#204 presidential election

[antebunny]

i am going to outlive him. do you understand that? i will outlive this wannabe dictator with soup for brains by so many decades and i will outlive a significant percentage of his supporters too. i will survive his second presidency. however many people he kills, i probably won’t be one of them. however much he destroys american democracy, i’ll be there on the other side far longer than that decrepit, grave-dancing miserable orange flesh bag of a human being. to all the people out there saying “please live” that was never in question. that is a threat and a promise and a realization said with slowly-dawning horror.

i do not believe there exists a Heaven or Hell. i believe that when you die, that is the end, and all the consequences we can experience for how we lived our lives must be carried out right here on Earth. yet i will be the one suffering the fallout of his actions while he will leave it all behind within the decade. a supreme court in an ultra conservative chokehold that has already overturned roe v wade and will come for obergefell v hodges next. the brain worm guy in charge of public health. people who despise education in charge of keeping us ignorant. an infatuation with authoritarianism that’ll turn us against all our real allies and gaza into a smoking crater. total immunity for the guy who wants revenge on half the country. and AMERICA VOTED FOR IT.

if anything i’ve been radicalized further left precisely because i know i will still be here for decades, maybe even a century to come. i will have to deal with all the damage they have wrought on my future. i will have to deal with them as fellow citizens. but i already know that i will not, in all my life, forgive the americans who voted for him in 2024. that is tens of millions of americans, over half the country. that was their choice and yet i am led to believe that they must all be either evil, stupid or crazy. one of those three things must be true for them to have voted the way they did. misinformation? please. we’re all dealing with misinfo and have been for years. am i supposed to treat you like a victim because when it really mattered you couldn’t figure it out? no. i will not forgive, i will not forget. i don’t want to hear any more “i voted for him but then i saw the light.” how can you even look me in the eye when you voted for the guy who wants me and my friends dead? i think america is sick at heart. that is my radical takeaway. there is something truly broken about this country if he only wins the popular vote after everything that has happened since 2015.

like i said. i do not believe in an afterlife. but i hope for their sakes that his God is real. may their God forgive them before sending them to Hell because I never will.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Eric Levitz at Vox:

Democrats have been raining cash on their presidential nominee like it’s confetti. Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign raised $204 million in July — more than four times the $48 million former President Donald Trump brought in, according to new filings with the Federal Election Commission. This was enough to erase the Republican nominee’s previous cash advantage; at the start of August, Harris had $220 million in cash on hand, while Trump held just $151 million. Official data on August fundraising has yet to be released. But there’s reason to believe that Harris’s money advantage grew last month, due in part to the Democratic National Convention. According to the Democrat’s campaign, it raised $540 million in the first six weeks since President Joe Biden handed off the nomination.

Yet this torrential downpour of campaign cash hasn’t trickled down the Democratic ballot: Even as Harris has begun outraising Trump, the Republican committee responsible for funding GOP state legislative candidates has amassed far more money than its Democratic counterpart. From January 2023 through the second quarter of this year, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) — the body tasked with electing Democratic state legislators — had raised $35 million, according to the committee. Over the same period, its GOP rival, the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC), had raised $62 million. Those figures do not include the fundraising of party-aligned outside groups that focus on state legislative races. In recent years, progressive organizations such as The States Project and Forward Majority have spent large sums on state-level races. It’s possible that when super PACs are taken into account, the GOP loses its apparent cash advantage. Then again, there are also conservative outside groups, such as Americans For Prosperity Action, that invest in down-ballot elections. What we know for sure is that, when it comes to the parties themselves, Republicans are outraising Democrats in the fight for statehouses. That fight is often neglected by the national spotlight — but it can have profound implications for Americans’ daily lives.

The Harris campaign appears to be conscious of its party’s down-ballot challenges. This week, it transferred $2.5 million of its own funds to the DLCC. Yet that largesse scarcely narrows the RSLC’s cash advantage. Ultimately, only Democratic donors can ensure that the GOP enjoys no down-ballot edge. Given blue America’s current enthusiasm and engagement, this should be possible — at least, if liberals come to appreciate the high stakes, and low cost, of winning state legislative races.

Dear Democrats: please prioritize state legislative races, especially in competitive states, as you get a lot more bang for your buck than the Presidential or Congressional races.

See Also:

MeidasTouch News: Harris Campaign Makes Largest Investment Ever In State-Level Races

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this Chicago Tribune story:

Where Lake Michigan and Lake Huron connect, powerful water currents rush in opposite directions over an antiquated pipeline known as Line 5. Along the pipeline’s route from Wisconsin to Ontario, via the Straits of Mackinac, more than 1 million gallons of oil have reportedly spilled in the past 50 years.

Experts say Line 5 is vulnerable to future leaks and poses a risk to the livelihood of Indigenous communities, the region’s thriving wildlife and the drinking water of millions of Great Lakes residents.

Decades-old battles to remove the Canadian-owned pipeline from the Bad River Band reservation by Lake Superior and the lakebed of the Straits of Mackinac have played out mostly in Wisconsin and Michigan, respectively. Activists seeking the shutdown of Line 5 recently brought the fight to Chicago to consolidate a larger grassroots effort ahead of a presidential election that policy experts say will be critical to the pipeline’s future. 

“Essentially, what we are asking for and urging that the current and the next administration do, is come up with a regional plan that continues this clean energy transition we’re already on,” said Bentley Johnson, director of federal government affairs at the Michigan League of Conservation Voters. “Let’s start by decommissioning the most dangerous infrastructure that we have — and we really feel like the facts show that Line 5 is America’s most dangerous pipeline.

“In Bad River, we’re one storm away, one bad flood away from eroding the river bank and exposing this pipeline,” he said. “In the straits, we’re one anchor strike away, we’re one crack away from a devastating oil spill that jeopardizes the drinking water for tens of millions.”

Clean water remains the top environmental concern for most Americans, according to a Gallup poll conducted earlier this year. And protecting the Great Lakes, one of the world’s largest surface freshwater ecosystems, has become urgent as population growth and human-made climate change cause water shortages in parts of the United States. According to research by Colorado State University, nearly half of the country’s 204 freshwater basins might not be able to meet monthly water demands by 2071.

[nordleuchten]

24 Days of La Fayette: December 11th - Jean-Louis and Jacques-Alexandre Romeuf

Jean-Louis Romeuf (and his younger brother Alexandre) have a special place on this list, because they are thus far La Fayette’s only aide-de-camps that served him during his commands in France. None of the two has ever been to America, neither during the War for Independence nor later on.

Jean-Louis Romeuf was born on September 27, 1766 to Barthélemy Romeuf. He had three brothers, Claude Romeuf, the oldest of the brothers, the l’Abbe Romeuf, the second oldest, who long served as the canon of the cathedral Saint-Flour, and Jacques-Alexandre. The Romeuf’s hailed, just like the La Fayette’s, from the Auvergne in France. It appears as if there had been more children and possible more brothers, but the book Nobiliaire d'Auvergne by Jean-Baptiste Bouillet served as my main source and only featured these four children.

Jean-Louis first entered the army in 1789 when he became an aide-de-camp to General la Fayette who had just been elected commander of the newly formed National Guard. Romeuf had been commissioned a captain in September of 1791 but continued on his current post until he left France alongside La Fayette and a number of other officers in 1792. He was among the unlucky man captured by the Austrians. Adrienne de La Fayette wrote a letter to George Washington in French on October 8, 1792. Tobias Lear translated the letter for Washington and John Dyson made three copies in French. One copy features a postscript that is not found in Lear’s translation or in one of Dyson’s other copies. It reads in parts:

Messr Maubourg, M. Bureau de Puzy et M. la Colombe qui a l’avantage d’avoir servi les Etats Unis meritent d’être distingués parmi les Compagnons d’infortune. Messrs Romeuf, Pillet, Masson, Curmeer les deux jeunes frères de M. Maubourg sont au nombre des Prisonniers, et ont tout le droit possible, à l’interêt le plus tendre par leur attachement à Monsr Lafayette depuis le commencement de la Revolution.

Endnotes of “To George Washington from the Marquise de Lafayette, 8 October 1792,” Founders Online, National Archives, [Original source: The Papers of George Washington, Presidential Series, vol. 11, 16 August 1792 – 15 January 1793, ed. Christine Sternberg Patrick. Charlottesville: University of Virginia Press, 2002, pp. 204–207.] (02/10/2022)

My translation:

Messr Maubourg, Mr. Bureau de Puzy and Mr. la Colombe who has the advantage of having served the United States deserve to be distinguished among the Companions in misfortune. Messrs Romeuf, Pillet, Masson, Curmeer the two young brothers of M. Maubourg are among the number of prisoners, and have every possible right, to the most tender interest by their attachment to Monsr Lafayette since the beginning of the Revolution.

While Jean-Louis Romeuf was imprisoned alongside La Fayette and some of the other officers, I struggle to determine the exact duration of his detention. It is possible that Romeuf even was held at Olmütz. He was however released long before La Fayette because Romeuf managed to play an important part in the Marquis’ release. Jules Germain Cloquet described the scene in his book:

Louis de Romeuf formerly, aide-de-camp to Lafayette, arrived, after some difficulty, from the army at Vienna. He had been sent by Generals Bonaparte and Clarke to have a direct explanation with the Baron de Thugut, the prime minister of Austria. After much negotiation, the minister at last consented to the liberation of the prisoners on condition “that the American consul at Hamburgh would promise to do his utmost to engage them to quit the territory belonging to the imperial jurisdiction within ten days after their arrival at Hamburgh, to which city they were to be escorted.“ Romeuf gave an account of his mission to Generals Bonaparte and Clarke, and also to the Director Barthélemy. He obtained the promise asked of the American consul and was at length enabled, after fresh difficulties to announce that on the 23d September 1797, Lafayette and his friends had been set at liberty.

Jules Germain Cloquet, Recollections of the Private Life of General Lafayette, Baldwin and Cradock, London, 1835, p. 58.

After La Fayette’s release, Romeuf spend the winter of 1797/98 with the La Fayette’s in exile in Danish-Holstein before returning to France. La Fayette rote to George Washington on August 20-21, 1798:

Among the friends who Can give me Minute information is My former Aid de Camp Louïs Romeuf who after Having past the winter with me is now in Bonaparte’s Staff.

“To George Washington from Lafayette, 20–21 August 1798,” Founders Online, National Archives, [Original source: The Papers of George Washington, Retirement Series, vol. 2, 2 January 1798 – 15 September 1798, ed. W. W. Abbot. Charlottesville: University Press of Virginia, 1998, pp. 539–545.] (02/10/2022)

When La Fayette returned to France, it was Jacques-Alexandre Romeuf in his turn, who helped his former General out. Virginie wrote in her book:

She [Adrienne] wished him [La Fayette] to return ere time had brought the slightest change, and without any other authorization than the liberal intentions then proclaimed by the new government. She obtained a passport for him under an assumed name, and M. Alexandre Romeuf one of his former aid de camps brought it to him.

Mme de Lasteyrie, Life of Madame de Lafayette, L. Techener, London, 1872, p. 381-382.

Jacques-Alexandre was born on November 19, 1772 and just like his brother joined La Fayette’s staff in 1790 as a capitaine aide-de-camp. He was not imprisoned along with La Fayette and his brother.

After the end of the French Revolution, the career of the two Romeuf brothers began to prosper. Jean-Louis participated in the expedition to Egypt with the rank of a Chef d’escadron and worked as an aide-de-camp to General Matthieu Dumas. He fought with the Army of the Reserve and served under Generals Brune and Macdonald. He then went on to serve under Maréchal Davoust in 1802 at Bruges and Boulongne as an adjutant-commander. Napoléon I created him Commander of the Legion of Honor and appointed him Governor General of the Duchy of Warsaw in 1808. In May of the same year, the King of Saxony awarded him the Order of Saint-Henri. He was created a baron in 1809 after the Battle of Regensburg. He was commissioned a Brigadier-General and worked as the Chief of Staff in the Army of Germany and then in the First Corps of the Grand Army, commanded by the prince of Eckmulh.

Jean-Louis Romeuf went with Napoléon I to Russia and was killed by a cannon ball during the Siege/Battle of Moscow on September 7, 1812.

La Fayette wrote to his friend Amé Thérèse Joseph Masclet Masclet on April 7, 1813:

The Russian campaign has been particularly fatal to me. You have no doubt shared my regret for the loss of my dear Louis Romeuf, -- a misfortune which I shall never cease to deplore. We have also lost my nephew Alfred Noailles, to whom I was attached by so many feelings and recollections. Victor Tracy has been taken prisoner, as well as my poor friend Boinville, who was obliged to undergo the amputation of all his toes. My cousin, Octave Ségur, was also taken prisoner at the commencement of the campaign.

Jules Germain Cloquet, Recollections of the Private Life of General Lafayette, Baldwin and Cradock, London, 1835, p. 41.

Since Jean-Louis was unmarried and childless, Napoléon I allowed that his titles were transferred to his oldest nephew, Jules Romeuf, the son of his brother Claude.

Jacques-Alexandre Romeuf joined the newly formed Army of Naples in 1806 as a Squadron-Commander and was chosen as his aide-de-camp by general Dumas. By 1807 he was Chief-of-Staff to General Donzelot and was awarded the Royal Order of the Two-Sicilies. In 1810 he was commissioned Adjutant-general and became a Commander of the Order of the Two Sicilies.

Joachim Murat chose Romeuf as his aide-de-camp to accompany him to Russia and so Jacques-Alexandre was with his brother Jean-Louis, when the latter died on September 7, 1812. On December 5, 1812, Jacques-Alexandre was named an Officer of the Legion of Honor. He left the Army of Naples in 1814 and returned to France. He was made Chevalier de Saint Louis on August 20, 1814 by the government of the First Restauration and quitted the army on September 9, 1814.

Just like his brother, he was made a baron, but this time by King Louis XVIII in 1817. It was also King Louis XVIII who appointed Romeuf as a Commander of the Legion of Honor.

Unlike his brother, Jacques-Alexandre had married, a woman by the name of Françoise Gosselin. The couple had one surviving son. Romeuf died on April 26, 1845 in Paris.

Jacque-Alexandre’s Acte de Décès is in the État civil reconstitué (XVIe-1859) of the city of Paris:

Paris Archives, État civil reconstitué (XVIe-1859), Cote 5Mi1 1330, p. 40-41. (10/03/2022)

[brookstonalmanac]

Events 10.26 (after 1950)

1955 – After the last Allied troops have left the country, and following the provisions of the Austrian Independence Treaty, Austria declares that it will never join a military alliance. 1955 – Ngô Đình Diệm proclaims himself as President of the newly created Republic of Vietnam. 1956 – Hungarian Revolution: In the towns of Mosonmagyaróvár and Esztergom, Hungarian secret police forces massacre civilians. As rebel strongholds in Budapest hold, fighting spreads throughout the country. 1958 – Pan American Airways makes the first commercial flight of the Boeing 707 from New York City to Paris. 1967 – Mohammad Reza Pahlavi crowns himself Emperor of Iran. 1968 – Space Race: The Soyuz 3 mission achieves the first Soviet space rendezvous. 1977 – Ali Maow Maalin, the last natural case of smallpox, develops a rash in Somalia. The WHO and the CDC consider this date to be the anniversary of the eradication of smallpox, the most spectacular success of vaccination. 1979 – Park Chung Hee, President of South Korea, is assassinated by Korean CIA head Kim Jae-gyu. 1985 – The Australian government returns ownership of Uluru to the local Pitjantjatjara Aboriginals. 1989 – China Airlines Flight 204 crashes after takeoff from Hualien Airport in Taiwan, killing all 54 people on board. 1991 – Three months after the end of the Ten-Day War, the last soldier of the Yugoslav People's Army leaves the territory of the Republic of Slovenia. 1994 – Jordan and Israel sign a peace treaty. 1995 – Mossad agents assassinate Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Fathi Shaqaqi in his hotel in Malta. 1995 – An avalanche hits the Icelandic village of Flateyri, destroying 29 homes and burying 45 people, and killing 20. 1999 – The United Kingdom's House of Lords votes to end the right of most hereditary peers to vote in Britain's upper chamber of Parliament. 2000 – A wave of protests forces Robert Guéï to step down as president after the Ivorian presidential election. 2001 – The United States passes the USA PATRIOT Act into law. 2002 – Approximately 50 Chechen terrorists and 150 hostages die when Russian special forces troops storm a theater building in Moscow, which had been occupied by the terrorists during a musical performance three days before. 2003 – The Cedar Fire, the third-largest wildfire in California history, kills 15 people, consumes 250,000 acres (1,000 km2), and destroys 2,200 homes around San Diego. 2004 – Rockstar Games releases Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas for the PlayStation 2 in North America, which sold 12 million units for the PS2, becoming the console's best-selling video game. 2012 – Microsoft made a public release of Windows 8 and made it available on new PCs. 2015 – A 7.5 magnitude earthquake strikes in the Hindu Kush mountain range in South Asia, killing 399 people and leaving 2,536 people injured.

[denminn]

Faithful Christian Engagement in Politics with Miranda Zapor Cruz | Episode 204

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-wp3mz-16fea3a In this episode, I speak with Miranda Zapor-Cruz, author of “Faithful Politics,” about the role of Christians in the political landscape as the 2024 presidential election approaches. We discuss the challenges of engaging with politics while maintaining spiritual integrity.  Suggested Reading and Listening: 4 Characteristics of Citizens of the…

[speedyposts]

Q&A: Indonesia’s Prabowo Subianto ‘confident’ of election victory

Jakarta, Indonesia – On February 14, more than 204 million Indonesians will have the chance to vote for their new president.

Incumbent Joko Widodo is in his second and final term, and is constitutionally barred from seeking re-election.

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Voters have a choice between three presidential candidates – Anies Baswedan, the former Governor of Jakarta, Ganjar Pranowo, the former Governor of Central Java, and Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto.

Multiple polls indicate Prabowo has a comfortable lead over his competitors.

Prabowo has tried twice to become Indonesia’s president – and lost both times to Widodo.

Since 2019, he has served as defence minister in Widodo’s cabinet.

His running mate is 36-year-old Gibran Raka Bumingraka, the president’s eldest son.

But victory is still not a certainty. If no candidate can secure at least 50 percent of the vote, a second round of voting will be held in June.

While Prabowo is the most popular candidate, he is also polarising. Decades-old allegations of human rights abuses during his time in the military have been raised by rivals and rights organisations.

On the final day of campaigning on Saturday, Prabowo held a rally in the Gelora Bung Karno Stadium in Jakarta, where he addressed thousands of supporters.

Backstage, the 72-year-old met with Al Jazeera Asia Correspondent Jessica Washington for an exclusive interview, sharing his thoughts on why young voters have been drawn to his campaign and how he plans to win over critics.

Al Jazeera: It’s the last day of campaigning. Are you feeling confident that you can win this election in one round?

Prabowo Subianto: All the figures show that way…the grassroots enthusiasm. All the figures show that we will go in one round.

Al Jazeera: The enthusiasm of young people has been a key part of the campaign. What is your message to your young supporters?

Prabowo Subianto: The young today, they are more rational, they are more critical, they are smarter, they sense what is genuine and what is not genuine.

I think they are very concerned about their future, so those that have a good program and good strategy, those that have good commitments, they are the ones that the young can identify with they can support.

Al Jazeera: Is there something specific about your campaign that appeals to young people? Because your opponents might say it’s because of the Tiktok dances, the cartoon posters. Is there a specific policy that appeals to young people?

Prabowo Subianto: My policies are very rational, logical, with a common-sense approach that is actually building on all the work of our predecessors.

Nation-building is not a two year thing, a five-year thing. It’s a period of one generation or two generations.

We have to make use and build on everything that has been built by our predecessors. That’s why people of all strata the majority of them get my message and support us. They realise to build something, you must do it based on strong foundation and then build upon success. Brick by brick, stone by stone.

Al Jazeera: You obviously have very many supporters but there are also some strong critics. If you win this election, you will be their president too. How will you navigate this?

Prabowo Subianto: I will work for the good of Indonesia. Not for a certain segment.

I proved this, when the last election, I lost badly in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) province. But when I became Minister of Defence, I built one of the biggest and best polytechnics there. In the province where I lost.

Do you understand? I don’t believe in thinking short-term, thinking small. I like to think big and long-term.

Al Jazeera: Thinking big picture, how do you perceive Indonesia’s role on the global stage, if you do become president?

Prabowo Subianto: The good luck we inherited from our founding fathers is the philosophy of non-alignment.

Indonesia respects all countries, respects all great powers.

We want to have great relationships with everybody. We don’t want to be joining one bloc against another bloc. Our position is quite unique. We are friends with everybody. In any conflict or competition, we are the ones who can be accepted by all sides.

Al Jazeera: What does Gibran bring to this partnership, in terms of skills and experience?

Prabowo Subianto: More than 50 percent of our voters are below the age of 50. The young, are dynamic, savvy, and they are critical.

If you notice, the fact there is a vice-president under the age of 40, that’s is normal in many countries in the west. In Indonesia it has become some sort of issue, not because he is under 40 but because he is the son of President Joko Widodo, that makes some circles feel bad. But that’s politics. You cannot please everyone all the time.

Al Jazeera: What will Indonesia look like under your presidency?

Prabowo Subianto: I hope Indonesia will be dynamic, economically better-off. But most importantly, I want to alleviate poverty. I want to get rid of hunger. I want to get rid of stunting for Indonesian children. The figures are not so good, at least 25 percent of children are stunted, in the outlying areas. But even in West Java, there are children who do not eat well.

Al Jazeera: It’s one thing to say they will support you in polls, and to show up at campaign events. It’s a different matter when it comes to actually showing up on February 14 and voting. Do you have any concern about the reliability of your supporters?

Prabowo Subianto: From the fervour of my supporters, I think they feel that our team the real hope for them. I am confident they will turn up, they feel they need leaders who can understand their needs, who want to fight for them.

I would tell them, use your power, once every five years you have the power in your hands to choose leaders who will fight for you. If you vote for me, I will defend you and fight for you.

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[mariacallous]

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Sunday she is waiting to decide about her next steps in the new Congress, saying any decision to run for leadership depends on her family and her Democratic colleagues.

"What we want to do is go forward in a very unified way, as we go forward to prepare for the Congress at hand," the California Democrat told CNN's Dana Bash on "State of the Union."

"Nonetheless, a great deal is at stake because we'll be in a presidential election... But none of it will be very much considered until we see what the outcome of all of this is. And there are all kinds of ways to exert influence," she said.

Asked if she'll make a decision before Democrat leadership elections on Nov. 30, Pelosi said, "Of course. Well, you know that I'm not asking anybody — People are campaigning, and that's a beautiful thing. And I'm not asking anyone for anything."

When asked if she believes House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy has what it takes to be House speaker if Republicans win the chamber, Pelosi said she wants to see the results of the election first.

"Let's just get through the election, OK? They haven't won yet. They've been measuring the draperies, they've been putting forth an agenda. They haven't won it yet. After the election is concluded, depending on who was in the majority, there'll be judgments made within their own party, in our own parties, as to how we go forward," Pelosi said. 

Pressed again on whether McCarthy "has it," Pelosi said no.

"Why would I make a judgment about something that may or may not ever happen? No, I don't think he has it," she said. "But that's up to his own people to make a decision as to how they want to be led or otherwise."

Where the election stands: The battle for control of the House is now the biggest unanswered question of this year's midterm elections after Democrats kept their narrow Senate majority. Republicans have won 211 of the 218 seats they'd need to take the majority, according to CNN projections, while Democrats have won 204, with 20 undecided as of Sunday morning. 

Nancy Pelosi:

[becksworldblog-blog]

Week 5 Australian Political Parties’ use of Social Media

In week 5, there was a discussion about politicians and their use of social media and if it reflects through their votes. Social media evolves every few months and has now become a tool to help political parties earn votes as they are able to be in direct contact with the public. 

Jericho discusses how in America “the Obama team’s use of social media during the 2008 election campaign was a major focus of its strategy” (2012, p. 255). This is an example of the ability of social networking and bringing people together (Jericho 2012, p. 255). Similarly, this was also the case for Donald Trump when he won the election in 2017. Young discovered that 74 per cent of Americans went online during the 2008 Presidential Election, 13 per cent of American adults use social media to create their own political content and 14 per cent utilise social networking sites for political information (2010, p. 204)

Young continues to discuss how in Australia, the utilisation of social media for political purposes is not as widespread compared to the US (2010, p. 205). Instead of social media, Political Parties have created websites in which users can search online and get information directly from their page about their views and values. Major News Outlets in Australia have gone online and begun blog posts with interactive tools. This system is efficient as it is the most trustworthy as it is direct from the source. With social media nowadays, it can be difficult filtering through what is accurate information and what is filled with lies. 

Is it a positive leap? As the world evolves and moves forward into an online society it can be considered a positive leap. This is because they can reach a wider audience, particularly a younger audience. It can be the beginning of educating them in Australian politics from a young age so then by the time they turn 18, they are well informed about Australian politics and have their own opinions about it. We are heading towards being always online which can be quite worrisome, but if it is a positive outcome for politicians then so be it. However, it won’t be positive for all politicians as some may encounter hateful comments. That is one of the negatives about politicians taking their parties online, those that are against that particular party may decide to leave some hateful comments. This can lead to leaving a bad impression amongst the public if that comment gets attention. Even though Social Media is efficient and easy access, those utilising it for political reasons would have to watch what they post about as it can haunt them later on in life, or have a serious backlash.

References:

Jericho, G 2012, Rise of the Fifth Estate: Social Media and Blogging in Australian Politics, 1st edn, Scribe Publications Pty Ltd., Victoria. 

Young, S 2010, How Australia Decides: Election Reporting and the Media, 1st edn, Cambridge University Press, New York.

Donald Trump 2016, ‘Donald Trump’s Tweet’ [image], in Twitter, viewed 24 January 2019,

< https://www.theprogressivesinfluence.com/2017/07/trumpgop-voter-commission-which-hunt.html >.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

My 4th installment of the 2023/24 Election Cycle Projections are now out, posted on Threads rather than on X (formerly Twitter). Maps are based off of 270ToWin.

2024 Presidential Map: Harris (D) v. Trump (R) (247 Harris, 219 Trump, 72 Tossup; 195 ECVs in play): Too close to call, but Harris has advantage (65% chance)

Likely R: ME-02, TX

Lean R: FL

Tilt R: none

Tossup: AZ, GA, NC, PA, WI

Tilt D: MI, NV

Lean D: NE-02

Likely D: ME, NM, VA

Changes from 09.08.2024:

Lean R > Likely R: TX

Tilt R > Lean R: FL

Safe R > Likely R: IA

Likely R > Safe R: AK

Tossup > Tilt D: NV

2024 US Senate (49 Dems, 51 GOP; 11 seats in play): Republicans gain majority (82% chance)

Safe R: WV [+R GAIN]

Likely R: MO

Lean R: FL, TX

Tilt R: MT [+R GAIN], NE

Tossup: VP Seat

Tilt D: OH

Lean D: MI

Likely D: AZ, NV, PA, WI

Changes from 09.08.2024:

Tilt R > Lean R: FL, TX

Likely R > Tilt R: NE

Likely D > Lean D: MI

Lean D > Likely D: NV

Tossup > Tilt R: MT

2024 US House (204 Dems, 204 GOP, 23 Tossups; 79 seats in play): Too close to call, but Democrats favored to gain majority (69% chance).

Competitive House Seats:

Changes from 09.08.2024:

Safe R > Likely R: AZ-02, SC-01

Likely R > Safe R: CO-05

Tilt R > Tossup: IA-03

Lean R > Tossup: IA-01

Tossup > Tilt D: NE-02

Tossup > Lean D: NM-02

Tilt D > Likely D: NY-22

Tilt D > Tossup: ME-02

Lean D > Likely D: NH-02, PA-17

Lean D > Tilt D: AK-AL

Likely D > Safe D: KS-03

2024 Gubernatorial Projections:

#DEGov: Safe D

#INGov: Likely R

#MOGov: Safe R

#MTGov: Safe R

#NCGov: Safe D

#NDGov: Safe R

#NHGov: Tossup

#UTGov: Safe R

#VTGov: Safe R

#WVGov: Safe R

#WAGov: Safe D

Changes from 09.08.2024:

Safe R > Likely R: IN

Likely R > Safe R: VT

Lean D > Safe D: NC

Next updates: October 28th, and a final one on November 4th

Summary:

The House is too close to call, but Democrats are favored to gain the House.

Republicans are likely favored to gain the Senate.

Kamala Harris (D) is the mild favorite to win the Presidential election.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

Why Markets Should Be Skeptical of Jair Bolsonaro

The leader in polls for Brazil’s October election does not have a pro-business past.

Since 1991, retired army captain Jair Bolsonaro has been a lonely voice in Brazil’s Congress, expressing nostalgia for the country’s military dictatorship, attacking human rights, and insulting women, black people, and LGBT people.

Yet today a Bolsonaro presidency is a real possibility. He leads all major polls for Brazil’s presidential election (assuming former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is barred from running). He’s running the same campaign that Donald Trump ran, in which he is the outsider and everyone else is a corrupt insider. Indeed, Bolsonaro’s antagonistic position toward Brazil’s political establishment is proving a winning formula, especially after an endless wave of corruption scandals has left voters tired and looking for a new kind of leader.

While human rights organizations are terrified by the possibility of a president who despises the core principles of a Brazilian Constitution designed to curb authoritarian rule, Brazil’s investors and business class envision a much different – and friendlier – outcome.

A recent survey by Brazilian investment broker XP Investimentos with 204 Brazilian investors found that 48 percent of the respondents believe Bolsonaro will win. Surprisingly, surveyed investors did not seem concerned by this possibility. More than half of those surveyed thought Brazil’s currency would appreciate and that stock markets would rise with a Bolsonaro win.

Investors’ optimism about Bolsonaro is largely driven by the fact that his main economic advisor is Paulo Guedes, a University of Chicago-educated free-market enthusiast. Guedes is perceived as someone who could play the same role as Chile's “Chicago Boys,” who implemented neoliberal reforms under Augusto Pinochet even as the military dictatorship continued committing hideous human rights violations.

The reality is more complicated and Guedes might not have that much influence in a Bolsonaro administration. Even though Bolsonaro portrays himself as an outsider, his record in Congress over 20 years provides evidence that he is not exactly sympathetic to the free market.

Continue reading.

[brookstonalmanac]

Events 10.26 (after 1940)

1942 – World War II: In the Battle of the Santa Cruz Islands during the Guadalcanal Campaign, one U.S. aircraft carrier is sunk and another carrier is heavily damaged, while two Japanese carriers and one cruiser are heavily damaged. 1944 – World War II: The Battle of Leyte Gulf ends with an overwhelming American victory. 1947 – Partition of India: The Maharaja of Kashmir and Jammu signs the Instrument of Accession with India, beginning the Indo-Pakistani War of 1947–1948 and the Kashmir conflict. 1955 – After the last Allied troops have left the country, and following the provisions of the Austrian Independence Treaty, Austria declares that it will never join a military alliance. 1955 – Ngô Đình Diệm proclaims himself as President of the newly created Republic of Vietnam. 1956 – Hungarian Revolution: In the towns of Mosonmagyaróvár and Esztergom, Hungarian secret police forces massacre civilians. As rebel strongholds in Budapest hold, fighting spreads throughout the country. 1958 – Pan American Airways makes the first commercial flight of the Boeing 707 from New York City to Paris. 1967 – Mohammad Reza Pahlavi crowns himself Emperor of Iran. 1968 – Space Race: The Soyuz 3 mission achieves the first Soviet space rendezvous. 1977 – Ali Maow Maalin, the last natural case of smallpox, develops a rash in Somalia. The World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention consider this date to be the anniversary of the eradication of smallpox, the most spectacular success of vaccination. 1979 – Park Chung Hee, President of South Korea, is assassinated by Korean CIA head Kim Jae-gyu. 1985 – The Australian government returns ownership of Uluru to the local Pitjantjatjara Aboriginals. 1989 – China Airlines Flight 204 crashes after takeoff from Hualien Airport in Taiwan, killing all 54 people on board. 1991 – Three months after the end of the Ten-Day War, the last soldier of the Yugoslav People's Army leaves the territory of the Republic of Slovenia. 1994 – Jordan and Israel sign a peace treaty. 1995 – Mossad agents assassinate Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Fathi Shaqaqi in his hotel in Malta. 1995 – An avalanche hits the Icelandic village of Flateyri, destroying 29 homes and burying 45 people, and killing 20. 1999 – The United Kingdom's House of Lords votes to end the right of most hereditary peers to vote in Britain's upper chamber of Parliament. 2000 – A wave of protests forces Robert Guéï to step down as president after the Ivorian presidential election. 2001 – The United States passes the USA PATRIOT Act into law. 2002 – Approximately 50 Chechen terrorists and 150 hostages die when Russian special forces troops storm a theater building in Moscow, which had been occupied by the terrorists during a musical performance three days before. 2003 – The Cedar Fire, the third-largest wildfire in California history, kills 15 people, consumes 250,000 acres (1,000 km2), and destroys 2,200 homes around San Diego. 2004 – Rockstar Games releases Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas for the PlayStation 2 in North America, which sold 12 million units for the PS2, becoming the console's best-selling video game. 2012 – Microsoft made a public release of Windows 8 and made available it on new PCs. 2015 – A 7.5 magnitude earthquake strikes in the Hindu Kush mountain range in South Asia, killing 399 people and leaving 2,536 people injured. 2017 – At a level crossing of the Hanko–Hyvinkää railway line, a passenger train collides with an off-road truck of the Nyland Brigade in Raseborg, Finland; four people die and 11 are injured.

[patriotnewsdaily]

New Post has been published on PatriotNewsDaily.com

New Post has been published on http://patriotnewsdaily.com/red-wave-out-of-27-toss-up-congress-seats-republicans-won-27/

Red Wave? Out of 27 “Toss-Up” Congress Seats, Republicans Won 27

It’s no wonder that Trump voters have their suspicions about the outcome of the presidential election. As the votes are tallied and the results certified, it’s becoming clearer by the day that the 2020 election was a boon for the GOP. Rare (to the point of unprecedented) are elections in which one party wins the top of the ticket while the other one wins the downballot. But that’s exactly what appears to have happened this time around. We’re not really holding out any hope that Sidney Powell and the rest of them are going to overturn this election, but like we said: In the fact of a Red Wave like this one, you can’t blame people for being awfully suspicious.

From the Daily Wire:

Ahead of the 2020 election, Cook Political Report listed 27 races as “toss-ups,” meaning they were too close to predict one way or the other. Republicans won all 27.

That’s not a typo. Despite being assured by that conservatism was about to drown beneath an impending “blue wave,” Republicans won every single close race.

Republicans also won all 26 races deemed “leaning or likely Republican,” and even picked up 7 of the 36 seats listed as “leaning or likely Democrat.”

Despite nearly unanimous predictions that Democrats would further cement control of the House, they now hold just a 218-204 advantage, with Republicans poised to pick up more seats, as they lead in 8 of the remaining 13 races.

In addition to lending credence to complaints of a rigged election, these results reveal in crystal clarity the broken polls that the media is relying on to “predict” our political outcomes. Pollsters were not only certain that Joe Biden would prevail in the presidential election, they were confident that the House would expand its Democratic majority and even, in all likelihood, that the Senate would be flipped blue. There is still a small chance that the latter may come to pass, but in all other respects, the 2020 polling was even worse than it was in 2016. Yes, Biden won and yes, Dems held onto the House, but it was all much, much closer than any mainstream polling company predicted.

The House wins of Republicans (to say nothing of the historic vote that Trump received) are not only things to be pondered when considering the validity of the election, they prove conclusively that Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden have nothing that could be termed as a “mandate.” This goes double for the Socialist Left, whose calls for defunding police probably delivered Democrats a worse election than they would have otherwise had. If the Dems refuse to see this reality and try to push through a radical agenda over the next two years, they will pay for it dearly in 2022.

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

One of the many reasons I think New England is great1 is that its elections are conducted — and its results are reported — at the city/town level, not the county level. That lets psephologists like me study them in greater detail, and one election I’m particularly interested in is the just-concluded 2018 U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts.

For Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the race was little more than a tune-up for the 2020 presidential campaign she is now gearing up for2; she breezed to re-election by 24 points (although it was arguably an underwhelming performance given the state’s blue hue). But we can look at who voted for Warren in 2018 for clues as to who might vote for her in 2020 — both in the primary and, if she gets there, in the general election.

This isn’t as simple as just looking at which areas Warren won — because partisanship predicted the 2018 election results so well, all that would tell us is that she does well in the most Democratic places. Instead, you have to look at how Warren performed relative to other Democrats. Since she is vying to succeed Hillary Clinton as the Democratic presidential nominee, I used Clinton’s 2016 general-election performance as my point of comparison. If Warren did better than Clinton in a given town, it suggests that its voters were more enthusiastic about her than they were about Clinton. If Clinton did better than Warren, it indicates that those voters were relatively cool toward the state’s senior senator.

I calculated the difference between Warren’s and Clinton’s vote shares for all 351 cities and towns in Massachusetts as well as the 255 voting precincts in the city of Boston. Armed with demographic statistics about each of those jurisdictions (plus my knowledge as a Massachusetts native), I spent a few days looking for patterns in the data. Here’s what I found.

1. She’s weak in elite suburbs

One clear trend is that Warren underperformed in extremely wealthy, highly college-educated communities. In 2013, The Washington Post conducted a nationwide analysis that identified the wealthiest and most educated zip codes in the U.S., labeled “Super Zips” (building upon an earlier analysis by political scientist Charles Murray). Modifying the Post’s Super Zip calculations to look only at Massachusetts,3 I identified the state’s 12 upper-crustiest cities and towns. The list is a veritable where’s-where of elite Boston suburbs — and Warren did worse than Clinton in all 12.

Warren underwhelmed in ‘Super Zips’

How Hillary Clinton (in the 2016 presidential race) and Elizabeth Warren (in the 2018 Senate race) performed in the 12 wealthiest and best-educated communities in Massachusetts

Vote Share City/Town Median Income* % with Bachelor’s Clinton Warren Diff. Wellesley $177k 82.7% 71% 64% -7% Weston 197 82.4 66 60 -6 Medfield 154 72.5 59 55 -4 Dover 204 82.7 57 54 -3 Needham 142 74.6 70 68 -3 Sherborn 171 82.9 67 64 -3 Winchester 152 75.5 63 61 -2 Sudbury 171 78.5 69 66 -2 Wayland 167 82.6 72 70 -2 Andover 143 73.7 58 57 -2 Lexington 162 81.6 77 75 -2 Carlisle 171 84.7 69 68 -1 Statewide 74 42.1 60 60 0

*By household

Communities qualified as Super Zips if they scored at least a 95 in our calculation, which averaged each community’s percentile in education with its percentile in income to get a score from 0 to 100.

Sources: 2013-2017 American Community Survey, Massachusetts secretary of the commonwealth

Although I’d like to include some of the more well-to-do sections of Boston in this list, no income or education data is available for individual precincts within Boston. To get at least a rough sense of how those neighborhoods voted, however, we can use past election results — specifically, the precinct’s margin shift from 2012 to 2016 presidential results — to find likely Super Zips within the city. (As has been thoroughly documented here and elsewhere, affluent, well-educated Mitt Romney voters flocked to Clinton in 2016.) Seven of the eight precincts that shifted the most toward Clinton are in Beacon Hill or the Back Bay, two of Boston’s poshest neighborhoods.4 Warren lagged behind Clinton in these precincts by anywhere from 2 points to 9 points, confirming our statewide findings.

Of course, after Clinton won upper-class areas by eye-popping margins in 2016, some reversion to the mean is expected. However, it also makes sense that Warren would be unpopular among wealthy voters, given her career-long crusade against big business. It certainly appears that social and economic elites are not part of Warren’s base.

2. She could win back Obama-Trump voters

So where are the voters who love Warren? Here are the 10 cities and towns where she outran Clinton by the biggest margin:

Places that swung toward Trump still like Warren

The 10 Massachusetts cities and towns where Elizabeth Warren (in the 2018 Senate race) outperformed Hillary Clinton (in the 2016 presidential race) by the highest margin

Vote Share City/Town Median Income % with Bachelor’s 2012 vs. 2016 Margin Shift Clinton Warren Diff. Hawley $66k 39.6% R+12 51% 67% +16% Middlefield 75 26.0 R+30 51 67 +15 Cummington 53 43.2 R+11 60 72 +12 Wendell 43 45.9 R+13 69 81 +12 Sandisfield 69 37.3 R+17 53 64 +11 Peru 69 24.5 R+30 50 60 +11 Otis 70 32.5 R+19 47 57 +10 Leverett 87 64.9 R+3 77 87 +10 Tyringham 86 49.3 D+11 69 78 +9 North Adams 39 24.5 R+20 64 73 +9 Statewide 74 42.1 D+4 60 60 0

*By household

Sources: 2013-2017 American Community Survey, Massachusetts secretary of the commonwealth

They have a lot in common. They are all small towns in Western Massachusetts. With a few exceptions, they have incomes lower than the statewide average. Most of them have fewer college graduates than average as well. And Trump improved upon Romney’s margin in all but one of them.

Just like other white,5 blue-collar areas in the rest of the country, Western Massachusetts broke with longstanding Democratic tradition in the 2016 election. Warren’s ability to match or even exceed President Obama’s 2012 performance in these areas suggests that she might be the right candidate to persuade Obama-Trump voters to once again vote Democratic in the 2020 general election. In addition, a majority of Democrats in most of these towns — some of which are fairly bohemian — voted for Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Democratic primary. That’s a pretty good indication that Warren may also find a primary base among economically struggling communities that could be receptive to her populist message.

3. Young people seem to like her

Young people generally make up a small share of the electorate, so it’s hard to draw any firm conclusions about how they might feel about Warren based on Massachusetts election results. So let’s stick to what we know: Warren exhibited moderate strength in Massachusetts’s 10 youngest municipalities.6

Warren’s youth movement

How Elizabeth Warren (in the 2018 Senate race) performed compared with Hillary Clinton (in the 2016 presidential race) in the 10 youngest communities in Massachusetts

Vote Share City/Town Median Age Clinton Warren Diff. Amherst 21.4 83% 89% +6% Sunderland 31.3 71 76 +5 Aquinnah 25.6 82 86 +4 Somerville 31.5 83 87 +4 Williamstown 29.9 81 84 +3 Cambridge 30.4 88 91 +3 Springfield 32.9 74 75 +1 Boston 32.0 81 81 0 Lawrence 31.4 82 81 -1 Wenham 24.7 56 54 -3 Statewide 39.4 60 60 0

Sources: 2013-2017 American Community Survey, Massachusetts secretary of the commonwealth

In six of them, Warren outran Clinton by 3 points or more, and in three of the other four, more than half the population is nonwhite, which is likely far more important in explaining the communities’ electoral preferences than age is. (The 10th town, Wenham, is an easily-explained-away exception: It’s an elite suburb that appears on the list mostly because a local college7 drops its median age.) Although the sample size is small, this does suggest Warren has a natural constituency in and around college towns, based on her overperformance in places like Amherst8 (+6 points), Cambridge9 (+3 points) and Williamstown10 (+3 points). The Boston precincts where Warren outpaced Clinton the most were also disproportionately located in the city’s Allston and Brighton neighborhoods, which stretch from Boston College to Boston University; as of the last Census, more than half the population there was between the ages of 20 and 34.

4. Nonwhite voters are a wild card

There’s one demographic variable we haven’t mentioned yet, and it’s a big one in a Democratic primary: race. Both the places where Warren did especially well and the places where she did especially poorly were overwhelmingly white.11 How did Warren’s vote share compare with Clinton’s in Massachusetts’s predominantly nonwhite communities (yes, they do exist)? Overall, the differences were minimal, implying that Warren is no better, nor any worse, at wooing these voters than Clinton was.

Warren does OK in diverse places

How Elizabeth Warren (in the 2018 Senate race) performed compared with Hillary Clinton (in the 2016 presidential race) in the 12 Massachusetts communities where less than half the population is white

Share of Population Vote Share City/Town White Hispanic Black Asian Clinton Warren Diff. Aquinnah* 40% 0% 0% 1% 82% 86% +4% Everett 46 23 19 6 67 69 +2 Malden 47 9 16 24 70 72 +2 Lowell 49 20 7 21 64 65 +1 Springfield 33 44 19 2 74 75 +1 Lynn 38 39 12 8 67 67 +1 Randolph 36 8 38 12 75 76 +1 Boston 45 19 23 9 81 81 0 Holyoke 43 51 3 2 70 70 0 Brockton 37 11 39 2 71 71 0 Chelsea 22 66 6 3 79 79 0 Lawrence 16 79 2 2 82 81 -1 Statewide 73 11 7 6 60 60 0

*42 percent of Aquinnah residents are Native American.

Sources: 2013-2017 American Community Survey, Massachusetts secretary of the commonwealth

We can take a closer look at how Warren performed among Hispanic, black and Asian voters specifically by zooming in to the precinct level in Boston, whose neighborhoods remain fairly segregated by race.12 This data reveals that Warren may hold special appeal among nonwhite voters after all — specifically, Hispanic voters. Warren did between 1 and 6 points better than Clinton in all 10 Boston precincts where, as of 2010, at least 50 percent of residents were Hispanic. At the same time, the precinct data also seems to confirm that black voters are truly agnostic about Warren. On average, Warren did only 1 point better than Clinton in Boston’s 56 majority-black precincts, with very little precinct-by-precinct deviation. It was hard to arrive at a conclusion about Asian voters; Boston had no majority-Asian precincts in 2010. The three precincts where Asians constituted a plurality of the population differed dramatically from one another. In one, Warren did 2 points better than Clinton; in the other two, Warren did 4 and 10 points worse.13

People of color cast about 40 percent of all votes in the 2016 Democratic primary, so anyone who hopes to be the party’s 2020 nominee must win a healthy share of nonwhite voters. On the plus side for Warren, it’s a good sign that her 2018 performance among these voters wasn’t actively bad, given that Sanders (whose natural constituencies overlap with Warren’s) struggled so much to win minority voters in the 2016 primary; indeed, her campaign managers ought to find her recent performance with Hispanic voters downright encouraging. But on the other hand, Warren has also shown no particular knack for connecting with black and Asian voters. She has plenty of other strengths as a candidate — including her ideology and fundraising ability — but fostering more of a base among nonwhite voters could give her the complete package.

[15minuteswithlincoln]

Episode 204: Dunn 2020

Subscribe: iTunes | SoundCloud

Abe delivers his pitch for how Tim can win the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

Listen here: https://soundcloud.com/user-675993016/dunn-2020

15 Minutes with Lincoln · Dunn 2020

[inkovsky]

Hong Kong stocks failed to take up the momentum of Wednesday's rebound and fell with the outside markets yesterday. The Hang Seng Index opened lower by 204 points and then the decline intensified. It fell at most 517 points to 23,225 points, a four-month low since May 29, and closed at 23,311 points, down 431 points, and fell 1,144 points in four trading days. The Hang Seng Technology Index closed at 7,054 points, down 244 points. The main board turnover was HK$117.1 billion.

The decline of Hong Kong stocks was mainly driven by technology stocks and financial stocks. After seeing the low of 21,139 in March, the Hang Seng Index once rebounded to the high of 26,782 in early July, and the low of 23,225 yesterday, which just pulled back the rising wave of fibo 0.618. As the new economy stocks are dragged down by the external environment, the earnings outlook of the old economy stocks is sluggish, and the Hong Kong stocks are unable to rise. In October, the Hang Seng Index has a chance to reach the May low of 22,519 points. The market outlook depends on the trend of US stocks and the US presidential election.

The US labor data has disappointed the market, and the US Congress has not yet reached a consensus on a new round of rescue plans. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius issued a report saying that the United States lacks fiscal stimulus measures and halved its economic forecast for the fourth quarter of this year. Investors are worried about the economic outlook. U.S. technology stocks continue to adjust, the market continues to pay attention to the tensions in Sino-U.S. relations, and the U.S. presidential election is also subject to major variables. It is expected that market conditions will be more volatile before November. The next three presidential election debates are expected to cause market turbulence.

The performance of US stocks remained stable last night, and the three major indexes recovered their early losses and closed well. The Dow once fell by 226 points at most, and closed at 26,815 points, up 52 points. The S&P index closed at 3,246 points, up 9 points. The Nasdaq closed at 10,672 points, up 39 points.