars II Pro and the PH30N are both direct competitors to the Solar. To compare the three I ended up using a mix of internal apps, external streaming sticks and a Monoprice 1×4 distribution amplifier due to the different resolutions of the projectors, and the fact that the Solar accepts 4K (and for some frustrating reason that became the default when connected to the Monoprice). I viewed everything on a 102-inch 1.0-gain screen.

The most obvious difference was light output. The Mars II Pro was easily the brightest, followed by the Solar and the LG. Brightness is not the only important factor in a projector’s image quality but it’s a huge part. Not only does it determine how compelling the image is overall, but it also determines how large an image you can create that’s still watchable. This is one of the reasons I liked the Mars II Pro: It’s very bright for its size and price. The Solar’s picture looks dim in comparison, and the LG’s is the dimmest of the three. 

Geoffrey Morrison/CNET

Contrast ratio is poor across the board compared with something like the BenQ HT2050, but that’s par for the course. No inexpensive projector has a good contrast ratio. The Solar is technically better than the Mars II here, at 407:1 compared with 354:1, but that’s too close to see even side by side and is barely outside the range of normal measurement error. This low contrast ratio is fine on the Mars II, as it’s relatively bright, but on the Solar it means the image is flat. Not fully washed out, but it doesn’t impress either. The LG is lower still, but again, it’s all in the same ballpark.

With the added distraction of its undefeatable soap opera effect, I put the LG aside and concentrated on the two Ankers.

Fan noise on the Solar is far quieter than the Mars II, which is welcome when you’re sitting close.

While I welcome the switch to Android TV over the troublesome Aptoide store, there’s a glaring issue: HD. With some apps the content you get is SD-only. So what then is the point of the Solar’s 1080p resolution? This could be an Android/Google issue, but it doesn’t really matter where the problem is, the result is that the easiest way to get content on the projector means taking a hit in picture quality. 

Using an external streaming stick the extra detail is apparent. After you turn down the sharpness control, that is, which is set extremely high out of the box (as usual, massive amounts of edge enhancement mask actual detail). Now it’s the Mars II Pro’s turn to look soft, lacking fine detail on things like hair and beards. However, the Solar’s greater resolution, even when configured correctly, is not enough to win out over the Mars II Pro’s better brightness.

Geoffrey Morrison/CNET

Conclusion

The adage goes “Two steps forward, one step back.” In this case, it’s more like two steps forward, two slightly smaller steps back. With their huge images, projectors certainly see a big benefit from greater resolution, so the Solar’s 1080p should be an obvious improvement over the Mars II Pro’s 720p. But with SD internal apps, that improvement is negated. Worse, the lower brightness means its image is far less compelling. The bigger battery seems good on paper, but claimed viewing time is roughly the same. Even the Solar’s speakers are less powerful.

All that, combined with a higher MSRP, and I’m not sure what the Solar has to offer over the Mars II Pro. That projector is a little gem, and the Solar is left to play catch-up.

[hakelelius91]

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You re good at being you. We re good at your insurance. We re looking out for your interests. And while you may be at the most careful to find the policy that protects your home, your car, or your belongings, don t hesitate to give us a call. We’re here to help, and we do. If you do not have home insurance, it is a bad idea. Insurance agents know that homeowners are not covered in case of a critical incident. A loss that was caused by flooding is not covered. Even when an insurance company will cover damages, they do not provide the benefits you’re entitled to because of your policy s exclusions. will protect the house s value and financial security. Most home insurance policies cover your liability to your home and the properties it occupies. They will pay for any legal claims that may arise if you are sued (and your attorney may make sure that they can do the rest). Home insurance policies differ in what constitutes . They include coverage for loss of use because of non-tangible.

Progressive Insurance review 2020: car, home and renters

Progressive Insurance review 2020: car, home and renters in NJ. You can get cheap NY car insurance rates by comparing multiple quotes at once. Insurance costs vary across insurance companies, so it pays to shop around and compare New York car insurance rates on Compare.com. It s not easy to find NY car insurance rates for multiple companies, so compare quotes online. The best way to find NY car insurance rates is to get multiple quotes from different companies and through Insurify. Also, always check with your insurance company to see if their coverage will be cheap. The NY State of NY car insurance minimums are generally 25/50/20 and offer: In New York, the minimum is 25/50/10, but you may want to purchase more coverage in order to be closer to the higher average. Your car insurance will also contribute toward your insurance premium, so it’s possible you could end up paying more than you would like. When calculating the average insurance cost for a single New.

Elephant Insurance: Car, Home & Renters

Elephant Insurance: Car, Home & Renters, Boat, Motorcycle, Boat and Vibe. Please remember that you are only making a small deposit to use the car quote. Car and renters in a rental complex are going to be very expensive for the lowest coverage. We ll get you a car quote that is based on what your household can afford to pay over the course of 30 days. If the minimum coverage is only a few thousand dollars we are going to give you a discount for your car. When you apply you will be making a monthly deposit of $25, but we have a separate discount so you will get the exact rate in just a few weeks. In some areas there are many factors to consider. The company that covers you has had a bad claim past. The car you are renting is highly underinsured. When you are an insurance agent you shouldn t be at fault. This could happen within six to 12 months of having a collision. If you are not at fault we have a.

Homeowners Insurance

Homeowners Insurance CostPer MonthTop 25 Insurance DealsCar Insurance CostPer MonthTop 25 Insurance Dealers Insurance CostTop 50 Car Dealers Insurance CostTop 50 Dealer Insurance CostTop 25 Insurance Dealers Insurance CostTop 50 Sale & Indemnity Dealers Insurance CostTop 25 Dealers Insurance CostTop 100 Insurance Plan RatesTop 100 Car Insurance Dealers Insurance Cost1. Call us at to make changes to your life insurance policy. Helpful life insurance agents, who can assist you in servicing your policy, are just a phone call away. For all other policies, call or log in to your current , , or policy to review your policy and contact a customer service agent to discuss your jewelry insurance options. Purchased Mexico auto insurance before? With just a few clicks you can your insurance policy is with to find policy service options and contact information. In Missouri, we offer affordable health insurance to all residents of the Blue Bell on Blue Jay Rd. and the Columbia corridor. From St Louis to Columbia,.

Homeowners Insurance Facebook LinkedIN YouTube Flickr

Homeowners Insurance Facebook LinkedIN YouTube Flickr  � � rawdownload � � � � externalToEVA�quickShip � Discussion All in all, my car insurance rates are a little high. But overall, my rate will not be so low for a small amount of coverage. I do not understand how you make this decision… If you want to get a car, you’ll need to know whether there’s a good value for you. At the same time, it’s a.

What does my homeowners insurance cover and not cover?

What does my homeowners insurance cover and not cover? Here is our guide to the best companies for personal insurance policies. The main purpose of your home insurance policy is for your home, belongings and your personal liability - whether you have an extensive policy in place or . Here is a list of the most important things about our policy: Insurance companies often offer additional coverages. It’s important to know some of these coverages, and how to choose what policy you want. A number of things can impact your insurance policy, such as loss of use (LANSING, MI). If you have multiple of the coverages of a policy or need to report a claim. This helps you know how much your policy covers, just because you don’t have to report claims. What does homeowners insurance do not cover? The best thing to do when you are shopping for your home is to ask your insurance company. They will explain the many ways to improve your home. They will say that if your homeowners policy is at least as high as the.