#i mean they can technically hit in the winter... but the likelihood is way low

[bunnyb34r]

I wanna watch Twister now agdgdgdg I think we have it on DVD I'm gonna look after I'm no longer yucky

[georgiagassavings]

Texas Facing High Energy Hurricane Season

New Post has been published on http://www.texaselectricityratings.com/blog/2020/05/08/texas-facing-high-energy-hurricane-season/

Texas Facing High Energy Hurricane Season

Stormy weather is on the way! While Texas electricity customers could likely experience power outages, they should prepare for much worse this summer.

Prepare Now for a Busy 2020 Hurricane Season

The 2020 hurricane season will officially begin one month from now on June 1. And since this year’s winter was one of the warmest in North America without the help of an El Niño, Texas residents might see the impact of at least one tropical storm this summer.

As if Covid-19 wasn’t enough to contend with…

The annual hurricane season spans the period from June 1 to November 30. However, tropical storms can develop outside those months with some as early as January and others as later as December.

Though the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) National Hurricane Center doesn’t release their annual hurricane forecast until the end of May, several other hurricane forecasts come out each April. These are released by meteorological researchers at the Department of Atmospheric Science Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, Accuweather, Topical Storm Risk at the Department of Space and Climate Physics at University College London, and the Weather Company.

Hurricane Predictions, 2020

NOAA Prediction CSU Prediction Accuweather Prediction Weather Co Prediction TSR Prediction Seasonal Average 1981-2010 Number of named storms (winds 39 mph+) N/A 16 14-18 18 16 12 Storms becoming hurricanes (winds 74 mph+) N/A 8 7-9 9 8 6 Major hurricanes (Cat. 3, 4 or 5, winds 111 mph+) N/A 4 2-4 4 3 3

  Colorado State released its annual hurricane forecast back on April 2 saying they expect “above-normal activity”. In addition, they stated, “We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.” They also added there is a 44% chance for one major storm to come ashore along the Gulf coast stretching from the Florida Panhandle all the way to Brownsville, TX.

Accuweather predicts an “above-average activity” and predicts 2-4 impacts on the U.S. coast.

Weather Co.  sees a season “more active than usual” and adds the dire warning that “there is still some upside to these numbers, and that a ‘hyperactive season’ like we had in 2010 and 2017 is still in play.” The 2010 hurricane season saw 19 tropical storms with 12 becoming hurricanes. The 2017 hurricane season spun up 17 tropical storms, 10 of which became hurricanes and included major storms Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate.

Tropical Storm Risk. com (TSR)  calls for “above-norm activity” and that there may be more late-season season storms, noting “environmental fields in August-September 2020 that are more favourable for Atlantic hurricane activity than thought previously. ”

Very Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

So, the consensus see an active if not very active storm season ahead: 14 to 18 tropical storms with at least 7 becoming full sized hurricanes, and 2 to 4 of those will be major. Storm ferocity aside, with these numbers it’s safe to say that Texas electricity customers could likely experience power outages related to at least one of these storms this summer.

It’s important to bear in mind that the Seasonal Average (1981-2010) for tropical storms is 12 with 6 becoming full sized hurricanes. But like any weather forecast, conditions can change. For example, the 2019 hurricane season was originally forecast to be near-normal. It started out quiet with only two storms in spite of a very warm Atlantic. It stayed quiet only until August 8 when the El Niño faded out. That brought an almost-sudden change within one week when storms began rising out in the eastern Atlantic and Caribbean. By November, there had been a total of 16 tropical storms, 5 of which were hurricanes, and 3 of those major ones.

So why so many hurricanes expected this year?

Why El Niño Affects Atlantic Hurricanes

The key to the sudden eruption of storms last year was that while the Atlantic was full of very warm water, the El Niño early last summer produced enough puff cause wind shearing in the western Atlantic. However, once the El Niño faded out, the storms came quickly. During the few storms that made landfall in the US, some residential electricity customers in the southeastern US went without power for days.

This year, there’s no El Niño at all.

El Niño, or El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as it’s technically known, occurs in the Pacific Ocean when a layer of warm water that is normally west of the international date line shifts eastward at the equator toward South America. The warm water warms the atmosphere and shifts the Walker Circulation eastward. When the Walker Circulation shifts eastward, it increases the likelihood of down-rushing wind shears over the western Atlantic and Caribbean —right into the cradle of Atlantic hurricanes. Hurricanes operate by moving warm, moist air up through their center but they need calm winds to stay organized. El Niño wind shears blow vertically across their rotating structure. This disperses their heat until the hurricane falls apart. It’s almost like standing over a candle and blowing it out.

Why No El Niño This Year?

Generally, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the ENSO monitoring zones roughly need to be consistently .5°C above average or higher to start affecting atmosphere circulation. This year in the Nino 3.4 region (about mid-Pacific), SSTs have been consistently above-normal since October but fluctuating between .2 and .9 Celsius above normal (“bubbling” about .5°C). However, all that fluctuation may have missed linking up with Pacific wind patterns that typically cause the shift into an El Niño.

Instead, we have what’s called ENSO Neutral (or “La Nada”). During summer, La Niña and ENSO Neutral conditions can shift the Walker Circulation westward so that instead of wind shear blowing down in the western Atlantic, there’s more likely to be little vertical wind shear and lots of nice, calm air— which is the very stuff hurricanes thrive on.

Forecasters are also predicting that this current ENSO neutral condition could go cold in the autumn and change to a La Niña. And since that will affect your Texas electricity usage, we’ll take that up later.

How Warm Water Affects Hurricanes

The second factor at work is that there’s LOTS and LOTS of warm water in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the tropical Atlantic. The MDR spans the tropical Atlantic Ocean from west Africa to the Caribbean. When sea surface temperatures (SSTs) get above 80°F (26.5°C) it creates a dangerous bath water. The combination of heat and evaporating sea water rising into the air pulls in more air and heat behind it, increasing the potential for tropical storm formation.

Current Atlantic basin SSTs between the equator and north into the Gulf of Mexico are above-average for this time of year, running about 78° to 80°F. There’s much warmer water off the coast of west Africa stretching west to the Caribbean. Just off the U.S. east coast, SSTs are in the 70s. NOAA’s Global Climate Report for March said that Atlantic sea-surface temperatures were at record-warm levels.

—And it’s only May.

Considering the effects of so much warm water in the Atlantic MDR and the low likelihood of strong wind shearing in the western Atlantic, there seems a high probability that there will be an above-average Atlantic hurricane season and that at least one storm will hit the U.S.

Where, when, and what strength that storm will be is impossible to say. But, as the annual warning goes, it only takes one tropical storm to cause a tragedy. So, it’s best for Texas residents to get prepared.

How To Prepare For A Hurricane

For coastal residents, an above average hurricane season means there’s a good chance they will need to evacuate at some point this summer. That’s especially true for Texas and other Gulf coast states where storm surges have a history bringing flood waters 10 to 24 feet deep. Because both storm surge and rising high-tide levels are exerting increasing impacts on coastal flooding events, NOAA has unveiled some useful new prediction tools this season, including a map showing expected storm surge inundation values for the United States Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

For those who live further inland, high winds, tornados, and flooding are all potential dangers. Flash flooding is extremely dangerous in areas like central and west Texas and in the Appalachian states where rain-fall in steep-sided river valleys can flood entire towns in moments. That’s why we want all Texas energy customersto know what to do this hurricane season.

How Can I Prepare for Hurricane Season?

Hurricanes and other kinds of powerful storms can hit any state in the U.S. There was even a Super Derecho in 2009 that on radar actually resembled a hurricane over Kansas and Missouri. The most important thing you need to do is to have a plan for keeping your family safe. Start preparing to weather the worst storm safely now.

1 Make a plan so your family knows for what to do when a tropical storm comes your way.

2 Make a Hurricane Safety Checklist to help you keep track of how to prepare and what supplies you’ll need if you choose to shelter in place.

3 Build your hurricane kit.

4 Gather essential stuff for your grab ‘n’ go bag. Each person and pet should have their own.

5 Understand Texas evacuation routes ahead of time. Make arrangements well ahead of time where you’ll go to in the event of an evacuation order.

6 If you know someone who might need assistance during a disaster, please register now for the State of Texas Emergency Assistance Registry (STEAR), a free registry that provides local emergency planners and responders with additional information about needs in their communities.

[mnranger5]

Completely unprepared for the Big Bass Bash? 4/14/18

This week feels a bit like walking into a college course final exam, except, I haven’t been allowed to study.  I have cliff notes, a way too thick text book and study guide, but I haven’t been allowed to open any of them.  I will head into this final exam with complete unpreparedness.

But instead of class materials, I have a tackle box, fishing rods and a boat.  All of it, just sitting in the garage.  Begging to be used.  The Big Bass Bash, the biggest fishing event of the year, in in exactly one week.  The weather has been so miserable, I have not had the boat on the water a single time.  Why?  Because it is April 14th and we still have 2 feet of ice on the lakes.  Oh yeah, and we have this little storm bearing down on us right now…

So, as a way to calm my nerves about being unprepared for the Bash, I am using my blog as a therapeutic way organize my thoughts and document a game plan for next weekend.

What is the Big Bass Bash?  It is a tournament in Lake of the Ozarks that pays out over $250,000 in cash prizes.  The two day tournament costs each angler $180 to enter.  The largest fish of the tournament wins $100K!!  In addition to the top 4 overall biggest fish caught, the tournament also provides anglers with a slew of additional payouts like the top 35 in each time slot, or even a cool $500 payday for any fish weighing in at exactly 3.00 or 4.00lbs.

First and foremost, safety is #1.  Last week I got new hubs/bearings, tires and lights for the trailer.  The trip to/from the Ozarks should be perfectly uneventful.  My young pal Tom Biermaier will be happy I took his advice on getting the bearings looked at before the trip!

Second, I upgraded my trolling motor.  Well, its not technically an upgrade in power, but it is 8 years newer than the model I replaced.  My previous MotorGuide Tour was a 71lb thrust unit.  My new MotorGuide X3 is only a 70lb thrust unit, however, the technological advances in the past eight years make my old unit obsolete compared to this one.  So long are the days of stepping on the foot pedal and wondering which way the boat was going to move...

Third is gear.  While I did upgrade a few areas of the tackle box over the winter, I didn’t buy nearly as much as I have in the past.  No new rods, or reels for 2018.  Shocking, I know.  So over the next week, I will be rigging up all my rods and reels with new line.

My fourth consideration I look at is weather and the current fish cycle.  In a typical year, the big bass should be spawning on LOZ by this coming weekend.  That would entail giant females sitting on beds way up in the shallowest of water.  But this isn’t a typical year.  We are still waiting for spring.  Water temps are still in the mid 40’s.  Bass generally start their spawning behavior when the water gets into the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.  Even though the Ozarks had a couple of days in the 70s this week, it probably isn’t enough to send all the bass into a mating ritual.  There looks to be a major cool down coming again next week, just in time for the Bash.  I believe we will be fishing in a pre-spawn pattern where the fish could be in a bit deeper water – the 5’-15’ range – as they patiently wait for spring, like all of us.

The fifth consideration I have is the body of water itself.  LOZ is massive, with more shoreline than the entire state of California.  It is a bass fisherman’s paradise with all the fingers and creeks littered with docks.   LOZ is currently at 655ft, which is 5ft below full pool level.  Low water levels this time of year can present some unique challenges to both the fish, and anglers.  First and foremost, the low water removes a significant portion of fishable water that is generally  viewed as some of the best bass habitat on the lake.  LOZ is a series of narrow bowls.  When the water is low, fish cannot get to the upper edges of the bowl.  The upper edges of the bowl are the shoreline waters.  These waters are littered with structure like rock, gravel, vegetation, branches laydowns, dock structure.  Anglers want to fish these spots because the probability of catching fish in these areas is much higher.  Fish want to be in these spots because the structure creates safe habitat and ambush points for feeding.  So, when fish cannot reach these water due to low water levels, they move into the slightly deeper water.  On LOZ, this slightly deeper water can be insane drop offs of 10,20,30, even a 100 feet.  The boat docks in this image go from 0 FOW to over 100FOW!

For the Bash, Aaron and I will likely be targeting fish in the 5-15 FOW column.  While I think the fish want to be up there shallower, the likelihood of finding them there is low.  If the forecast changes and we get some warm sunshine, the chances of finding them shallow are much greater.

So now that I have a guess for the depth the fish will be in, we need to look for specific spots.  Tournament officials expect over 3,000 boats to participate in the Bash.  It is estimated that ninety percent of the boats (2,700) generally fish between the dam at mile marker 0 and Camdenton, at mile marker 30.  That works out to roughly 90 fishing boats per mile.  The remaining 300 boats fish between mile markers 30 and 92. With my parents house located around mile marker 2, we are going to be right in the middle of the massive bass boat traffic.  

I do not expect us to have any water to ourselves.  I watched a couple YouTube videos from the 2017 Bash where anglers showed lines of boats working the exact same shoreline, one after the next, like a train.  Basically, wherever we go, I’ll expect a crowd.

I am glad Aaron and I had some experience out on LOZ last year.  We were able to hit several areas of the lower end like Jobson Hollow, Birdsong Hollow, Lighthouse Landing, Spinnaker Point, Jennings Branch Cove, Lick Branch Cove and Raccoon Hollow Cove.  We will likely hit several of these areas again.

For new water, I am generally looking for coves and hollows on the north side of the lake which get the most daily sun exposure.  These waters should theoretically be a degree or two warmer than the coves with a northern exposure.  This time of year, the warmer the water, the better then bite.  We will probably try out Jackson Branch Cove, Dry Branch Cove, or the unnamed cove adjacent to the Assembly of God Camp.  There are also a few other unnamed coves which look promising a bit further up the lake (MM7).  I like these areas because they have a southern exposure, are right off of the main channel, and get shallow very quickly.  I have an Andrew Jackson that says these small coves will be heavily fished during the Bash.

One of the tips I read from Big Ed’s Guide Service in the Ozarks said the following,” Don’t waste too much time blazing all over the lake from spot to spot.  There are big fish everywhere, from the main lake points, to the back of the creeks.  If you think you have a good spot, protect it.  Keep in mind, the spot you are thinking of trying next probably has an angler on it now.”  Unless we come up with an ultra-secret honey hole between now and this time next week, I don’t see us venturing too far from my folks house.  Another factor to consider is the weigh-in locations.  If we catch a giant fish, I would prefer to a shorter, smoother boat ride to the weigh-in location in order to preserve the fish’s health.  Pretty sure they aren’t going to pay out $100,000 for a dead fish.

My sixth and final consideration is my tackle box.  What am I going to be throwing?  This is probably the most fluid of the considerations because once you find something that is working, you stick to it.  But, finding something that entices a bite often times takes a ton of trial and error.   For my initial riggings, I will have certainly have big bladed spinnerbait, swimbait, Rat-l-trap, shakey head with a 7” worm (maybe 10” – go big or go home, right Aaron?), chatterbait, buzzbait and a jerkbait.  Some other options I will have on standby with be an umbrella rig, skirted jig, Carolina rig, Texas rig and jigworm.  And if we are getting killed out there, I might be forced to throw a dropshot.  Luckily I have just enough rods and reels for one of everything I want to throw!

The presentation will all depend on how the fish are reacting.  If they want a slower presentation, we will clearly go with the shakey head, jig , or other presentations with a soft plastic.  Those are a little easier to finesse.

If fishing is fast, the crankbait, swimbait and spinnerbait will likely be my go to choices.  Since the water is fairly stained, I will try and use some brighter colors to help draw attention.  But as I said, the bait and color is all very fluid and can change on a dime.  I mean, if Aaron hooks up with a hog using a pink Banjo minnow, then I guess the lure “as seen on TV” is for me!

As I type this blog, I am learning about another new April snowstorm, scheduled to hit on Wednesday.  

Let’s hope it all melts by Friday so we can get to the lake safely.