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[muslimjournalist]

The HTS Showdown at Syria

Jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions launched a large-scale attack on Syrian army positions in Aleppo and Idlib provinces, resulting in heavy clashes over the past 24 hours, with a death toll of 132, including 65 HTS fighters and 49 regime troops, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The attack targeted strategic villages near the M5 highway, a key route linking Aleppo and Damascus, prompting intense Russian airstrikes and artillery shelling. Syria's conflict, ongoing since 2011, has claimed over 500,000 lives, with Idlib remaining a contested region despite a fragile ceasefire brokered by Turkey and Russia.

HTS, a dominant force in northwestern Syria, primarily controls Idlib and parts of adjacent Aleppo, Hama, and Latakia provinces. It evolved from Al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate and has sought to distance itself from its jihadist roots to gain broader legitimacy. Despite these efforts, HTS remains designated as a terrorist organization by numerous countries.

Recently, HTS has been engaged in intense clashes with Syrian regime forces, as seen in their latest offensives near Aleppo and Idlib provinces. The group reportedly launched coordinated attacks to seize strategic villages and disrupt critical supply lines, such as the M5 highway linking Aleppo and Damascus. These battles have involved heavy artillery, airstrikes from Russian warplanes, and counteroffensives by Syrian forces. HTS continues to consolidate its control in Idlib while facing resistance from regime forces and internal challenges, including rival factions​

The Final Showdown for HTS?

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is facing intense pressure as battles rage in Syria’s northwestern provinces. The group’s recent offensive against Syrian regime forces underscores its attempt to maintain dominance in Idlib and neighboring regions. However, the escalating violence, heavy airstrikes by Russian forces, and fierce counterattacks from the Syrian army have put HTS in a precarious position.

HTS has strategically targeted vital areas, such as the M5 highway, to disrupt supply routes and expand its influence. Yet, this offensive has come at a heavy cost, with significant casualties and potential backlash from rival factions and international powers. Meanwhile, the broader conflict dynamics—including the lingering presence of ISIS and the Syrian government’s determination to reclaim lost territory—add to the uncertainty of HTS's future.

As HTS battles on multiple fronts, questions arise: Is this the group's last stand, or can it adapt and persevere? Will the organization manage to solidify its control, or is it nearing the end of its tumultuous reign in Syria's complex war? Only time will tell if HTS will thrive or meet its fate.

References Syrian Observatory for Human Rights AFP SANA (Syrian State News Agency) Regional News Outlets – Coverage by Al Jazeera, Reuters, and BBC

[muslimjournalist]

The Return of ISIL: The Resurrection of a Quadranscentennial Dream

In 2014, the world was briefly captivated by a stunning display of ambition: ISIL, or the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, declared itself the caliphate, a political and religious state that sought to revive the long-dormant concept of a unified Muslim empire. For a brief moment, it seemed as though the dream of a global caliphate—a dream cherished by figures like Osama bin Laden and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi—was within reach. Despite their efforts, Bin Laden and Zarqawi had failed to bring their vision to fruition. Yet Baghdadi's rise offered a glimpse into what many had thought was impossible: a state that blended terror, governance, and ideology into a potent force.

But this dream, however fleeting, would prove short-lived. By 2019, ISIL’s so-called caliphate was largely destroyed. Cities like Mosul and Raqqa, once proudly declared capitals of the Islamic State, fell to the military forces of the United States and its allies, marking a supposed end to the terror that had spread across Iraq, Syria, and beyond. The coalition claimed victory, governments hailed the demise of the caliphate, and counterterrorism agencies across the world believed that they had successfully neutralized the threat.

Yet, as we look at the state of global terrorism today, it’s clear that this narrative of victory was not only premature but misleading.

ISIL: A Hydra That Refuses to Die

ISIL, far from being obliterated, has proven to be a hydra-like threat, emerging from the dead when it seemed vanquished. While the territories once controlled by Baghdadi’s group are no longer under their command, the network that ISIL created has proven far more resilient and adaptive than many had imagined. Rather than vanishing, the group has evolved, adapting its methods and expanding its influence to new regions, especially across Africa and Afghanistan.

In Africa, ISIL has found fertile ground in countries like Mozambique, the Sahel, and Somalia. The group's ideology has spread to local affiliates and aligned groups, giving rise to deadly operations that destabilize entire regions. In particular, the Sahel has become a hotbed of ISIL activity, where the group operates alongside other jihadist groups like al-Qaeda, pushing local governments to the brink and drawing in global powers once again. The rise of ISIL affiliates in these regions has been marked by brutal attacks on civilian populations, military forces, and international peacekeepers, destabilizing vast swathes of land across the continent.

In Afghanistan, after the withdrawal of American and NATO forces in 2021, the Taliban’s return to power did not spell the end of ISIL’s presence. Instead, ISIL-Khorasan, the Afghan affiliate of the broader ISIL network, has used the power vacuum left by the Western exit to regain a foothold. Bombings, attacks on civilians, and confrontations with the Taliban have made clear that ISIL’s ambition for a global caliphate is alive and well, and it is using Afghanistan as a launching pad to spread its ideology and operations further.

The Pursuit of the Caliphate: An Unfinished Dream

For all their claims of victory, governments and counterterrorism agencies have fundamentally misjudged the nature of ISIL. They saw the group’s territorial collapse as a definitive end, but ISIL’s leadership always knew that the dream of the caliphate wasn’t dependent on holding territory. Baghdadi’s declaration of the caliphate in 2014 was, in many ways, a symbol—a rallying cry for jihadists across the world. It was a statement of intent, not a claim of permanent territorial control. And even after the caliphate was destroyed, the pursuit of this dream has never ceased.

For Osama bin Laden, the idea of a global caliphate was always a distant and abstract goal, achievable only through long-term guerrilla warfare and radical ideological warfare. Similarly, Zarqawi’s vision of an Islamic state in Iraq remained limited to a more sectarian, regional ambition. Both men were skilled tacticians, but their dreams were constantly thwarted by political, military, and sectarian divisions. However, Baghdadi, in his brief rise to power, managed to capture something that they could not: the concept of a “state” in a world that was increasingly connected and globalized. The dream of the caliphate wasn’t just an ideological tool—it became a concrete, albeit fragile, political entity for a short time.

Now, as ISIL has spread its tentacles into regions like Africa and Afghanistan, that same dream is being carried on by a new generation of jihadists. The idea that the caliphate is not just possible but inevitable has found fertile ground in the chaos of failed states, fractured governments, and insurgent movements. This caliphate dream is not just about conquering territory—it’s about influencing and radicalizing populations across the globe, creating a network that operates both inside and outside of state borders, weaving together a vision of an unbroken, global caliphate through decentralized and deadly means.

The Lies of Counterterrorism: A False Victory

The governments that declared victory over ISIL, the military forces that celebrated the fall of Raqqa, and the intelligence agencies that promised an end to the terror have failed to see that the group’s defeat was never as clear-cut as they claimed. While the territories they held were destroyed, the ideology behind ISIL never went away. If anything, it has only grown more insidious in its spread. Governments and counterterrorism agencies, in their zeal to claim victory and avoid further military entanglements, have painted a picture of an enemy defeated, a narrative that has allowed ISIL to rebuild itself from the shadows.

The resurgence of ISIL in Africa and Afghanistan is a testament to the failure to fully understand the nature of the threat. It wasn’t about eradicating a territorial entity—it was about addressing the deeper, more complex roots of radicalization and the unyielding desire for a global caliphate that remains alive in pockets of the world. The actions of ISIL in the years following the fall of their caliphate illustrate the flaws in the narrative of victory. The terror group has mutated into something even harder to combat—a decentralized ideology that can appear anywhere, taking root in conditions where governments are weak, and conflict is rife.

The Road Ahead: A Renewed Call for Vigilance

As ISIL continues to grow and expand, it serves as a harsh reminder of the dangers of complacency. The dream of a global caliphate may never have been fully realized under Bin Laden or Zarqawi, but under Baghdadi’s leadership, it was given a form that inspired the world. Now, it is emerging again, in new forms and new places, with a renewed sense of purpose. Governments, intelligence agencies, and counterterrorism forces must adapt to this new reality.

The world must recognize that the battle against ISIL is not over. It is an ideological war as much as it is a military one, and the group will continue to exploit weaknesses in states, communities, and global systems.

The caliphate dream is not dead. It’s just been waiting for the right moment to rise again.