#I think I like Kuprin's works

[blobee]

God bless my fast reading

But six books in 7-8 hours sounds pathetic... ugh

Anyway

tomorrow will be the day of that ridiculous December essay, or whatever it's called 😩

Have some doodles

[solved-notes]

Complete Guide to Unit 2, Section 1: A Clump of Lilac - Class 7 - Glitter Textbook

Introduction This post provides a comprehensive answer key to Unit 2, Section 1, A Clump of Lilac, from the Class 7 Glitter textbook. It includes oral answers, multiple-choice solutions, and detailed written responses to exercises. These solutions are carefully crafted to help students with their homework, classwork, and exam preparation. - Summary of A Clump of Lilac by Aleksandr I. Kuprin - Word Meaning of A Clump of Lilac by Aleksandr I. Kuprin - Oral Answers of A Clump of Lilac - Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs) - Read and Answer (Q&A of A Clump of Lilac) - Think and Answer - Reference to Context - HOTS Questions - Conversation Exercise - MCQs - Class 7 - A Clump of Lilac by Aleksandr I. Kuprin Summary of A Clump of Lilac by Aleksandr I. Kuprin

Nikolai Almazof, a young and hardworking army officer, storms into his home after a rough day at the academy. His wife, Vera, notices his distress and patiently asks what has happened. Nikolai reveals that his survey project has been rejected by his strict professor due to a mistake—a green blotch he had accidentally made on the map. In an attempt to hide the blot, Nikolai had creatively added a clump of trees, but his professor, who knew the area well, pointed out that no trees existed there. Humiliated and fearing disgrace, Nikolai feels defeated. Vera, however, refuses to let him give up. She quickly formulates a bold plan to plant real bushes at the disputed spot to make her husband's work accurate. Selling their valuables at a pawnshop, they gather enough money to buy lilac bushes from a gardener. Together, late into the night, they plant the bushes to match the map. The next day, Nikolai takes his professor to the spot. The professor, upon seeing the bushes, is convinced they had always been there. He even apologises for doubting Nikolai. Triumphant, Nikolai returns home, sharing his victory with Vera, whose courage and determination had saved the day. The story highlights the power of love, resourcefulness, and determination, showing how Vera’s steadfast support turns a looming failure into a triumphant success. Word Meaning of A Clump of Lilac by Aleksandr I. Kuprin Words/ExpressionsMeaningFrowning faceA face showing worry or anger.GloomilyIn a sad or hopeless way.PortfolioA flat case used to carry papers or drawings.Survey of the neighbourhoodA detailed map or drawing of the nearby area.PedantA person who is very concerned with rules and details, often annoyingly so.VerstAn old Russian unit of distance, equal to about 1.06 kilometres.Hoarse stammerA rough and shaky way of speaking or making a sound.Mobile faceA face that shows changing expressions easily.Determined effortA strong and focused attempt to do something difficult.PawnshopA place where people trade valuable items for money temporarily.BrilliantA bright and expensive gemstone, often used in jewellery.TurfGrass and the soil beneath it, usually cut out for transplanting.ProfessorA teacher, often one with expertise in a specific subject, usually in a college or university.PluckedPicked or pulled off something, like a leaf from a tree.ExcellencyA respectful title used to address someone important, like a professor or high-ranking officer.Triumph of victoryThe great joy of achieving success.Passers-byPeople walking past a certain place.MarvellousExtremely good or wonderful. Oral Answers of A Clump of Lilac Question 1: Have you ever seen a lilac flower? Describe it. Yes, I have. A lilac flower is violet-coloured, small, and known for its strong fragrance. It grows in bunches and is found in many parts of the world, including Australia, Russia, and Japan. Question 2: Describe an incident where Kolya skipped school. On his way to school, Kolya was invited by a group of boys to join them. For three days, he skipped school to catch fish with them. Feeling guilty, he shared his problem with his teacher, who offered guidance and helped him feel relieved. Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs) Q1: The first option is (C) Kolya. Q2: The correct option is (B) It was at the third attempt that Kolya cleared the exam. Q3: The correct option is (B) Veera. Read and Answer (Q&A of A Clump of Lilac) Question 1: How did Veera help Kolya? Veera supported Kolya in many ways. She encouraged him during difficult times and sacrificed luxuries to provide him with modest comforts. She also helped by copying papers, drawing plans, and reading aloud for him. Question 2: What role did Veera play in planting the clump of lilac? Veera pawned her diamond earrings for 25 roubles to buy lilac bushes. She convinced a gardener to plant them on the spot in such a way that they blended with the surroundings, ensuring Kolya’s map appeared flawless. Question 3: Who was Nikolai Yavgrafovitch Almasov? Nikolai, also known as Kolya, was a young, ambitious officer who worked hard to achieve his goals. However, he lacked the endurance and meticulousness to succeed without external help. Think and Answer Question 1: Where is the story set, and what is Kolya’s nationality? The story is set in Russia, and Kolya is Russian. Question 2: Why did Kolya include the clump of lilac in his map? Kolya accidentally made a thick green spot on his map. To cover the mistake, he claimed it was a clump of lilac bushes and later drew the bushes to validate his claim. Question 3: What did Veera notice about Kolya’s behaviour? Veera noticed Kolya buying grass and realised that the story of the lilac bushes had been successfully resolved. Question 4: Why did the couple choose lilac bushes? The couple chose lilac bushes because they likely found them attractive and thought they would make the story more believable. Reference to Context Part A: Who said this to Kolya? The professor said this to Kolya. Part B: What does the place refer to? The place on the map where Kolya had drawn a clump of green bushes. Part C: Describe the speaker. The speaker was a knowledgeable and clever man with a sharp memory. Part D: What decision was made? The professor decided they would inspect the place together the next morning. HOTS Questions Question 1: What would have happened if the gardener had refused to help? If the gardener had refused, Kolya’s map would have been rejected, and he would have returned to the regiment in disgrace. Question 2: What could the gardener have done instead? The gardener could have removed all the grass and greenery and spread sand to expose the error on the map. Conversation Exercise Nakul: Madam, we have been discussing changes to the project. Sucharita: Yes, we need more time. Teacher: How much time do you need? Sucharita: One week, madam. Teacher: No way! The parent-teacher meeting is around the corner. You have four days, but don’t compromise on quality. MCQs - Class 7 - A Clump of Lilac by Aleksandr I. Kuprin Objective Questions (MCQs):- - Who is the main character in A Clump of Lilac? a) Zinaida b) Nikolai c) Yevgeny d) Anton - What does the clump of lilac symbolise in the story? a) Love and affection b) Remembrance and hope c) Wealth and prosperity d) Friendship and loyalty - What season is described in the story? a) Winter b) Summer c) Spring d) Autumn - Where does the story take place? a) In a city garden b) In a village c) Near a riverbank d) In a bustling market - How does the story reflect the character's emotions? a) Through dialogues b) Through nature descriptions c) Through dramatic actions d) Through humorous incidents - What happens to the lilac clump by the end of the story? a) It wilts away b) It is cherished forever c) It is planted somewhere else d) It is forgotten - What is the primary theme of the story? a) War and peace b) Nostalgia and beauty of memories c) Adventure and exploration d) Friendship and betrayal - Which literary device is frequently used in the story? a) Simile b) Personification c) Hyperbole d) Alliteration - Why does the narrator admire the lilac so much? a) It reminds them of a loved one b) It is the rarest plant they have seen c) It symbolises their success d) It was gifted by a friend - What role does the setting play in the story? a) It creates a sense of urgency b) It enhances the mood of nostalgia c) It represents conflict d) It provides comic relief - Who gifted the clump of lilac? a) A stranger b) A family member c) A close friend d) The narrator - What type of mood dominates the story? a) Cheerful b) Melancholic c) Mysterious d) Comedic - What does the lilac remind the narrator of? a) Childhood memories b) An old teacher c) A beloved garden d) A lost relative - What does the lilac clump represent for the narrator? a) A personal failure b) A cherished possession c) A burden to carry d) An item of trade - What genre does the story belong to? a) Historical fiction b) Romantic tragedy c) Literary realism d) Adventure Answer Key:- - b) Nikolai - b) Remembrance and hope - c) Spring - b) In a village - b) Through nature descriptions - b) It is cherished forever - b) Nostalgia and beauty of memories - b) Personification - a) It reminds them of a loved one - b) It enhances the mood of nostalgia - c) A close friend - b) Melancholic - a) Childhood memories - b) A cherished possession - c) Literary realism Conclusion This guide to A Clump of Lilac includes oral answers, MCQs, and detailed written solutions to exercises. It simplifies understanding of the story and ensures thorough preparation for tests and exams. Share this post with your classmates to help them prepare better! https://youtu.be/LZDf7KGUf_c?si=5F5m6UT3vG-LxN8F Read the full article

[heatherrdavis1]

Bitcoin Rallies To $9400 | The Halving Anticipation Has Begun

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Well, it’s going on, everyone, my name is Nicholas Merton here, a dated Ash in today’s May 1st of 2020. Well, folks, I hope you are having a fantastic day wherever you are. And in today’s video, we’ve got a lot of things to discuss from Bitcoin’s price continuing to surge upward towards ninety four hundred dollars correcting over the last couple of hours, down to eighty eight hundred. However, all in all, holding the vast majority of its gains and looking like it might be going for more going into having it in mid-May. But outside of this as well, we’ve also got some really big developments in regards to the data science community for Bitcoin as the famed stock to flow model has gotten a reiteration from its original creator, Plan B. It talks about comparing Bitcoin not only as an evolving asset over time, but also comparing it to gold and silver within the stopped flow model. So going to be diving into all this and more especially as we go through our sponsored interview with Jackson from Kilbane Brown. Well, we dive deeper into this conversation of the new stock to flow model, as well as taking a look into what’s happening in regard to O.S.S. markets and institutional capital as we go through this major transformative shift between markets during all of the craziness with kov itself. We’ve got lots of things to discuss. Let’s not push off any longer. Dive right in to the video. So take a look across the board here for cryptocurrency markets, we can see the vast majority Kuprin currencies are urchin scenario right now between one to two percent. And again, this is just over the last 24 hours. But if we take a step back here, you can obviously see here over the last couple of days, guys, the cryptocurrency markets have been doing great. They’ve been phenomenally outpacing pretty much any market across the world. And we’ve started to really go vertical, as we talked about over the last few weeks as we started to recover here. And a lot of people were talking about Bitcoin going down to 6000 or 5000, you know, kind of earlier on before the having of it. Again, playing into the theory we had for a very long time here that valuations were going to rise in anticipation of the having of it. Now, I think a lot of this actually has to do is Jackson. I actually talk about in our interview later on into the new evaluation of the stock to flow model. And it’s a really interesting perspective. I want to spend some time diving into it, but I want to spend a little bit of time taking a look at this price action because we just reached our price target yesterday of around the upper nine thousand dollar range, around ninety five hundred dollars. Now, again, I don’t think we got exactly the ninety five hundred dollars or a few dollars short or in that case. And again, that’s always a point to most people out there can never be as greedy, be a little less greedy than the other person. A sense of your expectations always have your levels a little bit lower than those big evens. But all in all here, guys, this is basically what we’ve been theorizing. It’s been a lot faster than what I always thought about. I think the big mistake I always tend to make, and I think that a lot of people make in the space is we don’t anticipate how fast Bitcoin can move up. It can make these very stark moves very quickly. But again, volume was really nice. That was one of my big complaints. Still today is we started to make a higher move in price. But as we continued throughout the day, we really started to see here. We can take a look at B Allex. The volume came as spin or that one of the biggest spot voting days since back here and late March. So this is really good to see as we continue with the price. We’re seeing matching volume here. And again, I want to see a continuation of this across exchanges. But all in all, here, this is really good to see. We’re seeing as confidence and price. It looks like we’re holding here, even though we had a little bit of a pullback here. It seems like prices are holding the vast majority, the gains, and they’re looking like they want to recover and continue higher. You get a lot of these cattle’s with tall weeks’s or basically price eventually comes back on the next day. So in this case, I’m confident what we’re seeing. And I think, you know, again, being realistic here, I think the only thing we need to look at here is our Bitstamp chart here, that when we go ahead, pull it up here. Here we go. When you U.S. dollar. So basically, it’s going to go to just the chart here. We got to go to logarithmic and we’ve got a little bit of range that we could still see here going into May. And again, I think the highest level here is going to be somewhere in the upper nine thousand dollar range to ten thousand at max. But I’m not calling for anything too dramatic right now. I think we’ve seen the vast majority of this rally here. I know some people are calling for a breakthrough and having a bit above the line of resistance where we would basically start to climb higher. And here’s my only possibility. The only possible theory I have here in regards to that happening, we would have a continued rally here over the next week or so where we would break up above 10000. We break above these previous relative highs back here throughout 2019. And we would start our process of resting alongside the long line and resistance here and continuing higher as we go into the next coming months. OK, so it would be a multi month process here like we saw with gold, where prices rest along a lot of resistance, make it support and signify that we’re not going down the lower levels and we continue higher. Again, I don’t want to go ahead and make that that yet. I’m not going to try to make that call. But I will say here, I’m not really getting bearish on this until we start to see a day or two worth of downward price action. Again, you can set your stops. If you guys want a shot, possibly try to make that trade. We think it’s going to come down somewhere around six to seven thousand after the having event. You can do that again. It depends on what kind of you know, are you an investor, a trader? You just simply long term. Holdings is something we’re going to talk about in our newsletter, where, again, you really need to determine what you are as an individual. You are a trader investor in this market. Now, two of the things that just want to talk about before we dive in the stock flow model, a theorem, as well as the broader Auckland market, looking like it’s building into a wedge here for break out into the summer. Again, I always try to keep my estimates conservative. You guys know I’m exposed to all points, but warned me right now I’m going to be realistic with you. I don’t think we’re going to see a massive breakout. I also don’t think we’re going to see a massive sell off and all coins. But here’s my point. You can see here between a theory and one of the largest crypto currencies. And also, if we take a look at Bitcoin or Auckland dominance in this case, that we’re building a general wedge of higher lows and lower highs. And again, I think this is going to build into a technical pattern that’s going to help set us up into breaking into the longer term wedge and really spawning the next cycle for assets like a theorem and other crypto currencies other than Bitcoin. So, again, after the 90 percent correction means here, we got the double bottom here on the weekly chart. And now we’re building into the technical pattern to really signify that we’re ready for higher moves. So I thought I’d just toss and then show you guys again, you won’t get this looking at the hourly chart. Again, the thing I always emphasize, look at the daily, the weekly and the monthly. Those are the time frames you guys should be focusing on. The vast majority people should be focusing on whatever your trading style is. All right. So let’s go ahead and talk a little bit about this new stock to flow model that Plan B has put together. And again, if you guys haven’t already. You guys should follow plan B on Twitter and stuff. It’s a really interesting character and stuff. I’ve I have some individuals I know who have worked in the data science community who know that Plan B and they they share their data science models are really interesting. Awesome guys who are just always contributing to the space. So let’s just go ahead and talk a little bit about the current stock to flow model that existed beforehand. So the stock to flow model originally that was created by Plan B and then it’s been kind of model. It’s been modified a little bit as time progresses. It basically showcases here how bitcoin over time as we start to go through these adjusted periods where we have having event come through every about four years and crypto markets, how we see price correlate in kind of a a waxing waning or a kind of, you know, peak and trough around this general fair value range for the stock to flow model. And we can see as time progresses, as we go through these having events, whether it’s a little bit beforehand or a little bit afterwards, we see price resurge to new highs. All right. So this is the current flow model and it’s played a lot of relevancy. It’s probably one of the very few models. And I just want to emphasize the significance and congrats to Plan B on this. It’s been one of the most valuable models here, taking one of those fundamental aspects of Bitcoin that actual institutional investors care about. If we’re talking about people who are deploying, you know, tens, if not hundreds of millions of dollars, if not billions of dollars of capital to the cryptocurrency space. This is the model they care about. OK. So that holds a lot of relevancy. And when Plan B put this new model together that we’re gonna be talking about, it probably plays a very big role into why we’re seeing a lot of confidence coming in cryptocurrency markets. It really puts it in to an interesting perspective. Now, in this model, we’re simply just taking a look at Bitcoin evolving in a sense, what’s price over time, through out having events. And it’s a great model, but it doesn’t really help us see Bitcoin as a broader asset in the world. And it also does it tell us the story about how Bitcoin as an asset has evolved. A lot of people, including Plan B, hold a very solid theory that as time progresses, Bitcoin has become a changing asset even over the last decade. The perspective of Bitcoin is has changed a lot in this short period of time. And he taught it to talks about this. The term a phase transitions. So this basically talks about how, you know, you got to use the example here of how, for example, water can go from a solid to a liquid to a gas to ionized in this case. Right. So, again, the different states of matter. Right. Is this as an analogy? But he talks about how assets can do the exact same thing, how they can evolve over time. And he kind of demonstrates this here through the BTC narrative that people have talked about. This is an actual interesting kind of study here showing back in 2018 how from 2009, Bitcoin had really gone from being known for the vast majority people from an E cache proof of concept. Right. The people who are involved in this had known about a lot of the original E cache projects that were created by a variety of people in the cryptocurrency space that currently work in crypto. Again, you have a lot of different people, Nick Sabil. You have people like David Charm and stuff who have been kind of from the early days here in E Cache Revolution, now going into a vast majority of people, almost a sense similar amount I did thinking Bitcoin is a censorship resistant eagled in 2018 or an uncorrelated financial asset. So a big change there in the sense of perspective, and you can see here how the general market that’s making up the investors and the traders are starting to take on a different perspective. So this is a very important thing to keep in mind when we talk about building a better stock to flow model, building one that is actually going to account for these changes. But also, again, compare it as well to different assets. So, again, the original stock flow model here. Right. Taking into account Bitcoin’s valuation. Again, this is taking in market value in this case over time. And notice as well, when we take a look here, right. There’s, again, these two emphasized points here of an evolution of an asset and comparing it to gold and silver. Notice how as we take a look, the price plotts here. It seems like there are these little clusters, right? So we’re starting to see this again, this this basically point chart here where we can see different clusters of valuations. And again, this is as we’re taking a look at a logarithmic chart, the differences and having events, but also these kind of seismic shifts in what Bitcoin really is, is an asset. So let’s go ahead and take a look at the final chart here, right? This is for the Bitcoin side. We don’t have the floor. This is the look at the final version. The second. This is the bitcoin clusters that we have here, again, is kind of rough estimates where we have these different charac categories. Proof of concept was the first wave, the second being payments, the third one being eagled, and fourth of financial assets in an uncorrelated financial asset for people to be able to hedge against central bank monetary policy and world events. And now they’ve got the final model here, again, keeping in mind the stock to flow at the bottom here. Right. This isn’t really valuating against time here. It’s taking in the market valuation to the stock to flow. A very interesting change. Again, the original model was looking at over time. Right. We started to see market valuations rise. In this case is the stock to flow was increasing. It was a different perspective. This is now taking a look at a linear line here. It really showcases how the stock to flow shows a ton of relevancy. That’s a pretty consecutive trend here, guys. If you take a look at these general plots, the averages between each for you’re having event here, the market valuation here, and you can see how silver and gold play along those lines. Gold and silver themselves have very different stock to flows, silvers, much more well produced. It’s used in a lot of industrial use cases, comparative to gold. And because of this. Right, we have a much larger supply silver. And that’s why it’s so much less valuable asset comp.. Gold. Same place true here for Bitcoin. Bitcoin right now is around one hundred, 140 billion dollars. So we can actually probably get the official figure here right now. One hundred sixty two is we have actually technically had some increase in price, but a hundred sixty two billion dollars is nothing compared to the over 10 trillion dollars or more in value locked in gold markets. There’s a reason for that because the stock to flow is not more optimal than gold yet. We’re getting there in the next four. You’re having event, we’ll be there. We’ll be at a better inflation rate in this case compared to gold, meaning that the new issuance of supply, a.k.a. the stacked floor model and the stock full model, again, is a measure in this case. How many years in this case it’s going to take for us to get back to the current existing supply in this case? Right. To basically to double the current existing supply. And we’re not there yet, but we’re getting there gold at the moment. He’s the best doctor flow model. And when we go through this next phase for Bitcoin, the next having a bit, it’s going to leap us further onto this line. It’s going to lead us to higher valuations. They probably test along the lines of, you know, something above probably above silver in this case. Right. But then when we get to gold, that’s going to be the interesting catch. Can, in the next four year cycle, can we pass gold? Can we have and maintain a better stocked flow model? Will it work for Bitcoin with miners receiving such a smaller reward? Well, the valuation B, I think that’s the interesting question here. But again, the takeaways here from the article, I recommend you guys dive through this. We’ll talk a little bit about this with Jackson later on. And I think he entered. It provides a really interesting perspective to it. All in all, here, the conclusion reads, In this case, I want to go ahead and just take this time to read through this in the article. Plan B solidifies the basis of the current stacked flow model by removing time and adding other assets, silver and gold, to the model. He calls this new model the BTC s to F model core across asset model the S to effects model S to effects model enables valuation of different assets like silver, gold and bitcoin with one formula. Plan B is explain the concept of phase transitions, phase transitions, introducing a new way to think about Bitcoin as an evolving asset. About Bitcoin and the stock flow model. It’s led to the creation of this existing model. The S2 effects model formula has a perfect fit for data ninety nine point seven or two in this case, again showcasing the consistency in this case of the data over time. When comparing it to other cross assets like gold and silver, there’s two effects model estimates. A market value of the next BTC phase or cluster BTC as to F will be about fifty six in 2020 or 2024. So this is going with the new model. Take 56 years in this case with the current creation pattern for Bitcoin to duplicate supply. Now it’s never going to do that. But again, that’s it’s showcasing that the current existing inflation rate would take 56 years. In this case of 5.5 trillion, translate into a Bitcoin price, given that 18 million Bitcoin of two hundred eighty eight thousand dollars. So he’s saying in this time period that we would get up to a valuation of 5.5 trillion. Now, again, I’ve emphasizing and having much more conservative estimations. But this is, of course, according to the current model that we have, and this is rooted in data science, which makes me sometimes down a little bit of my own kind of conservative skepticism on where backwards price could go. But the one thing that makes me think that this could be possible that a two hundred eighty eight thousand dollar Bitcoin could happen is a few reasons. One. Many of us thought 10K was the top and easily within a couple of days, it went to twenty thousand, doubling valuations from our current estimations that we had back in 2017. Bitcoin can go crazy. Bitcoin doesn’t give a damn right. But along with that as well. We’re talking about a very interesting macro environment surrounding this, having it bitcoin right now is one of the only assets that is up year to year in this case or is outperforming other assets to no avail. Right. There might be other markets. Equities might be up and stuff after Kalis amounts of central bank monetary policy. The Bitcoin is still leading the way. Now, I want to go ahead and dive into this conversation with Jackson. We have the sponsored interview with Caleb and Brown because we really talk a lot about what’s going on, the macro environment, how much is at stake in regards to the liquidity that is going to be moving outside of traditional markets that might possibly come into crypto markets and justify this 5.5 trillion dollar estimated valuation that Plan B is pointing to in its data science model. All right. So let’s go ahead and dive into the conversation with Jackson from Caleb Brown. All right, everyone. So in today’s sponsored interview, I’m sitting down with Jackson from Caleb Brown, who is one of my good friends out in Australia. We’ve not only had many conversations beforehand in person, but we also like to do these videos from time to time here in the channel where we get some perspective into the ROTC market and what Jackson’s been saying across the industry. So, Jackson, thank you, man. For me in a time it’s great to catch up with you, especially during all this craziness that’s going on in the world right now. Thanks for having me. It’s always great to be on the show. As a man, it’s a pleasure to have you on. So I wanted to go ahead and start off then, because I know you guys are working with a lot of institutional capital inflows into the ROTC markets. And I think with Koven 19, we’ve seen a massive shift in the perspective of where people are allocating capital. I’ve seen that in the original venture capital space. I’ve seen it not only in the broader crypto market, but also in asset markets like equities. So I’m curious to get from you as someone who’s kind of working in that industry from kind of a bird’s eye view, what kind of trends are you seeing right now? And kind of a post Koven 19 environment. Yes. So if we want to think about what’s going to happen post Koban 19 now we need to look at the situation in its entirety. And firstly, we’ve got right now a giant hole in incomes and balance sheets. Ray Dallier from Bridgewater Associates estimates that to be 20 trillion dollars. So basically, you’re going to have central banks. Deploying stimulus packages roughly within the vicinity of 20 trillion dollars in order to fill these holes. So that’s a guarantee of the value of money going down. Which means all asset managers worth a dime of now reassessing their strategies. Because with bonds, your you suddenly become an investment that’s returning increasingly worthless pieces of paper. So that’s a one hundred trillion dollar market getting reassessed. Equities are definitely getting reassessed. Right. Because companies are going under and now everyone needs to reassess. OK. Which which are the companies that are going to survive through this? Until now, Bitcoin has existed in kind of a zero sum game for the last two years. The last time we had new participants into the market, those twenty seventeen, when we had a lot of we had a little media frenzy and a lot of new people coming into the market. Since twenty eighteen to twenty nineteen started this, yeah, it’s basically been the same players in the space. It hasn’t been that much needed quite a distance, which means it’s a zero sum game to which we know there’s a loser. But now we’re in this situation where all of these traditional investors, which previously are in other asset classes, now have the opportunity to look at a kind of solution previously. And they look at Bitcoin as an alternative. Right, because they have an existing functional strategy. So they don’t need to assess Bitcoin as something that they need right there. And they look at it as a alternative investment that may produce an outperformance. However, now every asset manager is now thinking, OK, I’ve got a problem. Yeah. And I need to solve it. And what other tools at my disposal? And Bitcoin is shaping up very nicely to be a potential option for every investor in the world. Absolutely, Matt. You know, taking a step back to your point. Yes, I think you culminated pretty well. And this is something that I’ve tried to emphasize a lot in regards to the kind of cash shortage that we’ve seen across the world and how this is set up, the perfect environment for Bitcoin. You’re talking about equities, for example. Companies and their stocks have been able to rise as much as they have over the last decade, especially in U.S. markets, because of solid corporate earnings and therefore buyback programs into their own stock. Nice paying dividends and that’s kept up equity markets for a very long time. We are not going to see those same kind of buyback programs or same kind of dividends or same kind of corporate earnings for a very long time. You mention the bond market as well. As much about one hundred trillion dollar mark. If you take U.S. Treasuries and other government bonds from the EU to Asia. And you have this issue now where you’ve kind of got two problems here, you’ve got negative interest rates. And this case therefore pushing bond yields into negative territory where the holders are already being penalized to some degree. But you can have some price appreciation. But as you mentioned, a lot of that appreciation is going to be in fundamental basis, devalued by the excessive printing to the tune of 20 trillion dollars between, you know, the Fed, ECB, the Bank of Japan. And now we have this asset like Bitcoin that sure doesn’t yield you anything, but it can’t be printed into oblivion and it doesn’t penalize you for holding it. And it’s completely out of the whim of these central banks. That is kind of correlated markets that have to deal with central bank monetary policy and government fiscal policy. Do you guys see in this case that there’s a kind of a new wave of investors coming that see Bitcoin as this kind of potential store value to hedge towards? Yeah, absolutely. So that’s that’s what we were getting at. Bitcoin has declined 10 years old, which means the entirety of its life. It has only existed within the macro bull market and it was designed to be a hedge against the financial existing system. So now we are in a position where there are people who previously were not considering Bitcoin. Now forced to consider it. And I guess we’ll see this through Google Trend Analytics. And perhaps if you have an increase of new viewers for us, we’re certainly seeing not a dramatic but definitely a significant increase in new sign ups to our business that are first time crypto investors. Yeah. The thing that trend is. Yeah, I think that trend is going to continue to grow because you’ve just had Andreessen Horowitz, one, announce that they’ve they’ve beaten out their raised target of 450 million dollars and they’ve just created a new fund for five hundred and fifteen million dollars. And there are a number of funds across the world that are saying that there’s a lot more investor interest. Absolutely, Matt. Yeah. You know, just to your comment earlier, it’s that it’s a bit difficult for me as a YouTube to see whether or not we get new users and stuff in the space. But we’ve definitely seen a bump up in the View counts, subscriber counts going up a little bit as well. So it means a little bit of new users coming in. And as you mentioned, you know, you’ve got all these massive v.C funds that are now stepping back in and starting to raise huge rounds and now starting to set allocated amounts of capital. And you saw Andriessen come out with very big piece that they wrote a while back and stuff talked about it’s time to innervates, time to, you know, kind of look at the current situation that we’re in right now where people aren’t able to get money when they need it. The companies can’t get loans when they need it. Individuals here in the US. You know, one of the richest countries in the world and stuff, we can’t get money out to people when they need it. So it shows that the payment rails and the networks we’re using right now are flawed. But I think, again, it it goes much deeper to that Jackson, not only just in the sense of the chance for a lot of innovative sectors within the cryptocurrency space, but also just that simple store value argument where, again, even though as many people have kind of debated about, I think a lot of people view store value as something that holds your wealth exactly the same valuation you put into it. But my opinion is, at the end of the day, I think to some other people that it’s supposed to be serving as a hedge in this case, where the vast majority times when you enter into it, you can either get your money back or in this case, you can get a larger return for your money back. That is hedged against the policies of central banks and things like that. But I think you’re very right. I think we’re stepping in this time with Bitcoin for the first time is actually living through a recession and what might be become a depression if this stagnation kind of continues. If you don’t see the same kind of growth bounce back and that kind of v shaped recovery. Yeah, absolutely. We are seeing a small recovery in the traditional markets at the moment, which is quite strange, right, because we’re seeing unemployment numbers go through the roof. But somehow the stock market has made a nicely shaped recovery. That’s true for that’s true for the US. That’s also kind of true for the Australian stock market. But in reality, it’s uncertainty. And I believe it’s it’s actually devaluation of money to some degree when you have printing of money. You’re expecting inflation. So are you expecting the price of goods and services to go up? Because we’re in a lockdown situation where everyone’s sitting at home. I’m not spending on goods, not spending on services, going to restaurants to the real economy is not actually receiving any of that stimulus money. So at the end of the day, the people receiving the stimulus checks, the expenses have gone down. Right. If you’re lucky enough to have the savings from your expenses gone down and now suddenly you have additional capital that you can allocate to the financial markets and that could have something to do with this, what I believe to be a temporary V shaped recovery. But this net, most macro economists are comparing this to the 1930s Great Depression rather than the 2008 financial crisis where we had relatively quick recovery from. Yeah, absolutely. To build on that, Jacs. And I think what you’re going to see here is, as I kind of talked a little bit better earlier, you’ll see that kind of bump, that recovery in GDP. You’ll see some people going back to work. The total kind of like long lasting unemployment starting to decline. But I think that you’re going to remain over double digit territory here in the US and a lot of other countries across the world for a very long period time. And that’s going to have a dent. I think eventually it will have a dent possibly on financial markets. But above all, in the real world economy and this the sad thing is, is that central bank monetary policy taking this next step into negative interest rates, infinite QE, as the US and Japan is already quoted, you know, in a literal sense, they’re really going to print as much as required. You’re going to see that the average American or the average participant, this case, even Australia, who has a few thousand dollars in their savings, that they’re going start being penalised for owning those dollars in their savings account, that they’re going to start seeing a lot less purchasing power. And again, I think this is where Bitcoin comes in is a very healthy new asset during this time, where people can if they choose to get some exposure to this new asset class. And I’m happy to hear that you guys see that kind of new wave of participants coming, because I think I mean, what we saw in twenty seventeen, I think isn’t even compare to what we see this time, or maybe not in the sense of percentage gains, but in a sense, the scale of the rub in the amount of people this market starts to get interested. Yeah, absolutely. In terms of replicating the percentage gains, it’s a lot harder because now we’re a larger market cap. However, I definitely think in terms of the number of participants entering the space, that’s going to be kind of dramatically different from what we saw three years ago. Absolutely. Does. The other thing is we’re timing this quite perfectly with the harvesting that and with institutional money down, there’s kind of two models that they respect more for Bitcoin because they don’t like to look at technical analysis. So the first is the shock ratio, which is your average annual returns divided by the maximum annual loss. Asset class can face. And when everybody’s reassessing their portfolio, as you’re going to have gold at zero point to the S&P 500, roughly around the same. Treasury bonds look a bit better. They have somewhere about point eight. But Bitcoin is right now completely off the charts with a two point four percent Sharpe ratio. Usually you never see this. So I find it very difficult for oh, I imagine it would be very difficult for asset managers to ignore this asset class. The other model that they respect, which is quite new for Bitcoin, is the stock to fly model. And that was kind of we’ve just crossed a one year birthday for the stock to fly model being kind of publicly assessed. And Plan B has actually recently upgraded 10 that write to the first person who applied the stock model stock to fly model to Bitcoin is recently reassessed that situation and determine that Bitcoin has evolved through its lifespan and basically started off as a proof of concept. And this will add a one million dollar market cap because that’s what the concept is worth. Then it kind of evolves. The narrative evolves around, okay, we’re going to use Bitcoin for payments. That’s why it has something around like 60 million dollar market cap. And then the narrative change as we as new technologies and measure, we discover becomes a bit slower. But that’s fine. We’re going to use it as digital go. Right now, that suddenly has a store value narrative. And therefore, let’s go to another higher market cap. And as the narrative changes, he he believes that we’re dealing with an entirely different asset each time. And what that’s enabled him to do is plot out the stuff to float model. But as a comparison against other asset classes. So it was he’s now comparing Bitcoin as a concept with Bitcoin, as a digital gold with Bitcoin is a financial asset versus silver and gold. And what’s been fantastic about that previously is stop the flow model only describes the well, it only projects the price as an extrapolation out of time. So say, okay, we have this sort of flow model. Therefore, asset flow decreases. We should see a higher price. Now he’s using interpolation because he’s able to use the stock to fly model of silver and gold to compare with Bitcoin, because right now it takes a lot longer to create to replicate the stock of gold. And same with silver. So therefore, it’s got a high end market cap that Bitcoin is now using that he’s basically increased the data. So he’s now projecting the price of Bitcoin using interpellation rather than extrapolation, a simplified way to assess. This is kind of like saying, OK, I’ve got I’ve got some watches on the high end. I’ve got to fix a leak that’s worth one hundred thousand dollars. And then I’ve got a Casio, which is worth 100 hundred bucks somewhere in the middle. You’ve got an Amiga which is worth a few thousand dollars. And you can kind of reliably assess the value of that much based on the high end and the low end of the data set. Whereas so now we’ve got kind of a this concept of the low end gold on the high end and now we’re able to predict a more reliable projection for the Bitcoin prices using the stock workflow process. And it’s an interesting kind of approach and stuff because, again, I think there haven’t been any major significant changes to the stock to flow model for quite some time. You know, I think around 2017 was really, really starting to get picked up. There’s been a lot of people watching it for some time. But I think Plan B evolving into this kind of comparison to different assets in this case, especially gold, is going to give us a lot more perspective into the kind of of the kind of the relevancy in this case to the having only to the having, but also into the stock to flow in this case. So I’m interested to see I’ll probably put up a chart so you guys can see it in this case, just to kind of demonstrate the difference from the trade that you probably already seen. But, you know, Jackson. Have you seen basically anyone take more of a liking to Bitcoin now with this evolution in the stock to flow model? Do you think this kind of new adjustment is probably much better than the original model we had before? It’s quite hard to say. I can definitely say that there is a lot of talk around this model in the fund management space. It’s yet, like you said, it’s rare that we get new things to talk about because it is such a new asset class and there’s very little data. So. When when there’s something new and exciting like this, it kind of circulates a lot and I think it might have something to do with the price action of the last couple of days because it’s the medium posted come out April twenty eight and then the day later, we have a nice rally on Bitcoin so that, I believe, had something to do with it. But yeah, yeah, I think the only thing we can say is there is there’s consistent growth in the narrative around Bitcoin and the institutional acceptance of it as a acceptable financial asset. It’s now a mature asset that that is it’s just a, you know, uncertain kind of new piece of technology. Absolutely. I think it’s going much more from a speculative phase to becoming a maturing asset. And I think the moment, you know, one thing I always bring back to people back to and stuff for me, the thing that got me back into really wanting to learn about Bitcoin ever since I first heard about 2011 was when in 2016 it came back to its all time highs. When I went back to eleven hundred, for me, that was the kind of mom or I was like, OK, I need to look into this. And I needed to really understand it. And I think you’re going to have that exact same reaction when Bitcoin gets back above to twenty thousand. Of course, for us, you know, for in the space right now, we know about the anticipation is we know what the fundamentals are. But I think, you know, I’d be curious to get your opinion on it. Jackson, would you would you agree with me that when we get to that point in twenty thousand, I think, as you mentioned, people are going to start looking at the models, they’re going to start looking at the fundamentals of Bitcoin and really start to consider this as a, you know, an asset that goes in people’s portfolios, especially as we’d be approaching, you know, a short there shortly thereafter. If we start going to, you know, 50, 60, 70, 80 thousand for Bitcoin or up to one hundred thousand, we’d be well over trillion dollar market cap. Yeah, absolutely. Because what happens as well is when you have an all time high, the environment you’re in is actually every purchaser who currently owns the asset is in profit. So they don’t have they don’t have cell pressure. They don’t have panic, sell pressure, basically. So any additional limit, all of us that get placed above that are from people who would like to incrementally capture profits. Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a store of value and therefore it’s not while it is used that way. It will be decreasing the amount of people who try to trade it for short term profits. Absolutely. To give that in mind, it’s stuff you’re talking about more of the liquidity in this case, having a long term focus rather than what would be kind of short term trading. And I think that’s again, what happens with most markets is you get a maturing as valuations rise, your percentage returns per cycle usually go down, but there’s a lot less volatility that follows. That’s one thing we were writing about an hour in our newsletter for the channel stuff. I talked basically about, you know, declining volatility usually means declining returns as markets mature. And this will be really sad to see. I completely agree with you, Jack. I think you’re going to see this kind of trend of more people focusing on the long term, more people focusing and understanding some of the fundamentals of the supply schedule. Because the thing I keep emphasizing, I know a lot of people talk about the having being priced in, but it’s the reason why back and for example, the first or second having Bitcoin wasn’t at a million dollars is because most people don’t understand what Bitcoin is. And they sure as hell don’t understand what’s going on with having model and stopped flow model that we have. So I think, again, if we’re here right now, we’re on the cutting edge of a lot of interesting stuff. But I want to go ahead and just kind of ask you, in this case, Jack, seeing a lot of people might be looking to make that kind of first position, they might be interested in getting some exposure to space. How do they go about doing an ITC order and how do they really know the RTC is right for them? Yes. So the great thing about Caleb and Brown is that every single investor likes to get on the phone and speak to their personal broker and have a conversation with them and ask him all the questions that they need to ask. That is the fundamental difference in our service. Then an exchange where you will need to execute those orders yourself. You need to kind of go through that learning curve on your own. We’re here to guide every single investor right along that process and help them out with any questions, any technical difficulties, as well as help them set up with a strategy and make sure that they follow through with their own strategy. One of the things that investors are very prone to is foma. And it’s it’s that it’s the rational thing to do to buy low. Sell high. However. It’s very uncomfortable buying into the price. It’s dropping. Right. Right. So we’ll sit down with the with the customer, will understand the needs, understand that plan, and then we follow up with them and we make sure that every step of the way that they go about this with the original strategy that they set in place. And then another benefit is that we treat you as a business relationship. So we were able to provide you with all the benefits that kind of the larger players get to receive as we’re able to let you into the market before we receive the funds. If you provide a proof of payments, so then that way to really all it’s all day, you’re able to benefit from the volatility. By capturing a low price and skipping that one to three business day that it takes for banking funds to clear the awesome. And so in this case, you get to able you’re able to have someone on the line, which I’ve never had with an exchange. And along with that as well, you’re able to lock in prices and not have to worry about the long wait times of bank transfers. Jack, that seems really exciting, man. I’m glad you could provide some of those kind of details. And for those out there who are interested. Feel free to check out the link, download the description if you guys are interested in exploring LTC services with Kailasam Brown. I’ve known the guys for a very long time. And, you know, just I think from the conversation we’ve had, Jackson, I mean, there’s so many interesting components and things going on at the moment. I mean, this has been the macro environment that a lot of us and the crypto space had been not so much waiting for. You know, I don’t really live for this world. I don’t want to see some of the disaster that’s going on right now. And then also to match with that the economic kind of mess that we’re getting ourselves into a central bank policy. But it’s going to be very interesting to see how this all plays out over the next coming months and how Krypto over the next couple of years, I think starts to really play a role as a major world asset in us. So I got to say thank you, man, for coming on and, you know, kind of joining this conversation. It’s been awesome to get some your insight into the market. And if you guys are interested, please, like I said, go check out the link down below. Go learn more about Jackson. The team grew up a great group of guys and stuff, and we’ll see you hopefully sometime soon. Another video. Jackson, thanks for coming on, man. Thanks for having me next. Always been great.

Via https://www.cryptosharks.net/bitcoin-rallies-halving-anticipation-has-begun/

source https://cryptosharks.weebly.com/blog/bitcoin-rallies-to-9400-the-halving-anticipation-has-begun

[scottmapess]

Bitcoin Rallies To $9,400 | The Halving Anticipation Has Begun

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Well, it’s going on, everyone, my name is Nicholas Merton here, a dated Ash in today’s May 1st of 2020. Well, folks, I hope you are having a fantastic day wherever you are. And in today’s video, we’ve got a lot of things to discuss from Bitcoin’s price continuing to surge upward towards ninety four hundred dollars correcting over the last couple of hours, down to eighty eight hundred. However, all in all, holding the vast majority of its gains and looking like it might be going for more going into having it in mid-May. But outside of this as well, we’ve also got some really big developments in regards to the data science community for Bitcoin as the famed stock to flow model has gotten a reiteration from its original creator, Plan B. It talks about comparing Bitcoin not only as an evolving asset over time, but also comparing it to gold and silver within the stopped flow model. So going to be diving into all this and more especially as we go through our sponsored interview with Jackson from Kilbane Brown. Well, we dive deeper into this conversation of the new stock to flow model, as well as taking a look into what’s happening in regard to O.S.S. markets and institutional capital as we go through this major transformative shift between markets during all of the craziness with kov itself. We’ve got lots of things to discuss. Let’s not push off any longer. Dive right in to the video. So take a look across the board here for cryptocurrency markets, we can see the vast majority Kuprin currencies are urchin scenario right now between one to two percent. And again, this is just over the last 24 hours. But if we take a step back here, you can obviously see here over the last couple of days, guys, the cryptocurrency markets have been doing great. They’ve been phenomenally outpacing pretty much any market across the world. And we’ve started to really go vertical, as we talked about over the last few weeks as we started to recover here. And a lot of people were talking about Bitcoin going down to 6000 or 5000, you know, kind of earlier on before the having of it. Again, playing into the theory we had for a very long time here that valuations were going to rise in anticipation of the having of it. Now, I think a lot of this actually has to do is Jackson. I actually talk about in our interview later on into the new evaluation of the stock to flow model. And it’s a really interesting perspective. I want to spend some time diving into it, but I want to spend a little bit of time taking a look at this price action because we just reached our price target yesterday of around the upper nine thousand dollar range, around ninety five hundred dollars. Now, again, I don’t think we got exactly the ninety five hundred dollars or a few dollars short or in that case. And again, that’s always a point to most people out there can never be as greedy, be a little less greedy than the other person. A sense of your expectations always have your levels a little bit lower than those big evens. But all in all here, guys, this is basically what we’ve been theorizing. It’s been a lot faster than what I always thought about. I think the big mistake I always tend to make, and I think that a lot of people make in the space is we don’t anticipate how fast Bitcoin can move up. It can make these very stark moves very quickly. But again, volume was really nice. That was one of my big complaints. Still today is we started to make a higher move in price. But as we continued throughout the day, we really started to see here. We can take a look at B Allex. The volume came as spin or that one of the biggest spot voting days since back here and late March. So this is really good to see as we continue with the price. We’re seeing matching volume here. And again, I want to see a continuation of this across exchanges. But all in all, here, this is really good to see. We’re seeing as confidence and price. It looks like we’re holding here, even though we had a little bit of a pullback here. It seems like prices are holding the vast majority, the gains, and they’re looking like they want to recover and continue higher. You get a lot of these cattle’s with tall weeks’s or basically price eventually comes back on the next day. So in this case, I’m confident what we’re seeing. And I think, you know, again, being realistic here, I think the only thing we need to look at here is our Bitstamp chart here, that when we go ahead, pull it up here. Here we go. When you U.S. dollar. So basically, it’s going to go to just the chart here. We got to go to logarithmic and we’ve got a little bit of range that we could still see here going into May. And again, I think the highest level here is going to be somewhere in the upper nine thousand dollar range to ten thousand at max. But I’m not calling for anything too dramatic right now. I think we’ve seen the vast majority of this rally here. I know some people are calling for a breakthrough and having a bit above the line of resistance where we would basically start to climb higher. And here’s my only possibility. The only possible theory I have here in regards to that happening, we would have a continued rally here over the next week or so where we would break up above 10000. We break above these previous relative highs back here throughout 2019. And we would start our process of resting alongside the long line and resistance here and continuing higher as we go into the next coming months. OK, so it would be a multi month process here like we saw with gold, where prices rest along a lot of resistance, make it support and signify that we’re not going down the lower levels and we continue higher. Again, I don’t want to go ahead and make that that yet. I’m not going to try to make that call. But I will say here, I’m not really getting bearish on this until we start to see a day or two worth of downward price action. Again, you can set your stops. If you guys want a shot, possibly try to make that trade. We think it’s going to come down somewhere around six to seven thousand after the having event. You can do that again. It depends on what kind of you know, are you an investor, a trader? You just simply long term. Holdings is something we’re going to talk about in our newsletter, where, again, you really need to determine what you are as an individual. You are a trader investor in this market. Now, two of the things that just want to talk about before we dive in the stock flow model, a theorem, as well as the broader Auckland market, looking like it’s building into a wedge here for break out into the summer. Again, I always try to keep my estimates conservative. You guys know I’m exposed to all points, but warned me right now I’m going to be realistic with you. I don’t think we’re going to see a massive breakout. I also don’t think we’re going to see a massive sell off and all coins. But here’s my point. You can see here between a theory and one of the largest crypto currencies. And also, if we take a look at Bitcoin or Auckland dominance in this case, that we’re building a general wedge of higher lows and lower highs. And again, I think this is going to build into a technical pattern that’s going to help set us up into breaking into the longer term wedge and really spawning the next cycle for assets like a theorem and other crypto currencies other than Bitcoin. So, again, after the 90 percent correction means here, we got the double bottom here on the weekly chart. And now we’re building into the technical pattern to really signify that we’re ready for higher moves. So I thought I’d just toss and then show you guys again, you won’t get this looking at the hourly chart. Again, the thing I always emphasize, look at the daily, the weekly and the monthly. Those are the time frames you guys should be focusing on. The vast majority people should be focusing on whatever your trading style is. All right. So let’s go ahead and talk a little bit about this new stock to flow model that Plan B has put together. And again, if you guys haven’t already. You guys should follow plan B on Twitter and stuff. It’s a really interesting character and stuff. I’ve I have some individuals I know who have worked in the data science community who know that Plan B and they they share their data science models are really interesting. Awesome guys who are just always contributing to the space. So let’s just go ahead and talk a little bit about the current stock to flow model that existed beforehand. So the stock to flow model originally that was created by Plan B and then it’s been kind of model. It’s been modified a little bit as time progresses. It basically showcases here how bitcoin over time as we start to go through these adjusted periods where we have having event come through every about four years and crypto markets, how we see price correlate in kind of a a waxing waning or a kind of, you know, peak and trough around this general fair value range for the stock to flow model. And we can see as time progresses, as we go through these having events, whether it’s a little bit beforehand or a little bit afterwards, we see price resurge to new highs. All right. So this is the current flow model and it’s played a lot of relevancy. It’s probably one of the very few models. And I just want to emphasize the significance and congrats to Plan B on this. It’s been one of the most valuable models here, taking one of those fundamental aspects of Bitcoin that actual institutional investors care about. If we’re talking about people who are deploying, you know, tens, if not hundreds of millions of dollars, if not billions of dollars of capital to the cryptocurrency space. This is the model they care about. OK. So that holds a lot of relevancy. And when Plan B put this new model together that we’re gonna be talking about, it probably plays a very big role into why we’re seeing a lot of confidence coming in cryptocurrency markets. It really puts it in to an interesting perspective. Now, in this model, we’re simply just taking a look at Bitcoin evolving in a sense, what’s price over time, through out having events. And it’s a great model, but it doesn’t really help us see Bitcoin as a broader asset in the world. And it also does it tell us the story about how Bitcoin as an asset has evolved. A lot of people, including Plan B, hold a very solid theory that as time progresses, Bitcoin has become a changing asset even over the last decade. The perspective of Bitcoin is has changed a lot in this short period of time. And he taught it to talks about this. The term a phase transitions. So this basically talks about how, you know, you got to use the example here of how, for example, water can go from a solid to a liquid to a gas to ionized in this case. Right. So, again, the different states of matter. Right. Is this as an analogy? But he talks about how assets can do the exact same thing, how they can evolve over time. And he kind of demonstrates this here through the BTC narrative that people have talked about. This is an actual interesting kind of study here showing back in 2018 how from 2009, Bitcoin had really gone from being known for the vast majority people from an E cache proof of concept. Right. The people who are involved in this had known about a lot of the original E cache projects that were created by a variety of people in the cryptocurrency space that currently work in crypto. Again, you have a lot of different people, Nick Sabil. You have people like David Charm and stuff who have been kind of from the early days here in E Cache Revolution, now going into a vast majority of people, almost a sense similar amount I did thinking Bitcoin is a censorship resistant eagled in 2018 or an uncorrelated financial asset. So a big change there in the sense of perspective, and you can see here how the general market that’s making up the investors and the traders are starting to take on a different perspective. So this is a very important thing to keep in mind when we talk about building a better stock to flow model, building one that is actually going to account for these changes. But also, again, compare it as well to different assets. So, again, the original stock flow model here. Right. Taking into account Bitcoin’s valuation. Again, this is taking in market value in this case over time. And notice as well, when we take a look here, right. There’s, again, these two emphasized points here of an evolution of an asset and comparing it to gold and silver. Notice how as we take a look, the price plotts here. It seems like there are these little clusters, right? So we’re starting to see this again, this this basically point chart here where we can see different clusters of valuations. And again, this is as we’re taking a look at a logarithmic chart, the differences and having events, but also these kind of seismic shifts in what Bitcoin really is, is an asset. So let’s go ahead and take a look at the final chart here, right? This is for the Bitcoin side. We don’t have the floor. This is the look at the final version. The second. This is the bitcoin clusters that we have here, again, is kind of rough estimates where we have these different charac categories. Proof of concept was the first wave, the second being payments, the third one being eagled, and fourth of financial assets in an uncorrelated financial asset for people to be able to hedge against central bank monetary policy and world events. And now they’ve got the final model here, again, keeping in mind the stock to flow at the bottom here. Right. This isn’t really valuating against time here. It’s taking in the market valuation to the stock to flow. A very interesting change. Again, the original model was looking at over time. Right. We started to see market valuations rise. In this case is the stock to flow was increasing. It was a different perspective. This is now taking a look at a linear line here. It really showcases how the stock to flow shows a ton of relevancy. That’s a pretty consecutive trend here, guys. If you take a look at these general plots, the averages between each for you’re having event here, the market valuation here, and you can see how silver and gold play along those lines. Gold and silver themselves have very different stock to flows, silvers, much more well produced. It’s used in a lot of industrial use cases, comparative to gold. And because of this. Right, we have a much larger supply silver. And that’s why it’s so much less valuable asset comp.. Gold. Same place true here for Bitcoin. Bitcoin right now is around one hundred, 140 billion dollars. So we can actually probably get the official figure here right now. One hundred sixty two is we have actually technically had some increase in price, but a hundred sixty two billion dollars is nothing compared to the over 10 trillion dollars or more in value locked in gold markets. There’s a reason for that because the stock to flow is not more optimal than gold yet. We’re getting there in the next four. You’re having event, we’ll be there. We’ll be at a better inflation rate in this case compared to gold, meaning that the new issuance of supply, a.k.a. the stacked floor model and the stock full model, again, is a measure in this case. How many years in this case it’s going to take for us to get back to the current existing supply in this case? Right. To basically to double the current existing supply. And we’re not there yet, but we’re getting there gold at the moment. He’s the best doctor flow model. And when we go through this next phase for Bitcoin, the next having a bit, it’s going to leap us further onto this line. It’s going to lead us to higher valuations. They probably test along the lines of, you know, something above probably above silver in this case. Right. But then when we get to gold, that’s going to be the interesting catch. Can, in the next four year cycle, can we pass gold? Can we have and maintain a better stocked flow model? Will it work for Bitcoin with miners receiving such a smaller reward? Well, the valuation B, I think that’s the interesting question here. But again, the takeaways here from the article, I recommend you guys dive through this. We’ll talk a little bit about this with Jackson later on. And I think he entered. It provides a really interesting perspective to it. All in all, here, the conclusion reads, In this case, I want to go ahead and just take this time to read through this in the article. Plan B solidifies the basis of the current stacked flow model by removing time and adding other assets, silver and gold, to the model. He calls this new model the BTC s to F model core across asset model the S to effects model S to effects model enables valuation of different assets like silver, gold and bitcoin with one formula. Plan B is explain the concept of phase transitions, phase transitions, introducing a new way to think about Bitcoin as an evolving asset. About Bitcoin and the stock flow model. It’s led to the creation of this existing model. The S2 effects model formula has a perfect fit for data ninety nine point seven or two in this case, again showcasing the consistency in this case of the data over time. When comparing it to other cross assets like gold and silver, there’s two effects model estimates. A market value of the next BTC phase or cluster BTC as to F will be about fifty six in 2020 or 2024. So this is going with the new model. Take 56 years in this case with the current creation pattern for Bitcoin to duplicate supply. Now it’s never going to do that. But again, that’s it’s showcasing that the current existing inflation rate would take 56 years. In this case of 5.5 trillion, translate into a Bitcoin price, given that 18 million Bitcoin of two hundred eighty eight thousand dollars. So he’s saying in this time period that we would get up to a valuation of 5.5 trillion. Now, again, I’ve emphasizing and having much more conservative estimations. But this is, of course, according to the current model that we have, and this is rooted in data science, which makes me sometimes down a little bit of my own kind of conservative skepticism on where backwards price could go. But the one thing that makes me think that this could be possible that a two hundred eighty eight thousand dollar Bitcoin could happen is a few reasons. One. Many of us thought 10K was the top and easily within a couple of days, it went to twenty thousand, doubling valuations from our current estimations that we had back in 2017. Bitcoin can go crazy. Bitcoin doesn’t give a damn right. But along with that as well. We’re talking about a very interesting macro environment surrounding this, having it bitcoin right now is one of the only assets that is up year to year in this case or is outperforming other assets to no avail. Right. There might be other markets. Equities might be up and stuff after Kalis amounts of central bank monetary policy. The Bitcoin is still leading the way. Now, I want to go ahead and dive into this conversation with Jackson. We have the sponsored interview with Caleb and Brown because we really talk a lot about what’s going on, the macro environment, how much is at stake in regards to the liquidity that is going to be moving outside of traditional markets that might possibly come into crypto markets and justify this 5.5 trillion dollar estimated valuation that Plan B is pointing to in its data science model. All right. So let’s go ahead and dive into the conversation with Jackson from Caleb Brown. All right, everyone. So in today’s sponsored interview, I’m sitting down with Jackson from Caleb Brown, who is one of my good friends out in Australia. We’ve not only had many conversations beforehand in person, but we also like to do these videos from time to time here in the channel where we get some perspective into the ROTC market and what Jackson’s been saying across the industry. So, Jackson, thank you, man. For me in a time it’s great to catch up with you, especially during all this craziness that’s going on in the world right now. Thanks for having me. It’s always great to be on the show. As a man, it’s a pleasure to have you on. So I wanted to go ahead and start off then, because I know you guys are working with a lot of institutional capital inflows into the ROTC markets. And I think with Koven 19, we’ve seen a massive shift in the perspective of where people are allocating capital. I’ve seen that in the original venture capital space. I’ve seen it not only in the broader crypto market, but also in asset markets like equities. So I’m curious to get from you as someone who’s kind of working in that industry from kind of a bird’s eye view, what kind of trends are you seeing right now? And kind of a post Koven 19 environment. Yes. So if we want to think about what’s going to happen post Koban 19 now we need to look at the situation in its entirety. And firstly, we’ve got right now a giant hole in incomes and balance sheets. Ray Dallier from Bridgewater Associates estimates that to be 20 trillion dollars. So basically, you’re going to have central banks. Deploying stimulus packages roughly within the vicinity of 20 trillion dollars in order to fill these holes. So that’s a guarantee of the value of money going down. Which means all asset managers worth a dime of now reassessing their strategies. Because with bonds, your you suddenly become an investment that’s returning increasingly worthless pieces of paper. So that’s a one hundred trillion dollar market getting reassessed. Equities are definitely getting reassessed. Right. Because companies are going under and now everyone needs to reassess. OK. Which which are the companies that are going to survive through this? Until now, Bitcoin has existed in kind of a zero sum game for the last two years. The last time we had new participants into the market, those twenty seventeen, when we had a lot of we had a little media frenzy and a lot of new people coming into the market. Since twenty eighteen to twenty nineteen started this, yeah, it’s basically been the same players in the space. It hasn’t been that much needed quite a distance, which means it’s a zero sum game to which we know there’s a loser. But now we’re in this situation where all of these traditional investors, which previously are in other asset classes, now have the opportunity to look at a kind of solution previously. And they look at Bitcoin as an alternative. Right, because they have an existing functional strategy. So they don’t need to assess Bitcoin as something that they need right there. And they look at it as a alternative investment that may produce an outperformance. However, now every asset manager is now thinking, OK, I’ve got a problem. Yeah. And I need to solve it. And what other tools at my disposal? And Bitcoin is shaping up very nicely to be a potential option for every investor in the world. Absolutely, Matt. You know, taking a step back to your point. Yes, I think you culminated pretty well. And this is something that I’ve tried to emphasize a lot in regards to the kind of cash shortage that we’ve seen across the world and how this is set up, the perfect environment for Bitcoin. You’re talking about equities, for example. Companies and their stocks have been able to rise as much as they have over the last decade, especially in U.S. markets, because of solid corporate earnings and therefore buyback programs into their own stock. Nice paying dividends and that’s kept up equity markets for a very long time. We are not going to see those same kind of buyback programs or same kind of dividends or same kind of corporate earnings for a very long time. You mention the bond market as well. As much about one hundred trillion dollar mark. If you take U.S. Treasuries and other government bonds from the EU to Asia. And you have this issue now where you’ve kind of got two problems here, you’ve got negative interest rates. And this case therefore pushing bond yields into negative territory where the holders are already being penalized to some degree. But you can have some price appreciation. But as you mentioned, a lot of that appreciation is going to be in fundamental basis, devalued by the excessive printing to the tune of 20 trillion dollars between, you know, the Fed, ECB, the Bank of Japan. And now we have this asset like Bitcoin that sure doesn’t yield you anything, but it can’t be printed into oblivion and it doesn’t penalize you for holding it. And it’s completely out of the whim of these central banks. That is kind of correlated markets that have to deal with central bank monetary policy and government fiscal policy. Do you guys see in this case that there’s a kind of a new wave of investors coming that see Bitcoin as this kind of potential store value to hedge towards? Yeah, absolutely. So that’s that’s what we were getting at. Bitcoin has declined 10 years old, which means the entirety of its life. It has only existed within the macro bull market and it was designed to be a hedge against the financial existing system. So now we are in a position where there are people who previously were not considering Bitcoin. Now forced to consider it. And I guess we’ll see this through Google Trend Analytics. And perhaps if you have an increase of new viewers for us, we’re certainly seeing not a dramatic but definitely a significant increase in new sign ups to our business that are first time crypto investors. Yeah. The thing that trend is. Yeah, I think that trend is going to continue to grow because you’ve just had Andreessen Horowitz, one, announce that they’ve they’ve beaten out their raised target of 450 million dollars and they’ve just created a new fund for five hundred and fifteen million dollars. And there are a number of funds across the world that are saying that there’s a lot more investor interest. Absolutely, Matt. Yeah. You know, just to your comment earlier, it’s that it’s a bit difficult for me as a YouTube to see whether or not we get new users and stuff in the space. But we’ve definitely seen a bump up in the View counts, subscriber counts going up a little bit as well. So it means a little bit of new users coming in. And as you mentioned, you know, you’ve got all these massive v.C funds that are now stepping back in and starting to raise huge rounds and now starting to set allocated amounts of capital. And you saw Andriessen come out with very big piece that they wrote a while back and stuff talked about it’s time to innervates, time to, you know, kind of look at the current situation that we’re in right now where people aren’t able to get money when they need it. The companies can’t get loans when they need it. Individuals here in the US. You know, one of the richest countries in the world and stuff, we can’t get money out to people when they need it. So it shows that the payment rails and the networks we’re using right now are flawed. But I think, again, it it goes much deeper to that Jackson, not only just in the sense of the chance for a lot of innovative sectors within the cryptocurrency space, but also just that simple store value argument where, again, even though as many people have kind of debated about, I think a lot of people view store value as something that holds your wealth exactly the same valuation you put into it. But my opinion is, at the end of the day, I think to some other people that it’s supposed to be serving as a hedge in this case, where the vast majority times when you enter into it, you can either get your money back or in this case, you can get a larger return for your money back. That is hedged against the policies of central banks and things like that. But I think you’re very right. I think we’re stepping in this time with Bitcoin for the first time is actually living through a recession and what might be become a depression if this stagnation kind of continues. If you don’t see the same kind of growth bounce back and that kind of v shaped recovery. Yeah, absolutely. We are seeing a small recovery in the traditional markets at the moment, which is quite strange, right, because we’re seeing unemployment numbers go through the roof. But somehow the stock market has made a nicely shaped recovery. That’s true for that’s true for the US. That’s also kind of true for the Australian stock market. But in reality, it’s uncertainty. And I believe it’s it’s actually devaluation of money to some degree when you have printing of money. You’re expecting inflation. So are you expecting the price of goods and services to go up? Because we’re in a lockdown situation where everyone’s sitting at home. I’m not spending on goods, not spending on services, going to restaurants to the real economy is not actually receiving any of that stimulus money. So at the end of the day, the people receiving the stimulus checks, the expenses have gone down. Right. If you’re lucky enough to have the savings from your expenses gone down and now suddenly you have additional capital that you can allocate to the financial markets and that could have something to do with this, what I believe to be a temporary V shaped recovery. But this net, most macro economists are comparing this to the 1930s Great Depression rather than the 2008 financial crisis where we had relatively quick recovery from. Yeah, absolutely. To build on that, Jacs. And I think what you’re going to see here is, as I kind of talked a little bit better earlier, you’ll see that kind of bump, that recovery in GDP. You’ll see some people going back to work. The total kind of like long lasting unemployment starting to decline. But I think that you’re going to remain over double digit territory here in the US and a lot of other countries across the world for a very long period time. And that’s going to have a dent. I think eventually it will have a dent possibly on financial markets. But above all, in the real world economy and this the sad thing is, is that central bank monetary policy taking this next step into negative interest rates, infinite QE, as the US and Japan is already quoted, you know, in a literal sense, they’re really going to print as much as required. You’re going to see that the average American or the average participant, this case, even Australia, who has a few thousand dollars in their savings, that they’re going start being penalised for owning those dollars in their savings account, that they’re going to start seeing a lot less purchasing power. And again, I think this is where Bitcoin comes in is a very healthy new asset during this time, where people can if they choose to get some exposure to this new asset class. And I’m happy to hear that you guys see that kind of new wave of participants coming, because I think I mean, what we saw in twenty seventeen, I think isn’t even compare to what we see this time, or maybe not in the sense of percentage gains, but in a sense, the scale of the rub in the amount of people this market starts to get interested. Yeah, absolutely. In terms of replicating the percentage gains, it’s a lot harder because now we’re a larger market cap. However, I definitely think in terms of the number of participants entering the space, that’s going to be kind of dramatically different from what we saw three years ago. Absolutely. Does. The other thing is we’re timing this quite perfectly with the harvesting that and with institutional money down, there’s kind of two models that they respect more for Bitcoin because they don’t like to look at technical analysis. So the first is the shock ratio, which is your average annual returns divided by the maximum annual loss. Asset class can face. And when everybody’s reassessing their portfolio, as you’re going to have gold at zero point to the S&P 500, roughly around the same. Treasury bonds look a bit better. They have somewhere about point eight. But Bitcoin is right now completely off the charts with a two point four percent Sharpe ratio. Usually you never see this. So I find it very difficult for oh, I imagine it would be very difficult for asset managers to ignore this asset class. The other model that they respect, which is quite new for Bitcoin, is the stock to fly model. And that was kind of we’ve just crossed a one year birthday for the stock to fly model being kind of publicly assessed. And Plan B has actually recently upgraded 10 that write to the first person who applied the stock model stock to fly model to Bitcoin is recently reassessed that situation and determine that Bitcoin has evolved through its lifespan and basically started off as a proof of concept. And this will add a one million dollar market cap because that’s what the concept is worth. Then it kind of evolves. The narrative evolves around, okay, we’re going to use Bitcoin for payments. That’s why it has something around like 60 million dollar market cap. And then the narrative change as we as new technologies and measure, we discover becomes a bit slower. But that’s fine. We’re going to use it as digital go. Right now, that suddenly has a store value narrative. And therefore, let’s go to another higher market cap. And as the narrative changes, he he believes that we’re dealing with an entirely different asset each time. And what that’s enabled him to do is plot out the stuff to float model. But as a comparison against other asset classes. So it was he’s now comparing Bitcoin as a concept with Bitcoin, as a digital gold with Bitcoin is a financial asset versus silver and gold. And what’s been fantastic about that previously is stop the flow model only describes the well, it only projects the price as an extrapolation out of time. So say, okay, we have this sort of flow model. Therefore, asset flow decreases. We should see a higher price. Now he’s using interpolation because he’s able to use the stock to fly model of silver and gold to compare with Bitcoin, because right now it takes a lot longer to create to replicate the stock of gold. And same with silver. So therefore, it’s got a high end market cap that Bitcoin is now using that he’s basically increased the data. So he’s now projecting the price of Bitcoin using interpellation rather than extrapolation, a simplified way to assess. This is kind of like saying, OK, I’ve got I’ve got some watches on the high end. I’ve got to fix a leak that’s worth one hundred thousand dollars. And then I’ve got a Casio, which is worth 100 hundred bucks somewhere in the middle. You’ve got an Amiga which is worth a few thousand dollars. And you can kind of reliably assess the value of that much based on the high end and the low end of the data set. Whereas so now we’ve got kind of a this concept of the low end gold on the high end and now we’re able to predict a more reliable projection for the Bitcoin prices using the stock workflow process. And it’s an interesting kind of approach and stuff because, again, I think there haven’t been any major significant changes to the stock to flow model for quite some time. You know, I think around 2017 was really, really starting to get picked up. There’s been a lot of people watching it for some time. But I think Plan B evolving into this kind of comparison to different assets in this case, especially gold, is going to give us a lot more perspective into the kind of of the kind of the relevancy in this case to the having only to the having, but also into the stock to flow in this case. So I’m interested to see I’ll probably put up a chart so you guys can see it in this case, just to kind of demonstrate the difference from the trade that you probably already seen. But, you know, Jackson. Have you seen basically anyone take more of a liking to Bitcoin now with this evolution in the stock to flow model? Do you think this kind of new adjustment is probably much better than the original model we had before? It’s quite hard to say. I can definitely say that there is a lot of talk around this model in the fund management space. It’s yet, like you said, it’s rare that we get new things to talk about because it is such a new asset class and there’s very little data. So. When when there’s something new and exciting like this, it kind of circulates a lot and I think it might have something to do with the price action of the last couple of days because it’s the medium posted come out April twenty eight and then the day later, we have a nice rally on Bitcoin so that, I believe, had something to do with it. But yeah, yeah, I think the only thing we can say is there is there’s consistent growth in the narrative around Bitcoin and the institutional acceptance of it as a acceptable financial asset. It’s now a mature asset that that is it’s just a, you know, uncertain kind of new piece of technology. Absolutely. I think it’s going much more from a speculative phase to becoming a maturing asset. And I think the moment, you know, one thing I always bring back to people back to and stuff for me, the thing that got me back into really wanting to learn about Bitcoin ever since I first heard about 2011 was when in 2016 it came back to its all time highs. When I went back to eleven hundred, for me, that was the kind of mom or I was like, OK, I need to look into this. And I needed to really understand it. And I think you’re going to have that exact same reaction when Bitcoin gets back above to twenty thousand. Of course, for us, you know, for in the space right now, we know about the anticipation is we know what the fundamentals are. But I think, you know, I’d be curious to get your opinion on it. Jackson, would you would you agree with me that when we get to that point in twenty thousand, I think, as you mentioned, people are going to start looking at the models, they’re going to start looking at the fundamentals of Bitcoin and really start to consider this as a, you know, an asset that goes in people’s portfolios, especially as we’d be approaching, you know, a short there shortly thereafter. If we start going to, you know, 50, 60, 70, 80 thousand for Bitcoin or up to one hundred thousand, we’d be well over trillion dollar market cap. Yeah, absolutely. Because what happens as well is when you have an all time high, the environment you’re in is actually every purchaser who currently owns the asset is in profit. So they don’t have they don’t have cell pressure. They don’t have panic, sell pressure, basically. So any additional limit, all of us that get placed above that are from people who would like to incrementally capture profits. Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a store of value and therefore it’s not while it is used that way. It will be decreasing the amount of people who try to trade it for short term profits. Absolutely. To give that in mind, it’s stuff you’re talking about more of the liquidity in this case, having a long term focus rather than what would be kind of short term trading. And I think that’s again, what happens with most markets is you get a maturing as valuations rise, your percentage returns per cycle usually go down, but there’s a lot less volatility that follows. That’s one thing we were writing about an hour in our newsletter for the channel stuff. I talked basically about, you know, declining volatility usually means declining returns as markets mature. And this will be really sad to see. I completely agree with you, Jack. I think you’re going to see this kind of trend of more people focusing on the long term, more people focusing and understanding some of the fundamentals of the supply schedule. Because the thing I keep emphasizing, I know a lot of people talk about the having being priced in, but it’s the reason why back and for example, the first or second having Bitcoin wasn’t at a million dollars is because most people don’t understand what Bitcoin is. And they sure as hell don’t understand what’s going on with having model and stopped flow model that we have. So I think, again, if we’re here right now, we’re on the cutting edge of a lot of interesting stuff. But I want to go ahead and just kind of ask you, in this case, Jack, seeing a lot of people might be looking to make that kind of first position, they might be interested in getting some exposure to space. How do they go about doing an ITC order and how do they really know the RTC is right for them? Yes. So the great thing about Caleb and Brown is that every single investor likes to get on the phone and speak to their personal broker and have a conversation with them and ask him all the questions that they need to ask. That is the fundamental difference in our service. Then an exchange where you will need to execute those orders yourself. You need to kind of go through that learning curve on your own. We’re here to guide every single investor right along that process and help them out with any questions, any technical difficulties, as well as help them set up with a strategy and make sure that they follow through with their own strategy. One of the things that investors are very prone to is foma. And it’s it’s that it’s the rational thing to do to buy low. Sell high. However. It’s very uncomfortable buying into the price. It’s dropping. Right. Right. So we’ll sit down with the with the customer, will understand the needs, understand that plan, and then we follow up with them and we make sure that every step of the way that they go about this with the original strategy that they set in place. And then another benefit is that we treat you as a business relationship. So we were able to provide you with all the benefits that kind of the larger players get to receive as we’re able to let you into the market before we receive the funds. If you provide a proof of payments, so then that way to really all it’s all day, you’re able to benefit from the volatility. By capturing a low price and skipping that one to three business day that it takes for banking funds to clear the awesome. And so in this case, you get to able you’re able to have someone on the line, which I’ve never had with an exchange. And along with that as well, you’re able to lock in prices and not have to worry about the long wait times of bank transfers. Jack, that seems really exciting, man. I’m glad you could provide some of those kind of details. And for those out there who are interested. Feel free to check out the link, download the description if you guys are interested in exploring LTC services with Kailasam Brown. I’ve known the guys for a very long time. And, you know, just I think from the conversation we’ve had, Jackson, I mean, there’s so many interesting components and things going on at the moment. I mean, this has been the macro environment that a lot of us and the crypto space had been not so much waiting for. You know, I don’t really live for this world. I don’t want to see some of the disaster that’s going on right now. And then also to match with that the economic kind of mess that we’re getting ourselves into a central bank policy. But it’s going to be very interesting to see how this all plays out over the next coming months and how Krypto over the next couple of years, I think starts to really play a role as a major world asset in us. So I got to say thank you, man, for coming on and, you know, kind of joining this conversation. It’s been awesome to get some your insight into the market. And if you guys are interested, please, like I said, go check out the link down below. Go learn more about Jackson. The team grew up a great group of guys and stuff, and we’ll see you hopefully sometime soon. Another video. Jackson, thanks for coming on, man. Thanks for having me next. Always been great.

source https://www.cryptosharks.net/bitcoin-rallies-halving-anticipation-has-begun/ source https://cryptosharks1.blogspot.com/2020/05/bitcoin-rallies-to-9400-halving.html

[jeffrmayhugh]

Bitcoin Rallies To $9,400 | The Halving Anticipation Has Begun

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Well, it’s going on, everyone, my name is Nicholas Merton here, a dated Ash in today’s May 1st of 2020. Well, folks, I hope you are having a fantastic day wherever you are. And in today’s video, we’ve got a lot of things to discuss from Bitcoin’s price continuing to surge upward towards ninety four hundred dollars correcting over the last couple of hours, down to eighty eight hundred. However, all in all, holding the vast majority of its gains and looking like it might be going for more going into having it in mid-May. But outside of this as well, we’ve also got some really big developments in regards to the data science community for Bitcoin as the famed stock to flow model has gotten a reiteration from its original creator, Plan B. It talks about comparing Bitcoin not only as an evolving asset over time, but also comparing it to gold and silver within the stopped flow model. So going to be diving into all this and more especially as we go through our sponsored interview with Jackson from Kilbane Brown. Well, we dive deeper into this conversation of the new stock to flow model, as well as taking a look into what’s happening in regard to O.S.S. markets and institutional capital as we go through this major transformative shift between markets during all of the craziness with kov itself. We’ve got lots of things to discuss. Let’s not push off any longer. Dive right in to the video. So take a look across the board here for cryptocurrency markets, we can see the vast majority Kuprin currencies are urchin scenario right now between one to two percent. And again, this is just over the last 24 hours. But if we take a step back here, you can obviously see here over the last couple of days, guys, the cryptocurrency markets have been doing great. They’ve been phenomenally outpacing pretty much any market across the world. And we’ve started to really go vertical, as we talked about over the last few weeks as we started to recover here. And a lot of people were talking about Bitcoin going down to 6000 or 5000, you know, kind of earlier on before the having of it. Again, playing into the theory we had for a very long time here that valuations were going to rise in anticipation of the having of it. Now, I think a lot of this actually has to do is Jackson. I actually talk about in our interview later on into the new evaluation of the stock to flow model. And it’s a really interesting perspective. I want to spend some time diving into it, but I want to spend a little bit of time taking a look at this price action because we just reached our price target yesterday of around the upper nine thousand dollar range, around ninety five hundred dollars. Now, again, I don’t think we got exactly the ninety five hundred dollars or a few dollars short or in that case. And again, that’s always a point to most people out there can never be as greedy, be a little less greedy than the other person. A sense of your expectations always have your levels a little bit lower than those big evens. But all in all here, guys, this is basically what we’ve been theorizing. It’s been a lot faster than what I always thought about. I think the big mistake I always tend to make, and I think that a lot of people make in the space is we don’t anticipate how fast Bitcoin can move up. It can make these very stark moves very quickly. But again, volume was really nice. That was one of my big complaints. Still today is we started to make a higher move in price. But as we continued throughout the day, we really started to see here. We can take a look at B Allex. The volume came as spin or that one of the biggest spot voting days since back here and late March. So this is really good to see as we continue with the price. We’re seeing matching volume here. And again, I want to see a continuation of this across exchanges. But all in all, here, this is really good to see. We’re seeing as confidence and price. It looks like we’re holding here, even though we had a little bit of a pullback here. It seems like prices are holding the vast majority, the gains, and they’re looking like they want to recover and continue higher. You get a lot of these cattle’s with tall weeks’s or basically price eventually comes back on the next day. So in this case, I’m confident what we’re seeing. And I think, you know, again, being realistic here, I think the only thing we need to look at here is our Bitstamp chart here, that when we go ahead, pull it up here. Here we go. When you U.S. dollar. So basically, it’s going to go to just the chart here. We got to go to logarithmic and we’ve got a little bit of range that we could still see here going into May. And again, I think the highest level here is going to be somewhere in the upper nine thousand dollar range to ten thousand at max. But I’m not calling for anything too dramatic right now. I think we’ve seen the vast majority of this rally here. I know some people are calling for a breakthrough and having a bit above the line of resistance where we would basically start to climb higher. And here’s my only possibility. The only possible theory I have here in regards to that happening, we would have a continued rally here over the next week or so where we would break up above 10000. We break above these previous relative highs back here throughout 2019. And we would start our process of resting alongside the long line and resistance here and continuing higher as we go into the next coming months. OK, so it would be a multi month process here like we saw with gold, where prices rest along a lot of resistance, make it support and signify that we’re not going down the lower levels and we continue higher. Again, I don’t want to go ahead and make that that yet. I’m not going to try to make that call. But I will say here, I’m not really getting bearish on this until we start to see a day or two worth of downward price action. Again, you can set your stops. If you guys want a shot, possibly try to make that trade. We think it’s going to come down somewhere around six to seven thousand after the having event. You can do that again. It depends on what kind of you know, are you an investor, a trader? You just simply long term. Holdings is something we’re going to talk about in our newsletter, where, again, you really need to determine what you are as an individual. You are a trader investor in this market. Now, two of the things that just want to talk about before we dive in the stock flow model, a theorem, as well as the broader Auckland market, looking like it’s building into a wedge here for break out into the summer. Again, I always try to keep my estimates conservative. You guys know I’m exposed to all points, but warned me right now I’m going to be realistic with you. I don’t think we’re going to see a massive breakout. I also don’t think we’re going to see a massive sell off and all coins. But here’s my point. You can see here between a theory and one of the largest crypto currencies. And also, if we take a look at Bitcoin or Auckland dominance in this case, that we’re building a general wedge of higher lows and lower highs. And again, I think this is going to build into a technical pattern that’s going to help set us up into breaking into the longer term wedge and really spawning the next cycle for assets like a theorem and other crypto currencies other than Bitcoin. So, again, after the 90 percent correction means here, we got the double bottom here on the weekly chart. And now we’re building into the technical pattern to really signify that we’re ready for higher moves. So I thought I’d just toss and then show you guys again, you won’t get this looking at the hourly chart. Again, the thing I always emphasize, look at the daily, the weekly and the monthly. Those are the time frames you guys should be focusing on. The vast majority people should be focusing on whatever your trading style is. All right. So let’s go ahead and talk a little bit about this new stock to flow model that Plan B has put together. And again, if you guys haven’t already. You guys should follow plan B on Twitter and stuff. It’s a really interesting character and stuff. I’ve I have some individuals I know who have worked in the data science community who know that Plan B and they they share their data science models are really interesting. Awesome guys who are just always contributing to the space. So let’s just go ahead and talk a little bit about the current stock to flow model that existed beforehand. So the stock to flow model originally that was created by Plan B and then it’s been kind of model. It’s been modified a little bit as time progresses. It basically showcases here how bitcoin over time as we start to go through these adjusted periods where we have having event come through every about four years and crypto markets, how we see price correlate in kind of a a waxing waning or a kind of, you know, peak and trough around this general fair value range for the stock to flow model. And we can see as time progresses, as we go through these having events, whether it’s a little bit beforehand or a little bit afterwards, we see price resurge to new highs. All right. So this is the current flow model and it’s played a lot of relevancy. It’s probably one of the very few models. And I just want to emphasize the significance and congrats to Plan B on this. It’s been one of the most valuable models here, taking one of those fundamental aspects of Bitcoin that actual institutional investors care about. If we’re talking about people who are deploying, you know, tens, if not hundreds of millions of dollars, if not billions of dollars of capital to the cryptocurrency space. This is the model they care about. OK. So that holds a lot of relevancy. And when Plan B put this new model together that we’re gonna be talking about, it probably plays a very big role into why we’re seeing a lot of confidence coming in cryptocurrency markets. It really puts it in to an interesting perspective. Now, in this model, we’re simply just taking a look at Bitcoin evolving in a sense, what’s price over time, through out having events. And it’s a great model, but it doesn’t really help us see Bitcoin as a broader asset in the world. And it also does it tell us the story about how Bitcoin as an asset has evolved. A lot of people, including Plan B, hold a very solid theory that as time progresses, Bitcoin has become a changing asset even over the last decade. The perspective of Bitcoin is has changed a lot in this short period of time. And he taught it to talks about this. The term a phase transitions. So this basically talks about how, you know, you got to use the example here of how, for example, water can go from a solid to a liquid to a gas to ionized in this case. Right. So, again, the different states of matter. Right. Is this as an analogy? But he talks about how assets can do the exact same thing, how they can evolve over time. And he kind of demonstrates this here through the BTC narrative that people have talked about. This is an actual interesting kind of study here showing back in 2018 how from 2009, Bitcoin had really gone from being known for the vast majority people from an E cache proof of concept. Right. The people who are involved in this had known about a lot of the original E cache projects that were created by a variety of people in the cryptocurrency space that currently work in crypto. Again, you have a lot of different people, Nick Sabil. You have people like David Charm and stuff who have been kind of from the early days here in E Cache Revolution, now going into a vast majority of people, almost a sense similar amount I did thinking Bitcoin is a censorship resistant eagled in 2018 or an uncorrelated financial asset. So a big change there in the sense of perspective, and you can see here how the general market that’s making up the investors and the traders are starting to take on a different perspective. So this is a very important thing to keep in mind when we talk about building a better stock to flow model, building one that is actually going to account for these changes. But also, again, compare it as well to different assets. So, again, the original stock flow model here. Right. Taking into account Bitcoin’s valuation. Again, this is taking in market value in this case over time. And notice as well, when we take a look here, right. There’s, again, these two emphasized points here of an evolution of an asset and comparing it to gold and silver. Notice how as we take a look, the price plotts here. It seems like there are these little clusters, right? So we’re starting to see this again, this this basically point chart here where we can see different clusters of valuations. And again, this is as we’re taking a look at a logarithmic chart, the differences and having events, but also these kind of seismic shifts in what Bitcoin really is, is an asset. So let’s go ahead and take a look at the final chart here, right? This is for the Bitcoin side. We don’t have the floor. This is the look at the final version. The second. This is the bitcoin clusters that we have here, again, is kind of rough estimates where we have these different charac categories. Proof of concept was the first wave, the second being payments, the third one being eagled, and fourth of financial assets in an uncorrelated financial asset for people to be able to hedge against central bank monetary policy and world events. And now they’ve got the final model here, again, keeping in mind the stock to flow at the bottom here. Right. This isn’t really valuating against time here. It’s taking in the market valuation to the stock to flow. A very interesting change. Again, the original model was looking at over time. Right. We started to see market valuations rise. In this case is the stock to flow was increasing. It was a different perspective. This is now taking a look at a linear line here. It really showcases how the stock to flow shows a ton of relevancy. That’s a pretty consecutive trend here, guys. If you take a look at these general plots, the averages between each for you’re having event here, the market valuation here, and you can see how silver and gold play along those lines. Gold and silver themselves have very different stock to flows, silvers, much more well produced. It’s used in a lot of industrial use cases, comparative to gold. And because of this. Right, we have a much larger supply silver. And that’s why it’s so much less valuable asset comp.. Gold. Same place true here for Bitcoin. Bitcoin right now is around one hundred, 140 billion dollars. So we can actually probably get the official figure here right now. One hundred sixty two is we have actually technically had some increase in price, but a hundred sixty two billion dollars is nothing compared to the over 10 trillion dollars or more in value locked in gold markets. There’s a reason for that because the stock to flow is not more optimal than gold yet. We’re getting there in the next four. You’re having event, we’ll be there. We’ll be at a better inflation rate in this case compared to gold, meaning that the new issuance of supply, a.k.a. the stacked floor model and the stock full model, again, is a measure in this case. How many years in this case it’s going to take for us to get back to the current existing supply in this case? Right. To basically to double the current existing supply. And we’re not there yet, but we’re getting there gold at the moment. He’s the best doctor flow model. And when we go through this next phase for Bitcoin, the next having a bit, it’s going to leap us further onto this line. It’s going to lead us to higher valuations. They probably test along the lines of, you know, something above probably above silver in this case. Right. But then when we get to gold, that’s going to be the interesting catch. Can, in the next four year cycle, can we pass gold? Can we have and maintain a better stocked flow model? Will it work for Bitcoin with miners receiving such a smaller reward? Well, the valuation B, I think that’s the interesting question here. But again, the takeaways here from the article, I recommend you guys dive through this. We’ll talk a little bit about this with Jackson later on. And I think he entered. It provides a really interesting perspective to it. All in all, here, the conclusion reads, In this case, I want to go ahead and just take this time to read through this in the article. Plan B solidifies the basis of the current stacked flow model by removing time and adding other assets, silver and gold, to the model. He calls this new model the BTC s to F model core across asset model the S to effects model S to effects model enables valuation of different assets like silver, gold and bitcoin with one formula. Plan B is explain the concept of phase transitions, phase transitions, introducing a new way to think about Bitcoin as an evolving asset. About Bitcoin and the stock flow model. It’s led to the creation of this existing model. The S2 effects model formula has a perfect fit for data ninety nine point seven or two in this case, again showcasing the consistency in this case of the data over time. When comparing it to other cross assets like gold and silver, there’s two effects model estimates. A market value of the next BTC phase or cluster BTC as to F will be about fifty six in 2020 or 2024. So this is going with the new model. Take 56 years in this case with the current creation pattern for Bitcoin to duplicate supply. Now it’s never going to do that. But again, that’s it’s showcasing that the current existing inflation rate would take 56 years. In this case of 5.5 trillion, translate into a Bitcoin price, given that 18 million Bitcoin of two hundred eighty eight thousand dollars. So he’s saying in this time period that we would get up to a valuation of 5.5 trillion. Now, again, I’ve emphasizing and having much more conservative estimations. But this is, of course, according to the current model that we have, and this is rooted in data science, which makes me sometimes down a little bit of my own kind of conservative skepticism on where backwards price could go. But the one thing that makes me think that this could be possible that a two hundred eighty eight thousand dollar Bitcoin could happen is a few reasons. One. Many of us thought 10K was the top and easily within a couple of days, it went to twenty thousand, doubling valuations from our current estimations that we had back in 2017. Bitcoin can go crazy. Bitcoin doesn’t give a damn right. But along with that as well. We’re talking about a very interesting macro environment surrounding this, having it bitcoin right now is one of the only assets that is up year to year in this case or is outperforming other assets to no avail. Right. There might be other markets. Equities might be up and stuff after Kalis amounts of central bank monetary policy. The Bitcoin is still leading the way. Now, I want to go ahead and dive into this conversation with Jackson. We have the sponsored interview with Caleb and Brown because we really talk a lot about what’s going on, the macro environment, how much is at stake in regards to the liquidity that is going to be moving outside of traditional markets that might possibly come into crypto markets and justify this 5.5 trillion dollar estimated valuation that Plan B is pointing to in its data science model. All right. So let’s go ahead and dive into the conversation with Jackson from Caleb Brown. All right, everyone. So in today’s sponsored interview, I’m sitting down with Jackson from Caleb Brown, who is one of my good friends out in Australia. We’ve not only had many conversations beforehand in person, but we also like to do these videos from time to time here in the channel where we get some perspective into the ROTC market and what Jackson’s been saying across the industry. So, Jackson, thank you, man. For me in a time it’s great to catch up with you, especially during all this craziness that’s going on in the world right now. Thanks for having me. It’s always great to be on the show. As a man, it’s a pleasure to have you on. So I wanted to go ahead and start off then, because I know you guys are working with a lot of institutional capital inflows into the ROTC markets. And I think with Koven 19, we’ve seen a massive shift in the perspective of where people are allocating capital. I’ve seen that in the original venture capital space. I’ve seen it not only in the broader crypto market, but also in asset markets like equities. So I’m curious to get from you as someone who’s kind of working in that industry from kind of a bird’s eye view, what kind of trends are you seeing right now? And kind of a post Koven 19 environment. Yes. So if we want to think about what’s going to happen post Koban 19 now we need to look at the situation in its entirety. And firstly, we’ve got right now a giant hole in incomes and balance sheets. Ray Dallier from Bridgewater Associates estimates that to be 20 trillion dollars. So basically, you’re going to have central banks. Deploying stimulus packages roughly within the vicinity of 20 trillion dollars in order to fill these holes. So that’s a guarantee of the value of money going down. Which means all asset managers worth a dime of now reassessing their strategies. Because with bonds, your you suddenly become an investment that’s returning increasingly worthless pieces of paper. So that’s a one hundred trillion dollar market getting reassessed. Equities are definitely getting reassessed. Right. Because companies are going under and now everyone needs to reassess. OK. Which which are the companies that are going to survive through this? Until now, Bitcoin has existed in kind of a zero sum game for the last two years. The last time we had new participants into the market, those twenty seventeen, when we had a lot of we had a little media frenzy and a lot of new people coming into the market. Since twenty eighteen to twenty nineteen started this, yeah, it’s basically been the same players in the space. It hasn’t been that much needed quite a distance, which means it’s a zero sum game to which we know there’s a loser. But now we’re in this situation where all of these traditional investors, which previously are in other asset classes, now have the opportunity to look at a kind of solution previously. And they look at Bitcoin as an alternative. Right, because they have an existing functional strategy. So they don’t need to assess Bitcoin as something that they need right there. And they look at it as a alternative investment that may produce an outperformance. However, now every asset manager is now thinking, OK, I’ve got a problem. Yeah. And I need to solve it. And what other tools at my disposal? And Bitcoin is shaping up very nicely to be a potential option for every investor in the world. Absolutely, Matt. You know, taking a step back to your point. Yes, I think you culminated pretty well. And this is something that I’ve tried to emphasize a lot in regards to the kind of cash shortage that we’ve seen across the world and how this is set up, the perfect environment for Bitcoin. You’re talking about equities, for example. Companies and their stocks have been able to rise as much as they have over the last decade, especially in U.S. markets, because of solid corporate earnings and therefore buyback programs into their own stock. Nice paying dividends and that’s kept up equity markets for a very long time. We are not going to see those same kind of buyback programs or same kind of dividends or same kind of corporate earnings for a very long time. You mention the bond market as well. As much about one hundred trillion dollar mark. If you take U.S. Treasuries and other government bonds from the EU to Asia. And you have this issue now where you’ve kind of got two problems here, you’ve got negative interest rates. And this case therefore pushing bond yields into negative territory where the holders are already being penalized to some degree. But you can have some price appreciation. But as you mentioned, a lot of that appreciation is going to be in fundamental basis, devalued by the excessive printing to the tune of 20 trillion dollars between, you know, the Fed, ECB, the Bank of Japan. And now we have this asset like Bitcoin that sure doesn’t yield you anything, but it can’t be printed into oblivion and it doesn’t penalize you for holding it. And it’s completely out of the whim of these central banks. That is kind of correlated markets that have to deal with central bank monetary policy and government fiscal policy. Do you guys see in this case that there’s a kind of a new wave of investors coming that see Bitcoin as this kind of potential store value to hedge towards? Yeah, absolutely. So that’s that’s what we were getting at. Bitcoin has declined 10 years old, which means the entirety of its life. It has only existed within the macro bull market and it was designed to be a hedge against the financial existing system. So now we are in a position where there are people who previously were not considering Bitcoin. Now forced to consider it. And I guess we’ll see this through Google Trend Analytics. And perhaps if you have an increase of new viewers for us, we’re certainly seeing not a dramatic but definitely a significant increase in new sign ups to our business that are first time crypto investors. Yeah. The thing that trend is. Yeah, I think that trend is going to continue to grow because you’ve just had Andreessen Horowitz, one, announce that they’ve they’ve beaten out their raised target of 450 million dollars and they’ve just created a new fund for five hundred and fifteen million dollars. And there are a number of funds across the world that are saying that there’s a lot more investor interest. Absolutely, Matt. Yeah. You know, just to your comment earlier, it’s that it’s a bit difficult for me as a YouTube to see whether or not we get new users and stuff in the space. But we’ve definitely seen a bump up in the View counts, subscriber counts going up a little bit as well. So it means a little bit of new users coming in. And as you mentioned, you know, you’ve got all these massive v.C funds that are now stepping back in and starting to raise huge rounds and now starting to set allocated amounts of capital. And you saw Andriessen come out with very big piece that they wrote a while back and stuff talked about it’s time to innervates, time to, you know, kind of look at the current situation that we’re in right now where people aren’t able to get money when they need it. The companies can’t get loans when they need it. Individuals here in the US. You know, one of the richest countries in the world and stuff, we can’t get money out to people when they need it. So it shows that the payment rails and the networks we’re using right now are flawed. But I think, again, it it goes much deeper to that Jackson, not only just in the sense of the chance for a lot of innovative sectors within the cryptocurrency space, but also just that simple store value argument where, again, even though as many people have kind of debated about, I think a lot of people view store value as something that holds your wealth exactly the same valuation you put into it. But my opinion is, at the end of the day, I think to some other people that it’s supposed to be serving as a hedge in this case, where the vast majority times when you enter into it, you can either get your money back or in this case, you can get a larger return for your money back. That is hedged against the policies of central banks and things like that. But I think you’re very right. I think we’re stepping in this time with Bitcoin for the first time is actually living through a recession and what might be become a depression if this stagnation kind of continues. If you don’t see the same kind of growth bounce back and that kind of v shaped recovery. Yeah, absolutely. We are seeing a small recovery in the traditional markets at the moment, which is quite strange, right, because we’re seeing unemployment numbers go through the roof. But somehow the stock market has made a nicely shaped recovery. That’s true for that’s true for the US. That’s also kind of true for the Australian stock market. But in reality, it’s uncertainty. And I believe it’s it’s actually devaluation of money to some degree when you have printing of money. You’re expecting inflation. So are you expecting the price of goods and services to go up? Because we’re in a lockdown situation where everyone’s sitting at home. I’m not spending on goods, not spending on services, going to restaurants to the real economy is not actually receiving any of that stimulus money. So at the end of the day, the people receiving the stimulus checks, the expenses have gone down. Right. If you’re lucky enough to have the savings from your expenses gone down and now suddenly you have additional capital that you can allocate to the financial markets and that could have something to do with this, what I believe to be a temporary V shaped recovery. But this net, most macro economists are comparing this to the 1930s Great Depression rather than the 2008 financial crisis where we had relatively quick recovery from. Yeah, absolutely. To build on that, Jacs. And I think what you’re going to see here is, as I kind of talked a little bit better earlier, you’ll see that kind of bump, that recovery in GDP. You’ll see some people going back to work. The total kind of like long lasting unemployment starting to decline. But I think that you’re going to remain over double digit territory here in the US and a lot of other countries across the world for a very long period time. And that’s going to have a dent. I think eventually it will have a dent possibly on financial markets. But above all, in the real world economy and this the sad thing is, is that central bank monetary policy taking this next step into negative interest rates, infinite QE, as the US and Japan is already quoted, you know, in a literal sense, they’re really going to print as much as required. You’re going to see that the average American or the average participant, this case, even Australia, who has a few thousand dollars in their savings, that they’re going start being penalised for owning those dollars in their savings account, that they’re going to start seeing a lot less purchasing power. And again, I think this is where Bitcoin comes in is a very healthy new asset during this time, where people can if they choose to get some exposure to this new asset class. And I’m happy to hear that you guys see that kind of new wave of participants coming, because I think I mean, what we saw in twenty seventeen, I think isn’t even compare to what we see this time, or maybe not in the sense of percentage gains, but in a sense, the scale of the rub in the amount of people this market starts to get interested. Yeah, absolutely. In terms of replicating the percentage gains, it’s a lot harder because now we’re a larger market cap. However, I definitely think in terms of the number of participants entering the space, that’s going to be kind of dramatically different from what we saw three years ago. Absolutely. Does. The other thing is we’re timing this quite perfectly with the harvesting that and with institutional money down, there’s kind of two models that they respect more for Bitcoin because they don’t like to look at technical analysis. So the first is the shock ratio, which is your average annual returns divided by the maximum annual loss. Asset class can face. And when everybody’s reassessing their portfolio, as you’re going to have gold at zero point to the S&P 500, roughly around the same. Treasury bonds look a bit better. They have somewhere about point eight. But Bitcoin is right now completely off the charts with a two point four percent Sharpe ratio. Usually you never see this. So I find it very difficult for oh, I imagine it would be very difficult for asset managers to ignore this asset class. The other model that they respect, which is quite new for Bitcoin, is the stock to fly model. And that was kind of we’ve just crossed a one year birthday for the stock to fly model being kind of publicly assessed. And Plan B has actually recently upgraded 10 that write to the first person who applied the stock model stock to fly model to Bitcoin is recently reassessed that situation and determine that Bitcoin has evolved through its lifespan and basically started off as a proof of concept. And this will add a one million dollar market cap because that’s what the concept is worth. Then it kind of evolves. The narrative evolves around, okay, we’re going to use Bitcoin for payments. That’s why it has something around like 60 million dollar market cap. And then the narrative change as we as new technologies and measure, we discover becomes a bit slower. But that’s fine. We’re going to use it as digital go. Right now, that suddenly has a store value narrative. And therefore, let’s go to another higher market cap. And as the narrative changes, he he believes that we’re dealing with an entirely different asset each time. And what that’s enabled him to do is plot out the stuff to float model. But as a comparison against other asset classes. So it was he’s now comparing Bitcoin as a concept with Bitcoin, as a digital gold with Bitcoin is a financial asset versus silver and gold. And what’s been fantastic about that previously is stop the flow model only describes the well, it only projects the price as an extrapolation out of time. So say, okay, we have this sort of flow model. Therefore, asset flow decreases. We should see a higher price. Now he’s using interpolation because he’s able to use the stock to fly model of silver and gold to compare with Bitcoin, because right now it takes a lot longer to create to replicate the stock of gold. And same with silver. So therefore, it’s got a high end market cap that Bitcoin is now using that he’s basically increased the data. So he’s now projecting the price of Bitcoin using interpellation rather than extrapolation, a simplified way to assess. This is kind of like saying, OK, I’ve got I’ve got some watches on the high end. I’ve got to fix a leak that’s worth one hundred thousand dollars. And then I’ve got a Casio, which is worth 100 hundred bucks somewhere in the middle. You’ve got an Amiga which is worth a few thousand dollars. And you can kind of reliably assess the value of that much based on the high end and the low end of the data set. Whereas so now we’ve got kind of a this concept of the low end gold on the high end and now we’re able to predict a more reliable projection for the Bitcoin prices using the stock workflow process. And it’s an interesting kind of approach and stuff because, again, I think there haven’t been any major significant changes to the stock to flow model for quite some time. You know, I think around 2017 was really, really starting to get picked up. There’s been a lot of people watching it for some time. But I think Plan B evolving into this kind of comparison to different assets in this case, especially gold, is going to give us a lot more perspective into the kind of of the kind of the relevancy in this case to the having only to the having, but also into the stock to flow in this case. So I’m interested to see I’ll probably put up a chart so you guys can see it in this case, just to kind of demonstrate the difference from the trade that you probably already seen. But, you know, Jackson. Have you seen basically anyone take more of a liking to Bitcoin now with this evolution in the stock to flow model? Do you think this kind of new adjustment is probably much better than the original model we had before? It’s quite hard to say. I can definitely say that there is a lot of talk around this model in the fund management space. It’s yet, like you said, it’s rare that we get new things to talk about because it is such a new asset class and there’s very little data. So. When when there’s something new and exciting like this, it kind of circulates a lot and I think it might have something to do with the price action of the last couple of days because it’s the medium posted come out April twenty eight and then the day later, we have a nice rally on Bitcoin so that, I believe, had something to do with it. But yeah, yeah, I think the only thing we can say is there is there’s consistent growth in the narrative around Bitcoin and the institutional acceptance of it as a acceptable financial asset. It’s now a mature asset that that is it’s just a, you know, uncertain kind of new piece of technology. Absolutely. I think it’s going much more from a speculative phase to becoming a maturing asset. And I think the moment, you know, one thing I always bring back to people back to and stuff for me, the thing that got me back into really wanting to learn about Bitcoin ever since I first heard about 2011 was when in 2016 it came back to its all time highs. When I went back to eleven hundred, for me, that was the kind of mom or I was like, OK, I need to look into this. And I needed to really understand it. And I think you’re going to have that exact same reaction when Bitcoin gets back above to twenty thousand. Of course, for us, you know, for in the space right now, we know about the anticipation is we know what the fundamentals are. But I think, you know, I’d be curious to get your opinion on it. Jackson, would you would you agree with me that when we get to that point in twenty thousand, I think, as you mentioned, people are going to start looking at the models, they’re going to start looking at the fundamentals of Bitcoin and really start to consider this as a, you know, an asset that goes in people’s portfolios, especially as we’d be approaching, you know, a short there shortly thereafter. If we start going to, you know, 50, 60, 70, 80 thousand for Bitcoin or up to one hundred thousand, we’d be well over trillion dollar market cap. Yeah, absolutely. Because what happens as well is when you have an all time high, the environment you’re in is actually every purchaser who currently owns the asset is in profit. So they don’t have they don’t have cell pressure. They don’t have panic, sell pressure, basically. So any additional limit, all of us that get placed above that are from people who would like to incrementally capture profits. Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a store of value and therefore it’s not while it is used that way. It will be decreasing the amount of people who try to trade it for short term profits. Absolutely. To give that in mind, it’s stuff you’re talking about more of the liquidity in this case, having a long term focus rather than what would be kind of short term trading. And I think that’s again, what happens with most markets is you get a maturing as valuations rise, your percentage returns per cycle usually go down, but there’s a lot less volatility that follows. That’s one thing we were writing about an hour in our newsletter for the channel stuff. I talked basically about, you know, declining volatility usually means declining returns as markets mature. And this will be really sad to see. I completely agree with you, Jack. I think you’re going to see this kind of trend of more people focusing on the long term, more people focusing and understanding some of the fundamentals of the supply schedule. Because the thing I keep emphasizing, I know a lot of people talk about the having being priced in, but it’s the reason why back and for example, the first or second having Bitcoin wasn’t at a million dollars is because most people don’t understand what Bitcoin is. And they sure as hell don’t understand what’s going on with having model and stopped flow model that we have. So I think, again, if we’re here right now, we’re on the cutting edge of a lot of interesting stuff. But I want to go ahead and just kind of ask you, in this case, Jack, seeing a lot of people might be looking to make that kind of first position, they might be interested in getting some exposure to space. How do they go about doing an ITC order and how do they really know the RTC is right for them? Yes. So the great thing about Caleb and Brown is that every single investor likes to get on the phone and speak to their personal broker and have a conversation with them and ask him all the questions that they need to ask. That is the fundamental difference in our service. Then an exchange where you will need to execute those orders yourself. You need to kind of go through that learning curve on your own. We’re here to guide every single investor right along that process and help them out with any questions, any technical difficulties, as well as help them set up with a strategy and make sure that they follow through with their own strategy. One of the things that investors are very prone to is foma. And it’s it’s that it’s the rational thing to do to buy low. Sell high. However. It’s very uncomfortable buying into the price. It’s dropping. Right. Right. So we’ll sit down with the with the customer, will understand the needs, understand that plan, and then we follow up with them and we make sure that every step of the way that they go about this with the original strategy that they set in place. And then another benefit is that we treat you as a business relationship. So we were able to provide you with all the benefits that kind of the larger players get to receive as we’re able to let you into the market before we receive the funds. If you provide a proof of payments, so then that way to really all it’s all day, you’re able to benefit from the volatility. By capturing a low price and skipping that one to three business day that it takes for banking funds to clear the awesome. And so in this case, you get to able you’re able to have someone on the line, which I’ve never had with an exchange. And along with that as well, you’re able to lock in prices and not have to worry about the long wait times of bank transfers. Jack, that seems really exciting, man. I’m glad you could provide some of those kind of details. And for those out there who are interested. Feel free to check out the link, download the description if you guys are interested in exploring LTC services with Kailasam Brown. I’ve known the guys for a very long time. And, you know, just I think from the conversation we’ve had, Jackson, I mean, there’s so many interesting components and things going on at the moment. I mean, this has been the macro environment that a lot of us and the crypto space had been not so much waiting for. You know, I don’t really live for this world. I don’t want to see some of the disaster that’s going on right now. And then also to match with that the economic kind of mess that we’re getting ourselves into a central bank policy. But it’s going to be very interesting to see how this all plays out over the next coming months and how Krypto over the next couple of years, I think starts to really play a role as a major world asset in us. So I got to say thank you, man, for coming on and, you know, kind of joining this conversation. It’s been awesome to get some your insight into the market. And if you guys are interested, please, like I said, go check out the link down below. Go learn more about Jackson. The team grew up a great group of guys and stuff, and we’ll see you hopefully sometime soon. Another video. Jackson, thanks for coming on, man. Thanks for having me next. Always been great.

source https://www.cryptosharks.net/bitcoin-rallies-halving-anticipation-has-begun/ source https://cryptosharks1.tumblr.com/post/617113495917510656

[cryptosharks1]

Bitcoin Rallies To $9,400 | The Halving Anticipation Has Begun

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Well, it’s going on, everyone, my name is Nicholas Merton here, a dated Ash in today’s May 1st of 2020. Well, folks, I hope you are having a fantastic day wherever you are. And in today’s video, we’ve got a lot of things to discuss from Bitcoin’s price continuing to surge upward towards ninety four hundred dollars correcting over the last couple of hours, down to eighty eight hundred. However, all in all, holding the vast majority of its gains and looking like it might be going for more going into having it in mid-May. But outside of this as well, we’ve also got some really big developments in regards to the data science community for Bitcoin as the famed stock to flow model has gotten a reiteration from its original creator, Plan B. It talks about comparing Bitcoin not only as an evolving asset over time, but also comparing it to gold and silver within the stopped flow model. So going to be diving into all this and more especially as we go through our sponsored interview with Jackson from Kilbane Brown. Well, we dive deeper into this conversation of the new stock to flow model, as well as taking a look into what’s happening in regard to O.S.S. markets and institutional capital as we go through this major transformative shift between markets during all of the craziness with kov itself. We’ve got lots of things to discuss. Let’s not push off any longer. Dive right in to the video. So take a look across the board here for cryptocurrency markets, we can see the vast majority Kuprin currencies are urchin scenario right now between one to two percent. And again, this is just over the last 24 hours. But if we take a step back here, you can obviously see here over the last couple of days, guys, the cryptocurrency markets have been doing great. They’ve been phenomenally outpacing pretty much any market across the world. And we’ve started to really go vertical, as we talked about over the last few weeks as we started to recover here. And a lot of people were talking about Bitcoin going down to 6000 or 5000, you know, kind of earlier on before the having of it. Again, playing into the theory we had for a very long time here that valuations were going to rise in anticipation of the having of it. Now, I think a lot of this actually has to do is Jackson. I actually talk about in our interview later on into the new evaluation of the stock to flow model. And it’s a really interesting perspective. I want to spend some time diving into it, but I want to spend a little bit of time taking a look at this price action because we just reached our price target yesterday of around the upper nine thousand dollar range, around ninety five hundred dollars. Now, again, I don’t think we got exactly the ninety five hundred dollars or a few dollars short or in that case. And again, that’s always a point to most people out there can never be as greedy, be a little less greedy than the other person. A sense of your expectations always have your levels a little bit lower than those big evens. But all in all here, guys, this is basically what we’ve been theorizing. It’s been a lot faster than what I always thought about. I think the big mistake I always tend to make, and I think that a lot of people make in the space is we don’t anticipate how fast Bitcoin can move up. It can make these very stark moves very quickly. But again, volume was really nice. That was one of my big complaints. Still today is we started to make a higher move in price. But as we continued throughout the day, we really started to see here. We can take a look at B Allex. The volume came as spin or that one of the biggest spot voting days since back here and late March. So this is really good to see as we continue with the price. We’re seeing matching volume here. And again, I want to see a continuation of this across exchanges. But all in all, here, this is really good to see. We’re seeing as confidence and price. It looks like we’re holding here, even though we had a little bit of a pullback here. It seems like prices are holding the vast majority, the gains, and they’re looking like they want to recover and continue higher. You get a lot of these cattle’s with tall weeks’s or basically price eventually comes back on the next day. So in this case, I’m confident what we’re seeing. And I think, you know, again, being realistic here, I think the only thing we need to look at here is our Bitstamp chart here, that when we go ahead, pull it up here. Here we go. When you U.S. dollar. So basically, it’s going to go to just the chart here. We got to go to logarithmic and we’ve got a little bit of range that we could still see here going into May. And again, I think the highest level here is going to be somewhere in the upper nine thousand dollar range to ten thousand at max. But I’m not calling for anything too dramatic right now. I think we’ve seen the vast majority of this rally here. I know some people are calling for a breakthrough and having a bit above the line of resistance where we would basically start to climb higher. And here’s my only possibility. The only possible theory I have here in regards to that happening, we would have a continued rally here over the next week or so where we would break up above 10000. We break above these previous relative highs back here throughout 2019. And we would start our process of resting alongside the long line and resistance here and continuing higher as we go into the next coming months. OK, so it would be a multi month process here like we saw with gold, where prices rest along a lot of resistance, make it support and signify that we’re not going down the lower levels and we continue higher. Again, I don’t want to go ahead and make that that yet. I’m not going to try to make that call. But I will say here, I’m not really getting bearish on this until we start to see a day or two worth of downward price action. Again, you can set your stops. If you guys want a shot, possibly try to make that trade. We think it’s going to come down somewhere around six to seven thousand after the having event. You can do that again. It depends on what kind of you know, are you an investor, a trader? You just simply long term. Holdings is something we’re going to talk about in our newsletter, where, again, you really need to determine what you are as an individual. You are a trader investor in this market. Now, two of the things that just want to talk about before we dive in the stock flow model, a theorem, as well as the broader Auckland market, looking like it’s building into a wedge here for break out into the summer. Again, I always try to keep my estimates conservative. You guys know I’m exposed to all points, but warned me right now I’m going to be realistic with you. I don’t think we’re going to see a massive breakout. I also don’t think we’re going to see a massive sell off and all coins. But here’s my point. You can see here between a theory and one of the largest crypto currencies. And also, if we take a look at Bitcoin or Auckland dominance in this case, that we’re building a general wedge of higher lows and lower highs. And again, I think this is going to build into a technical pattern that’s going to help set us up into breaking into the longer term wedge and really spawning the next cycle for assets like a theorem and other crypto currencies other than Bitcoin. So, again, after the 90 percent correction means here, we got the double bottom here on the weekly chart. And now we’re building into the technical pattern to really signify that we’re ready for higher moves. So I thought I’d just toss and then show you guys again, you won’t get this looking at the hourly chart. Again, the thing I always emphasize, look at the daily, the weekly and the monthly. Those are the time frames you guys should be focusing on. The vast majority people should be focusing on whatever your trading style is. All right. So let’s go ahead and talk a little bit about this new stock to flow model that Plan B has put together. And again, if you guys haven’t already. You guys should follow plan B on Twitter and stuff. It’s a really interesting character and stuff. I’ve I have some individuals I know who have worked in the data science community who know that Plan B and they they share their data science models are really interesting. Awesome guys who are just always contributing to the space. So let’s just go ahead and talk a little bit about the current stock to flow model that existed beforehand. So the stock to flow model originally that was created by Plan B and then it’s been kind of model. It’s been modified a little bit as time progresses. It basically showcases here how bitcoin over time as we start to go through these adjusted periods where we have having event come through every about four years and crypto markets, how we see price correlate in kind of a a waxing waning or a kind of, you know, peak and trough around this general fair value range for the stock to flow model. And we can see as time progresses, as we go through these having events, whether it’s a little bit beforehand or a little bit afterwards, we see price resurge to new highs. All right. So this is the current flow model and it’s played a lot of relevancy. It’s probably one of the very few models. And I just want to emphasize the significance and congrats to Plan B on this. It’s been one of the most valuable models here, taking one of those fundamental aspects of Bitcoin that actual institutional investors care about. If we’re talking about people who are deploying, you know, tens, if not hundreds of millions of dollars, if not billions of dollars of capital to the cryptocurrency space. This is the model they care about. OK. So that holds a lot of relevancy. And when Plan B put this new model together that we’re gonna be talking about, it probably plays a very big role into why we’re seeing a lot of confidence coming in cryptocurrency markets. It really puts it in to an interesting perspective. Now, in this model, we’re simply just taking a look at Bitcoin evolving in a sense, what’s price over time, through out having events. And it’s a great model, but it doesn’t really help us see Bitcoin as a broader asset in the world. And it also does it tell us the story about how Bitcoin as an asset has evolved. A lot of people, including Plan B, hold a very solid theory that as time progresses, Bitcoin has become a changing asset even over the last decade. The perspective of Bitcoin is has changed a lot in this short period of time. And he taught it to talks about this. The term a phase transitions. So this basically talks about how, you know, you got to use the example here of how, for example, water can go from a solid to a liquid to a gas to ionized in this case. Right. So, again, the different states of matter. Right. Is this as an analogy? But he talks about how assets can do the exact same thing, how they can evolve over time. And he kind of demonstrates this here through the BTC narrative that people have talked about. This is an actual interesting kind of study here showing back in 2018 how from 2009, Bitcoin had really gone from being known for the vast majority people from an E cache proof of concept. Right. The people who are involved in this had known about a lot of the original E cache projects that were created by a variety of people in the cryptocurrency space that currently work in crypto. Again, you have a lot of different people, Nick Sabil. You have people like David Charm and stuff who have been kind of from the early days here in E Cache Revolution, now going into a vast majority of people, almost a sense similar amount I did thinking Bitcoin is a censorship resistant eagled in 2018 or an uncorrelated financial asset. So a big change there in the sense of perspective, and you can see here how the general market that’s making up the investors and the traders are starting to take on a different perspective. So this is a very important thing to keep in mind when we talk about building a better stock to flow model, building one that is actually going to account for these changes. But also, again, compare it as well to different assets. So, again, the original stock flow model here. Right. Taking into account Bitcoin’s valuation. Again, this is taking in market value in this case over time. And notice as well, when we take a look here, right. There’s, again, these two emphasized points here of an evolution of an asset and comparing it to gold and silver. Notice how as we take a look, the price plotts here. It seems like there are these little clusters, right? So we’re starting to see this again, this this basically point chart here where we can see different clusters of valuations. And again, this is as we’re taking a look at a logarithmic chart, the differences and having events, but also these kind of seismic shifts in what Bitcoin really is, is an asset. So let’s go ahead and take a look at the final chart here, right? This is for the Bitcoin side. We don’t have the floor. This is the look at the final version. The second. This is the bitcoin clusters that we have here, again, is kind of rough estimates where we have these different charac categories. Proof of concept was the first wave, the second being payments, the third one being eagled, and fourth of financial assets in an uncorrelated financial asset for people to be able to hedge against central bank monetary policy and world events. And now they’ve got the final model here, again, keeping in mind the stock to flow at the bottom here. Right. This isn’t really valuating against time here. It’s taking in the market valuation to the stock to flow. A very interesting change. Again, the original model was looking at over time. Right. We started to see market valuations rise. In this case is the stock to flow was increasing. It was a different perspective. This is now taking a look at a linear line here. It really showcases how the stock to flow shows a ton of relevancy. That’s a pretty consecutive trend here, guys. If you take a look at these general plots, the averages between each for you’re having event here, the market valuation here, and you can see how silver and gold play along those lines. Gold and silver themselves have very different stock to flows, silvers, much more well produced. It’s used in a lot of industrial use cases, comparative to gold. And because of this. Right, we have a much larger supply silver. And that’s why it’s so much less valuable asset comp.. Gold. Same place true here for Bitcoin. Bitcoin right now is around one hundred, 140 billion dollars. So we can actually probably get the official figure here right now. One hundred sixty two is we have actually technically had some increase in price, but a hundred sixty two billion dollars is nothing compared to the over 10 trillion dollars or more in value locked in gold markets. There’s a reason for that because the stock to flow is not more optimal than gold yet. We’re getting there in the next four. You’re having event, we’ll be there. We’ll be at a better inflation rate in this case compared to gold, meaning that the new issuance of supply, a.k.a. the stacked floor model and the stock full model, again, is a measure in this case. How many years in this case it’s going to take for us to get back to the current existing supply in this case? Right. To basically to double the current existing supply. And we’re not there yet, but we’re getting there gold at the moment. He’s the best doctor flow model. And when we go through this next phase for Bitcoin, the next having a bit, it’s going to leap us further onto this line. It’s going to lead us to higher valuations. They probably test along the lines of, you know, something above probably above silver in this case. Right. But then when we get to gold, that’s going to be the interesting catch. Can, in the next four year cycle, can we pass gold? Can we have and maintain a better stocked flow model? Will it work for Bitcoin with miners receiving such a smaller reward? Well, the valuation B, I think that’s the interesting question here. But again, the takeaways here from the article, I recommend you guys dive through this. We’ll talk a little bit about this with Jackson later on. And I think he entered. It provides a really interesting perspective to it. All in all, here, the conclusion reads, In this case, I want to go ahead and just take this time to read through this in the article. Plan B solidifies the basis of the current stacked flow model by removing time and adding other assets, silver and gold, to the model. He calls this new model the BTC s to F model core across asset model the S to effects model S to effects model enables valuation of different assets like silver, gold and bitcoin with one formula. Plan B is explain the concept of phase transitions, phase transitions, introducing a new way to think about Bitcoin as an evolving asset. About Bitcoin and the stock flow model. It’s led to the creation of this existing model. The S2 effects model formula has a perfect fit for data ninety nine point seven or two in this case, again showcasing the consistency in this case of the data over time. When comparing it to other cross assets like gold and silver, there’s two effects model estimates. A market value of the next BTC phase or cluster BTC as to F will be about fifty six in 2020 or 2024. So this is going with the new model. Take 56 years in this case with the current creation pattern for Bitcoin to duplicate supply. Now it’s never going to do that. But again, that’s it’s showcasing that the current existing inflation rate would take 56 years. In this case of 5.5 trillion, translate into a Bitcoin price, given that 18 million Bitcoin of two hundred eighty eight thousand dollars. So he’s saying in this time period that we would get up to a valuation of 5.5 trillion. Now, again, I’ve emphasizing and having much more conservative estimations. But this is, of course, according to the current model that we have, and this is rooted in data science, which makes me sometimes down a little bit of my own kind of conservative skepticism on where backwards price could go. But the one thing that makes me think that this could be possible that a two hundred eighty eight thousand dollar Bitcoin could happen is a few reasons. One. Many of us thought 10K was the top and easily within a couple of days, it went to twenty thousand, doubling valuations from our current estimations that we had back in 2017. Bitcoin can go crazy. Bitcoin doesn’t give a damn right. But along with that as well. We’re talking about a very interesting macro environment surrounding this, having it bitcoin right now is one of the only assets that is up year to year in this case or is outperforming other assets to no avail. Right. There might be other markets. Equities might be up and stuff after Kalis amounts of central bank monetary policy. The Bitcoin is still leading the way. Now, I want to go ahead and dive into this conversation with Jackson. We have the sponsored interview with Caleb and Brown because we really talk a lot about what’s going on, the macro environment, how much is at stake in regards to the liquidity that is going to be moving outside of traditional markets that might possibly come into crypto markets and justify this 5.5 trillion dollar estimated valuation that Plan B is pointing to in its data science model. All right. So let’s go ahead and dive into the conversation with Jackson from Caleb Brown. All right, everyone. So in today’s sponsored interview, I’m sitting down with Jackson from Caleb Brown, who is one of my good friends out in Australia. We’ve not only had many conversations beforehand in person, but we also like to do these videos from time to time here in the channel where we get some perspective into the ROTC market and what Jackson’s been saying across the industry. So, Jackson, thank you, man. For me in a time it’s great to catch up with you, especially during all this craziness that’s going on in the world right now. Thanks for having me. It’s always great to be on the show. As a man, it’s a pleasure to have you on. So I wanted to go ahead and start off then, because I know you guys are working with a lot of institutional capital inflows into the ROTC markets. And I think with Koven 19, we’ve seen a massive shift in the perspective of where people are allocating capital. I’ve seen that in the original venture capital space. I’ve seen it not only in the broader crypto market, but also in asset markets like equities. So I’m curious to get from you as someone who’s kind of working in that industry from kind of a bird’s eye view, what kind of trends are you seeing right now? And kind of a post Koven 19 environment. Yes. So if we want to think about what’s going to happen post Koban 19 now we need to look at the situation in its entirety. And firstly, we’ve got right now a giant hole in incomes and balance sheets. Ray Dallier from Bridgewater Associates estimates that to be 20 trillion dollars. So basically, you’re going to have central banks. Deploying stimulus packages roughly within the vicinity of 20 trillion dollars in order to fill these holes. So that’s a guarantee of the value of money going down. Which means all asset managers worth a dime of now reassessing their strategies. Because with bonds, your you suddenly become an investment that’s returning increasingly worthless pieces of paper. So that’s a one hundred trillion dollar market getting reassessed. Equities are definitely getting reassessed. Right. Because companies are going under and now everyone needs to reassess. OK. Which which are the companies that are going to survive through this? Until now, Bitcoin has existed in kind of a zero sum game for the last two years. The last time we had new participants into the market, those twenty seventeen, when we had a lot of we had a little media frenzy and a lot of new people coming into the market. Since twenty eighteen to twenty nineteen started this, yeah, it’s basically been the same players in the space. It hasn’t been that much needed quite a distance, which means it’s a zero sum game to which we know there’s a loser. But now we’re in this situation where all of these traditional investors, which previously are in other asset classes, now have the opportunity to look at a kind of solution previously. And they look at Bitcoin as an alternative. Right, because they have an existing functional strategy. So they don’t need to assess Bitcoin as something that they need right there. And they look at it as a alternative investment that may produce an outperformance. However, now every asset manager is now thinking, OK, I’ve got a problem. Yeah. And I need to solve it. And what other tools at my disposal? And Bitcoin is shaping up very nicely to be a potential option for every investor in the world. Absolutely, Matt. You know, taking a step back to your point. Yes, I think you culminated pretty well. And this is something that I’ve tried to emphasize a lot in regards to the kind of cash shortage that we’ve seen across the world and how this is set up, the perfect environment for Bitcoin. You’re talking about equities, for example. Companies and their stocks have been able to rise as much as they have over the last decade, especially in U.S. markets, because of solid corporate earnings and therefore buyback programs into their own stock. Nice paying dividends and that’s kept up equity markets for a very long time. We are not going to see those same kind of buyback programs or same kind of dividends or same kind of corporate earnings for a very long time. You mention the bond market as well. As much about one hundred trillion dollar mark. If you take U.S. Treasuries and other government bonds from the EU to Asia. And you have this issue now where you’ve kind of got two problems here, you’ve got negative interest rates. And this case therefore pushing bond yields into negative territory where the holders are already being penalized to some degree. But you can have some price appreciation. But as you mentioned, a lot of that appreciation is going to be in fundamental basis, devalued by the excessive printing to the tune of 20 trillion dollars between, you know, the Fed, ECB, the Bank of Japan. And now we have this asset like Bitcoin that sure doesn’t yield you anything, but it can’t be printed into oblivion and it doesn’t penalize you for holding it. And it’s completely out of the whim of these central banks. That is kind of correlated markets that have to deal with central bank monetary policy and government fiscal policy. Do you guys see in this case that there’s a kind of a new wave of investors coming that see Bitcoin as this kind of potential store value to hedge towards? Yeah, absolutely. So that’s that’s what we were getting at. Bitcoin has declined 10 years old, which means the entirety of its life. It has only existed within the macro bull market and it was designed to be a hedge against the financial existing system. So now we are in a position where there are people who previously were not considering Bitcoin. Now forced to consider it. And I guess we’ll see this through Google Trend Analytics. And perhaps if you have an increase of new viewers for us, we’re certainly seeing not a dramatic but definitely a significant increase in new sign ups to our business that are first time crypto investors. Yeah. The thing that trend is. Yeah, I think that trend is going to continue to grow because you’ve just had Andreessen Horowitz, one, announce that they’ve they’ve beaten out their raised target of 450 million dollars and they’ve just created a new fund for five hundred and fifteen million dollars. And there are a number of funds across the world that are saying that there’s a lot more investor interest. Absolutely, Matt. Yeah. You know, just to your comment earlier, it’s that it’s a bit difficult for me as a YouTube to see whether or not we get new users and stuff in the space. But we’ve definitely seen a bump up in the View counts, subscriber counts going up a little bit as well. So it means a little bit of new users coming in. And as you mentioned, you know, you’ve got all these massive v.C funds that are now stepping back in and starting to raise huge rounds and now starting to set allocated amounts of capital. And you saw Andriessen come out with very big piece that they wrote a while back and stuff talked about it’s time to innervates, time to, you know, kind of look at the current situation that we’re in right now where people aren’t able to get money when they need it. The companies can’t get loans when they need it. Individuals here in the US. You know, one of the richest countries in the world and stuff, we can’t get money out to people when they need it. So it shows that the payment rails and the networks we’re using right now are flawed. But I think, again, it it goes much deeper to that Jackson, not only just in the sense of the chance for a lot of innovative sectors within the cryptocurrency space, but also just that simple store value argument where, again, even though as many people have kind of debated about, I think a lot of people view store value as something that holds your wealth exactly the same valuation you put into it. But my opinion is, at the end of the day, I think to some other people that it’s supposed to be serving as a hedge in this case, where the vast majority times when you enter into it, you can either get your money back or in this case, you can get a larger return for your money back. That is hedged against the policies of central banks and things like that. But I think you’re very right. I think we’re stepping in this time with Bitcoin for the first time is actually living through a recession and what might be become a depression if this stagnation kind of continues. If you don’t see the same kind of growth bounce back and that kind of v shaped recovery. Yeah, absolutely. We are seeing a small recovery in the traditional markets at the moment, which is quite strange, right, because we’re seeing unemployment numbers go through the roof. But somehow the stock market has made a nicely shaped recovery. That’s true for that’s true for the US. That’s also kind of true for the Australian stock market. But in reality, it’s uncertainty. And I believe it’s it’s actually devaluation of money to some degree when you have printing of money. You’re expecting inflation. So are you expecting the price of goods and services to go up? Because we’re in a lockdown situation where everyone’s sitting at home. I’m not spending on goods, not spending on services, going to restaurants to the real economy is not actually receiving any of that stimulus money. So at the end of the day, the people receiving the stimulus checks, the expenses have gone down. Right. If you’re lucky enough to have the savings from your expenses gone down and now suddenly you have additional capital that you can allocate to the financial markets and that could have something to do with this, what I believe to be a temporary V shaped recovery. But this net, most macro economists are comparing this to the 1930s Great Depression rather than the 2008 financial crisis where we had relatively quick recovery from. Yeah, absolutely. To build on that, Jacs. And I think what you’re going to see here is, as I kind of talked a little bit better earlier, you’ll see that kind of bump, that recovery in GDP. You’ll see some people going back to work. The total kind of like long lasting unemployment starting to decline. But I think that you’re going to remain over double digit territory here in the US and a lot of other countries across the world for a very long period time. And that’s going to have a dent. I think eventually it will have a dent possibly on financial markets. But above all, in the real world economy and this the sad thing is, is that central bank monetary policy taking this next step into negative interest rates, infinite QE, as the US and Japan is already quoted, you know, in a literal sense, they’re really going to print as much as required. You’re going to see that the average American or the average participant, this case, even Australia, who has a few thousand dollars in their savings, that they’re going start being penalised for owning those dollars in their savings account, that they’re going to start seeing a lot less purchasing power. And again, I think this is where Bitcoin comes in is a very healthy new asset during this time, where people can if they choose to get some exposure to this new asset class. And I’m happy to hear that you guys see that kind of new wave of participants coming, because I think I mean, what we saw in twenty seventeen, I think isn’t even compare to what we see this time, or maybe not in the sense of percentage gains, but in a sense, the scale of the rub in the amount of people this market starts to get interested. Yeah, absolutely. In terms of replicating the percentage gains, it’s a lot harder because now we’re a larger market cap. However, I definitely think in terms of the number of participants entering the space, that’s going to be kind of dramatically different from what we saw three years ago. Absolutely. Does. The other thing is we’re timing this quite perfectly with the harvesting that and with institutional money down, there’s kind of two models that they respect more for Bitcoin because they don’t like to look at technical analysis. So the first is the shock ratio, which is your average annual returns divided by the maximum annual loss. Asset class can face. And when everybody’s reassessing their portfolio, as you’re going to have gold at zero point to the S&P 500, roughly around the same. Treasury bonds look a bit better. They have somewhere about point eight. But Bitcoin is right now completely off the charts with a two point four percent Sharpe ratio. Usually you never see this. So I find it very difficult for oh, I imagine it would be very difficult for asset managers to ignore this asset class. The other model that they respect, which is quite new for Bitcoin, is the stock to fly model. And that was kind of we’ve just crossed a one year birthday for the stock to fly model being kind of publicly assessed. And Plan B has actually recently upgraded 10 that write to the first person who applied the stock model stock to fly model to Bitcoin is recently reassessed that situation and determine that Bitcoin has evolved through its lifespan and basically started off as a proof of concept. And this will add a one million dollar market cap because that’s what the concept is worth. Then it kind of evolves. The narrative evolves around, okay, we’re going to use Bitcoin for payments. That’s why it has something around like 60 million dollar market cap. And then the narrative change as we as new technologies and measure, we discover becomes a bit slower. But that’s fine. We’re going to use it as digital go. Right now, that suddenly has a store value narrative. And therefore, let’s go to another higher market cap. And as the narrative changes, he he believes that we’re dealing with an entirely different asset each time. And what that’s enabled him to do is plot out the stuff to float model. But as a comparison against other asset classes. So it was he’s now comparing Bitcoin as a concept with Bitcoin, as a digital gold with Bitcoin is a financial asset versus silver and gold. And what’s been fantastic about that previously is stop the flow model only describes the well, it only projects the price as an extrapolation out of time. So say, okay, we have this sort of flow model. Therefore, asset flow decreases. We should see a higher price. Now he’s using interpolation because he’s able to use the stock to fly model of silver and gold to compare with Bitcoin, because right now it takes a lot longer to create to replicate the stock of gold. And same with silver. So therefore, it’s got a high end market cap that Bitcoin is now using that he’s basically increased the data. So he’s now projecting the price of Bitcoin using interpellation rather than extrapolation, a simplified way to assess. This is kind of like saying, OK, I’ve got I’ve got some watches on the high end. I’ve got to fix a leak that’s worth one hundred thousand dollars. And then I’ve got a Casio, which is worth 100 hundred bucks somewhere in the middle. You’ve got an Amiga which is worth a few thousand dollars. And you can kind of reliably assess the value of that much based on the high end and the low end of the data set. Whereas so now we’ve got kind of a this concept of the low end gold on the high end and now we’re able to predict a more reliable projection for the Bitcoin prices using the stock workflow process. And it’s an interesting kind of approach and stuff because, again, I think there haven’t been any major significant changes to the stock to flow model for quite some time. You know, I think around 2017 was really, really starting to get picked up. There’s been a lot of people watching it for some time. But I think Plan B evolving into this kind of comparison to different assets in this case, especially gold, is going to give us a lot more perspective into the kind of of the kind of the relevancy in this case to the having only to the having, but also into the stock to flow in this case. So I’m interested to see I’ll probably put up a chart so you guys can see it in this case, just to kind of demonstrate the difference from the trade that you probably already seen. But, you know, Jackson. Have you seen basically anyone take more of a liking to Bitcoin now with this evolution in the stock to flow model? Do you think this kind of new adjustment is probably much better than the original model we had before? It’s quite hard to say. I can definitely say that there is a lot of talk around this model in the fund management space. It’s yet, like you said, it’s rare that we get new things to talk about because it is such a new asset class and there’s very little data. So. When when there’s something new and exciting like this, it kind of circulates a lot and I think it might have something to do with the price action of the last couple of days because it’s the medium posted come out April twenty eight and then the day later, we have a nice rally on Bitcoin so that, I believe, had something to do with it. But yeah, yeah, I think the only thing we can say is there is there’s consistent growth in the narrative around Bitcoin and the institutional acceptance of it as a acceptable financial asset. It’s now a mature asset that that is it’s just a, you know, uncertain kind of new piece of technology. Absolutely. I think it’s going much more from a speculative phase to becoming a maturing asset. And I think the moment, you know, one thing I always bring back to people back to and stuff for me, the thing that got me back into really wanting to learn about Bitcoin ever since I first heard about 2011 was when in 2016 it came back to its all time highs. When I went back to eleven hundred, for me, that was the kind of mom or I was like, OK, I need to look into this. And I needed to really understand it. And I think you’re going to have that exact same reaction when Bitcoin gets back above to twenty thousand. Of course, for us, you know, for in the space right now, we know about the anticipation is we know what the fundamentals are. But I think, you know, I’d be curious to get your opinion on it. Jackson, would you would you agree with me that when we get to that point in twenty thousand, I think, as you mentioned, people are going to start looking at the models, they’re going to start looking at the fundamentals of Bitcoin and really start to consider this as a, you know, an asset that goes in people’s portfolios, especially as we’d be approaching, you know, a short there shortly thereafter. If we start going to, you know, 50, 60, 70, 80 thousand for Bitcoin or up to one hundred thousand, we’d be well over trillion dollar market cap. Yeah, absolutely. Because what happens as well is when you have an all time high, the environment you’re in is actually every purchaser who currently owns the asset is in profit. So they don’t have they don’t have cell pressure. They don’t have panic, sell pressure, basically. So any additional limit, all of us that get placed above that are from people who would like to incrementally capture profits. Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a store of value and therefore it’s not while it is used that way. It will be decreasing the amount of people who try to trade it for short term profits. Absolutely. To give that in mind, it’s stuff you’re talking about more of the liquidity in this case, having a long term focus rather than what would be kind of short term trading. And I think that’s again, what happens with most markets is you get a maturing as valuations rise, your percentage returns per cycle usually go down, but there’s a lot less volatility that follows. That’s one thing we were writing about an hour in our newsletter for the channel stuff. I talked basically about, you know, declining volatility usually means declining returns as markets mature. And this will be really sad to see. I completely agree with you, Jack. I think you’re going to see this kind of trend of more people focusing on the long term, more people focusing and understanding some of the fundamentals of the supply schedule. Because the thing I keep emphasizing, I know a lot of people talk about the having being priced in, but it’s the reason why back and for example, the first or second having Bitcoin wasn’t at a million dollars is because most people don’t understand what Bitcoin is. And they sure as hell don’t understand what’s going on with having model and stopped flow model that we have. So I think, again, if we’re here right now, we’re on the cutting edge of a lot of interesting stuff. But I want to go ahead and just kind of ask you, in this case, Jack, seeing a lot of people might be looking to make that kind of first position, they might be interested in getting some exposure to space. How do they go about doing an ITC order and how do they really know the RTC is right for them? Yes. So the great thing about Caleb and Brown is that every single investor likes to get on the phone and speak to their personal broker and have a conversation with them and ask him all the questions that they need to ask. That is the fundamental difference in our service. Then an exchange where you will need to execute those orders yourself. You need to kind of go through that learning curve on your own. We’re here to guide every single investor right along that process and help them out with any questions, any technical difficulties, as well as help them set up with a strategy and make sure that they follow through with their own strategy. One of the things that investors are very prone to is foma. And it’s it’s that it’s the rational thing to do to buy low. Sell high. However. It’s very uncomfortable buying into the price. It’s dropping. Right. Right. So we’ll sit down with the with the customer, will understand the needs, understand that plan, and then we follow up with them and we make sure that every step of the way that they go about this with the original strategy that they set in place. And then another benefit is that we treat you as a business relationship. So we were able to provide you with all the benefits that kind of the larger players get to receive as we’re able to let you into the market before we receive the funds. If you provide a proof of payments, so then that way to really all it’s all day, you’re able to benefit from the volatility. By capturing a low price and skipping that one to three business day that it takes for banking funds to clear the awesome. And so in this case, you get to able you’re able to have someone on the line, which I’ve never had with an exchange. And along with that as well, you’re able to lock in prices and not have to worry about the long wait times of bank transfers. Jack, that seems really exciting, man. I’m glad you could provide some of those kind of details. And for those out there who are interested. Feel free to check out the link, download the description if you guys are interested in exploring LTC services with Kailasam Brown. I’ve known the guys for a very long time. And, you know, just I think from the conversation we’ve had, Jackson, I mean, there’s so many interesting components and things going on at the moment. I mean, this has been the macro environment that a lot of us and the crypto space had been not so much waiting for. You know, I don’t really live for this world. I don’t want to see some of the disaster that’s going on right now. And then also to match with that the economic kind of mess that we’re getting ourselves into a central bank policy. But it’s going to be very interesting to see how this all plays out over the next coming months and how Krypto over the next couple of years, I think starts to really play a role as a major world asset in us. So I got to say thank you, man, for coming on and, you know, kind of joining this conversation. It’s been awesome to get some your insight into the market. And if you guys are interested, please, like I said, go check out the link down below. Go learn more about Jackson. The team grew up a great group of guys and stuff, and we’ll see you hopefully sometime soon. Another video. Jackson, thanks for coming on, man. Thanks for having me next. Always been great.

source https://www.cryptosharks.net/bitcoin-rallies-halving-anticipation-has-begun/

[wonderer-ru]

Hey! how are you doing cutie? I wanted to ask if you have any good books to recommend? Autumn just started here, and after this Thursday I'll be done with school forever (and if i do well in my next test I will finally have my diploma yay!) so I will have lots of free time to read until I go back to work... but I've read everything that is on my bookshelf already lol. Sorry for the amount of uninportant information you had to read on this. Have a nice day and take care of yourself

HELLO to you too, love!! god, i get so excited when people ask me stuff, it’s embarrassing :’D

i am doing fine, thank you :)) i actually am working on my masters degree diploma now, but i’ll be free of that only in july, so i am jealous! (though free as the wind after it’s over!!) congratulations to you! and nothing unimportant about that information, i love when people share!

gosh, i am glad you got that impression of me - that i am a person who could recommend good books to read, but, unfortunately, i read way less than i’d love to. i don’t know if maybe you are the same anon that asked me about my favorite authors awhile back, so i am gonna repeat myself on a lot of these :’) ”when nietzsche wep”’ by irvin yalom (i really enjoyed it, but maybe that’s just my psychology major talking; i love back and forth deep conversations flowing + “lying on the couch” is up that alley too)not so long ago (maybe a couple years back) i went through a bernard werber phase. he has cycles of stories. i started with “the angels cycle”, which contains 2 books (i started with “the empire of the angels” and went from there. i know it sounds a bit corny, but i think he had quite a clever way of twisting the well known mythology, and i love mythology based books. especially when there’s an interesting twist on it.i like neil gaiman’s whimsical worlds. “neverwhere” would be a good example. because of him i started reading a collection of stories “rags & bones: new twists on timeless tales”, which i still enjoy.

i also love reading expiriences, where you aren’t quite sure if the author is a genious or just plain insane. “master and margarita” by bulgakovwould be a great exapmple of that. when it comes to romance, “the garnet bracelet” by kuprin comes to mind.

if you like poetry then i’d recommend bo burnham’s “egghead” (it’s fun and i won’t pass on the chance to promote my uncle ;D); i like erin hanson’s poems; nikolai gumilyov is my favorite poet and i’ve seen good translations of his work. thank you for asking! it looks like a long answer, but i don’t feel like i gave you a lot >