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dippedanddripped · 5 years

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Ralph Lauren once said, "I don't design clothes, I design dreams," according to GQ magazine. But at retail, clothes have become the stuff of nightmares.

"According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, from 1977 U.S. Households spent 6.2% on apparel and in 2017 that declined to 3.1% spending on apparel in U.S. Households," Shawn Grain Carter, professor of fashion business management at the Fashion Institute of Technology, told Retail Dive in an email. "That is a 50% drop over four decades."

And it's taking a toll.

Oct 23 - Register Now So far this year, 10 of the 16 major retail bankruptcies were filed by companies that mostly or exclusively sell apparel and/or footwear: Forever 21, Avenue, A'gaci, Barneys New York, Charming Charlie, Diesel USA, Payless ShoeSource, FullBeauty Brands, Charlotte Russe and Gymboree. Another, Shopko, was a discount department store with an assortment that included clothes.

Things are not likely to end there. In its latest analysis of CreditRiskMonitor data, Retail Dive found 28 retailers that could go bankrupt in the next year — and half sell apparel. In the worse-off list, which includes businesses with a 9.99% to 50% chance of filing for bankruptcy (a FRISK score of 1) — three are specialty apparel retailers: Christopher & Banks, Destination Maternity and J. Crew. A fourth, Ascena, is a conglomerate running five apparel brands after recently dumping two. It's reportedly contemplating also dropping its plus-size brands. Executives there recently assured analysts that bankruptcy is not a consideration, however.

In addition to those retailers, department stores J.C. Penney and Neiman Marcus also make the list. A seventh, Bluestem, is also a conglomerate with a portfolio of e-commerce brands somewhat less dominated by apparel.

Seven more apparel retailers have a 4% to 9.99% chance of filing for bankruptcy (a FRISK score of 2). They include RTW Retailwinds (a portfolio of brands formerly known as New York & Co), Tailored Brands (which runs Men's Wearhouse and JoS. A. Bank), Express, Francesca's and J. Jill, plus department stores Hudson's Bay Co. and Stein Mart.

"It is unsurprising that apparel stores are one of the most distressed parts of retail. This sector is saturated with supply and is arguably over-stored."

Neil Saunders

Managing Director, GlobalData Retail

The situation is at once stark and logical, considering the state of the market. Globally, the top dozen apparel retailers, on average, saw earnings downgrades of nearly 40% since 2016, according to a note from Morgan Stanley Friday, where analysts said the "online channel shift is clearly unhelpful, but it doesn't fully explain the malaise." For two decades, falling apparel prices were offset by growing volumes, but those "now seem to have peaked and prices are likely to keep falling, so clothing markets would appear to be going into structural decline."

Apparel retail, which has to keep up with the fickleness of consumer taste, has long been a tough business, according to GlobalData Retail Managing Director Neil Saunders. But that's just the beginning.

"It is unsurprising that apparel stores are one of the most distressed parts of retail. This sector is saturated with supply and is arguably over-stored," he told Retail Dive in an email. "Online has been unhelpful too as it has eroded margins somewhat and has also contributed to the issues of over-supply. On the periphery there are a number of emerging trends which are adding pressure, including the rise of rental and resale – both of which are mostly focused on clothing. Put all of this together and it's a recipe for a difficult sector."

In other words: Apparel retail is under siege on multiple fronts.

New consumer priorities Financial roadbumps stymying consumers outside of top-tier incomes are forcing some to prioritize, and that's pushing apparel far down on many lists. Average spending on women and girls' apparel has especially declined for lower-income earners, with the "only bright spot" in footwear, where share in apparel expenditure has risen across income levels, according to a Deloitte report last year. More recently, rising consumer debt, including record levels of student loans shouldered by younger consumers, is chipping away at discretionary spending.

But apparel spending declines are broad-based as priorities shift, according to Carter and others. "Apparel has lost market share to higher spending on experiences," she said, including a diverse set of activities like fitness, self-care like spas and manicures, sports (both participation and entertainment), other entertainment including streaming services of all types, restaurants, travel and electronics.

Mark Cohen

Retail Studies Professor, Columbia University Business School

Mark Cohen, Columbia University Business School retail studies professor, likewise believes that "consumer electronics and the services that go with them with regard to ever more consuming technology continues to eat up the consumer's available disposable income," but notes other forces at play.

"The Boomers characteristically consume less apparel as they get older and their offspring are burdened with crushing student loan debt, generally rising prices in the consumer space and a very glaring lack of new and interesting apparel and accessory products to draw their attention," he told Retail Dive in an email. "Some appear to be gob smacked with the opportunity to 'rent' things rather than buy them — though this trend may very well turn out to be short lived just like the ubiquitous Gilt Flash Sale."

For younger shoppers, as they choose which apparel brands do get their attention, sustainability and other cultural issues are often at the forefront, according to Carter. Forever 21, for one, in contrast to at least nominal efforts by rival H&M, ignored that, to its peril, Carter said.

No fashion heroes The "glaring lack" of newness noticed by Cohen could be a reflection of a new fashion reality — that consumers themselves are dictating what to wear, gleaning clues from social media and seeking advice from influencers there who include their own friends.

"The tastemakers of fashion used to be the designer, fashion editor, fashion buyer and celebrity," said FIT's Carter. "Today, however, social media influencers, peers, and stylists have replaced the role of fashion sages for consumers to purchase apparel, footwear, and accessories. Instagram, YouTube and other social media platforms dictate how one should dress for Gen Z and Millennials. Besides, they don't shop in a mall or socialize in retail stores as did previous generations of youth."

"To be a merchant right now in apparel, that's a hard job. To work at The RealReal is so much easier than turning around J. Crew."

Lee Peterson

EVP, Thought Leadership & Marketing, WD Partners

That grassroots approach to fashion is making it difficult for merchandisers, at least those building seasonal lines from scratch, according to Lee Peterson, executive vice president of thought leadership and marketing at WD Partners. Resale businesses like ThredUp and The RealReal are better positioned than traditional retailers because of the way consumers mix and match styles, brands and price points, he said in an interview.

"You can't merchandise the way the customers buy now. I feel sorry for anyone working for Ascena and those guys putting together a line," he said. "To be a merchant right now in apparel, that's a hard job. To work at The RealReal is so much easier than turning around J. Crew. And to be a buyer there is easier, too, because you're treasure hunting for all your treasure-hunting customers."

Another reality pressuring sales is that nobody needs as many clothes as they once did, say Carter and Peterson. Peterson noted that, even as an executive, he was wearing a flannel shirt and Vans on a Thursday.

"No 'career wear' or business wardrobe is necessary anymore since the beginning of the 1990s era of 'Friday Casual' morphed into everyday 'Business Casual' at the majority of companies, schools, service industries and banks in America," Carter said. "One need only trace the rise of wearing sneakers to one's office, college, opera house, theater, church or temple to see that consumers see no value in 'dressing for work' vs. dressing for leisure. Even Goldman Sachs has suspended the Tie and Suit rule once and for all!"

Too much supply So, consumers can't spend as much on apparel as they once did, would rather buy other things and don't need as many clothes. Yet there's a glut of apparel for sale, and, increasingly, for rent.

"Thirty years ago the apparel and related accessories business were booming. The department stores couldn't wait to jettison lesser margin businesses like housewares, home and electronics so as to devote more selling space to soft lines," Columbia's Cohen said. "But apparel and accessories like most individual consumer segments are cyclical in the way they perform. What was the ever rising tide is no longer."

It doesn't help that the traditional mall, which functioned well for suburban Americans for decades, is now a fairly inconvenient way to shop in an era when most households need two wage-earners, both pressed for time, and when so many things can be bought online. That's leading retailers as diverse as Gap and GNC to leave those locations to set up shop in strip malls and invest in e-commerce instead.

"Now the remaining department stores have too many physical stores in the face of the explosion of commerce and too much square footage devoted to off-trend apparel and accessories," said Cohen, who has decades of experience at retailers like Sears and Target. "Some of us balked at this short-sighted thinking of the past but we lost the argument and now the chickens have come home to roost. There obviously was a ridiculous over-investment in apparel and accessory specialty retail, largely based upon an increasingly large number of now superfluous malls."

Macy's is exhibit one, as a retailer that has scrambled in recent years to unwind its massive brick-and-mortar expansion of more than a decade ago, but it's not just a department store problem. Forever 21 also over-built its fleet, too often in sub-standard centers, and now plans to close 178 stores in the U.S. alone.

A giant retreat While it's easy to see how e-commerce undercuts store traffic and sales, the apparel over-supply extends online. In fact, Walmart's recent loss of appetite for running its newly acquired pure-players could have something to do with the fact that they are apparel businesses. In a stunning retreat, the retail giant sold its ModCloth apparel brand and is reportedly shrinking the Bonobos menswear operation, not long after buying them.

"Against this backdrop, Walmart will be cautious about getting too deeply into apparel. At heart, Walmart isn't a fashion focused player; their primary business model is a volume play based on everyday products sold at low prices," Saunders said. "As such, the company has determined that ModCloth, and possibly Bonobos, are not a good long-term fit. This is especially so given the challenge of bringing these divisions into strong profitable territory."

Walmart in recent years grabbed those businesses, along with outdoor apparel retailer Moosejaw, to glean knowledge and is likely now ready to graduate, according to Saunders.

"Having extracted what they needed, Walmart is changing tack and is focusing more on their core e-commerce business via Walmart.com," he said. "Walmart sees its future in fashion as improving its own offer via stores and online, doing selective things in specialist areas like plus size, and partnering with other brands via its marketplace. That makes sense as it allows Walmart.com to widen its fashion appeal without Walmart taking on too much of the risk. It's a nimbler and likely more profitable model."

More nimble and more profitable: suitable, if difficult, goals for the entire apparel industry at the moment.

#The 'retail apocalypse' is an apparel apocalypse #retailers #fashion blog

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majornelson · 6 years

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gamescom 2018 Xbox One Bundles and Accessories Guide

You may have heard – at this year’s gamescom in Cologne, we announced eight new Xbox One bundles. In case that wasn’t enough, we also revealed three new Xbox Wireless Controller options, too. Whether you’re after the stunning Xbox One X Gold Rush Special Edition Battlefield V bundle, a new Desert Camo personalized Xbox Wireless Controller from Xbox Design Lab or Forza or Tomb Raider bundles, we’ve got something for everyone to help you choose your favorite way to play with your friends on Xbox.

Here’s a detailed breakdown of all the Xbox One bundles and accessories announced on the gamescom Inside Xbox episode:

Xbox Wireless Controller – PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds Limited Edition

Survive the ultimate life and death fight with the Xbox Wireless Controller – PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds Limited Edition, featuring a distressed black digital camo pattern and unique design elements inspired by the game. Be the last one standing with the new and exclusive trigger grip to help you stay on target in the final circle. The controller is bundled with exclusive cosmetic DLC inspired by the controller design.

Pre-order today at Microsoft Store and select retailers worldwide. Limited supplies only, shipping on October 30, 2018 for $69.99.

Xbox Design Lab Camo and Shadow Controllers

Last year at gamescom, we started shipping Xbox Design Lab controllers to more than 20 European countries. This year you can personalize your very own Xbox Wireless Controller in even more, unique ways with new Xbox Design Lab Camo and Shadow options, including five new camo colors and five new shadow colors. In addition, a Sterling Silver Shadow design is available to order for a limited time, now through September 30. Start from scratch or customize an existing design online, choosing from a wide range of new designs and colors for your Xbox Design Lab controller. There are over a billion ways to design yours at xbox.com/xboxdesignlab.

Available now at Xbox Design Lab starting at $69.99.

Shadow of the Tomb Raider Xbox One Bundles

Pre-order the 1TB Xbox One S ($299.99) or 1TB Xbox One X ($499.99) Shadow of the Tomb Raider Bundle and become Lara Croft in a race to save the world from the Maya apocalypse. Master the deadly jungle, overcome terrifying tombs, and persevere through Lara Croft’s darkest hour. On Xbox One X, experience incredible visuals with support for native 4K resolution and HDR.

Each bundle comes packed with an Xbox Wireless Controller, a digital download of Shadow of the Tomb Raider, 1 month of Xbox Game Pass and 14 days of Xbox Live Gold.

Pre-order now; arrives in stores starting September 14, 2018. Check your local retailer for availability.

Forza Horizon 4 Xbox One Bundles

Pre-Order the 1TB Xbox One S ($299.99) or 1TB Xbox One X ($499.99) Forza Horizon 4 Bundle and experience a shared open world where dynamic seasons change everything. Explore Britain, collect 450 cars or choose to join team multiplayer just for fun to take on the best in the world. The Xbox One X Forza Horizon 4 Bundle brings support for native 4K resolution and HDR, and comes with a downloadable copy of Forza Motorsport 7, too.

Each bundle comes packed with an Xbox Wireless Controller, a digital download of Forza Horizon 4, 1 month of Xbox Game Pass and 14 days of Xbox Live Gold.

Pre-order now; arrives in stores starting October 2, 2018.

Xbox One X Gold Rush Special Edition Battlefield V Bundle

Pre-order the Xbox One X Gold Rush Special Edition Battlefield V Bundle and enter mankind’s greatest conflict with Battlefield V as the series goes back to its roots in a never-before-seen portrayal of World War 2. Join the ranks with full-game downloads of the Battlefield V Deluxe Edition and the classic Battlefield 1943. Enhanced for Xbox One X and supporting 4K resolution and HDR graphics, the Battlefield V Deluxe Edition includes paratrooper apparel, Special Assignments to test your skill, and weekly items coming with Airlift.

This special edition Xbox One X features a unique dark gray to gold design and includes 4K Ultra HD Blu-ray, 4K Video Streaming, Spatial Audio and a matching wireless controller. (Battlefield 1943 playable online only.) It also comes with 1 month of EA Access, 1 month of Xbox Game Pass and 14 days of Xbox Live Gold.

Pre-order now; arrives in stores starting October 16, 2018 for $499.99, only while supplies last.

More Battlefield V Xbox One Bundles

If you’re looking for more Battlefield V bundles, we’ve got you covered. Pre-order the 1TB Xbox One S ($299.99) or 1TB Xbox One X ($499.99) Battlefield V Bundle and enjoy a digital download of Battlefield V: Deluxe Edition, which also comes with the paratrooper apparel, Special Assignments and weekly items via Airlift. Whether you’re rallying your troops, watching 4K movies, or streaming gameplay, there’s never been a better time to game with Xbox One.

Each bundle comes packed with an Xbox Wireless Controller, a digital download of Battlefield V Deluxe Edition, 1 month of Xbox Game Pass and 14 days of Xbox Live Gold.

Pre-order now; arrives in stores starting October 16, 2018.

Xbox One X Fallout 76 Bundle

Pre-order the Xbox One X Fallout 76 Bundle and experience the largest, most dynamic world ever created in the legendary Fallout universe. With support for 4K resolution and HDR, Bethesda Game Studios, the award-winning creators of Skyrim and Fallout 4 welcome you to Fallout 76, the online prequel where every surviving human is a real person. Twenty-five years after the bombs fall, you and your fellow Vault Dwellers – chosen from the nation’s best and brightest – emerge into post-nuclear America. Play solo or join together as you explore, quest, and build your way to triumph against the wasteland’s greatest threats.

The bundle comes packed with an Xbox Wireless Controller, a digital download of Fallout 76, 1 month of Xbox Game Pass and 1 month of Xbox Live Gold.

Pre-order now; arrives in stores starting November 14, 2018.

That’s a wrap-up of all the new bundles and accessories that were just announced at gamescom 2018 during Inside Xbox. Whether you’re an adventure lover striving to become Lara Croft in Shadow of the Tomb Raider, a Battlefield fanatic, looking to join the ranks of Vault-dwellers in Fallout 76 or a controller collector looking for that Xbox Wireless Controller – PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds Limited Edition, Xbox has got something for everyone. Games play best on Xbox One, so jump in and join the Xbox family! For more information, visit xbox.com.

via Xbox Live's Major Nelson https://ift.tt/2NcCPQr

#Xbox Live's Major Nelson

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dominionra · 5 years

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‘Retail apocalypse’ now: Analysts say 75,000 more U.S. stores could be doomed.

April 10, 2019 | By Abha Bhattarai | www.washingtonpost.com

Widespread closures have roiled the retail industry, but many more stores are likely to shut down in coming years to keep up with a shift to online shopping, according to a report by investment firm UBS.

An estimated 75,000 stores that sell clothing, electronics and furniture will close by 2026, when online shopping is expected to make up 25 percent of retail sales, according to UBS. Roughly 16 percent of overall sales are made online.

Analysts said the closures would affect a broad variety of retailers, affecting an estimated 21,000 apparel stores, 10,000 consumer electronics stores and 8,000 home furnishing stores.

[Brookstone is filing for bankruptcy and closing all of its stores]

Already this year, retailers have announced plans to close thousands of stores as they keep up with changing consumer habits. Payless ShoeSource, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in February, is closing all 2,100 of its U.S. stores, while Gymboree is shuttering its 800 locations. Sears, which has closed 1,300 Kmart and Sears stores since 2013, is scrapping an additional 80 locations. A number of other retailers, including Gap, have hinted that store closures are on the horizon.

The main reason for the shift, analysts say, is simple: Americans are increasingly shopping online. The average U.S. household spent $5,200 online last year, up nearly 50 percent from five years earlier.

“This is a healthy cleansing for the retail industry,” said John D. Morris, senior brand apparel analyst for financial services firm D.A. Davidson. “We’re in the middle of a multiyear retail purge. Companies are finding that when it comes to stores, less is more.”

[Toys R Us to close all 800 of its U.S. stores]

Overall, retailers have closed more than 15,000 stores since 2017, according to UBS. Among them: Radio Shack (which closed 1,470 stores), Toys R Us (735 stores), and Mattress Firm and GNC (700 stores each).

“Retailers have been hanging on too long to their bricks-and-mortar stores,” Morris said.

After a decade of steady retail closures — enough to coin the term “retail apocalypse” — analysts said in-store sales ticked up in 2018, in part because of tax cuts for some Americans. But those gains are likely to be reversed this year, said UBS analysts Jay Sole and Michael Lasser.

“This pace of store productivity improvement is unlikely to be sustained in 2019 as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades,” they wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. “This will likely lead to an acceleration in physical store closures in the upcoming year.”

Even so, some Internet-only companies such as furniture retailer Wayfair and mattress brand Casper are beginning to open physical stores. But analysts said these outposts — often smaller and more sparse than traditional stores — function more as showrooms for items customers can order online than a one-stop shop with swaths of inventory.

“The trend is toward more streamlined stores: Less chaos, less inventory, less choice,” Morris said. “If a customer wants something in a different color or size, they can find that online.”

Big-box retailers such Target and Ikea are also shrinking their store sizes to appeal to time-strapped shoppers in urban areas. Sears said last week that it will open a handful of “Sears Home & Life” shops that are about one-tenth the size of its traditional department stores.

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Dominion Realty Services & Real Estate Advisors (DRA) is a full service commercial real estate firm based in metro-Detroit and recognized nationally as a leading provider of professional real estate services. Consisting of a property portfolio, totaling more than 7 million square feet, Dominion brings decades of experience and expertise in property and asset management, transactional brokerage and real estate advisory, receiverships, construction management, design and development.

DRA is committed to bringing its clients creative, cutting-edge solutions and providing the highest level of professional service fostering long-lasting relationships based on loyalty, integrity, and trust. DRA assists corporate clients, lenders, institutions, property owners, investors and real estate developers in achieving their real estate objectives.

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#market trends

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charlesccastill · 7 years

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Southern NH Retail Inventory Reported at 29.8 Million SF, Vacancy at 9.1 Percent

BURLINGTON, MA—KeyPoint Partners, LLC has released The KeyPoint Report for Southern New Hampshire 2017. This comprehensive retail real estate Report examines supply, occupancy, absorption, and retailer expansion and contraction for virtually every retail property in the region.

According to the Report, total retail real estate inventory in the region was 29.8 million square feet, a modest decline of 59,400 square feet, or 0.2%. The vacancy rate was 9.1%, an improvement from 10.5% in 2016. Mattress Firm was the retailer adding the most new space in the region, by way of its acquisition of Sleepy’s. Amusement & Recreation Facilities and Hobby, Toy & Game stores led all retail categories in added square footage, with Health & Fitness leading in expansion by number of new locations. The Family Apparel category closed the most square footage in the region, contracting by 53,800 square feet.

Bob Sheehan

“Given the current backdrop of the retail industry and innuendos of a retail apocalypse, things weren’t so bad in Southern New Hampshire in 2017. In fact, they were pretty good,” said Bob Sheehan, Vice President of Research at KeyPoint Partners. “Big box vacancies found users after sitting idle for as long as six years. In the 40,000+ square foot category, prospects are few and far between. But the stars aligned, and new tenants absorbed, at least partially, a Walmart box, Shaw’s, Market Basket, Lowe’s, Hannaford, and Sports Authority”, Sheehan notes. “New players entering the region via these vacant units include Chunky’s, Ocean State Job Lot, Cardi’s Furniture, NH1 Motorplex Indoor Karting, Cowabunga’s, Hobby Lobby, Boston Interiors, Party City, Petco, and Guitar Center. Together these tenants reduced vacant space in the region by 346,600 square feet – a remarkable feat in one year.”

“It should be no surprise that the vacancy rate in Southern New Hampshire, after jumping up nearly a full point last year, came all the way back down to 9.1%, the lowest since 2008, when the figure stood at 7.4%,” Sheehan added.

The KeyPoint Report is based on KeyPoint Partners’ GRIID, a powerful source of retail market knowledge that maintains detailed information on virtually every retail property in key New England markets. The Southern New Hampshire includes 39 cities and towns, representing more than 835 square miles and approximately 562,000 people (42% of the state population).

The KeyPoint Report for Greater Hartford, Connecticut will follow shortly.

from Boston Real Estate http://bostonrealestatetimes.com/southern-nh-retail-inventory-reported-at-29-8-million-sf-vacancy-at-9-1-percent/

#boston #condos #boston condos #boston luxury condo #boston condominium #boston rentals #boston condo

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trendtshirtnewposts · 4 years

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tissipropaganda · 4 years

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Where can Haim Chera take Vornado’s retail business?

The retail apocalypse delivered a one-two punch to Vornado Realty Trust last year when a pair of its largest retail tenants filed for bankruptcy. The first came in May 2019, when British apparel company Topshop announced it was closing all of its U.S. stores, including two locations, on Fifth Avenue in Midtown and Broadway in Soho, owned by Steven Roth’s publicly traded real estate behemoth. The second blow came four months later in September 2019,

Source: https://therealdeal.com/2020/04/28/for-haim-chera-the-opportunities-are-as-big-as-the-challenges/

#Aaron Leider #Aaron #Leider

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newtshirtcom · 4 years

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drcontrarian · 4 years

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13 Predictions about the post-Covid Hospitality World

In this article - well worth the read - by Micha Magid the co-founder of Mighty Quinn’s Barbeque (US fast-casual concept) , a number of very specific predictions are made. I have summarised 13 that I liked below. The only caveat is that the assumption is that people will have the money to behave in the ways predicted.

Approximately 25 percent of all restaurants remain indefinitely closed with 90 percent of the closures hitting independently owned locations.

Delivery focused restaurant brands do very well into the end of the year.

Digital order channels are flowing, people embrace their missed sense of normalcy and business is back.

Fast casual and quick service continue to outperform the beleaguered restaurant industry while the casual-dining sector suffers as people just aren’t ready to linger in dining rooms.

Small independent restaurants still struggle in the fourth quarter and many favorites have closed forever while others are able to slowly get back to business.

The salad chains underperform the rebound as raw food still caries caution in the national psyche.

Great ethnic restaurants become increasingly harder to find as they suffered the most closures while the remaining survivors are slow to return as consumers dine out with an irrational abundance of caution through the end of 2020.

It’s a burger, pizza, pasta, BBQ, burrito world through the end of the year.

Mobile user interface, customization and ease of ordering become just as important as in-house service. For the second half of 2020, order ahead and digital delivery ordering are the primary drivers of the rebound in restaurant revenue.

Large malls continue to suffer. The slow-motion brick and mortar retail apocalypse will accelerate as bankruptcies spike following holiday 2020.

The mall repositioning away from apparel retail and into food and entertainment will no longer work.

Crowded communal tables in food courts … too soon.

As the work from home population increases the residential adjacent restaurants will see increased profitability from a stronger lunch day-part in a time of softening rents.

#Covid-19

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preciousmetals0 · 5 years

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China’s Contagious Optimism; Oppenheimer Bombs Tesla Shorts

China’s Contagious Optimism; Oppenheimer Bombs Tesla Shorts:

Phase 1 Signing = Phase 1 Optimism

It’s trade deal week! Are you excited?

Yes, dear reader, the much-hyped “phase 1” U.S.-China trade deal will finally be signed this week. It’s about time, I must say.

In case you’ve been trapped behind a wall, I put all the nitty-gritty details together in bullet points below (We all love bullet points, don’t we?):

China agreed to buy $200 billion in U.S. farm goods and other products/services over two years.

China agreed to address the protection of U.S. intellectual property.

China agreed to provide U.S. companies greater access to its financial sector.

China agreed to not devalue its currency to prop up exporters.

The U.S. agreed to not impose new tariffs on $156 billion in Chinese imports.

The U.S. agreed to halve the existing 15% tariff rate on $120 billion of Chinese goods.

The U.S. agreed to increase the number of tariff exceptions it’s willing to grant.

Not too shabby for a phase 1 deal.

But, Chinese social media account Taoran Notes was quick to remind everyone: “We must bear in mind that the trade war is not over yet.” After all, the U.S. still maintains tariffs on some Chinese imports, and China is “still implementing retaliatory measures.”

What’s more, the U.S. plans to pursue a “phase 2” agreement as soon as possible to address subsidies for Chinese businesses, Chinese cyber intrusions in the U.S. and technology transfer to Chinese businesses.

We’re clearly not out of the woods yet, but this appears to be an excellent starting point.

The Takeaway:

With the phase 1 signing comes phase 1 optimism.

Bullish sentiment surrounding the deal has become quite infectious. Everyone from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) to JD.com Inc. (Nasdaq: JD) to Tencent Holdings Ltd. (OTC: TCEHY) surged today.

Heck, even video streaming service Bilibili Inc. (Nasdaq: BILI) and electric vehicle maker Nio Inc. (NYSE NIO) are joining in the fun.

The thing is, most of these companies weren’t directly affected by the U.S. tariffs anyway. Alibaba makes most of its money selling goods and services in China and Southeast Asia. (Singles Day sales hit an all-time high of $38.3 billion at Alibaba despite the trade war.) It was the same with JD.com.

Tencent has the most U.S. exposure, but most of that is due to online app sales and microtransaction revenue.

The point is, for the vast majority of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, the trade war can be more accurately described as a war on investor sentiment. If you were able to weather the spike in negativity toward these stocks, you’re about to be well rewarded.

Alibaba, for instance, has surged more than 34% since the phase 1 deal was announced. BABA shares now trade at all-time highs. JD.com shares saw similar performance, but remain about 22% below their all-time highs — so there’s room to grow here for China’s biggest online retailer (by revenue).

Right now, you’re probably wondering: “Should I invest in Chinese stocks, or is it too late?”

Well … it’s not too late, per se, but chasing the current rally might not net you the kinds of gains you’re looking for. Today’s phase 1 signing optimism comes at the tail end of a four-month rally for U.S.-listed Chinese stocks.

Are there more gains to be had? Certainly. But you might be better served if you wait for a bit of consolidation or profit-taking from early investors before diving back into the sector at this point.

That said, keep an eye on Alibaba and JD.com as earnings draw near. Alibaba reports around January 29 and JD.com near February 14. After a record-breaking Singles Day, both should offer up impressive numbers that could send the stocks skipping higher.

Good: Oppenheimer, Destroyer of Shorts

I don’t think there’s a better word to describe Tesla Inc. (Nasdaq: TSLA) short sellers right now than “thunderstruck.” (Well, maybe “screwed.”)

This morning, Oppenheimer dropped a bomb on TSLA shorts by lifting its price target on the stock from $385 to $612 — which is way more specific than $500 or $0. Analyst Colin Rusch said he believes Tesla has hit “critical scale” and can now sustain positive free cash flow.

The boost sent TSLA shares soaring above the $500 mark for the first time ever. But it’s even worse than that for Tesla shorts. The stock has more than doubled in the past three months, raining pain down upon short sellers.

Despite a 5% decline in the most recent reporting period, 19.6% of Tesla’s float (or shares available for public trading) remains sold short. After hitting $500 today, I expect that figure to decline rapidly as shorts get squeezed into buying back their positions and ending their bearish pain.

The bottom line: We haven’t seen the end of the current Tesla bull rally. (And we haven’t even touched on Model 3 fart noises yet!)

Better: Hot Pants, Hot Stock

“What retail apocalypse?”

That’s what investors in Lululemon Athletica Inc. (Nasdaq: LULU) must be thinking today. The athleisure apparel retailer just lifted its earnings and sales forecasts for the holiday quarter due to strong seasonal demand.

Lululemon lifted its earnings expectations by $0.12 to between $2.22 and $2.25 per share, with revenue expected to come in between $1.37 billion and $1.38 billion — a $5 million boost to prior guidance.

That’s a lot of yoga pants. Enough to push LULU shares to a fresh all-time high.

If Lululemon teaches us anything about retail, it’s that this so-called retail apocalypse isn’t affecting every retailer. Only the ones that apparently can’t adapt quickly enough to changing retail demands. On that note, Lululemon already learned its lesson, and it’s executing impressively right now.

Best: In the Cards for Big Data

If you’re not familiar with Cardlytics Inc. (Nasdaq: CDLX), you need to get familiar now.

The company specializes in analyzing banking rewards program data and turning that information into actionable marketing and advertising strategies. While this may sound boring — let’s be honest, digging through someone’s bank rewards data would put all of us right to sleep — Cardlytics’ business model is very profitable.

The company has beaten Wall Street’s earnings projections in every quarter for the past year. And it’s about to do so once again. Cardlytics just announced preliminary fourth-quarter results, and Wall Street is shocked.

The company expects total revenue to be between $68.5 million and $69.5 million on total billings of between $99 million and $101 million. Now, those numbers may not mean a lot to you, but Wall Street is very impressed, let me tell you.

How impressed? CDLX shares are up more than 21% following the preliminary announcement.

It’s a vulnerable time for a lot of these young dudes, feel me? They don’t be taking care of their chicken right. … I’ll tell y’all right now while y’all in it, take care of your bread so when you’re all done you can go ahead and take care of yourself.

— Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks running back

After losing to the Green Bay Packers last night, Lynch refused to offer up your typical sportsball clichés — and instead offered up a unique perspective on money. Clearly, Lynch’s commentary was aimed at NFL players — 80% of whom suffer from financial stress shortly after retiring.

However, Lynch’s words of caution also apply to anyone when it comes to retirement, echoing the Great Stuff motto of “be prepared.”

I wonder if we could get away with changing that to: “Are you taking care of your chicken right?” or “Are you making bread to keep yourself ahead?”

Maybe we’ll just leave that to Marshawn. That seems best.

Great Stuff Helps You Protect Your Bread

Mr. Great Stuff, you could’ve left the analogy in the last section.

I see your point and sidestep it to tell you the best way to care for your chicken — er, wealth.

If you’re serious about maintaining your wealth, freedom and independence in a (sometimes) scary world, Ted Bauman has your back.

Having worked with clients as high and mighty as the United Nations, the World Bank and the South African government, Ted’s not your ordinary “business consultant.” Instead, you’ll find that Ted cares about teaching you how to protect your money just as much as growing it.

Ted’s thousands of subscribers already know his no-holds-barred perspective from The Bauman Letter … but here’s your chance to reap Ted’s wisdom free.

It’s the best news you could get on a Monday … Ted and company are bringing market insights and real-world commentary to your inbox with the new Bauman Daily! Don’t miss out on the tips and tricks that can keep your money safe … click here to start reading.

Remember, it’s a vulnerable time for a lot of these young dudes (and dudettes) … feel me?

Until next time, good trading!

Regards,

Joseph Hargett

Great Stuff Managing Editor, Banyan Hill Publishing

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goldira01 · 5 years