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Will the Flyers Pursue RFAs? It Sure Sounds Like It.
Restricted free agency in the NHL has stood as something of a forbidden fruit. It’s there. It’s right in front of you. You want to take a bite, but can you? Should you? The initial bite might tingle your tastebuds, but that momentary joy can turn to the bitterness of a rotten lemon in a millisecond. It’s a rarity to even broach the topic, let alone maintain possession of the fruits of one’s labor. How rare? There have been just 35 offer sheets made to restricted free agents in NHL history. In the past twenty years, only eight, yes EIGHT offer sheets have been extended to another team’s restricted free agent. It just so happens that two of those eight – a staggering 25% – have been offered by your team, your town, your Philadelphia Flyers.
Will Chuck Fletcher become the third Flyers GM in thirty-three years to make an offer to a restricted free agent? There are plenty of reasons to believe that it’s going to happen.
Reason #1: Influencers
I mentioned earlier that only two Flyers general managers have ever made an offer sheet to a restricted free agent and you’ll recognize the names: Bob Clarke and Paul Holmgren. The latter is the man who officially hired Fletcher and currently serves as the Flyers Team President. The former is a man who played a bigger role in the hiring of Chuck Fletcher than he might let on. Clarke first hired Fletcher as an Assistant GM of the Florida Panthers back in 1993. He’s spoken glowingly of Fletcher including this:
Reason #2: Bob Clarke Said As Much
When Anthony and I sat down with Bob Clarke, who now serves as Flyers Senior Vice President, for an exclusive interview for Snow The Goalie, I asked about why more teams don’t make offer sheets to restricted free agents. Then Clarke dropped this bombshell:
.@NHLFlyers Hall of Famer Bob Clarke with me and @AntSanPhilly for #SnowTheGoalie on whether teams will make offers to RFAs this offseason: pic.twitter.com/frbHYzD2Ya
— Russ Joy (@JoyOnBroad) March 10, 2019
“You’re gonna see it with restricted free agents, just because of the salary cap. Teams get a restricted free agent coming up… they’ve got three or four million dollars in cap space, someone’s gonna come in and offer five or six, maybe overpay, but it’s gonna happen.” One could take that quote a couple of ways. Could Clarke have been talking league-wide as he referenced “teams”? Sure. But, remember, this wasn’t the question asked. Clarke’s got Fletcher’s ear. This was about as much of a pronouncement of off-season strategy as I think we’ll ever get. As for teams he could be referencing, I’ll get to that later. I wondered if Fletcher – or any GM for that matter – has been/would be hesitant to burn bridges with another member of the sacred front office fraternity:
.@NHLFlyers Hall of Famer Bob Clarke joined @AntSanPhilly & @JoyOnBroad for an exclusive sit-down for #SnowTheGoalie. NHL GMs rarely submit offer sheets to Restricted Free Agents. Does Clarke think they fear burning bridges with their counterparts? Watch: pic.twitter.com/qxoQxqSEit
— Kyle Scott (@CrossingBroad) March 8, 2019
Ultimately, he’s right. Another front office shouldn’t hold it against Fletcher professionally if he were to poach a top RFA away from a contender, but it’s easier said by a guy who by his own admission spends much of his time golfing in Florida than for someone actively working in the NHL.
Reason #3: An Exorbitant Amount of Cap Space
With a projected salary cap of roughly $83 million for the 2019-20 season, the Flyers find themselves with slightly less than $47 million committed to players against the cap. That leaves them with about $36 million in cap space, third most in the entire league behind only Ottawa and Colorado. It looks tantalizing until you take into account the fact that the Flyers have critical restricted free agents of their own to re-sign long-term including Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim, and Phil Myers. The team could also choose to bring back Ryan Hartman and they’re also expected to re-sign UFA netminder Cam Talbot.
Assuming the team makes reasonable offers: Provy ($5m), Konecny ($5m), Sanheim ($4.25m), Myers ($3.25m), Hartman ($2.25m), Talbot ($3.25m), that leaves them with $13 million in potential cap space. That’s more than enough to pry away a top RFA or deliver a Shea Weber sized poison pill to a team at the top third of the conference.
Side note: Don’t look past 2020, when the team will also have to offer deals to Nolan Patrick, Oskar Lindblom, and potentially Robert Hägg.
Reason #4: Fletcher Could Irreparably Damage An Eastern Conference Foe
Like Clarke said earlier, if a team has, “three or four million dollars in cap space, someone’s gonna come in and offer five or six, maybe overpay.”
Let’s drill down on what I believe Clarke was really alluding to. There are three prominent headliners leading a stacked RFA class this summer: Colorado RW Mikko Rantanen, Toronto RW Mitch Marner, and Tampa Bay C Brayden Point. The latter two are the most intriguing for a myriad of reasons. Consider this: if Chuck Fletcher were to pursue Marner or Point, it could represent a no-lose situation for his team.
Let’s look at Tampa Bay’s situation first. Brayden Point is in the midst of his third NHL season. At age 22, he’s racked up 82 points (37 goals/45 assists) in 67 games. If his point progression were to continue in the 2019-20 season, he could be poised to eclipse 100 points; heck there’s still time for him to get there this year. The Lightning enter the offseason with roughly $10 million of cap space and only sixteen players under contract. While they’re likely the deepest team in the entire league, they have a long-term deficiency with only four defensemen under contract for the 2019-20 season. Could Fletcher work out a trade of, say, Shayne Gostisbehere – who drew interest from one Western Conference team at the trade deadline – in order to clear out a bit more cap space for the Orange & Black while providing Tampa an affordable asset at a valuation that many in the league would consider to be an underpay for a defenseman with Ghost’s unique skillset? It would likely need to occur as a side deal between Philly and Tampa Bay, one that forces the Lightning to admit they won’t be able to match an offer from the Flyers with an annual cap hit of $10m+.
Toronto’s cap situation is even more tenuous and could provide some juicy options for Fletcher. After signing #1 free agent John Tavares after the 2017-18 season, the Maple Leafs doled out a shiny new 6-yr, $41.4m deal to William Nylander just before the December RFA deadline AND a 5-yr, $58.17m megadeal to Auston Matthews. That leaves them with just under $10 million of cap space to fill out nine roster spots. Would the Flyers throw down an offer sheet in excess of $10m annually to Mitch Marner? The soon-to-be 22 year old has posted 82 points (24 goals/58 assists) through 68 games in his third NHL season. Maybe, just maybe, that’s not even the player the Flyers have their eye on. In a Pierre LeBrun piece for The Athletic, Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher was quoted as saying:
“It’s a tool, but the problem in many cases is that you have to overpay to overwhelm the team to get the player,” said Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher. “To the point where you end up creating cap issues for yourself. So it has to be … there are probably circumstances where you would consider it and probably circumstances where it just doesn’t make sense. It can be a pretty prohibitive price both in terms of money and assets to give up.’’
A general manager, who was provided anonymity due to speculating about another team’s player, asked of signing a secondary piece from Toronto such as Kasperi Kapanen:
“If you sign Kapanen to a contract paying $6 million a year, are the Leafs really capable of matching it?’’
I wonder who that GM could’ve been. Anthony and I have discussed the Wayne Simmonds for Kasperi Kapanen rumor multiple times on The Press Row Show and Snow The Goalie. Though that deal was never consummated, perhaps the Flyers have never taken their eye off that prize. Kapanen got his start playing locally while his dad Sami was a member of the Philadelphia Flyers. Teams typically put a high emphasis on familiarity with a player when deciding on whether or not to pursue him in free agency, and it’s safe to say they have that with Kasperi. Would it be the splashy kind of deal fans are expecting? No. But if it were to take place in conjunction with a UFA signing of Artemi Panarin, it would round out an excellent off-season.
Reason #5: The Flyers Are Trending in the Right Direction
I know, I know. The organization was mired in some terrible play to start the season, found itself firing both its GM Ron Hextall and head coach Dave Hakstol, while also setting the NHL record for the most goalies play to play in a single season (8). However, there’s reason to believe in the building blocks the team has in place. Carter Hart more than lived up to the hype and has solidified his place as the team’s franchise netminder. The defensive corps stands as one of the most promising long-term groups in the entire league. The aforementioned Patrick, Konecny, and Lindblom have all taken steps forward – no pun intended – and should continue to develop with established veterans Claude Giroux, Jake Voracek, and James van Riemsdyk on their lines. That’s not even mentioning 2018 Selke Finalist Sean Couturier, who is regarded around the league as one of the top two-way forwards in the game. Not that it will necessarily mean anything for 2019-20, but interim head coach Scott Gordon has overseen one of the most impressive turnarounds in modern hockey history, pulling a last-place squad out of the quagmire they found themselves in and leading them to within five points of the final wildcard spot with fourteen games to play.
Clarke brought up another thing that means quite a bit to free agents and their agents: a respected organization has an easier time pitching the best long-term outlook than the opposite end of the spectrum:
The development on this team’s young nucleus has made the potential move for a big free agent not only plausible, but in some ways necessary.
I’d be hard-pressed to advise against an offer sheet for Point or Marner, even with the full knowledge that the compensation – four first-round picks if the AAV exceeds $10,148,303 – is a king’s ransom. It remains to be seen whether Chuck Fletcher follows in the footsteps of his mentor Bob Clarke and boss Paul Holmgren, but it no longer seems out of the question; in fact, I expect it.
For more Flyers coverage, be sure to check out The Press Row Show pregame and intermission shows before and during home games via Facebook Live on the Crossing Broad Facebook page and Periscope via Crossing Broad, Anthony, and Russ’ Twitter accounts. Also, subscribe to our Flyers podcast Snow the Goalie ([iTunes] [Google Play] [Stitcher] [RSS]), leave a 5 star review, and follow us on Twitter:@AntSanPhilly @JoyOnBroad
The post Will the Flyers Pursue RFAs? It Sure Sounds Like It. appeared first on Crossing Broad.
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Ramblings: Updates on Palat, Schenn, Boeser; Malkin; Zuccarello; Assist Rates – November 9
There is a lot, and I mean a lot, to get to so let’s not waste time.
Tampa Bay, and fantasy owners, will be without the services of Ondrej Palat for about a month as an update was given on his lower-body injury. The second line is humming along just fine without him but it does hit their thin LW depth.
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Evgeni Malkin will not face any supplemental discipline for the incident with TJ Oshie Wednesday night.
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The New York Rangers said that Mats Zuccarello is considered day-to-day with a groin strain. We’ll see if it’s day to day because some Ondrej Palat owners likely thought the same thing and now he’ll miss about six weeks total.
Brett Howden was back on the ice for New York, though, so there’s some silver lining here.
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A quick update on Brock Boeser:
Boeser (groin) flying back to Vancouver to see a specialist. #Canucks
— Ben Kuzma (@benkuzma) November 8, 2018
Not great.
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Some news from the Blues.
Brayden Schenn is questionable for their next game.
Patrick Maroon will be a healthy scratch.
Robert Thomas is expected to play their next game. That would be his 10th and a good indication he’ll be around the rest of the year.
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Normally when it’s my night to do Ramblings I like to go game by game to review the significant fantasy performances. Thursday night was, in a word, insane. I’m going to have to just go through the major performances on a macro level rather than game by game.
Vancouver went into Boston, without Brock Boeser, and put up an eight spot on the Bruins. Jaroslav Halak started for Boston and was pulled. Tuukka Rask then allowed three more goals.
Jake DeBrusk had two goals and an assist, David Krejci had three assists, and Matt Grzelcyk had one each.
Vancouver’s production probably works best in bullet form and these are just the guys with multi-point games:
Bo Horvat – 2 goals, 2 assists
Loui Eriksson – 2 goals, 1 assist
Nikolay Goldobin – 2 asssists
Markus Granlund – 2 assists
Erik Gudbranson – 1 goal (seriously), 1 assist
Ben Hutton – 1 goal, 1 assist
Burn this game tape, Boston, and banish the ashes to the pits of hell.
We did get a good quote from Rask, though:
Tuukka Rask: “I was just trying to keep it under 10.”
— Fluto Shinzawa (@FlutoShinzawa) November 9, 2018
Philadelphia overcame a two-goal, third period deficit to defeat Arizona 5-4 in overtime. Scott Laughton had a pair of goals, Claude Giroux had a pair of assists, and both Dale Weise and Shayne Gostisbehere had one of each, the latter the game-winner in extra time.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson had 1 and 1 in the loss and is now up to 10 points on the year.
Mike Hoffman had a pair of assists in Florida’s 4-1 win over Edmonton, bringing his point streak to 10 games and 11 points. Roberto Luongo only faced 27 shots but had a few absolute 10-bell saves and was the reason Florida was able to stay ahead all game long.
Tampa, for the most part, did not look great against the Islanders but talent won out and they skated away with a 4-2 win. Andrei Vasilevskiy faced 37 shots from a bad offensive team, to point out how awful the Lightning were for the most part. They got a late goal from Tyler Johnson to go ahead 3-2 and an empty-netter from Steven Stamkos.
Ottawa managed to tie their game with Vegas 3-3 after being down in a 3-0 hole but the Golden Knights got a couple of late goals to seal it. Hopefully a sign of things to come, Colin Miller had a pair of assists, doubling his point total on the year. He is still without a goal on the year with 35 shots and counting. Add two more points to Thomas Chabot’s season total, adding a goal and an assist. Seriously, this is the sell-high window in one-year leagues.
Buffalo won a wild (get it?) game in Montreal 6-5 in overtime. Jeff Skinner and Vladimir Sobotka each had a pair of goals, the former now up to 11 on the year. Max Domi had three assists in this one, bringing him to 19 points on the year. Jonathan Drouin had 1 and 1 with four shots on goal. Linus Ullmark was pulled after the second period, allowing 5 goals on 32 shots.
Updates on the late games in the morning.
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A few days ago, I talked about the secondary assist rate of Thomas Chabot. His was (and is) so high that, at this pace, he’d be among the points leaders for defencemen through secondary assists alone; he has 13 secondary assists, which would tie him for sixth in points among d-men with John Klingberg and Ryan Suter. Obviously, he can’t sustain anywhere close to that.
It got me thinking, which other players are relying on unreliable secondary assists for production? Let’s take a look. Data is from Natural Stat Trick and this is at five-on-five only (minimum of 100 minutes).
Charlie McAvoy
He’s only played seven games and is still looking to return from injury, but McAvoy leads the NHL in secondary assist rate, having put up four total in those seven games. That’s going to pull back when he returns to the lineup, obviously.
Researching this, though, pointed me to something else for McAvoy: his shot rate is horrific. Through those seven games and 522 players with at least 100 minutes at 5v5, he ranked 473rd in shot rate. Among defencemen only he’s 156th out of 188. That’s bad.
Again, it’s only seven games and we’re still waiting for him to return from injury, so maybe things will change. This is more something to keep an eye on than something to be worried about at the moment, though some extremely handsome Dobber Associate Editor warned over the summer that he was being over-drafted.
Mikko Rantanen
To this point, Rantanen’s secondary assist rate (1.53 per 60 minutes) is more than double last year’s mark (0.73). For reference on that 1.53, of all players with 1000 5v5 minutes in 2017-18, no one was above 0.90. At this rate, he’ll surpass last season’s secondary assist total (14) before Christmas. That obviously won’t happen.
The thing is, even if we take a few assists off his current point total, Rantanen would still have 21 points in 15 games. He also has yet to score at 5v5 this year, blanking on 20 shots to date. If that were to normalize and he has two or three goals, that makes for the drop in second assist rate.
Long story short, there are reasons to believe Rantanen’s point rate will decline (no, he won’t put up 125 points or whatever) but the secondary assist rate at 5v5 should drop in somewhat similar proportions to the increase in 5v5 goal scoring. I wouldn’t worry about those two things specifically.
Evgeni Malkin
If you’re a Malkin owner, and you have a significant hole on your team (say, in goal or on the blue line), now would be the time to trade him. His secondary assist rate per 60 minutes (1.22) is currently by far a career-high, having not been above 0.30 since 2014-15 and never cracking 0.80 in his career. He has as many secondary 5v5 assists this year (4) as he did in 2016-17. That’s the entire 2016-17 season, mind you. He’s one away from last year’s total of five.
Beyond that, Malkin is currently sporting his highest primary assists per 60 minutes of his career at 1.53. He hasn’t been above 1.20 since 2011-12 and is about 50 percent higher than last year’s number. His Individual Points Percentage (IPP), or the rate at which he garners a point when he’s on the ice, is 100%. He just came off three consecutive seasons under 80 percent.
There isn’t just a red flag with secondary assists here, though that will surely regress. There are giant flashing red lights all over the place that indicate Malkin will regress significantly over the balance of the season. He can likely be traded for almost any player in the fantasy game in a straight-up situation. The injury factor is always lurking, too. If you are an owner and need an impact name at a different position, now is the time to make that trade.
Matthew Tkachuk
I just realized that Tkachuk has 19 points this year. That’s a lot of points for the second week of November!
Anyway, as you can imagine, Tkachuk is on this list because of a high secondary assist rate. His total of 5v5 assists (4) has him just behind last year’s total (6) in about a quarter of the games played. You could knock a few points off his total for expected production but that would still leave him roughly as a point-per-game player.
At 5v5, Tkachuk’s IPP is also an even 90 percent, something that will come down either by a little or by a lot. It’s just another reason to think he won’t sustain close to this pace.
Despite all this, I’m not sure I’d be looking to trade Tkachuk in roto leagues. He’s still well over two shots per game, he’s over one PIM per game, he’s over a hit per game, and seems to be locked on the top PP unit. Even if (when) his points pull back a little, there will be more than enough in peripherals to keep him as a top-end fantasy option.
In points-only leagues, though, it might be worth exploring what you can get for him. He won’t be a point-per-game player but maybe he can be traded as one. It never hurts to go fishing.
Anze Kopitar
At the other end of the spectrum, I thought it’d be worth pointing out Kopitar’s start. If only that same extremely handsome Dobber Associate Editor wrote that Kopitar, too, was being greatly over-drafted…
Anyway, hopefully the pendulum has swung the other way. He’s been on the ice for 10 goals scored by LA at 5v5 and he has yet to assist on any of them, be them primary or secondary assists. He won’t put up 90-plus points again but he won’t put up 35, either. I would be checking to see if the Kopitar owner is panicking at this point. If he can be had as a top-125 player rather than a top-25 player, it’s probably a trade worth making.
from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-updates-on-palat-schenn-boeser-malkin-zuccarello-assist-rates-november-9/
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Top 10 wide-ranging projections
Just like almost everyone else in fantasy hockey, I love reading projections.
It’s always fun to have a look to see who is predicting big things for players on your roster and I will sometimes use different projections in my pre-season trade talks. If one guide has a player you are coveting at a lower projection, that’s the one you quote in the trade talks. This year, I combined all of the projections into an excel document to see what players had the widest-ranging projections. I compared 273 players from 13 forecasters. Of those players, 78 have a projection range of at least 20 points, meaning some prognosticators who predict a player to have 50 points, other prognosticators say that same player will hit 70. That’s a huge difference.
For this list, I disqualified some ranges immediately. I eliminated any players that had a wide-ranging projection because of an outlier or two. For example, of 13 projections, 11 predicted Ilya Kovalchuk to finish between 55-62 points, but one had him at 48 and another at 72. While technically the range is 24 points, in all honesty, it’s actually more like seven. Also remember projections are not created equal. One guide only predicts based on every single player playing all 82 games, while the majority of projections still listed Erik Karlsson in Ottawa and Max Pacioretty in Montreal. That’s the great thing about the Dobber guide. The release of the guide in August is just the beginning. He continues to update it as the preseason goes along.
* * Buy the 13th annual DobberHockey Fantasy Guide here – always updated and you can download immediately * *
Another interesting note is that of the top eight wide-ranging projections, six of them were rookies, showing how tough it is to predict points for players who have never played professional hockey before. Below are the top 10 players with wide-ranging projections. The number after the name is the difference between the maximum and minimum projections of the 13 forecasts I looked at.
10. Conor Sheary: 27 points difference in projections
Much of Sheary’s fantasy success will depend on where he slots in the Sabres lineup. He’s shown that he can keep up with elite players and if he spends more than half a season with a healthy Jack Eichel, he should be a shoo-in for the 50ish points some of the guides project (including Dobber himself). If he spends it on the third line, he’ll struggle to get to the 25 points a couple of others envision.
9. Evgeni Malkin: 25
Malkin must be the toughest player to peg for any prognosticator due to Malkin’s penchant for injuries. Last year, he played 78 games, the first time he played at least 70 games since 2011-12. However, even if Malkin misses 20 games, you count on 70-plus points. Three predictions have him finishing in the 70-point range, but most must be expecting a semi-healthy season for Malkin as the majority has him at with least 80 points.
8. Morgan Rielly: 23
With all the love the Leafs have been getting this summer, I’m actually surprised some forecasters were able to withstand predicting Reilly to be the highest-point producing defensemen in the league. (I kid, I kid.) At least six projections have Rielly finishing with fewer than the 52 points he had last year, so it’s good to see some restraint being shown, at least for the Leafs defensemen.
7. J.T. Miller: 21
Both Dobber and Ramblings writer Steve Laidlaw project Miller to get to at least 70 points. Others are more skeptical. Just like Sheary, it will all depend on where Miller lines up. In 19 games with the Lightning last year, Miller had 18 points on a line with Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos games. He needs to remain on that line to come close to getting 70.
6. Anze Kopitar: 22
After years of slowly dropping point totals, was last year’s career-high 92 points a fluke? Prognosticators seem to think so, as not one of the 13 predictions I’ve looked at project Kopitar to reach 90 points. In fact, Dobber was one of only two guides that forecast Kopitar to even reach 85 points. On the flip side, Ramblings writer Cam Robinson was one of two to predict Kopitar wouldn’t reach 70. As a Kopitar owner, it goes without saying I’m hoping more for the 85 points than the 70. Sorry, Cam.
5. Jakub Voracek: 24
It’s interesting to note that the entire trio of the Flyers top line had a projection range of at least 21 points each. That tells me that it’s really hard to peg down exactly what the Flyers are going to be. Seven projections had Voracek in the low 70s, and two more in the 60s to go along with a couple in the 80s.
4. Nathan MacKinnon: 26
MacKinnon is getting a lot of love from forecasters, as Yahoo has him projected the lowest with 80 points and another guide has him second in the league in points (by the way, every single predictor had Connor McDavid leading the league in scoring). Most have MacKinnon as a top-10 player. That’s kind of amazing, considering this time a year ago, people were ready to give up on him after a 53-point season.
3. Sean Couturier: 24
Was last year’s 76-point season a fluke? It sure seems like it based on the experts’ predictions. Not a single prediction has him reaching that total this year and only two have him even reaching 70. I’m guessing much of this prediction is based on the fact many are predicting linemate Claude Giroux to come crashing back down as well.
2. Reilly Smith: 26
Smith will probably spend most of the season playing with William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault, but many are predicting setback seasons for all three of them. Smith had 60 points in 67 games last year, a 73-point pace over 82 games, but only one guide predicted Smith to reach the 70-point mark this year. Most have pegged as a high 50s/low 60s player, but both Yahoo and Scott Cullen predict Smith to finish with a lowly 48 points.
1. Aleksander Barkov: 23
Barkov is a perfect example of what a wide-ranging points prediction model is supposed to look like. There are many who believe Barkov is right on the cusp of becoming an elite centre, but the experts are split almost right down the middle on this. There are six projections that have him at 80 points or above, and the other seven have him at 78 points or less.
from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/fantasy-hockey-top-10/top-10-wide-ranging-projections/
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Ramblings: Playoffs Ahoy!; Kovalchuk Returning?; Monahan Injuries – April 10
One report early on Monday morning had Ilya Kovalchuk signing with the New York Rangers for anywhere around two or three years. He has expressly made his desire to return to the NHL previously known so it’s a matter of where he lands, not if he leaves the KHL.
A lot of people are going to project how many points they see Kovalchuk racking up and I just don’t know how to go about it. Here is a guy who left the NHL in his age-29 season and will be turning 35 at the end of this week. Since the 2013 lockout, only one player aged 35 or older has managed at least 70 points (Joe Thornton, 2015-16 with 82). The highest-scoring winger was Martin St. Louis with 69 in 2013-14. Keep in mind that St. Louis did that playing nearly 21 minutes a night. Wherever Kovalchuk signs, there’s no chance he plays 21 minutes a night.
We have to remember that over his final two seasons, Kovalchuk was playing over 24 minutes a game in order to be a point-per-game player. No team is going to give him anywhere close to that. He won’t be over 20 minutes a game, for that matter. I love Kovalchuk as a player, and I’m getting excited to watch him again in the NHL, but we should feel fortunate if he can get 17-18 minutes a night. At that level, I’d be hard-pressed to project him for more than 60 points. We have all offseason to figure this out, but that seems about right for now.
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An interesting quote from Sabres forward Ryan O’Reilly at lockout clearing day:
Ryan O'Reilly just talked about losing his love for the game this season. Interesting stuff. #Sabres
— Bill Hoppe (@BillHoppeNHL) April 9, 2018
There were some more details later added by beat writer Joe Yerdon.
This is a guy pretty accustomed to winning even if it hasn’t been in the NHL. There are gold medals from the Ivan Hlinka, World Championships, and World Cup of Hockey. He also had two playoff appearances with Colorado. I’m sure when he signed with the Sabres a few years ago, he was looking at a team that may be bad for a year or two, but will have stockpiled enough young players (stars) by this point to be a perennial playoff threat. Things haven’t worked out that way.
It didn’t affect his fantasy performance, though. He set a four-year high in goals (24) and points (61). He had a career-high in shots (230) and face-off wins (1273). He cracked 20 power-play points for the third straight season, setting a career-high in PP goals along the way with 15. Statistically, it was a pretty good season for him.
If Ryan O’Reilly has the kind of season he had at a time when he lost love for the game at times, what can he do if (VERY BIG *IF*) the Sabres can right the ship next year?
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Don’t forget to grab your copy of the Dobber playoff list. It has been updated now that we know the teams and matchups. Get the edge you need for your playoff pools!
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Micah Blake-McCurdy (whom you should follow on Twitter and whose work in hockey is among the best) released his playoff odds per round as well as Cup odds:
🦀 Chances for 2017-2018 with the bracket finally set. Road teams are next to division names, divisional winners on the four corners. pic.twitter.com/FtGQU0JbTP
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) April 9, 2018
I think the two some people may disagree is Minnesota as slight favourites over Winnipeg and Washington as heavy favourites over Columbus. What say you, Dobber heads?
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This isn’t playoff-related, but hoo boy:
Sean Monahan had 4 surgeries since being taken out of the lineup: reconstructive wrist surgery, surgery on both hips and surgery on his groin… unbelievable. #Flames
— Jermain Franklin (@TSNJFranklin) April 9, 2018
This is going to be a crazy offseason for Sean Monahan. That’s, uh, a lot to rehab and come back healthy from? I’d be wary for the 2018-19 fantasy season.
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It looks like Steven Stamkos will be ready for beginning of the postseason. He missed a few games at the end of the year but the plan is for him to be in the lineup for game one. If you’re worried about his injury with regards to playoff pools, he’s healthy enough to play as it is. How much risk you’re willing to tolerate is up to you.
Joe Thornton, however, will not be in the lineup for game one. He’s been out of the lineup since the end of January and at a minimum won’t start the postseason for the Sharks. It seems to me he’s a guy to just avoid for drafts.
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Beyond the draft list available in the Dobber Shop, we’re going to have a lot of playoff content. Each Dobber writer, editor, and contributor will be providing their picks for each series as we have every year. We will also have some fantasy picks over on Sportsnet as well as daily updates here in Ramblings.
I wanted to give my thought on some series and players for drafts.
Colorado/Nashville
Nashville is a massive favourite to win the series. By Vegas odds, they’re the biggest favourites, and it’s not even close; using Bodog odds, they sit at -500 to win the series. If you want to convert that to a percentage, it’s about 83 percent to win the series, or they win the series five out of every six opportunities.
I should make the disclaimer that I don’t outright bet on hockey games. If you’re looking for a professional handicapper, I am not that. But an 83 percent implied win rate seems high for any seven-game NHL playoff series. All it takes is for Jonathan Bernier to get hot for two weeks. Or the Nathan MacKinnon line to get hot for two weeks. Or any other number of ways one playoff team beats another playoff team four times out of seven.
Nashville wins this series most of the time. It just seems very pricy.
San Jose
When I do playoff drafts, the very first question I ask is: which team has the easiest path to the Conference Final? When I look at this year’s bracket, it goes something like this:
Boston and Tampa Bay, should they win their first-round matchups, will face each other in the second round.
The winner of Columbus/Washington (a series I think is close) will probably have to go through the two-time defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins.
Should Nashville and Winnipeg win their series – and they both should – they’ll face off in the second round.
And then there’s the Pacific bracket.
Of the four teams in the Pacific side of the bracket – Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose, Vegas – only the Sharks finished in the top-15 teams league-wide in expected goals percentage at five-on-five, and San Jose was in the top-10. That holds up if we count games just since the All-Star break or, in other words, since the Joe Thornton injury.
I’m a believer in San Jose. I know we say that every year, but they’re a good team. I’m less convinced on the other teams in their bracket. Anaheim is a pretty tough first-round draw and the Sharks could very well be bounced out early. However, San Jose is not a team that will be targeted heavily in playoff drafts, which means that after you get the obligatory Bruins/Leafs/Lightning/Penguins/Predators players (or whomever is heavily targeted), you can really rack up the Sharks offensive players.
Columbus
If I had to pick a team in the East to target that I think most people will overlook, much in the same vein as the Sharks, it’s Columbus.
The Blue Jackets’ Achilles’ heel all season was special teams. Though the common trope is that fewer penalties are called in the postseason, that has been found to not be true. At the least, Columbus did improve their power play as the season wore on, finding themselves in the middle of the pack with the man advantage after the All-Star break in expected goals. They were also mid-pack in actual goals. The PP doesn’t have to be a world-beater, but it has to be better than the ~10 percent it was over the first half of the season. And it was. If they can stay out of the box against Washington, they stand a decent shot in that series.
With all the popular teams flying off the board early, you’ll probably get your pick of the players from Columbus. The top guys like Cam Atkinson and Artemi Panarin are locks, but don’t forget Thomas Vanek, Alex Wennberg, or the returning Josh Anderson.
Pittsburgh/Philadelphia
Can I just say, from a neutral fan’s standpoint, this is the first-round series I’m looking forward to most? I know a lot of people will say Leafs/Bruins, but I remember that 2012 Penguins/Flyers series. I was in Toronto for the Blue Jays’ home opener series watching the NHL games at a bar. I was almost in disbelief at what I was watching. Nothing but goals and fights.
Of course there’s been significant roster turnover since then but a lot of the major players like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, and Wayne Simmonds are still around. They’ll remember. We probably won’t get fireworks like that again but one can hope.
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There’s a lot of talk about “what went wrong” with the Oilers. There’s a laundry list: trading talented wingers, injured defencemen, and Cam Talbot having a down year are all worthy talking points. One thing we can’t overlook is special teams. On the season, if you subtract power-play goals against from power-play goals for, the Oilers were an incredible minus-26. The next-worst team was Detroit at minus-17, and only five teams in the league were minus-10 or worse (the aforementioned teams plus Montreal, Columbus, and Ottawa). Of the 10 teams with the best differential (Boston, Colorado, San Jose, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg, Toronto, Los Angeles, Vegas, New Jersey, the Rangers) only the New York Rangers failed to qualify for the playoffs. I think a healthy Oscar Klefbom will help the power play next season but that penalty kill needs cleaning up in the worst way.
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I know he’s not the same broadcaster he was 20 years ago but count me among the hockey fans who will miss Bob Cole this postseason. Sportsnet has not included him among their playoff broadcast teams so unless something changes, we won’t be getting a hearty Oh Baby this spring.
It’s nostalgia, for sure, but Bob Cole is one of the voices of my childhood. For me and many Canadians near my age, he’s the voice of hockey. I wish they could have had him in the booth for the Leafs/Bruins. That would have been special.
from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-playoffs-ahoy-kovalchuk-returning-monahan-injuries-april-10/
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No Ghost for Halloween? Seven Takeaways from Flyers 4, Maple Leafs 2
I spent Saturday night on the couch under a blanket, with my head pounding and everything seeming foggy as I drifted in and out of consciousness rather than attend a Halloween party.
I can only imagine that’s what Gostisbehere is experiencing right now (minus the chills) after he had to leave the Flyers impressive 4-2 win over the Maple Leafs in Toronto Saturday.
He was a victim of an unnecessary hit by Leafs center Leo Komorov that drove him into the boards face first, resulting in a probable concussion.
It’s the second head injury this month for Gostisbehere, who was in danger of missing the season opener after a similar hit in the Flyers’ final preseason game, but he played and prospect defenseman Sam Morin sat in the press box for the first four games of the season before being sent back to the Phantoms.
With Andrew MacDonald already sidelined for at least a month with a knee injury, the Flyers defense could be in dire straits if Gostisbehere has to miss any extended time.
And since I’m feeling pretty crappy myself, let’s just move on to the takeaways:
1) What’s left of the defense?
O.K. first we have to look at the hit on Gostisbehere and once again shake our heads at the incompetence of the officials:
Shayne Gostisbehere isn't coming back to the game. Upper-body injury. http://pic.twitter.com/aYrbuoeCxA
— Chris Jastrzembski (@CFJastrzembski) October 29, 2017
I mean you can see the referee in the background watching this play happen, and he just turns away and lets the hit go.
Komorov hits Ghost from behind, right between the numbers, and drives him face first into the boards.
That. Is. Illegal.
How there’s no penalty called there is beyond me. I know it’s a fast game and things get missed, but that’s why several years ago, the NHL switched from one referee to two per game, so that things like this don’t get missed, and yet…
Credit to Gostisbehere, who after a minute, got up, made his way to the bench, and on his very next shift made a perfect bank shot pass to Travis Konecny who then made an even better pass to Valtteri Filppula for what would eventually be the game-winning goal:
But a goal for the second unit. Val Filppula with the wrist shot. #Flyers http://pic.twitter.com/ykp4hF5uRw
— Chris Jastrzembski (@CFJastrzembski) October 29, 2017
It was Gostisbehere’s 12th assist of the season, tops among defensemen in the NHL. His 13 points are not only best among league defensemen, but ranks tied for eighth among all players in the NHL.
But back to the hit… We are all assuming it’s a head injury, but the Flyers don’t tell you anything for certain. They keep you guessing and are calling it an upper body injury.
However, if you look at the hit again, there’s a chance this is an arm/shoulder injury as well as his left arm and shoulder really get pinned, and his left arm is crunched against the unforgiving dasher.
And, the fact that he came back onto the ice for another shift might mean it’s not a head injury – so we’ll have to wait and see.
But now, the Flyers are down to five defensemen, so someone has to be brought in. But who?
Sam Morin has to be the frontrunner since he was the eighth guy the first four games of the season, but the Flyers may want to opt for more of a puck-mover to replace Gostisbehere.
This is why I suggested Mark Friedman last week when MacDonald went down. He only has two assists so far with the Phantoms, but he’s similar in style to Gostisbehere and could fit that role better than Morin.
Mark Alt is another possibility, he’s gotten off to a solid start for the Phantoms and is more of a tweener because he isn’t an electric skater, but provides offense and uses his size on the defensive end.
T.J. Brennan has NHL experience, but he’s hurt. Anyone else?
@AntSanPhilly what could Mark Streit skating today at Skatezone in #Flyers gear mean? 🤔🤔 http://pic.twitter.com/dDlAmDDN2p
— Pete Mitchell (@CrangesMcB13) October 28, 2017
No. They couldn’t be… could they?
I sent a message yesterday before the game to both Ron Hextall and Streit’s agent Pat Brisson asking about this and neither answered.
I don’t think this is realistic. After not being able to play for the crummy Montreal defense, he was waived, went unclaimed (he was only making $700,000 with the Canadians, so he would have been really cheap as a waiver claim) and then rather than take an assignment to the AHL, agreed with Montreal to have his contract terminated, making him a free agent.
Streit, 39, did go to Pittsburgh to receive his Stanley Cup ring and probably made his way back here since he still has a home in Philadelphia.
It’s more than likely that he just asked the Flyers for permission to use the rink to get a skate in while they were away.
I was also told that Streit is debating between waiting for the phone to ring or calling it a career and getting into coaching – more in a player development role, which he has discussed with at least one team I am aware of (not the Flyers).
So, although the Flyers might be desperate, I don’t think they’re that desperate.
2) The new third line
I’m sorry, but I just can’t call the line of Taylor Leier, Scott Laughton and Michael Raffl the Flyers fourth line anymore.
They play like a prototypical shutdown third line and provide additional offense that you don’t see many fourth lines offering.
Not only that, Laughton and Leier also play together on the penalty kill. So when you see Laughton posting 16 minutes in a game and Leier 13 minutes – as they did last night – while a line of Matt Read, Jori Lehtera and Travis Konecny all had less than nine minutes of ice time, I think it’s safe to say this unit is not a fourth line, no matter what a scout may have told Elliott Friedman of Sportsnet in Canada.
They have been a revelation this season, and arguably the most impressive decision by Dave Hakstol aside from moving Claude Giroux to the wing and promoting Sean Couturier to top line center.
I mean, look at this play:
4th line the best line. http://pic.twitter.com/NFa4A9Be0r
— Chris Jastrzembski (@CFJastrzembski) October 28, 2017
Raffl doesn’t get an assist, but he makes the play happen in the neutral zone. Leier and Laughton do the rest moving the puck nicely and setting up Brandon Manning for the goal. It’s really smart hockey by that trio. Hey speaking of Manning…
3) Man-Dog
Woo is back!
“WOOO” -Man Dog http://pic.twitter.com/2xSk287qII
— Philadelphia Flyers (@NHLFlyers) October 29, 2017
Manning was stylin’ and profilin’ in the locker room because he had a damn good game. Seriously. And not just because he scored a goal either.
Nope, Manning may have played his best game as a Flyer. He also picked up an assist. He played 20 minutes – filling in a lot of shifts with Gostisbehere out, got a couple other good shots on goal, and played physical with three hits.
I normally don’t consider Manning anything more than a 6th/7th defenseman. But, the guy is a hard-worker and it’s nice to see him get rewarded for his effort.
He’s going to be playing under a bigger spotlight if Gostisbehere has to miss any extended time, so things could start getting tougher for him, but for one night, he can strut in that robe proudly. Good game, Man-Dog.
4) Scoreacheck
Jake Voracek finally scored a real goal:
More neutral zone play leads to another #Flyers goal. Voracek with his second of the year and the second in as many games. http://pic.twitter.com/dgStijo0TP
— Chris Jastrzembski (@CFJastrzembski) October 28, 2017
He scored against Ottawa, but that was a pass that ricocheted off a Senator into the net. This time, it was intentional. And it has to be a relief to him.
For all the times Voracek frustrates you with his defensive shortcomings, the guy can flat-out make up for it on the offensive end.
With two more points, he now has 16 this season, putting him third in the NHL behind only the sick duo of Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov in Tampa, who are on a ridiculously torrid pace playing together for the first place Lightning.
Frankly, the entire top line is scoring at will for the Flyers. Couturier’s 13 points is tied for eighth in the league and Giroux’s 12 has him tied for 16th in scoring. That’s 41 points from the line in 11 games. Pretty impressive.
Oh, here’s Giroux’s goal from the game. Check out the pass from Voracek:
G with the snipe, but another deep assist pass from Jake. #Flyers back up 2. http://pic.twitter.com/DnURQVJIHE
— Chris Jastrzembski (@CFJastrzembski) October 29, 2017
5) Look, a good goaltending performance
Credit Brian Elliott for rebounding nicely from his woeful start against Anaheim. He made 28 saves, including this one on Kasperi Kapanen:
Elliott stops Sami Kapanen's son. http://pic.twitter.com/vW1vnr4zjK
— Chris Jastrzembski (@CFJastrzembski) October 29, 2017
The Flyers need more starts like this from Elliott. He has won five of his seven starts, but hasn’t looked good in all of the wins. This one he did, giving up two goals to Nazem Kadri, neither of which were his fault.
It’s going to be important for the goaltending to be reliable for a stretch here if Gostisbehere is going to miss extended time. This was an encouraging first step.
6) Nolan Patrick
Patrick missed his second straight game with an injury. The Flyers won’t call it a concussion. But this was my favorite quote from Patrick when interviewed by NBCSports Philly (that’s still so clunky to say) beat guy John Boruk in Toronto Friday:
“It’s my first time that I’ve ever had any kind of injury like this before,” Patrick said. “It’s a lot of protocol things you have to go through. I think the league is pretty big on that kind of stuff. There’s a few things I got to do first. I’m feeling good though.”
Don’t come down too hard on him, Hexy. He’s only 19. He hasn’t mastered the art of lying about injuries yet. Give him time. It’s O.K. that you still refer to it as an upper body injury. We all know he’s concussed. It’s cool.
This brings me to my final observation (since I was too sick to come up with a good Loose Pucks list:)
7) Shut it down
The Flyers in the third period really put a clamp on their own zone and made life miserable for the Maple Leafs.
They switched their style and went into shutdown mode, which is different than usual, as the Flyers are a team that likes to keep the gas pedal to the floor.
But, playing short a defenseman and against a good offensive team, the Flyers decided to go into a defensive-first system – and it worked.
The Flyers are now 5-0-0 when leading after two periods – and maybe found something that could work for them moving forward if they have a two-goal lead, or better, heading into the final 20 minutes.
No Ghost for Halloween? Seven Takeaways from Flyers 4, Maple Leafs 2 published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv
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