#DESPITE HAVING 10X THE POSTS OF MY PRIMARY
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thewriting-corner · 3 years ago
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Writing voice
Long time no see, am I right? Sorry about that! Full time jobs… 10x times harder than the 100x level of hardness I expected when it comes to having a life. If any of you have a full time job and a life, I applaud you cuz jeez.
Anyway, the other day at work I started a post on writing voice and I was really enjoying it! And then some calls happened, I forgot and here I am redoing the whole thing lol. Enjoy!
What is it
First of all, what is voice? Aside from that sound that comes out of our mouths when we speak, it’s the way we talk that makes us us. Personally, I define voice as the thing that differentiates us from reading an encyclopedia (though having read lots of encyclopedias when I was younger I can tell you some authors definitely let their voice shine). Voice makes us different from one another.
Say, what makes Superman and Batman different? They’re both attractive men who put on capes to fight crime, lost their parents and pretend everyday to be someone they’re not. BUT, they have different morals. To Superman, saving people is the ultimate goal no matter what. But to Batman, what matters is justice. Superman’s parents died so Superman could live. He represents hope. Bruce Wayne, on the other hand, had to watch his parents die with fear, and therefore used fear as the primary weapon of his alter ego. This key in their characters is what makes up their voice, meaning what makes them unique from one another despite having many things in common.
How to develop it
Now that all that has been established, you may be having some questions like, “Oh, the all powerful, wise Lu! But how do I develop voice?” For me, this happens in two different processes: one for main characters, one for the rest.
Note: voice takes time. Some people are really good at nailing a main character’s voice in the first draft while others may take a few more drafts to get it, and a few more to nail the side characters’ voices. Don’t feel that you HAVE to nail character voice in the first, second or even third draft. Even published authors take over five rewrites to start hearing the main character’s voice.
Main characters
- Write diary entries OR scenes in first person. Write an extra scene or diary entry of a specific moment in their life/book. How do they feel? How has the plot been affecting them? What things hide in their mind besides the plot?
- Compare myself to the MC. This sounds stupid, but I like to think about how my MCs would react differently to me in certain situations. For instance, if I’m at a party, I know Marty and I would both feel insanely awkward, but while she may go hide in a corner, I’d go to the food and drinks table and use ✨adult drinks✨ to calm down (also because I’d likely get anxious and Marty wouldn’t).
This also applies to book/plot related stuff. I know that if I were the MC in my WIP, I would have never followed the Superhuman League. I would have never had the courage to kiss the love interest. It would’ve taken me MONTHS to get used to the Superhumans. Because Marty and I have very different ways of being brought up, different childhoods, different traumas, our voices become different. There are times where she says things in situations where I can’t even imagine myself speaking. Comparing how you and your MC would act helps detach ourselves from them (meaning, not having them be 100% a self insert) while also getting to know them better.
- Think how a song relates to a certain aspect of their life. Take your own playlist and put it on shuffle. Whatever song it lands on think: could the MC relate to this? If yes, how? If not, how? Would they dance to this song? If yes, would they dance alone in their room or with a friend? Maybe they would dance it at their wedding or their best friend’s wedding. Maybe it’s the song they want to die for. Instead of listening to songs according to how you, the author, places them in the story, listen to them like you’re the main character and the song played on the radio.
- Ask questions about their life. How did X event affect them? What happened in their life before the start of the book? Don’t just focus on things that relate to the story or are useful plot wise: think about the first time they crossed the monkey bars and the first time they saw their parents fight. While these may not relate directly to the plot, knowing who your character is before, at the beginning and during the book helps you work out who they are and who they will become (I’ll touch more on this later)
Side characters
- Write diary entries OR scenes from a different POV. One of the ways I finally started figuring out the voice of Kate, one of my favorite characters in my WIP, I wrote a bunch of scenes prior to the plot of the book in first person. I wrote about the Superhuman League through her eyes and about her in high school. I discovered a lot of things writing that that now help me see how she reacts to the current events of the WIP. In my first draft, I had her act according to how I needed the story to move along. Now, after getting to know her a little better, I can edit scenes with how she as a human would react instead of a plot device.
- Life outside the plot. Okay, so side characters are not supposed to be the in the starlight so maybe we tend to leave them to the side. BUT, knowing who they are outside of the story is helpful to make them human. Yes, maybe they’re just plot devices to the MC, but in their story, they are the main character. The plot is happening to them as much as it happens to the MC
- Along with the last point, how would the story play out if they were the MC? Who would be the villain? How would they deal with the tough choices? Would they agree with the MC or would they be an adversary? If they were the MC, what would the plot of the book be? I say this because different people and characters have different goals.
Another example from my WIP lol: for Marty, her goal is to uncover Chaos. Subconsciously she sees helping the Superhuman League as a way to make up for best friend’s death. To her, the end goal is to defeat the Primordials to redeem herself and use her “dangerous” powers for good. However, for Aaron, the point of the plot is to defeat the Primordials so he can finally leave his home without feeling as though he abandoned his duties. Unlike Marty, who is desperate to stay, his main goal is to leave. That’s what drives him, and this drive is what has helped me develop his voice in the past two drafts (because he was a VERY flat character before).
The most important thing to remember when developing voice, regardless of if it’s for a main or a side character, is that they are more than just the plot. You need to think of your characters as real people with hopes and dreams. In their world, they weren’t born to be a Character in a story. They were born to be a human.
How does it work
Okay, so let’s say you know your characters well enough and you’ve written a few drafts already. How does this actually work? The most obvious is to integrate it into dialogue. We express the most through words and it’s easiest to show voice through how they say things, when they say it and why they say them. BUT you can also incorporate it into actions. A character who YOU (the author) know has a fear of dogs wouldn’t stop to pet one in the street because the owner will be important later on. Instead, maybe they’ll inch away and jump if the dog barks at them. This can also make the owner of the dog apologize, therefore introducing him to the story.
The only problem with integrating voice later on is that it requires a lot of editing. I’ve had to delete entire chapters because I developed Marty’s voice and some events didn’t align with who she was, they were only there for plot reasons. In a lot of my older drafts, Marty appeared “unstable” and changed her mind a lot. This was because she didn’t have a clear voice in my head so instead I had her do things that were convenient for me as the writer. Still, it’s annoying but it’s gratifying.
Don’t become obsessed
I will say, it’s easy to know all these details and become obsessed with every character speaking and acting perfectly according to their backstory. To this I say that people sometimes act out of character as well. Different factors influence us all the time and make us do things we wouldn’t normally do, so don’t feel obligated to perfectly nail the voice. It’s okay if characters deviate from who they are sometimes, so long as they aren’t constantly changing and contradicting who they’ve been the entire time.
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weeklygamereview · 6 years ago
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Kingdom Hearts Union χ[Cross] and fundamental failure
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     How do you judge a free-to-play mobile RPG? The kind with stamina timers, premium currency, and a "gashapon" that randomly dispenses characters and weapons? If you expect hours of uninterrupted play requiring dextrous, precise inputs, you're better off with a console game. But not even most portable console games can give you a satisfying play session within a lunch break, and most every mobile game can.
     Although they're all intimately tied to a predatory monetization model, there's something special about a perpetual game on your phone. I hold fond memories of when Terra Battle or Tales of the Rays supplemented my life with structured play and planted a hobbyistic fervor in my mind with their clever, streamlined battle systems. There were post-launch story chapters and limited time events to frequently test my mettle, and when I just wanted to unwind, I was able to grind with easy content that didn't require my full attention. Despite some bursts of compulsive play and frustration with unlucky pulls, I felt I had mutualistic relationships with them.
    My time spent with Kingdom Hearts Union χ[Cross] on Android, however, was largely parasitic. It neither provides stimulating enough combat to fully engross nor allows for the relaxing, hands-off play of an idle game. So, KHUX fails to provide the base pleasures of free-to-play mobile RPGs.
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This game was first known as Kingdom Hearts χ[chi] on browser and originally for mobile as Kingdom Hearts Unchained χ, changing to its current name with a new co-op mode so unremarkable I neglect to mention it elsewhere in this review.
    Battles are turn-based, and each of your attacks is derived from a medal (the primary gashapon item) slotted into your keyblade. You can tap on the screen to attack a single target, swipe the screen for a weaker attack that hits all foes, or swipe a medal to activate its special attack (they're officially named special attacks) requiring the use of a resource gauge called... "gauge." These always deal damage and may heal, grant buffs and debuffs, restore gauge, or grant ailments. Whenever you attack, the current medal rotates out to the next one until you've used each once.
    Now, streamlining gets a bad rap. It's often associated with dumbing down instead of refinement. But there are so many mobile games that take advantage of their simplicity to make accessible depth. Just look at Puzzle & Dragon, the mobile puzzle RPG that requires thought and skill surpassing many of its pure action puzzler peers. In its case, shrinking the game board and allowing the free movement of pieces makes it easier to read a board WHILE offering superior board manipulation than the average match 3 (meaning more combos that you meant to make and less that come by chance). That's successful streamlining.
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    The medal system, unfortunately, doesn't use its simplicity for such an end. Each of your 3-7 medals must be activated one after the other in clockwise order starting with the first; your sequence of attacks is predetermined for every fight once you enter a stage. There's no dexterity or timing required for inputs. Ailments (largely useless) and enemy attack patterns are the only sources of randomization within combat, so there is no risk/reward dynamic.... and no choice. You either have enough gauge for a special attack or you don't. You either came with enough damage and healing to last or you didn't.
    Though there's something resembling insight in the 1 Turn Triumph mechanic. You normally regain gauge piecemeal from damage dealt, but a 1 Turn Triumphs allow you to gain back multiple counts of gauge as long as you defeat enemies in a single turn. This requires consideration of enemy and medal attributes (red beats green beats blue) and damage distribution (single target or AoE). Clearing all enemies in a single turn is the most common requirement for objectives, optional achievements that grant currencies for character progression and the gashapon. Normally, you regain enough gauge to use special attacks at every opportunity, so you have to get a feel for how much damage you need to take out enemy formations in 1 turn, which will help you grind up enough gauge to defeat the stage boss.
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Sometimes, the same objective is repeated... within the same mission. Why?
    The battle design is self aware of where mobile RPGs most disappoint; they can't make stages significantly challenging to complete without seeming to have a paywall, but if it's too easy, hardcore players will become disinterested. The game attempts to address this by assigning three objectives to each stage. These might require you to defeat all enemies in 1 turn, defeat bosses in a certain number of turns, or restrict which medals you may use to on attribute. So, allowing bad players to clear stages effortlessly while offering optional objectives accommodates everyone! Hooray! The game is designed, even at high levels, around players arranging their medals in the correct sequence before stages start instead of expecting them to think turn-by-turn. I find this to be a legitimate design decision for mobile (and console RPGs like Final Fantasy XII, for that matter). I hate it, but I respect it; it lets you take a laid-back approach to character management before battle and enjoy the results of your fine-tuned set-up.
    Unfortunately, the game doesn't let you play effortlessly thanks to the lack of a true auto-battle. There's an auto setting that uses special abilities for you, of course, but it doesn't move you throughout the stage. You must navigate environments and encounter foes by laboriously sliding your finger across the screen—not with a virtual joystick, but across your entire screen.
    There are mobile games that get away without auto-battle. For example, Fate Grand Order doesn't have basic attacks, and its skills are cooldown based or can expend variable amounts of meter for increased damage. A simple auto-battle routine couldn't easily tell whether you want to charge limit breaks, gain critical stars, burst down enemies, or activate unique character skills; the game is too complicated for it. Puzzle & Dragon wouldn't make sense with one in the same way an auto-play option wouldn't make sense for Bejeweled. But these two games are much more demanding, one for optimal order sequencing and the other with its puzzle board. You know, actively, traditionally-for-a-video-game engaging.
    There's so little to this game's combat in the first place that I find it excruciating to manually navigate through its environments. They're expertly illustrated. Beautiful, even! But they work against the mindless, chill grind the battle system is meant to facilitate. The novelty of their beauty fades as you're forced to balance your phone in one hand and scrub dramatically across your entire widescreen phone to go from left to right and back again (how I wish it had a virtual joystick so I could play with one hand!). By the way, you have to touch and hold at the far edges of the screen to reach full speed. There’s an option to tap at a location, but the player character will vary its running speed depending on the distance away. It’s always a pain to perform movement, which doesn’t even factor into combat itself and often takes up more time than battle within a stage.
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Keep in mind you have to scrub through this entire map dozens of stages in a row to clear the most common objective (defeat all enemies in 1 turn) at this scale:
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     If you're not used to playing mobile games, this might sound like a ridiculous complaint. But when the core combat is just an excuse to grind and make numbers go up, a shallow vessel to deliver the Good Chemical, it wears you down. Like, imagine if Cookie Clicker lacked store items that automatically produced cookies. KHUX is that kind of contradiction, a game designed to be passive that demands your attention in irritating, frequent pulses, an inconvenient hand cramp of a game.
    There are more ways to play, extra mechanics, a baffling pet system... I won't go into everything the game has to offer, but know that they provide no depth to combat or medal management, merely complication. But I want to go over the main means of progression in the game: Guilt.
    You level up medals to increase their power. You level up medals by fusing them together, losing all medals used to level the other. Their maximum level increases as their rarity increases. You can increases their rarity rank with materials you can grind for in daily objectives. I'll assume you understand how this kind of system works. Yet the game won't settle for this tried-and-true progression loop. It introduced the Guilt system.
    So, every time you fuse identical medals together, the remaining one gets an orb (yes, it's just called an orb). The medals MUST be identical in both name and rarity. If the medal has any orbs, those are transferred to the base medal. If a 6* rarity medal (the rarest and most powerful rarity) gets all its orbs filled plus one, it rolls for a Guilt value. The Guilt value bestows a random percent bonus to damage up to 150%. Guilt value on the rarest of medals can range from 70% to 150%. What happens if you're unlucky and roll a 70%? Well, better go to the gashapon and pray for a copy! Even then, you might get a 71% and wasted a powerful medal. Good job!
    The community encourages players to Guilt medals that drop freely through the story. This is the optimal sequencing of medal fusion to Guilt one of these medals:
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        You need to, at minimum, 39 medals of the same name at different quantities for each rarity, AND all of the medals required to increase their rarity, AND all of the medals to level them up. If you don't do it in this exact sequence, you're wasting dozens of material medals and hours of time. It's absolutely absurd.
    The game, of course, severely limits the amount of medals you can carry unless you pay with the premium currency. Even the joy of 10x gashapon rolls were tainted by the hidden tax of inventory expansion. Collecting medals should be fun. Collecting medals is what makes you want to spend money. Collecting and arranging medals is all the game is, really. And it's always accompanied with grueling, tedious inventory management that does nothing but stress me out!
    I haven't even gotten to the power balance of medals. In short: it's whackadoodle. After making so much effort to Guilt my common 1* Stitch medals, I got lucky as a F2P player and rolled Illustrated Xion (EX). A single use of the medal buffs your damage with itself and all other medals by over 200% for multiple turns, refills more gauges than it takes to spend, and consequently breaks the majority of content over its knee. I never once, ONCE, in the entirety of the main story, had to manually choose which special abilities to activate to conserve gauge. And I had to manually move my character all the while, find an enemy, wait for the elaborate attack animations to cease, and start again. I stopped caring about clearing objectives; I was powerful enough to clear all of the story's content without bothering.
     Other games use cost systems to prevent the abuse of rare medals at early player level, only allowing the use of one or two of the rarest kind of character or weapon. Due to a variety of factors involving the pace of progression, this did not factor in at all. Even without using all of my most powerful medals at once, Illustrated Xion (EX) was enough to utterly break what was meant to be a pacey, early-player experience. I ruined the game by getting a favorable gashapon roll. This is a fundamental failure in the design of randomized collectibles in a game I haven’t seen since the early days of mobile gaming. This has been solved for years.
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   By the way: I only started playing to see where the story would go. The community has reached a consensus that the plot only begins to develop significantly after stage 350, months and months after release. I would say it actually picks up in the early 300s, but by the time I got to the good parts, I was too bored out of my gourd to continue despite being greatly intrigued.
     The game has built its entire postgame around the use of medals like Illustrated Xion (EX) that make all previous game content trivial. Half a year after introducing the first medal of this type, Illustrated Kairi (EX), there is now a permanent budget gashapon that has a paltry chances to drop these buff medals as a way to allow the unluckiest of players access to postgame. But I'll tell you: the postgame isn't worth it. It's a skilless test of how lucky you are or how irresponsibly you spend money. And if you can access it, your medals are too strong to enjoy any other content. There are no objectives asking you to bringing low-rarity medals to otherwise increase challenge. There is a Proud Mode variant for many story stages, but these have such strict restrictions that I could barely clear any of them (the most common of which restricts special attack use to medals that have been Guilted AND have a Guilt value exceeding a certain amount, which isn't nearly as hard as it is expensive). Even verifiable trash like Fire Emblem clone Phantom of the Kill has objectives requiring low-rarity characters to provide some bracing challenges.
    In conclusion, Kingdom Hearts Union χ[Cross] fails to provide what I seek from a mobile game on a basic level: relaxation or engagement. It fails to relax me thanks to its hand-cramping map navigation and the oppressive inventory management. It fails to engage with its battle system because it's designed to be largely effortless and relaxing. It is a frustrating waste of time as a time waster.
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androidskit-blog · 5 years ago
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Sony Xperia 1 with camera review
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Sony Xperia 1 with camera review, People buy flagship phones as much for the cameras as for any other feature. Nearly every premium device from the likes of Huawei, LG, and Samsung has stepped up the game to include not one or two, but three cameras. The standard configuration for a modern flagship is now a high-quality primary lens, an optical telephoto lens, and a wide-angle lens. This applies to the Sony Xperia 1, which the electronics company is just now getting to market.  If you’re interested in learning everything there is to know about the Sony Xperia 1, check out our full review here. The purpose of this article is to dive deep into the camera situation and assess whether or not Sony can keep up. 
Camera app
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Sony’s camera app is powerful but perplexing. It contains the vast majority of advanced features flagship phone buyers expect, yet there are some glaring omissions.  Let’s start with the dedicated camera button. Yes, the Xperia 1 has a physical shutter key, located where you expect to find it on the top right corner (when holding the phone sideways.) The button is a subtle two-stage key. Press it very lightly and the camera will focus on the subject. Press it all the way to fire off a shot. The difference between pressing the button gently and all the way is minimal. You can easily just smash the key down all the way when you intend to focus first.  Alternately, you can do what we’re all using to do at this point: touch the screen where you want the camera to focus and then tap the software shutter button.  Sony’s AI Cam is enabled by default. You can only ditch it by shifting to manual mode. What I find most frustrating is the lack of control over HDR. HDR functions automatically in AI Cam mode, which is to say you never know whether it is being used or not. The only way to take direct control over HDR is in manual mode. From my perspective, HDR should always be an easy-to-find feature.  A basic on-screen toggle lets you switch between photo and video modes, while a series of controls line the opposite edge for functions such as aspect ratio, bokeh, flash, timer, and settings. Some of these could be easier to grasp. The bokeh tool, for example, is represented by one circle placed behind another. What the what? How does that equate “bokeh”? 
On the whole, the camera app could be simplified quite a lot.  
Jumping from one lens to another should be easier. The camera always launches with the standard/primary camera lens active. A small circle with a “1x” appears on the far right side. Tap it once to switch to the telephoto lens. The small circle then displays a “2x” inside. Tap once more to get to the wide-angle “w” lens. If you press the “1x” for a second, a slider bar appears for zooming between 1x and 2x, and on through to 10x (digitally). No matter what,  you have to press the “w” to get to the wide-angle camera, and it pauses for a second before switching. It’s a confusing and inconsistent system. LG’s camera app is much simpler to decipher in this respect.  A small button under the shutter button lets you access the advanced modes. These include portrait selfie, Google Lens, slow motion, AR effect, manual, creative effect, and panorama. Pick one, and then a little symbol pops up in the corner to tell you which you’re using. There’s no time-lapse mode, nor is there a dedicated portrait mode or even a night mode, which is both frustrating and puzzling.  On the whole, the camera could be simplified and improved quite a lot. 
Daylight
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Any and every camera should excel at daylight shooting when the most light is available. It’s therefore amazing how poorly some perform.  The Xperia 1 is all over the place in daylight situations. All four of these samples have bright and dark regions that aren’t particularly well balanced. What we notice most is the loss of detail in the darker spots, such as the trees in the first image, the sides of the buildings in the second and third images, and the pillars in the fourth. I’m glad the sky isn’t blown out in any of the images.  These are passable shots, but not fantastic ones.  Focus is mostly sharp, and colors are mostly accurate if a bit muted. For example, the yellow and red shades in the second image were brighter in real life.  There isn’t too much noise, nor are compression artifacts obviously visible. These are passable shots, but not fantastic ones. 
Color
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Obtaining good color relies on a mix of things, including proper exposure and white balance. If one or the other is off, colors suffer. Some phone makers, such as Samsung, make up for this by boosting colors in the end results. Sony does not.   Here we see the Xperia 1 at its best. The top two images turned out spectacularly well with rich, bright, accurate colors. There is no banding, and the transitions between shades are smooth. These images look exactly like what I remember seeing on the streets of New York City. Color me impressed (pun intended).  You can see all the color, it’s just not as impressive as the real thing.  The bottom two images are the Sony Xperia 1 camera at its most average. Both appear muted in terms of color tones and exposure. The fourth image is particularly frustrating because the tile mural was well lit and I was standing only a few feet away. You can see all the color, it’s just not as impressive as the real thing.  It’s the inconsistency here that I don’t care for. 
Detail
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Preserving details relies on focus, resolution, and maintaining control over compression and noise.  Once again we’re faced with inconsistency from the Sony Xperia 1 camera. In the top two images, the detail is clear enough that you can read the text in the images, there’s no doubt of that. Too bad neither is properly exposed.  The images with the brushes in the foreground is terrible. Much of the detail in the leaves is lost on close inspection, with the green foliage blending together. It was much easier to tell the individual plants apart in person. The third image also has lots of noise in the sky.  In the last picture, all the parts of the electric meters stand out and you can even tell where the gauges are pointed on the closer units. Here everything comes together, the exposure is on point, and there’s no noise at all. 
Landscape
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When shooting land- or cityscapes, focus and balance are generally what you seek. Three of these images provide those, one does not.  What I like about image 1 is that the green looks rich, the sky is still blue, you can read the text on the sign, and even the darker areas have some detail. Image 2 shows sharp lines, accurate colors, and relatively good detail. Both these images are a bit on the noisy side, with compression artifacts here and there.  Image 3 is a disaster. The phone’s HDR tool completely failed here. The sky is overblown and yet nearly all the detail on the statue is lost because it is underexposed. At least the foliage is green.  The last image turned out fairly well. Despite the strong shadow, there’s lots of texture visible on the right wall compared to the fully sunlit left wall. You can see all the bricks and the sky is blue. There is still far too much noise.
Portrait
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Fancy, effects-laden portrait shooting is all the rage these days. Many of today’s flagships include modes specifically for taking artful shots of our friends and family.   In order to take portrait images such as these, you need to use the Xperia 1’s bokeh shooting tool. It’s not called “Portrait Mode” and there aren’t advanced tools such as studio lighting — another shortcoming of the camera app when compared to Samsung, Huawei, and others.  The phone did do a decent job of outlining my profile cleanly and blurring out the background. I like that you can select the amount of background blur. In images 1 and 3, however, I look like I was artificially added to the pictures via PhotoShop. The second and fourth images look more natural. Exposure in all these shots is good, and I don’t see too much noise.  I’m flummoxed that there’s no actual portrait mode, which might make capturing these a touch easier. 
 HDR
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HDR shots generally blend several exposures to create a balanced whole, with detail visible in both bright and dark regions. The Xperia 1 struggles with HDR across the board.  Images 1 and 4 are total failures of HDR. In the first, all the detail in the trees behind the fountain is lost due to underexposure. In the fourth, the top half of the image should have been bright with daylight and is instead dark and dreary. What is going on here, Sony? 
It's evident that Sony's HDR algorithms need more tuning. 
The second and third images are more balanced. They are each noisy, but at least the light and dark regions are better preserved. The second shot is particularly challenging because it has natural and artificial light mixed in a dark indoor environment. Some detail is lost on the second level, but this exposure is still fairly accurate. In the third pic, I appreciate that the blue sky is visible in the windows at all and that there’s some shading to the wooden roof far above the staircase.  In all, however, it’s evident that Sony’s HDR algorithms need more tuning. 
Low light
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One of the biggest omissions of the Sony Xperia 1 camera is any sort of night mode. Sure, the AI Cam senses low light situations and takes steps to mitigate the exposure, but there isn’t a dedicated mode for shooting in the near dark. That’s a serious boo-boo considering phones such as the Huawei P30 Pro can practically see in pitch black night.  All four of these images were taken post-sunset. The first, just after sunset, has a reasonable amount of detail in the trees, but the sky is overblown. The colors are about right. The second image actually turned out pretty well, and was true to the scene. Shame about the noise. The third image may be accurate, but is soft.  The last image is clearly a stinker. For this, the camera took several seconds to capture the shot and we can still barely see what’s going on. The subject stands out, but the darker portions of the background are completely gone.  Without an explicit low-light or night mode, the Xperia 1 trails the competition. The Google Pixel 3a XL, which costs half as much, delivers far superior results. 
Selfie
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All the Xperia 1’s portrait powers are found under the purview of the selfie camera. You can add effects, dial-in skin correction, make your eyes larger or your face thinner, and adjust the lighting. I captured these samples under a variety of conditions, including bright sunlight, indoors, and at nighttime. The results speak for themselves.  The first two images, which were aided by sunlight, turned out well. The focus is good, colors are accurate, and things look pretty much as they did when the photos were taken.  Things are a bit different in the third and fourth images. You can see that my face is a bit softer in the third image and the brick wall behind me looks a bit washed out. The last picture is a mess. Though it wasn’t that dark out, the Xperia 1 used the screen flash to light me up. While my face is properly exposed, the background is almost lost completely. Moreover, my face looks incredibly soft.  On a whole, I’d call these average selfie shots at best. 
Video
Flagship phones need to be able to capture 4K video, full stop. While we’d prefer to see 60fps, we can deal with 30fps which is where the Xperia 1 camera tops out.   I captured a variety of video with the Xperia 1 in 4K and Full HD (the latter in 60fps). It may be hard for your eyes to really see the difference between the two, but the 4K footage from Sony impressed. I was pleased with the way the phone captured motion smoothly, despite the fact that I was moving around. Moreover, the phone’s sensors are better able to adapt to changes in lighting when recording video.   Here, the Xperia 1 matches the competition. 
Conclusion
As I said in my full Sony Xperia 1 review, I’m stunned at how poorly the Xperia 1’s camera performs. Not only is it not up to snuff when compared to other flagships, such as the Samsung Galaxy S10, Huawei P30 Pro, and Google Pixel 3 XL, it doesn’t even compare to the budget Google Pixel 3a XL. It’s hard to recommend a $949 phone when a $479 phone beats the snot out of it in the core category of photography.   The bottom line, if you thought Sony’s adoption of the triple-camera setup would lead to a dramatic improvement in imaging quality, I’m here to tell you that’s not the case.    Read the full article
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samuelfields · 6 years ago
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Average Consumer Expenditure Per Year Proves Americans Are Living The Dream
We know the average spending for American households over the age of 65 is a surprisingly high $45,756 a year or $3,800 a month according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Given the average Social Security benefit is only $17,532 a year, or $1,461 a month, the average retiree likely has a significant amount of retirement savings in order to account for the missing $2,339 a month.
With no debt, life in retirement is quite comfortable for current Americans in traditional retirement age.
But how much is the average expenditure across all ages? Surely, the average American can’t be spending too much while working in order to have so much in retirement. Let’s take a look at the latest available data from the BLS.
Average Consumer Expenditure
Surprisingly, the average expenditure per consumer unit for 2017 was $60,060, a 4.8% increase from 2016 levels. During the same period, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.1%, and average pretax incomes decreased slightly by 1.5%.
Eight of the 10 largest components of household spending increased during 2017. The 12.2% rise in education spending was the largest percentage increase among all major components, followed by a 10% rise in entertainment.
Take a look at the BLS data below and we’ll go through most of the line items in more detail.
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https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm
Average Income: $73,573
Although average income declined by 1.5% from 2016-2017, $73,573 is still a pretty healthy amount compared to the median income in America of ~$62,000.
With the median home price in America at roughly $225,000, it’s good to see the home price-to-income ratio is still quite reasonable at 3:1.
In some cities around the country, however, the median home price is often 10X or greater the median or average income. For example, the San Francisco median income is $97,000 versus $1,500,000 for the median home price = 15X.
Savvy investors should consider adopting my Buy Utility, Rent Luxury (BURL) Strategy to potentially improve their real estate investment returns. There may be some narrowing of valuations over the longer term thanks to technology and migration shifts.
Average Effective Federal Tax Rate: 12.89%
If you punch in the average income of $73,573 into an income tax calculator, you will see that the marginal federal tax rate is 22% and the effective tax rate is 12.89%.
Given the maximum taxable amount for FICA is $132,900 for 2019, the average income earning household pays the full 7.65% FICA amount.
If the average household lives in one of the seven no state income tax states, then their total effective tax rate is 20.54% (Federal + FICA).
If the average American household lives in a high income tax state such as California, they would pay an estimated 25.55% effective tax rate, or $18,800 in taxes on their average $73,573 income.
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Tax is likely your largest ongoing liability, especially if most of your income comes from W2 wages. Instead, think about earning investment income that is often taxed at a lower rate.
As soon as an individual starts making over $38,701, their long-term capital gains tax rate falls below their marginal Federal income tax rate.
Tumblr media
In addition to earning more efficient investment income and rental income, consider earning business income. Business income can be shielded by various business deductions.
Just ask Jeff Bezos how his company, Amazon, was able to earn $11.2 billion in profits in 2018 while paying zero income taxes.
Average Cash Flow: Negative
Given the average expenditure per year is $60,060, the average American household is spending all their income and then some.
If the average American household lives in a high income tax state, then they have an average negative cash flow of $5,287 a year ($60,060 – $54,773 in after-tax income).
If the average American household lives in a no income tax state, then they are going into debt by $1,601 ($60,060 – $58,459 after-tax income).
Negative cash flow is likely the reason why average household debt continues to march to record highs.
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Good thing debt as a percentage of disposable personal income continues to stay at multi-decade lows. The below graph shows the average American consumer should be able to withstand a negative economic shock better than during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
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Average Food Spending: $7,729
$644 a month on food seems reasonable. What’s unreasonable is the growing obesity epidemic in our country that is putting a great strain on our health care system.
According to the Center for Disease Control, about 610,000 people die of heart disease in the United States every year–that’s 1 in every 4 deaths. Heart disease is the leading cause of death for both men and women. And obesity is the leading cause of heart disease.
Average Housing Expenditure: $19,884
Seeing a 5.3% YoY jump in average housing expenditure is extremely concerning since inflation averages roughly +2% a year. If you look at the line items under Housing Expenditure, you’ll see Owned Dwellings +10.4% YoY and Rented Dwellings +3.3% YoY.
Whichever line item you want to focus on, such large increases in housing expenditures is the main reason why I encourage all of us to get neutral real estate by owning your primary residence.
Over the long run, you will lose out as a renter because inflation is too nasty a beast to conquer. By at least getting neutral, you can ride the inflation wave while paying down your mortgage.
Transportation: $9,576
Spending $798 a month on transportation for the average American is such an incredible waste of money.
According to Kelley Blue Book, the average car price has surged to $36,000, which likely accounts for why Americans are spending so much on transportation.
Meanwhile, auto loan delinquencies have reached 19-year highs, despite a strong economy. A record 7 million Americans are 90 days or more behind on their auto loan payments, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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Health Care: $4,928
I’m pleased to see the average American household is only spending $411 a month in health care thanks to employer subsidies. The average health care spend makes the average transportation spend of $798 seem that much more ridiculous.
What’s concerning about the average health care spend is the rate of growth. From 2016 – 2017, the spend rate increased by 6.9% after experiencing a 6.2% annual growth rate in the year prior.
At an annual 6%+ growth rate, we should expect the average health care expenditure to double in just 11-12 years.
Entertainment: $3,203
Spending $267 a month on entertainment for the average household is quite reasonable. With cheap video streaming, low cost internet, affordable mobile phones, and loads of free entertainment online, we are spoiled with multiple low cost options.
The 10% YoY growth in entertainment spending is very high, which probably is a reflection of strong consumer confidence.
Personal Insurance and Pensions: $6,353
The average household is spending 10.6% of their annual spending on Pension and Social Security.
When we add back the $6,353 a month in Pension and Social Security spending (saving) to the $1,601 – $5,287 negative cash flow, the average American is technically saving $1,066 – $4,752 a year, or 1.45% – 6.45% of their average gross income.
As you can see from the chart below, the current personal savings rate according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is 6%, which is in-line with the 1.45% – 6.45% range I’ve just calculated.
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It never occurred to me the government categorizes Personal Insurance and Pensions as savings, since most do not have pensions and many see FICA as simply a welfare tax. Therefore, for those who think the same way, there may be a nice upside surprise to our finances when we reach traditional retirement age.
The Average American Is Living A Great Life
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If the average consumer can spend $60,060 a year while working and still spend $45,756 a year after the age of 65, it’s clear the average American is doing very well.
The easiest expense to reduce is Transportation at $9,576 a year. With the growing popularity of ridesharing and the invention of self-driving cars within the next 5-10 years, I expect transportation cost to start going down as more and more Americans shun owning vehicles.
At the very least, I see the average household reducing the number of vehicles in their driveways.
With $2,010 a year spent in the All Other Expenditures category, the average American household has also allotted a decent buffer for miscellaneous expenses. As we all know, something always comes up.
For those of you who are determined to reach financial independence and stay financially independent, the data says we are likely spending too little and saving too much.
If the average American can save just 1.45% – 6.45% and live the good life, surely the average personal finance enthusiast who is saving 20% – 50%+ of their income while also building a significant passive income portfolio will do just fine.
Social Security is doing a better-than-expected job at keeping the average American afloat. If you are dubious about the government’s ability to pay back its people in retirement, it’s worth running a new set of retirement calculations. Chances are you’re in better financial shape than you realize.
Readers, what are your thoughts about the average consumer expenditure? Based on the figures, why do politicians and the media paint the average American in dire straits? It seems clear our social safety net and financial habits are good enough to support the average consumer while working and in retirement. Are you as bullish on America’s economy as I am?
The post Average Consumer Expenditure Per Year Proves Americans Are Living The Dream appeared first on Financial Samurai.
from Finance https://www.financialsamurai.com/the-average-consumer-expenditure-in-america/ via http://www.rssmix.com/
0 notes
ronaldmrashid · 6 years ago
Text
Average Consumer Expenditure Per Year Proves Americans Are Living The Dream
We know the average spending for American households over the age of 65 is a surprisingly high $45,756 a year or $3,800 a month according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Given the average Social Security benefit is only $17,532 a year, or $1,461 a month, the average retiree likely has a significant amount of retirement savings in order to account for the missing $2,339 a month.
With no debt, life in retirement is quite comfortable for current Americans in traditional retirement age.
But how much is the average expenditure across all ages? Surely, the average American can’t be spending too much while working in order to have so much in retirement. Let’s take a look at the latest available data from the BLS.
Average Consumer Expenditure
Surprisingly, the average expenditure per consumer unit for 2017 was $60,060, a 4.8% increase from 2016 levels. During the same period, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.1%, and average pretax incomes decreased slightly by 1.5%.
Eight of the 10 largest components of household spending increased during 2017. The 12.2% rise in education spending was the largest percentage increase among all major components, followed by a 10% rise in entertainment.
Take a look at the BLS data below and we’ll go through most of the line items in more detail.
Tumblr media
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm
Average Income: $73,573
Although average income declined by 1.5% from 2016-2017, $73,573 is still a pretty healthy amount compared to the median income in America of ~$62,000.
With the median home price in America at roughly $225,000, it’s good to see the home price-to-income ratio is still quite reasonable at 3:1.
In some cities around the country, however, the median home price is often 10X or greater the median or average income. For example, the San Francisco median income is $97,000 versus $1,500,000 for the median home price = 15X.
Savvy investors should consider adopting my Buy Utility, Rent Luxury (BURL) Strategy to potentially improve their real estate investment returns. There may be some narrowing of valuations over the longer term thanks to technology and migration shifts.
Average Effective Federal Tax Rate: 12.89%
If you punch in the average income of $73,573 into an income tax calculator, you will see that the marginal federal tax rate is 22% and the effective tax rate is 12.89%.
Given the maximum taxable amount for FICA is $132,900 for 2019, the average income earning household pays the full 7.65% FICA amount.
If the average household lives in one of the seven no state income tax states, then their total effective tax rate is 20.54% (Federal + FICA).
If the average American household lives in a high income tax state such as California, they would pay an estimated 25.55% effective tax rate, or $18,800 in taxes on their average $73,573 income.
Tumblr media
Tax is likely your largest ongoing liability, especially if most of your income comes from W2 wages. Instead, think about earning investment income that is often taxed at a lower rate.
As soon as an individual starts making over $38,701, their long-term capital gains tax rate falls below their marginal Federal income tax rate.
Tumblr media
In addition to earning more efficient investment income and rental income, consider earning business income. Business income can be shielded by various business deductions.
Just ask Jeff Bezos how his company, Amazon, was able to earn $11.2 billion in profits in 2018 while paying zero income taxes.
Average Cash Flow: Negative
Given the average expenditure per year is $60,060, the average American household is spending all their income and then some.
If the average American household lives in a high income tax state, then they have an average negative cash flow of $5,287 a year ($60,060 – $54,773 in after-tax income).
If the average American household lives in a no income tax state, then they are going into debt by $1,601 ($60,060 – $58,459 after-tax income).
Negative cash flow is likely the reason why average household debt continues to march to record highs.
Tumblr media
Good thing debt as a percentage of disposable personal income continues to stay at multi-decade lows. The below graph shows the average American consumer should be able to withstand a negative economic shock better than during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
Tumblr media
Average Food Spending: $7,729
$644 a month on food seems reasonable. What’s unreasonable is the growing obesity epidemic in our country that is putting a great strain on our health care system.
According to the Center for Disease Control, about 610,000 people die of heart disease in the United States every year–that’s 1 in every 4 deaths. Heart disease is the leading cause of death for both men and women. And obesity is the leading cause of heart disease.
Average Housing Expenditure: $19,884
Seeing a 5.3% YoY jump in average housing expenditure is extremely concerning since inflation averages roughly +2% a year. If you look at the line items under Housing Expenditure, you’ll see Owned Dwellings +10.4% YoY and Rented Dwellings +3.3% YoY.
Whichever line item you want to focus on, such large increases in housing expenditures is the main reason why I encourage all of us to get neutral real estate by owning your primary residence.
Over the long run, you will lose out as a renter because inflation is too nasty a beast to conquer. By at least getting neutral, you can ride the inflation wave while paying down your mortgage.
Transportation: $9,576
Spending $798 a month on transportation for the average American is such an incredible waste of money.
According to Kelley Blue Book, the average car price has surged to $36,000, which likely accounts for why Americans are spending so much on transportation.
Meanwhile, auto loan delinquencies have reached 19-year highs, despite a strong economy. A record 7 million Americans are 90 days or more behind on their auto loan payments, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Tumblr media
Health Care: $4,928
I’m pleased to see the average American household is only spending $411 a month in health care thanks to employer subsidies. The average health care spend makes the average transportation spend of $798 seem that much more ridiculous.
What’s concerning about the average health care spend is the rate of growth. From 2016 – 2017, the spend rate increased by 6.9% after experiencing a 6.2% annual growth rate in the year prior.
At an annual 6%+ growth rate, we should expect the average health care expenditure to double in just 11-12 years.
Entertainment: $3,203
Spending $267 a month on entertainment for the average household is quite reasonable. With cheap video streaming, low cost internet, affordable mobile phones, and loads of free entertainment online, we are spoiled with multiple low cost options.
The 10% YoY growth in entertainment spending is very high, which probably is a reflection of strong consumer confidence.
Personal Insurance and Pensions: $6,353
The average household is spending 10.6% of their annual spending on Pension and Social Security.
When we add back the $6,353 a month in Pension and Social Security spending (saving) to the $1,601 – $5,287 negative cash flow, the average American is technically saving $1,066 – $4,752 a year, or 1.45% – 6.45% of their average gross income.
As you can see from the chart below, the current personal savings rate according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is 6%, which is in-line with the 1.45% – 6.45% range I’ve just calculated.
Tumblr media
It never occurred to me the government categorizes Personal Insurance and Pensions as savings, since most do not have pensions and many see FICA as simply a welfare tax. Therefore, for those who think the same way, there may be a nice upside surprise to our finances when we reach traditional retirement age.
The Average American Is Living A Great Life
Tumblr media
If the average consumer can spend $60,060 a year while working and still spend $45,756 a year after the age of 65, it’s clear the average American is doing very well.
The easiest expense to reduce is Transportation at $9,576 a year. With the growing popularity of ridesharing and the invention of self-driving cars within the next 5-10 years, I expect transportation cost to start going down as more and more Americans shun owning vehicles.
At the very least, I see the average household reducing the number of vehicles in their driveways.
With $2,010 a year spent in the All Other Expenditures category, the average American household has also allotted a decent buffer for miscellaneous expenses. As we all know, something always comes up.
For those of you who are determined to reach financial independence and stay financially independent, the data says we are likely spending too little and saving too much.
If the average American can save just 1.45% – 6.45% and live the good life, surely the average personal finance enthusiast who is saving 20% – 50%+ of their income while also building a significant passive income portfolio will do just fine.
Social Security is doing a better-than-expected job at keeping the average American afloat. If you are dubious about the government’s ability to pay back its people in retirement, it’s worth running a new set of retirement calculations. Chances are you’re in better financial shape than you realize.
Readers, what are your thoughts about the average consumer expenditure? Based on the figures, why do politicians and the media paint the average American in dire straits? It seems clear our social safety net and financial habits are good enough to support the average consumer while working and in retirement. Are you as bullish on America’s economy as I am?
The post Average Consumer Expenditure Per Year Proves Americans Are Living The Dream appeared first on Financial Samurai.
from https://www.financialsamurai.com/the-average-consumer-expenditure-in-america/
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rightquestionsrighttime · 6 years ago
Text
New Post has been published on Class Acts
New Post has been published on http://classacts.org/motivation-for-entrepreneurs-twenty-seven-critical-secrets-to-becoming-unstoppable-even-if-youre-feeling-stuck-lifestyle-design-success-book-2/
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madisonrooney · 8 years ago
Text
i was preparing myself for it but that doesnt mean im not heartbroken
i got a call from my friend telling me and i just
im gonna lose my two favorite shows in a matter of months
and these are more than my two favorite shows, these are like, it. my main interests and focuses for a good two years now. and when i have something like that i pour EVERYTHING into them. do you know elated i was when LAM came into my life? much of the reason its so special to me is bc it was the first thing id felt passionate about after suffering thru abuse and depression
ive mentioned this before when talking about LAM ending but the only experience i have going thru a show ending was with hannah montana and that was right around when all the awful stuff in my life was beginning to brew and everything just continued to get worse after it ended. so its almost triggering for me to have to go through that again. my life is fantastic now, the COMPLETE opposite of what it was then, so consciously, i know lifes not gonna go to shit afterwards, but i know its gonna be hard to deal with in the moment.
i know i can say ‘just bc its over doesnt mean you cant still love it!’ and ofc thats true. im never gonna stop loving either of these shows, but no matter how hard i try, it does get harder when theyre not on. it happened with hannah montana. even during hiatuses i find myself drifting, despite how much i hate doing that.
but this post isnt trying to be a ‘OH MY GOD SERIOUSLY!?!??! NOW MY LIFE IS 10X WORSE!!!!!!’ bc honestly, i was emotionally preparing myself for this. i had a feeling it was coming. im really just making this post bc i feel obligated to acknowledge what happened.
and the good thing is, i have three primary interests rn and one of them is not leaving but rather coming back and thats descendants!! if i consciously or unconsciously put my all into that, i think ill be just fine. and plus, i still get dove, which is probably the best part of it. i didnt have a fallback at all when HM ended and while i expected to have GMW now, at least i have something
right. back to GMW.
ill probably make a longer post when the finale airs but i am so grateful for all this show has given me and the light its brought to my life. i was fortunate enough to attend 12 live tapings and had so many amazing experiences at them. this show started and developed so many friendships and impacted the lives of all who were a part of them. this show is truly one of a kind and i will herald it with pride as one of my all time favorite shows for as long as i can.
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myrobertallen-blog · 7 years ago
Text
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0 notes
every2piness-blog · 7 years ago
Text
As I leaned against a young tree (all trees are young in this forest), I could feel the anger, disappointment, and shame build, as I contemplated turning around after what was essentially a stroll in the park.  Anger for the conditioning designed to prepare my shins to run again, instead leaving me limping down an easy trail. Disappointment not only for the current backpacking trip ruined but the loss of a full summer’s backpacking trips, trail running left in the dust. Shame for the hubris in believing that a few stretches and strengthening issues could solve an injury plaguing me for years.
You see, I am a rule follower. I like lists, procedures, and routines. I believe most problems can be solved if only the correct formula is found and applied. One of the most difficult parts of this injury has been the endless trying new techniques, procedures, and hypothesis for pain, only to give up again. I thought I had found the perfect formula of strength and flexibility conditioning, applied daily with patience and diligence to mitigate all future injury risk. At that moment, leaning against that tree, I knew that the ways I had managed my injury thus far were not sufficient, and it was time to change strategies.
Last month I talked about how I developed shin splints. As I try to determine what caused my shin splints in the first place, it has been helpful to look back at what I did as treatments pre and post-injury.  I want to share the mostly successful, less successful and downright failed attempts.  Today’s post is the first in the series of steps I have taken to heal my shin splints, covering what I did pre-injury. Later this month, I will cover everything I did after the injury and my experiences seeking professional help.
  First: What Are Shin Splints?
  Shin splints suck and there are a lot of things medical professionals don’t understand about them, which makes fixing them pretty tricky.
Shin splints, also known as medial tibial stress syndrome occurs when there is an inflammation of the muscles, tendons and bone tissue around the tibia. My shin splints were on the inner edge of the shinbone.  Pain included dull, throbbing pain after a hike or upon waking and occasionally a buzzing as if a nerve had been activated. I have heard it referred to as kitten nibbling and it is the most accurate way I have found to describe it. It feels like a small kitten is gnawing on your finger, it kind of hurts, kind of feels itchy and generally feels uncomfortable, but not enough for your body to yell “stop now!” As it progressed, it grew from the kitten nibbles to a persistent dull ache. Now, it aches for a few hours every now and then and limits my hiking abilities.
Last February, after my elbow injury kept me out of the climbing gym, I began preparing to run again. Remembering my previous bout with shin splints, I reinstated my physical therapy to make sure my legs were top-notch before hitting the pavement again. In my case, just doing these preventative exercises was enough to aggravate my original injury.
Unlike other overuse injuries, this round didn’t start with a rapid increase in activity, rather I was doing much less than I had done in the past, while still maintaining fitness. The normal series of treatments for shin splints didn’t seem to be fixing anything and I seem to have relapse after relapse. If this is your first experience with shin splints, I recommend talking to a physical therapist and following all of the normal procedures. If you have been struggling for awhile, and feel like you have tried everything, read on.
  Everything I have tried in an attempt to prevent my shin splints from returning
I have listed everything I did to prevent a shin splint re-injury while returning to running. Each method has a rating from -10 to 10 on how much it helped or hindered my shin splints. 0 is neutral, or no effect, 10 is helped my shin splints and -10 is made them worse.
*Disclaimer I am not a doctor and everything is purely anecdotal. Please listen to your own body and consult a medical professional.
Pre-injury
1. Stretching & Strengthening: -8
I began doing the stretches and strengthening exercises I developed with a physical therapist during my previous injury. This included some ankle movements with a resistance band for strength, calf raises, and calf stretches. Core and full-body exercises were also added 4x a week, to turn my body into a super healthy, mountain-smashing, goal-crushing human. Unfortunately, shin splints don’t care how many planks you did in January.
Resistance band strengthening: 10x/set, 3 sets
Calf raises: 30, 3x a day
2. Extra walking: 0
I walked for 15 minutes three times a day while at work. This was fairly enjoyable on sunny days and made me a more productive worker, but I couldn’t tell a difference in shin pain. I did get to know the rabbits next to my work a lot better, so win?
Tumblr media
3. Swimming as primary form of exercise:-5
As swimming is non-impact and recommended for people suffering from shin splints, I switched my aerobic activity to swimming. I swam 1600 yards three times a week in the mornings. It was wonderful and I loved it until it started to irritate my shins. By summer, flutter kicks were enough to trigger shin pain for a week.
Tumblr media
4. Bought new running shoes: 2
New shoes probably did not make the situation worse but I didn’t notice any changes after switching footwear. My running shoes were old and lost much of their support, but I didn’t start running again until I bought new ones. Old, unsupportive footwear can cause shin splints, so I am diligent about replacing my running shoes regularly.
6. Anti-inflammatory painkillers: 0
This helped with short-term pain management but didn’t seem to have any long-term effect on my shins. Doctors often recommend Ibuprofen or Advil, but my pain was so spotty it was difficult to use pills. I also felt like long-term usage of NSAIDs dulled my ability to determine which treatments were effective and which activities were triggering, so I used painkillers infrequently.
Tumblr media
7. Running warm-ups and cool-downs: 4
Before every run I made sure that my body was warm, to reduce the chances of injury. This included a five-minute yoga-based warm-up, followed by a five-minute walk, then a series of exercises outlined here.
After my run, I followed the same procedure. I walked for five minutes, followed by a series of stretches then a seven-minute yoga series.
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This entire routine was performed for running a quarter mile, which made me feel rather ridiculous. It took 15 minutes to warm up, 25 minutes to cool down and um…3 minutes to run. My self-esteem was not feeling great after going through this entire routine at Greenlake, run a teeny tiny stretch of the lake and then start stretching again.
8. Blissfully enjoying hiking, backpacking and snowshoeing without pain: 0
I wasn’t having any pain on the trail and this point and was enjoying a full range of activities. I was still regularly conditioning my body by doing the activities I loved, without changing the difficulty or frequency, which is often a trigger for overuse injuries. While these activities did not prevent my shin splints, they did serve as a motivating factor in the following months when I was unable to hike.
Summary
Out of all of the strategies I found for preventing shin splints, the only method that proved useful was running warm-ups and cool-downs and new running shoes. Despite feeling shin pain almost immediately after these activities, I know that the alternative was significantly more pain and sooner.
The use of painkillers and extra walking seemed to have a neutral effect and increased walking proved to be more useful for injury recovery, rather than prevention. Lastly, the strengthening and swimming seemed to have a negative effect on my shin splints. Prior to starting these activities, I had minimal shin pain, but both these activities seemed to aggravate old injuries, rather than help prevent new ones. I don’t know if my hiking aggravated my shin splints and I couldn’t tell until my backpacking trip in May, or if it simply wasn’t a factor.
Next month I will be talking about all of the things I tried after the backpacking trip that made it impossible to keep ignoring my shins. When preventative measures stopped being effective, and I realized my shin splints were back with a vengeance, I tried a whole new round of treatment methods, with varying success, that I can’t wait to share them with you. Let me know in the comments if you have any questions!
  Share This [social_warfare]
    8 Preventative Methods for Shin Splints: What Worked and What Didn’t As I leaned against a young tree (all trees are young in this forest), I could feel the anger, disappointment, and shame build, as I contemplated turning around after what was essentially a stroll in the park. 
0 notes
barefoodangel · 7 years ago
Text
Is Hemp Oil Beneficial for You?
This controversial crop has been demonized and defended for at least 80 years in the US due to political factions, special interests, and downright suspicion.
Hemp has been called a plant of “major economic importance” as it grows like a weed, every bit of this ancient plant is useful and valuable, and not just for rope but for textiles, auto parts, cosmetics, dynamite, supplements, food, and medicine.
Valued since ancient times as a fiber source for textiles, the hemp industry eventually made it to the US, where it flourished in the mid-1800s, through World War I and again briefly during World War II, when the war cut off supplies of fiber.
CBD vs THC
Image from LeafScience
There is a difference between hemp and pot.
Researchers from the University of Minnesota’s (U of M) College of Biological Sciences and College of Food, Agricultural, and Natural Resource Sciences belong to one of the few groups of US scientists that have been granted federal clearance to study cannabis.
As noted by Medical Daily, after more than 12 years of research, the team found a single gene that is responsible for the genetic differences between hemp and marijuana.
“While hemp produces a non-euphoric cannabidiol (CBD) with approximately 0.3 to 1.5 percent tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) concentration, marijuana is packed with between five to 10 percent (or even higher) psychoactive THC concentration.”
The cannabis plant makes cannabinoids, also known as phytocannabinoids or plant cannabinoids. This encompasses both CBD (Cannabidiol) and THC (tetrahydrocannabinol).
THC is the psychoactive component of marijuana; it’s the molecule that makes you feel “stoned”. While cannabidiol (CBD) also has certain psychoactive properties, it does NOT produce a high. By legal definition, hemp cannot have more than 0.3 percent tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) in it. So to summarize: It also contains less than 0.3 percent THC, which means it cannot produce a high or get you stoned.
Studies have shown both compounds have important health benefits: THC has antispasmodic, analgesic, anti-tremor, anti-inflammatory, appetite stimulating and anti-emetic properties, and CBD has anti-inflammatory, anticonvulsant, antipsychotic, antioxidant, neuroprotective and immunomodulatory effects.
THC has limited clinical use due to its unwanted psychoactive side effects. This is the main reason why interest in CBD which is non-psychoactive phytocannabinoids has increased in recent years.
Where THC is known for its sleep-inducing effects, CBD appears to promote wakefulness instead.
How did Hemp Get Such a Bad Rap?
According to Dr. Mercola, American industrialists led by newspaper mogul William Randolph Hearst (who owned vast timberlands) and DuPont executives, who’d begun processing petroleum and wood for plastics, became disgruntled by the way hemp cut into their market shares.
A 1994 Vegetarian Times article describes the group’s devastatingly successful tactics for twisting the public’s perception of hemp:
“The plan? Whip the public into a frenzy over ill effects of marijuana, the psychoactive leaves and flowers of the hemp plant; the reputation of the fibers and seeds used by industry would be posing little threat to society emerged as the ‘assassin of youth.’ The strategy worked. In 1937, with virtually no warning, Congress announced a prohibitive tax on hemp, effectively ending the production and sale of the plant in the United States.
“The effects of the ban on growing hemp were widespread. Polluting, nonrenewable petroleum products replaced hemp lubricants and paints and oil… From that point on, hemp was viewed solely as an illegal drug; its role in constructing our national economy was forgotten.”
The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) is still trying to suppress it as best they can. In December 2016, the DEA announced cannabidiol (CBD) is being reclassified as a Schedule 1 controlled substance, putting it on par with LSD and heroin, even though CBD has no psychoactive component. It cannot render you “high”. TreeHugger’s article nailed it: “US Missing Out On Agricultural Millions Because The DEA Can’t Distinguish Hemp From Pot”.
In the US, the cultivation of hemp has been banned since the 1970s when the federal Controlled Substances Act took effect. The law doesn’t distinguish between marijuana, the drug, and hemp, the plant, despite major scientific differences.
The US is the world’s largest consumer of hemp products, yet ironically it is the only industrialized country that also outlaws its production. US hemp products – a more than $600-million market in the US – are imported.
Cannabinoid Receptors Exist Throughout Our Bodies
The human endocannabinoid system — endo meaning “within” — strongly suggests the human organism is actually designed to make good use of the cannabis plant. 
Cannabinoid (CBD) receptors are found throughout the body, primarily in the immune system and the structures associated with healthy immune functioning, among many other functions and body systems. The endocannabinoid system plays a key regulatory role in the human body. For example, there are endocannabinoid receptors in the nervous system, where cannabinoids are made locally on demand. What this means is that in your nervous system, you have sending nerve cells and receiving nerve cells, and the endocannabinoid system works with those cells to maintain balance.
The primary role of the endocannabinoid system is to bring homeostasis to tissues and biological systems. Thus, the endocannabinoid system plays a key regulatory role in the human body.
The marijuana plant triggers something that’s been inside us since the dawn of mankind.
Benefits of Hemp Oil
  According to many doctors including Dr. Margaret Gedde, a Stanford-trained pathologist and award-winning researcher, Cannabinoids may:
Reduce pain and inflammation
Reduce nerve stimulation causing seizures
Reduce muscle spasm and pain by relaxing the muscles
Helps relax and improve sleep
Helps improve gut function
Improve digestive function from disorders such as colitis and inflammatory bowel disease
Relieves nausea and vomiting associated with chemotherapy
Help with glaucoma by reducing the intraocular pressure
Helps normalize blood pressure
Reduces anxiety
Helps with Post-traumatic stress
Helps support immune system to fight cancer and tumor
Helps support blood sugar regulation
Promotes cardiovascular health
Several scientific reports demonstrate CBD’s  benefits. Studies published in show that cannabinoids possess anti-proliferative and pro-apoptotic effects and they are known to interfere with tumour neovascularization, cancer cell migration, adhesion, invasion and metastasization.
A 2006 study published in the Journal of Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics found for the first time that CBD potently and selectively inhibited the growth of different breast tumor cell lines and exhibited significantly less potency in non-cancer cells.
Not only does the research show that CBD benefits including being effective in fighting breast cancer cells, data also suggests that it can be used to inhibit the invasion of lung and colon cancer, plus it possesses anti-tumor properties in gliomas and has been used to treat leukemia.
Safety and side effects study in NCBI suggests that controlled cannabidiol administration is safe and non-toxic in humans and animals. It also does not induce changes in food intake; nor does it affect physiological parameters like heart rate, body temperature or blood pressure. Also, according to this review paper, “high doses up to 1,500 mg/day of CBD are reportedly well tolerated in humans.”
There are very few potential side effects of CBD, these are mostly minor but you should be informed before taking CBD.
CBD can interact with a series of pharmaceuticals
Dry mouth
Increased tremor in Parkinson’s patients
Low blood pressure
Lightheadedness
Drowsiness
It is a given that you should consult with your health care practitioner. Without minimizing the side effects, it may be worth placing them in perspective to gain perspective. For instance, although inhibits the activity of some liver enzymes called cytochrome P450, so can eating a portion of grapefruit have a similar effect on the aforementioned liver enzymes.  Also, although research suggests that CBD taken in high doses may worsen muscle movement in Parkinson’s disease sufferers, there are studies that suggest that CBD is safe and well-tolerated by people effected by this disease. Perhaps dosage is a factor. Perhaps dosage is also a factor in drowsiness. CBD is typically a wake inducing agent.
Typically this ancient plant provide benefits without hurting any of the organs such as the gut, liver or kidneys or invasive side effects of pharmaceutical medications such as Ibuprofen or pain medications.
A LeafScience.com article notes other benefits:
Anticonvulsant – may help with reducing seizures and other neurological disorders
Antipsychotic – reduces psychotic disorders
Antioxidant –reduces neurological/degenerative disorders
Antidepressant – lessons feelings of depression and anxiety
Most Effective, Fast, Absorbing Hemp Oil
Prime My Body * is the hemp oil that I trust. It is:
100 % plant based hemp extract
Non- psychoactive and safe for daily consumption
Nano-enhanced technology
Sustainable, naturally grown hemp oil
Used for a wide range of healthy benefits dating back more than 3,000 years
Faster, stronger and more effective
This Nano Enhanced Hemp Oil far outpaces tinctures
UP TO 10X’S MORE ABSORBING THAN OTHER HEMP OILS
Liposomal means that high quality oils are used to encase the delicate hemp oil extraction.
Liposomal delivery brings the power of intravenous therapy into convenient oral delivery. Typical absorption of Cannabidiol oil is poor, with only about 10% uptake in the GI tract. Liposomal encapsulation of compounds similar to Cannabidiol have been shown to increase absorbtion five-to ten- fold. Our pharmaceutical-grade LIPOSOMAL Cannabidiol outperforms other products thanks to smaller, more stable, single-layer spheres made from the highest-grade ingredients available.
The advanced technology behind this groundbreaking liquid delivery system makes for precise dosing and immediate effect. It’s up to 10x’s MORE ABSORBING than other oils!
Liposomal delivery methods encapsulate the incredibly tiny Nano size particles to increase absorption of this natural, premium compound making it significantly more bioavailable to the body.
Compared to Other CBD Oils on the Market
This liposomes bring the power of intravenous therapy into convenient oral delivery. Unlike other liposomes on the market that use low grades of phospholipids, which breakdown and do not deliver compounds effectively, this high-phosphatidylcholine phospholipid mixes are smaller, more stable, and tightly distributed, single-layer spheres. The vesicles are small enough to begin absorption as soon as they hit your mouth; it’s lightning fast!
This pharmaceutical-grade Nano-Enhanced Hemp Oil outperforms the leading pharma brand thanks to smaller, more stable, single-layer spheres made from the highest- grade ingredients available, which has shown to increase absorbtion by 5-10 fold.
In a test against cannabinoid uptake results, published by a leading pharma brand, our liposomal hemp oil was absorbed in the blood in amounts three times as great at half the dose.
Hope you found this information helpful.
Mini Disclaimer: This information is being provided to you for educational and informational purposes only as a self help tool. I do hope that this information will help you know what options you have so that you can make the most informed decisions and as a self-help tool for your own use. I am not acting in the capacity of a doctor, psychologist or other licensed or registered professional. Additionally you understand that I am not providing health care or medical services and will not diagnose, treat, prevent, heal or cure in any manner whatsoever, any disease, condition or other physical or mental ailment of the human body. 

 I am not a doctor. I am not providing medical advise. Any advice given should never be used as a substitute for the medical advice from your own doctor. Always consult your own health care practitioner or General Practitioner (GP) if you are concerned about your health. It is not intended as a substitute for advice from your physician or other healthcare professional. The information is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. This information is to be used at your own risk based on your own judgment. For my full Disclaimer, please go to the Disclaimer page on my website http://barefoodangel.com/disclaimer.
* Affiliate
References:
http://foodfacts.mercola.com/hemp.html#_edn3
http://www.medicaldaily.com/hemp-vs-marijuana-why-growing-hemp-should-not-be-restricted-pot-343834
http://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/primary-health-benefits-hemp
http://www.foxnews.com/health/2016/12/20/now-schedule-1-drug-cbd-hemp-oil.html
http://www.medicaldaily.com/hemp-vs-marijuana-why-growing-hemp-should-not-be-restricted-pot-343834
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21462790
Known and potential side effects of cannabidiol (CBD)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3736954/
https://www.treehugger.com/sustainable-agriculture/us-missing-out-on-agricultural-millions-because-the-dea-cant-distinguish-hemp-from-pot.html
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2017/02/19/medical-cannabis-underutilized-therapeutic-option.aspx
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21827451
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22129319
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/51841989_Safety_and_Side_Effects_of_Cannabidiol_a_Cannabis_sativa_Constituent
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4157067/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16698671
http://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343%2813%2900200-3/abstract
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22670794
https://www.aesnet.org/meetings_events/annual_meeting_abstracts/view/1868751
Cannabidiol, or CBD, Benefits for Pain, Mental Illness & Anxiety
5 Must-Know Facts About Cannabidiol (CBD)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3579246/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16728591/
https://www.ima.org.il/FilesUpload/IMAJ/0/228/114214.pdf
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3005548/
How Does Cannabis Kill Cancer Cells ?
http://www.nature.com/cddis/journal/v3/n6/full/cddis201271a.html
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barefoodangelblog · 7 years ago
Text
Is Hemp Oil Beneficial for You?
This controversial crop has been demonized and defended for at least 80 years in the US due to political factions, special interests, and downright suspicion.
Hemp has been called a plant of “major economic importance” as it grows like a weed, every bit of this ancient plant is useful and valuable, and not just for rope but for textiles, auto parts, cosmetics, dynamite, supplements, food, and medicine.
Valued since ancient times as a fiber source for textiles, the hemp industry eventually made it to the US, where it flourished in the mid-1800s, through World War I and again briefly during World War II, when the war cut off supplies of fiber.
CBD vs THC
Image from LeafScience
There is a difference between hemp and pot.
Researchers from the University of Minnesota’s (U of M) College of Biological Sciences and College of Food, Agricultural, and Natural Resource Sciences belong to one of the few groups of US scientists that have been granted federal clearance to study cannabis.
As noted by Medical Daily, after more than 12 years of research, the team found a single gene that is responsible for the genetic differences between hemp and marijuana.
“While hemp produces a non-euphoric cannabidiol (CBD) with approximately 0.3 to 1.5 percent tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) concentration, marijuana is packed with between five to 10 percent (or even higher) psychoactive THC concentration.”
The cannabis plant makes cannabinoids, also known as phytocannabinoids or plant cannabinoids. This encompasses both CBD (Cannabidiol) and THC (tetrahydrocannabinol).
THC is the psychoactive component of marijuana; it’s the molecule that makes you feel “stoned”. While cannabidiol (CBD) also has certain psychoactive properties, it does NOT produce a high. By legal definition, hemp cannot have more than 0.3 percent tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) in it. So to summarize: It also contains less than 0.3 percent THC, which means it cannot produce a high or get you stoned.
Studies have shown both compounds have important health benefits: THC has antispasmodic, analgesic, anti-tremor, anti-inflammatory, appetite stimulating and anti-emetic properties, and CBD has anti-inflammatory, anticonvulsant, antipsychotic, antioxidant, neuroprotective and immunomodulatory effects.
THC has limited clinical use due to its unwanted psychoactive side effects. This is the main reason why interest in CBD which is non-psychoactive phytocannabinoids has increased in recent years.
Where THC is known for its sleep-inducing effects, CBD appears to promote wakefulness instead.
How did Hemp Get Such a Bad Rap?
According to Dr. Mercola, American industrialists led by newspaper mogul William Randolph Hearst (who owned vast timberlands) and DuPont executives, who’d begun processing petroleum and wood for plastics, became disgruntled by the way hemp cut into their market shares.
A 1994 Vegetarian Times article describes the group’s devastatingly successful tactics for twisting the public’s perception of hemp:
“The plan? Whip the public into a frenzy over ill effects of marijuana, the psychoactive leaves and flowers of the hemp plant; the reputation of the fibers and seeds used by industry would be posing little threat to society emerged as the ‘assassin of youth.’ The strategy worked. In 1937, with virtually no warning, Congress announced a prohibitive tax on hemp, effectively ending the production and sale of the plant in the United States.
“The effects of the ban on growing hemp were widespread. Polluting, nonrenewable petroleum products replaced hemp lubricants and paints and oil… From that point on, hemp was viewed solely as an illegal drug; its role in constructing our national economy was forgotten.”
The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) is still trying to suppress it as best they can. In December 2016, the DEA announced cannabidiol (CBD) is being reclassified as a Schedule 1 controlled substance, putting it on par with LSD and heroin, even though CBD has no psychoactive component. It cannot render you “high”. TreeHugger’s article nailed it: “US Missing Out On Agricultural Millions Because The DEA Can’t Distinguish Hemp From Pot”.
In the US, the cultivation of hemp has been banned since the 1970s when the federal Controlled Substances Act took effect. The law doesn’t distinguish between marijuana, the drug, and hemp, the plant, despite major scientific differences.
The US is the world’s largest consumer of hemp products, yet ironically it is the only industrialized country that also outlaws its production. US hemp products – a more than $600-million market in the US – are imported.
Cannabinoid Receptors Exist Throughout Our Bodies
The human endocannabinoid system — endo meaning “within” — strongly suggests the human organism is actually designed to make good use of the cannabis plant. 
Cannabinoid (CBD) receptors are found throughout the body, primarily in the immune system and the structures associated with healthy immune functioning, among many other functions and body systems. The endocannabinoid system plays a key regulatory role in the human body. For example, there are endocannabinoid receptors in the nervous system, where cannabinoids are made locally on demand. What this means is that in your nervous system, you have sending nerve cells and receiving nerve cells, and the endocannabinoid system works with those cells to maintain balance.
The primary role of the endocannabinoid system is to bring homeostasis to tissues and biological systems. Thus, the endocannabinoid system plays a key regulatory role in the human body.
The marijuana plant triggers something that’s been inside us since the dawn of mankind.
Benefits of Hemp Oil
  According to many doctors including Dr. Margaret Gedde, a Stanford-trained pathologist and award-winning researcher, Cannabinoids may:
Reduce pain and inflammation
Reduce nerve stimulation causing seizures
Reduce muscle spasm and pain by relaxing the muscles
Helps relax and improve sleep
Helps improve gut function
Improve digestive function from disorders such as colitis and inflammatory bowel disease
Relieves nausea and vomiting associated with chemotherapy
Help with glaucoma by reducing the intraocular pressure
Helps normalize blood pressure
Reduces anxiety
Helps with Post-traumatic stress
Helps support immune system to fight cancer and tumor
Helps support blood sugar regulation
Promotes cardiovascular health
Several scientific reports demonstrate CBD’s  benefits. Studies published in show that cannabinoids possess anti-proliferative and pro-apoptotic effects and they are known to interfere with tumour neovascularization, cancer cell migration, adhesion, invasion and metastasization.
A 2006 study published in the Journal of Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics found for the first time that CBD potently and selectively inhibited the growth of different breast tumor cell lines and exhibited significantly less potency in non-cancer cells.
Not only does the research show that CBD benefits including being effective in fighting breast cancer cells, data also suggests that it can be used to inhibit the invasion of lung and colon cancer, plus it possesses anti-tumor properties in gliomas and has been used to treat leukemia.
Safety and side effects study in NCBI suggests that controlled cannabidiol administration is safe and non-toxic in humans and animals. It also does not induce changes in food intake; nor does it affect physiological parameters like heart rate, body temperature or blood pressure. Also, according to this review paper, “high doses up to 1,500 mg/day of CBD are reportedly well tolerated in humans.”
There are very few potential side effects of CBD, these are mostly minor but you should be informed before taking CBD.
CBD can interact with a series of pharmaceuticals
Dry mouth
Increased tremor in Parkinson’s patients
Low blood pressure
Lightheadedness
Drowsiness
It is a given that you should consult with your health care practitioner. Without minimizing the side effects, it may be worth placing them in perspective to gain perspective. For instance, although inhibits the activity of some liver enzymes called cytochrome P450, so can eating a portion of grapefruit have a similar effect on the aforementioned liver enzymes.  Also, although research suggests that CBD taken in high doses may worsen muscle movement in Parkinson’s disease sufferers, there are studies that suggest that CBD is safe and well-tolerated by people effected by this disease. Perhaps dosage is a factor. Perhaps dosage is also a factor in drowsiness. CBD is typically a wake inducing agent.
Typically this ancient plant provide benefits without hurting any of the organs such as the gut, liver or kidneys or invasive side effects of pharmaceutical medications such as Ibuprofen or pain medications.
A LeafScience.com article notes other benefits:
Anticonvulsant – may help with reducing seizures and other neurological disorders
Antipsychotic – reduces psychotic disorders
Antioxidant –reduces neurological/degenerative disorders
Antidepressant – lessons feelings of depression and anxiety
Most Effective, Fast, Absorbing Hemp Oil
Prime My Body * is the hemp oil that I trust. It is:
100 % plant based hemp extract
Non- psychoactive and safe for daily consumption
Nano-enhanced technology
Sustainable, naturally grown hemp oil
Used for a wide range of healthy benefits dating back more than 3,000 years
Faster, stronger and more effective
This Nano Enhanced Hemp Oil far outpaces tinctures
UP TO 10X’S MORE ABSORBING THAN OTHER HEMP OILS
Liposomal means that high quality oils are used to encase the delicate hemp oil extraction.
Liposomal delivery brings the power of intravenous therapy into convenient oral delivery. Typical absorption of Cannabidiol oil is poor, with only about 10% uptake in the GI tract. Liposomal encapsulation of compounds similar to Cannabidiol have been shown to increase absorbtion five-to ten- fold. Our pharmaceutical-grade LIPOSOMAL Cannabidiol outperforms other products thanks to smaller, more stable, single-layer spheres made from the highest-grade ingredients available.
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Liposomal delivery methods encapsulate the incredibly tiny Nano size particles to increase absorption of this natural, premium compound making it significantly more bioavailable to the body.
Compared to Other CBD Oils on the Market
This liposomes bring the power of intravenous therapy into convenient oral delivery. Unlike other liposomes on the market that use low grades of phospholipids, which breakdown and do not deliver compounds effectively, this high-phosphatidylcholine phospholipid mixes are smaller, more stable, and tightly distributed, single-layer spheres. The vesicles are small enough to begin absorption as soon as they hit your mouth; it’s lightning fast!
This pharmaceutical-grade Nano-Enhanced Hemp Oil outperforms the leading pharma brand thanks to smaller, more stable, single-layer spheres made from the highest- grade ingredients available, which has shown to increase absorbtion by 5-10 fold.
In a test against cannabinoid uptake results, published by a leading pharma brand, our liposomal hemp oil was absorbed in the blood in amounts three times as great at half the dose.
Hope you found this information helpful.
Mini Disclaimer: This information is being provided to you for educational and informational purposes only as a self help tool. I do hope that this information will help you know what options you have so that you can make the most informed decisions and as a self-help tool for your own use. I am not acting in the capacity of a doctor, psychologist or other licensed or registered professional. Additionally you understand that I am not providing health care or medical services and will not diagnose, treat, prevent, heal or cure in any manner whatsoever, any disease, condition or other physical or mental ailment of the human body. 

 I am not a doctor. I am not providing medical advise. Any advice given should never be used as a substitute for the medical advice from your own doctor. Always consult your own health care practitioner or General Practitioner (GP) if you are concerned about your health. It is not intended as a substitute for advice from your physician or other healthcare professional. The information is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. This information is to be used at your own risk based on your own judgment. For my full Disclaimer, please go to the Disclaimer page on my website http://barefoodangel.com/disclaimer.
* Affiliate
References:
http://foodfacts.mercola.com/hemp.html#_edn3
http://www.medicaldaily.com/hemp-vs-marijuana-why-growing-hemp-should-not-be-restricted-pot-343834
http://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/primary-health-benefits-hemp
http://www.foxnews.com/health/2016/12/20/now-schedule-1-drug-cbd-hemp-oil.html
http://www.medicaldaily.com/hemp-vs-marijuana-why-growing-hemp-should-not-be-restricted-pot-343834
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21462790
Known and potential side effects of cannabidiol (CBD)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3736954/
https://www.treehugger.com/sustainable-agriculture/us-missing-out-on-agricultural-millions-because-the-dea-cant-distinguish-hemp-from-pot.html
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2017/02/19/medical-cannabis-underutilized-therapeutic-option.aspx
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21827451
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22129319
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/51841989_Safety_and_Side_Effects_of_Cannabidiol_a_Cannabis_sativa_Constituent
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4157067/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16698671
http://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343%2813%2900200-3/abstract
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22670794
https://www.aesnet.org/meetings_events/annual_meeting_abstracts/view/1868751
Cannabidiol, or CBD, Benefits for Pain, Mental Illness & Anxiety
5 Must-Know Facts About Cannabidiol (CBD)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3579246/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16728591/
https://www.ima.org.il/FilesUpload/IMAJ/0/228/114214.pdf
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3005548/
How Does Cannabis Kill Cancer Cells ?
http://www.nature.com/cddis/journal/v3/n6/full/cddis201271a.html
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The post Is Hemp Oil Beneficial for You? appeared first on Barefood Angel.
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ormlacom · 8 years ago
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8 Predictions for SEO in 2017
Something every woman should know - WHY MEN LIE!
Posted by randfish
It's that time again, friends... That time where I grade my 2016 predictions to see whether I've got the clout and foresight to get another shot in 2017. This year is gonna be really close, as I was more aggressive last year than in prior ones, so let's see where we end up, and what I've got to say for the next 12 months.
As always, my predictions will be graded on the following scale:
Nailed It (+2) – When a prediction is right on the money and the primary criteria are fulfilled
Partially Accurate (+1) – Predictions that are in the area, but are somewhat different than reality
Not Completely Wrong (-1) – Those that landed near the truth, but couldn't be called "correct" in any real sense
Way Off (-2) – Guesses which didn't come close
If I'm at breakeven or above, you can have more trust for what I'll posit for the year ahead. If not... Doom! Well, OK, maybe not doom. But at least shame and embarrassment and what I hope are lots of hilarious tweets at my expense.
Grading Rand's 2016 Predictions
#1: Data will reveal Google organic results to have <70% CTR
+2 – I won big with this one, though it was one of my more conservative projects. According to our clickstream data gathered in the summer, approximately 40% of Google searches do not garner any clicks at all. Granted, some of those are probably Google autocompleting a query before the searcher has finished typing, but given the threshold of 70%, I've got plenty of room to spare.
#2: Mobile will barely cut in to desktop's usage and its growth rate in developed countries will slow
+1 – I'm giving myself a conservative point here because while Google's mobile growth has appeared to have slightly more of a plateauing impact (data via SimilarWeb Pro, which shows Google on desktop at ~51% in 2015, down to ~49% in 2016, with mobile the reverse) on desktop search volume in the US, I have been unable to find data on the growth of mobile/desktop in developing countries. If someone has a source to help me better refine this prediction, please leave it in the comments.
BTW — I'll grant that SimilarWeb's data on Google usage probably isn't perfect, but they have enough of a sample set that the shift in mix from desktop to mobile is likely statistically significant and thus, the trend's probably accurate.
#3: Twitter will figure out how to grow again
-1 – While Twitter did indeed grow monthly active users in 2016 (from 305mm to 317mm) compared to 2015 (when they only grew from 302–305mm), that was a very low bar. Growth is growth, but I don't think Twitter has truly "figured out" how to grow yet. Maybe they'll take a page from Hunter Walk or Anil Dash.
#4: Social content engines will become a force
-1 – This is a tough one... SimilarWeb shows Pocket down in the overall app rankings but up as a referring source, and up on the mobile & desktop web with more engaged users on the platform. Meanwhile, Nuzzel has grown ~30% on the web (again, according to SimilarWeb). Instapaper and Feedly seem to be doing well, but not exceptionally so. I think these apps are a force in the influencer world, but their success breaking into the mainstream seems, as yet, limited.
#5: Yext will IPO, prompting even more interest in the world of local listings
-2 – I'm shocked I missed this one. I think Yext is probably still a likely IPO candidate in the next 12 months, but credit to them for staying private longer and building up for what I'm guessing will be a strong public offering.
#6: The death of normal distributions will hit both publishing and search results hard
+2 – Tragically, we did indeed see more consolidation, the loss of more news sources and networks, and the continued domination of Google's search results by the few over the many. I showed off our clickstream data on this in my MozCon intro:
#7: The rise of adblocking is going to trigger attempts at legislation and incite more sites to restrict adblocking users
-1 – One out of two isn't bad, but since my primary prediction was around legislation, I'll stay conservative and deduct a point. We did certainly see more sites, particularly ad-driven sites, shifting to subscriptions and getting much more aggressive in their treatment of adblocking users. Mashable wrote about how it appears, from many reports, that adblocking itself seems to have leveled off in 2016, which few would have predicted. Maybe the savvy users who wanted to avoid ads have all done their bit and most of the rest of the web's users don't mind ads all that much? Or maybe just not enough to do anything about it.
#8: DuckDuckGo will be the fastest-growing search engine of 2016
+2 – Barring perfect data for things like Amazon's Alexa/Echo (which is arguably a personal assistant, not a search engine) or for Google itself (which probably grew searches in the 10–15% range), it looks like this was spot on. Pretty impressive to see DuckDuckGo go from 8,606,321 searches per day on January 2nd, 2016 to 11,183,864 per day on January 2nd, 2017 — 30% year-over-year growth.
#9: Content marketing software for the non-enterprise will finally emerge
+1 – There's no clear, breakout market leader in content marketing software for SMBs (Canva might be on the brink). But, there are a lot of players and a few in strong positions. I'm not seeing any with tens of millions in pure SMB revenue, hence only one point, but this is a market space that even today is hotter than the SEO software space has ever been. There are at least 50 content marketing software companies with VC backing who have SMB offerings. In SEO, I don't think more than 5 companies have ever raised VC (versus private investment). And those 50 companies (plus the many private and unfunded ones) probably combine to serve a lot of customers, possibly more than the few SMB-focused SEO software companies ever have.
#10: The "big" trends for 2016: Wearables, VR, smart home, and Internet of Things will have almost no impact on the world of web marketing (yet)
-1 – I'm going to say that voice search applications that circumvent the web (and, thus, web marketing) are at least on the verge of having an impact on at least search, and possibly other channels soon too ("Alexa, read my Facebook feed to me so I don't have to see the ads.")
FINAL 2016 SCORE: +2
Whew! Just made it... Let's see what's on deck for the 12 months to come.
Rand's 8 Predictions for 2017
#1: Voice search will be more than 25% of all US Google searches within 12 months. Despite this, desktop volume will stay nearly flat and mobile (non-voice) will continue to grow.
I'm going out on a limb with this by predicting what most aren't — that voice search won't actually cannibalize desktop or typed mobile searches, but will instead just add on top of it. Today, between 20–25% of mobile queries are voice, but oddly, Google said in May 2016 the number was 20% whereas in September 2010, they'd said 25%. Either voice has been relatively flat, or the old number was incorrect.
KPCB's 2016 Trends report suggests the growth in voice search is higher, using implied Google Trends data (which, as those of us in SEO know, can be a dangerous, messy assumption). Clickstream data sampling and sources that track referrals (like SimilarWeb Pro) are likely better ways to measure the impact of cannibalization, and hopefully Google themselves (or third-party data sources with direct access) will report on the relative growth of voice to validate this.
In my opinion, voice search is the first true high-risk technology shift ever faced by the SEO world. If we see it cannibalize a substantive portion of search activity, we may find a pot that's been growing for 20 years is suddenly (possibly rapidly) shrinking. I'm still bullish on search growing for the next 2–3 years, but I'm watching the data carefully, as should we all.
#2: Google will remain the top referrer of website traffic by 5X+. Neither Facebook, nor any other source, will make a dent.
Here's SimilarWeb's breakdown for who sends traffic on the web:
I'd generally ignore "direct" as those include HTTPS->HTTP referrals that pass no referral string, every opening of every browser and browser tab, bookmarks, links from apps that don't carry referrals, etc. The data below is where I pay attention. There, Google is ~11X bigger than Facebook, which is ~1.5X YouTube.
My prediction is that Google continues to dominate, no matter the prognostications about Facebook or Snapchat or Amazon or anyone else making inroads to the overall traffic pie.
#3: The Marketing Technology space will not have much consolidation (fewer exits and acquisitions, by percentage, than 2015 or 2016), but there will be at least one major exit or IPO among the major SEO software providers.
Scott Brinker has been helpfully tracking the growth and changes to the marketing software landscape over the last decade, and there's been a metric ton of new entrants.
But, oddly enough, SEO has always remained a small player in the software world. The vast majority of the companies and tools in the list below are private, unfunded, and have annual revenues of <$1mm. A few larger players exist, but in every other marketing tech category, there's at least one player at 2–10X the size of our entire market combined.
Part of this is because very few entrepreneurs in the space have chosen to go the VC-backed, billions-or-bust route vs. pursue the relatively higher success and survival rates offered by small investors or bootstrapping. Part of it is because SEO as an industry is dependent on Google, which creates risk that many entrepreneurs and investors dislike. And part is because SEO has a bad reputation thanks to its shady past and a few spammy operators.
In 2017, I believe we'll see very little acquisition or IPO activity from martech players. But I think we will see one of the major SEO software players (most probably Yext, Searchmetrics, SEMRush, Brightedge, Conductor, STAT, Rio SEO, Sistrix, Yoast, or Moz itself) have a major exit. An IPO would make our field vastly more interesting to analysts and potentially investors and entrepreneurs, too. A large exit could start a wave of consolidation.
#4: Google will offer paid search ads in featured snippets, knowledge graph, and/or carousels.
In 2016, Google put shopping ads in image search, rolled out ads in local packs, and increased the number of top ads in AdWords to 4 (which can dominate many top-of-fold SERPs). Despite this, paid CTRs have been pretty flat.
Merkle/RKG data is awesomely transparent, but of course biased by the sites that use the agency and share their analytics/AdWords data. Directionally, it's usually solid, particularly on metrics like paid CTR, and I trust that it's rarely going to be way off. Their data also matches nicely to our own clickstream analyses, showing that 1.5%–2.5% of all search queries result in a click on a paid ad.
#5: Amazon search will have 4% or more of Google's web search volume by end of year.
You might have seen a report noting that Amazon is "beating" Google as the place consumers start their product searches. Unfortunately, that report used survey data, and we're all familiar with how poor web users are at estimating how they actually behave online.
Moz's clickstream data was more revealing here, showing that Amazon's probably ~2% the overall search volume of Google. You could certainly make the argument that perhaps only 4% of all Google searches are for products, and thus, Amazon is neck-and-neck. I suspect Google's still winning here, but my prediction is that Amazon will grow their search penetration and volume, in part thanks to Alexa/Echo, and in part because of their formidable Prime strategy, to be 4% or more of Google (doubling where they were this past summer).
#6: Twitter will remain independent, and remain the most valuable and popular network for publishers and influencers.
It's very in vogue to rag on Twitter — their share price has sunk. Their growth has been tepid. Trolls and abuse plague the platform and many of Twitter's leaders are culturally locked-in to a focus on "free speech" over improving the platform for abused and marginalized groups. Buzzfeed's report on these trends reveals a deep cultural rift that seems to be hurting the platform still.
Despite this, I'm bullish on Twitter remaining the most powerful way for publishers and influencers to connect, share, and converse. The platform's open systems (versus the closed ecosystems of Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, etc) and its huge media presence give it a hard-to-catch lead in this field. That, and no one else seems to be trying, possibly because Twitter hasn't shown the growth that closed networks like Facebook have.
My other prediction, that Twitter remains independent, is a thorny and unpopular one. Supposedly, Twitter's put itself up for sale, but the bidders have been less than excited (or perhaps the premium the company is seeking is simply too high). In 2017, I think we'll continue to see an independent Twitter, growing revenue and users slower than Wall Street wants, but maintaining their cultural and influencer status.
#7: The top 10 mobile apps will remain nearly static for the year ahead, with, at most, one new entrant and 4 or fewer position changes.
Mobile apps have been a bugbear for many big brands, marketers, and app creators. While apps have dominated time spent on mobile, apart from games, the money to be made and that precious time spent is almost all flowing to the top few apps.
Nielsen reported that Amazon broke into the top 10 this year, but apart from that, it's been fairly quiet in the rankings shakeups at the head of the app curve. What's scarier is that Google and Facebook own a full 8 of the top 10 apps, and those apps are responsible for more than 90% of all app activity.
This is a winner-take-all market, and one with a surprisingly short tail to its demand curve. I'm predicting almost no change in 2017. Apps will be dominated by these few. For SEOs, apps continue to provide some extra ranking opportunities, mostly in mobile on Android (and a little less on iOS), but the "App Takeover" of SERPs and mobile search never appeared. Hopefully, you didn't over-invest in the trend!
#8: 2017 will be the year Google admits publicly they use engagement data as an input to their ranking systems, not just for training/learning
2016 saw Google backtracking a bit on the issue of search/visit/click/pogostick data, most saliently via Paul Haahr's excellent slide deck, How Google Works: An Ranking Engineer's Perspective.
Since then, there have been fewer dismissals of this fact than in the past, but some Googlers have maintained in public talks and on Twitter that query and click data cannot influence rankings (which we've proven over and over is highly improbable). I'm proud of Google for their work over the last few years to be generally less misleading and more open on issues of how their search engine works (subfolders vs subdomains being one of the continuing outliers where statements don't match reality). I'm hopeful this extends into the realm of engagement data because I believe it would have a real and positive impact on how many brands, publishers, and content creators of all kinds on the web think about what they create. The story in many circles is still "links + keywords," and the nuance that low-engagement content (and sites) will, over time, underperform even if they do these right, would be a great nudge in a positive direction.
Now it's your turn — where do you think I'm right? Wrong? Crazy? And what predictions are you making for SEO and search marketing in 2017?
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samuelfields · 6 years ago
Text
Latest 401(k) Balance By Age Versus Recommended Amount For A Comfortable Retirement
According to Fidelity, as of September 2018, the average 401(k) account balance is $106,500. Fidelity holds 16.2 million 401(k) accounts, including my Solo 401(k). Fidelity is consistently ranked as one of the largest 401(k) providers in the country.
The median 401(k) account balance, on the other hand, is a paltry $24,800. It’s clear that despite an enormous bull run since the 2009 lows, not enough Americans are saving for retirement or don’t have pre-tax retirement plans like a 401(k). I’m sure it’s a combination of both.
What I’d like to do is compare the latest average 401(k) balance by age with my recommended average 401(k) balance by age for financial independence seekers. Let’s see how big the differences are so we can explain how important it is for everybody to focus on their finances.
The 401(k) account is one leg of the new three-legged stool for retirement. The other two legs are post-tax savings accounts and personal hustle. It’s important to never depend on the government or anyone for your financial future.
Latest Average 401(k) Balance By Age
Below are the latest average and median 401(k) balances by age range according to Fidelity as of September 2018.
Ages 20-29: Average balance: $11,600, Median balance: $4,000.
After spending so much time in school, the last thing many young folks think about is saving for retirement. Further, because they’re just starting to make money, their marginal tax rate is likely to be the lowest of their entire career. As a result, their desire to contribute to a 401(k) isn’t very high.
That said, it’s important to get into the discipline of saving aggressively and saving often. If you are able to have or develop good financial habits in your 20s, these habits will continue for the rest of your life and make you wealthier.
Related: Achieving Financial Independence On A Modest Income: $40,000 In Manhattan
Ages 30-39: Average balance: $43,600. Median balance: $16,500.
Your 30s is a time for great career growth after spending your 20s learning. Not only should you be earning more, but you should also finally be able to regularly max out your 401(k).
Besides career and income growth, you are likely considering where to establish roots. Buying a primary residence and settling down with a life partner are two items high in consideration.
Ages 40-49: Average balance: $106,200, Median balance: $36,900.
You should be entering your peak earnings years in your 40s. Maxing out your 401(k) should come naturally, but for some reason, life somehow always gets in the way.
Maybe your housing costs are dragging you down. Maybe you went through a costly divorce. Or maybe the cost of raising children is more expensive than you realized.
Ages 50-59: Average balance: $179,100. Median balance: $62,700.
You finally see the retirement finish line. Participants age 50 and older can contribute an extra $6,000 a year in 2019. This catchup contribution is a 31.5% annual boost, which should be put to good use.
Here’s a chart that shows the historical 401(k) contribution limits. As you can see, the employer can contribute a heck of a lot more than you can if they are so generous.
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Ages 60-69: Average balance: $198,600. Median balance: $63,000.
You’re finally able to withdraw from your 401(k) without a 10% penalty. If you live frugally on only $30,000 a year, you can withdraw from an average balance of $198,600 for 6.5 years before you completely run out of money.
If you so happen to have only the median 401(k) balance of $63,000 at the age of 60, you will likely have to continue working for many more years, if not forever.
Ages 70+: Average: $186,800, Median: $52,400.
Given the median life expectancy is around 78 for men and 80 for women, we’ve finally come to an age group where the average 401(k) balance makes more sense.
Folks in their 70s are receiving Social Security and many of them have a pension as well from the good old days. If all debt is paid off, having much more than $200,000 at this age probably isn’t necessary.
The Recommended Average 401(k) Balance By Age
It should be clear by now that the average 401(k) balance for each age group below 70 is too low to afford a comfortable lifestyle in retirement. I can understand the low balance in one’s 20s, but by one’s 30s, everybody should be able to comfortably max out their 401(k) each year.
After a 16-day government shutdown in 2013, 64 percent of federal workers said they had less than two weeks’ worth of savings set aside. With the government shutdown in 2019, one career survey highlighted that almost 80 percent of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. That’s nuts!
Let’s now compare the latest average 401(k) balance by age in America with the recommended 401(k) balance for those who wish to enjoy a comfortable retirement.
The assumptions for the below chart are as follows:
* The Guide For Older Savers column accounts for lower maximum contribution amounts available to savers above 45. The column can also be used for more conservative returns.
* The Guide For Middle Age Savers column accounts for lower maximum contribution amounts available to savers below 45. The column can also be used for moderate returns.
* The Guide For Younger Age Savers column accounts for savers who are under the age of 25. They have higher maximum contribution amounts. After the first year, one maximizes their contribution every year to their 401(k) plan without failure.
* Average starting working age is 22. But you can follow the number of years working as a different guideline if you graduate later or earlier.
* $18,000 is used as the conservative base case maximum contribution amount for one’s entire working life. For 2019, the maximum contribution has increased to $19,000.
* The rate of return assumptions are between 0% – 10%. The asset allocation is based off a traditional asset allocation based on age.
* Company match assumption is between 0% – 100% of employee contribution. $56,000 a year is the total amount that can be contributed to a 401k by employee and employer for 2019 ($19,000 employee, $37,000 employer).
* The three recommended columns should successfully encapsulate about 80% of all 401K contributors who max out their contributions each year. There will be those with less, and those which much greater balances thanks to higher returns.
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As you can see from the chart, the average American 401(k) balance starts off light compared to the recommended balance, with the gap really widening over time due to the power of compounding.
For a closer apples-to-apples comparison, you can compare the Average American Balance column to the Middle Age Savers column. In this comparison, the financially savvy investor will have greater than 10X more in his or her 401(k) compared to the average American at 60.
Please recognize the importance of consistent savings and compounding returns. Over a period of several decades, even a 1% difference in returns or savings rate makes a big difference.
My default assumption is that everybody should have at least $1,000,000 in their 401(k) or total pre-tax retirement accounts by the time they turn 60. The range is between $1,000,000 – $5,000,000.
A $1,000,000 gross 401(k) account ends up being roughly $800,000 after-tax. Multiply $800,000 by 3% – 5% and you get between a $24,000 – $40,000 a year safe withdrawal rate to spend until death.
Depending on where you live and how luxurious you want your retirement to be, $24,000 – $40,000 a year may not be enough. If you plan to retire in a high cost of living area like San Francisco, having 5X that amount for spending might be more appropriate.
The good thing about the 401(k) is that it will get help from the after-tax investments you’ve been accumulating all your life as well. Contributing the maximum to your 401(k) should be considered the minimum for all financial freedom seekers.
Once you add on your own ingenuity of bringing in extra income during retirement if so desired, you should be able to live as close to your ideal retirement life as possible.
Related:
How To Analyze Your 401(k) For Excessive Fees
Ranking The Best Passive Income Streams
Readers, how do you stack up to the average 401(k) by age for Americans? How much are you shooting to have in your 401(k) by the time you can withdraw without penalty?
The post Latest 401(k) Balance By Age Versus Recommended Amount For A Comfortable Retirement appeared first on Financial Samurai.
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ronaldmrashid · 6 years ago
Text
Latest 401(k) Balance By Age Versus Recommended Amount For A Comfortable Retirement
According to Fidelity, as of September 2018, the average 401(k) account balance is $106,500. Fidelity holds 16.2 million 401(k) accounts, including my Solo 401(k). Fidelity is consistently ranked as one of the largest 401(k) providers in the country.
The median 401(k) account balance, on the other hand, is a paltry $24,800. It’s clear that despite an enormous bull run since the 2009 lows, not enough Americans are saving for retirement or don’t have pre-tax retirement plans like a 401(k). I’m sure it’s a combination of both.
What I’d like to do is compare the latest average 401(k) balance by age with my recommended average 401(k) balance by age for financial independence seekers. Let’s see how big the differences are so we can explain how important it is for everybody to focus on their finances.
The 401(k) account is one leg of the new three-legged stool for retirement. The other two legs are post-tax savings accounts and personal hustle. It’s important to never depend on the government or anyone for your financial future.
Latest Average 401(k) Balance By Age
Below are the latest average and median 401(k) balances by age range according to Fidelity as of September 2018.
Ages 20-29: Average balance: $11,600, Median balance: $4,000.
After spending so much time in school, the last thing many young folks think about is saving for retirement. Further, because they’re just starting to make money, their marginal tax rate is likely to be the lowest of their entire career. As a result, their desire to contribute to a 401(k) isn’t very high.
That said, it’s important to get into the discipline of saving aggressively and saving often. If you are able to have or develop good financial habits in your 20s, these habits will continue for the rest of your life and make you wealthier.
Related: Achieving Financial Independence On A Modest Income: $40,000 In Manhattan
Ages 30-39: Average balance: $43,600. Median balance: $16,500.
Your 30s is a time for great career growth after spending your 20s learning. Not only should you be earning more, but you should also finally be able to regularly max out your 401(k).
Besides career and income growth, you are likely considering where to establish roots. Buying a primary residence and settling down with a life partner are two items high in consideration.
Ages 40-49: Average balance: $106,200, Median balance: $36,900.
You should be entering your peak earnings years in your 40s. Maxing out your 401(k) should come naturally, but for some reason, life somehow always gets in the way.
Maybe your housing costs are dragging you down. Maybe you went through a costly divorce. Or maybe the cost of raising children is more expensive than you realized.
Ages 50-59: Average balance: $179,100. Median balance: $62,700.
You finally see the retirement finish line. Participants age 50 and older can contribute an extra $6,000 a year in 2019. This catchup contribution is a 31.5% annual boost, which should be put to good use.
Here’s a chart that shows the historical 401(k) contribution limits. As you can see, the employer can contribute a heck of a lot more than you can if they are so generous.
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Ages 60-69: Average balance: $198,600. Median balance: $63,000.
You’re finally able to withdraw from your 401(k) without a 10% penalty. If you live frugally on only $30,000 a year, you can withdraw from an average balance of $198,600 for 6.5 years before you completely run out of money.
If you so happen to have only the median 401(k) balance of $63,000 at the age of 60, you will likely have to continue working for many more years, if not forever.
Ages 70+: Average: $186,800, Median: $52,400.
Given the median life expectancy is around 78 for men and 80 for women, we’ve finally come to an age group where the average 401(k) balance makes more sense.
Folks in their 70s are receiving Social Security and many of them have a pension as well from the good old days. If all debt is paid off, having much more than $200,000 at this age probably isn’t necessary.
The Recommended Average 401(k) Balance By Age
It should be clear by now that the average 401(k) balance for each age group below 70 is too low to afford a comfortable lifestyle in retirement. I can understand the low balance in one’s 20s, but by one’s 30s, everybody should be able to comfortably max out their 401(k) each year.
After a 16-day government shutdown in 2013, 64 percent of federal workers said they had less than two weeks’ worth of savings set aside. With the government shutdown in 2019, one career survey highlighted that almost 80 percent of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. That’s nuts!
Let’s now compare the latest average 401(k) balance by age in America with the recommended 401(k) balance for those who wish to enjoy a comfortable retirement.
The assumptions for the below chart are as follows:
* The Guide For Older Savers column accounts for lower maximum contribution amounts available to savers above 45. The column can also be used for more conservative returns.
* The Guide For Middle Age Savers column accounts for lower maximum contribution amounts available to savers below 45. The column can also be used for moderate returns.
* The Guide For Younger Age Savers column accounts for savers who are under the age of 25. They have higher maximum contribution amounts. After the first year, one maximizes their contribution every year to their 401(k) plan without failure.
* Average starting working age is 22. But you can follow the number of years working as a different guideline if you graduate later or earlier.
* $18,000 is used as the conservative base case maximum contribution amount for one’s entire working life. For 2019, the maximum contribution has increased to $19,000.
* The rate of return assumptions are between 0% – 10%. The asset allocation is based off a traditional asset allocation based on age.
* Company match assumption is between 0% – 100% of employee contribution. $56,000 a year is the total amount that can be contributed to a 401k by employee and employer for 2019 ($19,000 employee, $37,000 employer).
* The three recommended columns should successfully encapsulate about 80% of all 401K contributors who max out their contributions each year. There will be those with less, and those which much greater balances thanks to higher returns.
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As you can see from the chart, the average American 401(k) balance starts off light compared to the recommended balance, with the gap really widening over time due to the power of compounding.
For a closer apples-to-apples comparison, you can compare the Average American Balance column to the Middle Age Savers column. In this comparison, the financially savvy investor will have greater than 10X more in his or her 401(k) compared to the average American at 60.
Please recognize the importance of consistent savings and compounding returns. Over a period of several decades, even a 1% difference in returns or savings rate makes a big difference.
My default assumption is that everybody should have at least $1,000,000 in their 401(k) or total pre-tax retirement accounts by the time they turn 60. The range is between $1,000,000 – $5,000,000.
A $1,000,000 gross 401(k) account ends up being roughly $800,000 after-tax. Multiply $800,000 by 3% – 5% and you get between a $24,000 – $40,000 a year safe withdrawal rate to spend until death.
Depending on where you live and how luxurious you want your retirement to be, $24,000 – $40,000 a year may not be enough. If you plan to retire in a high cost of living area like San Francisco, having 5X that amount for spending might be more appropriate.
The good thing about the 401(k) is that it will get help from the after-tax investments you’ve been accumulating all your life as well. Contributing the maximum to your 401(k) should be considered the minimum for all financial freedom seekers.
Once you add on your own ingenuity of bringing in extra income during retirement if so desired, you should be able to live as close to your ideal retirement life as possible.
Related:
How To Analyze Your 401(k) For Excessive Fees
Ranking The Best Passive Income Streams
Readers, how do you stack up to the average 401(k) by age for Americans? How much are you shooting to have in your 401(k) by the time you can withdraw without penalty?
The post Latest 401(k) Balance By Age Versus Recommended Amount For A Comfortable Retirement appeared first on Financial Samurai.
from https://www.financialsamurai.com/the-latest-401k-balance-by-age-versus-the-recommended-amount-for-a-comfortable-retirement/
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lawrenceseitz22 · 8 years ago
Text
8 Predictions for SEO in 2017
Posted by randfish
It's that time again, friends... That time where I grade my 2016 predictions to see whether I've got the clout and foresight to get another shot in 2017. This year is gonna be really close, as I was more aggressive last year than in prior ones, so let's see where we end up, and what I've got to say for te next 12 months.
As always, my predictions will be graded on the following scale:
Nailed It (+2) – When a prediction is right on the money and the primary criteria are fulfilled
Partially Accurate (+1) – Predictions that are in the area, but are somewhat different than reality
Not Completely Wrong (-1) – Those that landed near the truth, but couldn't be called "correct" in any real sense
Way Off (-2) – Guesses which didn't come close
If I'm at breakeven or above, you can have more trust for what I'll posit for the year ahead. If not... Doom! Well, OK, maybe not doom. But at least shame and embarrassment and what I hope are lots of hilarious tweets at my expense.
Grading Rand's 2016 Predictions
#1: Data will reveal Google organic results to have <70% CTR
+2 – I won big with this one, though it was one of my more conservative projects. According to our clickstream data gathered in the summer, approximately 40% of Google searches do not garner any clicks at all. Granted, some of those are probably Google autocompleting a query before the searcher has finished typing, but given the threshold of 70%, I've got plenty of room to spare.
#2: Mobile will barely cut in to desktop's usage and its growth rate in developed countries will slow
+1 – I'm giving myself a conservative point here because while Google's mobile growth has appeared to have slightly more of a plateauing impact (data via SimilarWeb Pro, which shows Google on desktop at ~51% in 2015, down to ~49% in 2016, with mobile the reverse) on desktop search volume in the US, I have been unable to find data on the growth of mobile/desktop in developing countries. If someone has a source to help me better refine this prediction, please leave it in the comments.
BTW — I'll grant that SimilarWeb's data on Google usage probably isn't perfect, but they have enough of a sample set that the shift in mix from desktop to mobile is likely statistically significant and thus, the trend's probably accurate.
#3: Twitter will figure out how to grow again
-1 – While Twitter did indeed grow monthly active users in 2016 (from 305mm to 317mm) compared to 2015 (when they only grew from 302–305mm), that was a very low bar. Growth is growth, but I don't think Twitter has truly "figured out" how to grow yet. Maybe they'll take a page from Hunter Walk or Anil Dash.
#4: Social content engines will become a force
-1 – This is a tough one... SimilarWeb shows Pocket down in the overall app rankings but up as a referring source, and up on the mobile & desktop web with more engaged users on the platform. Meanwhile, Nuzzel has grown ~30% on the web (again, according to SimilarWeb). Instapaper and Feedly seem to be doing well, but not exceptionally so. I think these apps are a force in the influencer world, but their success breaking into the mainstream seems, as yet, limited.
#5: Yext will IPO, prompting even more interest in the world of local listings
-2 – I'm shocked I missed this one. I think Yext is probably still a likely IPO candidate in the next 12 months, but credit to them for staying private longer and building up for what I'm guessing will be a strong public offering.
#6: The death of normal distributions will hit both publishing and search results hard
+2 – Tragically, we did indeed see more consolidation, the loss of more news sources and networks, and the continued domination of Google's search results by the few over the many. I showed off our clickstream data on this in my MozCon intro:
#7: The rise of adblocking is going to trigger attempts at legislation and incite more sites to restrict adblocking users
-1 – One out of two isn't bad, but since my primary prediction was around legislation, I'll stay conservative and deduct a point. We did certainly see more sites, particularly ad-driven sites, shifting to subscriptions and getting much more aggressive in their treatment of adblocking users. Mashable wrote about how it appears, from many reports, that adblocking itself seems to have leveled off in 2016, which few would have predicted. Maybe the savvy users who wanted to avoid ads have all done their bit and most of the rest of the web's users don't mind ads all that much? Or maybe just not enough to do anything about it.
#8: DuckDuckGo will be the fastest-growing search engine of 2016
+2 – Barring perfect data for things like Amazon's Alexa/Echo (which is arguably a personal assistant, not a search engine) or for Google itself (which probably grew searches in the 10–15% range), it looks like this was spot on. Pretty impressive to see DuckDuckGo go from 8,606,321 searches per day on January 2nd, 2016 to 11,183,864 per day on January 2nd, 2017 — 30% year-over-year growth.
#9: Content marketing software for the non-enterprise will finally emerge
+1 – There's no clear, breakout market leader in content marketing software for SMBs (Canva might be on the brink). But, there are a lot of players and a few in strong positions. I'm not seeing any with tens of millions in pure SMB revenue, hence only one point, but this is a market space that even today is hotter than the SEO software space has ever been. There are at least 50 content marketing software companies with VC backing who have SMB offerings. In SEO, I don't think more than 5 companies have ever raised VC (versus private investment). And those 50 companies (plus the many private and unfunded ones) probably combine to serve a lot of customers, possibly more than the few SMB-focused SEO software companies ever have.
#10: The "big" trends for 2016: Wearables, VR, smart home, and Internet of Things will have almost no impact on the world of web marketing (yet)
-1 – I'm going to say that voice search applications that circumvent the web (and, thus, web marketing) are at least on the verge of having an impact on at least search, and possibly other channels soon too ("Alexa, read my Facebook feed to me so I don't have to see the ads.")
FINAL 2016 SCORE: +2
Whew! Just made it... Let's see what's on deck for the 12 months to come.
Rand's 8 Predictions for 2017
#1: Voice search will be more than 25% of all US Google searches within 12 months. Despite this, desktop volume will stay nearly flat and mobile (non-voice) will continue to grow.
I'm going out on a limb with this by predicting what most aren't — that voice search won't actually cannibalize desktop or typed mobile searches, but will instead just add on top of it. Today, between 20–25% of mobile queries are voice, but oddly, Google said in May 2016 the number was 20% whereas in September 2010, they'd said 25%. Either voice has been relatively flat, or the old number was incorrect.
KPCB's 2016 Trends report suggests the growth in voice search is higher, using implied Google Trends data (which, as those of us in SEO know, can be a dangerous, messy assumption). Clickstream data sampling and sources that track referrals (like SimilarWeb Pro) are likely better ways to measure the impact of cannibalization, and hopefully Google themselves (or third-party data sources with direct access) will report on the relative growth of voice to validate this.
In my opinion, voice search is the first true high-risk technology shift ever faced by the SEO world. If we see it cannibalize a substantive portion of search activity, we may find a pot that's been growing for 20 years is suddenly (possibly rapidly) shrinking. I'm still bullish on search growing for the next 2–3 years, but I'm watching the data carefully, as should we all.
#2: Google will remain the top referrer of website traffic by 5X+. Neither Facebook, nor any other source, will make a dent.
Here's SimilarWeb's breakdown for who sends traffic on the web:
I'd generally ignore "direct" as those include HTTPS->HTTP referrals that pass no referral string, every opening of every browser and browser tab, bookmarks, links from apps that don't carry referrals, etc. The data below is where I pay attention. There, Google is ~11X bigger than Facebook, which is ~1.5X YouTube.
My prediction is that Google continues to dominate, no matter the prognostications about Facebook or Snapchat or Amazon or anyone else making inroads to the overall traffic pie.
#3: The Marketing Technology space will not have much consolidation (fewer exits and acquisitions, by percentage, than 2015 or 2016), but there will be at least one major exit or IPO among the major SEO software providers.
Scott Brinker has been helpfully tracking the growth and changes to the marketing software landscape over the last decade, and there's been a metric ton of new entrants.
But, oddly enough, SEO has always remained a small player in the software world. The vast majority of the companies and tools in the list below are private, unfunded, and have annual revenues of <$1mm. A few larger players exist, but in every other marketing tech category, there's at least one player at 2–10X the size of our entire market combined.
Part of this is because very few entrepreneurs in the space have chosen to go the VC-backed, billions-or-bust route vs. pursue the relatively higher success and survival rates offered by small investors or bootstrapping. Part of it is because SEO as an industry is dependent on Google, which creates risk that many entrepreneurs and investors dislike. And part is because SEO has a bad reputation thanks to its shady past and a few spammy operators.
In 2017, I believe we'll see very little acquisition or IPO activity from martech players. But I think we will see one of the major SEO software players (most probably Yext, Searchmetrics, SEMRush, Brightedge, Conductor, STAT, Rio SEO, Sistrix, Yoast, or Moz itself) have a major exit. An IPO would make our field vastly more interesting to analysts and potentially investors and entrepreneurs, too. A large exit could start a wave of consolidation.
#4: Google will offer paid search ads in featured snippets, knowledge graph, and/or carousels.
In 2016, Google put shopping ads in image search, rolled out ads in local packs, and increased the number of top ads in AdWords to 4 (which can dominate many top-of-fold SERPs). Despite this, paid CTRs have been pretty flat.
Merkle/RKG data is awesomely transparent, but of course biased by the sites that use the agency and share their analytics/AdWords data. Directionally, it's usually solid, particularly on metrics like paid CTR, and I trust that it's rarely going to be way off. Their data also matches nicely to our own clickstream analyses, showing that 1.5%–2.5% of all search queries result in a click on a paid ad.
#5: Amazon search will have 4% or more of Google's web search volume by end of year.
You might have seen a report noting that Amazon is "beating" Google as the place consumers start their product searches. Unfortunately, that report used survey data, and we're all familiar with how poor web users are at estimating how they actually behave online.
Moz's clickstream data was more revealing here, showing that Amazon's probably ~2% the overall search volume of Google. You could certainly make the argument that perhaps only 4% of all Google searches are for products, and thus, Amazon is neck-and-neck. I suspect Google's still winning here, but my prediction is that Amazon will grow their search penetration and volume, in part thanks to Alexa/Echo, and in part because of their formidable Prime strategy, to be 4% or more of Google (doubling where they were this past summer).
#6: Twitter will remain independent, and remain the most valuable and popular network for publishers and influencers.
It's very in vogue to rag on Twitter — their share price has sunk. Their growth has been tepid. Trolls and abuse plague the platform and many of Twitter's leaders are culturally locked-in to a focus on "free speech" over improving the platform for abused and marginalized groups. Buzzfeed's report on these trends reveals a deep cultural rift that seems to be hurting the platform still.
Despite this, I'm bullish on Twitter remaining the most powerful way for publishers and influencers to connect, share, and converse. The platform's open systems (versus the closed ecosystems of Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, etc) and its huge media presence give it a hard-to-catch lead in this field. That, and no one else seems to be trying, possibly because Twitter hasn't shown the growth that closed networks like Facebook have.
My other prediction, that Twitter remains independent, is a thorny and unpopular one. Supposedly, Twitter's put itself up for sale, but the bidders have been less than excited (or perhaps the premium the company is seeking is simply too high). In 2017, I think we'll continue to see an independent Twitter, growing revenue and users slower than Wall Street wants, but maintaining their cultural and influencer status.
#7: The top 10 mobile apps will remain nearly static for the year ahead, with, at most, one new entrant and 4 or fewer position changes.
Mobile apps have been a bugbear for many big brands, marketers, and app creators. While apps have dominated time spent on mobile, apart from games, the money to be made and that precious time spent is almost all flowing to the top few apps.
Nielsen reported that Amazon broke into the top 10 this year, but apart from that, it's been fairly quiet in the rankings shakeups at the head of the app curve. What's scarier is that Google and Facebook own a full 8 of the top 10 apps, and those apps are responsible for more than 90% of all app activity.
This is a winner-take-all market, and one with a surprisingly short tail to its demand curve. I'm predicting almost no change in 2017. Apps will be dominated by these few. For SEOs, apps continue to provide some extra ranking opportunities, mostly in mobile on Android (and a little less on iOS), but the "App Takeover" of SERPs and mobile search never appeared. Hopefully, you didn't over-invest in the trend!
#8: 2017 will be the year Google admits publicly they use engagement data as an input to their ranking systems, not just for training/learning
2016 saw Google backtracking a bit on the issue of search/visit/click/pogostick data, most saliently via Paul Haahr's excellent slide deck, How Google Works: An Ranking Engineer's Perspective.
Since then, there have been fewer dismissals of this fact than in the past, but some Googlers have maintained in public talks and on Twitter that query and click data cannot influence rankings (which we've proven over and over is highly improbable).
I'm proud of Google for, over the last few years, being generally less misleading and more open on issues of how their search engine works. I'm hopeful this extends into the realm of engagement data because I believe it would have a real and positive impact on how many brands, publishers, and content creators of all kinds on the web think about what they create. The story in many circles is still "links + keywords," and the nuance that low-engagement content (and sites) will, over time, underperform even if they do these right, would be a great nudge in a positive direction.
Now it's your turn — where do you think I'm right? Wrong? Crazy? And what predictions are you making for SEO and search marketing in 2017?
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swunlimitednj · 8 years ago
Text
8 Predictions for SEO in 2017
Posted by randfish
It's that time again, friends... That time where I grade my 2016 predictions to see whether I've got the clout and foresight to get another shot in 2017. This year is gonna be really close, as I was more aggressive last year than in prior ones, so let's see where we end up, and what I've got to say for te next 12 months.
As always, my predictions will be graded on the following scale:
Nailed It (+2) – When a prediction is right on the money and the primary criteria are fulfilled
Partially Accurate (+1) – Predictions that are in the area, but are somewhat different than reality
Not Completely Wrong (-1) – Those that landed near the truth, but couldn't be called "correct" in any real sense
Way Off (-2) – Guesses which didn't come close
If I'm at breakeven or above, you can have more trust for what I'll posit for the year ahead. If not... Doom! Well, OK, maybe not doom. But at least shame and embarrassment and what I hope are lots of hilarious tweets at my expense.
Grading Rand's 2016 Predictions
#1: Data will reveal Google organic results to have <70% CTR
+2 – I won big with this one, though it was one of my more conservative projects. According to our clickstream data gathered in the summer, approximately 40% of Google searches do not garner any clicks at all. Granted, some of those are probably Google autocompleting a query before the searcher has finished typing, but given the threshold of 70%, I've got plenty of room to spare.
#2: Mobile will barely cut in to desktop's usage and its growth rate in developed countries will slow
+1 – I'm giving myself a conservative point here because while Google's mobile growth has appeared to have slightly more of a plateauing impact (data via SimilarWeb Pro, which shows Google on desktop at ~51% in 2015, down to ~49% in 2016, with mobile the reverse) on desktop search volume in the US, I have been unable to find data on the growth of mobile/desktop in developing countries. If someone has a source to help me better refine this prediction, please leave it in the comments.
BTW — I'll grant that SimilarWeb's data on Google usage probably isn't perfect, but they have enough of a sample set that the shift in mix from desktop to mobile is likely statistically significant and thus, the trend's probably accurate.
#3: Twitter will figure out how to grow again
-1 – While Twitter did indeed grow monthly active users in 2016 (from 305mm to 317mm) compared to 2015 (when they only grew from 302–305mm), that was a very low bar. Growth is growth, but I don't think Twitter has truly "figured out" how to grow yet. Maybe they'll take a page from Hunter Walk or Anil Dash.
#4: Social content engines will become a force
-1 – This is a tough one... SimilarWeb shows Pocket down in the overall app rankings but up as a referring source, and up on the mobile & desktop web with more engaged users on the platform. Meanwhile, Nuzzel has grown ~30% on the web (again, according to SimilarWeb). Instapaper and Feedly seem to be doing well, but not exceptionally so. I think these apps are a force in the influencer world, but their success breaking into the mainstream seems, as yet, limited.
#5: Yext will IPO, prompting even more interest in the world of local listings
-2 – I'm shocked I missed this one. I think Yext is probably still a likely IPO candidate in the next 12 months, but credit to them for staying private longer and building up for what I'm guessing will be a strong public offering.
#6: The death of normal distributions will hit both publishing and search results hard
+2 – Tragically, we did indeed see more consolidation, the loss of more news sources and networks, and the continued domination of Google's search results by the few over the many. I showed off our clickstream data on this in my MozCon intro:
#7: The rise of adblocking is going to trigger attempts at legislation and incite more sites to restrict adblocking users
-1 – One out of two isn't bad, but since my primary prediction was around legislation, I'll stay conservative and deduct a point. We did certainly see more sites, particularly ad-driven sites, shifting to subscriptions and getting much more aggressive in their treatment of adblocking users. Mashable wrote about how it appears, from many reports, that adblocking itself seems to have leveled off in 2016, which few would have predicted. Maybe the savvy users who wanted to avoid ads have all done their bit and most of the rest of the web's users don't mind ads all that much? Or maybe just not enough to do anything about it.
#8: DuckDuckGo will be the fastest-growing search engine of 2016
+2 – Barring perfect data for things like Amazon's Alexa/Echo (which is arguably a personal assistant, not a search engine) or for Google itself (which probably grew searches in the 10–15% range), it looks like this was spot on. Pretty impressive to see DuckDuckGo go from 8,606,321 searches per day on January 2nd, 2016 to 11,183,864 per day on January 2nd, 2017 — 30% year-over-year growth.
#9: Content marketing software for the non-enterprise will finally emerge
+1 – There's no clear, breakout market leader in content marketing software for SMBs (Canva might be on the brink). But, there are a lot of players and a few in strong positions. I'm not seeing any with tens of millions in pure SMB revenue, hence only one point, but this is a market space that even today is hotter than the SEO software space has ever been. There are at least 50 content marketing software companies with VC backing who have SMB offerings. In SEO, I don't think more than 5 companies have ever raised VC (versus private investment). And those 50 companies (plus the many private and unfunded ones) probably combine to serve a lot of customers, possibly more than the few SMB-focused SEO software companies ever have.
#10: The "big" trends for 2016: Wearables, VR, smart home, and Internet of Things will have almost no impact on the world of web marketing (yet)
-1 – I'm going to say that voice search applications that circumvent the web (and, thus, web marketing) are at least on the verge of having an impact on at least search, and possibly other channels soon too ("Alexa, read my Facebook feed to me so I don't have to see the ads.")
FINAL 2016 SCORE: +2
Whew! Just made it... Let's see what's on deck for the 12 months to come.
Rand's 8 Predictions for 2017
#1: Voice search will be more than 25% of all US Google searches within 12 months. Despite this, desktop volume will stay nearly flat and mobile (non-voice) will continue to grow.
I'm going out on a limb with this by predicting what most aren't — that voice search won't actually cannibalize desktop or typed mobile searches, but will instead just add on top of it. Today, between 20–25% of mobile queries are voice, but oddly, Google said in May 2016 the number was 20% whereas in September 2010, they'd said 25%. Either voice has been relatively flat, or the old number was incorrect.
KPCB's 2016 Trends report suggests the growth in voice search is higher, using implied Google Trends data (which, as those of us in SEO know, can be a dangerous, messy assumption). Clickstream data sampling and sources that track referrals (like SimilarWeb Pro) are likely better ways to measure the impact of cannibalization, and hopefully Google themselves (or third-party data sources with direct access) will report on the relative growth of voice to validate this.
In my opinion, voice search is the first true high-risk technology shift ever faced by the SEO world. If we see it cannibalize a substantive portion of search activity, we may find a pot that's been growing for 20 years is suddenly (possibly rapidly) shrinking. I'm still bullish on search growing for the next 2–3 years, but I'm watching the data carefully, as should we all.
#2: Google will remain the top referrer of website traffic by 5X+. Neither Facebook, nor any other source, will make a dent.
Here's SimilarWeb's breakdown for who sends traffic on the web:
I'd generally ignore "direct" as those include HTTPS->HTTP referrals that pass no referral string, every opening of every browser and browser tab, bookmarks, links from apps that don't carry referrals, etc. The data below is where I pay attention. There, Google is ~11X bigger than Facebook, which is ~1.5X YouTube.
My prediction is that Google continues to dominate, no matter the prognostications about Facebook or Snapchat or Amazon or anyone else making inroads to the overall traffic pie.
#3: The Marketing Technology space will not have much consolidation (fewer exits and acquisitions, by percentage, than 2015 or 2016), but there will be at least one major exit or IPO among the major SEO software providers.
Scott Brinker has been helpfully tracking the growth and changes to the marketing software landscape over the last decade, and there's been a metric ton of new entrants.
But, oddly enough, SEO has always remained a small player in the software world. The vast majority of the companies and tools in the list below are private, unfunded, and have annual revenues of <$1mm. A few larger players exist, but in every other marketing tech category, there's at least one player at 2–10X the size of our entire market combined.
Part of this is because very few entrepreneurs in the space have chosen to go the VC-backed, billions-or-bust route vs. pursue the relatively higher success and survival rates offered by small investors or bootstrapping. Part of it is because SEO as an industry is dependent on Google, which creates risk that many entrepreneurs and investors dislike. And part is because SEO has a bad reputation thanks to its shady past and a few spammy operators.
In 2017, I believe we'll see very little acquisition or IPO activity from martech players. But I think we will see one of the major SEO software players (most probably Yext, Searchmetrics, SEMRush, Brightedge, Conductor, STAT, Rio SEO, Sistrix, Yoast, or Moz itself) have a major exit. An IPO would make our field vastly more interesting to analysts and potentially investors and entrepreneurs, too. A large exit could start a wave of consolidation.
#4: Google will offer paid search ads in featured snippets, knowledge graph, and/or carousels.
In 2016, Google put shopping ads in image search, rolled out ads in local packs, and increased the number of top ads in AdWords to 4 (which can dominate many top-of-fold SERPs). Despite this, paid CTRs have been pretty flat.
Merkle/RKG data is awesomely transparent, but of course biased by the sites that use the agency and share their analytics/AdWords data. Directionally, it's usually solid, particularly on metrics like paid CTR, and I trust that it's rarely going to be way off. Their data also matches nicely to our own clickstream analyses, showing that 1.5%–2.5% of all search queries result in a click on a paid ad.
#5: Amazon search will have 4% or more of Google's web search volume by end of year.
You might have seen a report noting that Amazon is "beating" Google as the place consumers start their product searches. Unfortunately, that report used survey data, and we're all familiar with how poor web users are at estimating how they actually behave online.
Moz's clickstream data was more revealing here, showing that Amazon's probably ~2% the overall search volume of Google. You could certainly make the argument that perhaps only 4% of all Google searches are for products, and thus, Amazon is neck-and-neck. I suspect Google's still winning here, but my prediction is that Amazon will grow their search penetration and volume, in part thanks to Alexa/Echo, and in part because of their formidable Prime strategy, to be 4% or more of Google (doubling where they were this past summer).
#6: Twitter will remain independent, and remain the most valuable and popular network for publishers and influencers.
It's very in vogue to rag on Twitter — their share price has sunk. Their growth has been tepid. Trolls and abuse plague the platform and many of Twitter's leaders are culturally locked-in to a focus on "free speech" over improving the platform for abused and marginalized groups. Buzzfeed's report on these trends reveals a deep cultural rift that seems to be hurting the platform still.
Despite this, I'm bullish on Twitter remaining the most powerful way for publishers and influencers to connect, share, and converse. The platform's open systems (versus the closed ecosystems of Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, etc) and its huge media presence give it a hard-to-catch lead in this field. That, and no one else seems to be trying, possibly because Twitter hasn't shown the growth that closed networks like Facebook have.
My other prediction, that Twitter remains independent, is a thorny and unpopular one. Supposedly, Twitter's put itself up for sale, but the bidders have been less than excited (or perhaps the premium the company is seeking is simply too high). In 2017, I think we'll continue to see an independent Twitter, growing revenue and users slower than Wall Street wants, but maintaining their cultural and influencer status.
#7: The top 10 mobile apps will remain nearly static for the year ahead, with, at most, one new entrant and 4 or fewer position changes.
Mobile apps have been a bugbear for many big brands, marketers, and app creators. While apps have dominated time spent on mobile, apart from games, the money to be made and that precious time spent is almost all flowing to the top few apps.
Nielsen reported that Amazon broke into the top 10 this year, but apart from that, it's been fairly quiet in the rankings shakeups at the head of the app curve. What's scarier is that Google and Facebook own a full 8 of the top 10 apps, and those apps are responsible for more than 90% of all app activity.
This is a winner-take-all market, and one with a surprisingly short tail to its demand curve. I'm predicting almost no change in 2017. Apps will be dominated by these few. For SEOs, apps continue to provide some extra ranking opportunities, mostly in mobile on Android (and a little less on iOS), but the "App Takeover" of SERPs and mobile search never appeared. Hopefully, you didn't over-invest in the trend!
#8: 2017 will be the year Google admits publicly they use engagement data as an input to their ranking systems, not just for training/learning
2016 saw Google backtracking a bit on the issue of search/visit/click/pogostick data, most saliently via Paul Haahr's excellent slide deck, How Google Works: An Ranking Engineer's Perspective.
Since then, there have been fewer dismissals of this fact than in the past, but some Googlers have maintained in public talks and on Twitter that query and click data cannot influence rankings (which we've proven over and over is highly improbable).
I'm proud of Google for, over the last few years, being generally less misleading and more open on issues of how their search engine works. I'm hopeful this extends into the realm of engagement data because I believe it would have a real and positive impact on how many brands, publishers, and content creators of all kinds on the web think about what they create. The story in many circles is still "links + keywords," and the nuance that low-engagement content (and sites) will, over time, underperform even if they do these right, would be a great nudge in a positive direction.
Now it's your turn — where do you think I'm right? Wrong? Crazy? And what predictions are you making for SEO and search marketing in 2017?
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