#except maybe devan he might be able to

[auburnfamilynews]

John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

It was ugly, but luckily for us, it was uglier for the Billikens

What kind of wonderful, beautiful world do we live in where Auburn basketball is 9-0 and one of only four undefeateds left in the country? It hasn’t always been pretty, with close wins against USA, Furman, and now St. Louis, but this team has been able to win in just about every possible fashion so far in the young season.

Saturday against St. Louis, the Tigers had to find a way when absolutely nothing was falling inside the arc, including free throws. Let’s take a deeper dive into how the win over the mythical good-luck gremlins played out.

AUBURN 67, St. Louis 61

FOUR FACTORS

The immediate takeaway from this game, before I even entered the stats, was that Auburn couldn’t hit a two-point bucket to save their lives. 33% from inside the arc is just terrible, especially considering that was an are the Tigers considered themselves elite at so far this year. Even after this abhorrent performance, the Tigers rank 9th in the country shooting 56.7% from 2. As Son of Crow pointed out to me, a lot of that had to do with 6’7” 250 lbs Hasaan French and 6’10” 270 Jimmy Bell playing the role of enforcer in the paint, forcing Austin Wiley to go 2-11 from 2. Not good, folks. Not good.

Luckily, as much as Auburn struggled near the basket, St. Louis was even worse from 3. St. Louis had been an above average team from 3, shooting around 36% until a posting a nightmarish 16.7% in the BJCC. This resulted in Auburn gaining the slight edge in eFG%, although neither team could claim to have had a good shooting night.

eFG% Advantage - Auburn

Just like above, the shooting woes carried over to the charity stripe. The only player to shoot better than 50% from the line was Samir Doughty, who sunk 5 of 6. Auburn has done a decent job, though, of at least getting to the line this season, largely in part to the hack-a-Shaq defense on Wiley. It carried over in this game, with Auburn attempting a 0.45 free throw for every shot attempted from the field. This was actually slightly better than Auburn’s season average of 0.39 FTA/FGA, although the 46% free throw shooting curbed that benefit.

Meanwhile, St. Louis only attempted 0.29 free throws per shot attempted from the field. Combine that with shooting around 40%, and the Billikens got effectively no benefit from shooting free throws Saturday night. This also brought the St. Louis’s season average down to 52.5%, good for... dead last in the country. Yikes.

FTA/FGA Advantage - Auburn

Here’s where the advantage for Auburn starts to show itself. Despite having a bad shooting night, Auburn played really solid possession basketball, racking up 10 assists to just 7 turnovers. I was worried about this team turning the ball over too much early in the year, and it can still happen when they start trying to force it into the paint to Wiley, but they’ve done a good job cleaning up passing in transition and not gifting the other team possessions with unforced errors. J’Von McCormick has settled in nicely to the facilitator-first point guard role, although nights like Saturday showed he can still break out a 20 point scoring performance from time to time.

The Auburn defense, though, has been excellent at forcing non-steal turnover with Bruce’s full court press. Despite Auburn only getting credit for 5 steals, St. Louis turned the ball over 12 times, roughly 18% of their possessions. It’s tough to show this with box score numbers, but this is where guys like Issac Okoro really shine. Big steals numbers are often associated with taking risks and getting beat or called for a foul. Forcing the opponent to make bad passes, though, doesn’t carry those same risks.

TO% Advantage - Auburn

Strangely enough, Auburn had one of its better offensive rebounding nights, grabbing 36% of the available offensive boards. Four different players had at least 3 offensive rebounds, led by Wiley with 5. This result shouldn’t be too surprising, though, as missing a bunch of two point shots will provide this kind of result. Missed three point shots are notoriously more likely to be rebounded by the defense, and Auburn actually made more of its 3’s than 2’s.

The biggest reason St. Louis stayed in this game, though, was thanks to Auburn’s poor defensive rebounding. The boards on St. Louis’s end were split nearly 50/50, compared to Auburn’s opponent’s season average being 28%. I don’t have this level of detail in the box score, but Auburn didn’t box out on several back-ends of free throws which we know the Billikens missed plenty of. Those second chance points allowed St. Louis to crawl back into the game every time Auburn tried to stretch the lead.

OR% Advantage - St. Louis

Individual Numbers

I’m not going to go super in depth here, but here’s my quick observations that I didn’t cover elsewhere.

The game MVP was undoubtedly McCormick. His final line was 20 pts/7 reb/6 ast, but as mentioned before, he was critical in keeping Auburn’s turnover number down. He won’t go off like this every night, but it’s nice to see he can do this on occasion. His rebound numbers are legit, too, as he’s now averaging 4.8 per game.

The heart of this team continues to run through the 5. In 41 combined minutes (Mac played a little 4), Austin Wiley and Anfernee McLemore posted 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 blocks. And this was a bad night for Wiley, maybe his worst of the season. These two may not be the offensive stars most nights, but they’re putting up consistently good numbers this season that keep this team afloat when others are struggling.

Devan Cambridge had limited minutes, but this was another good night for him. He hit both of his 2 point shots, including a monster putback jam in the second half, and added stats in every column except fouls and steals. If he can provide that kind of energy for 10-15 minutes every night, that would be huge for the Auburn bench.

He hasn’t earned it, especially with his effort on Saturday, but I desperately want Stretch to earn more minutes. His one minute against St. Louis resulted in him fouling and then not boxing out a free throw. If he could get to even just 5-8 minutes per night, that would give Mac and Wiley more of a chance to play on the floor together more, which I think might be the best lineup right now.

Danjel Purifoy kind of disappeared in this game. He only played 19 minutes, sharing the mostly with Cambridge and Allen Flanigan, and in those 19 minutes he took just two shots. He did add 5 defensive rebounds that Auburn really needed, but he was a non-factor on offense. I don’t really have an answer here, but it might be worth keeping an eye on.

from College and Magnolia - All Posts https://www.collegeandmagnolia.com/2019/12/16/21024230/advanced-stats-breakdown-auburn-67-st-louis-61

[advicearcher92-blog]

How Will the Oilers Improve: Part One

The Edmonton Oilers finished 15th in the Western Conference and missed the playoffs by eleven points last year. They were 25th overall in league standings. They were 25th in goals against and 20th in goals for. Their powerplay was 9th at 21.2% and their penalty kill was 30th at 74.8%. They were 28th in shots on goal/game with 29.2 and 19th in shots against/game at 31.7.

Outside of the powerplay, those numbers are undesirable.

Oilers GM Ken Holland didn’t make a major splash in free agency, which wasn’t surprising considering he had very little salary cap flexibility, but also because overpaying on July first is rarely the wise move. The reality is more often than not you have to overpay on July first. If a team really likes a player, part of signing him is knowing you will overpay.

The good news is since July 1st free agent signings have been at a standstill and now it becomes more of a buyers market. There are some good players available, and we could see players forced to sign one-year deals for less money than they’d hoped for. Patrick Maroon had to do this last year when he signed for $1.5 million in St.Louis. It was perfect for him because he got to live in the same city as his son and then won the Stanley Cup, but those situations are rare.

Maroon didn’t have a great season stats-wise, producing 10-18-28, and might have to sign another short-term, lower salary contract this summer. He isn’t the only one as other quality UFAs are still without a contract. Maybe Holland signs one in late July or August when players get a bit more antsy. Does Ryan Dzingel on a one-year deal at $2.5 to $3 million make sense? If I’m Dzingel I’d look at Edmonton, because the opportunity to play a top-six role is wide open. Have a great year and he could cash in on a multi-year deal next season.

Even if Holland signs one more UFA, that player won’t suddenly make the Oilers a contender. If this team is going to improve it will come internally. The list of players who had good seasons last year is quite short, so many players have a chance to be better.

For today’s exercise, I’m looking at realistic improvements. So I’m using league average, 16th, as the goal. Of course, you’d like players or units to be higher, but I’m looking at the Oilers just being competitive which would be 16th.

Let’s start in goal.

Mikko Koskinen finished the season with a .906 sv% and a 2.93 GAA. He was 25th in SV% among the top-31 goalies in starts. If we assume he is the starter, then he’ll be in the top-31 in games started this coming season.

Can he make ten more saves this year? If he does then his sv% would be .912 and that would tie have him 16th. Ten more saves in 51 starts? If we assume Dave Tippett’s system will be more goalie-friendly, is it not unrealistic to assume Koskinen can make ten more stops. Then add in he is spending all summer working on his weaknesses. Notably leaning back instead of forward when challenging shooters, thus giving them more room upstairs.

If he makes 15 more stops his sv% would be .915 and that would have had him 11th last season. The gap between below average and above average isn’t that much when you break it down.

I don’t think it is a stretch to believe Koskinen can make 10-15 more timely saves.

The penalty kill must improve, but how? It is on the players to be better. There isn’t some magic PK system that will suddenly alter their success. The PK has been on a downward spiral since December, 2016. In 215 games since the Oilers PK is 31st in the NHL at an ugly 76.2%. They’ve allowed 148 goals on 622 kills. The PK has been on a trending down for 31 months. Last season it was an ugly 74.8% allowing 62 goals.

Two different head coaches and two different defence coaches couldn’t figure it out. This is on the players to be more committed, more in sync, make better reads and make more saves.

In order to be average (16th) they will need to kill off 13 more powerplays. Again, not a ridiculous number, but considering their PK has gotten worse in each of the past three seasons, this might be their biggest challenge. Koskinen has to be better. Their most experienced defenders; Oscar Klefbom , Adam Larsson , Darnell Nurse and Kris Russell have to be smarter, and their forwards need to get the puck out when they have a chance. It would help if they could win a few more faceoffs as well.

Last year the Oilers were -49 on faceoffs on the PK. Only the Islanders (-67), Carolina (-62) and Ottawa (-61) were worse in the dot, while the Rangers were also -49. The Canes PK was still 8th, but Ottawa and both New York teams were all below average on the PK. Losing draws and not getting the pucks out when they had controlled crushed the Oilers.

Here are the numbers for the D-men last year:

Name       TOI       GA       GA/60 Larsson    165        26         9.44 Nurse       158        26         9.87 Russell      140       27         11.53 Klefbom    109       17          9.28 Benning     87         12         8.24

The one positional change I’d make is not asking Russell to play his off-side. Getting pucks out on your backhand isn’t ideal. Move him to the left side and have Benning and Larsson as the two RD on the PK.

Name       TOI       GA       GA/60 RNH         139       22         9.49 Brodziak   116       17         8.66 Kassian      98        13         7.86 Draisaitl     94        14         8.83 Rieder        89        12         8.20 Khaira        69        10         8.67 McDavid    48        10         12.2 Chiasson    44         6         8.03

There will be changes among the forwards on the PK. Tobias Rieder will not return and Kyle Brodziak might not be a regular in the lineup. Markus Granlund should be one of their top PK forwards. He had the 2nd most PK TOI in Vancouver last season and their PK finished 11th. Khaira needs to show Dave Tippett he can be a reliable penalty killer and be used more, possibly on the second unit with Kassian. For all the good things RNH does, his inability to win a faceoff crushes him, especially on the PK, and with the new rule coming in this season where the attacking team gets to pick which side to take the faceoff, he might struggle more if he is on his weak side more often.

Maybe Colby Cave gets a look. He was 11 of 17 PK faceoffs last year. Granted he only played 14 minutes on the PK, but if he is going to be in the lineup, he has to show Tippett he can kill penalties. Gaetan Haas and Joakim Nygard were good penalty killers in Europe, so I’m sure they will get a look in preseason. If they can help the PK, then their stock goes up a lot.

I’d consider using RNH less on the PK and more at 5×5 if one or two of Nygard, Cave and Haas prove they can kill penalties. The past two seasons have been RNH’s worst when it comes to GA/60 on the PK. He was 12.4 in 2018 and 9.49 last year.

And it would help if they cut down their penalties. The Oilers were shorthanded 246 times last season, 10th most in the NHL. Having more offensive zone time, should help in this regard, because they will be attacking more than defending.

Edmonton allowed 271 goals last year, 25th most in the NHL. They have to improve here. If not, they will miss the playoffs for the 13th time in 14 years. They made the playoffs in 2017 despite a sub-par PK over the final 60 games, because their 5×5 defence was very good.

Every group needs to improve from goaltending to defence to the forwards.

Koskinen needs to be better, and so does Mike Smith. Tippett’s style should help, but it won’t guarantee their GAA improves if the players don’t play better. Cutting down on quality chances will help, and Alex Chiasson outlined how the forwards are responsible for too many goals against. New defensive coach Jim Playfair outlined to me his approach to helping the defencemen here.

“At the end of the day we have to defend better,” said Chiasson. “We spend too much time in our own end, and we have to become a team that is harder to play against in the offensive zone. A team that can create second, third and fourth chances and that will limit our time to defend. I didn’t watch a lot of playoff games, but the ones I did watch you see teams break out the puck really clean, there are up in the neutral zone and they play as a system of five. When you do those things you don’t have to defend as much as we did last year.”

So how much better do they have to be to be average?

They have to eliminate 27 goals against. Colorado was 16th in GA with 244. Essentially one fewer goal every three games.

Some of that will come via an improved PK, they hope, while the rest comes mainly at 5×5. Edmonton was 24th in 5×5 goals against with 179, while the Winnipeg Jets were average (16th) allowing 163. So 16 fewer goals at 5×5 for Edmonton to be average. That is one every five games.

Last year we witnessed one of the biggest defensive improvements from one year to the next when the Islanders went from allowing the most goals in the NHL in 2018, 293, to allowing the fewest at 191. It was a stunning turnaround, and they achieved it with essentially the same defensive corps, except @Devan Toews who replaced Calvin De Haan . They brought in new head coach Barry Trotz, who implemented more attention to the defensive end, and Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss stared 43 and 39 games respectively and posted .930 and .927 SV%. In 2018 Greiss started 25 games and had a .892sv%.

I’m not expecting the Oilers team defence to go from the outhouse to the penthouse in on year, but asking them to be average, which would put them in the race, isn’t unreasonable.

I believe much of their improvement must focus around their team defence and goaltending and come from smarter decisions, better positioning and playing the system properly.

What do you feel would be realistic improvements in these areas?

***Part two of this series will run tomorrow.***

After having such a blast over the past two years, we absolutely knew that we were going to organize another golf tourney for the summer and, after a few months of planning, we’re psyched to finally be able to launch our third annual golf tournament.

When – August 29th, 2019 (Thursday)

Where – Cougar Creek Golf Resort

How much – $1000/team or get in on the $900 Early Bird price until July 10th

Teams – Groups of Four (4)

How – Book your team here

As always, a portion of all proceeds from your ticket purchase will be donated directly to a local charity. This time we’ve partnered up with the Gregor Foundation to make sure that our kids are at their most handsome.

Recently by Jason Gregor:

Source: https://oilersnation.com/2019/07/04/how-will-the-edmonton-oilers-improve-part-one/