#Air-Fed Suits Market Report

[softscummymammon]

Bruce Wayne x Mafia Boss!Male Reader

//Self Indulgent//

Bruce Wayne was a man of many talents. He's trained almost his entire childhood to become what he has desired. Through all his hard work, and by working in Gotham, he expected to have seen everything. But no matter the title given to him by Gotham's people, "The Greatest Detective", he felt like no such thing at this very moment.

He was stumped, admittedly, which was not often. He stared at the face and name of the screen of the Batcomputer like staring at it would make it change in fear of his glare. But it never did, and it wouldn't in the near or far future.

Bruce had been looking into one of the most prominent, yet well hidden, cartels selling drugs and other opioids underground and on the black market. It took him an astonishing two months to even track down one of their runners. It was so hidden in plain sight it was practically invisible. Once he'd gotten intel from one of the runners using his intimidation tactics, he was able to get a spy inside the ranks. They fed him information that got more incriminating the longer he was inside the operation.

But suspiciously, they recently went quiet. The last message he was able to receive from his informat, was that he was going to meet the boss soon, and he'd be able to tell Batman more about him after. Bruce never believed in coincidences. So, he went digging further and found many incidents including rival drug cartels. What he found, set a pit in his stomach.

The name and face printed on the file before him, held an uncanny resemblance to his one and only friend before his parent's murder, and that was, " _____ _____". The name was like lead on his tongue. You were his one true regret when he left for Batman. He disappeared, but you soon followed right after. Bruce had thought you were dead with how your name suddenly dropped off radar.

But now he knew. You're parents had also been killed when one of them failed to persuade a drug dealer to put his gun when they wouldn't buy from him. It was like deja vu all over again. His parents lying dead on the concrete, his mother's pearls drenched him blood. But what he read on the autopsy report, was none similar. Your parents died a slow death of suffocation, chocking on the blood filling their lungs while video cameras recorded you sobbing for them and trying to stop the bleeding.

Now, Bruce realizes just what he's dealing with. That name and face on the file, was none other than you, who took a job in a rival cartel against the killer of your parents and slowly climbed the ranks. You killed every man in your way to kill the bastard that killed your parents. But he couldn't stomach it, the fact the killer still had kids at home and a wife, set him the wrong way. You were only creating the scenario of what happened to you on those kids. What would stop them from killing you in the future?

He needed to stop this, and that's exactly what he set off to do. Dawning the suit and the cowl, he speed out of the cave in the Batmobile to one of the biggest known base of operation. It was a club called Apollo's Sun Strip and Bar in the East end. No matter how much he didn't want to admit, he couldn't deny that the east end was far worse in petty crime that central Gotham. He stopped two attempted assaults, three attempted robberies, and one cat in a tree.

Getting to the club wasn't hard, and Batman would have done more research on studying and watching their moves, but he was on a tight schedule. Using the shadows to his advantage, he crept in through the back of the club and made it to the rosters. Watching from above, he saw many of the dancers on the stage and the patrons sitting in their booths watching or at the bar. He's surprised to see how well managed the place was.

Slipping to the back of the place, it was completely dark, save for a corner of the room being lit up by one over hanging light. Stalking forward, he was surprised to find the lit up corner morph into one of a lounge. It wasn't empty.

Getting into a fighting position, Batman took out a batarang and held it up. A deep, sultry chuckle followed his movements, and the sound of a crystal glass getting set down on wood came right after. A figure sat in a cushioned chair, leaned back just far enough into the shadows to cover his face. They were dressed in a three piece tux. Black trousers and jacket with a red jeweled waist coat, and a deep maroon button up shirt.

He deep, yet smooth voice came from the shadow covered face, " Bruce, it's been a long time. Would you care for a drink perhaps, one with an old friend? " It was said so deceivingly, Batman almost missed the name attached to the sentence. He froze, and watched as the figure laughed in dark joy and slowly rises from the chair. Bruce gulped and wondered how his friend got so,...big.

You walked around one of the chairs and finally stepped into the light. Bruce took in your features, how they've sharpened, and how your eyes had grown darker. You titled your head and chuckled again, " Don't worry about the name, Bruce, your secret is safe with me. But, was isn't safe, " He walked up to Bruce and grabbed him lightly on the chin, "are those lips of yours. "

Bruce only had a second to think about your words before you attacked his lips with your own. He let out a surprised groan that was easily swallowed by you. His hand went slack and the sound of his weapon hitting the ground rung through the entire room as he got over his stupor.

Gasping for air when you pulled back, you lick your lips at the disheveled face he was sporting, or at least, what you could make of it. You chuckled, but kept your grip on his chin, "I always wondered how big bad Batsy has grown. And I have to say, I'm pleasantly surprised. "

Bruce huffed and panted for air like a dog, and you chuckled again. Dipping in, you peck his lips one more time before letting him go. Grabbing your glass that was on the table, you drink the rest of it and shoved it into Bruce's chest. He grunted and held onto it, looking up at you in confusion.

You chuckle and saunter away, an extra away in your hips and you comb your fingers through your hair, " For the identity, Darling. I'm giving you a little leeway. Now, I won't make this little game easy, Bruce. But I know, you never like anything easy. " At the end of your little speel, the lights flickered and you were gone. The only sound Bruce heard the the thump of the bass, and the murmurs of the people talking in the main room.

Looking down, Bruce found a single thumb print on the class. He smirked and looked back up to where you were last, " Sneaky bastard. "

//Hope you enjoyed it! //

@bigfan-fanfic

[iamdunn]

Miraculous Flash Forward part 2: Hei Mao

A Miraculous Fan-fic

Written By

AJ Dunn

Adrien went about his day grocery shopping and stocking his new home with personalized essentials. Something to make it more him and not as much Amelie, bless her heart fro trying. It had been nice having a mother even if it wasn’t his mother. Emelie remained in a coma in London. He had visited her everyday. It felt like he had finally healed from her loss only to have the wound ripped open again. The ache still seeped from his being as a dark shadow hung over him. Not only did he have to hide from the identity his father created for him, but also the bad publicity his father created as well. 

With groceries put away, and Plagg fed, Adrien set about finally unpacking his bags. He could hear the television turn on as Plagg scrolled through channels. News reports still talking about the capture of Hawk Moth even though it’s been two years. A report came on their air and he recognied Feliz’s voice. He hung his shirt and went downstairs to see. 

“I have been given full authority over the former Agreste Brand and we will be revitalizing this brand starting…” he stopped talking to the microphone at the podium to turn around. He was standing in front of the Agrest Building that Gabriel had built. Felix raised his hand as the blind covering the company name was removed and exposed the new name. 

“Graham De Vanily” 

“In honor of our beloved Emelie Graham De Vanily who was so terribly stolen away from us by the heinous villain Hawk Moth.” Felix’s fist clenched near his chest as he closed his eyes for a moment. Adrien was hurt hearing the words but Felix’s scheme was working. The crowd cheered. No one really knew exactly what happened to Adrien’s mother, but making her the face of this company’s new facelift, making her the victim in all of it, took the public's eye off of Adrien and showed the company’s sympathy for the victims rather than the villain. 

Camera flashed as Felix reopened his eyes. Reporters pushing forward with their demanding questions and microphones ready to accept his answers. 

“What about Adrien Agreste?”

“I’m sorry there is no Adrien Agreste.” Felix said sharply. It was what Adrien had asked him to do. 

“Then who was the model Gabriel used?” This was the part that Adrien knew Felix could handle. He watched as Felix threw on his best Adrien smile and scruffed his hair into the shaggy mane that was Adrien’s trade hair style. He was good. Adrien missed the antics of their childhood with his twin of a cousin. Adrien snorted a laugh then shook his head returning to his chores. 

“Is it dinner time yet?” Plagg complained. Adrien returned to the seating area. Plagg was still seated on his favorite armchair with a lump of cheese. It wasn’t Camembert but it seemed to satiate him enough. 

“You're right.” he smiled realizing how quickly the day went by. “Let’s go.” Adrien walked to the front door. Looking back at Plagg wondering why the little guy wasn’t moving. Plagg stared at him stupidly.

“You're not planning on taking the metro again,” Plagg complained. “When we can take the quicker route.”

“It’s still light outside, I can’t risk Cat Noir being seen by the public.” 

“He was seen last night by those guys?” 

“But who is going to believe a bunch of criminals?” Adrien realized he would have to think of something to maintain his own cover of darkness.

“But you're not even Cat Noir anymore.” Plagg reminded him. “Just change the appearance of your suit.”

“Wait,” Adrien walked back into the seating area. “I can do that?” 

“Kind of,” Plagg explained. “You will still be dressed in black, but you could… add a hoodie to cover your sunshine blond hair.” Plagg flew up and looked Adrien over. His tiny hand on his chin. “Maybe you could check out Marinettes’ website for some thoughts.” 

“But when I transform it automatically puts this design on me.” Adrien was confused. 

“It’s too basic,” Plagg complained. “Shadow Moth never wore a dress I can assure you but Mayura did. Polymouse looked nothing like Multimouse, and let’s face it, Luka was a way better holder for Sass than you.” Plagg was still sore about that one. Adrien thought about it. Sure a hoodie would help, but he didn’t want people to know there was A BLACK CAT superhero in Shanghai. 

“I’ll think about it. For now, we take the Metro.” He grabbed his coat and key then opened the door. 

Adrien got off the bus at the same stop as last night and went into the same store. This time he would grab something at random then head to the restaurant. He could smell something amazing coming from the restaurant down the street and it made him think of a seafood dish he had the last time they visited. Adrien found the seafood tanks in the back of the market and picked out 4 hairy crabs. 

“Cheng Sifu, I am here,” Adrien said as he entered the kitchen. He handed the bag with the four live crabs in it to Cheng. His eyes widened in excitement as if he had hoped for this.

“This is a very fortunate fateful food, Adrien.” He dropped the four crabs into the already boiling pot. “I started this broth earlier for another crab dish but these are much fatter and tastier.” Cheng proceeded to show Adrien how to prepare the broth and they worked quickly as the crab's shells turned bright red before they used a wire scoop to lift them from the pot. Cheng strained the broth from the pot setting it aside as they rinsed the crab in ice-cold water so they could deshell them. Cheng flung droplets of water from his fingers as he worked so quickly. Splattering Adrien on the face. Adrien laughed like a little kid seeing the playful grin on Sifu's face. 

“I give you Adrien Soup.” Cheng set a bowl down in front of Adrien. 

“De Vanily Soup.” Adrien corrected him. The steam rolled off the bowl as chunks of crab bobbed in the bowl. The red broth with vegetables floating sent an aroma into Adrien's face. He was proud to be able to know how to make this. Cheng played the accordion as Adrien scooped the soup into his mouth. He lost himself somewhere in the memory as he looked to his side smiling expecting to see Marinette laughing at her uncle. She wasn’t there. The smile drained from Adrien’s face as he looked back at Cheng. 

“We could call her.” Cheng set the accordion down then took a seat across from Adrien. He let his face fall back to his bowl as he continued to eat trying to regain his composure. He felt the burning in his eyes as the tears tried to well up but he swallowed them down with another bite of soup. 

“Best not.” He said then looked at his watch. “You know, the time difference.” He shrugged then lifted his empty bowl. They returned to the kitchen to clean up but the kitchen staff took his bowl and there was nothing more to do. “See you tomorrow Cheng Sifu.” Adrien gave him a quick wave then headed for the alleyway. It was very dark now as clouds were rolling in. Adrien thought about what Plagg had said earlier and imagined what his suit would look like with a hood. 

“Plagg claws out.” He said. Sure enough, as his suit covered his body from toe to head, a leather hood sprouted off the neck covering his head, his cat ears protruded from the top. It came down far enough over his eyes that while he could still see, it would make seeing his face that much harder. It was much different from the suit he wore as Aspik which completely covered his head, this one instead felt more modern and airy. He made his way back to Chao. 

“It will rain tonight, Xuesheng,” Chao said as Mao landed on the ground before him. “We will start with a few small lessons, but you will need to rest your Kwami.” Mao had to take a minute to take in what Chao had said.

“Rest my…” his breath caught in his lungs. “Kwami?” 

“You think me a fool? That I do not know what powers your ability.” Chao turned and headed into a side room of the temple. Mao followed him. There were many drawings on the walls, various characters that depicted magical beings. “Many believe them to be folklore. And to those who are not trained, they are.” Adrien sees a black cat adorned character from an ancient Chinese battle. “Many are taught here and sent to the guardian temple to become guardians. I was one of them.” Chao said.  

“You were a guardian?” Mao asked. 

“I was there when the temple was gobbled up by a sentimonster.” Chao turned to look at him. “It was you, and your partner that defeated it, and restored the temple.” 

Mao was shocked as he stood before his Sifu. Chao turned and walked deeper into the temple down a flight of stone stairs to a large room filled with various weaponry, sparring dummies and in the middle of the room a large sparring mat. Mirror lined the four walls surrounding the mat. The torch-style electric lighting illuminated the room in an orange glow. There was a small table in the corner with a plate of cheese and crackers.

“I assume Plagg still eats human-sized portions of cheese?” Chao asked. Mao chuckled. He was still nervous at the prospect of exposing his identity to anyone but Master Fu. “I assure you, it is safe here.” 

“Claws in.” He whispered. Plagg zipped out. His eyes exposing his shock as he found himself in a strange place. Until his eyes fell on the Sifu.

“Chao Sifu?” Plagg asked in surprise. He flew up to the old man gripping his face in his tiny hands. Chao chuckled at the action, bringing his hands to cup the Kwami.

“You seem… friendly.” Adrien felt a bit jealous as he watched his best friend warm up to a stranger.

“Plagg and I encountered much mischief.” He stared at the Kwami now sitting in his hands. “I was but a child when I went to the temple. I felt caged in. I did not want to be there.” he set Plagg down by the plate then brought his hands back together in front of himself. “Sometimes at night, Plagg and I would escape the temple and bound free through the mountains.” Adrien's jaw dropped as he heard the Sifu talk about his rebellious side. 

“Sounds like someone I know,” Adrien said acting innocent. 

“Cat Noir had plenty of freedom, while Adrien was locked in the best bedroom any teenage boy could want.” Plagg scoffed as he gobbled some cheese. 

“Oh, is that so?” Chao asked. 

“It’s a long story.” Adrien swung his arms in anticipation of his first lesson. 

“We shall start with some basic steps.” Chao led him to the center of the sparring mat after they kicked off their shoes. 

Adrien hurt so bad as he rolled out of bed the next morning. Not sure if he would be able to move. In the bathroom, he stripped out of his pajamas tossing them on the floor. He caught sight of his body in the ever-present mirrors that encircled the room. The main thing he hated about the bathroom. He was his own constant reminder of his father. 

“Hmm…” he mused in the mirror. “At least now I know what father would have looked like after taking a beating.” he chuckled. Plagg droned on something about being awake so early and not having anywhere to go. 

After soaking in the steaming hot jet stream tub Adrien sat on the couch with nothing but a towel wrapped around his waist. He had to lower the eclectic blinds on the windows to prevent possible sighting of the mysterious floating creature even though they were up high enough that it was most likely not a concern. 

He opened his laptop and began searching through design pages looking for ideas for his Hei Mao suit. 

“Nothing,” Adrien said frustrated after a while. 

“What about Marinette. She could design something for you.” Plagg offered. Adrien shook his head, he wanted nothing more than to wear a Marinette design again. 

“I can’t talk to her Plagg.” Adrien groaned. 

“But Felix can, and if I remember right he is the CEO of a fashion company am I right?” Plagg was on to something. He picked up his cell phone and dialed up his cousin.

“Adrien to what do I owe the pleasure of your call?” He sounded upset. 

“What is it, Felix?” Adrien’s question could wait. 

“I just got out of a meeting with public relations and they’re screaming for something to boost the community morale.” Adrien smiled. This was purrfect he thought.

“I think I can solve your problem and you can solve mine.” Adrien started. “Initiate a community-wide design competition. The theme is aged-up versions of Ladybug and Cat Noir in more… fitting attire.”

“It’s a competition?” Felix asked. “What would the reward be?” 

“How about the winner gets to spend an entire day or week as a Graham De Vanily designer and their design is featured in the catalog, as say a costume.” Adrien grinned. “I’ll be the final judge, a silent Judge.”

“How,” Felix started, his voice sounding confused. “Does this benefit you?” 

“Remember that girl, Marinette?” Adrien asked him. 

“How could I forget,” Felix remember the beautiful girl from the video sent to Adrien.

“She’s a designer and well, I really want a costume designed by her.” Adrien wasn’t entirely lying. 

“Let me guess, you want the Ladybug costume.” Felix scoffed. 

“Exactly, well one of each. But the winner will be the one who designs the best of each costume, it’s a two for the win.” Adrien’s face beamed and he was glad that Plagg was the only one who could see it. 

“I’ll put the word out,” Felix said coldly before hanging up the phone. 

It had been nearly a month since the announcement for the costume design went out. He watched Marinette’s webpage and even found Alya’s blog. They definitely knew about it and even commented that Marinette would be entering her designs in as well. Adrien was so excited. His body was getting more accustomed to the beatings dished out by Chao Sifu, and his cooking skills got better with Cheng Sifu. During the day he often went past the temple to watch Chao Sifu teaching classes to groups of younger kids. They seemed to be far too young to learn martial arts but he was also forced to participate in far more activities by the time he was their age. 

He spoke a number of different languages and played the piano. Adrien hadn’t touched one since he left his in his old bedroom. Felix said he wanted to move into the Agreste manor but felt uncomfortable with that idea given the current state of the public opinion regarding it. So he agreed to ensure the mansion was being maintained for when Adrien was ready to return to it. 

Adrien felt a little stalkerish as he checked Marinette’s social media accounts daily, followed Alya’s blog, and even yes. The Lady blog. Marinette got more beautiful as she grew up. He had been watching his friends from afar. Nino seemed to be doing good. He even found Luka’s page. He wondered why Marinette hadn’t mentioned anything on her pages about her boyfriend or husband. Luka seemed happily married as he bragged about various things his twins were doing, never posting pictures of them though, or his wife. 

Something tugged at Adrien’s heart as he scrolled through her pages. Juleka now served as her primary female model for her designs and even Luka joined in on occasion. He used to be Marinette’s model. As the contest date closed in, Adrien had to fight the urge to return to Paris for it. He wanted to be there, to witness Marinette winning. He knew her designs were going to be the winners. The days dredged by as Adrien maintained his covert agenda. His evening meals with Cheng Sifu, and his training with Chao Sifu. Two people that maintained his secrets. Even the grocery clerk aided him in his endeavors as she would help him pick out his fateful food items each day. 

“So, are you planning on being here for the judging?” Felix asked. 

“You know I can’t.” Adrien felt like his father, he had always had Nathalie walk around with the tablet showing him each of the designs. He didn’t even want to be that present. 

“I have an idea,” Felix said. “I’ll call you right back.” A few minutes passed when Adrien’s phone chimed on his duo to pick up a video call. He saw Felix standing in a mirror wearing a pair of clear lens glasses. The image was coming from a micro camera in the frames. “This way, You can hear and see everything and no one will be the wiser.” 

“How, can you hear me?” he asked. Felix reached up to the earpieces over both ears. 

“The speakers are her like with earbuds only they don’t go in the ear. I can’t see you though unless I look at my phone.”

“This is purrfect.” Adrien beamed. He saw his cousin groan dropping his shoulders.

“Did you just make a cat pun?”

“Yep.”

“Are you blushing?”

“Pawsibly.” 

“You’re encourageable.” Felix turned away from the mirror. He was in his suit at the Bourgeois Hotel. It was just like the one Chloe used to live in. 

“I know.” Adrien fought back the urge to say something cattish. 

“Goodbye, Adrien.” Despite his cold tone, Felix really did seem to enjoy their dynamics. He was the straight-laced one and Adrien, fun and playful. 

“Could you imagine Plagg?” Adrien slumped back in his chair. “If Felix was given this miraculous,” he said holding up his hand. A look of terror crossed Plagg’s face as if he was threatened to never be given cheese again. Adrien laughed. 

It was the day of the competition and Adrien watched as Felix straightened his tie. A chill running down his spine as he recalled how his father used to do it. Felix really was the younger version of his father. Sometimes he forgot that they had different fathers. Even though he looked nothing like his father, rather they both looked like Gabriel and Amelie. 

Adrien shook the feeling off his shoulders as he watched his cousin leave the bathroom. The venue was set up at the Graham De Vanily building in the showroom. There were tons of people scattered about the room with various changing stalls set up using temporary wall structures. Felix walked through the halls slowly inspecting each station. Two models to each one in a Cat Noir suit, the other in a Ladybug suit. The gender specification had been an explicit requirement for the event. 

Felix stopped by each inspecting the details and scoffed moving on to the next. Most of them were near replicas of the original suits. 

“Is there just one person here who didn’t copy the original design?” Felix fumed. 

“There,” Adrien said through the screen. He had to mirror his phone to the TV so he could get a better look at everything. His heart dropped when he recognized the old familiar midnight hair. It was no longer pulled into two down ponytails, instead, it was long and flowing. There was a bit of curl to it as it swayed back and forth with her movements. She was preparing her model already in costume. “I hope she’s not married,” he said before he realized his cousin could hear everything. 

“Miss Dupain-Cheng,” Felix said stepping up behind her. “What have you got for us this time.” He at least sounded pleasant. She spun around to face him. Adrien watched her face as it lit up in a bright red hue. 

“A..A... Adrien?” Adrien could feel heat welling up in her heart even though she was, once again mistaking Felix for him. The fact that she was still thinking about him and tripping over her words at the thought she was in his presence made him wish he had gone. 

“Felix, actually.” he took both of her hands in his looking down at them as he placed a kiss on each knuckle. “Adrien was a fool for letting a gem such as yourself slip through his fingers. Adrien fumed as his cousins’ obvious attempt to annoy him. Marinette’s cheeks returned to their normal hue as her face melted into sadness. Adrien’s heart broke for a minute. 

“Do you need a tissue, Adrien?” Plagg asked. Adrien ignored him so as to not expose him to Felix who could hear everything except the Kwami. 

“Show us what you have made for us.” Felix said. No one knew he was televising this for Adrien. Marinette explained in detail the design of this new Lady Noir Suit. It wasn’t all red as Ladybugs had been instead there was more black around the waist with a light red tulle skirting around the waist allowing for movement while offering a bit more coverage to the more sensitive areas. Another Tulle adornment lay over the breasts. 

“Exquisite Marinette,” Felix said.

“Ask about the signature stitching.” Adrien chimed in quickly. He was nearly biting at the bit as he watched his cousin explore every detail of the suit.

“Ah-hem. Um, show me your signature stitching.” He looked up at Marinette who suddenly blushed.

“How do you know about that?” Marinette shrieked. 

“Tell her Gabriel had made reference to it after other designs she had done.” Adrien threw in.

“I am the CEO of a fashion company, it is my job to know about that,” Felix smirked. Marinette pulled out another suit, it was designed for a man but she held up the collar piece showing the distinct gold embossed threading signing her name through the stitch. 

“You did that with each of these designs?” he mused then moved on to the Cat Noir suit. Adrien swallowed hard when he saw Luka wearing the Cat Noir Suit. He almost didn’t recognize him with the hood pulled nearly over his face. The Ears protruding through the hood even seemed to have a little fluff to them. The hood flowed down the back with fine red lines detailing the changes in the material. The extra padding around the soft spots was highly more with the deep red. Felix walked around Luka slowly inspecting every detain including the attached belt that held a baton. The extra-long belt that also served as Cat’s tail dangled down to the floor. Adrien wondered if his belt was actually longer now than it was when he was a teenager, he was much taller now. “Why is this red and not Neon green as his ring?” 

“This design is meant more for stealth. The red.” Marinette blushed. 

“Ah, she’s so cute.” Adrien didn’t mean to say that out loud. Felix snorted. 

“Who is Cat Noir without his Ladybug?” she finished. “I added more black to her’s to signify him on her so I thought I’d give him a piece of her.” Adrien felt warm at the thought. “As for the hood, Cat Noir has such bright hair, so this would provide him more stealth.” She scooped up the tail belt holding the end out for Felix to inspect. In fine detail along the edge of the belt was the customary Marinette signature. 

“Very good Miss Dupain-Cheng,” Felix again took her hands. He flipped them over and even rubbed his fingers along the back of her hands. “Lovely, sure you didn’t make these by hands these hands are far too nice to have labored so.” Ooh, that smooth talker. Adrien was standing now anger fumed on his face. Felix turned away and began walking to another stall. 

“Wait.” Marinette’s voice was small through the receiver. Felix turned around. Luka was holding her shoulders as she stood in front of him face Felix. She nearly shook as Adrien swore he saw a teardrop from her chin. “Can you tell him, if you see him…”

“What that you love him? I saw that video message you sent him. Was that your attempt to confess your feelings or just console a friend.” Felix seemed a bit harsh but Adrien bit back his words wondering what it was Marinette had said in the video.

“Tell him we miss him.” Ah there it was the fire in her eyes she was angry. “We miss our friend.” She turned away from Felix in a huff. Felix laughed.

“What are you doing Felix?” Adrien barked.

“Congratulations Marinette, I think you might just be our winner.” He scoffed then turned around. 

“I just had to see her fire up, oh Adrien,” Felix whispered. “I can see why she means so much to you.” Felix tapped a button on his phone and disconnected the call. Adrien had recorded the entire video call. He replayed the video showing Cat Noir’s suit. He memorized every detail. Mulling it over in his head before setting his phone down and calling on his transformation. 

He ran to the bathroom to examine his new suit. Every detail mimicked Marinette’s design. He suddenly realized and reached for his belt tail. It was longer. He studied the red stitching design and found it. Her signature was embedded into the magic suit he now wore. 

[thejakeformerlyknownasprince]

Animorphs in Zombie Apocalypse AU?

• It’s been seven years since the end of the war.  Three years since the Animorphs — all six of them — stumbled off of the Rachel on its return, over two dozen ex-yeerk-hosts in tow.  It’s beginning to feel like this peace might last.

• Rachel’s in the middle of a business lunch when the call comes in.  Her line of fragrances (“Animal Essence by Rachel Berenson: Let out your wild side”) has performed pretty well this quarter.  But there are always marketing campaigns to manage and deals to sign, which is why she and her PR manager Linda are in a trendy Brooklyn café when the phone in her purse buzzes.

Jake tries to sound calm, as he tells her that they’re being called in.  Because it’s Jake, he almost succeeds.  No details yet, he says, just a behavior-altering pathogen.  Possibly extraterrestrial origin.

Around her, the room has gone cold and strange and far away.  How silly the delicate spread of quinoa and avocado on her plate appears now, how pointless the fan of business cards in her hand and manicure on her nails.

“My cousin,” she says, and then “family emergency,” and then “I have to go.”

•  Marco’s head lifts when the din of the crowd goes quiet ahead of him, scanning automatically for trouble.  Jordan Berenson is cutting through the crowd on the dance floor.  She’s utterly out of place in her full business suit amidst the night club’s flash and camp, her straight posture bizarre among the half-naked slouch of bodies that surrounds her.

“Hey there, G-woman!” Marco calls over the music.

“She’s a fed?” his security guard Rena asks sharply, glancing at the line of cocaine clearly visible on the nearest end table.

Marco waves Rena away.  “She’s family.”

He sees Jordan absorb the label with no small amount of surprise.  He’s not sure what the fuck else they’d count as: they’re not friends, but that doesn’t change the fact that they fought and cooked and lived and nearly died together during the war.

“I’m here on behalf of the NSA-CDC joint commission,” Jordan says, trying a small smile.

“And what’s Uncle Sam want with little old me?”  Even as Marco says it, he knows: he really really does not want to hear what Jordan is about to say.

•  Cassie rolls to her feet when the Army transport jeep approaches, heart already beating faster.  The hork-bajir preserve doesn’t get many human visitors, and the official ones never bring good news.  She glances over at Tobias – who was, like her, listening to Toby tell a surprisingly entertaining version of their war story to a group of youngsters – and sees him tense, feathers flaring.

Please, she thinks, don’t let it be the start of another “human” rights battle.  Which just goes to show that it’s been a while since the war, long enough that she thinks another spat over land grants is the worst thing that can happen to this community.

• «Prince Aximili.»  The aristh looks nervous enough to be about ready to trip over his own hooves.  «Sir, there’s a message for you.  It’s from Earth.»

Ax nods automatically, even knowing that the gesture won’t mean anything to his fellow andalites.  «Who on Earth?»

The aristh shuffles his back hooves, tail tucked close to his body.  «Just… Earth.  A human called the President of the United States.  She says she’s calling on behalf of the entire planet.»

A war-prince must always project calm and confidence, to reassure all warriors and civilians who might be watching.  Ax manages, only just barely, to remain still and inhale slowly.  To keep his voice level when he says, «Thank you.  I’ll take the call in my private quarters.»

• There are three of them in the cramped observation room.  Then four, then five, and finally six.  A unit, huddled together and barefoot and unable to speak.  They’re not the only ones here for the meeting, of course.  Other people await them in the next room: the Joint Chiefs, the U.N. representatives.  Collette and Timmy.  Peter.  Tom, Jordan, Walter and Michelle.  The president.

On the other side of the glass, Eva beats her hands against the wall.  A guttural moan gargles in the back of her throat.  She’s walking forward, not seeming to realize that she encounters a wall again and again.

The flesh has already rotted off her extremities, leaving bone and putrescent muscle exposed underneath the peeling curls of skin.

“We’ll find a cure,” Cassie says.  Even as she tries to breathe through a nightmare come to life, a flashback made present.  “We’ll find a way—”

“My mom is dead.”  Marco’s voice is as steady as the hands of a man sawing off his own leg.  “No heartbeat.  No brain activity.  No respiration, digestion, circulation.”

Tobias looks back into the room, then at Marco.  «But…»

“She’s an organ donor.”  Marco’s eyes are dry, but he sniffs hard to keep them that way.  “Wanted her body used for science, for humanity, when she couldn’t use it anymore.  She’s dead.  We’re respecting her wishes.”

Eva’s mouth gnashes at the air, teeth and jawbone exposed where her lips have already decayed.  Her fingertips leave streaks of gore on the plexiglas.

“We know it spreads by fluids,” Jake recites dully.  “That even a few drops can infect an entire water system.  We know that it kills the hosts within hours of infection, and then uses their bodies to try and reproduce itself.  We know it can be killed by fire, and by beheading the host, but so far that’s all we know.”

«How many humans have suffered its effects so far?» Ax asks.

“We don’t know,” Jake says.  “Lowest estimate’s a few thousand.”

“And the highest?” Cassie asks.

He turns to look at her.  The answer’s there on his face, in the way he can’t seem to stop himself from reaching out to take her hand.

• “How bad is it?” Ronnie asks Cassie that night.

She pulls him into her arms, desperate to sink into warmth and soft muscle and still-living flesh.  “Remember last time humanity got attacked by an alien pathogen?” she asks.  “Remember how that ended for the invading parasites?”

He has to know that she’s dodging the question.  But then he wasn’t in the room when the graph tracing the U.S. watersheds spread slowly from blue to red, the entire continent glowing sickly crimson within weeks.  The heading at the top said Conservative Estimate.  They never saw the non-conservative one.

• Please remain calm, the president’s broadcast says, and stay inside your homes.  Boil any water before drinking, she adds, even though they don’t think that that will do any good.  Better to give people something to do, some way to feel like there’s still hope.

• Rachel goes up against entire hordes.  She becomes elephant, alligator, grizzly and cheetah.  She perfects the necessary motions to grab and rip, to sever the spinal column in one bite or one slash.  She wades through firestorms as a salamander or rhinoceros, swoops in on kafit wings or surges upward on lerdethak tentacles to rip bodies to bits.  Sometimes the others join her.  They get infected a dozen, a hundred times, and each time they morph and survive.

• Which is where Tobias’s suggestion comes from.

«I say we arm the populace,» he says.

It’s the six of them, sitting around Marco’s kitchen table — one of his kitchen tables in one of his houses — after yet another bout of endless killing and very little progress.

“Meaning what?” Jake says.

“The civilian death toll’s already high enough, if you ask me,” Marco says.  “Seeing as how everyone and their aunt is out there with hunting rifles and modified dracon beams blowing their neighbors away.”

Cassie winces.  He’s not wrong.  The riots have cost more lives than the plague, according to the latest estimates.

«We’re safe,» Tobias points out.  «Or we can fix ourselves.  Because we’re morphers.  We have the cube… why not use it as widely as possible, on as many people as we can find?»

“That’d be illegal,” Jake says.

Rachel lets out a dull laugh.  Cassie can see her point.  They’re way past that by now.

“And when the vampires start morphing too?” Rachel asks.  “What then?”

“Don’t call them that,” Marco snaps.  “They’re dead bodies with parasites inside, not…”  He laughs, humorless. “Vampires, revenants, the undead, that’s all stuff you play for pretend on some television show.  It’s makeup and bad writing.”

“Yeah,” Rachel says, “just like aliens.  Just like shapeshifters.”

«I sincerely doubt that the infected would have the necessary mental abilities to sustain focused attention upon achieving an animal shape,» Ax says.  «Tobias’s proposal would indeed break several laws set by at least half a dozen species… and it may be the only way to save this planet.»

“How do we make sure the civilians are using the morph tech responsibly?” Jake asks.  Which shows that he’s already thinking about it.  Already halfway there.

• They make an announcement on the only remaining television channel.  They send out a broadcast on every frequency that emergency radios will pick up.  They go even more old-school, and pass out fliers.  Anyone who wants the morphing can come.  Can wait in line, sometimes for hours, to press their fingers against the box in Marco’s hand.  Acquiring DNA is their own problem.  So is the two-hour limit, for all of the warnings that Cassie repeats ad infinitum to the waiting crowds and the folks at home.

It’s inevitable, really, when the panic breaks out one day outside the elementary school where they’re recruiting.  No one can say for sure if the woman was actually infected, or if the man next to her just thought she was.

Eight people are trampled to death in the ensuing crush.  Nearly a hundred more are injured, too many to treat in a town that has already run short on dozens of essentials that must be shipped in from other parts of the country.  No one can say how many are infected, just that the Animorphs spend nearly a week clearing the undead out of the area around the elementary school before it’s finally safe to use again.

• The reports coming out of the densely-populated East Coast are shocking.  There was a battle between human and undead outside Yonkers, and now Yonkers is overrun.  All groundwater from the Chesapeake Bay watershed is now considered infected, take precautionary measures.  Florida has closed its borders, and is gunning down anyone who gets too close.  A riot over a shipment of bottled water took out eighteen square blocks in downtown Philadelphia, and took out the entire shipment of water as well.  The wealthiest residents of Boston and Manhattan are moving off-planet as fast as craft will take them, leaving the rest of the planet to die.

And then one day the reports… stop.

No CNN, no NPR, no MSNBC.  No U.S., not really, not anymore.

• “I’m going to go lie down,” Jake’s father says, after a long day in the lab.  And, “It’s just a headache, I’m sure.”

It’s the last thing he ever says.  Eight hours later, Tom becomes the one to shoot him in the head.

• When Rachel picks up the phone, Jordan says, “You know you’re my hero, right?”

Rachel rushes out of the house, phone up to her ear, desperate for a better signal.  “How… you…”  She draws a sharp breath.  “It’s been three months!”  Not just three months since she heard from her sister.  Three months since anyone that she knows of has succeeded in making a long-distance call.

“Sat phone,” Jordan says.  “Government-issue.  We’ve all been taking turns using it, in here.”

“Holy shit.”  Rachel pulls the gun off of her belt and, almost unthinkingly, puts a bullet between the eyes of the child who has been shuffling toward her on corpse-stiff limbs.  “How are you?  How’s DC?”

“Not great, actually.  INSCOM’s got me and a bunch of other essential personnel in a bunker.  Or they did, anyway.”  Jordan clears her throat.  “The perimeter’s been breached, and there are about twenty of us holed up in this room.  Maybe four—”  Her voice wavers, steadies.  “Four, five hundred hostiles outside, judging from the security cameras.”

“I’m—”  Rachel is running down the street, cataloguing morphs.  “I’m coming for you, just hang on.”

“Rachel.”  Jordan’s voice is terribly sad.  She’s three thousand miles away.  “Just listen, okay?”

Rachel sits on the ground.  Curls into herself.  Fetal position, a ball of helpless rage.

“We’re each taking one phone call, and it just seemed really important to me.”  Jordan takes a breath.  “To tell you that I love you.  That you’ve always been my hero.  Since… forever, really.  And that everything I am, everything I’ve done, is because of you.  So…”

There’s a noise in the background of the call.  One Rachel doesn’t want to identify.

“Tell Mom and Sarah I love them, yeah?” Jordan says.

Their mom’s been dead two weeks.  Sarah is MIA.  “I will,” Rachel says.  “I promise.  Jordan—”

“Time’s up, gotta go.”  There’s a click, and the line goes dead.

•  Ax lies so smoothly, so thoroughly, that he doesn’t know if he even remembers how to tell the truth.  The fight against the pathogen is going well, he tells the Andalite Navy.  Humanity is doing well.  There’s no need for alarm.  No need for drastic action.  Yes, he would like to stay here indefinitely, but only to do what he can to assist the clean-up efforts.

•  They morph every six hours, setting alarms to make sure that it happens.  There is no uninfected water, not anymore, which means they’re constantly exposed.  It can’t last forever.  One of these days, Tobias knows, one of them is going to go in their sleep.  And there’s nothing to be done to fend it off indefinitely.

•  The being who appears in Marco’s living room is human and raptor and andalite and most definitely none of the above.  (Ketran, Rachel will say later, and then silently shake her head when they ask her what the word means.)  They all still recognize the Ellimist when they see him.

“I came to you once with an offer,” the Ellimist says.  “Your lives, and your families’, in exchange for relocation to a different planet.  I can bring your families back.  Save them, and you.  A way to preserve the human species, a final desperate measure.”

“And all of a sudden it’s back on the table?” Marco demands.

The Ellimist nods, or maybe he’s just bowing his head in grief.

They look around at each other, needing no words to communicate their thoughts.

They were so young, the last time they had this offer, Rachel thinks now.  She was just a little girl, too caught up in worrying about being in love with a nothlit and disappointing her father to understand what was really at stake.  She missed it entirely, the reason Jake and Marco were the ones to hesitate and grieve.  They’d both lost loved ones to the yeerks already.  They’d known what was at stake, the way that the little girl she’d been at the time could not have known.

Now she understands.  Now, I can bring your families back isn’t abstract or principled.  It’s real down to her gut, down to her pores.  Now she understands, as do they all, just how much war can take.  They’re adults.  This time, their eyes are open.  Their decision is informed.

This time, Jake doesn’t hesitate when he speaks for them all.  “Go fuck yourself,” he says.  “It’s our planet, and we’ll fight for it to the very last man.”

[pertinax--loculos]

‘Dash’

So, for funsies I went through @yourocsbackstory to try to get myself in the writing mood again. This is what happened. I stopped at ‘Skills’ cuz I’ve already spoiled enough if you read close enough haha.

Come meet Dash.

Introduction

My name is Dash.

Or, well, it’s not really. That’s what everyone calls me. It circumvents the pain that comes with my first name, the questions that come from my last.

The knowledge that comes from my second.

I thought my life was pretty much mapped out from here. There was the beginning, that I barely remember. The next chapter, that I wish I could forget. The third, the honeymoon. And then now; not the best, far from the worst, an existence I was fairly certain I’d be able to bear, at least until the drugs or the alcohol overwhelmed me and my body gave out and I’d be buried in an unmarked plot under a false name with maybe three people to mourn me. If I was lucky.

Then that idiot fundie wandered into my life.

The Church is a fucking blight on society, the worst thing that’s happened since organised religion first got a foothold within civilised communities. It’s like they took all of the parts that made people unwilling to admit they were Christian in intelligent company and emphasised their importance until they were the only things that mattered.

To say nothing of what they think of the brainbent.

But unfortunately, what the old movies and books used to say is accurate. Give people a common enemy and they’ll unite under almost any flag.

The brainbent weren’t an enemy. But you consider the prospect of the barista at your local coffee place potentially being able to tell the future, or to read fucking minds, and tell me you would’ve stood against the Church.

I’m sure you will.

You’re lying.

Which is why Raleigh was such a surprise.

The Partners focus on the commoners, on people who know what the Church is about but haven’t been indoctrinated since birth. Members are basically written off as a lost cause. Even if, somehow, that person would’ve been a supporter if they’d been born in the right place, it’s not worth trying to convince them after years and years of brainwashing. They learn to suppress any thoughts, any opinions, that don’t jive with the company line. Trying to tell them otherwise is useless.

Which is why I don’t.

And still he came back.

I mean, Alec is probably right. He normally is. Odds are I’m being an idiot by even considering that this guy may be open-minded enough to accept that people exist that don’t believe the same as he does.

(And that’s not even going into all the other fucked-up facets of my existence.)

But for some reason, I’m willing to take that chance.

Even if it kills me.

Family I

There was always the memory of the Others.

It wasn’t a clear comparison; it wasn’t like he could look at Now and realise that it was different to Then. It was more like some weird false memory from early childhood buried deep within someone; a recollection of a room full of glass when apparently it had been an open-air market. A jar filled with blue that no one else remembered.

A loving mother and father. A melody without words.

There were other hints, of course. They never raised a hand at the child they insisted was his brother. They refused to acknowledge his grasp of genetics and never gave an explanation for the colour of his eyes. When he woke screaming for a mother he knew he no longer had the false one pretended, but she never offered the glass of milk, never pulled him onto her lap and stroked his hair and sung that song until he drifted off into gentler dreams.

Things got worse and worse as he got older. The more he could articulate the problems he had with the narrative they fed him the worse the punishments got. The first time he’d mentioned having another, a different, father they’d been too taken aback to respond; the reaction the second time had ensured he’d never bought it up again.

Every achievement, every failure, always framed within what he wasn’t and what he’d lost, what he lacked and how he disappointed.

One day, teenaged and trying to squirm his way into their good graces, he’d heard his brother mentioning the girl in class. He’d piped up as well, after seeing their indulgent responses, letting them know that there was someone in his class too, a boy who’d caught his eye. He’d been banned from school for a week after that.

His father told him people would ask questions about the bruises.

 Friends

He’d assumed that the confession that the intimacy bought him no pleasure would be enough to make her disappear. He’d lost acquaintances for less, many times before.

So when she turned up on his doorstep three days later he stopped, stunned, with the door open.

She raised her eyebrows at him. “Letting in the cold?”

It was nearly a hundred degrees outside, and he was already sweating through the long-sleeved shirt he’d pulled on to open the door. He stepped back to let her in, still speechless, and followed her as she walked confidently through the rooms to his favourite.

He swallowed a few pills just for something to do. It was a stupid idea, his supply was already running low, but he hoped the kick would help him through whatever conversation was to follow.

She watched, her brows pulled together in disapproval, but didn’t break the silence.

“What do you want?” he said finally, his voice too rough, too apprehensive. He’d told her he couldn’t do it anymore, but he knew deep within himself that if she offered enough…

She shrugged, her face clearing. “I’m of the opinion that no one should be alone, today of all days.”

Dash just stared at her, utterly uncomprehending.

“Y’know,” she said, and then raised her eyebrows a little when his expression made it clear he didn’t, “Christmas?”

Oh, fuck, of course. He’d known the date was approaching but it meant less than nothing to him, except for the fact that most of the shops were closed. He really shouldn’t have had those pills, not if he was gonna have to last another two days before he could restock.

She kicked her legs out in front of her as she leaned back against the wall, eyes roving the spartan room. “So you got a tv or what?”

Which was how they ended up sprawled on his bed, fully clothed and above the covers, picking at the leftovers of a pizza he’d had in the fridge while a tiny voice in the back of his head insisted that this was what friends actually were.

 Education

He accepted the envelope with a sinking feeling. He knew what the letter inside was going to say.

Miss Phillips gave him an encouraging smile all the same.

“I know you struggle in some classes,” she said kindly. “But you really do excel in others. And really, all you need is a little extra help in English and I think you’ll be doing fine. I’ve explained that to your parents in your report.”

Like that’s gonna fucking help, Dash thought, but all he did was smile and nod. It wasn’t her fault he was stupid. It was his. He’d been told that many times.

He walked to his locker and gathered his things slowly. He could already hear his brother crowing in his ear, with his perfect scores and better comments. If he didn’t know better he’d think that the teachers were aware of the identify of their father and tailored their comments to suit.

But if that was the case why did they still throw him under the bus?

It wasn’t that he didn’t want to learn. He did, and he loved the stories, loved listening to what happened and even analysing why the author might have put certain characters and phrases in certain parts and why. But expressing that through writing was beyond him. Understanding why or where a comma went or why through was spelled o-u-g-h but throw was spelled o-w sent his head into a spin and there was nothing he could do about it. Nothing his teachers could do about it either, as they spent their time with those that were better, those who had a right to their last names instead of a tenuous and fluctuating claim.

Mr Carr, in the workshop, was astonished by him. Said he was among the best students he’d ever had, was amazed by his ability with electronics and the way he could take apart and put together components without ever glancing at the instructions. He said he was a natural, that if he wanted he could certainly go places, because there was always a need for someone to fix those things that were broken.

But his parents assured him that he was what was broken, and the grades sent him into the dark. They never even read Mr Carr’s report.

 Family II

Family had always been a dirty word.

He was caught in a weird sort of limbo; there was that which he remembered that he wasn’t supposed to bring up, and then that which was current but which he was not really a part of. Intellectually, academically, he knew what a family was. Hell, even from observation he knew what a family was. If he took a step back, removed himself from the equation and simply watched Father and Mother and Brother interact, then he knew what a family was supposed to be.

But try to impose himself upon that and he was reprimanded, reminded that he was not a part of it, that the family he might’ve been a part of no longer existed, that he was Other, that he was Alien and unwanted and his duty was only to disappear and to cause no more problems than he already had.

So when he met his family he was overwhelmed.

They walked through the door and were suffocated in affection, enough that Dash had to get out of there; he found him later, hidden in the garden, his face concerned.

“We were wondering where you’d got to,” he said, quietly, gently, as he always did.

“They don’t need me there,” Dash replied.

His eyebrows tugged together in the beginning of a frown. “Maybe not, but we want you there.”

Dash’s laugh was bitter, a little too manic. “No you don’t.”

It took a while – way too long, he should’ve been back with his family – to coax Dash out of the greenery and into the bulk of the backyard. Waiting there was an elderly woman, older than anyone Dash had had reason to interact with.

“This him?” she’d said, but before either of them could react she’d grabbed Dash’s hand and yanked him forward.

Dash couldn’t help but flinch. It didn’t appear to affect her. Her eyes, bright and the same colour as his, searched his face.

“Ah, yes, very good,” she said. Dash glanced around wildly but he was just standing there, something that might’ve been embarrassment pinking his cheeks.

“Are you satisfied now?” he said.

The old woman grinned at him over Dash’s shoulder.

“Yes,” she said. Dash felt his fingers on his elbow; just before he towed Dash back into the anonymity of the rest of the garden they heard her speak again.

“I see what you say about his eyes.”

 Rivals

Fuck.

Dash had managed to avoid this dick for nigh on two months. Why the hell he was encountering him now, just as the oxy started to kick and make him loose and easy and happy, was anyone’s guess.

Probably the Members would say it was god’s work. Dash was pretty sure it was a punishment.

The guy stalked up to him, characteristic scowl twisting his features. He had to be six inches taller than Dash, but he didn’t back down.

“What the hell are you doing here?” he growled.

Dash stared into his dark eyes, tossing up a number of responses. Sarcastic, sardonic, flippant, honest; none of them seemed quite right.

He went with combative, in the end.

“I heard you’d be here,” he said, conversational. “Figured I might take the chance to learn your name.”

The guy’s eyes narrowed. They were close enough that Dash could feel his breath on his face.

“What the hell would you need that for?” he said. “Seeing as you’re not supposed to be here, and all.”

Dash twitched his shoulders in a shrug. “Yeah, well. Sorry, but I’m not really good at taking orders.”

Something flickered behind the guy’s eyes, something that might have been amusement. “I get the feeling that you’re more likely to do the opposite of what the orders might suggest.”

Dash caught his eyes again and raised an eyebrow. “Wow. It’s almost like you know me.”

Pause. The guy’s breathing had evened out, but he hadn’t moved away.

“Are we having, like, a civil conversation right now?” he said.

Dash quirked his eyebrow again. “Certainly seems that way.”

Another couple of beats. “Is it just me, or does there seem to be an extraordinary amount of sexual tension involved?”

Dash couldn’t stop the grin from tugging at his lips, even as he leaned in closer.

“Oh,” he said quietly. “It’s not just you.”

 First Love

Despite the mistake of telling Father about him, Dash kept watching him.

Over the week it took for the bruises to fade he thought about him. When he first returned to school, his was the first face he looked for.

He didn’t seriously think it would lead to anything. How could it, given what everyone believed? But Connor was new to the city, and he wasn’t involved with the Church. That much Dash had figured out through rumour and innuendo. And he was left alone, during recess and lunch, all of the Members turning their noses up at him, to the point where Dash wondered why on earth his parents had sent him to this private school. After all, there were schools for commoners. They weren’t as good, but that was the sacrifice people made.

Not Connor’s parents, apparently.

And he was the only one who didn’t conceal his staring at Dash’s fading bruises.

He’d been staring beforehand, of course. That was what had made Dash first mention him to Father, the mistake that had led to him realising that he wasn’t the same as his brother and never would be. But it was he alone that continued to stare even after Dash’s absence. The others seemed to have been told not to.

Not Connor.

Dash cornered him after school one day, halfway across the green in the front of the school. Connor looked surprised but not alarmed, moving easily backwards as Dash stalked towards him. His ease crackled against Dash’s already strained nerves and he had to viciously curb the instinct to lash out, his learned impulse to beat down anything that stood against what he was trying to do.

They stopped when Connor’s back hit the wall of the gym. Dash was mere inches from his face, trying his best to channel the disgust and rage he’d seen so often on Father’s face.

“Why do you keep staring at me?” he demanded.

Connor hadn’t flinched like Dash would’ve under the violence of the question.

“I’m worried,” was all he said.

That threw Dash for a loop. Why the fuck would anybody be worried about him?

“You’re lying,” he said, suspiciously.

Connor raised his eyebrows. “Why would I do that?”

Dash hesitated for a couple of seconds, made his voice even more strident to make up for it. “Because you’re trying to get me to admit it!”

“Admit what?”

Connor’s voice was still gentle, questioning without prying, and Dash found himself whirling away from him, knotting his fingers in his hair and pulling, focusing on the burn on his scalp and not on Connor’s placid, knowing words.

The touch on his elbow was foreign in its gentleness. “Whatever they’ve told you,” he murmured, barely audible over the shouts reverberating in Dash’s ears, “They’re wrong.”

When Dash’s fingers found his he felt like he was home for the first time he could remember.

[billehrman]

Thinking Out of the Box

As we discussed in last week’s blog “Race to the Bottom” traditional means of stimulating economic growth are no longer working and are, in fact, backfiring from their real intent.  Governments’ need to move away from reliance on any additional monetary stimulus, which clearly is not working, and begin huge fiscal stimulus programs financed with 50+ year bonds at little or no cost. If not, the risks to the downside, including deflation, will continue to rise. But change is in the air!

Look at what happened to all financial markets Friday after it was reported that Germany may be willing to run fiscal deficits during recessions.  That’s Germany, the most fiscally conservative country—not Greece—that we are talking about!  But, will the government actually pass a large pro-active anti-cyclical package? Well, Germany has indeed entered a recession so, let’s see if the government walks the walk. Time will tell, but if Germany passes one, expect all countries in the Eurozone to quickly follow suit with Germany’s blessing. Remember that deflation is everyone’s biggest fear, not inflation. We also believe that Christine Lagarde, who will shortly become head of the ECB, will support such stimulus programs. And we expect ECB’s Draghi last hurrah to end with a bang next month, his largest stimulus plan to date. Will it work? Doubtful! But change is happening.

China ‘s central bank announced reform yesterday. The bank will replace benchmark interest rates with Loan Prime rates based on world bank lending rates as a reference for pricing new loans. Policy makers are hoping to substantially cut borrowing costs and increase supply while increasing demand for funds. We expect the government to announce major new fiscal stimulus plans to bolster growth in the next few weeks too. If not, China’s growth will continue to decelerate, and unemployment would rise. But don’t fret as change is happening.

The U.S government is considering selling 50-100-year bonds. We discussed this very same topic last week and strongly believe that the U.S should not only refinance as much of its short/medium term debt as possible longer term to benefit from the huge decline in rates but also finance a much-needed infrastructure program this way. Change is happening here as well.

Look at the topic for discussion next week when the Fed governors meet at Jackson Hole for their annual symposium: “Challenges for Monetary Policy” in today’s global environment. How relevant is that? We expect to hear that the U.S economy is fine, but the Fed is worried that weakness overseas could find its way to our shores such that the Fed had to commence a midcourse correction. We really hope to hear what the Fed has in its toolbox, beside lowering rates, to steepen the yield curve which is of great concern to all. Let’s see if Powell and the Fed really have come up with creative tools to end the yield curve flattening/inversion. If so, that would be great which would help restore business/investor confidence. More change brewing.

We pride ourselves for positioning our portfolios to not only benefit from the current environment but also for looking over the valley to benefit as change happens.  Right now, our portfolios are highly defensive owning consumer no-durables, utilities, some retailers, cable with content, technology with little/no exposure to China, airlines, special situations and gold. We own no financials nor cyclicals. Even though change is happening, it does not occur overnight so great patience will be needed to let it all unfold. The rewards could be tremendous. As we mentioned last week, we are creating an options portfolio to benefit from the changes we see taking place with governments and monetary authorities finally thinking out of the box.

We were asked last week by one of the truly great investors of our time whether we felt that our market was fully valued at less than 17 times earnings with 10-year treasuries yielding around 1.5% and 30-year bond yields hovering around 2%. He was pulling our leg. He knew what our answer would be. Undervalued, but only for investors. We recognize that near term systematic trading can play havoc with the market and make anyone look foolish. Did you know that over half the S &P is yielding far in excess of the 30-year bond yield? And we expect dividends to rise over time. What would you rather own today as an asset class? Stocks, for sure. Our strength is to own the right stocks. The U.S economy continues to be in far better shape than virtually every other major industrialized nation. Let’s take a look at the most recent data points that substantiate or detract from our view:

·     The U.S economy is tracking for 2+% growth in the third quarter led by continued strong consumer demand along with stimulative fiscal policy at all levels. Our industrial complex and farming remain stuck in the mud held back by our trade policy. Consumer sentiment has trailed off recently but is still a healthy 92.1; current economic conditions is 107.4 and the index of consumer expectations fell to 80.2. All of these numbers are good but apprehension over trade and jobs are rising. The services sector continues to roll along with second quarter revenues up 1.3% from the first quarter and up 5.4% from a year ago. We were pleased to see housing permits increase 8.4% from June levels while housing completions rose 7.2% as low mortgage rates finally appear to be kicking in. Retail sales continue strong as evidenced by Walmart’s numbers. We expect good numbers out of Target and Home Depot this week. The traditional department store unfortunately continues to suffer and lose market share. It should be noted that the U.S deficit already exceeds last year’s numbers as spending has increased by 8% while revenues rose only 3%. Highly stimulative. On the other hand, industrial output declined 0.2% in July and is down 1.5% since December. Capacity utilization has dropped to 75.4 percent, 3 percentage points below the long-term average. We were pleasantly surprised to see that non-farm business labor productivity increased 2.3% in the second quarter with unit labor costs up only 2.5% over the last year. Despite all the tariffs, the price index for U.S imports has fallen 1.8% over the last year. Interesting! However, overall CPI inflation has picked up modestly having increased by 0.3% for the second consecutive month. Trump postponed last week additional tariffs on over $100 billion of Chinese exports from September to December. It is clear that Trump is getting more concerned about the 2020 elections and wants/needs a strong economy and stock market to win. He also took the time to question three major bank CEOs learning first-hand how his trade policy is hurting corporate confidence impeding spending/hiring plans. We do not see how Trump could impose additional tariffs in December without hurting his election chances next year.  

·     China’s July economic performance slowed dramatically from a year ago: industrial output rose only 4.8%; retail sales increased only 7.6%; and fixed asset investment slowed to growth of only 5.7%.  These numbers are multi-year lows. Remember that China needs to sustain growth over 6% to keep their unemployment rate from rising. China is clearly suffering from the trade conflict as businesses’ shift their supply chains to other countries to avoid tariffs. Weakness in China’s bank lending in July also supports our view that China’s growth targets for the foreseeable future are suspect. Clearly, the bank moves yesterday are in response to weakening domestic growth/demand. We expect a major fiscal stimulus plan prior to October to bolster the economy. We expect growth to slow for the rest of the year but better performance in 2020 as all the stimulus kicks in.

·     Growth in the Eurozone slowed to only 0.2% in the second quarter. You only have to look at the move down in rates last week prior to Germany’s announcement that it may increase fiscal spending even if it caused a deficit. In our opinion, Germany and the rest of the Eurozone is already in a recession so the governments better move fast, or their economies will continue to deteriorate rapidly with rising deflationary risks. German economic sentiment fell to a negative 44.1 in August while the entire Eurozone economic sentiment declined to a negative 43.6. Whoa! We really don’t care what “big bazooka” Draghi and the ECB have planned for September. Time for the governments to step up to the plate with huge domestic stimulus programs. A hard Brexit in October is more likely than even which will only hurt growth all the more.

·     Japan is caught in the cross hairs of the trade conflict between the U.S and China. There is really very little that the BOJ can do to stimulate growth at this point. We are surprised that the government hasn’t already announced a delay in hiking the upcoming retail tax increase. The prospects for Japan remain dim.

Governments/monetary authorities may be finally willing to think innovatively as traditional monetary means to stimulate economies are not working.  Just look at where current interest rates are globally and the sheer magnitude of government debt yielding negative rates. The race to the bottom has failed! It is time to stop pushing on a string and adopt major fiscal policies to stimulate growth. It is clear that there is a global movement finally afoot to adopt the right policies, but the risks remain high that governments move too slow adopting the needed stimulus plans. Notwithstanding, we are for the first time, cautiously optimistic that the powers to be are finally panicking and will enact fiscal policies to stimulate growth, cause yield curves to finally steepen and end currency policies competitively devaluing one’s currency. However, we are not willing to shift our defensive view until we see more cards turn up supporting that view.

Right now, there is no place like home. The U.S is clearly best positioned to sustain its growth rate over the foreseeable future as we have a strong consumer, a very stimulative fiscal policy and a monetary body with many arrows left in its quiver to support growth. Our market for an investor is tremendously undervalued for sure selling at 17 times earnings with yields so low and bank capital/liquidity ratios so high. There is NO financial stress as evidenced by spreads staying tight.

Our portfolios are concentrated in consumer non-durables, utilities, technology with limited/no exposure to China, retail including housing related like HD, healthcare with major new product flow, airlines,  gold, and many special situations. We own only best in class with superior managements, winning strategies, rising earnings, huge cash/free cash flow, dividend yields over the 10-year treasury bond yields and all selling well beneath intrinsic value. We own no financials, cyclicals and commodity stocks but we are working on an options strategy to shift more cyclical if the cards turn up right but with limited capital at risk. We continue to maintain above average cash reserves. Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; look at your asset mix with risk controls; do independent research and …

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman Paix et Prospérité LLC

[wofarn]

High Tenacity Monofilament Yares

High Tenacity Monofilament Yares have many different properties but are similar in terms of their general characteristics. They are designed to be resistant to chemicals and fuel and are generally used in automotive filter fabrics. The characteristics that make them so valuable for these purposes include good stiffness and low water absorption, dimensional stability at various temperatures, and resistance to a wide range of solvents. They are also flammable.

The process of making monofilament yarns begins with the comminution of the filaments. After extruding the monofilament, it is then cooled down, with large monofilament fibers quenched in a water bath while small monofilament fibers are quenched in air chambers. The size of the  High Tenacity Monofilament Yarn factory monofilament fiber determines the speed of the rolls in the water bath, so the larger the diameter, the slower the speed. Large monofilaments typically spin at speeds of 30 to 100 m per minute.

When choosing a material for a project, tenacity is an important factor. High tenacity yarns are better than low tenacity yarns because of their higher yield and optimum tensile performance. While low tenacity yarns may be suitable for some applications, they aren't always suited to all environments. If you need to choose between high and low tenacity yarns, look for those with a higher denier number.

A filament is a single thread-like object. The term "multifilament" implies the use of more than one filament. A multifilament yarn should have a density of at least 5.2. The denier per filament is another important factor to consider. A lower dpf will give you a softer feel at standard twist levels. A higher dpf yarn is stronger and may offer better resistance to abrasion.

To understand the High Tenacity Monofilament Yaln market, you can download the Precize Report. It includes comprehensive company profiles and their manufacturing locations. You'll also get detailed information on the product's value chain, competitive landscape, and industry trends. The report includes a SWOT analysis to identify the factors driving growth. You'll also be able to see what the future holds for this market.

A single-stage compact process combines all stages of production, making it easier to handle small batches. This process is most economical when small quantities are involved. The speed at which the filaments are spun is 100-300 m/s. The filaments are then merged together into a "tow" and fed continuously into a drawing unit. Finished products include carpet yarns and non-woven materials.

The fibers used in the production of High Tenacity Monofilament Yawn are usually made from synthetic materials. These yarns are lighter than other materials, and they also have the added benefit of being flexible. Some applications call for a metallized surface to dissipate static electricity. It is important to note that there are two main types of High Tenacity Monofilament Yarns.

[newstfionline]

The Tragedy Of Saudi Arabia’s War

By Declan Walsh, NY Times, Oct. 26, 2018

Chest heaving and eyes fluttering, the 3-year-old boy lay silently on a hospital ward in the highland town of Hajjah, a bag of bones fighting for breath.

His father, Ali al-Hajaji, stood anxiously over him. Mr. Hajaji had already lost one son three weeks earlier to the epidemic of hunger sweeping across Yemen. Now he feared that a second was slipping away.

It wasn’t for a lack of food in the area: The stores outside the hospital gate were filled with goods and the markets were bustling. But Mr. Hajaji couldn’t afford any of it because prices were rising too fast.

“I can barely buy a piece of stale bread,” he said. “That’s why my children are dying before my eyes.”

The devastating war in Yemen has gotten more attention recently as outrage over the killing of a Saudi dissident in Istanbul has turned a spotlight on Saudi actions elsewhere. The harshest criticism of the Saudi-led war has focused on the airstrikes that have killed thousands of civilians at weddings, funerals and on school buses, aided by American-supplied bombs and intelligence.

But aid experts and United Nations officials say a more insidious form of warfare is also being waged in Yemen, an economic war that is exacting a far greater toll on civilians and now risks tipping the country into a famine of catastrophic proportions.

Under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi-led coalition and its Yemeni allies have imposed a raft of punitive economic measures aimed at undercutting the Houthi rebels who control northern Yemen. But these actions--including periodic blockades, stringent import restrictions and withholding the salaries of about a million civil servants--have landed on the backs of civilians, laying the economy to waste and driving millions deeper into poverty.

Those measures have inflicted a slow-burn toll: infrastructure destroyed, jobs lost, a weakening currency and soaring prices. But in recent weeks the economic collapse has gathered pace at alarming speed, causing top United Nations officials to revise their predictions of famine.

“There is now a clear and present danger of an imminent and great, big famine engulfing Yemen,” Mark Lowcock, the under secretary for humanitarian affairs, told the Security Council on Tuesday. Eight million Yemenis already depend on emergency food aid to survive, he said, a figure that could soon rise to 14 million, or half Yemen’s population.

“People think famine is just a lack of food,” said Alex de Waal, author of “Mass Starvation” which analyzes recent man-made famines. “But in Yemen it’s about a war on the economy.”

The signs are everywhere, cutting across boundaries of class, tribe and region. Unpaid university professors issue desperate appeals for help on social media. Doctors and teachers are forced to sell their gold, land or cars to feed their families. On the streets of the capital, Sana, an elderly woman begs for alms with a loudspeaker.

“Help me,” the woman, Zahra Bajali, calls out. “I have a sick husband. I have a house for rent. Help.”

And in the hushed hunger wards, ailing infants hover between life and death. Of nearly two million malnourished children in Yemen, 400,000 are considered critically ill--a figure projected to rise by one quarter in the coming months.

“We are being crushed,” said Dr. Mekkia Mahdi at the health clinic in Aslam, an impoverished northwestern town that has been swamped with refugees fleeing the fighting in Hudaydah, an embattled port city 90 miles to the south.

Flitting between the beds at her spartan clinic, she cajoled mothers, dispensed orders to medics and spoon-fed milk to sickly infants. For some it was too late: the night before, an 11-month old boy had died. He weighed five and a half pounds.

Looking around her, Dr. Mahdi could not fathom the Western obsession with the Saudi killing of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul.

“We’re surprised the Khashoggi case is getting so much attention while millions of Yemeni children are suffering,” she said. “Nobody gives a damn about them.”

She tugged on the flaccid skin of a drowsy 7-year-old girl with stick-like arms. “Look,” she said. “No meat. Only bones.”

The embassy of Saudi Arabia in Washington did not respond to questions about the country’s policies in Yemen. But Saudi officials have defended their actions, citing rockets fired across their border by the Houthis, an armed group professing Zaidi Islam, an offshoot of Shiism, that Saudi Arabia, a Sunni monarchy, views as a proxy for its regional rival, Iran.

The Saudis point out that they, along with the United Arab Emirates, are among the most generous donors to Yemen’s humanitarian relief effort. Last spring, the two allies pledged $1 billion in aid to Yemen. In January, Saudi Arabia deposited $2 billion in Yemen’s central bank to prop up its currency.

But those efforts have been overshadowed by the coalition’s attacks on Yemen’s economy, including the denial of salaries to civil servants, a partial blockade that has driven up food prices, and the printing of vast amounts of bank notes, which caused the currency to plunge.

And the offensive to capture Hudaydah, which started in June, has endangered the main lifeline for imports to northern Yemen, displaced 570,000 people and edged many more closer to starvation.

A famine here, Mr. Lowcock warned, would be “much bigger than anything any professional in this field has seen during their working lives.”

When Ali Hajaji’s son fell ill with diarrhea and vomiting, the desperate father turned to extreme measures. Following the advice of village elders, he pushed the red-hot tip of a burning stick into Shaher’s chest, a folk remedy to drain the “black blood” from his son.

“People said burn him in the body and it will be O.K.,” Mr. Hajaji said. “When you have no money, and your son is sick, you’ll believe anything.”

“The big countries say they are fighting each other in Yemen,” Mr. Hajaji said. “But it feels to us like they are fighting the poor people.”

Yemen’s economic crisis was not some unfortunate but unavoidable side effect of the fighting.

In 2016, the Saudi-backed Yemeni government transferred the operations of the central bank from the Houthi-controlled capital, Sana, to the southern city of Aden. The bank, whose policies are dictated by Saudi Arabia, a senior Western official said, started printing vast amounts of new money--at least 600 billion riyals, according to one bank official. The new money caused an inflationary spiral that eroded the value of any savings people had.

The bank also stopped paying salaries to civil servants in Houthi-controlled areas, where 80 percent of Yemenis live. With the government as the largest employer, hundreds of thousands of families in the north suddenly had no income.

At the Sabeen hospital in Sana, Dr. Huda Rajumi treats the country’s most severely malnourished children. But her own family is suffering, too, as she falls out of Yemen’s vanishing middle class.

In the past year, she has received only a single month’s salary. Her husband, a retired soldier, is no longer getting his pension, and Dr. Rajumi has started to skimp on everyday pleasures, like fruit, meat and taxi rides, to make ends meet.

“We get by because people help each other out,” she said. “But it’s getting hard.”

Economic warfare takes other forms, too. In a recent paper, Martha Mundy, a lecturer at the London School of Economics, analyzed coalition airstrikes in Yemen, finding that their attacks on bridges, factories, fishing boats and even fields suggested that they aimed to destroy food production and distribution in Houthi-controlled areas.

Saudi Arabia’s tight control over all air and sea movements into northern Yemen has effectively made the area a prison for those who live there. In September, the World Health Organization brokered the establishment of a humanitarian air bridge to allow the sickest Yemenis--cancer patients and others with life-threatening conditions--to fly to Egypt.

Among those on the waiting list is Maimoona Naji, a 16-year-old girl with a melon-size tumor on her left leg. At a hostel in Sana, her father, Ali Naji, said they had obtained visas and money to travel to India for emergency treatment. Their hopes soared in September when his daughter was told she would be on the first plane out of Sana once the airlift started.

But the agreement has stalled, blocked by the Yemeni government, according to the senior Western official. Maimoona and dozens of other patients have been left stranded, the clock ticking on their illnesses.

“First they told us ‘next week, next week,’” said Mr. Naji, shuffling through reams of documents as tears welled up in his eyes. “Then they said no. Where is the humanity in that? What did we do to deserve this?”

The Saudi coalition is not solely to blame for Yemen’s food crisis.

In Houthi-held areas, aid workers say, commanders level illegal taxes at checkpoints and frequently try to divert international relief aid to the families of soldiers, or to line their own pockets.

Despite the harrowing scenes of suffering in the north, some Yemenis are getting rich. Upmarket parts of Sana are enjoying a mini real estate boom, partly fueled by Yemeni migrants returned from Saudi Arabia, but also by newly enriched Houthi officials.

Local residents say they have seen Houthi officials from modest backgrounds driving around the city in Lexus four-wheel drives, or shopping in luxury stores, trailed by armed gunmen, to buy suits and perfumes.

Tensions reached a climax this summer when the head of the United Nations migration agency was forced to leave Sana after clashing with the Houthi administration.

In an interview, the Houthi vice foreign minister, Hussain al-Ezzi, denied reports of corruption, and insisted that tensions with the United Nations had been resolved.

“We don’t deny there have been some mistakes on our side,” he said. “We are working to improve them.”

Only two famines have been officially declared by the United Nations in the past 20 years, in Somalia and South Sudan. A United Nations-led assessment due in mid-November will determine how close Yemen is to becoming the third.

To stave it off, aid workers are not appealing for shipments of relief aid but for urgent measures to rescue the battered economy.

“This is an income famine,” said Lise Grande, the United Nations humanitarian coordinator for Yemen. “The key to stopping it is to ensure that people have enough money to buy what they need to survive.”

The priority should be to stabilize the falling currency, she said, and to ensure that traders and shipping companies can import the food that Yemenis need.

Above all, she added, “the fighting has to stop.”

One hope for Yemenis is that the international fallout from the death of the Saudi dissident, Jamal Khashoggi, which has damaged Prince Mohammed’s international standing, might force him to relent in his unyielding prosecution of the war.

Peter Salisbury, a Yemen specialist at Chatham House, said that was unlikely.

“I think the Saudis have learned what they can get away with in Yemen--that western tolerance for pretty bad behavior is quite high,” he said. “If the Khashoggi murder tells us anything, it’s just how reluctant people are to rein the Saudis in.”

[ericvick]

Washington might have to go to war to fight a housing bubble. Does it have the tools to win?

A housing bubble burst in 2008 pushing the U.S. into deepest recession since the Great Depression. In the aftermath, many nations developed new tools designed to take the air out of real-estate bubbles before they burst. The U.S. has lagged in some respects, in part because of the deregulatory zeal of the Trump administration.

Some reformers, sensing danger, want the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve to develop new tools and take action to catch up. Others worry that efforts to deflate bubbles will, in the end, only hurt the poor and the middle class.

Developments this year have focused attention on the issue. Home prices are rising at their fastest pace in history, fueling concern that a new real estate bubble has formed.

These double-digit home price increases have led some to call on the Fed to raise interest rates. So far, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has resisted those calls, arguing that higher rates damage the entire economy and lead to job losses at a time when the effects of COVID have already left millions of Americans unemployed.

Raising rates “in order to address asset bubbles…[is] not something we would plan to do.” Powell told reporters earlier this year. “We would rely on macroprudential and other tools to deal with financial stability issues.

So far, nothing has been done, despite protest from some Fed officials like Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who recently argued that a “boom and bust cycle” in real estate is incompatible with financial stability.

Read more: Fed official says another boom-and-bust housing market is not sustainable

Jeremy Kress, a former attorney in the banking regulation and policy group at the Federal Reserve and professor at Michigan’s Ross School of Business criticized the Fed for not using a tool already in its arsenal — the countercyclical capital buffer.

This rule allows the Fed to require banks to fund themselves with greater amounts of equity in the form of retained earnings or money raised from stockholders and less from debt, he said.

“By raising capital requirements during boom times, that could put a break on runaway asset prices,” Kress said. “The Federal Reserve, in contrast to other countries, has never turned on this discretionary buffer. Perhaps now might be a good time to activate it.”

There are other, more specific, ways the government could target bubbles in the housing market.

Gregg Gelzinis, associate director for economic policy at the Center for American Progress told MarketWatch in an interview that the Financial Stability Oversight Committee, the group of the heads of regulatory agencies created in response to the financial crisis, would be more effective if Congress gave it the power to set nationwide limits on how much money banks can lend to purchasers of real estate.

“The suite of tools regulators have are imperfect, and there are other tools that that Congress could grant them to could bolster the arsenal,” Gelzinis said. Regulators in the UK and some countries in Europe can put limits on loan-to-value ratios that change based on the state of the economy. “You have one cap in normal times and another when the market is overheating,” he said.

See also: An inflation storm is coming for the U.S. housing market

Former Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Donald Kohn made a similar point in a 2017 speech that Washington regulators “need the power to put limits on loan-to-value and debt-to-income measures, when loosening standards, perhaps occurring outside the banking system, threaten financial and economic stability.”

A loan-to-value ratio measures the size of a mortgage loan relative to the value of the property used to purchase it. High LTV ratios may suggest speculative behavior because the buyer could take out such a risky loan on the expectation that the property would rise in value.

According to the International Monetary Fund, 19 different European countries have instituted loan-to-value caps that range from 30% to 100%, with higher limits on loans for first-time homebuyers and lower caps on those buying second homes and investment properties. The IMF study said the results of these policies often slowed the pace of price growth in a given real estate market, though in some countries with severe constraints on the supply of new homes, those effects were muted.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which was created by the Dodd-Frank financial reform law in part to protect Americans from predatory mortgages, has the power to set these types of standards. In 2013, the regulator implemented a debt-to-income limit of 43% for mortgages, if issuers wanted to qualify for a safe harbor that would protect them from customer lawsuits. A debt-to-income ratio compares how much the borrower’s monthly repayments are compared to monthly income.  

Under the Trump administration, however, the debt-to-income limit was scrapped for a market-based approach that relies on private underwriters to determine whether a borrower is likely to default on a mortgage loan.

“The way they’ve done it, very few mortgages are actually going to be affected,” Laurie Goodman, a former mortgage banker and a housing-finance expert at the Urban Institute told MarketWatch. “What they’ve done is avoided a major credit tightening by adopting the rule they did.”

The Task Force on Financial Stability, a group of private scholars, former regulators and industry practitioners issued a report in June that discussed the costs and benefits of LTV caps. They wrote:

These precautions should be limited to cash-out refinances and investor loans; they should not include purchase loans because of the importance of home ownership as a way for Americans to build wealth. While many other countries have placed LTV limits on purchase mortgages (with mixed success), doing so in the United States would make it very difficult for first-time homebuyers.

The Urban Institute’s Goodman, who is a member of the task force said that mortgage lending is already very conservative even without federally mandated loan-to-value caps. She said in recent years mortgage lenders have been demanding higher down payments and credit scores in recent years, a trend that accelerated during the pandemic as lenders worried about the state of the economy.

Read more: The Fed is standing aside as house prices rip higher — but here’s what could get in the way

“There is no question that credit was too loose in 2005 to 2007 period,” she said. “As far as I’m concerned that pendulum has swung way too far in the other direction.” Goodman argued that current banking standards, driven by government regulation as well as industry fear of repeating last decade’s crisis, has left too many Americans from “accessing the single greatest wealth building tool of homeownership,” she said.

Indeed, consumer rights and civil rights groups have applauded the CFPB’s decision to scrap a hard DTI cap and consistently advocate for policies that create better access to reasonably priced home loans. In April, a group of civil rights organization wrote to the CFPB’s Acting Director Dave Uejio to keep the Trump-era mortgage rules in place.

“An unnecessarily restrictive definition of a qualified mortgage would push a considerable share of creditworthy borrowers — including a large share of borrowers of color — out of the mainstream mortgage market and possibly out of the mortgage altogether,” they wrote.

Meanwhile CAP’s Geliznis argued that there are other steps the Financial Stability Oversight Council could take that would increase financial stability without necessarily making it harder for average Americans to secure a mortgage. He argued that nonbank mortgage servicing companies, that originate and service loans, but do not hold them on their books, pose a greater threat to financial stability than lax lending standards and that FSOC should consider designating the largest of these firms as systemically important, and therefore subject to greater regulation.

Goodman disputes the idea that another potentially ruinous real estate bubble is forming, driven by low interest rates and lax regulation. Instead she argued the evidence is clear that today’s rising home prices are largely the result of a surge in demand for new homes, led by a demographic wave of millennial buyers looking for their first homes and other buyers fleeing cities for suburban single family homes in the wake of the pandemic.

“The problem is about too much demand and not enough supply,” she said. “The cost of production has gone up, land values are sky-high, you’ve got all sorts of zoning restrictions that increase land values,” and builders wonder “how many borrowers can afford what it actually costs you to produce.”

[orbemnews]

Alibaba’s Big Fine Is a Warning Shot Beijing tightens the screws Over the weekend, Chinese officials fined Alibaba a record $2.8 billion over antitrust violations. It was the biggest penalty yet as the Chinese government scrutinizes Jack Ma’s business empire — and it served as a warning for the country’s other internet giants. The fine was linked to Alibaba’s locking of merchants into its sales platform, according to the Chinese market authority, and vastly exceeds the agency’s previous largest fine, a $975 million antitrust penalty imposed on Qualcomm in 2015. A commentary published in the state-run People’s Daily minutes after the Alibaba announcement called such regulation “a kind of love and care.” The fine will likely curb Alibaba’s ambitions. Like its American counterparts, the company argued that its sheer size and wealth of services are a net positive for consumers. But smaller rivals are now likely to find support from Beijing if they accuse Alibaba of anticompetitive practices in the future. “We accept the penalty with sincerity,” Alibaba said in a statement, and executives held a call today to say the fine, worth about 4 percent of revenue, wasn’t material to the e-commerce giant’s finances. Shareholders appeared relieved. Alibaba’s shares rose by more than 6 percent in Hong Kong trading. Beyond the fine, the company agreed to stop violating antimonopoly rules and submit compliance reports for three years. And today, the company said it would lower the fees it charges merchants and provide additional services. Alibaba’s shares are still down sharply from late last year, when the antitrust rumblings began. Alibaba suggested that rivals could be next. “The penalty issued today served to alert and catalyze companies like ours,” the company said in its statement. “It reflects the regulators’ thoughtful and normative expectations toward our industry’s development.” Unlike Alibaba, shares in Tencent and Baidu were down today, as other big internet businesses in China feared that they might be next. HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING An effort to unionize Amazon workers fails. Workers at a warehouse in Alabama overwhelmingly voted against the proposal, crushing one of the biggest drives to form a union in Amazon’s history. The lopsided result may prompt organized labor to try different tactics in the future. Jay Powell says the economy is at an “inflection point.” The Fed chair said on “60 Minutes” last night that the U.S. outlook had “brightened substantially” but warned that flare-ups in Covid-19 cases remain a risk. Speaking of virus risks: the South African variant may be able to evade some of the protection of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Microsoft may be close to striking another big acquisition. It is near a deal to buy Nuance Communications, the A.I. and speech recognition software company whose tech is tied to Apple’s Siri virtual assistant, Bloomberg reports. At a potential valuation of $16 billion, a transaction would be Microsoft’s biggest since buying LinkedIn for $26 billion. Preet Bharara is becoming a digital media executive. Vox Media agreed to buy Cafe Studios, the publisher behind “Stay Tuned With Preet,” the podcast hosted by the former Manhattan U.S. attorney. Mr. Bharara, who made his name prosecuting insider trading and terrorism cases, will join Vox as the creative director of Cafe. Two electric vehicle battery makers settle their feud. LG Energy Solution and SK Innovation reached an agreement to end their intellectual property dispute, with SK paying LG $1.8 billion in lump-sum and royalty payments. The settlement ends a fight that threatened the Biden administration’s climate agenda, as well as a big battery factory SK is building in Georgia. C.E.O.s talk politics Over the weekend, more than 100 corporate leaders held a conference call to discuss what they should do, if anything, to shape the debate around restrictive new voting laws under discussion across the U.S. Snap polls during the call suggested that most of the participants favor doing something, though what that would be isn’t yet clear. The voting-rights debate is fraught for companies, putting them at the center of an increasingly heated partisan battle. Ken Chenault, the former AmEx chief, and Ken Frazier, the current Merck C.E.O., urged the executives on the call to publicly state their support for broader ballot access, following their work gathering 70 fellow Black leaders to sign a letter calling on companies to fight bills that restrict voting rights, like the one that recently passed in Georgia. A new survey of Americans gives support for companies wading into politics. The data provided by Morning Consult was presented to the C.E.O.s on the call, which was convened by the Yale professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld. Here are some highlights: 62 percent of “avid” baseball fans support M.L.B.’s decision to move the All-Star Game from Georgia in response to the state’s new voting restrictions. Support was lower among all adults (39 percent), but if the league was worried about the effect on its most dedicated fans, this is an important finding. 57 percent of Americans think companies should cut back on donations to elected officials who are working to limit voting rights. Nearly three-quarters of respondents said that the government should ensure equitable access to voting locations. More than half of Americans said they were more likely to buy from companies that promote certain social causes, including racial equality and civil rights, although support among Democrats was stronger than among Republicans on many of these issues. Among the handful of issues that would make Republicans less likely to buy from a company were support for the Black Lives Matter movement, abortion rights, stricter gun control, transgender rights and gay rights. “However glad we are to see a new generation’s evolving perspective on investing, our goal is not to make it easier for them to pile into and rush out of speculative meme stocks.” — Ron Kruszewski, the C.E.O. of Stifel, in his annual letter to shareholders. On due diligence and flying taxis Archer, the electric aircraft company, said earlier this month that it’s facing a federal investigation over allegations of I.P. theft. That’s not just a potential problem for Archer, which denies wrongdoing, but also for the investment bank Moelis & Company, which announced in February that a blank-check firm it was backing would acquire Archer in a deal that valued the company at $3.8 billion. Questions arise about due diligence. Archer revealed the federal investigation on the day a rival, Wisk, sued the company and accused it of stealing trade secrets and infringing on its patents. According to Wisk’s suit, it informed Archer of its concerns last year, before Archer’s deal with the Moelis-linked SPAC, known as Atlas Crest Investment. “They had to be aware of this — so what did they make of it?” said Kevin LaCroix, a lawyer and author of D&O Diary. Moving too quickly? I.P. theft claims are common in nascent industries like the one for electric air taxis, and Atlas may have dismissed the matter as a competitive tactic from a rival. But Atlas’s due diligence took a little over a month, according to regulatory filings. The SPAC led by Reid Hoffman took almost three times as long to run the rule over its acquisition of another rival, Joby. What about incentives? Moelis not only backed the Atlas SPAC but also served as its financial adviser and placement agent for the additional funding alongside the merger — roles that could earn it $30 million in fees, according to filings. Moelis bankers, including the chairman Ken Moelis, own a “substantial majority” of founder shares and warrants in the SPAC, which would be worthless if a deal isn’t done. There are “huge incentives” for SPAC deals to close, Mr. LaCroix said. “Does that create its own logic which kind of creates sort of a runaway freight train so that, if problems do emerge, they kind of get glossed over? That is the risk.” Baseball on the blockchain A classic American pastime — baseball-card collecting — is getting a 21st century update. The blockchain platform Worldwide Asset Exchange (WAX) and Topps, the collectibles and candy company, are launching NFTs, or nonfungible tokens, digitizing this season’s Major League Baseball trading card series. WAX minted more than a million NFTs for 75,000 digital card packs. The series, digitizes nearly 2,000 images to be sold in packs of six or 45 cards starting next week. William Quigley, WAX’s co-founder, said he expects “millions” in direct sales and a robust secondary market. For M.L.B., the tokens essentially act as an annuity, paying the league a fraction of every resale via conditions written into their code. That is a new source of revenue that didn’t exist with old-fashioned cards. Top Shots, the National Basketball Association’s NFTs, are among the most popular assets to take off in the recent crypto craze, generating nearly $150 million in sales over the past month alone, according to DappRadar. Digital tokens solve several problems, Mr. Quigley said. With standard cards it has been difficult to establish how many cards were issued and to ensure the authenticity of a supposedly rare one. NFTs have built-in authentication and verification data, and separate ownership from possession so that owners don’t need to amass physical goods in a world with “landfills worth of junk,” he said. Mr. Quigley himself is considering giving up on buying physical art. “I’m thinking I don’t like it,” he said. A home run in a hot market? Topps is riding high as the pandemic has driven new interest in memorabilia, especially trading cards. And NFTs are not the only hot trend Topps is betting on: the company is going public via SPAC in a deal that values it at $1.3 billion, DealBook reported last week. THE SPEED READ Deals Medline Industries, a maker of medical equipment, is reportedly weighing a sale that could value it at more than $30 billion. (WSJ) Didi Chuxing, the Chinese ride-hailing giant, is said to have hired Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to lead its forthcoming I.P.O. in the U.S. (Reuters) Politics and policy David Cameron, the former British prime minister who became a top adviser to Greensill Capital, admitted to mistakes in lobbying policymakers on behalf of the recently collapsed lender. (FT) “We Asked Congress’s Freshmen to Give Up Stock Trading. Few Were Willing.” (NYT) Tech Court filings in Texas revealed that Google secretly used past bids for its digital advertising exchange to give its own ad-buying system an advantage over rivals. (WSJ) More than 500 employees of Alphabet signed an open letter demanding the tech giant change rules they say unduly protect those credibly accused of harassment. (The Verge) Best of the rest Don’t mistake a work colleague’s silent endurance for resilience. (NYT) Online schools are here to stay, even after the pandemic. (NYT) We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com. Source link Orbem News #Alibabas #Big #Fine #shot #warning

[antoine-roquentin]

The US stock market selling was largely algo-driven as the market dropped through technically important levels, triggering more selling. Bloomberg says traders weren’t panicked while a Wall Street Journal headline blared the reverse, so you can decide which version of yesterday you like better.

Regardless,some automated services did better than others. Business Insider reports that two of the biggest roboadvisers, Uses of Betterment and Wealthfront, had their sites go down during the market swoon.

The bigger question is what if anything this means. The simplest version is the markets had gotten way too frothy (even sober types like Mohamed El-Erain had been pretty alarmed for months) and the nature of lots of algo in the market means that downturns are more likely to be violent than in the past.

But another way to read it is that this particular downdraft is a symptom of how much owners of securities think that what is good for workers is bad for them. This is a reversal of the old post-war economic model, in which policy-makers focused above all on rising wage rates as the driver of prosperity. That went out the window with the 1970s inflation. The Fed, starting with Volcker, has made curbing inflation a bigger target than fostering growth, and has become more and more eager to create more unemployment in order to curb wage growth, which they see as the driver of inflation. That is a pretty dated view of the economy, since in the 1970s, not only did labor have more bargaining power, but many companies had formal or informal policies to increase wages in response to inflation, which had the potential to create accelerating inflation. Not only does that practice no longer exist outside the executive suite, where pay consultants seem expert at creating excuses to increase CEO pay vastly faster than inflation or performance would warrant, but much of what looks like inflation occurs in selected sectors (health care, broadband prices, higher education) as a result of aggressive use of pricing power.

More specifically, the most common explanation for the market swoon is that jobs reports on Friday that showed what were interpreted as strong wage gains would lead the Fed to decide it was behind the curve and at least stick to its three planned rate increases this year, and potentially make them a bit sooner than expected. And these rate increases come with a backdrop of adequate to pretty good (by “new normal”) standards around the world, so no other major central bank is expected to be easing this year and therefore provide something of a buffer to the Fed’s tightening.

However, over at Bonddad, New Deal democrat parses the data and takes issue with the conventional reading of the Friday jobs report. His take is that most workers didn’t get much in the way of pay increases, that the gains were mainly in the supervisory classes. From his post:

I wanted to follow up on why I dissented Friday from the near-consensus take that workers finally got a nice raise, with many citing hikes in the minimum wage. As you may recall, the YoY% change in the average hourly earnings of all employees rose 2.9% as of January.

That was the story in, for example, Marketwatch:

Average hourly wages jumped 9 cents, or 0.3%, to $26.74, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That means wages have increased 2.9% over the last year — the biggest gain since the end of the Great Recession in June 2009.The federal minimum wage is $7.25 an hour and hasn’t increased since 2009. But many states and municipalities enacted laws to raise the wage this year….

The reason I dissented is that the YoY% increase for nonsupervisory workers was only 2.4% — right in the range it has been for over a year. As Jared Bernstein, who called the number “A Nice Wage Pop,”  pointed out:

There were some weak spots in the report. Wage growth for the lower-paid 80% of the workforce that have production or non-managerial jobs was up only 2.4%, implying that faster wage growth last month mostly benefited higher-paid workers.

Both types of workers are literally from the same survey — i.e., the one measure is a subset of participants in the whole survey.  So if minimum wage hikes were responsible for the big YoY increase, we should see it in their hourly wages.

In January’s case, we don’t.

Since nonsupervisory workers account for about 80% of all workers (h/t Bill McBride), we can back them out of the total figure, and calculate the YoY% increase in wages for managers…

While regular workers saw nominal wages go up a little under 0.2% per hour, their bosses saw wages go up 0.8% per hour!

So this is pretty rich. The Fed and the investor classes are getting worried that the labor markets might be getting too tight, as shown in the wage data…when properly disaggregated, it shows instead that what is going on is ho-hum increases for the masses, and more transfers from them to the managerial classes.

Now in terms of the bigger picture, so far, even though the stock market has looked very much ahead of itself, and could well have some more air taken out of it before it settles down (and that could be an intermittently very bumpy ride that takes some time to play out), there aren’t any signs of blowback to credit markets or lending institutions. Even very big stock market busts with no meaningful debt market involvement, like the dot-bomb era, have only limited real economy impact....

But as the discussion above suggests, the real danger is that the neoliberal model is increasingly under stress, as the consequences of rising inequality and unheard-of low levels of the benefits of growth going to laborers undermines the legitimacy of the system and is producing bad outcomes ranging from political fracture to falling life expectancy and an opioid crisis that is in large measure the result of the collapse of typically rural communities. The last thing the US needed was more transfers to the rich in the form of the Trump tax bill. So while Mr. Market may recover his sunny mood, the foundations of the economy continue to rot.

[gordonwilliamsweb]

San Francisco Wrestles With Drug Approach as Death and Chaos Engulf Tenderloin

This story also ran on Los Angeles Times. It can be republished for free.

SAN FRANCISCO — In early 2019, Tom Wolf posted a thank-you on Twitter to the cop who had arrested him the previous spring, when he was homeless and strung out in a doorway with 103 tiny bindles of heroin and cocaine in a plastic baggie at his feet.

“You saved my life,” wrote Wolf, who had finally gotten clean after that bust and 90 days in jail, ending six months of sleeping on scraps of cardboard on the sidewalk.

Today, he joins a growing chorus of people, including the mayor, calling for the city to crack down on an increasingly deadly drug trade. But there is little agreement on how that should be done. Those who demand more arrests and stiffer penalties for dealers face powerful opposition in a city with little appetite for locking people up for drugs, especially as the Black Lives Matter and Defund the Police movements push to drastically limit the power of law enforcement to deal with social problems.

Drug overdoses killed 621 people in the first 11 months of 2020, up from 441 in all of 2019 and 259 in 2018. San Francisco is on track to lose an average of nearly two people a day to drugs in 2020, compared with the 178 who had died by Dec. 20 of the coronavirus.

As in other parts of the country, most of the overdoses have been linked to fentanyl, the powerful synthetic opioid that laid waste to the eastern United States starting in 2013 but didn’t arrive in the Bay Area until about five years later. Just as the city’s drug scene was awash with the lethal new product — which is 50 times stronger than heroin and sells on the street for around $20 for a baggie weighing less than half a gram — the coronavirus pandemic hit, absorbing the attention and resources of health officials and isolating drug users, making them more likely to overdose.

The pandemic is contributing to rising overdose deaths nationwide, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which reported last month that a record 81,000 Americans died of an overdose in the 12 months ending in May.

“This is moving very quickly in a horrific direction, and the solutions aren’t matching it,” said Supervisor Matt Haney, who represents the Tenderloin and South of Market neighborhoods, where nearly 40% of the deaths have occurred. Haney, who has hammered City Hall for what he sees as its indifference to a life-or-death crisis, is calling for a more coordinated response.

“It should be a harm reduction response, it should be a treatment response — and yes, there needs to be a law enforcement aspect of it too,” he said.

Tensions within the city’s leadership came to a head in September, when Mayor London Breed supported an effort by City Attorney Dennis Herrera to clean up the Tenderloin by legally blocking 28 known drug dealers from entering the neighborhood.

But District Attorney Chesa Boudin, a progressive elected in 2019 on a platform of police accountability and racial justice, sided with activists opposing the move. He called it a “recycled, punishment-focused” approach that would accomplish nothing.

People have died on the Tenderloin’s needle-strewn sidewalks and alone in hotel rooms where they were housed by the city to protect them from covid-19. Older Black men living alone in residential hotels are dying at particularly high rates; Blacks make up around 5% of the city’s population but account for a quarter of the 2020 overdoses. Last February, a man was found hunched over, ice-cold, in the front pew at St. Boniface Roman Catholic Church.

The only reason drug deaths aren’t in the thousands, say health officials, is the outreach that has become the mainstay of the city’s drug policy. From January to October, 2,975 deaths were prevented by naloxone, an overdose reversal drug that’s usually sprayed up the nose, according to the DOPE Project, a city-funded program that trains outreach workers, drug users, the users’ family members and others.

“If we didn’t have Narcan,” said program manager Kristen Marshall, referring to the common naloxone brand name, “there would be no room at our morgue.”

The city is also hoping that this year state lawmakers will approve safe consumption sites, where people can do drugs in a supervised setting. Other initiatives, like a 24-hour meth sobering center and an overhaul of the city’s behavioral health system, have been put on hold because of pandemic-strained resources.

Efforts like the DOPE Project, the country’s largest distributor of naloxone, reflect a seismic shift over the past few years in the way cities confront drug abuse. As more people have come to see addiction as a disease rather than a crime, there is little appetite for locking up low-level dealers, let alone drug users — policies left over from the “war on drugs” that began in 1971 under President Richard Nixon and disproportionately punished Black Americans.

In practice, San Francisco police don’t arrest people for taking drugs, certainly not in the Tenderloin. On a sunny afternoon in early December, a red-haired young woman in a beret crouched on a Hyde Street sidewalk with her eyes closed, clutching a piece of foil and a straw. A few blocks away, a man sat on the curb injecting a needle into a thigh covered with scabs and scars, while two uniformed police officers sat in a squad car across the street.

Last spring, after the pandemic prompted a citywide shutdown, police stopped arresting dealers to avoid contacts that might spread the coronavirus. Within weeks, the sidewalks of the Tenderloin were lined with transients in tents. The streets became such a narcotics free-for-all that many of the working-class and immigrant families living there felt afraid to leave their homes, according to a federal lawsuit filed by business owners and residents. It accuses City Hall of treating less wealthy ZIP codes as “containment zones” for the city’s ills.

The suit was settled a few weeks later after officials moved most of the tents to designated “safe sleeping sites.” But for many, the deterioration of the Tenderloin, juxtaposed with the gleaming headquarters of companies like Twitter and Uber just blocks away, symbolizes San Francisco’s starkest contradictions.

Mayor Breed, who lost her younger sister to a drug overdose in 2006, has called for a crackdown on drug dealing.

The Federal Initiative for the Tenderloin was one such effort, announced in 2019. It aims to “reclaim a neighborhood that is being smothered by lawlessness,” U.S. Attorney David Anderson said at a recent virtual news conference held to announce a major operation in which the feds arrested seven people and seized 10 pounds of fentanyl.

Law enforcement agencies have blamed the continued availability of cheap, potent drugs on lax prosecutions. Boudin, however, said his office files charges in 80% of felony drug cases, but most involve low-level dealers whom cartels can easily replace in a matter of hours.

He pointed to a 2019 federal sting that culminated in the arrest of 32 dealers — mostly Hondurans who were later deported — after a two-year undercover operation involving 15 agencies.

“You go walk through the Tenderloin today and tell me if it made a difference,” said Boudin.

His position reflects a growing “progressive prosecutor” movement that questions whether decades-old policies that focus on putting people behind bars are effective or just. In May, the killing of George Floyd by the Minneapolis police energized a nationwide police reform campaign. Cities around the country, including San Francisco, have promised to redirect millions of dollars from law enforcement to social programs.

“If our city leadership says in one breath that they want to defund the police and are for racial and economic justice and in the next talk about arresting drug dealers, they’re hypocrites and they’re wrong,” said Marshall, the leader of the DOPE Project.

But Wolf, 50, believes a concerted crackdown on dealers would send a message to the drug networks that San Francisco is no longer an open-air illegal drug market.

Like hundreds of thousands of other Americans who’ve succumbed to opiate misuse, he began with a prescription for the painkiller oxycodone, in his case following foot surgery in 2015. When the pills ran out, he made his way from his tidy home in Daly City, just south of San Francisco, to the Tenderloin, where dealers in hoodies and backpacks loiter three or four deep on some blocks.

When he could no longer afford pills, Wolf switched to heroin, which he learned how to inject on YouTube. He soon lost his job as a caseworker for the city and his wife threw him out, so he became homeless, holding large quantities of drugs for Central American dealers, who sometimes showed him photos of the lavish houses they were having built for their families back home.

Looking back, he wishes it hadn’t taken six arrests and three months behind bars before someone finally pushed him toward treatment.

“In San Francisco, it seems like we’ve moved away from trying to urge people into treatment and instead are just trying to keep people alive,” he said. “And that’s not really working out that great.”

This story was produced by KHN, which publishes California Healthline, an editorially independent service of the California Health Care Foundation.

Kaiser Health News (KHN) is a national health policy news service. It is an editorially independent program of the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation which is not affiliated with Kaiser Permanente.

USE OUR CONTENT

This story can be republished for free (details).

San Francisco Wrestles With Drug Approach as Death and Chaos Engulf Tenderloin published first on https://nootropicspowdersupplier.tumblr.com/

[stephenmccull]

San Francisco Wrestles With Drug Approach as Death and Chaos Engulf Tenderloin

This story also ran on Los Angeles Times. It can be republished for free.

SAN FRANCISCO — In early 2019, Tom Wolf posted a thank-you on Twitter to the cop who had arrested him the previous spring, when he was homeless and strung out in a doorway with 103 tiny bindles of heroin and cocaine in a plastic baggie at his feet.

“You saved my life,” wrote Wolf, who had finally gotten clean after that bust and 90 days in jail, ending six months of sleeping on scraps of cardboard on the sidewalk.

Today, he joins a growing chorus of people, including the mayor, calling for the city to crack down on an increasingly deadly drug trade. But there is little agreement on how that should be done. Those who demand more arrests and stiffer penalties for dealers face powerful opposition in a city with little appetite for locking people up for drugs, especially as the Black Lives Matter and Defund the Police movements push to drastically limit the power of law enforcement to deal with social problems.

Drug overdoses killed 621 people in the first 11 months of 2020, up from 441 in all of 2019 and 259 in 2018. San Francisco is on track to lose an average of nearly two people a day to drugs in 2020, compared with the 178 who had died by Dec. 20 of the coronavirus.

As in other parts of the country, most of the overdoses have been linked to fentanyl, the powerful synthetic opioid that laid waste to the eastern United States starting in 2013 but didn’t arrive in the Bay Area until about five years later. Just as the city’s drug scene was awash with the lethal new product — which is 50 times stronger than heroin and sells on the street for around $20 for a baggie weighing less than half a gram — the coronavirus pandemic hit, absorbing the attention and resources of health officials and isolating drug users, making them more likely to overdose.

The pandemic is contributing to rising overdose deaths nationwide, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which reported last month that a record 81,000 Americans died of an overdose in the 12 months ending in May.

“This is moving very quickly in a horrific direction, and the solutions aren’t matching it,” said Supervisor Matt Haney, who represents the Tenderloin and South of Market neighborhoods, where nearly 40% of the deaths have occurred. Haney, who has hammered City Hall for what he sees as its indifference to a life-or-death crisis, is calling for a more coordinated response.

“It should be a harm reduction response, it should be a treatment response — and yes, there needs to be a law enforcement aspect of it too,” he said.

Tensions within the city’s leadership came to a head in September, when Mayor London Breed supported an effort by City Attorney Dennis Herrera to clean up the Tenderloin by legally blocking 28 known drug dealers from entering the neighborhood.

But District Attorney Chesa Boudin, a progressive elected in 2019 on a platform of police accountability and racial justice, sided with activists opposing the move. He called it a “recycled, punishment-focused” approach that would accomplish nothing.

People have died on the Tenderloin’s needle-strewn sidewalks and alone in hotel rooms where they were housed by the city to protect them from covid-19. Older Black men living alone in residential hotels are dying at particularly high rates; Blacks make up around 5% of the city’s population but account for a quarter of the 2020 overdoses. Last February, a man was found hunched over, ice-cold, in the front pew at St. Boniface Roman Catholic Church.

The only reason drug deaths aren’t in the thousands, say health officials, is the outreach that has become the mainstay of the city’s drug policy. From January to October, 2,975 deaths were prevented by naloxone, an overdose reversal drug that’s usually sprayed up the nose, according to the DOPE Project, a city-funded program that trains outreach workers, drug users, the users’ family members and others.

“If we didn’t have Narcan,” said program manager Kristen Marshall, referring to the common naloxone brand name, “there would be no room at our morgue.”

The city is also hoping that this year state lawmakers will approve safe consumption sites, where people can do drugs in a supervised setting. Other initiatives, like a 24-hour meth sobering center and an overhaul of the city’s behavioral health system, have been put on hold because of pandemic-strained resources.

Efforts like the DOPE Project, the country’s largest distributor of naloxone, reflect a seismic shift over the past few years in the way cities confront drug abuse. As more people have come to see addiction as a disease rather than a crime, there is little appetite for locking up low-level dealers, let alone drug users — policies left over from the “war on drugs” that began in 1971 under President Richard Nixon and disproportionately punished Black Americans.

In practice, San Francisco police don’t arrest people for taking drugs, certainly not in the Tenderloin. On a sunny afternoon in early December, a red-haired young woman in a beret crouched on a Hyde Street sidewalk with her eyes closed, clutching a piece of foil and a straw. A few blocks away, a man sat on the curb injecting a needle into a thigh covered with scabs and scars, while two uniformed police officers sat in a squad car across the street.

Last spring, after the pandemic prompted a citywide shutdown, police stopped arresting dealers to avoid contacts that might spread the coronavirus. Within weeks, the sidewalks of the Tenderloin were lined with transients in tents. The streets became such a narcotics free-for-all that many of the working-class and immigrant families living there felt afraid to leave their homes, according to a federal lawsuit filed by business owners and residents. It accuses City Hall of treating less wealthy ZIP codes as “containment zones” for the city’s ills.

The suit was settled a few weeks later after officials moved most of the tents to designated “safe sleeping sites.” But for many, the deterioration of the Tenderloin, juxtaposed with the gleaming headquarters of companies like Twitter and Uber just blocks away, symbolizes San Francisco’s starkest contradictions.

Mayor Breed, who lost her younger sister to a drug overdose in 2006, has called for a crackdown on drug dealing.

The Federal Initiative for the Tenderloin was one such effort, announced in 2019. It aims to “reclaim a neighborhood that is being smothered by lawlessness,” U.S. Attorney David Anderson said at a recent virtual news conference held to announce a major operation in which the feds arrested seven people and seized 10 pounds of fentanyl.

Law enforcement agencies have blamed the continued availability of cheap, potent drugs on lax prosecutions. Boudin, however, said his office files charges in 80% of felony drug cases, but most involve low-level dealers whom cartels can easily replace in a matter of hours.

He pointed to a 2019 federal sting that culminated in the arrest of 32 dealers — mostly Hondurans who were later deported — after a two-year undercover operation involving 15 agencies.

“You go walk through the Tenderloin today and tell me if it made a difference,” said Boudin.

His position reflects a growing “progressive prosecutor” movement that questions whether decades-old policies that focus on putting people behind bars are effective or just. In May, the killing of George Floyd by the Minneapolis police energized a nationwide police reform campaign. Cities around the country, including San Francisco, have promised to redirect millions of dollars from law enforcement to social programs.

“If our city leadership says in one breath that they want to defund the police and are for racial and economic justice and in the next talk about arresting drug dealers, they’re hypocrites and they’re wrong,” said Marshall, the leader of the DOPE Project.

But Wolf, 50, believes a concerted crackdown on dealers would send a message to the drug networks that San Francisco is no longer an open-air illegal drug market.

Like hundreds of thousands of other Americans who’ve succumbed to opiate misuse, he began with a prescription for the painkiller oxycodone, in his case following foot surgery in 2015. When the pills ran out, he made his way from his tidy home in Daly City, just south of San Francisco, to the Tenderloin, where dealers in hoodies and backpacks loiter three or four deep on some blocks.

When he could no longer afford pills, Wolf switched to heroin, which he learned how to inject on YouTube. He soon lost his job as a caseworker for the city and his wife threw him out, so he became homeless, holding large quantities of drugs for Central American dealers, who sometimes showed him photos of the lavish houses they were having built for their families back home.

Looking back, he wishes it hadn’t taken six arrests and three months behind bars before someone finally pushed him toward treatment.

“In San Francisco, it seems like we’ve moved away from trying to urge people into treatment and instead are just trying to keep people alive,” he said. “And that’s not really working out that great.”

This story was produced by KHN, which publishes California Healthline, an editorially independent service of the California Health Care Foundation.

Kaiser Health News (KHN) is a national health policy news service. It is an editorially independent program of the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation which is not affiliated with Kaiser Permanente.

USE OUR CONTENT

This story can be republished for free (details).

San Francisco Wrestles With Drug Approach as Death and Chaos Engulf Tenderloin published first on https://smartdrinkingweb.weebly.com/

[cool-akashy-maximize]

Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market -Forecast and Analysis (2020-2027)

Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market was valued at $XX Bn. in 2019 and is expected to reach at USD 2.91 Bn by 2027 at a CAGR of XX% over forecast period 2020-2027.

Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market

To know about the Research Methodology :- Request Free Sample Report

The report covers an in depth analysis of COVID 19 pandemic impact on Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market by region and on the key players revenue affected till April 2020 and expected short term and long term impact on the market. Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market Dynamic’s

Sprinkler Irrigation is a method of applying irrigation water which is similar to rainfall. Water is distributed through a system of pipes usually by pumping. It is then sprayed into the air and irrigated entire soil surface through spray heads so that it breaks up into small water drops which fall to the ground. Various factors such as shift from traditional irrigation methods to technologically advanced irrigation systems, high return on investments with time, good water-use efficiency during extreme climatic conditions, public and private support for irrigation projects in developing economies and development of innovative irrigation products are driving the market growth over forecast period. Moreover, increasing adoption of smart irrigation systems and solutions in schoolyards, government parks, and community botanical gardens and technological advancements in sensors & smart irrigation systems is expected to create lucrative opportunities for market over forecast period.

However, factors such as high capital investment for equipment and installation, high maintenance cost for crop growers, falling trend in commodity prices and farm income and lower demand from labour-intensive geographies are restraining the market growth over forecast period.

Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market is segmented by Type, by crop type, by field size, by mobility and by region. By type, the lateral move irrigation system held 38.98% of market share in 2019 and is expected to keep its dominance over forecast period. A linear move sprinkler system is a continuous, self-moving, and straight lateral that irrigates a rectangular field. It is similar to the center pivot system, except that the lateral is supported by trusses, cables, and towers mounted on wheels. Liner move type is followed by center pivot irrigation type. Center pivot irrigation system is expected to hold xx% of market share over forecast period. Center pivot irrigation system is widely used for irrigation of most of field crops, cereals, legumes, forage and vegetables. It is also has application is supplementary irrigation for rain fed grain. By crop type, cereals crop type segment is expected to hold 42.54% of market share over forecast period. To achieve maximum profitability and quality the cereals crop producers are adopting sprinkler irrigation.

By geography, North America held 41.65% of market share in 2019 and is expected to keep its dominance over forecast period. North America dominated the global market with xx% of market share in 2019 and is expected to keep its dominance over forecast period. North America is one of the most important regions in the world for sprinkler irrigation. Various factors such as development in technology and increasing availability of new technologies and presence of major market players in this region are mainly driving the market growth in this region. The major key players such as Valmont Industries, Lindsay Corporation, T-L Irrigation, and Reinke Manufacturing, Inc. are located in this region, which gives the region a competitive advantage. North America is followed by APAC and Europe.

The APAC market is expected to hold xx% of market share over forecast period. Factors such as supportive government initiatives and investments for advanced technological farm equipment and treatment methods, requirement of high-quality agricultural production, increasing import & export scenario and increasing water stress in this region are driving the market growth in this region. For instance, the government of India in its scheme Pradhan mantri krishi sichayi yojana encourages the use of sprinkler irrigation in order to save water. Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd. (India) is leading the market in this region. Jain Sprinkler system is a unique irrigation system. It is designed to ensure maximum water saving, combining high quality, affordability and ease of installation. Their all the products are made out of high strength & chemical resistance engineering plastics to achieve functional satisfaction and to maintain cost economics.

Report covers in depth analysis of key development, marketing strategies, value chain, supply chain and company profiles of market leaders, potential players and new entrants. Some of the prominent key players covered in this are Valmont Industries (US), Lindsay Corporation (US), Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd. (India), The Toro Company (US), Rivulis Irrigation Ltd (Israel), Netafim Ltd (Israel), Rain Bird Corporation (US) and T-L Irrigation (US) among others. These key players accounted more than 75% of market share in 2019. These Key players operating in this market are adopting various organic and inorganic growth strategies such as merger& acquisitions, collaborations, strategic alliances, expansion, joint ventures, new product launches, patent and diversification to increase regional presence and business opeartions.

The objective of the report is to present a comprehensive analysis of the Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market including all the stakeholders of the industry. The past and current status of the industry with forecasted market size and trends are presented in the report with the analysis of complicated data in simple language. The report covers all the aspects of the industry with a dedicated study of key players that includes market leaders, followers and new entrants. PORTER, SVOR, PESTEL analysis with the potential impact of micro-economic factors of the market have been presented in the report. External as well as internal factors that are supposed to affect the business positively or negatively have been analysed, which will give a clear futuristic view of the industry to the decision-makers. The report also helps in understanding Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market dynamics, structure by analyzing the market segments and project Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market. Clear representation of competitive analysis of key players by price, financial position, Product portfolio, growth strategies, and regional presence in the Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market make the report investor’s guide.

for more info:https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/global-sprinkler-irrigation-systems-market/64275/

Scope of Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market: Inquire before buying

Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market by Type

• Center pivot irrigation systems • Lateral move irrigation systems • Solid set sprinkler systems • Others Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market by crop type

• Cereals • Oilseeds & pulses • Fruits & vegetables • Others Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market by field size

• Small fields • Medium-sized • Large fields Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market by mobility

• Stationary • Towable Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market by Region

• North America • Europe • Asia Pacific • South America • MEA& Africa Global Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Market Major Players

• Valmont Industries (US) • Lindsay Corporation (US) • Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd. (India) • The Toro Company (US) • Rivulis Irrigation Ltd (Israel) • Netafim Ltd (Israel) • Rain Bird Corporation (US) • T-L Irrigation (US) • Reinke Manufacturing Co., Inc. (US) • Nelson Irrigation Corporation (US) • Hunter Industries (US) • Mahindra EPC Ltd. (India) • Alkhorayef Group (Saudi Arabia) • Elgo Irrigation Ltd. (Israel) • Antelco Pty Ltd. (Australia) • Irritec S.p.A (Italy).

For More Information Visit @: This Report Is Submitted By : Maximize Market Research Company Customization of the report: Maximize Market Research provides free personalized of reports as per your demand. This report can be personalized to meet your requirements. Get in touch with us and our sales team will guarantee provide you to get a report that suits your necessities.

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[denisehil0]

Report: Treasury fund to ease virus crisis off to slow start

WASHINGTON — The Treasury Department and Federal Reserve have lent hardly any money under a $500 billion fund created by the economic rescue law passed in response to the coronavirus crisis, a congressional oversight panel says in a new report.

The Treasury fund is being used to guarantee new, expansive Federal Reserve lending programs to companies, states and cities that could be leveraged to reach as much as $4.5 trillion.

So far only one of the new Fed programs has started operating, a lending fund likely to be tapped by large public companies, the report by the Congressional Oversight Commission said. The program was started on May 11 with $37.5 billion from Treasury.

The oversight panel issued its first report Monday even though it still does not have a chairman. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., have not agreed on a chair, leaving the five-member commission without a leader.

The commission has four other members appointed by congressional leaders. They produced a 17-page report that contains mostly questions about how the Treasury fund is going to function.

For instance, the panel asked how Treasury and the Fed will assess the program’s success or failure. If the agencies use economy-wide metrics, such as economic growth, unemployment rates or wage growth, “how will they isolate the effects of this program from other factors, including other federal and state relief measures?” the commission asked.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is pledging to reveal names and other details of entities that borrow from emergency programs the central bank has set up to offset the economic hit from the pandemic. In prepared testimony for a Tuesday congressional hearing, Powell says the Fed will disclose amounts borrowed and interest rates levied under programs to provide credit for large corporations, state and local governments and medium-sized businesses.

He and other officials “recognize that the need for transparency is heightened when we are called upon to use our emergency powers,” Powell’s testimony says.

The Fed slashed its benchmark interest rate to near zero as stock markets plunged in March and bond markets froze. The Fed has also intervened by buying $2.1 trillion in bonds in an effort to keep interest rates low and smooth the flow of credit.

Powell said Sunday on CBS’ “60 Minutes” that Congress and the Fed must be prepared to provide additional financial support to prevent permanent damage to the economy from widespread bankruptcies among small businesses and long-term unemployment.

The $500 billion Treasury fund includes $46 billion to make loans and loan guarantees to the airline industry, which has been hit hard by the pandemic as air traffic has come to a near halt. None of that money has been disbursed.

Treasury also is a creating a Main Street Lending Program intended to facilitate lending by banks to small and medium-sized businesses. That program also has not disbursed any money, the report said.

The economic rescue law, also known as the Cares Act, imposed a number of restrictions on the use of the Treasury fund. For example, none of the $500 billion can support an entity in which top Trump administration officials, members of Congress, or certain family members have a controlling interest.

The Fed says it takes time to ensure that the program includes legal language that protects taxpayers. The Fed was criticized for failing to ensure such safeguards during the 2008 financial crisis, most notably to bail out insurance giant AIG.

The failure by Pelosi and McConnell to agree on a chair for the oversight head has disappointed watchdog groups that have pushed for stricter oversight of the $2 trillion rescue law. Representatives for Pelosi and McConnell said they had no update on when the oversight position would be filled.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is set to testify along with Powell Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee.

Mnuchin says in prepared testimony that the Paycheck Protection Program to provide forgiveable loans to small businesses has processed more than 4.2 million loans worth over $530 billion. The program is working “to keep tens of millions of hardworking Americans on the payroll,” Mnuchin says. The loans don’t have to be paid back as long as the borrower uses 75% of the money to cover payroll.

__

AP economics writers Christopher Rugaber and Martin Crutsinger contributed to this story.

Matthew Daly, The Associated Press

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[workingontruth]

Our 2 Kings 7 Kind of Life

Don’t you love it when God shows up?

Have you ever missed it when God showed up?

What about now?

Today, opinions are a dime a dozen. Talk to a dozen people, and you’ll get a dozen different angles on any of a dozen subjects. But in spite of our differences of opinion on any of a wide range of topics, I think we all agree on one thing these days; had I interrupted your Christmas celebration this past December (whether or not I were wearing camel’s hair and in need of a good flossing to extract locust legs from between my teeth), telling you the following list of things would all come true in less than 90 days, you would have labeled me a complete crazy man and would’ve told me to go back beneath the rock from which I had come.

“In less than 90 days,…”

1.       You, over there in the Free Enterprise motor coach pullover (that would’ve been me) … you will be returning to the University of Indianapolis with the Men’s Lacrosse team from South Carolina before playing the final game of your trip–but oddly enough, both teams will be fully healthy, the weather will be ideal, and the trip will have been coasting along without a hitch. Oh, and the university’s administration will also require the other eight remaining U Indy teams, participating in their various collegiate sporting events from Florida to California and everywhere in between, to immediately return to campus as well. And, once you return, your entire fleet of buses will be emptied of fuel, removed from insurance plans, and put out of service–though all machines are mechanically sound and all drivers are healthy and available to drive.

2.       And you, in the red Community Hospital valet shirt (that would’ve be my wife) … you will be in your new role in the front office of the Center for Genetic Health. But having been asked not to congregate with your co-workers in the perfectly suited and newly designed office space the hospital had just finished, you and all of your co-workers will be working from home to reschedule all patient appointments sixty days or more into the future–unless they are willing to conduct their appointment over the phone or via video-chat.

3.       The NBA post-season will never happen, and the balance of the season itself will be stopped cold in its tracks at half-time of a game in the Mountain Time Zone on Wednesday, March 11th.

4.       All NCAA spring athletic events will be cancelled for the remainder of the school year and March Madness won’t happen.

5.       There will be no date set to begin the MLB season.

6.       Grocery stores will have been unable to keep chicken, ground beef, bread and toilet paper on their shelves.

7.       Gasoline will, in some places, be under a dollar a gallon, but few will be filling up.

8.       The nation’s restaurants will be closed for all dine-in experiences while the fortunate will try to stay in business by doing carry-out or drive-through business only.

9.       All shopping malls, strip malls, barber shops and hair and nail salons will be closed.

10.   The Federal Government will be sending $1,200 tax-free cash gifts to the vast majority of American citizens.

11.   The world will have a drastic shortage of personal protective equipment.

12.   The Down Jones Industrial Average will suffer 3 of its worst days since the “Black Monday” market crash in 1987 in the span of less than a week, losing roughly one-third of its value in a matter of about eight days.

13.   State governors will be requesting their citizens “shelter in place” by remaining home but for essential trips for food or health-related emergencies, while in some states it will be a finable offense to travel anywhere but to secure such.

14.   The President and VP of the United States will be holding daily, 2-hour press briefings for weeks on end.

15.   Frequent air travel will be little but a memory, international travel banned, airfares costing less than a good meal out (which will no longer be happening).

16.   The President will sign a presidential memorandum that will require the likes of General Motors to begin manufacturing respiratory ventilators.

17.   Dozens of privately held companies like Michael Lindell’s “My Pillow,” will be transformed into N-95 facemask factories.

18.   Samaritan’s Purse will have set up and be running a fully-functioning hospital in the middle of New York City’s Central Park.

19.   The United States Naval Hospital Ship “Comfort” will have been deployed to New York to help in the cause.

20.   Most people will be wearing PPE masks everywhere they go.

21.   All public concerts world-wide will be on hold.

22.   Churches will be asked not to meet, and nearly all will comply without resistance.

23.   Employees representing nearly every U.S. industry will be furloughed, let go or kept on payrolls with forgivable loans from the Fed.

24.   People will be asked to stand in lines outside Lowe’s stores at six-foot intervals to ensure active shopper customer quotas are kept while both one-way entries and exits are monitored.

25.   Many stores will be required to close down public access to much of their merchandise not deemed “essential,” to help support the cause.

26.   Pork, chicken and other meat packing plants in the U.S. will be closing down.

27.   U.S. unemployment will be at the highest rate since the Great Depression as new weekly filing claims will be counted not in the hundreds of thousands, but in the millions.

28.   The nation’s, and most of the world’s movie theaters, will be closed.

29.   People without facemasks will be shunned and avoided by “mask-wearers.”

30.   Neighbors will be sitting in their driveways and on FRONT porches again.

31.   College students will be home with their families, taking part in online classwork since all university campuses will be closed prior to semesters’ end.

32.   In lieu of our celebrating athletes and Hollywood types, doctors, nurses and healthcare workers will be the new heroes.

33.   People in some industries will be earning more to stay at home than while working full time.

34.   The Fed will be paying the unemployed an additional $600/week over and above the state provisions.

35.   All elective surgeries will be halted while hospital ORs remain unused.

36.   Online church “attendance” will skyrocket, leading to thousands and thousands of new believers.

37.   American celebrity musicians will be holding online “Global Citizen” concerts to raise millions of dollars to give to the World Health Organization which is being held liable for its part in enabling the death of hundreds of thousands in nearly 200 countries world-wide.

Would any of these things been plausible just a few months ago?

Obviously, this is only a partial list, and one to which most of us could quickly add another dozen. And NOTE they’re not all bad! Isn’t it just like God to orchestrate blessing in the face of difficulty? 

But in my mind, these “90-days-ago incomprehensible occurrences” are not unlike the similarly baffling predictions that Elisha, in 2 Kings Chapter 7, was revealing to the king and his officer.

Here’s the short version:  

Elisha replied, “Hear the word of the Lord. This is what the Lord says: About this time tomorrow, a seah [probably about 7 lbs] of the finest flour will sell for a shekel and two seahs of barley for a shekel at the gate of Samaria.” 

The officer on whose arm the king was leaning said to the man of God, “Look, even if the Lord should open the floodgates of the heavens, could this happen?”

“You will see it with your own eyes,” answered Elisha, “but you will not eat any of it!”

The officer was utterly confounded. “Really? How could this be?” And to be sure, there is no way, given their circumstance at the time, they could have concocted such an unlikely series of events.

(Read verses 3-13 to learn how this mystifying prophecy actually took place.)

But then, the verdict is recorded in the later verses...

“So they selected two chariots with their horses, and the king sent them after the Aramean army. He commanded the drivers, “Go and find out what has happened.” They followed them as far as the Jordan, and they found the whole road strewn with the clothing and equipment the Arameans had thrown away in their headlong flight. So the messengers returned and reported to the king. Then the people went out and plundered the camp of the Arameans. So a seah of the finest flour sold for a shekel, and two seahs of barley sold for a shekel, as the Lord had said.”

Now the king had put the officer on whose arm he leaned in charge of the gate, and the people trampled him in the gateway, and he died, just as the man of God had foretold when the king came down to his house. It happened as the man of God had said to the king: “About this time tomorrow, a seah of the finest flour will sell for a shekel and two seahs of barley for a shekel at the gate of Samaria.” ...but your officer will not eat any of it.

What’s my point?

God often does things in ways no man would ever script. What we deem impossible is a drop in the bucket of God’s immeasurable and endless power and insight. After all, He knows the future!  

But here’s what WE do.

If told of how the above-mentioned improbables would come true by late-March, we would have responded, “Oh I see. What a tragic series of events. But I understand now how that will happen. It all makes sense.”

And because it “makes sense” in hindsight, we disregard the overriding variable of the supernatural God into the equation and chalk up the now-plausible circumstance as nothing more than the “natural” occurrence of things.  

No matter how crazy things get, when viewing world events on merely the natural plane, most won’t need a God to “see it.” It will all make logical, cause-and-effect sense.

In the same way, I believe much of what will lead up to Revelation 12 and is told us in Daniel 11:31 and following, will likewise “make good sense” to the mind of mankind at the time. Going so far as to think of the Anti-Christ to come, we have to assume he will not come into power forcefully, but peaceably, with the full support of a global community…one that is now forming rapidly. Yes, it will all “make perfect sense,” for the answers and charismatic leadership of the one we know is to come will help to solve what will have become the world’s most pressing and previously unsolvable complexities. And the world community will give him his prominent role. 

Still, for those in Christ, let me be clear that these can be days of amazing intrigue and anticipation, not fear and worry. 

But, you see, my point is that this is how God usually chooses to bring about his plans, through a course of events that will be laced in the common sense of man … so much so that even the elect would be deceived were it possible (Matthew 24:24).

BUT, He gives light to the eyes of his children. Our great and unshakeable God has let us in on his plans. We are his friends if we do what He commands (John 15:14). And as friends of the Son of God, the Son has made known us to his agenda (John 15:15).

Now, my intention is not to insinuate we are absolutely on the cusp of the rapture of the Church, or teetering at the edge of the Tribulation–though I’m also not saying that we couldn’t be, for the Father alone only knows the day of Jesus’ return for his children (Matthew 24:30-42).

What I am saying is that if we can learn anything from history, and from an acquaintance with the scriptures, we can assume that the initial events predicted in the Bible will likely “make sense” in the moment to the mind of unregenerate man.

So, one last question. 

Given our current sermon series at my home church, Northview Church, I am wondering if you are listening, watching and fellowshipping with the Holy Spirit living inside you? It’s something about which I wrote in great length as well in SET FREE. 

Do you know the mind of Christ? Do you have the mind of Christ? 

If not, it’s time to change that. If not, you may be missing that God himself is showing up right now on planet Earth.

Place your trust in Jesus Christ. He is ready to open your eyes.

Maybe it’s time you learn more about the God who is doing something incredible right now in the midst of this unprecedented time. Maybe it’s time you gain in you the Resource that dispells anxiety and replaces it with a calm assurance the world will never understand. 

You can learn more about having a relationship with Jesus here. Or, reach out to a pastor at Northview Church by texting “NEXT” to 85379 and selecting Option 2.

God is showing up right now. Don’t miss him in the details.

Keep watching.

[devotedlydistinguishednut]

Wednesday Briefing by The New York Times

India’s coronavirus mystery

    The country has around 125 confirmed cases, and it’s a bit of a puzzle how the world’s second-most-populous nation, with 1.3 billion people, has seemingly remained unscathed so far.

    There could be many more cases in India than have been detected, because of the difficulties of getting tested. But it’s also possible that the country has actually managed to so far escape the worst — either because of quick and strict efforts right from the start, or another mix of factors.

    The relative calm has fueled disbelief in some quarters that the virus is even a threat. Over the weekend in Lucknow, one of India’s bigger cities, young people packed into pubs. “I am not scared. I eat, party, sleep,” said Akshay Gupta, an accountant who was bar hopping on Saturday night. “The scare is overhyped.” 

    Elsewhere in Asia, countries have begun to impose strict measures, including lockdowns in the Philippines and Malaysia and the widespread closure of schools, businesses and entertainment venues in Thailand. Some nations face a worrisome rise in cases without health care systems that can deal with a major outbreak.

Case studies: 

    Early intervention, meticulous tracking, quarantines and social distancing helped Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong get their outbreaks under control.

■ New York City residents were told to prepare for a possible “shelter in place” order in the next 48 hours. Separately, the Trump administration will seek to send cash payments directly to Americans to cushion the economic blow of the pandemic.

■ The first testing in humans of an experimental vaccine has begun, but even if it is proved safe and effective, it will not be available for at least a year.

■ The European Union has adopted a 30-day ban on non-essential travel to European countries from the rest of the world, starting a stretch of isolation like nothing in modern history outside wartime.

■ After suffering their worst day in decades, stocks bounced back: The S&P 500 rose about 6 percent as Washington policymakers talked up plans to try to cushion the economy.

■ The actors Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson have been released from the hospital after contracting the virus.

What we can do next

    Melina caught up with Donald G. McNeil Jr., our infectious diseases reporter who has been covering epidemics for nearly two decades. He has been reporting on experts’ recommendations for what to do next.

    You’ve said this is a crisis but it’s not unstoppable. How do we stop it?

    We need to shut down all travel, as experts have said. And then we really aggressively tackle the clusters. People have got to stop shaking hands; people have got to stop going to bars and restaurants. New clusters are appearing every day.

    It’s basically urgent that America imitates what China did. China had a massive outbreak in Wuhan, spreading all over the country, and they’ve almost stopped it. We can shut off the roads, flights, buses and trains. I don’t think we’ll ever succeed at doing exactly what China did. It’s going to cause massive social disruption because Americans don’t like being told what to do. 

    In places like China, Singapore and Taiwan, they’ve gone through SARS — they know how scary it is.

    Is that what some countries are missing? This sense of collective action and selflessness?

    That is absolutely what many Americans are missing — that it’s not about you right now. When I was a kid, my parents were in the World War II generation and there was more of a sense of, hey, we did something amazing; we ramped up this gigantic society effort. It was this sense of we’re all in this together. 

    We’ve got to realize that we’re all in this together and save each other’s lives. That has not penetrated yet and it needs to penetrate because we all have to cooperate.

    The sad thing is: Most people — this has been true in every epidemic I’ve covered, whether it’s Zika in Puerto Rico or AIDS in South Africa — don’t believe in the disease until they see someone get sick and die from it, someone they know. And it’s too bad. It’s: Oh, that’s happening to those people over there; that’s happening in China; that’s not going to happen to us.

    I imagine that after decades of covering epidemics, you understood Covid-19’s severity early on. Tell me about when this became serious for you. 

    I remember vividly — I went on vacation to Argentina, not thinking this was terribly serious: It sounds like an animal disease and it’s going to kill a limited number of people. By the time I came back, China admitted there was sustained human-to-human transmission. I started watching the case counts double and doing the math in my head, and I realized, oh my god. This is going pandemic.

    When was that?

    It was late January. I was on the subway, going from work to my girlfriend’s house, just sort of thinking about the numbers and realizing: Wait a minute, that doubling rate is so fast, there’s no way this isn’t going to become a pandemic. I started writing on a piece of notebook paper trying to see if I was crazy — and then went looking up the 1918 pandemic and realized that was the closest model to this.

China bans American journalists from major outlets

    Beijing announced that it would expel American journalists working for The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post, and also ban them from reporting in territories like Hong Kong and Macau.

    It also demanded that those outlets, as well as the Voice of America and Time magazine, provide the government with information about their operations. The full scope of the directive was not immediately clear.

     The latest move in the tit-for-tat campaign between Washington and Beijing comes at a moment when reporting on the coronavirus is a global, 24-hour operation for most news outlets. Last month China expelled three Wall Street Journal reporters from the country. President Trump responded this month by limiting the number of Chinese citizens who could work in the U.S. for five state-controlled Chinese news organizations.

    Related: China has been cracking down on online anger toward the government for its handling of the coronavirus outbreak. A new internet police force is knocking on doors of suspected critics, subjecting them to hours of interrogation and in some cases forcing them to sign loyalty pledges.

Why yoga is causing a stir in Nepal

    Next month, the small Himalayan nation will become the first in the world to make yoga a required subject nationwide.

    For many around the world in similar programs, it’s a healing and stress-reducing addition to a curriculum. But in a region where the exercises are increasingly intertwined with rising Hindu nationalism, some Muslims are worried.

Here’s what else is happening

Football: The European Championship, second only to the World Cup in international football, will be postponed until 2021.

Germany: A laptop sold on eBay for $100 was discovered to contain classified software for a surface-to-air rocket system used by the country’s air force.

Syria: Amid a cease-fire in the northern province of Idlib, some of the hundreds of thousands of displaced residents are trickling back. But very few believe the quiet will last.

Snapshot: A physicist is trying to disentangle the structural dynamics of bird nests using bamboo skewers, above. A nest is “a disordered stick bomb,” resilient in ways that humans have hardly begun to understand.

What we’re reading: This Harvard Business Review article about two new mothers who take very different paths going back to work in Sweden and the U.S. “Reading the two stories side by side shows just how dismally work-family policies in the U.S. measure up — if they’re there at all,” says Francesca Donner, the director of our Gender Initiative.

Now, a break from the news

Cook: This rosemary, olive oil and orange cake is great for what our Food editor Sam Sifton calls “procrastibaking,” though “anxiety baking may be the better term of art these days.”

Shows for social distancing: Looking for a few hours of distraction between vigorous hand-washings? Need a moment away from Twitter? A musical mockumentary, an addiction sitcom, two true-crime docs and a pottery competition are here to help.

Read: Was there a murder on the Mayflower? In her new novel, “Beheld,” TaraShea Nesbit uses a death on the pilgrim ship to examine what life was like for women in the Plymouth Colony.

Smarter Living: Here are some ways to help your community combat the coronavirus while still practicing social distancing. For starters, donate — ideally money, not old cans — to your local food bank.

And now for the Back Story on … Covering an infected global economy

    The pandemic is having a big impact on the world’s wallet. To understand the fallout, Times Insider spoke to Jeanna Smialek, who covers the Federal Reserve from Washington. Below is a condensed version of the conversation.

    On Sunday, the Fed slashed interest rates to almost zero. How could that affect us going forward?

    The move should help consumers borrow and spend. For example, it should make mortgages cheaper. But at the end of the day, nothing the Fed can do at this point is going to offset the full shock of coronavirus, because its tools are just not well suited to making up for lost work hours or helping employees who have missed out on paychecks.

    Can nations work together to help the global economy rebound?

    Central banks do not have the firefighting power that they had going into the 2008 financial crisis. Many central banks, like in Japan and in parts of Europe, already had very low or even negative interest rates. And so they just have less room to act to soften the economic blow.

    What matters right now is what happens to the companies getting clobbered in the moment. Is this a short-term blip that is painful but not devastating? Or will this kill companies, thereby having greater repercussions for financial markets, and be much more long-lived in its pain?

    If there’s one takeaway for readers on the global economy, what should it be?

    It’s been said by every person on the planet at this point, but the single best thing for the global economy is for this virus to be contained. More than any fiscal or monetary package, the public health response here is most important.

— Melina and Jonathan Adapted from "Your Wednesday Briefing, The New York Times" <nytdirect@nytimes.com>