#So I would put Murphy and Tom Hulce's performance in Amadeus in a different category

[femme-foucault]

Award Season Guesses - late December 2024

Alright, well I still haven't seen The Brutalist (or Nickel Boys) because it's not releasing outside NYC and LA until sometime in January and I have no intention of seeing A Complete Unknown precisely because I am a Bob Dylan fan. So I haven't really updated my list of predictions from about a month ago or so. I am tempted to include The Substance but it is a sliiiiiim possibility given how the Oscars snubs work in horror. So here are my predictions as of late December 2024.

Above the Line Awards:

Alphabetical order as usual. My suspected winners in bold and runner-ups/potential "upsets in italics.

Best Picture:

Anora*

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune Pt 2

Emilia Perez

Nickel Boys

A Real Pain

Sing Sing

The Substance (????)

Wicked Pt 1

I am going on a limb and guessing The Substance does get in even though I think it is reeeeally a stretch. The Academy snubs horror films all the time, especially in acting (see Toni Collette in Hereditary and Mia Goth in Pearl). But the GG noms made me reconsider even though the GG is a critics/journalism awards show and the Oscars are an industry awards show and like any "election," demographic patterns vary. But actually if anything I think critics are snobbier about horror than industry people so that's a good sign. No idea what will win -- which is fun! 2024 was not nearly as good as 2023, which was an unusually packed year for great movies. But in a way, that makes Awards Season more fun because there isn't a clear front runner. I am leaning Anora right now for BP like I have been all year, but I would NOT underestimate either Wicked or Emilia Perez. I don't like the latter movie very much and while I did really enjoy Wicked I wouldn't say it was the best of the year. But don't underestimate the Oscars leaning populist because all three of the last BP winners in awards season were very much "crowd pleasers" over more "artsy" choices like Power of the Dog or Poor Things. (It feels odd to call Oppenheimer a "crowd pleaser" as that movie is so bleak, but technically, it counts in the sense that many people saw it and both general audiences and industry people liked it. So I'd put it next to EEAO and CODA as a "crowd-pleaser" Best Picture winner and a "populist" choice due to it making so much money because of Barbeheimer despite being, technically, a kinda weird movie when you dissect it. So don't underestimate Wicked!).

Best Director: Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), maaaaybe Coralie Fargeat, but ONLY if The Substance gets into Best Picture. I have taken Denis Villeneuve (Dune Pt 2) out of my predictions even though he deserves it because Dune Pt 2 was better than the first one. But until I see The Brutalist, I can't evaluate it. I wouldn't be surprised if we got a rare Best Picture and Best Director split.

Best Actress in A Lead Role: Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Perez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikkey Madison (Anora).....and if and only if The Substance The Substance gets into picture, maaaaaybe Demi Moore. She probably deserves it (I haven't seen The Substance because I'm squeamish), but the Academy is awful about nominating horror performances (see Toni Collette for Hereditary). The alternative might be Nicole Kidman for Babygirl.

Best Actor in a Lead Role: Adrian Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave).

I am leaning Brody based on trailers alone (the Academy loves an accent and a WWII-post Holcaust drama) but even if Chalamet is mid -- and apparently he is quite good -- the Academy isn't above rewarding lame music biopics. See Austin Butler's nomination for Elvis and Rami Malek winning for Bohemian Rhapsody. ACU is apparently good -- I really hate that kind of biopic so I am not there for it -- so all Chalamet has to do to be decent for the boomer crowd who likes Dylan to vote for him.

Best Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez), Margaret Qualley (The Substance).

Still leaning Saldana but Grande is not to be underestimated (the Academy are more likely to award comedic performances in supporting -- see Ryan Gosling's nom last year. He might have won if RDJ didn't have The Narrative). I am putting Rosselini in there now that she got into GG and if I am going to lean towards The Substance, maybe Qualley. Felicity Jones isn't doing well in critics circles but I think if The Brutlaist is popular, she could be the Emily Blunt of the season (the person who gets nominated for being in a popular movie and tags along but doesn't win anything, which is what happened with Emily Blunt last year because Oppenheimer was so popular with the industry and critics that she got a lot of "tag along" noms but no real wins).

Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)...and someone else. Idk maybe one of the Anora guys (Yura Borisov (Igor?). I don't see the supporting performances from Conclave aside from Rosselini getting in because while everyone was good...that is part of the problem. No one but her really stood out because everyone in the supporting cast was so solid and I think Anora is a bit similar in that regard except that Borisov's character sticks out as having a sliver of decency. It's weird to think that the sentence "Oscar winner Kieran Culkin" might be a thing. As much as I like Culkin from Succession, my actual vote would be Maclin. But no one saw that movie :( I am including Washington even though Gladiator II got poor to mixed reviews because he's Denzel. He is such a great actor who was snubbed for his best performances that now they nominate him all the time to make up for it, and it's such a weak year in this category that I'm not complaining.

Original Screenplay: Idk what is original and adapted, but I think Anora wins Screenplay, especially if it doesn't win Best Picture. The recent trend is sometimes to throw a movie that won't be awarded anywhere else a screenplay award (see last year with both American Fiction and Anatomy of A Fall). The other possibility might be A Real Pain if they decide to award it.

Other than Anora, I think: The Brutalist, A Real Pain, The Substance, and maybe September 5 if they follow the Globes (which they don't always do because the Golden Globes are a press/critics award and the Oscars are industry so different voting demographics).

Adapted Screenplay: No idea what is even in this category. The distinction between Original and Adapted is pretty arbitrary at times (see: Barbie in Adapted last year). My guesses are A Complete Unknown (based on a specific Dylan bio apparently), Conclave (based on a novel), Emilia Perez (I think inspired by something?), Sing Sing (loosely based on a true story) and idk what the fifth slot is.

Who I think will win in the tech categories:

Best Production Design: Wicked. Dune Pt 2 might be an upset.

Costume: Obviously Wicked.

Special Effects: Probably Dune Pt 2 but it could be something I haven't heard of that the effects branch likes, because that happens often.

Hair and Make Up: If The Substance gets in, maaaybe. This is the one category that horror is recognized so I wouldn't be surprised if The Substance and maybe even Nosferatu gets in. But it might be Wicked if the Academy does what it often does and people outside the nominating branches just vote for the movie they like more, in which case it would be Wicked. Dune Pt 2 should get at least a nomination for Rebecca Ferguson's possessed henna.

Cinematography: Either Conclave or Anora. It really depends how 1) Anora does in general and 2) if it does well, if there is a "share the love" vibe. The Academy doesn't do the massive Titanic/Lord of the Rings sweeps anymore (and I'm fine with that) -- see last year giving Zone of Interest the Sound award and American Fiction got Adapted Screenplay when a lot of people thought Oppenheimer was a lock for both because it was the BP frontrunner and, if this was the 2000s, probably would have taken them by default. In the EEAAO year, an Edward Berger film (All Quiet on the Western Front) won cinematography over EEAAO in an upset, so it wouldn't be unprecedented if that happened again with Conclave.I hope it's not Emilia Perez. That movie is very flashy but I don't like the cinematography much. It's all flash no style. Dune Pt 2 will definitely be nominated but I feel like its spring release hurt it.

Score: It'd be cool if Challengers got nominated but I don't see it, unfortunately. The score branch is not that cool and prefers instrumental scores over tech/synth music, even though Trent has been nominated before. I don't know what will win, since Dune 2 is not even eligible.

Sound Design: It better be Dune Pt 2. I think Wicked and probably A Complete Unknown will get nominated because of the music mixing (which, in Wicked, was very subtle and well done and apparently ACU sounds great too). But I really don't like biopics about musicians so I'd rather it not. I wouldn't mind a Wicked nom here, but Dune Pt 2 is so inventive in its sound design that I am rooting for it.