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reasonsforhope · 5 months ago

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is, by some measures, the most popular leader in the world. Prior to the 2024 election, his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) held an outright majority in the Lok Sabha (India’s Parliament) — one that was widely projected to grow after the vote count. The party regularly boasted that it would win 400 Lok Sabha seats, easily enough to amend India’s constitution along the party's preferred Hindu nationalist lines.

But when the results were announced on Tuesday, the BJP held just 240 seats. They not only underperformed expectations, they actually lost their parliamentary majority. While Modi will remain prime minister, he will do so at the helm of a coalition government — meaning that he will depend on other parties to stay in office, making it harder to continue his ongoing assault on Indian democracy.

So what happened? Why did Indian voters deal a devastating blow to a prime minister who, by all measures, they mostly seem to like?

India is a massive country — the most populous in the world — and one of the most diverse, making its internal politics exceedingly complicated. A definitive assessment of the election would require granular data on voter breakdown across caste, class, linguistic, religious, age, and gender divides. At present, those numbers don’t exist in sufficient detail.

But after looking at the information that is available and speaking with several leading experts on Indian politics, there are at least three conclusions that I’m comfortable drawing.

First, voters punished Modi for putting his Hindu nationalist agenda ahead of fixing India’s unequal economy. Second, Indian voters had some real concerns about the decline of liberal democracy under BJP rule. Third, the opposition parties waged a smart campaign that took advantage of Modi’s vulnerabilities on the economy and democracy.

Understanding these factors isn’t just important for Indians. The country’s election has some universal lessons for how to beat a would-be authoritarian — ones that Americans especially might want to heed heading into its election in November.

-via Vox, June 7, 2024. Article continues below.

A new (and unequal) economy

Modi’s biggest and most surprising losses came in India’s two most populous states: Uttar Pradesh in the north and Maharashtra in the west. Both states had previously been BJP strongholds — places where the party’s core tactic of pitting the Hindu majority against the Muslim minority had seemingly cemented Hindu support for Modi and his allies.

One prominent Indian analyst, Yogendra Yadav, saw the cracks in advance. Swimming against the tide of Indian media, he correctly predicted that the BJP would fall short of a governing majority.

Traveling through the country, but especially rural Uttar Pradesh, he prophesied “the return of normal politics”: that Indian voters were no longer held spellbound by Modi’s charismatic nationalist appeals and were instead starting to worry about the way politics was affecting their lives.

Yadav’s conclusions derived in no small part from hearing voters’ concerns about the economy. The issue wasn’t GDP growth — India’s is the fastest-growing economy in the world — but rather the distribution of growth’s fruits. While some of Modi’s top allies struck it rich, many ordinary Indians suffered. Nearly half of all Indians between 20 and 24 are unemployed; Indian farmers have repeatedly protested Modi policies that they felt hurt their livelihoods.

“Everyone was talking about price rise, unemployment, the state of public services, the plight of farmers, [and] the struggles of labor,” Yadav wrote...

“We know for sure that Modi’s strongman image and brassy self-confidence were not as popular with voters as the BJP assumed,” says Sadanand Dhume, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who studies India.

The lesson here isn’t that the pocketbook concerns trump identity-based appeals everywhere; recent evidence in wealthier democracies suggests the opposite is true. Rather, it’s that even entrenched reputations of populist leaders are not unshakeable. When they make errors, even some time ago, it’s possible to get voters to remember these mistakes and prioritize them over whatever culture war the populist is peddling at the moment.

Liberalism strikes back

The Indian constitution is a liberal document: It guarantees equality of all citizens and enshrines measures designed to enshrine said equality into law. The signature goal of Modi’s time in power has been to rip this liberal edifice down and replace it with a Hindu nationalist model that pushes non-Hindus to the social margins. In pursuit of this agenda, the BJP has concentrated power in Modi’s hands and undermined key pillars of Indian democracy (like a free press and independent judiciary).

Prior to the election, there was a sense that Indian voters either didn’t much care about the assault on liberal democracy or mostly agreed with it. But the BJP’s surprising underperformance suggests otherwise.

The Hindu, a leading Indian newspaper, published an essential post-election data analysis breaking down what we know about the results. One of the more striking findings is that the opposition parties surged in parliamentary seats reserved for members of “scheduled castes” — the legal term for Dalits, the lowest caste grouping in the Hindu hierarchy.

Caste has long been an essential cleavage in Indian politics, with Dalits typically favoring the left-wing Congress party over the BJP (long seen as an upper-caste party). Under Modi, the BJP had seemingly tamped down on the salience of class by elevating all Hindus — including Dalits — over Muslims. Yet now it’s looking like Dalits were flocking back to Congress and its allies. Why?

According to experts, Dalit voters feared the consequences of a BJP landslide. If Modi’s party achieved its 400-seat target, they’d have more than enough votes to amend India’s constitution. Since the constitution contains several protections designed to promote Dalit equality — including a first-in-the-world affirmative action system — that seemed like a serious threat to the community. It seems, at least based on preliminary data, that they voted accordingly.

The Dalit vote is but one example of the ways in which Modi’s brazen willingness to assail Indian institutions likely alienated voters.

Uttar Pradesh (UP), India’s largest and most electorally important state, was the site of a major BJP anti-Muslim campaign. It unofficially kicked off its campaign in the UP city of Ayodhya earlier this year, during a ceremony celebrating one of Modi’s crowning achievements: the construction of a Hindu temple on the site of a former mosque that had been torn down by Hindu nationalists in 1992.

Yet not only did the BJP lose UP, it specifically lost the constituency — the city of Faizabad — in which the Ayodhya temple is located. It’s as direct an electoral rebuke to BJP ideology as one can imagine.

In Maharashtra, the second largest state, the BJP made a tactical alliance with a local politician, Ajit Pawar, facing serious corruption charges. Voters seemingly punished Modi’s party for turning a blind eye to Pawar’s offenses against the public trust. Across the country, Muslim voters turned out for the opposition to defend their rights against Modi’s attacks.

The global lesson here is clear: Even popular authoritarians can overreach.

By turning “400 seats” into a campaign slogan, an all-but-open signal that he intended to remake the Indian state in his illiberal image, Modi practically rang an alarm bell for constituencies worried about the consequences. So they turned out to stop him en masse.

The BJP’s electoral underperformance is, in no small part, the direct result of their leader’s zealotry going too far.

Return of the Gandhis?

Of course, Modi’s mistakes might not have mattered had his rivals failed to capitalize. The Indian opposition, however, was far more effective than most observers anticipated.

Perhaps most importantly, the many opposition parties coordinated with each other. Forming a united bloc called INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), they worked to make sure they weren’t stealing votes from each other in critical constituencies, positioning INDIA coalition candidates to win straight fights against BJP rivals.

The leading party in the opposition bloc — Congress — was also more put together than people thought. Its most prominent leader, Rahul Gandhi, was widely dismissed as a dilettante nepo baby: a pale imitation of his father Rajiv and grandmother Indira, both former Congress prime ministers. Now his critics are rethinking things.

“I owe Rahul Gandhi an apology because I seriously underestimated him,” says Manjari Miller, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Miller singled out Gandhi’s yatras (marches) across India as a particularly canny tactic. These physically grueling voyages across the length and breadth of India showed that he wasn’t just a privileged son of Indian political royalty, but a politician willing to take risks and meet ordinary Indians where they were. During the yatras, he would meet directly with voters from marginalized groups and rail against Modi’s politics of hate.

“The persona he’s developed — as somebody kind, caring, inclusive, [and] resolute in the face of bullying — has really worked and captured the imagination of younger India,” says Suryanarayan. “If you’ve spent any time on Instagram Reels, [you’ll see] an entire generation now waking up to Rahul Gandhi’s very appealing videos.”

This, too, has a lesson for the rest of the world: Tactical innovation from the opposition matters even in an unfair electoral context.

There is no doubt that, in the past 10 years, the BJP stacked the political deck against its opponents. They consolidated control over large chunks of the national media, changed campaign finance law to favor themselves, suborned the famously independent Indian Electoral Commission, and even intimidated the Supreme Court into letting them get away with it.

The opposition, though, managed to find ways to compete even under unfair circumstances. Strategic coordination between them helped consolidate resources and ameliorate the BJP cash advantage. Direct voter outreach like the yatra helped circumvent BJP dominance in the national media.

To be clear, the opposition still did not win a majority. Modi will have a third term in office, likely thanks in large part to the ways he rigged the system in his favor.

Yet there is no doubt that the opposition deserves to celebrate. Modi’s power has been constrained and the myth of his invincibility wounded, perhaps mortally. Indian voters, like those in Brazil and Poland before them, have dealt a major blow to their homegrown authoritarian faction.

And that is something worth celebrating.

-via Vox, June 7, 2024.

#india #narendra modi #pm modi #modi #bjp #lok sabha elections #rahul gandhi #democracy #2024 elections #authoritarianism #anti authoritarian #good news #hope

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cavenewstimes · 3 hours ago

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Election Results 2024 LIVE Updates: BJP-Led Mahayuti Secures Landslide Victory In Maharashtra, INDIA Bloc Retains Jharkhand

Assembly Election Results 2024: The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led INDIA bloc stormed back to power in Jharkhand. Elections Results 2024 Highlights: The Mahayuti returned to power in Maharashtra on Saturday. Maharashtra, Jharkhand Election Results 2024 Highlights: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Mahayuti alliance secured a landslide victory in Maharashtra, and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha…

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mpsay · 11 hours ago

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Nagpur election results LIVE: The Election Commission has begun counting votes and will announce the results for Katol, Savner, Hingna, Umred, Nagpur South West, Nagpur South, Nagpur East, Nagpur central, Nagpur West, Nagpur North, Kamthi and Ramtek assembly constituencies in Nagpur district of Maharashtra today. These assembly seats are part of the 288 constituencies in Maharashtra for which the vote count is being revealed today, along with the outcome in 81 seats in Jharkhand. Voting for the Maharashtra assembly elections was held on November 20 in a single phase. The election, held on 288 assembly seats, saw a tough contest between the ruling Mahayuti alliance, comprising BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde faction), and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction), and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which includes Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction). Exit polls have predicted a close fight. . . Follow me for more . . Like This Post .

#maharashtra #MaharashtraElection #electionresults #maharashtraelectionresults #electionresults2024 #news #latestnews #breakingnews #maharashtranews #KailashVijayvargiyaNews #kailashvijayvargiya #devendrafadnavis #mumbai #Instagram

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news365timesindia · 14 hours ago

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[ad_1] GG News Bureau Bengaluru, 23rd November. The Congress emerged victorious in all three assembly bypolls in Karnataka, dealing a blow to the BJP and JD(S) while reinforcing its position in the state. The results, declared on Saturday, saw Congress candidates defeating prominent rivals, including close family members of BJP and JD(S) stalwarts. In Shiggaon, Yasir Pathan defeated Bharath Bommai, son of former Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai. Pathan’s win marks a significant upset in Bommai’s stronghold. In Channapatna, BJP turncoat CP Yogeshwara triumphed over JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy’s son with a massive margin. Congress’s Annapoorna Tukaram secured victory in Sandur, defeating BJP’s Bangara Hanumantha by 9,649 votes. Shivakumar Hails “People’s Mandate” Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar celebrated the victories, framing them as a rejection of opposition allegations and a sign of support for Congress’s governance. “This is a message from the people for what Basavaraj Bommai’s government failed to deliver. Only two things work: development and guarantees. The people have spoken, and this is just the beginning. We will return to power in 2028,” Shivakumar said. He further credited the success to Congress’s welfare initiatives, such as the Gruhalakshmi and Gruhajyothi schemes, which he said had a direct impact on people’s lives. “We are spending ₹55,000 crore for development and the welfare of the people. This victory is proof that these initiatives resonate with the masses,” he added. A Blow to the BJP and JD(S) Shivakumar didn’t hold back from taking jabs at the BJP and JD(S), asserting that their attempts to target the Congress leadership had backfired. “Kamala (the BJP’s lotus symbol) should stay in the lake, and the JD(S) plough belongs in the field. The people have rejected the baseless allegations made against Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and other Congress leaders,” he quipped. The loss in Shiggaon is particularly significant for the BJP, as Basavaraj Bommai had earlier expressed confidence in retaining the seat, citing his 36,000-vote margin from the last election. Meanwhile, JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy had campaigned aggressively in Channapatna to secure a win for his son, but the result was a stark setback for the party. The Karnataka bypoll results come amid the announcement of assembly election results in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, as well as bypolls across 48 assembly seats and two Lok Sabha constituencies in 15 states. Early trends in Karnataka had initially shown a lead for the BJP in Shiggaon, but the Congress gained momentum as counting progressed. With this sweep, the Congress not only cements its grip on Karnataka but also sends a signal to the BJP-led NDA and JD(S) alliance ahead of future electoral battles in the state. The post Congress Wins All Three Karnataka Bypolls, DK Shivakumar Calls It “A Message From the People appeared first on Global Governance News- Asia's First Bilingual News portal for Global News and Updates. [ad_2] Source link

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news365times · 14 hours ago

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anjali75837 · 16 hours ago

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#republicworld #Election Results 2024

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maharashtraelctions · 5 days ago

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Maharashtra Unfiltered: Raw Politics, Daily Delivered – 15 November 2024

As Maharashtra gets ready for its assembly elections on November 20, 2024, there is a lot of competition in the political world and big changes are happening. The upcoming elections are not just another election; they are also a turning point in the state’s government, with different groups competing for power against a background of new scandals and policy changes.

Important Political Events

Sharad Pawar’s Views on Government

Sharad Pawar, who is the leader of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), is one of the most important voices in this election period. At a recent campaign event in Chinchwad, Pawar spoke out against the current government, saying that Maharashtra has “fallen into the wrong hands” and that the state’s infrastructure has gotten worse while they’ve been in charge[1, 3]. His comments support a larger story told by opposition parties that want to take advantage of people’s dissatisfaction with the performance of the ruling alliance.

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The BJP’s Big Promises to Help People

In answer to criticism, the Mahayuti alliance, which is led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and includes the BJP, has released an ambitious budget of ₹6.12 lakh crore that includes a lot of welfare programs. Some of these are free LPG tanks for families living below the poverty line and money for women [2, 4]. It looks like the BJP’s plan is a calculated attempt to win back voters’ trust after a disappointing showing in the Lok Sabha. This will likely be a big part of their campaign narrative.

Health as a Key Issue in the Election

These days, health care is one of the most important issues in party platforms. The opposition coalition, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), supports a “Right to Healthcare” policy that would give everyone access to health services[1, 3]. The BJP’s “Mission Swasth Maharashtra” plans to put a lot of money into public health. This shift toward health-focused initiatives shows that public health needs are becoming more apparent after the COVID-19 pandemic, making health care a major problem for voters.

Political Leaders and Groups

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Factional fights within the big parties make things even more complicated in politics. The Shiv Sen is split into two groups, led by Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde. The NCP is also split into two groups, led by Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar[2, 5]. This division could have a big effect on the results of the election as people decide which groups best serve their needs.

Arguments and Points of View

In the middle of these events, there have been controversies about claims that businesses have an effect on political choices. Leaders of the opposition have said that Gautam Adani, a business figure, is trying to change Maharashtra’s politics to benefit the BJP. This suggests that his goals may not align with those of the people of the state[3, 4]. Opposition parties are using this story more and more to try to make the elections seem like a fight against the power of corporations in politics.

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Effects on the Political Scene in Maharashtra

Maharashtra’s politics are about to change a lot because of the upcoming elections. A strong showing by either the Shiv Sena or the NCP could make their coalitions stronger and help them work together better. On the other hand, if the union led by the BJP is able to keep its power, it could keep its supporters stable but also lead to more scrutiny of its track record as a government.

What the voters think about these groups and their leaders will be shown by the polls. Voter turnout is likely to reflect wider societal concerns about the quality of government, economic stability, and issues of social justice, especially for marginalized groups like the Marathas, who have been vocal about their need for reservation policies[1, 2].

Bottom Line

As Maharashtra’s assembly elections get closer, the way that welfare promises, health programs, partisan politics, and claims of corporate influence interact will determine not only the results of the elections but also the state’s future government. This election is very important for Maharashtra’s political prospects because voters have to make tough choices that will have direct effects on their lives.

Citations:

[1] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/maharashtra-political-news

[2] https://indianexpress.com/about/maharashtra-politics/

[3] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/maharashtra-assembly-elections-2024-live-updates/article68868322.ece

[4] https://www.business-standard.com/elections/maharashtra-elections/maharashtra-secured-52-national-investment-under-bjp-says-fadnavis-124111500695_1.html

[5] https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/ajit-pawar-yogi-adityanath-maharashtra-assembly-polls-9662171/lite/

[6] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/topic/maharashtra-politics/news

[7] https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/crowd-of-confusion-on-the-maharashtra-political-scene-polls/article68846189.ece

[8] https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/maharashtra-polls-bollywood-hopes-for-reforms-for-daily-wagers-tax-cuts-124111500699_1.html

#maharashtra political latest news #latest news of maharashtra politics #maharashtra political news #political news marathi #latest political news maharashtra in marathi #political news maharashtra

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growfinityconsulting · 2 years ago

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shaktiknowledgeblog · 2 years ago

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Maharashtra bypolls Live: 6.5% in town at 9 am, 3.52% voting in Chinchwad, learn moment updates Voting is being held for the by-election in the town of Pune district of Maharashtra and the Chinchwad seat। Today’s voting will set the assembly and public assembly in 2024. Image Source: FILE PHOTOVoting for by-elections in Kasba and Chinchwad today Pune: Maharashtra By-Elections Voting for the…

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#Byelection #election results #Elections #india election results #Maharashtra #maharashtra exit Pol #Pune Latest News

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rudrjobdesk · 2 years ago

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Maharashtra MLC Elections Live: विधान परिषद की 10 सीटों के लिए हुई वोटिंग, आज रात ही आएंगे नतीजे

नई दिल्ली: महाराष्ट्र विधान परिषद की 10 सीटों के लिए मतदान (Maharashtra MLC Elections Update) सोमवार को चार बजे संपन्न हो गया. सभी पात्र विधायकों ने अपने मताधिकार का इस्तेमाल किया जिनमें कुछ बीमार विधायक भी थे जिन्हें व्हीलचेयर पर विधानमंडल परि��र में लाया गया. विधान भवन के एक अधिकारी ने बताया कि मतगणना शाम पांच बजे शुरू होगी. मतदान सुबह नौ बजे शुरू हुआ था. राज्य के विधायकों ने एमएलसी चुनाव में…

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citytimestv · 4 years ago

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पंढरपूर मंगळवेढा पोट निवडणूक निकाल 2021

Pandharpur election results 2021सर्व राज्याचे लक्ष लागून असलेल्या पंढरपूर मंगळवेढा पोट निवडणूकीचे निकाल आज येत आहे . या प��टनिवडणुकीमध्ये लढत ही मुख्य दोन पक्षामध्ये होती. भारतीय जनता पक्षाचे समाधान आवताडे व राष्ट्रवादी काँग्रेसचे भगीरथ भालके यांना उमेदवारी होती. या निवडणुकी मध्ये मोठमोठे नेते प्रचाराला उतरले होते. आता प्रर्यंतच्या निकाला नुसार भारतीय जनता पक्षाचे उमेदवार समाधान आवताडे हे 35 व्या…

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#election pandharpur #election results 2021 #Maharashtra #Pandharpur election results #pandharpur live update

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vilaspatelvlogs · 4 years ago

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महाराष्ट्र पंचायत चुनाव: BJP और Shiv Sena के बीच कांटे की टक्कर जारी, 1523 निर्विरोध जीते

महाराष्ट्र पंचायत चुनाव: BJP और Shiv Sena के बीच कांटे की टक्क�� जारी, 1523 निर्विरोध जीते

Maharashtra Panchayat Election Result 15 जनवरी को महाराष्ट्र के 34 जिलों की 12,711 सीटों पर चुनाव हुए थे. इस दौरान हुई वोटों की गिनती आज सुबह से ही जारी है. शुरुआती रुझानों के मुताबिक ही शिवसेना बढ़त बनाए हुए है, लेकिन बीजेपी भी कांटे की टक्कर देती नजर आ रही है. Source link

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bhaskarhindinews · 5 years ago

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Live Updates महाराष्ट्र चुनाव : सभी सीटों पर रूझान आए,एनडीए की सरकार बनना तय

हाईलाइट

महाराष्ट्र में 21 अक्टूबर को डाले गए थे वोट

भाजपा और कांग्रेस के बीच सीधा मुकाबला

महाराष्ट्र विधानसभा चुनाव के नतीजे आज घोषित किए जाएंगे। मतगणना शुरू हो गई है। 21 अक्टूबर को हुए मतदान में 60.46 फीसदी मतदान हुआ। राज्य में बहुमत का आंकड़ा 145 सीटों का है। मतदान के बाद आए एग्जिट पोल नतीजों में तमाम न्यूज चैनल और चुनाव सर्वे एजेंसियों ने भाजपा को प्रचंड बहुमत का अनुमान जताया है। बीजेपी का दावा है कि उसे अकेले 144 सीटें मिल सकती हैं। जबकि बीजेपी-शिवसेना गठबंधन को 212 सीटें मिलने का दावा किया जा रहा है। महाराष्ट्र में राकांपा के लिए विधानसभा चुनाव ��रिणाम महत्वपूर्ण होंगे, जो कांग्रेस का सहयोगी दल है। महाराष्ट्र नवनिर्माण सेना, एआईएमआईएम और वनीत बहुजन अगाड़ी जैसी पार्टियां भी चुनाव मैदान में हैं।

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