#decades of backwards thinking and negative behavior. while making it clear he was never a truly Bad Guy.

[forksofwisdom]

Embers of the Sun - chapter 5

Not beta read!

(Chapter 4) 

Read on ff.net!

Pairing: Bella/Paul, eventual Angela/Leah

Chapter summary: Momma Renée gives good advice, Charlie might not be that oblivious to the going-ons in Forks, Paul proves himself to be handy in a pinch - featuring Bella; the amazing grocery mountaineer and dinner at Billy’s turns into an eye-opening experience.

Chapter 5

Paranoia gripped Bella on the way home from school. The looming forest around Forks seemed to mock her with the horrors she knew lay within, and Bella was pretty miserable by the time she pulled into her driveway. She sat inside her truck for a moment, her keys biting into her skin as she deliberated the chances of Edward Cullen coming to extract vengeance for whatever crime he thought Bella had committed against him. The dark woods behind her house gave her the creeps. Anything could be lurking in the undergrowth while she was none the wiser. She was a sitting duck inside her truck, so she threw caution to the wind and ran inside.

Bella hated to admit it, but that boy scared her more than any wolves that might be running around La Push.

It might seem a little excessive, but Bella didn’t feel safe until she’d locked the doors that were accessible from outside the house and made sure to fasten all windows shut from the inside. She even went as far as securing the tiny one above the bathroom sink. Her overactive imagination went wild when she discovered that the latch on her bedroom window was faulty and it provided her with the scene of Edward sliding her window open in the dead of night, his eyes black eyes and pale skin gleaming in the moonlight. Bella knew for a fact that he could crush her windpipe easily, and envisioned how he’d render her mute while he tore her flesh to shreds.

She shuddered.

The vision had no basis in reality, but it disturbed Bella so much that she tied a thread between the handle on the bottom of her window and the little cactus Renée had given her so that if anyone were to open her window, it would knock the potted plant off the windowsill.

Hopefully, the noise would warn Bella of her inevitable doom.

She changed into her warmest clothes and made herself a piping cup of tea before planting herself on the living room couch to keep vigil. Now, that she had sat down and taken some time to gather herself, Bella wondered if she wasn’t over-reacting. Edward was probably just the typical angry teen who hasn’t grown out of his cootie phase yet. Anemia would explain his pasty skin and his black eyes might have been the result of unfortunate genes. If that turned out to be the case, Bella would just have to suck it up and get used to them.

That didn’t mean she was about to try and become bosom pals with him anytime soon.

The tea burned her tongue and sitting idly with only her thoughts to keep her company was making her antsy. Bella attempted to reign in her anxiety. She scraped her raw taste buds against her teeth, biting into the place where she’d burned herself. The pain grounded her, and she put her mug down and stood up in search of a better distraction.

Bella had inherited the habit of baking when she felt stressed from Renée - without the tendency to turn the kitchen into a disaster zone with ill-advised culinary experiments. She found herself in the kitchen gathering ingredients to make some bread. Her dad didn’t keep his kitchen stocked for unplanned baking, but Bella managed to scavenge what was needed to make a simple herb bread. Charlie had an odd collection of spices and a packet of dried yeast that was at least a decade old but Bella made due, and soon she was punching out her frustration at handsome demon boys by punching the dough.

It was an effective anger release.

Bella was sweating by the time she finished, and the poor dough was bound to be tough after being so abused. She put it away so it could rise and was washing her hands when the phone rang. The jarring noise caught her by surprise, and Bella sprayed water down her front.

“Get a grip!” she chided herself harshly and slammed her hands down on the metal rim of the sink. Her pulse raced with adrenaline, but she quickly grabbed the phone with shaky hands, unsurprised to see the number calling. She cleared her throat and tried to calm her nerves before answering. “Hey, mom.”

“How was school, hon?” Renée’s asked without preamble.

“Fine,” Bella sighed. It was the last thing she wanted to talk about right now, but it was nice to hear her mother’s voice. Renée apparently caught her dark tone and tried to lighten the mood.

“Meet any cute boys?” she teased good-naturedly.

She had no idea.

The image of Paul wearing nothing but shorts and wet from the rain elbowed its way into Bella’s mind, and she blushed as she tried to clean her dirty mind. Edward would have been a close second if he hadn’t terrified the living daylights out of her. She knew her mother was just worried that she would a hard time fitting in, but Bella knew from experience that if she kept her expectations low, there wouldn’t be any disappointment. It had worked in her favor today because she’d been pleasantly surprised when she made a friend. It was a rarity for her to connect so quickly with another person, but Angela was one of the kindest people Bella had ever met. It was hard not to like her.

“Well, there was one, but he turned out to be a complete asshole,” she admitted, thinking of Edward. There was no harm in playing along with her mother. Bella wouldn’t mention his freaky behavior for now, but all bets were off if he tried anything. Charlie would be the first to know what kind of guy was to be her lab partner.

Bella was not the type to go boy-crazy, but she enjoyed the evenings where her and Renée would stay up late and do girl things together. Renée called those times her ‘Bella-bonding’ time. Her liveliness and easygoing nature made it feel like Bella was hanging out with her best friend instead of her mother.

‘Bella-bonding’ had salvaged their relationship, which had been rocky ever since Bella shouldered some of Renée’s responsibility after having grown tired of her ditziness. She was ashamed to admit that she’d started to become resentful of their backward mother-daughter dynamic during junior year in high school and had been tempted to move to Forks then. The stress of keeping up with Renée had taken its toll, and the floodgates had opened when Bella tried to bottle it up. Instead of turning into an argument like Bella had feared it would, her mother had shown herself to be surprisingly sensible and capable of serious discussions. In the end, Bella decided to stay in Phoenix with Renée and Phil, and it was one of the best decisions she’d ever made. Phil helped a lot with taking care of things, and both Renée and Bella had come to rely on him to balance them out. Their bond had strengthened now that Renée was free to chase after whatever caught her fancy and Bella could be herself without drowning in obligations that shouldn’t have fallen on her shoulders in the first place.

“Oh?” Renée asked, intrigued.

“I sat next to him in biology, and I swear, no one’s ever glared at me like that. He acted as if I’d stabbed him with my pencil,” Bella muttered.

“Pay him no mind, Bella. Boys like that aren’t worth your time, and he’s hardly the only guy in town,” Renée reassured her.

“Yeah, you’re right,” Bella agreed quietly. She rubbed her forehead with a sigh. It was true. Edward wasn’t the only guy who’d been on Bella’s mind. Paul was still a mystery she was eager to crack.

“I am? Do you have another boy in mind?” Renée asked mischievously.

“What- I,” Bella spluttered, too flustered to think of a better answer. “No. Yes. Maybe?”

“Now this I got to hear. Who has my girl so wound up that she can’t speak?”

“He’s just a guy I met at the beach,” Bella admitted, omitting to say Paul’s name - there was no need to get ahead of herself. “I thought he was an asshole too at first, but then he smiled at me. I don’t know. He’s just confusing.”

“Have you talked to him?” Renée didn’t bother to hide her amusement at Bella’s frustration.

“No,” Bella admitted grudgingly.

“Well, you better tell me all about him. It’s about time you got some romance in your life,” Renée said encouragingly. Her mother had never understood why Bella was so disinterested in dating. It was so different from what Renée had been like in her youth. Bella was a bit of a homebody, but it wasn’t like she was averse to being in a relationship or falling in love. It was rather that no one in Phoenix had ever shown her any interest.

Maybe Forks could be different?

It occurred to her that she was probably getting her hopes up for nothing. A guy like Paul must have a girlfriend - someone as cool as Leah, or as graceful and beautiful as Alice. How could Bella compare to that? Her mood dampened, and she wanted to crawl underneath her blanket and forget about all the boys she’s ever met. Bella tried to find an excuse to hang up on her mother. “Can we talk about it later? I need to get dinner started.”

“Sure thing, hon,” Renée said quietly, but she knew Bella well enough to recognize the tone in her voice. “I can hear you doubting yourself, Bella. You’re a smart and beautiful girl, and I’m not just saying this as your mother. I know you hate it when I say this, but please try to relax and enjoy life, honey. You spend so much time inside your head and sometimes that negative little goblin distracts you from what’s right in front of you. Put an old mother’s heart at ease and try to make some friends.”

“Really, mom - a negative goblin?“ Bella scoffed, and Renée made a pleased sound at her own wit. "And you’re not old.”

“I know, but before you know it I’ll be speeding around on a scooter while Phil tries to keep up,” she joked and succeeded in drawing another laugh from Bella.

“I love you, mom.”

“Love you too, sweetheart!” Renée said as parting words. Bella held onto the receiver for a moment after the call disconnected and listened to the white noise as she mulled over her mother’s advice.

Relaxation was the furthest thing from her mind. There were too many secrets in this small town, and she had every intention of solving some of them. She put the phone down gently and went to get dinner ready while her bread was baking.

Being eaten by wolves sounded much more heroic than dying in the middle of a biology class.

“You ready to go, Bella?”

Bella looked up when Charlie called her name from the foyer. She was laying the table, the bread and the lasagna she’d cooked was ready to be eaten.

“Go where?” she called back, and there was a pause before Charlie poked his head inside.

“To Billy’s,” he said, raising his brow when he saw the food. Bella gasped when she remembered the invite Charlie had told her about yesterday.

“Oh, no! I completely forgot!” she moaned into her hands and Charlie watched her in bemusement.

“Relax, it’s not the end of the world,” he said. Bella looked at him between her fingers and saw that he was trying not to laugh at her.

“But I made dinner!” She pointed emphatically at the meal she’d prepared, trying to get him to understand how rude and inconsiderate she’d been for having forgotten their plans.

“So? Just leave it there, and we’ll put it in the fridge once it’s cooled,” Charlie said, clearly wondering why Bella was getting so worked up about this. “We’ll eat it tomorrow.”

“Yeah.” Bella rubbed her forehead. “Yeah, you’re right. I’m being silly.”

“No, you’re not. You just had other stuff going on.” Charlie clapped her on the back and went to investigate the bread, sniffing the air. “This smells delicious.”

“Thanks, we’re out of rosemary by the way.” Bella stood up and put the jug of water she’d placed on the table back into the fridge. “I’m coming. Let me grab my coat.”

“Put on some shoes while you’re at it,” Charlie called after her.

They took her truck, and Charlie offered to drive. Bella was tempted to argue but thought better of it and tossed him the key.

“I hope you don’t mind,” Charlie said as Bella was putting on her seatbelt and held up the end he’d sliced off the bread. She shook her head but was surprised when he ripped it into two and handed her the other half.

“Thanks.” She took it and bit into it. It was still warm but a bit too salty for her taste. Charlie evidently didn’t think so because he stuffed his half into his mouth and made a sound of appreciation at the taste.

“Jesus, this is good! Where did you learn how to bake?” he asked. The truck growled to life, and they pulled out of the dive.

“Just a habit.” Bella shrugged, hiding a smile.

“Well, feel free to do it again because this is excellent.” Charlie didn’t give compliments freely, mainly because it made him feel awkward, but when he did it was more often than not about food. His words still touched Bella.

“I will,” she promise.

“We’ll need to stop for gas,” he remarked after looking at the dashboard and Bella heaved a sigh. Another thing she’d forgotten to do today. Charlie looked over at her. “School go okay? You look tired.”

“It was fine.” Bella was relieved that she’d already spoken to her mother. The thought of trying to ‘Bella-bond’ with Charlie was hilarious - he would probably arrest himself before speaking to her about feelings and boys. Bella’s answer was half-hearted at best, and Charlie frowned at her, his worry evident in his gaze, so she tried to reassure him. “I made a new friend. Her name is Angela Weber.”

“That’s great, Bella.” His shoulders slumped and the pinch between his brows smoothed out. “Weber - any relation to Pastor Weber?”

“She’s his daughter,” Bella confirmed.

“He’s a good man,” Charlie said as they pulled up to the gas station.

He stepped out, and Bella sat back. She examined her fingers and fiddled with them restlessly as she remembered the conversation she’d had with Jake on the beach. It was sad to think that anyone in La Push was struggling with addiction. Everyone she’d spoken to there had been incredibly kind to her.

A sudden thought nagged at Bella. Was she a bad person for harboring the desire to meet Paul and find out with kind of person he was even though she was completely turned off by the thought of him being into drugs? It seemed so shallow to pursue her interest despite the massive issue - it was like a terrible idea to enter a relationship with the desire to change one’s partner.

Charlie climbed in, and they were back on the road when Bella realized that there wasn’t anything to backup Jacob’s claim. He’d even told her that he was just repeating rumors. If anyone had answers about any lawbreaking in the area, it would be Charlie. Bella deliberated for a moment about how to bring it up. She settled on the direct approach.

“Hey, dad. Are there any, um, drug-related problems in La Push?”

“Not that I’m aware of - what’s brought this on?” Her line of question visibly surprised him.

“Just something Jake said.” Bella shrugged, unable to meet his gaze, and Charlie sighed.

“Ah, he’s told you about Sam and those boys?”

“So it’s true? I thought you said there weren’t any drugs there.” Disappointment churned in her gut.

“I did. Sam’s got a bad rep, Lord knows why, but he’s never been in trouble with the law. Don’t know much about the other two but I’ve met Mr. Lahote - what’s his boy’s name?” Charlie snapped his finger until he found the name. “Paul or something like that - good man; he used to be a deputy in La Push. Retired now, though.”

“Really? Isn’t he a bit young to be retired? Paul appeared to be around my age.” Bella frowned.

“Poor guy got mauled by a bear about a year ago. It’s amazing the guy’s still breathing, let alone walking. Mind you, he uses a cane to get around these days,” Charlie ran a hand over his face, and Bella notices how the headlights of passing cars made her father look decades older than he was.

“That’s awful!”  The attack must have been gruesome if the trauma still hampered Mr. Lahote’s ability to walk. Bella had never seen the aftermath of an animal attack, but it couldn’t be pretty. Paul’s father must have scars - a constant reminder of the beast that had nearly killed him. Her heart went out to him. It couldn’t have been easy.

“Yeah, there seem to be a lot of bear attacks around there,” Charlie said with quiet speculation. His frustration was evident, and he let out an explosive sigh. “Never found the beast though.”

“Do you think it’s the one beast?” Bella didn’t miss the singular.

“That’s what the expert said,” Charlie revealed. “The odd thing was that he couldn’t pin down exactly what type of animal was behind the attacks. The prints we found when we searched the woods were unlike any bear tracks he’d ever seen - said they were canine looking.”

“Could it be wolves?” Bella asked after a moment of silence. Her pulse had sped up at Charlie’s admission. Whatever had attacked those people was likely still roaming free in the wood. How many unsuspecting hikers have wandered inside and come close to meeting it without being aware of its presence? She felt queasy at the thought. “I saw some paw prints outside Billy’s during our last visit.” Bella couldn’t help wondering what would have happened if she hadn’t seen them and kept going. Would she still be here today?

“You be careful around those woods, Bells. You hear me? There are plenty of creatures in there that could make a meal out of you,” Charlie warned.

“But have there been any wolf attacks?” She needed an answer to the question.

“Naw, with claw, marks the size of the ones I saw on Mr. Lahote; it could only be a bear. They were too big to be made by a wolf,” he said grimly. “Besides, wolves don’t use their claws; they bite their prey.”

Bella hunkered down in her seat and wondered if she counted as prey.

Jacob was standing on the porch when they pulled up into their drive. They returned his wave and got out of the truck.

“They’re here!” Jacob called inside and turned back to them with a smile. “Dad needs me to grab some, uh-” he apparently forgot what it was because he turned to shout inside again. “What was it you needed again, dad?”

“Salmonberry vinaigrette! And grab some paper towels while you’re there Jacob!” came Billy’s voice. “Stop blocking the doorway and let them in!”

“Sure thing, pops!” Jacob laughed and jumped down from the porch. He clapped Charlie on the back in greeting. “Wanna join me, Bella?”

“I think it’s safer if I do - you’ll probably come home with strawberry jam and toilet paper if we let you go alone,” Bella said with wry amusement and Jacob pretended to pout.

“Best not to keep your dad waiting, Jacob,” Charlie said before he went inside.

“C’mon, I’ll drive.” Jacob smiled, and they hopped into Billy’s black truck. The car was equipped with manual controls that catered to Billy’s needs and the drive to the store was laughably short. Jacob looked over at her and drawled. “How’s life?”

“Hectic,” Bella answered truthfully. Her mind was still reeling after Charlie’s revelation, but she wasn’t aware of the pinch forming between her brows that gave away her worry. Jacob raised his eyebrows and evidently thought Bella was in need of a dose of humor. He pulled up in front of the store and turned off the engine.

“Ok, we need a plan of action.” He faced her with a grimness that took her by surprise.

“What is this? Mission impossible?” Bella’s face twisted with bewildered amusement. “I thought we were going shopping?”

“I take my grocery shopping very seriously, Bella.” Jacob’s eyes glimmered with mirth, and he flipped his hair theatrically. “I can’t risk you blowing this operation if your mind isn’t in the game.”

“I’m sorry.” Bella caught on and schooled her face. “What’s the plan, boss?”

“That’s the spirit. We’ll split up to cover more ground - I’ll scout the vinaigrette, and you track down the napkins. Capiche?” He pointed his finger at her.

“Got it. I won’t disappoint you.” Bella nodded with such a severe expression that Jacob broke character when he couldn’t suppress his grin.

They jumped out of the car and walked inside. The bell rang when Jacob pushed the door open, and the girl sitting behind the counter looked up from her book.

“Hey, Jake,” she greeted, and Jacob automatically headed towards her.

“Hey, Patricia.” They were most likely in the same grade, but Bella was on a mission. She wasn’t in the mood to hang around while they exchanged pleasantries. School - and Edward - had exhausted her and her human-interaction meter for the day had reached its limit.

“What kind of napkins, boss?” she asked Jacob quickly.

“One of those white paper towels on a roll.” Jacob gave her a thumbs up as she backed away, heading deeper into the store.

It was much smaller than the one in Forks, but they still had a decent variety. Bella walked past a display of a large lawn mower that was sitting on one of the metal shelves. The isles were narrow, and she searched high and low for the frustratingly elusive napkins. She had to circle the paper product section three times before she finally found them.

It seemed like fate wasn’t on Bella’s side today because the paper towels were on the top shelf and this time there was no stepping stool in sight for her to use. Bella tried jumping at first, and her fingers nudged the packet but ultimately pushed it back and out of sight. She landed with a frustrated huff and backed away, going up onto the tips of her toes to see how far back she’d accidentally pushed it. The packet was up against the wall now, and there was no way she could reach it.

Bella could feel it mocking her.

The shelves were sturdy - the lawn mower could attest to that and Bella hardly weighed as much as that monstrosity. To be on the cautious side, she tried to give the structure a little shake and was satisfied when it didn’t budge. Bella felt a thrill when she heaved herself up. She took great care of watching where she put her feet, remembering the last time she tried to reach for something inside a grocery store. It was much easier to climb instead of stretching up after an object since her weight was more evenly distributed. Or at least that’s what she thought. Bella was almost to the top and rested her right arm on the highest shelf. The paper towels were in sight, and she went on her toes to gain another inch, reaching her left hand toward them.

Almost there.

She started to slip.

Almost-

“Need a hand there, short-stuff?”

Someone grabbed hold of her thighs and lifted her up like they were doing a cheerleader routine. Bella lurched forward with a yelp but grabbed hold of the paper towels when her face pressed into the plastic wrap. She pulled back, and the hand on her butt steadied her.

“You better get your hands off my ass, Jacob Black.” Bella bit out and froze when he let out a bark of laughter. That was not Jake. She peered down and saw that it was Paul. Her eyes widened as her brain short-circuited, and he smirked up at her.

“You got a hold of it?” Paul asked her and Bella nodded mutely. To his credit, his hands didn’t linger, and he lowered her effortlessly to the ground. Bella swayed as her feet touched the floor and he steadied her. The heat of his palms melted through the fabric of her shirt and warmed her skin. Bella felt a blush crawl up her cheeks.

He let go of her but didn’t seem inclined to move back.

She blinked and gripped the packet of paper towels to her chest as she tried to register the fact that she was standing face to face with Paul Lahote - the guy who she couldn’t seem to get off her mind. He was just as attractive as Bella had predicted, even in the unflattering lighting that seemed to be universal to grocery stores around the country. She couldn’t help but admire his high cheekbones and the sharp ridge of his nose now that she was up close.

It was his eyes that got her.

They were a rich brown, and it was astonishing to Bella how beautiful they were, having always thought her own brown eyes to be rather dull. His gaze was intense, and she felt a thrill run through her as she bore the entirety of his attention. She noticed that he was wearing a shirt for once, a black t-shirt to be exact. His shoulders were broad, and Bella absently noted how fit he looked.

Paul was unfairly hot for a guy wearing jorts and sandals.

“You’re catching flies,” he said with a self-satisfied smirk, and Bella snapped her slackened mouth closed.

“Thanks for the help,” she said begrudgingly, humiliated at having been caught ogling him.

“You’re welcome,” he said and extended his hand for her to take. “Paul Lahote, at your service.”

“Hi.” Bella fumbled with her bounty and took his hand. His palm engulfed her slim hand, and he shook it with exaggerated slowness. Her brows raised at the furnace-like heat Paul radiated and wondered if her hands, which were chronically chilled, felt like the ones of a cold corpse to him. He didn’t seem to mind and was looking at her expectantly. She realized she hadn’t introduced herself and stumbled over her words. “Bella. I’m Bella Swan.”

His warmth lingered when they let go, and Bella curled her fist to her chest, trying to savor the heat.

“So, does Jake touch your ass a lot, Bella?” he asked out of nowhere, and Bella wanted to sink through the floor. Her face burned red as her blush increased.

“What? No!” she sputtered.

“Hey, I had to ask.” He shrugged, and his raised brow told her he was jesting. “It’s not every day a cute girl gets me mixed up with a pipsqueak like Jake.”

“Cute?” Bella drew up a blank at how to respond and repeated the word, her mind latching onto it. Paul thought she was cute.

“Hell, yeah.” He nodded and eyed her shamelessly. Bella stared at him. She’d never met anyone this brazen.

“Thanks?” It came out as more of a question and Paul evidently found it amusing because his stupid smirk widened.

“You’re welcome.”

Bella was woefully inept at flirtation - Paul was undoubtedly hitting on her, even a dense girl like her could see that - and tried to gain some control over the conversation. “Aren’t you cold?” she blurted the first thing that popped into her mind.

Real smooth, Bella.

“I’m hot,” Paul said, and Bella couldn’t help but laugh at how corny the line was. This turn of events was far beyond anything she’d imagined happening for their first conversation. He appeared entirely at ease while she scrambled to find something to say.

“Bella, c’mon we’re late!” It was Jacob. Her mind screamed at him to go away and let her have this moment. She widened her eyes at Jacob pointedly. Couldn’t he see how important this was? He ignored her look and glared at Paul, looking ready to march over to them.

“Thanks for the help, Paul,” Bella said, hoping to prevent the scene Jacob would undoubtedly make if he joined them. Paul didn’t seem perturbed. Jacob was a pipsqueak in his eyes, as he’d worded it, and Bella couldn’t help but agree. Paul looked like he could take care of himself in any fight, verbal or physical.

“I’ll see you around, Bella,” Paul told her and Bella liked the way her name sounded on his lips.

“Yeah, see you, Paul.” She gave him a little wave before turning around and walked reluctantly over to Jacob in half a daze. Her heart fluttered inside her chest, and she squeezed the paper towels close in an attempt to calm it. Paul Lahote had Isabella Swan cute!

“What the hell was that, Bella? ‘I’ll see you around’?” Jacob asked her in a hushed whisper. “I told you he’s trouble. You shouldn’t even have spoken to him!”

“Paul helped me reach those napkins, Jacob. He was nothing but polite to me.” Bella scoffed, trying to suppress her annoyance.

“I didn’t like the way he was looking at you,” Jacob grumbled, shooting a dark look over her head. She glanced over her shoulder and saw that Paul was still standing in the same spot she’d left him in. His face displayed his annoyance at Jacob’s interruption, but he switched gears when he noticed her looking. Paul waved at her with a grin before turning on his heel and walking out of the store. He hadn’t bought anything.

“You’re overreacting,” Bella said firmly, but Jacob looked like he was about to argue. She forced the paper towels into his chest. “I’m going to wait in the car.”

Paul wasn’t anywhere in sight when she made it out onto the parking lot, and Bella climbed up into Billy’s truck and folded her arms across her chest. She was tempted to sulk at Jacob for having cut her time with Paul short, but the excitement of having spoken to him was too high. He’d called her cute!

Jacob joined her before she had time to analyze the exchange any further. He sighed and drove them to his house before speaking. “I just don’t want you to get hurt. You’re my friend, Bella.”

Bella thawed and punched him lightly in the shoulder. “I know, Jake, but I’m a big girl. Try to dictate me again, and you’ll regret it.”

“Ouch, the girl’s got claws,” Jacob said, clutching his shoulders and stumbling out of the car. Goofball. Bella laughed, and they went inside to showcase their bounty.

“Hey, dad. We got everything you wanted,” Jacob said, waving the grocery bag over his head when they entered the kitchen.

“Good,” Billy said. He was sitting at the dining table with Charlie, his trademark hat absent for once. His long hair was tousled, and he bore a slightly frazzled look.

“Mind if I grab a beer, Bella?” Charlie asked. Bella shook her head, and he snagged the six-pack Billy had placed on the counter. “You want one, Billy?

“No, I’m good. I have an early meeting with the Council tomorrow,” Billy said with a shake of his head.

“Oh, yeah?” Charlie sat down again and faced him. Jacob and Bella hovered by the kitchen counter, exchanging a glance when Billy exhaled wearily.

“We’ve been discussing mitigation plans in case of a hazard.” He gave a wan smile.

‘Hazard?’ Bella mouthed at Jacob, but he shook his head and looked away.

“Anything dire?” Charlie asked, taking a sip of his beer.

“Congress finally listened to our concerns about the high tides and rising Quileute River. They’ve set aside land for us on higher grounds, but it’ll take us years to scrounge up the money we need to fund the move.” Billy rubbed his forehead and Charlie lowered his beer with a nod of understanding. This didn’t appear to be news to him.

“How bad are things looking?” he asked Bill quietly, shooting a glance at Bella who was listening with open curiosity.

“Our school is well within the inundation zone, and we’re going to start running Tsunami drills. We can’t be unprepared if it happens - it could wipe out an entire generation if it should happen during a school day.”

“I didn’t know things were this serious,” Bella breathed. This was terrible - children were at risk!

“It’s the politics that’s making things so difficult,” Billy agreed.

“I didn’t know the tribe was still active,” Bella admitted and flushed at how ignorant her statement sounded.

“The Quileute Tribe is a sovereign nation.” Billy’s tone had taken on an educational note, and Bella listened with rapt attention. “We make decisions on how best to balance community and tradition. We help protect our sacred and ceremonial areas including the preservation of historical artifacts.”

“Billy here is the Chief,” Charlie said in a small attempt to lighten the mood.

“That’s Head Chairman Black to you, sir!” Billy laughed and slapped him on the back.

“I didn’t know that,” Bella admitted.

“That’s enough politics for the day,” Billy said. “Jacob, can you lay the table while I get this darned fish ready for eating?”

“I got you, pops.”

“Can I help with anything?” Bella asked.

“Can you get me a lemon from the fridge?” Billy asked her as he backed from the table. Bella nodded but felt weird about rummaging through the contents of their fridge. It felt like a violation of their privacy in some way. Billy picked up on her discomfort.

“I trust you more with that fridge than Jacob! Feel free to act like you’re at home, Bella. After all, you’re family!” Billy laughed like he was enjoying a private joke. Jacob rolled his eyes at Bella.

Dinner was delicious; salmon and roasted potatoes accompanied the vinaigrette her and Jacob had bought. Desert was apple pie and whipped cream, courtesy of the Clearwaters.

“This was one heck of a meal,” Charlie said, patting his belly with a sigh. Bella agreed.

The shrewd light in Billy’s eyes hadn’t dimmed throughout the entire evening, and he paid more attention to Bella than she’d expected, asking her all kinds of questions. She did her best to answer them, but she feared that her face was stained a permanent red from all the attention she was receiving today.

“It might be good for you to meet more people your age,” Billy said with a nod of encouragement. “There will be a barbeque here next weekend if you’re interested in coming. There won’t be a lot of people - only a couple of family friends. The Clearwaters will be there.”

“Wait, there is?” Jacob asked through a mouthful of pie. His cheeks bulged comically, and Billy sent him a look of despair.

“Chew your food, Jacob. And yes - Sam’s organizing it.”

“As in Sam Uley?” Bella asked. Her interest was piqued. It was very likely that Paul would be there. Billy nodded.

“Of course, you’re invited as well, Charlie,” Billy said, and Charlie raised his beer can in salute. They turned their attention back to Bella. “What do you say, Bella? Are you interested in joining us?”

Did she want to spend an evening with Sam and Paul? Bella didn’t have to think for long.

“Yes, I would be honored to.”

Next chapter: The gym teacher let Bella loose in class, and now she’s sporting a black eye. Bella goes to Sam’s barbeque and realizes that it’s her birthday.

[cryptobully-blog]

The Future Of Bitcoin, From A Finance Perspective - Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF (Pending:COIN)

http://cryptobully.com/the-future-of-bitcoin-from-a-finance-perspective-winklevoss-bitcoin-trust-etf-pendingcoin/

The Future Of Bitcoin, From A Finance Perspective - Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF (Pending:COIN)

Introduction

One of the more controversial topics in the Bitcoin community right now is the debate over what, fundamentally, Bitcoin is. Is it primarily a currency? A store of value? A hybrid of both, or something else entirely? The face of the matter (and part of the fun) is that no one knows. Anyone who says they know exactly what Bitcoin will become is either a liar or a fool. That said, we can make some educated guesses based on an understanding of behavioral economics and a sound grasp of the dynamics that power the global financial system.

Before we talk about what Bitcoin is likely to become, let’s talk about what it almost certainly won’t, and that’s as a currency/medium of exchange. This is, to put it mildly, a controversial view in the online Bitcoin community, which still largely clings to “Satoshi’s Vision”1 with an almost religious fervor. According to this line of thought, if Satoshi’s White Paper says something, then it’s considered established fact. If it doesn’t, it isn’t. And since the White Paper says that Bitcoin is meant to become a currency, then it should be a self evident truth that it’s future is as a currency, and we should leave it at that. As you may have realized by now, I’m not a disciple of Satoshi. I don’t think he’s infallible, and I won’t mindlessly accept his decade old opinions as dogma.

To be clear, Satoshi was obviously a brilliant coder and visionary, and if I were seeking guidance on anything to do with the coding or technical aspects of Bitcoin, he’d be at the top of the list. What he isn’t, though, is an economist. If he were, he would realize that whatever Bitcoin’s future is, it isn’t primarily as a medium of exchange. Why? Because of one of Bitcoin’s main selling points: it is deflationary. Everything we know about human economic behavior tells us that deflationary assets make terrible currencies, because consumers don’t spend them, they save them. This makes perfect intuitive sense. Why would I, as a rational consumer, purchase goods or services in a deflationary currency that I expect to be worth more in the future (and if I didn’t, why would I ever buy Bitcoin in the first place?) when I can make the same purchase in inflationary fiat currency that I know will be worth less? The obvious answer is, of course, I wouldn’t. And when I factor in the fees and costs associated with obtaining my Bitcoin in the first place, and then again at the point of sale, it makes the case for use as a currency fall apart even more. 2

Gresham’s Law

The dynamic we explore above (consumer behavior regarding inflationary currencies vs. deflationary) is simply the modern version of a well established behavioral economic dynamic that has been so consistently observed throughout human history that there’s a name for it; Gresham’s Law3. Specifically, Gresham’s Law states:

“All things being equal, bad money will always drive out good.”

What this means is, assuming two commodities can both be used as money and have the same face value, the money perceived more valuable will soon disappear from circulation, as people spend the “bad” money and hold onto the “good” money. This originally referred to coins with actual precious metal content vs coins that did not (coins with actual gold/silver content tended to be hoarded for their intrinsic value, while less intrinsically valuable coins were spent for their face value), but the dynamic is still the same. Applied to cryptos, the “good” is the one that is expected to rise in value (Bitcoin) while the “bad” money is the one that is known will decrease in value (fiat). So, according to Gresham’s Law, we would expect consumers to spend their fiat, and save their Bitcoin. Which is – unsurprisingly – exactly what we see when we look at the entirety of the Bitcoin experiment. Surely if Bitcoin was going to become a currency, we’d at least see the beginning of that dynamic starting to form. We don’t. To this day, ten years in, even though Bitcoin has gone from being worth nothing to a market cap reaching $200 billion, the usage of any cryptocurrency as a medium of exchange is almost nonexistent. This is yet more evidence that Satoshi was wrong. Even if one allowed that the “Bitcoin as currency” idea was reasonable in 2009, the decade of real world usage since then becomes the much more relevant data point, and if Satoshi tells us one thing, but empirical evidence tells us another, we would be wise to believe in the evidence. Otherwise, Bitcoin becomes a faith based ideology, and that’s something a rational mind cannot accept.

For those that may be disappointed by this, I offer this consolation: Be glad that Bitcoin will never become the world’s primary currency. It would be a disaster of epic proportions. America, like all industrial nations, is primarily a consumer driven economy. Consumer driven economies need a small annual inflation rate to encourage spending. This is why the Fed targets an inflation rate of 2% annually, which is generally regarded as the “sweet spot”: high enough to encourage spending, but low enough to keep the negative effects of inflation (mostly a decoupling of the inflation rate relative to wage growth)at a minimum. Spending is what drives the economy, and anything that discourages spending tends to act as a drag on it. To that end, one of the primary factors that discourages spending is – wait for it – deflationary currencies! If we ever found ourselves in an economy where the only currency available to use was one that was deflationary (and there’s never been a currency even remotely as deflationary as Bitcoin) it would be catastrophic. Consumer spending would plummet to levels not seen before and the economy would enter a recession that would make the Great Depression look like the party. Not an ideal situation. And also, thankfully, almost certainly not going to happen.

With all those words discussing what Bitcoin probably won’t become, let’s spend a few discussing what it probably will.

Store of Value

One surefire way to get into an argument with a old school Bitcoiner is to tell them that Bitcoin’s value lies not as a currency but as a store of value. I’ve yet to hear a persuasive argument against this, but it can cause great agitation. Usually, the argument you’ll hear goes something like this: “nothing can be a store of value unless it first has a use case”. This is both devoid of any basis in fact, and also demonstrably wrong. A store of value is in itself a use case. For a real world example, we need look no further then the #1 store of value in the financial system, gold. “NO!!” this person will tell you. “Gold is used as a store of value because of it’s traditional role as a currency!”. Again, incorrect. Whatever value the market gives to gold in 2017, it is entirely due to whatever use it has in 2017. The market is not going to pay gold (or any asset) because of what it used to do. It will only ever give market share to an asset for what it can do today – or possibly tomorrow – but never yesterday. And since gold is not used as a currency today in any remotely significant way, it is reasonable to surmise that roughly 0% of gold’s market value today is due to it’s historical role as a currency.

Perhaps the confusion is simply semantics. “Store of value” is admittedly vague and loosely defined. Lots of things, with varying levels of effectiveness, can be considered “stores of value” from art, to stamps, to cash, to real estate. For the next few minutes, forget the term. Instead, think of the term “insurance policy.” Nobody doubts that an insurance policy is a real and tangible product that has intrinsic value. Consumers buy insurance to protect themselves from a variety of unpleasant surprises, such as car accidents or untimely death. When people talk about gold as a “store of value” what they’re really talking about is gold as an insurance policy for investor portfolios against a myriad of risks. Inflation, for sure, is one thing investors want to be protected from. But also from market crashes, wars, terrorist attacks, or any other black swan type event. Gold tends to outperform other asset classes during such events, and this fact is why it’s generally considered best practices to have a certain allotment of gold exposure for every portfolio (usually in the 10% range), and why the market currently pays gold several trillion dollars to play this role. So the next time someone tells you that “Bitcoin must have a use case to be a store of value!” remind them that “store of value” is simply another term for “insurance policy” which of course is a use case in and of itself, as evidenced by the multi trillion global insurance industry which does nothing but sell these products. Below, I’ll make the argument that Bitcoin is a superior store of value to gold in every way that matters and – as tends to happen when a superior product comes to market – we should expect Bitcoin to steal market share from gold in the coming years. In doing so, I’ll lay out a case for Bitcoin to become a major pillar of the global financial system, with a market cap in the trillions (which would imply a Bitcoin price probably well into the six figures). All this, without the need to ever be used in any significant way as a medium of exchange.

What Is a Store of Value?

Contrary to what some may say, gold is not currently the financial systems primary insurance policy (i.e. “store of value”) because of it’s historical role as a currency. There is a connection, but this has it backwards; rather, the same properties that made gold a logical choice for an Iron Age currency also make it a logical choice for a modern age financial insurance policy. What properties make for a good store of value? This list is by no means exhaustive, but the primary ones are:

Rarity

Difficult to counterfeit (ideally impossible)

Ability to track total global supply (the more accurate, the better)

Divisibility

Broad recognition and acceptance

I’ll briefly discuss each one and compare the properties of each asset in relation to it.

Rarity

Probably the most important property of a store of value is that the supply cannot be easily or artificially increased, as any material that could be would cannot be easily produced (i.e. rare) and it cannot be easy to counterfeit. For our Iron Age ancestors, gold fit the bill. It occurs so rarely in the natural world that total supply could not grow faster then the wealth it was meant to store, which meant it held onto that value quite well. At the risk of stating the obvious, the more difficult it is to increase supply of a store of value asset, the better, especially in the modern world of inflationary fiat currencies. As these inflationary currencies inevitably lose value over time, an asset that has a static or much slower increase in supply will tend to keep it’s value (or appreciate) over time relative to the fiat currencies they’re priced in. This is one of the primary purposes of a modern store of value: to retain or appreciate it’s value relative to inflationary fiat currencies. A commodity that is insufficiently rare would not be able to achieve this objective. Note “rarity” in this context doesn’t mean how rare something is in society. It simply means the ease which with it can be produced. As good as gold performs in this regard, it can’t beat Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s algorithm places a hard cap on the number of coins that will ever be produced, only 21 million Bitcoins will ever be mined. That’s it. Once those are produced, the supply will remain static forever. Of the 21 million coins, approximately 17 million have already been mined. That means 80% of the entire possible supply already exists, and the rest will be mined at such a steady and predictable rate that we can accurately estimate when the final coin will be produced (which should occur on or around 2140 AD, give or take a year, (although as we can see in Fig 1, the majority will be mined within a few decades). In the context of ever inflating fiat currencies, this hard cap on supply suggests an asset that is superior to gold in the role of inflation hedge.

Gold: Rare

Bitcoin: Rarer

Edge: Bitcoin

(Fig 1)

Difficult to Counterfeit

Obviously, a substance that can be easily copied is useless as a store of value. Gold was an early winner in this contest. It had physical properties that even an Iron Age merchant could be reasonably sure of it’s legitimacy: extreme malleability, unusual heft, and a distinct soft warm glow combined to make gold a uniquely suitable metal, very difficult to counterfeit. To this day there are very few naturally occurring substances that are superior to gold in these areas. Of course, Bitcoin is not a naturally occurring substance. Bitcoin isn’t difficult to fake or counterfeit; it’s impossible. It’s beyond the scope of this article to discuss the specific mathematical algorithms that secure the blockchain (here’s a short video if you want a summary and there’s plenty of information available online if you want to really dig into the weeds). If you’re mathematically inclined, here’s a mathematician’s explanation of what it would take to “hack” Bitcoin. Long story short, it would take the fastest supercomputers around 6 times longer then the age of the universe (about 78 billion years) and would require more power then humans currently produce. Needless to say, it’s not gonna happen.

Gold: Hard to counterfeit

Bitcoin: Impossible to counterfeit

Edge: Bitcoin

Trackability of Global Supply

It goes without saying that any asset used as a vehicle to store value or act as an inflation hedge needs to have a mechanism so that investors can accurately track it’s global supply. Without that information, price discovery would be impossible. The more accurately investors can handicap global supply, the more effective that asset will be as a store of value. Any fuzziness on the supply side of the equation will lead to a proportionate inefficiency on the price side. Thus, the more precisely the market can know the supply, the more efficiently it can price the asset, and if there’s one thing markets love, it’s efficiency. As far as traditional investment assets go, gold has been the (pardon the pun) gold standard in this regard. It’s long history of being valued by almost everyone means that, for the most part, most gold ever mined still sits in circulation, which allows investors to have a reasonably accurate estimate of total global supply. Of course we cannot be 100% precise. Surely there is some gold that has been hoarded and forgotten, lost at sea, sitting in grandma’s attic, etc. Not to mention we know very little about how much gold was mined in prehistoric times, even though gold artifacts over 6000 years old are known to exist. None of it huge amounts, but tally it all together and it certainly would be enough to give a fairly broad margin of error in global gold stock estimates, with estimates between 5-20%. All in all, the fact that our gold supply estimates are probably the most accurate of all asset doesn’t mean that it’s satisfactory. Even a 5% margin for error can mean hundreds of billions of dollars are misallocated in gold, and creates distortions in the global market. Contrast that with Bitcoin. Because of it’s digital nature, we can accurately assess the total global supply down to the nearest decimal point, in real time. This sort of accuracy is unheard of and in this regard Bitcoin simply has no peer in the current global financial system. This sort of hyper accuracy makes price discovery much easier, and much, much more efficient, a crucial property for any asset vying to dethrone gold as the primary store of value asset.

Gold: reasonably accurate supply tracking (by traditional standards)

Bitcoin: Hyper accurate, real time supply tracking

Edge: Bitcoin

Divisibility

One of the properties of gold that made it an early favorite as money thousands of years ago was it’s divisibility. Gold truly is amazingly malleable. A single gram of the stuff can be beaten into a uniform 1 sq ft sheet. It can be beaten so thin that it becomes transparent while still holding it’s integrity. This sort of malleability made it very easily divisible for our ancestors. Divisibility allowed merchants and consumers the ability to customize their economic behavior to match the resources they have available. Tiny amounts of gold could be separated from larger chunks for smaller purchases, and many small chunks could easily be smelted into one large piece. In the modern world, divisibility is less important, but it’s still a relevant factor. As you may have guessed, Bitcoin’s divisibility is basically infinite. Not literally, of course, but the smallest available unit is the Satoshi, a unit that can be measured to 8 decimal points (0.00000001 BTC). At a Bitcoin price of $15,000/USD, one Satoshi would cost investors $0.00015. Needless to say, this is for all practical purposes, infinite divisibility, and allows investors the ability to purchase exactly as much or as little as they need to protect the rest of their investment portfolio.

Gold: Really good

Bitcoin: Infinitely better

Edge: Bitcoin

Broad Recognition and Acceptance

This is self explanatory. If value is in the eye of the beholder, the best stores of value will also be the ones with the most broad based recognition and acceptance. It goes without saying that gold has passed this test with flying colors throughout all of recorded human history. This is the one property that gold retains a decisive edge over Bitcoin. It’s also the only one that is not a fundamental property of the asset itself (i.e. Bitcoin could some day overtake gold in acceptance, but gold will never be more divisible then Bitcoin, or be able to be inventoried more accurately). There is much game theory involved in store of value assets. They rely on the “common knowledge” dynamic for their value. For example, gold has value because it’s “common knowledge” that other people value it as well. The more confident I am that I can reuse that gold to purchase my own goods and services later, the more likely I am to accept gold as payment for the goods or services I’m providing. To that end, the only thing required here in longevity. Bitcoin is in that weird middle ground between “definitely not going to be a permanent thing” and “definitely a permanent thing”. The longer Bitcoin sticks around and retains value on the global Bitcoin exchange (especially if that value keeps going up) the more investors will gain confidence that it is indeed sticking around, and eventually, as the market matures, it will become “common knowledge” that Bitcoin has value, and investors will be much more open to using Bitcoin as a store of value asset.

Gold: Universally recognized and accepted as valuable

Bitcoin: Trending in the right direction, but not there yet

Edge: Gold

And there you have it. Of all the inherent properties of the two assets, Bitcoin is superior to gold in almost every way that matters. As well, beyond the purely physical properties, there are other dynamics at play that would cause the global financial community to prefer Bitcoin over gold as the go-to store of value asset. Storage and transportability, for example. Gold is heavy. It’s costly to transport and protect. And of course, it exists in the physical world, which puts it at a distinct disadvantage to a digital asset that can be transported anywhere in the world instantly for a fraction of a fraction of the cost of transporting gold. It can be safeguarded for far less (security will consist of best practice protocols and redundant digital security rather then the expensive and cumbersome brute force of armed guards and steel vaults). The costs of guarding and transporting gold is passed on to investors, and the significantly reduced overhead costs of dealing with Bitcoin means that savings would get passed on to investors and less of their capital would get eroded in fees and overhead.

Another dynamic that could propel Bitcoin to become a major asset class is as a safe haven. Safe haven assets are places where investors can put their capital during times of global tensions or some form of geopolitical worries. Gold is a safe haven asset. So are some currencies, such as the USD and JPY. The thinking goes, these currencies belong to the worlds largest, most stable economies. They should be able to weather the storm better then perhaps some other risky assets. A flaw in all these assets is they are not separate from the global financial system, they’re a part of it. Putting your capital into the Yen of USD to protect it during geopolitical tensions isn’t going to do much good if the tensions are that, hypothetically, North Korea detonates a nuke over Tokyo, or a trade war erupts between America and China. Bitcoin has the benefit of being outside the system. It has no physical location, it can’t be destroyed. As Bitcoins use as a store of value increases (and with it, investor confidence) it seems likely that many investors will also come to see it as a superior safe haven asset for these and other reasons, and this should allow Bitcoin to grab even more market share from other global assets in this class.

Valuation Model

In Part 1, I teased a valuation model based on this theory. Due to the fuzzy picture surrounding Bitcoin’s future, it is of course rudimentary and rough around the edges, but at least it’s something we can use as an anchor in the fool’s errand that is valuing cryptocurrencies, something that gives us at least somewhat of a solid footing – tenuous though it may be – in this sea of volatility and uncertainty. Follow along:

It is estimated that global gold inventories sits at around 187,000 metric tonnes. At today’s prices that means gold’s total market cap is just shy of $8 trillion. Of all the gold available, around 32% is used as investments/held by central banks. This is the gold that the global financial industry uses as a store of value/inflation hedge/safe haven. In other words, the global finance industry gives gold a roughly $2.56 trillion valuation to act as nothing but a store of value. Using this rough data, I’ve written a quick and dirty equation to give us a rough valuation tool. It is:

Bitcoin price/coin = (P x 2.56) ÷ 0.000021*

*where P represents how much market share Bitcoin will take from gold, in percentage and expressed as a decimal. The 2.56 is in trillions, and the 0.000021 represents the 21 million coin supply.

Even in the most optimistic scenarios, Bitcoin is not going to completely usurp gold’s market share, and this is where your own judgment comes in. You need to decide how much market share you think Bitcoin is most likely to steal from gold and apply that to the equation. So, for example, if you believe Bitcoin will take 65% of gold’s market share over the next few decades, simply plug in 0.65 for P and you’ll get your answer.

(0.65 x 2.56) ÷ 0.000021 = $79,238/coin

Note that this is simply a valuation tool for only the scenario mentioned above, that Bitcoin eventually supplants gold as the primary (or at least a major) store of value asset class for the global financial system. This does not take into account any value for any other role or use Bitcoin may establish as it moves along towards maturity, which is almost a given should the above theory come to pass. As inevitably happens with transformative technologies, there will almost certainly be use cases for Bitcoin that nobody is even thinking about right now, so the above tool leaves significant upside to the valuation and should be looked at as conservative (assuming, of course, the scenario we envisioned above comes to pass). Obviously, don’t make any major investment decisions based solely on this. This is just a rudimentary tool that may be helpful in addition to your own analysis. It is not on it’s own meant to be predictive, more of a rough guide.

Conclusion

All in all, when we consider the properties of gold and analyze why it’s currently used as the go to store of value for the global financial system, and then consider that in almost every important factor Bitcoin is superior, it’s reasonable to assume that, as tends to happen, the superior product will gradually steal market share from the inferior one. This theory needs to be taken with a Dead Sea’s worth of salt, however. It would be wrong to say it’s likely, if only because cryptocurrencies are so new, and so disruptive, and so unlike anything in the financial system today that anybody who says with full confidence that they know what Bitcoin will become is either a fool or a liar. There are so many variables and such a convoluted dynamic at play that any theory espoused today (including mine) cannot be said to be “likely”. As Bitcoin slowly matures over the next few years, it’s future will become more and more clear. Today, however, we’re all just groping around in the dark trying to apply existing facts and theories to an unprecedented asset class. That said, I believe that of all the theories out there today, the one outlined above is probably the most likely outcome. I should also point out that Bitcoin is not, at present, considered a store of value. It has far too much volatility, a condition that will likely persist for a few years as the market matures. The market is still in the adoption/legitimization phase, which is characterized by intense volatility and large % gains/losses. Slowly, as the market matures over the next 10 years, the volatility will settle down, the price will become more stable, and investors will begin to think of Bitcoin as a much better candidate for a store of value.

Satoshi Nakamoto, the legendary inventor of Bitcoin, is regarded by many almost as a messianic figure in the online community. The name is a pseudonym, and to this day, no one knows who he/she is, or even if they’re still alive. His infamous White Paper published in 2009 served as an introductory document to introduce and explain Bitcoin to the world.

There are other factors that would discourage spending cryptos vs fiat beyond the deflation vs inflation dynamic. The fees incurred to GET the Bitcoin in the first place, which can range from 1-5% spending on the fees your exchange charges. Then there’s the fees from the actual transfer to the merchant, which aren’t large, but are non zero numbers. You know what never has fees when making purchases? Fiat. So the “Bitcoin as currency” idea assumes that millions of consumers will not only choose to spend their deflationary Bitcoin over their inflationary fiat currency, but they’ll also pay a fee between 1-5% on each transaction for the privilege of doing so. Not going to happen.

The word “law” in Gresham’s Law is simply colloquial. Economic laws are not laws in the same way that a law is in, say, physics. The law of gravity is never broken, not once. Of course Gresham’s “law” has and will be broken all the time. There will always be somebody buying goods or services with Bitcoin for one reason or another. Lots of illegal purchases, such as drugs or guns, are done in Bitcoin for obvious reasons. Many people have ideological reasons. “Spending Bitcoin is how Satoshi meant for it to be used”, they think, “and so I’ll spend it, even if it’s not a strictly rational economic decision.” Kind of a “be the change you wish to see” type thing. But for the 99% of consumers who could not care less about the ideology of their money and will simply make the economically rational choice about their finances, they won’t use it as a currency. Certainly not in nearly enough numbers to achieve the critical mass of buying and selling in Bitcoin that Satoshi had envisioned.

Disclosure: I am/we are long BTC.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Editor’s Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

Bitcoin

[venividiviciversace]

“feel you”

thinking about race today can be very overwhelming. but i ask you kindly - do not make something an issue just because it's trendy to take a side. don't come to the cause of colored people just because the stars look pretty outside tonight and now your fleeting thoughts are concerned with how strange it is to feel like things are moving backwards. donate to the aclu if you want to make a change. if you really wanted to make a change that would have already crossed your mind, because your platform almost certainly isn't enough to start a national dialogue, just a circular conversation with someone that doesn't think you have enough credibility to change their mind. i think it's foolish that pence left the game to make a statement, not from a strategic point of view - even though twitter already pointed out how *obvious* of a move it was to increase racial division and reacquaint everyone with a man who maybe wants a little more of that sweet joe biden groupie love - but from the point of view that i don't empathize with the way he feels because i don't feel what he feels. but WOW, do people like to say that they feel you but make no effort at all to broaden their limited perspective. 

girls and boys alike, democrats and republicans alike, conservatives and liberals alike. 

are you a young college student with a background that ranges anywhere from extremely liberal to slightly conservative, placed in an environment where you lose your credibility if you base your decisions on your feelings? 

it's quite obvious, in the midst of a social dialogue, to pick the objectively noble side. but let me tell you something: you didn't know that the national anthem was adopted as a recruitment tool for the military in 2003 before you read it in a 'the Guardian' article last week. you weren't there when a near-death drew bledsoe was replaced on the football field by the greatest quarterback in NFL history after a blood vessel sheared in his chest thinking, "it's important to acknowledge the historicity of the national anthem as well as consider its current context to understand what kind of meaning it once held, what kind of meaning it holds, and how future generations will think about it." if you're vomiting out words and ideas regarding issues serious enough change the course of human history that aren't based on the way you feel about something through your experiences, then consider that you may not be as noble as you're fooling your validation-seeking self to be. based on generation time and changes in the environment, our species doesn't evolve that quickly, and looking at how effortlessly and remorselessly white folk used all kinds of colored folk as a stepladder for their own achievement for hundreds of years, i'm pretty sure there wouldn't be more than 10% of white folk today living in the 1700's willing to walk behind a martin luther king jr archetype in a time where your favorite cook made fish fry to die for and you got to own her once your daddy passed. 

a decade passed between the gulf war and the afghanistani war, or the war on terror. we were kids. i was 4. maybe they needed soldiers and the insane people that actually volunteered and fought for a chance that they could make a difference in the lives of innocent middle easterns and americans alike needed help. how sick should do really consider it, in a world where our press secretary blatantly lies about something as benign as the size of an inauguration crowd because his boss is a bit insecure, that uncle sam whispered to the NFL that they should emphasize the national anthem as a way, not to tell the people, but to make them feel in their hearts, that we need help. we are fighting forces unknown to us for results we can't predict except for the "thank you for your service" clockwork we hear at the airport and the lifetime of reaching for your gun and hyperventilating while we walk past the freezer in the supermarket because the buzzing sound in the waffle section reminds us of the sound we heard just before a live grenade exploded outside our bunker, killing a couple of people we didn't know but either of whom we could have easily been. these old politician folk - many of whoms daddy’s and daddy’s daddy’s fought in the military - were on standby, surely out of harms way, but nonetheless facilitating a war against a group they thought was america’s most dangerous enemy. and yes, most of these old politician folk are white, because it's 2017 and change takes time. they don't have friends being killed by white cops or lifelong neighbors being threatened with deportation. it's so clear and obvious to me that protesting the flag is an excellent model for getting a point across that police brutality against black people and colored people is heinous, and the general treatment of all colored folk by police officers is unjustified compared to the way whites are treated by police in 2017. 

at the same time, i wasn't fighting in a war in which i wasn't quite sure what i was fighting for or who my enemy was. 

at the time, however, perhaps i know that i was fighting for those that called themselves american, whatever their skin color may be, because it's the early 2000's and the general acceptance of colored folk is becoming a social norm. i didn't give my life just to make it feel like the fight i caused was worthless. the decisions conservatives make about abortions, the way they embrace religion, whatever it may be. it's just based on a feeling, a feeling that i can't understand. the unmistakable feeling of being scared in 2003 and giving your thanks by pledging allegiance to your flag. the same grateful and proud feeling when your friends come home safe; the same awful but proud feeling when they don't. you must be proud because you cannot feel like they died in vain, whether they were your friends, your subordinates, your doctor, your wife, your children, whomever. they certainly fought for your right to stand or sit - that's the way i feel as a colored person who feels worthless when his voice is dismissed and forgotten. the way another person, with a different perspective and inseparable feeling, feels when the kneeler hit them where it hurts: the flag. their ultimate symbol. what many they knew died protecting, because they didn't die holding an infant above a flood in a hurricane, but instead they died hoping they made the world more a better place for a bunch of numbers in their telephone book. the problem with establishing feelings based on those who died for a symbol is that symbols are changing, similar to how there’s nothing about the word “horse” that signifies a horse, but it still pops into our head. the difference is symbols outside of language are purposefully malleable to help us understand something we had trouble understanding before we made that comparison. our flag was symbolic of freedom. now it's symbolic of division. the kneeler shits on something intangible that holds meaning forever to the conservative. i may as well be telling that conservative their father is a child molester. that’s just kneeling in front of the flag. but allowing them to make sense of it is the trick. like telling that same conservative that their younger sister was a victim of his father during her adolescence. for a liberal, the murders of innocent blacks and every racial injustice that we accept is the status quo is enough to change our somewhat neutral, if not already negative (based on common liberal feelings regarding unrightful seizure of land from natives, the genocides our forefathers committed, etc.) feelings about the flag to very negative. it’s not as easy when you’re being told that the man you played catch with, let you stay out past curfew, took you to vegas for your 21st, died of emphysema with you next to his hospital bed and left you half of his belongings in his will... it’s not easy to change the way you feel about him. it will happen as the individual naturally adapts and accepts the truth of the world, as it’s too difficult living without accepting truth, but it’s certainly not something that will be dealt with through the passage of logic.

understanding how someone feels when what they think is completely obvious to them when it makes absolutely no sense to you - like why these fucking old conservatives are so closed-minded about the flag - isn't just hard, it's impossible. feelings can't be replicated because feelings are a result of all of your unique thoughts you've had up to a particular moment, every single way you've felt about those thoughts, and all the meta-analyses you did interpreting how you felt about your thoughts. that's what guides your behavior. that's what shapes your values. if you value acknowledging the specific divisiveness of NFL pregames and strategically leave in order to win political points and aggravate the state of our upcoming race war, then i can't say we value the same thing. your feelings are irrational, but so are mine. the flag meant nothing to some in 2003 and it meant everything to others in 2003. now, in 2017, most of the people who couldn't tell you how many stripes are on the flag kneel before it, pleading the rest to do the same, giving the flag a new meaning. but those who already feel the way they feel about what it means... it's not just disrespectful that i kneel, it's appalling that i didn't care then and i do care now. liberals didn't generally support the war on terror. conservatives did. their symbolism was solidified in concrete. they believe the concrete is dry as an act of desperation to give meaning to those who were at biggest risk of dying meaningless. but the concrete never dries. we continue pushing forward by holding on tight to what we know, but also by loosening our grip when we're confronted with something we don't understand, rather than clenching our fist when something challenges the way we feel. because my feelings aren't all rational. and neither are yours. they aren't supposed to be. they’re just genuine. they’re just a result of every process we’ve put ourselves through. and they’re not entirely logical. meaning someone out there will have a more logical perspective on something than you. it’s just up to you to loosen your grip and separate your feelings from your rationale in order to understand the thoughts of another. if you can achieve that, you can see how you feel about adopting their rationale. once you can interpret those feelings, you’ll finally feel what they feel. you’ll have done the impossible.