#50 mil on the mb it's not like I really need a house right

[asleepinawell]

excuse me???!!!?????

[imagiversetheshow-blog]

Just a warning of good will/luck.

Hi, ummm... it’s been a while. I have not been posting and such because, to be honest, I’m extremely depressed right now, I have a ton of work to do constantly, and I just don’t feel like doing anything. If it’s a question, yeah, it is related to the Imagiverse, at least the depression, but that’s not what I want to talk about. I know I’m not a “talking head” per-say, but I have been looking at a lot of articles, and it is very clear to me that we are on our way to 2008′s crash AGAIN. I’m not kidding. Right now there is only a slight alarm, just like in early 2007 during the first time it started to crash, but just from psychology and all the stuff I’ve been researching, it seems Wall Street junkies are getting back into prep for another big short. If you don’t know all of that, if you want a more complete picture of what’s going on, I suggest you watch The Big Short; their humor is great, their explanations are easy to understand, and it shows the crash from behind the scenes rather than from the idiots like Greenspan; but I’ll sum up what is happening quickly: if you don’t know, in Wall Street terms (because they love being f*cking unicorns and being f*cking confusing at the same time) a “short” is a bet against something. So, when you buy a stock, you are betting that it will go up or that it will profit, but when you short a stock, you are betting that it will go down or that it will fail. Shorting is not usually used for stocks, though. Shorting’s most famous use if you really know Wall Street is the “big short,” which is what the movie is about, where a few small and large financial investment companies managed to short MBS bonds, or Mortgage Backed Security bonds, by just looking at the crappy bonds YEARS before anyone like Greenspan were sounding the alarms. If you don’t know what an MBS is, here’s a quick explaination: you know when you get a mortgage on your house and it says that the mortgage has been bought by someone? Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, etc etc? Well, when one of those banks, or in the case of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, those mortgage specialist banks, own your mortgage, they take your house, rate the quality of your mortgage on the house (based on FICO scores, what kind of loan it is [subprime/prime, fixed/adjustable, etc.] and all that jazz) and then put it together with 1000′s of other mortgages in a tranche (which is the French word for “a part of something.”) Then, they take these tranches and class those, sorting them into B, BB, BBB, A, AA, and AAA. Then, they take one of each and stack them together in that order, and wrap it legally to make it a MBS bond. Now, what do these do? Like, how do they work, right? Well, the easiest explaination is that the bottom of the bond (B, BB) defaults first, meaning it fails first, while the top of the bond (AA, AAA) gets paid first, and therefore makes investors money first. Now, ready for me to get into the scummy stuff? Ready for me to blow your mind with the sheer idiocy of people up top? Good. So, take your average MBS, and chop off the bottom layers (B, BB, BBB.) Now reorganize the failing parts of those tranches and put them in their own pile. That pile is called a CDO, or Collateralized Debt Obligation. It’s literally made of pure shit; subprime and adjustable shit, with low FICO scores behind them, right? Now, this CDO, because of the way they are made legally, is rated 80%-90% AAA even though it’s complete shit, ok? Back during the original big short, they said that a pile like this could be only 20% to even 0% AAA in actuality, alright? Well, because they are rated AAA and they make a crap ton of money in the betting world, thousands of investors are going to bet on this pile winning, until, if this is $50 mil worth of CDO shit, there is about $1 billion floating around in these bets. Well, the MBS that created this pile just had B and BB tranches fail. Now what happens? Now, that means this CDO just failed. *Poof* 1 billion dollars just went up in smoke. And this is why Bear Sterns failed, and why Morgan Stanley lost a crap ton of money, and why Lehman Brothers failed. But how did the shorters make money? Because they had shorts, like insurance, on MBS’s and CDO’s. They got their ass handed to them for years in royalties to the banks that they dealt with, but they won out in the end. They said they would fail, they failed, and they made millions of dollars off that bet. So, why did I say all that? Well, the people from 2005, when the first shorts were made, are now starting to publicly short. And it’s going to happen quick if they are right. And, just as a reminder, with all numbers considered, over $20 trillion was lost as a combination of household wealth, home equity (the worth of the house or mortgage on the house) as well as money in the stock market and the services that people live off of, like pensions and stuff like that. People lost their jobs in the thousands, people lost their retirement capacity, people lost their houses, it was BAD. And if you’re wondering why I’m worried about it, being a teen, I’m thinking of getting a job but I have to get a job cleared by NY’s OPWDD services due to my special needs, and guess what? All those jobs are the same jobs that disappeared at the end of 2008, and not because they were closed out, but because the previous business men and women needed to work at Walmart and Walgreens and Wegmans since they didn’t have jobs on Wall Street anymore. Teens get it rough these days because, based on how the job world is these days, employers are much more likely to hire a 40 year old with “experience” to be a greeter or a cashier than a 16 year old just starting out that needs training. So, where are we supposed to work if we want to go to college? We can’t, unless our parents can help. So, anyway, I’ve been talking long enough. Save your money, is what I wanted to say. The crash is coming, so save your money. And have a good day. That would be nice too. ;)