#but iirc Kaga wanted to hammer that people follow Seliph first and foremost because he is Siggy's son and hope he will walk in his steps

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I'm really unsure how much stock i should put on Kaga's interview statement that you're meant to interpret Sigurd as an impulsive idiot who was too stupid to realize that he was being put into a very obvious trap throughout his campaign

Sigurd's death scene always read to me as the audience being meant to be both impressed by Arvis' intelligence and horrified at what's happening to the cast, not as "Sigurd is such a dumbfuck for falling for such a painfully obvious ploy, Arvis got really lucky that his biggest opponent is this much of a dimwit lol"

There's a huge difference between pre!Silesse!Siggy and post!Silesse!Siggy.

Chalk it up to Deedee being missing, living a few months in what is supposed to be a cold viper's nest (tfw Rahna's bros in law don't like her sitting on the throne) or his family being framed for Kurth's death despite years of loyalty by fellow Granvalle people (+ Claud's prophecy that things are going to suck), Siggy mellows a bit.

Then Ethlyn, Quan and Altena eat sand, and Siggy makes the decision to order the kids/youngsters to gtfo - he might still be an idealist at heart and trust that, at least, some people in Granvalle aren't part of the conspiracy to frame him and his dad for the murder of the King - maybe if he can talk to Azmur everything will be "okay" again - and yet, he isn't willing to risk the lives of the kids or the ones who want to get out of this mess, because there is a risk he's going to die, and he's now aware of it.

Post!Silesse!Siggy, especially after his dad and Ethlyn's deaths, reads as desperate - desperate to cleanse his family's name, but also to find allies and make sure the Granvalle he served - under Azmur - still exists.

Of course we know what happens, but fwiw, Siggy is at first doubtful when Velthomer suddenly sides with them to toast Reptor, but thanks to Aida's assurance - and no prior ill feelings against Arvis, who is, as far as Siggy knows, someone who was in Belhalla, gave him a nifty sword and serves the royal family more closely than anyone else - he accepts to follow her plan...

Only to be toasted in turn.

IMO, it's less than Siggy is an impulsive idiot, but he is a naive and idealist man who has full trust in the people he serves (the Heim royals) : sure he was played, but just like Reptor and Langobalt (or Lombard as he is now know) and, ultimately, Arvis himself.

Arvis and Manfroy fooled Jugdral, so it reads a bit as unfair to single out Siggy as being a moron because he was played.

Bar the memes, I wouldn't say it's Arvis being intelligent - but him finally showing his real cards (even if we got hints when he works with Manfroy, and Reptor wondering what the fuck he is doing), that is being unrepentant and torching (gameplay wise, at least in this cutscene) his own brother for the sake of reaching his dreams, and securing Deedee at the same time.

Both Siggy and Reptor trusted Arvis, and Arvis pissed on that to kill them with their pants down : much like ASOIAF's Tywin gambits, this isn't being more intelligent than the others, it's being more ruthless by betraying everyone and everything to reach his own ends.

However, unlike his bootleg copy, Arvis won't enjoy pots of tea and pastries during his retirement : by the time Gen 2 pops up, Oldvis lost everything he onced had, is manhandled by his own son, ignored by his own people, has his "grand ideals" twisted and torn beyond recognition, and his batman gambit to save the hunted children kind of falls flat, because he cannot save his own son(s) nor his beloved daughter.

And to add more salt to the wound, ghost!Deedee hangs out with ghost!Siggy and never asks about him - you can even read between lines that Deedee "accepted" her death at Julius' hands, instead of rewarping or whacking him with the Book of Naga because that would mean she'd reunite with Siggy, Arvis (and Julia, by the same occasion :'( ) be damned.