#at least he was... been dwelling in the 4th league the past 2 seasons but he's got a couple of extraliga games to his name

[extraliga-related]

M. Peksa -> full-time goalie, part-time model

[highbuttonsports]

THIS WEEK IN JETS HOCKEY…. (partial trade deadline preview edition)

Every Thursday at The High Button, we explore the events and stories of the Winnipeg Jets on and off the ice! This week we look at the trio of games, injury updates, trade options and more:

GAMES SINCE LAST THURSDAY IN THIRTY SECONDS:

Thursday March 4th: The Jets outlast the Canadiens with a 4-3 OT victory. The first game of a five game road trip, the Jets battled hard in a fairly even contest. Despite the Habs outshooting the Jets 36-27 overall and 25-20 at 5v5, the Jets had the majority of high danger scoring chances and had 60.2 xGF% through the game. The Jets were able to do what they’ve done against Montreal their last few outings, and what they seem to do best; limit any significant scoring chances and control possession of the puck. Despite that, the Canadiens were able to beat Hellebuyck three times resulting in overtime thanks to a late goal by Corey Perry on a nice setup from Jonathan Drouin. However, the three forward rule would prevail again for the Jets, as  the Ste-Agathe-des-Monts born forward Pierre-Luc Dubois would score the winner in his first game in La bella province as a member of the Winnipeg Jets. JETS PLAYER OF THE GAME: Paul Stastny had two goals, and continues to look stronger each night as he starts to really settle into his second stint with the Jets. His sixth and seventh of the season, respectively.

Saturday March 6th: The Canadiens absolutely shellac the Jets 7-1. Last week I discussed Jets video coach Matt Prefontaine and potential strategies he might use in evaluating some of the Jets’ play. This is a game where Prefontaine will likely set fire to the tape and then immediately throw out the trash can in which he burnt it. 

This is a game that is deceiving by the numbers once you go deeper than the scoreboard. The shots at 5v5 were 27-25 Canadiens, and 29-28 Jets (yeah that’s right) overall. The xGF% was 51.8 in favour of the Jets, and the high danger chances were 10-8 Montreal. This was a game of bad goaltending, sloppy mistakes, and just careless errors for the Jets. It was a night where they weren’t all bad, but they certainly were not dialled in by any stretch of the imagination. If I’m Prefontaine, or Paul Maurice, or anybody on this team, I don’t dwell on it. So neither should you. JETS PLAYER OF THE GAME: Laurent Brossoit, for coming off the bench to deal with that mess (in a game that he arguably should’ve started in the first place).

Tuesday March 9th: The Jets hang onto a 4-3 win against the Leafs in Toronto. Kinda the opposite of Saturday night in many regards. Tuesday night was a perfect display of the Jets ability to just hang around in a game. It’s tough to put them away, because they usually just keep coming at you. If you make a mistake, the Jets will find it. And that’s what they did. Despite a complete defensive breakdown on the part Nathan Beaulieu leading to the Leafs opening goal by Zach Hyman, the Jets settled in and were able to limit the Leafs from getting any real sustained pressure. Final shots in the game were 39-23 Toronto and 32-19 at 5v5, but the Jets were able to hop onto defensive breakdowns by the Leafs and pretty meh goaltending from Freddy Andersen when they were given the chance. Mason Appleton had the game-winner on the same sort of partial breakaway he seems to create all the time. JETS PLAYER OF THE GAME: Let’s make no mistake here, this was Connor Hellebuyck at his finest. When I say the Leafs didn’t get any sustained pressure, they did certainly have a lot of grade-A scoring chances. Hellebuyck was able to swallow up potential rebounds, or properly play them into the corner, or his defence took care of the rest. This could’ve easily gone south, but Connor stopped 36-of-39 and was absolutely brilliant. 

BEAULIEU OUT FOR WEEKS

The cost of Tuesday night’s victory against Toronto was that Nathan Beaulieu will be out for “weeks” after an injury to his hand/wrist on a shot block. This will cause the Jets’ pairings to shift around a little bit. Now, of course, Beaulieu has been somewhat struggling this season, and while he does offer that heart & soul aspect that I’m sure his teammates will miss, there is an opportunity to explore some more optimal pairings here. This is what I would run:

44 Morrissey - 2 Demelo

24 Forbort - 4 Pionk

8 Niku - 3 Poolman

Dylan Demelo is solid defensively, but has been constantly shuffled around. With Josh Morrissey finally settled into the season, I think this pairing would be a lot more stable now than it was in some instances earlier in the season. Consequently, this injury would draw Sami Niku into the lineup (at least that would be my choice). It is no secret and is perhaps a huge understatement to say that Niku is not exactly the most stout defender in the world. Not exactly a Rod Langway type, that’s for sure. However, Niku does have strong offensive instincts. And while Paul Maurice and Sami Niku don’t exactly fit stylistically, it is up to Paul Maurice to find a way to harness the kids talent right now. This is what he’s got, and he needs to make it work. Maurice is taken pride in getting through to everybody individually during his time in Winnipeg. While that seems to be mostly true, this is what he needs to do right now with Niku. In my opinion, the response to this injury is more on Maurice in the short-term than anybody else.

Having said all that, I’m sure it’ll be Logan Stanley on Thursday night with Sami Niku in the press box.

EIGHT DEFENSEMEN TO CONSIDER INTO THE TRADE DEADLINE

I need to clarify something before I go any further. I’m going to imagine essentially everybody that is going to read this already knows this, but on the off chance there is one reader out there who is unsure, it’s important I ease their mind.

I am not a hockey insider.

Having said that, I’ve predicted at least one of the Jets trades in each of the past five or six deadlines, dating back to Lee Stempniak whenever that was. I get Kevin Cheveldayoff, and I think we’d be dear friends if ever given the chance. 

With an already thin Jets’ blue line now forced to adapt to the injury to Beaulieu, it seems fairly obvious Winnipeg will be looking into at least one defender ahead of the April 12th trade deadline. I think it’s a good idea to take a look at a few of the names that I think will be available for the Jets if they want them, how likely I think each name is, and who is the favourite:

JORDIE BENN, Defence, Vancouver Canucks 

AGE: 33

CONTRACT: final year, $2M AAV, M-NTC

THE FIT: It’s a good fit. Stylistically, Jordie Benn is a stay-at-home defender who is not very strong with the puck. He isn’t overly physical anymore but is more than capable of providing that veteran grit if called upon. While most of his underlying numbers aren’t that great, he’s always been a strong shot blocker who is good at cutting down lanes. Defending the rush could be an issue at times because his speed is weak at this point, but he is above average with his angles and provides steady in-zone defence.

LIKELIHOOD: I think it would be strong, if not for a couple of things. First off, Benn does have five-team no trade protection. Now, I think it’s reasonable the Jets won’t be on there, but you never know. Winnipeg does seem to be, to some players, a less than desirable destination. But I think that’s more of a concern when you’re talking about a long-term contract for your leagues top stars. Secondly, are the Canucks going to be sellers? That remains to be seen, but they are three points out of a playoff spot behind the Habs who have five games in-hand. Take that as it is. For Jordie Benn, it a few months in a hotel regardless of the destination. So, you wanna go somewhere good. For the Jets, the fit is there. He’s a UFA at the end of the year. If you can get the Canucks to retain some salary, which is a big if, you’re in great shape. Ultimately, there are some factors that could easily prevent this, but the stylistic fit is there for a Maurice-led system. And not having to do an International Travel quarantine is a bonus. That could be a huge difference in the amount of time before he gets into some games. Honestly, I’ll say this is fairly likely.

JORDAN OESTERLE, Defence, Arizona Coyotes

AGE: 29

CONTRACT: final year, $1.4M AAV

THE FIT: It’s meh. I mean, Oesterle is a good depth option, and is a top-six defensemen on most teams. He is, however, more of an offensive minded guy. I think he’s got the ability to play a simplistic game like Maurice likes, but I am not sure he excels in many defensive areas that would make him the ideal fit on the bottom pairing, or wherever else. For now, you have to assume the Jets are acquiring someone to fill in for Beaulieu. He would be great for 10-15 minutes a night beside Tucker Poolman or Dylan Demelo. However, I think there’s a decent chance he draws out when Beaulieu returns, and given that he won’t be incredibly cheap (by that I mean the Jets will have to give up something other than “future considerations” to get him), I think it’s not the best move.

LIKELIHOOD: Just because the fit isn’t perfect doesn’t rule this out completely. Oesterle is just 29, comes relatively cheap from contract to contract, and quite frankly is better than Beaulieu. He can be useful on the powerplay, and does add a dimension to the Jets blue line that they don’t really have. He has 11 points in 25 games for the Coyotes, and could easily rack them up at a higher rate than that with the Jets offensive talent. I would say this is somewhat unlikely, but the low cap-hit, the left shot, the potential to sign him into next year make this a possibility. After all, Oesterle is a Michigan boy (think Hellebuyck, Connor, Copp), and is a former teammate of Laurent Brossoit in the Oilers organization for years. Everybody knows each other in this league.

MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO, Defence, Columbus Blue Jackets

AGE: 31

CONTRACT: final year, $700k

THE FIT: Hockey wise? Uh, hard to say. I mean, on the surface there isn’t much of one. Affectionately nicknamed “Del Zaster,” we’re talking about a guy that is a bit more of a skater and offensive minded guy. His underlying numbers defensively are down right awful this season, and aside from blocking shots (28), he has seven points to show for this season. That part isn’t terrible, but when you’re talking about a mainly offensive guy, it’s still a little worrisome. There are some things to say in addition to that, though. Keep in mind Del Zotto is playing for Columbus, who are probably the worst analytical team in the NHL this season. It is hard to get much of a read on whether there is more to Del Zotto at this point because this is the first time he’s consistently been in a lineup since 2017-2018 with Vancouver. While most of Del Zotto’s NHL success has come as John Tortorella as his coach, Maurice could find some use for him.

LIKELIHOOD: It’s not zero. While most of the things I mentioned above seem like it should be a clear no, Del Zotto is one of the most experienced options at a league minimum cap hit that have shown they can still play NHL minutes this season. He’s on a team that will likely be sellers. And he really shouldn’t cost anything in a trade; a very low pick. The likelihood is still low, but for the simple fact that he is an NHL defensemen for a low price, I would keep an eye on this as an 7th-8th defensemen option. After all, Cheveldayoff and Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen are trade buddies now.

MATTIAS EKHOLM, Defence, Nashville Predators

AGE: 30

CONTRACT: signed through 2021-22, $3.75M AAV

THE FIT: Perfect. Like, it’s a perfect fit. Analytically, Ekholm is one of the best defensive defensemen in the NHL, and the eye test would show you the same thing if you know what you’re watching. He’s a solid skater who makes very good decisions without the puck, and is also more than capable with it. Ekholm has nine points in nineteen games this season, and has been hovering around the point-every-two-games rate of production for a while. He is the big fish out there on the defence trade market this year, and would be the Jets number one defensemen with still another year under contract at an absolute bargain. The fit is perfect.

LIKELIHOOD: Maybe I should have started with the bad news on this one. Look, it’s not zero. I wouldn’t have put it here if I thought it absolutely wasn’t going to happen. For example, Columbus is bad - I would’ve put Zach Werenski on here if I thought it were gonna happen (after all, Cheveldayoff and Kekalainen are trade buddies now). 

However, the trade price is a huge obstacle. There are ways to make the salaries work, but my concern lies with the assets needed to acquire him. He is number one on Frank Seravalli’s trade bait board. You’re talking a first round pick and then some. And that’s fine. The problem lies in the then some. While Perfetti or Heinola move the needle (probably all the way, quite quickly) for Ekholm, the risk for the Jets might not be worth taking. You get another year of Ekholm, but at 30 years old. Does that outweigh what Perfetti or Heinola can do for you in the future? To me, no, and it’s not even close. So if Vesalainen gets you Ekholm, that’s one thing, but I’m really not sure he does. This really comes down to whether or not Cheveldayoff thinks the Jets cup chances are stronger in the next couple years than they are four years from now. I don’t think they are. Chevy has pulled off big deals often in the past, but this one might be tough. It’s not zero, but it’s very unlikely.

DAVID SAVARD, Defence, Columbus Blue Jackets

AGE: 29

CONTRACT: final year, $4.25M AAV

THE FIT: Really good for the most part. The one thing to note right away is that Savard is the only right-handed name on this list, but he is one of the few rentals on the right side that vastly improves their current options. Putting him with Morrissey on the top pairing would have to be a no-brainer for Maurice. While his numbers are weak this year, it is very much a product of the system he is in. He has been a positive-xGF% player each of the past four years, and regularly plays heavy minutes against top players when on the road. Savard is very structured, and seeks to take little risk on the offensive side. If Paul Maurice could create a top-three defensive defensemen in a lab, he would look real similar to David Savard.

LIKELIHOOD: The salary might be a challenge, but I think it’s a lukewarm possibility. Again, Cheveldayoff has a good working relationship with Jarmo Kekalainen. He wouldn’t be cheap, but he’d be cheaper than Ekholm in a trade; Perfetti and Heinola don’t enter this conversation. I wouldn’t head out to the jersey store yet, but I think this will be the big trade deadline name the Jets do their due diligence on. The likelihood is…uh, average likely. Is that a thing?

PATRIK NEMETH, Defence, Detroit Red Wings

AGE: 28

CONTRACT: final year, $3M AAV

THE FIT: Average. Everything about this option is very par for the course. Nemeth is a solid defensive defensemen who is on a bad team playing hard minutes without much support. He has had success in the past, and it’s been a little while since he’s been that guy. He is pretty good with his gap control. He is a smooth skater. He doesn’t take many risks. He can play with an edge. There are a lot of things to like about Nemeth in Maurice’s system. He does, however, make $3 million against the cap, which is less than ideal for what he will bring, which is no more than a third pairing guy. 

LIKELIHOOD: Fairly low. There are a few musts with this option. The first being that the Red Wings retain somewhere between 33-50% of his salary. The second being that they aren’t asking for anything more than a fourth round pick or a low-mid prospect. The third being he is not going to require a 14-day quarantine because the Jets really can’t afford to have a guy like this sitting for three weeks before getting into the lineup. $1.5 million is a lot to commit to a guy who may or may not get in. Having said all of this, I honestly think there’s a small chance he can return to form. He is only 28. At the height of his powers? Nemeth is a good second pairing guy beside Pionk. It’s not even that they need that. Derek Forbort has been solid. But Nemeth would be a good buy-low option. The problem is whether or not the Red Wings are in a sell-low on Nemeth mindset. I think there are a lot of obstacles here, but it’s still an option.

NIKLAS HJALMARSSON, Defence, Arizona Coyotes

AGE: 33

CONTRACT: final year, $5M AAV, full NMC

THE FIT: On the ice? Great. Hjalmarsson is one of, if not the best, defensive defensemen of the past decade. Yes, seriously. There really aren't a lot of cases to avoid that other than he’s not flashy. He has great awareness, is a smooth skater, and there’s really no defensive task he can’t take on. Stylistically he fits right into the Jets lineup just about anywhere. However, there are some problems here. Firstly, the Coyotes might not be sellers. Secondly, if they are sellers, Hjalmarsson has a full no-movement clause that he reportedly refused to waive as recently as September 2020. Thirdly, even if the Coyotes decided to sell and convince Hjalmarsson to come to Winnipeg, his $5 million against the cap provides a challenge for the bookkeepers in Winnipeg. Moreover, the Coyotes aren’t retaining salary at this point. I mean, come on, let’s get real. Fourthly? I hate to say it, but Hjalmarsson has struggled somewhat recently. He cracked his fibula just four games into the 2019-2020 season, and hasn't quite been his old self since then. We saw a similar thing happen to Dustin Byfuglien towards the end, where he missed some time, struggled to stay healthy off and on, and just couldn’t quite find that rhythm once he was back. Hjalmarsson is 33, and it is entirely possible that he is cooked. Still, he is a useful NHL defender.

LIKELIHOOD: The least likely on this list. The fit is fantastic from a hockey perspective, but is very tough from a business perspective. One of those “so you’re saying there’s a chance” from Dumb & Dumber situations.

RYAN MURRAY, Defense, New Jersey Devils

AGE: 26

CONTRACT: final year, $4.6M AAV

THE FIT: Solid for the most part. Murray is a defensive defensemen who skates very well, cuts off lanes pretty well and blocks shots pretty well. He doesn’t take many risks, but moves the puck very well when asked to. He can rush the puck, but doesn’t need to, and therefore would be a great soldier for Maurice in Winnipeg. The salary presents a problem, but there is much more flexibility to work than out with New Jersey than with, let’s say, the Coyotes for example. 

Now, I could write an entire article about Ryan Murray’s career. Honestly, I think I could write a dissertation about his development and usage and injury history. If he comes to Winnipeg, maybe I’ll do that. But for now, here’s the short of the long. Ryan Murray is incredibly unlucky when it comes to injuries. He is very hard to evaluate because he has never played in a steady system. He has had many stretches where he’s looked like an ideal top-four defensemen in the NHL. This season, his first in New Jersey, he missed some time with an illness during the Devils COVID outbreak despite never being added to the COVID protocol list. Lately, he has been a healthy scratch. Ryan Murray is an enigma. But for now? His trade value is super, super low.

LIKELIHOOD: Not super likely, but if the Jets could make the dollars work, this is a great opportunity. Making the dollars work will be a big challenge. However, this is a great redemption project for the Jets development staff. This is a former second overall pick who is still fairly young and fits their style quite well. He would be a cheap contract moving forward, and would be a great name on the second or third pairing on the left side considering he plays a very similar game to Josh Morrissey if he’s healthy. But that if is always a lurking issue with Murray.

MY PREDICTIONS: It’s early, but I feel good in saying I think one of Jordie Benn or Michael Del Zotto. However, I could see one of them and David Savard. It all depends how aggressive Chevy wants to get. Keep an eye on the Jets desire to trade for a defensemen over the next 10-14 days. Dylan Demelo was also banged up during the game Tuesday against the Leafs. If that nags, then something is gonna happen soon. 

- Tyler