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think32blog · 5 years ago

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Thoughts on the border by Phil Mac Giolla Bháin

I was introduced to the realities of the Border when the “cattle boat” which had sailed from the Broomielaw in Glasgow to North Wall in Dublin was taken off line.

Then the ten year old me learned about places like Stranraer and Larne.

In order to get to Dublin to take the train to my father’s town of Westport we had to cross the Border.

The last time I recall that militarised demarcation line entering my consciousness was in the summer of 1994.

We crossed the Border from Fermanagh into Leitrim and a very large member of An Garda Síochána looked at my green passport.

When he saw my name as Gaeilge it prompted a question in the first language of the state:

"Cá bhfuil sibh ag dul?” he asked me.

“Táimid ag dul go Contae Mhaigh Eo.”

We were indeed going to my father’s county in the Wesht for a family holiday.

Such a linguistic interaction on the other side of the line would have been dangerously out of place, especially with the locally recruited security forces.

As we drove towards the West we all felt a relief to be in our own place and not in the Six Counties.

While we were in Mayo Ireland beat Italy at soccer in New York and a British death squad did their stuff at Loughinisland.

Two years later we had settled back home in Ireland.

For herself and me, both with an Irish born parent and Irish grandparents on the other side of the house this little island was always home.

We’ve reared our brood here in this the quintessential Border county of Donegal.

Much has changed here since the days of Brits and checkpoints.

These days I think nothing of driving to Derry for NUJ meetings or to pillage the local shopping centres as post-Brexit Sterling tumbles against the Euro.

Over that twenty one years the Partition line has slowly dissolved and the European Union has played a positive role in minimising that geo-political disfigurement on this island.

However, now we could be faced with some of it coming back again.

In February 2016 before the Brexit vote I wrote a piece for the Scottish politics Blog Bella Caledonia.

It might warrant another read now.

A lot of my fears expressed in that piece appear worryingly prescient.

The Irish story over the centuries has been about events in Europe and Britain having unforeseen yet profoundly long lasting consequences here in Ireland, e.g. the Reformation, counter-reformation, French revolution and the First World War.

They all had a uniquely Irish impact on people here.

Now the UK has decided to do walking away from the European Union.

My green passport is no more, it was a beautiful document with a gold inlaid Harp.

Although my merlot coloured travel document today isn’t nearly as aesthetically pleasing I view the EU livery is an emblem of peaceful cooperation for a continent disfigured by centuries of war.

The Peace Process on this island probably couldn’t have occurred without the Maastricht Treaty.

In creating a more harmonised union across the continent of Europe the stage was set for two member states of the EU, assisted by the Clinton Administration, to explore a dénouement to the war situation on this island.

Back then I was privy to the thinking of some senior Republicans as they entered the talks that would produce the Good Friday Agreement.

They were calculating, prescient men.

Some of them had spent a large chunk of their youth in British prisons.

This had given them with the ability to sketch out a long game, but at no point did I hear anyone gaming out Britain leaving the European Union!

However, we are nearly at that juncture.

I have, in recent weeks, spoken to some old comrades from that time.

We shared a joke about how events can blindside all of us.

Some things, though, do not change.

The modern Irish revolutionary tradition, which emerged in the 19th century was based on the following rationale:

England will only attend to Ireland when the Irish become a problem for them.

When the people of Ireland were docile then they could literally starve to death and it didn’t really register with the Westminster tribe.

Now the Bullingdon boys are startled that the Micks could actually create a roadblock to Brexit on the Lifford to Stabane road.

The Backstop…

We now have the situation where even a Taoiseach who last year wore a local variant of the Poppy in Dáil Éireann cannot agree with the Grand Old Dame Britannia on what to do with her Irish frontier.

The son of an Indian immigrant and educated at an exclusive private school that has a Church of Ireland ethos, Varadkar isn’t exactly a Provo from central casting.

Indeed he might be the most pro-British Taoiseach in the history of the State.

When such a person can cause Border problems for the ruling elite on the Thames then we are truly in uncharted waters.

I think the fact that Leo Varadkar’s Chief Whip during that phase of the negotiations was Donegal TD Joe McHugh might be one of those small details that can ultimately have significant implications.

I’ve known Joe since he was an unfancied candidate for the County Council here.

His political career has spanned the Good Friday Agreement and he has been involved in several EU funded cross Border initiatives.

During the Phase One part of the Withdrawal Agreement talks there appeared to be a binary choice between a hard border or Northern Ireland remaining within the Single Market and the Customs Union.

Quite simply there would need to be a trade border either at Lifford or Larne.

Of course, the former subverts the Belfast Agreement and the latter compromises the integrity of the United Kingdom.

However, because the British government was dependent on the DUP to support her minority administration Theresa May said that a trade barrier between the Six Counties and Britain was a non-starter.

Therefore, the British negotiating team introduced the Backstop.

Consequently, the whole of the UK would need to effectively remain within the economic structures of the EU in order to satisfy Arlene that the “Precious Union” would not be compromised at Larne.

That little Ireland can cause a hold up in the Brexit talks should put to bed the “too wee” arguments in Scotland.

This current Border impasse demonstrates that a small EU state like the Republic of Ireland has a voice at Brussels and that it is one that is being heard.

If Brexit is a fascinating parlour game for the chattering classes here on the debatable land in the North West of Ireland it is prosaically real.

The European Union played a key role in bringing the Northern conflict to a close.

Brexit has the capacity to subvert the slow progress we have made in the last two decades.

The recent murder in Creggan of my colleague and friend Lyra McKee shows what is at stake.

None of this registers with the Westminster tribe as they play out a rivalry that has existed since the day that matron favoured one of them over the other at Eton.

That place remains the never failing source of all our political evils.

The people of this island deserve better.

Phil Mac Giolla Bháin is an author, blogger, journalist, novelist and playwright.

He is based in County Donegal, Ireland.

He is an active member of the National Union of Journalists and the chairman of the Irish Writers Union.

An established print journalist for many years Phil has also built up a considerable online readership through his blog www.philmacgiollabhain.ie .

His journalism over the past decade has focussed on highlighting the incidence of anti-Irish racism in Scotland.

He was a staff reporter on An Phoblacht for many years.

His debut novel “The Squad” was published by Books Noir in 2018.

#unitedireland #irishpolitics #irishunity #ireland #ambition4ireland

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theoptimisticpatriot · 3 years ago

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England and the Union

Professor John Denham – written evidence (FGU0027)

House of Lords Constitution Committee

Inquiry into the Future Governance of the UK

I am the Director of the Centre for English Identity and Politics at the University of Southampton. I was MP for Southampton Itchen from 1992-2015 and the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government from 2009-2010. (In that capacity I laid the orders creating the Greater Manchester Combined Authority, the first combined authority). My published work includes a study of Labour’s approach to the governance of England (in Governing England, British Academy, 2018). I am also a Founder and Director of the Southern Policy Centre.

The focus of the Centre for English Identity and Politics is on the relationship between national identity and political choices, and on the governance of England and the union. In the past twenty years English, British and combined identities have taken on a political salience with, for example ,‘English not British’ voters voting heavily Leave and ‘British not English’ voters tending to vote Remain. National identity is also a good predictor of attitudes towards English governance and the union.

The Southern Policy Centre is an independent think tank for central southern England. The SPC has delivered research, reports and events on devolution and regional policy since 2014 and has argued that any local devolution proposals should reflect a coherent regional strategy.

Summary

England’s place in and relationship to the Union is rarely directly addressed. But many of the tensions within the Union stem from the conflation of the government of England and the government of the Union. The failure to delineate the two has serious consequences that have become more apparent since the establishment of the devolved administrations:

The Union government is perceived as confusing English interests with those of the Union and pursuing them irrespective of the wishes of other parts of the Union

England has been left without a coherent machinery of national government, any national democratic institutions, and as the most centralised nation in Europe

By separating the government of England from that of the Union it will be possible to:

Ensure that the Union can find a shared purpose for the 21st century,

Ensure coherent governance of the Union as a whole with powers exercised at appropriate levels

Enable relationships between the parts of the Union to be placed on a more transparent and robust basis

End the confusion between English interests and Union interests

Provide England with both a clear machinery of government and radical devolution

Create a national forum in which England’s future can be shaped

Radical and ambitious change brings many complex challenges. Constitutional reform should be conceived as a process of ‘strategic incrementalism’ in which successive individual reforms move the Union and the nations in the desired direction.

The purpose of the Union

While the Union is underpinned by much shared history, shared experience and personal relationships talk of ‘saving’ the Union can imply that the Union’s value lies in its historic role as a British state.

The 21st century case for the Union should be that its component parts can achieve shared aims – such as the transition to zero carbon economy, building a post-Brexit economy, and a more prosperous and inclusive society - more effectively together than separately. Such shared aims will require a Union in which power is distributed between the Union, the nations and the localities. This will create centres of autonomous and legitimate power, exercised by different political actors, and in which coordination and cooperation will be more important than any ability to govern from the centre. This is not how the Union currently works.

The dominance of the Union by England

UK devolution was both necessary and desirable but the underlying assumption that no further changes were needed to the governance of England or the Union was deeply flawed. This view still dominates much current thinking. The terms of reference of the recent Dunlop[1] Review, for example, made no reference to England.

England’s position within the Union has been discussed since Home Rule debates of the late 19th century. The received wisdom, endorsed by the Kilbrandon Report in 1973 was that, given its disproportionate size, wealth and power, allowing England a democratic or political nationhood would dominate and thus destabilise the Union.

This view formed before UK devolution and the experience of devolved administrations. Twenty years of devolution have actually served to make England’s size and influence more rather than less explicit. Its weight is no longer concealed within a Union government but made more obvious by it. In the eyes of many, particularly outside England, the Union is synonymous with a London centric Union state that has been unable to respond to the realities of devolution, and a government with Anglo-centric priorities which rest largely on electoral support in England.

The effect of the current asymmetric constitution is to give England an obvious and disproportionate impact on the United Kingdom government.

The UK Government

Education, health and social care, local government and many other areas of domestic policy are now devolved. In England they remain the responsibility of the Union government. As a consequence, the UK Cabinet now includes many members whose responsibilities lie exclusively in England. Those with equivalent responsibilities in the devolved administrations have no representation in the Union government. (Other members of the Cabinet have remits that only cover England and Wales, and others have significantly greater responsibility in England than the rest of the Union.) This institutionalises a fundamental imbalance between the representation of England within the Union government and that of the devolved nations.

A public manifestation of this came at the beginning of the pandemic when politicians, civil servants, and the London based UK media were often imprecise about whether UK ministerial announcements applied to the whole UK or, as was often the case, England alone.

Relationships across the Union

Reports and statements by senior civil servants[2], academics the first Minister of Wales[3], and the Dunlop Report have all confirmed the weakness of mechanisms for intra-government coordination within the Union at both political and civil service level. Civil servants and Union ministers have variously ignored developments within the devolved administrations, acted as though devolution has not occurred, or sought to intervene in policy areas that are formally devolved.

The mechanisms that formally exist for intra-government coordination have only been used inconsistently. In discussions with other nations, the Union is frequently represented by UK Ministers who are also expected to represent English interests. Intra-governmental mechanisms do not guarantee devolved nations the right to ensure their views are taken into account. Court rulings have confirmed the limited power of the Sewell Conventions.

The devolved administrations in Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland have all criticised Union government decisions on, for example, the Northern Ireland protocol and the Internal Market Bill that conflicted with their views on the best interests of the future of the Union[4]. The perception that the Union government reflects an English view of the future of the Union under Brexit has been damaging to the cohesion of the Union.

These attitudes and practices are deeply embedded in the culture of Westminster and Whitehall. They stem directly from the conflation of the Union government with the government of England, and the dominance of a London-centric view of both. The cumulative impact is to sustain a Union in which the UK government reflects an English view of what is best for the Union.

Divergent politics

The devolution process did not anticipate that the politics of the different parts of the Union would diverge as significantly as they have. In the last three general elections, the British nations have been contested by different parties, often on different issues, and different parties have ‘won’ in each. The alignment between the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP in Northern Ireland and the Conservative and Labour parties has weakened with the rise of the DUP and Sinn Fein.

The current Union government is elected overwhelmingly in England but unable to win in the other nations. In contrast with the 1980s, however, it is not obvious that any single British party will be able to form a Union-wide majority government in the foreseeable future. The decline in ‘British politics’ in the sense of politics being contested across the British nations by the same parties and around essentially the same issues has highlighted the tension created by a Union government whose legitimacy rests almost entirely in England.

Fiscal fairness and solidarity

The Barnett formula is widely seen as unfair, providing an over generous settlement to Scotland, underfunding Wales, and proving English localities with no guarantee of a fair share of national or Union funding. The conflation of the Union government and the government of England reduces the political incentive to create a new formula based on Union wide principles and suppresses debate about fair funding for England.

England within the Union[5]

It might be assumed that the current asymmetric devolution must work to England’s advantage. In practice it leads to a poor system of governance of England itself. The Westminster and Whitehall culture that has marginalised and undermined the devolved administrations is also reflected in the Union state’s approach to England. The Union states variously ignores, marginalises or seeks to intervene in England’s local democratic structures. As a consequence, England is over-centralised, has no national machinery of government, and no clear system of ministerial or executive accountability. England lacks any national democratic forum or institutions.

England as a nation is largely marginalised in political and official debate. England itself is rarely named in announcement by ministers or opposition politicians who normally refer vaguely to ‘the country’ or misleadingly to ‘Britain’.

Machinery of government

The Union still operates as though the United Kingdom were a single unitary state in which England had no separate presence, a state of affairs that has not existed for 20 years.

Twenty years after devolution no clear machinery of government coordinates national policy across England. England has no First Minister, Secretary of State or permanent Cabinet committee. Despite the large areas of domestic policy that are ‘England only’ the Union state does not assess the cumulative impact of these policies nor provide the coordination that is essential between them.

National democracy

England has no national democratic forum of English MPs that can provide a crucible for debate about the state and future of the nation. The obscure and bureaucratic procedures of English Votes for English Laws (EVEL) have not given England a national voice, nor do they ensure that laws that apply only in England are made entirely by MPs elected from England. This is in stark contrast to the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd and Northern Ireland Assembly.

While the great majority of Westminster MPs are from English constituencies, the Westminster Parliament does not function as a national parliament for England. Ministers are accountable to the Union parliament, but no mechanisms provide for direct accountability to English MPs for English policy, or to assess the condition and future of England as a whole.

The centralisation of England

In the absence of a defined machinery of English government there is no coherent government from which powers can be devolved England. The patchwork of inconsistent and arbitrary measures which have passed for devolution stem directly from England’s government by the Union and the centralised Union state’s disinterest in England as a nation.

England is the most centralised nation in Europe (measured by the extent to which sub-national bodies have control over both the raising and spending of resources). It has become more centralised since UK devolution with, for example, the removal of much of school education from local government control. The impact of austerity fell disproportionately on England’s local government. Together with the rising costs of social care the financial pressures have underlined how little control England’s localities have over their own resources.

Over the past twenty years the extent to which regional structures , cities, combined mayoral authorities or ‘levelling up’ areas have been allowed additional resources or autonomy has been strictly limited in size and scope. Local ‘deals’ have been highly conditional on Union government approval. English ‘devolution’ has been described as a process of ‘elite co-option’[6] which aims to secure local implementation of Whitehall priorities.

The centralist and London centric approach to government towards both England’s localities and the devolved administrations that is manifested by the Union state means radical and systemic devolution of power within England is unlikely as long as England is governed by the Union government.

[My evidence the PACAC Select Committee on the future of devolution in England can be accessed here and may be regarded as an appendix to this submission]

English public sentiment[7]

English public opinion is not as clearly pro-Union as might be expected. While only a minority would support independence around half are at best ambivalent about whether Scotland leaves the Union. A majority of English residents think that England has distinct interests within the Union and want political parties to defend those interests.

There is relatively little public debate about England’s governance and opinion polling needs to be treated with caution. However, for over 20 years a settled majority of English residents have supported the principle that MPs from outside England should be excluded from making English legislation. More residents support than oppose a separate parliament for England but many express no preference. In all polling, support for national measures (such as EVEL or a Parliament) is significantly greater than for devolution to regional assemblies

Notwithstanding the preference for English legislation and policy to be made at national level there is broad support for the devolution of the delivery of services to democratic local bodies.

England and the future of the Union

Future reform of England’s position within the Union should have three aims:

To constraint the ability of England or an English based government to act on behalf of the Union as a whole

To provide England with a national democracy and machinery of government equivalent to that in the other nations

To challenge and transform the culture and practice of the current Union state to support a genuine Union of nations.

To do this it will be necessary to separate the government of England from that of the Union, establish new mechanisms for determining Union-wide policy, and place relationships between the nations and the Union on a new formal and statutory basis.

No reform can alter England’s size and weight relative to other parts of the Union. A Union of consent will depend on the balances of power, influence and finance that will always need to be struck between its component parts. Union reform will bring these trade-offs into a transparent and open process. Reforming England’s position within the Union will enable the 21st century Union to be based on clear principles:

The right of each nation to determine its own domestic policy within the Union, based on the principle of popular sovereignty

Separation between the domestic governance of each nation and the governance of the Union

Placing the relationships between the nations and between the nations and the Union on a statutory basis

Guaranteeing the rights of each nation within the Union and providing robust mechanisms for coordination across the Union

Fiscal solidarity and fairness across the Union

Subsidiarity with the Union and within each part of the Union

Strategic incrementalism

It is unlikely that all the institutional, legal, political and financial consequences of implementing these principles could be accomplished in one single constitutional reform . Identifying the principles of reform allows a process of ‘strategic incrementalism’. This process would see the adoption, over time, of individual measures which move the nations and Union towards the full implementation of the principles. Each measure would be justifiable in its own right and as necessary, be allowed to ‘bed down’ and able to shape the next stage of reform.

Incremental changes have occurred ever since the initial UK devolution. These changes have lacked any consistency underlying principles or sense of strategic direction. A new approach is required

English institutions and the governance of England

A first step to create a machinery of English government would establish a Cabinet Committee for England, led by a Secretary of State and supported by Whitehall reorganisation.

A case can be made for a free-standing parliament, but both popular opinion and an incremental approach would suggest that evolving Westminster into a dual-mandate parliament – in which English only business is conducted by English MPs sitting alone - would be the easiest (and cheapest) first step. It would provide a democratic English national forum and legislature.

It can be anticipated that reforms to the machinery of government and Westminster might well lead towards the appointment of a First Minister for England, and clearer accountability of English ministers to English MPs. Support for a parliament for England might grow. But these outcomes do not need to be determined now, and the processes could evolve over time.

Similarly, the replacement of Westminster sovereignty by popular national sovereignty should be seen as process rather than a single event, continuing an evolution that began in practice (if not in principle) with the establishment of the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly and the Northern Ireland Peace Process.

Relationships between the Union government and the nations

The first priority should be to place the relationship between the nations and the Union government on a statutory footing. Robust mechanisms for the resolution of disputes between the nations and the Union government should be put in place. Mechanisms for improving coordination should be overhauled. England should be separately represented in intra-government discussions, perhaps by the Secretary of State for England.

As the machinery of government for England develops, the UK Cabinet should comprise only ministers with UK wide responsibilities, together with the formal representation of the first ministers of the devolved administrations. In the longer term more formal agreement will be need on the determination of policy on the key Union issues of macro-economic policy, defence and security, trade and foreign policy and fiscal fairness and solidarity.

In the short-term, a UK Senate could be created to represent all four parts of the nation, the UK government, and local government in all parts of the Union. While there is a case for the simultaneous abolition of the House of Lords, this could be delayed ensuring a smooth transition to new working practices in the Commons.

Fiscal fairness and solidarity

Fiscal solidarity and fairness requires a UK wide funding formula, based on local need, and from which local and national budgets can be constructed. Moving from the current Barnett formula will be a lengthy process that will not only depend on outcomes but on political trust and solidarity across the Union. In the short term the priority should be to address the most obvious current underfunding of Wales and of some English regions.

The illusion of English regionalism

Proposals for a Federation of the Nations and Regions have been made by a number of organisations and individuals including, most recently, in the contest for leadership of the Labour Party[8]. Although there is little detail available, the proposed Federation appears to involve enhanced devolution for the devolved nations and Northern Ireland, and devolution within England. English local government would be represented in a UK Senate comprising Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland and the UK government. However, England would continue to be governed by the Union government, it would have no machinery of government, no national forum and no national representation within the Union.

Devolution within England cannot be regarded as an alternative to delineating the government of England at national level. It would be impractical, undesirable and deeply unpopular to divide England into mini-statelets with their own legislature. England is too densely populated and inter-connected to have, for example, seven or nine different higher education fees structures, or NHS and social care regimes. Without legislative devolution, England’s law will remain the responsibility of the Union parliament and its national government will be the Union government. No representation of English mayors or regional bodies in a UK Senate would provide England with comparable representation to that of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland by their First Ministers, and the UK by the Prime Minister.

Administrative and executive devolution within England, although highly desirable in its own right, will not resolve any of the problems arising from the conflation of the Union and England’s governments. England’s weight within the Union government would continue to distort Union priorities.

Conclusion

The separation of the government of England from that of the Union is the single most important reform in re-establishing a robust and shared Union that can prosper in the 21st century.

30/04/2021

[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-dunlop-review-into-uk-government-union-capability

[2] https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/publications/union-crossroads/

[3] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/04/wales-mark-drakeford-says-remote-boris-johnson-is-putting-union-at-risk

[4] https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/publications/resist-reform-or-re-run-short-and-long-term-reflections-scotland-and

[5] See, for example, Denham, Gallagher and others in ‘Governing England’ British Academy, 2018

[6] See for example

[7] See for example ‘Englishness’, Henderson and Wyn Jones, 2021; Curtice in ‘Governing England’ ibid; BBC/YouGov 2018 and CEIP 2019, available from soton.ac.uk/ceip

[8] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/26/rebecca-long-bailey-calls-for-greater-powers-for-scotland-and-wales

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laura-elizabeth91 · 7 years ago

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It was about 7pm on Thursday — five hours into a showdown with her Brexit “war cabinet”— that Theresa May revealed her hand and persuaded senior ministers both to agree a policy on leaving the EU and that she might have a future as prime minister. After months of obfuscation May and the other members gathered in the boardroom at Chequers, the prime minister’s country retreat, where she asked her chief civil service negotiator, Oliver Robbins, to outline what she had in mind. It is a measure of May’s enigmatic nature that only one of her ministers — David Davis, the Brexit secretary — had any idea what Robbins was about to say.

“She does treat everybody equally,” one cabinet minister joked. “She keeps everybody in the dark.”

Robbins mapped out a four-point plan. When Britain begins trade talks with the EU in March the UK will: ● Demand mutual recognition of standards for goods traded between the UK and the EU ● Make a public commitment that British standards will remain as high as those of the EU ● Pledge to keep rules and regulations “substantially similar” ● Insist upon the creation of a dispute mechanism to oversee areas where the UK wants to diverge from EU regulations — and that the European Court of Justice would have no role in it.

One of those present explained: “We are going to be associate members of various agencies on things like aviation, chemicals and pharmaceuticals and then we get [EU] market access and don’t need to have our products checked in more than one jurisdiction. We can decide at any time, in the full knowledge that there are consequences, that we don’t want to be regulated in this way.”

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In the key moment of the meeting May turned immediately to Boris Johnson, the most outspoken Brexiteer, and asked his opinion, putting the foreign secretary on the spot. The fourth point was enough for him. “It answers the requirement to take back control of our laws,” Johnson said. “This is something which we can sell to the country and will unite the party.”

Next up was Philip Hammond, usually the most outspoken minister pushing for close alignment with the EU. “This is broadly a good paper,” the chancellor said. May visibly relaxed. Her two most awkward ministers were on board. There was even time for levity. Another who was present said: “If you both agree with it, there must be something wrong.”

There was an immediate understanding that May had played her cards well. “Her wisdom was that she got Olly to explain it,” one cabinet minister said. “If it was a complete stinker then it would have been Olly who got lacerated.” Instead, Robbins received plaudits, even from Brexiteers who have seen him as a malign force guiding Britain to a softer EU exit than they would like.

“It was like watching live television,” one minister said. “You didn’t know whether it was all going to end in tears or not. She held the room. She’s got the title and the status but it felt much more like she rose to it. People finished with a new-found respect for her.” Another added: “She did an absolutely brilliant job. She kept everybody guessing.”

The breakthrough came only after a heated debate and a drama in Downing Street 23 hours earlier which had left the Brexiteers fearful that they were being “shafted”. Davis travelled more than 6,400 miles last week meeting EU counterparts but his most important mission came on his return to the UK at 8pm on Wednesday. On reading Robbins’s proposed draft plan when he finally reached No 10, the Brexit secretary launched into action.

“The paper had some language which was going to lead to some people in the room exploding,” one official said. Davis went in and out of No 10 for nearly three hours to meet May and ensure the so-called divergence mechanism would be acceptable to Johnson and Michael Gove, the environment secretary.

“DD wrestled it into shape,” a cabinet source said. “It was a script written by Olly Robbins, produced by David Davis and directed by Theresa May — with Boris, as the first viewer, delighted.”

Davis’s discovery that the May-Robbins plan needed surgery was not the only thing unnerving the Brexiteers as the meeting began. A document on the transition period, published on Wednesday, that did not set a time limit for Britain’s full departure from the EU, had caused angst.

Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, led the charge because his ability to negotiate free trade deals is curtailed during the transition period. “Liam is concerned that he’s going to be able to get on and do his job,” one cabinet minister said.

The tensions erupted at Chequers when Greg Clark, the business secretary, gave a presentation on the consequences of divergence for the car industry. Johnson interrupted to say divergence was essential to ensure innovation. He cited the way EU rules had stopped him changing the design of lorries in London while he was mayor to make conditions safer for cyclists, along with a ban on the most powerful vacuum cleaners designed by the British firm Dyson.

“Boris’s big thing is that he wants to be able to innovate,” a colleague said. “He must be seeing James Dyson all the time. He quotes him the whole time.”

Clark, usually one of the most self-effacing ministers, questioned whether the British market was big enough for manufacturers to design products for it alone. “What is the trade-off here?” he asked. “There are 425,000 jobs at risk in the automotive sector.” Another minister said: “Greg had his Weetabix. He really roared. Boris was quite taken aback.”

May stopped the fight, telling Johnson that he would get to speak first in the next session, where the deal was finally unveiled. “She was like a very efficient school teacher,” one source said. “She was quite tough with Boris.”

The exchange unnerved Johnson who, allies claimed, had been contemplating resignation if the meeting had not gone as he wanted. “It was a very long and torrid day,” one friend said. “For much of it he thought it was going in totally the wrong direction. He thought there might be a long walk home.” After the dinner that concluded the day, Johnson’s allies proclaimed that “divergence has won”.

The day was orchestrated by May and her aides to create an atmosphere of solidarity and manoeuvre ministers into compromise. “There was a slight element of Cluedo about it,” one participant said.

Discussions started in the grand hall of and moved to three other rooms. Ministers’ mobile phones were confiscated, forcing colleagues who had spent months briefing against each other to talk.

“During the Oslo peace process the Norwegians got the Arabs and Israelis into an agreeable location in the Norwegian countryside and plied them with smoked salmon,” one minister noted.

“In the same way, if you get a group of Tories in a country house and give them cups of tea and shortbread biscuits, naturally it tends towards harmony.”

Johnson and Clark had a friendly conversation in a tea break after their clash. Those present hope the spirit of unity will hold. “We are bonded in a way we weren’t,” one said. “There was a magic.”

Such was the mood that even the lugubrious Hammond found time to laugh at himself. When David Lidington, May’s deputy, made a downbeat technical point he said: “I don’t want to sound too Eeyore.” The chancellor piped up: “No, that’s my job.”

Ministers might have finally made a deal among themselves but can they sell it to their EU partners? The next day Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, dismissed the UK’s plan as “based on pure illusion”, complaining that it amounted to “cherry picking” and an attempt by Britain to have its cake while eating it.

Tusk will meet May for talks in No 10 on Thursday. She will also hold a special cabinet meeting that day. On Friday she will make a speech outlining the UK’s position, with Newcastle the most likely location. Despite her success at Chequers, much was left unresolved. “The main question, ‘What can we diverge on and when?’ hasn’t been properly discussed or explored,” a cabinet source said.

May will have problems keeping her top team in line. Hammond made clear he thinks the proposals are “unnegotiable” and will never be accepted by the EU, something that puts him on a collision course with Johnson, who has told friends that the plan has to be Britain’s bottom line, not an opening bid.

A source familiar with Johnson’s thinking said: “Boris makes no distinction between the offer and our bottom line. This is what we must get.”

May was left in little doubt about the weakness of her position in parliament by a political discussion at the start of the summit. The Conservative chief whip, Julian Smith, “laid it on the line” and warned of the “real, real danger” of Tory rebels uniting with Labour to keep Britain in the customs union.

Davis discussed the threat of hardline Brexiteers under Jacob Rees-Mogg, who have privately threatened to force a leadership election if May drops her opposition to a customs union.

As another minister put it: “The election of Jacob [to lead the European Research Group] is a sign that they are militarising and have tanks on our lawn.”

Karen Bradley, the Northern Ireland secretary, told May she could not be sure her DUP allies would “turn up” for key votes. And there was a discussion of the prospect of Sinn Fein’s seven MPs taking their seats if the UK does not ensure that there is no hard border between Northern Ireland and the republic.

Some Eurosceptics outside the cabinet put little faith in May and her team holding their fragile truce together in the face of intransigence in Brussels.

“Cabinet continues to live in a parallel universe,” one said. “The DD-May plan is doomed. Barnier will smash DD over the head and No 10 will fold as always.”

Even cabinet ministers will not believe that the deal is secure until they see May’s speech. “It’s very important that the rats don’t get at this now,” one said. “We don’t want it unscrambled.” But in a process that has been as frustrating as it has been long, the week represents progress.

“In a not particularly hotly contested field it was a good day for the government,” the minister said.

Another described it as May’s best day since the general election: “She’s done a good job, this is a success for her. There may be tougher sessions to come but she is keeping one hell of a plate spinning. That is winning hearts and minds.”

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freenewstoday · 4 years ago

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New Post has been published on https://freenews.today/2020/12/29/brexit-live-eu-nations-deadline-to-agree-to-uk-deal-today-boris-faces-vote-tomorrow/

Brexit LIVE: EU nations deadline to agree to UK deal TODAY– Boris faces vote tomorrow

EU ambassadors gave provisional consent to the deal on Monday in order to quickly implement the agreement before the end of the transition period on January 1. Although provisional approval was given, Brussels has set national parliaments a deadline of 3pm today in order to approve the deal. The EU is still waiting on national parliaments in states such as Sweden, who still need to give their consent.

While the EU is waiting for approval from member states, MPs will return to the House of Commons on Wednesday to vote on the deal.

The SNP has already declared it will vote against the deal, while Labour faces a civil war over its own position.

Multiple high-level MPs within the party have written to Sir Keir Starmer to demand him to vote against the deal.

Tory Brexiteers within the European Research Group will deliver their verdict on the deal today.

Since the release of the document, senior members including Sir Bill Cash, MP for Stone, have been analysing the document.

Although it is expected that Mr Johnson’s deal will be approved, some have criticised the agreement for betraying UK fishermen.

Cabinet Office Minister, Michael Gove has also stated businesses will face a slight period of uncertainty from the beginning of next year.

He said on Monday: “Businesses will need to make sure that they’re ready for new customs procedures and we as individuals will need to make sure that our passports are up to date because they need to have at least six months before expiry on them in order to be able to travel abroad.

“I’m sure there will be bumpy moments but we are there in order to try to do everything we can to smooth the path.”

FOLLOW BELOW FOR LIVE UPDATES:

7.44am update: Northern Ireland’s place within the UK will not be jeopardised

DUP MP, Sammy Wilson, has rejected claims Northern Ireland will be left behind post-Brexit.

Although the DUP will vote against the deal, Mr Wilson said the economy will grow due to the UK’s departure from the EU.

He said: “I can guarantee that once people in Northern Ireland – unionists and nationalists, Catholics and Protestants – look at the benefits of being part of the fifth biggest economy in the world, and an economy that I believe will grow as a result of Brexit and strengthen as a result of Brexit.

“I believe that they will understand that their future lies with Britain.”

7.21am update: EU sets final deadline for Brexit deal vote – MPs return tomorrow

The EU has issued its final deadline to approve a deal today as it waits for national parliaments to approve the text.

EU ambassadors gave provisional approval on Monday meaning national parliaments must provide written consent of the agreement by 3pm today.

MEPs will ratify the deal later in the year after the Commission presented the deal as an EU-only agreement.

MPs will return to the House of Commons on Wednesday in order to ratify Boris Johnson’s deal.

Despite some criticism of the agreement, it is thought the deal will pass.

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franchisemartin · 4 years ago

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Fit Body Boot Camp Biggest Fitness Franchises

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abetheone · 5 years ago

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DUP lawmaker thinks its still possible to get a Brexit deal DUBLIN (Reuters) - A senior lawmaker in the Northern Ireland party whose 10 members of parliament support Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government on Tuesday said it was still possible to get a Brexit deal approved by the British parliament.

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kookaburrabugle · 10 months ago

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SENIOR DUP MEMBER WEARING WIRE AT KEY PARTY MEETING MUST HAVE BEEN TRAINED INFORMER, SAY LOYALISTS

MI5 HEADQUARTERS, HOLYWOOD, BELFAST HARDENED LOYALISTS SAY they are convinced that whoever wore a wire and leaked discussions at the crucial DUP party meeting that decided on re-entry to Stormont, earlier this week, was a long-time well-schooled informer with the skill and cold nerve to walk and talk among trusting friends and then betray their every word. “Has to have been,” says Willie…

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seachranaidhe · 6 years ago

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Arlene Foster and senior DUP members meet Theresa May at Chequers

Arlene Foster met Theresa May on Thursday

Senior DUP members have been in Chequers for a private meeting with the prime minister.

The party’s leadership Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds, and chief whip Jeffrey Donaldson met Theresa May on Thursday afternoon.

The DUP said the meeting was a useful opportunity to remind Mrs May that they want the Stormont Assembly restored.

They added that they…

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#Arlene Foster and senior DUP members meet Theresa May at Chequers #Arlene Foster met Theresa May on Thursday #DUP (Democratic Unionist Party)#Nigel Dodds #North of Ireland Assembly #Sir Jeffrey Donaldson #Stormont stalemate #The pact was signed in June 2017 #Theresa May

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its-veso · 6 years ago

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3 scenarios for Brexit and GBP/USD after Brextension

GBP/USD had another week of high volatility in which Brexit was delayed.

Uncertainty remains exceptionally high, and Parliament has the key.

The technical picture is bullish for the pair and experts are mixed on the next moves.

This was the week: Brextension

Brexit has been delayed by two weeks to 12.4. For now. This is the bottom line after a turbulent week in UK politics and GBP/USD.

It began with Speaker of the House of Common John Bercow refusing to allow a repeat vote of the exact same Brexit bill, throwing a spanner in the government’s plans. Things got worse when PM Theresa May asked for a short extension of Article 50 to June 30th, instead of a longer one. She wanted to use the time to try and pass Brexit once again.

But the European Union had other plans.

They accepted an extension to May 22nd, just before the European Parliament elections on May 26th, but only on the condition that Parliament approves the deal by April 12th. If not, it is up to the UK to decide what to do on ahead of the new Brexit deadline.

The EU basically passed the baton from the government to the Parliament after May had reportedly refused to say what she will do if the plan fails.

Brexit remains left, right, and center, but other events are also worth mentioning.

Apart from Brexit, UK data was quite upbeat. The Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.9%, excellent news[1]. Wages continue rising at a robust rate of 3.4%, inflation accelerated to 1.9%, and retail sales surprised to the upside with 0.4% in February.

All this data would have led the Bank of England[2] to raise rates, but Brexit uncertainty looms. The BOE[3] left its policy unchanged expressing concern about uncertainty but still leaning towards hiking, assuming things are resolved.

UK data had little impact on the pound, but the US Federal Reserve did move the dial, at least temporarily. The Fed took another dovish twist, signaling no interest rate increases in 2019 and an early end to shrinking the balance sheet, already in September. Also, Fed Chair Jerome Powell[4] said that current data do not suggest a move in rates[5] to one way or the other. In other words, a rate cut is on the cards as well.

What’s next with Brexit? Three scenarios

So, Brexit is in the hands of Parliamentarians.

1) Miracle approval

The chances of passing the Brexit bill are 5% according to French President Emmanuel Macron, and he has a point. Negotiations between the Northern Irish DUP and the government have not yielded any result. A group of hardline Brexiteers prefers a no-deal. The opposition maintains its line to reject the deal especially after May blamed them for not approving the accord.

In this scenario, GBP/USD some room to the upside, perhaps 1.3500.

2) No-deal Brexit on April 12th

According to quite a few political analysts, the No. 1 priority of the May is to conserve the Conservative Party. As the hard Brexitees have a stricter stance, she will go with them and against other considerations such as the economy.

This scenario might not come to fruition in the upcoming week, but we may learn more about May’s intentions.

In this scenario, GBP/USD has room to fall to 1.2000, but probably not now.

3) Indicative votes, leading to new leadership

Parliament may finally take matters into its own hands and hold symbolic votes on what kind of solution it wants. A softer Brexit or the Norwegian model of open borders and full participation in the EU’s single market and customs union may follow. Other options are a second referendum or new elections.

All of these options mean delaying Brexit for an extended period, perhaps until the end of the year. The PM has hinted that she may step down if Brexit is postponed beyond June 30th. There are growing signs of dissatisfaction within her party and her government and a sense she lost control.

If Parliament points the way to a different path, she could step down quite quickly. While markets do not like uncertainty, they absolutely hate Brexit.

GBP/USD could jump all the way to 1.4000 even in the uncertainty of new elections.

Like the previous scenario, it may not come into fruition this week, but approving “indicative votes” could indicate the path higher for the pound.

Other UK events: GDP

The UK calendar is quite light with only GDP standing out. The final read of Q4 2018 GDP is expected to confirm the slow growth rate of 0.2% QoQ and 1.3% YoY. Revisions are not standard for the quarterly number, but the yearly figures are often modified. Consumer confidence may also be of interest. It may drop due to Brexit.

Here are the events lined up in the UK on the forex calendar[6]:

US events: Busy week, GDP stands out

Contrary to the UK, the American calendar is busier. Fed[7] members are scheduled to speak throughout the week, beginning with Harker on Monday. They will likely repeat the same message.

Housing data stand out on Tuesday with expected rises in Building Permits and Housing Starts. The House Price Indexes are also of interest. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence gauge on Tuesday will likely remain robust.

The final read of US GDP is the primary event of the week. After the initial read surprised with 2.6% annualized, better than projected. The final number will likely show a downgrade after a few disappointing figures. The composition of growth is also of importance.

The Core PCE Price Index is due on Friday. This is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Other indicators[8] are of interest as well on Friday, with New Home Sales closing the week.

Apart from the busy week of data, trade talks continue with senior US officials traveling to Beijing. The past week saw contradicting headlines. On the one hand, China has reportedly backtracked on previous commitments, and President Donald Trump wants tariffs to remain for a long time. On the other hand, he seems optimistic about clinching an accord.

Here are the scheduled events in the US:

GBP/USD Technical Analysis – Still somewhat bullish

GBP/USD is trading above the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages, despite a temporary dip below the 50 one. The SMA 50 recently crossed the 200 SMA, in the bullish “Golden Cross” pattern. Momentum remains positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral.

Cable also continues trading in the broad uptrend channel. All in all, bulls remain in control.

Resistance awaits 1.3190 which capped GBP/USD[9] in early March and then served as support. 1.3220 was a high point in mid-January. 1.3305 was a high point in mid-March, and it is followed closely by 1.3350 that held it back in late February. The cycle high of 1.3388 is next.

Support awaits at 1.3110 which was a swing low in early March and held the pair down in mid-February. 1.3000 is not only a round number but also a swing low seen recently. 1.2960 was a double bottom, being touched in both March and February. 1.2895 separated ranges in mid-February.

It is important to remember that the nature of Brexit and the higher volatility mean that support and resistance lines may be shattered easily.

GBP/USD Sentiment

Sterling bulls have reasons to be optimistic that a pro-Remain Parliament will take control and force a long delay of Brexit. However, the chaotic nature of deliberations in Parliament and the various complications and surprises mean that nothing is guaranteed.

The FXStreet Poll[10] shows a mixed picture for the next moves in Sterling. Brexit[11] uncertainty takes its toll and makes forecasting hard. The short term bias is bearish, then turns neutral in the medium term and becomes bullish long term. The targets have not moved too much.

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs[12]

References

^ news (www.fxstreet.com)

^ Bank of England (www.fxstreet.com)

^ BOE (www.fxstreet.com)

^ Jerome Powell (www.fxstreet.com)

^ rates (www.fxstreet.com)

^ forex calendar (www.fxstreet.com)

^ Fed (www.fxstreet.com)

^ indicators (www.fxstreet.com)

^ GBP/USD (www.fxstreet.com)

^ FXStreet Poll (www.fxstreet.com)

^ Brexit (www.fxstreet.com)

^ Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs (www.forexcrunch.com)

from Forex Crunch http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ForexCrunch/~3/Uf8SDgAXUSY/

#Forex News #Forex Crunch

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votenet-blog · 6 years ago

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DUP backing will not secure May's Brexit deal, says Jim Wells

DUP backing will not secure May’s Brexit deal, says Jim Wells

Author: Peter Walker / Source: the Guardian

A senior Democratic Unionist has predicted that even if the party backs Theresa May’s Brexit plan in a third Commons vote it will be defeated because of the number of Conservative rebels.

Amid a final scramble by the prime ministerto bring her informal coalition partners onboard before a probable vote this week, Jim Wells, a DUP member of the Northern…

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#Ben Wallace #Boris Johnson #Deal #Democratic Unionist Party #Esther McVey #European Union #Jacob Rees-Mogg #May #Northern Ireland #Theresa May

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toldnews-blog · 6 years ago

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New Post has been published on https://toldnews.com/business/brexit-short-extension-needed-for-pms-deal/

Brexit: 'Short extension' needed for PM's deal

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There will have to be a “short extension” to the UK’s departure date from the EU, even if MPs back Theresa May’s deal, the chancellor says.

Philip Hammond told the BBC’s Andrew Marr it was now “physically impossible” for the UK to leave on 29 March and a delay was needed to pass legislation.

He also warned the deal might not go to a third Commons vote without more support from the DUP and other MPs.

Theresa May has asked MPs to make an “honourable compromise” on her deal.

Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, she said failure to support it would mean “we will not leave the EU for many months, if ever”.

Meanwhile, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has written to MPs across the Commons inviting them for talks to find a cross-party compromise.

He also told Sky’s Sophie Ridge that while he “has to see the wording of it”, Labour MPs would be told to vote in favour of an amendment calling for another referendum next week.

And he said he could propose another vote of no confidence in the government if the PM’s deal was voted down for a third time.

Earlier this week MPs rejected Theresa May’s deal again – this time by 149 votes – and then backed plans to rule out leaving the EU without a deal.

They also voted in favour of an extension to the process – either until 30 June if Mrs May’s deal is supported before 20 March, or a longer one that could include taking part in European elections if MPs reject her plan for a third time.

But legally the UK is still due to leave the EU on 29 March.

All 27 EU member states would have to agree to an extension, and the country’s leaders are expected to discuss it at a summit later this week.

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Mr Hammond told Andrew Marr: “If the prime minister’s deal is able to muster a majority this week and get through, then we will need a short extension.

“It is physically impossible to leave on 29 March, but we would be able to leave very soon.

“But if we are unable to do that – if we are unable to bring a majority together to support what in my view is a very good deal for Britain – then we will have to look at a longer extension and we are in unchartered territory.”

Asked if the third so-called “meaningful vote” on the deal would definitely be returning to the Commons this week to seek such support, the chancellor said: “The answer to that is no – not definitely.

“We will only bring the deal back if we are confident that enough of our colleagues and the DUP are prepared to support it so we can get it through Parliament.

“We are not just going to keep presenting it if we haven’t moved the dial.”

‘Work in progress’

Mr Hammond said they did not have the numbers “yet” but added: “It is a work in progress. Obviously we are talking to a lot of colleagues about what the way forward is.

“But clearly if we don’t get this deal through, we are almost certainly going to have to fight a European parliamentary election [and] we are almost certainly going to have to have a longer extension.”

Mr Hammond also refused to rule out a financial settlement for Northern Ireland if the DUP backed Mrs May’s deal.

The party, which has 10 MPs in the Commons, received £1bn as part of a confidence and supply agreement with the Tories after the last election – giving the government a working majority.

The DUP’s Westminster leader, Nigel Dodds, met with senior cabinet members on Friday – including Mr Hammond – to discuss what it would take to get them onboard with the PM’s plan, but they said afterwards there were “still issues to be addressed”.

A group of 15 Tory MPs from Leave-backing constituencies, including former Brexit Secretary David Davis, have also urged colleagues to back the deal.

In a letter, the group claimed there were people “who will stop at nothing to prevent Britain leaving the EU”, adding they would vote for the deal to ensure Brexit went ahead.

“We urge colleagues who, like us, wish to deliver Brexit, to vote for the deal and ensure we leave the EU as soon as possible,” they said.

“We need to leave now, take the risk of ‘no Brexit’ off the table, and then continue to fight for the best future relationship as an independent nation.”

Former Cabinet minister Esther McVey, who resigned over the Brexit agreement, told Sky’s Sophie Ridge programme that she would “hold my nose” and vote for the deal after rejecting it twice herself, as it was now a choice between “this deal or no Brexit”.

But she later called on Mrs May to make a “dignified departure” from the top job.

Speaking to BBC Radio 5 Live’s Pienaar’s Politics, Ms McVey said the next Tory leader “would have to be a Brexiteer and the cabinet would have to be ‘Brexiteer-minded'”.

And she said that, if enough people asked her to stand, she would put herself forward in the next leadership contest.

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionEarlier this week, Esther McVey said: “People will have to vote for deal if they want Brexit”.

Mr Corbyn has offered talks with opposition leaders and backbench MPs in an effort to find a Brexit compromise which could replace Mrs May’s plan.

The Labour leader has invited Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable, DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds, SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford, Plaid’s Liz Saville Roberts and Green MP Caroline Lucas.

In his letter, he called for urgent meetings to find a “solution that ends the needless uncertainty and worry” caused by Mrs May’s “failed” Brexit negotiations.

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Media captionPolitical Correspondent Jonathan Blake explains what’s next for Brexit

Meanwhile, Tory MP Nick Boles has pledged to stay in the Conservative Party, despite quitting his local association over an ongoing row about Brexit.

He told the BBC’s Andrew Marr that he would be meeting with the chief whip on Monday to find a way forward, but that he was “not going to be bossed around” by local members.

Mr Boles, who campaigned to stop a no-deal Brexit, said: “I will be my own kind of Conservative. Not an ideological reactionary Conservative.”

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chloe-jayde · 6 years ago

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May could win backing of Northern Irish kingmakers in third Brexit vote: report

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May could win backing of Northern Irish kingmakers in third Brexit vote: report

By Andrew MacAskill

LONDON (Reuters) – Prime Minister Theresa May’s hopes of getting a Brexit divorce deal through parliament were given a boost on Saturday after a report that the Northern Irish party propping up her government might move toward backing her deal.

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which has 10 lawmakers in parliament, is close to changing its position for the first time after receiving a promise that the government would put into law a requirement that there be no divergence between Northern Ireland and Britain, the Spectator magazine said.

A cabinet minister involved in the talks with the DUP told the Spectator the chances of the party backing the government’s deal were around 60 percent.

After two-and-a-half years of tortuous divorce negotiations with the EU, the final outcome is still uncertain with options including a long delay, exiting with May’s deal, a disorderly exit without a deal or even another referendum.

To get her deal passed through parliament, May must win over dozens of Brexit-supporting rebels in her own Conservative Party and the DUP lawmakers. She is expected bring back the deal for a third vote after two historic defeats.

The DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds said the party had good talks with British ministers, including the finance minister, on Friday to see what additional assurances would be needed for them to save her deal.

But the opposition Labour Party’s finance policy chief John McDonnell said on Saturday he was concerned that Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond’s presence during the talks means the government might have offered the DUP money to back the deal.

“It will rightfully be seen by the British electorate as corrupt politics and will demean our political system in the eyes of the world,” McDonnell said.

As talks with the government continued, the DUP said there were still issues to addressed and denied that they were seeking money from the government.

The changes would address the DUP’s concerns over the backstop – an insurance policy aimed at avoiding controls on the sensitive border between the British province of Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland. The backstop is the most contentious part of the divorce deal the government has agreed with the EU.

THIRD TIME LUCKY?

After three dramatic days in parliament this week, lawmakers voted on Thursday to have the government ask the EU for a delay beyond the date Britain is scheduled to leave – March 29.

May says she wants to minimize any delay in leaving the EU to just three months, but to achieve that she will need parliament to back her deal at the third time of asking early next week, possibly Tuesday.

Her deal, an attempt to keep close relations with the EU while leaving the bloc’s formal structures, was defeated by 230 votes in parliament on Jan. 15 and by 149 votes on March 12.

She needs 75 lawmakers to change their vote. If she can swing the DUP behind her, along with several dozen hardliners in her own party, she will be getting close to the numbers she needs.

Around 20 Conservatives lawmakers are unlikely ever to be satisfied but she may draw in a small number of opposition Labour lawmakers.

In another sign of how Brexit continues to reshape loyalties in Britain’s politics, a senior Conservative lawmaker quit his local party on Saturday due to disagreements over Brexit.

Nick Boles, 53, has been critical of the government’s threat to leave the EU without a deal and has faced calls from his local party to be ousted as its candidate for the next general election.

Boles said he could remain aligned with the Conservatives in parliament if it is offered “on acceptable terms.”

At the other end of the political spectrum, Nigel Farage, the politician who probably did more than anyone else to force Britain’s referendum on membership of the European Union, joined protesters at the start of a 270-mile march over what they call a betrayal of the Brexit vote.

In the pouring rain in Sunderland, northeast England, which was the first place in Britain to declare a vote to leave the EU, Farage, wearing a flat cap and carrying an umbrella, said Brexit was now in danger of being scuttled by the establishment.

“We are here in the very week when parliament is doing its utmost to betray the Brexit result,” Farage said. “It is beginning to look like it doesn’t want to leave and the message from this march is if you think you can walk all over us we will march straight back to you.”

The march, which began with about 100 people, is due to end at parliament on March 29, the day the United Kingdom was supposed to leave the EU.

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