#anyway i am feral for season 2 so far can't you tell

[infinitelystrangemachinex]

Jayce and the fallacy of the butterfly effect in Arcane's narrative

If Jayce's symbol is the butterfly, then my theory is that we're going into a full "butterfly effect" narrative in Act 2. Either we'll watch it happen, or we'll only see Jayce come out the other side of it changed by the experience, knowing - or more importantly, THINKING he knows - what to do to change the future. Literally, to "defend tomorrow."

tl;dr: Jayce will encounter the butterfly effect in season 2. Viktor and Mel both foreshadowed this in season 1. I think Jayce will fixate on Viktor and will believe that stopping or changing Viktor either in the past or the present - most likely the present - will mean he can save the future. I believe this will lead to an even worse tragedy and may have the same effect as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Ekko's approach to changing the future by sticking closer to the present - considering only tiny increments of time to alter more immediate future outcomes - will be the superior approach. I also think that Jayce attempting to change the future will create the conditions that push Viktor to become the Machine Herald.

One of the most common reactions even the casual viewer had to Arcane season 1 was this: "If [character] had just done this one small thing a little differently, [tragic event] wouldn't have happened!"

Arcane has been called a Greek tragedy for the main reason that because of how well built up the characters' personalities and reasonings are, there's no other way season 1 could have gone. There was no stopping the multiple tragedies that occurred, because with one event leading to another, the chain of seemingly inevitable events goes too far back to identify what one singular event caused everything, what one character made what one decision to put our characters on the terrible paths they walked.

Arcane is about to investigate this idea in its own narrative, and I think that Jayce will be the character to stumble into the flawed idea that you can change one event, or stop one character, and change the future for the better. This is because Jayce struggles with a few very interesting character flaws, one of them being that he believes himself to be the main character, and it is therefore his responsibility to intervene, be a hero, and fix things.

Viktor and Mel both foreshadow Jayce's future encounter with the butterfly effect.

Recall that Viktor said: "There is always a choice."

Jayce sees choices in black and white, believes that he has no other options but to go along with what he's persuaded and pushed into, and acts too boldly with too much power multiple times.

Recall that Mel said: "We can't change what fate has in store for us, but we don't have to face it alone."

Jayce tries to solve big problems on his own, and though he delegates to Enforcers and the like, Jayce relies on his reasoning and his alone to make important decisions if he doesn't simply become persuaded - usually through strong emotions like fear - by other characters. In addition, since Mel is specifically talking about Viktor's plight here, it's worth mentioning that while Jayce did say that he would help Viktor in acts 2 and 3 of season 1, Jayce does wind up leaving Viktor to face his fate alone. When Jayce tries to change that fate in s2 ep1, ep2 shows that only tragedy can come of this as well.

Viktor and Mel's statements here are not contradictory. Viktor makes the point that you can always make a choice. In context, he's literally referring to the classic "secret third option," because given a choice between aggression and passivity, war and surrender, Viktor chooses to defuse the bomb instead. Mel, interestingly, seems to believe that destiny is fixed in a broad sense, and she operates as a politician and diplomat and investor who navigates that line of destiny in the most optimal way possible. In reality, in context, she is referring to the fact that Viktor can't change the way he was born and so he has no way to change his fate and therefore must face it, which is true - she's only missing the information that Viktor actually does have the means to change his illness and his body. Her wisdom still applies however, because he'll have to accept the hand that fate deals him after he makes that choice. Will he face it alone, or not?

There is always a choice, there's even secret third options, because having a fate doesn't mean that you are doomed to make only one possible series of choices. What it does mean is that each choice comes with a hand that fate deals you. It is impossible to know what all of these branching choices and consequences are in advance, and it is just as impossible in hindsight - the branches are too complex and the end outcomes are all equally meaningful, just different. If Arcane season 2 is to be a tragedy, it may show us that each possible outcome is still tragic if you fall for the fallacy of the butterfly effect.

Jayce is counseled by some of the wisest, cleverest characters with the deepest life experiences in Arcane, but he hardly ever takes that counsel to heart. If he does, he still acts on that counsel in flawed ways that have unintended consequences. This will come to a head in season 2.

Viktor and Jayce both have a butterfly following them around in season 1. The butterfly effect refers to one small seemingly insignificant event changing the course of history, and changing that event therefore changes history. Viktor bled over the railing of a Hexgate in season 1:

And Heimerdinger sees what we can only assume is Viktor's blood contaminating (?) the Hexgate in s2 ep3:

This might be the seemingly unimportant "inciting incident" that Jayce (and Heimerdinger and Ekko) settle on as something that should be avoided or erased by changing the past (if they time-travel with Ekko, for example).

I doubt that, if this is what this crew chooses to fixate on, it will be the only event that is considered as something to change. But let's take this and run with it for the sake of discussion.

As silly as it sounds, how do you stop Viktor from allowing his blood to come into contact with the arcane? Stop Viktor's involvement with the Academy entirely? Don't invent Hextech at all? But what if someone else invents Hextech besides Jayce? What if future tragedy befalls Piltover because it didn't invent Hextech?

The possibilities and what-ifs could branch on forever. But because Jayce is who he is, and because his tragedy with Viktor is still raw and recent and frightening, I think Jayce's butterfly effect experience will have to do with Viktor.

My personal prediction is that the timeskip between s2 ep3 and ep4 will be Jayce experiencing a timeline where Viktor, taken over by the Hexcore, brings about an apocalyptic event similar to what Heimerdinger experienced in his past. Either Jayce and co. can't go into the past to change the present, or Heimerdinger and/or Ekko advise strongly against it to avoid a paradox. This will lead to them re-entering the canon Arcane timeline before this apocalypse, but still after the timeskip. Jayce, believing that destroying Viktor and his cult will save the future, and believing that resurrecting Viktor was Jayce's mistake to fix, attacks him. But the consequences don't unfold the way he hopes, because trying to change fate once the cards have already been dealt has led to tragedy before.

The butterfly is a symbol of something other than just the butterfly effect - change, evolution, and rebirth. If the butterfly symbolizes the butterfly effect for Jayce, then I think it has a different meaning for Viktor - the change and rebirth meaning.

I've always found it very interesting that we see a similar-looking butterfly on Progress Day... but made of metal.

Every time Viktor's situation changes, he adapts and evolves. If Jayce attacks him, if his cult is destroyed, if the Hexcore is causing Viktor to decay, if all of these things happen at once - he'll just evolve again, and I think the Machine Herald is the next step. And the Machine Herald will be a triumph for Viktor, but Jayce will believe that he's created something even worse. The resulting feud will be a personal nightmare for both of them.

I think this still allows Viktor to use his own agency to choose to become the Machine Herald (the MH will probably be the "secret third option" that saves Viktor, or there will be a secret third option that ends the feud) while still allowing Jayce to be offended and horrified at whatever the Machine Herald represents or is trying to do in the undercity. Introducing the element of time travel allows Arcane to explore the meta concept of tragedy and fate that season 1 was built on while showing that you can't "solve" a tragedy, because there are other terrible possibilities lurking behind alternate choices. Especially if what you're trying to change is singular people or events and not systems of power.

This is why Ekko's approach with his Z-drive will be superior to Jayce's sweeping attempt at changing the future. Ekko's goal has always been societal change. He creates his own punk society in the undercity, more progressive and successful than anything Vander or Silco ever created, and a better bastion of safety, hope, and progress than what Heimerdinger founded in Piltover. Trying to change systems by going back in time is most likely futile. But taking what Ekko has already built in the Firelights, curing his tree, and fighting for the Firelights' survival bit by bit by optimizing the present with the Z-drive shows that:

It's more worth it to focus on becoming wise (Ekko's mask is an owl) and making choices you won't regret

It's best if you don't face your fate alone (act as a collective and take care of each other)

Consider every option, not just the obvious black and white choices

Maintain and fix what you've already built instead of abandoning it once things get difficult

Adapt as needed if the choices you made lead to dark consequences, and once again, stick together and take care of each other when the bad times do come

That's my Act 2 but, ultimately, my season 2 prediction based on the butterfly symbolism we've already seen. Ekko's involvement is what will give the series the at least partial happy ending that the creators have referred to. I personally don't think that the Viktor/Jayce feud will end quite so well, but maybe, they will still survive.

[james-stark-the-writer]

my brain has now resorted to thinking about how much i miss Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D and that entire crew, like Phase 2 was rough in the movies with only a 50% hit rate, but Phase 2 kind of was Marvel's Peak honestly, as far as extended universe stuff goes. like Phase 4 was actually the MCU's Peak in their own stuff, but Phase 2 and even early Phase 3 TV stuff that was technically still Phase 2 bc it was post-Avengers, like the Netflix shows and Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D? oh it was such a great time. i miss it so much.

i've been looking for people who've reacted to the entire show to vicariously live through them in reaction videos and honestly, i forgot how weird season 1 was in the beginning, like it's extremely excruciatingly Whedon because the show transforms so much from season 1 to season 2, bc S02 is currently in my S+ tier as you can see above, like it's genuinely i think one of the highest peaks Marvel ever achieves. like season 1 honestly is genuinely hard to sit through even just through the reaction videos that i'm seeing like oh that dialogue is obnoxiously Whedon, and every female character is just so Whedon-esque it's really irritating. and i still cannot sit through the trilogy of episodes i like to call the "disaster trilogy of season one" because you can tell Whedon was really closely attached to those episodes and it's episodes 9-11 (might be 10-12) of season 1 iirc, where there's like a weird plotline about Coulson basically stalking a woman because he loves her so much and other weird shit that's extremely Whedon (derogatory), i hate it so bad. it's easily one of the worst parts of the show in that season. but season 1 really gets going into the second half of it because i assume that's when the man would have stepped a way to do Age of Ultron instead and given the reins over to other people, and those other people did a much better job than him, season 5B excluded because oh i hate their execution of the "you can redeem a fascist" plotline so bad. and nazi Fitz is also the worst thing ever, i think.

anyway, i wish AoS lasted for a little while longer, even as PEAK as S07 was, bc i miss new adventures with the crew. i genuinely miss them all so much. i'm feral about the show the same way i am feral about Riverdale, i just don't talk about it as much bc people at least appreciate Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D more than they do Riverdale. i don't feel like i need to defend AoS as much. but it still is one of the best things Marvel has ever made, unquestionably so. it is absolutely Marvel's Legends of Tomorrow except much straighter and not nearly queer enough, but you know we can't all be Legends of Tomorrow (also one of the greatest shows of our time). even though Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D S07 has so many references to Legends of Tomorrow, like they saw that show and were like "we should do that" and that's kind of why season 7 is PEAK, but it's not imitation Legends of Tomorrow, it's still Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D and that's lovely.

i still haven't seen the three-hour Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D retrospective/analysis that's been in my watch later for like months, so i'm gonna go watch that now.

okay, i have bad news, i guess, i have unfortunately not been able to stop thinking about Phase 4 projects like Hawkeye and Eternals and She-Hulk and how much i ADORE the absolute fuck out them, and with the Agatha show coming up and wanting to see more of Kathryn devouring the role, unfortunately the brainworms are too convincing rn. if you see me catching up with Phase 5 on here in the next few weeks, ignore me. or better yet, forgive me.

thing i'm most excited to see is Echo, since i still haven't gotten to it and i'm really excited to see what they do with the character since she was one of the best parts of Hawkeye; another thing i'm excited to see is The Marvels just to see more of Iman Vellani; what i'm least excited to see is Loki because season one of Loki is still basically at the bottom of my MCU tierlist (Michael Waldron, i LOATHE you and your work); what i'm weirded out by on principle is Secret Invasion (yes it's the intro shit); and what i'm deeply unconcerned with getting to is What If? bc that shit was actually the worst thing in Phase 4 by a dozen country miles (Loki was saved from being the worst thing by What If? S01, and No Way Home at least tried for a chunk of its runtime.). i've already seen Guardians Vol. 3 and D&W, so i don't have too much to catch up with in terms of pure runtime.

anyway. i'm shockingly optimistic about things for some reason. i'm sure the good shit will still be good, and if it's even half as great as Phase 4 was, i'll be glad to have seen it. i just hope the bad shit isn't as bad as the bad shit in Phase 4 bc that was insufferable.

fun bonus that took me actual HOURS of effort to make since there are apparently no up to date templates including every marvel production and the shows separated by seasons, since those are obviously not created equally and their quality fluctuates a bunch (and when i tried making my own template — after spending far too long trying to find unique and interesting posters that were also legible enough at these tiny sizes to actually be useful — the website just crashed and refused to let me make it) but: if you're curious where i place most Marvel projects, well. here ya go [check the alt text if you can't identify a poster or are confused about which season it is etc., and if you're curious about why things are where they are, here's my letterboxd which has reviews for almost everything ranked here, besides the TV shows that aren't on there, obviously.]: