#Statistical independence

[shakir2]

Making Dua’a [Imploring] 

Every conscious being for something sometimes or often implores. Either to God, to some deity or to deity-like. For believers, it has a spiritual dimension, so they often implore. Those who are patient wait for its fruition. Those who are impatient or after waiting a long time get frustrated begin seeking answers for its non-acceptance.  Here is my unconventional point of view about it. Readers…

[gregor-samsung]

The Swedish Theory of Love (Erik Gandini, 2015)

[6ebe]

the perfect inverse correlation between the results of the panthers and the England men’s rugby team is killing me 😭

[ofcowardiceandkings]

i dont know how much i trust the reporting publication here but ..

hey, hey NHS, how about you say doctors cant use AI in their reporting and diagnoses :)

just in case :)

[rotzaprachim]

this is definitely not the first time war has ended up on tumblr.net but it’s still wild to see people learn about the horrific haze of wartime reporting and chains of knowledge amidst a fandom-esque desire to be right all time time. “You can’t believe that all you have is witness testimonies, military reports and foreign news agents” girl how do you THINK information gets reported in a war

[laf-outloud]

I know this won't be totally accurate until the adjusted final ratings are in, but just for fun:

the live ratings (not counting +3 or +7) for TW started at 781k for the pilot and dropped to 484k with the finale making a 42% decrease in ratings (and this isn't even looking at the MUCH lower ratings a lot of the middle eps got)

In comparison, WIndy started at 615k live viewers for the pilot and ended with 441k for the finale making a 28% decrease in ratings.

Ooh, a numbers anon! I love you. LOL!

It's even more of a difference if you look at the season averages.

The Winchesters Live average would be 464K, making it a 40.5% drop for the season (if the numbers hold). WIndy's average is 497K, which gives them only a 19% drop in viewer average.

In addition, at this time, the Live+7 averages also favor WIndy. (They numbers are currently running at a 26.2% decrease for TW and a 14.7% decrease for WIndy.)

For the two freshman shows, WIndy did a much better job of holding on to its viewers and remaining consistent for the network.

[zincbot]

sometimes i see takes on firebenders that are. not very well thought out.

[queeranarchism]

If your democrat friends start muttering about stolen election conspiracy theories, the time to have a sit down with them and express your concerns is NOW, while you still have a chance to reach them, not 6 months from now when they're fully conspiracy-pilled.

Here's some of the talking points and why they're bullshit:

'10 million votes don't just disappear!' -> Joe Biden's 81 million votes were a statistical outlier, sparked by the recent experience of the Trump presidency. The democrats failed to maintain that sense of urgency, but Harris still got more votes than Hillary Clinton, more than Obama and more than any previous democratic candidate. These numbers are not weird at all.

'The Republicans tried to infiltrate election- and vote counting organizations!' -> yeah, they did, and yet hundreds of independent legal observers didn't see anything go wrong enough to raise any alarms. Independent exit polls are also very consistently similar to the counted votes. Tons of international organizations specialized in this stuff observed the election and didn't see a reason to raise the alarm.

'But I know a dozen democrats whose mail-in votes were not counted!' -> In any election a certain number of votes are registered as invalid because something was wrong with the ballot. In a country the size of the US, that translates to many thousands of votes. The internet allows these people to find each other, creating the false impression that a suspiciously large group of votes was not valid.

'Musk used Star Link to mess with electronic voting!' -> Electronic voting machines are not connected to the internet and dozens of independent media have already debunked this myth. It is absolutely impossible to use Star Link to fake election results.

'There is voter disenfranchisement!' -> This is true. This has always been true, for every election. It's an issue worth talking about but it's not a special secret conspiracy that's unique to this election.

But just as importantly as the facts: sit down with your friend and talk about the anxiety that's behind their conspiracy leanings. Acknowledge their pain and fear. Help them find ways to feel less powerless and regain their sense of agency. Take them to a mutual aid event, involve them in a fundraising event for a marginalized group, invite them to a local community effort. If they spend more time feeling connection and empowerment and less time doom scrolling online, they're far more likely to stay in reality.

[cesium-sheep]

part of the Bad Feeling Soup, which I'm sure I've mentioned at some point, is like. the timing of when I first got really sick. obviously it can be very emotionally complicated to become disabled at any age, for any reason, although boy I wish old people would stop tying to work their feelings out through me, but. I became disabled almost immediately after successfully completing college. early, even. I graduated 9 months early, I went into military training where I could barely contact anyone, and suddenly I came back disabled. this reads to others like I've never had experience of the Real World, which is dumb, I do still in fact live in the real world and frankly have done significantly longer than my age would indicate, as is true for most abused children. but I've joked about it before, I basically went from college to old age in the space of a couple months. taken out at the knees before I could even get started. and it's fucked up and strange and it's further compounded by barely getting to be a kid either so like honestly it would be fitting to die at like 35 or whatever, I'm apparently just speed running the life stages. cut em all right in half. except even then the numbers are completely wrong for the portion where people supposedly take you seriously.

it's really hard to articulate the weird and uncommon position the timing of my disability puts me in. I'm sure it's happened to others, but I don't know them. I have friends who got too sick to finish college, I have friends who were already pushing through severe illness to get through college, I have friends who needed multiple attempts to get where they needed to be (though that seems more common with mental illness?), but no one in this specific position.

and of course it bears repeating that it is super dumb to treat me differently just cuz I got disabled before I could join the Full Time Work Force - anything that could be said to disparage my experience as insufficient or unrealistic can be said about people who are underemployed, gig workers, self employed, professional students, field scientists, etc etc etc basically it's dumb as hell and retail/food service and office work aren't the only two Real Jobs on the planet. "oh you've never had to put up with the same shitty office mate for years" "oh you've never had terrible customers yell in your face 6 times in the same day" neither did my grandpa while he was farming for 70+ years I know you ain't gonna tell me that man didn't have a Real Job pisses me off honestly.

idfk I feel like there's something I want to articulate about the timing of my disability but I don't fully know what it is. it sucks. it all sucks.

[sweet-as-kiwis]

Never before have I turned in negative peer reviews. The time has finally come.

[cheesyradfem]

still thinking of this paragraph from what was the girlboss?

[jynxeddraca]

The worst part about this election cycle is that no matter who you vote for, you're just voting for damage control at this point. Elections have always been about picking the candidate that will get you a step closer to what you want to see in the world, but this year it's especially bad.

The big two candidates boil down to choosing between a raging chemical fire and a large dumpster fire, and without ranked voting, 3rd party candidates basically don't stand a chance no matter how much better they are. Supreme Court seats are going to become available within this term and that fucking terrifies me considering they just said sitting presidents have total immunity.

And to the younger people watching and feeling hopeless and possibly deciding if they even want to bother to vote - still go out and vote. Not because someone worthy of being a leader will get it, but to minimize damage where it can be. And it sucks.

Republicans spent decades pushing their party to the right and telling everyone to meet them in the middle, which they did, and it will take time to push things to a true middle again. I'm not going to use this post to tell you who to vote for, you can do research and pick who you want, just you should get out and vote. Especially in your local elections.

For the love of all that is good, vote for your local elections if you vote for nothing else. Because the people currently making the rules are relying on a voting base that shows up every election big or small and local elections can be won with literally a single vote. And when things get bad in the federal sphere, your state politicians may be the only things that can effectively push back. Same thing with state vs local, sometimes it's your city officials that are the ones pushing back on state laws.

[wordgoods]

orthogonal | ôrˈTHäɡən(ə)l

of or involving right angles; at right angles.

STATISTICS (of variates) statistically independent • (of an experiment) having variates which can be treated as statistically independent.

[tenth-sentence]

The coefficient of reversion was thus independent of heredity; it was purely a property of statistical manipulation itself.

"In the Name of Eugenics: Genetics and the Uses of Human Heredity" - Daniel J. Kevles

[13thpythagoras]

NGL my favorite part of Disneyland was always the pirate / New Orleans section

[yungcommunard]

“It would be naïve to depend on the Supreme Court to defend the rights of poor people, women, people of color, dissenters... Those rights only come alive when citizens organize, protest, demonstrate, strike, boycott, rebel, and violate the law...to uphold justice. The rights of working people, of women, of Black people have not depended on decisions of the courts. Like the other branches of the political system, the courts have recognized these rights only after citizens have engaged in direct action powerful enough to win these rights. for themselves. Let us not be disconsolate over the increasing control of the court system by the right wing. The courts have never been on the side of justice, only moving a few degrees one way or the other, unless pushed by the people. Those words engraved in the marble of the Supreme Court, 'Equal Justice Before the Law,' have always been a sham. No Supreme Court, liberal or conservative, will stop the war in Iraq, or redistribute the wealth... or establish free medical care for every human being. Such fundamental change will depend, the experience of the past suggests, on the actions of an aroused citizenry, demanding that the promise of the Declaration of Independence—an equal right to life, liberty, & the pursuit of happiness—be fulfilled” 

- Howard Zinn