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dreaminginthedeepsouth · 4 years ago

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LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

October 5, 2020

Heather Cox Richardson

It appears that the closing argument from the Trump campaign for his reelection was supposed to be that the Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, was overreacting to coronavirus, making fun, for example, of his insistence on wearing a mask and staying distant from others.

Trump was supposed to project strength in the face of the pandemic, suggesting that it has been way overblown by Democrats who oppose his administration and who are thus responsible for the faltering economy.

Then, of course, coronavirus began to spread like wildfire through Trump’s own inner circle after last Sunday’s Rose Garden celebration of Trump’s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court seat formerly held by the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. As Trump and increasing numbers of people in his inner circle began to test positive for the infection, the campaign first floundered, and now appears to be trying to brazen out the idea that the disease is not a big deal, and that Trump has conquered it.

This is insane. Covid-19 has currently infected more than 7 million Americans, and killed more than 210,000 of us, close to the number of Union soldiers—224,097-- who died in our bloody four-year Civil War.

Apparently, it is frustrating Trump that he cannot campaign. Last night, he traveled in a motorcade around Walter Reed Hospital, waving to supporters. The trip horrified medical personnel, who noted that the presidential vehicle is sealed against chemical attack, meaning that the secret service professionals traveling with the president were exposed to a deadly disease for no apparent reason. One of the agents assigned to the First Family told CNN “That never should have happened… The frustration with how we’re treated when it comes to decisions on this illness goes back before this though. We’re not disposable.”

Dr. James P. Phillips, from the Walter Reed Hospital, took to Twitter: “Every single person in the vehicle during that completely unnecessary Presidential “drive-by” just now has to be quarantined for 14 days. They might get sick. They may die. For political theater. Commanded by Trump to put their lives at risk for theater. This is insanity.”

Even staffers were complaining about the disorganization in the West Wing after Trump’s drive. But things did not get more anchored this morning.

Early on, the president began to tweet at a great pace, in all caps, campaign slogans followed by the word “VOTE!” His promises were random and unanchored in reality, with words like “BIGGEST TAX CUT EVER, AND ANOTHER ONE COMING. VOTE!” According to Gabriel Sherman at Vanity Fair, the Trump family is divided over Trump’s performance. According to two Republicans close to the family, Don Jr. was worried by the drive around the hospital. “Don Jr. thinks Trump is acting crazy,” said one of the sources. But Ivanka, Eric, and Jared Kushner “keep telling Trump how great he’s doing.” All of them, though, worried about the morning’s tweet storm.

The infection continues to spread through the White House. This morning, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany announced that she, too, has tested positive for coronavirus, a day after she briefed reporters without a mask. Two sources told CNN that two of McEnany’s deputies, Chad Gilmartin and Karoline Leavitt, have also tested positive, along with two members of the White House staff. McEnany said at first the White House was planning to put out the number of staffers infected, but then said it could not, out of “privacy concerns.” But of course there’s no privacy at stake in the raw numbers.

Today we learned that another person who attended the Rose Garden event, Pastor Greg Laurie of the Harvest Christian Fellowship megachurches in California and Hawaii, has tested positive for coronavirus. In addition, thirteen workers who helped to cater a private Trump fundraiser last Thursday in Minnesota are all quarantining.

Although doctors expressed surprise and concern at the idea Trump might leave Walter Reed Hospital today, the president tweeted: “I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M. Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!”

Doctors noted that he is in a dangerous period for the progression of Covid-19, and that anyone who had required the sorts of treatments Trump has had is too sick to leave the hospital. “I will bet dollars to doughnuts it’s the president and his political aides who are talking about discharge, not his doctors,” William Schaffner, a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University’s medical school, told the Washington Post.

A briefing by Trump’s doctors obscured more than it revealed. The White House physician, Sean Conley, has refused to tell reporters when Trump last tested negative for coronavirus, a piece of information that would tell us when he knew he was infected. He also refused to explain why the president is being treated with a steroid usually reserved for seriously ill patients, or to discuss the state of Trump’s lungs. He did say that the president is “not out of the woods yet.”

Nonetheless, Trump left Walter Reed Hospital tonight, after lights had been installed to enable him to make a triumphant exit. Still infectious, he went back to the White House and climbed a flight of stairs to a balcony, where he dramatically removed his face mask and saluted well-wishers from a balcony. Although the moment was clearly designed to make Trump look strong, it was obvious he was struggling to breathe.

Vox’s Aaron Rupar noted that “Trump has no choice but to continue to downplay coronavirus (despite 210,000 dead and record new case numbers) because if he changed course, it would be an admission that he was wrong about the defining issue of his presidency -- at the cost of tens of thousands of lives.”

This evening, Trump released a video telling people not to let the coronavirus “dominate you. Don’t be afraid of it. You’re going to beat it…. Don’t let it take over your lives.” CNN chief White House correspondent Jim Acosta dubbed him “Coronavirus in Chief.”

Meanwhile, on the campaign trail, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden held a town hall tonight in Miami, Florida, where he gave detailed answers to questions about police reform (more money, ban chokeholds and no knock warrants); socialism (“I’ve taken on the Castros of the world. I didn’t cozy up to them”); a mask mandate (the president can only mandate masks on federal property, but he would call on governors and mayors to do the same); and reopening schools (PPE, small classes, ventilation). Watchers noted that it was a treat both to see a normal conversation and to hear detailed, informed answers.

To stay in touch with voters, Biden today began “Notes from Joe,” a daily newsletter.

Bloomberg is reporting that the contrast between the recent craziness of the White House and Biden’s calm detail has led the stock market to stabilize. Strategists are coming to think there will not be a contested election after all. Biden’s lead over Trump increased again after Trump’s debate performance, which apparently was designed to try to bully Biden by hitting triggers until he began to stutter, thus enabling the Trump campaign to portray him as mentally incapacitated. That strategy failed as Biden parried the triggers, and Americans were repelled by Trump’s behavior. Peter Rosenstreich, head of market strategy at Swissquote Bank SA, told Bloomberg, “Polls are shifting from a close election and prolonged uncertainty to more a dominant Biden and clean succession…. That is reducing uncertainty and increasing risk appetite.”

—-

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

Heather Cox Richardson

#quotes #election 2020 #Letters From An American #Heather Cox Richardson #COVID-19 #superspreader

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orbemnews · 4 years ago

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Florida Gov. DeSantis hints at future plans: 'I have only begun to fight' With more than 40 months before November 2024 and in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, the race for the Republican nomination for president is already underway. And while the 42-year-old governor said nothing concrete about his future plans beyond winning reelection next fall, DeSantis hinted at his ambitions with his final line of the night: “I can tell you this: in the state of Florida, with me as governor, I have only begun to fight.” Prior to his speech, as the 750 people began eating their salads at the Republican Committee of Allegheny County’s annual Lincoln Day Dinner, the mere mention of DeSantis’s name by the party chairman prompted cheers. And when a local pastor, in the midst of a lengthy prayer before the meal, said DeSantis would make a great president of the United States, the entire room let up a roar of approval. DeSantis fired up the crowd during his half-hour address with a slew of applause lines on a number of topics currently animating Republicans and conservatives — from fighting against “Big Tech oligarchs” and the “corporate media” to opposing defunding the police and banning teaching critical race theory in schools. He also used the platform to promote his tenure as governor. Citing vague concerns about elections in other states, DeSantis touted a new controversial law he signed in Florida implementing the “strongest election integrity measures anywhere in the country.” And he celebrated Florida as the leading state for opening up amid the Covid-19 pandemic. “All I can say to any state that has not followed suit: Open your state, open your schools, end these mask mandates, let people live and thrive,” DeSantis said. “When it came right down to it, we chose freedom over Fauci-ism.” DeSantis criticized the Biden administration for what he referred to as its “weakness” in opposing threats from China. And in one of his few references of the night to the Republican former president, he credited Donald Trump for seeing the Chinese threat “better than anyone.” For the most part, he kept his focus on the upcoming midterm elections, encouraging Pennsylvania to elect a Republican governor. And while DeSantis made only vague references to 2024, the event was an early indication of what the governor’s presidential campaign speech might sound like — if Trump himself stays out of the race. A rising star Since Trump left office, DeSantis is perhaps the most well-known elected official with Republicans. And as his appearance in Pittsburgh shows, he is in high-demand for party committees. Among the party’s conservative base, DeSantis has emerged as an heir apparent to the former President. While Trump easily won this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference’s unscientific straw poll for the 2024 presidential nomination, a second poll question excluded Trump — and DeSantis lapped the field of White House potentials with 43% support. His speech before the crowd of CPAC activists in February rested heavily on a Trumpian theme: that DeSantis fights. “Now, anyone can spout conservative rhetoric. We can sit around and have academic debates about conservative policy,” DeSantis said then. “But the question is, when the Klieg lights get hot, when the left comes after you: Will you stay strong or will you fold?” A mainstay on Fox News primetime programming, the first-term Florida governor has pushed back forcefully against critics in the media and public-health world of his relaxed approach to the pandemic. After the initial closures in Florida and across the country in spring 2020, DeSantis was among the first governors to begin the limited reopening of certain businesses, some as early as May that year — a plan he talked over with Trump. DeSantis refused to issue a statewide mask mandate and even prevented localities from imposing their own mandates. He also did not reimpose restrictions last fall, when other governors slowed down reopening plans as case rates began to rise across the country. It was a record he touted several times in Pittsburgh. “Your job as a leader is to make decisions,” DeSantis said. “You can’t subcontract out leadership decisions to health bureaucrats.” But the result for Florida was mixed. Judging strictly by the number of cases and deaths, Florida’s Covid response was neither the best in the country nor the disaster feared by public-health experts. Since reaching its peak 7-day average of new reported cases in early January of this year, Florida has seen a steep fall-off in new case numbers, with a short-lived spike in April that soon abated. The story DeSantis has told, however, is that he stood athwart “oppressive lockdowns” and other restrictive measures that he claims would have done more harm than good. He crowed about Florida’s example in an email fundraising appeal in March. “Everyone told me I was wrong,” he said earlier this year. “I faced continued pressure from radical Democrats and the liberal media, but I refused to back down. It’s clear: Florida got it right.” Fighting against the media In Pittsburgh, DeSantis railed against what he deemed a “very corrupt and partisan corporate media” and hailed his own victory last month over one news program that he felt had unfairly targeted him. In April, CBS News’s “60 Minutes” ran a report about Florida’s vaccination program and drew attention to a recent $100,000 donation that Florida-based supermarket chain Publix made to DeSantis’ reelection bid. The story suggested there was a possible link between the donation and the state’s partnership with Publix stores for vaccine distribution. But, beyond spotlighting the public finance records, “60 Minutes” never offered any substantive evidence to support the significant assertion and link the donation with the partnership. Both Publix and Florida Democratic officials involved with the vaccination program later came out to dispute the suggestion of the “60 Minutes” report, while conservative media rallied to DeSantis’ side. It’s become a talking point for the Florida Republican and a way to position himself as a fighter against out-of-touch elites in the media and elsewhere. “I had people writing in from all across the country from my office, saying what a farce it was,” DeSantis said in Pittsburgh. “And they were so happy to have somebody who is willing to stand up.” Source link Orbem News #begun #DeSantis #Fight #Florida #Floridagovernor #Future #Gov #Hints #hintsatfutureplans:"Ihaveonlybeguntofight"-CNNPolitics #plans #Politics #rondesantis

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vinayv224 · 5 years ago

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The 6 Democrats running for president and everything else you should know about 2020

The biggest questions about the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, answered.

The 2020 presidential primary campaign field is winnowing down quickly now that the votes are being cast.

Any Democrat with dreams of occupying the Oval Office saw Donald Trump is a vulnerable president who hasn’t broadened his appeal beyond his base. A lot of them decided to run for their party’s nomination to be its standard-bearer in the 2020 election.

Two candidates look stronger than the rest: former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who rose to join the top of the field but then faded, and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who has risen in national polls, are the other two candidates in the race with the support and the infrastructure to make a splash in the race. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, after a strong third-place finish in New Hampshire, has faded in Nevada and South Carolina.

At this point, most candidates have dropped out: the latest is former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who won the Iowa caucuses and finished a close second in New Hampshire. Sen. Kamala Harris, Sen. Cory Booker, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, entrepreneur Andrew Yang and others departed after the first two states.

The Democratic field included a record number of women and nonwhite candidates, a mix of high-wattage stars and lesser-known contenders who believe they can navigate a fractured field to victory. The debates started in June, with most candidates getting a chance to appear on stage, but the number of participants started to shrink in the third debate in September. The next Democratic debate will be held on March 15.

Whoever emerges from the Democratic primary will face Trump, who along with the Republican National Committee has already raised more than $300 million for his reelection campaign. Recent history tells us Americans usually give their presidents another four years, which should lend Trump an advantage. But the president has been historically unpopular during his first term, and Biden and Sanders look competitive in a hypothetical general election match-up.

The past few months have demonstrated that really anything can happen. It’s silly to pretend anybody knows how this contest is going to end, and the 2016 election should have humbled all political prognosticators. Still, the 2020 campaign is well underway. Here is what you need to know to get oriented.

Who is running for president in the 2020 election?

On the Republican side, there is of course President Donald Trump.

A few prominent Republican officials — namely, former Ohio Gov. John Kasich and popular Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan — had hinted they might challenge the president, though that’s very unlikely now. Any primary challenger would be a huge underdog against the sitting president. Republican leaders have said they want to protect Trump by having state parties change the rules for their primaries to guard against an insurgency.

The GOPer trying to supplant him is former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld, a libertarian-leaning Republican. Two others dropped out of the race: Onetime radio host and former Rep. Joe Walsh, who has apologized for saying racist things on Twitter, and former Rep. Mark Sanford, an ideological conservative who was a member of the Freedom Caucus while he was in the House. No other Republican is going to topple Trump, we can safely say.

On the Democratic side, the field is finally starting to shrink with candidates dropping out. The contenders, in rough order of standing, are:

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT): The 2016 runner-up is running again. He has the biggest grassroots base of any potential candidate and has led the push to move the party leftward. A more competitive field has presented Sanders with a very different race this time. The senator recently had a heart attack while on the campaign trail; while he’s recovering, he has openly said he won’t be able to get back to the breakneck speed of events he once had. Still, for many on the Democratic left, Sanders is the only candidate with the credibility to pursue their top-tier issues, like Medicare-for-all.

Former Vice President Joe Biden: Biden thought hard about running in 2016, but he decided against it, being so soon after his son Beau’s death and with the party establishment uniformly behind Hillary Clinton. He’s still very popular with Democratic voters, and the former veep apparently wasn’t sure any of the other potential candidates would beat Trump. Though surely inflated by name recognition, Biden had a sizable early lead in the early Democratic national polls that has since dropped sharply.

Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg: Bloomberg had toyed with a Democratic presidential run, even though he governed the country’s biggest city as an independent, for a while. Late in the game, he finally decided to take a shot, filing for the primary in Alabama ahead of the deadline there. He has a few policy wins that he can tout to Democratic voters, most notably on guns, but a centrist billionaire with some policy ideas that are anathema to the progressive base may struggle to unite the party behind him.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): The Massachusetts senator is proudly progressive, though she tends to position herself as wanting to fix capitalism rather than replace it. She wants to outflank Trump on trade, give workers seats on corporate boards, and tax extreme wealth. Warren got on the ground early in Iowa and other early states and, like Sanders, is not seeking money from high-dollar donors. (You also might have heard about her releasing a DNA test in an attempt to prove she had Native American roots — a poorly executed early attempt to rebut Trump’s “Pocahontas” taunts.)

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): She will look to blend her folksy, Midwestern manner with some crossover appeal, given her history of working across the aisle with Republicans and winning elections handily in a purplish state. Klobuchar is also known for her willingness to crack down on big tech firms on privacy and antitrust issues. She struggled for much of the race with a lack of name recognition, however, and she has been the subject of several reports about her alleged harsh treatment of staff.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): Gabbard fires up a certain strain of antiwar progressive. She’s faced tough questions, though, about her apparent friendliness with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad and her past comments on LGBTQ rights.

Who has dropped out of the 2020 presidential campaign?

Quite a few Democrats have already given up the ghost, with some of the big names withdrawing once they faltered in the primaries.

Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg: Something of a viral political star, though he leads a city of “just” 100,000 people, Buttigieg is a military veteran and a Rhodes scholar, and he would have been the first openly LGBTQ president in American history. Redevelopment and infrastructure projects have been staples of his tenure as mayor, but he also got plenty of questions about how he handled racial issues in South Bend.

Tom Steyer: The billionaire Democratic donor decided to enter the arena. He first rose to political prominence for his focus on combating climate change, and started a crusade to convince congressional Democrats to impeach Trump. Steyer positioned himself as a (well-funded) outsider running against a host of lifelong politicians.

Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ): The former Newark, New Jersey, mayor and part-time firefighter failed to break out of the low single digits in polls, despite early predictions that he could be a major contender in the race. He was a fresh face with big ideas like savings accounts for newborns, but his work promoting charter schools (not a favorite of the teachers unions) and the perception that he’s close with Wall Street both posed challenges to his candidacy from the start, and his message of love and unity never quite caught on with voters.

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA): The former California attorney general started generating White House hype almost as soon as she got to the Senate in 2017. As a younger black woman, she personified the Democratic Party’s changing nature. She had endorsed Medicare-for-all and proposed a major middle-class tax credit, though her days as a prosecutor presented problems with the progressive grassroots. Harris made a big splash in early polls, but she dropped after stumbles over health care and never recovered.

Andrew Yang: A humanitarian-minded entrepreneur who also served in the Obama administration, he ran on a policy platform that includes, among other things, a universal basic income that would pay out $1,000 a month to every American over 18.

Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke: The former Texas Congress member was once 2020’s biggest wild card. O’Rourke built a historically successful fundraising apparatus during his losing 2018 Senate run against Ted Cruz. He’s young, and he gives a good speech. Obama’s old hands seemed to like him. The open question was whether his self-evidenced political talents were matched by policy substance.

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio: De Blasio, the mayor of America’s biggest city and already the unlikely victor of a contentious Democratic primary to get there, touted his progressive achievements in the Big Apple as a model for the nation: enacting universal pre-K, ending stop-and-frisk, and creating an ambitious local health care program.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): Gillibrand had evolved over the years from a centrist Democrat in the House to a progressive. She endorsed Medicare-for-all and universal paid family leave; a pillar of her Senate career has been cracking down on sexual assault in the military. Gillibrand was presenting herself as a young mom in tune with the Me Too era and the Democratic women who powered the party to historic wins in the 2018 midterms.

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO): Bennet is a well-regarded but nationally little-known senator. He tacks toward the center ideologically. The passion that fuels his candidacy is a fervent frustration with the way Washington works now. Bennet believes Americans are not nearly as divided as the parties in Washington and is positioning himself accordingly.

Former San Antonio mayor and HUD Secretary Julián Castro: Castro got VP buzz in prior elections; this time, he ran in his own right after serving in Obama’s Cabinet on an aspirational message as the grandson of immigrants.

Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper: Hickenlooper is a moderate ex-governor who pitched his ability to work across the aisle. On the issues, he touted his record on gun violence, environmental regulations, and expanding Medicaid. He conveyed an everyman persona, having founded a Denver brewery before he ever ran for public office. He decided to run for the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Sen. Cory Gardner in 2020 instead.

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee: Inslee centered his work on environmental issues and the threat of climate change. He has pushed a bill to get his home state off coal energy and all other carbon-producing energy sources by 2045. It hasn’t always been smooth sailing — voters in Washington rejected an Inslee-supported carbon fee in 2015 — but the governor hoped to quickly build a profile by focusing relentlessly on the dire threat to humanity. He has opted instead to seek a third term as governor.

Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA): Another Nancy Pelosi skeptic who helped lead the unsuccessful rebellion to stop her from becoming House speaker again in 2016. The Massachusetts representative, who is an Iraq War veteran, positioned himself as a moderate in contrast to the socialist energy animating the left and seeking to take over his party.

Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH): The Ohio Congress member pitched himself as the Democratic answer for Trump country, arguing he can connect with the blue-collar workers the party has lost in the Midwest. He cited the closure of the Lordstown GM plant in his home state as part of his motivation for running. Ryan has a history of long-shot bids: He challenged Pelosi for the House Democratic leader post in 2016.

Former Sen. Mike Gravel: The 88-year-old former senator, famed for reading the Pentagon Papers into the congressional record, ran 2020’s oddest campaign. Two teenagers convinced Gravel to launch a protest candidacy targeting the center left and the forever wars of mainstream American foreign policy. He endorsed Gabbard and Sanders after he exited the race.

Miramar, Florida, Mayor Wayne Messam: The mayor of a Miami suburb, Messam had perhaps the lowest name recognition of any Democrat in the race. The son of Jamaican immigrants, he’s raised wages for city workers as mayor and confronted the Republican-led state government over gun control.

Former Rep. Joe Sestak: The retired three-star admiral and former Pennsylvania representative in Congress was a late entry to the race, announcing his campaign three days before the first Democratic debates. Sestak pitched himself heavily on his naval experience — his campaign logo prominently features the moniker “Adm. Joe” — and the global leadership experience he says it provides.

Marianne Williamson: A self-proclaimed “bitch for God” who has been a spiritual adviser to Oprah. Her previous political experience was a failed run for Congress as an independent in 2014.

Former Rep. John Delaney: The most notable thing about Delaney was he ran for president for over two years, more or less living in Iowa, the first state on the presidential calendar. But he rarely polled above 1 percent there or anywhere else.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick: Patrick had sworn off a presidential bid months ago, but he reversed course and jumped into the campaign. He never made a mark.

When are the next 2020 Democratic presidential primary election debates?

The Democratic National Committee announced it would hold 12 debates, starting in June 2019 and extending into 2020.

The next Democratic debate is March 15 and will be held in Phoenix, Arizona. To date, candidates must either have won a Democratic National Convention delegate in Iowa or hit a certain percentage in national or early-state polls to qualify, but the qualifying thresholds for the next debate have not yet been set.

When are the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election and caucus nights?

Early momentum is always critical, especially in a big field with so many candidates trying to prove that they’re viable. With that in mind, here are the next two months of the primary schedule:

March 3 (“Super Tuesday”): Alabama, California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Vermont primaries

March 7: Louisiana primary

March 10: Michigan, Mississippi and Missouri primaries; North Dakota caucuses

March 12: Virgin Islands

March 14: Guam, Northern Mariana

March 17: Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio primaries

March 24: Georgia, American Samoa

March 27: North Dakota

March 29: Puerto Rico

April 4: Alaska, Hawaii, Louisiana, Wyoming

April 7: Wisconsin

April 28: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island

How do you win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination?

The short version is you have to win a majority of the delegates.

Every state has different rules for its primary elections or caucuses in terms of allocating delegates. Candidates win delegates proportional to where they finish in the results, though they generally have to hit a minimum threshold of 15 percent to be awarded any delegates.

In terms of numbers, there will be an estimated 3,979 delegates for the 2020 Democratic National Convention (where the nominee will be formally selected) up for grabs during the primary elections. One candidate needs to win at least 1,991 delegates to be nominated.

You might hear talk of a “brokered” or “contested” convention if no candidate gets the necessary delegates to win on the first ballot. That could definitely happen in 2020; the FiveThirtyEight forecast thinks it’s a 2-in-3 chance. If that should happen, all bets are off. There hasn’t been a brokered convention in decades.

Democrats have made one major change from the 2016 primary on “superdelegates” — elected officials, party leaders, and other prominent Democrats who have votes in addition to the regular delegates awarded by state elections. In the past, superdelegates didn’t have to follow any rules and could back whichever candidate they desire and make up their minds at any point in the process. When most of them endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2016, it gave her a built-in delegate advantage over Bernie Sanders, though she still won enough votes independent of the superdelegates to secure the nomination.

In a series of reforms, the DNC has stripped superdelegates of a vote on the first ballot. So unless the convention has to move to second or third votes because no candidate has a sufficient number of delegates — something that hasn’t happened since the 1950s — superdelegates won’t matter in 2020. (Arguably, they never did. Many pointed out it was unlikely for superdelegates to use their power to overturn the outcome of the primary system, but it nevertheless created consternation within the party.)

Okay. So who will be the next president?

Ha! You almost got me.

from Vox - All https://ift.tt/30tpoDi from Blogger https://ift.tt/3auKy7V via IFTTT

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fullspectrum-cbd-oil · 5 years ago

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What’s Next for Democratic Presidential Candidates After New Hampshire

If there’s one thing Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary made clear, it’s that Democrats are no closer to agreeing on the right candidate to beat Republican President Donald Trump in November.

The two leading candidates from Iowa’s caucus, Senator Bernie Sanders and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, stayed at the top of the field. But Senator Amy Klobuchar surged to third, throwing the viability of both Senator Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden into question.

No candidate exceeded 30% of the vote – a muddled outcome that could end up helping billionaire Michael Bloomberg, a moderate candidate who wasn’t even on the ballot.

Here’s how the path ahead looks for each of the top candidates vying to challenge Trump on Nov. 3:

BERNIE SANDERS

After his strong performances in mainly white Iowa and New Hampshire, Sanders’ claim that he is building a “multiracial, multigenerational, people-driven movement” will be put to the test in more diverse Nevada and South Carolina.

A Quinnipiac national poll released on Monday showed the Vermont senator up 2 percentage points among black voters since January, reaching 19% support and closing the gap on Biden, who fell 22 points to 27% after a fourth-place finish in Iowa. Bloomberg surged to 22% among black voters in the poll.

The 78-year-old candidate’s hefty war chest is allowing him to air new TV ads in states that vote in March, places where Bloomberg has dominated the airwaves as part of his strategy focused on later-voting states. Warren’s poor showing on Tuesday should help Sanders consolidate the party’s liberal wing.

Some Democratic officials are concerned that Sanders’ “democratic socialist” label could damage down-ballot candidates in the fall. Buttigieg and Klobuchar’s combined vote total on Tuesday night far surpassed what Sanders drew, suggesting voters may still prefer a centrist message.

In a sign of the resistance he may face, Nevada’s influential Culinary Union Local 226 on Tuesday circulated a flyer to its members warning that Sanders would “end” the labor group’s popular healthcare offerings if elected president.

PETE BUTTIGIEG

The 38-year-old former mayor’s campaign is on an upswing after a narrow win in Iowa and close second-place finish in New Hampshire, but far tougher tests lay ahead in states with more diverse populations.

Buttigieg has struggled to overcome skepticism among African-American voters, after members of the black community in South Bend complained he ignored them amid the city’s economic revitalization. That apparent weakness has raised concerns about whether he can mobilize enough support nationally from black voters to beat the Republican Trump.

The campaign says a strategy of reaching out to rural, independent areas where people voted for both Trump and former President Barack Obama has allowed Buttigieg to build a broad coalition and prove his unity message during a divisive Trump presidency is viable.

In South Carolina, where roughly 30% of the population is black, Buttigieg has remained in the single digits in opinion polls. His campaign is hoping to leverage his status as a military veteran to earn support in the state, which has a large number of veteran and active duty service members.

Campaign officials say his team will rely on deep volunteer corps in a broad swath of states with upcoming primaries, as opposed to hiring expensive staff, and focus spending on ads that will help boost his name recognition.

AMY KLOBUCHAR

Klobuchar was mostly an afterthought in a crowded field only weeks ago, but she scored the biggest surprise in New Hampshire, coming in third and easily beating Warren and Biden.

A commanding debate performance in New Hampshire on Friday night led to increasingly large and enthusiastic crowds at the weekend. The campaign reported raising $4 million between the debate and Tuesday morning, and later in the day announced a new television advertising buy in Nevada.

Klobuchar, 59, has run as an unapologetic centrist, highlighting her success in winning in conservative districts in Minnesota and dismissing ambitious liberal policy proposals like free college tuition as unrealistic “bumper sticker slogans.”

Biden’s poor showings in the first two states could open the door for her to emerge as the moderate standard-bearer. But she needs to show she can move ahead of Buttigieg, and her support among black voters is even more anemic than his is.

ELIZABETH WARREN

After a disappointing fourth-place showing in her neighboring state, the Massachusetts senator needs a breakout moment to recapture the momentum she had last fall.

Hours before the polls closed on Tuesday, Warren campaign manager Roger Lau attempted to forestall a rush to judgment. He argued in a memo to backers that she had built an operation that could methodically collect delegates through March and warning against focusing on “winner-take-all victories.”

Warren failed to win a single delegate in New Hampshire, however, and Klobuchar’s rise appears to be cutting deeply into her base of college-educated voters, particularly women, according to exit polling by Edison Research.

Warren, 70, likely has the most extensive national operation aside from Bloomberg, with more than 1,000 staffers in 30 states. If her fundraising falters, she could face financial strains.

JOE BIDEN

Biden’s decision to leave New Hampshire for South Carolina before the vote count started rolling in says it all.

His campaign never expected to win in Iowa and New Hampshire. But it also did not expect him to finish so poorly, casting a deep shadow on his claim that he is the most “electable” Democrat and best positioned to take on Trump.

His biggest problem has been the rise of Buttigieg and Klobuchar as younger, moderate alternatives.

Biden, 77, hopes the shift to Nevada and South Carolina will give him the reset he needs.

But there are other concerns. His weakness in the first two contests could trigger an erosion of support among his strongest political base: African-American voters. Biden also is unlikely to be able to compete financially with the likes of Sanders, Buttigieg and Bloomberg.

MICHAEL BLOOMBERG

Bloomberg could emerge as one of the night’s biggest winners even though he didn’t campaign in New Hampshire.

The former New York City mayor has been counting on an unsettled race among the moderate candidates, including a weak showing from once-time front-runner Biden, to present himself as the most viable alternative to Sanders.

Bloomberg, 77, joined the race late and is not competing in the first four nomination contests. Instead, his campaign has poured hundreds of millions into the states that vote on March 3, known as Super Tuesday.

National polls have shown Bloomberg steadily growing his share of support in recent weeks, and he has built by far the biggest staff among presidential candidates.

But Bloomberg also faces his own challenges, including an increasing level of scrutiny on his record as mayor. On Tuesday, a recording surfaced of him defending policing tactics that have disproportionately ensnared blacks and Hispanics.

(Reporting by Joseph Ax, Amanda Becker, Sharon Bernstein, Trevor Hunnicutt, Jason Lange, Simon Lewis, Michael Martina and James Oliphant; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Sonya Hepinstall)

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