#i'm excited to see what happens this silly season. lewis rly started us off well and the season hasn't even begun yet

[roscoehamiltons]

Silly Season 2024 Predictions

aka predicting how the grid will look for 2025:

red bull: max verstappen, daniel ricciardo

mercedes: george russell, fernando alonso (or alex albon, if fernando remains at aston martin)

ferrari: lewis hamilton(!!!), charles leclerc

mclaren: lando norris, oscar piastri

aston martin: lance stroll, yuki tsunoda (or fernando alonso, if he doesn't go to mercedes)

alpine: esteban ocon, pierre gasly

williams: kimi antonelli, alex albon (or valtteri bottas, if alex goes to mercedes)

visa cash grab rb: liam lawson, sergio perez (or yuki tsunoda, if he doesn't go to aston martin)

sauber: carlos sainz jr, nico hulkenberg

haas: ollie bearman, kevin magnussen (or zhou guanyu, if kevin retires)

thoughts, explanations (and a lot of babbling) under the cut:

red bull: maybe i'm delulu for thinking daniel to red bull will still happen lol but it makes perfect sense on paper-- daniel's already familiar with the team and works well with them, he has support from the higher ups, he's a marketing dream, he has a similar driving style and preference to max...

also i know there have been rumours about alex going to red bull again but i don't think he'll do it in the end.

mercedes: i want it to be fernando that replaces lewis bc it would bring the most chaos and drama lol, but it's also a decision that actually makes sense? swapping a world champion with another world champion, and one that isn't likely to want to stay long term (5-10 years)? i guess this is dependent on how both mercedes and aston do this year but 🙏 pls make it happen lol

alex is my second choice for the seat if fernando doesn’t take it. i started making my predictions before james confirmed that alex was signed to williams for 2025, but even with that news, i still think it's a possibility he could go to mercedes. there's been so many whispers in the press about alex wanting to either leave williams or getting offers from top teams, that i can't help but think that alex is trying to gun for a top seat.. and mercedes is his best choice for a top seat imo. not to mention that james did say that he wouldn't stop alex from leaving if he wanted to, and of course the ties with mercedes that james and williams have... it would be easy for them to do some negotiations and make it happen. also i'm sure that george would put in a good word for alex, if alex was interested.

also some honourable mentions, because there's a lot of possibilities to consider: everyone is talking about kimi antonelli and mercedes and i do think that they're going to try and push him into f1 as soon as they can.. i just don't know if they'll take the risk of putting him in the merc seat right away. i'm really interested to see how he does in f2 either way-- if he's as good as everyone says then the results will speak for themselves. i think esteban is a good option too; he's a solid driver (and underrated imo), and more importantly he has ties to merc and toto. if merc wants a more short term option then carlos is a good choice, though it's more likely he would go to sauber. as for mick, i don't think that he's merc's first (or even second or third) choice for the seat, unfortunately for him and the mick girlies. lastly, this one is a bit random but nico hulkenberg also came to mind as a solid short term option (plus, he's german).

ferrari: still can’t believe lewis is going to be driving for them.

mclaren: no notes, very solid pairing.

aston martin: i think the lineup will stay the same if fernando doesn’t want to move to mercedes. i suppose there’s a chance that the rumours about lance going to wec could be true but we will see.

if fernando does go to mercedes then yuki is probably the most obvious choice as his replacement. i also think it’s in yuki's best interest in the long term to leave the red bull family, and this would probably be the best opportunity to do so.

i was actually initially considering checo as the driver to replace fernando — they have history after all, and checo seems to love the team. however, thinking about it, 2023 really took a hit to his reputation as a driver and I don’t know if aston would want him back anyways? i think checo would absolutely reach out to them though if the seat opens up, i think he’s going to try and stay on the grid if it's possible.

alpine: i think both will stay, but if one was to leave it would probably be este (to mercedes?) rather than pierre. if he were to go then jack doohan would be the likely replacement, maybe victor martins if his results in f2 are good.

williams: like i said earlier, i think mercedes is going to try and get kimi into f1 asap, even if he doesn't win f2, and aside from merc itself, williams is the most likely option for that to happen. alex will stay if he doesn’t get the mercedes seat—the supposed red bull offer doesn't start until 2026 and i don’t think he would break his contract to go to aston or alpine.

as for who would replace alex if he does go to mercedes, i would love for it to be valtteri. i stole this idea from @velvetsainz actually, but the more i think about it, the more i like it... the idea of valtteri and james on the same team again tickles me and valtteri is a fantastic mentor (as evidenced by his relationship with guanyu). also i'm fairly certain that toto is back on valtteri's management team again so i can see toto mentioning valtteri as an option for williams in their negotations for the hypothetical alex to mercedes move. is this likely this is to happen, idk, because valtteri did pick sauber over williams in 2021 for a reason but a girl can dream lol

visa cash grab rb: this one was the one i probably struggled with the most ngl.. i think liam is definitely going to be in f1 in 2025 (and deservedly so) but the question of who's going to be in the other seat.. the three main options would be yuki, checo and daniel (if daniel remains at visa instead of moving up, either checo stays at red bull or yuki is the one getting promoted). i originally had the lineup as yuki and liam (and checo at aston martin) but ended up switching yuki and checo around in the end. if checo does end up retiring at the end of this year and yuki goes off to aston then i'm not sure who would replace him..maybe ayumu iwasa? i looked at their list of juniors and am not really familiar with anyone besides him tbh

sauber: this one pains me because i'm a huge fan of both valtteri and guanyu, and they're actually my favorite pairing, in terms of overall vibes and personality... but i would be (very pleasantly) surprised if they both manage to stay at sauber next year. i think it's a given that carlos is going to go to sauber now that he isn't with ferrari, especially with his ties his dad has to audi. i also think sauber/audi would want to start preparing for 2026 and they would also want a german driver to drive for them, hence nico hulkenberg (plus the rumours that they were interested in hulkenberg last year, but ended up renewing guanyu instead).

there's a chance that one of the current drivers could stay, which in that case it would likely be valtteri (with carlos as his teammate, rather than nico). they could also promote theo pourchaire to f1, but i think it's likely they would stick to established drivers, especially during the first couple of years that audi settle in.

haas: the new haas tp has spoken very highly of ollie and with the amount of free practice sessions they have scheduled for ollie this year, it wouldn't surprise me if they're trying to get him on the grid. i know some people think that kevin might retire after this year, but i think they would like to keep one of the current drivers since the last time they had two new drivers didn't go well 😬. on the chance that kevin does end up retiring, i think guanyu is a good shout for a replacement. it might seem a bit random but he's a consistent driver who rarely crashes and more importantly, brings a lot of money and sponsorship, which haas needs.