#but I didn't predict she would catch a nail in a hole instead

[kedreeva]

Bug, overseeing her domain.

[oumakokichi]

Do you think Tsumugi was anywhere near as smart as Ouma or did she just have the advantage of blindsiding him? Even in his final moments, he didn't seem to suspect her any more than any of the others. Atleast that we get to see.

Someone asked me a somewhat similar question awhile back andput it in really good terms. I don’t remember the exact phrasing, but it wassomething about how if Ouma is a chessmaster (and I do think he is, given allthe evidence), then Tsumugi is an opportunist. I still think they really nailedit: opportunist is a perfect word forher.

If I had to compare how smart they both are in terms of justintellect? Ouma would probably be smarter. Considering he definitely seems tohave some variation of SHSL Analysis, his predictive and analytical abilitynearly rival Junko’s and Kamukura’s. Even taking into account the fact that hereally is genuinely childish and even klutzy sometimes, he still seems… well,like a genius.

Looking objectively at his 300-or-so page script which hadmulti-branching routes, predicted nearly all of his classmates’ behavior to aT, and was written in the span of 2 hours, he wasn’t “just smart.” That sort ofthing wouldn’t be possible for anyone unless they had some kind of talent orability that correlated to it directly. There are also the diagrams in hisroom, which he commissioned Miu to make. While Miu’s ability to actually inventthem is more than impressive, Ouma seems to be the one who actually thoughtthem up and designed them, which is absolutely astounding.

Assuming that he was a genius of some kind also explains whysometimes he seems like he has to rewind himself and put himself a few stepsback, like in Chapter 4 when he literally can’t understand why they’d think he’sthe culprit. The answer is clear to him, since he already knows the full factsabout the case, and everyone else’s remarks must’ve felt like the trial wasjust dragging on so slowly. When you’re haughty and self-confident like Ouma,feeling like the smartest person in the room means everyone else seems to begoing so slow. Sometimes he reallydoes seem taken aback before he manages to backtrack a bit and look at the casefrom their perspective, even though they’re all still stuck on the wronganswer.

By contrast, Tsumugi doesn’t seem to have these nearlysuperhuman abilities. She’s smart—verysmart, actually. But her smarts still feel within the realm of humanpossibilities, rather than her being on an entirely different level from anyoneelse. If I had to think of a character who she’s probably equal with in termsof intellect, Komaeda might be a good choice (it’s kind of hilarious that oneof her FTEs has her specifically hating on people who use fictional charactersas “stepping stones” to get famous). Both of them are incredibly smart,arguably smarter than a lot of the rest of their classmates. But they’re stillultimately human, and circumstances can and do catch them off guard prettyregularly.

Komaeda simply allows his luck to make up for the holes inhis plans, while Tsumugi doesn’t try to cover the holes in the first place. Asan opportunist, she’s capable of rewriting entirely new scenarios, or claimingcredit for things that she never actually planned in the first place. Thisallows both of them to take chances and risks in a way that characters likeOuma, Junko, and Kamukura rarely do. The former are genuine risk-takers whoknow they’re smart enough to handle themselves in the long run. The latter(particularly Ouma and Junko) might act as if they take risks, but very rarelydo. Instead they leave as little to chance as possible, relying instead ontheir own huge brains and analytical abilities.

As you said, Tsumugi’s best and strongest advantage oversomeone like Ouma was her ability to blindside him at all. And make no mistake,this ability to fly under the radar is something she’s very well aware of, justas Komaeda is aware of his own luck and the fact that it’ll typically makethings swing in his favor. She mentions it outright in her FTEs, citing exampleslike hopping a subway or going to the movies without paying for it because noone would notice her anyway. It’s no coincidence that she talks about how plain(地味)she is almost once per line of dialogue: if anything, she wants to drill intopeople’s heads exactly how unnoticeable and boring she is so that they won’treally pay her much mind.

This plainness of hers works really, really well againstsomeone like Ouma. Ouma is an intentional subversion of Junko in many ways, butit’s true that they still share certain parallels—including their need for thespotlight. Ouma wants things to be “fun” and “interesting” and “exiting” at alltimes. He hates boredom (yet another thing he has in common with characters whohave SHSL Analysis). Therefore, he tries to avoid it at all costs. Someone likeTsumugi who seems to be the embodiment ofboredom just put him off entirely. I’m not even entirely sure if he consciouslydismissed the idea that she was the ringleader, or if it was more of asubconscious aversion.

Either way, I think he was unable to close in on herspecifically because he, to some degree, was using chessboard thinking.Chessboard thinking is a type of game theory in which you try to predict youropponent’s next move(s) by putting yourself in their shoes. It has itsadvantages, but obviously it only works best if you can actually predict youropponent. Otherwise you make mistaken assumptions. And you’re always going tobe somewhat biased, as you’re thinking with your own logic, rather than theirs.

By thinking “what would I do if I were the ringleader?” Oumamade the mistake of thinking that the ringleader would act like himself. He fitthe role of “evil villain” so perfectly because he was playing a part, and heexpected the real ringleader to mostly act the same—but that assumption waswrong from the beginning. He and Tsumugi were on completely differentwavelengths the whole time, and he never, I think, predicted that theringleader could be someone so… absolutely boring.

Something I’ve always felt is ironic is that I think Oumaprobably could’ve predicted a mastermind like Junko far better than he could aringleader like Tsumugi. Kirigiri did it before him, after all, and he andKirigiri are more than paralleled on several occasions. His and Junko’s similarmindsets would make them a formidable match against each other (though it’sanyone’s guess who would actually win a debate between them, since Junko hasabsolutely no conscience while Ouma is deeply empathetic). But since he wassearching for Tsumugi all the time, he wasn’t ever able to realize what wasright in front of his face.

This really did allow her to blindside him completely, as heremarks bitterly in his talk with Momota in Chapter 5 once he’s explaining hisplan. He realizes quickly that the ringleader must’ve manipulated Maki as apawn into kickstarting the killing game into action again, but has no idea how they actually did so. Because heshut himself up in the machinery bay with no way to maneuver around the schoolor investigate for himself, he allowed holes in his defenses for the firsttime, and Tsumugi took advantage of it spectacularly.

She might not be a genius herself, but she’s plenty cunningand quick on her feet. Her ability to revise her own scenarios, and to makethese huge, sweeping claims for things with no way to prove that she didn’tactually do them, means that she can seem a lot more capable than she actuallyis. Even when she’s clearly human and fallible, and when things definitely don’tgo according to her plan (such as when Saihara stops wearing his hat, when sherealizes Momota was sick in Chapter 5, etc.) she can bounce back quick enoughthat it’s near impossible to prove she ever messed up at all.

If Ouma is absolutely brilliant, then I’d say Tsumugi is…devious. She’s more than capable of compensating for her lack of genius throughher sheer dedication to her goals, as well as the fact that she doesn’t alwaysnecessarily play fair. While Ouma was mostly right in assuming that she had tofollow the rules of the killing game because it was being broadcast, he failedto account for the fact that she already had broken the rules long before herstatus as the ringleader was exposed. As long as she can get away with it, she’sabsolutely the type of person to cheat in a game—and her plainness makes itvery hard to notice she’s cheating at all, usually.

This is just my take on it, anyway. The differences in theirway of thinking are honestly fascinating, so I really love getting to talk aboutthe both of them. Ouma is complex in his moral ambiguity and in how much healludes to the themes of the game, but Tsumugi is also complex in herhollow-ness, and how terrifyingly effective she is as an antagonist. Thank youfor giving me a chance to talk about them both!