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whatsarasaid · 3 years

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title: the interview. fandom: control. rating: general audiences. word count: approx. 1100. characters: dr. casper darling, jesse faden, dylan faden.

Ordinary, Maine.

Darling loved it. The name. It was overly on-the-nose, bringing him a strange childish delight. The only thing that could have made it better was if it were Wisconsin or something. Cheese curds and cows and Midwest monotony would have further sharpened the contrast.

Though, judging by the sleepiness, this particular New England town wasn’t too far off. The Federal-style architecture gave it a sense of primness it had no right to possess. The dilapidated gas station on the corner certainly took away from the red brick and cream eaves. Somewhat Idyllic But Mostly Boring Until Very Recently, MI, he renamed it in his head. If the place still wanted to be literal with its naming conventions, things would have to change.

Darling chunked open the metal door of the school, case files and morning coffee in hand. Their makeshift headquarters was comprised of hijacked teachers’ desks and heavy equipment crates. Personnel was busy scribbling and typing, diligently working to solve. Twenty-four hours straight of swabbing surfaces, collecting samples, and snapping pictures, but the question of what caused the AWE remained unanswered.

Time to pick through the human data.

Primary sources were rich with information, responding to direct questions with direct answers. The quantitative—statistics, algorithms—gave scientific discovery validity and generalizability. But it was through the qualitative—observation, interviews—that theories were born. Unfortunately, every adult in Ordinary up and vanished rapture-style, meaning all witnesses were under sixteen. And likely, new orphans.

Darling knew absolutely nothing about children, his work was his offspring, but he knew the devastation an AWE could bring. He caught sight of the kids through the gym windows yesterday. They were sitting on rows of military cots with their khaki blankets and emergency Dopp kits, waiting until they could be questioned by the FBC and processed by the Office of Children and Family Services. None of their personal belongings could be released until they had been screened for possible Altered Items or OOPs.

These interviews would be undoubtedly bleak.

The first subjects were the Faden siblings. An agent reported they’d began frantically babbling about a landfill the moment the FBC showed up at their door and so were moved to the front of the line.

Follow the strangeness.

That was how this worked.

Darling frowned at his lab coat, wrinkled from the drive. White coats held power. Sometimes inciting trust, but other times ire. Didn’t most people like doctors? Hopefully, the children would. Even if he was the research kind. He straightened his bowtie.

He found the Fadens in the kindergarten classroom, where they'd been told to wait. They weren’t as young as he thought they'd be, but what had he expected? Infants? He needed to brush up on his human development. They sat in primary-colored bean bags. The younger, the boy, was staring out a window, picking at the bag’s seams. The older, the girl, was stiff beside him, sharp eyes clicking to Darling when he walked in.

Darling gave them what he considered to be his most unoffending smile.

The girl frowned.

Darling scanned for a chair but found somebody had robbed the teacher’s desk of its adult-sized one. He resorted to dragging a miniature plastic stool in front of the kids and crunching himself onto it, knees almost to his chest, coffee and case files an awkward pile in his lap. “Good morning. I lead the scientists studying your home. I hear you have some interesting information for me.”

The boy turned and blinked at him with owlish eyes.

It was the girl who spoke first, her voice quiet but resolute. Darling liked the cut of her jib. “We know what caused everything. We found a slide projector in the dump, after it got bigger.”

"The dump got bigger?"

"Yeah, bigger but the same. Deeper?"

Darling couldn’t put his coffee down fast enough. He ruffled in his chest coat pocket for a pen and scooched the stool closer, inciting two high-pitched squeals from the rubber-knobbed legs, eager to take notes. Silly of him to not bring a tape recorder. “Mm-hm, yes, go on.”

The girl eyed him, cagey again, “Each slide took us to, um, different places. The places weren’t here.”

"'Here' as in Ordinary?"

“No. Earth.”

Likely other dimensions. “How did that work?"

"We'd put in a slide, project it onto a wall, and just go through."

Definitely other dimensions. "Can you describe these other places?"

"They were all really weird. Some were scary."

The boy interrupted, “Do you know where our parents are?”

The girl snapped her mouth shut and wrinkled her nose, looking as if she were forcing back the sudden sting of tears.

“No,” Darling said gently. As he noted earlier: bleak. “I don’t. But that’s the thing about the scientific process: it can lead to all sorts of discoveries. Maybe even the location of your parents. I can’t make any promises, though.”

The boy nodded solemnly, “Tom thought the Not-Mother took them.”

Darling’s mind reeled as he scribbled notes. 'Not-Mother' had been mentioned in the police reports. Was it an entity they found through the alternate dimensions in the slide projector? Their nickname for something else? What motives did it have in taking the adults? If any? Dear God, so many questions all at once, branching and vining in a thousand directions.

"Where's Tom? In the gym? I'd like to speak with him, too."

The children exchanged looks but said nothing.

Darling peeked at his wristwatch. They would need more than their scheduled fifteen minutes. Much more. He needed to call Trench and deploy a team to the local landfill ASAP. Before anyone else got sucked into a different dimension and met this ‘Not-Mother.’ They should probably just transport the whole site to the Oldest House for safety since it evidently...shifts. What an endeavor. He’d have to lead that. Someone else—a child psychologist, probably—should finish interviewing the kids. They'd better know how to navigate the delicacies of their experience while retrieving the needed information.

As if on cue, the boy’s stomach warbled a growl. Some positive reinforcement might be in order before Darling subjected them to a marathon of questions. A Paranatural Aptitude Assessment would be wise, too. He had a feeling he’d be getting to know the Fadens quite well.

Darling clapped the file shut, “I haven’t had breakfast yet. Have you?”

The children shook their heads no.

“Let’s go get some cereal,” he said, gathering his pile and inelegantly pulling himself up from the stool, “Or muffins. Do you like muffins?"

The boy followed.

The girl did not.

“Come on,” he called to her as he jerked his head toward the door, “After we eat, I'm going to introduce you to more people who can help. You’ll be having lots more talks with them.”

She finally trailed after.

But not without giving him one final glance.

#control #control game #control remedy #casper darling #jesse faden #dylan faden #ficlet #writing: mine #pardon me as i bend some canon

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theliberaltony · 4 years

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

President Trump’s quest to win a second term is not in good shape. He entered Tuesday night’s debate with roughly a 7- or 8-point deficit in national polls, putting him further behind at this stage of the race than any other candidate since Bob Dole in 1996.1

If we look at potential tipping-point states, the race is a bit closer, but not that much closer. After a couple of strong polls for Joe Biden earlier this week in Pennsylvania — the state that’s currently most likely to decide the election — Trump now trails there by 5 to 6 points. He’s down by about 7 points in Michigan and Wisconsin, meanwhile. Those states, along with Minnesota, Maine and New Hampshire — where Biden has also polled strongly lately — suggest that Biden is winning back some of the Obama-Trump white working-class voters who flocked to Trump four years ago. Indeed, Biden is as close to winning South Carolina or Alaska as Trump is to winning Michigan and Wisconsin, based on recent polls of those states.

At a time when Trump desperately needed a boost, the debate probably didn’t help him either — it may have hurt him. Every scientific poll we’ve seen had Trump losing the debate, some by narrow margins and some by wide ones.

That includes the poll FiveThirtyEight conducted with Ipsos, which surveyed the same group of voters before and after the debate. While the poll didn’t show a massive swing — most voters stuck to their initial preferences — more voters did rate Biden’s performance favorably, and Biden gained ground relative to Trump based on the number of voters who said they were certain to vote for him, roughly tantamount to a 3-point swing toward Biden in head-to-head polls.

Now, I’m not predicting this will happen, but if Biden’s national lead were to expand to 9 or 10 points, which is consistent with the sorts of polling bounces we’ve seen in the past for candidates who were perceived to win debates — especially challengers debating an incumbent for the first time — Trump’s situation could become quite desperate.

To be clear, none of this means that Trump’s chances are kaput. As of this writing, our forecast still gives him around a 21 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. That’s not great, but it’s a lot better than zero.

But it’s possible Trump’s chances may decline further after post-debate polling begins to roll into our forecast. Furthermore, the mere passage of time helps Biden in our model, because every day that Trump doesn’t gain ground is a day when his fate becomes slightly more sealed. (Lots of people have already voted!) Case in point: In an election held today — Trump has no more time to make up ground — his chances would be 9 percent, not 21 percent, according to our forecast.

Then again, there are some possibilities that our model doesn’t account for, and they have become more pertinent after Trump has repeatedly refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power and declined to commit to respecting the election results. As we wrote when launching the forecast:

We assume that there are reasonable efforts to allow eligible citizens to vote and to count all legal ballots, and that electors are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state. The model also does not account for the possibility of extraconstitutional shenanigans by Trump or by anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted.

Let’s back up for a second. This is FiveThirtyEight’s fourth presidential election campaign. And in the previous three, there was at least some question about who was ahead in the stretch run of the race. John McCain, for instance, briefly pulled ahead of Barack Obama following the 2008 Republican convention, and Obama didn’t really solidify his lead until early October. In 2012, national polls were very tight between Obama and Mitt Romney following the first presidential debate, and remained fairly tight thereafter (although Obama always maintained an Electoral College edge). And people forget how close the 2016 race was for stretches of the campaign; it was not such a huge upset. In fact, Hillary Clinton led by only 1.4 points in our national polling average heading into the first debate that year.

But there isn’t any of that ambiguity this time. Since we launched our general election polling averages on June 18, Biden has never led by less than 6.6 points nationally. Literally only one national poll — a Rasmussen Reports poll that put Trump ahead by less than a full percentage point — has shown Trump leading by any margin during that period. It’s been an exceptionally stable race.

But, amazingly, that hasn’t really shaken people’s confidence in Trump’s ability to win. In our own poll with Ipsos, we found respondents thought Biden and Trump had roughly equally likely chances of winning. And maybe that boils down to three perpetual sources of anxiety I hear in conversation with liberal friends or liberal readers:

Trump could win the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote by a wide margin.

There could be a large polling error in Trump’s favor.

Trump could somehow steal the election.

All three are legitimate sources of concern for Biden backers. The first two are relatively easy to quantify, however. Indeed, the whole purpose of a model like FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast is to answer questions like those. The third one, however, is harder to get a handle on, so let’s talk about No. 1 and 2 first..

The Electoral College could still help Trump, but it only goes so far

The possibility of an Electoral College, popular vote split remains a point in Trump’s favor. In fact, there’s an 11 percent chance that Trump wins the Electoral College but not the popular vote in our forecast (but less than a 1 percent chance the other way around). At the same time, Biden’s strength in the Upper Midwest relative to Clinton’s — at least, if polls are correct there — potentially mitigates this disadvantage to some extent. The table below shows Biden’s probability of winning the Electoral College given various popular vote margins, according to our forecast as of Wednesday afternoon. And as you can see, Biden is only truly safe to win the Electoral College once he has a popular vote margin of 5 points or more! But, he’s a fairly heavy favorite with a 3- to 5-point margin, and has roughly break-even odds with a 2- to 3-point margin.

Biden’s favored, if he wins the popular vote by +2 to +3 points

Chances of Biden winning the Electoral College under different popular vote scenarios, according to the FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast, as of Sept. 30

POPULAR VOTE MARGIN scenarios Biden’s chances of winning the ELECTORAL COLLEGE Biden +6 to Biden +7 >99% Biden +5 to Biden +6 98 Biden +4 to Biden +5 93 Biden +3 to Biden +4 77 Biden +2 to Biden +3 54 Biden +1 to Biden +2 29 TIE to Biden +1 11 Trump +1 to TIE 3 Trump +2 to Trump +1 <1

So, for practical purposes, you can take Biden’s lead in national polls and subtract 2 or 2.5 points from it to infer his margin in tipping-point states. In other words, if he’s ahead by around 7.5 points in national polls, that’s more like the equivalent of a 5-point lead in the Electoral College. That’s still a reasonably large advantage; empirically, it’s not that easy to overcome a 5-point deficit at this stage of the race.

A big polling error could help Trump … or Biden

One of the misconceptions I hear about FiveThirtyEight’s forecast is that “it assumes that polls are right.” Actually, in some sense the whole purpose of the forecast is to estimate the chance that the polls are wrong. In 2016, the polls did show Clinton ahead, but between tight margins in tipping-point states and the large number of undecided voters, there was a fairly high probability — around 30 percent, according to our forecast — that Trump was going to win anyway.

So while a polling error is possible — indeed, our forecast assumes there’s likely additional error this year because of an uptick in mail voting — it would still take a bigger error than in 2016 for Trump to win.

Assume that current polls hold until Election Day, and subtract 3 points from Biden’s margin in every state (roughly the average error in swing state polls in 2016) … Biden still wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin fairly comfortably, and therefore, the Electoral College; he’d also be a slight favorite in Arizona. And as our friends at the Upshot have calculated, even if you had a polling error of the exact same magnitude in the exact same states as in 2016, Biden would still win, albeit narrowly.

Of course, nothing intrinsically rules out a larger polling error. We had one in 1948 — when Dewey didn’t defeat Truman, after all — and in 1980, when Ronald Reagan won in an epic landslide instead of the narrow margin that polls predicted.

But there’s no guarantee such an error would favor Trump. Historically, the direction of polling bias has not been predictable from cycle to cycle; the same polls that underestimated Trump in 2016 tended to underestimate Obama and Democrats in 2012, for instance. If anything, to the extent there are polling errors, they sometimes come in the opposite direction of what the conventional wisdom expects.

I want to spend more time on this topic in the coming days, so I won’t go on at too much length here. But for now, know that a 7-point Biden lead on Election Day could, indeed, turn into a 2-point Biden popular vote win where Trump narrowly wins the Electoral College.

As I wrote earlier in the piece, our forecast gives Trump about a 9 percent chance of winning an election held today despite his current deficit in polls — not bad when you’re 7 points down! But it’s about equally likely that a 7-point Biden lead could translate into a 12-point Biden win, in which he’d not only carry states like Georgia and Texas, but would also have a shot in South Carolina, Alaska and Montana.

Trump’s comments on respecting the election outcome are deeply worrisome, but it’s hard to estimate his chances of overturning the result

Hoo, boy. At some point I’m going to have to write a column about this too, I suppose. As I said at the outset, our forecast assumes that the election is free and fair — at least to the extent that past elections that we used to train the model were free and fair. (Throughout American history, there has always been plenty of voter suppression and voter disenfranchisement.)

But for now, let me advance a few propositions:

Even a small probability that the U.S. could become a failed or manifestly undemocratic state is worth taking seriously.

There are a wide range of things that Trump could attempt to do, many of which would be quite damaging to the country, but they are not necessarily equally likely to succeed.

Trump’s actions are much more likely to actually change the result of the election if the outcome is close, and right now, the most likely scenario is that Biden wins by a not-so-close margin.

Beyond that, it’s hard to estimate the probability that Trump could steal the election to any degree of precision. It requires, at a minimum, some knowledge of the probabilities in a free and fair election plus some knowledge of election law and how many votes could realistically come under dispute plus some theory of the institutional incentives of the Supreme Court and various other courts plus some opinions on how Congress might interpret the Constitution in the event of a disputed election. Maybe a panel of experts could get together and try to put together some reasonable bounds on the probability of various scenarios, but I don’t know that any individual could — certainly not me.

After Trump’s actions over the past few weeks, though, I wonder if there’s some tradeoff between Trump’s chances of winning legitimately and his willingness to engage in authoritarian rhetoric and behavior, even if it probably wouldn’t succeed at stealing the election. It’s not like this is coming entirely out of left field; Trump also said in 2016 that he wouldn’t necessarily respect the election results. But his recent statements have come at a moment of increasing peril for his campaign. It’s hard to know for sure, but I think Trump’s comments might be more tempered if he were 2 points ahead in Wisconsin instead of 7 points down.

It’s not easy to see which cards Trump has left to play or which contingencies could work in his favor enough for him to win — other than if the polls have been wrong all along.

Consider that Trump’s convention produced, at best, a very meager bounce in his favor. His attempt to pivot the campaign to a “law and order” theme fell completely flat in polls of the upper Midwest. He’s thrown the kitchen sink at Biden and not really been able to pull down Biden’s favorables. His hopes that we’d turn the corner on COVID-19 before the election are diminishing after cases have begun to rise again in many states. His campaign, somehow, is struggling to hold on to enough cash to run ads in the places it most needs to run them. The New York Times and other news organizations are likely to continue publishing damaging stories on his taxes and personal finances from now until the election. And now he’s seemingly lost the first debate.

If Trump intuits that he’s unlikely to win legitimately — it’s not hard to imagine him escalating his anti-democratic rhetoric and behavior. It’s also not hard to imagine this rhetoric further eroding his position in polls. It’s highly unpopular in focus groups (yes, take those with a huge grain of salt) and Trump’s polling over the past several days has been particularly bad (although there’s been a lot of other news, too).

So we could be headed for a vicious cycle where Trump increasingly gives up on trying to persuade or turn out voters and voters increasingly give up on him. But from a polling standpoint, this is one of the clearer elections to diagnose: Biden isn’t home-free, but he’s in a strong position. Nonetheless, the outlook for what’s actually in store for America has rarely been more cloudy.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Nate Silver

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newstfionline · 5 years

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Headlines

Winter storm threatens to scramble Thanksgiving travel plans (AP) A day after bringing havoc to the Rocky Mountains, a powerful winter storm rolled across the Midwest on Wednesday, threatening to scramble Thanksgiving plans for millions of people during one of the busiest travel weeks of the year. The storm, which was blamed for one death and hundreds of canceled flights, pushed east into South Dakota, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. But the West was not free of heavy weather. A “bomb cyclone” phenomenon was expected to topple trees and knock out power in California and Oregon.

Falling U.S. life expectancy (Washington Post/JAMA) Death rates from suicide, drug overdoses, liver disease and dozens of other causes have been rising over the past decade for young and middle-aged adults, driving down overall life expectancy in the United States for three consecutive years, according to a strikingly bleak study published Tuesday that looked at the past six decades of mortality data. The report, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, was immediately hailed by outside researchers for its comprehensive treatment of a still-enigmatic trend: the reversal of historical patterns in longevity. Despite spending more on health care than any other country, the United States has seen increasing mortality and falling life expectancy for people age 25 to 64, who should be in the prime of their lives. In contrast, other wealthy nations have generally experienced continued progress in extending longevity.

Global death toll of landmines rises due to mines laid by militants (Reuters) The global casualty toll of landmines doubled in 2018 from a 2013 low due to conflicts in Afghanistan, Syria and Mali and mostly due to the increased use of improvised landmines set by militant groups such as Islamic State.

‘No intervention:’ Mexico president reacts to Trump’s cartel terrorism plan (Reuters) Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador on Wednesday rejected “interventionism” after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was working to designate the Latin American country’s drug cartels as terrorist organizations. Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said such a designation could, under U.S. law, enable the United States to act directly against the threat if it so chose.

The political fallout of a murder in Malta (Foreign Policy) An investigation into the 2017 murder of the crusading Maltese journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia has, after two years, started to impact high-level government officials. Prime Minister Joseph Muscat’s chief of staff and two ministers abruptly stepped down on Tuesday in the wake of several arrests in the hunt for those behind the killing of Caruana Galizia. Chief of Staff Keith Schembri, Tourism Minister Konrad Mizzi, and Economy Minister Chris Cardona all resigned but have denied wrongdoing. Four years ago, Caruana Galizia used the leaked Panama Papers to show that Schembri and Mizzi had benefited from Panamanian shell companies shortly after assuming office. Muscat has so far refused to step down himself, though he has declared “I would definitely resign if there is any sort of association between myself and the murder.”

Hopes Fade for Any More Survivors in Albania Quake; 40 Dead (AP) Hopes were fading Thursday of finding anyone else alive beneath the rubble of collapsed buildings in Albania two days after a deadly quake struck the country’s Adriatic coast, with the death toll increasing to 40 after more bodies were pulled from the ruins.

Overnight clashes in Lebanon injure dozens as tensions rise (AP) Overnight confrontations between supporters and opponents of Lebanon’s president--mostly fistfights and stone throwing--erupted in cities and towns across the country, injuring dozens of people, and 16 people were detained for their involvement, the Lebanese Red Cross and the army said Wednesday. The nationwide uprising against the country’s ruling elite has remained overwhelmingly peaceful since it began Oct. 17, but as the political deadlock for forming a new government drags on, tempers have risen.

China at the U.N. (Foreign Policy) China is angling for the top job at the United Nations’ World Intellectual Property Organization, responsible for setting international standards for patents, trademarks, and copyrights. “Given China’s long track record of corporate espionage, rampant IP theft, and support for U.S. enemies, many trade experts are wary, to say the least,” FP’s Colum Lynch writes.

Pope’s message of openness to refugees prompts social media backlash in Japan (Washington Post) A visit to Japan by Pope Francis and his dream of a nuclear-free world drew largely positive headlines this week in Japan. But when he tried to gently encourage the Japanese to extend a hand of friendship to refugees, the backlash on social media was significant. Japan, among the world’s richest nations, has some of the toughest policies toward refugees and asylum seekers and a reputation for being relatively closed to outsiders. The pope’s effort to preach a more accepting message was not universally welcomed.

Iraqi Forces Kill 14 Protesters After Iranian Consulate Torched (Reuters) Iraqi security forces shot dead 14 protesters in the southern city of Nassiriya on Thursday, medical sources said, and authorities imposed a curfew in Najaf after demonstrators burned an Iranian consulate.

Flooded Djibouti Says 2 Years of Rain Fell on a Single Day (AP) Flash flooding has hit the small but strategic East African nation of Djibouti, where the government and United Nations say the equivalent of two years’ rain fell in a single day.

Spain Warns of Possible Sahara Camp Terror Attack (AP) Spanish authorities have issued a warning of the serious possibility of a terror attack against Spanish citizens visiting or working in the Saharawi refugee camps in the Western Sahara.

French helicopter crash in Mali (Foreign Policy) France suffered its largest military loss of life since 1983 yesterday, when two helicopters collided during a mission supporting French ground troops in Mali’s Liptako region, killing 13 soldiers. The collision brings the French military death toll in Mali to 41 since the country’s 2013 intervention. France’s Defense Minister Florence Parly said an inquiry will be opened into the cause of the incident.

UN Says Armed Attacks in Eastern Congo Kill Ebola Responders (AP) Rebels have attacked and killed Ebola response workers in eastern Congo, the World Health Organization chief said Thursday, an alarming development that could cause the waning outbreak to again pick up momentum in what has been called a war zone.

#headlines #news

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jrsechelon · 3 years

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What Happens In Vegas

An intriguing start to the season has been met with rumblings and calls for one of the general manager’s jobs in the Elite Fantasy League. Black Hole Son has been met with several injuries in several key positions. Quarterback Dak Prescott continues to have lat soreness which he is rehabbing throughout the week. Before the official kickoff last week Black Hole Son’s front office got cold feet and dealt, Dak Prescott. Over the course of the last two and a half weeks, Black Hole Son has made seven trades! This is a new record. In a year where many felt there wasn’t going to be many trades there has been more than we could remember in recent memory. Not only has the front office in Vegas been rolling the dice more than the craps table, but they’ve been playing roulette with their draft picks like they are being forced to play Russian roulette. Buds Bums holds The Busy Killers 4th Rounder that was sent to Black Hole Son for Dak Prescott and Wayne Gallup after Black Hole Son and Buds Bums made a trade. The Busy Killers holds PURPLEHAZE’s 6th Rounder and Black Hole Son’s 7th Rounder, VanillaGorilla’s holds Black Hole Son’s 5th Rounder, and PURPLEHAZE holds Black Hole Son’s 2022 1st Round, 4th Round, and 11th Round.

Wheelin' & Dealin'

Black Hole Son in 2022 has two 5th Rounders (Buds Bums/PURPLEHAZE’s). PURPLEHAZE’s 10th Round, two 12th Rounders (PURPLEHAZE/The Busy Killers), and VanillaGorilla’s 15th Round pick. Just because you reside in Las Vegas, Sin City, a city of bright lights and a million casinos doesn’t mean you have to gamble your present and future away. What happens in Vegas surely doesn’t stay in Vegas when it comes to Black Hole Son. Although fans have complained about wanting their general manager canned, that happening is very unlikely. Before these Vegas fans and Oakland fans who will make the trip to Sin City in week 3 for the season opener, their beloved Black Hole Son’s will be traveling to Green Bay, Wisconsin to face off against LilShupeScoresBIGPoints. Both teams sitting at 0-1 after two heartbreaking defeats, going 0-2 is something neither team wants to face. Derek Carr played lights out last week against the defending Super Bowl Champions and almost pulled out the upset. Josh Allen didn’t have the type of game many expected against Evolution. The game wasn’t the home opener LilShupeScoresBIGPoints was hoping for, but now it’s time to reset and focus on week 2. LilShupeScoresBIGPoints will be looking for big points from Josh Allen and this potent offense, as well as expecting a boost from the foot of Graham Gano who is one of the better kickers in the league. Black Hole Son will continue to ignore the media frenzy and calls for the head of the general manager in hopes for a better outing from Ezekial Elliot and freshly acquired Devin Singletary which can take the pressure off Derek Carr who if he doesn’t have to be the magic man will have the opportunity to lead a balanced offense against LilShupeScoresBIGPoints. Being only their fourth meeting in the regular season all-time neither team has a specific edge over one another, although Black Hole Son leads the all-time record 2-1.

For the two teams that handed the L’s to Black Hole Son and LilShupeScoresBIGPoints, they will continue to look to build on the week 1 success. The defending Super Bowl Champions, Yuba City Sultans remain at home after holding onto the narrow victory against Black Hole Son in the home-opener and annual Thursday Night Football season kick-off game. Yuba City Sultans welcomes into their home the only 0-1 team within their division. Buds Bums, Lamar Jackson, and company enter Newark, New Jersey to welcome the defending champs in the Midwest-Atlantic Division. With the shift in the division when BroncosTillDeath sold their team and the Nashville Crocs became an official franchise, the Sultans are going to have to become familiar with three teams who have been in the same division against each other for many years now. 4-1 all-time against Buds Bums, Yuba City Sultans are most likely not shaking in their cleats.

Sultans Riding High

Through the years, Buds Bums have only had one winning season (2018); while Yuba City Sultans had four winning seasons, including last year when they ran all the way on the back of Derek Henry to the Super Bowl Title. Buds Bums has been in the league one season more than Yuba City Sultans but looking at their overall win/loss/tie record you can see completely different stories. Buds Bums holds a 32-65-2 overall, with this coming Sunday being their 100th game in franchise history. Yuba City Sultans on the other hand holds a 46-39-0 overall franchise record. Two teams who came into the EFL almost simultaneously but have had two completely different journeys. For Buds Bums to change the course of their journey, it starts with this game against the defending Super Bowl Champions. Evolution on the other hand surprised LilShupeScoresBIGPoints posting the second-most points in week 1. Evolution now travels across the country to face Hyrule Empire who had a difficult defeat in week 1. Evolution now travels across the country to face Hyrule Empire who had a difficult defeat in week 1. Traveling across the country will be tough to adjust to the time difference, not just that but Evolution is going to have to maintain the same high level of play they showed in week 1 in week 2 if they want a chance to defeat Hyrule Empire. Joe Burrow looked poised last week against VanillaGorilla’s but the early injury Mostert sustained hindered Hyrule Empire to get their running game established. For Hyrule Empire to find success in week 2, they will need to continue to rely heavily on Burrow to stay consistent and get a running game established early.

Burrow Poised To Succeed

Burrow is still young but has a lot of poise that screams veteran quarterback! Trevor Lawrence for Evolution looked more like a rookie than even Burrow did in his rookie campaign. It should be a fun game between two young and hungry quarterbacks. Overall this game may come down to which quarterback doesn’t turn the ball over more. That is why establishing the running game early is so important. Joe Mixon stands atop the leading rushers after week 1 but Hyrule Empire has a very shifty running game and two speedsters. Yes, losing Mostert is a big blow to this team that has Super Bowl aspirations; but the next-man-up approach always has to be something considered in football. Eli Mitchell will be ready to go. Hyrule Empire has a group of speed and shifty players in all positions including defense. Jalen Ramsey, Aaron Donald, and the rest of the defense will be licking their lips at the chance to get after rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Evolution and Hyrule Empire haven’t met each other much over the course of the Elite Fantasy League, much like LilShupeScoresBIGPoints and Black Hole Son - but neither team will come on that field unsure of what the task is. Both coaches will have their teams ready, but for Evolution, it isn’t just battling Hyrule Empire, it’s battling the pacific timezone.

Another South-East team that has to travel to the Pacific timezone is the 0-1 Crocs. The Crocs along with Evolution will both be playing games in California in South-East division versus Pacific division match-ups. The Crocs will be flying out of Nashville late Friday night and land early morning in California. The Crocs got a taste of what the Elite Fantasy League is all about is a game that came down to the wire. The Crocs fell in 0-1 against division rival The Canadian Cripplers but showed many that they have what it takes to hang against these seasoned EFL teams. Now a week into the season and sitting at 0-1, the Crocs have a chance to push their record to an even .500 when they go against Black Mambas. Black Mambas was able to shut Aaron Rodgers down and do a ton of damage through the air with veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford. In another difficult game, Black Mambas defense will have to shut down Kyler Murray who is looking like a contender for league MVP. This being their first game against one another, the only tape footage that Black Mambas can use is what happened last week on the field against The Canadian Cripplers. The Cripplers couldn’t shut down Murray who at times looked unstoppable out there. He has all the tangibles to be one of the very best quarterbacks but as we mentioned on the opposite side of the field is exactly that; one of the very best quarterbacks. Matthew Stafford showed us that he is rejuvenated being in a new location and has all the focus and drive to push Black Mambas back to the postseason. Get ready, because this game between Stafford and Murray will be one that we don’t forget.

Patrick Mahomes, David Montgomery, and rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase all had some huge games last week. Do you know who else did? Tyreek Hill, George Kittle, and Rob Gronkowski. At 1-1 in the all-time match-up between these two teams - I think this could very well be the highest scoring affair in week two. Balls Deep traveling to Cincinnati in week two gets a chance to pull their record to 1-1 and take the rubber match against Straight Edge Society. It’s been a while since we have seen Straight Edge Society as a dominant team in the EFL, but something tells me those days are going to be a distant memory this season. Balls Deep lost a tough one last week late, but they have no reason to hang their heads. In fact, Balls Deep should be inspired by the defeat and motivated to find a way to close out early.

Lance Or Jimmy G?

TJ Watt should continue to be motivated after the big payday prior to the season starting and tasting the bitter feelings of defeat, he’ll want to lead his defense over Patrick Mahomes the man who was voted number one in the Top 100 Players of 2020. Jimmy Garoppolo looked good last weekend but the decision to run Trey Lance out there makes one wonder if these are special gadget plays specifically for Lance or if Balls Deep is trying to get the rookie quarterback reps, no matter how little they may be. You can’t tell me Jimmy G couldn’t have dumped a short 5-yard end route to his receiver into the endzone as Trey Lance did. For Balls Deep to be successful this week against Straight Edge Society and their high powered offense, they will have to allow Jimmy Garoppolo to remain in that huddle. Any form of gadget plays that bring Lance in will only hurt Jimmy G’s ability to continue the chemistry building between him and his receivers. Trey Lance is a special talent and I understand why Balls Deep wants to bring him on the field, but you exposed yourself in week one. Straight Edge Society now knows what packages you have highlighted for Trey Lance. This affair between these two teams should be a fun one. A game that may come down to who has the ball last and which defense can sustain the opposing offense.

Ultimate Savages and The Canadian Cripplers are both playing back-to-back divisional games. Both teams went 1-0 against their week 1 divisional opponents, now playing another divisional game they have a chance to get an early lead within their divisions. The Canadian Cripplers are on back-to-back road division games early. This is a tough test but for a team that is based in Canada, it can be an even bigger pain. Lucky for them though, if they go 2-0 now they will be hosting these two teams later in the season when the weather in Canada becomes a bit more frigid. For The Canadian Cripplers, they travel to Dallas, Texas to face off against their biggest rival, The Busy Killers. The Busy Killers took a remarkable late week 1 lead against Balls Deep and was able to hang on. For The Busy Killers, this is a game that brings flashbacks to the minds of the players and coaches. Week 14 last year The Cripplers hammered the final nail in the coffin of The Busy Killers ending their postseason hopes. Week 2 is a chance for revenge. This game against two rivals will again most likely be decided on the foot of their kickers. Evenly matched in many areas on the offensive and defensive side of the ball, once again the game will be on the foot of their kickers. Bank on it to happen. The team that has the ball last will heavily have to rely on their kicker to seal the game. Last week The Busy Killers sealed their game with the foot of their kicker, The Canadian Cripplers on the other hand was able to seal their game with a late turnover.

Rodgers Versus McCaffery

Crosby didn’t have many chances due to a defense that was rushing all day, but The Busy Killers are more familiar with The Canadian Cripplers antics than the Crocs so Crosby will have to be ready at a moments notice. Ultimate Savages and Rainelo Hawks renew their rivalry also. This just like The Busy Killers is a chance for revenge for Rainelo Hawks. The Rainelo Hawks needed a win last year in week 14 to capture their division. Instead, they failed to win and fell 0-2 against Ultimate Savages. Both teams reside in Seattle, the travel time isn’t bad at all but being the “Away” team in your own stadium has got to feel different. For Ultimate Savages, they will get to experience that. Unphased last season with this Ultimate Savages will look to continue the punishment and take the city of Seattle from Rainelo Hawks who has long been established there. Rainelo Hawks and Aaron Rodgers got to get things figured out because several media analysts believe Rodgers may not be “all in” when it comes to football. We know one thing though, usually when Rodgers has a terrible game, the next game he ends up putting up around 3-5 touchdowns and over 400 yards. Should we go back to R-E-L-A-X; cause I believe Rainelo Hawks and Rodgers will be just fine.

Last week we got a treat when Rainelo Hawks and Black Mambas renewed their old rivalry back from the days they were in the same division. Week 2 we get another chance to enjoy an old division rivalry being renewed. PURPLEHAZE travels to Chicago to take on VanillaGorilla’s. These two teams go back a long time. This isn’t only an old division rivalry being renewed for the sixteenth time, but it is a Super Bowl III rematch where VanillaGorilla’s defeated PURPLEHAZE. VanillaGorilla’s was able to pull out a huge victory over Hyrule Empire last week, even on the heels of star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. being ruled out right before kickoff. VanillaGorilla’s was the number 1 seed last year in the postseason and they looked just as well last week. The defending Mountain-West Division Champions, PURPLEHAZE didn’t have an answer for Ultimate Savages last week. Much like Black Hole Son, PURPLEHAZE has been surprisingly active within the trade market. For PURPLEHAZE though, they have acquired quite a bit of extra early-round draft picks while giving little away. PURPLEHAZE looks like a team that is focused on trying to win now but is also building for the future. Nothing is certain and nothing

Rivalry Renewed

suggests that PURPLEHAZE is giving up on the 2021 season; instead, they are just securing what they can for the next several years while hoping for a successful 15th season. VanillaGorilla’s holds the overall win/loss/tie record over ex-rival PURPLEHAZE at 9-6-0. Last week we saw Russell Wilson cook and boy did he look refreshed to be in a new city. Throwing for 254 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, we talk about Kyler Murray being a favorite for league MVP, but Wilson will and should be in that conversation too. Losing Josh Jacobs for this game will be a tough go for PURPLEHAZE. Acquiring rookie Kenneth Gainwell and Brandin Cooks from Black Hole Son for Devin Singletary should help but having to rely on rookie running backs might be too much to ask for.PURPLEHAZE and VanillaGorilla’s aren’t unfamiliar with each other though and that gives PURPLEHAZE a better chance against this dominant Chicago franchise. If you think for one moment that PURPLEHAZE will lay down for VanillaGorilla’s you’ve got another thing coming. Yes, VanillaGorilla’s are favored. Yes, they have the better team but any given Sunday, anything can happen. PURPLEHAZE and VanillaGorilla’s met last season in week 2 where VanillaGorilla’s put a shellacking to PURPLEHAZE - Though many feel PURPLEHAZE may be the worst team this year if I was a betting man I may just put some money on these purple people to pull out a massive upset over VanillaGorilla’s who last lost to PURPLEHAZE week 3 of 2019.

#Football FantasyFootball NFLFantasy NFLFantasyLeague NationalFootballLeague NFL FantasyFootballLeague

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anitamcmillan93-blog · 4 years

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best cheapest home insurance

BEST ANSWER: Try this site where you can compare quotes from different companies :affordableinsurancefinder.top

best cheapest home insurance

best cheapest home insurance rates The most affordable states for home insurance are Maine, California, and Florida. Home insurance rates in these states are higher than in the Midwest. The four most expensive states for home insurance are New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Wisconsin. Home insurance rates in the four most expensive states are 8.36%, much higher than the state average of 15.84%. These are the same as the national average of 16.13%. Below are the most expensive homeowners insurance states for the lowest annual rates (states with coverage levels below $400,000): Alabama – $1,974 per year. Alaska – $1,965 per year. Arizona – $1,982 per year. Arkansas – $2,081 per year. California – $2,056 per year. Colorado – $2,086 per year. Connecticut – $2,078 per year. Delaware – $. best cheapest home insurance companies in North Star State. The top 5 companies to research to make sure you are getting the best rate. These companies have low losses and great customer service ratings. You won’t find better, costlier companies anywhere else. Also keep in mind that some of this is just information. The key lies in talking to a personal agent to determine how much coverage may cost you. That way you can be sure to select the right coverage so that you can maximize the savings you’ll receive. Also if you use the online comparison tool you can choose which companies can provide the best quote for you. The best times to get a quote online are when you take the time to - see if the company offers good value for money and a good-quality coverage for your money. The next thing to do is just go and buy your insurance policy online. The best time is to purchase a policy based on the information - go to the company’s website, enter your info,. best cheapest home insurance in our analysis. The company is based on its 2018 Q1 earnings report, though other companies didn’t get more than a percentage of the premium. The new home insurance policy is for the home in the Columbus, Ohio area, and will include a few other perks, such as coverage in addition to the insurance policies the company has already offered customers. The insurance policy will include insurance protection for your home itself, along with coverage for the contents of your house and belongings on a larger insurance policy. Because insurance products from Econo cover the majority of home insurance claims, your premium may reflect this. In some instances, the company may not necessarily offer these coverage types and more, based on the overall cost of the claim. The policy will typically pay for repair and replacement of your belongings if they are damaged or destroyed. A standard home insurance policy covers such as, but if you have a or fire, you may need , too. You’d have to pay your premium.

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Do you need home insurance? You know the answer, not everyone will need it. That’s why we’ve designed an insurance rating guide for customers to help you determine your coverage needs and find competitive home coverage rates. Home insurance in Utah is a confusing situation. It’s difficult to decide how much coverage you need. Which homeowners can afford to risk homeowners’ claims and what the average cost of homes, houses, and renters insurance will be is still a complex situation. That’s why it’s important to start your search by finding out what your state requires of you to get a policy. You might just see a lot of different insurance policy and coverage types and coverage amounts. In the states in Utah, if you are an individual who lives in a community of your own choosing, or are considering purchasing a policy, you might need to decide how you want to utilize the individual area of your policy. If it’s a small home in the state, or a condo in.

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10. Bundle Homeowners Insurance with Auto Insurance. The cheapest rate for your personal auto insurance is $1 per day; but if you drive with your car full times of 25 days you won’t be eligible for a discounted rates from the insurer because they won’t be able to use your credit rating to help you assess your premiums. You can also be eligible for up to a $1000 discount, at which time you can stop for a service in a similar state. If you have your own boat, you might be able to find auto insurance in Oregon that includes boat and trailer insurance as well as comprehensive and fire insurance to cover your vehicle on a used boat. This insurance will include both personal injury protection to cover medical costs of $5,000 and medical payments to cover property damage. If you are looking for insurance and depend on the insurance company, don’t count on it because the vehicle might be stolen or your landlord’s home might be burglarized, but that’s not always.

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3. Understand the Difference Between Market Value and Insurance Value when Finding the Right Insurance As with all things, if your goal is to minimize financial losses, the insurance market you want can be a great place to start. This isn’t as common as other states (many believe) but the current situation isn’t so bad. For our covers a small loss for an individual in a major collision. As such, these states do not require insurance from drivers. If you’re in a high-hazard area, you may find it possible to purchase a low insurance premium for your car. Or, if you already have car insurance, consider purchasing a non-owners policy when you aren’t required to have car insurance. Why do you need insurance? The fact that you need insurance has caused our company to go into the process of getting a new license. We recently had to wait for a certain amount of time with our current provider.

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What are home insurance add-ons? An add-on to your new policy includes the following: Your auto insurance provider may provide coverages and/or add-ons including roadside assistance, towing and a variety of other optional coverages and add-ons. With some drivers, this is a way of preventing you from getting in a car accident that may lead to a major expense in the future. If you’re already having problems getting your car repaired, contact your agent or get a hold of one of our auto insurance agents. We can help you keep what’s expected straight so that you can be a safer driver. It may not seem like you need an insurance policy, but your credit could impact how much you’ll pay for car insurance in Florida. To qualify for discounts, your credit history and other factors that affect your car insurance, look at companies that specialize in drivers with bad credit or high credit score. For example, they may offer discounts for insuring multiple cars, having a new license and.

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Home insurance guides you through the benefits and challenges of insuring your home. Homeowners insurance and homeowner’s insurance are designed to protect against the risks that can arise from unusual events or unexpected incidents. They may include such things as the possibility of natural disasters; incidental losses of the home; and other scenarios that might not be covered, such as damage incurred from property crimes or liability. Homeowners insurance policies also cover your belongings for various uses, weather, and natural disaster situations. There are several types of homeowners insurance policies available, which may cover a multitude of risks that can occur when your home is damaged or destroyed due to a natural disaster. To make sure you’re adequately covered, talk to your agent about what you might need if an incident occurs. All major homeowners insurance providers are well-known and reputable in the industry. When your home and belongings are damaged or lost due to an accidental occurrence, then your homeowners insurance policy will help you get the legal assistance you need. There are several insurance.

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What is house insurance?Home insurance, also called house insurance, is a general term used to describe the two main ways to insure you home. These are buildings insurance and contents insurance.When you buy house insurance, you can buy buildings insurance and home contents insurance separately. You can also buy them together in a single home insurance policy. This is often called ‘home and contents’ insurance, buildings and contents insurance, or home and buildings insurance.Home insurance pays out an agreed amount when you make a claim. You pay a house insurance company an amount every month. This is called the premium. When you compare house insurance quotes, you compare home insurance premiums to work out the cost.Buildings and contents insurance, what s the difference?Contents insuranceContents insurance covers everything that would move with you if you moved house or flat. For example, your sofa and TV, kitchen appliances and personal belongings.Contents insurance can be valuable to everyone, including renters and council tenants. You’ll need to compare contents insurance quotes to get the best home contents insurance deal.There are several types of home contents cover so make sure you compare home contents insurance deals to get the best one for you. Contents insurance will typically cover you up to £50,000.Building insuranceBuildings insurance covers the physical structure of your home, like the walls and the roof. Permanent fixtures and fittings, like your bathtub and kitchen cupboards, are also covered by buildings insurance.You may need building insurance if you own your own home. Some mortgage lenders ask that you buy buildings insurance. You could compare buildings insurance quotes to get the best buildings insurance deal for you.What does home insurance cover?Different home and contents insurance companies will provide different levels of cover. So the cheapest home and contents insurance may not be the best cover for you.Typically buildings and contents insurance will cover the cost of repair if your home is damaged by:Falling treesFire, smoke and explosionsWater damage from leaking pipesVandalismSubsidence (where there are problems with physical structure of your building)Oil leaks from from your heating systemFloods and storms

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easyfoodnetwork · 4 years

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White Lily Flour Has Long Held a Near-Mythological Status in the South. Now It’s Everywhere.

Dannie Sue Balakas/Instagram

While other flour companies have faced pandemic-related shortages, the Southern staple has been quietly filling the void at grocery stores around the country

As many home-bound Americans began baking to feed and distract themselves from the coronavirus pandemic, Schanon Odell of Crown Pacific Fine Foods was making frantic phone calls to every flour mill in the country. Odell’s job at the Seattle-area specialty food distributor includes helping her grocery store clients keep flour in stock, and so she resolved to find anyone that might have it. One day in late March, she spent 10 straight hours calling and calling, only to get the same answer from everyone who picked up: all sold out.

But there was one exception: As she searched the internet for flour mills, “White Lily kept coming up,” Odell says. She was only vaguely aware of the special place that the flour occupies in the canon of Southern baking, but as she worked her way through the company’s phone tree, she focused less on what White Lily was and more on securing 4,000 cases of flour — about 160,000 pounds — to distribute to stores around the Pacific Northwest, like Zupan’s in Portland, Oregon, Kroger’s QFC stores, and independent shops like Red Apple Market on Seattle’s Beacon Hill.

The shipment of White Lily arrived at Red Apple Market just in time for Jill Lightner’s husband to replenish the flour stash that Lightner, a food writer, was quickly stress-baking her way through. “I had just been putting ‘buy more flour’ on the shopping list every time he went,” she says. When her husband returned with a bag of White Lily, announcing, “This is all they had,” Lightner, who had gone to high school in rural Virginia, knew what she had lucked into. “Why didn’t you buy 50 bags?” she asked.

The same scene played out from Iowa to San Jose, as White Lily flour appeared mysteriously on shelves far from its usual Southern distribution area. Bakers familiar with the product went to stores braced to find bottom-of-the-barrel flour, only to come upon the brand they had often wished they could get locally. From outposts in the North, Midwest, and West, they posted gleefully on social media. “When you find the flour, you make the biscuits,” said a baker in Wisconsin. In Brooklyn, a shopper wondered, “What is this magic happening with the flour supply chain?”

White Lily declined to comment on the expanded distribution to Eater, but David Ortega, an associate professor in the department of agriculture, food and resource economics at Michigan State University, points out that some of the recent flour distribution quirks can be tied to the significant loss of major wholesale customers like food service and bakeries, combined with high demand at the retail level. “One of the major obstacles to this switch was packaging,” he says over email — which means that any flour company that had recently stocked up on retail-size bags found itself best prepared to meet demand.

“Flour processing is much more mechanized (relative to say meat processing plants), so it hasn’t been affected by processing disruption to the extent that other sectors have,” Ortega adds. “My guess is that While Lily and other companies expanded their markets out of necessity (loss in food industry customers) and, to an extent, opportunity (surge in demand in supermarkets).”

Whatever the reason, it made many home bakers happy. Known for its soft, light texture, White Lily flour has long held a near-mythological status in the South as the secret to the perfect biscuit, much in the same way that New Yorkers believe that the city’s water is the secret to the perfect bagel. In The Gift of Southern Cooking, the renowned champion of the region’s foodways, Edna Lewis, named it as an essential ingredient to great biscuits. On her blog, Southern Souffle, the recipe developer, food writer, and biscuit-pop-up chef Erika Council echoed Lewis’s sentiment, writing that White Lily killed the “hard as a rock” and “difficult to make” biscuit myths.

And yet, despite the ostensible transportability of a bag of flour, finding White Lily outside of the Southeastern United States is normally only nominally easier than getting New York City tap water in Arizona. The only other time Lightner remembers seeing it for sale in Seattle was years ago, when she found a “daintily sized” bag at a Williams-Sonoma holiday pop-up for a premium price. She bought it anyway. When Atlantic writer Amanda Mull, who was born in Georgia, wrote about the brand in 2018, she reported that she couldn’t find any retailers who carried it north of Richmond, Virginia, or west of Oklahoma (though Surfas in Los Angeles does occasionally). You can find it on Amazon, though it’s sold there at about 500 percent of grocery store cost.

The legend of White Lily began in 1883, when it was founded in Knoxville, Tennessee. Its flour’s ethereal nature is partially attributable to the fact that it is milled from soft red winter wheat, which results in a flour with only 9 percent protein — significantly lower than King Arthur’s 11.7 percent or Gold Medal’s 10.5 percent. A flour’s protein content is important because it corresponds directly with how much gluten forms when the flour comes into contact with a liquid. For a strong loaf with structure and chewiness, bakers look for a high-protein flour, like bread flour, which has up to 13 percent protein. But for biscuits, lower protein content, and thus lower gluten, keeps them from becoming too dense.

But plenty of flours have lower protein levels: Pastry flour contains around 9 percent, and cake flour between 7 and 9 percent. White Lily’s true secret, according to a 2008 New York Times story, lies in its milling and bleaching processes. Its all-purpose flour is milled only from the heart of the wheat’s endosperm, the purest part, and is more finely milled and sifted than other flours — its packaging even boasts that it’s “Pre-Sifted.” Unlike many all-purpose flours, it is also bleached with chlorine, which weakens the flour’s proteins. The result is so light that the White Lily website warns that when measuring by volume, rather than weight, two extra tablespoons per cup of flour are required in standard recipes.

“I’ve been so worried I’m going to run out, I haven’t used it for anything but biscuits.”

When the J.M. Smucker Co. bought White Lily in 2007, it closed the company’s Knoxville mill and moved production to the Midwest, much to the dismay of many of the flour’s fans. White Lily had previously gone through more than a half-dozen corporate owners, including national names like Tyson Foods and Archer Daniels Midland. In 2018, Smucker sold it yet again, this time to Hometown Food Company, the parent company of Pillsbury. But despite how often it has changed hands, White Lily has managed to remain quintessentially Southern enough that Lightner compares it to a souvenir: “If I am near a Winn-Dixie or a Piggly Wiggly, I’m going to buy it and bring it back,” she says, “along with a suitcase full of grits.”

For her part, Odell, the specialty food distributor, is surprised to see how well the flour has resonated with retailers outside of the South. “Every day, people are ordering,” she says. “I think people are recognizing it and want to purchase it.”

Dannie Sue Balakas is one them. Born in Tennessee and currently living in West Michigan, she was thrilled when White Lily showed up at her local Meijer, and started buying a bag every time she shopped there. Because shoppers are still limited to one bag per person, she rations it accordingly. “I’ve been so worried I’m going to run out, I haven’t used it for anything but biscuits,” she says, describing those biscuits as “super fluffy and the best I’ve ever had.”

Fear of running out is a legitimate concern: Shelves in the South were also emptied of flour, and while Odell says her supply has been mostly consistent, it hasn’t been seamless. For Dean Hasegawa, the general manager of the Red Apple where Lightner bought her White Lily, the store’s White Lily purchase was a one-time deal so that Hasegawa could cover the flour shortage — and even with it, he still had to re-bag and price out 50-pound food-service bags of other flours into retail sizes. “It’s not something I will normally stock,” he says, and while he heard some excitement over it, he believes that most of his customers were simply happy to see flour.

Still, the customer enthusiasm inspires Odell. Her local QFC stores talked about wanting to keep White Lily on their shelves even as flour stocks normalize, but the Cincinnati-based buyer from Kroger, which owns QFC, insisted that people in the Northwest wouldn’t buy Southern flour. “I’d like to keep it if I can,” says Odell, but first she needs to prove that people care about White Lily and not just flour in general. “Maybe when the dust settles, I’ll be able to tell if it’s a viable product,” she says.

But for true biscuit fanatics, White Lily’s all-purpose flour isn’t even the true prize: In West Michigan, Balakas has “been praying” that stores will start stocking its coveted self-rising flour. But even if they don’t, you can mail order it from Walmart (with free shipping, if you order enough else) or, per White Lily’s website, simply add 1½ teaspoons of baking powder and ½ teaspoon of salt to each cup of the all-purpose flour. While they may be effective, though, neither of those methods have the same magic as wandering the baking aisle expecting nothing and coming upon a treasure — and, in, the process recapturing a tiny fragment of the joy that grocery shopping once held.

from Eater - All https://ift.tt/2Cg2NBT https://ift.tt/2YPfpI0

Dannie Sue Balakas/Instagram

While other flour companies have faced pandemic-related shortages, the Southern staple has been quietly filling the void at grocery stores around the country

“I’ve been so worried I’m going to run out, I haven’t used it for anything but biscuits.”

from Eater - All https://ift.tt/2Cg2NBT via Blogger https://ift.tt/2N7e2ii

#Blogger #cooking #Eater #food #recipes

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shesinspain-blog · 6 years

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6 months later...

Hello and welcome to the epilogue!

I’m on my cozy bed in Sun Prairie, Wisconsin, surrounded by twinkle lights and the scent of a newly thrifted candle. I have to teach before work tomorrow, but it has been so long since my last entry, since I left Europe, since I started this new chapter of my life.

She’s not in Spain anymore, baby!

I left Barcelona in October to spend 6 weeks in Rome, which is where you last heard from me. What I didn’t tell you at the time - because I was surprising Angie with my return, and had to keep it all hush-hush - was that my Rome trip was a bookend to my time overseas and a way for me to transition. It was one of the best decisions I made with my life planning so far. To leave Barcelona and fly straight back into the Red White and Blue would have been disastrous for me. I needed time to process, and I needed an open space to do that. Barcelona and Wisconsin are too washed with memories and sentimentality for me to have made my peace.

I was INCREDIBLY nervous for my flight back and landed in a freezing, snowy NYC around ten. A passport officer said “welcome home,” and I started crying. I went to my friend Heidi’s house, where she was gracious and generous and warmly welcomed me back to the USA. I am going to remain ambiguous here about my legal status in Spain. Suffice it to say that returning knocked a weight off my chest. I will never fully recognize the obstacles that immigrants overcome. Spending just fourteen months overseas, in two cities that are far friendlier to non-natives, I cannot imagine how hard it must be elsewhere. Immigrants are stronger than steel and have insane determination and perseverance… words are just not capable of expressing my feelings on this truth.

So how does it feel? To be able to ask any question I want and understand every reply? To suddenly comprehend every conversation around me that is happening at TOP VOLUME? To be able to read every word on everything in my line of vision, instead of just 30%? To be expected to small talk with any stranger? To drive a car? To not translate? To not hear Reggaeton? To realize how far I am from the life I was building?

Yeah. Overwhelming.

I kept crying in public. Jamming my Spanish music into my ears and sometimes literally pressing the blaring headphones in to block out the American English. It wasn’t just the Americans, it was the 1000% of it all. Being used to stores the size of a Subway, and suddenly being 60 isles deep in Wal-Mart. I got tunnel vision. I got headaches and my eyes hurt. I would shut down, especially my first weekend, and stop talking to anyone; just stare at the floor.

Like in Bruce Almighty, when he can hear ALL THE PRAYERS AT ONCE? That’s how every public space felt. Like waking up and having a superpower to hear everyone’s thoughts. Why do I know about this stranger’s carb-free diet? Why do I know about the cost that man paid for his kid’s new lacrosse equipment? It’s too much, too loud, too everywhere, too different.

So am I home?

Why does coming home feel like visiting my old elementary school?

It’s smaller than I remembered, but bigger too. And duller. And bolder. This didn’t used to look like this… this place is so clean! It looks like the movies!

REALLY REALLY shocking was returning to Ohio and seeing Columbus. After five years there and only one away, it was outrageously different than I remembered. So much cleaner. The streets are HUGE. Everything is so close, but spread out too, and campus looked miniature. I’m not even being condescending. It was like taking drugs. You know it’s not how this thing looks, or has ever looked before, but that doesn’t change your perception of it in the present. And you can’t un-know this side of it too.

I was very fortunate to have Kelsey returning to the Midwest from Barcelona at the exact same time as me. We were able to share a lot of our excitement (POP TARTS! CHEETOS! REESE’S!) along with our feelings of extreme isolation. I was even more fortunate because she is a Harry Potter fan, which helps with our conversations about horcruxes.

Since I moved and started hacking it overseas, I realized the fracture I was making in my life. It best aligns with the horcruxes in Harry Potter. If you’ve made it this far without Harry Potter spoilers, congratulations, you are a robot. But for those of you who are not fans, a brief explanation: horcruxes are pieces of the same soul, separated and located in different vessels. On my bad days, that’s how I feel about my adventures. I have created multiple entities. I can no longer be contained or whole. Some of my best friends may never meet each other. I cannot take people to my favorite bar, order for them in Spanish, or go out and draw something else in my city.

But I moved out for a reason just as much as I moved back for a reason.

And to quote Tupac, that’s just the way it is.

I had a fantastic day today. I woke up in Madison and had breakfast with my friend before we worked together. I laughed my butt off with my coworkers. I made date plans with my boyfriend. I get to see my two uncles next week for the first time in years. I saw the lake in the quiet of morning, and it was beautiful. America, Wisconsin, look beautiful again, and my reverse culture shock (along with my seasonal depression) are behind me but not forgotten.

I have greater appreciation now for my life and the serendipity of it all. Maybe it sounds like hippy-dippy nonsense, but it doesn’t change my more peaceful and grateful mental state. Having translated my way to hell and back makes a parking ticket feel a lot less tragic. I know what I’ve learned about myself, especially about how strong and determined I can be.

Spending Christmas with my family overflowed my heart with joy, and I cried. I am so beyond happy that I went to Barcelona, and I feel just as happy about my decision to come home. My people, my places, my indescribable moments. I have lives I love equally on either side of the Atlantic.

It’s broken.

But so is a mosaic.

Thanks for reading and sharing in these stories with me. I appreciate you so much and I hope you’re well.

“The big question is whether you are going to be able to say a hearty ‘yes’ to your adventure.” -Joseph Campbell

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plusorminuscongress · 6 years

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New story in Politics from Time: Democrats Pick Milwaukee for 2020 National Convention

(MILWAUKEE) — Democrats chose Milwaukee on Monday to host Democrats’ 2020 national convention, setting the party’s standard-bearer to accept the presidential nomination in the heart of the old industrial belt that delivered Donald Trump to the White House.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez chose Milwaukee over Houston and Miami after deliberations lingered longer than party leaders or officials from the three finalist cities had expected.

The convention is scheduled for July 13-16, 2020.

It will be the first time in over a century that Democrats will be in a Midwest city other than Chicago to nominate their presidential candidate. Instead, the political spotlight will shine for a week on a metro area of about 1.6 million people. Once dubbed as “The Machine Shop of the World,” the famously working-class city also is known for its long love affair with beer and as the birthplace of Harley-Davidson motorcycles.

Republicans are set to gather in Charlotte, the largest city in battleground North Carolina, on Aug. 24-27, 2020.

Democrats see plenty of symbolism in Milwaukee after a bitter 2016 election defined by Hillary Clinton being nearly swept in what her campaign aides had confidently called a “Blue Wall” across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. That band of states twice sided with President Barack Obama, but Clinton held only Minnesota, ceding Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania — a combined 64 of the necessary 270 electoral votes — as white working-class voters flocked to Trump.

The president won Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes by about 23,000 votes out of almost 3 million cast, the first time since 1984 that Republicans claimed the state in a presidential election. Afterward, Clinton took withering criticism for not once visiting Wisconsin as a general election candidate.

Since then, Wisconsin voters have re-elected Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, ousted Republican Gov. Scott Walker in favor of Democrat Tony Evers and the state’s first black lieutenant governor, Mandela Barnes.

Wisconsin Democrats pointed to those midterm election results as they lobbied Perez and DNC officials, and presidential candidates already are paying attention. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar came to Wisconsin in one of her first trips as a declared candidate.

“A lot people feel that we lost (in 2016) because this area had been ignored — whether it’s from a political standpoint or whether it’s from a governing standpoint,” said Barnes, one of the members of the convention bid committee. Holding the convention in Milwaukee, Barnes added, says “we are ready to reinvest in the Midwest, that the Midwest matters again.”

In a political twist, Milwaukee officials have said the Republican Walker was instrumental in winning the convention. Democratic Party proceedings will play out in the new 17,500-seat arena that Walker helped build for the NBA’s Milwaukee Bucks by securing public financing from state lawmakers. Walker later lobbied GOP-leaning business leaders and donors to support Milwaukee’s effort to land the DNC.

Democratic officials in Washington said picking a convention site is as much about logistics as anything else, even as they acknowledge political optics and potential story lines.

On the logistics front, Milwaukee may have pulled somewhat of an upset, given its small footprint compared to Houston and Miami, cities long accustomed to hosting major events. Houston put on the Super Bowl as recently as February 2017.

Milwaukee organizers pitched their city — the Democratic stronghold of Wisconsin — as a resurgent downtown beyond just the arena and convention facilities. Home to some of the country’s biggest brewers, including Pabst, Schlitz, Miller and Blatz, the metro area has a redeveloped downtown, a hotel capacity exceeding 17,000 rooms and a new downtown streetcar line that opened in November.

Still, the city had to prove it has the overall capacity to satisfy the demands of tens of thousands of delegates, party activists, donors and media that will descend next summer.

DNC officials have said that the question wasn’t about hotel rooms, but whether Milwaukee has requisite venues for other convention staples, from daily sit-down breakfast meetings for 57 state and territorial delegations to evening events put on by state parties, corporations, lobbyists and donors. Even as Milwaukee officials insisted they have the venues, some deep-pocketed Democrats in nearby Chicago — a 90-minute drive — stepped in to note their proximity.

Houston and Miami, meanwhile, faced their own challenges.

Miami has an impressive concentration of luxury hotels, but many are in Miami Beach across bridges from downtown. That raised the prospect of delegates spending hours in traffic jams trying to get to convention facilities. The city’s arena also is not as new as in Milwaukee.

Houston had few if any logistical barriers. But according to party officials with knowledge of the process, the city’s organizing committee struggled to come up with the necessary financing without resorting to the oil and gas industry. That’s the city’s bread and butter, but it’s become anathema in Democratic politics because of the fossil fuel industry’s part in climate change. The city’s mayor also is embroiled in a long labor dispute with Houston firefighters — raising worries.

Also, though Houston and Miami are Democratic anchors in their states, Texas and Florida have no Democratic governor or senator between them.

By BILL BARROW, IVAN MORENO and SCOTT BAUER / AP on March 11, 2019 at 12:35PM

#Time #politics #PlusOrMinusCongress #±Congress #Indega±#IndegaPlusOrMinus #TimeMag #TimeMagazine

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promptmephlint · 7 years

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Just two midwestern boys out on a stroll.

(Things I forgot were a thing until I started writing this: Tornado Alley. I also had a bit of trouble with this because I like, cannot accurately tell ages via appearances and I’ve never seen Clint’s age listed for what age his parents died/he and Barney ran away from the orphanage, so my apologies. In this he ran away from the orphanage at the age of 12, which seems a bit too old, but in order to like remember people, I feel like he would have had to have been a bit older...I don’t know. Also: my rough draft for my major thesis is almost done. Hallelujah.

-Hannes)

Waverly, Iowa.

Midwest. A little south of Minnesota, a little west of Wisconsin. Part of Tornado Alley.

Actually, not that far from Phil’s hometown. Sometimes, he wondered. Late at night, when Clint was long-gone or dead-asleep beside him. Could they have met before Shield? Wondered if he’d actually seen Clint in the circus when his dad took him as a kid and just...never noticed. Wondered if he could’ve helped him sooner. Wondered what would’ve happened if he had.

He’s usually jolted out of this train of thought by a call from Fury or Clint rolling over onto him and snuggling close to his side.

Waverly, Iowa.

Phil is sure he’s never been here, sure he’s never set foot on Iowa soil. And yet, it’s familiar. Eerily familiar in an uncomfortable sense, like when you think you see someone you knew that you know died 2 years ago.

When Clint had received a letter from his old hometown, saying he was to be commended for his service at Shield and was to be given a ‘key to the city’, Phil was skeptical. From what Clint had told him about his childhood in Waverly, Phil was sure it wasn’t a place Clint would like to return to. And Clint had surprised him, as he always does, by accepting the comendation almost instantaneously.

And so here they were, strolling around Waverly the day before the ceremony. Everything seemed legitimate, and though Phil still had this inkling feeling that something was off, he kept it to himself. Holding hands, smiling, making general fools of themselves. Surprisingly, Clint seemed excited, as if old plastic diner booths and the over-arching smell of lilacs in the park and the slightly grease-stained motel carpet were the best things he’d ever seen. Phil had to admit, the town was pretty and the people seemed nice. Waving at Clint, with only the occasional few doing double-takes, with frightened eyes, like they’d seen a ghost.

It was only when they stopped for dinner, at another ‘Totally Different™, Not At All The Same Thing, Phil, Obviously This One Is Better” diner, that they finally met someone that Clint actually recognized. He’d frozen, for a second. Paused, and then smiled, fond and warm and Phil could feel himself smile despite himself. Nothing could ever cheer him up like a genuine smile from his husband. A few words exchanged, quick handshake, and then the other man was gone, Clint still happy as a clam. And that’s how it all began. Apparently, according to the second person they had run into, this diner had become a ‘hangout of sorts’ for most of the ‘old gang’ that Clint had apparently been in in the beginnings of middle school.

A big, dark-haired woman with a low voice and golden-shining earrings eventually approached them with their food and Clint had recognized her as well. She’d introduced herself as Sheila and reminisced about old times in what Phil assumed as late elementary school, but it was never truly specified. Tales of old nemeses (that guy who threw erasers at Clint during math class and the slew of kids who apparently teased Sheila) and rumors of how old teachers were doing nowadays.

Another, older woman came into the diner halfway through their meal, stopped dead cold in her tracks with a scowl the size of Texas before it morphed into an odd half-smile, half-smirk.

“Is that Clinton? Clinton Francis Barton?” She’d yelled across the diner, voice soft, but clear.

“Well there’s the old bitch now. How are ya, Ms. Schefield?” Clint waved as Sheila snickered beside him.

“Heard you’re gettin’ a key to the city, boy.” Ms. Schefield tottered over to their table, cane in her hand bedazzled with too many green rhinestones.

“Yeah, proud of me?” Clint smiled and it was obviously meant in an inflammatory way, as if he were expecting her to deny it or shoot him down.

“Always proud of my old students when they do something good. Keep up the good work, Francis.” Ms. Schefield limped away and Clint looked like he’d been shot.

“Yeah, she’s calmed down a lot in recent years. Sorry, pal.” Sheila left the booth after giving Clint her number on a napkin and patting him on the shoulder. Phil smiled as Clint tucked the napkin away in the breast pocket of his flannel, hand lingering over it.

Sappy, sentimental fool.

“Seems like you used to know a lot of people around here.” Phil commented after they’d made it back to the motel for the night. Clint looked at him, rolled over on the bed and wrapped an arm around Phil, head resting languidly on his partner’s chest.

“Friends are a blessing for kids who don’t have a good home to go back to. My parent’s house was war when my dad came home, and after they died, the orphanage wasn’t much better, y’know?” Clint smiled, “I remember all the good times with all of them and try to forget everything else. I suppose that’s what people would call ‘coping’.”

“Memories are all we have in the end; coping or not, they’re good to keep close by,” Phil kissed the top of his head and shut his eyes, “Hope our memories together will be as good as the ones you have with all of them.”

“I’m sure they will be, babe.” Clint nuzzled into Phil’s chest as they both drifted off to sleep.

#phlint #Phil Coulson #clint barton #promptmephlint #clintcoulson #c/c #hawkeye #Agent Coulson #bowtie's #shieldhusbands #prompt fill: anonymous #anonymous #admin hannes #hannes writing

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truesportsfan · 5 years

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NFL combine marks start of Jets’ offseason answers

INDIANAPOLIS — The NFL offseason hits another gear this week with the NFL Scouting Combine. There are three weeks to go before free agency and two months before the NFL draft, but rumors, reports and whispers will be flowing in this Midwest city this week.

The Jets arrive with plenty of questions to answer and roster holes to fill. Both general manager Joe Douglas and coach Adam Gase are scheduled to speak to the media on Tuesday afternoon.

The Jets brain trust is searching for a way to end the team’s nine-year playoff drought and stretch of four straight losing seasons. Here are some of the storylines that will surround the Jets this week:

The Joe Douglas Show

Douglas replaced Mike Maccagnan as GM last June, so even though he’s been around for a while, this will be his first combine in charge and he will be under the microscope. The Jets brought Douglas in because he is highly respected in the scouting community and he had a large amount of responsibility with the Eagles. Now, he will be running his own show.

The task is daunting for Douglas. The Jets have holes all over the roster — offensive line, wide receiver, edge rusher and cornerback are the headliners. When Douglas arrived he found a roster that had some high-end talent but no depth. Building depth will be a big part of his mission this offseason and that comes with strong drafting in the middle and late rounds.

Whoa Line

There is no question about what the Jets’ biggest area of need is. Douglas needs to rebuild the offensive line. The Jets could have as many as four new starters in 2020. The offensive line last season was atrocious for most of the year and a direct reason why Sam Darnold and Le’Veon Bell both struggled.

The Jets could potentially use their first two draft picks on offensive linemen. At No. 11, they should be able to draft one of the top tackles. There is a group of five tackles viewed as the top tier who will be on display this week — Georgia’s Andrew Thomas, Louisville’s Mekhi Becton, Alabama’s Jedrick Wills, Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs and Houston’s Josh Jones.

In the second round, the Jets could take a center or guard. LSU’s Lloyd Cushenberry, Wisconsin’s Tyler Biadasz and Temple’s Matt Hennessy could be available.

Robby’s Future

The scouting combine is not all about future NFL players. This is also where current players who are free agents get discussed in meetings between agents and the teams. For the Jets, their biggest impending free agent is wide receiver Robby Anderson.

The Jets would like to re-sign Anderson, but are not willing to break the bank for him. This week, Anderson’s agent should get a sense of what the market is for his client and the Jets will have a better idea of whether he will be part of their future or not. Anderson’s speed is going to entice someone to spend big money on him. It won’t be surprising if he is playing somewhere else next year.

Extending Jamal

Safety Jamal Adams is not a free agent. In fact, the team has him under its control for at least two more years, possibly three if it wants to use the franchise tag in 2022. However, his contract is going to be one of the biggest stories of the offseason. Adams is eligible for an extension and he said last month at the Super Bowl he expects one.

Talks between the Jets and Adams’ agent could heat up this week, although this still feels like it could drag on for a while. Adams will actually be in Indianapolis over the weekend, serving as an analyst for the NFL Network’s coverage of the defensive back drills. Maybe he and Douglas can hammer out a contract over a shrimp cocktail at St. Elmo’s.

The Le’Veon Saga

Both Gase and Douglas will get questions about Bell’s future with the team, a topic that never seems to go away. The latest issue is an ESPN report last week citing anonymous sources that the team felt Bell gained weight and was sluggish toward the end of the season. Gase is going to have to have a better answer for the Bell questions this time than he did the day after the season.

Bell is due to make $13.5 million guaranteed this season, so any trade scenarios seem slim. Gase and Douglas need to make Bell feel wanted with their answers to the media this week.

source https://truesportsfan.com/sport-today/nfl-combine-marks-start-of-jets-offseason-answers/

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theliberaltony · 5 years

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

There will likely be months of debate over who presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden should pick as his running mate — and what criteria he should use in making that decision.

We already know one such criterion: Biden has pledged to choose a woman. But what else is he looking for in a vice presidential nominee?

One view of the vice presidential selection process, often expressed by people who themselves work for campaigns, is that the presidential nominee is making a personal choice, opting for someone whom he or she connects with and feels would be a strong partner in governing. Another view, according to research we (Adler and Azari) have done, is that the vice presidential choice often reflects broader dynamics in the party. In this view the nominee often chooses a running mate who connects with some broader goal of the party or who helps appeal to some faction or ideological bloc in the party that is not well represented by the candidate at the top of the ticket.

It’s really hard for us to establish whether Biden enjoys chatting more with Sen. Kamala Harris or Sen. Amy Klobuchar, so we’re going to take a party-centered approach to this question. We can look at the Democratic Party and some of its goals and use those as a rubric to evaluate some of Biden’s potential running mates. We have focused here on women who are either governors or senators — the traditional resumes of a vice presidential pick — but have also included a few noteworthy figures who don’t hold statewide office.

Goal 1: Help with electability, real or imagined

Helps: Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer

Hurts: Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts

Beating President Trump is almost certainly the Democratic Party’s main goal at the moment. So which potential running mates would make the Democratic ticket more electable?

Let’s talk about actual, factual electability first — that is, helping Biden defeat Trump by bringing voters to his coalition who wouldn’t otherwise be there. The electoral effects of vice presidential choices are somewhat complicated to study because the sample size is so small — we’ve had only 18 presidential elections since the end of World War II.

The broad consensus among scholars is that the electoral effect of running mates is not clear and obvious — and probably somewhat modest. In other words, we should not assume that choosing Harris or former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams would boost Biden with black voters, that Baldwin, Klobuchar or Whitmer would attract voters in the Midwest, or that Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto would help in Nevada. Nor should we assume that any of these female politicians would particularly connect with female voters. For example, in their upcoming book, “Do Running Mates Matter?,” political scientists Christopher J. Devine and Kyle C. Kopko downplay a lot of the electoral effects of running mates, based on their research. They argue that there is little evidence that picking a person from a particular region helps in that region or that choosing a person from a demographic group helps with voters in that demographic. They also reject the idea that running mates boost the tickets in their home states, a conclusion other scholars and experts have reached as well.

Other academics are slightly more bullish on running mates’ potential electoral impact. Historically, vice presidential picks have boosted the ticket by 2-3 percentage points in their home states according to political scientists Boris Heersink and Brenton D. Peterson. Some scholars have found that Republican Catholics are less likely to vote for the GOP ticket if the Democratic running mate is Catholic and that in 2008 then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin boosted turnout among fellow conservatives. Devine and Kopko themselves argue that vice presidential choices matter because they can affect how voters see the presidential nominee in ways that sometimes have electoral effects. According to their research, Sen. John McCain’s selection of Palin as his running mate caused a rise in negative views of McCain because of voters’ perception that Palin was unqualified for the position.

“Any time you talk about a running mate winning votes, you’re really talking about voters choosing a suboptimal president in order to elect their preferred vice president; otherwise, the running mate didn’t actually change votes but just reinforced a preexisting preference. So, suffice it to say, we’re pretty skeptical that such effects will occur very often or to a significant degree,” Devine told us in an email message.

He added, “By choosing a woman — or, say, an African-American woman, in particular — Biden … would be sending a message to voters about who he is — specifically, that he is someone who values diversity and the role that women — or African American women, in particular — play in American society and in the Democratic Party. That message probably would help to win him some votes. But we’re not exactly talking about ‘delivering’ large blocs of voters.”

So let’s say the electoral impact of vice presidential choices is complicated. Here’s what’s not in dispute: Party elites, presidential campaign advisers and sometimes presidential nominees themselves often believe that vice presidential candidates will have an outsize electoral impact, whatever the reality is. For example, according to his memoirs, McCain felt that Palin might attract moderate Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic primary.

So who do party elites think is the best vice presidential nominee to help Biden electorally? They consistently said that Warren was weak on electability when she was running for president, so this metric won’t help her cause.

Abrams has an electability perception problem too. She is nothing like Palin, but Democratic elites we have talked to are wary that voters won’t like pairing someone who has never held an elective office higher than state representative with a 77-year-old presidential nominee. A wide body of research suggests that presidential nominees generally pick a running mate who has a lot of political experience, usually at the national level, likely to address concerns about whether the running mate is ready to be president if necessary.

Party elites tend to indicate that the Democrats’ path to victory is winning white voters in the Midwest — as opposed to firing up more liberal voters or increasing support among people of color. So this metric (party elites’ perceptions of electability) would likely favor Baldwin, Klobuchar and Whitmer in particular.

Goal 2: Balance the ticket demographically — particularly on race and ethnicity

Helps: Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, Sen. Kamala Harris of California, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, Abrams, Cortez Masto

Hurts: Baldwin, Klobuchar, Warren, Whitmer … basically anyone who is white

Close to 40 percent of registered Democratic voters identify as Asian, black, Hispanic or something other than white.1 And the Democratic Party cares deeply about racial diversity. An all-white ticket might happen, but it would get lots of blowback. The same is likely true of an all-male ticket — hence, Biden’s pledge. Already, House Majority Whip James Clyburn, whose endorsement of Biden seemed to help the former vice president win big in South Carolina, is calling for him to name a black woman as his running mate.

This kind of demographic balancing has occurred in the past two Democratic primaries. The major contenders to be Obama’s running mate in 2008 were all white men, and the top contenders to be Clinton’s running mate in 2016 were nearly all men.

Currently, only one woman of color is a governor (Lujan Grisham), and only four are U.S. senators (Hawaii’s Mazie Hirono, Cortez Masto, Duckworth, Harris). So it’s likely that Cortez Masto, Duckworth, Harris and Lujan Grisham all will get a serious look from Biden and his team and that they will also consider more nontraditional choices, like Abrams and U.S. Rep Val Demings of Florida, in part to meet the party’s demand for a racially diverse ticket. (Hirono will turn 73 on Election Day, and we doubt Biden would pick a running mate who’s nearly his age.)

Goal 3: Balance the ticket ideologically

Helps: Abrams, Harris, Warren

Hurts: Klobuchar

The other main balancing goal that presidential nominees typically have, in addition to demographics, is ideology. In 1988, the Democratic nominee, Gov. Michael Dukakis, sought to counteract his reputation as a Massachusetts liberal by choosing one of the party’s more moderate figures, then-Sen. Lloyd Bentsen of Texas. In 2012, the GOP nominee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, considered insufficiently conservative by some Republicans, chose as his running mate someone beloved by the GOP’s right wing: then-Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

By this metric, Klobuchar would not be an ideal running mate for Biden. She has a somewhat centrist record, as does he, and took fairly similar positions to the former vice president during the Democratic primary, such as panning the idea of Medicare for All. Choosing her as his running mate would intensify the criticism of Biden from the party’s left wing, who would likely complain that he is expecting liberals to vote for him while essentially ignoring their wishes.

Warren, of course, is firmly on the left. Harris is pretty left, based on her voting record in the Senate. But as California’s attorney general from 2011 to 2017, Harris took some conservative stances and as a 2020 presidential candidate didn’t embrace Sen. Bernie Sanders’s Medicare for All approach or a wealth tax. Abrams hasn’t taken Sanders-style stances on economic issues, but she is well known for her work on voting rights issues, which might lead to her being perceived by voters and activists as being left. Also, some political science research suggests that black candidates are often perceived to be more liberal than they actually are. In other words, if Biden picks Abrams or Harris, he could both appease some on the left and not annoy more centrist people in the party who may not like Warren.

Goal 4: Help Democrats gain a Senate majority

Helps: Duckworth, Harris

Hurts: Baldwin, Warren

This is a newer factor, without a lot of historical precedent in either party. But control of the U.S. Senate is in play in 2020. And if the Republicans retain the most of the seats, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell could block much of what a new Democratic president tries to do, just as the Kentucky Republican limited Obama while he was in office. For this reason, some Democratic activists are wary of picking a sitting Democratic senator for the vice presidency if there is any possibility that person will be replaced by a Republican.

If Duckworth or Harris became vice president, the Democratic governors of their respective states would pick their replacements, who would serve until a special election is held in 2022. Democrats would be favored to keep those Senate seats because Illinois and California lean heavily Democratic. Minnesota (Klobuchar) and Nevada (Cortez-Masto) also have Democratic governors who would appoint a replacement through 2022, but they are more swing-y states, so Democrats could eventually lose those seats in 2022. In Massachusetts (Warren) and Wisconsin (Baldwin), there would be a special election in 2021. The incumbent in the Bay State would likely be a Republican since GOP governor Charlie Baker would pick the person. (Democrats in Massachusetts do have some potential workarounds, however.) This dynamic is a real problem for Baldwin, though, since Republicans might be slightly favored in a special election in Wisconsin.

This is an informal list of criteria. You could certainly include other measures — ours are not necessarily exhaustive or even the best measures. But the history of vice presidential selections suggests that the process is not dominated by questions that perhaps should matter the most, such as:

Is this person best qualified to run the nation if the president cannot finish his term in office?

Is this person a great manager who can help lead the executive branch of the government?

Is this person well versed in policy?

Is this person the best choice to become the next-in-line presidential candidate for the party?

Perhaps Biden’s considerations will change as a result of the novel coronavirus, which means the next president could enter office with a true national crisis on his hands. But we’re skeptical that the vice presidential selection will be much different than in the past.

In any case, looking at the party-based criteria, here’s how things shake out for Abrams, Harris, Klobuchar and Warren, who The New York Times recently reported are senior Democratic Party officials’ leading choices for Biden’s running mate. (We’ve also included Duckworth, who’s a more obscure senator than Warren, but we wanted to note how favorably she looks compared with her in terms of these party-based metrics):

Harris: three positives, no negatives.

Abrams: two positives, no negatives.

Duckworth: two positives, no negatives.

Klobuchar: one positive, two negatives.

Warren: one positive, three negatives.

You might be thinking, “Harris was a dud as a presidential candidate,” but often that doesn’t matter. And as with George H.W. Bush, Al Gore, Dick Cheney and Biden, the person who gets elected vice president is often someone who at some point flirted with a presidential run or actually ran for the top of the ticket and lost. What this exercise suggests is that Harris fits the party’s goals fairly well for a running mate alongside Biden — she’s to the left of him ideologically, she’s not white, the party won’t lose a Senate seat if she becomes vice president, and some people in the party will assume she helps with electablity by appealing to black voters in particular. We’re not predicting that Biden will pick her — he might decide that perceived electability trumps everything else and go with Klobuchar or Whitmer or another Midwestern white woman. He might decide that Warren’s policy chops are particularly useful in the midst of a crisis like the coronavirus pandemic and that placating the party’s left wing is important for symbolic and electoral reasons. But Biden is a party man, and Harris is a party choice.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #William D. Adler #Julia Azari and Perry Bacon Jr.

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thisdaynews · 5 years

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Why Trump’s path to reelection is totally plausible

New Post has been published on https://thebiafrastar.com/why-trumps-path-to-reelection-is-totally-plausible/

Why Trump’s path to reelection is totally plausible

In recent days, the three of us have been making the rounds with White House and campaign officials, as well as senior Republicans aligned with them, asking a simple question: If Trump ends up celebrating the 2020 holidays with a second term in hand, how did it happen?

The answers are notable precisely because they are prosaic and straightforward, and involve strategic bets that are already plainly visible. The bets do not require fantastic leaps of logic or probability, nor rank incompetence by whoever becomes the Democratic nominee. Trump strategists differ modestly on some details, or use different language to say the same thing, but all describe a plan that rests on three pillars:

—Narrative:First, the campaign intends to repackage Trump, within the narrow limits possible for a politician whose public image is already indelibly cast. The message: Sure, Trump is wild, but a disruptive character is precisely what’s needed to disrupt a failed status quo and force change. Second, the campaign will use its overwhelming financial advantage to repackage — i.e., viciously demolish — the public image of whoever becomes the Democratic nominee.

—Turnout:Trump aides assert they can outperform their polls in key states by 2 percentage points or more, on the strength of a voter ID, mobilization, and turnout operation that likely will be vastly better organized and staffed than what Democrats will be able to muster. Recall that in 2016, Trump lost the national popular vote to Hillary Clinton by three million votes; his team fully expects this dynamic could happen again, with an agitated and energized electorate they expect could grow by as much as 20 million people from the 138 million who turned out last election. But they correctly point to public polls that show he is fully competitive with prospective Democrats in the small number of states that will be essential to either side if the Electoral College landscape remains mostly as it was in 2016. Yes, Trump’s divisive personality means that a lot more Democrats will turn out to vote against him. But that divisive personality — combined with a superior digital strategy and a more robust volunteer network — means that the ranks of Trump voters in key states could grow by even more.

—Minority voters:Really?Yes, really. As Alex Isenstadt and Maya King wrote in POLITICO last week, Trump will use highly targeted advertising in key states combined with the presidential podium to tout how the robust economy has helped African Americans. If the notion provokes eye rolls — how does someone despised by Democrats more than any president in generations expect to cut into Democrats’ most loyal constituency? — recall that this strategy does not need to work a lot in order to be pivotal at the margins.

Give the Trump strategists credit where it is due. Unaligned Republican operatives and even veteran Democrats say the strategy amounts to the most credible approach available given the challenge of electing a polarizing politician who will never exhibit restraint or discipline imposed by political handlers or anyone else. The strategy is not exotic, and in fact draws significantly from the reelection strategies used by George W. Bush in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2012 — both presidents who also faced unpopular polls and a highly motivated opposition a year out from their second-term victories.

But also give these Trump strategists skepticism where it is due. They are describing a narrow,kinda-makes-sense-if-things-break-their-waypath to a second term that would be wide, in a roaring economy, if Trump were a more conventional president. (See POLITICO, “What if Trump weren’t nuts?” from last week). What they are describing also is a path that only works if the country has fundamentally the same character and mood as the one where Trump shocked the establishment of both parties in 2016.

Another possibility — suggested strongly by the Democrats’ rout of Republicans in the 2018 midterms — is that the broader landscape of American politics has shifted decisively, in large measure because of revulsion by well-educated suburbanites, especially women, against Trump. If so, no amount of organization, money, or strategic skill is likely to turn the tide.

What follows below is some more on each of these three pillars — along with some critical “yes, but” analysis to be considered before putting too much faith in the ebullient bluster of Trump and GOP operatives.

It takes a Trump

The narrative battles described by Trump operatives to modestly reframe the president’s image are already vigorously underway. A vivid example was the ad buy he purchased during this year’s World Series. “He’s no Mr. Nice Guy,” the narrator intoned, “but sometimes it takes a Donald Trump to change Washington.”

It is not an utterly inconceivable image rehab, especially with the support of movement conservatives (many of whom were still watching Trump warily in 2016) and a strong economy. A poll last year by the Harris organization for the Harvard Center for American Political Studies asked people to agree or disagree with a series of statements. The second-highest response, with 58 percent, is people who agreed the president is “vulgar.” But the highest? That he is “a disruptor of conventional Washington, D.C. politics.”

Probably of greater importance will be the effort to define, in sharply negative terms, the Democratic nominee. Trump aides don’t disguise that they’d welcome an opponent, like Sens. Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, who they can denounce as socialist or far too liberal. But they also maintain that Democratic positions generally, especially on climate change in industrial Midwest states, will give them plenty to work with on policy and personal grounds even if the nominee is a more centrist figure like former Vice President Joe Biden or Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

The essential point isn’t the novelty of this strategy but its routine nature. Trump hopes to use his campaign’s enormous financial resources — his campaign has $83 million in cash on hand, and the Republican National Committee has $61 million in the bank compared to $8 million for the Democratic National Committee — to attack the Democratic nominee before he or she can replenish resources after a long nomination fight. That’s exactly what Obama did to Mitt Romney in 2012.

Yes, but:There is a virtually endless list of rebuttal or qualifying points to the Trump argument. The two most important are related. Trump’s barrage of complaints about impeachment, and his random insults of people like 16-year-old Greta Thunberg, are always about what happens to be onHISmind. Could any voter possibly believe that Trump is more concerned about their future than he is about himself? Even if you are a Trump supporter, can you answer in a crisp sentence, “If Trump gets a second term he will use it to accomplish BLANK?”

He has time to fill in that gap, especially at the upcoming State of the Union address. But the last three presidents to get reelected — Obama, Bush, and Bill Clinton — were relentlessly disciplined in their campaign messaging. Trump aides know that’s too much to wish for. Of a recent day when Trump tweeted a (then) record 123 times, a veteran GOP strategist said, “That’s about 110 times to many.”

The organizational edge

Once again, Trump’s strategy is not about breaking precedent so much as exploiting advantages that have worked often for incumbent presidents. Incumbents lose usually when the economy is weak and/or they face ideological opposition within their own party — neither of which is true for him.

Time and money not spent fighting for the nomination is a big advantage — and it may not matter much that this advantage is offset by bleak national polls. The Trump team says in background interviews that it is making targeted efforts in 17 states, but a much smaller number will get the lion’s share of attention.

If the electoral map remains otherwise unchanged from 2016, Democrats would need to win back three states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin — to take back the presidency.

Trump operatives do not deny that they are in rough shape with affluent suburban voters, who were once an essential part of the GOP coalition. But they say that in 2016, almost 40 percent of the eligible voting age population did not cast ballots, and they maintain this group gives Trump ample opportunity to grow his vote. Trump strategists maintain the broader map is changing only at the margins. They will fight to keep Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona in the GOP column, and make noises about flipping some states that went Democratic last time, including Minnesota, New Mexico and New Hampshire. Notably, they regard Virginia, once a critical battleground, as strongly Democratic and probably out of reach.

The key in every competitive state is outperforming public polls, on the combination of data and door-knocking. White House senior adviser Jared Kushner is immersed in the effort, along with campaign manager Brad Parscale.

Republican National Committe chair Ronna McDaniel, leading the national party effort, said in an interview that Democrats “are so far behind” at state-level organization “they’ll never catch up this election … even with all the outside money pouring in.”

“You can’t build a two-million-person-strong volunteer base that’s well-versed on the apps and the technology and do the door-knocking in a month,” she added. “If you’re not in the states now, grooming those volunteers and engaging them and training them, it doesn’t just happen.”

Yes, but:The notion that Trump can energize new voters who didn’t come out for him in 2016 is speculative. The erosion — threatening to become a full collapse — of GOP support with suburban women is a demonstrated phenomenon, vividly on display in off-year elections in 2017, in the 2018 congressional midterms that vaulted Nancy Pelosi back to the House speakership, and again in off-year and special elections this year. Trump, meanwhile, is facing demoralized ranks among some establishment GOP figures in the states, who won’t be doing much to help his cause. It is far from clear the Trump loyalists who took their places are first-rate, and even in the best of circumstances it is hard for either party to get previous non-voters or infrequent voters to the polls.

Race Matters

In this case the Trump boasts about boosting its vote among African-Americans and the yes-but are interwoven. He got 8 percent of the vote in 2016. If he bumped that up to low double digits, the gains — small in absolute numbers but consequential in relative terms — could be decisive in a close state vote. African-American and Hispanic unemployment numbers during Trump’s term have reached record lows. Polls have showed higher approval ratings for Trump among African American men than women, amid indications that men admire his strong personality but women recoil at his bullying demeanor.

At this point, the notion of Trump cutting into a Democratic stronghold constituency is intriguing but must be takencum grano salis.

As for Hispanics, exit polls showed Trump basically performed the same as Romney did in 2012 — one point better, with 27 percent. Given Trump’s exploitation of the illegal immigration issue, with inflammatory rhetoric and detention policies, there’s scant evidence to support Trump advisers’ tepid predictions that they will grow this figure.

In sum, the Trump team can give cogent answers to the question — How will Trump win? — and they are faking it well (as skilled operatives usually do) if they don’t actually believe what they are saying. But there are too many imponderable assumptions embedded in those answers for anyone but Trump partisans to embrace them as fully credible.

#Foreign #plausible #Politics #totally

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elfigmlinkbf16insurance-blog · 5 years

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hartford auto insurance quote online

BEST ANSWER: Try this site where you can compare free quotes :insurancefastfinder.top

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easyfoodnetwork · 4 years

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Dannie Sue Balakas/Instagram While other flour companies have faced pandemic-related shortages, the Southern staple has been quietly filling the void at grocery stores around the country As many home-bound Americans began baking to feed and distract themselves from the coronavirus pandemic, Schanon Odell of Crown Pacific Fine Foods was making frantic phone calls to every flour mill in the country. Odell’s job at the Seattle-area specialty food distributor includes helping her grocery store clients keep flour in stock, and so she resolved to find anyone that might have it. One day in late March, she spent 10 straight hours calling and calling, only to get the same answer from everyone who picked up: all sold out. But there was one exception: As she searched the internet for flour mills, “White Lily kept coming up,” Odell says. She was only vaguely aware of the special place that the flour occupies in the canon of Southern baking, but as she worked her way through the company’s phone tree, she focused less on what White Lily was and more on securing 4,000 cases of flour — about 160,000 pounds — to distribute to stores around the Pacific Northwest, like Zupan’s in Portland, Oregon, Kroger’s QFC stores, and independent shops like Red Apple Market on Seattle’s Beacon Hill. The shipment of White Lily arrived at Red Apple Market just in time for Jill Lightner’s husband to replenish the flour stash that Lightner, a food writer, was quickly stress-baking her way through. “I had just been putting ‘buy more flour’ on the shopping list every time he went,” she says. When her husband returned with a bag of White Lily, announcing, “This is all they had,” Lightner, who had gone to high school in rural Virginia, knew what she had lucked into. “Why didn’t you buy 50 bags?” she asked. The same scene played out from Iowa to San Jose, as White Lily flour appeared mysteriously on shelves far from its usual Southern distribution area. Bakers familiar with the product went to stores braced to find bottom-of-the-barrel flour, only to come upon the brand they had often wished they could get locally. From outposts in the North, Midwest, and West, they posted gleefully on social media. “When you find the flour, you make the biscuits,” said a baker in Wisconsin. In Brooklyn, a shopper wondered, “What is this magic happening with the flour supply chain?” White Lily declined to comment on the expanded distribution to Eater, but David Ortega, an associate professor in the department of agriculture, food and resource economics at Michigan State University, points out that some of the recent flour distribution quirks can be tied to the significant loss of major wholesale customers like food service and bakeries, combined with high demand at the retail level. “One of the major obstacles to this switch was packaging,” he says over email — which means that any flour company that had recently stocked up on retail-size bags found itself best prepared to meet demand. “Flour processing is much more mechanized (relative to say meat processing plants), so it hasn’t been affected by processing disruption to the extent that other sectors have,” Ortega adds. “My guess is that While Lily and other companies expanded their markets out of necessity (loss in food industry customers) and, to an extent, opportunity (surge in demand in supermarkets).” Whatever the reason, it made many home bakers happy. Known for its soft, light texture, White Lily flour has long held a near-mythological status in the South as the secret to the perfect biscuit, much in the same way that New Yorkers believe that the city’s water is the secret to the perfect bagel. In The Gift of Southern Cooking, the renowned champion of the region’s foodways, Edna Lewis, named it as an essential ingredient to great biscuits. On her blog, Southern Souffle, the recipe developer, food writer, and biscuit-pop-up chef Erika Council echoed Lewis’s sentiment, writing that White Lily killed the “hard as a rock” and “difficult to make” biscuit myths. And yet, despite the ostensible transportability of a bag of flour, finding White Lily outside of the Southeastern United States is normally only nominally easier than getting New York City tap water in Arizona. The only other time Lightner remembers seeing it for sale in Seattle was years ago, when she found a “daintily sized” bag at a Williams-Sonoma holiday pop-up for a premium price. She bought it anyway. When Atlantic writer Amanda Mull, who was born in Georgia, wrote about the brand in 2018, she reported that she couldn’t find any retailers who carried it north of Richmond, Virginia, or west of Oklahoma (though Surfas in Los Angeles does occasionally). You can find it on Amazon, though it’s sold there at about 500 percent of grocery store cost. The legend of White Lily began in 1883, when it was founded in Knoxville, Tennessee. Its flour’s ethereal nature is partially attributable to the fact that it is milled from soft red winter wheat, which results in a flour with only 9 percent protein — significantly lower than King Arthur’s 11.7 percent or Gold Medal’s 10.5 percent. A flour’s protein content is important because it corresponds directly with how much gluten forms when the flour comes into contact with a liquid. For a strong loaf with structure and chewiness, bakers look for a high-protein flour, like bread flour, which has up to 13 percent protein. But for biscuits, lower protein content, and thus lower gluten, keeps them from becoming too dense. But plenty of flours have lower protein levels: Pastry flour contains around 9 percent, and cake flour between 7 and 9 percent. White Lily’s true secret, according to a 2008 New York Times story, lies in its milling and bleaching processes. Its all-purpose flour is milled only from the heart of the wheat’s endosperm, the purest part, and is more finely milled and sifted than other flours — its packaging even boasts that it’s “Pre-Sifted.” Unlike many all-purpose flours, it is also bleached with chlorine, which weakens the flour’s proteins. The result is so light that the White Lily website warns that when measuring by volume, rather than weight, two extra tablespoons per cup of flour are required in standard recipes. “I’ve been so worried I’m going to run out, I haven’t used it for anything but biscuits.” When the J.M. Smucker Co. bought White Lily in 2007, it closed the company’s Knoxville mill and moved production to the Midwest, much to the dismay of many of the flour’s fans. White Lily had previously gone through more than a half-dozen corporate owners, including national names like Tyson Foods and Archer Daniels Midland. In 2018, Smucker sold it yet again, this time to Hometown Food Company, the parent company of Pillsbury. But despite how often it has changed hands, White Lily has managed to remain quintessentially Southern enough that Lightner compares it to a souvenir: “If I am near a Winn-Dixie or a Piggly Wiggly, I’m going to buy it and bring it back,” she says, “along with a suitcase full of grits.” For her part, Odell, the specialty food distributor, is surprised to see how well the flour has resonated with retailers outside of the South. “Every day, people are ordering,” she says. “I think people are recognizing it and want to purchase it.” Dannie Sue Balakas is one them. Born in Tennessee and currently living in West Michigan, she was thrilled when White Lily showed up at her local Meijer, and started buying a bag every time she shopped there. Because shoppers are still limited to one bag per person, she rations it accordingly. “I’ve been so worried I’m going to run out, I haven’t used it for anything but biscuits,” she says, describing those biscuits as “super fluffy and the best I’ve ever had.” Fear of running out is a legitimate concern: Shelves in the South were also emptied of flour, and while Odell says her supply has been mostly consistent, it hasn’t been seamless. For Dean Hasegawa, the general manager of the Red Apple where Lightner bought her White Lily, the store’s White Lily purchase was a one-time deal so that Hasegawa could cover the flour shortage — and even with it, he still had to re-bag and price out 50-pound food-service bags of other flours into retail sizes. “It’s not something I will normally stock,” he says, and while he heard some excitement over it, he believes that most of his customers were simply happy to see flour. Still, the customer enthusiasm inspires Odell. Her local QFC stores talked about wanting to keep White Lily on their shelves even as flour stocks normalize, but the Cincinnati-based buyer from Kroger, which owns QFC, insisted that people in the Northwest wouldn’t buy Southern flour. “I’d like to keep it if I can,” says Odell, but first she needs to prove that people care about White Lily and not just flour in general. “Maybe when the dust settles, I’ll be able to tell if it’s a viable product,” she says. But for true biscuit fanatics, White Lily’s all-purpose flour isn’t even the true prize: In West Michigan, Balakas has “been praying” that stores will start stocking its coveted self-rising flour. But even if they don’t, you can mail order it from Walmart (with free shipping, if you order enough else) or, per White Lily’s website, simply add 1½ teaspoons of baking powder and ½ teaspoon of salt to each cup of the all-purpose flour. While they may be effective, though, neither of those methods have the same magic as wandering the baking aisle expecting nothing and coming upon a treasure — and, in, the process recapturing a tiny fragment of the joy that grocery shopping once held. from Eater - All https://ift.tt/2Cg2NBT

http://easyfoodnetwork.blogspot.com/2020/06/white-lily-flour-has-long-held-near.html

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helloworlddemo1122-yahoopar-blog · 6 years

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Tony Awards 2018: Taylor Louderman Becomes the Queen Bee of Broadway (Exclusive)

Taylor Louderman, nominated for playing Regina George in Mean Girls, is one of ET’s Standout Performances on Broadway.

In the Broadway version of Mean Girls, Tina Fey’s musical adaptation of the 2004 teen film that she also wrote, Regina George and her cohorts Gretchen Wieners and Karen Smith make their long-awaited entrance on a high school cafeteria table during the show’s fourth number, “Meet the Plastics.” And just like that, the show belongs to Taylor Louderman, Mean Girls’ newest queen bee and 2018 Tony nominee for Best Leading Actress in a Musical.

Backstage, however, before making her debut, Louderman takes her time transforming into the high school teen. “I am not even ready at all by the time everybody else is starting the show,” the actress reveals to ET, still in street clothes when the production gets underway. But soon, the makeup is applied, her hair is done and the clothing is on. Louderman is joined by Ashley Park and Kate Rockwell (who play Gretchen and Karen, respectively) as they gather around the cafeteria table in their “power poses,” before hair supervisor Joshua First does a final fix of the hair and Louderman’s dresser Andrae Gonzalo -- yes, the former Project Runway contestant -- gives a tug on her pants.

“Kate and Ashley will put their hands on my legs and that’s when I start feeling it, but it’s not until the music hits that I really feel it,” Louderman says, no longer a small town girl from the Midwest but the most beloved and feared high school teen on Broadway.

Born in Madison, Wisconsin, and later growing up outside of St. Louis, Missouri, Louderman started acting at the age of 10, playing the title role in a local production of “Annie.” She eventually worked her way from regional theater gigs to Broadway, where she made her debut as Campbell in the musical adaptation of Bring It On, which was followed by Wendy Darling in NBC’s Peter Pan Live! and back to Broadway in Kinky Boots.

“Did I ever think I would be getting to play Regina George on Broadway? No!” gushers Louderman. The 27-year-old actress could not be more humble or different from her onstage persona, adding, “I’ll take the challenge.”

Not only does the original film about a homeschooled girl entering high school and navigating the tricky relationships between teen girls have diehard fans who have been anxiously awaiting the stage version, Louderman is taking on an iconic character originated onscreen by Rachel McAdams, an actress who has emerged from a generation of teen actors to become an Oscar-nominated performer and someone Louderman reveres. “I really look up to her,” she says. “This is unreal to get to play a role that she originated.”

Not only that, but Louderman also gets to work with Fey, who has been very hands-on with the production, sitting in on auditions (“She was very kind and gave me a laugh,” Louderman recalls) and working closely with the actors throughout rehearsals and the show’s Washington, D.C., tryout. “It’s been really cool to see how focused she has been and how her ego has never gotten in the way,” she says of Fey, who has taught her and her co-stars a lot in this process. “The best idea always wins, and that’s what makes such a successful product.”

Having starred in another teen film-turned-musical, Louderman is no stranger to the anticipation and demands of transforming a beloved story for the stage. “It’s challenging, but also really, really rewarding,” she says, acknowledging that “people have expectations.” But what sets Mean Girls apart from Bring It On, she says, is Fey’s writing. “It’s just so smart, so witty and so funny. You’re getting all your favorite moments from the film.” The same set-ups are there, but the punchlines are different. “She’s changed that. She is still giving you those moments for us to relive, but in a different way, so you’re still surprised.”

Ultimately, for Louderman, being part of the Mean Girls production is “the coolest thing I have ever done,” she says, adding that she’s relishing the opportunity to share the story’s underlying message about female empowerment and support for one another to young people. “I didn’t really realize I would have the opportunity to do that with this show. That has been something that surprised me and feels really good. You’re sort of giving back to society through this fun and witty performance.”

The 2018 Tony Awards hosted by Josh Groban and Sara Bareilles will be handed out live at Radio City Music Hall in New York City on Sunday, June 10, starting at 8 p.m. ET on CBS.

STANDOUT PERFORMANCES ON BROADWAY:

Tonys 2018: The Silent Rise of ‘Children of a Lesser God’ Actress Lauren Ridloff (Exclusive)

Tonys 2018: The Crossroads That Led Nathan Lane to ‘Angels in America’ (Exclusive)

Tonys 2018: Ethan Slater on Bringing SpongeBob to Life on Broadway (Exclusive)

Tonys 2018: Andrew Garfield on the Gift of Performing ‘Angels in America’ (Exclusive)

Tonys 2018: After ‘Game of Thrones,’ Diana Rigg Makes a Celebrated Return to Broadway (Exclusive)

Tonys 2018: Noma Dumezweni Breaks Stereotypes in ‘Harry Potter and the Cursed Child’ (Exclusive)

Tonys 2018: How Grey Henson Made Damian More Than a GBF in ‘Mean Girls’ (Exclusive)

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rollinbrigittenv8 · 7 years

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British Airways Plan to Add ‘Pre-Reclining’ Seats Actually Makes Sense — Airline Innovation Report

British Airways hasn't announced many changes to the A319 interior, pictured here. But it is making some big alternations to its A320 and A321 fleet. Stuart Bailey / British Airways

Skift Take: We all wish British Airways hadn't decided to shrink seat pitch. But once it did so, it was smart to go with so-called pre-reclined seats. When there's so little space between seats, passengers don't need another passenger reclining into them.

— Brian Sumers

The Skift Airline Innovation Report is our weekly newsletter focused on the business of airline innovation. We will look closely at the technological, financial, and design trends at airlines and airports that are driving the next-generation aviation industry.

We also provide insights on developments in passenger experience, ancillary services, revenue management, loyalty, technology, marketing, airport innovation, the competitive landscape, startups, and changing passenger behavior. I write and curate the newsletter, and we send it on Wednesdays. You can find previous issues of the newsletter here.

On a continent where flyers expect many short-haul one-way flights to cost 20 or 30 euros ($24 to $36), if bought in advance, British Airways has a choice. It can ignore budget-conscious passengers and let them continue to defect to Ryanair or EasyJet, or it can lower its costs to compete.

After more than a decade of ignoring them — perhaps hoping they’d go away — British Airways is fighting. That’s bad news for customers, who hate that their beloved brand has removed free food from short-haul flights, and moved to shrink legroom and width on many planes. But it’s probably the only option. Legacy airlines like British Airways still make a significant portion of their revenue from corporate customers, but they can’t ignore everyone else.

This week, another story went viral about the airline’s cost-cutting plans. As it adds seats to some planes — a process known as densification — some aircraft will get seats that do not recline. Or, as an airline spokeswoman put it in an email, the seats “will be pre-reclined at a comfortable angle.”

That British Airways will add seats is not news. The airline long ago told investors it would densify its short-haul fleet, with planes having seat pitch of 29 inches — the same as EasyJet and two inches fewer than Delta Air Lines. The premise is simple: If British Airways adds more seats to each plane, it can charge less money for each ticket, and still profit from each flight.

Predictably, British tabloids have criticized the UK’s flag carrier. But this week, I spoke to a couple of insiders with experience at ultra-discount airlines that use seats that don’t recline. And they told me this is probably good news for the airline and its customers.

Here’s why:

It’s feasible for an airline to offer 29-inch pitch seats that recline. Rouge, Air Canada’s low-cost brand, has 29-inch pitch on its A321s, according to SeatGuru. But that often isn’t so pleasant for customers. In a space that tight, the discount airline insiders said, travelers don’t want to worry about the passenger ahead of them reclining into their lap. Seats that don’t recline, one insider said, are probably “more palatable” to customers than a typical 29-inch pitch seat. As BA’s spokeswoman put it, “This also has the benefit of helping to preserve space for the customer in the seat behind.”

Airlines hate moving parts, and though it seems like seat recline would work via a simple mechanism, it’s not so straightforward. A kid might repeatedly whack the recline button, or an adult might try to force the recline further than it goes. “Those things break a ton,” one insider said. The maintenance can be deferred, so flights wouldn’t be canceled, but broken recline must be fixed at some point.

The insiders say they’ve crunched the numbers and found airlines might gain a small fuel burn savings from seats that don’t recline. Simple seats are generally lighter because they have fewer parts, and a lighter plane is cheaper to operate. Over time, the fuel savings can add up, but the insiders still say maintenance savings are far greater than fuel savings.

The insiders say passengers don’t complain much about the so-called pre-reclined seats. In the beginning, it may come as a surprise to passengers, and some might be upset. But over time, they get used to it.

Do you know more about why an airline would use seats that don’t recline? Let me know via email [[email protected]] or through Twitter. I’m @briansumers.

— Brian Sumers, Airline Business Reporter

Stories of the Week

The Airport of the Future May Evolve From Transport Hub to Attraction: One architect told me he dreams of putting parks, complete with wildlife and plants, into airports. Another said future airports probably won’t need parking garages because we’ll all arrive in driverless cars. A third predicted giant airport check-in lobbies eventually will disappear because travelers won’t need much more than a place to drop bags anymore.

Airlines Turn to Private Messaging to Avoid Social Media Blowups: A few years ago, airline social media teams lived in fear that a celebrity or other influencer would send a viral tweet about the airline. That’s still a concern, but according to Joshua March, co-founder and CEO of Conversocial, many more customers are trying to get issues resolved via private messaging. “If you look at what customers want, they want a quick and easy response,” he told me. “Tweeting publicly was a way to get attention. But people don’t want to complain publicly if they are going to get a response relatively quickly.”

EasyJet Is Transforming the German Market With Launch of Domestic Routes: EasyJet bought some of Air Berlin’s assets in Berlin, allowing it to grow in the German market. It’s hoping to pick up some corporate customers with frequent flights to business destinations, but can it compete with Lufthansa?

JFK Airport’s Terminal Setup Contributed to the Storm-Recovery Fiasco: Most of the world’s airports have lots of “common-use gates” that can be used by any carrier. Not JFK. It operates under a different model, and that has been a big problem over the past week.

Bag Fees Were the Most Successful Airline Business Model Change of the Past Decade: Welcome to Micheline Maynard, an accomplished journalist and author, and former Detroit bureau chief for The New York Times. She’s Skift’s newest aviation contributor. In her first piece, she explores the bag fee phenomenon at U.S. airlines. Amazingly, it has been almost a decade since American Airlines began charging for a first checked bag.

U.S. Travelers Soon Will Need Enhanced IDs to Board Planes — For Real This Time: For more than a decade, we’ve heard some U.S. state IDs might not be sufficient for boarding an airplane. But whenever a deadline has been announced for states to comply, the federal government ends up postponing it. Now, the Trump Administration says it means what it says — soon U.S. travelers will need enhanced IDs to fly. Bloomberg’s Justin Bachman has the story.

United Airlines Fills Out Route Map With 8 New Routes: In late 2016, United President Scott Kirby promised his airline would grow in smaller U.S. cities, where fares are generally higher than in larger cities. This week, United announced a slew of new routes, and there are some unusual ones, including San Francisco to Madison, Wisconsin — a long route on an Embraer E175 regional jet — Denver to Appleton, Wisconsin, and Los Angeles to Eureka, California. If you follow this closely, you know Kirby believed United grew too much on international routes under its previous leadership, and erred by not starting more domestic flights. Ben Mutzabaugh of USA Today has the story.

As Alaska Air Cuts Costs, Employee Discontent Grows and Passenger Loyalty Is at Risk: The Seattle Times reports that many of Alaska Air’s unionized employees are upset with management for being too obsessed with cost cuts. I would have preferred less emphasis on front-line employees for this story, and more about morale at headquarters. But it’s still an interesting read. The takeaway: Mergers are hard.

Rival Airlines Emirates, Etihad Step Closer With Security Pact: The two Gulf airlines will share information and intelligence, according to Reuters. Is this a first step toward a merger?

Boeing 747 Retirement: Farewell to the ‘Queen of the Skies’: CNN’s Jon Ostrower rode on the last U.S. airline Boeing 747 flight. For real this time. There have been lots of “lasts” for United and Delta, the final two U.S. operators of the double-decker plane. But this really was the final one — a ride from Atlanta to Marana, Arizona, “an arid boneyard for stored and cannibalized jetliners.”

Coming Up

I’ll profile two airlines with unusual business models — JetSuiteX on the West Coast, and OneJet, in the East and Midwest.

The airlines don’t love being compared with each other because they have slightly different strategies. JetSuiteX uses private terminals, and it’s willing to launch a route, like Burbank to Oakland, even if Southwest flies it. OneJet uses traditional terminals, and tries to fly routes where there is no competition, such as Pittsburgh to Hartford.

But the basic premise is the same. I spoke to both CEOs this week, and they said they see a niche because major carriers have pulled too much capacity from small- and medium-sized airports. JetSuiteX sees opportunity in places like Santa Barbara and Carlsbad, California, while OneJet sees it in Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and Kansas City.

Both airlines seem to think the Embraer E135 is the right jet for long-term growth. Regional airlines and mainline partners hated the E135 a decade ago, saying the 37-seat jet had poor economics for a typical hub-and-spoke network. But they’re cheap to buy now, and OneJet and JetSuiteX want them. Each is putting 30 seats on the aircraft.

“You are just seeing such extraordinary values in terms of the acquisition prices,” said Matthew Maguire, CEO of OneJet.

What do you think of these two airlines? Do you think they can make it?

Meet Me in San Francisco

Reminder: Skift will hold a free event on January 30 in San Francisco to share our Megatrends — an overview of what we expect for travel in 2018. There will also be refreshments!

It’s at the The Pearl, located at 601 19th Street in San Francisco, and goes from 6 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. I’ll be there, and hope you can join.

Tickets are available here.

Skift Airline Business Reporter Brian Sumers [[email protected]] curates the Skift Airline Innovation Report. Skift emails the newsletter every Wednesday. Have a story idea? Or a juicy news tip? Want to share a memo? Send me an email or tweet me.

Subscribe to the Skift Airline Innovation Report

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